Regression Poll May 2021

This page first posted 17 May 2021

Pollster Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus have run a regression poll on voting intention for Westminster on behalf of the Sunday Telegraph. This was a large-scale poll, involving over 14,000 respondents, carried out from 13 to 15 May 2021, after the recent local elections.

The poll asked GB residents whether and how they intend to vote if there were an imminent general election.

Using regression techniques, an individual prediction was made for each of the 632 seats (excluding Northern Ireland).

The headline results are shown in the table:

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsBasic VIPredicted VotesPredicted SeatsChange
CON 45%36543% 43%386+21
LAB 33%20330% 30%172−31
LIB 12%117% 11%9−2
Reform 2%03% 2%00
Green 3%19% 9%2+1
SNP 4%485% 5%58+10
PlaidC 0.5%40.7% 0.8%5+1

Footnote: the predicted vote share percentages differ slightly from the basic voting intention from the poll, as the regression techniques and models operate differently from classic polling analysis. This particularly affects the Liberal Democrats in this case where the more sophisticated approach estimates a higher vote share than classic polling analysis.

This gives an estimated Conservative lead over Labour of 13pc. This is large increase on their average lead of 5pc in polls taken before the local elections. It appears that the aftermath of the local elections has triggered a loss of support from Labour.

Voting Intention Change from GE 2019 to May 2021

The prediction is that the Conservatives would gain a landslide majority of 122 seats in the House of Commons.

Regression Polling

Modern polling analysis often uses statistical regression techniques to get more accurate and geographically detailed results. Also called MRP (multi-level regression and post stratification) they have been used successfully by Electoral Calculus and other pollsters to predict general elections, the 2021 local elections and the 2019 European elections.

These techniques work by spotting patterns between people's demographic characteristics and their likelihood to vote for various parties. You can see more details here.

Changes by Region

The Conservatives are predicted to pick up 23 seats from Labour in the Midlands and North of England, but only 6 seats in the London and the South. This includes more 'Red Wall' seats in Teesside, Sunderland, West Yorkshire and South Yorkshire.

The SNP are predicted to gain 10 seats in Scotland. This might be reduced if there is pro-Unionist tactical voting, which is not included in the MRP model.

In Wales, the Conservatives are predicted to lose two seats.

The Greens are predicted to hold Brighton Pavilion and to gain Bristol West from Labour.

Changes by MP

Some notable MPs are in danger of losing their seats:

Commentary

Chris Holbrook, CEO of Find Out Now said "As the successful vaccine rollout continues to endear the Conservatives to a beleaguered nation, Labour's rebuild seems to have not progressed past the destructive phase. The Greens are benefiting particularly at the moment from Labour's present weakness."

Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus said: "The aftermath of the local elections has seen a slide in support away from Labour. The Conservatives now have a double digit-lead over Labour, and could be on course for a landslide majority. The existential question is looming large for Labour as its traditional supporters continue to abandon it. A divided opposition with votes split between Labour, Lib Dems and Greens pretty makes it easy for the Conservatives to win. Only in Scotland and Wales, where the Conservatives are not the largest party, does their winning formula break down."

List of Seats Predicted to Change Hands

There are 45 seats which are predicted to change hands, relative to the election result of 2019. These are listed in the table below.

Seat NameCurrentPredictedMP as at 2019
Aberdeenshire West and KincardineCONSNPAndrew Bowie
Banff and BuchanCONSNPDavid Duguid
Barnsley EastLABCONStephanie Peacock
BedfordLABCONMohammad Yasin
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkCONSNPJohn Lamont
Birmingham ErdingtonLABCONJack Dromey
Bradford SouthLABCONJudith Cummins
BridgendCONLABJamie Wallis
Bristol North WestLABCONDarren Jones
Bristol WestLABGreenThangam Debbonaire
Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossLIBSNPJamie Stone
CanterburyLABCONRosie Duffield
ChesterfieldLABCONToby Perkins
Coventry North WestLABCONTaiwo Owatemi
Coventry SouthLABCONZarah Sultana
Dagenham and RainhamLABCONJon Cruddas
Doncaster CentralLABCONRosie Winterton
Doncaster NorthLABCONEd Miliband
Dumfries and GallowayCONSNPAlister Jack
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleCONSNPDavid Mundell
Edinburgh SouthLABSNPIan Murray
Edinburgh WestLIBSNPChristine Jardine
Fife North EastLIBSNPWendy Chamberlain
HalifaxLABCONHolly Lynch
HartlepoolLABCONMike Hill
HemsworthLABCONJon Trickett
Houghton and Sunderland SouthLABCONBridget Phillipson
Hull EastLABCONKarl Turner
LewesCONLIBMaria Caulfield
MorayCONSNPDouglas Ross
Normanton, Pontefract and CastlefordLABCONYvette Cooper
Oldham East and SaddleworthLABCONDebbie Abrahams
Plymouth Sutton and DevonportLABCONLuke Pollard
Reading EastLABCONMatt Rodda
Sheffield HallamLABLIBOlivia Blake
Stockton NorthLABCONAlex Cunningham
Sunderland CentralLABCONJulie Elliott
Walsall SouthLABCONValerie Vaz
WansbeckLABCONIan Lavery
Warwick and LeamingtonLABCONMatt Western
Weaver ValeLABCONMike Amesbury
Wentworth and DearneLABCONJohn Healey
Westmorland and LonsdaleLIBCONTim Farron
Wolverhampton South EastLABCONPat McFadden
Ynys MonCONPlaidVirginia Crosbie

Fieldwork

Find Out Now polled 14,715 GB adults online between 13-15 May 2021. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns. Regression techniques were used to infer projected seat results.

Find Out Now is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.