Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 25.1%6 20.5%04-42
LAB 18.6%1 19.0%00+01
LIB 9.5%4 6.5%04-40
Reform 0.5%0 1.0%00+00
Green 1.0%0 1.5%00+00
SNP 45.0%48 48.0%80+856
Other 0.3%0 3.5%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Banff and Buchan, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Ayrshire Central (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Paisley and Renfrewshire North (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
96465Edinburgh South Ian Murray66,18875.
108452Glasgow North East Anne McLaughlin61,07555.57.839.
131429Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss69,23057.96.833.
132428Glasgow South West Chris Stephens64,57557.18.534.
132428Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Steven Bonnar72,94366.19.435.
143417Glasgow North Patrick Grady57,13063.37.831.
148412Rutherglen and Hamilton West Margaret Ferrier80,91866.511.
157403Glasgow East David Linden67,38157.
168392Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows68,85664.511.932.
175385Glasgow South Stewart McDonald70,89166.99.729.
175385Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray64,01162.
177383Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan60,62265.811.629.
177383Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty66,51767.910.628.
177383Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Neale Hanvey72,85364.514.933.
180380Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan63,40262.711.
184376Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard69,42468.910.
190370Dundee West Chris Law64,43164.
199361Midlothian Owen Thompson70,54468.416.530.
201359Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald66,07969.
201359Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black64,38566.913.
207353Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,10668.617.
209351Glenrothes Peter Grant65,67263.312.323.
219341Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman76,65269.815.824.
220340Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock81,33673.013.722.
221339East Lothian Kenny MacAskill81,60071.721.329.
226334East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron81,22469.416.
229331Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands72,00769.017.423.
237323Livingston Hannah Bardell82,28566.317.
265295Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown74,51763.919.
269291Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,21167.77.37.337.14.60.738.05.0LIBSNP
271289Dunbartonshire East Amy Callaghan66,07580.310.49.729.10.82.541.55.9SNPSNP
273287Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day87,04466.419.518.
276284Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman62,48959.914.913.
285275Edinburgh West Christine Jardine72,50775.212.68.832.20.92.737.75.1LIBSNP
286274Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry73,50170.919.514.
296264Dundee East Stewart Hosie66,21068.419.
296264Fife North East Wendy Chamberlain60,90575.39.64.335.40.80.844.54.6LIBSNP
296264Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone46,93067.012.26.829.54.50.841.25.0LIBSNP
298262Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford54,23073.512.86.817.02.70.853.06.9SNPSNP
299261Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley77,65968.326.920.
310250Falkirk Johnny McNally84,47266.120.611.
319241Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson73,53465.525.714.
333227Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford69,74266.729.614.
335225Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry78,05970.
343217Renfrewshire East Kirsten Oswald72,23276.629.912.
359201Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Allan Dorans71,97064.733.313.
362198Stirling Alyn Smith68,47376.828.
382178Aberdeen South Stephen Flynn65,71969.430.
394166Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara66,52572.
408152Ochil and South Perthshire John Nicolson78,77673.433.
426134Perth and North Perthshire Pete Wishart72,60074.531.
460100Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack74,58069.
46892Angus Dave Doogan63,95267.535.
47090Gordon Richard Thomson79,62970.
49268Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell68,33071.940.
49664Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie72,64073.437.
51743Moray Douglas Ross71,03568.740.
54219Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont74,51871.343.
55011Banff and Buchan David Duguid66,65563.444.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.