| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 28.2% | 11 | 30.7% | 10 | 0 | +10 | 21 |
| LAB | 24.5% | 24 | 17.5% | 0 | 9 | -9 | 15 |
| LIB | 24.7% | 22 | 24.3% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 21 |
| Reform | 13.8% | 0 | 18.2% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Green | 7.4% | 1 | 9.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| Other | 1.4% | 0 | 0.3% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Bristol North West' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Dorset Mid and North Poole', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Bournemouth West (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bristol Central (prediction: Green).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | CON Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 419 | Bristol North West | Darren Jones | 74,869 | 64.7 | 16.4 | 41.9 | 8.2 | 14.5 | 18.9 | 0.0 | 0.1 | LAB | LAB |
| 135 | 384 | Plymouth Sutton and Devonport | Luke Pollard | 75,313 | 55.9 | 19.2 | 41.7 | 5.5 | 23.0 | 9.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 146 | 373 | Bristol South | Karin Smyth | 75,533 | 57.5 | 13.8 | 34.9 | 6.0 | 18.6 | 26.6 | 0.0 | 0.1 | LAB | LAB |
| 153 | 366 | Bristol East | Kerry McCarthy | 75,917 | 60.7 | 17.3 | 37.3 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 32.9 | 0.0 | 0.8 | LAB | LAB |
| 156 | 363 | Bristol North East | Damien Egan | 70,076 | 59.9 | 18.0 | 37.5 | 4.5 | 18.6 | 20.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 161 | 358 | Exeter | Steve Race | 67,840 | 59.2 | 18.4 | 37.6 | 10.0 | 17.2 | 16.5 | 0.0 | 0.3 | LAB | LAB |
| 167 | 351 | Bristol Central | Carla Denyer | 62,735 | 69.1 | 7.0 | 24.9 | 2.6 | 7.4 | 58.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | Green | Green |
| 225 | 294 | Swindon South | Heidi Alexander | 72,596 | 61.7 | 29.5 | 40.7 | 3.9 | 18.4 | 7.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 230 | 289 | Stroud | Simon Joseph Opher | 77,912 | 70.9 | 28.2 | 38.6 | 5.0 | 15.9 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | LAB | LAB |
| 232 | 287 | Filton and Bradley Stoke | Claire Hazelgrove | 77,584 | 64.9 | 28.0 | 37.7 | 6.8 | 17.7 | 9.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 263 | 256 | Truro and Falmouth | Jayne Kirkham | 73,082 | 68.8 | 27.8 | 33.6 | 12.6 | 17.1 | 8.7 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 264 | 255 | Camborne and Redruth | Perran Moon | 74,402 | 64.2 | 27.0 | 32.8 | 8.2 | 23.8 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 0.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 286 | 233 | Plymouth Moor View | Fred Thomas | 74,724 | 57.4 | 30.4 | 33.5 | 3.9 | 26.7 | 5.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 303 | 216 | Bournemouth East | Tom Hayes | 72,354 | 62.1 | 31.8 | 33.0 | 6.5 | 19.7 | 8.3 | 0.0 | 0.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 309 | 210 | Weston-super-Mare | Dan Aldridge | 71,396 | 59.4 | 30.4 | 30.7 | 8.5 | 22.5 | 7.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 310 | 209 | Somerset North East and Hanham | Dan Norris | 73,887 | 69.2 | 32.7 | 32.8 | 7.2 | 19.1 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 325 | 194 | Swindon North | Will Stone | 73,238 | 60.3 | 33.8 | 32.9 | 4.5 | 21.6 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LAB | CON |
| 333 | 186 | Bournemouth West | Jessica Toale | 70,259 | 56.1 | 30.8 | 28.7 | 10.5 | 21.5 | 8.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LAB | CON |
| 338 | 181 | Gloucester | Alex McIntyre | 79,475 | 57.5 | 31.3 | 28.3 | 10.0 | 21.0 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 0.3 | LAB | CON |
| 358 | 161 | St Austell and Newquay | Noah Law | 76,140 | 61.4 | 31.7 | 26.4 | 9.8 | 24.8 | 6.9 | 0.0 | 0.4 | LAB | CON |
| 364 | 155 | Cornwall South East | Anna Gelderd | 72,728 | 67.8 | 30.4 | 24.1 | 16.4 | 23.4 | 5.7 | 0.0 | 0.1 | LAB | CON |
| 378 | 141 | Dorset South | Lloyd Hatton | 75,924 | 64.6 | 32.4 | 24.2 | 15.9 | 21.3 | 6.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LAB | CON |
| 386 | 133 | Somerset North | Sadik Al-Hassan | 74,426 | 72.2 | 36.8 | 27.9 | 12.8 | 14.7 | 7.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 386 | 132 | Bath | Wera Hobhouse | 69,655 | 69.1 | 19.2 | 10.3 | 40.9 | 13.9 | 14.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | LIB | LIB |
| 391 | 128 | Forest of Dean | Matt Bishop | 72,052 | 66.7 | 35.8 | 26.3 | 5.2 | 21.3 | 11.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 397 | 122 | Devon Central | Mel Stride | 75,385 | 70.9 | 34.1 | 23.7 | 15.0 | 19.2 | 7.9 | 0.0 | 0.2 | CON | CON |
| 398 | 121 | Poole | Neil John Duncan-Jordan | 72,509 | 61.4 | 34.7 | 24.1 | 11.9 | 22.0 | 6.9 | 0.0 | 0.4 | LAB | CON |
| 400 | 119 | Exmouth and Exeter East | David George Reed | 79,983 | 64.2 | 31.6 | 20.7 | 21.7 | 19.1 | 6.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 | CON | CON |
| 416 | 103 | Bridgwater | Ashley Fox | 71,571 | 56.1 | 33.2 | 19.5 | 14.0 | 26.8 | 6.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | CON | CON |
| 423 | 96 | Devon South West | Rebecca Smith | 77,600 | 67.3 | 37.0 | 22.5 | 10.2 | 22.8 | 7.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | CON | CON |
| 447 | 72 | Wiltshire South West | Andrew Murrison | 72,809 | 63.4 | 36.7 | 19.1 | 15.2 | 22.1 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | CON | CON |
| 448 | 71 | Salisbury | John Glen | 71,553 | 70.1 | 36.8 | 18.8 | 23.1 | 15.2 | 5.9 | 0.0 | 0.2 | CON | CON |
| 459 | 60 | Wiltshire East | Danny Kruger | 73,878 | 63.9 | 38.2 | 18.0 | 16.9 | 21.2 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | CON | CON |
| 463 | 56 | Torridge and Tavistock | Geoffrey Cox | 74,727 | 68.0 | 34.1 | 13.4 | 23.4 | 22.6 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | CON | CON |
| 463 | 55 | Frome and East Somerset | Anna Sabine | 70,378 | 66.4 | 26.8 | 6.0 | 35.0 | 19.0 | 12.8 | 0.0 | 0.4 | LIB | LIB |
| 472 | 46 | Newton Abbot | Martin Wrigley | 73,885 | 65.0 | 30.4 | 7.1 | 31.2 | 23.9 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 0.8 | LIB | LIB |
| 476 | 42 | St Ives | Andrew George | 69,980 | 68.7 | 25.2 | 1.3 | 51.6 | 16.7 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 0.3 | LIB | LIB |
| 476 | 42 | Yeovil | Adam Dance | 79,700 | 61.4 | 25.3 | 1.4 | 48.1 | 18.9 | 6.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LIB | LIB |
| 480 | 38 | Taunton and Wellington | Gideon Amos | 78,116 | 64.4 | 26.4 | 1.6 | 47.9 | 19.2 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 484 | 34 | Wells and Mendip Hills | Tessa Munt | 72,051 | 69.9 | 27.5 | 1.6 | 46.4 | 17.9 | 5.8 | 0.0 | 0.7 | LIB | LIB |
| 487 | 31 | Cornwall North | Ben Maguire | 76,832 | 67.8 | 28.7 | 1.3 | 47.4 | 19.0 | 3.6 | 0.0 | 0.1 | LIB | LIB |
| 491 | 28 | Cotswolds North | Geoffrey Clifton-Brown | 72,513 | 69.3 | 37.3 | 9.4 | 27.6 | 17.6 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | CON | CON |
| 493 | 25 | Glastonbury and Somerton | Sarah Joanne Dyke | 72,982 | 65.3 | 30.5 | 1.5 | 42.3 | 19.0 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 494 | 24 | Chippenham | Sarah Gibson | 73,876 | 67.0 | 31.3 | 1.8 | 45.1 | 16.3 | 5.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LIB | LIB |
| 494 | 24 | Torbay | Steve Darling | 76,179 | 60.5 | 31.2 | 1.6 | 40.6 | 21.9 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 495 | 23 | Devon North | Ian Roome | 79,079 | 65.0 | 31.2 | 1.4 | 42.0 | 19.3 | 5.8 | 0.0 | 0.3 | LIB | LIB |
| 496 | 22 | Tewkesbury | Cameron Thomas | 73,458 | 66.1 | 32.0 | 2.0 | 42.3 | 16.3 | 7.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | LIB | LIB |
| 500 | 19 | Christchurch | Christopher Chope | 71,064 | 66.6 | 39.3 | 8.7 | 19.6 | 25.3 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 0.9 | CON | CON |
| 502 | 16 | Tiverton and Minehead | Rachel Gilmour | 71,843 | 66.1 | 33.4 | 2.1 | 38.1 | 20.3 | 6.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 502 | 16 | Devon South | Caroline Voaden | 70,755 | 69.3 | 33.0 | 1.4 | 45.5 | 15.9 | 4.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 505 | 13 | Honiton and Sidmouth | Richard Foord | 75,537 | 67.1 | 34.0 | 1.3 | 45.0 | 15.6 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LIB | LIB |
| 507 | 11 | Thornbury and Yate | Claire Young | 78,195 | 68.2 | 35.6 | 2.1 | 38.5 | 18.2 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 509 | 9 | Melksham and Devizes | Brian Mathew | 71,999 | 71.1 | 36.6 | 2.0 | 38.7 | 17.0 | 5.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 511 | 7 | Cotswolds South | Roz Savage | 71,971 | 72.7 | 36.5 | 1.7 | 43.5 | 13.7 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LIB | LIB |
| 511 | 7 | Cheltenham | Max Wilkinson | 76,143 | 65.1 | 37.8 | 1.2 | 50.2 | 3.1 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 0.3 | LIB | LIB |
| 514 | 5 | Dorset North | Simon Hoare | 72,690 | 68.3 | 39.0 | 2.0 | 33.0 | 20.1 | 5.7 | 0.0 | 0.2 | CON | CON |
| 514 | 4 | Dorset West | Edward Morello | 75,998 | 69.2 | 38.4 | 1.3 | 50.9 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 0.0 | 0.3 | LIB | LIB |
| 517 | 2 | Dorset Mid and North Poole | Vikki Slade | 75,294 | 65.8 | 43.3 | 2.1 | 42.8 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 0.4 | LIB | CON |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.