Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 26.0%03-310
LAB 27.1%7 24.3%06-61
LIB 6.8%4 7.0%00+04
UKIP 0.2%0 0.8%00+00
Green 0.2%0 1.7%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 40.0%90+944
Minor 0.3%0 0.2%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Ross Skye and Lochaber (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
SNP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
103466Edinburgh South Ian Murray64,55374.117.151.83.20.61.625.80.00.0LABLAB
143425Glasgow North East Paul Sweeney59,93253.011.239.92.20.51.344.90.00.0LABSNP
154414Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Hugh Gaffney71,19863.314.139.52.30.61.442.10.00.0LABSNP
161407Glasgow South West Chris Stephens62,99156.213.537.42.11.91.443.60.00.0SNPSNP
164404Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss64,34655.912.135.43.10.51.347.60.00.0SNPSNP
182386Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty67,60265.214.934.62.50.61.546.00.00.0SNPSNP
184384Glasgow East David Linden66,24254.616.335.51.82.01.642.10.00.7SNPSNP
186382Glasgow North Patrick Grady53,86362.112.831.43.70.511.140.50.00.0SNPSNP
190378Rutherglen and Hamilton West Ged Killen80,09863.516.934.54.51.51.640.40.00.6LABSNP
190378Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan63,77360.915.632.83.80.61.545.70.00.0SNPSNP
191377Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows68,21561.517.634.72.41.91.641.80.00.0SNPSNP
191377Glasgow South Stewart McDonald69,12664.416.533.53.50.61.544.40.00.0SNPSNP
193375Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,30169.614.330.71.90.61.443.67.50.0SNPSNP
196372Dundee West Chris Law62,64461.714.030.03.30.61.549.80.00.9SNPSNP
196372Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan58,85366.418.834.52.80.61.641.80.00.0SNPSNP
197371Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard65,89666.016.131.64.50.61.545.70.00.0SNPSNP
199369Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald66,55465.915.830.83.12.01.546.80.00.0SNPSNP
202366Glenrothes Peter Grant66,37860.916.931.63.20.61.546.10.00.0SNPSNP
203365Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black61,34468.016.931.53.40.61.644.20.01.7SNPSNP
209359Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray64,14659.220.534.02.40.61.640.90.00.0SNPSNP
211357Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Lesley Laird72,72163.520.633.82.71.81.639.60.00.0LABSNP
223345Midlothian Danielle Rowley68,32866.322.833.34.10.61.637.70.00.0LABSNP
229339Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman75,67267.422.030.86.20.61.638.80.00.0SNPSNP
232336Livingston Hannah Bardell81,20864.721.729.63.10.61.643.40.00.0SNPSNP
237331Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman62,13059.220.026.94.90.61.644.70.01.2SNPSNP
239329East Lothian Martin Whitfield79,09370.626.933.03.40.61.633.90.00.5LABSNP
239329East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron80,44267.322.628.63.21.81.642.20.00.0SNPSNP
248320Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands67,43669.124.928.83.40.61.640.80.00.0SNPSNP
250318Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock79,47371.224.528.14.80.64.637.40.00.0SNPSNP
253315Falkirk Johnny McNally82,24065.423.526.72.31.93.242.30.00.0SNPSNP
262306Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,16468.17.59.748.71.50.830.80.00.9LIBLIB
264304Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown73,32763.424.025.82.40.61.645.70.00.0SNPSNP
264304Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day86,18665.126.428.13.70.61.639.70.00.0SNPSNP
281287Dunbartonshire East Jo Swinson66,30078.112.612.340.80.41.132.70.00.0LIBLIB
282286Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley77,31365.329.428.82.71.71.635.90.00.0SNPSNP
288280Dundee East Stewart Hosie65,85465.224.723.04.00.61.646.20.00.0SNPSNP
301267Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson73,17464.828.624.42.60.61.642.20.00.0SNPSNP
308260Edinburgh West Christine Jardine71,50073.819.212.634.50.51.431.50.00.2LIBLIB
310258Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry71,17869.430.723.74.60.61.638.90.00.0SNPSNP
317251Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford68,99765.331.723.02.60.61.640.50.00.0SNPSNP
321247Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone46,86865.919.910.536.00.51.231.80.00.0LIBLIB
328240Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford53,63871.722.210.321.10.51.343.10.01.5SNPSNP
335233Fife North East Stephen Gethins58,68571.321.48.233.00.51.235.30.00.4SNPSNP
339230Renfrewshire East Paul Masterton70,06776.737.323.62.30.61.634.60.00.0CONCON
340228Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry76,84468.727.813.712.50.61.543.00.01.0SNPSNP
348220Stirling Stephen Kerr66,41574.334.419.03.70.61.640.10.00.6CONSNP
355213Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Bill Grant71,24164.937.420.82.10.61.637.50.00.0CONSNP
375193Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara67,23071.530.510.618.40.51.338.70.00.0SNPSNP
392177Ochil and South Perthshire Luke Graham76,76770.638.817.03.50.61.638.60.00.0CONCON
393176Aberdeen South Ross Thomson64,96468.539.517.56.10.61.634.80.00.0CONCON
400169Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack74,20669.540.617.82.70.61.635.80.00.9CONCON
445123Gordon Colin Clark78,53168.438.010.011.80.51.238.50.00.0CONSNP
467101Perth and North Perthshire Pete Wishart71,74371.839.68.85.20.51.244.80.00.0SNPSNP
47495Angus Kirstene Hair63,84063.042.511.03.50.51.341.30.00.0CONCON
49673Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell67,67272.446.714.04.20.61.433.10.00.0CONCON
51851Moray Douglas Ross70,64967.444.99.32.50.51.241.40.00.4CONCON
52148Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie72,47771.245.29.48.80.51.235.00.00.0CONCON
53237Banff and Buchan David Duguid67,60161.645.38.03.70.41.141.50.00.0CONCON
5618Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont73,19171.551.27.34.90.41.135.10.00.0CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.