| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 27.6% | 15 | 20.8% | 1 | 5 | -4 | 11 |
| LAB | 34.0% | 38 | 18.0% | 0 | 33 | -33 | 5 |
| LIB | 8.8% | 2 | 10.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 2 |
| Reform | 18.1% | 0 | 31.4% | 35 | 0 | +35 | 35 |
| Green | 6.6% | 1 | 12.7% | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| Other | 4.9% | 1 | 7.2% | 1 | 1 | +0 | 1 |
This page shows all the seats in West Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Birmingham Ladywood' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Staffordshire Moorlands', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Staffordshire Moorlands (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Birmingham Ladywood (prediction: Green).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 304 | Birmingham Ladywood | Shabana Mahmood | 83,693 | 43.7 | 5.9 | 21.3 | 4.2 | 11.6 | 36.2 | 20.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Green |
| 44 | 285 | Coventry South | Zarah Sultana | 76,262 | 56.0 | 19.1 | 26.5 | 8.5 | 20.5 | 18.1 | 4.8 | 2.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 50 | 279 | Coventry North West | Taiwo Owatemi | 75,057 | 56.0 | 8.1 | 40.1 | 3.6 | 34.8 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 5.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 52 | 276 | Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley | Tahir Ali | 76,936 | 54.1 | 8.7 | 19.8 | 9.2 | 14.7 | 28.3 | 12.3 | 7.0 | LAB | Green |
| 54 | 275 | Warwick and Leamington | Matt Western | 76,294 | 64.5 | 17.4 | 25.5 | 10.4 | 21.0 | 22.1 | 0.0 | 3.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 55 | 274 | Birmingham Edgbaston | Preet Kaur Gill | 71,787 | 52.1 | 17.8 | 24.7 | 8.9 | 21.0 | 20.5 | 0.0 | 7.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 62 | 266 | Birmingham Perry Barr | Ayoub Khan | 76,350 | 49.1 | 11.1 | 18.0 | 5.3 | 15.3 | 25.0 | 24.4 | 0.9 | MIN | Green |
| 76 | 253 | Wolverhampton West | Warinder Juss | 77,851 | 56.1 | 22.1 | 24.4 | 7.8 | 23.5 | 14.9 | 2.4 | 5.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 90 | 239 | Coventry East | Mary Creagh | 75,801 | 48.8 | 7.1 | 35.4 | 2.8 | 36.4 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 2.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 93 | 236 | Smethwick | Gurinder Singh Josan | 72,863 | 48.2 | 9.2 | 28.5 | 4.6 | 30.2 | 14.3 | 9.5 | 3.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 103 | 226 | Shrewsbury | Julia Buckley | 76,633 | 67.3 | 18.5 | 23.3 | 15.1 | 25.6 | 13.6 | 0.0 | 3.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 109 | 220 | West Bromwich | Sarah Coombes | 74,026 | 49.3 | 12.6 | 30.7 | 5.0 | 33.7 | 10.1 | 0.0 | 7.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 110 | 219 | Birmingham Selly Oak | Alistair Carns | 75,678 | 50.8 | 10.7 | 23.5 | 7.2 | 26.6 | 24.3 | 0.0 | 7.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 127 | 201 | Birmingham Yardley | Jess Phillips | 73,203 | 49.4 | 10.6 | 15.1 | 9.1 | 19.8 | 21.4 | 24.0 | 0.0 | LAB | MIN |
| 146 | 183 | Worcester | Tom Collins | 74,931 | 61.4 | 16.6 | 21.2 | 9.9 | 28.2 | 19.7 | 0.0 | 4.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 182 | 147 | Walsall and Bloxwich | Valerie Vaz | 75,968 | 49.0 | 13.8 | 17.1 | 5.7 | 27.5 | 14.6 | 21.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 183 | 146 | Wolverhampton South East | Pat McFadden | 77,473 | 43.1 | 7.7 | 29.9 | 2.4 | 40.3 | 7.1 | 12.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 185 | 144 | Rugby | John Anthony Slinger | 74,901 | 65.4 | 27.5 | 20.1 | 8.1 | 30.6 | 9.5 | 0.0 | 4.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 188 | 141 | Birmingham Erdington | Paulette Hamilton | 77,463 | 43.6 | 11.5 | 23.1 | 5.7 | 34.0 | 15.1 | 0.0 | 10.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 190 | 139 | Birmingham Northfield | Laurence Turner | 74,048 | 50.8 | 17.7 | 21.1 | 7.8 | 32.1 | 15.6 | 0.0 | 5.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 197 | 131 | Sutton Coldfield | Andrew Mitchell | 74,080 | 65.2 | 35.0 | 15.9 | 6.8 | 27.6 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 199 | 130 | Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North | Liam Byrne | 77,737 | 43.9 | 9.8 | 15.9 | 4.1 | 27.8 | 18.8 | 23.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 202 | 127 | Stafford | Leigh Ingham | 70,608 | 65.2 | 19.8 | 20.7 | 9.3 | 32.9 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 3.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 215 | 114 | Stourbridge | Cat Eccles | 68,311 | 58.4 | 26.6 | 17.9 | 5.7 | 31.8 | 8.1 | 10.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 219 | 110 | Telford | Shaun Davies | 73,808 | 55.2 | 14.3 | 25.0 | 6.1 | 39.5 | 10.3 | 0.0 | 4.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 222 | 107 | Newcastle-under-Lyme | Adam Jogee | 67,839 | 58.4 | 19.1 | 20.2 | 10.1 | 34.7 | 12.3 | 0.0 | 3.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 228 | 101 | Halesowen | Alex Ballinger | 68,549 | 56.3 | 19.8 | 18.6 | 10.7 | 33.7 | 13.3 | 0.0 | 3.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 231 | 98 | Stoke-on-Trent North | David Williams | 69,790 | 51.8 | 18.5 | 20.7 | 6.9 | 36.2 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 7.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 243 | 86 | Stoke-on-Trent Central | Gareth Snell | 73,693 | 47.9 | 9.0 | 25.5 | 4.0 | 41.9 | 9.3 | 0.0 | 10.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 249 | 80 | Nuneaton | Jodie Gosling | 71,662 | 57.5 | 19.2 | 17.3 | 7.6 | 34.8 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 260 | 69 | Wolverhampton North East | Sureena Brackenridge | 70,715 | 47.1 | 18.1 | 19.2 | 7.9 | 38.6 | 12.3 | 0.0 | 3.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 264 | 64 | Kenilworth and Southam | Jeremy Wright | 74,923 | 71.2 | 39.1 | 9.8 | 11.1 | 29.9 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 3.1 | CON | CON |
| 265 | 64 | Burton and Uttoxeter | Jacob Collier | 77,994 | 58.5 | 28.2 | 14.7 | 4.3 | 34.7 | 7.3 | 10.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 265 | 63 | Stratford-on-Avon | Manuela Perteghella | 75,714 | 69.9 | 26.7 | 7.2 | 28.6 | 27.3 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 3.7 | LIB | LIB |
| 266 | 63 | Tipton and Wednesbury | Antonia Bance | 74,100 | 43.0 | 18.4 | 18.0 | 6.1 | 38.2 | 10.9 | 0.0 | 8.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 267 | 61 | Solihull West and Shirley | Neil Shastri-Hurst | 71,813 | 65.3 | 41.3 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 29.1 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 270 | 59 | Stoke-on-Trent South | Allison Gardner | 68,263 | 60.0 | 31.3 | 14.9 | 5.5 | 36.4 | 5.9 | 0.0 | 5.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 270 | 58 | Lichfield | Dave Robertson | 76,118 | 64.5 | 35.5 | 13.7 | 5.9 | 35.4 | 5.4 | 0.0 | 4.1 | LAB | CON |
| 270 | 58 | Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge | Gavin Williamson | 71,561 | 59.8 | 44.3 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 31.6 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 4.4 | CON | CON |
| 277 | 52 | Warwickshire North and Bedworth | Rachel Margaret Taylor | 69,752 | 58.7 | 26.1 | 16.8 | 5.7 | 40.0 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 4.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 279 | 50 | Worcestershire West | Harriett Baldwin | 79,242 | 69.0 | 24.1 | 10.3 | 19.3 | 33.8 | 9.5 | 0.0 | 2.9 | CON | Reform |
| 280 | 49 | Redditch | Christopher James Bloore | 71,038 | 59.7 | 32.1 | 12.6 | 4.1 | 36.5 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 284 | 45 | Wyre Forest | Mark Garnier | 77,394 | 58.3 | 31.2 | 12.9 | 5.8 | 38.3 | 5.9 | 0.0 | 5.9 | CON | Reform |
| 285 | 44 | Cannock Chase | Josh Newbury | 76,974 | 55.8 | 18.1 | 16.9 | 7.7 | 42.6 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 3.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 287 | 42 | Herefordshire North | Ellie Chowns | 72,797 | 69.2 | 23.3 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 32.8 | 26.4 | 0.0 | 4.3 | Green | Reform |
| 288 | 41 | Dudley | Sonia Kumar | 70,151 | 51.0 | 19.5 | 15.2 | 7.7 | 41.0 | 10.3 | 3.4 | 2.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 288 | 40 | Bromsgrove | Bradley Anthony Thomas | 76,468 | 65.9 | 41.3 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 34.8 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 4.1 | CON | CON |
| 290 | 39 | Shropshire South | Stuart Anderson | 76,723 | 67.3 | 32.6 | 8.1 | 16.7 | 34.4 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 3.1 | CON | Reform |
| 292 | 36 | Meriden and Solihull East | Saqib Bhatti | 73,659 | 59.8 | 40.1 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 36.1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 3.9 | CON | CON |
| 293 | 35 | Wrekin, The | Mark Pritchard | 78,942 | 63.4 | 40.1 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 36.6 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 4.0 | CON | CON |
| 294 | 34 | Shropshire North | Helen Morgan | 77,594 | 63.9 | 11.9 | 3.9 | 43.8 | 31.5 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 4.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 295 | 34 | Tamworth | Sarah Edwards | 75,059 | 58.3 | 30.8 | 12.8 | 4.2 | 40.7 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 2.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 299 | 29 | Hereford and South Herefordshire | Jesse Norman | 72,203 | 63.1 | 39.3 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 37.3 | 5.7 | 0.0 | 3.8 | CON | CON |
| 304 | 25 | Aldridge-Brownhills | Wendy Morton | 70,871 | 57.7 | 37.6 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 39.6 | 4.6 | 0.0 | 4.5 | CON | Reform |
| 304 | 24 | Droitwich and Evesham | Nigel Huddleston | 76,624 | 64.7 | 39.6 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 37.8 | 5.4 | 0.0 | 4.0 | CON | CON |
| 304 | 24 | Kingswinford and South Staffordshire | Mike Wood | 71,662 | 63.0 | 40.0 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 39.0 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 4.5 | CON | CON |
| 312 | 17 | Staffordshire Moorlands | Karen Bradley | 69,892 | 62.0 | 29.0 | 12.2 | 5.0 | 45.4 | 5.4 | 0.0 | 3.1 | CON | Reform |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.