| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 27.6% | 15 | 20.1% | 0 | 9 | -9 | 6 |
| LAB | 34.0% | 38 | 18.2% | 0 | 33 | -33 | 5 |
| LIB | 8.8% | 2 | 11.2% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 2 |
| Reform | 18.1% | 0 | 34.8% | 40 | 0 | +40 | 40 |
| Green | 6.6% | 1 | 11.1% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| Other | 4.9% | 1 | 4.6% | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
This page shows all the seats in West Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Birmingham Ladywood' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Shropshire North', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Solihull West and Shirley (prediction: CON), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Birmingham Selly Oak (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 396 | Birmingham Ladywood | Shabana Mahmood | 83,693 | 43.7 | 6.7 | 24.6 | 4.3 | 11.0 | 20.3 | 33.1 | 0.0 | LAB | MIN |
| 54 | 379 | Warwick and Leamington | Matt Western | 76,294 | 64.5 | 12.2 | 37.8 | 8.1 | 27.5 | 10.1 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 64 | 369 | Coventry South | Zarah Sultana | 76,262 | 56.0 | 6.1 | 45.9 | 2.6 | 37.8 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 68 | 364 | Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley | Tahir Ali | 76,936 | 54.1 | 11.0 | 19.4 | 7.7 | 12.7 | 20.0 | 29.2 | 0.0 | LAB | MIN |
| 76 | 357 | Birmingham Edgbaston | Preet Kaur Gill | 71,787 | 52.1 | 13.8 | 32.9 | 8.1 | 27.5 | 12.7 | 5.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 77 | 356 | Shrewsbury | Julia Buckley | 76,633 | 67.3 | 6.1 | 45.0 | 4.0 | 39.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 95 | 337 | Birmingham Perry Barr | Ayoub Khan | 76,350 | 49.1 | 11.0 | 19.4 | 4.1 | 17.0 | 17.1 | 31.5 | 0.0 | MIN | MIN |
| 106 | 327 | Birmingham Selly Oak | Alistair Carns | 75,678 | 50.8 | 12.2 | 29.0 | 7.6 | 28.6 | 16.6 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 108 | 325 | Coventry East | Mary Creagh | 75,801 | 48.8 | 5.1 | 41.8 | 1.9 | 41.9 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 113 | 320 | Coventry North West | Taiwo Owatemi | 75,057 | 56.0 | 5.4 | 41.9 | 2.4 | 43.0 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 127 | 306 | Smethwick | Gurinder Singh Josan | 72,863 | 48.2 | 9.8 | 31.8 | 5.8 | 33.8 | 12.9 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 132 | 301 | Wolverhampton West | Warinder Juss | 77,851 | 56.1 | 15.0 | 30.9 | 6.6 | 33.4 | 10.2 | 3.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 134 | 299 | Worcester | Tom Collins | 74,931 | 61.4 | 10.1 | 34.7 | 6.4 | 37.6 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 146 | 287 | West Bromwich | Sarah Coombes | 74,026 | 49.3 | 5.0 | 40.2 | 2.2 | 45.5 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 164 | 269 | Birmingham Yardley | Jess Phillips | 73,203 | 49.4 | 12.9 | 18.4 | 9.1 | 26.5 | 16.9 | 16.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 194 | 239 | Telford | Shaun Davies | 73,808 | 55.2 | 4.8 | 38.1 | 2.1 | 49.2 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 210 | 223 | Rugby | John Anthony Slinger | 74,901 | 65.4 | 21.6 | 21.1 | 10.7 | 34.2 | 9.2 | 3.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 211 | 221 | Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge | Gavin Williamson | 71,561 | 59.8 | 42.1 | 13.1 | 8.5 | 26.7 | 7.9 | 1.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 214 | 219 | Wolverhampton South East | Pat McFadden | 77,473 | 43.1 | 4.6 | 35.6 | 1.5 | 49.4 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 221 | 211 | Kenilworth and Southam | Jeremy Wright | 74,923 | 71.2 | 32.7 | 13.4 | 16.4 | 27.6 | 8.4 | 1.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 246 | 187 | Birmingham Erdington | Paulette Hamilton | 77,463 | 43.6 | 13.3 | 23.4 | 6.4 | 39.1 | 13.2 | 4.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 250 | 183 | Stafford | Leigh Ingham | 70,608 | 65.2 | 22.5 | 19.6 | 8.6 | 35.5 | 10.3 | 3.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 252 | 181 | Birmingham Northfield | Laurence Turner | 74,048 | 50.8 | 14.5 | 23.9 | 7.8 | 39.9 | 10.4 | 3.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 282 | 151 | Worcestershire West | Harriett Baldwin | 79,242 | 69.0 | 26.7 | 10.7 | 20.3 | 29.1 | 11.5 | 1.8 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 284 | 149 | Walsall and Bloxwich | Valerie Vaz | 75,968 | 49.0 | 17.0 | 14.6 | 4.3 | 33.0 | 14.6 | 16.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 286 | 147 | Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North | Liam Byrne | 77,737 | 43.9 | 13.1 | 15.3 | 6.0 | 34.6 | 15.2 | 15.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 287 | 146 | Lichfield | Dave Robertson | 76,118 | 64.5 | 25.1 | 17.7 | 10.7 | 37.0 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 302 | 131 | Stourbridge | Cat Eccles | 68,311 | 58.4 | 22.1 | 18.2 | 9.1 | 38.6 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 309 | 124 | Stoke-on-Trent Central | Gareth Snell | 73,693 | 47.9 | 13.2 | 22.0 | 6.4 | 43.1 | 11.0 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 316 | 117 | Newcastle-under-Lyme | Adam Jogee | 67,839 | 58.4 | 20.6 | 18.4 | 8.9 | 40.0 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 321 | 112 | Wrekin, The | Mark Pritchard | 78,942 | 63.4 | 24.3 | 15.7 | 10.9 | 37.6 | 8.6 | 2.8 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 322 | 111 | Redditch | Christopher James Bloore | 71,038 | 59.7 | 21.2 | 18.0 | 9.2 | 39.9 | 8.5 | 3.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 324 | 109 | Halesowen | Alex Ballinger | 68,549 | 56.3 | 21.2 | 17.4 | 8.8 | 39.6 | 9.9 | 3.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 325 | 108 | Burton and Uttoxeter | Jacob Collier | 77,994 | 58.5 | 21.1 | 17.8 | 8.7 | 40.1 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 326 | 106 | Solihull West and Shirley | Neil Shastri-Hurst | 71,813 | 65.3 | 38.2 | 9.8 | 10.1 | 32.2 | 7.9 | 1.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 330 | 103 | Hereford and South Herefordshire | Jesse Norman | 72,203 | 63.1 | 25.7 | 14.3 | 11.3 | 37.0 | 8.9 | 2.8 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 343 | 90 | Nuneaton | Jodie Gosling | 71,662 | 57.5 | 19.9 | 17.4 | 7.7 | 41.1 | 10.4 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 344 | 88 | Sutton Coldfield | Andrew Mitchell | 74,080 | 65.2 | 43.4 | 10.1 | 5.1 | 33.8 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 351 | 81 | Herefordshire North | Ellie Chowns | 72,797 | 69.2 | 22.2 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 29.5 | 32.1 | 4.3 | 0.0 | Green | Green |
| 356 | 77 | Stoke-on-Trent North | David Williams | 69,790 | 51.8 | 16.4 | 20.0 | 7.8 | 45.3 | 7.9 | 2.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 360 | 73 | Shropshire South | Stuart Anderson | 76,723 | 67.3 | 23.0 | 9.7 | 23.8 | 35.3 | 6.5 | 1.7 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 362 | 71 | Bromsgrove | Bradley Anthony Thomas | 76,468 | 65.9 | 35.3 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 36.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 368 | 65 | Staffordshire Moorlands | Karen Bradley | 69,892 | 62.0 | 27.9 | 15.1 | 7.2 | 41.3 | 7.0 | 1.4 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 371 | 62 | Tamworth | Sarah Edwards | 75,059 | 58.3 | 20.8 | 17.3 | 8.2 | 43.5 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 379 | 54 | Wolverhampton North East | Sureena Brackenridge | 70,715 | 47.1 | 17.1 | 18.0 | 7.1 | 45.4 | 9.1 | 3.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 386 | 47 | Tipton and Wednesbury | Antonia Bance | 74,100 | 43.0 | 14.3 | 18.8 | 7.2 | 46.8 | 9.9 | 3.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 391 | 42 | Warwickshire North and Bedworth | Rachel Margaret Taylor | 69,752 | 58.7 | 21.0 | 16.1 | 7.9 | 44.7 | 7.8 | 2.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 392 | 40 | Stratford-on-Avon | Manuela Perteghella | 75,714 | 69.9 | 15.2 | 4.9 | 39.3 | 33.9 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 395 | 37 | Meriden and Solihull East | Saqib Bhatti | 73,659 | 59.8 | 41.1 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 38.0 | 6.1 | 1.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 398 | 35 | Dudley | Sonia Kumar | 70,151 | 51.0 | 19.8 | 15.0 | 7.4 | 45.4 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 400 | 33 | Stoke-on-Trent South | Allison Gardner | 68,263 | 60.0 | 32.2 | 11.3 | 6.0 | 41.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 401 | 32 | Cannock Chase | Josh Newbury | 76,974 | 55.8 | 19.2 | 15.9 | 7.0 | 46.9 | 8.3 | 2.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 407 | 25 | Droitwich and Evesham | Nigel Huddleston | 76,624 | 64.7 | 40.8 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 39.2 | 6.1 | 1.3 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 415 | 18 | Wyre Forest | Mark Garnier | 77,394 | 58.3 | 33.5 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 42.8 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 419 | 14 | Kingswinford and South Staffordshire | Mike Wood | 71,662 | 63.0 | 40.7 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 41.7 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 424 | 9 | Aldridge-Brownhills | Wendy Morton | 70,871 | 57.7 | 38.9 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 43.8 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 424 | 8 | Shropshire North | Helen Morgan | 77,594 | 63.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 50.0 | 39.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.