New Seat Details - Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
Plaid	14,351	25.7%
CON	13,792	24.7%
LAB	13,053	23.4%
LIB	12,650	22.7%
UKIP	872	1.6%
Green	594	1.1%
MIN	289	0.5%
OTH	162	0.3%
Plaid Majority	559	1.0%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire: Map

List of old seats forming part of Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire

Old seat: Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Carmarthen East and Dinefwr				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	Plaid Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Carmarthenshire	Abergwili	1,799	Carmarthen	399	285	25	32	0	604	0	0	1,345
Carmarthenshire	Ammanford	1,861	Carmarthen	283	662	42	39	0	543	0	0	1,569
Carmarthenshire	Betws	1,730	Carmarthen	318	558	25	31	0	323	0	0	1,255
Carmarthenshire	Cenarth	1,570	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	339	257	32	27	0	632	0	0	1,287
Carmarthenshire	Cilycwm	1,145	Carmarthen	333	215	17	22	0	277	0	0	864
Carmarthenshire	Cynwyl Gaeo	1,260	Carmarthen	286	166	14	18	0	435	0	0	919
Carmarthenshire	Garnant	1,486	Carmarthen	253	621	25	31	0	305	0	0	1,235
Carmarthenshire	Glanamman	1,720	Carmarthen	272	462	27	30	0	569	0	0	1,360
Carmarthenshire	Gorslas	3,384	Carmarthen	627	873	51	59	0	756	0	0	2,366
Carmarthenshire	Llanddarog	1,570	Carmarthen	362	238	22	26	0	512	0	0	1,160
Carmarthenshire	Llandeilo	2,234	Carmarthen	493	454	55	46	0	656	0	0	1,704
Carmarthenshire	Llandovery	1,980	Carmarthen	580	422	37	41	0	488	0	0	1,568
Carmarthenshire	Llandybie	3,107	Carmarthen	602	895	59	60	0	661	0	0	2,277
Carmarthenshire	Llanegwad	1,887	Carmarthen	403	272	24	30	0	676	0	0	1,405
Carmarthenshire	Llanfihangel Aberbythych	1,417	Carmarthen	288	208	20	23	0	522	0	0	1,061
Carmarthenshire	Llanfihangel-ar-Arth	2,098	Carmarthen	405	342	28	37	0	832	0	0	1,644
Carmarthenshire	Llangadog	1,544	Carmarthen	353	298	34	29	0	393	0	0	1,107
Carmarthenshire	Llangeler	2,546	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	510	435	32	45	0	945	0	0	1,967
Carmarthenshire	Llangunnor	2,049	Carmarthen	342	299	33	30	0	635	0	0	1,339
Carmarthenshire	Llangyndeyrn	2,550	Carmarthen	400	407	44	42	0	874	0	0	1,767
Carmarthenshire	Llanybydder	1,922	Carmarthen	446	441	34	42	0	656	0	0	1,619
Carmarthenshire	Manordeilo and Salem	1,709	Carmarthen	437	317	23	33	0	507	0	0	1,317
Carmarthenshire	Penygroes	2,143	Carmarthen	369	637	48	40	0	577	0	0	1,671
Carmarthenshire	Pontamman	2,047	Carmarthen	337	703	44	38	0	451	0	0	1,573
Carmarthenshire	Quarter Bach	2,108	Carmarthen	333	625	37	40	0	652	0	0	1,687
Carmarthenshire	Saron	3,028	Carmarthen	571	796	48	57	0	922	0	0	2,394
Carmarthenshire	St Ishmael	2,097	Carmarthen	438	333	40	38	0	722	0	0	1,571
	Total	53,991		10,779	12,221	920	986	0	16,125	0	0	41,031

The full details of these calculations are given on the Carmarthen East and Dinefwr seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Ceredigion

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Ceredigion, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Ceredigion				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	Plaid Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Ceredigion	Aberaeron	946	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	132	127	353	11	9	112	0	1	745
Ceredigion	Aberporth	1,614	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	308	265	292	23	16	359	0	10	1,273
Ceredigion	Aberteifi / Cardigan-Mwldan	1,222	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	160	190	266	16	10	322	0	1	965
Ceredigion	Aberteifi / Cardigan-Rhyd-y-Fuwch	766	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	78	137	257	10	7	113	0	1	603
Ceredigion	Aberteifi / Cardigan-Teifi	773	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	66	147	181	10	8	196	0	1	609
Ceredigion	Aberystwyth Bronglais	1,381	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	168	217	242	14	19	420	0	9	1,089
Ceredigion	Aberystwyth Canol / Central	1,577	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	148	281	514	15	24	254	0	9	1,245
Ceredigion	Aberystwyth Gogledd / North	1,827	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	190	317	478	20	28	402	0	6	1,441
Ceredigion	Aberystwyth Penparcau	2,074	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	191	385	434	25	23	573	0	6	1,637
Ceredigion	Aberystwyth Rheidol	1,729	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	203	318	445	21	27	335	0	14	1,363
Ceredigion	Beulah	1,094	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	168	142	171	14	9	357	0	2	863
Ceredigion	Borth	1,373	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	261	249	300	19	19	228	0	7	1,083
Ceredigion	Capel Dewi	882	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	137	130	145	12	8	261	0	3	696
Ceredigion	Ceulanamaesmawr	1,274	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	163	157	318	12	16	337	0	1	1,004
Ceredigion	Ciliau Aeron	1,314	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	199	165	327	14	11	318	0	1	1,035
Ceredigion	Faenor	1,687	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	199	226	562	20	20	299	0	3	1,329
Ceredigion	Lampeter	1,946	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	191	685	335	23	23	269	0	8	1,534
Ceredigion	Llanarth	1,074	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	161	142	273	12	8	250	0	1	847
Ceredigion	Llanbadarn Fawr - Padarn	684	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	77	105	121	7	9	219	0	0	538
Ceredigion	Llanbadarn Fawr - Sulien	1,583	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	172	253	278	17	21	500	0	8	1,249
Ceredigion	Llandyfriog	1,217	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	242	158	188	15	11	344	0	1	959
Ceredigion	Llandysilio-gogo	1,333	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	299	218	278	19	13	216	0	6	1,049
Ceredigion	Llandysul Town	943	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	138	143	150	12	8	289	0	3	743
Ceredigion	Llanfarian	1,024	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	151	129	221	11	8	287	0	0	807
Ceredigion	Llanfihangel Ystrad	1,388	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	187	190	317	16	12	370	0	3	1,095
Ceredigion	Llangeitho	998	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	165	144	316	12	9	135	0	6	787
Ceredigion	Llangybi	974	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	122	131	203	11	11	289	0	1	768
Ceredigion	Llanrhystyd	1,062	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	151	135	385	11	9	143	0	3	837
Ceredigion	Llansantffraed	1,583	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	305	261	375	23	19	258	0	7	1,248
Ceredigion	Llanwenog	1,230	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	194	180	202	15	11	364	0	4	970
Ceredigion	Lledrod	1,449	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	270	258	317	21	17	253	0	7	1,143
Ceredigion	Melindwr	1,343	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	170	182	302	14	14	376	0	1	1,059
Ceredigion	New Quay	707	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	232	100	120	8	6	88	0	2	556
Ceredigion	Pen-parc	1,527	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	261	221	278	20	15	403	0	5	1,203
Ceredigion	Penbryn	1,334	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	240	180	228	16	12	371	0	5	1,052
Ceredigion	Tirymynach	1,282	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	193	157	409	13	10	226	0	1	1,009
Ceredigion	Trefeurig	1,167	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	162	167	212	15	13	348	0	4	921
Ceredigion	Tregaron	807	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	107	121	135	10	7	255	0	1	636
Ceredigion	Troedyraur	873	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	139	140	155	12	9	232	0	3	690
Ceredigion	Ystwyth	1,372	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	205	167	431	14	12	252	0	1	1,082
	Total	50,433		7,305	8,020	11,514	603	541	11,623	0	156	39,762

The full details of these calculations are given on the Ceredigion seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Montgomeryshire

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Montgomeryshire, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Montgomeryshire				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	Plaid Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Powys	Banwy	746	Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire	286	84	129	0	10	36	0	0	545
Powys	Berriew	1,064	Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire	420	99	174	0	11	49	0	0	753
Powys	Blaen Hafren	1,782	Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery	848	136	220	0	18	66	0	0	1,288
Powys	Caersws	1,712	Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery	720	190	277	0	20	72	0	0	1,279
Powys	Churchstoke	1,214	Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery	373	97	349	0	12	42	0	0	873
Powys	Dolforwyn	1,587	Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery	636	145	227	0	15	59	0	0	1,082
Powys	Forden	1,083	Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery	509	89	150	0	10	34	0	0	792
Powys	Glantwymyn	1,558	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	577	169	268	0	19	82	0	0	1,115
Powys	Guilsfield	1,799	Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire	688	182	306	0	21	77	0	0	1,274
Powys	Kerry	1,563	Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery	676	140	224	0	15	69	0	0	1,124
Powys	Llanbrynmair	742	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	265	81	116	0	8	31	0	0	501
Powys	Llandinam	1,063	Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery	412	110	182	0	13	52	0	0	769
Powys	Llandrinio	1,656	Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire	658	173	274	0	16	65	0	0	1,186
Powys	Llandysilio	1,387	Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire	527	146	225	0	13	50	0	0	961
Powys	Llanfair Caereinion	1,227	Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire	462	139	312	0	14	60	0	0	987
Powys	Llanfihangel	872	Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire	337	78	132	0	8	31	0	0	586
Powys	Llanfyllin	1,147	Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire	500	122	155	0	13	49	0	0	839
Powys	Llanidloes	2,070	Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery	806	277	372	0	29	91	0	0	1,575
Powys	Llanrhaeadr-ym-Mochnant / Llansilin	1,733	Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire	786	130	210	0	16	77	0	0	1,219
Powys	Llansantffraid	1,511	Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire	677	124	198	0	14	44	0	0	1,057
Powys	Llanwddyn	818	Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire	301	86	130	0	9	42	0	0	568
Powys	Machynlleth	1,627	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	546	266	313	0	26	76	0	0	1,227
Powys	Meifod	1,040	Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire	396	101	161	0	11	50	0	0	719
Powys	Montgomery	1,059	Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery	408	111	179	0	13	42	0	0	753
Powys	Newtown Central	2,103	Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery	996	380	331	0	26	66	0	0	1,799
Powys	Newtown East	1,391	Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery	321	211	438	0	17	139	0	0	1,126
Powys	Newtown Llanllwchaiarn North	1,726	Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery	458	170	532	0	18	58	0	0	1,236
Powys	Newtown Llanllwchaiarn West	1,361	Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery	614	134	188	0	14	40	0	0	990
Powys	Newtown South	1,242	Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery	344	403	233	0	16	40	0	0	1,036
Powys	Rhiwcynon	1,674	Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery	658	171	274	0	17	76	0	0	1,196
Powys	Trewern	1,054	Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire	450	109	170	0	10	37	0	0	776
Powys	Welshpool Castle	954	Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire	389	210	201	0	14	45	0	0	859
Powys	Welshpool Gungrog	1,772	Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire	570	280	614	0	20	64	0	0	1,548
Powys	Welshpool Llanerchyddol	1,652	Clwyd South and North Montgomeryshire	457	201	526	0	17	49	0	0	1,250
	Total	46,989		18,071	5,544	8,790	0	523	1,960	0	0	34,888

The full details of these calculations are given on the Montgomeryshire seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Preseli Pembrokeshire

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Preseli Pembrokeshire, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Preseli Pembrokeshire				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	Plaid Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Pembrokeshire	Burton	1,401	Pembrokeshire Mid and South	503	401	16	23	0	38	32	1	1,014
Pembrokeshire	Camrose	1,992	Pembrokeshire Mid and South	682	515	27	29	0	70	51	1	1,375
Pembrokeshire	Cilgerran	1,396	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	512	425	26	24	0	88	42	1	1,118
Pembrokeshire	Clydau	1,105	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	355	273	13	15	0	125	10	0	791
Pembrokeshire	Crymych	1,918	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	602	467	26	29	0	213	43	1	1,381
Pembrokeshire	Dinas Cross	1,210	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	417	349	76	16	0	61	15	0	934
Pembrokeshire	Fishguard North East	1,399	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	470	419	27	24	0	42	41	1	1,024
Pembrokeshire	Fishguard North West	1,094	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	273	450	49	17	0	41	27	1	858
Pembrokeshire	Goodwick	1,335	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	395	485	72	18	0	115	20	0	1,105
Pembrokeshire	Haverfordwest: Castle	1,466	Pembrokeshire Mid and South	419	743	31	18	0	58	24	1	1,294
Pembrokeshire	Haverfordwest: Garth	1,539	Pembrokeshire Mid and South	570	770	39	30	0	42	41	1	1,493
Pembrokeshire	Haverfordwest: Portfield	1,642	Pembrokeshire Mid and South	600	551	45	31	0	59	40	1	1,327
Pembrokeshire	Haverfordwest: Prendergast	1,467	Pembrokeshire Mid and South	477	482	36	26	0	57	30	1	1,109
Pembrokeshire	Haverfordwest: Priory	1,731	Pembrokeshire Mid and South	603	577	45	32	0	58	39	1	1,355
Pembrokeshire	Johnston	1,867	Pembrokeshire Mid and South	630	588	33	31	0	56	42	1	1,381
Pembrokeshire	Letterston	1,706	Pembrokeshire Mid and South	720	429	21	22	0	48	35	1	1,276
Pembrokeshire	Llangwm	1,724	Pembrokeshire Mid and South	610	512	31	28	0	55	47	1	1,284
Pembrokeshire	Llanrhian	1,155	Pembrokeshire Mid and South	379	311	19	17	0	50	28	1	805
Pembrokeshire	Maenclochog	2,248	Pembrokeshire Mid and South	768	603	31	35	0	231	47	1	1,716
Pembrokeshire	Martletwy	423	Pembrokeshire Mid and South	173	96	5	5	0	16	9	0	304
Pembrokeshire	Merlin's Bridge	1,478	Pembrokeshire Mid and South	464	621	28	24	0	48	31	1	1,217
Pembrokeshire	Milford: Central	1,389	Pembrokeshire Mid and South	425	440	27	26	0	141	44	1	1,104
Pembrokeshire	Milford: East	1,436	Pembrokeshire Mid and South	377	703	19	22	0	39	23	1	1,184
Pembrokeshire	Milford: Hakin	1,672	Pembrokeshire Mid and South	503	571	34	32	0	52	43	1	1,236
Pembrokeshire	Milford: Hubberston	1,738	Pembrokeshire Mid and South	416	818	29	28	0	48	32	1	1,372
Pembrokeshire	Milford: North	1,854	Pembrokeshire Mid and South	797	573	28	29	0	50	42	1	1,520
Pembrokeshire	Milford: West	1,441	Pembrokeshire Mid and South	423	575	25	27	0	170	20	0	1,240
Pembrokeshire	Newport	812	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	264	224	43	12	0	68	22	1	634
Pembrokeshire	Neyland: East	1,697	Pembrokeshire Mid and South	392	717	23	18	0	32	12	0	1,194
Pembrokeshire	Neyland: West	1,511	Pembrokeshire Mid and South	426	670	21	21	0	37	35	1	1,211
Pembrokeshire	Rudbaxton	816	Pembrokeshire Mid and South	296	164	8	10	0	18	14	0	510
Pembrokeshire	Scleddau	1,076	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	405	259	16	15	0	96	23	0	814
Pembrokeshire	Solva	1,144	Pembrokeshire Mid and South	438	423	26	20	0	77	56	1	1,041
Pembrokeshire	St David's	1,413	Pembrokeshire Mid and South	450	405	37	23	0	72	28	1	1,016
Pembrokeshire	St Dogmaels	1,647	Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire	557	474	27	27	0	113	46	1	1,245
Pembrokeshire	St Ishmael's	1,049	Pembrokeshire Mid and South	402	286	13	16	0	34	25	1	777
Pembrokeshire	The Havens	1,118	Pembrokeshire Mid and South	405	323	21	17	0	45	31	1	843
Pembrokeshire	Wiston	1,494	Pembrokeshire Mid and South	705	301	12	12	0	48	19	0	1,097
	Total	54,603		18,303	17,993	1,105	849	0	2,711	1,209	29	42,199

The full details of these calculations are given on the Preseli Pembrokeshire seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	Plaid Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire
Carmarthenshire	Cenarth	1,754	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	339	257	32	27	0	632	0	0	1,287
Carmarthenshire	Llangeler	2,683	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	510	435	32	45	0	945	0	0	1,967
Ceredigion	Aberaeron	992	Ceredigion	132	127	353	11	9	112	0	1	745
Ceredigion	Aberporth	1,693	Ceredigion	308	265	292	23	16	359	0	10	1,273
Ceredigion	Aberteifi / Cardigan-Mwldan	1,282	Ceredigion	160	190	266	16	10	322	0	1	965
Ceredigion	Aberteifi / Cardigan-Rhyd-y-Fuwch	803	Ceredigion	78	137	257	10	7	113	0	1	603
Ceredigion	Aberteifi / Cardigan-Teifi	811	Ceredigion	66	147	181	10	8	196	0	1	609
Ceredigion	Aberystwyth Bronglais	1,448	Ceredigion	168	217	242	14	19	420	0	9	1,089
Ceredigion	Aberystwyth Canol / Central	1,654	Ceredigion	148	281	514	15	24	254	0	9	1,245
Ceredigion	Aberystwyth Gogledd / North	1,916	Ceredigion	190	317	478	20	28	402	0	6	1,441
Ceredigion	Aberystwyth Penparcau	2,175	Ceredigion	191	385	434	25	23	573	0	6	1,637
Ceredigion	Aberystwyth Rheidol	1,813	Ceredigion	203	318	445	21	27	335	0	14	1,363
Ceredigion	Beulah	1,147	Ceredigion	168	142	171	14	9	357	0	2	863
Ceredigion	Borth	1,440	Ceredigion	261	249	300	19	19	228	0	7	1,083
Ceredigion	Capel Dewi	925	Ceredigion	137	130	145	12	8	261	0	3	696
Ceredigion	Ceulanamaesmawr	1,336	Ceredigion	163	157	318	12	16	337	0	1	1,004
Ceredigion	Ciliau Aeron	1,378	Ceredigion	199	165	327	14	11	318	0	1	1,035
Ceredigion	Faenor	1,769	Ceredigion	199	226	562	20	20	299	0	3	1,329
Ceredigion	Lampeter	2,041	Ceredigion	191	685	335	23	23	269	0	8	1,534
Ceredigion	Llanarth	1,126	Ceredigion	161	142	273	12	8	250	0	1	847
Ceredigion	Llanbadarn Fawr - Padarn	717	Ceredigion	77	105	121	7	9	219	0	0	538
Ceredigion	Llanbadarn Fawr - Sulien	1,660	Ceredigion	172	253	278	17	21	500	0	8	1,249
Ceredigion	Llandyfriog	1,276	Ceredigion	242	158	188	15	11	344	0	1	959
Ceredigion	Llandysilio-gogo	1,398	Ceredigion	299	218	278	19	13	216	0	6	1,049
Ceredigion	Llandysul Town	989	Ceredigion	138	143	150	12	8	289	0	3	743
Ceredigion	Llanfarian	1,074	Ceredigion	151	129	221	11	8	287	0	0	807
Ceredigion	Llanfihangel Ystrad	1,456	Ceredigion	187	190	317	16	12	370	0	3	1,095
Ceredigion	Llangeitho	1,047	Ceredigion	165	144	316	12	9	135	0	6	787
Ceredigion	Llangybi	1,021	Ceredigion	122	131	203	11	11	289	0	1	768
Ceredigion	Llanrhystyd	1,114	Ceredigion	151	135	385	11	9	143	0	3	837
Ceredigion	Llansantffraed	1,660	Ceredigion	305	261	375	23	19	258	0	7	1,248
Ceredigion	Llanwenog	1,290	Ceredigion	194	180	202	15	11	364	0	4	970
Ceredigion	Lledrod	1,520	Ceredigion	270	258	317	21	17	253	0	7	1,143
Ceredigion	Melindwr	1,408	Ceredigion	170	182	302	14	14	376	0	1	1,059
Ceredigion	New Quay	741	Ceredigion	232	100	120	8	6	88	0	2	556
Ceredigion	Pen-parc	1,601	Ceredigion	261	221	278	20	15	403	0	5	1,203
Ceredigion	Penbryn	1,399	Ceredigion	240	180	228	16	12	371	0	5	1,052
Ceredigion	Tirymynach	1,344	Ceredigion	193	157	409	13	10	226	0	1	1,009
Ceredigion	Trefeurig	1,224	Ceredigion	162	167	212	15	13	348	0	4	921
Ceredigion	Tregaron	846	Ceredigion	107	121	135	10	7	255	0	1	636
Ceredigion	Troedyraur	916	Ceredigion	139	140	155	12	9	232	0	3	690
Ceredigion	Ystwyth	1,439	Ceredigion	205	167	431	14	12	252	0	1	1,082
Pembrokeshire	Cilgerran	1,551	Preseli Pembrokeshire	512	425	26	24	0	88	42	1	1,118
Pembrokeshire	Clydau	1,098	Preseli Pembrokeshire	355	273	13	15	0	125	10	0	791
Pembrokeshire	Crymych	1,916	Preseli Pembrokeshire	602	467	26	29	0	213	43	1	1,381
Pembrokeshire	Dinas Cross	1,295	Preseli Pembrokeshire	417	349	76	16	0	61	15	0	934
Pembrokeshire	Fishguard North East	1,420	Preseli Pembrokeshire	470	419	27	24	0	42	41	1	1,024
Pembrokeshire	Fishguard North West	1,189	Preseli Pembrokeshire	273	450	49	17	0	41	27	1	858
Pembrokeshire	Goodwick	1,535	Preseli Pembrokeshire	395	485	72	18	0	115	20	0	1,105
Pembrokeshire	Newport	878	Preseli Pembrokeshire	264	224	43	12	0	68	22	1	634
Pembrokeshire	Scleddau	1,130	Preseli Pembrokeshire	405	259	16	15	0	96	23	0	814
Pembrokeshire	St Dogmaels	1,727	Preseli Pembrokeshire	557	474	27	27	0	113	46	1	1,245
Powys	Glantwymyn	1,622	Montgomeryshire	577	169	268	0	19	82	0	0	1,115
Powys	Llanbrynmair	730	Montgomeryshire	265	81	116	0	8	31	0	0	501
Powys	Machynlleth	1,784	Montgomeryshire	546	266	313	0	26	76	0	0	1,227
	Total	75,201		13,792	13,053	12,650	872	594	14,351	289	162	55,763

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Ben Lake (Plaid)
County/Area:	Dyfed (Wales)
Electorate:	75,201
Turnout:	74.2%

Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire: Overview

Introduction