Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 25.1%6 18.5%04-42
LAB 18.6%1 24.0%10+12
LIB 9.5%4 8.0%02-22
Reform 0.5%0 0.0%00+00
Green 1.0%0 0.0%00+00
SNP 45.0%48 46.5%61+553
Other 0.3%0 3.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Banff and Buchan, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Lanark and Hamilton East (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Dunfermline and West Fife (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
51504Edinburgh South Ian Murray66,18875.19.854.
75479Glasgow North East Anne McLaughlin61,07555.53.943.
90464Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss69,23057.
93461Glasgow South West Chris Stephens64,57557.14.840.
97457Glasgow North Patrick Grady57,13063.33.938.
99455Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Steven Bonnar72,94366.
116438Rutherglen and Hamilton West Margaret Ferrier80,91866.58.438.
129425Glasgow East David Linden67,38157.
131423Glasgow South Stewart McDonald70,89166.96.535.
149405Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows68,85664.59.536.
154401Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Neale Hanvey72,85364.513.540.
155399Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard69,42468.
158396Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty66,51767.97.633.
158396Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray64,01162.
167387Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan60,62265.
171383Dundee West Chris Law64,43164.55.830.
172382Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan63,40262.78.533.
200354Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald66,07969.19.529.
202352Midlothian Owen Thompson70,54468.415.
204350Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black64,38566.911.
204350Glenrothes Peter Grant65,67263.310.
218336Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock81,33673.011.929.
221333Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,10668.615.632.
225329Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman76,65269.814.330.
232322East Lothian Kenny MacAskill81,60071.719.934.
237317East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron81,22469.414.628.
252302Livingston Hannah Bardell82,28566.315.727.
254300Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands72,00769.
263291Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,21167.73.313.842.
288266Dunbartonshire East Amy Callaghan66,07580.37.415.
291263Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman62,48959.913.520.
291263Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day87,04466.418.
302252Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown74,51763.917.623.
309245Edinburgh West Christine Jardine72,50775.210.414.
313241Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone46,93067.09.813.
313241Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry73,50170.918.
319235Fife North East Wendy Chamberlain60,90575.36.48.740.
319235Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford54,23073.510.712.
324230Dundee East Stewart Hosie66,21068.417.618.
329225Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley77,65968.325.524.
332222Falkirk Johnny McNally84,47266.
360194Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson73,53465.524.
388166Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry78,05970.
421133Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford69,74266.728.
438116Renfrewshire East Kirsten Oswald72,23276.628.517.
46787Stirling Alyn Smith68,47376.826.913.
47777Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Allan Dorans71,97064.731.917.
50351Aberdeen South Stephen Flynn65,71969.429.313.
51836Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara66,52572.228.611.812.
52925Ochil and South Perthshire John Nicolson78,77673.432.
53321Perth and North Perthshire Pete Wishart72,60074.530.
54410Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack74,58069.037.513.
54410Gordon Richard Thomson79,62970.234.610.
5459Angus Dave Doogan63,95267.533.
5495Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell68,33071.939.413.
5495Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie72,64073.436.
5522Moray Douglas Ross71,03568.738.
5532Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont74,51871.341.
5541Banff and Buchan David Duguid66,65563.443.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.