Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 18.0%010-103
LAB 27.1%7 17.0%06-61
LIB 6.8%4 13.0%10+15
Brexit 0.0%0 9.0%00+00
Green 0.2%0 2.0%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 38.0%161+1550
UKIP 0.2%0 0.5%00+00
Other 0.3%0 2.5%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Glasgow Central (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
41412Edinburgh South Ian Murray64,55374.18.843.
75377Glasgow North East Paul Sweeney59,93253.05.831.
88364Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Hugh Gaffney71,19863.37.331.
105347Glasgow South West Chris Stephens62,99156.
116336Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss64,34655.
129323Glasgow East David Linden66,24254.68.427.
129323Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty67,60265.27.726.
136316Rutherglen and Hamilton West Ged Killen80,09863.58.726.310.99.61.938.
137315Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows68,21561.
147305Glasgow South Stewart McDonald69,12664.48.525.
151301Glasgow North Patrick Grady53,86362.16.623.29.38.411.438.
151301Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan63,77360.98.124.710.09.21.843.
157295Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan58,85366.410.426.
160292Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,30169.67.422.
161291Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard65,89666.08.323.410.79.41.943.
165287Glenrothes Peter Grant66,37860.98.723.
168284Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black61,34468.08.723.
169283Dundee West Chris Law62,64461.
170282Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald66,55465.
174278Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray64,14659.
175277Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Lesley Laird72,72163.512.
194258Midlothian Danielle Rowley68,32866.314.425.
204248Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman75,67267.413.622.612.79.71.936.
207245Livingston Hannah Bardell81,20864.713.321.
212240Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman62,13059.211.618.811.39.71.942.
216236East Lothian Martin Whitfield79,09370.618.524.
216236East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron80,44267.314.320.
233219Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands67,43669.116.520.
234218Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock79,47371.216.119.911.
234218Falkirk Johnny McNally82,24065.415.
247205Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown73,32763.415.617.
247205Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day86,18665.118.019.910.29.71.937.
251201Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,16468.
257195Dunbartonshire East Jo Swinson66,30078.16.56.445.57.11.431.
257195Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley77,31365.321.
265187Dundee East Stewart Hosie65,85465.216.314.810.59.71.944.
271181Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson73,17464.820.
273179Edinburgh West Christine Jardine71,50073.810.86.540.28.51.729.
281171Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone46,86865.911.65.441.27.91.630.
287165Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry71,17869.422.315.511.09.71.936.
297155Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford53,63871.713.85.326.37.81.541.
297155Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford68,99765.323.314.
298154Fife North East Stephen Gethins58,68571.313.
330122Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry76,84468.719.
347105Renfrewshire East Paul Masterton70,06776.728.915.
36488Stirling Stephen Kerr66,41574.326.010.810.19.71.938.
38369Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Bill Grant71,24164.929.
38666Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara67,23071.522.25.523.77.91.637.
43319Ochil and South Perthshire Luke Graham76,76770.630.48.810.09.71.936.
43517Aberdeen South Ross Thomson64,96468.531.19.312.69.71.932.
43814Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack74,20669.532.
4448Gordon Colin Clark78,53168.429.
4466Perth and North Perthshire Pete Wishart71,74371.831.24.510.17.41.543.
4475Angus Kirstene Hair63,84063.
4494Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell67,67272.438.
4493Moray Douglas Ross70,64967.436.
4503Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie72,47771.236.84.813.97.51.533.
4502Banff and Buchan David Duguid67,60161.636.
4521Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont73,19171.542.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.