Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 20.0%010-103
LAB 27.1%7 15.0%06-61
LIB 6.8%4 12.0%00+04
Brexit 0.0%0 6.0%00+00
Green 0.2%0 4.0%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 43.0%160+1651
UKIP 0.2%0 0.0%00+00
Other 0.3%0 0.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Paisley and Renfrewshire North (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Brexit
%
Green
%
SNP
%
UKIP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
32515Edinburgh South Ian Murray64,55374.110.941.48.46.34.028.90.00.00.0LABLAB
55491Glasgow North East Paul Sweeney59,93253.07.129.46.85.53.447.70.00.00.0LABSNP
63483Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Hugh Gaffney71,19863.39.029.17.25.93.745.10.00.00.0LABSNP
76470Glasgow South West Chris Stephens62,99156.28.627.07.36.23.947.00.00.00.0SNPSNP
89457Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss64,34655.97.724.97.85.63.550.40.00.00.0SNPSNP
105441Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty67,60265.29.524.27.56.03.849.00.00.00.0SNPSNP
105441Glasgow East David Linden66,24254.610.425.17.66.94.345.80.00.00.0SNPSNP
116430Rutherglen and Hamilton West Ged Killen80,09863.510.824.110.26.84.343.90.00.00.0LABSNP
117429Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows68,21561.511.324.38.16.74.245.40.00.00.0SNPSNP
119427Glasgow North Patrick Grady53,86362.18.121.08.45.713.343.40.00.00.0SNPSNP
121425Glasgow South Stewart McDonald69,12664.410.523.18.76.33.947.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
122424Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan63,77360.99.922.48.96.13.948.70.00.00.0SNPSNP
128418Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan58,85366.412.524.08.16.44.045.00.00.00.0SNPSNP
130416Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,30169.69.120.38.78.15.148.80.00.00.0SNPSNP
132414Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard65,89666.010.221.29.76.23.948.80.00.00.0SNPSNP
136410Dundee West Chris Law62,64461.78.919.68.56.23.953.00.00.00.0SNPSNP
138408Glenrothes Peter Grant66,37860.910.721.28.56.34.049.20.00.00.0SNPSNP
140406Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black61,34468.010.721.19.26.94.347.70.00.00.0SNPSNP
140406Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald66,55465.910.120.48.56.54.150.30.00.00.0SNPSNP
147399Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray64,14659.214.223.67.76.44.044.10.00.00.0SNPSNP
147399Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Lesley Laird72,72163.514.323.48.36.74.243.10.00.00.0LABSNP
172374Midlothian Danielle Rowley68,32866.316.522.99.46.44.040.90.00.00.0LABSNP
183363Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman75,67267.415.720.411.56.44.042.00.00.00.0SNPSNP
187359Livingston Hannah Bardell81,20864.715.419.28.56.44.046.60.00.00.0SNPSNP
193353Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman62,13059.213.716.510.56.84.348.20.00.00.0SNPSNP
199347East Lothian Martin Whitfield79,09370.620.622.68.86.64.137.20.00.00.0LABSNP
200346East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron80,44267.316.418.28.86.74.245.70.00.00.0SNPSNP
216330Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands67,43669.118.618.48.76.44.043.90.00.00.0SNPSNP
223323Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock79,47371.218.217.710.16.47.140.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
224322Falkirk Johnny McNally82,24065.417.216.38.06.85.945.80.00.00.0SNPSNP
226320Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,16468.14.83.752.03.92.533.00.00.00.0LIBLIB
233313Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown73,32763.417.715.47.76.44.048.80.00.00.0SNPSNP
233313Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day86,18665.120.117.79.06.44.042.80.00.00.0SNPSNP
244302Dunbartonshire East Jo Swinson66,30078.18.04.744.64.62.935.00.00.00.0LIBLIB
252294Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley77,31365.323.118.48.26.74.239.40.00.00.0SNPSNP
263283Dundee East Stewart Hosie65,85465.218.412.69.36.44.049.30.00.00.0SNPSNP
278268Edinburgh West Christine Jardine71,50073.812.94.939.15.53.434.20.00.00.0LIBLIB
278268Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson73,17464.822.314.07.96.44.045.40.00.00.0SNPSNP
290256Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone46,86865.913.64.040.14.93.134.20.00.00.0LIBLIB
301245Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry71,17869.424.413.39.96.44.042.10.00.00.0SNPSNP
303243Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford53,63871.715.94.025.65.43.445.70.00.00.0SNPSNP
303243Fife North East Stephen Gethins58,68571.315.13.136.84.52.937.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
308238Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford68,99765.325.412.67.96.44.043.70.00.00.0SNPSNP
330216Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry76,84468.721.65.317.56.03.845.90.00.00.0SNPSNP
342204Renfrewshire East Paul Masterton70,06776.731.013.27.66.44.037.70.00.00.0CONSNP
360186Stirling Stephen Kerr66,41574.328.18.69.26.64.143.40.00.00.0CONSNP
367179Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara67,23071.524.34.122.55.03.141.00.00.00.0SNPSNP
373173Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Bill Grant71,24164.931.210.47.56.44.040.60.00.00.0CONSNP
436110Ochil and South Perthshire Luke Graham76,76770.632.56.58.86.44.041.80.00.00.0CONSNP
440106Aberdeen South Ross Thomson64,96468.533.27.111.46.44.038.00.00.00.0CONSNP
45096Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack74,20669.534.37.48.26.74.239.20.00.00.0CONSNP
46977Gordon Colin Clark78,53168.431.73.815.84.83.040.80.00.00.0CONSNP
49452Perth and North Perthshire Pete Wishart71,74371.833.33.49.04.52.946.90.00.00.0SNPSNP
51333Angus Kirstene Hair63,84063.036.24.27.75.03.243.70.00.00.0CONSNP
53611Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell67,67272.440.45.49.05.73.635.90.00.00.0CONCON
53610Moray Douglas Ross70,64967.438.63.66.44.83.043.70.00.00.0CONSNP
5398Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie72,47771.238.93.612.74.72.937.20.00.00.0CONCON
5415Banff and Buchan David Duguid67,60161.639.03.17.34.42.743.50.00.00.0CONSNP
5452Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont73,19171.544.92.88.44.22.637.00.00.00.0CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.