Since 2010, Electoral Calculus has been at the forefront of predicting elections, delivering accurate, data-driven election analysis that can support strategic decision-making.
As established predictors in the UK and democracies worldwide, we help political parties, campaign teams and candidates understand the likely outcomes at national, regional, or local level, so they can make informed decisions with a clear view of the electoral landscape.
Among the prediction services we offer are:
We can use our experience of both elections and innovative MRP analysis to make predictions of the likely result, and the chances of various outcomes. Not only are our methods more accurate than conventional polling, but they are also more cost-effective than other MRP providers.
We can work either with your existing pollster or commission custom polling for you, and feed the polling into our analysis.
The prediction will include both the likely overall result, and the result in every relevant geographic region or seat.
While no forecast can ever be guaranteed, we use rigorous scientific methods and responsible fieldwork to deliver the most credible and actionable election predictions possible.
We provide bespoke prediction services for political parties and campaigning organisations seeking to achieve the best result for their campaign.
Our advanced polling analysis provides likely results on a localised basis, which can help you to identify target seats or wards and allocate campaign resources. We can also commission polls with questions of your choosing, enabling you to evaluate the potential impact of campaign messaging in key seats. This can provide your organisation with crucial insight into voter attitudes and party support in the battlegrounds that matter most.
Our long experience of electoral re-districting lets us cope with new constituency boundaries and/or new electoral rules and processes.
We work closely with media organisations to support their election night coverage. This can involve a custom combination of pre-poll forecasting, exit poll forecasting, and live "now casting" of the likely final result throughout the election night.
This can add an exciting new dimension of insight for your election night news team and help differentiate you from your competitors.
We are happy to make predictions in any established democracy with free and fair elections.
Our advanced polling analysis can give you insight into the likely result of an election in countries with reasonable polling and a public census. If you would like to know if we can predict an election in your country, don't hesitate to get in touch.
We have experience within a wide range of electoral systems including "first past the post" (FPTP), proportional representation (PR), and hybrid systems. We also have a lot of experience with adjusting for new electoral boundaries (re-districting) which might be in force for your next election.
If you have more questions or would like to know whether an election is suitable for prediction, or get a quote for a particular project, please contact us at:
Telephone: 020 3627 8141.