Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 26.6%01-112
LAB 27.1%7 24.1%05-52
LIB 6.8%4 6.6%00+04
UKIP 0.2%0 1.4%00+00
Green 0.2%0 1.4%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 38.9%60+641
Minor 0.3%0 1.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Ross Skye and Lochaber (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
111458Edinburgh South Ian Murray64,55374.117.751.
145423Glasgow North East Paul Sweeney59,93253.011.639.
159409Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Hugh Gaffney71,19863.314.639.
168400Glasgow South West Chris Stephens62,99156.
171397Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss64,34655.912.535.
186382Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty67,60265.215.434.
187381Glasgow East David Linden66,24254.616.935.
188380Glasgow North Patrick Grady53,86362.
192376Rutherglen and Hamilton West Ged Killen80,09863.517.534.
193375Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan63,77360.916.
194374Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows68,21561.518.
195373Glasgow South Stewart McDonald69,12664.417.
197371Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,30169.614.830.
199369Dundee West Chris Law62,64461.714.529.
202366Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan58,85366.419.434.
202366Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard65,89666.016.731.
205363Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald66,55465.916.430.
207361Glenrothes Peter Grant66,37860.917.531.
207361Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black61,34468.017.531.
212356Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray64,14659.
214354Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Lesley Laird72,72163.521.
226342Midlothian Danielle Rowley68,32866.323.433.
232336Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman75,67267.422.630.
236332Livingston Hannah Bardell81,20864.722.329.
238330Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman62,13059.220.626.
241328East Lothian Martin Whitfield79,09370.627.532.
241327East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron80,44267.323.328.
256312Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands67,43669.125.528.
258310Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock79,47371.
262306Falkirk Johnny McNally82,24065.424.
264304Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,16468.17.89.648.12.00.730.30.01.5LIBLIB
273295Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown73,32763.424.625.
273295Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day86,18665.
286282Dunbartonshire East Jo Swinson66,30078.
288280Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley77,31365.330.
296272Dundee East Stewart Hosie65,85465.225.322.
304264Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson73,17464.829.
314254Edinburgh West Christine Jardine71,50073.819.812.533.
315253Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry71,17869.431.323.
322246Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford68,99765.332.322.
324244Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone46,86865.920.610.435.
332236Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford53,63871.722.810.
339229Fife North East Stephen Gethins58,68571.322.
343226Renfrewshire East Paul Masterton70,06776.737.923.
347221Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry76,84468.728.513.512.
354214Stirling Stephen Kerr66,41574.335.
365204Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Bill Grant71,24164.938.
383185Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara67,23071.531.210.517.
399170Ochil and South Perthshire Luke Graham76,76770.639.416.
401168Aberdeen South Ross Thomson64,96468.540.
405164Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack74,20669.541.
450119Gordon Colin Clark78,53168.438.79.911.
47692Perth and North Perthshire Pete Wishart71,74371.840.
49277Angus Kirstene Hair63,84063.
50069Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell67,67272.447.313.
52544Moray Douglas Ross70,64967.445.
52643Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie72,47771.
53732Banff and Buchan David Duguid67,60161.645.
5645Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont73,19171.551.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.