Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 26.6%01-112
LAB 27.1%7 24.1%05-52
LIB 6.8%4 6.6%00+04
UKIP 0.2%0 1.4%00+00
Green 0.2%0 1.4%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 38.9%60+641
Minor 0.3%0 1.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Ross Skye and Lochaber (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
SNP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
111458Edinburgh South Ian Murray64,55374.117.751.62.81.31.224.60.00.8LABLAB
145423Glasgow North East Paul Sweeney59,93253.011.639.62.01.11.144.00.00.7LABSNP
159409Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Hugh Gaffney71,19863.314.639.32.01.21.141.10.00.7LABSNP
168400Glasgow South West Chris Stephens62,99156.214.037.21.82.51.142.60.00.7SNPSNP
171397Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss64,34655.912.535.12.81.11.146.60.00.7SNPSNP
186382Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty67,60265.215.434.42.21.21.244.90.00.7SNPSNP
187381Glasgow East David Linden66,24254.616.935.31.62.61.240.80.01.6SNPSNP
188380Glasgow North Patrick Grady53,86362.113.231.23.41.110.839.60.00.7SNPSNP
192376Rutherglen and Hamilton West Ged Killen80,09863.517.534.34.12.21.239.20.01.5LABSNP
193375Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan63,77360.916.232.63.51.21.244.60.00.8SNPSNP
194374Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows68,21561.518.234.52.12.51.240.60.00.8SNPSNP
195373Glasgow South Stewart McDonald69,12664.417.133.33.21.21.243.20.00.8SNPSNP
197371Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,30169.614.830.51.61.21.142.67.50.7SNPSNP
199369Dundee West Chris Law62,64461.714.529.83.01.21.148.60.01.8SNPSNP
202366Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan58,85366.419.434.22.41.31.240.60.00.8SNPSNP
202366Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard65,89666.016.731.44.11.21.244.60.00.8SNPSNP
205363Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald66,55465.916.430.62.82.61.245.70.00.8SNPSNP
207361Glenrothes Peter Grant66,37860.917.531.42.91.21.244.90.00.8SNPSNP
207361Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black61,34468.017.531.33.11.21.242.80.02.9SNPSNP
212356Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray64,14659.221.133.82.11.31.239.70.00.8SNPSNP
214354Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Lesley Laird72,72163.521.233.52.42.41.238.40.00.8LABSNP
226342Midlothian Danielle Rowley68,32866.323.433.13.71.31.236.50.00.8LABSNP
232336Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman75,67267.422.630.65.81.31.337.70.00.8SNPSNP
236332Livingston Hannah Bardell81,20864.722.329.42.81.31.242.20.00.8SNPSNP
238330Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman62,13059.220.626.74.51.31.243.40.02.2SNPSNP
241328East Lothian Martin Whitfield79,09370.627.532.83.01.31.232.70.01.5LABLAB
241327East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron80,44267.323.328.42.92.41.241.00.00.8SNPSNP
256312Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands67,43669.125.528.53.11.31.239.60.00.8SNPSNP
258310Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock79,47371.225.127.94.51.34.336.20.00.8SNPSNP
262306Falkirk Johnny McNally82,24065.424.126.52.02.62.941.10.00.8SNPSNP
264304Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,16468.17.89.648.12.00.730.30.01.5LIBLIB
273295Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown73,32763.424.625.62.11.31.244.50.00.8SNPSNP
273295Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day86,18665.127.027.93.41.31.238.50.00.8SNPSNP
286282Dunbartonshire East Jo Swinson66,30078.113.112.140.11.01.032.00.00.6LIBLIB
288280Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley77,31365.330.028.62.32.31.234.70.00.8SNPSNP
296272Dundee East Stewart Hosie65,85465.225.322.73.71.31.245.00.00.8SNPSNP
304264Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson73,17464.829.224.22.31.31.241.00.00.8SNPSNP
314254Edinburgh West Christine Jardine71,50073.819.812.533.81.21.130.60.01.0LIBLIB
315253Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry71,17869.431.323.54.21.31.237.70.00.8SNPSNP
322246Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford68,99765.332.322.82.31.31.239.30.00.8SNPSNP
324244Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone46,86865.920.610.435.31.11.031.00.00.7LIBLIB
332236Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford53,63871.722.810.220.41.11.042.00.02.4SNPSNP
339229Fife North East Stephen Gethins58,68571.322.18.032.41.00.934.50.01.1SNPSNP
343226Renfrewshire East Paul Masterton70,06776.737.923.42.01.31.233.40.00.8CONCON
347221Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry76,84468.728.513.512.01.21.141.80.01.9SNPSNP
354214Stirling Stephen Kerr66,41574.335.018.83.31.31.238.90.01.5CONSNP
365204Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Bill Grant71,24164.938.120.61.81.31.236.30.00.8CONCON
383185Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara67,23071.531.210.517.81.11.037.80.00.7SNPSNP
399170Ochil and South Perthshire Luke Graham76,76770.639.416.73.11.31.237.40.00.8CONCON
401168Aberdeen South Ross Thomson64,96468.540.117.35.71.31.333.60.00.8CONCON
405164Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack74,20669.541.217.62.31.31.234.50.01.8CONCON
450119Gordon Colin Clark78,53168.438.79.911.31.01.037.60.00.6CONCON
47692Perth and North Perthshire Pete Wishart71,74371.840.28.74.90.90.943.90.00.6SNPSNP
49277Angus Kirstene Hair63,84063.043.110.93.21.01.040.30.00.6CONCON
50069Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell67,67272.447.313.83.91.11.132.00.00.7CONCON
52544Moray Douglas Ross70,64967.445.59.12.20.90.940.40.01.0CONCON
52643Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie72,47771.245.89.28.40.90.934.10.00.6CONCON
53732Banff and Buchan David Duguid67,60161.645.97.93.40.90.840.60.00.5CONCON
5645Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont73,19171.551.87.24.60.80.834.20.00.5CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.