New Constituency Boundaries for 2023

This page first posted 27 April 2020, last updated 24 August 2023

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UK New Boundary Seat Map 2023

New Boundaries 2023 Introduction

The current constituency boundaries have been in use since 2010. Neither of the two previous boundary reviews (in 2013 and 2018) have been adopted and implemented.

In a written statement in March 2020, the government announced that it is going to restart the stalled programme of new boundaries for Westminster constituencies. This new review will keep the number of seats at 650 and not reduce them to 600 as had been planned by David Cameron's coalition government.

But the next boundary review will require new seats to be nearly identical in terms of the number of electors in each seat. The review has a very strict limit, and requires each new seat to have an electorate which was not further than 5pc lower or higher than the average.

The previous legislation also specified that further new boundary reviews would take place every five years. This new act changes that period to every eight years, allowing for two Westminster elections to take place using each set of boundaries.

The current boundaries were first used in 2010 (and 2005 in Scotland), and are now getting a little out of date. Regular boundary reviews are an established part of the electoral process and a new review would be due around now in any case. The reviews are conducted by the four independent Boundary Commissions for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and involve periods of public consultation.

This page contains description, analysis and predictions for the new 2023 boundaries as proposed by the four Boundary Commissions.

The Boundary Commissions published initial proposals between June and October 2021, with revised proposals in November 2022. Final proposals were published in June 2023.

The final proposals were approved by The Parliamentary Constituencies Order 2023 on 15 November 2023, and the new boundaries will be used at the next general election.

Current New Boundary Prediction: Labour majority 272

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesLow SeatsPred SeatsHigh Seats
CON 44.7%376 21.9%4280236
LAB 33.0%197 41.4%321461504
LIB 11.8%8 10.8%346377
Reform 2.1%0 14.8%017
Green 2.8%1 5.6%022
SNP 4.0%48 3.5%62038
PlaidC 0.5%2 0.7%135
Other 1.1%0 1.5%023
DUP 8  7 
SF 7  7 
SDLP 2  2 
UUP 0  1 
Alliance 1  1 

Prediction based on opinion polls from 05 Jun 2024 to 13 Jun 2024, sampling 19,426 people.

Summary by Area as at 2019

The table below shows the expected changes in the number of seats won by each party. This assumes that the General Election of 2019 was run again using the new boundaries and compares the hypothetical number of seats won by each party with the actual number. The numbers shown in the table are the change of seats.

AreaOld SeatsNew SeatsChangeCONLABLIBBrexitGreenSNPPlaidDUPSFSDLPAlliance
Northern Ireland1818000000000000
Scotland5957−200−200000000
North East2927−2−20000000000
North West7573−21−2−100000000
Yorks/Humber545401−1000000000
Wales4032−8−2−40000−20000
West Midlands5957−2−1−1000000000
East Midlands4647110000000000
Anglia5861330000000000
South West5558321000000000
London7375211000000000
South East8491770000000000
Total650650011−6−3000−20000

On the intitial proposals, the Conservatives are set to benefit by around 13 seats, and Labour could lose eight seats. This is mainly due to seats moving out of Wales and the north of England and into the South.

England – Final proposals

In June 2023, the Boundary Commission for England published final proposals for the new English constituencies. The number of English seats has risen from 533 to 543. The estimated political breakdown of these seats is shown in the table below.

PartyCurrent SeatsNew SeatsChange
CON34535813
LAB180178−2
LIB76−1
Green110
Total53354310

Electoral Calculus' calculations show the Conservatives gaining thirteen seats in England, while Labour loses two seats.

You can also see more details of the proposed new English seats on a regional basis: North East, North West, Yorks/Humber, West Midlands, East Midlands, Anglia, South West, London, South East.

Wales – Final proposals

On 28 June 2023, The Boundary Commission for Wales published final proposals for the new Welsh constituencies. The number of Welsh seats has fallen from 40 to 32. The estimated political breakdown of these seats is shown in the table below.

PartyCurrent SeatsNew SeatsChange
CON1412−2
LAB2218−4
LIB000
Plaid42−2
Total4032−8

All the major parties lose some seats in Wales, due to the shrinking number of seats overall. Labour lose four seats, with the Conservatives and Plaid losing two seats each. But Labour is still predicted to have won over half the Welsh seats, mostly in south Wales.

You can also see more details of every proposed new seat in Wales.

Scotland – Final proposals

On 28 June 2023, The Boundary Commission for Scotland published final proposals for the new Scottish constituencies. The number of Scottish seats has fallen from 59 to 57. The estimated political breakdown of these seats is shown in the table below.

PartyCurrent SeatsNew SeatsChange
CON660
LAB110
LIB42−2
SNP48480
Total5957−2

There is not much change to Scotland as the majority of seats are still held by the SNP. The Liberal Democrats are at risk of losing two marginal seats which are expanding.

You can also see more details of every proposed new seat in Scotland.

Northern Ireland – Final proposals

On 28 June 2023, The Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland published final proposals for the new Northern Ireland constituencies. The number of Northern Ireland seats is unchanged at 18 and their political composition has not altered. The estimated political breakdown of these seats is shown in the table below.

PartyCurrent SeatsNew SeatsChange
DUP880
SF770
SDLP220
Alliance110
Total18180

There is little change in Northern Ireland on the basis of these proposals.

You can also see more details of every proposed new seat in Northern Ireland.

UK – Final proposals

This analysis includes all the final proposals throughout the UK.

Disappearing seats

The following 24 seats are 'disappearing' in the sense that they are being broken up into pieces which will form the smaller part of new seats. The sitting MPs will have a political problem as there may not be a vacant winnable nearby seat.

Existing seatPartyMP as at 2019County (Area)
ArfonPlaidHywel WilliamsGwynedd (Wales)
BlaydonLABLiz TwistNewcastle area (North East)
Brigg and GooleCONAndrew PercyHumber area (Yorks/Humber)
Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthCONSimon HartDyfed (Wales)
Clwyd SouthCONSimon BaynesClwyd (Wales)
Cynon ValleyLABBeth WinterMid Glamorgan (Wales)
Denton and ReddishLABAndrew GwynneEastern Manchester (North West)
Dudley SouthCONMike WoodBlack Country (West Midlands)
Glasgow CentralSNPAlison ThewlissGlasgow area (Scotland)
KingswoodCONChris SkidmoreBristol area (South West)
Leeds WestLABRachel ReevesWest Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Meon ValleyCONFlick DrummondHampshire (South East)
Newport WestLABRuth JonesGwent (Wales)
OgmoreLABChris ElmoreMid Glamorgan (Wales)
Penrith and The BorderCONNeil HudsonCumbria (North West)
Ross Skye and LochaberSNPIan BlackfordHighland (Scotland)
StoneCONBill CashStaffordshire (West Midlands)
Swansea EastLABCarolyn HarrisWest Glamorgan (Wales)
Tyneside NorthLABMary GlindonNewcastle area (North East)
Vale of ClwydCONJames DaviesClwyd (Wales)
Walsall SouthLABValerie VazBlack Country (West Midlands)
Wiltshire NorthCONJames GrayWiltshire (South West)
Wirral SouthLABAlison McGovernMerseyside (North West)
Wyre and Preston NorthCONBen WallaceLancashire (North West)

Changing seats

The following 16 seats are expected to change politically due to the boundary changes and are likely to be lost by the incumbent party. Many of these new seats are quite marginal, so the sitting MP has a chance of being re-elected, but others are less close.

Old seatOld
Party
MP at 2019New seatNew PartyNew
Majority
County/Area
Batley and SpenLABTracy BrabinSpen ValleyCON5,950West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Blyth ValleyCONIan LevyCramlington and KillingworthLAB1,081Newcastle area (North East)
Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossLIBJamie StoneCaithness Sutherland and Easter RossSNP4,112Highland (Scotland)
Carmarthen East and DinefwrPlaidJonathan EdwardsCarmarthenCON4,692Dyfed (Wales)
DewsburyCONMark EastwoodDewsbury and BatleyLAB12,240West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Durham North WestCONRichard HoldenBlaydon and ConsettLAB3,278Durham (North East)
ElthamLABClive EffordEltham and ChislehurstCON2,568Greenwich (London)
Fife North EastLIBWendy ChamberlainFife North EastSNP972Fife (Scotland)
GordonSNPRichard ThomsonGordon and BuchanCON2,668Grampian (Scotland)
Heywood and MiddletonCONChris ClarksonHeywood and Middleton NorthLAB947Eastern Manchester (North West)
Hull West and HessleLABEmma HardyKingston upon Hull West and HaltempriceCON3,096Humber area (Yorks/Humber)
Lancaster and FleetwoodLABCat SmithLancaster and WyreCON3,311Lancashire (North West)
MorayCONDouglas RossMoray West, Nairn and StrathspeySNP644Grampian (Scotland)
Westmorland and LonsdaleLIBTim FarronWestmorland and LonsdaleCON4,850Cumbria (North West)
Wirral WestLABMargaret GreenwoodWirral WestCON773Merseyside (North West)

New seats

Due to population movements from the rest of the country into England, and from the north to the south of England, there are 24 seats which are newly created. These are defined as seats which don't contain the larger part of any existing seat. These seats are popular with prospective MPs as there is no natural incumbent.

New SeatPartyMajorityCounty/Area
Bicester and WoodstockCON13,591Oxfordshire (South East)
Bristol North EastLAB7,801Bristol area (South West)
Buckingham and BletchleyCON13,111Buckinghamshire (South East)
Cheshire MidCON3,604Cheshire (North West)
Cotswolds NorthCON21,673Gloucestershire (South West)
Earley and WoodleyCON8,745Berkshire (South East)
East Grinstead and UckfieldCON22,720West Sussex (South East)
Frome and East SomersetCON15,471Somerset (South West)
Godalming and AshCON12,033Surrey (South East)
Hamble ValleyCON22,778Hampshire (South East)
Harpenden and BerkhamstedCON14,145Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Isle of Wight WestCON11,751Hampshire (South East)
Leeds West and PudseyLAB5,231West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Manchester RusholmeLAB27,492Central Manchester (North West)
Melksham and DevizesCON15,190Wiltshire (South West)
Melton and SystonCON20,153Leicestershire (East Midlands)
St Neots and Mid CambridgeshireCON12,842Cambridgeshire (Anglia)
Stone, Great Wyrley and PenkridgeCON21,716Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Stratford and BowLAB25,800Newham (London)
Streatham and Croydon NorthLAB18,824Lambeth (London)
Tiverton and MineheadCON20,613Somerset (South West)
Wakefield and RothwellCON2,268West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Waveney ValleyCON20,626Suffolk (Anglia)
Weald of KentCON27,316Kent (South East)

Likely Political Impact estimated before official proposals

Electoral Calculus has made its own estimate of the political impact of these changes. This was done using both the latest ward electorate figures from 2020, combined with an Electoral Calculus algorithm to create an example set of new constituency boundaries. You can see full details of the estimates here.

Local Authority Ward Boundaries 2021+

The new legislation, the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2019-21 (text) instructs the four Boundary Commissions (one each for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) to conduct new parliamentary boundary reviews with a "review date" of 1 December 2020, and to complete the review before 1 July 2023.

The new parliamentary seats will be made up of, as much as possible, by joining together groups of (entire) local authority wards. This makes the local authority wards an important part of the new seat boundary process, so Electoral Calculus needs to use the same wards as the boundary commissions.

An innovation in the act is that the wards to be used are the "local government boundaries which exist, or are prospective, on the review date". This means that the wards used will be similar to the wards of 2020, but will include wards which will change in the next couple of years.

The Boundary Commission for England has interpreted the legislation to mean that they should use the English council wards as at 2021, but additionally to include the proposed new wards for some London boroughs.

Electoral Calculus electoral data has been upgraded to work with these wards of "2021+". These "Wards 2021+" are similar to the earlier "Wards 2019" which were incorporated in April 2020, but include changes to the following local authorities:

There are three new unitary authorities with replace several existing councils. These are shown in the table below.
New unitary authorityPrevious district councils
BuckinghamshireAylesbury Vale
Chiltern
South Bucks
Wycombe
North NorthamptonshireCorby
East Northamptonshire
Kettering
Wellingborough
West NorthamptonshireDaventry
Northampton
South Northamptonshire

Over all the changes, there are a total of 841 new local authority wards.

The local election results from May 2021 for the newly created 2020 and 2021 wards have been included in the calculations. But there have never yet been elections for the new London wards, which will first be contested in 2022, so Electoral Calculus has used models to infer the likely result of earlier local elections in those new wards.

Using those data, it is possible to infer the likely result of the December 2019 general election in every ward of 2021+. This is necessary for analysing the Boundary Commissions proposals, in terms of predicting the political composition of each new seat.

History of revisions.

The data presented has been revised at various times.

See also the information about the now-abandoned "2018 review", to compare against the 2023 Review.

Prediction Map

Cartographic map

This unique map can show both true geography and also an equal-area for a more representative view. It also shows the last election, our predicted results, and the changes on a seat-by-seat basis.