Regression Poll September 2021

This page first posted 13 September 2021

Pollster Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus have run a regression poll on voting intention for Westminster on behalf of the Daily Telegraph. This was a large-scale poll, involving over 10,000 respondents, carried out from 6 to 8 September 2021, as the government was announcing National Insurance and tax rises.

The poll asked GB residents whether and how they intend to vote if there were an imminent general election.

Using regression techniques, an individual prediction was made for each of the 632 seats (excluding Northern Ireland).

The headline results are shown in the table:

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsBasic VIPredicted VotesPredicted SeatsChange
CON 45%36537% 37%311−54
LAB 33%20333% 33%244+41
LIB 12%1110% 12%12+1
Reform 2%04% 4%00
Green 3%19% 8%10
SNP 4%485% 5%59+11
PlaidC 0.5%40.9% 1.1%5+1

Footnote: the predicted vote share percentages differ slightly from the basic voting intention from the poll, as the regression techniques and models operate differently from classic polling analysis. This modifies the Liberal Democrat and Green vote shares slightly.

This gives an estimated Conservative lead over Labour of 4pc, which is significantly lower than both the Conservative lead at the last general election (12pc), and the Conservative lead at our previous regression poll in May 2021 (13pc).

Voting Intention Change from GE 2019 to Sep 2021

The prediction is that the Conservatives would be fifteen seats short of an overall majority in the House of Commons.

Regression Polling

Modern polling analysis often uses statistical regression techniques to get more accurate and geographically detailed results. Also called MRP (multi-level regression and post stratification) they have been used successfully by Electoral Calculus and other pollsters to predict general elections, the 2021 local elections and the 2019 European elections.

These techniques work by spotting patterns between people's demographic characteristics and their likelihood to vote for various parties. You can see more details here.

Changes by Region

The Conservatives are predicted to lose seats particularly in the North West, Wales, London and the East Midlands, with Labour as the main beneficiary.

The SNP are predicted to gain 11 seats in Scotland. This might be reduced if there is pro-Unionist tactical voting, which is not included in the MRP model.

Changes by MP

Some notable Conservative MPs are in danger of losing their seats:

Commentary

Chris Holbrook, CEO of Find Out Now said "The Tory coalition that Boris has put together may be coming apart as fiscal reality bites."

Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus said: "Our poll shows the Conservative lead over Labour is narrowing enough to put the Conservative majority in jeopardy. Normal politics may be resuming after the covid hiatus, and the government’s tax raising plans have not given them an obvious poll boost at all, but rather the opposite."

The British Polling Council comments "All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party's support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points."

List of Seats Predicted to Change Hands

There are 59 seats which are predicted to change hands, relative to the election result of 2019. These are listed in the table below.

Seat NameCurrentPredictedMP as at 2019
Birmingham NorthfieldCONLABGary Sambrook
Blyth ValleyCONLABIan Levy
Bolton North EastCONLABMark Logan
BroxtoweCONLABDarren Henry
BurnleyCONLABAntony Higginbotham
Bury NorthCONLABJames Daly
Bury SouthCONLABChristian Wakeford
Carshalton and WallingtonCONLIBElliot Colburn
CheltenhamCONLIBAlex Chalk
Chingford and Woodford GreenCONLABIain Duncan Smith
Chipping BarnetCONLABTheresa Villiers
Cities of London and WestminsterCONLABNickie Aiken
Colne ValleyCONLABJason McCartney
DarlingtonCONLABPeter Gibson
Derby NorthCONLABAmanda Solloway
DewsburyCONLABMark Eastwood
Durham North WestCONLABRichard Holden
GedlingCONLABTom Randall
HendonCONLABMatthew Offord
Heywood and MiddletonCONLABChris Clarkson
High PeakCONLABRobert Largan
HyndburnCONLABSara Britcliffe
KeighleyCONLABRobbie Moore
KensingtonCONLABFelicity Buchan
LeighCONLABJames Grundy
LewesCONLIBMaria Caulfield
LincolnCONLABKarl McCartney
Northampton SouthCONLABAndrew Lewer
PeterboroughCONLABPaul Bristow
PudseyCONLABStuart Andrew
Stoke-on-Trent CentralCONLABJo Gideon
WakefieldCONLABImran Ahmad-Khan
Warrington SouthCONLABAndy Carter
WatfordCONLABDean Russell
West Bromwich EastCONLABNicola Richards
WimbledonCONLIBStephen Hammond
WinchesterCONLIBSteve Brine
Wolverhampton South WestCONLABStuart Anderson
WycombeCONLABSteve Baker
AberconwyCONLABRobin Millar
BridgendCONLABJamie Wallis
Clwyd SouthCONLABSimon Baynes
DelynCONLABRob Roberts
Preseli PembrokeshireCONLABStephen Crabb
Vale of ClwydCONLABJames Davies
Vale of GlamorganCONLABAlun Cairns
WrexhamCONLABSarah Atherton
Ynys MonCONPlaidVirginia Crosbie
Aberdeenshire West and KincardineCONSNPAndrew Bowie
Banff and BuchanCONSNPDavid Duguid
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkCONSNPJohn Lamont
Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossLIBSNPJamie Stone
Dumfries and GallowayCONSNPAlister Jack
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleCONSNPDavid Mundell
Edinburgh SouthLABSNPIan Murray
Edinburgh WestLIBSNPChristine Jardine
Fife North EastLIBSNPWendy Chamberlain
MorayCONSNPDouglas Ross
Orkney and ShetlandLIBSNPAlistair Carmichael

Fieldwork

Find Out Now polled 10,673 GB adults online between 6-8 Sep 2021. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns. Regression techniques were used to infer projected seat results.

Find Out Now is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.