West Midlands: Majority Sorted Seats

West Midlands Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 53.4%44 51.6%04-440
LAB 33.9%15 37.2%40+419
LIB 7.9%0 5.1%00+00
Brexit 1.4%0 0.8%00+00
Green 3.0%0 3.7%00+00
Other 0.5%0 1.6%00+00

This page shows all the seats in West Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Birmingham Ladywood, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Staffordshire South, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Telford (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to West Bromwich East (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of West Midlands seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Brexit
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2019
Win
Pred
Win
7557Birmingham Ladywood Shabana Mahmood74,91256.210.381.63.41.22.70.00.8LABLAB
12552Birmingham Hodge Hill Liam Byrne78,29557.513.680.81.12.01.20.01.3LABLAB
26538Birmingham Hall Green Tahir Ali80,28365.912.770.74.41.02.28.10.9LABLAB
61503Birmingham Perry Barr Khalid Mahmood72,00658.524.966.22.92.02.70.01.3LABLAB
73491Warley John Spellar62,35759.726.062.72.74.03.30.01.2LABLAB
89475Birmingham Yardley Jess Phillips74,70457.128.059.45.63.22.40.01.5LABLAB
95469Birmingham Selly Oak Steve McCabe82,66559.829.159.54.11.84.50.01.1LABLAB
122442Coventry North East Colleen Fletcher76,00658.533.556.23.02.93.30.01.1LABLAB
139425Birmingham Edgbaston Preet Gill68,82861.535.053.85.11.53.40.01.2LABLAB
167397Birmingham Erdington Jack Dromey66,14853.338.253.42.42.52.50.01.0LABLAB
178386Walsall South Valerie Vaz68,02462.439.252.22.42.42.20.01.7LABLAB
192372Wolverhampton South East Pat McFadden62,88353.240.949.92.03.82.30.01.1LABLAB
198366Warwick and Leamington Matt Western76,36271.040.447.55.90.93.70.01.6LABLAB
201363Coventry South Zarah Sultana70,97963.540.647.24.81.93.30.02.2LABLAB
204360Coventry North West Taiwo Owatemi75,24763.441.547.43.62.53.80.01.1LABLAB
217347Stoke-on-Trent Central Jo Gideon55,41957.943.546.72.23.23.30.01.1CONLAB
223341Birmingham Northfield Gary Sambrook73,69458.544.545.82.92.32.90.01.6CONLAB
224340Wolverhampton South West Stuart Anderson60,53468.046.447.33.21.50.70.00.9CONLAB
225339West Bromwich East Nicola Richards62,04658.044.945.42.32.52.40.02.5CONLAB
267297West Bromwich West Shaun Bailey64,51753.448.742.71.73.22.60.01.0CONCON
272292Wolverhampton North East Jane Stevenson61,66055.649.842.71.82.42.40.00.9CONCON
277287Worcester Robin Walker73,48569.348.940.44.60.04.00.02.1CONCON
285279Stoke-on-Trent North Jonathan Gullis68,29858.850.440.12.03.62.00.01.9CONCON
291273Newcastle-under-Lyme Aaron Bell68,21165.650.639.43.42.62.90.01.1CONCON
301263Shrewsbury and Atcham Daniel Kawczynski82,23871.850.737.16.40.03.80.02.1CONCON
334230Telford Lucy Allan68,92162.157.836.84.00.00.60.00.8CONCON
335229Rugby Mark Pawsey72,29270.355.734.35.30.03.70.01.0CONCON
345219Stafford Theo Clarke72,57270.556.833.24.00.05.20.00.8CONCON
348216Stoke-on-Trent South Jack Brereton64,49161.460.335.92.60.00.50.00.7CONCON
349215Halesowen and Rowley Regis James Morris68,30062.058.634.12.60.02.70.01.9CONCON
353211Nuneaton Marcus Jones70,22664.358.833.72.60.04.20.00.7CONCON
357207Stourbridge Suzanne Webb69,89165.458.433.13.50.02.80.02.1CONCON
358206Burton Kate Griffiths75,03665.058.833.43.50.03.50.00.8CONCON
378186Dudley North Marco Longhi61,93659.261.233.62.10.02.40.00.6CONCON
393171Walsall North Eddie Hughes67,17754.462.033.12.20.02.10.00.6CONCON
411153Sutton Coldfield Andrew Mitchell75,63869.258.527.67.80.04.80.01.3CONCON
415149Solihull Julian Knight78,76070.356.525.411.50.04.80.01.7CONCON
419145Redditch Rachel Maclean65,39167.461.529.74.20.03.70.00.9CONCON
425139Kenilworth and Southam Jeremy Wright68,15477.255.923.612.20.05.70.02.7CONCON
435129Staffordshire Moorlands Karen Bradley65,48566.762.729.53.60.03.40.00.8CONCON
436128Wrekin, The Mark Pritchard70,69369.261.628.35.30.03.70.01.0CONCON
444120Hereford and South Herefordshire Jesse Norman72,08568.959.425.78.00.05.70.01.3CONCON
461103Stone Bill Cash69,37871.861.726.85.70.04.70.01.0CONCON
463101Warwickshire North Craig Tracey70,27165.364.029.02.90.03.30.00.7CONCON
46599Shropshire North Owen Paterson83,25867.960.925.76.40.03.90.03.1CONCON
47886Bromsgrove Sajid Javid75,07872.361.525.08.00.04.20.01.3CONCON
48084Meriden Saqib Bhatti85,36863.461.624.96.60.05.70.01.1CONCON
48381Worcestershire West Harriett Baldwin76,24175.558.821.911.60.05.90.01.7CONCON
49272Wyre Forest Mark Garnier78,07764.863.325.95.20.04.60.01.0CONCON
50361Lichfield Michael Fabricant76,61670.562.724.46.70.04.00.02.2CONCON
50559Tamworth Christopher Pincher71,57264.364.526.13.40.02.60.03.5CONCON
50856Dudley South Mike Wood60,73160.266.027.62.80.02.90.00.7CONCON
51747Cannock Chase Amanda Milling74,81361.966.526.60.00.06.60.00.4CONCON
53133Stratford-on-Avon Nadhim Zahawi74,03774.458.717.217.10.05.10.01.9CONCON
53529Ludlow Philip Dunne69,44472.362.220.310.90.04.90.01.6CONCON
54519Herefordshire North Bill Wiggin70,25272.661.217.99.20.010.30.01.4CONCON
54816Worcestershire Mid Nigel Huddleston78,22071.864.820.77.40.04.70.02.4CONCON
55212Aldridge-Brownhills Wendy Morton60,13865.468.923.03.90.02.50.01.7CONCON
5586Staffordshire South Gavin Williamson73,66867.971.219.34.20.04.50.00.9CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.