Electoral Calculus is an experienced predictor of elections, and made the most accurate pre-poll predictions for the UK General Election in 2019.
We are uniquely placed to help you predict an election in the UK or any other established democracy with free and fair elections.
Among the prediction services we offer are:
Campaigners, media organisations and others are often interested in the likely result of an upcoming election. We can use our experience of both elections and advanced polling analysis to make predictions of the likely result, and the chances of the various outcomes.
We can work either with your existing pollster, or else commission custom polling for you, and feed the polling into our analysis.
The prediction will include both the likely overall result, and the result in every relevant geographic region or FPTP seat.
We have experience of a wide range of electoral systems including "first past the post" (FPTP), proportional representation (PR), and hybrid systems. We also have a lot of experience with adjusting for new electoral boundaries (re-districting) which might be in force for your next election.
Forecasting results can never be guaranteed 100pc, but we will strive hard to get you a credible election forecast based on scientific methods and responsible fieldwork.
We are happy to work with political parties and campaigning organisations seeking to achieve the best result for their campaign.
We can provide predictions of the likely result on a seat-by-seat basis to help allocate campaign resources and to identify target seats. We can also evaluate the likely impact of potential messages on those key seats.
Our long experience of electoral re-districting lets us cope with new constituency boundaries and/or new electoral rules and processes.
We are delighted to help media organisations with their election night coverage. This can involve a custom combination of pre-poll forecasting, exit poll forecasting, and live "now casting" of the likely final result throughout the election night.
This can add an exciting new dimension of insight for your election night news team and help differentiate you from your competitors.
If you have more questions or would like to check whether a potential election is suitable for prediction, or get a quote for a particular project, please contact us at:
020 3627 8141.