South West: Majority Sorted Seats

South West Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 52.8%48 51.0%00+048
LAB 23.4%6 28.8%00+06
LIB 18.2%1 11.7%00+01
Brexit 0.4%0 0.2%00+00
Green 3.8%0 5.0%00+00
Other 1.6%0 3.3%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bristol West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Dorset Mid and Poole North, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Somerset North (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Truro and Falmouth (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Brexit
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2019
Win
Pred
Win
31533Bristol West Thangam Debbonaire99,25376.110.663.30.00.725.10.00.3LABLAB
108456Bristol East Kerry McCarthy73,86770.630.657.33.62.25.00.01.3LABLAB
116448Bristol South Karin Smyth84,07965.630.855.14.12.65.90.01.5LABLAB
125439Exeter Ben Bradshaw82,05468.532.855.00.01.59.00.01.6LABLAB
164400Bristol North West Darren Jones76,27373.336.952.84.70.04.40.01.2LABLAB
170394Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Luke Pollard77,85268.337.151.92.63.33.80.01.3LABLAB
233331Truro and Falmouth Cherilyn Mackrory76,71977.244.243.26.40.04.00.02.2CONCON
244320Stroud Siobhan Baillie84,53778.046.143.70.01.07.90.01.4CONCON
254310Filton and Bradley Stoke Jack Lopresti74,01672.647.142.45.00.03.80.01.7CONCON
274290Swindon South Robert Buckland73,11869.450.543.04.50.00.80.01.2CONCON
278285Bath Wera Hobhouse67,80576.929.020.345.20.71.70.03.0LIBLIB
292272Bournemouth East Tobias Ellwood74,12566.548.737.35.90.05.20.03.0CONCON
295269Camborne and Redruth George Eustice70,25071.751.339.23.70.03.40.02.4CONCON
302262Gloucester Richard Graham80,90166.552.438.84.30.03.40.01.2CONCON
311253Bournemouth West Conor Burns74,20562.051.635.85.70.05.50.01.4CONCON
315249Somerset North East Jacob Rees-Mogg73,69276.448.531.512.70.04.10.03.1CONCON
321243Kingswood Chris Skidmore68,97271.554.436.73.70.03.20.02.0CONCON
326238Somerset North Liam Fox80,19477.451.031.29.50.06.20.02.1CONCON
340224Devon Central Mel Stride74,92677.553.430.58.10.06.20.01.8CONCON
342222St Austell and Newquay Steve Double79,93069.854.230.85.60.03.90.05.5CONCON
346218Swindon North Justin Tomlinson82,44166.957.333.44.30.03.90.01.1CONCON
347217Weston-Super-Mare John Penrose82,52667.455.731.76.70.04.40.01.6CONCON
351213Plymouth Moor View Johnny Mercer69,43063.758.834.32.80.03.30.00.9CONCON
373191Totnes Anthony Mangnall69,86374.751.324.219.50.01.60.03.3CONCON
376188Dorset South Richard Drax73,80969.257.029.65.70.05.40.02.3CONCON
382182Forest of Dean Mark Harper71,43872.157.830.00.00.09.40.02.9CONCON
391173Newton Abbot Anne Marie Morris72,52972.553.725.012.90.04.50.03.9CONCON
398166Salisbury John Glen74,55672.154.525.210.50.06.20.03.6CONCON
403161Poole Robert Syms73,98968.256.826.78.30.04.70.03.5CONCON
414150Cornwall South East Sheryll Murray71,82574.757.426.38.60.04.10.03.5CONCON
421143Wiltshire South West Andrew Murrison77,96970.458.326.47.80.05.70.01.8CONCON
434130Tiverton and Honiton Neil Parish82,95371.958.425.27.90.05.10.03.4CONCON
437127St Ives Derek Thomas68,79574.747.514.231.70.03.50.03.2CONCON
443121Devon South West Gary Streeter72,53573.660.526.96.20.04.80.01.5CONCON
446118Somerton and Frome David Warburton85,86675.654.020.116.90.06.70.02.3CONCON
448116Cheltenham Alex Chalk81,04473.246.212.237.00.01.60.03.0CONCON
450114Chippenham Michelle Donelan77,22173.952.418.525.20.01.60.02.3CONCON
451113Tewkesbury Laurence Robertson83,95872.856.622.512.50.06.20.02.3CONCON
454110Devon West and Torridge Geoffrey Cox80,40374.358.324.09.70.05.00.03.0CONCON
46698Bridgwater and West Somerset Ian Liddell-Grainger85,32767.660.325.17.20.04.40.03.0CONCON
47985Dorset West Chris Loder81,89774.453.316.722.70.05.10.02.3CONCON
48777Taunton Deane Rebecca Pow88,67671.951.814.725.90.01.63.82.3CONCON
48876Torbay Kevin Foster75,05467.257.420.314.70.04.10.03.6CONCON
48975Cotswolds, The Geoffrey Clifton-Brown81,93974.756.218.915.60.07.00.02.3CONCON
49767Wells James Heappey84,12473.352.314.328.60.01.60.03.3CONCON
50658Devon North Selaine Saxby75,85973.354.816.420.70.04.80.03.3CONCON
51252Wiltshire North James Gray73,28074.757.317.717.60.05.10.02.3CONCON
51549Devizes Danny Kruger73,37269.461.321.48.50.06.80.01.9CONCON
52143Thornbury and Yate Luke Hall69,49275.256.015.324.80.01.60.02.3CONCON
52935Cornwall North Scott Mann69,93573.957.516.021.50.01.60.03.4CONCON
53727Devon East Simon Jupp87,16873.549.06.51.50.01.640.41.1CONCON
53826Dorset North Simon Hoare76,76573.161.819.311.00.05.60.02.3CONCON
54024Yeovil Marcus Fysh82,46871.956.513.621.70.04.30.03.8CONCON
54717Christchurch Christopher Chope71,52072.663.419.39.50.05.70.02.1CONCON
54915Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson65,42774.858.514.220.60.04.30.02.3CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.