West Midlands: Majority Sorted Seats

West Midlands Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 53.4%44 31.0%026-2618
LAB 33.9%15 43.6%260+2641
LIB 7.9%0 7.7%00+00
Reform 1.4%0 10.8%00+00
Green 3.0%0 5.9%00+00
Other 0.5%0 1.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in West Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Birmingham Ladywood, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Staffordshire South, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Walsall North (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Wolverhampton North East (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of West Midlands seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2019
Win
Pred
Win
1579Birmingham Ladywood Shabana Mahmood74,91256.24.682.02.15.55.10.00.8LABLAB
10570Birmingham Hodge Hill Liam Byrne78,29557.56.777.92.07.64.70.01.1LABLAB
21559Birmingham Hall Green Tahir Ali80,28365.99.574.03.27.64.60.01.0LABLAB
39541Birmingham Perry Barr Khalid Mahmood72,00658.512.570.53.38.44.30.01.0LABLAB
56524Warley John Spellar62,35759.714.068.22.79.14.90.01.1LABLAB
79501Birmingham Selly Oak Steve McCabe82,66559.814.963.83.88.77.80.01.0LABLAB
86494Coventry North East Colleen Fletcher76,00658.516.464.33.29.65.40.01.2LABLAB
100480Birmingham Yardley Jess Phillips74,70457.114.659.27.912.05.10.01.2LABLAB
122458Birmingham Edgbaston Preet Gill68,82861.518.961.44.38.85.70.01.0LABLAB
145435Wolverhampton South East Pat McFadden62,88353.220.960.32.810.44.40.01.2LABLAB
175405Walsall South Valerie Vaz68,02462.422.859.33.29.64.00.01.2LABLAB
187393Stoke-on-Trent Central Jo Gideon55,41957.922.357.33.310.75.40.01.1CONLAB
192388West Bromwich East Nicola Richards62,04658.023.857.33.010.44.10.01.2CONLAB
204376Birmingham Northfield Gary Sambrook73,69458.522.554.44.311.06.40.01.3CONLAB
206374Coventry South Zarah Sultana70,97963.524.055.74.59.25.50.01.0LABLAB
210370West Bromwich West Shaun Bailey64,51753.424.455.82.911.14.50.01.3CONLAB
220360Coventry North West Taiwo Owatemi75,24763.423.353.54.910.76.40.01.3LABLAB
221359Birmingham Erdington Jack Dromey66,14853.327.757.81.97.13.21.11.3LABLAB
233347Wolverhampton North East Jane Stevenson61,66055.625.654.33.510.84.70.01.2CONLAB
256324Warwick and Leamington Matt Western76,36271.022.448.07.511.09.70.01.4LABLAB
268312Wolverhampton South West Stuart Anderson60,53468.029.353.43.78.93.70.01.0CONLAB
274306Stoke-on-Trent North Jonathan Gullis68,29858.827.650.93.911.84.50.01.2CONLAB
305275Telford Lucy Allan68,92162.130.150.33.610.05.00.00.9CONLAB
317263Newcastle-under-Lyme Aaron Bell68,21165.629.948.05.210.95.10.01.0CONLAB
322258Worcester Robin Walker73,48569.327.444.75.911.59.20.01.3CONLAB
334246Walsall North Eddie Hughes67,17754.432.547.13.711.04.60.01.1CONLAB
338242Stoke-on-Trent South Jack Brereton64,49161.432.546.64.811.23.80.01.1CONLAB
348232Dudley North Marco Longhi61,93659.233.446.03.811.04.70.01.1CONLAB
351229Halesowen and Rowley Regis James Morris68,30062.033.845.64.110.45.00.01.1CONLAB
352228Shrewsbury and Atcham Daniel Kawczynski82,23871.829.641.310.411.26.70.00.8CONLAB
366214Nuneaton Marcus Jones70,22664.334.343.54.710.55.90.01.0CONLAB
367213Rugby Mark Pawsey72,29270.333.242.47.210.85.50.00.8CONLAB
369211Burton Kate Griffiths75,03665.035.343.94.210.25.50.00.8CONLAB
376204Stafford Theo Clarke72,57270.533.241.06.011.57.30.00.9CONLAB
380200Stourbridge Suzanne Webb69,89165.436.242.45.010.64.90.01.0CONLAB
394186Warwickshire North Craig Tracey70,27165.336.340.85.511.64.90.00.8CONLAB
405175Wrekin, The Mark Pritchard70,69369.235.739.17.011.55.70.00.9CONLAB
406174Redditch Rachel Maclean65,39167.437.340.55.310.75.40.00.9CONLAB
419161Cannock Chase Amanda Milling74,81361.936.938.74.111.67.60.01.1CONLAB
425155Tamworth Christopher Pincher71,57264.339.640.73.210.33.41.11.6CONLAB
429151Staffordshire Moorlands Karen Bradley65,48566.737.838.75.511.65.60.00.8CONLAB
444136Dudley South Mike Wood60,73160.238.738.35.411.54.90.01.1CONCON
453127Wyre Forest Mark Garnier78,07764.837.236.07.612.45.80.01.1CONCON
465115Hereford and South Herefordshire Jesse Norman72,08568.933.530.714.013.17.50.01.1CONCON
473107Bromsgrove Sajid Javid75,07872.337.834.09.611.66.10.01.0CONCON
48892Stone Bill Cash69,37871.839.134.18.311.66.10.00.7CONCON
49288Sutton Coldfield Andrew Mitchell75,63869.240.535.28.29.95.40.00.8CONCON
50773Lichfield Michael Fabricant76,61670.540.433.98.311.15.70.00.7CONCON
50872Kenilworth and Southam Jeremy Wright68,15477.234.027.518.811.37.80.00.6CONCON
51268Meriden Saqib Bhatti85,36863.438.731.78.911.77.90.01.1CONCON
52555Worcestershire West Harriett Baldwin76,24175.534.625.717.313.28.30.00.9CONCON
55228Aldridge-Brownhills Wendy Morton60,13865.444.432.86.011.54.20.01.2CONCON
55327Solihull Julian Knight78,76070.338.226.615.411.57.10.01.2CONCON
55624Stratford-on-Avon Nadhim Zahawi74,03774.434.922.323.911.76.60.00.5CONCON
55723Ludlow Philip Dunne69,44472.338.926.117.611.65.20.00.4CONCON
56119Worcestershire Mid Nigel Huddleston78,22071.841.327.411.612.16.80.00.8CONCON
56218Herefordshire North Bill Wiggin70,25272.637.523.415.513.29.80.00.6CONCON
56416Shropshire North Owen Paterson83,25867.935.220.227.310.94.90.01.4CONCON
56614Staffordshire South Gavin Williamson73,66867.944.729.47.312.25.40.01.0CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.