Northern Ireland: Majority Sorted Seats

This page shows all the seats in Northern Ireland sorted by the predicted difference between Sinn Fein and Democratic Unionist votes. The safest Sinn Fein seat, Fermanagh and South Tyrone, is at the top, and the strongest Democratic Unionist seat, Belfast East, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'SF Seats' and 'DUP Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 10 seats to have a majority. So Sinn Fein needs to win all the seats down to Londonderry East (prediction: DUP), and the Democratic Unionists need to win all their seats up to Down South (prediction: SF).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Northern Ireland seats with predictions

SF
Seats
DUP
Seats
SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
Out%
UUP
%
SDLP
%
DUP
%
Alliance
%
Green
%
SF
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2019
Win
Pred
Win
115Fermanagh and South Tyrone Michelle Gildernew72,84869.743.26.80.05.20.043.30.01.4SFSF
214Belfast West Paul Maskey65,64459.10.17.813.54.90.053.916.03.9SFSF
313Ulster Mid Francie Molloy70,44963.35.914.324.57.90.045.90.01.4SFSF
412Newry and Armagh Mickey Brady81,22662.58.318.721.78.30.040.00.03.0SFSF
511Tyrone West Órfhlaith Begley66,25962.26.817.922.19.71.040.30.02.2SFSF
610Down South Chris Hazzard79,17562.96.729.215.413.90.032.50.02.4SFSF
69Foyle Colum Eastwood74,34663.42.457.110.22.70.020.84.32.6SDLPSDLP
79Belfast North John Finucane72,22567.90.00.043.19.80.047.10.00.0SFSF
88Upper Bann Carla Lockhart82,88760.412.49.241.012.90.024.60.00.0DUPDUP
97Antrim South Paul Girvan71,71159.929.05.335.319.10.011.40.00.0DUPDUP
106Londonderry East Gregory Campbell69,24656.89.215.740.215.10.015.70.04.1DUPDUP
105Belfast South Claire Hanna69,98467.72.757.224.714.30.00.00.01.1SDLPSDLP
115Antrim North Ian Paisley77,13457.118.56.747.414.10.012.80.00.5DUPDUP
114Down North Stephen Farry67,09960.612.20.137.945.20.00.10.04.5AllianceAlliance
124Antrim East Sammy Wilson64,83057.514.82.545.427.31.55.80.02.6DUPDUP
133Lagan Valley Jeffrey Donaldson75,73560.019.03.943.228.80.02.50.02.6DUPDUP
142Strangford Jim Shannon66,92856.010.95.547.428.41.71.60.04.4DUPDUP
151Belfast East Gavin Robinson66,24564.15.90.049.244.90.00.00.00.0DUPDUP

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.