Pollster Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus have run a regression poll on voting intention for Westminster on behalf of the Daily Telegraph. This was a large-scale poll, involving over 10,200 respondents, carried out from 29 November to 1 December 2021.
The poll asked GB residents whether and how they intend to vote if there were an imminent general election.
Using regression techniques, an individual prediction was made for each of the 632 seats (excluding Northern Ireland).
The headline results are shown in the table:
|Party||2019 Votes||2019 Seats||Basic VI||Predicted Votes||Predicted Seats||Change|
Footnote: the predicted vote share percentages differ slightly from the basic voting intention from the poll, as the regression techniques and models operate differently from classic polling analysis. This modifies the parties' vote shares slightly.
This gives an estimated Conservative lead over Labour of only 1pc, which is down from 4pc from a similar poll for the Telegraph in September, and significantly down from 13pc in May.
The prediction is that the Conservatives would lose their majority in the House of Commons, and would only win a few more seats than Labour. They would be 38 seats short of a majority. It would be possible for Keir Starmer to become Prime Minister with support from the SNP.
Modern polling analysis often uses statistical regression techniques to get more accurate and geographically detailed results. Also called MRP (multi-level regression and post stratification) they have been used successfully by Electoral Calculus and other pollsters to predict general elections, the 2021 local elections and the 2019 European elections.
These techniques work by spotting patterns between people's demographic characteristics and their likelihood to vote for various parties. You can see more details here.
The Conservatives are predicted to lose seats particularly in the North West, East Midlands, Wales and Yorks/Humber with Labour as the main beneficiary.
The SNP are predicted to gain 11 seats in Scotland. This might be reduced if there is pro-Unionist tactical voting, which is not included in the MRP model.
Some notable Conservative MPs are in danger of losing their seats:
Chris Holbrook, CEO of Find Out Now, said: "A combination of a tough month for the Conservatives and Keir Starmer belatedly benefiting from media appearances are making some previously solid Tory seats look shakey."Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus, said: "Our latest poll with Find Out Now shows the Conservatives are not doing well with the public. Labour is now about equal in popularity and likely to win nearly as many seats if there were a sudden election. Given the parliamentary arithmetic, it could be more likely for Keir Starmer to be Prime Minister. That's a big change since Labour's relatively poor performance at the local elections earlier this year."
There are 82 seats which are predicted to change hands, relative to the election result of 2019. These are listed in the table below.
|Seat Name||Current||Predicted||MP as at 2019|
|Altrincham and Sale West||CON||LAB||Graham Brady|
|Barrow and Furness||CON||LAB||Simon Fell|
|Birmingham Northfield||CON||LAB||Gary Sambrook|
|Blackpool South||CON||LAB||Scott Benton|
|Blyth Valley||CON||LAB||Ian Levy|
|Bolton North East||CON||LAB||Mark Logan|
|Bury North||CON||LAB||James Daly|
|Bury South||CON||LAB||Christian Wakeford|
|Calder Valley||CON||LAB||Craig Whittaker|
|Chingford and Woodford Green||CON||LAB||Iain Duncan Smith|
|Chipping Barnet||CON||LAB||Theresa Villiers|
|Cities of London and Westminster||CON||LAB||Nickie Aiken|
|Colne Valley||CON||LAB||Jason McCartney|
|Crewe and Nantwich||CON||LAB||Kieran Mullan|
|Derby North||CON||LAB||Amanda Solloway|
|Don Valley||CON||LAB||Nick Fletcher|
|Durham North West||CON||LAB||Richard Holden|
|Hastings and Rye||CON||LAB||Sally-Ann Hart|
|Heywood and Middleton||CON||LAB||Chris Clarkson|
|High Peak||CON||LAB||Robert Largan|
|Morecambe and Lunesdale||CON||LAB||David Morris|
|Northampton North||CON||LAB||Michael Ellis|
|Northampton South||CON||LAB||Andrew Lewer|
|Penistone and Stocksbridge||CON||LAB||Miriam Cates|
|Rother Valley||CON||LAB||Alexander Stafford|
|Stockton South||CON||LAB||Matt Vickers|
|Stoke-on-Trent Central||CON||LAB||Jo Gideon|
|Warrington South||CON||LAB||Andy Carter|
|West Bromwich East||CON||LAB||Nicola Richards|
|Wolverhampton South West||CON||LAB||Stuart Anderson|
|York Outer||CON||LAB||Julian Sturdy|
|Clwyd South||CON||LAB||Simon Baynes|
|Clwyd West||CON||LAB||David Jones|
|Preseli Pembrokeshire||CON||LAB||Stephen Crabb|
|Vale of Clwyd||CON||LAB||James Davies|
|Vale of Glamorgan||CON||LAB||Alun Cairns|
|Ynys Mon||CON||Plaid||Virginia Crosbie|
|Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine||CON||SNP||Andrew Bowie|
|Banff and Buchan||CON||SNP||David Duguid|
|Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk||CON||SNP||John Lamont|
|Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross||LIB||SNP||Jamie Stone|
|Dumfries and Galloway||CON||SNP||Alister Jack|
|Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale||CON||SNP||David Mundell|
|Edinburgh South||LAB||SNP||Ian Murray|
|Edinburgh West||LIB||SNP||Christine Jardine|
|Fife North East||LIB||SNP||Wendy Chamberlain|
|Orkney and Shetland||LIB||SNP||Alistair Carmichael|
Find Out Now polled 10,272 GB adults online between 29 November and 1 December 2021. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns. Regression techniques were used to infer projected seat results.
Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus are both members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.
Full data tables are available here (Excel spreadsheet).