Regression Poll December 2021

This page first posted 3 December 2021

Pollster Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus have run a regression poll on voting intention for Westminster on behalf of the Daily Telegraph. This was a large-scale poll, involving over 10,200 respondents, carried out from 29 November to 1 December 2021.

The poll asked GB residents whether and how they intend to vote if there were an imminent general election.

Using regression techniques, an individual prediction was made for each of the 632 seats (excluding Northern Ireland).

The headline results are shown in the table:

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsBasic VIPredicted VotesPredicted SeatsChange
CON 45%36534% 36%288−77
LAB 33%20336% 35%271+68
LIB 12%119% 11%8−3
Reform 2%03% 3%00
Green 3%19% 8%10
SNP 4%486% 5%59+11
PlaidC 0.5%40.9% 1.2%5+1

Footnote: the predicted vote share percentages differ slightly from the basic voting intention from the poll, as the regression techniques and models operate differently from classic polling analysis. This modifies the parties' vote shares slightly.

This gives an estimated Conservative lead over Labour of only 1pc, which is down from 4pc from a similar poll for the Telegraph in September, and significantly down from 13pc in May.

Voting Intention Change from GE 2019 to Dec 2021

The prediction is that the Conservatives would lose their majority in the House of Commons, and would only win a few more seats than Labour. They would be 38 seats short of a majority. It would be possible for Keir Starmer to become Prime Minister with support from the SNP.

Regression Polling

Modern polling analysis often uses statistical regression techniques to get more accurate and geographically detailed results. Also called MRP (multi-level regression and post stratification) they have been used successfully by Electoral Calculus and other pollsters to predict general elections, the 2021 local elections and the 2019 European elections.

These techniques work by spotting patterns between people's demographic characteristics and their likelihood to vote for various parties. You can see more details here.

Changes by Region

The Conservatives are predicted to lose seats particularly in the North West, East Midlands, Wales and Yorks/Humber with Labour as the main beneficiary.

The SNP are predicted to gain 11 seats in Scotland. This might be reduced if there is pro-Unionist tactical voting, which is not included in the MRP model.

Changes by MP

Some notable Conservative MPs are in danger of losing their seats:


Chris Holbrook, CEO of Find Out Now, said: "A combination of a tough month for the Conservatives and Keir Starmer belatedly benefiting from media appearances are making some previously solid Tory seats look shakey."

Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus, said: "Our latest poll with Find Out Now shows the Conservatives are not doing well with the public. Labour is now about equal in popularity and likely to win nearly as many seats if there were a sudden election. Given the parliamentary arithmetic, it could be more likely for Keir Starmer to be Prime Minister. That's a big change since Labour's relatively poor performance at the local elections earlier this year."

List of Seats Predicted to Change Hands

There are 82 seats which are predicted to change hands, relative to the election result of 2019. These are listed in the table below.

Seat NameCurrentPredictedMP as at 2019
Altrincham and Sale WestCONLABGraham Brady
AshfieldCONLABLee Anderson
Barrow and FurnessCONLABSimon Fell
Birmingham NorthfieldCONLABGary Sambrook
Blackpool SouthCONLABScott Benton
Blyth ValleyCONLABIan Levy
BolsoverCONLABMark Fletcher
Bolton North EastCONLABMark Logan
BroxtoweCONLABDarren Henry
BurnleyCONLABAntony Higginbotham
Bury NorthCONLABJames Daly
Bury SouthCONLABChristian Wakeford
Calder ValleyCONLABCraig Whittaker
CheltenhamCONLIBAlex Chalk
Chingford and Woodford GreenCONLABIain Duncan Smith
Chipping BarnetCONLABTheresa Villiers
Cities of London and WestminsterCONLABNickie Aiken
Colne ValleyCONLABJason McCartney
CopelandCONLABTrudy Harrison
CorbyCONLABTom Pursglove
Crewe and NantwichCONLABKieran Mullan
DarlingtonCONLABPeter Gibson
Derby NorthCONLABAmanda Solloway
DewsburyCONLABMark Eastwood
Don ValleyCONLABNick Fletcher
Durham North WestCONLABRichard Holden
GedlingCONLABTom Randall
Hastings and RyeCONLABSally-Ann Hart
HendonCONLABMatthew Offord
Heywood and MiddletonCONLABChris Clarkson
High PeakCONLABRobert Largan
HyndburnCONLABSara Britcliffe
KeighleyCONLABRobbie Moore
KensingtonCONLABFelicity Buchan
LeighCONLABJames Grundy
LincolnCONLABKarl McCartney
LoughboroughCONLABJane Hunt
Morecambe and LunesdaleCONLABDavid Morris
Northampton NorthCONLABMichael Ellis
Northampton SouthCONLABAndrew Lewer
PendleCONLABAndrew Stephenson
Penistone and StocksbridgeCONLABMiriam Cates
PeterboroughCONLABPaul Bristow
PudseyCONLABStuart Andrew
RedcarCONLABJacob Young
Rother ValleyCONLABAlexander Stafford
RushcliffeCONLABRuth Edwards
SedgefieldCONLABPaul Howell
ShipleyCONLABPhilip Davies
SouthportCONLABDamien Moore
Stockton SouthCONLABMatt Vickers
Stoke-on-Trent CentralCONLABJo Gideon
StroudCONLABSiobhan Baillie
WakefieldCONLABImran Ahmad-Khan
Warrington SouthCONLABAndy Carter
WatfordCONLABDean Russell
West Bromwich EastCONLABNicola Richards
Wolverhampton South WestCONLABStuart Anderson
WorkingtonCONLABMark Jenkinson
WycombeCONLABSteve Baker
York OuterCONLABJulian Sturdy
AberconwyCONLABRobin Millar
BridgendCONLABJamie Wallis
Clwyd SouthCONLABSimon Baynes
Clwyd WestCONLABDavid Jones
DelynCONLABRob Roberts
Preseli PembrokeshireCONLABStephen Crabb
Vale of ClwydCONLABJames Davies
Vale of GlamorganCONLABAlun Cairns
WrexhamCONLABSarah Atherton
Ynys MonCONPlaidVirginia Crosbie
Aberdeenshire West and KincardineCONSNPAndrew Bowie
Banff and BuchanCONSNPDavid Duguid
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkCONSNPJohn Lamont
Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossLIBSNPJamie Stone
Dumfries and GallowayCONSNPAlister Jack
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleCONSNPDavid Mundell
Edinburgh SouthLABSNPIan Murray
Edinburgh WestLIBSNPChristine Jardine
Fife North EastLIBSNPWendy Chamberlain
MorayCONSNPDouglas Ross
Orkney and ShetlandLIBSNPAlistair Carmichael


Find Out Now polled 10,272 GB adults online between 29 November and 1 December 2021. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns. Regression techniques were used to infer projected seat results.

Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus are both members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.

Full data tables are available here (Excel spreadsheet).