Scotland: Sorted Seats

Scotland Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 12.7%5 12.4%01-14
LAB 35.3%37 18.0%033-334
LIB 9.7%6 10.4%00+06
Reform 7.0%0 17.0%00+00
Green 3.8%0 6.6%00+00
SNP 30.0%9 31.4%340+3443
Other 1.5%0 4.1%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Airdrie and Shotts' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Airdrie and Shotts (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
SNP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
32239Airdrie and Shotts Kenneth Stevenson70,19952.25.131.42.819.23.132.50.05.8LABSNP
37234Coatbridge and Bellshill Frank McNally72,66753.34.230.02.617.66.334.90.04.4LABSNP
42230Edinburgh South Ian Murray70,83966.18.333.16.715.612.318.20.05.8LABLAB
42229Dunbartonshire West Douglas McAllister69,07457.34.429.03.017.86.935.10.03.8LABSNP
42229Rutherglen Michael Shanks72,67458.56.030.64.917.53.131.50.06.5LABSNP
43229Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Torcuil Crichton21,23563.75.229.73.716.23.122.70.019.5LABLAB
58213Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke Pamela Nash71,77754.46.429.33.018.86.232.50.03.8LABSNP
63208Glasgow West Patricia Ferguson69,02857.84.827.24.216.012.332.00.03.6LABSNP
63208Glasgow North East Maureen Burke72,61047.04.226.52.617.310.333.70.05.5LABSNP
63208Paisley and Renfrewshire South Johanna Baxter71,57457.75.727.84.118.17.333.10.03.9LABSNP
68203Midlothian Kirsty McNeill73,91659.87.328.96.718.73.131.70.03.5LABSNP
68203East Kilbride and Strathaven Joani Reid76,41561.17.528.83.218.57.030.80.04.2LABSNP
69202Paisley and Renfrewshire North Alison Suzanne Watt Taylor71,10358.46.527.64.218.86.633.40.02.9LABSNP
70201Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch Katrina Murray70,35058.25.225.84.018.47.236.50.02.8LABSNP
74197Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West Martin McCluskey70,12457.57.127.44.017.26.032.70.05.6LABSNP
75196Bathgate and Linlithgow Kirsteen Sullivan72,18558.37.427.56.019.56.428.80.04.4LABSNP
76195Glasgow South West Zubir Ahmed68,87151.84.524.43.516.810.735.80.04.2LABSNP
80192Hamilton and Clyde Valley Imogen Walker75,48055.810.430.14.519.53.229.10.03.3LABLAB
86185Glasgow East John Grady68,98851.45.324.63.317.310.834.60.04.1LABSNP
88183Glenrothes and Mid Fife Richard Baker70,65551.15.825.05.320.53.137.60.02.8LABSNP
89182Dunfermline and Dollar Graeme Downie72,82461.27.426.38.017.57.828.70.04.4LABSNP
90181Glasgow North Martin Rhodes67,57951.44.523.24.215.215.233.40.04.3LABSNP
91180Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy Melanie Ward71,84556.87.726.34.818.86.929.50.06.0LABSNP
92179Glasgow South Gordon McKee70,21960.44.422.84.014.516.133.30.04.8LABSNP
93179Lothian East Douglas Alexander75,45663.711.029.26.417.98.323.10.04.2LABLAB
97174Kilmarnock and Loudoun Lillian Jones74,62856.98.125.52.919.36.034.40.03.8LABSNP
99172Alloa and Grangemouth Brian Leishman70,68058.37.524.63.720.26.530.40.96.2LABSNP
102169Edinburgh North and Leith Tracy Gilbert78,41163.16.723.08.714.414.028.80.04.3LABSNP
102169Edinburgh East and Musselburgh Chris Murray76,18859.86.022.35.115.213.334.50.03.5LABSNP
104167Falkirk Euan Stainbank73,58457.98.223.93.418.97.132.80.05.6LABSNP
108163Dundee Central Chris Law74,22152.34.619.77.016.33.041.40.77.3SNPSNP
109162Livingston Gregor Poynton78,04357.57.622.05.419.66.934.50.04.0LABSNP
127144Edinburgh South West Scott Arthur73,78461.911.622.07.515.610.728.80.03.8LABSNP
127144Ayrshire Central Alan Gemmell69,41359.714.324.53.219.55.628.70.04.2LABSNP
142129Renfrewshire East Blair McDougall73,38068.416.424.53.215.96.128.50.05.4LABSNP
146125Ayrshire North and Arran Irene Campbell72,17658.613.521.03.219.06.232.90.04.0LABSNP
17695Arbroath and Broughty Ferry Stephen Patrick Gethins76,14957.915.015.36.019.23.136.70.04.8SNPSNP
18190Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman75,92555.413.412.67.019.36.135.90.05.7SNPSNP
18190Dunbartonshire Mid Susan Murray73,59671.75.14.243.213.16.225.10.03.1LIBLIB
18487Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,23660.42.50.155.212.410.617.80.01.4LIBLIB
18685Stirling and Strathallan Chris Kane76,28465.318.515.85.916.97.732.50.02.7LABSNP
18685Fife North East Wendy Chamberlain69,76261.23.30.254.911.04.724.00.01.9LIBLIB
18685Edinburgh West Christine Anne Jardine76,49068.65.22.051.312.05.820.40.03.3LIBLIB
18685Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone74,62761.73.40.149.512.24.327.10.03.2LIBLIB
18784Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire Angus MacDonald77,92761.74.71.338.213.45.734.30.02.5LIBLIB
18883Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock Elaine Stewart70,34058.222.018.13.519.45.227.80.03.9LABSNP
23833Aberdeen South Stephen Flynn77,32859.923.87.67.216.96.534.10.03.9SNPSNP
24328Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber Brendan O'Hara71,75662.520.13.517.216.12.735.90.04.5SNPSNP
25913Dumfries and Galloway John Cooper78,54158.329.08.55.419.55.728.80.03.1CONCON
2665Perth and Kinross-shire Pete Wishart77,26164.828.73.18.015.02.539.00.03.7SNPSNP
2665Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Graham Leadbitter77,07260.429.13.08.816.56.033.30.03.3SNPSNP
2674Angus and Perthshire Glens Dave Doogan76,66861.828.91.87.115.01.841.60.03.8SNPSNP
2684Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell71,90061.533.46.07.218.56.425.60.03.0CONCON
2692Gordon and Buchan Harriet Cross69,60563.031.20.416.916.21.131.90.02.2CONSNP
2692Aberdeenshire North and Moray East Seamus Logan70,05854.531.10.27.521.71.036.30.02.2SNPSNP
2702Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Campbell Bowie72,99467.134.21.313.315.03.729.70.02.8CONCON
2711Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont76,43860.939.21.58.315.24.927.50.03.5CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.