The predicted results in the country and in Scotland, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.
| Party | 2019 Votes | 2019 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 44.7% | 376 | 44.7% | 46 | 61 | -15 | 361 |
| LAB | 33.0% | 197 | 33.0% | 30 | 48 | -18 | 179 |
| LIB | 11.8% | 8 | 11.8% | 29 | 0 | +29 | 37 |
| Reform | 2.1% | 0 | 2.1% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Green | 2.8% | 1 | 2.8% | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 |
| SNP | 4.0% | 48 | 4.3% | 5 | 3 | +2 | 50 |
| PlaidC | 0.5% | 2 | 0.6% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 2 |
| Other | 1.1% | 0 | 0.7% | 1 | 0 | +1 | 1 |
| N.Ire | 18 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 18 |
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| Party | 2019 Votes | 2019 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 25.1% | 6 | 25.1% | 0 | 5 | -5 | 1 |
| LAB | 18.6% | 1 | 18.6% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| LIB | 9.5% | 2 | 9.5% | 3 | 0 | +3 | 5 |
| Reform | 0.5% | 0 | 0.5% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Green | 1.0% | 0 | 1.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| SNP | 45.0% | 48 | 45.0% | 5 | 3 | +2 | 50 |
| Other | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Edinburgh South' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Fife North East', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Fife North East (prediction: LIB), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Edinburgh South (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2019 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | SNP % | OTH % | 2019 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 175 | 5 | Edinburgh South | Ian Murray | 71,688 | 74.7 | 22.3 | 39.0 | 8.3 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 28.5 | 0.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 177 | 2 | Rutherglen | Margaret Ferrier | 70,291 | 66.8 | 19.5 | 35.6 | 4.5 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 39.9 | 0.2 | SNP | SNP |
| 178 | 1 | Glasgow North East | Anne McLaughlin | 76,435 | 56.2 | 18.1 | 33.9 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 42.6 | 0.2 | SNP | SNP |
| 178 | 1 | Coatbridge and Bellshill | Steven Bonnar | 71,594 | 65.9 | 18.7 | 32.8 | 3.7 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 43.3 | 0.2 | SNP | SNP |
| 178 | 1 | Glasgow North | Patrick Grady | 75,508 | 60.7 | 17.8 | 31.0 | 5.4 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 44.1 | 0.2 | SNP | SNP |
| 178 | 1 | Airdrie and Shotts | Neil Gray | 69,843 | 62.4 | 21.1 | 29.8 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 45.3 | 0.2 | SNP | SNP |
| 178 | 1 | Glasgow West | Carol Monaghan | 72,836 | 62.8 | 19.5 | 29.5 | 5.5 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 43.4 | 0.2 | SNP | SNP |
| 178 | 1 | Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy | Neale Hanvey | 70,191 | 65.2 | 24.6 | 28.2 | 6.1 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 39.1 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 178 | 1 | Midlothian | Owen Thompson | 70,544 | 68.4 | 22.4 | 27.8 | 6.3 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 42.8 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 178 | 1 | Glasgow South | Stewart McDonald | 72,763 | 65.9 | 19.3 | 27.6 | 5.6 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 45.8 | 0.2 | SNP | SNP |
| 178 | 1 | Dunbartonshire West | Martin Docherty | 69,016 | 67.7 | 20.2 | 27.5 | 4.4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 46.2 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 178 | 1 | Hamilton and Clyde Valley | Angela Crawley | 74,123 | 67.9 | 24.3 | 26.6 | 5.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 43.2 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 178 | 1 | Glenrothes and Mid Fife | Peter Grant | 68,703 | 63.5 | 19.8 | 26.3 | 5.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 48.3 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 178 | 1 | Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West | Ronnie Cowan | 69,793 | 66.2 | 20.7 | 25.8 | 6.5 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 45.6 | 0.2 | SNP | SNP |
| 178 | 1 | Edinburgh East and Musselburgh | Tommy Sheppard | 75,152 | 69.3 | 20.1 | 25.4 | 6.7 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 45.9 | 0.2 | SNP | SNP |
| 178 | 1 | Glasgow East | David Linden | 70,653 | 57.7 | 23.3 | 25.9 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 43.8 | 0.2 | SNP | SNP |
| 178 | 1 | Paisley and Renfrewshire South | Mhairi Black | 68,828 | 67.2 | 20.8 | 24.9 | 5.7 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 47.2 | 0.2 | SNP | SNP |
| 178 | 1 | Paisley and Renfrewshire North | Gavin Newlands | 69,791 | 66.9 | 21.9 | 24.6 | 6.3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 46.0 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 178 | 1 | Dundee Central | Chris Law | 74,801 | 65.3 | 17.6 | 23.8 | 5.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 52.4 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 178 | 1 | Renfrewshire East | Kirsten Oswald | 72,232 | 76.6 | 26.9 | 24.1 | 5.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 41.8 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 178 | 1 | Bathgate and Linlithgow | Martyn Day | 70,467 | 66.4 | 24.0 | 23.5 | 5.9 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 44.7 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 178 | 1 | East Kilbride and Strathaven | Lisa Cameron | 74,435 | 69.3 | 23.8 | 23.0 | 6.0 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 45.5 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 178 | 1 | Dunfermline and Dollar | Douglas Chapman | 70,060 | 69.9 | 23.4 | 22.8 | 7.2 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 44.9 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 178 | 1 | Glasgow South West | Chris Stephens | 70,821 | 57.9 | 22.6 | 23.0 | 5.7 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 46.9 | 0.2 | SNP | SNP |
| 178 | 1 | Lothian East | Kenny MacAskill | 70,354 | 71.7 | 27.9 | 22.5 | 7.7 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 40.1 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 178 | 1 | Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch | Stuart McDonald | 69,904 | 68.6 | 20.8 | 21.9 | 5.1 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 50.4 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 178 | 1 | Livingston | Hannah Bardell | 74,224 | 66.3 | 23.5 | 22.0 | 5.8 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 46.9 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 178 | 1 | Stirling and Strathallan | Alyn Smith | 75,296 | 76.5 | 27.1 | 21.5 | 5.6 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 44.6 | 0.0 | SNP | SNP |
| 178 | 1 | Kilmarnock and Loudoun | Alan Brown | 74,517 | 63.9 | 24.2 | 20.2 | 5.1 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 49.0 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 178 | 1 | Edinburgh South West | Joanna Cherry | 73,516 | 70.9 | 24.7 | 18.2 | 8.4 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 46.9 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 178 | 1 | Ayrshire Central | Philippa Whitford | 69,742 | 66.7 | 29.9 | 17.2 | 5.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 46.0 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 178 | 1 | Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock | Allan Dorans | 71,971 | 64.7 | 31.9 | 16.7 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 44.4 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 178 | 1 | Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke | Marion Fellows | 71,444 | 65.4 | 23.3 | 16.6 | 4.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 53.5 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 178 | 1 | Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) | Angus MacNeil | 21,106 | 68.6 | 25.4 | 16.2 | 4.7 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 46.4 | 6.8 | SNP | SNP |
| 178 | 1 | Edinburgh North and Leith | Deidre Brock | 78,178 | 73.1 | 22.5 | 14.7 | 9.5 | 0.5 | 3.8 | 48.8 | 0.2 | SNP | SNP |
| 178 | 1 | Alloa and Grangemouth | John Nicolson | 70,834 | 69.8 | 25.4 | 14.7 | 5.4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 52.7 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 178 | 1 | Ayrshire North and Arran | Patricia Gibson | 73,534 | 65.5 | 27.9 | 14.1 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 51.1 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 178 | 1 | Aberdeen North | Kirsty Blackman | 76,515 | 63.5 | 25.2 | 13.9 | 7.1 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 52.0 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 179 | 0 | Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale | David Mundell | 70,255 | 71.7 | 41.1 | 12.9 | 6.3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 38.0 | 0.3 | CON | CON |
| 179 | 0 | Falkirk | Johnny McNally | 73,900 | 66.2 | 25.3 | 13.0 | 6.4 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 53.3 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 179 | 0 | Aberdeen South | Stephen Flynn | 76,047 | 67.9 | 28.8 | 11.8 | 9.1 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 48.7 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 179 | 0 | Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine | Andrew Bowie | 72,640 | 73.4 | 35.7 | 11.0 | 10.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 41.2 | 0.3 | CON | SNP |
| 179 | 0 | Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk | John Lamont | 74,518 | 71.3 | 38.7 | 11.1 | 8.2 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 40.2 | 0.3 | CON | SNP |
| 179 | 0 | Arbroath and Broughty Ferry | Stewart Hosie | 75,106 | 68.1 | 26.8 | 10.6 | 6.7 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 55.1 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 179 | 0 | Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey | Unknown (changed seat) | 75,420 | 69.2 | 33.9 | 10.6 | 6.2 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 47.3 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 179 | 0 | Aberdeenshire North and Moray East | David Duguid | 71,236 | 64.8 | 35.4 | 10.3 | 5.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 48.1 | 0.0 | CON | SNP |
| 179 | 0 | Perth and Kinross-shire | Pete Wishart | 75,339 | 74.0 | 31.3 | 9.6 | 7.1 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 51.1 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 179 | 0 | Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber | Brendan O'Hara | 70,737 | 72.3 | 28.8 | 9.6 | 11.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 48.9 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 179 | 0 | Gordon and Buchan | Unknown (changed seat) | 69,002 | 68.9 | 34.7 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 45.8 | 0.0 | CON | SNP |
| 179 | 0 | Angus and Perthshire Glens | Dave Doogan | 75,151 | 70.1 | 32.4 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 53.0 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 179 | 0 | Dumfries and Galloway | Alister Jack | 76,172 | 69.1 | 38.8 | 9.6 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 41.4 | 0.3 | CON | SNP |
| 179 | 0 | Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire | Drew Hendry | 77,420 | 71.3 | 26.0 | 6.5 | 16.0 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 49.7 | 0.3 | SNP | SNP |
| 179 | 0 | Orkney and Shetland | Alistair Carmichael | 34,210 | 67.7 | 18.4 | 4.8 | 40.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 34.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 179 | 0 | Edinburgh West | Christine Jardine | 75,666 | 75.0 | 21.1 | 4.5 | 38.5 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 34.0 | 0.2 | LIB | LIB |
| 179 | 0 | Dunbartonshire Mid | Amy Callaghan | 73,389 | 79.1 | 18.7 | 3.9 | 38.9 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 37.1 | 0.3 | SNP | LIB |
| 179 | 0 | Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross | Unknown (changed seat) | 74,896 | 69.3 | 18.4 | 1.3 | 41.4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 37.5 | 0.3 | SNP | LIB |
| 179 | 0 | Fife North East | Unknown (changed seat) | 70,255 | 73.7 | 17.3 | 0.4 | 41.5 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 39.3 | 0.0 | SNP | LIB |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.
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