Pollster Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus have run a regression poll on voting intention for Westminster on behalf of the Daily Telegraph. This was a large-scale poll, involving over 10,000 respondents, carried out from 6 to 8 September 2021, as the government was announcing National Insurance and tax rises.
The poll asked GB residents whether and how they intend to vote if there were an imminent general election.
Using regression techniques, an individual prediction was made for each of the 632 seats (excluding Northern Ireland).
The headline results are shown in the table:
|Party||2019 Votes||2019 Seats||Basic VI||Predicted Votes||Predicted Seats||Change|
Footnote: the predicted vote share percentages differ slightly from the basic voting intention from the poll, as the regression techniques and models operate differently from classic polling analysis. This modifies the Liberal Democrat and Green vote shares slightly.
This gives an estimated Conservative lead over Labour of 4pc, which is significantly lower than both the Conservative lead at the last general election (12pc), and the Conservative lead at our previous regression poll in May 2021 (13pc).
The prediction is that the Conservatives would be fifteen seats short of an overall majority in the House of Commons.
Modern polling analysis often uses statistical regression techniques to get more accurate and geographically detailed results. Also called MRP (multi-level regression and post stratification) they have been used successfully by Electoral Calculus and other pollsters to predict general elections, the 2021 local elections and the 2019 European elections.
These techniques work by spotting patterns between people's demographic characteristics and their likelihood to vote for various parties. You can see more details here.
The Conservatives are predicted to lose seats particularly in the North West, Wales, London and the East Midlands, with Labour as the main beneficiary.
The SNP are predicted to gain 11 seats in Scotland. This might be reduced if there is pro-Unionist tactical voting, which is not included in the MRP model.
Some notable Conservative MPs are in danger of losing their seats:
Chris Holbrook, CEO of Find Out Now said "The Tory coalition that Boris has put together may be coming apart as fiscal reality bites."
Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus said: "Our poll shows the Conservative lead over Labour is narrowing enough to put the Conservative majority in jeopardy. Normal politics may be resuming after the covid hiatus, and the government’s tax raising plans have not given them an obvious poll boost at all, but rather the opposite."
The British Polling Council comments "All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party's support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points."
There are 59 seats which are predicted to change hands, relative to the election result of 2019. These are listed in the table below.
|Seat Name||Current||Predicted||MP as at 2019|
|Birmingham Northfield||CON||LAB||Gary Sambrook|
|Blyth Valley||CON||LAB||Ian Levy|
|Bolton North East||CON||LAB||Mark Logan|
|Bury North||CON||LAB||James Daly|
|Bury South||CON||LAB||Christian Wakeford|
|Carshalton and Wallington||CON||LIB||Elliot Colburn|
|Chingford and Woodford Green||CON||LAB||Iain Duncan Smith|
|Chipping Barnet||CON||LAB||Theresa Villiers|
|Cities of London and Westminster||CON||LAB||Nickie Aiken|
|Colne Valley||CON||LAB||Jason McCartney|
|Derby North||CON||LAB||Amanda Solloway|
|Durham North West||CON||LAB||Richard Holden|
|Heywood and Middleton||CON||LAB||Chris Clarkson|
|High Peak||CON||LAB||Robert Largan|
|Northampton South||CON||LAB||Andrew Lewer|
|Stoke-on-Trent Central||CON||LAB||Jo Gideon|
|Warrington South||CON||LAB||Andy Carter|
|West Bromwich East||CON||LAB||Nicola Richards|
|Wolverhampton South West||CON||LAB||Stuart Anderson|
|Clwyd South||CON||LAB||Simon Baynes|
|Preseli Pembrokeshire||CON||LAB||Stephen Crabb|
|Vale of Clwyd||CON||LAB||James Davies|
|Vale of Glamorgan||CON||LAB||Alun Cairns|
|Ynys Mon||CON||Plaid||Virginia Crosbie|
|Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine||CON||SNP||Andrew Bowie|
|Banff and Buchan||CON||SNP||David Duguid|
|Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk||CON||SNP||John Lamont|
|Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross||LIB||SNP||Jamie Stone|
|Dumfries and Galloway||CON||SNP||Alister Jack|
|Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale||CON||SNP||David Mundell|
|Edinburgh South||LAB||SNP||Ian Murray|
|Edinburgh West||LIB||SNP||Christine Jardine|
|Fife North East||LIB||SNP||Wendy Chamberlain|
|Orkney and Shetland||LIB||SNP||Alistair Carmichael|
Find Out Now polled 10,673 GB adults online between 6-8 Sep 2021. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns. Regression techniques were used to infer projected seat results.
Find Out Now is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.