Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 27.4%01-112
LAB 27.1%7 23.8%06-61
LIB 6.8%4 7.0%00+04
UKIP 0.2%0 1.4%00+00
Green 0.2%0 1.4%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 38.9%70+742
Minor 0.3%0 0.2%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Ayrshire Central (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Livingston (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
128443Edinburgh South Ian Murray64,55374.118.451.
151419Glasgow North East Paul Sweeney59,93253.
168402Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Hugh Gaffney71,19863.315.
175395Glasgow South West Chris Stephens62,99156.214.636.
178392Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss64,34655.913.
191379Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty67,60265.
193377Glasgow East David Linden66,24254.617.634.
193377Glasgow North Patrick Grady53,86362.113.830.
200370Rutherglen and Hamilton West Ged Killen80,09863.518.333.
203367Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan63,77360.916.932.
203367Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows68,21561.519.
204366Glasgow South Stewart McDonald69,12664.417.932.
206364Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,30169.615.430.
209361Dundee West Chris Law62,64461.715.
211359Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan58,85366.420.
211359Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard65,89666.017.431.
213357Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald66,55465.917.
215355Glenrothes Peter Grant66,37860.918.
216354Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black61,34468.
222348Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray64,14659.221.933.
223347Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Lesley Laird72,72163.522.
232338Midlothian Danielle Rowley68,32866.324.
239331Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman75,67267.423.430.
241329Livingston Hannah Bardell81,20864.723.
246324Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman62,13059.221.426.
252318East Lothian Martin Whitfield79,09370.628.332.
253317East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron80,44267.324.
269301Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands67,43669.126.328.
272298Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock79,47371.225.927.
273297Falkirk Johnny McNally82,24065.424.926.
273297Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,16468.18.19.348.71.90.730.20.01.0LIBLIB
284286Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown73,32763.425.425.
286284Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day86,18665.127.827.
292278Dunbartonshire East Jo Swinson66,30078.113.711.940.80.90.931.80.00.0LIBLIB
297273Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley77,31365.330.828.
302268Dundee East Stewart Hosie65,85465.
310260Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson73,17464.830.
320250Edinburgh West Christine Jardine71,50073.820.612.
322248Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry71,17869.432.
327243Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford68,99765.333.
328242Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone46,86865.921.310.
339231Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford53,63871.723.610.
349221Fife North East Stephen Gethins58,68571.322.87.833.00.80.834.20.00.5SNPSNP
355216Renfrewshire East Paul Masterton70,06776.738.723.
355215Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry76,84468.729.
365205Stirling Stephen Kerr66,41574.335.818.
374197Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Bill Grant71,24164.938.920.
396174Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara67,23071.532.010.318.40.90.937.60.00.0SNPSNP
411160Ochil and South Perthshire Luke Graham76,76770.640.
414157Aberdeen South Ross Thomson64,96468.540.916.
422149Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack74,20669.542.
468103Gordon Colin Clark78,53168.439.49.611.80.90.937.40.00.0CONCON
49971Perth and North Perthshire Pete Wishart71,74371.841.
50170Angus Kirstene Hair63,84063.043.910.
51655Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell67,67272.448.
53635Moray Douglas Ross70,64967.446.
53734Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie72,47771.
54625Banff and Buchan David Duguid67,60161.646.
5674Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont73,19171.552.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.