Northern Ireland: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in Northern Ireland sorted by the predicted difference between Sinn Fein and Democratic Unionist votes. The safest Sinn Fein seat, Belfast West, is at the top, and the strongest Democratic Unionist seat, Strangford, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'SF Seats' and 'DUP Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 10 seats to have a majority. So Sinn Fein needs to win all the seats down to Londonderry East (prediction: DUP), and the Democratic Unionists need to win all their seats up to Belfast North (prediction: DUP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Northern Ireland seats with predictions

SF
Seats
DUP
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
UUP
%
SDLP
%
DUP
%
Green
%
SF
%
Alliance
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
116Belfast West Paul Maskey62,42365.10.09.58.30.060.76.78.26.6SFSF
215Fermanagh and South Tyrone Michelle Gildernew70,60175.840.46.20.00.046.34.50.02.6SFSF
314Down South Chris Hazzard75,68567.25.329.810.80.041.69.20.03.2SFSF
413Ulster Mid Francie Molloy68,48568.28.112.219.00.048.68.50.03.6SFSF
512Tyrone West Barry McElduff64,00967.96.715.218.60.843.78.20.06.8SFSF
511Foyle Elisha McCallion70,32465.44.438.49.70.034.77.02.33.4SFSDLP
611Newry and Armagh Mickey Brady78,26668.59.919.516.80.041.88.50.03.5SFSF
710Belfast North Nigel Dodds68,24967.30.00.043.10.039.817.10.00.0DUPDUP
89Upper Bann David Simpson80,16863.917.911.538.40.021.211.10.00.0DUPDUP
98Antrim South Paul Girvan68,24463.321.68.031.70.012.925.90.00.0DUPDUP
107Londonderry East Gregory Campbell67,03861.29.113.039.70.019.512.00.06.6DUPDUP
106Belfast South Emma Little Pengelly66,10566.15.734.426.10.00.026.50.07.3DUPSDLP
116Antrim North Ian Paisley75,65764.110.39.251.60.011.514.20.03.2DUPDUP
125Down North Lady Sylvia Hermon64,33460.94.00.040.20.00.040.00.015.8MINDUP
134Antrim East Sammy Wilson62,90860.612.95.049.00.06.319.90.06.9DUPDUP
143Belfast East Gavin Robinson63,49567.55.20.048.30.00.046.60.00.0DUPDUP
152Lagan Valley Jeffrey Donaldson72,38062.117.68.951.20.02.414.80.05.1DUPDUP
161Strangford Jim Shannon64,32760.212.37.653.71.21.918.20.05.2DUPDUP

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.