New Seat Details

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Newark been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	36,619	63.1%
LAB	17,087	29.4%
LIB	2,857	4.9%
UKIP	1,469	2.5%
Green	38	0.1%
CON Majority	19,532	33.6%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Newark: Map

List of old seats forming part of Newark

Old seat: Newark

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Newark, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Newark				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Bassetlaw	East Markham	1,929	Newark	984	344	32	21	0	0	0	0	1,381
Bassetlaw	Rampton	1,595	Newark	825	397	32	22	0	0	0	0	1,276
Bassetlaw	Tuxford and Trent	3,395	Newark	1,378	887	64	42	0	0	0	0	2,371
Newark and Sherwood	Balderton North and Coddington	5,015	Newark	2,354	1,137	151	73	0	0	0	0	3,715
Newark and Sherwood	Balderton South	3,663	Newark	1,674	923	104	51	0	0	0	0	2,752
Newark and Sherwood	Beacon	5,714	Newark	2,581	1,663	240	235	0	0	0	0	4,719
Newark and Sherwood	Bridge	3,953	Newark	1,904	1,387	156	250	0	0	0	0	3,697
Newark and Sherwood	Castle	2,115	Newark	958	646	120	95	0	0	0	0	1,819
Newark and Sherwood	Collingham	4,262	Newark	1,992	637	314	49	0	0	0	0	2,992
Newark and Sherwood	Devon	6,061	Newark	2,512	2,476	172	106	0	0	0	0	5,266
Newark and Sherwood	Dover Beck	1,889	Newark	1,055	241	31	18	0	0	0	0	1,345
Newark and Sherwood	Farndon and Fernwood	4,631	Newark	2,294	737	98	148	0	0	0	0	3,277
Newark and Sherwood	Lowdham	2,218	Newark	1,512	397	88	29	0	0	0	0	2,026
Newark and Sherwood	Muskham	2,285	Newark	1,158	311	138	25	0	0	0	0	1,632
Newark and Sherwood	Rainworth North and Rufford	338	Sherwood	124	114	7	5	0	0	0	0	250
Newark and Sherwood	Southwell	5,542	Newark	2,618	1,036	456	61	0	0	0	0	4,171
Newark and Sherwood	Sutton-on-Trent	2,433	Newark	1,144	370	163	26	0	0	0	0	1,703
Newark and Sherwood	Trent	2,263	Newark	1,311	282	38	20	0	0	0	0	1,651
Rushcliffe	Bingham East	3,841	Newark	1,749	733	142	49	0	0	0	0	2,673
Rushcliffe	Bingham West	3,523	Newark	1,518	735	114	42	0	0	0	0	2,409
Rushcliffe	Cranmer	1,845	Newark	1,209	423	62	24	0	0	0	0	1,718
Rushcliffe	East Bridgford	1,644	Newark	741	254	34	14	0	0	0	0	1,043
Rushcliffe	Thoroton	1,666	Newark	896	215	29	15	0	0	0	0	1,155
	Total	71,820		34,491	16,345	2,785	1,420	0	0	0	0	55,041

The full details of these calculations are given on the Newark seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Rushcliffe

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Rushcliffe, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Rushcliffe				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Rushcliffe	Abbey	4,091	Rushcliffe North and Clifton	1,484	1,387	235	80	137	0	0	0	3,323
Rushcliffe	Bunny	1,935	Loughborough and South Rushcliffe	1,009	408	26	45	19	0	0	0	1,507
Rushcliffe	Compton Acres	3,844	Rushcliffe North and Clifton	1,754	1,205	185	83	52	0	0	0	3,279
Rushcliffe	Cotgrave	5,397	Rushcliffe North and Clifton	1,901	2,121	121	161	130	0	0	0	4,434
Rushcliffe	Cropwell	2,048	Rushcliffe North and Clifton	969	514	37	26	24	0	0	0	1,570
Rushcliffe	East Bridgford	611	Newark	272	119	9	6	6	0	0	0	412
Rushcliffe	Edwalton	2,973	Rushcliffe North and Clifton	1,243	783	141	67	88	0	0	0	2,322
Rushcliffe	Gamston North	1,871	Rushcliffe North and Clifton	847	588	49	46	26	0	0	0	1,556
Rushcliffe	Gamston South	1,859	Rushcliffe North and Clifton	912	618	49	22	23	0	0	0	1,624
Rushcliffe	Gotham	1,996	Loughborough and South Rushcliffe	862	517	38	51	23	0	0	0	1,491
Rushcliffe	Keyworth and Wolds	6,509	Loughborough and South Rushcliffe	2,738	1,561	311	166	146	0	0	0	4,922
Rushcliffe	Lady Bay	3,712	Rushcliffe North and Clifton	1,350	1,464	194	43	192	0	0	0	3,243
Rushcliffe	Leake	5,704	Loughborough and South Rushcliffe	2,511	1,489	106	150	64	0	0	0	4,320
Rushcliffe	Lutterell	3,862	Rushcliffe North and Clifton	1,465	1,484	245	46	62	0	0	0	3,302
Rushcliffe	Musters	3,400	Rushcliffe North and Clifton	1,323	1,041	361	36	59	0	0	0	2,820
Rushcliffe	Nevile and Langar	2,186	Rushcliffe North and Clifton	1,140	456	32	23	22	0	0	0	1,673
Rushcliffe	Radcliffe on Trent	6,464	Rushcliffe North and Clifton	2,786	1,776	171	142	166	0	0	0	5,041
Rushcliffe	Ruddington	5,540	Rushcliffe North and Clifton	2,151	1,814	158	140	173	0	0	0	4,436
Rushcliffe	Sutton Bonington	1,474	Loughborough and South Rushcliffe	731	453	109	46	20	0	0	0	1,359
Rushcliffe	Thoroton	353	Newark	183	66	4	4	4	0	0	0	261
Rushcliffe	Tollerton	1,963	Rushcliffe North and Clifton	963	420	29	22	20	0	0	0	1,454
Rushcliffe	Trent Bridge	3,938	Rushcliffe North and Clifton	1,629	1,928	149	88	172	0	0	0	3,966
	Total	71,730		30,223	22,212	2,759	1,493	1,628	0	0	0	58,315

The full details of these calculations are given on the Rushcliffe seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Sherwood

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Sherwood, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Sherwood				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Ashfield	Hucknall Central	5,183	Broxtowe and Hucknall	1,734	1,863	171	194	58	0	0	0	4,020
Ashfield	Hucknall North	7,490	Broxtowe and Hucknall	2,468	2,092	112	217	146	0	0	0	5,035
Ashfield	Hucknall South	5,321	Broxtowe and Hucknall	1,728	1,854	102	186	50	0	0	0	3,920
Ashfield	Hucknall West	6,931	Broxtowe and Hucknall	2,646	2,142	122	237	60	0	0	0	5,207
Gedling	Bestwood St Albans	1,434	Sherwood	503	496	35	50	16	0	0	0	1,100
Gedling	Calverton	5,712	Sherwood	2,233	1,545	100	188	50	0	0	0	4,116
Gedling	Dumbles	2,294	Sherwood	1,189	346	22	64	17	0	0	0	1,638
Gedling	Newstead Abbey	6,362	Sherwood	3,062	1,090	72	178	49	0	0	0	4,451
Gedling	Plains	784	Sherwood	286	169	28	22	16	0	0	0	521
Gedling	Redhill	29	Sherwood	9	8	0	1	0	0	0	0	18
Newark and Sherwood	Bilsthorpe	2,322	Sherwood	1,000	912	24	39	19	0	0	0	1,994
Newark and Sherwood	Boughton	2,259	Sherwood	910	800	17	37	13	0	0	0	1,777
Newark and Sherwood	Dover Beck	468	Newark	250	64	3	5	3	0	0	0	325
Newark and Sherwood	Edwinstowe and Clipstone	7,426	Sherwood	2,757	2,642	80	114	48	0	0	0	5,641
Newark and Sherwood	Farnsfield	2,133	Newark	1,054	427	23	26	16	0	0	0	1,546
Newark and Sherwood	Ollerton	6,303	Sherwood	2,021	2,534	76	98	37	0	0	0	4,766
Newark and Sherwood	Rainworth North and Rufford	4,568	Sherwood	1,719	1,443	39	68	27	0	0	0	3,296
Newark and Sherwood	Rainworth South and Blidworth	3,852	Sherwood	1,430	1,689	48	65	30	0	0	0	3,262
Newark and Sherwood	Southwell	1,000	Newark	493	180	40	13	9	0	0	0	735
	Total	71,871		27,492	22,296	1,114	1,802	664	0	0	0	53,368

The full details of these calculations are given on the Sherwood seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Newark

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Newark
Bassetlaw	East Markham	1,896	Newark	984	344	32	21	0	0	0	0	1,381
Bassetlaw	Rampton	1,752	Newark	825	397	32	22	0	0	0	0	1,276
Bassetlaw	Tuxford and Trent	3,253	Newark	1,378	887	64	42	0	0	0	0	2,371
Newark and Sherwood	Balderton North and Coddington	5,097	Newark	2,354	1,137	151	73	0	0	0	0	3,715
Newark and Sherwood	Balderton South	3,778	Newark	1,674	923	104	51	0	0	0	0	2,752
Newark and Sherwood	Beacon	6,476	Newark	2,581	1,663	240	235	0	0	0	0	4,719
Newark and Sherwood	Bridge	5,073	Newark	1,904	1,387	156	250	0	0	0	0	3,697
Newark and Sherwood	Castle	2,496	Newark	958	646	120	95	0	0	0	0	1,819
Newark and Sherwood	Collingham	4,105	Newark	1,992	637	314	49	0	0	0	0	2,992
Newark and Sherwood	Devon	7,225	Newark	2,512	2,476	172	106	0	0	0	0	5,266
Newark and Sherwood	Dover Beck	1,846	Newark	1,055	241	31	18	0	0	0	0	1,345
Newark and Sherwood	Dover Beck	464	Sherwood	250	64	3	5	3	0	0	0	325
Newark and Sherwood	Farndon and Fernwood	4,497	Newark	2,294	737	98	148	0	0	0	0	3,277
Newark and Sherwood	Farnsfield	2,206	Sherwood	1,054	427	23	26	16	0	0	0	1,546
Newark and Sherwood	Lowdham	2,778	Newark	1,512	397	88	29	0	0	0	0	2,026
Newark and Sherwood	Muskham	2,239	Newark	1,158	311	138	25	0	0	0	0	1,632
Newark and Sherwood	Southwell	5,723	Newark	2,618	1,036	456	61	0	0	0	0	4,171
Newark and Sherwood	Southwell	1,047	Sherwood	493	180	40	13	9	0	0	0	735
Newark and Sherwood	Sutton-on-Trent	2,336	Newark	1,144	370	163	26	0	0	0	0	1,703
Newark and Sherwood	Trent	2,267	Newark	1,311	282	38	20	0	0	0	0	1,651
Rushcliffe	Bingham East	3,667	Newark	1,749	733	142	49	0	0	0	0	2,673
Rushcliffe	Bingham West	3,306	Newark	1,518	735	114	42	0	0	0	0	2,409
Rushcliffe	Cranmer	2,357	Newark	1,209	423	62	24	0	0	0	0	1,718
Rushcliffe	East Bridgford	1,430	Newark	741	254	34	14	0	0	0	0	1,043
Rushcliffe	East Bridgford	529	Rushcliffe	272	119	9	6	6	0	0	0	412
Rushcliffe	Thoroton	1,585	Newark	896	215	29	15	0	0	0	0	1,155
Rushcliffe	Thoroton	334	Rushcliffe	183	66	4	4	4	0	0	0	261
	Total	79,762		36,619	17,087	2,857	1,469	38	0	0	0	58,070

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Newark. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Robert Jenrick (CON)
County/Area:	Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	79,762
Turnout:	72.8%

Newark: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Newark: Overview

Introduction