South West: Majority Sorted Seats

South West Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 52.8%48 29.7%027-2721
LAB 23.4%6 31.9%190+1925
LIB 18.2%1 19.3%80+89
Reform 0.4%0 11.0%00+00
Green 3.8%0 7.3%00+00
Other 1.6%0 0.9%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bristol East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Tiverton and Honiton, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Kingswood (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bristol North West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2019
Win
Pred
Win
120460Bristol East Kerry McCarthy73,86770.615.458.15.410.39.40.01.3LABLAB
134446Bristol West Thangam Debbonaire99,25376.15.746.85.26.834.10.01.4LABLAB
139441Exeter Ben Bradshaw82,05468.516.656.94.29.111.90.01.3LABLAB
140440Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Luke Pollard77,85268.319.159.44.29.36.90.01.2LABLAB
160420Bristol South Karin Smyth84,07965.615.053.07.411.311.80.01.4LABLAB
214366Bristol North West Darren Jones76,27373.322.052.87.09.18.20.00.9LABLAB
294286Stroud Siobhan Baillie84,53778.024.245.65.911.811.00.01.5CONLAB
301279Swindon South Robert Buckland73,11869.429.850.15.89.34.30.00.8CONLAB
308272Filton and Bradley Stoke Jack Lopresti74,01672.627.547.18.59.76.40.00.9CONLAB
320260Gloucester Richard Graham80,90166.528.345.88.710.55.50.01.2CONLAB
325255Truro and Falmouth Cherilyn Mackrory76,71977.226.042.413.110.57.10.00.9CONLAB
335245Kingswood Chris Skidmore68,97271.529.544.17.311.16.90.01.1CONLAB
336244Camborne and Redruth George Eustice70,25071.728.442.911.311.15.40.00.8CONLAB
337243Plymouth Moor View Johnny Mercer69,43063.731.545.75.111.05.70.01.1CONLAB
344236Bournemouth East Tobias Ellwood74,12566.528.140.99.011.49.10.01.5CONLAB
349231Bournemouth West Conor Burns74,20562.027.840.111.511.08.30.01.4CONLAB
355225Swindon North Justin Tomlinson82,44166.933.544.55.69.85.80.00.9CONLAB
375205Somerset North East Jacob Rees-Mogg73,69276.427.134.819.610.96.80.00.8CONLAB
391189Weston-Super-Mare John Penrose82,52667.432.437.012.111.16.60.00.9CONLAB
392188Forest of Dean Mark Harper71,43872.129.834.56.514.613.20.01.3CONLAB
403177Dorset South Richard Drax73,80969.231.234.912.112.97.60.01.3CONLAB
405174Bath Wera Hobhouse67,80576.917.020.247.78.55.90.00.7LIBLIB
415165St Austell and Newquay Steve Double79,93069.832.334.714.412.25.40.01.0CONLAB
422158Poole Robert Syms73,98968.231.833.113.912.57.00.01.6CONLAB
424156Devon Central Mel Stride74,92677.529.530.720.111.67.60.00.4CONLAB
428152Somerset North Liam Fox80,19477.430.631.615.911.59.20.01.2CONLAB
461119Newton Abbot Anne Marie Morris72,52972.529.927.522.912.46.10.01.2CONCON
462118Devon South West Gary Streeter72,53573.635.032.612.811.66.90.01.1CONCON
466114Wiltshire South West Andrew Murrison77,96970.434.731.815.211.26.20.00.9CONCON
471109Bridgwater and West Somerset Ian Liddell-Grainger85,32767.634.831.116.012.05.50.00.6CONCON
48694Cornwall South East Sheryll Murray71,82574.734.729.818.111.75.20.00.5CONCON
48793Salisbury John Glen74,55672.135.430.517.110.26.10.00.7CONCON
49584St Ives Derek Thomas68,79574.725.820.034.613.15.50.01.0CONLIB
49981Totnes Anthony Mangnall69,86374.731.926.125.411.15.00.00.6CONCON
50278Tewkesbury Laurence Robertson83,95872.832.626.420.711.67.60.01.0CONCON
50476Devon West and Torridge Geoffrey Cox80,40374.333.426.918.413.46.80.01.0CONCON
51664Devizes Danny Kruger73,37269.436.928.916.610.86.20.00.5CONCON
53347Chippenham Michelle Donelan77,22173.932.422.130.610.04.30.00.6CONCON
53346Taunton Deane Rebecca Pow88,67671.930.319.933.511.24.40.00.8CONLIB
53842Torbay Kevin Foster75,05467.234.023.524.811.75.00.01.0CONCON
54238Cotswolds, The Geoffrey Clifton-Brown81,93974.733.222.625.411.27.20.00.5CONCON
54732Devon North Selaine Saxby75,85973.329.818.832.312.65.80.00.6CONLIB
54832Wiltshire North James Gray73,28074.733.622.527.210.55.70.00.5CONCON
54930Cheltenham Alex Chalk81,04473.227.416.241.39.54.80.00.7CONLIB
55822Dorset West Chris Loder81,89774.432.319.430.711.16.00.00.5CONCON
55821Thornbury and Yate Luke Hall69,49275.231.318.135.410.44.20.00.5CONLIB
56217Yeovil Marcus Fysh82,46871.931.717.634.111.44.70.00.6CONLIB
56317Cornwall North Scott Mann69,93573.933.219.031.012.43.90.00.5CONCON
56316Wells James Heappey84,12473.331.617.335.110.94.50.00.6CONLIB
5719Christchurch Christopher Chope71,52072.641.125.014.112.26.40.01.2CONCON
5737Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson65,42774.835.018.429.710.95.30.00.6CONCON
5746Dorset North Simon Hoare76,76573.140.723.419.810.55.20.00.5CONCON
5755Devon East Simon Jupp87,16873.541.523.518.211.84.50.00.6CONCON
5763Somerton and Frome David Warburton85,86675.629.811.039.510.38.10.01.3CONLIB
5782Tiverton and Honiton Neil Parish82,95371.936.115.733.69.44.40.00.8CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.