| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 27.6% | 15 | 21.9% | 1 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| LAB | 34.0% | 38 | 24.2% | 1 | 20 | -19 | 19 |
| LIB | 8.8% | 2 | 8.2% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 2 |
| Reform | 18.1% | 0 | 27.7% | 23 | 0 | +23 | 23 |
| Green | 6.6% | 1 | 9.7% | 1 | 1 | +0 | 1 |
| Other | 4.9% | 1 | 8.3% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in West Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Aldridge-Brownhills', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Burton and Uttoxeter (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 321 | Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley | Tahir Ali | 76,936 | 54.1 | 9.1 | 33.0 | 6.4 | 15.0 | 25.9 | 10.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 89 | 309 | Birmingham Ladywood | Shabana Mahmood | 83,693 | 43.7 | 5.8 | 26.5 | 3.9 | 9.9 | 35.6 | 18.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Green |
| 90 | 309 | Warwick and Leamington | Matt Western | 76,294 | 64.5 | 17.4 | 37.8 | 6.9 | 21.8 | 10.4 | 5.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 107 | 292 | Birmingham Perry Barr | Ayoub Khan | 76,350 | 49.1 | 10.3 | 28.2 | 5.2 | 14.0 | 18.7 | 23.6 | 0.0 | MIN | LAB |
| 118 | 281 | Birmingham Selly Oak | Alistair Carns | 75,678 | 50.8 | 11.7 | 33.6 | 5.2 | 20.3 | 21.7 | 7.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 138 | 261 | Smethwick | Gurinder Singh Josan | 72,863 | 48.2 | 10.2 | 33.6 | 3.7 | 22.0 | 20.2 | 10.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 155 | 244 | Coventry East | Mary Creagh | 75,801 | 48.8 | 11.5 | 33.7 | 3.8 | 23.6 | 16.6 | 10.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 157 | 242 | Birmingham Edgbaston | Preet Kaur Gill | 71,787 | 52.1 | 19.0 | 32.7 | 6.5 | 22.9 | 12.6 | 6.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 174 | 225 | Wolverhampton South East | Pat McFadden | 77,473 | 43.1 | 4.6 | 43.0 | 0.9 | 34.3 | 4.4 | 12.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 176 | 223 | Worcester | Tom Collins | 74,931 | 61.4 | 6.1 | 45.0 | 1.8 | 36.5 | 3.0 | 7.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 186 | 213 | Birmingham Erdington | Paulette Hamilton | 77,463 | 43.6 | 5.1 | 43.6 | 1.2 | 36.4 | 4.3 | 9.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 187 | 212 | Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North | Liam Byrne | 77,737 | 43.9 | 6.5 | 37.0 | 1.8 | 29.8 | 9.3 | 15.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 188 | 211 | West Bromwich | Sarah Coombes | 74,026 | 49.3 | 5.6 | 42.5 | 1.2 | 35.3 | 3.5 | 12.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 190 | 209 | Coventry North West | Taiwo Owatemi | 75,057 | 56.0 | 6.1 | 44.2 | 1.5 | 37.1 | 3.1 | 7.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 197 | 202 | Wolverhampton West | Warinder Juss | 77,851 | 56.1 | 21.1 | 31.6 | 5.0 | 24.9 | 9.9 | 7.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 210 | 189 | Birmingham Yardley | Jess Phillips | 73,203 | 49.4 | 5.9 | 36.8 | 3.1 | 31.9 | 5.4 | 16.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 214 | 185 | Stoke-on-Trent Central | Gareth Snell | 73,693 | 47.9 | 4.7 | 41.9 | 1.0 | 37.1 | 3.8 | 11.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 232 | 167 | Coventry South | Zarah Sultana | 76,262 | 56.0 | 18.7 | 26.6 | 6.3 | 23.7 | 13.0 | 11.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 243 | 156 | Shrewsbury | Julia Buckley | 76,633 | 67.3 | 6.7 | 42.4 | 3.0 | 40.1 | 1.6 | 6.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 252 | 147 | Telford | Shaun Davies | 73,808 | 55.2 | 5.2 | 39.6 | 1.2 | 37.9 | 2.8 | 13.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 255 | 143 | Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge | Gavin Williamson | 71,561 | 59.8 | 34.9 | 24.1 | 6.8 | 23.3 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 275 | 124 | Stafford | Leigh Ingham | 70,608 | 65.2 | 20.3 | 29.8 | 5.4 | 30.6 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 281 | 117 | Sutton Coldfield | Andrew Mitchell | 74,080 | 65.2 | 33.3 | 22.7 | 6.8 | 24.1 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 290 | 109 | Rugby | John Anthony Slinger | 74,901 | 65.4 | 25.1 | 25.9 | 6.7 | 27.9 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 297 | 102 | Birmingham Northfield | Laurence Turner | 74,048 | 50.8 | 8.5 | 37.3 | 2.0 | 40.0 | 3.5 | 8.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 303 | 96 | Walsall and Bloxwich | Valerie Vaz | 75,968 | 49.0 | 8.7 | 35.7 | 1.6 | 39.3 | 4.5 | 10.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 308 | 90 | Kenilworth and Southam | Jeremy Wright | 74,923 | 71.2 | 29.8 | 20.0 | 14.3 | 24.0 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 312 | 86 | Solihull West and Shirley | Neil Shastri-Hurst | 71,813 | 65.3 | 30.2 | 20.1 | 11.9 | 24.5 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 321 | 78 | Wrekin, The | Mark Pritchard | 78,942 | 63.4 | 26.0 | 21.1 | 9.5 | 26.3 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 323 | 75 | Bromsgrove | Bradley Anthony Thomas | 76,468 | 65.9 | 27.5 | 21.0 | 11.9 | 26.4 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 326 | 73 | Burton and Uttoxeter | Jacob Collier | 77,994 | 58.5 | 22.9 | 24.8 | 4.9 | 30.5 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 327 | 72 | Redditch | Christopher James Bloore | 71,038 | 59.7 | 23.8 | 24.4 | 5.2 | 30.0 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 328 | 71 | Nuneaton | Jodie Gosling | 71,662 | 57.5 | 20.5 | 24.3 | 5.5 | 30.0 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 341 | 58 | Stourbridge | Cat Eccles | 68,311 | 58.4 | 25.0 | 24.8 | 5.5 | 31.2 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 342 | 57 | Newcastle-under-Lyme | Adam Jogee | 67,839 | 58.4 | 22.4 | 24.4 | 7.1 | 30.9 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 349 | 50 | Lichfield | Dave Robertson | 76,118 | 64.5 | 26.6 | 23.8 | 6.8 | 30.9 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 356 | 43 | Wolverhampton North East | Sureena Brackenridge | 70,715 | 47.1 | 19.6 | 23.5 | 5.5 | 31.3 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 358 | 41 | Wyre Forest | Mark Garnier | 77,394 | 58.3 | 26.9 | 22.4 | 7.2 | 30.4 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 359 | 40 | Tipton and Wednesbury | Antonia Bance | 74,100 | 43.0 | 9.9 | 30.5 | 2.0 | 38.7 | 4.7 | 14.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 363 | 36 | Hereford and South Herefordshire | Jesse Norman | 72,203 | 63.1 | 25.6 | 20.6 | 10.4 | 29.3 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 369 | 30 | Halesowen | Alex Ballinger | 68,549 | 56.3 | 22.1 | 23.0 | 7.3 | 32.4 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 374 | 25 | Stoke-on-Trent North | David Williams | 69,790 | 51.8 | 12.5 | 30.2 | 3.0 | 40.3 | 4.0 | 9.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 377 | 22 | Staffordshire Moorlands | Karen Bradley | 69,892 | 62.0 | 26.2 | 21.2 | 5.0 | 32.1 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 378 | 21 | Tamworth | Sarah Edwards | 75,059 | 58.3 | 23.6 | 22.8 | 4.7 | 33.6 | 5.9 | 9.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 379 | 20 | Stoke-on-Trent South | Allison Gardner | 68,263 | 60.0 | 27.1 | 22.8 | 5.4 | 33.6 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 381 | 17 | Stratford-on-Avon | Manuela Perteghella | 75,714 | 69.9 | 26.2 | 10.5 | 33.0 | 21.7 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 385 | 14 | Cannock Chase | Josh Newbury | 76,974 | 55.8 | 19.9 | 22.9 | 5.0 | 35.0 | 7.3 | 9.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 389 | 10 | Dudley | Sonia Kumar | 70,151 | 51.0 | 20.8 | 21.6 | 5.1 | 34.7 | 7.4 | 10.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 391 | 8 | Warwickshire North and Bedworth | Rachel Margaret Taylor | 69,752 | 58.7 | 24.7 | 22.0 | 4.9 | 35.2 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 394 | 4 | Shropshire South | Stuart Anderson | 76,723 | 67.3 | 28.3 | 12.4 | 21.1 | 27.1 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 395 | 3 | Meriden and Solihull East | Saqib Bhatti | 73,659 | 59.8 | 42.3 | 12.6 | 4.5 | 29.8 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 395 | 3 | Worcestershire West | Harriett Baldwin | 79,242 | 69.0 | 43.7 | 9.2 | 7.2 | 30.1 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 395 | 3 | Shropshire North | Helen Morgan | 77,594 | 63.9 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 44.0 | 28.4 | 2.5 | 5.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 395 | 3 | Droitwich and Evesham | Nigel Huddleston | 76,624 | 64.7 | 44.3 | 9.9 | 4.1 | 32.3 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 395 | 3 | Herefordshire North | Ellie Chowns | 72,797 | 69.2 | 41.3 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 30.7 | 10.2 | 6.3 | 0.0 | Green | CON |
| 395 | 3 | Kingswinford and South Staffordshire | Mike Wood | 71,662 | 63.0 | 44.2 | 10.3 | 2.9 | 34.0 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 395 | 3 | Aldridge-Brownhills | Wendy Morton | 70,871 | 57.7 | 44.1 | 9.9 | 2.8 | 34.1 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.