The table shows all the British general elections since 1900. The "Lib" column includes the original Liberal Party, the Liberal/SDP Alliance and the Liberal Democrats.
| Election Date | Total Seats | Con | Lab | Lib | Oth | ||||
| Votes | Seats | Votes | Seats | Votes | Seats | Votes | Seats | ||
| 24-Oct-1900 | 670 | 51.1 | 402 | 1.8 | 2 | 44.6 | 184 | 2.5 | 82 |
| 7-Feb-1906 | 670 | 43.6 | 157 | 5.9 | 30 | 49.0 | 400 | 1.5 | 83 |
| 9-Feb-1910 | 670 | 46.9 | 273 | 7.7 | 40 | 43.2 | 275 | 2.2 | 82 |
| 19-Dec-1910 | 670 | 46.3 | 272 | 7.2 | 42 | 43.8 | 272 | 2.7 | 84 |
| 14-Dec-1918 | 707 | 38.7 | 383 | 23.7 | 73 | 25.6 | 161 | 12.0 | 90 |
| 15-Nov-1922 | 615 | 38.2 | 345 | 29.5 | 142 | 29.1 | 116 | 3.2 | 12 |
| 6-Dec-1923 | 615 | 38.1 | 258 | 30.5 | 191 | 29.6 | 159 | 1.8 | 7 |
| 29-Oct-1924 | 615 | 48.3 | 419 | 33.0 | 151 | 17.6 | 40 | 1.1 | 5 |
| 30-May-1929 | 615 | 38.2 | 260 | 37.1 | 288 | 23.4 | 59 | 1.3 | 8 |
| 27-Oct-1931 | 615 | 60.6 | 521 | 30.6 | 52 | 7.0 | 37 | 1.7 | 5 |
| 14-Nov-1935 | 615 | 53.7 | 432 | 37.9 | 154 | 6.4 | 20 | 2.0 | 9 |
| 5-Jul-1945 | 640 | 39.8 | 213 | 47.8 | 393 | 9.0 | 12 | 3.4 | 22 |
| 23-Feb-1950 | 625 | 43.5 | 298 | 46.1 | 315 | 9.1 | 9 | 1.3 | 3 |
| 25-Oct-1951 | 625 | 48.0 | 321 | 48.7 | 295 | 2.5 | 6 | 0.7 | 3 |
| 25-May-1955 | 630 | 49.8 | 344 | 46.3 | 277 | 2.7 | 6 | 1.2 | 3 |
| 8-Oct-1959 | 630 | 49.4 | 365 | 43.8 | 258 | 5.9 | 6 | 0.9 | 1 |
| 15-Oct-1964 | 630 | 43.4 | 303 | 44.2 | 317 | 11.1 | 9 | 1.3 | 1 |
| 31-Mar-1966 | 630 | 41.9 | 253 | 47.9 | 363 | 8.5 | 12 | 1.7 | 2 |
| 18-Jun-1970 | 630 | 46.4 | 330 | 43.0 | 288 | 7.5 | 6 | 3.1 | 6 |
| 28-Feb-1974 | 635 | 38.2 | 297 | 37.2 | 301 | 19.3 | 14 | 5.3 | 23 |
| 10-Oct-1974 | 635 | 35.8 | 277 | 39.3 | 319 | 18.3 | 13 | 6.6 | 26 |
| 3-May-1979 | 635 | 43.9 | 339 | 36.9 | 268 | 13.8 | 11 | 5.4 | 17 |
| 9-Jun-1983 | 650 | 42.4 | 397 | 27.6 | 209 | 25.4 | 23 | 4.6 | 21 |
| 11-Jun-1987 | 650 | 43.3 | 376 | 31.5 | 229 | 23.1 | 22 | 2.1 | 23 |
| 9-Apr-1992 | 651 | 42.8 | 336 | 35.2 | 271 | 18.3 | 20 | 3.7 | 24 |
| 1-May-1997 | 659 | 30.7 | 165 | 43.2 | 419 | 16.8 | 46 | 9.4 | 29 |
| 7-Jun-2001 | 659 | 31.7 | 166 | 40.7 | 413 | 18.3 | 52 | 9.4 | 28 |
| 5-May-2005 | 645 | 32.3 | 198 | 35.2 | 356 | 22.1 | 62 | 10.4 | 29 |
Source: British Political Facts 1900-1994, David Butler and Gareth Butler, Macmillan (1994).
With corrections.
Labour's poll standing slumped to within less than 1% of the their
support in 1992 (when they lost), but they were still more popular than
the Conservatives, so won more seats. Their majority would have been
greater except that there seemed to have been "tactical unwind" of
Liberal Democrat supporters refusing again to vote tactically for Labour.
Electoral Calculus predicted the winner correctly, but overestimated
the majority. This was caused both by opinion poll error, regional swing
and local factors.
See the Track Record of the Electoral Calculus
site since 1992.
Prior to the election campaign, there was a popular perception that
Labour would indeed win, but with a significantly reduced majority. A figure
of 100 seats was frequently mentioned.
Readers of this site would have seen a very different story - we were
predicting a large majority for Labour even before the start of the campaign.
The news was broken to the rest of the nation by The Sun newspaper on 3 May 2001,
which predicted a majority in excess of 200.
In the event, Labour's majority did decrease, but only by 12 seats, to 167. Their
share of the popular vote declined by two points to 42%.
This time, the pollsters did not get it exactly correct. Their
final polls forecast
a Labour lead over the Conservatives of 16%, but in the event the actual margin
was only 9%. Although this was about 4% lower than in 1997, it did not translate
into very many seats changing hands. This may have been due to differential turnout
(Labour voters in safe seats staying at home) and tactical voting.
However that majority was bought with a modest share of the popular vote -
Labour won a majority of 179 with 44% of the votes.
Although this victory was striking, it was possible to predict it in advance.
Unlike the Conservative victory in 1992, when the professional pollsters
mis-estimated the swing by 9%, this
time the campaign and exit polls were pretty accurate. It was possible to predict
the size of the Labour victory from the polls and an analysis of each constituency.
Using these techniques, I publicly predicted the result of the 1997 election as a Labour
majority of 180 (Cambridge Evening News 30 April 1997, and
BBC Radio Cambridgeshire 1 May 1997). Although the analysis is not complex,
the result nevertheless came as a surprise to many people. It needn't have.
The best scientific answer to these questions will come from the opinion polls.
In the period after the last election, there will probably not be much opinion polling
published. As polls are produced, you can see a history of
new opinion polls.
As they are published in the months ahead, you can use them to give a guide to
the majority, using our make your own prediction feature, or
the Battlemap tool.
The 2005 Election
The last election returned the Labour party for a third term in power,
but with a majority of 66, down from 167.
The 2001 Election
The 2001 election confirmed the Labour party in power with another
striking majority.
The 1997 Election
The 1997 election marked the first
election of a Labour government for over 20 years, and with a large majority in
excess of anything seen in recent times.
The Next Election
Before the votes are cast and counted, it is not possible to state
with accuracy how the public's view of the parties will develop.
Will Labour continue to lose support to the other parties ?
Will the Conservatives improve ? Can the Liberal Democrats become the opposition ?
©Martin Baxter.