Election Prediction

The predicted results in the country and in Scotland, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National Prediction: Conservative majority 72

Table of all seat results in Scotland

Scotland Prediction

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Edinburgh South' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Dumfries and Galloway', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Dunbartonshire Mid (prediction: LIB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Renfrewshire East (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	44.7%	376	44.7%	46	61	-15	361
LAB	33.0%	197	33.0%	30	48	-18	179
LIB	11.8%	8	11.8%	29	0	+29	37
Reform	2.1%	0	2.1%	0	0	+0	0
Green	2.8%	1	2.8%	1	0	+1	2
SNP	4.0%	48	4.3%	5	3	+2	50
PlaidC	0.5%	2	0.6%	0	0	+0	2
Other	1.1%	0	0.7%	1	0	+1	1
N.Ire		18		0	0	+0	18

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	25.1%	6	25.1%	0	5	-5	1
LAB	18.6%	1	18.6%	0	0	+0	1
LIB	9.5%	2	9.5%	3	0	+3	5
Reform	0.5%	0	0.5%	0	0	+0	0
Green	1.0%	0	1.0%	0	0	+0	0
SNP	45.0%	48	45.0%	5	3	+2	50
Other	0.3%	0	0.3%	0	0	+0	0

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2019	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	SNP %	OTH %	2019 Win	Pred Win
54	487	Edinburgh South	Ian Murray	71,688	74.7	22.3	39.0	8.3	0.2	1.4	28.5	0.2	LAB	LAB
55	485	Rutherglen	Margaret Ferrier	70,291	66.8	19.5	35.6	4.5	0.4	0.0	39.9	0.2	SNP	SNP
55	485	Glasgow North East	Anne McLaughlin	76,435	56.2	18.1	33.9	4.0	0.4	0.8	42.6	0.2	SNP	SNP
61	479	Coatbridge and Bellshill	Steven Bonnar	71,594	65.9	18.7	32.8	3.7	0.4	0.9	43.3	0.2	SNP	SNP
69	471	Glasgow North	Patrick Grady	75,508	60.7	17.8	31.0	5.4	0.3	1.3	44.1	0.2	SNP	SNP
90	450	Glasgow West	Carol Monaghan	72,836	62.8	19.5	29.5	5.5	0.2	1.7	43.4	0.2	SNP	SNP
96	444	Airdrie and Shotts	Neil Gray	69,843	62.4	21.1	29.8	3.1	0.5	0.0	45.3	0.2	SNP	SNP
97	443	Glasgow South	Stewart McDonald	72,763	65.9	19.3	27.6	5.6	0.3	1.2	45.8	0.2	SNP	SNP
104	436	Dunbartonshire West	Martin Docherty	69,016	67.7	20.2	27.5	4.4	0.4	1.0	46.2	0.3	SNP	SNP
111	429	Glenrothes and Mid Fife	Peter Grant	68,703	63.5	19.8	26.3	5.1	0.5	0.0	48.3	0.0	SNP	SNP
113	427	Dundee Central	Chris Law	74,801	65.3	17.6	23.8	5.4	0.4	0.0	52.4	0.3	SNP	SNP
123	417	Midlothian	Owen Thompson	70,544	68.4	22.4	27.8	6.3	0.4	0.0	42.8	0.3	SNP	SNP
123	417	Edinburgh East and Musselburgh	Tommy Sheppard	75,152	69.3	20.1	25.4	6.7	0.3	1.4	45.9	0.2	SNP	SNP
124	416	Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West	Ronnie Cowan	69,793	66.2	20.7	25.8	6.5	0.3	0.9	45.6	0.2	SNP	SNP
135	405	Paisley and Renfrewshire South	Mhairi Black	68,828	67.2	20.8	24.9	5.7	0.4	0.8	47.2	0.2	SNP	SNP
140	400	Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy	Neale Hanvey	70,191	65.2	24.6	28.2	6.1	0.5	1.3	39.1	0.3	SNP	SNP
151	389	Paisley and Renfrewshire North	Gavin Newlands	69,791	66.9	21.9	24.6	6.3	0.4	0.8	46.0	0.0	SNP	SNP
153	387	Glasgow East	David Linden	70,653	57.7	23.3	25.9	4.1	0.9	1.8	43.8	0.2	SNP	SNP
160	380	Hamilton and Clyde Valley	Angela Crawley	74,123	67.9	24.3	26.6	5.2	0.5	0.0	43.2	0.3	SNP	SNP
169	371	Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch	Stuart McDonald	69,904	68.6	20.8	21.9	5.1	0.3	1.4	50.4	0.0	SNP	SNP
176	364	Glasgow South West	Chris Stephens	70,821	57.9	22.6	23.0	5.7	0.6	0.9	46.9	0.2	SNP	SNP
186	354	Bathgate and Linlithgow	Martyn Day	70,467	66.4	24.0	23.5	5.9	0.4	1.2	44.7	0.3	SNP	SNP
186	354	Dunfermline and Dollar	Douglas Chapman	70,060	69.9	23.4	22.8	7.2	0.4	1.1	44.9	0.3	SNP	SNP
187	353	East Kilbride and Strathaven	Lisa Cameron	74,435	69.3	23.8	23.0	6.0	0.4	1.1	45.5	0.3	SNP	SNP
196	344	Livingston	Hannah Bardell	74,224	66.3	23.5	22.0	5.8	0.5	1.1	46.9	0.3	SNP	SNP
210	330	Renfrewshire East	Kirsten Oswald	72,232	76.6	26.9	24.1	5.5	0.7	0.7	41.8	0.3	SNP	SNP
226	314	Kilmarnock and Loudoun	Alan Brown	74,517	63.9	24.2	20.2	5.1	0.5	0.8	49.0	0.3	SNP	SNP
241	299	Lothian East	Kenny MacAskill	70,354	71.7	27.9	22.5	7.7	0.4	1.1	40.1	0.3	SNP	SNP
241	299	Stirling and Strathallan	Alyn Smith	75,296	76.5	27.1	21.5	5.6	0.3	0.9	44.6	0.0	SNP	SNP
251	289	Edinburgh South West	Joanna Cherry	73,516	70.9	24.7	18.2	8.4	0.3	1.2	46.9	0.3	SNP	SNP
252	288	Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke	Marion Fellows	71,444	65.4	23.3	16.6	4.7	0.7	0.8	53.5	0.3	SNP	SNP
263	277	Edinburgh North and Leith	Deidre Brock	78,178	73.1	22.5	14.7	9.5	0.5	3.8	48.8	0.2	SNP	SNP
274	266	Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)	Angus MacNeil	21,106	68.6	25.4	16.2	4.7	0.5	0.0	46.4	6.8	SNP	SNP
289	251	Alloa and Grangemouth	John Nicolson	70,834	69.8	25.4	14.7	5.4	0.5	1.0	52.7	0.3	SNP	SNP
291	249	Aberdeen North	Kirsty Blackman	76,515	63.5	25.2	13.9	7.1	0.5	1.0	52.0	0.3	SNP	SNP
301	239	Falkirk	Johnny McNally	73,900	66.2	25.3	13.0	6.4	0.5	1.2	53.3	0.3	SNP	SNP
306	234	Ayrshire Central	Philippa Whitford	69,742	66.7	29.9	17.2	5.2	0.6	0.8	46.0	0.3	SNP	SNP
312	228	Orkney and Shetland	Alistair Carmichael	34,210	67.7	18.4	4.8	40.6	0.8	0.8	34.6	0.0	LIB	LIB
316	224	Ayrshire North and Arran	Patricia Gibson	73,534	65.5	27.9	14.1	5.0	0.5	1.1	51.1	0.3	SNP	SNP
326	214	Dunbartonshire Mid	Amy Callaghan	73,389	79.1	18.7	3.9	38.9	0.3	0.8	37.1	0.3	SNP	LIB
328	212	Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock	Allan Dorans	71,971	64.7	31.9	16.7	5.1	0.7	0.9	44.4	0.3	SNP	SNP
338	202	Arbroath and Broughty Ferry	Stewart Hosie	75,106	68.1	26.8	10.6	6.7	0.5	0.0	55.1	0.3	SNP	SNP
338	202	Edinburgh West	Christine Jardine	75,666	75.0	21.1	4.5	38.5	0.5	1.1	34.0	0.2	LIB	LIB
341	199	Fife North East	Unknown (changed seat)	70,255	73.7	17.3	0.4	41.5	0.3	1.2	39.3	0.0	SNP	LIB
342	198	Aberdeen South	Stephen Flynn	76,047	67.9	28.8	11.8	9.1	0.4	1.0	48.7	0.3	SNP	SNP
342	198	Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross	Unknown (changed seat)	74,896	69.3	18.4	1.3	41.4	0.4	0.8	37.5	0.3	SNP	LIB
356	184	Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber	Brendan O'Hara	70,737	72.3	28.8	9.6	11.9	0.6	0.0	48.9	0.3	SNP	SNP
358	182	Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire	Drew Hendry	77,420	71.3	26.0	6.5	16.0	0.4	1.1	49.7	0.3	SNP	SNP
371	169	Perth and Kinross-shire	Pete Wishart	75,339	74.0	31.3	9.6	7.1	0.6	0.0	51.1	0.3	SNP	SNP
376	164	Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey	Unknown (changed seat)	75,420	69.2	33.9	10.6	6.2	0.7	1.0	47.3	0.3	SNP	SNP
382	158	Angus and Perthshire Glens	Dave Doogan	75,151	70.1	32.4	8.1	5.5	0.7	0.0	53.0	0.3	SNP	SNP
385	155	Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine	Andrew Bowie	72,640	73.4	35.7	11.0	10.4	0.5	0.8	41.2	0.3	CON	SNP
388	152	Aberdeenshire North and Moray East	David Duguid	71,236	64.8	35.4	10.3	5.5	0.8	0.0	48.1	0.0	CON	SNP
391	149	Gordon and Buchan	Unknown (changed seat)	69,002	68.9	34.7	9.2	9.7	0.6	0.0	45.8	0.0	CON	SNP
408	132	Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk	John Lamont	74,518	71.3	38.7	11.1	8.2	0.6	0.9	40.2	0.3	CON	SNP
412	129	Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale	David Mundell	70,255	71.7	41.1	12.9	6.3	0.3	1.0	38.0	0.3	CON	CON
417	123	Dumfries and Galloway	Alister Jack	76,172	69.1	38.8	9.6	6.7	2.3	0.9	41.4	0.3	CON	SNP

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.

User-defined Prediction

National Prediction: Conservative majority 72

Table of all seat results in Scotland

Scotland Prediction

List of Scotland seats with predictions