South West: Majority Sorted Seats

South West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 51.4%47 38.3%36-344
LAB 29.2%7 17.1%03-34
LIB 14.9%1 25.6%60+67
Brexit 0.0%0 12.4%00+00
Green 2.3%0 4.1%00+00
UKIP 1.1%0 0.8%00+00
Other 1.2%0 1.7%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bristol West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Devon East, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Swindon North (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Plymouth Sutton and Devonport (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Brexit
%
Green
%
UKIP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
87460Bristol West Thangam Debbonaire92,98677.013.931.523.92.925.51.00.01.3LABLAB
155392Exeter Ben Bradshaw77,32971.727.635.718.39.95.60.90.01.9LABLAB
160387Bristol South Karin Smyth83,00965.526.333.917.612.56.91.10.01.7LABLAB
168379Bristol East Kerry McCarthy72,41470.228.935.916.011.25.50.90.01.6LABLAB
216331Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Luke Pollard76,58466.931.231.017.012.65.21.00.02.0LABCON
242305Bristol North West Darren Jones75,43171.732.629.421.19.84.70.80.01.6LABCON
292255Stroud David Drew82,84977.036.727.117.911.34.40.90.01.7LABCON
300247Swindon South Robert Buckland72,39170.837.226.317.112.93.80.90.01.7CONCON
305242Camborne and Redruth George Eustice67,46271.836.524.319.313.54.00.80.01.7CONCON
313234Filton and Bradley Stoke Jack Lopresti72,56969.937.624.020.011.54.40.80.01.7CONCON
314233Gloucester Richard Graham82,96365.238.224.516.314.83.41.00.01.8CONCON
316231Truro and Falmouth Sarah Newton74,69175.834.320.127.811.34.10.90.01.6CONCON
321225Bath Wera Hobhouse66,76974.324.29.054.46.44.40.50.01.1LIBLIB
324223Plymouth Moor View Johnny Mercer69,34265.539.524.012.917.73.11.10.01.7CONCON
332215Swindon North Justin Tomlinson80,19468.540.123.015.814.93.51.00.01.7CONCON
334213Bournemouth West Conor Burns73,19560.838.521.319.113.44.80.90.02.0CONCON
335212Bournemouth East Tobias Ellwood74,59165.238.421.219.813.24.51.00.01.9CONCON
344203Kingswood Chris Skidmore69,42670.241.223.116.013.63.60.80.01.7CONCON
376171Weston-Super-Mare John Penrose82,16068.739.718.621.114.83.21.00.01.7CONCON
378169Somerset North East Jacob Rees-Mogg71,35075.740.719.620.911.83.90.90.02.1CONCON
380167Forest of Dean Mark Harper70,89873.041.820.416.414.53.81.00.02.1CONCON
385162St Austell and Newquay Steve Double78,61869.037.415.628.114.32.20.80.01.6CONCON
396150St Ives Derek Thomas67,46275.931.99.044.011.22.20.50.01.3CONLIB
399148Dorset South Richard Drax72,32371.842.419.117.214.04.70.90.01.7CONCON
402144Cheltenham Alex Chalk78,87572.331.37.647.79.02.70.40.01.2CONLIB
417130Bridgwater and West Somerset Ian Liddell-Grainger89,29465.341.416.420.116.33.21.00.01.6CONCON
424122Devon North Peter Heaton-Jones75,78473.534.08.739.913.12.60.60.01.3CONLIB
426121Poole Robert Syms73,81167.542.417.020.513.53.60.90.02.1CONCON
428119Totnes Sarah Wollaston68,91372.940.314.824.113.25.20.90.01.6CONCON
439108Devon Central Mel Stride74,37077.841.115.124.412.44.20.90.01.9CONCON
447100Torbay Kevin Foster75,93667.438.111.431.014.92.40.70.01.5CONCON
44899Chippenham Michelle Donelan76,43274.838.111.435.311.22.00.60.01.4CONCON
45097Somerset North Liam Fox80,53877.042.315.525.110.64.10.80.01.6CONCON
45690Wells James Heappey82,44973.835.68.341.111.31.80.50.01.5CONLIB
45790Newton Abbot Anne Marie Morris71,72272.040.112.729.212.92.90.70.01.5CONCON
46186Cornwall South East Sheryll Murray71,89674.040.512.927.913.13.40.70.01.5CONCON
46285Taunton Deane Rebecca Pow85,46673.837.710.035.012.62.70.60.01.4CONCON
46483Devon South West Gary Streeter71,26274.244.616.918.414.03.40.90.01.6CONCON
46879Salisbury John Glen72,89273.142.614.824.012.43.50.90.01.9CONCON
47076Cornwall North Scott Mann68,85074.036.58.438.412.91.70.50.01.5CONLIB
47275Wiltshire South West Andrew Murrison76,89871.243.715.320.813.63.60.90.02.1CONCON
47572Devon West and Torridge Geoffrey Cox80,52773.941.312.726.213.43.60.80.02.0CONCON
48463Dorset West Oliver Letwin79,04375.440.110.932.411.33.20.60.01.4CONCON
48562Tiverton and Honiton Neil Parish80,73171.644.615.420.313.34.10.80.01.6CONCON
48561Thornbury and Yate Luke Hall67,92774.637.48.139.910.82.10.40.01.2CONLIB
48661Yeovil Marcus Fysh82,91171.638.18.735.113.22.40.60.01.9CONCON
48859Somerton and Frome David Warburton84,43575.340.310.731.011.63.80.70.02.0CONCON
49651Tewkesbury Laurence Robertson81,44272.543.313.025.113.03.30.80.01.5CONCON
51136Devizes Claire Perry72,18470.145.013.221.113.94.10.90.01.7CONCON
51433Wiltshire North James Gray71,40875.242.911.028.711.93.00.70.01.7CONCON
51532Cotswolds, The Geoffrey Clifton-Brown80,44674.243.411.328.111.53.40.70.01.5CONCON
52027Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson65,05474.241.38.834.212.41.60.50.01.3CONCON
53314Dorset North Simon Hoare76,38573.046.111.624.012.93.40.60.01.4CONCON
5434Christchurch Christopher Chope70,32972.050.112.218.913.82.90.60.01.5CONCON
5443Devon East Hugo Swire82,38273.352.011.718.413.61.70.70.01.8CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.