South West: Majority Sorted Seats

South West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 51.4%47 29.6%011-1136
LAB 29.2%7 23.0%60+613
LIB 14.9%1 14.1%50+56
UKIP 1.1%0 5.1%00+00
Green 2.3%0 4.3%00+00
ChUK 0.0%0 6.1%00+00
Brexit 0.0%0 15.8%00+00
Minor 1.2%0 1.9%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bristol West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Devon East, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Bournemouth West (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bristol North West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
45505Bristol West Thangam Debbonaire92,98677.09.047.610.73.411.40.06.610.40.00.9LABLAB
135415Exeter Ben Bradshaw77,32971.719.543.
140410Bristol South Karin Smyth83,00965.517.541.
145405Bristol East Kerry McCarthy72,41470.220.443.
206344Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Luke Pollard76,58466.921.736.
220330Bristol North West Darren Jones75,43171.724.
280270Stroud David Drew82,84977.027.634.
288262Swindon South Robert Buckland72,39170.827.332.
299251Camborne and Redruth George Eustice67,46271.827.431.
309241Truro and Falmouth Sarah Newton74,69175.826.228.313.
310240Filton and Bradley Stoke Jack Lopresti72,56969.929.
313237Gloucester Richard Graham82,96365.
314236Plymouth Moor View Johnny Mercer69,34265.527.328.
328222Bournemouth West Conor Burns73,19560.828.427.
330220Bournemouth East Tobias Ellwood74,59165.
332218Swindon North Justin Tomlinson80,19468.530.
340210Kingswood Chris Skidmore69,42670.231.929.
362188Forest of Dean Mark Harper70,89873.
363187Weston-Super-Mare John Penrose82,16068.729.524.
369181Somerset North East Jacob Rees-Mogg71,35075.731.926.
370179Bath Wera Hobhouse66,76974.319.113.443.
371179St Austell and Newquay Steve Double78,61869.028.722.916.
378172Dorset South Richard Drax72,32371.831.
394156Bridgwater and West Somerset Ian Liddell-Grainger89,29465.329.921.810.
406144Totnes Sarah Wollaston68,91372.930.
408142Poole Robert Syms73,81167.532.323.
424126Devon Central Mel Stride74,37077.831.921.511.
439110St Ives Derek Thomas67,46275.923.812.637.
448102Somerset North Liam Fox80,53877.034.822.811.
449101Devon South West Gary Streeter71,26274.234.822.
45199Salisbury John Glen72,89273.133.020.911.
46486Wiltshire South West Andrew Murrison76,89871.233.721.
47178Devon North Peter Heaton-Jones75,78473.524.711.632.
47476Cornwall South East Sheryll Murray71,89674.032.018.915.
47674Torbay Kevin Foster75,93667.429.516.
47872Tiverton and Honiton Neil Parish80,73171.634.921.
47971Newton Abbot Anne Marie Morris71,72272.032.218.815.
48466Devon West and Torridge Geoffrey Cox80,52773.932.318.
48961Chippenham Michelle Donelan76,43274.832.618.
48960Cheltenham Alex Chalk78,87572.325.110.438.
49654Taunton Deane Rebecca Pow85,46673.830.314.819.
50446Dorset West Oliver Letwin79,04375.432.516.518.
50743Devizes Claire Perry72,18470.
50742Cornwall North Scott Mann68,85074.027.611.432.
50842Tewkesbury Laurence Robertson81,44272.534.718.512.
50841Wells James Heappey82,44973.827.811.334.
51832Somerton and Frome David Warburton84,43575.333.115.816.
52327Yeovil Marcus Fysh82,91171.631.
52723Cotswolds, The Geoffrey Clifton-Brown80,44674.234.816.314.
53218Wiltshire North James Gray71,40875.
53614Thornbury and Yate Luke Hall67,92774.633.513.
53713Dorset North Simon Hoare76,38573.037.216.612.
5437Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson65,05474.235.513.719.
5464Christchurch Christopher Chope70,32972.039.917.
5482Devon East Hugo Swire82,38273.343.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.