Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 25.1%6 21.0%06-60
LAB 18.6%1 19.0%00+01
LIB 9.5%4 6.0%04-40
Brexit 0.5%0 0.0%00+00
Green 1.0%0 0.0%00+00
SNP 45.0%48 53.0%100+1058
Other 0.3%0 1.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Banff and Buchan, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Stirling (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Aberdeen North (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Brexit
%
Green
%
SNP
%
OTH
%
2019
Win
Pred
Win
73491Edinburgh South Ian Murray66,18875.112.648.24.30.00.034.10.8LABLAB
84479Glasgow North East Anne McLaughlin61,07555.58.139.61.80.00.050.30.3SNPSNP
103460Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss69,23057.97.133.52.70.00.056.10.6SNPSNP
105458Glasgow South West Chris Stephens64,57557.18.834.92.20.00.053.60.5SNPSNP
105458Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Steven Bonnar72,94366.19.835.71.80.00.052.30.5SNPSNP
111452Glasgow North Patrick Grady57,13063.38.131.93.70.00.055.50.8SNPSNP
115448Rutherglen and Hamilton West Margaret Ferrier80,91866.511.534.82.90.00.049.21.6SNPSNP
118445Glasgow East David Linden67,38157.111.433.52.30.00.052.30.4SNPSNP
129434Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows68,85664.512.432.62.10.00.051.11.8SNPSNP
129434Glasgow South Stewart McDonald70,89166.910.129.63.30.00.056.30.8SNPSNP
134429Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray64,01162.113.632.42.00.00.051.50.6SNPSNP
140423Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty66,51767.911.028.82.30.00.055.82.1SNPSNP
140423Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan60,62265.812.129.83.60.00.054.00.5SNPSNP
140423Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Neale Hanvey72,85364.515.533.33.40.00.046.81.1SNPSNP
145418Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan63,40262.711.728.83.80.00.055.20.5SNPSNP
150413Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard69,42468.910.527.23.80.00.057.60.9SNPSNP
163400Dundee West Chris Law64,43164.59.524.73.30.00.061.21.3SNPSNP
172391Midlothian Owen Thompson70,54468.417.130.13.90.00.048.30.6SNPSNP
175388Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald66,07969.112.424.83.60.00.058.60.5SNPSNP
175388Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black64,38566.913.525.83.80.00.056.40.6SNPSNP
180383Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,10668.617.628.62.40.00.050.80.5SNPSNP
183380Glenrothes Peter Grant65,67263.312.823.33.50.00.059.60.8SNPSNP
189374Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman76,65269.816.324.94.40.00.053.50.9SNPSNP
190373Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock81,33673.014.322.86.20.00.055.41.3SNPSNP
192371East Lothian Kenny MacAskill81,60071.721.929.93.90.00.042.91.5SNPSNP
197366East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron81,22469.416.623.23.70.00.054.71.8SNPSNP
202361Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands72,00769.018.023.44.10.00.053.90.6SNPSNP
204359Livingston Hannah Bardell82,28566.317.722.33.50.00.055.70.8SNPSNP
224339Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,21167.77.67.435.90.00.047.11.9LIBSNP
224339Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown74,51763.919.619.32.80.00.056.81.4SNPSNP
230333Dunbartonshire East Amy Callaghan66,07580.310.89.827.90.00.049.22.3SNPSNP
230333Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day87,04466.420.118.84.20.00.054.92.0SNPSNP
232331Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman62,48959.915.513.84.20.00.065.41.1SNPSNP
249314Edinburgh West Christine Jardine72,50775.213.18.931.00.00.045.81.2LIBSNP
250313Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry73,50170.920.015.05.30.00.058.51.2SNPSNP
253310Fife North East Wendy Chamberlain60,90575.310.04.334.20.00.050.61.0LIBSNP
254309Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone46,93067.012.77.028.30.00.050.81.3LIBSNP
257306Dundee East Stewart Hosie66,21068.419.613.74.40.00.060.91.3SNPSNP
259304Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford54,23073.513.36.915.70.00.061.13.0SNPSNP
266297Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley77,65968.327.520.63.20.00.048.10.6SNPSNP
277286Falkirk Johnny McNally84,47266.121.211.74.00.00.062.20.9SNPSNP
290273Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson73,53465.526.214.42.40.00.056.30.7SNPSNP
308255Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford69,74266.730.214.52.70.00.052.10.6SNPSNP
308255Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry78,05970.224.28.25.90.00.060.51.2SNPSNP
315248Renfrewshire East Kirsten Oswald72,23276.630.512.84.20.00.051.90.6SNPSNP
324239Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Allan Dorans71,97064.733.913.72.60.00.049.30.5SNPSNP
326237Stirling Alyn Smith68,47376.828.98.63.00.00.058.80.7SNPSNP
336227Aberdeen South Stephen Flynn65,71969.431.38.96.10.00.052.90.8SNPSNP
339224Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara66,52572.230.67.37.90.00.053.30.9SNPSNP
347216Ochil and South Perthshire John Nicolson78,77673.434.18.93.10.00.052.71.2SNPSNP
367196Perth and North Perthshire Pete Wishart72,60074.532.05.03.90.00.058.40.7SNPSNP
398165Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack74,58069.039.59.63.40.00.047.00.6CONSNP
403160Angus Dave Doogan63,95267.535.75.13.20.00.055.40.6SNPSNP
403160Gordon Richard Thomson79,62970.236.65.95.90.00.050.80.8SNPSNP
421142Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell68,33071.941.48.94.00.00.045.10.6CONSNP
425138Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie72,64073.438.05.06.50.00.049.60.8CONSNP
460103Moray Douglas Ross71,03568.740.75.32.60.00.050.11.4CONSNP
50063Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont74,51871.343.85.14.50.00.045.90.7CONSNP
52142Banff and Buchan David Duguid66,65563.445.54.43.00.00.046.50.6CONSNP

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.