Scotland: Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 12.7%5 12.7%00+05
LAB 35.3%37 35.3%00+037
LIB 9.7%6 9.7%00+06
Reform 7.0%0 6.9%00+00
Green 3.8%0 3.8%00+00
SNP 30.0%9 30.0%00+09
Other 1.5%0 1.6%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Airdrie and Shotts' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Edinburgh West (prediction: LIB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Ayrshire North and Arran (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
SNP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
22512Airdrie and Shotts Kenneth Stevenson70,19952.24.651.52.08.00.030.90.03.0LABLAB
24510Coatbridge and Bellshill Frank McNally72,66753.33.649.81.76.73.133.40.01.7LABLAB
29505Dunbartonshire West Douglas McAllister69,07457.33.748.82.16.93.733.60.01.1LABLAB
31503Edinburgh South Ian Murray70,83966.18.553.45.93.99.016.50.02.8LABLAB
32502Rutherglen Michael Shanks72,67458.55.750.54.06.30.029.90.03.6LABLAB
34500Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Torcuil Crichton21,23563.74.849.52.85.10.021.10.016.7LABLAB
42492Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke Pamela Nash71,77754.46.249.12.17.63.030.90.01.0LABLAB
45489Glasgow North East Maureen Burke72,61047.03.545.91.76.67.232.30.02.9LABLAB
46488Glasgow West Patricia Ferguson69,02857.84.346.73.35.29.130.50.00.9LABLAB
48486Paisley and Renfrewshire South Johanna Baxter71,57457.75.447.53.27.14.131.60.01.2LABLAB
59475Midlothian Kirsty McNeill73,91659.87.348.75.97.40.030.10.00.7LABLAB
61473East Kilbride and Strathaven Joani Reid76,41561.17.648.62.37.23.829.20.01.4LABLAB
64470Paisley and Renfrewshire North Alison Suzanne Watt Taylor71,10358.46.447.13.37.73.531.80.00.1LABLAB
65469Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch Katrina Murray70,35058.24.745.23.27.74.135.10.00.1LABLAB
67467Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West Martin McCluskey70,12457.57.146.93.16.12.931.10.02.8LABLAB
68466Glasgow South West Zubir Ahmed68,87151.83.943.62.76.27.634.40.01.7LABLAB
69465Bathgate and Linlithgow Kirsteen Sullivan72,18558.37.447.05.28.33.327.20.01.6LABLAB
72462Hamilton and Clyde Valley Imogen Walker75,48055.810.950.03.67.80.027.40.00.4LABLAB
73461Glasgow East John Grady68,98851.44.843.92.56.67.633.20.01.5LABLAB
74460Glenrothes and Mid Fife Richard Baker70,65551.15.444.34.49.70.036.10.00.1LABLAB
79455Dunfermline and Dollar Graeme Downie72,82461.27.445.77.16.44.627.10.01.6LABLAB
80454Glasgow North Martin Rhodes67,57951.43.942.23.34.712.132.00.01.8LABLAB
81453Glasgow South Gordon McKee70,21960.43.841.83.14.113.031.90.02.3LABLAB
82452Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy Melanie Ward71,84556.87.845.73.97.63.828.00.03.2LABLAB
84450Lothian East Douglas Alexander75,45663.711.549.05.56.35.121.40.01.3LABLAB
94440Kilmarnock and Loudoun Lillian Jones74,62856.98.344.92.08.12.932.80.01.1LABLAB
98436Alloa and Grangemouth Brian Leishman70,68058.37.643.82.89.23.428.90.53.8LABLAB
102432Edinburgh East and Musselburgh Chris Murray76,18859.85.741.34.34.610.133.10.00.9LABLAB
104430Edinburgh North and Leith Tracy Gilbert78,41163.16.642.17.83.610.827.30.01.7LABLAB
113421Falkirk Euan Stainbank73,58457.98.443.12.67.94.031.30.02.9LABLAB
118415Dundee Central Chris Law74,22152.34.038.36.26.00.040.00.55.0SNPSNP
129405Livingston Gregor Poynton78,04357.57.740.94.58.83.833.00.01.3LABLAB
168366Ayrshire Central Alan Gemmell69,41359.714.843.72.48.22.527.10.01.4LABLAB
169365Edinburgh South West Scott Arthur73,78461.912.140.96.64.57.527.20.01.1LABLAB
176358Renfrewshire East Blair McDougall73,38068.416.943.72.34.73.026.90.02.6LABLAB
184350Ayrshire North and Arran Irene Campbell72,17658.614.139.82.48.03.131.40.01.2LABLAB
255278Arbroath and Broughty Ferry Stephen Patrick Gethins76,14957.915.533.45.18.50.035.30.02.2SNPSNP
264269Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman75,92555.413.930.46.18.93.034.50.03.1SNPSNP
267266Mid Dunbartonshire Susan Murray73,59671.74.620.942.43.93.224.00.00.9LIBLIB
281253Stirling and Strathallan Chris Kane76,28465.319.033.95.16.34.631.00.00.1LABLAB
287247Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Elaine Stewart70,34058.222.636.52.68.62.126.30.01.3LABLAB
330203Edinburgh West Christine Anne Jardine76,49068.65.515.050.84.24.019.40.01.2LIBLIB
347186Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire Angus MacDonald77,92761.75.213.037.86.14.233.30.00.5LIBLIB
364169Fife North East Wendy Chamberlain69,76261.23.99.454.74.93.823.20.00.1LIBLIB
374159Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,23660.42.87.255.17.69.817.30.00.2LIBLIB
381152Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone74,62761.74.07.449.47.23.526.60.01.8LIBLIB
407126Aberdeen South Stephen Flynn77,32859.924.324.76.36.83.432.80.01.5SNPSNP
420113Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber Brendan O'Hara71,75662.520.819.216.46.70.034.70.02.2SNPSNP
43797Dumfries and Galloway John Cooper78,54158.329.525.74.69.32.727.50.00.6CONCON
48153Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell71,90061.533.923.06.38.63.324.30.00.6CONCON
48350Perth and Kinross-shire Pete Wishart77,26164.829.518.07.45.90.037.80.01.4SNPSNP
48647Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Graham Leadbitter77,07260.429.917.88.17.43.632.10.01.0SNPSNP
50033Angus and Perthshire Glens Dave Doogan76,66861.830.114.46.76.80.040.40.01.6SNPSNP
52113Gordon and Buchan Harriet Cross69,60563.032.810.716.78.80.030.90.00.1CONCON
52410Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Campbell Bowie72,99467.135.613.113.07.12.128.60.00.7CONCON
5249Aberdeenshire North and Moray East Seamus Logan70,05854.532.710.27.314.50.035.20.00.1SNPSNP
5295Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont76,43860.940.513.67.97.13.226.30.01.3CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.