Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 25.1%6 23.0%03-33
LAB 18.6%1 19.6%00+01
LIB 9.5%4 6.0%04-40
Reform 0.5%0 0.4%00+00
Green 1.0%0 2.1%00+00
SNP 45.0%48 47.7%70+755
Other 0.3%0 1.3%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Banff and Buchan, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Argyll and Bute (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Edinburgh West (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
SNP
%
OTH
%
2019
Win
Pred
Win
70497Edinburgh South Ian Murray66,18875.114.448.84.20.03.727.91.0LABLAB
77489Glasgow North East Anne McLaughlin61,07555.59.239.91.80.00.548.10.5SNPSNP
95471Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss69,23057.98.133.72.70.04.250.70.6SNPSNP
97469Glasgow South West Chris Stephens64,57557.110.135.32.11.60.749.50.7SNPSNP
98468Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Steven Bonnar72,94366.111.135.91.80.02.248.40.5SNPSNP
103463Glasgow North Patrick Grady57,13063.39.232.33.60.74.448.90.8SNPSNP
107459Rutherglen and Hamilton West Margaret Ferrier80,91866.513.235.22.90.00.846.11.9SNPSNP
109457Glasgow East David Linden67,38157.113.033.92.30.00.749.40.7SNPSNP
120446Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows68,85664.514.233.02.10.00.748.12.1SNPSNP
121445Glasgow South Stewart McDonald70,89166.911.630.03.20.83.550.20.8SNPSNP
127439Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray64,01162.115.532.72.00.02.446.80.7SNPSNP
129437Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan60,62265.813.830.43.50.00.950.50.9SNPSNP
129437Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty66,51767.912.529.12.30.02.651.22.2SNPSNP
131435Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan63,40262.713.329.43.80.00.951.70.9SNPSNP
131435Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Neale Hanvey72,85364.517.733.73.41.84.537.91.0SNPSNP
135431Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard69,42468.912.027.53.80.05.250.60.9SNPSNP
138428Dundee West Chris Law64,43164.510.925.23.32.30.956.01.5SNPSNP
161405Midlothian Owen Thompson70,54468.419.330.73.90.01.044.11.0SNPSNP
164402Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald66,07969.114.225.43.60.00.955.10.9SNPSNP
164402Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black64,38566.915.426.43.70.00.952.60.9SNPSNP
171395Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,10668.619.829.12.40.00.847.10.8SNPSNP
172394Glenrothes Peter Grant65,67263.314.623.93.52.31.053.71.0SNPSNP
182384Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock81,33673.016.323.56.10.74.747.11.6SNPSNP
184382Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman76,65269.818.525.54.40.03.447.11.1SNPSNP
184382East Lothian Kenny MacAskill81,60071.724.130.53.80.01.038.71.8SNPSNP
190376East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron81,22469.418.823.73.70.03.048.82.0SNPSNP
194372Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands72,00769.020.224.14.10.01.049.61.0SNPSNP
198368Livingston Hannah Bardell82,28566.319.922.83.50.03.649.31.0SNPSNP
210356Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,21167.78.78.835.82.92.039.02.7LIBSNP
219347Dunbartonshire East Amy Callaghan66,07580.312.411.127.80.03.741.93.1SNPSNP
221345Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown74,51763.921.819.82.80.00.953.01.7SNPSNP
226340Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day87,04466.422.319.44.21.63.247.12.2SNPSNP
227339Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman62,48959.917.714.44.22.03.556.91.2SNPSNP
232334Edinburgh West Christine Jardine72,50775.215.010.230.90.03.938.02.0LIBSNP
241325Fife North East Wendy Chamberlain60,90575.311.45.734.10.01.945.01.9LIBSNP
245321Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone46,93067.014.58.428.22.72.241.92.1LIBSNP
247319Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry73,50170.922.215.65.20.93.750.81.5SNPSNP
249317Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford54,23073.515.28.315.61.32.153.53.9SNPSNP
249317Dundee East Stewart Hosie66,21068.421.814.54.30.01.156.51.8SNPSNP
255311Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley77,65968.329.721.23.10.00.944.20.9SNPSNP
272294Falkirk Johnny McNally84,47266.123.412.23.90.04.455.11.0SNPSNP
284282Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson73,53465.528.414.72.40.03.150.50.8SNPSNP
303263Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford69,74266.732.415.02.70.00.848.30.8SNPSNP
303263Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry78,05970.226.49.05.91.54.551.41.4SNPSNP
311255Renfrewshire East Kirsten Oswald72,23276.632.713.54.10.01.147.61.1SNPSNP
320246Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Allan Dorans71,97064.736.114.22.50.00.845.50.8SNPSNP
320246Stirling Alyn Smith68,47376.831.19.03.00.02.753.30.9SNPSNP
324242Aberdeen South Stephen Flynn65,71969.433.59.86.00.01.348.01.3SNPSNP
327239Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara66,52572.232.88.47.80.01.647.81.6SNPSNP
338228Ochil and South Perthshire John Nicolson78,77673.436.39.53.00.00.948.71.5SNPSNP
352214Perth and North Perthshire Pete Wishart72,60074.534.25.73.80.91.153.21.1SNPSNP
374192Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack74,58069.041.710.23.30.00.942.90.9CONSNP
379187Gordon Richard Thomson79,62970.238.86.85.80.01.346.01.3SNPSNP
380186Angus Dave Doogan63,95267.537.95.73.20.00.951.40.9SNPSNP
402165Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell68,33071.943.69.54.00.01.040.91.0CONCON
403163Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie72,64073.440.26.06.40.01.444.51.4CONSNP
428138Moray Douglas Ross71,03568.742.95.82.60.00.846.31.7CONSNP
464103Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont74,51871.346.05.94.40.01.141.51.1CONCON
49968Banff and Buchan David Duguid66,65563.447.75.03.00.00.942.60.9CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.