South West: Sorted Seats

South West Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.2%11 21.6%19-83
LAB 24.5%24 15.9%018-186
LIB 24.7%22 20.9%05-517
Reform 13.8%0 29.1%300+3030
Green 7.4%1 9.1%10+12
Other 1.4%0 3.6%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Bristol North West' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Dorset West', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Dorset West (prediction: LIB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bristol North West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
6096Bristol North West Darren Jones74,86964.712.333.911.622.516.80.02.8LABLAB
7679Bristol East Kerry McCarthy75,91760.78.726.310.119.629.60.05.8LABGreen
7679Bristol South Karin Smyth75,53357.59.727.28.629.222.40.02.9LABReform
7679Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Luke Pollard75,31355.912.429.67.934.610.31.04.3LABReform
7779Bristol North East Damien Egan70,07659.911.828.88.228.317.50.05.3LABLAB
7878Exeter Steve Race67,84059.213.130.011.326.515.10.04.0LABLAB
7877Bristol Central Carla Denyer62,73569.14.721.57.710.852.80.02.5GreenGreen
8967Stroud Simon Joseph Opher77,91270.917.733.09.326.211.10.02.7LABLAB
9560Swindon South Heidi Alexander72,59661.716.630.88.232.88.70.02.9LABReform
9660Filton and Bradley Stoke Claire Hazelgrove77,58464.917.431.510.428.210.40.02.1LABLAB
10353Truro and Falmouth Jayne Kirkham73,08268.817.429.713.927.18.80.03.1LABLAB
10550Camborne and Redruth Perran Moon74,40264.215.326.710.336.27.80.03.7LABReform
10847Bournemouth East Tom Hayes72,35462.118.828.09.730.48.50.04.6LABReform
11639Plymouth Moor View Fred Thomas74,72457.418.420.88.242.37.30.03.0LABReform
11738Somerset North East and Hanham Dan Norris73,88769.224.125.810.727.48.90.03.2LABReform
11936Exmouth and Exeter East David George Reed79,98364.219.620.519.130.66.40.03.8CONReform
11936Weston-super-Mare Dan Aldridge71,39659.421.322.210.633.89.40.02.8LABReform
11936Bath Wera Hobhouse69,65569.115.114.932.319.412.20.55.6LIBLIB
12035Swindon North Will Stone73,23860.323.623.28.432.78.80.03.3LABReform
12035Bournemouth West Jessica Toale70,25956.121.821.412.031.310.20.03.4LABReform
12035Gloucester Alex McIntyre79,47557.521.420.211.732.38.72.53.2LABReform
12035St Austell and Newquay Noah Law76,14061.421.719.911.135.37.80.04.2LABReform
12035Cornwall South East Anna Gelderd72,72867.821.619.315.733.56.90.03.1LABReform
12134Dorset South Lloyd Hatton75,92464.623.219.115.431.97.00.03.3LABReform
12234Somerset North Sadik Al-Hassan74,42672.228.023.614.922.48.51.51.1LABCON
12233Devon Central Mel Stride75,38570.925.019.915.527.78.50.03.3CONReform
12233Forest of Dean Matt Bishop72,05266.725.620.38.632.110.70.02.8LABReform
12233Poole Neil John Duncan-Jordan72,50961.425.119.513.130.57.50.04.3LABReform
12332Frome and East Somerset Anna Sabine70,37866.416.910.928.030.010.20.03.9LIBReform
12530Devon South West Rebecca Smith77,60067.325.017.712.933.27.50.03.7CONReform
12629Bridgwater Ashley Fox71,57156.122.614.314.138.56.70.92.9CONReform
13025Wiltshire South West Andrew Murrison72,80963.425.815.714.632.57.30.04.2CONReform
13025St Ives Andrew George69,98068.716.36.137.431.55.30.03.4LIBLIB
13025Torridge and Tavistock Geoffrey Cox74,72768.022.612.220.535.26.20.03.3CONReform
13125Salisbury John Glen71,55370.127.717.120.924.16.80.03.4CONCON
13124Wiltshire East Danny Kruger73,87863.926.115.417.332.06.30.03.0CONReform
13124Taunton and Wellington Gideon Amos78,11664.417.16.434.434.25.40.02.5LIBLIB
13223Newton Abbot Martin Wrigley73,88565.021.89.224.432.06.40.06.2LIBReform
13619Yeovil Adam Dance79,70061.419.55.033.631.86.50.03.7LIBLIB
13718Wells and Mendip Hills Tessa Munt72,05169.921.56.034.726.25.90.05.7LIBLIB
14114Christchurch Christopher Chope71,06466.626.69.718.334.05.10.06.2CONReform
14114Tiverton and Minehead Rachel Gilmour71,84366.122.75.629.833.45.80.02.7LIBReform
14114Cornwall North Ben Maguire76,83267.821.94.933.831.74.70.03.0LIBLIB
14214Cotswolds North Geoffrey Clifton-Brown72,51369.328.711.323.725.47.70.03.2CONCON
14213Torbay Steve Darling76,17960.522.55.028.335.75.32.20.9LIBReform
14312Chippenham Sarah Gibson73,87667.024.05.834.026.56.20.03.5LIBLIB
14510Devon North Ian Roome79,07965.023.35.030.631.16.20.03.8LIBReform
14510Glastonbury and Somerton Sarah Joanne Dyke72,98265.323.75.231.630.06.90.02.6LIBLIB
14510Tewkesbury Cameron Thomas73,45866.124.76.232.026.87.40.02.9LIBLIB
14510Cheltenham Max Wilkinson76,14365.125.36.238.518.97.80.03.3LIBLIB
1478Devon South Caroline Voaden70,75569.325.35.234.527.25.10.02.7LIBLIB
1487Thornbury and Yate Claire Young78,19568.227.26.530.227.56.00.02.6LIBLIB
1487Honiton and Sidmouth Richard Foord75,53767.125.85.133.427.54.70.03.6LIBLIB
1487Dorset North Simon Hoare72,69068.326.95.626.732.25.20.03.3CONReform
1487Melksham and Devizes Brian Mathew71,99971.127.66.230.427.36.00.02.5LIBLIB
1514Cotswolds South Roz Savage71,97172.728.96.034.222.64.90.03.4LIBLIB
1514Dorset Mid and North Poole Vikki Slade75,29465.829.86.233.720.25.90.04.2LIBLIB
1514Dorset West Edward Morello75,99869.229.35.238.117.46.00.04.0LIBLIB

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.