Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 25.1%6 17.0%10+17
LAB 18.6%1 35.0%270+2728
LIB 9.5%4 7.5%10+15
Reform 0.5%0 2.0%00+00
Green 1.0%0 1.0%00+00
SNP 45.0%48 33.0%029-2919
Other 0.3%0 4.5%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Banff and Buchan, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross (prediction: LIB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Dunfermline and West Fife (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
SNP
%
OTH
%
2019
Win
Pred
Win
57523Edinburgh South Ian Murray66,18875.19.663.85.42.21.313.44.2LABLAB
72508Glasgow North East Anne McLaughlin61,07555.53.553.22.41.70.734.93.6SNPLAB
83497Rutherglen and Hamilton West Margaret Ferrier80,91866.56.955.33.42.30.626.84.8SNPLAB
93487Glasgow South West Chris Stephens64,57557.14.550.12.81.80.835.94.1SNPLAB
105475Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss69,23057.93.847.83.52.31.437.23.9SNPLAB
106474Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Steven Bonnar72,94366.15.949.82.42.01.035.03.8SNPLAB
112468Glasgow North Patrick Grady57,13063.34.447.74.72.41.534.94.3SNPLAB
142438Glasgow East David Linden67,38157.17.447.63.11.80.735.73.8SNPLAB
152428Glasgow South Stewart McDonald70,89166.96.645.34.22.21.336.14.3SNPLAB
159421Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows68,85664.58.646.62.71.80.734.45.2SNPLAB
166414Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Neale Hanvey72,85364.513.250.44.42.41.623.24.7SNPLAB
178402Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan60,62265.88.344.44.51.80.736.43.9SNPLAB
179401Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty66,51767.97.443.33.12.11.137.65.5SNPLAB
181399Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan63,40262.77.843.44.81.80.737.53.9SNPLAB
181398Dundee West Chris Law64,43164.55.441.04.21.90.841.85.0SNPSNP
185395Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard69,42468.97.542.84.92.51.636.44.3SNPLAB
209371Midlothian Owen Thompson70,54468.413.745.15.01.80.829.54.1SNPLAB
212368Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray64,01162.112.543.81.91.70.536.72.9SNPLAB
214365Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald66,07969.18.739.44.61.80.740.93.9SNPSNP
215365Glenrothes Peter Grant65,67263.39.339.94.51.90.939.14.5SNPLAB
217363Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black64,38566.910.040.54.81.80.738.24.0SNPLAB
229351Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,10668.614.243.13.21.80.733.13.9SNPLAB
236344Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock81,33673.011.739.68.22.41.531.74.9SNPLAB
239341East Lothian Kenny MacAskill81,60071.718.145.24.91.80.824.25.0SNPLAB
240340Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman76,65269.813.640.65.62.21.332.44.3SNPLAB
261319East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron81,22469.413.838.64.82.11.234.45.2SNPLAB
269311Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands72,00769.014.538.65.21.80.835.04.1SNPLAB
278302Livingston Hannah Bardell82,28566.314.937.94.52.21.334.94.2SNPLAB
295284Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,21167.73.324.641.81.90.922.05.4LIBLIB
311269Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day87,04466.417.136.15.42.21.332.25.7SNPLAB
316263Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman62,48959.913.031.25.42.31.442.04.7SNPSNP
317262Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown74,51763.916.034.13.71.80.738.84.8SNPSNP
317262Dunbartonshire East Amy Callaghan66,07580.37.225.233.82.11.125.15.4SNPLIB
329250Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone46,93067.09.224.434.21.90.924.64.8LIBLIB
331248Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry73,50170.917.132.16.72.31.435.64.9SNPSNP
335244Edinburgh West Christine Jardine72,50775.210.024.536.92.11.221.04.3LIBLIB
341238Fife North East Wendy Chamberlain60,90575.35.819.240.11.80.828.24.1LIBLIB
341238Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford54,23073.59.923.221.61.90.936.36.3SNPSNP
341238Dundee East Stewart Hosie66,21068.416.129.15.51.80.841.84.8SNPSNP
345235Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley77,65968.323.236.04.11.80.829.94.2SNPLAB
362217Falkirk Johnny McNally84,47266.118.227.95.12.31.540.54.4SNPSNP
376203Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson73,53465.522.630.03.22.21.236.54.2SNPSNP
385194Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry78,05970.221.126.47.72.41.635.95.0SNPSNP
395184Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford69,74266.725.629.93.51.80.834.24.2SNPSNP
410169Renfrewshire East Kirsten Oswald72,23276.626.028.85.31.80.832.94.3SNPSNP
435144Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Allan Dorans71,97064.729.029.33.31.80.831.54.2SNPSNP
444135Stirling Alyn Smith68,47376.824.924.53.92.11.239.14.3SNPSNP
454125Aberdeen South Stephen Flynn65,71969.426.725.48.01.90.932.74.5SNPSNP
460119Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara66,52572.226.123.711.21.90.931.84.5SNPSNP
477102Ochil and South Perthshire John Nicolson78,77673.429.224.84.01.80.834.54.9SNPSNP
49584Perth and North Perthshire Pete Wishart72,60074.527.421.84.91.90.938.64.5SNPSNP
51961Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack74,58069.034.125.94.31.90.828.64.4CONCON
52456Gordon Richard Thomson79,62970.231.622.87.61.90.930.74.6SNPCON
53049Angus Dave Doogan63,95267.530.721.14.11.80.837.14.3SNPSNP
53446Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell68,33071.935.925.55.11.90.926.34.5CONCON
54535Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie72,64073.432.922.08.71.90.929.14.6CONCON
56020Moray Douglas Ross71,03568.735.221.43.31.80.832.25.2CONCON
57010Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont74,51871.338.122.15.71.90.926.84.6CONCON
5764Banff and Buchan David Duguid66,65563.439.621.03.91.90.828.44.4CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.