Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 25.1%6 18.5%04-42
LAB 18.6%1 24.0%10+12
LIB 9.5%4 8.0%02-22
Reform 0.5%0 0.0%00+00
Green 1.0%0 0.0%00+00
SNP 45.0%48 46.5%61+553
Other 0.3%0 3.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Banff and Buchan, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Lanark and Hamilton East (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Dunfermline and West Fife (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
SNP
%
OTH
%
2019
Win
Pred
Win
51504Edinburgh South Ian Murray66,18875.19.854.06.00.00.027.13.1LABLAB
75479Glasgow North East Anne McLaughlin61,07555.53.943.52.50.00.048.02.1SNPSNP
90464Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss69,23057.93.139.23.80.00.050.93.1SNPSNP
93461Glasgow South West Chris Stephens64,57557.14.840.03.00.00.049.42.7SNPSNP
97457Glasgow North Patrick Grady57,13063.33.938.55.10.00.048.83.6SNPSNP
99455Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Steven Bonnar72,94366.16.140.52.50.00.048.42.6SNPSNP
116438Rutherglen and Hamilton West Margaret Ferrier80,91866.58.438.94.00.00.045.43.4SNPSNP
129425Glasgow East David Linden67,38157.18.237.53.30.00.048.92.1SNPSNP
131423Glasgow South Stewart McDonald70,89166.96.535.74.60.00.049.93.3SNPSNP
149405Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows68,85664.59.536.52.90.00.047.63.5SNPSNP
154401Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Neale Hanvey72,85364.513.540.44.80.00.037.43.9SNPLAB
155399Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard69,42468.97.133.75.30.00.050.43.5SNPSNP
158396Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty66,51767.97.633.83.20.00.051.14.3SNPSNP
158396Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray64,01162.111.037.22.80.00.046.52.6SNPSNP
167387Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan60,62265.89.134.15.00.00.049.62.3SNPSNP
171383Dundee West Chris Law64,43164.55.830.54.60.00.055.43.7SNPSNP
172382Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan63,40262.78.533.15.30.00.050.82.3SNPSNP
200354Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald66,07969.19.529.05.00.00.054.12.3SNPSNP
202352Midlothian Owen Thompson70,54468.415.134.35.50.00.042.82.3SNPSNP
204350Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black64,38566.911.030.05.30.00.051.52.3SNPSNP
204350Glenrothes Peter Grant65,67263.310.029.14.90.00.052.83.2SNPSNP
218336Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock81,33673.011.929.58.90.00.045.74.0SNPSNP
221333Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,10668.615.632.63.40.00.046.32.2SNPSNP
225329Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman76,65269.814.330.46.20.00.046.03.1SNPSNP
232322East Lothian Kenny MacAskill81,60071.719.934.15.40.00.037.43.2SNPSNP
237317East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron81,22469.414.628.45.20.00.047.93.9SNPSNP
252302Livingston Hannah Bardell82,28566.315.727.84.90.00.048.53.0SNPSNP
254300Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands72,00769.016.027.75.70.00.048.32.3SNPSNP
263291Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,21167.73.313.842.60.00.035.94.3LIBLIB
288266Dunbartonshire East Amy Callaghan66,07580.37.415.134.60.00.038.74.2SNPSNP
291263Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman62,48959.913.520.75.90.00.056.03.8SNPSNP
291263Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day87,04466.418.125.35.90.00.046.14.6SNPSNP
302252Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown74,51763.917.623.34.00.00.052.03.1SNPSNP
309245Edinburgh West Christine Jardine72,50775.210.414.237.70.00.034.63.1LIBLIB
313241Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone46,93067.09.813.235.00.00.038.53.5LIBSNP
313241Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry73,50170.918.021.37.40.00.049.53.7SNPSNP
319235Fife North East Wendy Chamberlain60,90575.36.48.740.80.00.041.62.5LIBSNP
319235Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford54,23073.510.712.122.40.00.049.94.8SNPSNP
324230Dundee East Stewart Hosie66,21068.417.618.16.10.00.055.13.1SNPSNP
329225Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley77,65968.325.524.74.40.00.043.12.2SNPSNP
332222Falkirk Johnny McNally84,47266.119.217.75.50.00.054.33.3SNPSNP
360194Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson73,53465.524.219.53.40.00.050.12.8SNPSNP
388166Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry78,05970.222.215.48.40.00.050.04.0SNPSNP
421133Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford69,74266.728.218.53.80.00.047.42.2SNPSNP
438116Renfrewshire East Kirsten Oswald72,23276.628.517.15.90.00.046.22.4SNPSNP
46787Stirling Alyn Smith68,47376.826.913.64.20.00.052.62.7SNPSNP
47777Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Allan Dorans71,97064.731.917.73.60.00.044.72.2SNPSNP
50351Aberdeen South Stephen Flynn65,71969.429.313.48.80.00.046.02.5SNPSNP
51836Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara66,52572.228.611.812.00.00.045.12.5SNPSNP
52925Ochil and South Perthshire John Nicolson78,77673.432.113.04.30.00.047.72.9SNPSNP
53321Perth and North Perthshire Pete Wishart72,60074.530.09.95.40.00.052.02.7SNPSNP
54410Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack74,58069.037.513.74.70.00.041.82.3CONSNP
54410Gordon Richard Thomson79,62970.234.610.58.30.00.044.12.5SNPSNP
5459Angus Dave Doogan63,95267.533.79.24.50.00.050.42.2SNPSNP
5495Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell68,33071.939.413.15.60.00.039.62.3CONSNP
5495Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie72,64073.436.09.69.50.00.042.42.5CONSNP
5522Moray Douglas Ross71,03568.738.79.33.60.00.045.43.0CONSNP
5532Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont74,51871.341.89.56.30.00.040.02.4CONCON
5541Banff and Buchan David Duguid66,65563.443.58.54.20.00.041.62.2CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.