User-defined Prediction

The predicted results in the country and in Scotland, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National Prediction: Conservative majority 72

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 44.7%376 44.7%4661-15361
LAB 33.0%197 33.0%3048-18179
LIB 11.8%8 11.8%290+2937
Reform 2.1%0 2.1%00+00
Green 2.8%1 2.8%10+12
SNP 4.0%48 4.3%53+250
PlaidC 0.5%2 0.6%00+02
Other 1.1%0 0.7%10+11
N.Ire 18 00+018

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Table of all seat results in Scotland

Scotland Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 25.1%6 25.1%05-51
LAB 18.6%1 18.6%00+01
LIB 9.5%2 9.5%30+35
Reform 0.5%0 0.5%00+00
Green 1.0%0 1.0%00+00
SNP 45.0%48 45.0%53+250
Other 0.3%0 0.3%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Edinburgh South' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Fife North East', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Fife North East (prediction: LIB), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Edinburgh South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
Reform
Seats
SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
SNP
%
OTH
%
2019
Win
Pred
Win
1755Edinburgh SouthIan Murray71,68874.722.339.08.30.21.428.50.2LABLAB
1772RutherglenMargaret Ferrier70,29166.819.535.64.50.40.039.90.2SNPSNP
1781Glasgow North EastAnne McLaughlin76,43556.218.133.94.00.40.842.60.2SNPSNP
1781Coatbridge and BellshillSteven Bonnar71,59465.918.732.83.70.40.943.30.2SNPSNP
1781Glasgow NorthPatrick Grady75,50860.717.831.05.40.31.344.10.2SNPSNP
1781Airdrie and ShottsNeil Gray69,84362.421.129.83.10.50.045.30.2SNPSNP
1781Glasgow WestCarol Monaghan72,83662.819.529.55.50.21.743.40.2SNPSNP
1781Cowdenbeath and KirkcaldyNeale Hanvey70,19165.224.628.26.10.51.339.10.3SNPSNP
1781MidlothianOwen Thompson70,54468.422.427.86.30.40.042.80.3SNPSNP
1781Glasgow SouthStewart McDonald72,76365.919.327.65.60.31.245.80.2SNPSNP
1781Dunbartonshire WestMartin Docherty69,01667.720.227.54.40.41.046.20.3SNPSNP
1781Hamilton and Clyde ValleyAngela Crawley74,12367.924.326.65.20.50.043.20.3SNPSNP
1781Glenrothes and Mid FifePeter Grant68,70363.519.826.35.10.50.048.30.0SNPSNP
1781Inverclyde and Renfrewshire WestRonnie Cowan69,79366.220.725.86.50.30.945.60.2SNPSNP
1781Edinburgh East and MusselburghTommy Sheppard75,15269.320.125.46.70.31.445.90.2SNPSNP
1781Glasgow EastDavid Linden70,65357.723.325.94.10.91.843.80.2SNPSNP
1781Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthMhairi Black68,82867.220.824.95.70.40.847.20.2SNPSNP
1781Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthGavin Newlands69,79166.921.924.66.30.40.846.00.0SNPSNP
1781Dundee CentralChris Law74,80165.317.623.85.40.40.052.40.3SNPSNP
1781Renfrewshire EastKirsten Oswald72,23276.626.924.15.50.70.741.80.3SNPSNP
1781Bathgate and LinlithgowMartyn Day70,46766.424.023.55.90.41.244.70.3SNPSNP
1781East Kilbride and StrathavenLisa Cameron74,43569.323.823.06.00.41.145.50.3SNPSNP
1781Dunfermline and DollarDouglas Chapman70,06069.923.422.87.20.41.144.90.3SNPSNP
1781Glasgow South WestChris Stephens70,82157.922.623.05.70.60.946.90.2SNPSNP
1781Lothian EastKenny MacAskill70,35471.727.922.57.70.41.140.10.3SNPSNP
1781Cumbernauld and KirkintillochStuart McDonald69,90468.620.821.95.10.31.450.40.0SNPSNP
1781LivingstonHannah Bardell74,22466.323.522.05.80.51.146.90.3SNPSNP
1781Stirling and StrathallanAlyn Smith75,29676.527.121.55.60.30.944.60.0SNPSNP
1781Kilmarnock and LoudounAlan Brown74,51763.924.220.25.10.50.849.00.3SNPSNP
1781Edinburgh South WestJoanna Cherry73,51670.924.718.28.40.31.246.90.3SNPSNP
1781Ayrshire CentralPhilippa Whitford69,74266.729.917.25.20.60.846.00.3SNPSNP
1781Ayr, Carrick and CumnockAllan Dorans71,97164.731.916.75.10.70.944.40.3SNPSNP
1781Motherwell, Wishaw and CarlukeMarion Fellows71,44465.423.316.64.70.70.853.50.3SNPSNP
1781Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)Angus MacNeil21,10668.625.416.24.70.50.046.46.8SNPSNP
1781Edinburgh North and LeithDeidre Brock78,17873.122.514.79.50.53.848.80.2SNPSNP
1781Alloa and GrangemouthJohn Nicolson70,83469.825.414.75.40.51.052.70.3SNPSNP
1781Ayrshire North and ArranPatricia Gibson73,53465.527.914.15.00.51.151.10.3SNPSNP
1781Aberdeen NorthKirsty Blackman76,51563.525.213.97.10.51.052.00.3SNPSNP
1790Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleDavid Mundell70,25571.741.112.96.30.31.038.00.3CONCON
1790FalkirkJohnny McNally73,90066.225.313.06.40.51.253.30.3SNPSNP
1790Aberdeen SouthStephen Flynn76,04767.928.811.89.10.41.048.70.3SNPSNP
1790Aberdeenshire West and KincardineAndrew Bowie72,64073.435.711.010.40.50.841.20.3CONSNP
1790Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkJohn Lamont74,51871.338.711.18.20.60.940.20.3CONSNP
1790Arbroath and Broughty FerryStewart Hosie75,10668.126.810.66.70.50.055.10.3SNPSNP
1790Moray West, Nairn and StrathspeyUnknown (changed seat)75,42069.233.910.66.20.71.047.30.3SNPSNP
1790Aberdeenshire North and Moray EastDavid Duguid71,23664.835.410.35.50.80.048.10.0CONSNP
1790Perth and Kinross-shirePete Wishart75,33974.031.39.67.10.60.051.10.3SNPSNP
1790Argyll, Bute and South LochaberBrendan O'Hara70,73772.328.89.611.90.60.048.90.3SNPSNP
1790Gordon and BuchanUnknown (changed seat)69,00268.934.79.29.70.60.045.80.0CONSNP
1790Angus and Perthshire GlensDave Doogan75,15170.132.48.15.50.70.053.00.3SNPSNP
1790Dumfries and GallowayAlister Jack76,17269.138.89.66.72.30.941.40.3CONSNP
1790Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shireDrew Hendry77,42071.326.06.516.00.41.149.70.3SNPSNP
1790Orkney and ShetlandAlistair Carmichael34,21067.718.44.840.60.80.834.60.0LIBLIB
1790Edinburgh WestChristine Jardine75,66675.021.14.538.50.51.134.00.2LIBLIB
1790Dunbartonshire MidAmy Callaghan73,38979.118.73.938.90.30.837.10.3SNPLIB
1790Caithness, Sutherland and Easter RossUnknown (changed seat)74,89669.318.41.341.40.40.837.50.3SNPLIB
1790Fife North EastUnknown (changed seat)70,25573.717.30.441.50.31.239.30.0SNPLIB

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.


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