Northern Ireland: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in Northern Ireland sorted by the predicted difference between Sinn Fein and Democratic Unionist votes. The safest Sinn Fein seat, Fermanagh and South Tyrone, is at the top, and the strongest Democratic Unionist seat, Belfast East, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'SF Seats' and 'DUP Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 10 seats to have a majority. So Sinn Fein needs to win all the seats down to Londonderry East (prediction: DUP), and the Democratic Unionists need to win all their seats up to Down South (prediction: SF).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Northern Ireland seats with predictions

SF
Seats
DUP
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
UUP
%
SDLP
%
DUP
%
Green
%
SF
%
Alliance
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
115Fermanagh and South Tyrone Michelle Gildernew70,60175.835.114.50.00.036.410.30.03.8SFSF
214Belfast West Paul Maskey62,42365.10.011.217.30.053.48.37.02.8SFSF
313Ulster Mid Francie Molloy68,48568.23.115.421.30.045.411.00.03.9SFSF
412Newry and Armagh Mickey Brady78,26668.510.019.717.30.041.46.90.04.7SFSF
511Tyrone West Barry McElduff64,00967.94.113.923.30.040.412.40.06.0SFSF
610Down South Chris Hazzard75,68567.25.124.620.30.036.411.70.02.0SFSF
79Foyle Elisha McCallion70,32465.40.132.321.30.033.48.31.03.8SFSF
88Belfast North Nigel Dodds68,24967.30.00.044.40.034.321.30.00.0DUPDUP
97Upper Bann David Simpson80,16863.913.711.836.80.024.613.10.00.0DUPDUP
106Londonderry East Gregory Campbell67,03861.26.19.237.20.021.413.10.013.1DUPDUP
115Antrim South Paul Girvan68,24463.313.711.133.80.014.926.50.00.0DUPDUP
114Belfast South Emma Little Pengelly66,10566.16.629.120.30.00.037.70.06.4DUPAlliance
124Antrim North Ian Paisley75,65764.111.913.836.30.011.517.90.08.8DUPDUP
133Antrim East Sammy Wilson62,90860.617.17.635.30.07.324.80.08.0DUPDUP
132Down North Lady Sylvia Hermon64,33460.920.20.031.30.00.038.00.010.6MINAlliance
142Lagan Valley Jeffrey Donaldson72,38062.112.19.341.30.03.727.80.05.9DUPDUP
151Strangford Jim Shannon64,32760.212.19.241.30.02.826.80.07.9DUPDUP
150Belfast East Gavin Robinson63,49567.59.40.044.40.00.046.20.00.0DUPAlliance

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.