South West: Majority Sorted Seats

South West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 51.4%47 38.3%36-344
LAB 29.2%7 17.1%03-34
LIB 14.9%1 25.6%60+67
Brexit 0.0%0 12.4%00+00
Green 2.3%0 4.1%00+00
UKIP 1.1%0 0.8%00+00
Other 1.2%0 1.7%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bristol West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Devon East, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Swindon North (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Plymouth Sutton and Devonport (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
87460Bristol West Thangam Debbonaire92,98677.013.931.523.92.925.
155392Exeter Ben Bradshaw77,32971.727.635.718.
160387Bristol South Karin Smyth83,00965.526.333.917.612.
168379Bristol East Kerry McCarthy72,41470.228.935.916.
216331Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Luke Pollard76,58466.931.
242305Bristol North West Darren Jones75,43171.732.629.421.
292255Stroud David Drew82,84977.036.727.117.911.
300247Swindon South Robert Buckland72,39170.837.226.317.
305242Camborne and Redruth George Eustice67,46271.836.524.319.313.
313234Filton and Bradley Stoke Jack Lopresti72,56969.937.624.
314233Gloucester Richard Graham82,96365.238.224.516.314.
316231Truro and Falmouth Sarah Newton74,69175.834.320.127.811.
321225Bath Wera Hobhouse66,76974.324.
324223Plymouth Moor View Johnny Mercer69,34265.539.524.012.917.
332215Swindon North Justin Tomlinson80,19468.540.123.015.814.
334213Bournemouth West Conor Burns73,19560.838.521.319.
335212Bournemouth East Tobias Ellwood74,59165.238.421.219.813.
344203Kingswood Chris Skidmore69,42670.
376171Weston-Super-Mare John Penrose82,16068.739.718.621.
378169Somerset North East Jacob Rees-Mogg71,35075.740.719.620.911.
380167Forest of Dean Mark Harper70,89873.041.820.416.414.
385162St Austell and Newquay Steve Double78,61869.037.415.628.
396150St Ives Derek Thomas67,46275.931.
399148Dorset South Richard Drax72,32371.842.419.
402144Cheltenham Alex Chalk78,87572.331.37.647.
417130Bridgwater and West Somerset Ian Liddell-Grainger89,29465.341.416.420.
424122Devon North Peter Heaton-Jones75,78473.534.08.739.913.
426121Poole Robert Syms73,81167.542.417.020.513.
428119Totnes Sarah Wollaston68,91372.940.314.824.
439108Devon Central Mel Stride74,37077.841.115.124.412.
447100Torbay Kevin Foster75,93667.438.111.431.
44899Chippenham Michelle Donelan76,43274.838.111.435.311.
45097Somerset North Liam Fox80,53877.042.315.525.
45690Wells James Heappey82,44973.835.68.341.
45790Newton Abbot Anne Marie Morris71,72272.040.112.729.
46186Cornwall South East Sheryll Murray71,89674.040.512.927.913.
46285Taunton Deane Rebecca Pow85,46673.837.710.
46483Devon South West Gary Streeter71,26274.244.616.918.414.
46879Salisbury John Glen72,89273.142.614.824.
47076Cornwall North Scott Mann68,85074.036.58.438.412.
47275Wiltshire South West Andrew Murrison76,89871.243.715.320.813.
47572Devon West and Torridge Geoffrey Cox80,52773.941.312.726.
48463Dorset West Oliver Letwin79,04375.440.110.932.411.
48562Tiverton and Honiton Neil Parish80,73171.644.615.420.313.
48561Thornbury and Yate Luke Hall67,92774.637.48.139.910.
48661Yeovil Marcus Fysh82,91171.638.18.735.
48859Somerton and Frome David Warburton84,43575.340.310.731.
49651Tewkesbury Laurence Robertson81,44272.543.313.
51136Devizes Claire Perry72,18470.
51433Wiltshire North James Gray71,40875.242.911.028.711.
51532Cotswolds, The Geoffrey Clifton-Brown80,44674.243.411.328.
52027Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson65,05474.241.38.834.
53314Dorset North Simon Hoare76,38573.046.111.624.
5434Christchurch Christopher Chope70,32972.
5443Devon East Hugo Swire82,38273.352.011.718.413.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.