Pollster Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus have run a regression poll on voting intention for Westminster on behalf of the Daily Telegraph. This was a large-scale poll, involving over 10,700 respondents, carried out from 5 to 8 November 2021, as the government was battling sleaze allegations.
The poll asked GB residents whether and how they intend to vote if there were an imminent general election.
Using regression techniques, an individual prediction was made for each of the 632 seats (excluding Northern Ireland).
The headline results are shown in the table:
|Party||2019 Votes||2019 Seats||Basic VI||Predicted Votes||Predicted Seats||Change|
Footnote: the predicted vote share percentages differ slightly from the basic voting intention from the poll, as the regression techniques and models operate differently from classic polling analysis. This modifies the smaller parties' vote shares slightly.
This gives an estimated Conservative lead over Labour of only 1pc, which is down from 4pc from a similar poll for the Telegraph in September, and significantly down from 13pc in May.
The prediction is that the Conservatives would lose their majority in the House of Commons, but would still be the largest party. They would be twenty-five seats short of a majority. It would be possible for Keir Starmer to become Prime Minister with support from the SNP and the Liberal Democrats, assuming that Sinn Fein continue not to take their seats at Westminster.
Modern polling analysis often uses statistical regression techniques to get more accurate and geographically detailed results. Also called MRP (multi-level regression and post stratification) they have been used successfully by Electoral Calculus and other pollsters to predict general elections, the 2021 local elections and the 2019 European elections.
These techniques work by spotting patterns between people's demographic characteristics and their likelihood to vote for various parties. You can see more details here.
The Conservatives are predicted to lose seats particularly in the North West, North East, Wales and Yorks/Humber with Labour as the main beneficiary.
The SNP are predicted to gain 10 seats in Scotland. This might be reduced if there is pro-Unionist tactical voting, which is not included in the MRP model.
Some notable Conservative MPs are in danger of losing their seats:
Chris Holbrook, CEO of Find Out Now, said: "Sleaze allegations and cost of living concerns may well have created a path through the blue wall for a minority Labour government."Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus, said: "The public's dislike of parliamentary sleaze has further hurt the Conservatives in the polls, on top of the decline we saw after the government decided to increase taxes in September. Neither sleaze nor higher taxes are popular with voters and many have deserted the Conservatives. Labour now have a real chance of forming a minority government, but they are hobbled by the three-way division of the centre-left vote between themselves, the Lib Dems and the Greens."
There are 68 seats which are predicted to change hands, relative to the election result of 2019. These are listed in the table below.
|Seat Name||Current||Predicted||MP as at 2019|
|Altrincham and Sale West||CON||LAB||Graham Brady|
|Barrow and Furness||CON||LAB||Simon Fell|
|Birmingham Northfield||CON||LAB||Gary Sambrook|
|Bishop Auckland||CON||LAB||Dehenna Davison|
|Blackpool South||CON||LAB||Scott Benton|
|Blyth Valley||CON||LAB||Ian Levy|
|Bolton North East||CON||LAB||Mark Logan|
|Bury North||CON||LAB||James Daly|
|Bury South||CON||LAB||Christian Wakeford|
|Calder Valley||CON||LAB||Craig Whittaker|
|Chingford and Woodford Green||CON||LAB||Iain Duncan Smith|
|Chipping Barnet||CON||LAB||Theresa Villiers|
|Cities of London and Westminster||CON||LAB||Nickie Aiken|
|Colne Valley||CON||LAB||Jason McCartney|
|Crewe and Nantwich||CON||LAB||Kieran Mullan|
|Derby North||CON||LAB||Amanda Solloway|
|Don Valley||CON||LAB||Nick Fletcher|
|Durham North West||CON||LAB||Richard Holden|
|Heywood and Middleton||CON||LAB||Chris Clarkson|
|High Peak||CON||LAB||Robert Largan|
|Morecambe and Lunesdale||CON||LAB||David Morris|
|Stockton South||CON||LAB||Matt Vickers|
|Stoke-on-Trent Central||CON||LAB||Jo Gideon|
|Warrington South||CON||LAB||Andy Carter|
|West Bromwich East||CON||LAB||Nicola Richards|
|West Bromwich West||CON||LAB||Shaun Bailey|
|Wolverhampton South West||CON||LAB||Stuart Anderson|
|Clwyd South||CON||LAB||Simon Baynes|
|Vale of Clwyd||CON||LAB||James Davies|
|Vale of Glamorgan||CON||LAB||Alun Cairns|
|Ynys Mon||CON||Plaid||Virginia Crosbie|
|Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine||CON||SNP||Andrew Bowie|
|Banff and Buchan||CON||SNP||David Duguid|
|Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk||CON||SNP||John Lamont|
|Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross||LIB||SNP||Jamie Stone|
|Dumfries and Galloway||CON||SNP||Alister Jack|
|Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale||CON||SNP||David Mundell|
|Edinburgh West||LIB||SNP||Christine Jardine|
|Fife North East||LIB||SNP||Wendy Chamberlain|
|Orkney and Shetland||LIB||SNP||Alistair Carmichael|
Find Out Now polled 10,763 GB adults online between 5-8 November 2021. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns. Regression techniques were used to infer projected seat results.
Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus are both members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.
Full data tables are available here.