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In a written statement in March 2020, the government announced that it is going to restart the stalled programme of new boundaries for Westminster constituencies. This new review will keep the number of seats at 650 and not reduce them to 600 as had been planned by David Cameron's coalition government.
But the next boundary review will require new seats to be nearly identical in terms of the number of electors in each seat. The review has a very strict limit, and requires each new seat to have an electorate which was not further than 5pc lower or higher than the average.
The previous legislation also specified that further new boundary reviews would take place every five years. This new act changes that period to every eight years, allowing for two Westminster elections to take place using each set of boundaries.
The current boundaries were first used in 2010 (and 2005 in Scotland), and are now getting a little out of date. Regular boundary reviews are an established part of the electoral process and a new review would be due around now in any case. The reviews are conducted by the four independent Boundary Commissions for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and involve periods of public consultation.
This page contains description, analysis and predictions for the new 2023 boundaries as proposed by the four Boundary Commissions.
The Boundary Commissions published initial proposals between June and October 2021, with revised proposals in November 2022. Final proposals were published in June 2023.
|Party||2019 Votes||2019 Seats||Pred Votes||Low Seats||Pred Seats||High Seats|
Prediction based on opinion polls from 11 Oct 2023 to 27 Oct 2023, sampling 17,435 people.
The table below shows the expected changes in the number of seats won by each party. This assumes that the General Election of 2019 was run again using the new boundaries and compares the hypothetical number of seats won by each party with the actual number. The numbers shown in the table are the change of seats.
|Area||Old Seats||New Seats||Change||CON||LAB||LIB||Brexit||Green||SNP||Plaid||DUP||SF||SDLP||Alliance|
On the intitial proposals, the Conservatives are set to benefit by around 13 seats, and Labour could lose eight seats. This is mainly due to seats moving out of Wales and the north of England and into the South.
In June 2023, the Boundary Commission for England published final proposals for the new English constituencies. The number of English seats has risen from 533 to 543. The estimated political breakdown of these seats is shown in the table below.
|Party||Current Seats||New Seats||Change|
Electoral Calculus' calculations show the Conservatives gaining thirteen seats in England, while Labour loses two seats.
On 28 June 2023, The Boundary Commission for Wales published final proposals for the new Welsh constituencies. The number of Welsh seats has fallen from 40 to 32. The estimated political breakdown of these seats is shown in the table below.
|Party||Current Seats||New Seats||Change|
All the major parties lose some seats in Wales, due to the shrinking number of seats overall. Labour lose four seats, with the Conservatives and Plaid losing two seats each. But Labour is still predicted to have won over half the Welsh seats, mostly in south Wales.
You can also see more details of every proposed new seat in Wales.
On 28 June 2023, The Boundary Commission for Scotland published final proposals for the new Scottish constituencies. The number of Scottish seats has fallen from 59 to 57. The estimated political breakdown of these seats is shown in the table below.
|Party||Current Seats||New Seats||Change|
There is not much change to Scotland as the majority of seats are still held by the SNP. The Liberal Democrats are at risk of losing two marginal seats which are expanding.
You can also see more details of every proposed new seat in Scotland.
On 28 June 2023, The Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland published final proposals for the new Northern Ireland constituencies. The number of Northern Ireland seats is unchanged at 18 and their political composition has not altered. The estimated political breakdown of these seats is shown in the table below.
|Party||Current Seats||New Seats||Change|
There is little change in Northern Ireland on the basis of these proposals.
You can also see more details of every proposed new seat in Northern Ireland.
This analysis includes all the final proposals throughout the UK.
The following 24 seats are 'disappearing' in the sense that they are being broken up into pieces which will form the smaller part of new seats. The sitting MPs will have a political problem as there may not be a vacant winnable nearby seat.
|Existing seat||Party||MP as at 2019||County (Area)|
|Arfon||Plaid||Hywel Williams||Gwynedd (Wales)|
|Blaydon||LAB||Liz Twist||Newcastle area (North East)|
|Brigg and Goole||CON||Andrew Percy||Humber area (Yorks/Humber)|
|Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South||CON||Simon Hart||Dyfed (Wales)|
|Clwyd South||CON||Simon Baynes||Clwyd (Wales)|
|Cynon Valley||LAB||Beth Winter||Mid Glamorgan (Wales)|
|Denton and Reddish||LAB||Andrew Gwynne||Eastern Manchester (North West)|
|Dudley South||CON||Mike Wood||Black Country (West Midlands)|
|Glasgow Central||SNP||Alison Thewliss||Glasgow area (Scotland)|
|Kingswood||CON||Chris Skidmore||Bristol area (South West)|
|Leeds West||LAB||Rachel Reeves||West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)|
|Meon Valley||CON||Flick Drummond||Hampshire (South East)|
|Newport West||LAB||Ruth Jones||Gwent (Wales)|
|Ogmore||LAB||Chris Elmore||Mid Glamorgan (Wales)|
|Penrith and The Border||CON||Neil Hudson||Cumbria (North West)|
|Ross Skye and Lochaber||SNP||Ian Blackford||Highland (Scotland)|
|Stone||CON||Bill Cash||Staffordshire (West Midlands)|
|Swansea East||LAB||Carolyn Harris||West Glamorgan (Wales)|
|Tyneside North||LAB||Mary Glindon||Newcastle area (North East)|
|Vale of Clwyd||CON||James Davies||Clwyd (Wales)|
|Walsall South||LAB||Valerie Vaz||Black Country (West Midlands)|
|Wiltshire North||CON||James Gray||Wiltshire (South West)|
|Wirral South||LAB||Alison McGovern||Merseyside (North West)|
|Wyre and Preston North||CON||Ben Wallace||Lancashire (North West)|
The following 16 seats are expected to change politically due to the boundary changes and are likely to be lost by the incumbent party. Many of these new seats are quite marginal, so the sitting MP has a chance of being re-elected, but others are less close.
|MP at 2019||New seat||New Party||New|
|Batley and Spen||LAB||Tracy Brabin||Spen Valley||CON||5,950||West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)|
|Blyth Valley||CON||Ian Levy||Cramlington and Killingworth||LAB||1,081||Newcastle area (North East)|
|Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross||LIB||Jamie Stone||Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross||SNP||4,112||Highland (Scotland)|
|Carmarthen East and Dinefwr||Plaid||Jonathan Edwards||Carmarthen||CON||4,692||Dyfed (Wales)|
|Dewsbury||CON||Mark Eastwood||Dewsbury and Batley||LAB||12,240||West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)|
|Durham North West||CON||Richard Holden||Blaydon and Consett||LAB||3,278||Durham (North East)|
|Eltham||LAB||Clive Efford||Eltham and Chislehurst||CON||2,568||Greenwich (London)|
|Fife North East||LIB||Wendy Chamberlain||Fife North East||SNP||972||Fife (Scotland)|
|Gordon||SNP||Richard Thomson||Gordon and Buchan||CON||2,668||Grampian (Scotland)|
|Heywood and Middleton||CON||Chris Clarkson||Heywood and Middleton North||LAB||947||Eastern Manchester (North West)|
|Hull West and Hessle||LAB||Emma Hardy||Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice||CON||3,096||Humber area (Yorks/Humber)|
|Lancaster and Fleetwood||LAB||Cat Smith||Lancaster and Wyre||CON||3,311||Lancashire (North West)|
|Moray||CON||Douglas Ross||Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey||SNP||644||Grampian (Scotland)|
|Westmorland and Lonsdale||LIB||Tim Farron||Westmorland and Lonsdale||CON||4,850||Cumbria (North West)|
|Wirral West||LAB||Margaret Greenwood||Wirral West||CON||773||Merseyside (North West)|
Due to population movements from the rest of the country into England, and from the north to the south of England, there are 24 seats which are newly created. These are defined as seats which don't contain the larger part of any existing seat. These seats are popular with prospective MPs as there is no natural incumbent.
|Bicester and Woodstock||CON||13,591||Oxfordshire (South East)|
|Bristol North East||LAB||7,801||Bristol area (South West)|
|Buckingham and Bletchley||CON||13,111||Buckinghamshire (South East)|
|Cheshire Mid||CON||3,604||Cheshire (North West)|
|Cotswolds North||CON||21,673||Gloucestershire (South West)|
|Earley and Woodley||CON||8,745||Berkshire (South East)|
|East Grinstead and Uckfield||CON||22,720||West Sussex (South East)|
|Frome and East Somerset||CON||15,471||Somerset (South West)|
|Godalming and Ash||CON||12,033||Surrey (South East)|
|Hamble Valley||CON||22,778||Hampshire (South East)|
|Harpenden and Berkhamsted||CON||14,145||Hertfordshire (Anglia)|
|Isle of Wight West||CON||11,751||Hampshire (South East)|
|Leeds West and Pudsey||LAB||5,231||West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)|
|Manchester Rusholme||LAB||27,492||Central Manchester (North West)|
|Melksham and Devizes||CON||15,190||Wiltshire (South West)|
|Melton and Syston||CON||20,153||Leicestershire (East Midlands)|
|St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire||CON||12,842||Cambridgeshire (Anglia)|
|Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge||CON||21,716||Staffordshire (West Midlands)|
|Stratford and Bow||LAB||25,800||Newham (London)|
|Streatham and Croydon North||LAB||18,824||Lambeth (London)|
|Tiverton and Minehead||CON||20,613||Somerset (South West)|
|Wakefield and Rothwell||CON||2,268||West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)|
|Waveney Valley||CON||20,626||Suffolk (Anglia)|
|Weald of Kent||CON||27,316||Kent (South East)|
Electoral Calculus has made its own estimate of the political impact of these changes. This was done using both the latest ward electorate figures from 2020, combined with an Electoral Calculus algorithm to create an example set of new constituency boundaries. You can see full details of the estimates here.
The new legislation, the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2019-21 (text) instructs the four Boundary Commissions (one each for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) to conduct new parliamentary boundary reviews with a "review date" of 1 December 2020, and to complete the review before 1 July 2023.
The new parliamentary seats will be made up of, as much as possible, by joining together groups of (entire) local authority wards. This makes the local authority wards an important part of the new seat boundary process, so Electoral Calculus needs to use the same wards as the boundary commissions.
An innovation in the act is that the wards to be used are the "local government boundaries which exist, or are prospective, on the review date". This means that the wards used will be similar to the wards of 2020, but will include wards which will change in the next couple of years.
The Boundary Commission for England has interpreted the legislation to mean that they should use the English council wards as at 2021, but additionally to include the proposed new wards for some London boroughs.
Electoral Calculus electoral data has been upgraded to work with these wards of "2021+". These "Wards 2021+" are similar to the earlier "Wards 2019" which were incorporated in April 2020, but include changes to the following local authorities:
|New unitary authority||Previous district councils|
Over all the changes, there are a total of 841 new local authority wards.
The local election results from May 2021 for the newly created 2020 and 2021 wards have been included in the calculations. But there have never yet been elections for the new London wards, which will first be contested in 2022, so Electoral Calculus has used models to infer the likely result of earlier local elections in those new wards.
Using those data, it is possible to infer the likely result of the December 2019 general election in every ward of 2021+. This is necessary for analysing the Boundary Commissions proposals, in terms of predicting the political composition of each new seat.
See also the information about the now-abandoned "2018 review", to compare against the 2023 Review.
This unique map can show both true geography and also an equal-area for a more representative view. It also shows the last election, our predicted results, and the changes on a seat-by-seat basis.