User-defined Prediction

The predicted Westminster results in Scotland, given the Scottish levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

Scottish Prediction

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 16.7%1 18.0%10+12
LAB 42.0%41 30.0%013-1328
LIB 18.9%11 6.0%011-110
UKIP 0.7%0 5.0%00+00
Green 0.7%0 5.0%00+00
SNP 19.9%6 36.0%230+2329
Other 1.1%0 0.1%00+00

Edit current prediction, make new prediction, or go back to home page.

Table of all seat results in Scotland

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Glasgow North East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 30 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Glasgow North East (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2010ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
SNP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2010
Win
Pred
Win
130Glasgow North EastWillie Bain59,85949.16.454.30.23.93.928.62.70.0LABLAB
229Coatbridge, Chryston and BellshillTom Clarke70,06759.49.252.70.33.73.730.60.00.0LABLAB
328Glasgow EastMargaret Curran61,51652.35.548.00.23.93.337.02.10.0LABLAB
427Glasgow South WestIan Davidson58,18254.67.948.90.34.64.733.70.00.0LABLAB
526GlenrothesLindsay Roy67,89359.78.248.70.24.53.534.80.00.0LABLAB
625Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathGordon Brown73,66562.210.450.70.35.64.029.00.00.0LABLAB
724Dunbartonshire WestGemma Doyle66,08564.08.747.80.25.43.834.10.00.0LABLAB
823Motherwell and WishawFrank Roy66,91858.510.547.60.34.14.133.40.00.0LABLAB
922Rutherglen and Hamilton WestTom Greatrex76,40861.510.847.31.55.44.030.90.00.0LABLAB
1021Airdrie and ShottsPamela Nash62,36457.59.844.90.23.83.837.50.00.0LABLAB
1120Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthDouglas Alexander61,19765.411.246.20.34.24.233.90.00.0LABLAB
1219Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch EastGregg McClymont64,03764.39.444.00.33.93.938.40.00.0LABLAB
1318Glasgow CentralAnas Sarwar60,06250.98.439.24.25.57.435.20.00.0LABLAB
1417Glasgow North WestJohn Robertson60,96858.411.241.13.94.57.032.20.00.0LABLAB
1516InverclydeDavid Cairns59,20963.413.242.82.45.24.032.50.00.0LABLAB
1615Glasgow SouthTom Harris65,02961.712.738.91.44.36.736.00.00.0LABLAB
1714Dunfermline and West FifeThomas Docherty73,76966.48.333.915.76.65.330.30.00.0LABLAB
1713Dundee WestJames McGovern63,01358.910.535.91.24.14.144.20.00.0LABSNP
1813Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthJames Sheridan63,70468.615.841.10.64.14.134.30.00.0LABLAB
1912East Kilbride, Strathaven and LesmahagowMichael McCann76,53466.614.138.70.33.85.837.30.00.0LABLAB
2011Kilmarnock and LoudounCathy Jamieson74,13162.815.139.70.23.33.338.30.00.0LABLAB
2010Linlithgow and East FalkirkMichael Connarty80,90763.613.137.22.03.93.939.90.00.0LABSNP
2010LivingstonGraeme Morrice75,92463.112.035.91.05.24.241.70.00.0LABSNP
2110Glasgow NorthAnn McKechin51,41657.68.632.313.45.38.531.80.00.0LABLAB
219MidlothianDavid Hamilton61,38763.913.134.64.75.25.836.60.00.0LABSNP
229Lanark and Hamilton EastJimmy Hood74,77362.316.237.31.15.44.036.00.00.0LABLAB
228FalkirkEric Joyce81,86962.012.333.40.56.23.744.00.00.0LABSNP
228Edinburgh EastSheila Gilmore60,94165.412.231.36.14.39.536.60.00.0LABSNP
228Aberdeen NorthFrank Doran64,80858.213.732.25.64.64.639.30.00.0LABSNP
228Ayrshire North and ArranKaty Clark74,95361.516.735.00.33.83.940.30.00.0LABSNP
228Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)Angus MacNeil22,26666.15.321.60.23.13.157.29.60.0SNPSNP
238Ayrshire CentralBrian Donohoe68,35264.221.535.21.54.04.033.80.00.0LABLAB
247East LothianFiona O'Donnell73,43866.920.832.44.55.25.831.30.00.0LABLAB
246Edinburgh North and LeithMark Lazarowicz69,20468.416.525.815.05.47.629.70.00.0LABSNP
256Ayr Carrick and CumnockSandra Osborne73,32062.626.634.70.33.63.631.30.00.0LABLAB
265Renfrewshire EastJim Murphy66,24977.331.438.10.34.33.622.30.00.0LABLAB
264Dundee EastStewart Hosie65,47162.016.322.00.74.75.051.40.00.0SNPSNP
264Dunbartonshire EastJo Swinson63,79575.217.022.718.06.55.430.50.00.0LIBSNP
274Edinburgh South WestAlistair Darling66,35968.525.530.75.24.36.228.10.00.0LABLAB
273Ochil and South PerthshireGordon Banks75,11567.221.526.21.25.04.941.20.00.0LABSNP
273StirlingAnne McGuire66,08070.925.129.73.14.75.531.80.00.0LABSNP
273Aberdeen SouthAnne Begg64,03167.222.124.911.65.05.930.40.00.0LABSNP
283Dumfries and GallowayRussell Brown74,58170.032.633.60.34.83.525.30.00.0LABLAB
282Edinburgh SouthIan Murray59,35473.823.023.315.15.07.126.50.00.0LABSNP
282Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossJohn Thurso47,25760.914.613.919.65.75.740.40.00.0LIBSNP
282Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeyDanny Alexander72,52864.915.011.619.26.97.439.90.00.0LIBSNP
282Edinburgh WestMichael Crockart65,16171.324.616.816.35.15.132.10.00.0LIBSNP
282Ross Skye and LochaberCharles Kennedy51,83667.214.05.226.58.08.437.90.00.0LIBSNP
282GordonMalcolm Bruce73,42066.420.29.816.35.26.841.70.00.0LIBSNP
282Orkney and ShetlandAlistair Carmichael33,08558.512.41.132.312.86.534.90.00.0LIBSNP
282Argyll and ButeAlan Reid67,16567.325.412.213.64.96.737.20.00.0LIBSNP
282Fife North EastSir Menzies Campbell62,96963.623.37.021.48.15.534.60.00.0LIBSNP
282MorayAngus Robertson65,92562.227.17.03.16.23.653.00.00.0SNPSNP
292Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleDavid Mundell66,62768.939.217.96.35.55.225.90.00.0CONCON
291AngusMichael Weir62,86360.431.97.10.84.93.352.00.00.0SNPSNP
291Perth and North PerthshirePeter Wishart72,14166.931.66.41.73.63.653.10.00.0SNPSNP
291Banff and BuchanEilidh Whiteford64,30059.831.94.11.13.83.855.30.00.0SNPSNP
291Aberdeenshire West and KincardineSir Robert Smith66,11068.431.83.817.86.15.335.20.00.0LIBSNP
301Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkMichael Moore73,82666.435.40.722.16.75.529.70.00.0LIBCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (14-Mar-2024 12:19, Py3L, sc1)

Pause to inspect. Press Enter to continue...