Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 20.0%010-103
LAB 27.1%7 15.0%06-61
LIB 6.8%4 12.0%00+04
Brexit 0.0%0 6.0%00+00
Green 0.2%0 4.0%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 43.0%160+1651
UKIP 0.2%0 0.0%00+00
Other 0.3%0 0.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Paisley and Renfrewshire North (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
32515Edinburgh South Ian Murray64,55374.110.941.
55491Glasgow North East Paul Sweeney59,93253.
63483Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Hugh Gaffney71,19863.
76470Glasgow South West Chris Stephens62,99156.28.627.
89457Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss64,34655.97.724.
105441Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty67,60265.29.524.
105441Glasgow East David Linden66,24254.610.425.
116430Rutherglen and Hamilton West Ged Killen80,09863.510.824.
117429Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows68,21561.511.324.
119427Glasgow North Patrick Grady53,86362.
121425Glasgow South Stewart McDonald69,12664.410.523.
122424Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan63,77360.99.922.
128418Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan58,85366.412.524.
130416Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,30169.
132414Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard65,89666.
136410Dundee West Chris Law62,64461.78.919.
138408Glenrothes Peter Grant66,37860.910.721.
140406Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black61,34468.010.721.
140406Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald66,55465.910.
147399Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray64,14659.
147399Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Lesley Laird72,72163.514.323.
172374Midlothian Danielle Rowley68,32866.316.522.
183363Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman75,67267.415.720.411.
187359Livingston Hannah Bardell81,20864.715.419.
193353Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman62,13059.213.716.510.56.84.348.
199347East Lothian Martin Whitfield79,09370.620.622.
200346East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron80,44267.316.418.
216330Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands67,43669.118.618.
223323Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock79,47371.218.217.710.
224322Falkirk Johnny McNally82,24065.417.
226320Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,16468.14.83.752.03.92.533.
233313Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown73,32763.417.715.
233313Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day86,18665.
244302Dunbartonshire East Jo Swinson66,30078.18.04.744.64.62.935.
252294Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley77,31365.323.
263283Dundee East Stewart Hosie65,85465.218.412.
278268Edinburgh West Christine Jardine71,50073.812.94.939.15.53.434.
278268Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson73,17464.822.314.
290256Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone46,86865.913.
301245Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry71,17869.424.413.
303243Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford53,63871.715.
303243Fife North East Stephen Gethins58,68571.315.
308238Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford68,99765.325.412.
330216Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry76,84468.721.65.317.56.03.845.
342204Renfrewshire East Paul Masterton70,06776.731.
360186Stirling Stephen Kerr66,41574.328.
367179Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara67,23071.524.
373173Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Bill Grant71,24164.931.
436110Ochil and South Perthshire Luke Graham76,76770.632.
440106Aberdeen South Ross Thomson64,96468.533.
45096Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack74,20669.534.
46977Gordon Colin Clark78,53168.431.73.815.
49452Perth and North Perthshire Pete Wishart71,74371.833.
51333Angus Kirstene Hair63,84063.
53611Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell67,67272.440.
53610Moray Douglas Ross70,64967.438.
5398Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie72,47771.238.93.612.74.72.937.
5415Banff and Buchan David Duguid67,60161.639.
5452Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont73,19171.544.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.