Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 28.3%01-112
LAB 27.1%7 18.7%05-52
LIB 6.8%4 9.7%00+04
Brexit 0.0%0 0.3%00+00
Green 0.2%0 1.0%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 42.0%60+641
UKIP 0.2%0 0.0%00+00
Other 0.3%0 0.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Stirling (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Linlithgow and East Falkirk (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Brexit
%
Green
%
SNP
%
UKIP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
64512Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Lesley Laird72,72163.523.451.023.21.50.90.00.00.00.0LABLAB
72504Edinburgh South Ian Murray64,55374.119.745.66.00.00.828.00.00.00.0LABLAB
92483Glasgow North East Paul Sweeney59,93253.013.034.05.20.00.047.80.00.00.0LABSNP
111464Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Hugh Gaffney71,19863.316.333.35.10.00.844.50.00.00.0LABSNP
119456Glasgow South West Chris Stephens62,99156.215.431.65.50.50.047.10.00.00.0SNPSNP
124451Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss64,34655.914.029.16.00.00.850.20.00.00.0SNPSNP
139436Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty67,60265.217.228.35.40.00.848.30.00.00.0SNPSNP
142433Glasgow East David Linden66,24254.618.929.75.60.00.045.80.00.00.0SNPSNP
142433Glasgow North Patrick Grady53,86362.114.525.16.50.410.543.00.00.00.0SNPSNP
152423Rutherglen and Hamilton West Ged Killen80,09863.519.528.78.00.00.043.70.00.00.0LABSNP
153422Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan63,77360.918.027.06.80.00.048.20.00.00.0SNPSNP
157418Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows68,21561.520.228.95.90.00.045.00.00.00.0SNPSNP
161414Glasgow South Stewart McDonald69,12664.418.827.26.30.40.846.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
161414Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,30169.616.524.84.90.00.046.30.07.50.0SNPSNP
161414Dundee West Chris Law62,64461.715.924.16.60.50.052.90.00.00.0SNPSNP
166409Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan58,85366.421.428.65.70.00.044.20.00.00.0SNPSNP
172403Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard65,89666.018.525.37.30.00.848.00.00.00.0SNPSNP
172403Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald66,55465.918.325.06.50.00.050.20.00.00.0SNPSNP
173402Glenrothes Peter Grant66,37860.919.225.76.20.40.048.40.00.00.0SNPSNP
180395Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black61,34468.019.525.77.10.00.047.70.00.00.0SNPSNP
194381Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray64,14659.223.127.75.20.00.843.10.00.00.0SNPSNP
206369Midlothian Danielle Rowley68,32866.325.427.47.00.00.040.10.00.00.0LABSNP
225350Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman75,67267.424.624.59.00.00.841.00.00.00.0SNPSNP
229346Livingston Hannah Bardell81,20864.724.323.36.00.00.845.60.00.00.0SNPSNP
232343Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman62,13059.222.420.68.10.40.947.50.00.00.0SNPSNP
232343Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,16468.18.66.451.20.30.033.50.00.00.0LIBLIB
235340East Lothian Martin Whitfield79,09370.629.627.26.60.00.036.70.00.00.0LABSNP
237338East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron80,44267.325.322.46.40.00.945.00.00.00.0SNPSNP
243332Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands67,43669.127.522.96.40.00.043.20.00.00.0SNPSNP
245330Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock79,47371.226.921.87.60.43.939.40.00.00.0SNPSNP
246329Falkirk Johnny McNally82,24065.426.220.45.60.02.645.20.00.00.0SNPSNP
247328Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown73,32763.426.619.95.40.00.048.10.00.00.0SNPSNP
249326Dunbartonshire East Jo Swinson66,30078.114.67.742.80.00.634.30.00.00.0LIBLIB
249326Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day86,18665.128.821.86.50.40.841.70.00.00.0SNPSNP
256319Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley77,31365.332.023.06.00.00.039.00.00.00.0SNPSNP
260315Dundee East Stewart Hosie65,85465.227.317.17.00.00.048.60.00.00.0SNPSNP
276299Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson73,17464.831.218.15.50.00.844.40.00.00.0SNPSNP
283292Edinburgh West Christine Jardine71,50073.821.87.936.70.00.632.90.00.00.0LIBLIB
288287Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone46,86865.922.36.837.80.30.032.70.00.00.0LIBLIB
290285Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry71,17869.433.117.47.40.40.841.00.00.00.0SNPSNP
305270Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford68,99765.334.317.15.60.00.042.90.00.00.0SNPSNP
305270Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford53,63871.724.66.823.50.30.044.80.00.00.0SNPSNP
309266Fife North East Stephen Gethins58,68571.324.05.434.60.00.036.00.00.00.0SNPSNP
322253Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry76,84468.730.28.615.20.30.844.90.00.00.0SNPSNP
325251Renfrewshire East Paul Masterton70,06776.740.017.85.30.00.037.00.00.00.0CONCON
341234Stirling Stephen Kerr66,41574.337.012.76.70.00.942.60.00.00.0CONSNP
345231Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Bill Grant71,24164.940.114.95.10.00.039.90.00.00.0CONCON
354221Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara67,23071.533.17.020.30.00.039.70.00.00.0SNPSNP
400176Ochil and South Perthshire Luke Graham76,76770.641.411.16.50.00.041.00.00.00.0CONCON
403173Aberdeen South Ross Thomson64,96468.542.111.69.10.00.037.20.00.00.0CONCON
415161Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack74,20669.543.312.06.00.00.038.70.00.00.0CONCON
446130Gordon Colin Clark78,53168.440.66.513.60.00.039.30.00.00.0CONCON
48095Perth and North Perthshire Pete Wishart71,74371.842.05.76.70.20.045.30.00.00.0SNPSNP
50076Angus Kirstene Hair63,84063.045.07.25.40.00.042.40.00.00.0CONCON
53244Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell67,67272.449.39.16.70.00.034.90.00.00.0CONCON
54234Moray Douglas Ross70,64967.447.46.14.20.00.042.30.00.00.0CONCON
54333Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie72,47771.247.76.110.50.00.035.70.00.00.0CONCON
55323Banff and Buchan David Duguid67,60161.647.85.25.10.00.041.90.00.00.0CONCON
5733Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont73,19171.553.74.86.20.00.035.30.00.00.0CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.