Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 27.4%01-112
LAB 27.1%7 23.8%06-61
LIB 6.8%4 7.0%00+04
UKIP 0.2%0 1.4%00+00
Green 0.2%0 1.4%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 38.9%70+742
Minor 0.3%0 0.2%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Ayrshire Central (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Livingston (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
SNP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
128443Edinburgh South Ian Murray64,55374.118.451.23.21.31.324.60.00.0LABLAB
151419Glasgow North East Paul Sweeney59,93253.012.139.22.21.21.144.10.00.0LABSNP
168402Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Hugh Gaffney71,19863.315.238.92.31.21.241.10.00.0LABSNP
175395Glasgow South West Chris Stephens62,99156.214.636.82.12.61.242.70.00.0SNPSNP
178392Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss64,34655.913.034.73.11.21.246.70.00.0SNPSNP
191379Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty67,60265.216.134.02.51.21.244.90.00.0SNPSNP
193377Glasgow East David Linden66,24254.617.634.91.92.71.340.90.00.8SNPSNP
193377Glasgow North Patrick Grady53,86362.113.830.83.71.210.939.60.00.0SNPSNP
200370Rutherglen and Hamilton West Ged Killen80,09863.518.333.94.52.21.339.20.00.7LABSNP
203367Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan63,77360.916.932.23.81.31.244.60.00.0SNPSNP
203367Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows68,21561.519.034.12.52.61.340.70.00.0SNPSNP
204366Glasgow South Stewart McDonald69,12664.417.932.93.51.31.243.20.00.0SNPSNP
206364Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,30169.615.430.11.91.21.242.67.50.0SNPSNP
209361Dundee West Chris Law62,64461.715.129.43.31.21.248.70.01.0SNPSNP
211359Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan58,85366.420.233.82.81.31.340.70.00.0SNPSNP
211359Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard65,89666.017.431.04.51.31.244.60.00.0SNPSNP
213357Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald66,55465.917.130.23.12.61.245.70.00.0SNPSNP
215355Glenrothes Peter Grant66,37860.918.231.03.31.31.344.90.00.0SNPSNP
216354Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black61,34468.018.230.93.51.31.342.90.02.0SNPSNP
222348Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray64,14659.221.933.42.41.31.339.80.00.0SNPSNP
223347Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Lesley Laird72,72163.522.033.12.72.51.338.40.00.0LABSNP
232338Midlothian Danielle Rowley68,32866.324.232.74.11.31.336.60.00.0LABSNP
239331Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman75,67267.423.430.26.21.31.337.70.00.0SNPSNP
241329Livingston Hannah Bardell81,20864.723.129.03.11.31.342.20.00.0SNPSNP
246324Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman62,13059.221.426.34.91.31.343.50.01.3SNPSNP
252318East Lothian Martin Whitfield79,09370.628.332.43.41.31.332.70.00.6LABSNP
253317East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron80,44267.324.028.03.22.41.341.00.00.0SNPSNP
269301Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands67,43669.126.328.13.41.31.339.60.00.0SNPSNP
272298Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock79,47371.225.927.54.81.34.336.20.00.0SNPSNP
273297Falkirk Johnny McNally82,24065.424.926.12.32.63.041.10.00.0SNPSNP
273297Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,16468.18.19.348.71.90.730.20.01.0LIBLIB
284286Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown73,32763.425.425.22.41.31.344.50.00.0SNPSNP
286284Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day86,18665.127.827.43.71.31.338.50.00.0SNPSNP
292278Dunbartonshire East Jo Swinson66,30078.113.711.940.80.90.931.80.00.0LIBLIB
297273Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley77,31365.330.828.22.72.41.334.70.00.0SNPSNP
302268Dundee East Stewart Hosie65,85465.226.122.34.01.31.345.00.00.0SNPSNP
310260Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson73,17464.830.023.82.61.31.341.10.00.0SNPSNP
320250Edinburgh West Christine Jardine71,50073.820.612.234.51.01.030.40.00.2LIBLIB
322248Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry71,17869.432.123.14.61.31.337.70.00.0SNPSNP
327243Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford68,99765.333.122.42.61.31.339.40.00.0SNPSNP
328242Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone46,86865.921.310.136.00.90.930.70.00.0LIBLIB
339231Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford53,63871.723.610.021.10.90.941.80.01.6SNPSNP
349221Fife North East Stephen Gethins58,68571.322.87.833.00.80.834.20.00.5SNPSNP
355216Renfrewshire East Paul Masterton70,06776.738.723.02.31.31.333.40.00.0CONCON
355215Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry76,84468.729.213.212.51.11.141.70.01.1SNPSNP
365205Stirling Stephen Kerr66,41574.335.818.43.71.31.338.90.00.6CONSNP
374197Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Bill Grant71,24164.938.920.22.21.31.336.30.00.0CONCON
396174Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara67,23071.532.010.318.40.90.937.60.00.0SNPSNP
411160Ochil and South Perthshire Luke Graham76,76770.640.216.33.51.31.337.40.00.0CONCON
414157Aberdeen South Ross Thomson64,96468.540.916.96.11.31.333.60.00.0CONCON
422149Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack74,20669.542.017.22.71.31.334.60.01.0CONCON
468103Gordon Colin Clark78,53168.439.49.611.80.90.937.40.00.0CONCON
49971Perth and North Perthshire Pete Wishart71,74371.841.08.55.20.80.843.70.00.0SNPSNP
50170Angus Kirstene Hair63,84063.043.910.63.51.00.940.20.00.0CONCON
51655Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell67,67272.448.113.54.21.11.132.00.00.0CONCON
53635Moray Douglas Ross70,64967.446.38.92.40.90.840.30.00.4CONCON
53734Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie72,47771.246.69.08.80.90.833.90.00.0CONCON
54625Banff and Buchan David Duguid67,60161.646.77.73.60.80.840.40.00.0CONCON
5674Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont73,19171.552.67.04.90.70.734.00.00.0CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.