West Midlands: Majority Sorted Seats

West Midlands Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 53.4%44 38.9%010-1034
LAB 33.9%15 40.1%100+1025
LIB 7.9%0 10.1%00+00
Reform 1.4%0 2.9%00+00
Green 3.0%0 6.2%00+00
Other 0.5%0 1.8%00+00

This page shows all the seats in West Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Birmingham Ladywood, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Staffordshire South, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Telford (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Birmingham Northfield (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of West Midlands seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2019
Win
Pred
Win
15540Birmingham Ladywood Shabana Mahmood74,91256.29.767.89.42.49.70.01.0LABLAB
31524Birmingham Hodge Hill Liam Byrne78,29557.514.864.27.64.37.90.01.1LABLAB
40515Birmingham Hall Green Tahir Ali80,28365.913.860.711.43.79.10.01.3LABLAB
78477Birmingham Perry Barr Khalid Mahmood72,00658.520.458.78.53.08.00.01.5LABLAB
96459Warley John Spellar62,35759.721.957.07.93.77.70.01.8LABLAB
97458Birmingham Selly Oak Steve McCabe82,66559.821.756.69.52.38.20.01.6LABLAB
125430Birmingham Yardley Jess Phillips74,70457.123.152.812.63.76.30.01.4LABLAB
146409Coventry North East Colleen Fletcher76,00658.526.153.48.23.37.30.01.8LABLAB
155400Birmingham Edgbaston Preet Gill68,82861.525.752.610.12.47.70.01.6LABLAB
186369Birmingham Erdington Jack Dromey66,14853.329.251.87.63.36.40.01.7LABLAB
202353Warwick and Leamington Matt Western76,36271.029.148.511.22.07.40.01.8LABLAB
212343Wolverhampton South East Pat McFadden62,88353.230.949.57.13.86.30.02.3LABLAB
214341Coventry South Zarah Sultana70,97963.530.048.310.02.87.00.01.8LABLAB
218337Walsall South Valerie Vaz68,02462.431.649.37.43.86.30.01.6LABLAB
222333Coventry North West Taiwo Owatemi75,24763.431.348.18.73.07.00.01.9LABLAB
228327Birmingham Northfield Gary Sambrook73,69458.532.947.87.93.16.30.02.0CONLAB
238317Stoke-on-Trent Central Jo Gideon55,41957.933.447.37.43.86.20.01.9CONLAB
253302Wolverhampton South West Stuart Anderson60,53468.035.047.08.22.75.40.01.8CONLAB
254301West Bromwich East Nicola Richards62,04658.034.546.37.33.86.00.02.2CONLAB
284271West Bromwich West Shaun Bailey64,51753.436.744.66.74.15.90.01.9CONLAB
287268Wolverhampton North East Jane Stevenson61,66055.637.144.96.83.55.60.02.0CONLAB
288267Worcester Robin Walker73,48569.336.043.79.42.36.70.01.9CONLAB
311244Newcastle-under-Lyme Aaron Bell68,21165.638.642.38.33.35.50.02.0CONLAB
316239Stoke-on-Trent North Jonathan Gullis68,29858.839.342.36.94.35.10.02.1CONLAB
319236Shrewsbury and Atcham Daniel Kawczynski82,23871.837.840.311.62.26.10.02.0CONLAB
326229Telford Lucy Allan68,92162.141.441.08.42.84.60.01.8CONCON
347208Rugby Mark Pawsey72,29270.341.338.410.02.56.00.01.8CONCON
358197Stafford Theo Clarke72,57270.542.338.18.62.46.70.01.8CONCON
369186Halesowen and Rowley Regis James Morris68,30062.043.938.67.33.15.30.01.9CONCON
370185Nuneaton Marcus Jones70,22664.343.638.37.32.86.20.01.8CONCON
375180Stoke-on-Trent South Jack Brereton64,49161.444.939.27.13.04.10.01.7CONCON
387168Stourbridge Suzanne Webb69,89165.444.237.58.13.05.30.01.9CONCON
388167Burton Kate Griffiths75,03665.044.237.58.03.05.70.01.7CONCON
390165Walsall North Eddie Hughes67,17754.445.038.16.93.35.00.01.8CONCON
407148Dudley North Marco Longhi61,93659.245.737.76.63.25.00.01.7CONCON
421134Sutton Coldfield Andrew Mitchell75,63869.243.433.812.52.36.30.01.7CONCON
425130Redditch Rachel Maclean65,39167.445.635.48.72.85.70.01.7CONCON
435120Solihull Julian Knight78,76070.341.530.318.42.45.80.01.6CONCON
437118Kenilworth and Southam Jeremy Wright68,15477.241.730.317.52.16.50.01.9CONCON
440115Wrekin, The Mark Pritchard70,69369.245.934.39.82.75.60.01.7CONCON
450105Hereford and South Herefordshire Jesse Norman72,08568.943.931.813.42.66.50.01.8CONCON
45798Staffordshire Moorlands Karen Bradley65,48566.747.434.88.12.85.10.01.9CONCON
45897Meriden Saqib Bhatti85,36863.445.232.411.32.66.70.01.8CONCON
46095Shropshire North Owen Paterson83,25867.945.732.811.02.85.60.02.2CONCON
46194Warwickshire North Craig Tracey70,27165.347.834.97.33.05.30.01.9CONCON
47580Tamworth Christopher Pincher71,57264.347.733.88.13.15.00.02.4CONCON
47976Stone Bill Cash69,37871.847.132.710.12.65.70.01.8CONCON
48174Wyre Forest Mark Garnier78,07764.847.432.99.32.85.80.01.8CONCON
48570Cannock Chase Amanda Milling74,81361.948.834.15.33.16.90.01.9CONCON
48669Bromsgrove Sajid Javid75,07872.346.231.512.52.45.60.01.8CONCON
49065Dudley South Mike Wood60,73160.248.933.87.43.25.00.01.7CONCON
50055Lichfield Michael Fabricant76,61670.547.231.411.22.65.50.02.0CONCON
51243Worcestershire West Harriett Baldwin76,24175.544.528.217.02.36.30.01.7CONCON
52728Stratford-on-Avon Nadhim Zahawi74,03774.444.125.420.82.25.70.01.7CONCON
53124Ludlow Philip Dunne69,44472.346.927.116.22.55.60.01.8CONCON
53223Herefordshire North Bill Wiggin70,25272.646.226.314.42.58.80.01.8CONCON
53421Worcestershire Mid Nigel Huddleston78,22071.849.028.512.12.75.70.02.0CONCON
54114Aldridge-Brownhills Wendy Morton60,13865.451.730.48.33.14.50.02.0CONCON
5487Staffordshire South Gavin Williamson73,66867.953.627.78.53.05.30.01.9CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.