South West: Majority Sorted Seats

South West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 51.4%47 50.0%10+148
LAB 29.2%7 25.5%01-16
LIB 14.9%1 18.7%00+01
Brexit 0.0%0 1.0%00+00
Green 2.3%0 2.5%00+00
UKIP 1.1%0 0.0%00+00
Other 1.2%0 2.3%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bristol West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Christchurch, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Bournemouth East (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Stroud (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Brexit
%
Green
%
NAT
%
UKIP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
13561Bristol West Thangam Debbonaire92,98677.016.462.10.02.618.90.00.00.00.0LABLAB
70504Exeter Ben Bradshaw77,32971.732.756.90.06.03.00.00.00.01.4LABLAB
124450Bristol South Karin Smyth83,00965.529.945.313.47.34.20.00.00.00.0LABLAB
135439Bristol East Kerry McCarthy72,41470.232.246.211.96.43.40.00.00.00.0LABLAB
187387Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Luke Pollard76,58466.935.341.812.57.03.30.00.00.00.0LABLAB
198376Bristol North West Darren Jones75,43171.740.646.010.90.02.40.00.00.00.0LABLAB
228346Stroud David Drew82,84977.045.644.90.03.34.20.00.00.01.9LABCON
255318Bath Wera Hobhouse66,76974.326.318.749.13.50.00.00.00.02.4LIBLIB
266308Truro and Falmouth Sarah Newton74,69175.848.035.112.20.02.30.00.00.02.4CONCON
278296Swindon South Robert Buckland72,39170.851.335.313.40.00.00.00.00.00.0CONCON
284290Filton and Bradley Stoke Jack Lopresti72,56969.949.531.914.00.02.70.00.00.01.9CONCON
286288Camborne and Redruth George Eustice67,46271.850.332.213.20.02.30.00.00.01.9CONCON
310264Somerset North East Jacob Rees-Mogg71,35075.746.924.923.70.02.20.00.00.02.3CONCON
315259Forest of Dean Mark Harper70,89873.060.137.50.00.01.90.00.00.00.5CONCON
318256Gloucester Richard Graham82,96365.254.531.412.00.02.10.00.00.00.0CONCON
320254Totnes Sarah Wollaston68,91372.945.622.229.50.00.00.00.00.02.6CONCON
326248Bournemouth East Tobias Ellwood74,59165.252.528.514.00.03.00.00.00.02.1CONCON
329245Bournemouth West Conor Burns73,19560.853.528.914.40.03.10.00.00.00.0CONCON
335239Kingswood Chris Skidmore69,42670.255.429.711.20.02.10.00.00.01.6CONCON
343231Swindon North Justin Tomlinson80,19468.556.429.911.60.02.10.00.00.00.0CONCON
348226Cheltenham Alex Chalk78,87572.341.914.541.80.00.00.00.00.01.9CONCON
358216Somerset North Liam Fox80,53877.052.224.021.00.02.90.00.00.00.0CONCON
360214Plymouth Moor View Johnny Mercer69,34265.558.630.29.50.01.70.00.00.00.0CONCON
369205Weston-Super-Mare John Penrose82,16068.755.726.615.60.02.00.00.00.00.0CONCON
372202St Austell and Newquay Steve Double78,61869.052.623.220.90.01.40.00.00.01.9CONCON
377197Devon Central Mel Stride74,37077.853.723.919.70.02.70.00.00.00.0CONCON
378196St Ives Derek Thomas67,46275.944.915.036.40.01.30.00.00.02.4CONCON
384190Dorset South Richard Drax72,32371.856.826.512.00.03.00.00.00.01.7CONCON
402172Chippenham Michelle Donelan76,43274.850.819.429.90.00.00.00.00.00.0CONCON
417157Poole Robert Syms73,81167.556.724.214.60.02.40.00.00.02.1CONCON
429145Salisbury John Glen72,89273.155.322.218.10.02.30.00.00.02.0CONCON
435139Wells James Heappey82,44973.848.814.934.30.00.00.00.00.02.0CONCON
438136Devon North Peter Heaton-Jones75,78473.549.015.132.40.01.70.00.00.01.9CONCON
441133Cornwall South East Sheryll Murray71,89674.054.420.321.10.02.20.00.00.01.9CONCON
443131Newton Abbot Anne Marie Morris71,72272.054.019.722.50.01.90.00.00.01.9CONCON
444130Dorset West Oliver Letwin79,04375.452.618.327.00.02.20.00.00.00.0CONCON
446128Taunton Deane Rebecca Pow85,46673.851.717.329.10.00.00.00.00.01.9CONCON
450124Devon South West Gary Streeter71,26274.259.224.813.80.02.20.00.00.00.0CONCON
454120Thornbury and Yate Luke Hall67,92774.650.115.334.60.00.00.00.00.00.0CONCON
459115Somerton and Frome David Warburton84,43575.353.218.126.20.02.60.00.00.00.0CONCON
461113Wiltshire South West Andrew Murrison76,89871.258.523.415.70.02.40.00.00.00.0CONCON
463111Bridgwater and West Somerset Ian Liddell-Grainger89,29465.358.723.613.80.02.10.00.00.01.9CONCON
465109Tiverton and Honiton Neil Parish80,73171.658.623.515.30.02.60.00.00.00.0CONCON
474100Devon West and Torridge Geoffrey Cox80,52773.955.720.019.90.02.30.00.00.02.1CONCON
48490Cornwall North Scott Mann68,85074.051.715.131.30.00.00.00.00.02.0CONCON
48688Tewkesbury Laurence Robertson81,44272.557.420.419.80.02.30.00.00.00.0CONCON
49084Torbay Kevin Foster75,93667.454.917.623.80.01.70.00.00.01.9CONCON
49183Cotswolds, The Geoffrey Clifton-Brown80,44674.255.918.623.10.02.40.00.00.00.0CONCON
50074Devon East Hugo Swire82,38273.349.611.87.20.01.50.00.028.21.6CONCON
50173Wiltshire North James Gray71,40875.256.118.223.40.02.20.00.00.00.0CONCON
51559Yeovil Marcus Fysh82,91171.653.414.528.30.01.70.00.00.02.0CONCON
53143Devizes Claire Perry72,18470.160.420.516.20.02.90.00.00.00.0CONCON
53737Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson65,05474.255.515.228.10.01.20.00.00.00.0CONCON
54826Dorset North Simon Hoare76,38573.060.318.618.80.02.30.00.00.00.0CONCON
56410Christchurch Christopher Chope70,32972.065.218.914.00.01.90.00.00.00.0CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.