Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 28.3%01-112
LAB 27.1%7 18.7%05-52
LIB 6.8%4 9.7%00+04
Brexit 0.0%0 0.3%00+00
Green 0.2%0 1.0%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 42.0%60+641
UKIP 0.2%0 0.0%00+00
Other 0.3%0 0.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Stirling (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Linlithgow and East Falkirk (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
64512Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Lesley Laird72,72163.523.451.
72504Edinburgh South Ian Murray64,55374.119.745.
92483Glasgow North East Paul Sweeney59,93253.
111464Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Hugh Gaffney71,19863.316.333.
119456Glasgow South West Chris Stephens62,99156.215.431.
124451Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss64,34655.914.
139436Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty67,60265.
142433Glasgow East David Linden66,24254.618.929.
142433Glasgow North Patrick Grady53,86362.114.525.16.50.410.543.
152423Rutherglen and Hamilton West Ged Killen80,09863.519.528.
153422Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan63,77360.918.
157418Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows68,21561.520.
161414Glasgow South Stewart McDonald69,12664.418.827.
161414Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,30169.616.524.
161414Dundee West Chris Law62,64461.715.924.
166409Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan58,85366.421.428.
172403Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard65,89666.018.525.
172403Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald66,55465.918.325.
173402Glenrothes Peter Grant66,37860.919.
180395Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black61,34468.019.525.
194381Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray64,14659.
206369Midlothian Danielle Rowley68,32866.325.427.
225350Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman75,67267.424.624.
229346Livingston Hannah Bardell81,20864.724.323.
232343Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman62,13059.222.420.
232343Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,16468.18.66.451.
235340East Lothian Martin Whitfield79,09370.629.627.
237338East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron80,44267.325.322.
243332Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands67,43669.127.522.
245330Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock79,47371.226.921.
246329Falkirk Johnny McNally82,24065.426.
247328Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown73,32763.426.619.
249326Dunbartonshire East Jo Swinson66,30078.114.67.742.80.00.634.
249326Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day86,18665.128.821.
256319Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley77,31365.332.
260315Dundee East Stewart Hosie65,85465.227.317.
276299Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson73,17464.831.
283292Edinburgh West Christine Jardine71,50073.821.87.936.70.00.632.
288287Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone46,86865.922.36.837.
290285Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry71,17869.433.
305270Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford68,99765.334.317.
305270Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford53,63871.724.66.823.
309266Fife North East Stephen Gethins58,68571.324.05.434.
322253Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry76,84468.730.28.615.20.30.844.
325251Renfrewshire East Paul Masterton70,06776.740.
341234Stirling Stephen Kerr66,41574.337.
345231Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Bill Grant71,24164.940.
354221Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara67,23071.533.
400176Ochil and South Perthshire Luke Graham76,76770.641.411.
403173Aberdeen South Ross Thomson64,96468.542.
415161Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack74,20669.543.312.
446130Gordon Colin Clark78,53168.440.66.513.
48095Perth and North Perthshire Pete Wishart71,74371.842.
50076Angus Kirstene Hair63,84063.
53244Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell67,67272.449.
54234Moray Douglas Ross70,64967.447.
54333Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie72,47771.
55323Banff and Buchan David Duguid67,60161.647.
5733Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont73,19171.553.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.