South West: Majority Sorted Seats

South West Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 52.8%48 29.7%027-2721
LAB 23.4%6 31.9%190+1925
LIB 18.2%1 19.3%80+89
Reform 0.4%0 11.0%00+00
Green 3.8%0 7.3%00+00
Other 1.6%0 0.9%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bristol East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Tiverton and Honiton, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Kingswood (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bristol North West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
120460Bristol East Kerry McCarthy73,86770.615.458.15.410.
134446Bristol West Thangam Debbonaire99,25376.15.746.85.26.834.10.01.4LABLAB
139441Exeter Ben Bradshaw82,05468.516.656.
140440Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Luke Pollard77,85268.319.
160420Bristol South Karin Smyth84,07965.615.053.07.411.311.80.01.4LABLAB
214366Bristol North West Darren Jones76,27373.322.
294286Stroud Siobhan Baillie84,53778.
301279Swindon South Robert Buckland73,11869.429.850.
308272Filton and Bradley Stoke Jack Lopresti74,01672.627.547.
320260Gloucester Richard Graham80,90166.528.345.88.710.
325255Truro and Falmouth Cherilyn Mackrory76,71977.226.042.413.
335245Kingswood Chris Skidmore68,97271.529.544.17.311.
336244Camborne and Redruth George Eustice70,25071.728.442.911.311.
337243Plymouth Moor View Johnny Mercer69,43063.731.545.
344236Bournemouth East Tobias Ellwood74,12566.528.
349231Bournemouth West Conor Burns74,20562.027.840.111.511.
355225Swindon North Justin Tomlinson82,44166.933.544.
375205Somerset North East Jacob Rees-Mogg73,69276.427.134.819.610.
391189Weston-Super-Mare John Penrose82,52667.432.437.
392188Forest of Dean Mark Harper71,43872.129.834.56.514.613.20.01.3CONLAB
403177Dorset South Richard Drax73,80969.231.234.912.
405174Bath Wera Hobhouse67,80576.917.
415165St Austell and Newquay Steve Double79,93069.832.334.714.412.
422158Poole Robert Syms73,98968.231.833.113.912.
424156Devon Central Mel Stride74,92677.529.530.720.
428152Somerset North Liam Fox80,19477.430.631.615.911.
461119Newton Abbot Anne Marie Morris72,52972.529.927.522.912.
462118Devon South West Gary Streeter72,53573.635.032.612.811.
466114Wiltshire South West Andrew Murrison77,96970.434.731.815.
471109Bridgwater and West Somerset Ian Liddell-Grainger85,32767.634.831.
48694Cornwall South East Sheryll Murray71,82574.734.729.818.
48793Salisbury John Glen74,55672.135.430.517.
49584St Ives Derek Thomas68,79574.725.820.034.613.
49981Totnes Anthony Mangnall69,86374.731.926.125.411.
50278Tewkesbury Laurence Robertson83,95872.832.626.420.711.
50476Devon West and Torridge Geoffrey Cox80,40374.333.426.918.413.
51664Devizes Danny Kruger73,37269.436.928.916.610.
53347Chippenham Michelle Donelan77,22173.932.422.130.610.
53346Taunton Deane Rebecca Pow88,67671.930.319.933.511.
53842Torbay Kevin Foster75,05467.234.023.524.811.
54238Cotswolds, The Geoffrey Clifton-Brown81,93974.733.222.625.411.
54732Devon North Selaine Saxby75,85973.329.818.832.312.
54832Wiltshire North James Gray73,28074.733.622.527.
54930Cheltenham Alex Chalk81,04473.227.416.
55822Dorset West Chris Loder81,89774.432.319.430.711.
55821Thornbury and Yate Luke Hall69,49275.231.318.135.410.
56217Yeovil Marcus Fysh82,46871.931.717.634.
56317Cornwall North Scott Mann69,93573.933.
56316Wells James Heappey84,12473.331.617.335.
5719Christchurch Christopher Chope71,52072.641.
5737Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson65,42774.835.018.429.710.
5746Dorset North Simon Hoare76,76573.140.723.419.810.
5755Devon East Simon Jupp87,16873.541.523.518.
5763Somerton and Frome David Warburton85,86675.629.811.039.510.
5782Tiverton and Honiton Neil Parish82,95371.936.115.733.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.