Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 25.1%6 17.0%10+17
LAB 18.6%1 35.0%270+2728
LIB 9.5%4 7.5%10+15
Reform 0.5%0 2.0%00+00
Green 1.0%0 1.0%00+00
SNP 45.0%48 33.0%029-2919
Other 0.3%0 4.5%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Banff and Buchan, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross (prediction: LIB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Dunfermline and West Fife (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
57523Edinburgh South Ian Murray66,18875.19.663.
72508Glasgow North East Anne McLaughlin61,07555.53.553.
83497Rutherglen and Hamilton West Margaret Ferrier80,91866.56.955.
93487Glasgow South West Chris Stephens64,57557.14.550.
105475Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss69,23057.93.847.
106474Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Steven Bonnar72,94366.15.949.
112468Glasgow North Patrick Grady57,13063.34.447.
142438Glasgow East David Linden67,38157.17.447.
152428Glasgow South Stewart McDonald70,89166.96.645.
159421Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows68,85664.58.646.
166414Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Neale Hanvey72,85364.513.
178402Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan60,62265.88.344.
179401Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty66,51767.97.443.
181399Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan63,40262.77.843.
181398Dundee West Chris Law64,43164.55.441.
185395Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard69,42468.97.542.
209371Midlothian Owen Thompson70,54468.413.745.
212368Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray64,01162.112.543.
214365Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald66,07969.18.739.
215365Glenrothes Peter Grant65,67263.39.339.
217363Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black64,38566.910.
229351Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,10668.614.
236344Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock81,33673.011.739.
239341East Lothian Kenny MacAskill81,60071.718.
240340Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman76,65269.813.640.
261319East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron81,22469.413.838.
269311Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands72,00769.014.538.
278302Livingston Hannah Bardell82,28566.314.937.
295284Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,21167.73.324.641.81.90.922.05.4LIBLIB
311269Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day87,04466.417.
316263Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman62,48959.913.
317262Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown74,51763.916.
317262Dunbartonshire East Amy Callaghan66,07580.
329250Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone46,93067.09.224.434.21.90.924.64.8LIBLIB
331248Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry73,50170.917.
335244Edinburgh West Christine Jardine72,50775.210.024.536.
341238Fife North East Wendy Chamberlain60,90575.35.819.
341238Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford54,23073.59.923.
341238Dundee East Stewart Hosie66,21068.416.
345235Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley77,65968.323.
362217Falkirk Johnny McNally84,47266.
376203Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson73,53465.522.630.
385194Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry78,05970.
395184Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford69,74266.725.629.
410169Renfrewshire East Kirsten Oswald72,23276.626.
435144Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Allan Dorans71,97064.729.
444135Stirling Alyn Smith68,47376.824.924.
454125Aberdeen South Stephen Flynn65,71969.426.725.
460119Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara66,52572.226.123.711.21.90.931.84.5SNPSNP
477102Ochil and South Perthshire John Nicolson78,77673.429.
49584Perth and North Perthshire Pete Wishart72,60074.527.421.
51961Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack74,58069.
52456Gordon Richard Thomson79,62970.231.622.
53049Angus Dave Doogan63,95267.530.721.
53446Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell68,33071.935.925.
54535Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie72,64073.432.922.
56020Moray Douglas Ross71,03568.735.
57010Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont74,51871.338.
5764Banff and Buchan David Duguid66,65563.439.621.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.