Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CON | 12.7% | 5 | 11.2% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
LAB | 35.3% | 37 | 17.3% | 0 | 31 | -31 | 6 |
LIB | 9.7% | 6 | 9.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 6 |
Reform | 7.0% | 0 | 20.7% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
Green | 3.8% | 0 | 5.1% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
SNP | 30.0% | 9 | 32.6% | 32 | 0 | +32 | 41 |
Other | 1.5% | 0 | 4.2% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Rutherglen' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Rutherglen (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
LAB Seats | CON Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | SNP % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 | 128 | Rutherglen | Michael Shanks | 72,674 | 58.5 | 2.3 | 38.7 | 1.3 | 13.0 | 1.3 | 37.0 | 0.0 | 6.4 | LAB | LAB |
78 | 127 | Airdrie and Shotts | Kenneth Stevenson | 70,199 | 52.2 | 2.0 | 38.0 | 0.8 | 14.8 | 1.3 | 37.3 | 0.0 | 5.7 | LAB | LAB |
81 | 123 | Coatbridge and Bellshill | Frank McNally | 72,667 | 53.3 | 1.6 | 35.6 | 0.7 | 13.8 | 4.4 | 39.5 | 0.0 | 4.3 | LAB | SNP |
92 | 112 | Dunbartonshire West | Douglas McAllister | 69,074 | 57.3 | 2.1 | 33.1 | 1.2 | 16.2 | 5.0 | 38.7 | 0.0 | 3.7 | LAB | SNP |
102 | 102 | Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke | Pamela Nash | 71,777 | 54.4 | 3.8 | 33.0 | 1.4 | 18.1 | 4.4 | 35.7 | 0.0 | 3.7 | LAB | SNP |
104 | 101 | Hamilton and Clyde Valley | Imogen Walker | 75,480 | 55.8 | 6.8 | 34.9 | 2.3 | 19.0 | 1.3 | 32.4 | 0.0 | 3.2 | LAB | LAB |
104 | 100 | Glasgow West | Patricia Ferguson | 69,028 | 57.8 | 2.6 | 30.6 | 2.0 | 15.7 | 10.4 | 35.2 | 0.0 | 3.6 | LAB | SNP |
105 | 99 | East Kilbride and Strathaven | Joani Reid | 76,415 | 61.1 | 4.8 | 32.3 | 1.5 | 18.4 | 5.2 | 33.7 | 0.0 | 4.1 | LAB | SNP |
106 | 98 | Midlothian | Kirsty McNeill | 73,916 | 59.8 | 4.9 | 32.1 | 4.1 | 19.5 | 1.3 | 34.5 | 0.0 | 3.5 | LAB | SNP |
109 | 96 | Edinburgh South | Ian Murray | 70,839 | 66.1 | 6.8 | 33.5 | 5.2 | 19.1 | 10.5 | 19.3 | 0.0 | 5.7 | LAB | LAB |
111 | 93 | Paisley and Renfrewshire South | Johanna Baxter | 71,574 | 57.7 | 3.7 | 29.7 | 2.4 | 19.4 | 5.4 | 35.4 | 0.0 | 3.9 | LAB | SNP |
112 | 93 | Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) | Torcuil Crichton | 21,235 | 63.7 | 3.8 | 29.8 | 2.5 | 19.4 | 1.3 | 23.7 | 0.0 | 19.5 | LAB | LAB |
116 | 88 | Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West | Martin McCluskey | 70,124 | 57.5 | 4.8 | 29.9 | 2.2 | 18.2 | 4.2 | 35.2 | 0.0 | 5.6 | LAB | SNP |
116 | 88 | Glasgow North East | Maureen Burke | 72,610 | 47.0 | 2.6 | 27.1 | 1.5 | 19.6 | 8.5 | 35.3 | 0.0 | 5.5 | LAB | SNP |
124 | 80 | Paisley and Renfrewshire North | Alison Suzanne Watt Taylor | 71,103 | 58.4 | 5.0 | 27.8 | 2.9 | 21.9 | 4.8 | 34.7 | 0.0 | 2.8 | LAB | SNP |
125 | 79 | Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch | Katrina Murray | 70,350 | 58.2 | 3.8 | 25.6 | 2.8 | 22.0 | 5.4 | 37.7 | 0.0 | 2.8 | LAB | SNP |
126 | 78 | Bathgate and Linlithgow | Kirsteen Sullivan | 72,185 | 58.3 | 6.0 | 27.4 | 4.6 | 23.2 | 4.6 | 29.9 | 0.0 | 4.4 | LAB | SNP |
126 | 78 | Glasgow South West | Zubir Ahmed | 68,871 | 51.8 | 3.1 | 24.0 | 2.4 | 20.3 | 8.9 | 36.9 | 0.0 | 4.3 | LAB | SNP |
127 | 77 | Glasgow East | John Grady | 68,988 | 51.4 | 3.9 | 24.3 | 2.2 | 20.8 | 8.9 | 35.8 | 0.0 | 4.1 | LAB | SNP |
127 | 77 | Glenrothes and Mid Fife | Richard Baker | 70,655 | 51.1 | 4.4 | 24.7 | 3.9 | 24.2 | 1.3 | 38.7 | 0.0 | 2.8 | LAB | SNP |
127 | 77 | Dunfermline and Dollar | Graeme Downie | 72,824 | 61.2 | 5.9 | 26.1 | 6.3 | 21.5 | 6.0 | 29.9 | 0.0 | 4.4 | LAB | SNP |
128 | 77 | Lothian East | Douglas Alexander | 75,456 | 63.7 | 9.4 | 29.3 | 4.9 | 21.6 | 6.5 | 24.2 | 0.0 | 4.2 | LAB | LAB |
128 | 76 | Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy | Melanie Ward | 71,845 | 56.8 | 6.3 | 26.1 | 3.5 | 22.4 | 5.1 | 30.7 | 0.0 | 6.0 | LAB | SNP |
129 | 75 | Glasgow North | Martin Rhodes | 67,579 | 51.4 | 3.1 | 22.7 | 2.9 | 18.8 | 13.4 | 34.6 | 0.0 | 4.4 | LAB | SNP |
130 | 74 | Glasgow South | Gordon McKee | 70,219 | 60.4 | 3.1 | 22.2 | 2.8 | 18.1 | 14.3 | 34.5 | 0.0 | 4.9 | LAB | SNP |
131 | 73 | Kilmarnock and Loudoun | Lillian Jones | 74,628 | 56.9 | 6.6 | 25.3 | 1.8 | 22.8 | 4.2 | 35.5 | 0.0 | 3.8 | LAB | SNP |
131 | 73 | Alloa and Grangemouth | Brian Leishman | 70,680 | 58.3 | 6.1 | 24.2 | 2.5 | 23.8 | 4.7 | 31.6 | 0.7 | 6.4 | LAB | SNP |
135 | 69 | Edinburgh North and Leith | Tracy Gilbert | 78,411 | 63.1 | 5.3 | 22.5 | 6.9 | 18.5 | 12.2 | 30.1 | 0.0 | 4.5 | LAB | SNP |
135 | 69 | Edinburgh East and Musselburgh | Chris Murray | 76,188 | 59.8 | 4.6 | 21.7 | 3.8 | 19.1 | 11.5 | 35.7 | 0.0 | 3.6 | LAB | SNP |
135 | 69 | Falkirk | Euan Stainbank | 73,584 | 57.9 | 6.7 | 23.5 | 2.3 | 22.5 | 5.3 | 34.0 | 0.0 | 5.6 | LAB | SNP |
137 | 67 | Dundee Central | Chris Law | 74,221 | 52.3 | 3.2 | 18.8 | 5.4 | 20.4 | 1.2 | 42.6 | 0.6 | 7.7 | SNP | SNP |
137 | 67 | Livingston | Gregor Poynton | 78,043 | 57.5 | 6.2 | 21.4 | 4.0 | 23.6 | 5.1 | 35.7 | 0.0 | 4.1 | LAB | SNP |
140 | 64 | Ayrshire Central | Alan Gemmell | 69,413 | 59.7 | 12.8 | 24.1 | 2.2 | 23.1 | 3.8 | 29.8 | 0.0 | 4.2 | LAB | SNP |
140 | 64 | Edinburgh South West | Scott Arthur | 73,784 | 61.9 | 10.1 | 21.4 | 5.8 | 19.8 | 8.9 | 30.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | LAB | SNP |
141 | 63 | Renfrewshire East | Blair McDougall | 73,380 | 68.4 | 14.8 | 24.1 | 2.1 | 19.6 | 4.3 | 29.6 | 0.0 | 5.4 | LAB | SNP |
142 | 62 | Ayrshire North and Arran | Irene Campbell | 72,176 | 58.6 | 12.0 | 20.3 | 2.2 | 22.9 | 4.5 | 34.1 | 0.0 | 4.0 | LAB | SNP |
153 | 51 | Arbroath and Broughty Ferry | Stephen Patrick Gethins | 76,149 | 57.9 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 31.8 | 1.3 | 48.6 | 0.0 | 5.1 | SNP | SNP |
153 | 51 | Aberdeen North | Kirsty Blackman | 75,925 | 55.4 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 32.0 | 4.3 | 47.3 | 0.0 | 6.0 | SNP | SNP |
153 | 51 | Fife North East | Wendy Chamberlain | 69,762 | 61.2 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 58.5 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 26.5 | 0.0 | 1.3 | LIB | LIB |
153 | 51 | Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross | Jamie Stone | 74,627 | 61.7 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 53.4 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 29.8 | 0.0 | 2.8 | LIB | LIB |
153 | 51 | Dunbartonshire Mid | Susan Murray | 73,596 | 71.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 46.1 | 13.9 | 4.5 | 28.6 | 0.0 | 3.7 | LIB | LIB |
153 | 51 | Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire | Angus MacDonald | 77,927 | 61.7 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 43.2 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 37.6 | 0.0 | 2.2 | LIB | LIB |
153 | 51 | Orkney and Shetland | Alistair Carmichael | 34,236 | 60.4 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 53.8 | 13.7 | 10.6 | 18.6 | 0.0 | 1.0 | LIB | LIB |
153 | 51 | Stirling and Strathallan | Chris Kane | 76,284 | 65.3 | 16.9 | 14.5 | 4.5 | 21.3 | 6.0 | 33.8 | 0.0 | 3.0 | LAB | SNP |
154 | 50 | Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock | Elaine Stewart | 70,340 | 58.2 | 20.5 | 17.1 | 2.4 | 23.5 | 3.5 | 29.0 | 0.0 | 4.1 | LAB | SNP |
154 | 50 | Edinburgh West | Christine Anne Jardine | 76,490 | 68.6 | 3.9 | 0.4 | 50.7 | 14.6 | 5.1 | 22.0 | 0.0 | 3.3 | LIB | LIB |
174 | 30 | Aberdeen South | Stephen Flynn | 77,328 | 59.9 | 22.3 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 21.9 | 4.8 | 35.5 | 0.0 | 4.4 | SNP | SNP |
175 | 29 | Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber | Brendan O'Hara | 71,756 | 62.5 | 18.8 | 0.7 | 15.2 | 21.6 | 1.3 | 37.4 | 0.0 | 5.0 | SNP | SNP |
179 | 25 | Dumfries and Galloway | John Cooper | 78,541 | 58.3 | 27.5 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 24.2 | 4.0 | 30.2 | 0.0 | 3.4 | CON | SNP |
185 | 20 | Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale | David Mundell | 71,900 | 61.5 | 31.8 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 23.6 | 4.7 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 3.4 | CON | CON |
186 | 18 | Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey | Graham Leadbitter | 77,072 | 60.4 | 31.4 | 0.5 | 5.6 | 17.5 | 4.8 | 36.6 | 0.0 | 3.6 | SNP | SNP |
190 | 14 | Perth and Kinross-shire | Pete Wishart | 77,261 | 64.8 | 32.7 | 0.4 | 4.2 | 14.1 | 1.2 | 43.3 | 0.0 | 4.1 | SNP | SNP |
196 | 8 | Aberdeenshire North and Moray East | Seamus Logan | 70,058 | 54.5 | 35.8 | 0.0 | 4.4 | 17.5 | 1.0 | 39.8 | 0.0 | 1.5 | SNP | SNP |
197 | 7 | Angus and Perthshire Glens | Dave Doogan | 76,668 | 61.8 | 36.6 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 9.0 | 1.1 | 47.3 | 0.0 | 3.7 | SNP | SNP |
202 | 3 | Gordon and Buchan | Harriet Cross | 69,605 | 63.0 | 43.4 | 0.0 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 1.0 | 40.1 | 0.0 | 1.6 | CON | CON |
203 | 2 | Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine | Andrew Campbell Bowie | 72,994 | 67.1 | 44.6 | 0.1 | 4.0 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 37.1 | 0.0 | 2.5 | CON | CON |
204 | 1 | Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk | John Lamont | 76,438 | 60.9 | 47.8 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 33.7 | 0.0 | 3.2 | CON | CON |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.