Scotland: Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 12.7%5 10.5%01-14
LAB 35.3%37 17.0%036-361
LIB 9.7%6 8.0%00+06
Reform 7.0%0 19.5%00+00
Green 3.8%0 8.0%00+00
SNP 30.0%9 34.0%370+3746
Other 1.5%0 3.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Edinburgh South' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Aberdeenshire North and Moray East', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Aberdeenshire North and Moray East (prediction: SNP), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Edinburgh South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
Reform
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
SNP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
43284Edinburgh South Ian Murray70,83966.16.126.54.220.416.621.70.04.5LABLAB
51275Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Torcuil Crichton21,23563.73.524.22.020.56.725.90.017.3LABSNP
57269Glasgow West Patricia Ferguson69,02857.83.222.12.419.215.334.90.03.1LABSNP
57269Rutherglen Michael Shanks72,67458.54.224.72.921.86.934.70.04.8LABSNP
59267Edinburgh North and Leith Tracy Gilbert78,41163.14.720.65.617.916.131.80.03.3LABSNP
60266Coatbridge and Bellshill Frank McNally72,66753.32.723.51.221.19.937.90.03.7LABSNP
61265Glasgow South Gordon McKee70,21960.42.819.82.217.318.236.10.03.6LABSNP
61265Lothian East Douglas Alexander75,45663.78.724.13.921.811.726.30.03.4LABSNP
61265Renfrewshire East Blair McDougall73,38068.414.121.41.619.18.531.40.03.9LABSNP
64262Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West Martin McCluskey70,12457.55.122.82.220.99.035.80.04.2LABSNP
65261Glasgow North Martin Rhodes67,57951.42.919.92.318.017.336.20.03.4LABSNP
65261Dunbartonshire West Douglas McAllister69,07457.32.823.01.521.110.338.00.03.3LABSNP
66260Edinburgh East and Musselburgh Chris Murray76,18859.84.119.63.117.915.237.20.02.9LABSNP
68258Airdrie and Shotts Kenneth Stevenson70,19952.23.424.71.423.27.135.60.04.5LABSNP
69257Edinburgh South West Scott Arthur73,78461.99.420.24.718.712.431.70.02.9LABSNP
69257East Kilbride and Strathaven Joani Reid76,41561.15.523.41.621.910.433.80.03.5LABSNP
72254Hamilton and Clyde Valley Imogen Walker75,48055.88.124.32.623.16.832.20.03.0LABSNP
72254Midlothian Kirsty McNeill73,91659.85.323.64.222.46.534.90.03.1LABSNP
72254Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke Pamela Nash71,77754.44.523.41.522.29.735.50.03.3LABSNP
72254Glasgow North East Maureen Burke72,61047.02.621.71.220.513.236.60.04.1LABSNP
73253Paisley and Renfrewshire South Johanna Baxter71,57457.73.922.62.321.410.436.10.03.3LABSNP
73253Dunfermline and Dollar Graeme Downie72,82461.25.322.45.121.310.531.80.03.4LABSNP
73253Glasgow South West Zubir Ahmed68,87151.82.920.51.919.713.138.60.03.4LABSNP
76250Glasgow East John Grady68,98851.43.520.71.820.213.237.40.03.3LABSNP
76250Paisley and Renfrewshire North Alison Suzanne Watt Taylor71,10358.44.622.42.421.99.736.30.02.7LABSNP
78248Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch Katrina Murray70,35058.23.521.22.321.39.939.30.02.6LABSNP
78248Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy Melanie Ward71,84556.85.622.42.822.59.732.60.04.3LABSNP
79247Bathgate and Linlithgow Kirsteen Sullivan72,18558.35.422.93.723.29.531.90.03.5LABSNP
83243Kilmarnock and Loudoun Lillian Jones74,62856.95.921.51.422.28.637.20.03.1LABSNP
83243Dundee Central Chris Law74,22152.33.018.74.419.64.444.30.94.7SNPSNP
85241Falkirk Euan Stainbank73,58457.96.021.01.822.19.335.80.04.0LABSNP
85241Ayrshire Central Alan Gemmell69,41359.712.021.21.722.48.031.50.03.2LABSNP
93233Alloa and Grangemouth Brian Leishman70,68058.35.521.32.023.58.933.41.14.2LABSNP
93233Ayrshire North and Arran Irene Campbell72,17658.611.319.21.721.57.835.60.03.0LABSNP
94232Glenrothes and Mid Fife Richard Baker70,65551.14.021.03.223.45.640.40.02.6LABSNP
94232Stirling and Strathallan Chris Kane76,28465.316.216.33.618.88.135.00.02.1LABSNP
97229Livingston Gregor Poynton78,04357.55.519.73.222.58.737.30.03.1LABSNP
111215Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock Elaine Stewart70,34058.219.817.61.921.56.130.40.02.8LABSNP
119207Perth and Kinross-shire Pete Wishart77,26164.835.82.11.87.02.548.80.02.0SNPSNP
120206Arbroath and Broughty Ferry Stephen Patrick Gethins76,14957.912.716.23.621.23.939.30.03.2SNPSNP
122204Angus and Perthshire Glens Dave Doogan76,66861.835.71.61.67.02.249.90.02.0SNPSNP
126200Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Campbell Bowie72,99467.143.51.63.57.43.039.80.01.4CONCON
127199Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont76,43860.946.91.71.97.53.536.70.01.7CONCON
130196Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Graham Leadbitter77,07260.436.62.82.38.94.043.60.01.8SNPSNP
130196Aberdeen South Stephen Flynn77,32859.921.512.14.518.24.936.40.02.4SNPSNP
134192Gordon and Buchan Harriet Cross69,60563.042.01.14.77.61.841.80.00.9CONCON
138188Fife North East Wendy Chamberlain69,76261.21.00.658.47.43.328.30.00.9LIBLIB
138188Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell71,90061.538.55.72.512.54.534.60.01.8CONCON
139187Edinburgh West Christine Anne Jardine76,49068.62.02.355.29.34.025.50.01.8LIBLIB
139187Dunbartonshire Mid Susan Murray73,59671.71.31.749.98.74.232.30.01.9LIBLIB
150176Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber Brendan O'Hara71,75662.517.98.913.516.62.637.90.02.5SNPSNP
150176Dumfries and Galloway John Cooper78,54158.329.410.12.717.84.433.60.01.9CONSNP
153173Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone74,62761.71.10.653.58.62.931.80.01.6LIBLIB
157169Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire Angus MacDonald77,92761.71.41.043.69.03.939.80.01.3LIBLIB
178148Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,23660.42.03.952.214.57.219.60.00.7LIBLIB
192134Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman75,92555.49.012.13.823.95.742.00.03.5SNPSNP
194132Aberdeenshire North and Moray East Seamus Logan70,05854.536.81.72.913.91.842.00.00.9SNPSNP

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.