South West: Majority Sorted Seats

South West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 51.4%47 50.0%10+148
LAB 29.2%7 25.5%01-16
LIB 14.9%1 18.7%00+01
Brexit 0.0%0 1.0%00+00
Green 2.3%0 2.5%00+00
UKIP 1.1%0 0.0%00+00
Other 1.2%0 2.3%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bristol West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Christchurch, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Bournemouth East (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Stroud (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
13561Bristol West Thangam Debbonaire92,98677.016.462.10.02.618.
70504Exeter Ben Bradshaw77,32971.732.756.
124450Bristol South Karin Smyth83,00965.529.945.313.
135439Bristol East Kerry McCarthy72,41470.
187387Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Luke Pollard76,58466.935.341.812.
198376Bristol North West Darren Jones75,43171.740.646.
228346Stroud David Drew82,84977.045.644.
255318Bath Wera Hobhouse66,76974.326.318.749.
266308Truro and Falmouth Sarah Newton74,69175.848.
278296Swindon South Robert Buckland72,39170.851.335.313.
284290Filton and Bradley Stoke Jack Lopresti72,56969.949.531.914.
286288Camborne and Redruth George Eustice67,46271.850.332.
310264Somerset North East Jacob Rees-Mogg71,35075.746.924.923.
315259Forest of Dean Mark Harper70,89873.
318256Gloucester Richard Graham82,96365.254.531.412.
320254Totnes Sarah Wollaston68,91372.945.622.
326248Bournemouth East Tobias Ellwood74,59165.252.528.514.
329245Bournemouth West Conor Burns73,19560.853.528.914.
335239Kingswood Chris Skidmore69,42670.255.429.711.
343231Swindon North Justin Tomlinson80,19468.556.429.911.
348226Cheltenham Alex Chalk78,87572.341.914.541.
358216Somerset North Liam Fox80,53877.
360214Plymouth Moor View Johnny Mercer69,34265.558.630.
369205Weston-Super-Mare John Penrose82,16068.755.726.615.
372202St Austell and Newquay Steve Double78,61869.052.623.
377197Devon Central Mel Stride74,37077.853.723.919.
378196St Ives Derek Thomas67,46275.944.915.
384190Dorset South Richard Drax72,32371.856.826.512.
402172Chippenham Michelle Donelan76,43274.850.819.429.
417157Poole Robert Syms73,81167.556.724.
429145Salisbury John Glen72,89273.155.322.
435139Wells James Heappey82,44973.848.814.934.
438136Devon North Peter Heaton-Jones75,78473.549.
441133Cornwall South East Sheryll Murray71,89674.054.420.321.
443131Newton Abbot Anne Marie Morris71,72272.054.019.722.
444130Dorset West Oliver Letwin79,04375.452.618.327.
446128Taunton Deane Rebecca Pow85,46673.851.717.329.
450124Devon South West Gary Streeter71,26274.259.224.813.
454120Thornbury and Yate Luke Hall67,92774.650.115.334.
459115Somerton and Frome David Warburton84,43575.353.
461113Wiltshire South West Andrew Murrison76,89871.258.523.415.
463111Bridgwater and West Somerset Ian Liddell-Grainger89,29465.358.723.613.
465109Tiverton and Honiton Neil Parish80,73171.658.623.515.
474100Devon West and Torridge Geoffrey Cox80,52773.955.720.
48490Cornwall North Scott Mann68,85074.051.715.
48688Tewkesbury Laurence Robertson81,44272.557.420.419.
49084Torbay Kevin Foster75,93667.454.917.623.
49183Cotswolds, The Geoffrey Clifton-Brown80,44674.255.918.623.
50074Devon East Hugo Swire82,38273.349.611.
50173Wiltshire North James Gray71,40875.
51559Yeovil Marcus Fysh82,91171.653.414.528.
53143Devizes Claire Perry72,18470.160.420.516.
53737Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson65,05474.255.515.
54826Dorset North Simon Hoare76,38573.060.318.618.
56410Christchurch Christopher Chope70,32972.065.218.914.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.