Constituency List: Scotland

Aberdeen North

Prediction: SNP hold

MP at 2019:	Kirsty Blackman (SNP)
County/Area:	Grampian (Scotland)
Electorate:	62,489
Turnout:	59.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	20,205	54.0%	43.0%
CON	7,535	20.1%	15.6%
LAB	4,939	13.2%	29.4%
LIB	2,846	7.6%	3.3%
Reform	1,008	2.7%	1.1%
Green	880	2.4%	3.4%
OTH	0	0.0%	4.1%
SNP Majority	12,670	33.9%	13.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

79%

CON

LAB

20%

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Aberdeen South

Prediction: SNP hold

MP at 2019:	Stephen Flynn (SNP)
County/Area:	Grampian (Scotland)
Electorate:	65,719
Turnout:	69.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	20,388	44.7%	33.7%
CON	16,398	35.9%	29.8%
LIB	5,018	11.0%	5.0%
LAB	3,834	8.4%	24.2%
Reform	0	0.0%	1.1%
Green	0	0.0%	2.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	4.0%
SNP Majority	3,990	8.7%	3.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

51%

CON

32%

LIB

LAB

17%

Reform

Green

OTH

Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Andrew Bowie (CON)
County/Area:	Grampian (Scotland)
Electorate:	72,640
Turnout:	73.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,752	42.7%	36.1%
SNP	21,909	41.1%	30.1%
LIB	6,253	11.7%	5.5%
LAB	2,431	4.6%	20.9%
Reform	0	0.0%	1.1%
Green	0	0.0%	2.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	4.2%
CON Majority	843	1.6%	6.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

63%

SNP

30%

LIB

LAB

Reform

Green

OTH

Airdrie and Shotts

Prediction: LAB gain from SNP

MP at 2019:	Neil Gray (SNP)
County/Area:	Glasgow area (Scotland)
Electorate:	64,011
Turnout:	62.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	17,929	45.1%	37.7%
LAB	12,728	32.0%	42.4%
CON	7,011	17.6%	14.2%
LIB	1,419	3.6%	1.1%
Green	685	1.7%	1.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	0.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	2.4%
SNP Majority	5,201	13.1%	4.7% Pred Maj

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Result shown is the original general election result. Mr Gray resigned the seat in March 2021 to stand for the Scottish parliament. Anum Qaisar-Javed (SNP) won the seat in a by-election on 13 May 2021.

Chance of winning

SNP

39%

LAB

60%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Angus

Prediction: SNP hold

MP at 2019:	Dave Doogan (SNP)
County/Area:	Tayside (Scotland)
Electorate:	63,952
Turnout:	67.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	21,216	49.1%	38.1%
CON	17,421	40.4%	32.9%
LIB	2,482	5.7%	2.5%
LAB	2,051	4.8%	19.6%
Reform	0	0.0%	0.9%
Green	0	0.0%	2.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.8%
SNP Majority	3,795	8.8%	5.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

63%

CON

33%

LIB

LAB

Reform

Green

OTH

Argyll and Bute

Prediction: SNP hold

MP at 2019:	Brendan O'Hara (SNP)
County/Area:	Argyll and Bute (Scotland)
Electorate:	66,525
Turnout:	72.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	21,040	43.8%	32.8%
CON	16,930	35.2%	29.6%
LIB	6,832	14.2%	7.5%
LAB	3,248	6.8%	22.8%
Reform	0	0.0%	1.1%
Green	0	0.0%	2.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	4.1%
SNP Majority	4,110	8.6%	3.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

51%

CON

35%

LIB

LAB

14%

Reform

Green

OTH

Ayr Carrick and Cumnock

Prediction: SNP hold

MP at 2019:	Allan Dorans (SNP)
County/Area:	Ayrshire and Lanark (Scotland)
Electorate:	71,970
Turnout:	64.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	20,272	43.5%	32.5%
CON	17,943	38.5%	31.1%
LAB	6,219	13.3%	27.8%
LIB	2,158	4.6%	2.0%
Reform	0	0.0%	0.9%
Green	0	0.0%	2.0%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.7%
SNP Majority	2,329	5.0%	1.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

41%

CON

36%

LAB

23%

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Ayrshire Central

Prediction: SNP hold

MP at 2019:	Philippa Whitford (SNP)
County/Area:	Ayrshire and Lanark (Scotland)
Electorate:	69,742
Turnout:	66.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	21,486	46.2%	35.2%
CON	16,182	34.8%	27.7%
LAB	6,583	14.1%	28.5%
LIB	2,283	4.9%	2.2%
Reform	0	0.0%	0.9%
Green	0	0.0%	2.0%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.7%
SNP Majority	5,304	11.4%	6.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

55%

CON

22%

LAB

24%

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Ayrshire North and Arran

Prediction: SNP hold

MP at 2019:	Patricia Gibson (SNP)
County/Area:	Ayrshire and Lanark (Scotland)
Electorate:	73,534
Turnout:	65.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	23,376	48.5%	37.5%
CON	14,855	30.8%	24.7%
LAB	6,702	13.9%	28.1%
LIB	2,107	4.4%	1.9%
Green	1,114	2.3%	3.1%
Reform	0	0.0%	1.0%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.6%
SNP Majority	8,521	17.7%	9.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

65%

CON

12%

LAB

23%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Banff and Buchan

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	David Duguid (CON)
County/Area:	Grampian (Scotland)
Electorate:	66,655
Turnout:	63.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,182	50.1%	41.8%
SNP	17,064	40.4%	29.4%
LIB	2,280	5.4%	2.4%
LAB	1,734	4.1%	19.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	0.9%
Green	0	0.0%	2.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.9%
CON Majority	4,118	9.7%	12.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

80%

SNP

17%

LIB

LAB

Reform

Green

OTH

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	John Lamont (CON)
County/Area:	Borders (Scotland)
Electorate:	74,518
Turnout:	71.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	25,747	48.4%	40.7%
SNP	20,599	38.8%	27.8%
LIB	4,287	8.1%	3.6%
LAB	2,513	4.7%	20.7%
Reform	0	0.0%	1.0%
Green	0	0.0%	2.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	4.1%
CON Majority	5,148	9.7%	12.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

78%

SNP

17%

LIB

LAB

Reform

Green

OTH

Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2019:	Jamie Stone (LIB)
County/Area:	Highland (Scotland)
Electorate:	46,930
Turnout:	67.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	11,705	37.2%	30.5%
SNP	11,501	36.6%	25.6%
CON	5,176	16.5%	12.7%
LAB	1,936	6.2%	23.4%
Reform	1,139	3.6%	1.2%
Green	0	0.0%	2.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	4.4%
LIB Majority	204	0.6%	4.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

49%

SNP

28%

CON

LAB

21%

Reform

Green

OTH

Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill

Prediction: LAB gain from SNP

MP at 2019:	Steven Bonnar (SNP)
County/Area:	Glasgow area (Scotland)
Electorate:	72,943
Turnout:	66.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	22,680	47.0%	36.0%
LAB	17,056	35.4%	48.1%
CON	6,113	12.7%	7.8%
LIB	1,564	3.2%	1.4%
Green	808	1.7%	2.6%
Reform	0	0.0%	0.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.2%
SNP Majority	5,624	11.7%	12.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

21%

LAB

78%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East

Prediction: SNP hold

MP at 2019:	Stuart McDonald (SNP)
County/Area:	Glasgow area (Scotland)
Electorate:	66,079
Turnout:	69.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	24,158	52.9%	41.9%
LAB	11,182	24.5%	38.1%
CON	7,380	16.2%	11.0%
LIB	2,966	6.5%	2.9%
Reform	0	0.0%	0.9%
Green	0	0.0%	1.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.5%
SNP Majority	12,976	28.4%	3.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

59%

LAB

41%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Dumfries and Galloway

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Alister Jack (CON)
County/Area:	Dumfries and Galloway (Scotland)
Electorate:	74,580
Turnout:	69.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,678	44.1%	36.4%
SNP	20,873	40.6%	29.6%
LAB	4,745	9.2%	24.4%
LIB	3,133	6.1%	2.7%
Reform	0	0.0%	0.9%
Green	0	0.0%	2.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.9%
CON Majority	1,805	3.5%	6.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

61%

SNP

26%

LAB

13%

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	David Mundell (CON)
County/Area:	Dumfries and Galloway (Scotland)
Electorate:	68,330
Turnout:	71.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,611	46.0%	38.3%
SNP	18,830	38.3%	27.3%
LAB	4,172	8.5%	24.1%
LIB	3,540	7.2%	3.2%
Reform	0	0.0%	0.9%
Green	0	0.0%	2.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	4.0%
CON Majority	3,781	7.7%	11.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

70%

SNP

18%

LAB

12%

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Dunbartonshire East

Prediction: LIB gain from SNP

MP at 2019:	Amy Callaghan (SNP)
County/Area:	Glasgow area (Scotland)
Electorate:	66,075
Turnout:	80.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	19,672	37.1%	26.1%
LIB	19,523	36.8%	30.1%
CON	7,455	14.1%	10.8%
LAB	4,839	9.1%	24.0%
Green	916	1.7%	2.9%
OTH	626	1.2%	5.0%
Reform	0	0.0%	1.2%
SNP Majority	149	0.3%	4.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

29%

LIB

46%

CON

LAB

23%

Green

OTH

Reform

Dunbartonshire West

Prediction: LAB gain from SNP

MP at 2019:	Martin Docherty (SNP)
County/Area:	Glasgow area (Scotland)
Electorate:	66,517
Turnout:	67.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	22,396	49.6%	38.6%
LAB	12,843	28.5%	41.5%
CON	6,436	14.3%	9.4%
LIB	1,890	4.2%	1.8%
Green	867	1.9%	2.8%
OTH	708	1.6%	4.9%
Reform	0	0.0%	0.9%
SNP Majority	9,553	21.2%	2.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

43%

LAB

57%

CON

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Dundee East

Prediction: SNP hold

MP at 2019:	Stewart Hosie (SNP)
County/Area:	Tayside (Scotland)
Electorate:	66,210
Turnout:	68.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	24,361	53.8%	42.8%
CON	10,986	24.3%	18.6%
LAB	6,045	13.4%	27.8%
LIB	3,573	7.9%	3.5%
OTH	312	0.7%	4.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	0.9%
Green	0	0.0%	2.0%
SNP Majority	13,375	29.5%	15.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

82%

CON

LAB

15%

LIB

OTH

Reform

Green

Dundee West

Prediction: SNP hold

MP at 2019:	Chris Law (SNP)
County/Area:	Tayside (Scotland)
Electorate:	64,431
Turnout:	64.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	22,355	53.8%	42.8%
LAB	10,096	24.3%	39.5%
CON	5,149	12.4%	7.6%
LIB	2,468	5.9%	2.6%
Reform	1,271	3.1%	0.9%
OTH	240	0.6%	4.5%
Green	0	0.0%	2.1%
SNP Majority	12,259	29.5%	3.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

57%

LAB

43%

CON

LIB

Reform

OTH

Green

Dunfermline and West Fife

Prediction: LAB gain from SNP

MP at 2019:	Douglas Chapman (SNP)
County/Area:	Fife (Scotland)
Electorate:	76,652
Turnout:	69.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	23,727	44.4%	33.4%
LAB	13,028	24.4%	38.9%
CON	11,207	21.0%	16.2%
LIB	4,262	8.0%	3.5%
Green	1,258	2.4%	3.2%
Reform	0	0.0%	1.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.7%
SNP Majority	10,699	20.0%	5.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

35%

LAB

64%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow

Prediction: LAB gain from SNP

MP at 2019:	Lisa Cameron (SNP)
County/Area:	Ayrshire and Lanark (Scotland)
Electorate:	81,224
Turnout:	69.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	26,113	46.4%	35.3%
LAB	12,791	22.7%	36.9%
CON	11,961	21.2%	16.2%
LIB	3,760	6.7%	2.9%
Green	1,153	2.0%	3.0%
OTH	559	1.0%	4.6%
Reform	0	0.0%	1.0%
SNP Majority	13,322	23.6%	1.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

44%

LAB

56%

CON

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

East Lothian

Prediction: LAB gain from SNP

MP at 2019:	Kenny MacAskill (SNP)
County/Area:	Edinburgh area (Scotland)
Electorate:	81,600
Turnout:	71.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	21,156	36.2%	25.2%
LAB	17,270	29.5%	43.9%
CON	15,523	26.5%	20.5%
LIB	4,071	7.0%	3.1%
OTH	493	0.8%	4.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	0.9%
Green	0	0.0%	2.0%
SNP Majority	3,886	6.6%	18.7% Pred Maj

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Result shown is the original general election result. Mr MacAskill won the seat as the SNP candidate, but in March 2021 he left the SNP and joined the Alba party.

Chance of winning

SNP

10%

LAB

87%

CON

LIB

OTH

Reform

Green

Edinburgh East

Prediction: LAB gain from SNP

MP at 2019:	Tommy Sheppard (SNP)
County/Area:	Edinburgh area (Scotland)
Electorate:	69,424
Turnout:	68.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	23,165	48.4%	37.4%
LAB	12,748	26.7%	40.7%
CON	6,549	13.7%	10.0%
LIB	3,289	6.9%	3.0%
Green	2,064	4.3%	4.1%
Reform	0	0.0%	1.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.6%
SNP Majority	10,417	21.8%	3.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

40%

LAB

60%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Edinburgh North and Leith

Prediction: LAB gain from SNP

MP at 2019:	Deidre Brock (SNP)
County/Area:	Edinburgh area (Scotland)
Electorate:	81,336
Turnout:	73.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	25,925	43.7%	32.7%
LAB	13,117	22.1%	37.9%
CON	11,000	18.5%	14.9%
LIB	6,635	11.2%	5.2%
Green	1,971	3.3%	3.8%
Reform	558	0.9%	1.2%
OTH	138	0.2%	4.3%
SNP Majority	12,808	21.6%	5.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

35%

LAB

64%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Edinburgh South

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Ian Murray (LAB)
County/Area:	Edinburgh area (Scotland)
Electorate:	66,188
Turnout:	75.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,745	47.7%	62.0%
SNP	12,650	25.4%	14.4%
CON	8,161	16.4%	12.2%
LIB	3,819	7.7%	3.4%
Green	1,357	2.7%	3.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	1.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.6%
LAB Majority	11,095	22.3%	47.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

SNP

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Edinburgh South West

Prediction: SNP hold

MP at 2019:	Joanna Cherry (SNP)
County/Area:	Edinburgh area (Scotland)
Electorate:	73,501
Turnout:	70.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	24,830	47.6%	36.6%
CON	12,848	24.6%	19.9%
LAB	7,478	14.3%	30.4%
LIB	4,971	9.5%	4.2%
Green	1,265	2.4%	3.4%
Reform	625	1.2%	1.1%
OTH	114	0.2%	4.3%
SNP Majority	11,982	23.0%	6.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

63%

CON

LAB

32%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Edinburgh West

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2019:	Christine Jardine (LIB)
County/Area:	Edinburgh area (Scotland)
Electorate:	72,507
Turnout:	75.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	21,766	39.9%	33.2%
SNP	17,997	33.0%	22.0%
CON	9,283	17.0%	13.5%
LAB	4,460	8.2%	23.3%
Green	1,027	1.9%	3.0%
Reform	0	0.0%	1.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.8%
LIB Majority	3,769	6.9%	9.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

62%

SNP

14%

CON

LAB

21%

Green

Reform

OTH

Falkirk

Prediction: SNP hold

MP at 2019:	Johnny McNally (SNP)
County/Area:	Central (Scotland)
Electorate:	84,472
Turnout:	66.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	29,351	52.5%	41.5%
CON	14,403	25.8%	20.8%
LAB	6,243	11.2%	25.9%
LIB	3,990	7.1%	3.1%
Green	1,885	3.4%	3.8%
Reform	0	0.0%	1.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.8%
SNP Majority	14,948	26.8%	15.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

81%

CON

LAB

13%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Fife North East

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2019:	Wendy Chamberlain (LIB)
County/Area:	Fife (Scotland)
Electorate:	60,905
Turnout:	75.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	19,763	43.1%	36.4%
SNP	18,447	40.2%	29.2%
CON	5,961	13.0%	9.3%
LAB	1,707	3.7%	18.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	1.1%
Green	0	0.0%	1.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.7%
LIB Majority	1,316	2.9%	7.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

66%

SNP

28%

CON

LAB

Reform

Green

OTH

Glasgow Central

Prediction: LAB gain from SNP

MP at 2019:	Alison Thewliss (SNP)
County/Area:	Glasgow area (Scotland)
Electorate:	69,230
Turnout:	57.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	19,750	49.2%	38.2%
LAB	13,276	33.1%	45.8%
CON	3,698	9.2%	6.0%
LIB	1,952	4.9%	2.1%
Green	1,429	3.6%	3.6%
Reform	0	0.0%	1.0%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.2%
SNP Majority	6,474	16.1%	7.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

30%

LAB

70%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Glasgow East

Prediction: LAB gain from SNP

MP at 2019:	David Linden (SNP)
County/Area:	Glasgow area (Scotland)
Electorate:	67,381
Turnout:	57.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	18,357	47.7%	36.7%
LAB	12,791	33.2%	46.1%
CON	5,709	14.8%	9.4%
LIB	1,626	4.2%	1.9%
Reform	0	0.0%	0.8%
Green	0	0.0%	1.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.3%
SNP Majority	5,566	14.5%	9.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

27%

LAB

73%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Glasgow North

Prediction: LAB gain from SNP

MP at 2019:	Patrick Grady (SNP)
County/Area:	Glasgow area (Scotland)
Electorate:	57,130
Turnout:	63.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	16,982	46.9%	35.9%
LAB	11,381	31.4%	45.7%
CON	3,806	10.5%	6.9%
LIB	2,394	6.6%	2.9%
Green	1,308	3.6%	3.8%
Reform	320	0.9%	1.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.6%
SNP Majority	5,601	15.5%	9.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

27%

LAB

73%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Glasgow North East

Prediction: LAB gain from SNP

MP at 2019:	Anne McLaughlin (SNP)
County/Area:	Glasgow area (Scotland)
Electorate:	61,075
Turnout:	55.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	15,911	46.9%	35.9%
LAB	13,363	39.4%	51.7%
CON	3,558	10.5%	5.3%
LIB	1,093	3.2%	1.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	0.8%
Green	0	0.0%	1.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.2%
SNP Majority	2,548	7.5%	15.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

16%

LAB

84%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Glasgow North West

Prediction: LAB gain from SNP

MP at 2019:	Carol Monaghan (SNP)
County/Area:	Glasgow area (Scotland)
Electorate:	63,402
Turnout:	62.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	19,678	49.5%	38.5%
LAB	11,319	28.5%	42.1%
CON	6,022	15.2%	10.1%
LIB	2,716	6.8%	3.0%
Reform	0	0.0%	0.9%
Green	0	0.0%	1.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.5%
SNP Majority	8,359	21.0%	3.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

39%

LAB

61%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Glasgow South

Prediction: LAB gain from SNP

MP at 2019:	Stewart McDonald (SNP)
County/Area:	Glasgow area (Scotland)
Electorate:	70,891
Turnout:	66.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	22,829	48.1%	37.1%
LAB	13,824	29.1%	43.4%
CON	6,237	13.1%	8.9%
LIB	2,786	5.9%	2.6%
Green	1,251	2.6%	3.3%
Reform	516	1.1%	1.0%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.6%
SNP Majority	9,005	19.0%	6.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

34%

LAB

66%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Glasgow South West

Prediction: LAB gain from SNP

MP at 2019:	Chris Stephens (SNP)
County/Area:	Glasgow area (Scotland)
Electorate:	64,575
Turnout:	57.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	17,643	47.9%	36.9%
LAB	12,743	34.6%	48.6%
CON	4,224	11.5%	6.4%
LIB	1,435	3.9%	1.7%
Reform	802	2.2%	0.8%
Green	0	0.0%	1.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.6%
SNP Majority	4,900	13.3%	11.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

22%

LAB

78%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Glenrothes

Prediction: SNP hold

MP at 2019:	Peter Grant (SNP)
County/Area:	Fife (Scotland)
Electorate:	65,672
Turnout:	63.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	21,234	51.1%	40.1%
LAB	9,477	22.8%	38.4%
CON	6,920	16.7%	11.6%
LIB	2,639	6.4%	2.8%
Reform	1,276	3.1%	0.9%
Green	0	0.0%	2.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	4.0%
SNP Majority	11,757	28.3%	1.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

54%

LAB

45%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Gordon

Prediction: CON gain from SNP

MP at 2019:	Richard Thomson (SNP)
County/Area:	Grampian (Scotland)
Electorate:	79,629
Turnout:	70.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	23,885	42.7%	31.7%
CON	23,066	41.3%	34.5%
LIB	5,913	10.6%	4.8%
LAB	3,052	5.5%	21.6%
Reform	0	0.0%	1.0%
Green	0	0.0%	2.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	4.1%
SNP Majority	819	1.5%	2.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

38%

CON

52%

LIB

LAB

10%

Reform

Green

OTH

Inverclyde

Prediction: LAB gain from SNP

MP at 2019:	Ronnie Cowan (SNP)
County/Area:	Glasgow area (Scotland)
Electorate:	60,622
Turnout:	65.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	19,295	48.4%	37.3%
LAB	11,783	29.5%	43.1%
CON	6,265	15.7%	10.6%
LIB	2,560	6.4%	2.8%
Reform	0	0.0%	0.9%
Green	0	0.0%	1.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.5%
SNP Majority	7,512	18.8%	5.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

35%

LAB

65%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey

Prediction: SNP hold

MP at 2019:	Drew Hendry (SNP)
County/Area:	Highland (Scotland)
Electorate:	78,059
Turnout:	70.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	26,247	47.9%	36.9%
CON	15,807	28.8%	24.2%
LIB	5,846	10.7%	4.8%
LAB	4,123	7.5%	24.6%
Green	1,709	3.1%	3.9%
Reform	1,078	2.0%	1.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	4.3%
SNP Majority	10,440	19.0%	12.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

68%

CON

14%

LIB

LAB

18%

Green

Reform

OTH

Kilmarnock and Loudoun

Prediction: SNP hold

MP at 2019:	Alan Brown (SNP)
County/Area:	Ayrshire and Lanark (Scotland)
Electorate:	74,517
Turnout:	63.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	24,216	50.8%	39.8%
CON	11,557	24.3%	18.2%
LAB	9,009	18.9%	32.6%
LIB	2,444	5.1%	2.3%
OTH	405	0.9%	4.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	0.9%
Green	0	0.0%	1.9%
SNP Majority	12,659	26.6%	7.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

66%

CON

LAB

31%

LIB

OTH

Reform

Green

Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath

Prediction: LAB gain from SNP

MP at 2019:	Neale Hanvey (SNP)
County/Area:	Fife (Scotland)
Electorate:	72,853
Turnout:	64.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	16,568	35.2%	24.2%
LAB	15,325	32.6%	48.3%
CON	9,449	20.1%	15.6%
LIB	2,903	6.2%	2.7%
Green	1,628	3.5%	4.0%
Reform	1,132	2.4%	1.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	4.0%
SNP Majority	1,243	2.6%	24.1% Pred Maj

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Result shown is the original general election result. Mr Hanvey won the seat, having been nominated as the SNP candidate, even though he was suspended by the party at the time of the election. In March 2021, he left the SNP and joined the Alba party.

Chance of winning

SNP

LAB

93%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Lanark and Hamilton East

Prediction: LAB gain from SNP

MP at 2019:	Angela Crawley (SNP)
County/Area:	Ayrshire and Lanark (Scotland)
Electorate:	77,659
Turnout:	68.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	22,243	41.9%	30.9%
CON	17,056	32.1%	25.4%
LAB	10,736	20.2%	34.6%
LIB	3,037	5.7%	2.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	0.9%
Green	0	0.0%	2.0%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.7%
SNP Majority	5,187	9.8%	3.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

34%

CON

13%

LAB

53%

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Linlithgow and East Falkirk

Prediction: LAB gain from SNP

MP at 2019:	Martyn Day (SNP)
County/Area:	Edinburgh area (Scotland)
Electorate:	87,044
Turnout:	66.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	25,551	44.2%	33.2%
CON	14,285	24.7%	19.7%
LAB	10,517	18.2%	34.3%
LIB	4,393	7.6%	3.3%
Reform	1,257	2.2%	1.1%
Green	1,184	2.0%	3.3%
OTH	588	1.0%	5.1%
SNP Majority	11,266	19.5%	1.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

45%

CON

LAB

50%

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Livingston

Prediction: LAB gain from SNP

MP at 2019:	Hannah Bardell (SNP)
County/Area:	Edinburgh area (Scotland)
Electorate:	82,285
Turnout:	66.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	25,617	46.9%	35.9%
CON	12,182	22.3%	17.3%
LAB	11,915	21.8%	36.0%
LIB	3,457	6.3%	2.8%
Green	1,421	2.6%	3.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	1.0%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.6%
SNP Majority	13,435	24.6%	0.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

48%

CON

LAB

50%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Midlothian

Prediction: LAB gain from SNP

MP at 2019:	Owen Thompson (SNP)
County/Area:	Edinburgh area (Scotland)
Electorate:	70,544
Turnout:	68.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	20,033	41.5%	30.5%
LAB	14,328	29.7%	43.8%
CON	10,467	21.7%	16.1%
LIB	3,393	7.0%	3.1%
Reform	0	0.0%	0.9%
Green	0	0.0%	1.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.6%
SNP Majority	5,705	11.8%	13.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

18%

LAB

81%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Moray

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Douglas Ross (CON)
County/Area:	Grampian (Scotland)
Electorate:	71,035
Turnout:	68.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,112	45.3%	37.3%
SNP	21,599	44.2%	33.2%
LAB	2,432	5.0%	19.9%
LIB	2,269	4.6%	2.0%
OTH	413	0.8%	4.7%
Reform	0	0.0%	0.9%
Green	0	0.0%	2.1%
CON Majority	513	1.1%	4.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

60%

SNP

36%

LAB

LIB

OTH

Reform

Green

Motherwell and Wishaw

Prediction: LAB gain from SNP

MP at 2019:	Marion Fellows (SNP)
County/Area:	Glasgow area (Scotland)
Electorate:	68,856
Turnout:	64.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	20,622	46.4%	35.4%
LAB	14,354	32.3%	45.2%
CON	7,150	16.1%	10.5%
LIB	1,675	3.8%	1.7%
OTH	619	1.4%	4.7%
Reform	0	0.0%	0.8%
Green	0	0.0%	1.8%
SNP Majority	6,268	14.1%	9.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

26%

LAB

74%

CON

LIB

OTH

Reform

Green

Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)

Prediction: LAB gain from SNP

MP at 2019:	Angus MacNeil (SNP)
County/Area:	Western Isles (Scotland)
Electorate:	21,106
Turnout:	68.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	6,531	45.1%	34.1%
LAB	4,093	28.3%	41.7%
CON	3,216	22.2%	16.2%
LIB	637	4.4%	1.9%
Reform	0	0.0%	0.8%
Green	0	0.0%	1.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.4%
SNP Majority	2,438	16.8%	7.6% Pred Maj

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Result shown is the original general election result. Angus MacNeil left the SNP in August 2023.

Chance of winning

SNP

30%

LAB

68%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Ochil and South Perthshire

Prediction: SNP hold

MP at 2019:	John Nicolson (SNP)
County/Area:	Tayside (Scotland)
Electorate:	78,776
Turnout:	73.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	26,882	46.5%	35.5%
CON	22,384	38.7%	31.4%
LAB	4,961	8.6%	23.3%
LIB	3,204	5.5%	2.4%
OTH	382	0.7%	4.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	0.9%
Green	0	0.0%	2.0%
SNP Majority	4,498	7.8%	4.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

56%

CON

34%

LAB

10%

LIB

OTH

Reform

Green

Orkney and Shetland

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2019:	Alistair Carmichael (LIB)
County/Area:	Orkney and Shetland (Scotland)
Electorate:	34,211
Turnout:	67.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	10,381	44.8%	38.1%
SNP	7,874	34.0%	23.0%
CON	2,287	9.9%	6.8%
LAB	1,550	6.7%	23.6%
Reform	900	3.9%	1.2%
OTH	168	0.7%	5.0%
Green	0	0.0%	2.3%
LIB Majority	2,507	10.8%	14.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

74%

SNP

11%

CON

LAB

14%

Reform

OTH

Green

Paisley and Renfrewshire North

Prediction: LAB gain from SNP

MP at 2019:	Gavin Newlands (SNP)
County/Area:	Glasgow area (Scotland)
Electorate:	72,007
Turnout:	69.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	23,353	47.0%	36.0%
LAB	11,451	23.0%	37.3%
CON	11,217	22.6%	17.0%
LIB	3,661	7.4%	3.2%
Reform	0	0.0%	0.9%
Green	0	0.0%	1.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.6%
SNP Majority	11,902	24.0%	1.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

45%

LAB

54%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Paisley and Renfrewshire South

Prediction: SNP hold

MP at 2019:	Mhairi Black (SNP)
County/Area:	Glasgow area (Scotland)
Electorate:	64,385
Turnout:	66.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	21,637	50.2%	39.2%
LAB	10,958	25.4%	39.2%
CON	7,571	17.6%	12.3%
LIB	2,918	6.8%	3.0%
Reform	0	0.0%	0.9%
Green	0	0.0%	1.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.5%
SNP Majority	10,679	24.8%	0.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

49%

LAB

51%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Perth and North Perthshire

Prediction: SNP hold

MP at 2019:	Pete Wishart (SNP)
County/Area:	Tayside (Scotland)
Electorate:	72,600
Turnout:	74.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	27,362	50.6%	39.6%
CON	19,812	36.6%	29.8%
LIB	3,780	7.0%	3.1%
LAB	2,471	4.6%	20.4%
Reform	651	1.2%	0.9%
Green	0	0.0%	2.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	4.0%
SNP Majority	7,550	14.0%	9.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

71%

CON

25%

LIB

LAB

Reform

Green

OTH

Renfrewshire East

Prediction: SNP hold

MP at 2019:	Kirsten Oswald (SNP)
County/Area:	Glasgow area (Scotland)
Electorate:	72,232
Turnout:	76.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	24,877	44.9%	33.9%
CON	19,451	35.1%	28.5%
LAB	6,855	12.4%	27.4%
LIB	4,174	7.5%	3.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	0.9%
Green	0	0.0%	2.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.8%
SNP Majority	5,426	9.8%	5.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

52%

CON

25%

LAB

23%

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Ross Skye and Lochaber

Prediction: SNP hold

MP at 2019:	Ian Blackford (SNP)
County/Area:	Highland (Scotland)
Electorate:	54,230
Turnout:	73.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	19,263	48.3%	37.3%
LIB	9,820	24.6%	17.9%
CON	6,900	17.3%	13.4%
LAB	2,448	6.1%	22.2%
OTH	728	1.8%	5.9%
Reform	710	1.8%	1.1%
Green	0	0.0%	2.2%
SNP Majority	9,443	23.7%	15.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

80%

LIB

CON

LAB

14%

OTH

Reform

Green

Rutherglen and Hamilton West

Prediction: LAB gain from SNP

MP at 2019:	Margaret Ferrier (SNP)
County/Area:	Ayrshire and Lanark (Scotland)
Electorate:	80,918
Turnout:	66.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	23,775	44.2%	27.8%
LAB	18,545	34.5%	54.0%
CON	8,054	15.0%	8.9%
LIB	2,791	5.2%	2.1%
OTH	629	1.2%	4.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	1.5%
Green	0	0.0%	1.4%
SNP Majority	5,230	9.7%	26.2% Pred Maj

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Result shown is the original general election result, before Margaret Ferrier was removed by a recall petition in August 2023. Michael Shanks (Labour) won the seat in a by-election on 5 October 2023.

Chance of winning

SNP

LAB

95%

CON

LIB

OTH

Reform

Green

Stirling

Prediction: SNP hold

MP at 2019:	Alyn Smith (SNP)
County/Area:	Central (Scotland)
Electorate:	68,473
Turnout:	76.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
SNP	26,895	51.1%	40.1%
CON	17,641	33.5%	27.2%
LAB	4,275	8.1%	22.7%
LIB	2,867	5.4%	2.4%
Green	942	1.8%	2.9%
Reform	0	0.0%	1.0%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.7%
SNP Majority	9,254	17.6%	12.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

SNP

76%

CON

15%

LAB

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH