South West: Majority Sorted Seats

South West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 51.4%47 26.0%020-2027
LAB 29.2%7 15.7%00+07
LIB 14.9%1 25.4%170+1718
Brexit 0.0%0 22.7%30+33
Green 2.3%0 6.9%00+00
UKIP 1.1%0 1.1%00+00
Other 1.2%0 2.1%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bristol West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Devon East, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to St Ives (prediction: LIB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bristol West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
99354Bristol West Thangam Debbonaire92,98677.08.331.328.
139314Bristol East Kerry McCarthy72,41470.
143310Bristol South Karin Smyth83,00965.516.032.918.
152301Exeter Ben Bradshaw77,32971.718.134.418.816.
209244Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Luke Pollard76,58466.921.829.617.
221232Bristol North West Darren Jones75,43171.722.828.221.516.
254199Stroud David Drew82,84977.024.825.617.
260192Camborne and Redruth George Eustice67,46271.823.422.818.524.
261192Swindon South Robert Buckland72,39170.826.125.416.821.
267185Plymouth Moor View Johnny Mercer69,34265.525.522.512.
268185Gloucester Richard Graham82,96365.226.323.316.323.
272181Filton and Bradley Stoke Jack Lopresti72,56969.926.322.319.920.
273179Truro and Falmouth Sarah Newton74,69175.822.818.427.620.
279174Swindon North Justin Tomlinson80,19468.527.521.515.
285168Kingswood Chris Skidmore69,42670.228.121.515.
289164Bournemouth West Conor Burns73,19560.826.819.619.
292161Bournemouth East Tobias Ellwood74,59165.227.219.619.621.
297155St Austell and Newquay Steve Double78,61869.022.814.
299154Forest of Dean Mark Harper70,89873.027.918.915.326.
304149Weston-Super-Mare John Penrose82,16068.726.417.020.425.
308144Bath Wera Hobhouse66,76974.317.17.655.311.
313140Somerset North East Jacob Rees-Mogg71,35075.728.017.920.
321132Dorset South Richard Drax72,32371.828.517.716.
323129Bridgwater and West Somerset Ian Liddell-Grainger89,29465.326.014.719.629.
329123St Ives Derek Thomas67,46275.920.18.144.520.
345108Totnes Sarah Wollaston68,91372.926.813.523.
347106Poole Robert Syms73,81167.528.815.320.
347105Devon North Peter Heaton-Jones75,78473.521.37.740.422.
352100Torbay Kevin Foster75,93667.424.510.331.
35796Devon Central Mel Stride74,37077.828.213.723.
36290Newton Abbot Anne Marie Morris71,72272.026.311.428.824.
36686Cornwall South East Sheryll Murray71,89674.027.011.627.
36983Cornwall North Scott Mann68,85074.023.27.438.823.
37082Chippenham Michelle Donelan76,43274.826.
37181Cheltenham Alex Chalk78,87572.322.36.448.615.
37281Devon South West Gary Streeter71,26274.
37380Wiltshire South West Andrew Murrison76,89871.229.813.919.926.
37479Devon West and Torridge Geoffrey Cox80,52773.927.411.425.426.
37874Wells James Heappey82,44973.823.47.341.520.
37974Somerset North Liam Fox80,53877.030.013.924.
38370Tiverton and Honiton Neil Parish80,73171.630.213.918.926.
38667Salisbury John Glen72,89273.129.813.223.423.
38963Taunton Deane Rebecca Pow85,46673.825.68.834.822.
39557Yeovil Marcus Fysh82,91171.624.97.635.524.
39656Dorset West Oliver Letwin79,04375.427.39.831.822.
40646Somerton and Frome David Warburton84,43575.328.19.430.
40746Tewkesbury Laurence Robertson81,44272.530.311.624.324.
41141Thornbury and Yate Luke Hall67,92774.625.97.039.720.
42230Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson65,05474.227.97.734.
42429Devizes Claire Perry72,18470.132.311.720.
42825Cotswolds, The Geoffrey Clifton-Brown80,44674.230.910.
42924Wiltshire North James Gray71,40875.230.79.727.922.
43419Dorset North Simon Hoare76,38573.032.110.322.925.
44310Christchurch Christopher Chope70,32972.034.311.117.728.
4485Devon East Hugo Swire82,38273.339.210.116.625.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.