The predicted results in the country and in Scotland, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.
| Party | 2019 Votes | 2019 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 44.7% | 376 | 44.7% | 31 | 19 | +12 | 388 |
| LAB | 33.0% | 197 | 33.0% | 12 | 33 | -21 | 176 |
| LIB | 11.8% | 8 | 11.8% | 3 | 0 | +3 | 11 |
| Reform | 2.1% | 0 | 2.1% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Green | 2.8% | 1 | 2.8% | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 |
| SNP | 4.0% | 48 | 4.3% | 3 | 0 | +3 | 51 |
| PlaidC | 0.5% | 2 | 0.6% | 2 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| Other | 1.1% | 0 | 0.7% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| N.Ire | 18 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 18 |
This prediction is based on the proposed new 2023 constituency boundaries (650 seats).
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| Party | 2019 Votes | 2019 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 25.1% | 6 | 25.1% | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| LAB | 18.6% | 1 | 18.6% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| LIB | 9.5% | 2 | 9.5% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 2 |
| Reform | 0.5% | 0 | 0.5% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Green | 1.0% | 0 | 1.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| SNP | 45.0% | 48 | 45.0% | 3 | 0 | +3 | 51 |
| Other | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | CON Seats | Seat | MP at 2019 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | SNP % | OTH % | 2019 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 521 | Edinburgh South | Ian Murray | 71,688 | 74.7 | 21.1 | 40.8 | 8.0 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 28.0 | 0.3 | LAB | LAB |
| 49 | 515 | Glasgow North East | Anne McLaughlin | 76,435 | 56.2 | 14.3 | 32.7 | 4.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 47.3 | 0.2 | SNP | SNP |
| 52 | 512 | Rutherglen | Margaret Ferrier | 70,291 | 66.8 | 18.2 | 35.1 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 39.2 | 0.2 | SNP | SNP |
| 57 | 507 | Coatbridge and Bellshill | Steven Bonnar | 71,594 | 65.9 | 15.5 | 31.3 | 4.1 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 47.5 | 0.2 | SNP | SNP |
| 59 | 505 | Glasgow North | Patrick Grady | 75,508 | 60.7 | 14.4 | 29.2 | 5.8 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 48.6 | 0.2 | SNP | SNP |
| 59 | 505 | Glasgow South West | Chris Stephens | 70,821 | 57.9 | 15.5 | 30.0 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 47.9 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 64 | 500 | Glasgow East | David Linden | 70,653 | 57.7 | 15.7 | 29.2 | 4.8 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 48.7 | 0.2 | SNP | SNP |
| 91 | 473 | Glasgow South | Stewart McDonald | 72,763 | 65.9 | 16.7 | 26.4 | 6.2 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 48.7 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 99 | 465 | Glasgow West | Carol Monaghan | 72,836 | 62.8 | 17.5 | 25.3 | 7.2 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 48.3 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 102 | 462 | Dunbartonshire West | Martin Docherty | 69,016 | 67.7 | 17.8 | 25.2 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 50.1 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 102 | 462 | Dundee Central | Chris Law | 74,801 | 65.3 | 15.0 | 22.4 | 6.1 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 55.0 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 104 | 460 | Glenrothes and Mid Fife | Peter Grant | 68,703 | 63.5 | 18.2 | 25.3 | 5.9 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 49.0 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 110 | 454 | Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch | Stuart McDonald | 69,904 | 68.6 | 17.2 | 23.7 | 5.9 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 51.7 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 113 | 451 | Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West | Ronnie Cowan | 69,793 | 66.2 | 19.1 | 25.5 | 6.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 47.4 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 116 | 448 | Edinburgh East and Musselburgh | Tommy Sheppard | 75,152 | 69.3 | 18.1 | 24.3 | 6.9 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 48.5 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 117 | 447 | Airdrie and Shotts | Neil Gray | 69,843 | 62.4 | 20.7 | 26.6 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 48.2 | 0.2 | SNP | SNP |
| 132 | 432 | Midlothian | Owen Thompson | 70,544 | 68.4 | 22.6 | 27.4 | 6.9 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 41.5 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 135 | 429 | Paisley and Renfrewshire South | Mhairi Black | 68,828 | 67.2 | 19.2 | 23.3 | 6.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 49.5 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 135 | 429 | Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy | Neale Hanvey | 70,191 | 65.2 | 24.7 | 28.7 | 6.9 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 37.3 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 138 | 426 | Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke | Marion Fellows | 71,444 | 65.4 | 22.2 | 25.9 | 4.9 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 45.5 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 140 | 424 | Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) | Angus MacNeil | 21,106 | 68.6 | 22.7 | 25.9 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 44.9 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 147 | 417 | Paisley and Renfrewshire North | Gavin Newlands | 69,791 | 66.9 | 20.7 | 23.3 | 7.0 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 47.5 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 174 | 390 | Edinburgh North and Leith | Deidre Brock | 78,178 | 73.1 | 20.6 | 21.1 | 11.6 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 44.4 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 174 | 390 | Lothian East | Kenny MacAskill | 70,354 | 71.7 | 27.8 | 28.1 | 6.8 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 35.6 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 182 | 382 | Hamilton and Clyde Valley | Angela Crawley | 74,123 | 67.9 | 25.4 | 24.7 | 5.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 42.9 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 187 | 377 | Dunfermline and Dollar | Douglas Chapman | 70,060 | 69.9 | 23.2 | 22.0 | 7.8 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 44.9 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 201 | 363 | East Kilbride and Strathaven | Lisa Cameron | 74,435 | 69.3 | 23.3 | 20.7 | 6.9 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 47.1 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 204 | 360 | Livingston | Hannah Bardell | 74,224 | 66.3 | 23.5 | 20.6 | 6.5 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 47.3 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 213 | 351 | Orkney and Shetland | Alistair Carmichael | 34,210 | 67.7 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 43.8 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 33.4 | 0.3 | LIB | LIB |
| 239 | 325 | Kilmarnock and Loudoun | Alan Brown | 74,517 | 63.9 | 24.2 | 18.2 | 5.5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 50.6 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 246 | 318 | Bathgate and Linlithgow | Martyn Day | 70,467 | 66.4 | 26.3 | 19.4 | 7.5 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 44.7 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 248 | 316 | Mid Dunbartonshire | Amy Callaghan | 73,389 | 79.1 | 17.0 | 9.9 | 33.6 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 37.7 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 256 | 308 | Fife North East | Unknown (changed seat) | 70,255 | 73.7 | 14.3 | 6.3 | 38.0 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 39.9 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 272 | 292 | Edinburgh West | Christine Jardine | 75,666 | 75.0 | 19.0 | 9.5 | 36.7 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 32.9 | 0.3 | LIB | LIB |
| 277 | 287 | Edinburgh South West | Joanna Cherry | 73,516 | 70.9 | 25.6 | 15.4 | 8.9 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 48.0 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 288 | 276 | Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross | Unknown (changed seat) | 74,896 | 69.3 | 19.2 | 8.1 | 31.3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 39.7 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 296 | 268 | Alloa and Grangemouth | John Nicolson | 70,834 | 69.8 | 26.5 | 14.5 | 5.8 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 51.3 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 296 | 268 | Aberdeen North | Kirsty Blackman | 76,515 | 63.5 | 25.4 | 13.4 | 8.0 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 51.3 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 302 | 262 | Falkirk | Johnny McNally | 73,900 | 66.2 | 26.1 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 51.5 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 304 | 260 | Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire | Drew Hendry | 77,420 | 71.3 | 23.8 | 10.4 | 14.7 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 49.0 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 312 | 252 | Ayrshire North and Arran | Patricia Gibson | 73,534 | 65.5 | 29.8 | 14.5 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 48.6 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 322 | 242 | Ayrshire Central | Philippa Whitford | 69,742 | 66.7 | 32.1 | 15.2 | 5.3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 45.8 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 323 | 241 | Arbroath and Broughty Ferry | Stewart Hosie | 75,106 | 68.1 | 28.8 | 11.4 | 7.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 50.8 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 331 | 233 | Renfrewshire East | Kirsten Oswald | 72,232 | 76.6 | 32.4 | 14.1 | 7.2 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 44.6 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 342 | 222 | Aberdeen South | Stephen Flynn | 76,047 | 67.9 | 31.5 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 45.7 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 344 | 220 | Ayr Carrick and Cumnock | Allan Dorans | 71,971 | 64.7 | 35.1 | 14.9 | 5.1 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 43.2 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 360 | 204 | Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber | Brendan O'Hara | 70,737 | 72.3 | 31.2 | 9.6 | 13.6 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 43.8 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 364 | 200 | Stirling and Strathallan | Alyn Smith | 75,296 | 76.5 | 32.4 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 49.9 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 394 | 170 | Perth and Kinross-shire | Pete Wishart | 75,339 | 74.0 | 35.1 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 47.3 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 396 | 168 | Dumfries and Galloway | Alister Jack | 76,172 | 69.1 | 39.3 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 40.4 | 0.3 | CON | SNP |
| 412 | 152 | Angus and Perthshire Glens | Dave Doogan | 75,151 | 70.1 | 36.8 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 48.3 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 413 | 152 | Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale | David Mundell | 70,255 | 71.7 | 41.3 | 11.8 | 7.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 38.1 | 0.3 | CON | CON |
| 417 | 147 | Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine | Andrew Bowie | 72,640 | 73.4 | 38.2 | 8.5 | 10.8 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 40.7 | 0.3 | CON | SNP |
| 423 | 141 | Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey | Unknown (changed seat) | 75,420 | 69.2 | 39.0 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 44.0 | 0.4 | SNP | SNP |
| 445 | 120 | Gordon and Buchan | Unknown (changed seat) | 69,002 | 68.9 | 40.9 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 40.1 | 0.4 | CON | CON |
| 448 | 116 | Aberdeenshire North and Moray East | David Duguid | 71,236 | 64.8 | 41.5 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 43.1 | 0.4 | CON | SNP |
| 453 | 112 | Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk | John Lamont | 74,518 | 71.3 | 42.9 | 9.0 | 7.7 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 38.6 | 0.4 | CON | CON |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.
© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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