Live Seat Data Map

Access unique prediction insights into your seat. Visit our store to download the data or a complimentary sample today.

Electoral Calculus offers a new and unique seat-level data service designed specifically for candidates, campaign teams and local parties. Powered by large-scale MRP polling and our comprehensive database of past election results, this service provides:

Current predicted results for your seat
Expected swings to and from each party
Likely turnout prediction figures

Mapping

Our data reaches across multiple geographical levels, providing live and in depth insights you can use for effective campaign planning, message targeting, and "get out the vote" efforts.

Powered by advanced MRP modelling, the predictions offer estimates for turnout, voting intention, and potential gains in every ward and output area in your seat.

Voting intention predictions are based on Electoral Calculus' dynamic election forecasts. These are based on MRP polling that we conduct periodically with pollster Find Out Now, and are updated at least monthly using recent information from other national opinion polls, to ensure up-to-date and detailed predictions across all seats.

Data are shown at three increasingly detailed geographic levels:

Whole seat
Local council wards, in district, borough or unitary councils
Census output areas

There are around 8,400 wards in the UK, with an average of 5,600 voters in each one. Wards are naturally sub-parts of parliamentary seats, so information gained at a ward level can be very informative for the ultimate analysis of an entire seat, and also provides valuable campaign insights.

The most detailed geographical level is the Census output area, which is the finest level of census reporting. These output areas are very small, consisting of around one to three streets or a few postcodes. There are over two hundred thousand of them in the UK, with an average of 200 voters in each one. Output areas can be a powerful way to target messaging by post, telephone or direct canvassing.

Stay informed. Stay ahead. Start exploring your seat now.

Electoral Calculus data package

Unlock powerful insights with our comprehensive data package that includes:

An introduction and guide to help you navigate the data and mapping, so you can hit the ground running.
Unique online maps for your constituency so you can see the data visually and focus your campaign for maximum impact.
Detailed spreadsheets with data in numerical form giving predicted results, vote swing, previous election result and much more.
Free monthly updates all the way to the next general election

Live Maps

The mapping service includes:

Password-protected access to a unique web page containing the map of your constituency.
Ability to see data at either ward or small output area and to switch between them
Data displayed includes:
- Predicted party winner in each ward or small area
- Actual winner at July 2024 general election in each ward or small area
- Heat map of swings towards and away from your party across the seat
- Postcode lookup
- Pop-up info about any ward or small area by clicking on it

DETAILED DATA DOWNLOAD

The data spreadsheet includes:

Current Prediction: the predicted results of a hypothetical immediate general election in each neighbourhood, plus an estimate of the likely turnout. These figures can help you identify where your supporters can be found, and help you to get out the vote. These estimates are based on MRP polling and Electoral Calculus modelling, and are updated monthly to reflect changing public attitudes so you're always working with the latest insights.
Predicted Swing: the difference between the predicted results and the actual results at the last general election. This shows in which areas your party is gaining the most support.
Previous General Election 2024: the general election result as at July 2024. For wards and output areas, this is our estimate for how votes were cast in those areas, based on our MRP polling at the time.
EU Referendum 2016: the results of the 2016 referendum on EU membership, as estimated by Electoral Calculus for the small geographies.
Politics 3D: our unique mapping of political attitudes onto three axes - Economic, National and Social, along with the dominant tribe from our seven types of political 'tribe'. See 3D Political Attitudes for more information.
Census and other official data: Also included is basic data from the 2021 Census data by ward and output area for fifteen key census questions, which are the most relevant for determining political attitudes. These are National Identity, Health, Country of Birth, Education status, Occupation type, Socio-economic Classification, Age, and Social Grade, Deprivation, House ownership, Car ownership, Ethnicity, Religion, Occupation status, Marital status. Additionally, there are also three economic indicators: Gross household income, individual disposable income, and average house prices. The census data are freely provided by the ONS by (2021) ward and output area and can be directly obtained from them if desired.

PRICING

Price for all-in data package : £195 per seat.

More Information

For more information about all the details of this service please see our PDF Guide which you can print out or share with colleagues.

Online store

To download the complete data package for any seat right now, or for a free sample, please visit our online store where you can get your data in a few clicks.

Shop online

For more details, please contact us at , or 020 3627 8141.