| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 12.7% | 5 | 11.5% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| LAB | 35.3% | 37 | 17.0% | 0 | 34 | -34 | 3 |
| LIB | 9.7% | 6 | 9.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 6 |
| Reform | 7.0% | 0 | 21.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Green | 3.8% | 0 | 7.5% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| SNP | 30.0% | 9 | 31.5% | 35 | 0 | +35 | 44 |
| Other | 1.5% | 0 | 2.5% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Edinburgh South' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Aberdeen North', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Aberdeen North (prediction: SNP), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Dunbartonshire West (prediction: SNP).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | SNP % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 352 | Edinburgh South | Ian Murray | 70,839 | 66.1 | 7.4 | 28.5 | 5.3 | 22.9 | 13.9 | 18.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 42 | 340 | Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) | Torcuil Crichton | 21,235 | 63.7 | 5.0 | 26.2 | 3.2 | 22.4 | 5.4 | 23.6 | 1.9 | 12.3 | LAB | LAB |
| 48 | 333 | Rutherglen | Michael Shanks | 72,674 | 58.5 | 5.2 | 26.7 | 4.0 | 24.0 | 4.5 | 31.6 | 2.0 | 2.1 | LAB | SNP |
| 49 | 332 | Glasgow West | Patricia Ferguson | 69,028 | 57.8 | 3.8 | 24.1 | 3.5 | 21.7 | 12.8 | 31.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | LAB | SNP |
| 51 | 330 | Coatbridge and Bellshill | Frank McNally | 72,667 | 53.3 | 3.3 | 26.1 | 2.5 | 23.8 | 6.9 | 34.6 | 1.9 | 1.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 55 | 326 | Edinburgh North and Leith | Tracy Gilbert | 78,411 | 63.1 | 5.9 | 21.3 | 6.4 | 19.3 | 15.3 | 29.1 | 1.8 | 0.9 | LAB | SNP |
| 55 | 326 | Glasgow South | Gordon McKee | 70,219 | 60.4 | 3.6 | 21.0 | 3.2 | 19.1 | 16.8 | 33.3 | 1.7 | 1.3 | LAB | SNP |
| 55 | 326 | Dunbartonshire West | Douglas McAllister | 69,074 | 57.3 | 3.3 | 25.4 | 2.7 | 23.9 | 7.4 | 34.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | LAB | SNP |
| 56 | 325 | Airdrie and Shotts | Kenneth Stevenson | 70,199 | 52.2 | 4.2 | 27.2 | 2.7 | 25.8 | 4.1 | 32.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | LAB | SNP |
| 56 | 325 | Glasgow North | Martin Rhodes | 67,579 | 51.4 | 3.6 | 21.3 | 3.4 | 19.9 | 15.8 | 33.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 57 | 325 | Lothian East | Douglas Alexander | 75,456 | 63.7 | 9.8 | 25.7 | 5.0 | 24.4 | 9.4 | 22.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 57 | 324 | Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West | Martin McCluskey | 70,124 | 57.5 | 6.1 | 24.3 | 3.4 | 23.1 | 7.0 | 32.6 | 1.9 | 1.6 | LAB | SNP |
| 61 | 320 | Glasgow North East | Maureen Burke | 72,610 | 47.0 | 3.3 | 23.6 | 2.4 | 22.7 | 11.0 | 33.6 | 1.8 | 1.6 | LAB | SNP |
| 61 | 320 | Renfrewshire East | Blair McDougall | 73,380 | 68.4 | 15.1 | 22.2 | 2.8 | 21.4 | 6.9 | 28.3 | 1.9 | 1.5 | LAB | SNP |
| 63 | 318 | Edinburgh East and Musselburgh | Chris Murray | 76,188 | 59.8 | 4.9 | 20.6 | 4.0 | 19.9 | 13.9 | 34.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | LAB | SNP |
| 63 | 318 | Paisley and Renfrewshire South | Johanna Baxter | 71,574 | 57.7 | 4.7 | 24.6 | 3.4 | 24.0 | 7.9 | 32.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | LAB | SNP |
| 63 | 318 | East Kilbride and Strathaven | Joani Reid | 76,415 | 61.1 | 6.3 | 25.3 | 2.9 | 24.7 | 7.6 | 30.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | LAB | SNP |
| 63 | 318 | Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke | Pamela Nash | 71,777 | 54.4 | 5.2 | 25.6 | 2.8 | 25.1 | 6.7 | 32.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | LAB | SNP |
| 63 | 318 | Midlothian | Kirsty McNeill | 73,916 | 59.8 | 6.3 | 25.4 | 5.2 | 24.9 | 4.1 | 31.6 | 1.9 | 0.4 | LAB | SNP |
| 64 | 317 | Dunfermline and Dollar | Graeme Downie | 72,824 | 61.2 | 6.5 | 23.6 | 6.0 | 23.2 | 9.0 | 28.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | LAB | SNP |
| 64 | 317 | Glasgow South West | Zubir Ahmed | 68,871 | 51.8 | 3.5 | 22.1 | 3.0 | 21.8 | 11.2 | 35.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | LAB | SNP |
| 65 | 316 | Hamilton and Clyde Valley | Imogen Walker | 75,480 | 55.8 | 9.0 | 26.2 | 3.8 | 26.2 | 3.9 | 28.7 | 2.0 | 0.3 | LAB | SNP |
| 65 | 316 | Edinburgh South West | Scott Arthur | 73,784 | 61.9 | 10.5 | 20.5 | 5.6 | 20.5 | 11.6 | 28.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | LAB | SNP |
| 65 | 316 | Glasgow East | John Grady | 68,988 | 51.4 | 4.2 | 22.3 | 2.9 | 22.5 | 11.2 | 34.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 | LAB | SNP |
| 65 | 316 | Paisley and Renfrewshire North | Alison Suzanne Watt Taylor | 71,103 | 58.4 | 5.3 | 24.4 | 3.5 | 24.7 | 7.1 | 33.0 | 1.9 | 0.1 | LAB | SNP |
| 69 | 312 | Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch | Katrina Murray | 70,350 | 58.2 | 4.1 | 23.1 | 3.4 | 23.8 | 7.6 | 36.1 | 1.8 | 0.1 | LAB | SNP |
| 71 | 310 | Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy | Melanie Ward | 71,845 | 56.8 | 6.7 | 23.6 | 3.9 | 24.5 | 8.0 | 29.6 | 1.9 | 1.8 | LAB | SNP |
| 71 | 310 | Bathgate and Linlithgow | Kirsteen Sullivan | 72,185 | 58.3 | 6.4 | 24.4 | 4.7 | 25.5 | 7.4 | 28.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | LAB | SNP |
| 73 | 308 | Dundee Central | Chris Law | 74,221 | 52.3 | 4.2 | 19.0 | 5.2 | 20.3 | 4.6 | 42.1 | 1.6 | 3.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 74 | 307 | Kilmarnock and Loudoun | Lillian Jones | 74,628 | 56.9 | 6.7 | 22.9 | 2.6 | 24.9 | 6.5 | 33.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | LAB | SNP |
| 75 | 306 | Falkirk | Euan Stainbank | 73,584 | 57.9 | 7.0 | 21.8 | 3.0 | 24.1 | 7.9 | 32.7 | 1.8 | 1.6 | LAB | SNP |
| 79 | 302 | Ayrshire Central | Alan Gemmell | 69,413 | 59.7 | 12.9 | 22.2 | 2.9 | 24.9 | 6.2 | 28.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | LAB | SNP |
| 82 | 299 | Alloa and Grangemouth | Brian Leishman | 70,680 | 58.3 | 6.6 | 22.4 | 3.1 | 25.5 | 7.6 | 30.6 | 1.8 | 2.4 | LAB | SNP |
| 82 | 299 | Glenrothes and Mid Fife | Richard Baker | 70,655 | 51.1 | 4.7 | 22.6 | 4.2 | 25.8 | 3.6 | 37.3 | 1.8 | 0.1 | LAB | SNP |
| 88 | 293 | Livingston | Gregor Poynton | 78,043 | 57.5 | 6.5 | 20.4 | 4.2 | 24.4 | 7.6 | 34.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | LAB | SNP |
| 88 | 293 | Ayrshire North and Arran | Irene Campbell | 72,176 | 58.6 | 12.1 | 19.7 | 2.8 | 23.8 | 6.6 | 32.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | LAB | SNP |
| 91 | 290 | Stirling and Strathallan | Chris Kane | 76,284 | 65.3 | 17.1 | 15.9 | 4.5 | 20.5 | 8.1 | 32.3 | 1.6 | 0.1 | LAB | SNP |
| 108 | 273 | Perth and Kinross-shire | Pete Wishart | 77,261 | 64.8 | 37.1 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 46.6 | 1.2 | 0.8 | SNP | SNP |
| 108 | 273 | Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock | Elaine Stewart | 70,340 | 58.2 | 20.6 | 17.6 | 2.9 | 23.5 | 5.5 | 27.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | LAB | SNP |
| 115 | 266 | Angus and Perthshire Glens | Dave Doogan | 76,668 | 61.8 | 36.9 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 47.8 | 1.1 | 0.9 | SNP | SNP |
| 116 | 265 | Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey | Graham Leadbitter | 77,072 | 60.4 | 38.2 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 41.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | SNP | SNP |
| 117 | 264 | Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk | John Lamont | 76,438 | 60.9 | 47.6 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 33.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | CON | CON |
| 117 | 264 | Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine | Andrew Campbell Bowie | 72,994 | 67.1 | 44.4 | 0.7 | 3.7 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 37.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | CON | CON |
| 119 | 262 | Fife North East | Wendy Chamberlain | 69,762 | 61.2 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 57.6 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 26.4 | 0.8 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 122 | 259 | Dunbartonshire Mid | Susan Murray | 73,596 | 71.7 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 50.1 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 30.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | LIB | LIB |
| 126 | 255 | Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross | Jamie Stone | 74,627 | 61.7 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 52.4 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 30.2 | 0.6 | 1.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 126 | 255 | Edinburgh West | Christine Anne Jardine | 76,490 | 68.6 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 54.0 | 9.3 | 7.3 | 23.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | LIB | LIB |
| 126 | 255 | Gordon and Buchan | Harriet Cross | 69,605 | 63.0 | 43.1 | 0.3 | 4.9 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 39.7 | 1.0 | 0.1 | CON | CON |
| 131 | 250 | Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire | Angus MacDonald | 77,927 | 61.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 43.0 | 8.6 | 7.3 | 37.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | LIB | LIB |
| 140 | 241 | Aberdeen South | Stephen Flynn | 77,328 | 59.9 | 22.7 | 10.1 | 5.1 | 18.7 | 6.9 | 34.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 | SNP | SNP |
| 155 | 226 | Dumfries and Galloway | John Cooper | 78,541 | 58.3 | 30.5 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 18.7 | 5.8 | 31.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | CON | SNP |
| 160 | 221 | Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale | David Mundell | 71,900 | 61.5 | 33.8 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 18.4 | 6.6 | 27.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | CON | CON |
| 162 | 219 | Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber | Brendan O'Hara | 71,756 | 62.5 | 19.4 | 6.6 | 14.3 | 17.1 | 3.7 | 36.5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | SNP | SNP |
| 166 | 215 | Orkney and Shetland | Alistair Carmichael | 34,236 | 60.4 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 53.6 | 11.1 | 12.4 | 19.3 | 0.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 198 | 183 | Aberdeenshire North and Moray East | Seamus Logan | 70,058 | 54.5 | 38.1 | 0.4 | 3.0 | 14.3 | 2.8 | 40.5 | 0.9 | 0.1 | SNP | SNP |
| 212 | 169 | Arbroath and Broughty Ferry | Stephen Patrick Gethins | 76,149 | 57.9 | 10.3 | 11.4 | 3.6 | 26.3 | 3.8 | 41.8 | 1.6 | 1.2 | SNP | SNP |
| 288 | 93 | Aberdeen North | Kirsty Blackman | 75,925 | 55.4 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 28.1 | 7.0 | 44.2 | 1.5 | 1.7 | SNP | SNP |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.