Scotland: Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 12.7%5 10.8%01-14
LAB 35.3%37 17.1%034-343
LIB 9.7%6 8.3%00+06
Reform 7.0%0 21.0%00+00
Green 3.8%0 8.8%00+00
SNP 30.0%9 31.3%350+3544
Other 1.5%0 2.7%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Edinburgh South' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Aberdeen North', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Aberdeen North (prediction: SNP), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Edinburgh South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
Reform
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
SNP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
70315Edinburgh South Ian Murray70,83966.16.329.24.423.115.418.13.50.0LABLAB
75310Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Torcuil Crichton21,23563.77.826.62.721.214.923.73.00.0LABLAB
76308Coatbridge and Bellshill Frank McNally72,66753.33.526.91.422.18.434.82.90.0LABSNP
80304Glasgow West Patricia Ferguson69,02857.83.624.82.520.513.931.82.90.0LABSNP
81303Rutherglen Michael Shanks72,67458.55.027.43.123.26.631.43.20.0LABSNP
83301Dunbartonshire West Douglas McAllister69,07457.33.426.21.722.38.634.92.90.0LABSNP
86298Airdrie and Shotts Kenneth Stevenson70,19952.24.428.01.724.46.232.43.10.0LABSNP
86298Glasgow South Gordon McKee70,21960.43.721.52.417.918.633.32.70.0LABSNP
87297Glasgow North East Maureen Burke72,61047.03.724.21.521.013.133.72.80.0LABSNP
88296Glasgow North Martin Rhodes67,57951.43.721.82.518.717.333.32.70.0LABSNP
89295Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West Martin McCluskey70,12457.55.524.92.422.58.932.63.10.0LABSNP
92292Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke Pamela Nash71,77754.44.626.41.724.07.932.33.10.0LABSNP
92292Paisley and Renfrewshire South Johanna Baxter71,57457.74.225.32.423.09.132.93.00.0LABSNP
92292Glasgow South West Zubir Ahmed68,87151.83.622.72.120.412.735.72.80.0LABSNP
93291East Kilbride and Strathaven Joani Reid76,41561.15.426.01.824.09.030.53.20.0LABSNP
93291Edinburgh North and Leith Tracy Gilbert78,41163.14.921.75.719.716.228.73.00.0LABSNP
93291Edinburgh East and Musselburgh Chris Murray76,18859.84.321.13.219.314.934.32.80.0LABSNP
94290Glasgow East John Grady68,98851.44.022.91.921.212.734.42.80.0LABSNP
94290Renfrewshire East Blair McDougall73,38068.413.822.81.921.28.928.43.10.0LABSNP
95290Lothian East Douglas Alexander75,45663.78.126.34.124.910.422.83.40.0LABLAB
97287Midlothian Kirsty McNeill73,91659.85.126.14.324.94.831.53.30.0LABSNP
97287Paisley and Renfrewshire North Alison Suzanne Watt Taylor71,10358.44.525.12.524.07.833.13.10.0LABSNP
98286Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch Katrina Murray70,35058.23.623.82.422.78.336.32.90.0LABSNP
99285Hamilton and Clyde Valley Imogen Walker75,48055.87.227.02.726.24.728.83.40.0LABSNP
100284Dunfermline and Dollar Graeme Downie72,82461.25.424.15.223.610.028.63.20.0LABSNP
108276Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy Melanie Ward71,84556.86.024.13.024.210.129.53.10.0LABSNP
111273Bathgate and Linlithgow Kirsteen Sullivan72,18558.35.425.03.825.48.628.63.20.0LABSNP
112272Edinburgh South West Scott Arthur73,78461.98.720.94.821.412.528.63.20.0LABSNP
112272Dundee Central Chris Law74,22152.34.619.14.719.87.541.62.70.0SNPSNP
112272Kilmarnock and Loudoun Lillian Jones74,62856.95.623.61.624.27.834.13.00.0LABSNP
115269Falkirk Euan Stainbank73,58457.96.122.32.123.710.032.83.00.0LABSNP
117267Glenrothes and Mid Fife Richard Baker70,65551.14.023.23.325.14.237.32.90.0LABSNP
117267Ayrshire Central Alan Gemmell69,41359.711.422.81.924.87.628.53.10.0LABSNP
117267Alloa and Grangemouth Brian Leishman70,68058.36.122.82.324.910.430.53.00.0LABSNP
129255Livingston Gregor Poynton78,04357.55.420.93.424.38.834.32.90.0LABSNP
130254Ayrshire North and Arran Irene Campbell72,17658.610.620.21.923.68.132.73.00.0LABSNP
136248Stirling and Strathallan Chris Kane76,28465.315.216.23.721.08.832.22.80.0LABSNP
141243Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock Elaine Stewart70,34058.219.117.92.123.47.127.62.80.0LABSNP
154230Fife North East Wendy Chamberlain69,76261.21.20.156.87.47.225.71.70.0LIBLIB
154230Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont76,43860.946.00.72.08.17.733.42.20.0CONCON
157227Angus and Perthshire Glens Dave Doogan76,66861.834.61.01.98.64.747.02.10.0SNPSNP
157227Dunbartonshire Mid Susan Murray73,59671.71.41.349.18.97.629.52.20.0LIBLIB
157227Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Campbell Bowie72,99467.142.60.63.58.36.236.62.20.0CONCON
157227Perth and Kinross-shire Pete Wishart77,26164.833.32.52.610.14.744.62.30.0SNPSNP
158226Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone74,62761.71.30.052.07.97.929.31.40.0LIBLIB
166218Gordon and Buchan Harriet Cross69,60563.041.30.24.78.83.739.22.10.0CONCON
168216Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire Angus MacDonald77,92761.71.40.442.19.18.037.01.90.0LIBLIB
171213Edinburgh West Christine Anne Jardine76,49068.63.22.550.811.68.321.52.00.0LIBLIB
173211Aberdeen South Stephen Flynn77,32859.920.910.14.619.68.334.02.50.0SNPSNP
187197Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Graham Leadbitter77,07260.431.43.53.913.88.037.02.30.0SNPSNP
192192Dumfries and Galloway John Cooper78,54158.325.810.73.421.97.028.62.50.0CONSNP
196188Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell71,90061.530.28.94.620.97.625.42.50.0CONCON
202182Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,23660.42.50.252.212.613.118.01.30.0LIBLIB
202182Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber Brendan O'Hara71,75662.517.56.413.618.95.236.02.40.0SNPSNP
247137Arbroath and Broughty Ferry Stephen Patrick Gethins76,14957.98.510.83.027.15.542.32.80.0SNPSNP
31173Aberdeenshire North and Moray East Seamus Logan70,05854.528.90.45.223.73.636.22.00.0SNPSNP
31371Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman75,92555.44.95.82.729.59.145.32.70.0SNPSNP

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.