Scotland: Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	12.7%	5	12.5%	0	2	-2	3
LAB	35.3%	37	21.5%	0	27	-27	10
LIB	9.7%	6	10.0%	0	0	+0	6
Reform	7.0%	0	18.0%	0	0	+0	0
Green	3.8%	0	5.0%	0	0	+0	0
SNP	30.0%	9	32.5%	29	0	+29	38
Other	1.5%	0	0.5%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Airdrie and Shotts' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Airdrie and Shotts (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2024	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	SNP %	MIN %	OTH %	2024 Win	Pred Win
31	128	Airdrie and Shotts	Kenneth Stevenson	70,199	52.2	5.4	35.5	2.4	21.0	1.4	33.7	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
32	126	Coatbridge and Bellshill	Frank McNally	72,667	53.3	4.3	34.0	2.1	18.7	4.4	36.1	0.0	0.5	LAB	SNP
33	125	Dunbartonshire West	Douglas McAllister	69,074	57.3	4.3	33.1	2.5	18.6	5.0	36.2	0.0	0.4	LAB	SNP
37	122	Edinburgh South	Ian Murray	70,839	66.1	8.6	37.2	6.3	17.4	10.5	19.4	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
38	121	Rutherglen	Michael Shanks	72,674	58.5	6.4	34.7	4.5	19.6	1.4	32.7	0.0	0.7	LAB	LAB
45	114	Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)	Torcuil Crichton	21,235	63.7	6.4	33.7	3.4	20.0	1.6	24.2	0.0	10.5	LAB	LAB
45	113	Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke	Pamela Nash	71,777	54.4	6.2	33.4	2.4	19.6	4.3	33.6	0.0	0.4	LAB	SNP
48	110	Glasgow West	Patricia Ferguson	69,028	57.8	4.7	31.3	3.6	16.7	10.4	33.0	0.0	0.4	LAB	SNP
53	105	Paisley and Renfrewshire South	Johanna Baxter	71,574	57.7	5.6	31.9	3.5	18.9	5.4	34.2	0.0	0.4	LAB	SNP
56	102	Glasgow North East	Maureen Burke	72,610	47.0	4.4	30.5	2.1	18.9	8.5	34.9	0.0	0.6	LAB	SNP
58	101	Midlothian	Kirsty McNeill	73,916	59.8	7.1	33.0	6.2	19.3	1.2	32.8	0.0	0.4	LAB	LAB
60	99	East Kilbride and Strathaven	Joani Reid	76,415	61.1	7.5	32.9	2.7	19.5	5.2	31.9	0.0	0.4	LAB	LAB
60	98	Paisley and Renfrewshire North	Alison Suzanne Watt Taylor	71,103	58.4	6.2	31.6	3.6	19.1	4.7	34.4	0.0	0.3	LAB	SNP
64	94	Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch	Katrina Murray	70,350	58.2	4.9	29.9	3.5	18.7	5.3	37.5	0.0	0.3	LAB	SNP
70	89	Bathgate and Linlithgow	Kirsteen Sullivan	72,185	58.3	7.4	31.6	5.5	20.6	4.6	29.9	0.0	0.5	LAB	LAB
71	87	Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West	Martin McCluskey	70,124	57.5	7.4	31.5	3.5	18.9	4.3	33.9	0.0	0.6	LAB	SNP
71	87	Glasgow South West	Zubir Ahmed	68,871	51.8	4.5	28.5	3.0	17.8	8.9	36.9	0.0	0.4	LAB	SNP
72	87	Hamilton and Clyde Valley	Imogen Walker	75,480	55.8	10.1	34.2	3.9	20.0	1.3	30.2	0.0	0.3	LAB	LAB
73	85	Glenrothes and Mid Fife	Richard Baker	70,655	51.1	5.4	29.1	4.7	20.7	1.1	38.5	0.0	0.3	LAB	SNP
73	85	Glasgow East	John Grady	68,988	51.4	5.2	28.7	2.8	18.2	8.9	35.7	0.0	0.4	LAB	SNP
78	81	Dunfermline and Dollar	Graeme Downie	72,824	61.2	7.4	30.4	7.5	18.6	5.9	29.8	0.0	0.5	LAB	LAB
79	79	Glasgow North	Martin Rhodes	67,579	51.4	4.5	27.3	3.6	16.2	13.4	34.5	0.0	0.5	LAB	SNP
82	77	Lothian East	Douglas Alexander	75,456	63.7	10.9	33.3	5.9	18.8	6.5	24.2	0.0	0.4	LAB	LAB
82	76	Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy	Melanie Ward	71,845	56.8	8.1	30.4	4.3	20.6	5.2	30.8	0.0	0.6	LAB	SNP
82	76	Glasgow South	Gordon McKee	70,219	60.4	4.5	26.9	3.5	15.8	14.3	34.5	0.0	0.5	LAB	SNP
89	69	Kilmarnock and Loudoun	Lillian Jones	74,628	56.9	8.0	29.6	2.3	20.0	4.2	35.4	0.0	0.4	LAB	SNP
93	65	Alloa and Grangemouth	Brian Leishman	70,680	58.3	7.9	28.7	3.2	22.1	4.8	31.7	0.9	0.6	LAB	SNP
93	65	Edinburgh East and Musselburgh	Chris Murray	76,188	59.8	5.8	26.4	4.6	15.9	11.4	35.6	0.0	0.4	LAB	SNP
94	64	Edinburgh North and Leith	Tracy Gilbert	78,411	63.1	6.7	27.1	8.2	15.4	12.2	29.9	0.0	0.5	LAB	SNP
97	61	Falkirk	Euan Stainbank	73,584	57.9	8.4	28.0	3.0	20.6	5.4	34.1	0.0	0.6	LAB	SNP
97	61	Livingston	Gregor Poynton	78,043	57.5	7.5	26.1	4.9	20.5	5.0	35.6	0.0	0.4	LAB	SNP
97	61	Dundee Central	Chris Law	74,221	52.3	5.2	23.8	6.7	18.8	1.4	42.7	0.7	0.8	SNP	SNP
107	51	Edinburgh South West	Scott Arthur	73,784	61.9	11.5	26.1	6.9	16.4	8.8	29.9	0.0	0.4	LAB	SNP
109	49	Ayrshire Central	Alan Gemmell	69,413	59.7	14.3	28.6	2.7	20.4	3.8	29.8	0.0	0.4	LAB	SNP
119	39	Renfrewshire East	Blair McDougall	73,380	68.4	16.6	28.6	2.7	17.5	4.4	29.7	0.0	0.6	LAB	SNP
119	39	Ayrshire North and Arran	Irene Campbell	72,176	58.6	13.5	25.1	2.7	19.9	4.4	34.0	0.0	0.4	LAB	SNP
131	27	Arbroath and Broughty Ferry	Stephen Patrick Gethins	76,149	57.9	15.1	19.4	5.5	20.4	1.3	37.9	0.0	0.5	SNP	SNP
133	25	Dunbartonshire Mid	Susan Murray	73,596	71.7	4.9	8.3	42.7	13.5	4.3	26.1	0.0	0.3	LIB	LIB
133	25	Aberdeen North	Kirsty Blackman	75,925	55.4	13.7	16.7	6.5	21.0	4.3	37.1	0.0	0.6	SNP	SNP
135	23	Stirling and Strathallan	Chris Kane	76,284	65.3	18.1	19.8	5.4	17.1	5.8	33.5	0.0	0.3	LAB	SNP
135	23	Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock	Elaine Stewart	70,340	58.2	22.0	22.2	3.0	20.2	3.4	28.9	0.0	0.4	LAB	SNP
138	20	Edinburgh West	Christine Anne Jardine	76,490	68.6	5.4	4.0	51.0	13.0	4.9	21.3	0.0	0.3	LIB	LIB
138	20	Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire	Angus MacDonald	77,927	61.7	4.9	2.5	38.0	14.1	5.1	35.1	0.0	0.3	LIB	LIB
138	20	Orkney and Shetland	Alistair Carmichael	34,236	60.4	2.6	0.3	55.2	12.9	10.4	18.5	0.0	0.1	LIB	LIB
138	20	Fife North East	Wendy Chamberlain	69,762	61.2	3.6	0.3	54.9	11.7	4.6	24.8	0.0	0.2	LIB	LIB
138	20	Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross	Jamie Stone	74,627	61.7	4.0	0.3	49.6	13.6	4.2	28.0	0.0	0.3	LIB	LIB
144	14	Aberdeen South	Stephen Flynn	77,328	59.9	23.7	11.7	6.6	17.7	4.6	35.2	0.0	0.4	SNP	SNP
147	11	Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber	Brendan O'Hara	71,756	62.5	20.3	7.0	16.7	17.4	1.1	37.0	0.0	0.5	SNP	SNP
150	8	Dumfries and Galloway	John Cooper	78,541	58.3	28.7	12.6	4.9	19.8	3.8	29.8	0.0	0.3	CON	SNP
153	5	Perth and Kinross-shire	Pete Wishart	77,261	64.8	28.8	6.2	7.7	15.9	1.1	40.0	0.0	0.4	SNP	SNP
154	5	Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale	David Mundell	71,900	61.5	33.1	10.1	6.6	18.8	4.4	26.6	0.0	0.3	CON	CON
154	4	Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey	Graham Leadbitter	77,072	60.4	29.1	6.0	8.4	17.2	4.6	34.3	0.0	0.3	SNP	SNP
156	2	Angus and Perthshire Glens	Dave Doogan	76,668	61.8	29.2	3.5	6.9	16.3	1.0	42.5	0.0	0.4	SNP	SNP
156	2	Gordon and Buchan	Harriet Cross	69,605	63.0	31.5	0.9	16.8	17.0	0.8	32.7	0.0	0.2	CON	SNP
156	2	Aberdeenshire North and Moray East	Seamus Logan	70,058	54.5	31.4	0.5	7.5	22.6	0.8	37.1	0.0	0.2	SNP	SNP
157	2	Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine	Andrew Campbell Bowie	72,994	67.1	34.4	2.6	13.2	15.9	3.0	30.6	0.0	0.3	CON	CON
158	1	Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk	John Lamont	76,438	60.9	39.5	2.9	8.2	16.3	4.2	28.4	0.0	0.4	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.