South West: Majority Sorted Seats

South West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 51.4%47 46.3%02-245
LAB 29.1%7 27.0%00+07
LIB 15.0%1 16.0%20+23
UKIP 1.1%0 5.2%00+00
Green 2.3%0 4.1%00+00
Minor 1.2%0 1.4%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bristol West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Christchurch, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Swindon North (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bristol North West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
33536Bristol West Thangam Debbonaire92,98677.
126443Bristol South Karin Smyth83,00965.525.557.
129440Exeter Ben Bradshaw77,32971.727.759.
143426Bristol East Kerry McCarthy72,41470.
194375Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Luke Pollard76,58458.334.851.
218351Bristol North West Darren Jones75,43171.736.748.
248321Stroud David Drew82,84977.040.844.
282287Camborne and Redruth George Eustice67,46271.842.341.
291278Swindon South Robert Buckland72,39170.843.
300269Truro and Falmouth Sarah Newton74,69175.839.235.416.
306263Filton and Bradley Stoke Jack Lopresti72,56969.944.839.
312257Gloucester Richard Graham82,96365.
316253Plymouth Moor View Johnny Mercer69,34265.546.738.
329240Swindon North Justin Tomlinson80,19468.548.536.
331238Kingswood Chris Skidmore69,42670.249.737.
338231Bournemouth East Tobias Ellwood74,59165.246.733.
342227Bournemouth West Conor Burns73,19560.848.433.
350219Forest of Dean Mark Harper70,89873.
351218Somerset North East Jacob Rees-Mogg71,35075.748.532.
364205Weston-Super-Mare John Penrose82,16068.748.030.410.
364204Bath Wera Hobhouse66,76974.330.613.
365204St Austell and Newquay Steve Double78,61869.044.426.722.
374195Dorset South Richard Drax72,32371.851.
405164Bridgwater and West Somerset Ian Liddell-Grainger89,29465.350.026.311.
407162Totnes Sarah Wollaston68,91372.948.524.513.
408161Devon Central Mel Stride74,37077.848.924.712.
414155Somerset North Liam Fox80,53877.049.124.310.
421147St Ives Derek Thomas67,46275.938.012.643.
422147Poole Robert Syms73,81167.552.827.
437132Devon South West Gary Streeter71,26274.254.727.
453116Devon North Peter Heaton-Jones75,78473.540.711.
456113Salisbury John Glen72,89273.152.923.
460109Cornwall South East Sheryll Murray71,89674.050.320.320.
466103Newton Abbot Anne Marie Morris71,72272.050.319.921.
467102Wiltshire South West Andrew Murrison76,89871.254.824.
47396Tiverton and Honiton Neil Parish80,73171.656.
47891Torbay Kevin Foster75,93667.447.916.
48287Devon West and Torridge Geoffrey Cox80,52773.951.419.418.
48980Chippenham Michelle Donelan76,43274.849.617.426.
49870Cheltenham Alex Chalk78,87572.341.58.443.
50069Devon East Hugo Swire82,38273.343.410.
50168Taunton Deane Rebecca Pow85,46673.847.713.628.
50267Dorset West Oliver Letwin79,04375.450.416.
50663Wells James Heappey82,44973.845.010.438.
51059Cornwall North Scott Mann68,85074.045.610.737.
51653Tewkesbury Laurence Robertson81,44272.554.919.514.
52643Somerton and Frome David Warburton84,43575.351.815.322.
53732Yeovil Marcus Fysh82,91171.649.311.
54029Devizes Claire Perry72,18470.157.618.710.
54425Thornbury and Yate Luke Hall67,92774.650.110.732.
54623Cotswolds, The Geoffrey Clifton-Brown80,44674.255.515.917.
54722Wiltshire North James Gray71,40875.255.215.518.
55415Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson65,05474.254.111.828.
55712Dorset North Simon Hoare76,38573.059.816.514.
5672Christchurch Christopher Chope70,32972.064.417.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.