Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 26.0%03-310
LAB 27.1%7 24.3%06-61
LIB 6.8%4 7.0%00+04
UKIP 0.2%0 0.8%00+00
Green 0.2%0 1.7%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 40.0%90+944
Minor 0.3%0 0.2%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Renfrewshire East (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Falkirk (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
SNP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
95473Edinburgh South Ian Murray64,55374.117.151.83.20.61.625.80.00.0LABLAB
134433Glasgow North East Paul Sweeney59,93253.011.239.92.20.51.344.90.00.0LABSNP
148419Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Hugh Gaffney71,19863.314.139.52.30.61.442.10.00.0LABSNP
152415Glasgow South West Chris Stephens62,99156.213.537.42.11.91.443.60.00.0SNPSNP
155412Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss64,34655.912.135.43.10.51.347.60.00.0SNPSNP
174393Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty67,60265.214.934.62.50.61.546.00.00.0SNPSNP
178389Glasgow East David Linden66,24254.616.335.51.82.01.642.10.00.7SNPSNP
179388Glasgow North Patrick Grady53,86362.112.831.43.70.511.140.50.00.0SNPSNP
183384Rutherglen and Hamilton West Ged Killen80,09863.516.934.54.51.51.640.40.00.6LABSNP
184383Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan63,77360.915.632.83.80.61.545.70.00.0SNPSNP
184383Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows68,21561.517.634.72.41.91.641.80.00.0SNPSNP
186381Glasgow South Stewart McDonald69,12664.416.533.53.50.61.544.40.00.0SNPSNP
187380Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,30169.614.330.71.90.61.443.67.50.0SNPSNP
187380Dundee West Chris Law62,64461.714.030.03.30.61.549.80.00.9SNPSNP
189378Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan58,85366.418.834.52.80.61.641.80.00.0SNPSNP
189378Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard65,89666.016.131.64.50.61.545.70.00.0SNPSNP
190377Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald66,55465.915.830.83.12.01.546.80.00.0SNPSNP
192375Glenrothes Peter Grant66,37860.916.931.63.20.61.546.10.00.0SNPSNP
192375Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black61,34468.016.931.53.40.61.644.20.01.7SNPSNP
197370Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray64,14659.220.534.02.40.61.640.90.00.0SNPSNP
198369Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Lesley Laird72,72163.520.633.82.71.81.639.60.00.0LABSNP
211356Midlothian Danielle Rowley68,32866.322.833.34.10.61.637.70.00.0LABSNP
221346Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman75,67267.422.030.86.20.61.638.80.00.0SNPSNP
225342Livingston Hannah Bardell81,20864.721.729.63.10.61.643.40.00.0SNPSNP
228339Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman62,13059.220.026.94.90.61.644.70.01.2SNPSNP
231336East Lothian Martin Whitfield79,09370.626.933.03.40.61.633.90.00.5LABSNP
231336East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron80,44267.322.628.63.21.81.642.20.00.0SNPSNP
238329Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands67,43669.124.928.83.40.61.640.80.00.0SNPSNP
239328Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock79,47371.224.528.14.80.64.637.40.00.0SNPSNP
240327Falkirk Johnny McNally82,24065.423.526.72.31.93.242.30.00.0SNPSNP
246321Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,16468.17.59.748.71.50.830.80.00.9LIBLIB
248319Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown73,32763.424.025.82.40.61.645.70.00.0SNPSNP
249318Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day86,18665.126.428.13.70.61.639.70.00.0SNPSNP
263304Dunbartonshire East Jo Swinson66,30078.112.612.340.80.41.132.70.00.0LIBLIB
267300Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley77,31365.329.428.82.71.71.635.90.00.0SNPSNP
273294Dundee East Stewart Hosie65,85465.224.723.04.00.61.646.20.00.0SNPSNP
291276Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson73,17464.828.624.42.60.61.642.20.00.0SNPSNP
301266Edinburgh West Christine Jardine71,50073.819.212.634.50.51.431.50.00.2LIBLIB
303264Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry71,17869.430.723.74.60.61.638.90.00.0SNPSNP
308259Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford68,99765.331.723.02.60.61.640.50.00.0SNPSNP
311256Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone46,86865.919.910.536.00.51.231.80.00.0LIBLIB
321246Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford53,63871.722.210.321.10.51.343.10.01.5SNPSNP
325242Fife North East Stephen Gethins58,68571.321.48.233.00.51.235.30.00.4SNPSNP
327241Renfrewshire East Paul Masterton70,06776.737.323.62.30.61.634.60.00.0CONCON
328239Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry76,84468.727.813.712.50.61.543.00.01.0SNPSNP
337230Stirling Stephen Kerr66,41574.334.419.03.70.61.640.10.00.6CONSNP
342225Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Bill Grant71,24164.937.420.82.10.61.637.50.00.0CONSNP
364203Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara67,23071.530.510.618.40.51.338.70.00.0SNPSNP
375193Ochil and South Perthshire Luke Graham76,76770.638.817.03.50.61.638.60.00.0CONCON
378190Aberdeen South Ross Thomson64,96468.539.517.56.10.61.634.80.00.0CONCON
385183Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack74,20669.540.617.82.70.61.635.80.00.9CONCON
426141Gordon Colin Clark78,53168.438.010.011.80.51.238.50.00.0CONSNP
447120Perth and North Perthshire Pete Wishart71,74371.839.68.85.20.51.244.80.00.0SNPSNP
454114Angus Kirstene Hair63,84063.042.511.03.50.51.341.30.00.0CONCON
468100Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell67,67272.446.714.04.20.61.433.10.00.0CONCON
50068Moray Douglas Ross70,64967.444.99.32.50.51.241.40.00.4CONCON
50167Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie72,47771.245.29.48.80.51.235.00.00.0CONCON
51751Banff and Buchan David Duguid67,60161.645.38.03.70.41.141.50.00.0CONCON
55315Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont73,19171.551.27.34.90.41.135.10.00.0CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.