South West: Majority Sorted Seats

South West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 51.4%47 47.0%12-146
LAB 29.2%7 22.9%01-16
LIB 14.9%1 17.2%20+23
UKIP 1.1%0 4.5%00+00
Green 2.3%0 4.4%00+00
Minor 1.2%0 4.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bristol West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Christchurch, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Swindon North (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bristol North West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
33538Bristol West Thangam Debbonaire92,98677.010.759.
128443Bristol South Karin Smyth83,00965.526.
131440Exeter Ben Bradshaw77,32971.728.455.
143428Bristol East Kerry McCarthy72,41470.229.953.
195376Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Luke Pollard76,58466.935.546.
218353Bristol North West Darren Jones75,43171.737.443.
251320Stroud David Drew82,84977.041.540.
284287Camborne and Redruth George Eustice67,46271.843.
292279Swindon South Robert Buckland72,39170.843.936.
301270Truro and Falmouth Sarah Newton74,69175.839.930.817.
307264Filton and Bradley Stoke Jack Lopresti72,56969.945.534.
315256Gloucester Richard Graham82,96365.245.933.
317254Plymouth Moor View Johnny Mercer69,34265.547.434.
333238Swindon North Justin Tomlinson80,19468.549.
335236Kingswood Chris Skidmore69,42670.250.432.
340231Bournemouth East Tobias Ellwood74,59165.247.428.
344227Bournemouth West Conor Burns73,19560.849.
351220Forest of Dean Mark Harper70,89873.049.829.
355216Somerset North East Jacob Rees-Mogg71,35075.749.227.910.
356214Bath Wera Hobhouse66,76974.331.39.749.
367204Weston-Super-Mare John Penrose82,16068.748.725.911.
368203St Austell and Newquay Steve Double78,61869.
382189Dorset South Richard Drax72,32371.851.726.
407164Bridgwater and West Somerset Ian Liddell-Grainger89,29465.350.721.813.
410161Totnes Sarah Wollaston68,91372.949.
412158St Ives Derek Thomas67,46275.938.79.444.
414157Devon Central Mel Stride74,37077.849.620.
419152Somerset North Liam Fox80,53877.049.819.812.
428143Poole Robert Syms73,81167.553.522.611.
444127Devon South West Gary Streeter71,26274.255.423.
449122Devon North Peter Heaton-Jones75,78473.541.48.439.
464107Salisbury John Glen72,89273.153.618.713.
469102Cornwall South East Sheryll Murray71,89674.051.015.821.
470101Newton Abbot Anne Marie Morris71,72272.051.015.422.
47398Wiltshire South West Andrew Murrison76,89871.255.519.712.
47397Cheltenham Alex Chalk78,87572.342.26.343.
48190Torbay Kevin Foster75,93667.448.612.
48289Devon East Hugo Swire82,38273.344.
48487Tiverton and Honiton Neil Parish80,73171.656.920.310.
49576Devon West and Torridge Geoffrey Cox80,52773.952.114.920.
49873Chippenham Michelle Donelan76,43274.850.313.
50566Wells James Heappey82,44973.845.77.739.
50863Taunton Deane Rebecca Pow85,46673.848.410.
50962Cornwall North Scott Mann68,85074.
51061Dorset West Oliver Letwin79,04375.451.
52447Tewkesbury Laurence Robertson81,44272.555.615.
52843Somerton and Frome David Warburton84,43575.352.511.423.
53437Yeovil Marcus Fysh82,91171.650.
54031Thornbury and Yate Luke Hall67,92774.650.87.933.
54625Devizes Claire Perry72,18470.158.314.
54823Wiltshire North James Gray71,40875.255.911.519.
54922Cotswolds, The Geoffrey Clifton-Brown80,44674.256.211.818.
55615Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson65,05474.254.88.829.
5638Dorset North Simon Hoare76,38573.060.512.315.
5692Christchurch Christopher Chope70,32972.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.