| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 28.2% | 11 | 19.6% | 0 | 11 | -11 | 0 |
| LAB | 24.5% | 24 | 17.1% | 0 | 17 | -17 | 7 |
| LIB | 24.7% | 22 | 21.1% | 0 | 3 | -3 | 19 |
| Reform | 13.8% | 0 | 30.0% | 30 | 0 | +30 | 30 |
| Green | 7.4% | 1 | 9.1% | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 |
| Other | 1.4% | 0 | 3.1% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Bristol Central' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Cornwall North', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Cornwall South East (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Bristol North East (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 387 | Bristol Central | Carla Denyer | 62,735 | 69.1 | 4.9 | 18.3 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 56.1 | 8.6 | 0.0 | Green | Green |
| 76 | 379 | Bristol North West | Darren Jones | 74,869 | 64.7 | 13.0 | 30.6 | 11.1 | 19.9 | 19.6 | 5.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 81 | 374 | Stroud | Simon Joseph Opher | 77,912 | 70.9 | 6.4 | 46.5 | 2.9 | 37.0 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 84 | 371 | Exeter | Steve Race | 67,840 | 59.2 | 8.7 | 38.3 | 6.5 | 29.5 | 11.1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 85 | 370 | Truro and Falmouth | Jayne Kirkham | 73,082 | 68.8 | 7.9 | 44.0 | 5.7 | 35.2 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 86 | 368 | Bristol East | Kerry McCarthy | 75,917 | 60.7 | 11.6 | 23.9 | 9.0 | 15.6 | 32.7 | 7.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Green |
| 98 | 357 | Filton and Bradley Stoke | Claire Hazelgrove | 77,584 | 64.9 | 8.7 | 42.6 | 4.7 | 36.1 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 108 | 347 | Plymouth Sutton and Devonport | Luke Pollard | 75,313 | 55.9 | 4.7 | 44.8 | 2.3 | 39.1 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 122 | 333 | Bristol North East | Damien Egan | 70,076 | 59.9 | 10.0 | 32.3 | 6.8 | 28.4 | 16.4 | 6.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 136 | 318 | Bath | Wera Hobhouse | 69,655 | 69.1 | 13.4 | 19.0 | 28.8 | 17.4 | 16.7 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 144 | 311 | Swindon South | Heidi Alexander | 72,596 | 61.7 | 7.1 | 41.7 | 2.6 | 41.7 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 163 | 292 | Somerset North | Sadik Al-Hassan | 74,426 | 72.2 | 24.4 | 22.4 | 15.7 | 25.6 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 166 | 289 | Bristol South | Karin Smyth | 75,533 | 57.5 | 9.8 | 23.5 | 8.5 | 27.1 | 24.6 | 6.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 190 | 265 | Somerset North East and Hanham | Dan Norris | 73,887 | 69.2 | 23.3 | 23.4 | 11.8 | 30.1 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 202 | 253 | Bournemouth East | Tom Hayes | 72,354 | 62.1 | 20.5 | 23.7 | 11.5 | 31.0 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 203 | 251 | Cheltenham | Max Wilkinson | 76,143 | 65.1 | 21.7 | 10.9 | 39.2 | 18.3 | 8.2 | 1.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 218 | 237 | Devon Central | Mel Stride | 75,385 | 70.9 | 22.7 | 20.5 | 17.1 | 29.2 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 220 | 234 | Dorset West | Edward Morello | 75,998 | 69.2 | 24.1 | 10.1 | 39.0 | 19.4 | 6.0 | 1.4 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 222 | 233 | Salisbury | John Glen | 71,553 | 70.1 | 24.6 | 17.4 | 22.0 | 26.8 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 237 | 218 | Camborne and Redruth | Perran Moon | 74,402 | 64.2 | 9.7 | 33.3 | 7.2 | 43.6 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 243 | 211 | Dorset Mid and North Poole | Vikki Slade | 75,294 | 65.8 | 25.2 | 12.1 | 33.0 | 22.8 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 261 | 194 | Gloucester | Alex McIntyre | 79,475 | 57.5 | 21.5 | 21.0 | 12.7 | 33.5 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 262 | 193 | Poole | Neil John Duncan-Jordan | 72,509 | 61.4 | 21.9 | 20.5 | 14.2 | 33.1 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 267 | 188 | Swindon North | Will Stone | 73,238 | 60.3 | 19.6 | 23.7 | 9.9 | 36.6 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 269 | 186 | Exmouth and Exeter East | David George Reed | 79,983 | 64.2 | 21.0 | 18.3 | 18.6 | 31.5 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 273 | 182 | Bournemouth West | Jessica Toale | 70,259 | 56.1 | 20.2 | 20.2 | 12.3 | 33.9 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 275 | 180 | Devon South West | Rebecca Smith | 77,600 | 67.3 | 23.9 | 19.5 | 13.5 | 33.4 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 286 | 168 | Cotswolds South | Roz Savage | 71,971 | 72.7 | 24.0 | 10.0 | 33.7 | 24.9 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 290 | 165 | Weston-super-Mare | Dan Aldridge | 71,396 | 59.4 | 19.6 | 21.3 | 11.7 | 36.6 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 291 | 164 | Dorset South | Lloyd Hatton | 75,924 | 64.6 | 22.2 | 18.8 | 15.4 | 34.1 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 297 | 158 | Cotswolds North | Geoffrey Clifton-Brown | 72,513 | 69.3 | 24.1 | 13.1 | 23.6 | 28.7 | 7.8 | 2.7 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 320 | 135 | Forest of Dean | Matt Bishop | 72,052 | 66.7 | 22.0 | 18.7 | 9.8 | 36.2 | 9.9 | 3.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 327 | 128 | Cornwall South East | Anna Gelderd | 72,728 | 67.8 | 19.6 | 18.9 | 16.6 | 37.0 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 332 | 123 | Torridge and Tavistock | Geoffrey Cox | 74,727 | 68.0 | 21.7 | 15.2 | 20.0 | 33.7 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 347 | 108 | Newton Abbot | Martin Wrigley | 73,885 | 65.0 | 20.4 | 13.1 | 24.0 | 32.8 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.0 | LIB | Reform |
| 362 | 93 | Wiltshire East | Danny Kruger | 73,878 | 63.9 | 29.9 | 13.8 | 15.2 | 34.4 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 363 | 92 | Wiltshire South West | Andrew Murrison | 72,809 | 63.4 | 25.0 | 15.6 | 14.8 | 36.3 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 366 | 89 | Plymouth Moor View | Fred Thomas | 74,724 | 57.4 | 17.2 | 22.2 | 8.6 | 43.0 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 381 | 73 | Melksham and Devizes | Brian Mathew | 71,999 | 71.1 | 20.1 | 8.4 | 33.4 | 30.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 391 | 64 | Dorset North | Simon Hoare | 72,690 | 68.3 | 25.6 | 8.7 | 27.1 | 31.9 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 392 | 62 | Tewkesbury | Cameron Thomas | 73,458 | 66.1 | 17.5 | 7.8 | 34.3 | 31.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 404 | 50 | Honiton and Sidmouth | Richard Foord | 75,537 | 67.1 | 18.4 | 6.9 | 35.7 | 31.9 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 409 | 46 | St Austell and Newquay | Noah Law | 76,140 | 61.4 | 18.7 | 17.0 | 12.9 | 42.9 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 412 | 43 | Christchurch | Christopher Chope | 71,064 | 66.6 | 35.8 | 9.6 | 12.7 | 35.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 424 | 31 | Bridgwater | Ashley Fox | 71,571 | 56.1 | 19.4 | 14.5 | 15.8 | 42.2 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 429 | 25 | Chippenham | Sarah Gibson | 73,876 | 67.0 | 11.8 | 5.1 | 42.7 | 34.3 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 431 | 23 | Devon South | Caroline Voaden | 70,755 | 69.3 | 13.9 | 4.8 | 41.4 | 34.2 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 434 | 21 | Tiverton and Minehead | Rachel Gilmour | 71,843 | 66.1 | 15.9 | 6.8 | 34.2 | 36.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.0 | LIB | Reform |
| 438 | 16 | St Ives | Andrew George | 69,980 | 68.7 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 54.2 | 33.9 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 445 | 9 | Frome and East Somerset | Anna Sabine | 70,378 | 66.4 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 49.4 | 36.7 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 445 | 9 | Wells and Mendip Hills | Tessa Munt | 72,051 | 69.9 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 52.1 | 36.4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 446 | 9 | Torbay | Steve Darling | 76,179 | 60.5 | 14.3 | 5.7 | 33.7 | 40.2 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.0 | LIB | Reform |
| 446 | 8 | Thornbury and Yate | Claire Young | 78,195 | 68.2 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 44.7 | 38.3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 446 | 8 | Taunton and Wellington | Gideon Amos | 78,116 | 64.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 50.8 | 38.2 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 448 | 6 | Glastonbury and Somerton | Sarah Joanne Dyke | 72,982 | 65.3 | 7.4 | 2.3 | 45.7 | 40.0 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 448 | 6 | Yeovil | Adam Dance | 79,700 | 61.4 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 49.8 | 39.9 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 449 | 5 | Devon North | Ian Roome | 79,079 | 65.0 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 44.0 | 41.0 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 450 | 4 | Cornwall North | Ben Maguire | 76,832 | 67.8 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 47.2 | 41.2 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.