Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 25.1%6 23.0%03-33
LAB 18.6%1 19.6%00+01
LIB 9.5%4 6.0%04-40
Reform 0.5%0 0.4%00+00
Green 1.0%0 2.1%00+00
SNP 45.0%48 47.7%70+755
Other 0.3%0 1.3%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Banff and Buchan, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Argyll and Bute (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Edinburgh West (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
70497Edinburgh South Ian Murray66,18875.114.448.
77489Glasgow North East Anne McLaughlin61,07555.
95471Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss69,23057.
97469Glasgow South West Chris Stephens64,57557.
98468Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Steven Bonnar72,94366.
103463Glasgow North Patrick Grady57,13063.
107459Rutherglen and Hamilton West Margaret Ferrier80,91866.513.
109457Glasgow East David Linden67,38157.
120446Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows68,85664.514.
121445Glasgow South Stewart McDonald70,89166.911.630.
127439Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray64,01162.115.532.
129437Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan60,62265.813.830.
129437Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty66,51767.912.529.
131435Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan63,40262.713.329.
131435Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Neale Hanvey72,85364.517.733.
135431Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard69,42468.912.
138428Dundee West Chris Law64,43164.510.925.
161405Midlothian Owen Thompson70,54468.419.330.
164402Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald66,07969.
164402Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black64,38566.915.426.
171395Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,10668.619.829.
172394Glenrothes Peter Grant65,67263.314.623.
182384Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock81,33673.016.323.
184382Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman76,65269.818.525.
184382East Lothian Kenny MacAskill81,60071.724.
190376East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron81,22469.418.823.
194372Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands72,00769.
198368Livingston Hannah Bardell82,28566.319.922.
210356Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,21167.78.78.835.
219347Dunbartonshire East Amy Callaghan66,07580.312.411.
221345Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown74,51763.921.819.
226340Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day87,04466.422.319.
227339Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman62,48959.917.714.
232334Edinburgh West Christine Jardine72,50775.
241325Fife North East Wendy Chamberlain60,90575.311.45.734.10.01.945.01.9LIBSNP
245321Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone46,93067.014.58.428.
247319Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry73,50170.922.
249317Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford54,23073.515.28.315.
249317Dundee East Stewart Hosie66,21068.421.814.
255311Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley77,65968.329.721.
272294Falkirk Johnny McNally84,47266.123.412.
284282Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson73,53465.528.414.
303263Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford69,74266.732.415.
303263Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry78,05970.
311255Renfrewshire East Kirsten Oswald72,23276.632.713.
320246Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Allan Dorans71,97064.736.
320246Stirling Alyn Smith68,47376.831.
324242Aberdeen South Stephen Flynn65,71969.433.
327239Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara66,52572.
338228Ochil and South Perthshire John Nicolson78,77673.436.
352214Perth and North Perthshire Pete Wishart72,60074.534.
374192Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack74,58069.041.710.
379187Gordon Richard Thomson79,62970.
380186Angus Dave Doogan63,95267.537.
402165Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell68,33071.943.
403163Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie72,64073.440.
428138Moray Douglas Ross71,03568.742.
464103Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont74,51871.346.
49968Banff and Buchan David Duguid66,65563.447.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.