Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 26.0%03-310
LAB 27.1%7 24.3%06-61
LIB 6.8%4 7.0%00+04
UKIP 0.2%0 0.8%00+00
Green 0.2%0 1.7%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 40.0%90+944
Minor 0.3%0 0.2%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Renfrewshire East (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Falkirk (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
95473Edinburgh South Ian Murray64,55374.
134433Glasgow North East Paul Sweeney59,93253.
148419Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Hugh Gaffney71,19863.314.
152415Glasgow South West Chris Stephens62,99156.213.537.
155412Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss64,34655.912.
174393Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty67,60265.214.934.
178389Glasgow East David Linden66,24254.616.335.
179388Glasgow North Patrick Grady53,86362.112.831.43.70.511.
183384Rutherglen and Hamilton West Ged Killen80,09863.516.934.
184383Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan63,77360.915.632.
184383Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows68,21561.517.634.
186381Glasgow South Stewart McDonald69,12664.416.533.
187380Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,30169.614.330.
187380Dundee West Chris Law62,64461.714.
189378Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan58,85366.418.834.
189378Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard65,89666.
190377Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald66,55465.915.830.
192375Glenrothes Peter Grant66,37860.916.931.
192375Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black61,34468.016.931.
197370Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray64,14659.220.534.
198369Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Lesley Laird72,72163.520.633.
211356Midlothian Danielle Rowley68,32866.322.833.
221346Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman75,67267.422.
225342Livingston Hannah Bardell81,20864.721.729.
228339Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman62,13059.
231336East Lothian Martin Whitfield79,09370.626.933.
231336East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron80,44267.322.628.
238329Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands67,43669.124.928.
239328Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock79,47371.224.528.
240327Falkirk Johnny McNally82,24065.423.526.
246321Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,16468.17.59.748.71.50.830.80.00.9LIBLIB
248319Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown73,32763.424.
249318Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day86,18665.126.428.
263304Dunbartonshire East Jo Swinson66,30078.112.612.340.
267300Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley77,31365.329.428.
273294Dundee East Stewart Hosie65,85465.224.723.
291276Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson73,17464.828.624.
301266Edinburgh West Christine Jardine71,50073.819.212.634.50.51.431.50.00.2LIBLIB
303264Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry71,17869.430.723.
308259Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford68,99765.331.723.
311256Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone46,86865.919.910.536.
321246Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford53,63871.722.210.321.10.51.343.10.01.5SNPSNP
325242Fife North East Stephen Gethins58,68571.321.
327241Renfrewshire East Paul Masterton70,06776.737.323.
328239Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry76,84468.727.813.712.50.61.543.00.01.0SNPSNP
337230Stirling Stephen Kerr66,41574.334.419.
342225Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Bill Grant71,24164.937.420.
364203Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara67,23071.530.510.618.40.51.338.70.00.0SNPSNP
375193Ochil and South Perthshire Luke Graham76,76770.638.817.
378190Aberdeen South Ross Thomson64,96468.539.517.
385183Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack74,20669.540.617.
426141Gordon Colin Clark78,53168.438.
447120Perth and North Perthshire Pete Wishart71,74371.839.
454114Angus Kirstene Hair63,84063.042.511.
468100Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell67,67272.446.714.
50068Moray Douglas Ross70,64967.444.
50167Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie72,47771.
51751Banff and Buchan David Duguid67,60161.645.
55315Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont73,19171.551.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.