General Election Prediction

Current Prediction: Reform short 81 of majority

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Low Seats	Pred Seats	High Seats
CON	24.4%	121	18.3%	22	116	240
LAB	34.7%	412	18.8%	20	83	245
LIB	12.6%	72	12.2%	30	61	89
Reform	14.7%	5	27.0%	109	245	376
Green	6.9%	4	14.5%	24	61	133
SNP	2.6%	9	3.2%	21	46	49
PlaidC	0.7%	4	1.4%	5	15	23
Other	3.5%	5	5.0%	0	5	10
SF		7			7
DUP		5			5
SDLP		2			2
UUP		1			1
Alliance		1			1
TUV		1			1
NI Other		1			1

Prediction based on opinion polls from 05 May 2026 to 27 May 2026, sampling 15,475 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Reform minority

38%

Lab minority

22%

Reform majority

15%

Con minority

11%

No overall control

Green minority

LibDem minority

Conservative majority

Probability of being the largest party

Reform

70%

Conservative

15%

Labour

13%

Green

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. Minority government probabilities assume possible alliances between the Conservative and Reform parties, and between Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.

In the headline prediction table, the columns 'Low Seats' and 'High Seats' give the 90 per cent confidence interval for the number of seats won.

Commentary for end-May 2026

Posted 29 May 2026

After the local elections at the start of May, the main parties are mostly steady in public support, except that the Greens have lost 1pc of support since April. If there were a general election soon, Reform would be the largest party, but short of an overall majority. The Conservatives would be in second place, and could give Reform a parliamentary majority if they supported them. Labour would be the third largest party.