South West: Sorted Seats

South West Prediction

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	28.2%	11	24.4%	5	5	+0	11
LAB	24.5%	24	19.5%	0	12	-12	12
LIB	24.7%	22	20.8%	0	4	-4	18
Reform	13.8%	0	24.6%	16	0	+16	16
Green	7.4%	1	9.7%	0	0	+0	1
Other	1.4%	0	1.1%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Bristol North West' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Dorset Mid and North Poole', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Dorset Mid and North Poole (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bristol North West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2024	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	MIN %	OTH %	2024 Win	Pred Win
45	227	Bristol North West	Darren Jones	74,869	64.7	13.6	38.0	12.6	16.4	18.2	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
61	211	Bristol East	Kerry McCarthy	75,917	60.7	11.9	34.6	10.5	10.5	30.1	0.0	2.4	LAB	LAB
68	203	Bristol Central	Carla Denyer	62,735	69.1	5.2	26.8	7.7	6.1	53.3	0.0	0.9	Green	Green
73	199	Plymouth Sutton and Devonport	Luke Pollard	75,313	55.9	15.5	35.9	10.5	24.7	10.7	1.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
77	195	Bristol South	Karin Smyth	75,533	57.5	12.0	31.9	10.1	21.5	23.3	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
82	190	Bristol North East	Damien Egan	70,076	59.9	14.6	34.2	9.8	20.8	18.3	0.0	2.3	LAB	LAB
87	185	Exeter	Steve Race	67,840	59.2	15.2	34.5	13.6	19.0	16.0	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
114	158	Stroud	Simon Joseph Opher	77,912	70.9	21.3	34.1	9.9	21.4	12.3	0.0	1.0	LAB	LAB
125	147	Filton and Bradley Stoke	Claire Hazelgrove	77,584	64.9	22.2	32.7	10.5	22.5	11.3	0.0	0.8	LAB	LAB
127	145	Truro and Falmouth	Jayne Kirkham	73,082	68.8	20.3	30.7	14.8	23.3	9.7	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
132	140	Swindon South	Heidi Alexander	72,596	61.7	23.4	32.9	8.7	24.7	9.2	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
136	135	Camborne and Redruth	Perran Moon	74,402	64.2	19.5	28.7	11.6	30.7	8.2	0.0	1.4	LAB	Reform
157	115	Bournemouth East	Tom Hayes	72,354	62.1	23.5	29.2	11.0	24.3	10.0	0.0	2.1	LAB	LAB
165	106	Bath	Wera Hobhouse	69,655	69.1	15.5	19.5	34.0	13.7	14.6	0.5	2.3	LIB	LIB
170	102	Somerset North East and Hanham	Dan Norris	73,887	69.2	26.5	28.7	10.6	24.7	8.8	0.0	0.7	LAB	LAB
177	94	Weston-super-Mare	Dan Aldridge	71,396	59.4	25.7	25.8	10.7	28.1	9.1	0.0	0.6	LAB	Reform
179	92	Cornwall South East	Anna Gelderd	72,728	67.8	23.6	23.1	15.8	30.5	6.4	0.0	0.5	LAB	Reform
179	92	Plymouth Moor View	Fred Thomas	74,724	57.4	24.9	24.3	8.7	33.5	7.9	0.0	0.7	LAB	Reform
181	91	Swindon North	Will Stone	73,238	60.3	27.9	27.1	8.3	27.6	8.3	0.0	0.8	LAB	CON
181	90	Bournemouth West	Jessica Toale	70,259	56.1	25.5	24.5	12.2	26.7	10.3	0.0	0.8	LAB	Reform
181	90	St Austell and Newquay	Noah Law	76,140	61.4	24.5	23.4	11.6	32.0	7.4	0.0	1.0	LAB	Reform
182	89	Devon Central	Mel Stride	75,385	70.9	25.2	23.7	15.6	26.8	8.1	0.0	0.6	CON	Reform
182	89	Exmouth and Exeter East	David George Reed	79,983	64.2	23.8	22.3	19.6	25.3	7.4	0.0	1.5	CON	Reform
184	87	Gloucester	Alex McIntyre	79,475	57.5	26.4	24.4	11.5	26.8	8.4	1.7	0.7	LAB	Reform
186	85	Forest of Dean	Matt Bishop	72,052	66.7	27.0	23.9	8.8	29.6	10.3	0.0	0.5	LAB	Reform
186	85	Dorset South	Lloyd Hatton	75,924	64.6	25.9	22.4	15.5	28.6	7.0	0.0	0.7	LAB	Reform
188	84	Somerset North	Sadik Al-Hassan	74,426	72.2	30.0	26.5	14.0	19.7	8.8	1.0	0.0	LAB	CON
193	78	Frome and East Somerset	Anna Sabine	70,378	66.4	20.2	14.0	27.8	25.2	11.6	0.0	1.4	LIB	LIB
194	78	Poole	Neil John Duncan-Jordan	72,509	61.4	28.8	22.4	13.2	26.2	8.1	0.0	1.2	LAB	CON
203	69	Salisbury	John Glen	71,553	70.1	28.6	20.7	20.6	22.1	7.2	0.0	0.7	CON	CON
204	67	Bridgwater	Ashley Fox	71,571	56.1	26.6	18.3	14.1	33.2	6.6	0.6	0.6	CON	Reform
205	67	Devon South West	Rebecca Smith	77,600	67.3	29.4	20.8	13.0	27.2	8.6	0.0	1.0	CON	CON
211	61	Wiltshire South West	Andrew Murrison	72,809	63.4	29.2	19.7	14.7	28.0	7.4	0.0	1.0	CON	CON
211	60	Wiltshire East	Danny Kruger	73,878	63.9	27.9	18.0	17.3	28.8	7.3	0.0	0.7	CON	Reform
212	59	St Ives	Andrew George	69,980	68.7	19.4	9.6	37.4	26.3	6.2	0.0	1.1	LIB	LIB
216	55	Torridge and Tavistock	Geoffrey Cox	74,727	68.0	26.0	15.4	20.7	29.8	7.2	0.0	0.8	CON	Reform
220	51	Taunton and Wellington	Gideon Amos	78,116	64.4	21.8	10.1	33.9	26.7	6.6	0.0	0.8	LIB	LIB
220	51	Newton Abbot	Martin Wrigley	73,885	65.0	25.6	13.6	24.5	27.5	7.0	0.0	1.7	LIB	Reform
223	48	Wells and Mendip Hills	Tessa Munt	72,051	69.9	23.0	10.3	34.1	24.5	6.7	0.0	1.4	LIB	LIB
226	46	Cotswolds North	Geoffrey Clifton-Brown	72,513	69.3	28.7	15.2	23.1	24.0	8.3	0.0	0.6	CON	CON
227	44	Yeovil	Adam Dance	79,700	61.4	22.5	8.8	32.9	27.9	7.1	0.0	0.8	LIB	LIB
232	39	Cornwall North	Ben Maguire	76,832	67.8	23.3	8.4	33.3	29.4	5.1	0.0	0.5	LIB	LIB
235	36	Glastonbury and Somerton	Sarah Joanne Dyke	72,982	65.3	24.4	9.0	30.6	28.4	7.2	0.0	0.4	LIB	LIB
240	31	Tiverton and Minehead	Rachel Gilmour	71,843	66.1	25.5	9.0	29.7	28.5	6.9	0.0	0.5	LIB	LIB
244	27	Chippenham	Sarah Gibson	73,876	67.0	27.0	10.1	32.6	22.5	7.0	0.0	0.8	LIB	LIB
245	26	Devon North	Ian Roome	79,079	65.0	25.7	8.7	30.0	28.0	6.7	0.0	0.8	LIB	LIB
245	26	Tewkesbury	Cameron Thomas	73,458	66.1	27.7	10.5	30.3	22.6	8.3	0.0	0.6	LIB	LIB
249	22	Devon South	Caroline Voaden	70,755	69.3	27.0	8.9	33.5	24.6	5.6	0.0	0.5	LIB	LIB
250	21	Cotswolds South	Roz Savage	71,971	72.7	28.5	10.0	33.2	21.9	5.7	0.0	0.7	LIB	LIB
251	21	Thornbury and Yate	Claire Young	78,195	68.2	29.5	10.9	28.3	24.2	6.6	0.0	0.4	LIB	CON
252	19	Honiton and Sidmouth	Richard Foord	75,537	67.1	27.5	8.7	32.4	25.5	5.1	0.0	0.7	LIB	LIB
254	18	Christchurch	Christopher Chope	71,064	66.6	31.5	12.6	18.7	28.4	6.7	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
255	16	Melksham and Devizes	Brian Mathew	71,999	71.1	29.3	10.3	29.3	24.1	6.6	0.0	0.4	LIB	LIB
255	16	Torbay	Steve Darling	76,179	60.5	27.7	8.7	27.7	28.6	6.0	1.4	0.0	LIB	Reform
256	15	Cheltenham	Max Wilkinson	76,143	65.1	29.3	9.8	36.9	13.2	9.6	0.0	1.2	LIB	LIB
260	12	Dorset North	Simon Hoare	72,690	68.3	29.5	8.9	26.4	27.9	6.5	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
264	7	Dorset West	Edward Morello	75,998	69.2	30.7	9.1	37.1	15.4	6.8	0.0	0.9	LIB	LIB
266	6	Dorset Mid and North Poole	Vikki Slade	75,294	65.8	33.5	9.8	32.3	15.8	7.5	0.0	1.1	LIB	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.