Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 24.0%05-58
LAB 27.1%7 23.0%06-61
LIB 6.8%4 8.0%00+04
UKIP 0.2%0 2.0%00+00
Green 0.2%0 2.0%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 40.0%110+1146
Minor 0.3%0 1.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Stirling (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Falkirk (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
SNP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
92472Edinburgh South Ian Murray64,55374.115.050.44.21.91.925.80.00.8LABLAB
133430Glasgow North East Paul Sweeney59,93253.09.838.43.11.61.644.90.00.7LABSNP
144419Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Hugh Gaffney71,19863.312.338.13.31.81.742.10.00.7LABSNP
149414Glasgow South West Chris Stephens62,99156.211.936.03.13.11.743.60.00.7SNPSNP
152411Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss64,34655.910.633.94.01.61.647.60.00.7SNPSNP
171392Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty67,60265.213.133.13.51.81.846.00.00.7SNPSNP
172391Glasgow East David Linden66,24254.614.334.02.93.31.942.00.01.6SNPSNP
177386Glasgow North Patrick Grady53,86362.111.229.94.61.711.440.50.00.7SNPSNP
179384Rutherglen and Hamilton West Ged Killen80,09863.514.833.05.62.81.940.30.01.5LABSNP
179384Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows68,21561.515.433.23.53.21.941.90.00.8SNPSNP
180383Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan63,77360.913.731.44.81.81.845.70.00.8SNPSNP
180383Glasgow South Stewart McDonald69,12664.414.532.04.61.91.944.40.00.8SNPSNP
184379Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,30169.612.529.22.91.81.743.67.50.7SNPSNP
186377Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan58,85366.416.733.03.81.91.941.80.00.8SNPSNP
186377Dundee West Chris Law62,64461.712.328.54.31.71.749.70.01.8SNPSNP
187376Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard65,89666.014.130.15.51.91.845.80.00.8SNPSNP
187376Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald66,55465.913.929.44.13.21.846.80.00.8SNPSNP
187376Glenrothes Peter Grant66,37860.914.830.24.31.91.946.10.00.8SNPSNP
188375Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black61,34468.014.830.04.51.91.944.00.02.9SNPSNP
192371Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray64,14659.218.432.63.41.91.941.00.00.8SNPSNP
192371Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Lesley Laird72,72163.518.532.33.83.11.939.60.00.8LABSNP
207356Midlothian Danielle Rowley68,32866.320.631.85.11.91.937.70.00.8LABSNP
215348Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman75,67267.419.929.37.31.91.938.90.00.8SNPSNP
219344Livingston Hannah Bardell81,20864.719.628.14.21.91.943.40.00.8SNPSNP
225338Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman62,13059.217.925.55.91.91.944.60.02.2SNPSNP
226337East Lothian Martin Whitfield79,09370.624.831.54.41.91.933.90.01.5LABSNP
227336East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron80,44267.320.527.24.33.11.942.20.00.8SNPSNP
236327Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands67,43669.122.727.34.51.91.940.80.00.8SNPSNP
236327Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock79,47371.222.426.65.91.95.037.40.00.8SNPSNP
236327Falkirk Johnny McNally82,24065.421.425.33.43.33.642.30.00.8SNPSNP
240323Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown73,32763.421.924.33.51.91.945.70.00.8SNPSNP
240323Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day86,18665.124.326.64.81.91.939.70.00.8SNPSNP
240323Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,16468.16.68.849.32.21.030.70.01.5LIBLIB
255308Dunbartonshire East Jo Swinson66,30078.111.111.241.61.41.432.70.00.6LIBLIB
256307Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley77,31365.327.327.33.73.01.935.90.00.8SNPSNP
264299Dundee East Stewart Hosie65,85465.222.621.55.11.91.946.20.00.8SNPSNP
283280Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson73,17464.826.423.03.71.91.942.20.00.8SNPSNP
295268Edinburgh West Christine Jardine71,50073.817.111.535.51.71.731.60.00.9LIBLIB
298265Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry71,17869.428.622.25.61.91.938.90.00.8SNPSNP
304259Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford68,99765.329.621.53.71.91.940.50.00.8SNPSNP
304259Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone46,86865.917.89.636.91.61.631.90.00.6LIBLIB
314249Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford53,63871.720.19.422.01.61.643.00.02.4SNPSNP
319244Fife North East Stephen Gethins58,68571.319.37.433.91.51.435.40.01.1SNPSNP
324240Renfrewshire East Paul Masterton70,06776.735.222.23.41.91.934.60.00.8CONCON
324239Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry76,84468.725.712.513.51.81.742.90.01.9SNPSNP
328235Stirling Stephen Kerr66,41574.332.317.54.71.91.940.10.01.5CONSNP
337226Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Bill Grant71,24164.935.319.33.21.91.937.50.00.8CONSNP
349214Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara67,23071.528.49.719.31.61.638.70.00.7SNPSNP
368195Ochil and South Perthshire Luke Graham76,76770.636.715.54.61.91.938.60.00.8CONSNP
370194Aberdeen South Ross Thomson64,96468.537.316.07.21.91.934.80.00.8CONCON
373191Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack74,20669.538.516.33.71.91.935.70.01.8CONCON
403160Gordon Colin Clark78,53168.435.99.112.71.61.538.50.00.6CONSNP
431132Perth and North Perthshire Pete Wishart71,74371.837.58.06.11.51.544.90.00.6SNPSNP
440123Angus Kirstene Hair63,84063.040.310.14.41.61.641.40.00.7CONSNP
447117Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell67,67272.444.612.85.21.81.833.20.00.7CONCON
47292Moray Douglas Ross70,64967.442.78.53.31.51.541.40.01.0CONCON
47985Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie72,47771.243.08.59.71.51.535.10.00.6CONCON
50064Banff and Buchan David Duguid67,60161.643.27.34.51.41.441.60.00.6CONCON
54420Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont73,19171.549.16.75.71.41.435.20.00.6CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.