Scotland: Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 12.7%5 11.2%01-14
LAB 35.3%37 17.3%031-316
LIB 9.7%6 9.0%00+06
Reform 7.0%0 20.7%00+00
Green 3.8%0 5.1%00+00
SNP 30.0%9 32.6%320+3241
Other 1.5%0 4.2%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Rutherglen' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Rutherglen (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
SNP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
77128Rutherglen Michael Shanks72,67458.52.338.71.313.01.337.00.06.4LABLAB
78127Airdrie and Shotts Kenneth Stevenson70,19952.22.038.00.814.81.337.30.05.7LABLAB
81123Coatbridge and Bellshill Frank McNally72,66753.31.635.60.713.84.439.50.04.3LABSNP
92112Dunbartonshire West Douglas McAllister69,07457.32.133.11.216.25.038.70.03.7LABSNP
102102Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke Pamela Nash71,77754.43.833.01.418.14.435.70.03.7LABSNP
104101Hamilton and Clyde Valley Imogen Walker75,48055.86.834.92.319.01.332.40.03.2LABLAB
104100Glasgow West Patricia Ferguson69,02857.82.630.62.015.710.435.20.03.6LABSNP
10599East Kilbride and Strathaven Joani Reid76,41561.14.832.31.518.45.233.70.04.1LABSNP
10698Midlothian Kirsty McNeill73,91659.84.932.14.119.51.334.50.03.5LABSNP
10996Edinburgh South Ian Murray70,83966.16.833.55.219.110.519.30.05.7LABLAB
11193Paisley and Renfrewshire South Johanna Baxter71,57457.73.729.72.419.45.435.40.03.9LABSNP
11293Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Torcuil Crichton21,23563.73.829.82.519.41.323.70.019.5LABLAB
11688Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West Martin McCluskey70,12457.54.829.92.218.24.235.20.05.6LABSNP
11688Glasgow North East Maureen Burke72,61047.02.627.11.519.68.535.30.05.5LABSNP
12480Paisley and Renfrewshire North Alison Suzanne Watt Taylor71,10358.45.027.82.921.94.834.70.02.8LABSNP
12579Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch Katrina Murray70,35058.23.825.62.822.05.437.70.02.8LABSNP
12678Bathgate and Linlithgow Kirsteen Sullivan72,18558.36.027.44.623.24.629.90.04.4LABSNP
12678Glasgow South West Zubir Ahmed68,87151.83.124.02.420.38.936.90.04.3LABSNP
12777Glasgow East John Grady68,98851.43.924.32.220.88.935.80.04.1LABSNP
12777Glenrothes and Mid Fife Richard Baker70,65551.14.424.73.924.21.338.70.02.8LABSNP
12777Dunfermline and Dollar Graeme Downie72,82461.25.926.16.321.56.029.90.04.4LABSNP
12877Lothian East Douglas Alexander75,45663.79.429.34.921.66.524.20.04.2LABLAB
12876Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy Melanie Ward71,84556.86.326.13.522.45.130.70.06.0LABSNP
12975Glasgow North Martin Rhodes67,57951.43.122.72.918.813.434.60.04.4LABSNP
13074Glasgow South Gordon McKee70,21960.43.122.22.818.114.334.50.04.9LABSNP
13173Kilmarnock and Loudoun Lillian Jones74,62856.96.625.31.822.84.235.50.03.8LABSNP
13173Alloa and Grangemouth Brian Leishman70,68058.36.124.22.523.84.731.60.76.4LABSNP
13569Edinburgh North and Leith Tracy Gilbert78,41163.15.322.56.918.512.230.10.04.5LABSNP
13569Edinburgh East and Musselburgh Chris Murray76,18859.84.621.73.819.111.535.70.03.6LABSNP
13569Falkirk Euan Stainbank73,58457.96.723.52.322.55.334.00.05.6LABSNP
13767Dundee Central Chris Law74,22152.33.218.85.420.41.242.60.67.7SNPSNP
13767Livingston Gregor Poynton78,04357.56.221.44.023.65.135.70.04.1LABSNP
14064Ayrshire Central Alan Gemmell69,41359.712.824.12.223.13.829.80.04.2LABSNP
14064Edinburgh South West Scott Arthur73,78461.910.121.45.819.88.930.00.04.0LABSNP
14163Renfrewshire East Blair McDougall73,38068.414.824.12.119.64.329.60.05.4LABSNP
14262Ayrshire North and Arran Irene Campbell72,17658.612.020.32.222.94.534.10.04.0LABSNP
15351Arbroath and Broughty Ferry Stephen Patrick Gethins76,14957.95.55.22.631.81.348.60.05.1SNPSNP
15351Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman75,92555.44.13.42.832.04.347.30.06.0SNPSNP
15351Fife North East Wendy Chamberlain69,76261.21.20.058.57.84.826.50.01.3LIBLIB
15351Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone74,62761.71.20.053.48.44.329.80.02.8LIBLIB
15351Dunbartonshire Mid Susan Murray73,59671.72.20.946.113.94.528.60.03.7LIBLIB
15351Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire Angus MacDonald77,92761.71.60.043.210.05.337.60.02.2LIBLIB
15351Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,23660.42.30.053.813.710.618.60.01.0LIBLIB
15351Stirling and Strathallan Chris Kane76,28465.316.914.54.521.36.033.80.03.0LABSNP
15450Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock Elaine Stewart70,34058.220.517.12.423.53.529.00.04.1LABSNP
15450Edinburgh West Christine Anne Jardine76,49068.63.90.450.714.65.122.00.03.3LIBLIB
17430Aberdeen South Stephen Flynn77,32859.922.35.65.521.94.835.50.04.4SNPSNP
17529Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber Brendan O'Hara71,75662.518.80.715.221.61.337.40.05.0SNPSNP
17925Dumfries and Galloway John Cooper78,54158.327.56.64.124.24.030.20.03.4CONSNP
18520Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell71,90061.531.83.95.623.64.727.00.03.4CONCON
18618Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Graham Leadbitter77,07260.431.40.55.617.54.836.60.03.6SNPSNP
19014Perth and Kinross-shire Pete Wishart77,26164.832.70.44.214.11.243.30.04.1SNPSNP
1968Aberdeenshire North and Moray East Seamus Logan70,05854.535.80.04.417.51.039.80.01.5SNPSNP
1977Angus and Perthshire Glens Dave Doogan76,66861.836.60.12.29.01.147.30.03.7SNPSNP
2023Gordon and Buchan Harriet Cross69,60563.043.40.05.38.51.040.10.01.6CONCON
2032Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Campbell Bowie72,99467.144.60.14.08.43.237.10.02.5CONCON
2041Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont76,43860.947.80.12.48.54.433.70.03.2CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.