Scotland: Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 12.7%5 12.7%00+05
LAB 35.3%37 35.3%00+037
LIB 9.7%6 9.7%00+06
Reform 7.0%0 6.9%00+00
Green 3.8%0 3.8%00+00
SNP 30.0%9 30.0%00+09
Other 1.5%0 1.6%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Airdrie and Shotts' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Edinburgh West (prediction: LIB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Ayrshire North and Arran (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
22512Airdrie and Shotts Kenneth Stevenson70,19952.24.651.
24510Coatbridge and Bellshill Frank McNally72,66753.33.649.
29505Dunbartonshire West Douglas McAllister69,07457.33.748.
31503Edinburgh South Ian Murray70,83966.18.553.
32502Rutherglen Michael Shanks72,67458.55.750.
34500Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Torcuil Crichton21,23563.74.849.
42492Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke Pamela Nash71,77754.
45489Glasgow North East Maureen Burke72,61047.03.545.
46488Glasgow West Patricia Ferguson69,02857.84.346.
48486Paisley and Renfrewshire South Johanna Baxter71,57457.75.447.
59475Midlothian Kirsty McNeill73,91659.87.348.
61473East Kilbride and Strathaven Joani Reid76,41561.17.648.
64470Paisley and Renfrewshire North Alison Suzanne Watt Taylor71,10358.46.447.
65469Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch Katrina Murray70,35058.24.745.
67467Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West Martin McCluskey70,12457.
68466Glasgow South West Zubir Ahmed68,87151.83.943.
69465Bathgate and Linlithgow Kirsteen Sullivan72,18558.37.447.
72462Hamilton and Clyde Valley Imogen Walker75,48055.810.950.
73461Glasgow East John Grady68,98851.44.843.
74460Glenrothes and Mid Fife Richard Baker70,65551.15.444.
79455Dunfermline and Dollar Graeme Downie72,82461.27.445.
80454Glasgow North Martin Rhodes67,57951.43.942.23.34.712.
81453Glasgow South Gordon McKee70,21960.43.841.
82452Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy Melanie Ward71,84556.87.845.
84450Lothian East Douglas Alexander75,45663.711.549.
94440Kilmarnock and Loudoun Lillian Jones74,62856.98.344.
98436Alloa and Grangemouth Brian Leishman70,68058.37.643.
102432Edinburgh East and Musselburgh Chris Murray76,18859.85.741.34.34.610.
104430Edinburgh North and Leith Tracy Gilbert78,41163.16.642.17.83.610.827.30.01.7LABLAB
113421Falkirk Euan Stainbank73,58457.98.443.
118415Dundee Central Chris Law74,22152.
129405Livingston Gregor Poynton78,04357.57.740.
168366Ayrshire Central Alan Gemmell69,41359.714.843.
169365Edinburgh South West Scott Arthur73,78461.912.
176358Renfrewshire East Blair McDougall73,38068.416.943.
184350Ayrshire North and Arran Irene Campbell72,17658.614.
255278Arbroath and Broughty Ferry Stephen Patrick Gethins76,14957.915.533.
264269Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman75,92555.413.930.
267266Mid Dunbartonshire Susan Murray73,59671.74.620.942.
281253Stirling and Strathallan Chris Kane76,28465.319.
287247Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Elaine Stewart70,34058.222.636.
330203Edinburgh West Christine Anne Jardine76,49068.65.515.
347186Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire Angus MacDonald77,92761.
364169Fife North East Wendy Chamberlain69,76261.23.99.454.74.93.823.20.00.1LIBLIB
374159Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,23660.
381152Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone74,62761.74.07.449.47.23.526.60.01.8LIBLIB
407126Aberdeen South Stephen Flynn77,32859.924.324.
420113Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber Brendan O'Hara71,75662.520.819.
43797Dumfries and Galloway John Cooper78,54158.329.525.
48153Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell71,90061.533.923.
48350Perth and Kinross-shire Pete Wishart77,26164.829.518.
48647Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Graham Leadbitter77,07260.429.917.
50033Angus and Perthshire Glens Dave Doogan76,66861.830.
52113Gordon and Buchan Harriet Cross69,60563.032.810.716.
52410Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Campbell Bowie72,99467.135.613.
5249Aberdeenshire North and Moray East Seamus Logan70,05854.532.710.27.314.
5295Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont76,43860.940.513.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.