South West: Majority Sorted Seats

South West Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 52.8%48 39.2%08-840
LAB 23.4%6 31.7%60+612
LIB 18.2%1 15.8%10+12
Reform 0.4%0 2.0%00+00
Green 3.8%0 6.4%00+00
Other 1.6%0 4.9%10+11

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bristol West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Christchurch, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Kingswood (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bristol North West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
31532Bristol West Thangam Debbonaire99,25376.18.554.75.30.728.10.02.8LABLAB
117446Bristol East Kerry McCarthy73,86770.625.552.
122441Exeter Ben Bradshaw82,05468.526.
126437Bristol South Karin Smyth84,07965.624.951.
167396Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Luke Pollard77,85268.329.
177386Bristol North West Darren Jones76,27373.328.749.
263300Stroud Siobhan Baillie84,53778.036.944.
270293Truro and Falmouth Cherilyn Mackrory76,71977.234.841.611.
274289Filton and Bradley Stoke Jack Lopresti74,01672.636.
287276Swindon South Robert Buckland73,11869.438.442.
292270Bath Wera Hobhouse67,80576.921.
305258Bournemouth East Tobias Ellwood74,12566.537.
314249Gloucester Richard Graham80,90166.540.
316247Camborne and Redruth George Eustice70,25071.739.739.
319244Bournemouth West Conor Burns74,20562.038.437.810.
326237Kingswood Chris Skidmore68,97271.542.
338225Somerset North East Jacob Rees-Mogg73,69276.438.533.
345218Swindon North Justin Tomlinson82,44166.942.937.
355208Somerset North Liam Fox80,19477.439.832.715.
363200Plymouth Moor View Johnny Mercer69,43063.745.
374189Weston-Super-Mare John Penrose82,52667.442.733.911.
376187St Austell and Newquay Steve Double79,93069.842.533.611.
389174Devon Central Mel Stride74,92677.542.
405158Forest of Dean Mark Harper71,43872.145.934.
407155Devon East Simon Jupp87,16873.527.
417146Dorset South Richard Drax73,80969.244.832.
421142Poole Robert Syms73,98968.243.730.713.
422140Cheltenham Alex Chalk81,04473.232.819.838.
424139Salisbury John Glen74,55672.
426137Totnes Anthony Mangnall69,86374.741.027.521.
433130Newton Abbot Anne Marie Morris72,52972.542.027.718.
448115Wiltshire South West Andrew Murrison77,96970.445.129.912.
456107Chippenham Michelle Donelan77,22173.939.223.628.
462101St Ives Derek Thomas68,79574.736.520.632.
463100Cornwall South East Sheryll Murray71,82574.745.
47192Devon South West Gary Streeter72,53573.647.230.710.
47786Tewkesbury Laurence Robertson83,95872.843.726.617.
47984Tiverton and Honiton Neil Parish82,95371.946.
48479Somerton and Frome David Warburton85,86675.641.924.321.
48875Taunton Deane Rebecca Pow88,67671.939.721.828.
49469Bridgwater and West Somerset Ian Liddell-Grainger85,32767.647.
50063Devon West and Torridge Geoffrey Cox80,40374.345.926.915.
50162Devizes Danny Kruger73,37269.446.327.
50954Cotswolds, The Geoffrey Clifton-Brown81,93974.743.724.319.
51152Torbay Kevin Foster75,05467.243.824.420.
51350Dorset West Chris Loder81,89774.441.722.
51548Wells James Heappey84,12473.339.820.330.
52538Thornbury and Yate Luke Hall69,49275.241.321.
52637Wiltshire North James Gray73,28074.743.823.421.
52835Devon North Selaine Saxby75,85973.342.021.525.
53726Yeovil Marcus Fysh82,46871.942.919.926.
53924Cornwall North Scott Mann69,93573.944.020.825.
54320Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson65,42774.844.720.524.
54419Dorset North Simon Hoare76,76573.148.023.816.
55211Christchurch Christopher Chope71,52072.650.923.713.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.