Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 25.1%6 21.0%06-60
LAB 18.6%1 19.0%00+01
LIB 9.5%4 6.0%04-40
Brexit 0.5%0 0.0%00+00
Green 1.0%0 0.0%00+00
SNP 45.0%48 53.0%100+1058
Other 0.3%0 1.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Banff and Buchan, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Stirling (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Aberdeen North (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
73491Edinburgh South Ian Murray66,18875.112.648.
84479Glasgow North East Anne McLaughlin61,07555.
103460Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss69,23057.
105458Glasgow South West Chris Stephens64,57557.18.834.
105458Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Steven Bonnar72,94366.19.835.
111452Glasgow North Patrick Grady57,13063.
115448Rutherglen and Hamilton West Margaret Ferrier80,91866.511.534.
118445Glasgow East David Linden67,38157.111.433.
129434Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows68,85664.512.432.
129434Glasgow South Stewart McDonald70,89166.910.
134429Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray64,01162.113.632.
140423Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty66,51767.911.
140423Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan60,62265.812.
140423Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Neale Hanvey72,85364.515.533.
145418Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan63,40262.711.728.
150413Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard69,42468.910.527.
163400Dundee West Chris Law64,43164.59.524.
172391Midlothian Owen Thompson70,54468.417.
175388Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald66,07969.112.424.
175388Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black64,38566.913.525.
180383Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,10668.617.628.
183380Glenrothes Peter Grant65,67263.312.823.
189374Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman76,65269.816.324.
190373Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock81,33673.014.322.
192371East Lothian Kenny MacAskill81,60071.721.929.
197366East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron81,22469.416.623.
202361Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands72,00769.
204359Livingston Hannah Bardell82,28566.317.722.
224339Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,21167.77.67.435.
224339Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown74,51763.919.619.
230333Dunbartonshire East Amy Callaghan66,07580.310.89.827.
230333Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day87,04466.420.
232331Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman62,48959.915.513.
249314Edinburgh West Christine Jardine72,50775.213.18.931.
250313Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry73,50170.920.
253310Fife North East Wendy Chamberlain60,90575.310.04.334.
254309Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone46,93067.
257306Dundee East Stewart Hosie66,21068.419.613.
259304Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford54,23073.513.36.915.
266297Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley77,65968.327.520.
277286Falkirk Johnny McNally84,47266.
290273Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson73,53465.526.
308255Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford69,74266.730.
308255Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry78,05970.
315248Renfrewshire East Kirsten Oswald72,23276.630.512.
324239Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Allan Dorans71,97064.733.913.
326237Stirling Alyn Smith68,47376.828.
336227Aberdeen South Stephen Flynn65,71969.431.
339224Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara66,52572.
347216Ochil and South Perthshire John Nicolson78,77673.434.
367196Perth and North Perthshire Pete Wishart72,60074.532.
398165Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack74,58069.
403160Angus Dave Doogan63,95267.535.
403160Gordon Richard Thomson79,62970.
421142Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell68,33071.941.
425138Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie72,64073.438.
460103Moray Douglas Ross71,03568.740.
50063Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont74,51871.343.
52142Banff and Buchan David Duguid66,65563.445.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.