Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 28.5%01-112
LAB 27.1%7 18.0%05-52
LIB 6.8%4 11.0%00+04
Brexit 0.0%0 0.0%00+00
Green 0.2%0 1.0%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 41.5%60+641
UKIP 0.2%0 0.0%00+00
Other 0.3%0 0.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Stirling (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Green
%
SNP
%
UKIP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
57517Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Lesley Laird72,72163.523.650.525.00.90.00.00.00.0LABLAB
67507Edinburgh South Ian Murray64,55374.119.644.87.40.827.40.00.00.0LABLAB
91482Glasgow North East Paul Sweeney59,93253.012.833.26.70.047.30.00.00.0LABSNP
118455Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Hugh Gaffney71,19863.316.232.56.60.844.00.00.00.0LABSNP
125448Glasgow South West Chris Stephens62,99156.215.530.97.20.046.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
128445Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss64,34655.913.928.37.40.849.60.00.00.0SNPSNP
156417Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty67,60265.217.127.66.80.847.70.00.00.0SNPSNP
157416Glasgow East David Linden66,24254.618.729.07.30.045.00.00.00.0SNPSNP
162411Glasgow North Patrick Grady53,86362.114.724.47.910.542.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
172401Rutherglen and Hamilton West Ged Killen80,09863.519.427.99.70.043.00.00.00.0LABSNP
172401Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan63,77360.917.926.28.20.047.60.00.00.0SNPSNP
175398Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows68,21561.520.128.17.50.044.30.00.00.0SNPSNP
176397Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,30169.616.424.16.40.045.70.07.50.0SNPSNP
181392Glasgow South Stewart McDonald69,12664.419.026.47.80.846.00.00.00.0SNPSNP
181392Dundee West Chris Law62,64461.716.123.48.20.052.30.00.00.0SNPSNP
187386Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan58,85366.421.427.87.20.043.60.00.00.0SNPSNP
193380Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald66,55465.918.224.38.10.049.40.00.00.0SNPSNP
193380Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard65,89666.018.524.68.80.847.40.00.00.0SNPSNP
197376Glenrothes Peter Grant66,37860.919.425.07.70.047.90.00.00.0SNPSNP
197376Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black61,34468.019.425.08.80.046.90.00.00.0SNPSNP
209364Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray64,14659.223.127.06.60.842.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
221352Midlothian Danielle Rowley68,32866.325.326.78.50.039.50.00.00.0LABSNP
228345Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman75,67267.424.623.810.40.840.40.00.00.0SNPSNP
234339Livingston Hannah Bardell81,20864.724.322.67.40.844.90.00.00.0SNPSNP
235338Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,16468.18.66.052.30.033.10.00.00.0LIBLIB
235338Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman62,13059.222.619.99.70.946.80.00.00.0SNPSNP
238335East Lothian Martin Whitfield79,09370.629.526.48.10.036.00.00.00.0LABSNP
244329East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron80,44267.325.221.68.00.944.30.00.00.0SNPSNP
251322Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands67,43669.127.422.17.80.042.60.00.00.0SNPSNP
251322Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock79,47371.227.121.09.13.938.90.00.00.0SNPSNP
252321Falkirk Johnny McNally82,24065.426.119.77.22.644.40.00.00.0SNPSNP
254319Dunbartonshire East Jo Swinson66,30078.114.57.243.90.633.80.00.00.0LIBLIB
254319Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown73,32763.426.619.26.80.047.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
255318Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day86,18665.129.021.07.90.841.20.00.00.0SNPSNP
259314Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley77,31365.331.922.27.60.038.30.00.00.0SNPSNP
261312Dundee East Stewart Hosie65,85465.227.216.38.40.048.00.00.00.0SNPSNP
267306Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson73,17464.831.117.46.90.843.80.00.00.0SNPSNP
271302Edinburgh West Christine Jardine71,50073.821.87.437.80.632.40.00.00.0LIBLIB
279294Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone46,86865.922.56.438.70.032.40.00.00.0LIBLIB
280293Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry71,17869.433.216.68.80.840.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
285288Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford68,99765.334.316.47.00.042.30.00.00.0SNPSNP
289284Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford53,63871.724.76.424.60.044.30.00.00.0SNPSNP
290283Fife North East Stephen Gethins58,68571.324.05.035.40.035.60.00.00.0SNPSNP
311262Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry76,84468.730.48.016.40.844.40.00.00.0SNPSNP
316258Renfrewshire East Paul Masterton70,06776.739.917.06.70.036.40.00.00.0CONCON
331242Stirling Stephen Kerr66,41574.336.912.08.20.942.00.00.00.0CONSNP
339235Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Bill Grant71,24164.940.014.26.60.039.30.00.00.0CONCON
343230Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara67,23071.533.16.521.20.039.20.00.00.0SNPSNP
395179Ochil and South Perthshire Luke Graham76,76770.641.410.37.90.040.40.00.00.0CONCON
397177Aberdeen South Ross Thomson64,96468.542.010.910.50.036.60.00.00.0CONCON
411163Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack74,20669.543.211.27.60.038.00.00.00.0CONCON
451123Gordon Colin Clark78,53168.440.66.114.40.038.90.00.00.0CONCON
48588Perth and North Perthshire Pete Wishart71,74371.842.25.47.50.045.00.00.00.0SNPSNP
50866Angus Kirstene Hair63,84063.045.06.76.30.041.90.00.00.0CONCON
54133Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell67,67272.449.38.57.90.034.40.00.00.0CONCON
54925Moray Douglas Ross70,64967.447.45.75.00.041.90.00.00.0CONCON
55024Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie72,47771.247.75.711.20.035.30.00.00.0CONCON
55519Banff and Buchan David Duguid67,60161.647.94.95.70.041.60.00.00.0CONCON
5704Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont73,19171.553.84.56.80.035.00.00.00.0CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.