South West: Sorted Seats

South West Prediction

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	28.2%	11	20.5%	1	11	-10	1
LAB	24.5%	24	18.3%	0	14	-14	10
LIB	24.7%	22	21.7%	0	6	-6	16
Reform	13.8%	0	29.7%	30	0	+30	30
Green	7.4%	1	9.4%	0	0	+0	1
Other	1.4%	0	0.5%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Bristol North West' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Dorset Mid and North Poole', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Dorset Mid and North Poole (prediction: LIB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bristol North West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2024	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	MIN %	OTH %	2024 Win	Pred Win
46	113	Bristol North West	Darren Jones	74,869	64.7	9.7	36.8	13.5	21.7	17.8	0.0	0.5	LAB	LAB
63	96	Bristol East	Kerry McCarthy	75,917	60.7	8.0	33.2	11.2	17.1	29.6	0.0	1.0	LAB	LAB
77	82	Plymouth Sutton and Devonport	Luke Pollard	75,313	55.9	11.5	34.6	11.2	30.6	10.3	1.0	0.7	LAB	LAB
77	81	Bristol Central	Carla Denyer	62,735	69.1	2.7	25.8	8.3	9.8	53.1	0.0	0.4	Green	Green
80	79	Bristol South	Karin Smyth	75,533	57.5	8.1	30.7	10.9	26.8	22.9	0.0	0.5	LAB	LAB
85	74	Bristol North East	Damien Egan	70,076	59.9	10.7	32.8	10.5	27.3	17.8	0.0	1.0	LAB	LAB
87	72	Exeter	Steve Race	67,840	59.2	11.3	33.3	14.4	24.8	15.6	0.0	0.7	LAB	LAB
105	54	Stroud	Simon Joseph Opher	77,912	70.9	17.4	32.9	10.7	26.6	12.0	0.0	0.4	LAB	LAB
111	48	Filton and Bradley Stoke	Claire Hazelgrove	77,584	64.9	18.3	31.6	11.3	27.5	11.0	0.0	0.4	LAB	LAB
113	46	Truro and Falmouth	Jayne Kirkham	73,082	68.8	16.4	29.5	15.6	28.6	9.3	0.0	0.5	LAB	LAB
118	41	Swindon South	Heidi Alexander	72,596	61.7	19.5	31.7	9.5	30.0	8.8	0.0	0.5	LAB	LAB
119	39	Camborne and Redruth	Perran Moon	74,402	64.2	15.5	27.4	12.4	36.2	7.8	0.0	0.6	LAB	Reform
127	31	Bournemouth East	Tom Hayes	72,354	62.1	19.6	27.8	11.7	30.5	9.5	0.0	0.9	LAB	Reform
130	28	Bath	Wera Hobhouse	69,655	69.1	11.6	18.1	34.7	20.1	14.1	0.5	1.0	LIB	LIB
130	28	Somerset North East and Hanham	Dan Norris	73,887	69.2	22.6	27.6	11.5	29.6	8.5	0.0	0.3	LAB	Reform
133	25	Weston-super-Mare	Dan Aldridge	71,396	59.4	21.8	24.6	11.6	32.9	8.8	0.0	0.2	LAB	Reform
133	25	Cornwall South East	Anna Gelderd	72,728	67.8	19.7	22.0	16.7	35.2	6.1	0.0	0.2	LAB	Reform
134	24	Plymouth Moor View	Fred Thomas	74,724	57.4	21.0	23.2	9.5	38.4	7.6	0.0	0.3	LAB	Reform
135	23	Swindon North	Will Stone	73,238	60.3	24.0	26.0	9.2	32.6	8.0	0.0	0.3	LAB	Reform
135	23	Bournemouth West	Jessica Toale	70,259	56.1	21.6	23.3	13.1	31.7	9.9	0.0	0.4	LAB	Reform
135	23	St Austell and Newquay	Noah Law	76,140	61.4	20.6	22.2	12.5	37.2	7.1	0.0	0.4	LAB	Reform
135	23	Devon Central	Mel Stride	75,385	70.9	21.3	22.6	16.5	31.6	7.8	0.0	0.2	CON	Reform
135	23	Exmouth and Exeter East	David George Reed	79,983	64.2	19.9	21.1	20.4	31.0	7.0	0.0	0.6	CON	Reform
135	23	Gloucester	Alex McIntyre	79,475	57.5	22.5	23.3	12.3	31.7	8.1	1.7	0.3	LAB	Reform
136	22	Forest of Dean	Matt Bishop	72,052	66.7	23.1	22.8	9.7	34.2	10.0	0.0	0.2	LAB	Reform
138	21	Somerset North	Sadik Al-Hassan	74,426	72.2	26.1	25.5	15.0	23.9	8.6	1.0	0.0	LAB	CON
138	20	Dorset South	Lloyd Hatton	75,924	64.6	21.9	21.3	16.3	33.5	6.7	0.0	0.3	LAB	Reform
138	20	Frome and East Somerset	Anna Sabine	70,378	66.4	16.2	12.7	28.5	30.7	11.2	0.0	0.6	LIB	Reform
138	20	Poole	Neil John Duncan-Jordan	72,509	61.4	24.9	21.2	14.0	31.6	7.7	0.0	0.5	LAB	Reform
138	20	Salisbury	John Glen	71,553	70.1	24.7	19.6	21.5	27.0	6.9	0.0	0.3	CON	Reform
138	20	Bridgwater	Ashley Fox	71,571	56.1	22.7	17.2	15.0	38.0	6.3	0.6	0.2	CON	Reform
138	20	Devon South West	Rebecca Smith	77,600	67.3	25.4	19.6	13.9	32.4	8.3	0.0	0.4	CON	Reform
140	18	Wiltshire South West	Andrew Murrison	72,809	63.4	25.3	18.5	15.5	33.2	7.1	0.0	0.4	CON	Reform
141	17	Wiltshire East	Danny Kruger	73,878	63.9	23.9	16.9	18.2	33.7	7.0	0.0	0.3	CON	Reform
141	17	St Ives	Andrew George	69,980	68.7	15.5	8.4	38.2	31.5	5.8	0.0	0.5	LIB	LIB
141	17	Torridge and Tavistock	Geoffrey Cox	74,727	68.0	22.1	14.2	21.6	34.8	6.9	0.0	0.3	CON	Reform
141	17	Taunton and Wellington	Gideon Amos	78,116	64.4	17.9	9.0	34.8	31.8	6.2	0.0	0.4	LIB	LIB
142	16	Newton Abbot	Martin Wrigley	73,885	65.0	21.7	12.3	25.3	33.4	6.6	0.0	0.7	LIB	Reform
142	16	Wells and Mendip Hills	Tessa Munt	72,051	69.9	19.1	9.1	34.9	30.1	6.3	0.0	0.6	LIB	LIB
142	16	Cotswolds North	Geoffrey Clifton-Brown	72,513	69.3	24.8	14.1	23.9	28.8	8.0	0.0	0.3	CON	Reform
142	16	Yeovil	Adam Dance	79,700	61.4	18.6	7.8	33.7	32.8	6.8	0.0	0.3	LIB	LIB
144	14	Cornwall North	Ben Maguire	76,832	67.8	19.4	7.4	34.2	34.0	4.8	0.0	0.2	LIB	LIB
145	13	Glastonbury and Somerton	Sarah Joanne Dyke	72,982	65.3	20.5	8.0	31.4	32.9	6.9	0.0	0.2	LIB	Reform
147	11	Tiverton and Minehead	Rachel Gilmour	71,843	66.1	21.6	8.0	30.5	33.1	6.7	0.0	0.2	LIB	Reform
148	10	Devon North	Ian Roome	79,079	65.0	21.8	7.7	30.8	33.0	6.4	0.0	0.4	LIB	Reform
148	10	Chippenham	Sarah Gibson	73,876	67.0	23.1	9.0	33.4	27.5	6.7	0.0	0.3	LIB	LIB
148	10	Tewkesbury	Cameron Thomas	73,458	66.1	23.8	9.4	31.2	27.4	8.0	0.0	0.2	LIB	LIB
150	8	Devon South	Caroline Voaden	70,755	69.3	23.1	7.9	34.4	29.1	5.3	0.0	0.2	LIB	LIB
150	8	Cotswolds South	Roz Savage	71,971	72.7	24.6	8.9	34.1	26.8	5.4	0.0	0.3	LIB	LIB
150	8	Thornbury and Yate	Claire Young	78,195	68.2	25.6	9.8	29.2	28.9	6.3	0.0	0.2	LIB	LIB
150	8	Honiton and Sidmouth	Richard Foord	75,537	67.1	23.6	7.7	33.3	30.3	4.8	0.0	0.3	LIB	LIB
150	8	Torbay	Steve Darling	76,179	60.5	23.8	7.8	28.6	32.7	5.8	1.4	0.0	LIB	Reform
150	8	Melksham and Devizes	Brian Mathew	71,999	71.1	25.4	9.2	30.2	28.7	6.3	0.0	0.2	LIB	LIB
151	7	Christchurch	Christopher Chope	71,064	66.6	27.5	11.3	19.4	34.7	6.2	0.0	0.9	CON	Reform
151	7	Cheltenham	Max Wilkinson	76,143	65.1	25.4	8.6	37.7	18.5	9.3	0.0	0.5	LIB	LIB
151	7	Dorset North	Simon Hoare	72,690	68.3	25.6	7.9	27.3	32.8	6.1	0.0	0.3	CON	Reform
151	7	Dorset West	Edward Morello	75,998	69.2	26.8	8.1	38.0	20.4	6.4	0.0	0.4	LIB	LIB
153	5	Dorset Mid and North Poole	Vikki Slade	75,294	65.8	29.6	8.6	33.1	21.1	7.1	0.0	0.5	LIB	LIB

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.