West Midlands: Majority Sorted Seats

West Midlands Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 49.0%35 43.9%02-233
LAB 42.5%24 40.4%20+226
LIB 4.4%0 5.5%00+00
UKIP 1.8%0 5.9%00+00
Green 1.7%0 3.5%00+00
Minor 0.6%0 0.8%00+00

This page shows all the seats in West Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Birmingham Ladywood, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Staffordshire South, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Stafford (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Warwick and Leamington (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of West Midlands seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
8561Birmingham Ladywood Shabana Mahmood70,02359.09.880.63.63.12.70.00.00.2LABLAB
12557Birmingham Hodge Hill Liam Byrne75,69861.310.578.92.65.52.30.00.00.2LABLAB
17552Birmingham Hall Green Roger Godsiff78,27169.411.275.56.63.43.10.00.00.2LABLAB
63506Birmingham Perry Barr Khalid Mahmood70,10663.021.366.03.54.13.20.01.30.5LABLAB
66503Warley John Spellar63,72463.121.065.13.07.53.20.00.00.3LABLAB
84485Birmingham Yardley Jess Phillips72,58161.314.755.019.08.42.50.00.00.5LABLAB
95474Coventry North East Colleen Fletcher75,79261.424.761.33.57.02.90.00.00.4LABLAB
109460Birmingham Selly Oak Steve McCabe74,37065.926.760.84.44.13.70.00.00.3LABLAB
151418Wolverhampton South East Pat McFadden69,95151.929.656.12.38.73.00.00.00.3LABLAB
165404Walsall South Valerie Vaz67,41765.432.055.32.48.21.90.00.00.3LABLAB
170399West Bromwich East Tom Watson63,83361.333.155.92.74.13.20.00.01.1LABLAB
171398Birmingham Erdington Jack Dromey65,06757.233.255.93.14.13.50.00.00.3LABLAB
180389Coventry North West Geoffrey Robinson75,21466.331.651.83.67.23.20.02.30.3LABLAB
181388Coventry South James Cunningham70,75466.433.052.93.96.33.20.00.00.7LABLAB
186383Birmingham Edgbaston Preet Gill68,09164.034.353.24.64.13.20.00.00.6LABLAB
197372Wolverhampton North East Emma Reynolds60,79960.035.150.72.68.23.20.00.00.3LABLAB
199370West Bromwich West Adrian Bailey65,95654.734.549.92.010.52.80.00.00.3LABLAB
201368Stoke-on-Trent Central Gareth Snell58,19657.034.649.43.19.03.00.00.00.9LABLAB
209360Birmingham Northfield Richard Burden72,32261.337.551.13.24.13.80.00.00.3LABLAB
230339Stoke-on-Trent North Ruth Smeeth72,36857.740.148.83.24.13.50.00.00.3LABLAB
232337Wolverhampton South West Eleanor Smith60,00370.639.047.22.96.53.20.00.01.1LABLAB
241328Warwick and Leamington Matt Western74,23772.839.344.66.35.64.10.00.00.3LABLAB
255314Newcastle-under-Lyme Paul Farrelly65,54066.942.946.14.84.11.90.00.00.3LABLAB
256313Dudley North Ian Austin62,04362.741.344.42.09.62.50.00.00.3LABLAB
265304Stoke-on-Trent South Jack Brereton66,04663.143.945.43.04.13.40.00.00.3CONLAB
267302Telford Lucy Allan68,16465.643.645.03.24.13.90.00.00.3CONLAB
289280Worcester Robin Walker72,81570.642.941.14.56.74.20.00.00.5CONCON
298271Walsall North Eddie Hughes67,30956.644.440.72.610.11.90.00.00.3CONCON
311258Nuneaton Marcus Jones69,20166.646.439.23.07.63.50.00.00.3CONCON
317252Shrewsbury and Atcham Daniel Kawczynski79,04373.644.836.58.46.53.70.00.00.3CONCON
319250Halesowen and Rowley Regis James Morris68,85664.546.737.93.08.92.90.00.00.7CONCON
328241Stafford Jeremy Lefroy68,44575.949.637.74.04.14.30.00.00.3CONCON
333236Rugby Mark Pawsey72,17571.149.136.26.64.13.70.00.00.3CONCON
334235Stourbridge Margot James70,21567.149.436.23.47.92.90.00.00.3CONCON
335234Redditch Rachel Maclean64,33470.347.133.93.67.12.70.05.00.5CONCON
341228Cannock Chase Amanda Milling74,54064.249.835.32.78.33.60.00.00.3CONCON
344225Warwickshire North Craig Tracey72,27765.351.836.83.24.13.90.00.00.3CONCON
354215Wrekin, The Mark Pritchard68,64272.150.234.03.87.53.50.00.01.0CONCON
358211Burton Andrew Griffiths73,95467.552.835.73.64.13.50.00.00.3CONCON
360209Dudley South Mike Wood61,32362.451.334.12.78.82.90.00.00.3CONCON
384185Staffordshire Moorlands Karen Bradley66,00967.653.031.84.44.13.10.03.40.3CONCON
402167Wyre Forest Mark Garnier77,73465.853.230.24.97.63.90.00.00.3CONCON
403166Tamworth Christopher Pincher71,31966.155.832.75.24.11.90.00.00.3CONCON
427142Sutton Coldfield Andrew Mitchell75,65269.955.829.85.44.13.70.00.01.2CONCON
429140Shropshire North Owen Paterson80,53569.055.329.06.44.15.00.00.00.3CONCON
431138Hereford and South Herefordshire Jesse Norman71,08871.048.321.68.16.44.30.011.00.3CONCON
445124Bromsgrove Sajid Javid73,57173.556.829.25.74.14.00.00.00.3CONCON
47693Lichfield Michael Fabricant74,43071.958.426.76.04.14.50.00.00.3CONCON
47990Stone Bill Cash67,82473.858.026.15.56.93.30.00.00.3CONCON
48485Meriden Caroline Spelman81,43767.156.824.75.97.84.50.00.00.3CONCON
48881Kenilworth and Southam Jeremy Wright66,32377.455.623.510.65.94.10.00.00.3CONCON
49376Aldridge-Brownhills Wendy Morton60,36366.760.227.74.44.11.90.00.01.7CONCON
49970Solihull Julian Knight77,78473.052.919.816.76.43.90.00.00.3CONCON
50762Worcestershire West Harriett Baldwin74,38575.956.321.610.56.74.70.00.00.3CONCON
51752Ludlow Philip Dunne68,03473.457.722.211.74.14.00.00.00.3CONCON
52841Stratford-on-Avon Nadhim Zahawi72,60972.357.020.213.24.14.40.00.01.2CONCON
54227Worcestershire Mid Nigel Huddleston76,06572.460.120.87.37.14.40.00.00.3CONCON
54821Herefordshire North Bill Wiggin67,75174.156.816.912.74.17.40.00.02.1CONCON
55316Staffordshire South Gavin Williamson73,45369.664.623.23.74.14.20.00.00.3CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.