Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 25.1%6 20.5%04-42
LAB 18.6%1 19.0%00+01
LIB 9.5%4 6.5%04-40
Reform 0.5%0 1.0%00+00
Green 1.0%0 1.5%00+00
SNP 45.0%48 48.0%80+856
Other 0.3%0 3.5%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Banff and Buchan, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Ayrshire Central (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Paisley and Renfrewshire North (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
SNP
%
OTH
%
2019
Win
Pred
Win
96465Edinburgh South Ian Murray66,18875.112.148.14.70.53.228.23.0LABLAB
108452Glasgow North East Anne McLaughlin61,07555.57.839.62.00.30.348.41.7SNPSNP
131429Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss69,23057.96.833.33.00.33.950.91.8SNPSNP
132428Glasgow South West Chris Stephens64,57557.18.534.82.42.50.349.61.9SNPSNP
132428Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Steven Bonnar72,94366.19.435.62.00.32.048.81.9SNPSNP
143417Glasgow North Patrick Grady57,13063.37.831.74.11.34.049.02.2SNPSNP
148412Rutherglen and Hamilton West Margaret Ferrier80,91866.511.134.83.20.40.446.53.6SNPSNP
157403Glasgow East David Linden67,38157.111.033.52.60.40.449.82.3SNPSNP
168392Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows68,85664.511.932.62.30.40.448.63.8SNPSNP
175385Glasgow South Stewart McDonald70,89166.99.729.43.61.53.050.32.4SNPSNP
175385Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray64,01162.113.032.32.20.42.147.42.5SNPSNP
177383Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan60,62265.811.629.94.00.50.450.92.7SNPSNP
177383Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty66,51767.910.628.72.60.42.351.73.8SNPSNP
177383Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Neale Hanvey72,85364.514.933.03.82.94.038.23.2SNPSNP
180380Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan63,40262.711.228.84.20.50.452.12.8SNPSNP
184376Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard69,42468.910.127.04.20.44.750.82.6SNPSNP
190370Dundee West Chris Law64,43164.59.224.63.73.40.455.92.9SNPSNP
199361Midlothian Owen Thompson70,54468.416.530.14.30.60.544.63.3SNPSNP
201359Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald66,07969.112.024.84.00.50.555.52.8SNPSNP
201359Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black64,38566.913.025.84.20.50.553.03.0SNPSNP
207353Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,10668.617.028.62.70.50.547.82.9SNPSNP
209351Glenrothes Peter Grant65,67263.312.323.23.93.60.553.72.8SNPSNP
219341Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman76,65269.815.824.84.90.62.947.63.5SNPSNP
220340Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock81,33673.013.722.66.91.63.947.24.1SNPSNP
221339East Lothian Kenny MacAskill81,60071.721.329.94.30.60.539.24.1SNPSNP
226334East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron81,22469.416.023.14.10.62.649.34.2SNPSNP
229331Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands72,00769.017.423.54.50.60.550.13.4SNPSNP
237323Livingston Hannah Bardell82,28566.317.122.23.90.53.149.93.2SNPSNP
265295Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown74,51763.919.119.33.20.50.553.63.9SNPSNP
269291Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,21167.77.37.337.14.60.738.05.0LIBSNP
271289Dunbartonshire East Amy Callaghan66,07580.310.49.729.10.82.541.55.9SNPSNP
273287Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day87,04466.419.518.64.72.82.647.44.4SNPSNP
276284Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman62,48959.914.913.64.73.32.957.13.4SNPSNP
285275Edinburgh West Christine Jardine72,50775.212.68.832.20.92.737.75.1LIBSNP
286274Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry73,50170.919.514.85.91.83.051.13.9SNPSNP
296264Dundee East Stewart Hosie66,21068.419.113.84.90.60.657.04.1SNPSNP
296264Fife North East Wendy Chamberlain60,90575.39.64.335.40.80.844.54.6LIBSNP
296264Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone46,93067.012.26.829.54.50.841.25.0LIBSNP
298262Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford54,23073.512.86.817.02.70.853.06.9SNPSNP
299261Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley77,65968.326.920.63.50.50.544.83.1SNPSNP
310250Falkirk Johnny McNally84,47266.120.611.64.40.63.955.63.3SNPSNP
319241Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson73,53465.525.714.32.70.52.851.22.9SNPSNP
333227Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford69,74266.729.614.53.00.50.548.93.0SNPSNP
335225Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry78,05970.223.68.06.62.63.851.53.9SNPSNP
343217Renfrewshire East Kirsten Oswald72,23276.629.912.84.60.60.648.13.4SNPSNP
359201Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Allan Dorans71,97064.733.313.72.90.50.546.22.9SNPSNP
362198Stirling Alyn Smith68,47376.828.38.53.40.52.353.93.1SNPSNP
382178Aberdeen South Stephen Flynn65,71969.430.78.96.80.70.648.34.0SNPSNP
394166Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara66,52572.230.07.38.80.80.747.94.5SNPSNP
408152Ochil and South Perthshire John Nicolson78,77673.433.59.03.40.50.549.33.7SNPSNP
426134Perth and North Perthshire Pete Wishart72,60074.531.45.04.31.80.553.63.3SNPSNP
460100Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack74,58069.038.99.63.80.50.543.53.2CONSNP
46892Angus Dave Doogan63,95267.535.25.23.50.50.552.03.1SNPSNP
47090Gordon Richard Thomson79,62970.236.16.06.50.70.646.33.9SNPSNP
49268Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell68,33071.940.88.94.40.60.541.43.3CONSNP
49664Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie72,64073.437.55.17.20.70.744.84.1CONSNP
51743Moray Douglas Ross71,03568.740.15.42.90.50.546.93.8CONSNP
54219Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont74,51871.343.35.25.00.60.642.03.5CONCON
55011Banff and Buchan David Duguid66,65563.444.94.53.30.50.543.23.0CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.