South West: Majority Sorted Seats

South West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 51.4%47 29.6%011-1136
LAB 29.2%7 23.0%60+613
LIB 14.9%1 14.1%50+56
UKIP 1.1%0 5.1%00+00
Green 2.3%0 4.3%00+00
ChUK 0.0%0 6.1%00+00
Brexit 0.0%0 15.8%00+00
Minor 1.2%0 1.9%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bristol West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Devon East, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Bournemouth West (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bristol North West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
NAT
%
ChUK
%
Brexit
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
45505Bristol West Thangam Debbonaire92,98677.09.047.610.73.411.40.06.610.40.00.9LABLAB
135415Exeter Ben Bradshaw77,32971.719.543.67.64.05.20.06.012.50.01.6LABLAB
140410Bristol South Karin Smyth83,00965.517.541.27.35.05.60.05.915.60.01.9LABLAB
145405Bristol East Kerry McCarthy72,41470.220.443.67.04.14.70.05.812.80.01.5LABLAB
206344Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Luke Pollard76,58466.921.736.97.05.25.40.05.716.10.02.0LABLAB
220330Bristol North West Darren Jones75,43171.724.237.88.64.14.70.06.112.90.01.6LABLAB
280270Stroud David Drew82,84977.027.634.27.34.54.70.05.914.00.01.8LABLAB
288262Swindon South Robert Buckland72,39170.827.332.37.55.04.70.05.815.60.01.9CONLAB
299251Camborne and Redruth George Eustice67,46271.827.431.68.35.04.10.05.915.60.02.1CONLAB
309241Truro and Falmouth Sarah Newton74,69175.826.228.313.84.64.50.06.514.40.01.8CONLAB
310240Filton and Bradley Stoke Jack Lopresti72,56969.929.231.18.94.54.40.06.114.00.01.8CONLAB
313237Gloucester Richard Graham82,96365.228.129.57.55.64.60.05.717.10.01.9CONLAB
314236Plymouth Moor View Johnny Mercer69,34265.527.328.65.36.74.10.05.020.50.02.4CONLAB
328222Bournemouth West Conor Burns73,19560.828.427.08.75.64.80.06.017.40.02.2CONCON
330220Bournemouth East Tobias Ellwood74,59165.228.126.58.85.65.50.06.017.30.02.1CONCON
332218Swindon North Justin Tomlinson80,19468.530.028.36.85.64.40.05.617.20.02.1CONCON
340210Kingswood Chris Skidmore69,42670.231.929.37.05.03.80.05.715.40.02.0CONCON
362188Forest of Dean Mark Harper70,89873.031.026.06.75.94.60.05.518.10.02.1CONCON
363187Weston-Super-Mare John Penrose82,16068.729.524.49.75.84.60.05.917.80.02.2CONCON
369181Somerset North East Jacob Rees-Mogg71,35075.731.926.49.74.94.20.06.015.10.01.9CONCON
370179Bath Wera Hobhouse66,76974.319.113.443.13.13.80.06.310.10.01.1LIBLIB
371179St Austell and Newquay Steve Double78,61869.028.722.916.04.93.30.06.715.50.02.1CONCON
378172Dorset South Richard Drax72,32371.831.224.97.85.94.20.05.618.10.02.2CONCON
394156Bridgwater and West Somerset Ian Liddell-Grainger89,29465.329.921.810.06.34.30.05.919.40.02.3CONCON
406144Totnes Sarah Wollaston68,91372.930.121.111.75.85.10.06.317.90.02.1CONCON
408142Poole Robert Syms73,81167.532.323.09.65.64.20.06.017.20.02.2CONCON
424126Devon Central Mel Stride74,37077.831.921.511.65.44.80.06.216.60.02.0CONCON
439110St Ives Derek Thomas67,46275.923.812.637.43.92.50.05.912.40.01.5CONLIB
448102Somerset North Liam Fox80,53877.034.822.811.24.64.30.06.414.30.01.8CONCON
449101Devon South West Gary Streeter71,26274.234.822.87.65.54.50.05.816.90.02.1CONCON
45199Salisbury John Glen72,89273.133.020.911.25.54.60.06.116.90.02.0CONCON
46486Wiltshire South West Andrew Murrison76,89871.233.721.210.05.64.00.05.917.50.02.1CONCON
47178Devon North Peter Heaton-Jones75,78473.524.711.632.85.03.20.05.615.50.01.7CONLIB
47476Cornwall South East Sheryll Murray71,89674.032.018.915.25.33.70.06.516.50.02.0CONCON
47674Torbay Kevin Foster75,93667.429.516.217.45.94.00.06.718.30.02.2CONCON
47872Tiverton and Honiton Neil Parish80,73171.634.921.59.25.54.00.05.916.90.02.2CONCON
47971Newton Abbot Anne Marie Morris71,72272.032.218.815.95.13.60.06.615.80.02.0CONCON
48466Devon West and Torridge Geoffrey Cox80,52773.932.318.014.15.64.00.06.417.50.02.1CONCON
48961Chippenham Michelle Donelan76,43274.832.618.019.64.33.10.07.113.60.01.7CONCON
48960Cheltenham Alex Chalk78,87572.325.110.438.23.83.10.06.012.00.01.4CONLIB
49654Taunton Deane Rebecca Pow85,46673.830.314.819.75.44.10.06.916.90.01.9CONCON
50446Dorset West Oliver Letwin79,04375.432.516.518.05.03.80.06.815.50.01.9CONCON
50743Devizes Claire Perry72,18470.134.117.99.66.34.80.05.819.30.02.2CONCON
50742Cornwall North Scott Mann68,85074.027.611.432.24.62.50.05.614.40.01.8CONLIB
50842Tewkesbury Laurence Robertson81,44272.534.718.512.25.44.30.06.216.80.02.0CONCON
50841Wells James Heappey82,44973.827.811.334.04.12.60.05.812.90.01.6CONLIB
51832Somerton and Frome David Warburton84,43575.333.115.816.45.34.30.06.616.60.01.9CONCON
52327Yeovil Marcus Fysh82,91171.631.213.019.95.73.60.06.817.70.02.0CONCON
52723Cotswolds, The Geoffrey Clifton-Brown80,44674.234.816.314.15.34.50.06.516.50.01.9CONCON
53218Wiltshire North James Gray71,40875.235.116.014.75.24.20.06.516.30.01.9CONCON
53614Thornbury and Yate Luke Hall67,92774.633.513.022.64.43.30.07.414.00.01.7CONCON
53713Dorset North Simon Hoare76,38573.037.216.612.05.43.60.06.116.90.02.1CONCON
5437Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson65,05474.235.513.719.94.62.80.07.014.60.01.8CONCON
5464Christchurch Christopher Chope70,32972.039.917.18.85.63.40.05.817.20.02.2CONCON
5482Devon East Hugo Swire82,38273.343.016.07.05.44.00.05.816.70.02.2CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.