Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 28.5%01-112
LAB 27.1%7 18.0%05-52
LIB 6.8%4 11.0%00+04
Brexit 0.0%0 0.0%00+00
Green 0.2%0 1.0%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 41.5%60+641
UKIP 0.2%0 0.0%00+00
Other 0.3%0 0.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Stirling (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
57517Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Lesley Laird72,72163.523.650.525.
67507Edinburgh South Ian Murray64,55374.119.644.87.40.827.
91482Glasgow North East Paul Sweeney59,93253.012.833.
118455Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Hugh Gaffney71,19863.316.
125448Glasgow South West Chris Stephens62,99156.215.530.
128445Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss64,34655.913.928.37.40.849.
156417Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty67,60265.
157416Glasgow East David Linden66,24254.618.729.
162411Glasgow North Patrick Grady53,86362.114.724.47.910.542.
172401Rutherglen and Hamilton West Ged Killen80,09863.519.427.
172401Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan63,77360.917.926.
175398Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows68,21561.520.
176397Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,30169.616.424.
181392Glasgow South Stewart McDonald69,12664.419.
181392Dundee West Chris Law62,64461.716.
187386Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan58,85366.421.427.
193380Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald66,55465.918.
193380Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard65,89666.018.524.68.80.847.
197376Glenrothes Peter Grant66,37860.919.425.
197376Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black61,34468.019.425.
209364Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray64,14659.
221352Midlothian Danielle Rowley68,32866.325.326.
228345Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman75,67267.424.623.810.40.840.
234339Livingston Hannah Bardell81,20864.724.322.67.40.844.
235338Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,16468.
235338Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman62,13059.222.619.99.70.946.
238335East Lothian Martin Whitfield79,09370.629.526.
244329East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron80,44267.325.
251322Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands67,43669.127.422.
251322Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock79,47371.
252321Falkirk Johnny McNally82,24065.426.
254319Dunbartonshire East Jo Swinson66,30078.
254319Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown73,32763.426.619.
255318Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day86,18665.
259314Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley77,31365.331.922.
261312Dundee East Stewart Hosie65,85465.
267306Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson73,17464.831.
271302Edinburgh West Christine Jardine71,50073.821.87.437.80.632.
279294Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone46,86865.922.56.438.
280293Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry71,17869.433.
285288Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford68,99765.334.316.
289284Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford53,63871.724.76.424.
290283Fife North East Stephen Gethins58,68571.324.
311262Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry76,84468.730.
316258Renfrewshire East Paul Masterton70,06776.739.917.
331242Stirling Stephen Kerr66,41574.336.912.08.20.942.
339235Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Bill Grant71,24164.940.
343230Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara67,23071.533.16.521.
395179Ochil and South Perthshire Luke Graham76,76770.641.410.
397177Aberdeen South Ross Thomson64,96468.542.010.910.
411163Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack74,20669.543.
451123Gordon Colin Clark78,53168.440.
48588Perth and North Perthshire Pete Wishart71,74371.842.
50866Angus Kirstene Hair63,84063.
54133Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell67,67272.449.
54925Moray Douglas Ross70,64967.447.
55024Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie72,47771.247.75.711.
55519Banff and Buchan David Duguid67,60161.647.
5704Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont73,19171.553.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.