| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 12.7% | 5 | 10.5% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| LAB | 35.3% | 37 | 17.0% | 0 | 36 | -36 | 1 |
| LIB | 9.7% | 6 | 8.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 6 |
| Reform | 7.0% | 0 | 19.5% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Green | 3.8% | 0 | 8.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| SNP | 30.0% | 9 | 34.0% | 37 | 0 | +37 | 46 |
| Other | 1.5% | 0 | 3.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Edinburgh South' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Aberdeenshire North and Moray East', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Aberdeenshire North and Moray East (prediction: SNP), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Edinburgh South (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | SNP % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 284 | Edinburgh South | Ian Murray | 70,839 | 66.1 | 6.1 | 26.5 | 4.2 | 20.4 | 16.6 | 21.7 | 0.0 | 4.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 51 | 275 | Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) | Torcuil Crichton | 21,235 | 63.7 | 3.5 | 24.2 | 2.0 | 20.5 | 6.7 | 25.9 | 0.0 | 17.3 | LAB | SNP |
| 57 | 269 | Glasgow West | Patricia Ferguson | 69,028 | 57.8 | 3.2 | 22.1 | 2.4 | 19.2 | 15.3 | 34.9 | 0.0 | 3.1 | LAB | SNP |
| 57 | 269 | Rutherglen | Michael Shanks | 72,674 | 58.5 | 4.2 | 24.7 | 2.9 | 21.8 | 6.9 | 34.7 | 0.0 | 4.8 | LAB | SNP |
| 59 | 267 | Edinburgh North and Leith | Tracy Gilbert | 78,411 | 63.1 | 4.7 | 20.6 | 5.6 | 17.9 | 16.1 | 31.8 | 0.0 | 3.3 | LAB | SNP |
| 60 | 266 | Coatbridge and Bellshill | Frank McNally | 72,667 | 53.3 | 2.7 | 23.5 | 1.2 | 21.1 | 9.9 | 37.9 | 0.0 | 3.7 | LAB | SNP |
| 61 | 265 | Glasgow South | Gordon McKee | 70,219 | 60.4 | 2.8 | 19.8 | 2.2 | 17.3 | 18.2 | 36.1 | 0.0 | 3.6 | LAB | SNP |
| 61 | 265 | Lothian East | Douglas Alexander | 75,456 | 63.7 | 8.7 | 24.1 | 3.9 | 21.8 | 11.7 | 26.3 | 0.0 | 3.4 | LAB | SNP |
| 61 | 265 | Renfrewshire East | Blair McDougall | 73,380 | 68.4 | 14.1 | 21.4 | 1.6 | 19.1 | 8.5 | 31.4 | 0.0 | 3.9 | LAB | SNP |
| 64 | 262 | Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West | Martin McCluskey | 70,124 | 57.5 | 5.1 | 22.8 | 2.2 | 20.9 | 9.0 | 35.8 | 0.0 | 4.2 | LAB | SNP |
| 65 | 261 | Glasgow North | Martin Rhodes | 67,579 | 51.4 | 2.9 | 19.9 | 2.3 | 18.0 | 17.3 | 36.2 | 0.0 | 3.4 | LAB | SNP |
| 65 | 261 | Dunbartonshire West | Douglas McAllister | 69,074 | 57.3 | 2.8 | 23.0 | 1.5 | 21.1 | 10.3 | 38.0 | 0.0 | 3.3 | LAB | SNP |
| 66 | 260 | Edinburgh East and Musselburgh | Chris Murray | 76,188 | 59.8 | 4.1 | 19.6 | 3.1 | 17.9 | 15.2 | 37.2 | 0.0 | 2.9 | LAB | SNP |
| 68 | 258 | Airdrie and Shotts | Kenneth Stevenson | 70,199 | 52.2 | 3.4 | 24.7 | 1.4 | 23.2 | 7.1 | 35.6 | 0.0 | 4.5 | LAB | SNP |
| 69 | 257 | Edinburgh South West | Scott Arthur | 73,784 | 61.9 | 9.4 | 20.2 | 4.7 | 18.7 | 12.4 | 31.7 | 0.0 | 2.9 | LAB | SNP |
| 69 | 257 | East Kilbride and Strathaven | Joani Reid | 76,415 | 61.1 | 5.5 | 23.4 | 1.6 | 21.9 | 10.4 | 33.8 | 0.0 | 3.5 | LAB | SNP |
| 72 | 254 | Hamilton and Clyde Valley | Imogen Walker | 75,480 | 55.8 | 8.1 | 24.3 | 2.6 | 23.1 | 6.8 | 32.2 | 0.0 | 3.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 72 | 254 | Midlothian | Kirsty McNeill | 73,916 | 59.8 | 5.3 | 23.6 | 4.2 | 22.4 | 6.5 | 34.9 | 0.0 | 3.1 | LAB | SNP |
| 72 | 254 | Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke | Pamela Nash | 71,777 | 54.4 | 4.5 | 23.4 | 1.5 | 22.2 | 9.7 | 35.5 | 0.0 | 3.3 | LAB | SNP |
| 72 | 254 | Glasgow North East | Maureen Burke | 72,610 | 47.0 | 2.6 | 21.7 | 1.2 | 20.5 | 13.2 | 36.6 | 0.0 | 4.1 | LAB | SNP |
| 73 | 253 | Paisley and Renfrewshire South | Johanna Baxter | 71,574 | 57.7 | 3.9 | 22.6 | 2.3 | 21.4 | 10.4 | 36.1 | 0.0 | 3.3 | LAB | SNP |
| 73 | 253 | Dunfermline and Dollar | Graeme Downie | 72,824 | 61.2 | 5.3 | 22.4 | 5.1 | 21.3 | 10.5 | 31.8 | 0.0 | 3.4 | LAB | SNP |
| 73 | 253 | Glasgow South West | Zubir Ahmed | 68,871 | 51.8 | 2.9 | 20.5 | 1.9 | 19.7 | 13.1 | 38.6 | 0.0 | 3.4 | LAB | SNP |
| 76 | 250 | Glasgow East | John Grady | 68,988 | 51.4 | 3.5 | 20.7 | 1.8 | 20.2 | 13.2 | 37.4 | 0.0 | 3.3 | LAB | SNP |
| 76 | 250 | Paisley and Renfrewshire North | Alison Suzanne Watt Taylor | 71,103 | 58.4 | 4.6 | 22.4 | 2.4 | 21.9 | 9.7 | 36.3 | 0.0 | 2.7 | LAB | SNP |
| 78 | 248 | Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch | Katrina Murray | 70,350 | 58.2 | 3.5 | 21.2 | 2.3 | 21.3 | 9.9 | 39.3 | 0.0 | 2.6 | LAB | SNP |
| 78 | 248 | Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy | Melanie Ward | 71,845 | 56.8 | 5.6 | 22.4 | 2.8 | 22.5 | 9.7 | 32.6 | 0.0 | 4.3 | LAB | SNP |
| 79 | 247 | Bathgate and Linlithgow | Kirsteen Sullivan | 72,185 | 58.3 | 5.4 | 22.9 | 3.7 | 23.2 | 9.5 | 31.9 | 0.0 | 3.5 | LAB | SNP |
| 83 | 243 | Kilmarnock and Loudoun | Lillian Jones | 74,628 | 56.9 | 5.9 | 21.5 | 1.4 | 22.2 | 8.6 | 37.2 | 0.0 | 3.1 | LAB | SNP |
| 83 | 243 | Dundee Central | Chris Law | 74,221 | 52.3 | 3.0 | 18.7 | 4.4 | 19.6 | 4.4 | 44.3 | 0.9 | 4.7 | SNP | SNP |
| 85 | 241 | Falkirk | Euan Stainbank | 73,584 | 57.9 | 6.0 | 21.0 | 1.8 | 22.1 | 9.3 | 35.8 | 0.0 | 4.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 85 | 241 | Ayrshire Central | Alan Gemmell | 69,413 | 59.7 | 12.0 | 21.2 | 1.7 | 22.4 | 8.0 | 31.5 | 0.0 | 3.2 | LAB | SNP |
| 93 | 233 | Alloa and Grangemouth | Brian Leishman | 70,680 | 58.3 | 5.5 | 21.3 | 2.0 | 23.5 | 8.9 | 33.4 | 1.1 | 4.2 | LAB | SNP |
| 93 | 233 | Ayrshire North and Arran | Irene Campbell | 72,176 | 58.6 | 11.3 | 19.2 | 1.7 | 21.5 | 7.8 | 35.6 | 0.0 | 3.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 94 | 232 | Glenrothes and Mid Fife | Richard Baker | 70,655 | 51.1 | 4.0 | 21.0 | 3.2 | 23.4 | 5.6 | 40.4 | 0.0 | 2.6 | LAB | SNP |
| 94 | 232 | Stirling and Strathallan | Chris Kane | 76,284 | 65.3 | 16.2 | 16.3 | 3.6 | 18.8 | 8.1 | 35.0 | 0.0 | 2.1 | LAB | SNP |
| 97 | 229 | Livingston | Gregor Poynton | 78,043 | 57.5 | 5.5 | 19.7 | 3.2 | 22.5 | 8.7 | 37.3 | 0.0 | 3.1 | LAB | SNP |
| 111 | 215 | Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock | Elaine Stewart | 70,340 | 58.2 | 19.8 | 17.6 | 1.9 | 21.5 | 6.1 | 30.4 | 0.0 | 2.8 | LAB | SNP |
| 119 | 207 | Perth and Kinross-shire | Pete Wishart | 77,261 | 64.8 | 35.8 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 48.8 | 0.0 | 2.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 120 | 206 | Arbroath and Broughty Ferry | Stephen Patrick Gethins | 76,149 | 57.9 | 12.7 | 16.2 | 3.6 | 21.2 | 3.9 | 39.3 | 0.0 | 3.2 | SNP | SNP |
| 122 | 204 | Angus and Perthshire Glens | Dave Doogan | 76,668 | 61.8 | 35.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 7.0 | 2.2 | 49.9 | 0.0 | 2.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 126 | 200 | Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine | Andrew Campbell Bowie | 72,994 | 67.1 | 43.5 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 39.8 | 0.0 | 1.4 | CON | CON |
| 127 | 199 | Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk | John Lamont | 76,438 | 60.9 | 46.9 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 36.7 | 0.0 | 1.7 | CON | CON |
| 130 | 196 | Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey | Graham Leadbitter | 77,072 | 60.4 | 36.6 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 43.6 | 0.0 | 1.8 | SNP | SNP |
| 130 | 196 | Aberdeen South | Stephen Flynn | 77,328 | 59.9 | 21.5 | 12.1 | 4.5 | 18.2 | 4.9 | 36.4 | 0.0 | 2.4 | SNP | SNP |
| 134 | 192 | Gordon and Buchan | Harriet Cross | 69,605 | 63.0 | 42.0 | 1.1 | 4.7 | 7.6 | 1.8 | 41.8 | 0.0 | 0.9 | CON | CON |
| 138 | 188 | Fife North East | Wendy Chamberlain | 69,762 | 61.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 58.4 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 28.3 | 0.0 | 0.9 | LIB | LIB |
| 138 | 188 | Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale | David Mundell | 71,900 | 61.5 | 38.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 12.5 | 4.5 | 34.6 | 0.0 | 1.8 | CON | CON |
| 139 | 187 | Edinburgh West | Christine Anne Jardine | 76,490 | 68.6 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 55.2 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 25.5 | 0.0 | 1.8 | LIB | LIB |
| 139 | 187 | Dunbartonshire Mid | Susan Murray | 73,596 | 71.7 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 49.9 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 32.3 | 0.0 | 1.9 | LIB | LIB |
| 150 | 176 | Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber | Brendan O'Hara | 71,756 | 62.5 | 17.9 | 8.9 | 13.5 | 16.6 | 2.6 | 37.9 | 0.0 | 2.5 | SNP | SNP |
| 150 | 176 | Dumfries and Galloway | John Cooper | 78,541 | 58.3 | 29.4 | 10.1 | 2.7 | 17.8 | 4.4 | 33.6 | 0.0 | 1.9 | CON | SNP |
| 153 | 173 | Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross | Jamie Stone | 74,627 | 61.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 53.5 | 8.6 | 2.9 | 31.8 | 0.0 | 1.6 | LIB | LIB |
| 157 | 169 | Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire | Angus MacDonald | 77,927 | 61.7 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 43.6 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 39.8 | 0.0 | 1.3 | LIB | LIB |
| 178 | 148 | Orkney and Shetland | Alistair Carmichael | 34,236 | 60.4 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 52.2 | 14.5 | 7.2 | 19.6 | 0.0 | 0.7 | LIB | LIB |
| 192 | 134 | Aberdeen North | Kirsty Blackman | 75,925 | 55.4 | 9.0 | 12.1 | 3.8 | 23.9 | 5.7 | 42.0 | 0.0 | 3.5 | SNP | SNP |
| 194 | 132 | Aberdeenshire North and Moray East | Seamus Logan | 70,058 | 54.5 | 36.8 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 13.9 | 1.8 | 42.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 | SNP | SNP |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.