Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 26.0%03-310
LAB 27.1%7 24.3%06-61
LIB 6.8%4 7.0%00+04
UKIP 0.2%0 0.8%00+00
Green 0.2%0 1.7%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 40.0%90+944
Minor 0.3%0 0.2%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Ross Skye and Lochaber (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
103466Edinburgh South Ian Murray64,55374.
143425Glasgow North East Paul Sweeney59,93253.
154414Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Hugh Gaffney71,19863.314.
161407Glasgow South West Chris Stephens62,99156.213.537.
164404Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss64,34655.912.
182386Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty67,60265.214.934.
184384Glasgow East David Linden66,24254.616.335.
186382Glasgow North Patrick Grady53,86362.112.831.43.70.511.
190378Rutherglen and Hamilton West Ged Killen80,09863.516.934.
190378Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan63,77360.915.632.
191377Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows68,21561.517.634.
191377Glasgow South Stewart McDonald69,12664.416.533.
193375Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,30169.614.330.
196372Dundee West Chris Law62,64461.714.
196372Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan58,85366.418.834.
197371Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard65,89666.
199369Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald66,55465.915.830.
202366Glenrothes Peter Grant66,37860.916.931.
203365Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black61,34468.016.931.
209359Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray64,14659.220.534.
211357Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Lesley Laird72,72163.520.633.
223345Midlothian Danielle Rowley68,32866.322.833.
229339Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman75,67267.422.
232336Livingston Hannah Bardell81,20864.721.729.
237331Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman62,13059.
239329East Lothian Martin Whitfield79,09370.626.933.
239329East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron80,44267.322.628.
248320Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands67,43669.124.928.
250318Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock79,47371.224.528.
253315Falkirk Johnny McNally82,24065.423.526.
262306Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,16468.17.59.748.71.50.830.80.00.9LIBLIB
264304Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown73,32763.424.
264304Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day86,18665.126.428.
281287Dunbartonshire East Jo Swinson66,30078.112.612.340.
282286Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley77,31365.329.428.
288280Dundee East Stewart Hosie65,85465.224.723.
301267Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson73,17464.828.624.
308260Edinburgh West Christine Jardine71,50073.819.212.634.50.51.431.50.00.2LIBLIB
310258Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry71,17869.430.723.
317251Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford68,99765.331.723.
321247Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone46,86865.919.910.536.
328240Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford53,63871.722.210.321.10.51.343.10.01.5SNPSNP
335233Fife North East Stephen Gethins58,68571.321.
339230Renfrewshire East Paul Masterton70,06776.737.323.
340228Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry76,84468.727.813.712.50.61.543.00.01.0SNPSNP
348220Stirling Stephen Kerr66,41574.334.419.
355213Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Bill Grant71,24164.937.420.
375193Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara67,23071.530.510.618.40.51.338.70.00.0SNPSNP
392177Ochil and South Perthshire Luke Graham76,76770.638.817.
393176Aberdeen South Ross Thomson64,96468.539.517.
400169Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack74,20669.540.617.
445123Gordon Colin Clark78,53168.438.
467101Perth and North Perthshire Pete Wishart71,74371.839.
47495Angus Kirstene Hair63,84063.042.511.
49673Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell67,67272.446.714.
51851Moray Douglas Ross70,64967.444.
52148Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie72,47771.
53237Banff and Buchan David Duguid67,60161.645.
5618Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont73,19171.551.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.