Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 24.0%05-58
LAB 27.1%7 23.0%06-61
LIB 6.8%4 8.0%00+04
UKIP 0.2%0 2.0%00+00
Green 0.2%0 2.0%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 40.0%110+1146
Minor 0.3%0 1.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Stirling (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Falkirk (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
92472Edinburgh South Ian Murray64,55374.
133430Glasgow North East Paul Sweeney59,93253.09.838.
144419Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Hugh Gaffney71,19863.312.338.
149414Glasgow South West Chris Stephens62,99156.211.936.
152411Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss64,34655.910.633.
171392Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty67,60265.
172391Glasgow East David Linden66,24254.614.334.
177386Glasgow North Patrick Grady53,86362.
179384Rutherglen and Hamilton West Ged Killen80,09863.514.833.
179384Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows68,21561.515.433.
180383Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan63,77360.913.731.
180383Glasgow South Stewart McDonald69,12664.414.532.
184379Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,30169.612.529.
186377Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan58,85366.416.733.
186377Dundee West Chris Law62,64461.712.328.
187376Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard65,89666.
187376Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald66,55465.913.929.
187376Glenrothes Peter Grant66,37860.914.830.
188375Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black61,34468.014.830.
192371Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray64,14659.218.432.
192371Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Lesley Laird72,72163.518.532.
207356Midlothian Danielle Rowley68,32866.320.631.
215348Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman75,67267.419.929.
219344Livingston Hannah Bardell81,20864.719.628.
225338Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman62,13059.217.925.
226337East Lothian Martin Whitfield79,09370.624.831.
227336East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron80,44267.320.527.
236327Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands67,43669.122.727.
236327Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock79,47371.222.426.
236327Falkirk Johnny McNally82,24065.421.425.
240323Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown73,32763.421.924.
240323Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day86,18665.124.326.
240323Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,16468.16.68.849.
255308Dunbartonshire East Jo Swinson66,30078.
256307Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley77,31365.327.327.
264299Dundee East Stewart Hosie65,85465.222.621.
283280Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson73,17464.826.423.
295268Edinburgh West Christine Jardine71,50073.817.111.535.51.71.731.60.00.9LIBLIB
298265Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry71,17869.428.622.
304259Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford68,99765.329.621.
304259Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone46,86865.917.89.636.91.61.631.90.00.6LIBLIB
314249Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford53,63871.720.19.422.01.61.643.00.02.4SNPSNP
319244Fife North East Stephen Gethins58,68571.319.37.433.91.51.435.40.01.1SNPSNP
324240Renfrewshire East Paul Masterton70,06776.735.
324239Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry76,84468.725.712.513.51.81.742.90.01.9SNPSNP
328235Stirling Stephen Kerr66,41574.332.317.
337226Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Bill Grant71,24164.935.319.
349214Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara67,23071.528.49.719.31.61.638.70.00.7SNPSNP
368195Ochil and South Perthshire Luke Graham76,76770.636.715.
370194Aberdeen South Ross Thomson64,96468.537.316.
373191Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack74,20669.538.516.
403160Gordon Colin Clark78,53168.435.
431132Perth and North Perthshire Pete Wishart71,74371.837.
440123Angus Kirstene Hair63,84063.040.310.
447117Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell67,67272.444.612.
47292Moray Douglas Ross70,64967.442.
47985Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie72,47771.
50064Banff and Buchan David Duguid67,60161.643.
54420Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont73,19171.549.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.