Scotland: Majority Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 18.0%010-103
LAB 27.1%7 17.0%06-61
LIB 6.8%4 13.0%10+15
Brexit 0.0%0 9.0%00+00
Green 0.2%0 2.0%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 38.0%161+1550
UKIP 0.2%0 0.5%00+00
Other 0.3%0 2.5%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Glasgow Central (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Brexit
%
Green
%
SNP
%
UKIP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
41412Edinburgh South Ian Murray64,55374.18.843.79.69.61.923.70.30.02.4LABLAB
75377Glasgow North East Paul Sweeney59,93253.05.831.77.68.01.643.10.30.02.0LABSNP
88364Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Hugh Gaffney71,19863.37.331.48.28.81.740.20.30.02.2LABSNP
105347Glasgow South West Chris Stephens62,99156.27.029.27.98.71.741.71.60.02.2SNPSNP
116336Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss64,34655.96.227.28.68.31.645.70.30.02.1SNPSNP
129323Glasgow East David Linden66,24254.68.427.38.19.41.939.91.70.03.2SNPSNP
129323Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty67,60265.27.726.48.69.01.844.00.30.02.2SNPSNP
136316Rutherglen and Hamilton West Ged Killen80,09863.58.726.310.99.61.938.21.20.03.1LABSNP
137315Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows68,21561.59.226.58.99.71.939.71.60.02.4SNPSNP
147305Glasgow South Stewart McDonald69,12664.48.525.39.89.51.942.30.30.02.4SNPSNP
151301Glasgow North Patrick Grady53,86362.16.623.29.38.411.438.70.30.02.1SNPSNP
151301Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan63,77360.98.124.710.09.21.843.60.30.02.3SNPSNP
157295Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan58,85366.410.426.39.29.71.939.70.30.02.4SNPSNP
160292Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,30169.67.422.57.88.91.841.70.37.52.2SNPSNP
161291Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard65,89666.08.323.410.79.41.943.70.30.02.3SNPSNP
165287Glenrothes Peter Grant66,37860.98.723.59.69.61.944.00.30.02.4SNPSNP
168284Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black61,34468.08.723.39.89.61.941.80.30.04.5SNPSNP
169283Dundee West Chris Law62,64461.77.221.89.28.81.747.70.30.03.2SNPSNP
170282Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald66,55465.98.222.79.39.31.844.81.70.02.3SNPSNP
174278Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray64,14659.212.125.88.89.71.938.80.30.02.4SNPSNP
175277Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Lesley Laird72,72163.512.225.69.29.71.937.51.50.02.4LABSNP
194258Midlothian Danielle Rowley68,32866.314.425.110.59.71.935.60.30.02.4LABSNP
204248Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman75,67267.413.622.612.79.71.936.70.30.02.4SNPSNP
207245Livingston Hannah Bardell81,20864.713.321.49.69.71.941.30.30.02.4SNPSNP
212240Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman62,13059.211.618.811.39.71.942.50.30.03.8SNPSNP
216236East Lothian Martin Whitfield79,09370.618.524.89.89.71.931.80.30.03.1LABSNP
216236East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron80,44267.314.320.59.79.71.940.11.50.02.4SNPSNP
233219Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands67,43669.116.520.69.99.71.938.60.30.02.4SNPSNP
234218Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock79,47371.216.119.911.39.75.035.20.30.02.4SNPSNP
234218Falkirk Johnny McNally82,24065.415.118.58.89.73.640.11.60.02.4SNPSNP
247205Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown73,32763.415.617.68.99.71.943.50.30.02.4SNPSNP
247205Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day86,18665.118.019.910.29.71.937.50.30.02.4SNPSNP
251201Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,16468.13.95.052.04.91.029.61.40.02.3LIBLIB
257195Dunbartonshire East Jo Swinson66,30078.16.56.445.57.11.431.10.20.01.8LIBLIB
257195Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley77,31365.321.020.69.19.71.933.81.40.02.4SNPSNP
265187Dundee East Stewart Hosie65,85465.216.314.810.59.71.944.00.30.02.4SNPSNP
271181Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson73,17464.820.216.29.19.71.940.10.30.02.4SNPSNP
273179Edinburgh West Christine Jardine71,50073.810.86.540.28.51.729.70.30.02.4LIBLIB
281171Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone46,86865.911.65.441.27.91.630.10.30.02.0LIBLIB
287165Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry71,17869.422.315.511.09.71.936.80.30.02.4SNPSNP
297155Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford53,63871.713.85.326.37.81.541.20.30.03.7SNPSNP
297155Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford68,99765.323.314.89.19.71.938.40.30.02.4SNPSNP
298154Fife North East Stephen Gethins58,68571.313.14.237.87.21.433.70.20.02.3SNPLIB
330122Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry76,84468.719.57.118.48.81.740.90.30.03.3SNPSNP
347105Renfrewshire East Paul Masterton70,06776.728.915.58.89.71.932.40.30.02.4CONSNP
36488Stirling Stephen Kerr66,41574.326.010.810.19.71.938.00.30.03.1CONSNP
38369Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Bill Grant71,24164.929.112.68.69.71.935.30.30.02.4CONSNP
38666Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara67,23071.522.25.523.77.91.637.00.30.02.0SNPSNP
43319Ochil and South Perthshire Luke Graham76,76770.630.48.810.09.71.936.50.30.02.4CONSNP
43517Aberdeen South Ross Thomson64,96468.531.19.312.69.71.932.70.30.02.4CONSNP
43814Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack74,20669.532.29.69.19.71.933.60.30.03.5CONSNP
4448Gordon Colin Clark78,53168.429.75.217.07.71.536.80.30.01.9CONSNP
4466Perth and North Perthshire Pete Wishart71,74371.831.24.510.17.41.543.20.20.01.8SNPSNP
4475Angus Kirstene Hair63,84063.034.15.78.88.01.639.60.30.02.0CONSNP
4494Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell67,67272.438.37.210.18.91.831.20.30.02.2CONCON
4493Moray Douglas Ross70,64967.436.54.87.57.51.539.70.20.02.3CONSNP
4503Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie72,47771.236.84.813.97.51.533.40.30.01.9CONCON
4502Banff and Buchan David Duguid67,60161.636.94.18.47.11.440.00.20.01.8CONSNP
4521Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont73,19171.542.83.89.56.91.433.60.20.01.7CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.