Scottish Opinion Polls

Recent Scottish opinion polls

Scottish Opinion Polls From 2015

Scottish opinion polls (Westminster voting intention) since the May 2015 general election are listed here

PollsterSample datesSample sizeCON%LAB%LIB%UKIP%Green%SNP%
ELECTION 20157 May 201514.924.
General Election07 May 2015 - 07 May 20151,000152482150
AVERAGE07 May 2015 - 07 May 20151,00014.924.3 7.5 1.6 1.350.0

As further Scottish polls are published, they will be shown here.

Predicted Election Result

On this data the number of seats won in Scotland would be

CON 1 (+0), LAB 1 (+0), LIB 1 (+0), UKIP 0 (+0), Green 0 (+0), SNP 56 (+0).

You can see more details of predicted Scottish seats for East Scotland and West Scotland, plus full constituency details for all Scotland.

Aggregated polls

Sometimes there has been a dearth of Scotland-only polls of Westminster voting intention. To make an estimate of Scottish voting intention, the opinion poll data above now includes "aggregated polls". These are based on the daily YouGov polling for the Sun and the Sunday Times. These polls are nationwide, but they contain a separately-reported Scottish component. The Scottish sample size of each individual poll is small (around 150 voters), which is not usable in isolation. However, if we add up all the Scottish components over a full month, the total sample size is around 1,500 voters which is a usable total. Because the YouGov methodology is constant, the individual Scottish samples should be consistent and able to be aggregated.

This methodology was approximately correct at the May 2015 general election, though it overstated Labour and the minor parties and understated the SNP. So the aggregated polls may not be as accurate as pure Scotland-only polls, but they seem a reasonable second-best indicator in the absence of proper polling.

© Martin Baxter