South West: Majority Sorted Seats

South West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 51.4%47 46.3%02-245
LAB 29.1%7 27.0%00+07
LIB 15.0%1 16.0%20+23
UKIP 1.1%0 5.2%00+00
Green 2.3%0 4.1%00+00
Minor 1.2%0 1.4%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bristol West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Christchurch, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Swindon North (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bristol North West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
33536Bristol West Thangam Debbonaire92,98677.010.263.68.13.314.40.00.00.3LABLAB
126443Bristol South Karin Smyth83,00965.525.557.84.47.34.50.00.00.5LABLAB
129440Exeter Ben Bradshaw77,32971.727.759.63.94.23.80.00.00.8LABLAB
143426Bristol East Kerry McCarthy72,41470.229.258.43.84.24.10.00.00.3LABLAB
194375Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Luke Pollard76,58458.334.851.13.66.83.10.00.00.7LABLAB
218351Bristol North West Darren Jones75,43171.736.748.36.34.24.20.00.00.3LABLAB
248321Stroud David Drew82,84977.040.844.74.35.84.10.00.00.3LABLAB
282287Camborne and Redruth George Eustice67,46271.842.341.97.24.24.10.00.00.3CONCON
291278Swindon South Robert Buckland72,39170.843.241.35.16.73.40.00.00.3CONCON
300269Truro and Falmouth Sarah Newton74,69175.839.235.416.05.83.40.00.00.3CONCON
306263Filton and Bradley Stoke Jack Lopresti72,56969.944.839.47.14.24.20.00.00.3CONCON
312257Gloucester Richard Graham82,96365.245.237.86.17.03.30.00.00.6CONCON
316253Plymouth Moor View Johnny Mercer69,34265.546.738.53.18.33.10.00.00.3CONCON
329240Swindon North Justin Tomlinson80,19468.548.536.14.67.13.50.00.00.3CONCON
331238Kingswood Chris Skidmore69,42670.249.737.24.74.23.90.00.00.3CONCON
338231Bournemouth East Tobias Ellwood74,59165.246.733.27.67.14.50.00.00.9CONCON
342227Bournemouth West Conor Burns73,19560.848.433.97.74.24.70.00.01.2CONCON
350219Forest of Dean Mark Harper70,89873.049.133.65.06.64.30.00.01.4CONCON
351218Somerset North East Jacob Rees-Mogg71,35075.748.532.49.34.24.20.00.01.3CONCON
364205Weston-Super-Mare John Penrose82,16068.748.030.410.27.63.50.00.00.3CONCON
364204Bath Wera Hobhouse66,76974.330.613.048.33.94.00.00.00.2LIBLIB
365204St Austell and Newquay Steve Double78,61869.044.426.722.64.21.90.00.00.3CONCON
374195Dorset South Richard Drax72,32371.851.031.37.04.26.30.00.00.3CONCON
405164Bridgwater and West Somerset Ian Liddell-Grainger89,29465.350.026.311.97.83.70.00.00.3CONCON
407162Totnes Sarah Wollaston68,91372.948.524.513.96.76.10.00.00.3CONCON
408161Devon Central Mel Stride74,37077.848.924.712.86.54.60.01.51.1CONCON
414155Somerset North Liam Fox80,53877.049.124.310.74.25.10.06.30.3CONCON
421147St Ives Derek Thomas67,46275.938.012.643.63.81.70.00.00.2CONLIB
422147Poole Robert Syms73,81167.552.827.110.04.24.50.00.01.4CONCON
437132Devon South West Gary Streeter71,26274.254.727.66.27.14.10.00.00.3CONCON
453116Devon North Peter Heaton-Jones75,78473.540.711.239.05.93.00.00.00.2CONCON
456113Salisbury John Glen72,89273.152.923.212.36.44.10.00.01.0CONCON
460109Cornwall South East Sheryll Murray71,89674.050.320.320.54.24.40.00.00.3CONCON
466103Newton Abbot Anne Marie Morris71,72272.050.319.921.64.23.70.00.00.3CONCON
467102Wiltshire South West Andrew Murrison76,89871.254.824.210.94.24.50.00.01.3CONCON
47396Tiverton and Honiton Neil Parish80,73171.656.224.89.14.25.40.00.00.3CONCON
47891Torbay Kevin Foster75,93667.447.916.126.26.53.10.00.00.3CONCON
48287Devon West and Torridge Geoffrey Cox80,52773.951.419.418.84.24.60.00.01.6CONCON
48980Chippenham Michelle Donelan76,43274.849.617.426.74.21.90.00.00.3CONCON
49870Cheltenham Alex Chalk78,87572.341.58.443.13.53.30.00.00.2CONLIB
50069Devon East Hugo Swire82,38273.343.410.03.45.61.70.035.20.7CONCON
50168Taunton Deane Rebecca Pow85,46673.847.713.628.76.23.60.00.00.2CONCON
50267Dorset West Oliver Letwin79,04375.450.416.224.54.14.60.00.00.3CONCON
50663Wells James Heappey82,44973.845.010.438.63.71.70.00.00.8CONCON
51059Cornwall North Scott Mann68,85074.045.610.737.53.71.70.00.00.9CONCON
51653Tewkesbury Laurence Robertson81,44272.554.919.514.66.24.60.00.00.3CONCON
52643Somerton and Frome David Warburton84,43575.351.815.322.04.05.00.00.01.8CONCON
53732Yeovil Marcus Fysh82,91171.649.311.030.73.73.50.00.01.8CONCON
54029Devizes Claire Perry72,18470.157.618.710.47.65.10.00.00.7CONCON
54425Thornbury and Yate Luke Hall67,92774.650.110.732.43.72.90.00.00.2CONCON
54623Cotswolds, The Geoffrey Clifton-Brown80,44674.255.515.917.46.14.80.00.00.4CONCON
54722Wiltshire North James Gray71,40875.255.215.518.85.74.00.00.00.9CONCON
55415Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson65,05474.254.111.828.43.81.70.00.00.2CONCON
55712Dorset North Simon Hoare76,38573.059.816.514.64.14.80.00.00.3CONCON
5672Christchurch Christopher Chope70,32972.064.417.69.04.24.50.00.00.3CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.