Election Prediction

The predicted results in the country, given the National and Regional levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National and Regional Prediction: Conservative short 26 of majority

The prediction was made with the following information about Regional support. The table shows the support levels entered and the difference in swing implied by those levels compared with that inferred from the national support figures (marked 'SD' for swing-difference).

Party	2010 Votes	2010 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	37.0%	307	36.0%	30	37	-7	300
LAB	29.7%	258	32.0%	47	52	-5	253
LIB	23.6%	57	8.0%	0	55	-55	2
UKIP	3.2%	0	0.0%	0	0	+0	0
Green	1.0%	1	0.0%	0	1	-1	0
SNP	1.7%	6	3.8%	37	0	+37	43
PlaidC	0.6%	3	0.6%	0	0	+0	3
Other	3.4%	0	19.7%	31	0	+31	31
N.Ire		18		0	0	+0	18

Area	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	UKIP %	Green %	NAT %	Weight %	CON SD%	LAB SD%	LIB SD%	UKIP SD%	Green SD%	NAT SD%
Scotland	19.0	26.5	3.3	0.0	0.0	44.4	8.5	4.0	-15.2	0.4	2.5	0.3	24.5
North East	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		4.1	-22.4	-44.6	-7.8	0.5	0.7
North West	28.0	44.1	5.8	0.0	0.0		11.3	-1.7	5.8	0.3	-0.0	0.4
Yorks/Humber	34.0	34.8	7.0	0.0	0.0		8.3	2.9	0.6	0.0	0.3	0.1
Wales	25.1	38.5	4.5	0.0	0.0	11.3	5.1	0.4	1.5	0.2	0.7	0.5	0.0
West Midlands	38.1	33.5	5.0	0.0	0.0		9.1	0.4	3.3	0.5	-0.8	0.4
East Midlands	38.1	34.5	5.6	0.0	0.0		7.7	-1.4	4.7	0.7	-0.1	0.4
Anglia	46.5	22.1	7.7	0.0	0.0		9.9	1.3	3.2	-0.3	-1.1	-0.5
South West	42.3	18.0	18.4	0.0	0.0		9.6	1.3	3.2	-0.3	-1.3	-0.2
London	33.5	38.9	6.5	0.0	0.0		11.7	1.0	3.5	0.5	1.4	-0.6
South East	49.0	18.5	11.0	0.0	0.0		14.8	1.5	4.4	1.1	-1.0	-0.5
Average	36.0	32.0	8.0	0.0	0.0		100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

List of predicted seat changes

Seat	County/Area	Predicted Change			MP as at 2010
Aberdeen North	Grampian	SNP	gain from	LAB	Frank Doran
Aberdeen South	Grampian	SNP	gain from	LAB	Anne Begg
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine	Grampian	SNP	gain from	LIB	Sir Robert Smith
Amber Valley	Derbyshire	LAB	gain from	CON	Nigel Mills
Argyll and Bute	Argyll and Bute	SNP	gain from	LIB	Alan Reid
Ayr Carrick and Cumnock	Ayrshire and Lanark	SNP	gain from	LAB	Sandra Osborne
Ayrshire Central	Ayrshire and Lanark	SNP	gain from	LAB	Brian Donohoe
Ayrshire North and Arran	Ayrshire and Lanark	SNP	gain from	LAB	Katy Clark
Bedford	Bedfordshire	LAB	gain from	CON	Richard Fuller
Bermondsey and Old Southwark	Southwark	LAB	gain from	LIB	Simon Hughes
Berwick-upon-Tweed	Northumberland	OTH	gain from	LIB	Alan Beith
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk	Borders	SNP	gain from	LIB	Michael Moore
Birmingham Yardley	Birmingham	LAB	gain from	LIB	John Hemming
Bishop Auckland	Durham	OTH	gain from	LAB	Helen Goodman
Blackpool North and Cleveleys	Lancashire	LAB	gain from	CON	Paul Maynard
Blaydon	Newcastle area	OTH	gain from	LAB	David Anderson
Blyth Valley	Northumberland	OTH	gain from	LAB	Ronnie Campbell
Bradford East	West Yorkshire	LAB	gain from	LIB	David Ward
Brecon and Radnorshire	Powys	CON	gain from	LIB	Roger Williams
Brent Central	Brent	LAB	gain from	LIB	Sarah Teather
Brentford and Isleworth	Hounslow	LAB	gain from	CON	Mary Macleod
Brighton Kemptown	East Sussex	LAB	gain from	CON	Simon Kirby
Brighton Pavilion	East Sussex	LAB	gain from	Green	Caroline Lucas
Bristol West	Bristol area	LAB	gain from	LIB	Stephen Williams
Broxtowe	Nottinghamshire	LAB	gain from	CON	Anna Soubry
Burnley	Lancashire	LAB	gain from	LIB	Gordon Birtwistle
Bury North	Western Manchester	LAB	gain from	CON	David Nuttall
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross	Highland	SNP	gain from	LIB	John Thurso
Cambridge	Cambridgeshire	LAB	gain from	LIB	Julian Huppert
Cardiff Central	South Glamorgan	LAB	gain from	LIB	Jenny Willott
Cardiff North	South Glamorgan	LAB	gain from	CON	Jonathan Evans
Carlisle	Cumbria	LAB	gain from	CON	John Stevenson
Carshalton and Wallington	Sutton	CON	gain from	LIB	Tom Brake
Ceredigion	Dyfed	OTH	gain from	LIB	Mark Williams
Cheadle	Eastern Manchester	CON	gain from	LIB	Mark Hunter
Cheltenham	Gloucestershire	CON	gain from	LIB	Martin Horwood
Chester, City of	Cheshire	LAB	gain from	CON	Stephen Mosley
Chippenham	Wiltshire	CON	gain from	LIB	Duncan Hames
Colchester	Essex	CON	gain from	LIB	Bob Russell
Corby	Northamptonshire	LAB	gain from	CON	Louise Bagshaw
Cornwall North	Cornwall	CON	gain from	LIB	Dan Rogerson
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East	Glasgow area	SNP	gain from	LAB	Gregg McClymont
Darlington	Durham	OTH	gain from	LAB	Jenny Chapman
Devon North	Devon	CON	gain from	LIB	Nick Harvey
Dorset Mid and Poole North	Dorset	CON	gain from	LIB	Annette Brooke
Dumfries and Galloway	Dumfries and Galloway	CON	gain from	LAB	Russell Brown
Dunbartonshire East	Glasgow area	SNP	gain from	LIB	Jo Swinson
Dundee West	Tayside	SNP	gain from	LAB	James McGovern
Dunfermline and West Fife	Fife	SNP	gain from	LAB	Thomas Docherty
Durham North	Durham	OTH	gain from	LAB	Kevan Jones
Durham North West	Durham	OTH	gain from	LAB	Pat Glass
Durham, City of	Durham	OTH	gain from	LAB	Roberta Blackman-Woods
Easington	Durham	OTH	gain from	LAB	Grahame Morris
East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow	Ayrshire and Lanark	SNP	gain from	LAB	Michael McCann
East Lothian	Edinburgh area	SNP	gain from	LAB	Fiona O'Donnell
Eastbourne	East Sussex	CON	gain from	LIB	Stephen Lloyd
Eastleigh	Hampshire	CON	gain from	LIB	Christopher Huhne
Edinburgh East	Edinburgh area	SNP	gain from	LAB	Sheila Gilmore
Edinburgh North and Leith	Edinburgh area	SNP	gain from	LAB	Mark Lazarowicz
Edinburgh South	Edinburgh area	SNP	gain from	LAB	Ian Murray
Edinburgh South West	Edinburgh area	SNP	gain from	LAB	Alistair Darling
Edinburgh West	Edinburgh area	SNP	gain from	LIB	Michael Crockart
Enfield North	Enfield	LAB	gain from	CON	Nick de Bois
Erewash	Derbyshire	LAB	gain from	CON	Jessica Lee
Falkirk	Central	SNP	gain from	LAB	Eric Joyce
Fife North East	Fife	SNP	gain from	LIB	Sir Menzies Campbell
Gateshead	Newcastle area	OTH	gain from	LAB	Ian Mearns
Glasgow Central	Glasgow area	SNP	gain from	LAB	Anas Sarwar
Glasgow North	Glasgow area	SNP	gain from	LAB	Ann McKechin
Glasgow North West	Glasgow area	SNP	gain from	LAB	John Robertson
Glasgow South	Glasgow area	SNP	gain from	LAB	Tom Harris
Gordon	Grampian	SNP	gain from	LIB	Malcolm Bruce
Halesowen and Rowley Regis	Black Country	LAB	gain from	CON	James Morris
Hartlepool	Teesside	OTH	gain from	LAB	Iain Wright
Hastings and Rye	East Sussex	LAB	gain from	CON	Amber Rudd
Hazel Grove	Eastern Manchester	CON	gain from	LIB	Andrew Stunell
Hendon	Barnet	LAB	gain from	CON	Matthew Offord
Hexham	Northumberland	OTH	gain from	CON	Guy Opperman
High Peak	Derbyshire	LAB	gain from	CON	Andrew Bingham
Hornsey and Wood Green	Haringey	LAB	gain from	LIB	Lynne Featherstone
Houghton and Sunderland South	Newcastle area	OTH	gain from	LAB	Bridget Phillipson
Hove	East Sussex	LAB	gain from	CON	Mike Weatherley
Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey	Highland	SNP	gain from	LIB	Danny Alexander
Jarrow	Newcastle area	OTH	gain from	LAB	Stephen Hepburn
Kilmarnock and Loudoun	Ayrshire and Lanark	SNP	gain from	LAB	Cathy Jamieson
Kingston and Surbiton	Kingston Upon Thames	CON	gain from	LIB	Edward Davey
Lanark and Hamilton East	Ayrshire and Lanark	SNP	gain from	LAB	Jimmy Hood
Lancaster and Fleetwood	Lancashire	LAB	gain from	CON	Eric Ollerenshaw
Leeds North West	West Yorkshire	CON	gain from	LIB	Greg Mulholland
Lewes	East Sussex	CON	gain from	LIB	Norman Baker
Lincoln	Lincolnshire	LAB	gain from	CON	Karl McCartney
Linlithgow and East Falkirk	Edinburgh area	SNP	gain from	LAB	Michael Connarty
Livingston	Edinburgh area	SNP	gain from	LAB	Graeme Morrice
Loughborough	Leicestershire	LAB	gain from	CON	Nicky Morgan
Manchester Withington	Central Manchester	LAB	gain from	LIB	John Leech
Middlesbrough	Teesside	OTH	gain from	LAB	Sir Stuart Bell
Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	Teesside	OTH	gain from	LAB	Tom Blenkinsop
Midlothian	Edinburgh area	SNP	gain from	LAB	David Hamilton
Morecambe and Lunesdale	Lancashire	LAB	gain from	CON	David Morris
Newcastle upon Tyne Central	Newcastle area	OTH	gain from	LAB	Chi Onwurah
Newcastle upon Tyne East	Newcastle area	OTH	gain from	LAB	Nick Brown
Newcastle upon Tyne North	Newcastle area	OTH	gain from	LAB	Catherine McKinnell
Norfolk North	Norfolk	CON	gain from	LIB	Norman Lamb
Northampton North	Northamptonshire	LAB	gain from	CON	Michael Ellis
Norwich South	Norfolk	LAB	gain from	LIB	Simon Wright
Ochil and South Perthshire	Central	SNP	gain from	LAB	Gordon Banks
Orkney and Shetland	Orkney and Shetland	SNP	gain from	LIB	Alistair Carmichael
Pendle	Lancashire	LAB	gain from	CON	Andrew Stephenson
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport	Devon	LAB	gain from	CON	Oliver Colvile
Portsmouth South	Hampshire	CON	gain from	LIB	Mike Hancock
Redcar	Teesside	OTH	gain from	LIB	Ian Swales
Ross Skye and Lochaber	Highland	SNP	gain from	LIB	Charles Kennedy
Rossendale and Darwen	Lancashire	LAB	gain from	CON	Jake Berry
Sedgefield	Durham	OTH	gain from	LAB	Phil Wilson
Sheffield Hallam	South Yorkshire	OTH	gain from	LIB	Nick Clegg
Sherwood	Nottinghamshire	LAB	gain from	CON	Mark Spencer
Solihull	Coventry and Solihull	CON	gain from	LIB	Lorely Burt
Somerton and Frome	Somerset	CON	gain from	LIB	David Heath
South Shields	Newcastle area	OTH	gain from	LAB	David Miliband
Southport	Merseyside	CON	gain from	LIB	John Pugh
St Austell and Newquay	Cornwall	CON	gain from	LIB	Stephen Gilbert
St Ives	Cornwall	CON	gain from	LIB	Andrew George
Stirling	Central	SNP	gain from	LAB	Anne McGuire
Stockton North	Teesside	OTH	gain from	LAB	Alex Cunningham
Stockton South	Teesside	OTH	gain from	CON	James Wharton
Stroud	Gloucestershire	LAB	gain from	CON	Neil Carmichael
Sunderland Central	Newcastle area	OTH	gain from	LAB	Julie Elliott
Sutton and Cheam	Sutton	CON	gain from	LIB	Paul Burstow
Taunton Deane	Somerset	CON	gain from	LIB	Jeremy Browne
Thornbury and Yate	Bristol area	CON	gain from	LIB	Steve Webb
Thurrock	Essex	LAB	gain from	CON	Jackie Doyle-Price
Torbay	Devon	CON	gain from	LIB	Adrian Sanders
Twickenham	Richmond Upon Thames	CON	gain from	LIB	Vincent Cable
Tynemouth	Newcastle area	OTH	gain from	LAB	Alan Campbell
Tyneside North	Newcastle area	OTH	gain from	LAB	Mary Glindon
Wansbeck	Northumberland	OTH	gain from	LAB	Ian Lavery
Warrington South	Cheshire	LAB	gain from	CON	David Mowat
Warwickshire North	Warwickshire	LAB	gain from	CON	Dan Byles
Washington and Sunderland West	Newcastle area	OTH	gain from	LAB	Sharon Hodgson
Waveney	Suffolk	LAB	gain from	CON	Peter Aldous
Weaver Vale	Cheshire	LAB	gain from	CON	Graham Evans
Wells	Somerset	CON	gain from	LIB	Tessa Munt
Westmorland and Lonsdale	Cumbria	CON	gain from	LIB	Tim Farron
Wirral West	Merseyside	LAB	gain from	CON	Esther McVey
Wolverhampton South West	Black Country	LAB	gain from	CON	Paul Uppal

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.

User-defined Prediction

National and Regional Prediction: Conservative short 26 of majority

List of predicted seat changes