| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 12.7% | 5 | 12.5% | 3 | 0 | +3 | 8 |
| LAB | 35.3% | 37 | 22.0% | 0 | 10 | -10 | 27 |
| LIB | 9.7% | 6 | 8.5% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 6 |
| Reform | 7.0% | 0 | 18.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Green | 3.8% | 0 | 5.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| SNP | 30.0% | 9 | 30.0% | 10 | 3 | +7 | 16 |
| Other | 1.5% | 0 | 4.1% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Renfrewshire East' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Orkney and Shetland', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Stirling and Strathallan (prediction: SNP), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Dunfermline and Dollar (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | SNP % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 394 | Renfrewshire East | Blair McDougall | 73,380 | 68.4 | 4.4 | 46.6 | 0.5 | 9.5 | 1.3 | 32.9 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 30 | 393 | Rutherglen | Michael Shanks | 72,674 | 58.5 | 1.5 | 46.8 | 0.8 | 9.8 | 0.7 | 35.8 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 33 | 390 | Midlothian | Kirsty McNeill | 73,916 | 59.8 | 1.5 | 45.6 | 1.2 | 9.7 | 0.7 | 36.5 | 4.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 34 | 389 | Airdrie and Shotts | Kenneth Stevenson | 70,199 | 52.2 | 1.3 | 46.2 | 0.4 | 10.4 | 0.7 | 36.5 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 37 | 386 | Edinburgh North and Leith | Tracy Gilbert | 78,411 | 63.1 | 1.6 | 43.4 | 1.6 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 37.8 | 4.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 38 | 385 | Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke | Pamela Nash | 71,777 | 54.4 | 1.4 | 45.1 | 0.4 | 10.1 | 1.1 | 37.3 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 39 | 384 | East Kilbride and Strathaven | Joani Reid | 76,415 | 61.1 | 1.9 | 45.5 | 0.5 | 10.4 | 1.3 | 35.7 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 40 | 383 | Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West | Martin McCluskey | 70,124 | 57.5 | 1.7 | 44.7 | 0.6 | 9.7 | 1.1 | 37.5 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 42 | 381 | Glasgow West | Patricia Ferguson | 69,028 | 57.8 | 1.2 | 43.5 | 0.7 | 8.7 | 2.4 | 39.2 | 4.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 44 | 379 | Coatbridge and Bellshill | Frank McNally | 72,667 | 53.3 | 1.1 | 44.2 | 0.4 | 9.5 | 1.1 | 39.3 | 4.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 46 | 377 | Paisley and Renfrewshire South | Johanna Baxter | 71,574 | 57.7 | 1.4 | 44.1 | 0.6 | 9.9 | 1.2 | 38.3 | 4.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 49 | 374 | Dunbartonshire West | Douglas McAllister | 69,074 | 57.3 | 1.1 | 43.6 | 0.4 | 9.6 | 1.1 | 39.7 | 4.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 50 | 373 | Paisley and Renfrewshire North | Alison Suzanne Watt Taylor | 71,103 | 58.4 | 1.4 | 43.8 | 0.7 | 9.9 | 1.1 | 38.5 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 51 | 372 | Edinburgh South West | Scott Arthur | 73,784 | 61.9 | 3.2 | 43.0 | 1.6 | 9.4 | 2.5 | 35.6 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 53 | 370 | Glasgow North East | Maureen Burke | 72,610 | 47.0 | 1.2 | 42.7 | 0.4 | 9.8 | 1.8 | 39.9 | 4.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 54 | 368 | Glasgow South | Gordon McKee | 70,219 | 60.4 | 1.2 | 40.5 | 0.6 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 42.1 | 4.1 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 54 | 368 | Glasgow North | Martin Rhodes | 67,579 | 51.4 | 1.2 | 40.7 | 0.7 | 8.4 | 3.0 | 41.9 | 4.1 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 56 | 366 | Edinburgh East and Musselburgh | Chris Murray | 76,188 | 59.8 | 1.4 | 40.3 | 0.9 | 8.3 | 2.6 | 42.3 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 57 | 366 | Glasgow East | John Grady | 68,988 | 51.4 | 1.3 | 41.4 | 0.5 | 9.5 | 2.0 | 41.1 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 58 | 364 | Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch | Katrina Murray | 70,350 | 58.2 | 1.2 | 41.4 | 0.6 | 9.7 | 1.2 | 41.5 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 58 | 364 | Glasgow South West | Zubir Ahmed | 68,871 | 51.8 | 1.2 | 40.8 | 0.5 | 9.2 | 1.9 | 42.1 | 4.2 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 61 | 362 | Kilmarnock and Loudoun | Lillian Jones | 74,628 | 56.9 | 2.1 | 41.9 | 0.5 | 10.9 | 1.3 | 38.8 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 69 | 354 | Hamilton and Clyde Valley | Imogen Walker | 75,480 | 55.8 | 4.2 | 43.0 | 1.4 | 13.1 | 1.6 | 31.7 | 5.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 87 | 336 | Dunfermline and Dollar | Graeme Downie | 72,824 | 61.2 | 3.7 | 40.4 | 2.9 | 13.1 | 2.9 | 32.3 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 97 | 325 | Glenrothes and Mid Fife | Richard Baker | 70,655 | 51.1 | 2.0 | 37.8 | 1.5 | 12.5 | 1.2 | 40.6 | 4.4 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 127 | 296 | Falkirk | Euan Stainbank | 73,584 | 57.9 | 4.7 | 36.5 | 1.2 | 15.1 | 2.8 | 35.2 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 128 | 295 | Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy | Melanie Ward | 71,845 | 56.8 | 5.1 | 37.5 | 2.0 | 16.1 | 3.1 | 31.4 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 140 | 283 | Ayrshire Central | Alan Gemmell | 69,413 | 59.7 | 9.0 | 36.0 | 1.3 | 16.1 | 2.9 | 30.0 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 148 | 275 | Bathgate and Linlithgow | Kirsteen Sullivan | 72,185 | 58.3 | 5.4 | 36.3 | 3.1 | 17.3 | 3.4 | 29.8 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 150 | 273 | Edinburgh South | Ian Murray | 70,839 | 66.1 | 8.4 | 36.7 | 4.7 | 17.8 | 10.6 | 16.7 | 5.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 201 | 222 | Alloa and Grangemouth | Brian Leishman | 70,680 | 58.3 | 6.2 | 33.8 | 1.7 | 19.1 | 3.5 | 31.2 | 4.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 210 | 213 | Lothian East | Douglas Alexander | 75,456 | 63.7 | 10.3 | 32.9 | 4.4 | 19.2 | 6.6 | 21.6 | 5.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 213 | 209 | Dundee Central | Chris Law | 74,221 | 52.3 | 4.4 | 28.7 | 3.8 | 15.4 | 1.9 | 41.8 | 4.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 244 | 179 | Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) | Torcuil Crichton | 21,235 | 63.7 | 9.8 | 35.6 | 2.2 | 23.8 | 2.9 | 21.2 | 4.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 269 | 153 | Ayrshire North and Arran | Irene Campbell | 72,176 | 58.6 | 11.0 | 28.2 | 1.7 | 18.1 | 3.9 | 32.5 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 270 | 152 | Livingston | Gregor Poynton | 78,043 | 57.5 | 6.3 | 28.9 | 3.1 | 18.9 | 4.1 | 34.2 | 4.4 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 346 | 76 | Stirling and Strathallan | Chris Kane | 76,284 | 65.3 | 17.4 | 20.7 | 4.0 | 17.4 | 5.2 | 31.1 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 351 | 71 | Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock | Elaine Stewart | 70,340 | 58.2 | 20.9 | 22.7 | 2.1 | 19.7 | 3.9 | 26.3 | 4.4 | 0.0 | LAB | SNP |
| 377 | 45 | Arbroath and Broughty Ferry | Stephen Patrick Gethins | 76,149 | 57.9 | 16.7 | 18.0 | 4.7 | 19.4 | 1.4 | 37.7 | 2.2 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 381 | 41 | Aberdeen South | Stephen Flynn | 77,328 | 59.9 | 49.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 39.2 | 2.0 | 0.0 | SNP | CON |
| 386 | 36 | Aberdeen North | Kirsty Blackman | 75,925 | 55.4 | 13.0 | 18.3 | 4.9 | 21.0 | 4.2 | 34.5 | 4.2 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 387 | 35 | Perth and Kinross-shire | Pete Wishart | 77,261 | 64.8 | 40.9 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 4.9 | 0.5 | 46.1 | 3.6 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 393 | 29 | Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey | Graham Leadbitter | 77,072 | 60.4 | 43.3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 5.7 | 0.8 | 42.3 | 3.6 | 0.0 | SNP | CON |
| 393 | 29 | Dumfries and Galloway | John Cooper | 78,541 | 58.3 | 37.8 | 8.0 | 2.1 | 11.6 | 2.0 | 34.5 | 3.9 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 393 | 29 | Angus and Perthshire Glens | Dave Doogan | 76,668 | 61.8 | 40.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 5.1 | 0.5 | 47.3 | 3.5 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 394 | 28 | Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine | Andrew Campbell Bowie | 72,994 | 67.1 | 48.3 | 1.1 | 3.3 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 37.9 | 3.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 400 | 22 | Gordon and Buchan | Harriet Cross | 69,605 | 63.0 | 46.0 | 0.5 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 0.4 | 39.7 | 3.4 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 400 | 22 | Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk | John Lamont | 76,438 | 60.9 | 50.3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 7.1 | 1.2 | 33.6 | 3.4 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 402 | 20 | Dunbartonshire Mid | Susan Murray | 73,596 | 71.7 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 53.6 | 7.7 | 1.0 | 31.0 | 3.3 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 404 | 18 | Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale | David Mundell | 71,900 | 61.5 | 33.7 | 11.1 | 4.7 | 17.5 | 3.8 | 25.3 | 3.9 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 405 | 17 | Fife North East | Wendy Chamberlain | 69,762 | 61.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 60.1 | 7.3 | 1.0 | 27.6 | 2.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 409 | 13 | Edinburgh West | Christine Anne Jardine | 76,490 | 68.6 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 49.7 | 13.0 | 3.7 | 19.7 | 3.1 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 410 | 12 | Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire | Angus MacDonald | 77,927 | 61.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 45.9 | 8.6 | 1.1 | 39.1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 411 | 11 | Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber | Brendan O'Hara | 71,756 | 62.5 | 19.2 | 9.0 | 14.2 | 16.9 | 2.4 | 34.6 | 3.8 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 411 | 11 | Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross | Jamie Stone | 74,627 | 61.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 55.7 | 8.6 | 0.9 | 31.0 | 2.2 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 416 | 6 | Aberdeenshire North and Moray East | Seamus Logan | 70,058 | 54.5 | 38.7 | 0.8 | 3.5 | 13.9 | 1.2 | 38.6 | 3.3 | 0.0 | SNP | CON |
| 417 | 5 | Orkney and Shetland | Alistair Carmichael | 34,236 | 60.4 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 52.9 | 15.1 | 7.5 | 16.7 | 2.1 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.