South West: Majority Sorted Seats

South West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 51.4%47 26.0%020-2027
LAB 29.2%7 15.7%00+07
LIB 14.9%1 25.4%170+1718
Brexit 0.0%0 22.7%30+33
Green 2.3%0 6.9%00+00
UKIP 1.1%0 1.1%00+00
Other 1.2%0 2.1%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bristol West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Devon East, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to St Ives (prediction: LIB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bristol West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Brexit
%
Green
%
UKIP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
99354Bristol West Thangam Debbonaire92,98677.08.331.328.15.124.40.90.01.8LABLAB
139314Bristol East Kerry McCarthy72,41470.219.036.116.517.47.91.20.02.0LABLAB
143310Bristol South Karin Smyth83,00965.516.032.918.219.79.51.30.02.3LABLAB
152301Exeter Ben Bradshaw77,32971.718.134.418.816.98.31.10.02.3LABLAB
209244Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Luke Pollard76,58466.921.829.617.119.38.81.20.02.2LABLAB
221232Bristol North West Darren Jones75,43171.722.828.221.516.57.71.10.02.3LABLAB
254199Stroud David Drew82,84977.024.825.617.221.17.71.10.02.5LABLAB
260192Camborne and Redruth George Eustice67,46271.823.422.818.524.87.01.20.02.3CONBrexit
261192Swindon South Robert Buckland72,39170.826.125.416.821.07.41.20.02.2CONCON
267185Plymouth Moor View Johnny Mercer69,34265.525.522.512.229.46.81.40.02.2CONBrexit
268185Gloucester Richard Graham82,96365.226.323.316.323.67.11.30.02.1CONCON
272181Filton and Bradley Stoke Jack Lopresti72,56969.926.322.319.920.77.41.10.02.2CONCON
273179Truro and Falmouth Sarah Newton74,69175.822.818.427.620.27.71.10.02.3CONLIB
279174Swindon North Justin Tomlinson80,19468.527.521.515.025.47.01.30.02.2CONCON
285168Kingswood Chris Skidmore69,42670.228.121.515.225.26.61.20.02.2CONCON
289164Bournemouth West Conor Burns73,19560.826.819.619.023.37.91.30.02.1CONCON
292161Bournemouth East Tobias Ellwood74,59165.227.219.619.621.88.21.30.02.2CONCON
297155St Austell and Newquay Steve Double78,61869.022.814.228.225.75.81.10.02.1CONLIB
299154Forest of Dean Mark Harper70,89873.027.918.915.326.97.41.30.02.4CONCON
304149Weston-Super-Mare John Penrose82,16068.726.417.020.425.77.01.30.02.3CONCON
308144Bath Wera Hobhouse66,76974.317.17.655.311.26.40.70.01.8LIBLIB
313140Somerset North East Jacob Rees-Mogg71,35075.728.017.920.123.37.21.20.02.3CONCON
321132Dorset South Richard Drax72,32371.828.517.716.126.97.31.20.02.3CONCON
323129Bridgwater and West Somerset Ian Liddell-Grainger89,29465.326.014.719.629.06.91.40.02.3CONBrexit
329123St Ives Derek Thomas67,46275.920.18.144.520.04.70.70.01.9CONLIB
345108Totnes Sarah Wollaston68,91372.926.813.523.024.78.31.20.02.4CONCON
347106Poole Robert Syms73,81167.528.815.320.125.46.91.30.02.2CONCON
347105Devon North Peter Heaton-Jones75,78473.521.37.740.422.95.00.90.01.8CONLIB
352100Torbay Kevin Foster75,93667.424.510.331.225.65.41.10.01.9CONLIB
35796Devon Central Mel Stride74,37077.828.213.723.223.77.71.20.02.3CONCON
36290Newton Abbot Anne Marie Morris71,72272.026.311.428.824.75.71.00.02.1CONLIB
36686Cornwall South East Sheryll Murray71,89674.027.011.627.125.16.11.00.02.1CONLIB
36983Cornwall North Scott Mann68,85074.023.27.438.823.74.20.80.01.8CONLIB
37082Chippenham Michelle Donelan76,43274.826.010.135.120.95.00.80.02.0CONLIB
37181Cheltenham Alex Chalk78,87572.322.36.448.615.64.70.70.01.7CONLIB
37281Devon South West Gary Streeter71,26274.231.015.017.226.07.21.20.02.3CONCON
37380Wiltshire South West Andrew Murrison76,89871.229.813.919.926.26.71.20.02.2CONCON
37479Devon West and Torridge Geoffrey Cox80,52773.927.411.425.426.16.31.10.02.1CONCON
37874Wells James Heappey82,44973.823.47.341.520.94.30.80.01.8CONLIB
37974Somerset North Liam Fox80,53877.030.013.924.021.77.11.10.02.3CONCON
38370Tiverton and Honiton Neil Parish80,73171.630.213.918.926.76.91.20.02.2CONCON
38667Salisbury John Glen72,89273.129.813.223.423.17.01.20.02.3CONCON
38963Taunton Deane Rebecca Pow85,46673.825.68.834.822.55.41.00.02.0CONLIB
39557Yeovil Marcus Fysh82,91171.624.97.635.524.74.70.90.01.8CONLIB
39656Dorset West Oliver Letwin79,04375.427.39.831.822.65.60.90.02.0CONLIB
40646Somerton and Frome David Warburton84,43575.328.19.430.223.16.21.00.02.1CONLIB
40746Tewkesbury Laurence Robertson81,44272.530.311.624.324.16.41.10.02.2CONCON
41141Thornbury and Yate Luke Hall67,92774.625.97.039.720.54.30.70.01.8CONLIB
42230Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson65,05474.227.97.734.223.44.20.80.01.8CONLIB
42429Devizes Claire Perry72,18470.132.311.720.225.17.31.20.02.2CONCON
42825Cotswolds, The Geoffrey Clifton-Brown80,44674.230.910.027.122.56.31.00.02.2CONCON
42924Wiltshire North James Gray71,40875.230.79.727.922.66.01.00.02.1CONCON
43419Dorset North Simon Hoare76,38573.032.110.322.925.95.81.00.02.1CONCON
44310Christchurch Christopher Chope70,32972.034.311.117.728.35.51.00.02.1CONCON
4485Devon East Hugo Swire82,38273.339.210.116.625.55.41.00.02.1CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.