Election Prediction

The predicted results in the country and in South East, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National Prediction: Labour majority 4

Table of all seat results in South East

South East Prediction

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

Party	2010 Votes	2010 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	37.0%	307	27.0%	4	66	-62	245
LAB	29.7%	258	30.0%	69	0	+69	327
LIB	23.6%	57	6.0%	0	57	-57	0
UKIP	3.2%	0	24.0%	50	0	+50	50
Green	1.0%	1	0.0%	0	1	-1	0
SNP	1.7%	6	1.7%	0	0	+0	6
PlaidC	0.6%	3	0.6%	0	0	+0	3
Other	3.4%	0	10.7%	1	0	+1	1
N.Ire		18		0	0	+0	18

Party	2010 Votes	2010 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	49.9%	75	39.7%	0	4	-4	71
LAB	16.2%	4	16.6%	4	0	+4	8
LIB	26.2%	4	7.1%	0	4	-4	0
UKIP	4.1%	0	26.6%	5	0	+5	5
Green	1.4%	1	0.0%	0	1	-1	0
Other	2.1%	0	10.0%	0	0	+0	0

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2010	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	UKIP %	Green %	MIN %	OTH %	2010 Win	Pred Win
125	448	Oxford East	Andrew Smith	81,886	63.1	9.2	42.9	10.2	28.2	0.0	0.0	9.5	LAB	LAB
195	378	Slough	Fiona Mactaggart	77,068	61.9	24.3	46.1	2.1	20.3	0.0	0.0	7.1	LAB	LAB
237	336	Southampton Test	Alan Whitehead	71,931	61.4	23.1	38.8	5.4	24.9	0.0	0.0	7.7	LAB	LAB
241	331	Brighton Pavilion	Caroline Lucas	74,004	70.0	13.9	29.5	1.8	40.6	0.0	0.0	14.1	Green	UKIP
264	309	Southampton Itchen	John Denham	74,532	59.6	26.4	37.1	4.8	24.3	0.0	0.0	7.4	LAB	LAB
287	286	Brighton Kemptown	Simon Kirby	66,017	64.7	28.0	35.2	3.6	25.1	0.0	0.0	8.1	CON	LAB
291	282	Hove	Mike Weatherley	71,708	69.5	26.8	33.4	5.5	25.9	0.0	0.0	8.4	CON	LAB
293	280	Hastings and Rye	Amber Rudd	78,000	63.9	31.0	37.4	2.6	19.7	0.0	0.0	9.3	CON	LAB
322	251	Milton Keynes South	Iain Stewart	90,487	61.2	31.6	32.5	3.5	22.5	0.0	0.0	9.9	CON	LAB
328	245	Dover	Charlie Elphicke	71,832	70.1	33.9	33.8	2.7	20.4	0.0	0.0	9.2	CON	CON
344	229	Crawley	Henry Smith	72,781	65.3	34.7	32.6	2.1	20.2	0.0	0.0	10.5	CON	CON
346	227	Reading West	Alok Sharma	72,118	65.9	33.1	30.9	4.5	22.8	0.0	0.0	8.7	CON	CON
351	222	Chatham and Aylesford	Tracey Crouch	71,122	61.6	36.1	32.6	1.6	19.6	0.0	0.0	10.1	CON	CON
360	213	Portsmouth North	Penny Mordaunt	70,329	62.7	34.2	28.1	4.5	23.7	0.0	0.0	9.6	CON	CON
361	212	Thanet South	Laura Sandys	71,596	64.2	37.8	31.7	2.4	22.2	0.0	0.0	5.9	CON	CON
363	210	Milton Keynes North	Mark Lancaster	85,841	62.8	33.4	27.2	5.3	23.9	0.0	0.0	10.2	CON	CON
364	209	Reading East	Rob Wilson	74,922	66.7	32.5	25.8	7.6	25.5	0.0	0.0	8.6	CON	CON
366	207	Gillingham and Rainham	Rehman Chishti	70,865	66.0	36.1	28.0	3.7	21.8	0.0	0.0	10.5	CON	CON
367	205	Portsmouth South	Mike Hancock	70,242	58.7	23.3	14.2	15.4	32.9	0.0	0.0	14.2	LIB	UKIP
368	205	Gravesham	Adam Holloway	70,195	67.4	38.4	29.1	1.6	21.8	0.0	0.0	9.1	CON	CON
371	202	Rochester and Strood	Mark Reckless	73,882	64.9	39.0	28.8	2.9	18.3	0.0	0.0	11.0	CON	CON
372	201	Dartford	Gareth Johnson	76,271	65.7	38.6	27.8	2.2	20.2	0.0	0.0	11.1	CON	CON
387	186	Sittingbourne and Sheppey	Gordon Henderson	75,354	64.5	39.9	24.8	2.9	22.7	0.0	0.0	9.8	CON	CON
402	171	Canterbury	Julian Brazier	76,808	64.1	34.7	16.6	9.8	29.6	0.0	0.0	9.4	CON	CON
406	166	Eastleigh	Christopher Huhne	77,435	69.3	29.3	10.1	15.7	33.5	0.0	0.0	11.4	LIB	UKIP
413	160	Basingstoke	Maria Miller	75,470	67.1	40.3	20.7	6.4	24.8	0.0	0.0	7.8	CON	CON
417	156	Spelthorne	Kwasi Kwarteng	70,479	67.1	36.9	16.8	6.9	29.7	0.0	0.0	9.6	CON	CON
423	150	Thanet North	Roger Gale	69,432	62.4	42.4	21.8	4.2	25.1	0.0	0.0	6.5	CON	CON
424	149	Wycombe	Steven Baker	74,502	64.6	38.5	17.7	8.2	26.9	0.0	0.0	8.8	CON	CON
426	147	Oxford West and Abingdon	Nicola Blackwood	86,458	65.3	32.3	11.1	13.8	32.2	0.0	0.0	10.6	CON	CON
427	146	Worthing East and Shoreham	Tim Loughton	74,001	65.4	38.3	17.1	6.8	29.0	0.0	0.0	8.8	CON	CON
427	145	Lewes	Norman Baker	68,708	72.9	26.8	5.5	18.0	36.6	0.0	0.0	13.0	LIB	UKIP
440	133	Havant	David Willetts	69,712	63.0	40.9	18.0	5.9	26.2	0.0	0.0	9.0	CON	CON
444	129	Banbury	Tony Baldry	86,986	64.7	42.6	19.5	4.6	25.3	0.0	0.0	8.1	CON	CON
453	120	Aldershot	Gerald Howarth	71,469	63.5	36.6	12.5	10.6	29.3	0.0	0.0	11.0	CON	CON
456	117	Gosport	Caroline Dinenage	72,720	64.5	41.5	17.3	4.9	23.4	0.0	0.0	12.9	CON	CON
458	115	Isle of Wight	Andrew Turner	109,966	63.9	36.6	12.0	9.4	28.1	0.0	0.0	13.9	CON	CON
463	110	Bracknell	Phillip Lee	76,885	67.8	42.2	17.1	5.4	25.4	0.0	0.0	9.9	CON	CON
465	107	Eastbourne	Stephen Lloyd	77,840	67.0	30.7	5.3	16.0	32.7	0.0	2.5	12.8	LIB	UKIP
475	98	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	Nick Gibb	70,812	66.2	41.2	14.4	5.9	26.8	0.0	0.0	11.7	CON	CON
476	97	Ashford	Damian Green	81,269	67.9	43.9	17.0	5.6	25.9	0.0	0.0	7.5	CON	CON
482	91	Wantage	Ed Vaizey	80,456	70.0	41.7	14.3	7.8	27.8	0.0	0.0	8.3	CON	CON
485	88	Maidstone and The Weald	Helen Grant	71,041	68.9	37.9	10.2	11.2	29.8	0.0	0.0	10.9	CON	CON
487	86	Folkestone and Hythe	Damian Collins	78,003	67.7	39.3	11.2	8.8	28.6	0.0	0.0	12.1	CON	CON
495	78	Faversham and Kent Mid	Hugh Robertson	68,858	67.8	45.9	16.9	4.3	23.8	0.0	0.0	9.1	CON	CON
496	77	Aylesbury	David Lidington	77,934	68.2	41.9	13.0	8.0	29.2	0.0	0.0	7.9	CON	CON
497	76	Bexhill and Battle	Greg Barker	79,208	68.9	41.3	12.3	7.8	22.2	0.0	4.9	11.4	CON	CON
500	73	Worthing West	Peter Bottomley	75,945	64.7	41.5	12.2	7.8	29.6	0.0	0.0	8.9	CON	CON
512	61	Fareham	Mark Hoban	75,878	71.6	45.0	14.6	6.1	25.7	0.0	0.0	8.7	CON	CON
517	56	Reigate	Crispin Blunt	71,604	69.8	43.1	11.7	7.1	27.2	0.0	0.0	10.8	CON	CON
519	54	Woking	Jonathan Lord	73,838	71.5	40.1	8.5	11.8	29.9	0.0	0.0	9.7	CON	CON
521	52	Runnymede and Weybridge	Philip Hammond	72,566	66.4	45.6	13.7	5.1	27.2	0.0	0.0	8.4	CON	CON
522	51	Wokingham	John Redwood	76,219	71.5	42.5	10.5	7.8	26.0	0.0	0.0	13.2	CON	CON
524	49	New Forest East	Julian Lewis	72,858	68.7	42.6	10.2	8.8	29.7	0.0	0.0	8.7	CON	CON
525	48	Winchester	Steve Brine	73,806	75.8	38.4	5.9	14.2	30.5	0.0	0.0	10.9	CON	CON
527	46	Romsey and Southampton North	Caroline Nokes	66,901	73.2	39.6	6.8	13.5	30.4	0.0	0.0	9.8	CON	CON
531	42	Sevenoaks	Michael Fallon	69,591	71.0	46.5	13.6	5.0	23.1	0.0	0.0	11.8	CON	CON
532	41	Sussex Mid	Nicholas Soames	77,182	72.4	40.5	7.0	11.9	29.6	0.0	0.0	11.0	CON	CON
533	40	Epsom and Ewell	Chris Grayling	78,104	70.4	45.9	12.2	7.3	26.4	0.0	0.0	8.1	CON	CON
537	36	Chichester	Andrew Tyrie	81,462	69.7	45.1	10.8	7.6	28.8	0.0	0.0	7.7	CON	CON
541	32	Hampshire North West	Sir George Young	76,040	70.1	48.0	13.4	5.9	25.5	0.0	0.0	7.2	CON	CON
542	31	Henley	John Howell	75,005	71.4	45.9	11.3	6.6	26.3	0.0	0.0	10.0	CON	CON
543	30	Horsham	Francis Maude	76,835	72.7	42.5	7.9	9.6	29.8	0.0	0.0	10.2	CON	CON
544	29	Tonbridge and Malling	Sir John Stanley	71,790	71.5	47.6	13.0	5.5	24.8	0.0	0.0	9.2	CON	CON
545	28	Tunbridge Wells	Greg Clark	72,042	69.8	45.9	11.2	6.7	26.5	0.0	0.0	9.6	CON	CON
548	25	Witney	David Cameron	78,766	73.3	48.5	13.4	4.2	25.2	0.0	0.0	8.8	CON	CON
551	22	Wealden	Charles Hendry	76,537	71.8	46.3	10.0	6.7	29.0	0.0	0.0	8.1	CON	CON
554	19	Surrey Heath	Michael Gove	77,690	70.0	47.3	10.6	6.9	27.7	0.0	0.0	7.5	CON	CON
556	17	Buckingham	John Bercow	74,996	64.5	37.1	0.1	0.0	24.8	0.0	21.4	16.6	CON	CON
557	16	Surrey East	Sam Gyimah	76,855	71.1	46.4	9.4	6.9	28.3	0.0	0.0	9.0	CON	CON
558	15	Esher and Walton	Dominic Raab	75,338	72.4	48.6	11.0	6.5	24.2	0.0	0.0	9.7	CON	CON
559	14	Guildford	Anne Milton	77,082	72.1	43.1	5.5	12.6	28.8	0.0	0.0	10.0	CON	CON
560	13	Hampshire East	Damian Hinds	72,250	71.0	46.5	8.3	8.9	26.2	0.0	0.0	10.2	CON	CON
561	12	New Forest West	Desmond Swayne	68,332	69.6	48.5	10.2	5.9	27.8	0.0	0.0	7.7	CON	CON
562	11	Arundel and South Downs	Nick Herbert	77,564	72.2	47.4	9.0	7.8	27.9	0.0	0.0	7.8	CON	CON
563	10	Beaconsfield	Dominic Grieve	74,982	70.0	50.7	12.0	4.3	24.8	0.0	0.0	8.3	CON	CON
564	9	Meon Valley	George Hollingbery	70,488	72.7	45.9	6.8	9.8	27.1	0.0	0.0	10.4	CON	CON
565	8	Mole Valley	Sir Paul Beresford	72,612	74.8	47.2	7.4	8.2	28.9	0.0	0.0	8.4	CON	CON
567	6	Hampshire North East	James Arbuthnot	72,196	73.3	50.2	10.1	6.8	25.4	0.0	0.0	7.5	CON	CON
568	5	Windsor	Adam Afriyie	69,511	71.3	50.5	10.2	5.5	24.1	0.0	0.0	9.7	CON	CON
569	4	Newbury	Richard Benyon	78,329	74.8	46.1	4.7	11.0	28.6	0.0	0.0	9.6	CON	CON
570	3	Maidenhead	Theresa May	72,844	73.7	49.1	7.4	7.9	25.4	0.0	0.0	10.2	CON	CON
571	2	Surrey South West	Jeremy Hunt	77,980	73.4	48.3	6.4	8.8	26.7	0.0	0.0	9.8	CON	CON
572	1	Chesham and Amersham	Cheryl Gillan	70,333	74.6	50.0	6.0	8.1	27.7	0.0	0.0	8.3	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.

User-defined Prediction

National Prediction: Labour majority 4

Table of all seat results in South East

South East Prediction

List of South East seats with predictions