Linlithgow: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Linlithgow: Overview

 Projection: SNP seat 

Implied MP at 2019: Martyn Day  (SNP)
County/Area: Edinburgh area (Scotland)
Electorate: 80,524
Turnout: 66.4%

 Implied 2019 VotesImplied 2019 Share
SNP23,76244.5%
CON13,42325.1%
LAB10,28319.2%
LIB3,7056.9%
Green1,2002.2%
UKIP7261.4%
OTH3400.6%
SNP Majority10,33919.3%

See overview of other seats in Scotland.

Linlithgow : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the new Linlithgow constituency, the 'Scotland' area and nation.

The political measures include the three axes: Economic (Left/Right), National (Global/National) and Social (Liberal/Conservative). (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

Indicator Seat ScotlandAll GB
Party Winner 2019SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2017SNPSNPCON
Party Winner 2015SNPSNPCON
Economic Position26° Left23° Left
National Position12° Glo15° Glo
Social Position11° Lib13° Lib
TribeTradition
EU Leave %42%38%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health53%52%48%
UK Born95%93%88%
Good Education31%36%39%
Good Job47%49%51%
High SEC53%55%51%
Average Age48.348.748.5
ABC1 Class48%50%54%

Linlithgow ranks #483 for "Leave", #578 for "Right", #498 for "National" and #534 for "Social" out of 600 new seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery GlobalGlobalCentristNationalVery Nat
Social PositionVery LibLiberalModerateConservativeVery Cons
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° Global and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
Social PositionSocial position between 100° Liberal and 100° Conservative, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
TribeTribe group dominant in the area. Can be: Strong Left, Traditionalists, Progressives, Centrists, Somewheres, Kind Young Capitalists, or Strong Right. See details.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Linlithgow: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2019 had the new boundaries for Linlithgow been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2019. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

List of old seats forming part of Linlithgow

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Linlithgow and East Falkirk

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Linlithgow and East Falkirk, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Linlithgow and East FalkirkTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
FalkirkBo'ness and Blackness12,080Falkirk South1,7041,5526131761663,7260828,019
FalkirkGrangemouth13,485Falkirk South1,7932,1587051961853,8220928,951
FalkirkFalkirk North0 000000000
FalkirkLower Braes1,640Falkirk South3871108924224450111,088
FalkirkUpper Braes9,299Falkirk South1,4961,1614501351272,7400636,172
West LothianLinlithgow11,475Linlithgow2,7294876371571483,3840747,616
West LothianBroxburn, Uphall and Winchburgh3Linlithgow010001002
West LothianWhitburn and Blackburn11,032Linlithgow1,5201,8075241611513,0840757,322
West LothianBathgate16,036Linlithgow2,4262,0697572332204,829010910,643
West LothianArmadale and Blackridge11,995Linlithgow2,2301,1736181751643,5200827,962
 Total87,045 14,28510,5184,3931,2571,18325,551058857,775

The full details of these calculations are given on the Linlithgow and East Falkirk seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Livingston

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Livingston, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: LivingstonTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
New SeatCON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
West LothianLinlithgow727Linlithgow181383101122200483
West LothianBroxburn, Uphall and Winchburgh14,495Linlithgow2,2152,05059702514,504009,617
West LothianLivingston North17,557Livingston and Edinburgh Pentland2,6691,87481503045,9880011,650
West LothianLivingston South17,799Livingston and Edinburgh Pentland2,6292,72875203085,3920011,809
West LothianEast Livingston and East Calder15,151Livingston and Edinburgh Pentland2,1062,23965702624,7880010,052
West LothianFauldhouse and the Breich Valley12,187Linlithgow;
Livingston and Edinburgh Pentland
1,7702,23344002113,433008,087
West LothianWhitburn and Blackburn4,343Linlithgow6097501650751,282002,881
West LothianBathgate27Linlithgow4410090018
 Total82,286 12,18311,9163,45801,42225,6180054,597

The full details of these calculations are given on the Livingston seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Linlithgow

The new seat of Linlithgow is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Linlithgow
DistrictWardElectorate
2019
Old Seat CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SNP
Votes
MIN
Votes
OTH
Votes
Total
Votes
West LothianArmadale and Blackridge11,995Linlithgow and East Falkirk2,2301,1736181751643,5200827,962
West LothianBathgate16,036Linlithgow and East Falkirk2,4262,0697572332204,829010910,643
West LothianBathgate27Livingston4410090018
West LothianBroxburn, Uphall and Winchburgh14,495Livingston2,2152,05059702514,504009,617
West LothianBroxburn, Uphall and Winchburgh3Linlithgow and East Falkirk010001002
West LothianFauldhouse and the Breich Valley10,391Livingston1,5091,90437501802,927006,895
West LothianLinlithgow11,475Linlithgow and East Falkirk2,7294876371571483,3840747,616
West LothianLinlithgow727Livingston181383101122200483
West LothianWhitburn and Blackburn11,032Linlithgow and East Falkirk1,5201,8075241611513,0840757,322
West LothianWhitburn and Blackburn4,343Livingston6097501650751,282002,881
 Total80,524 13,42310,2833,7057261,20023,762034053,439

And these are the implied results for 2019 for the new seat of Linlithgow. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.


© 2020 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (07-Jan-2020 16:36, Py3L, sc650)