South West: Majority Sorted Seats

South West Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 52.8%48 51.0%00+048
LAB 23.4%6 28.8%00+06
LIB 18.2%1 11.7%00+01
Brexit 0.4%0 0.2%00+00
Green 3.8%0 5.0%00+00
Other 1.6%0 3.3%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bristol West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Dorset Mid and Poole North, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Somerset North (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Truro and Falmouth (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
31533Bristol West Thangam Debbonaire99,25376.110.663.30.00.725.10.00.3LABLAB
108456Bristol East Kerry McCarthy73,86770.630.657.
116448Bristol South Karin Smyth84,07965.630.855.
125439Exeter Ben Bradshaw82,05468.532.855.
164400Bristol North West Darren Jones76,27373.336.952.
170394Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Luke Pollard77,85268.337.
233331Truro and Falmouth Cherilyn Mackrory76,71977.
244320Stroud Siobhan Baillie84,53778.
254310Filton and Bradley Stoke Jack Lopresti74,01672.647.
274290Swindon South Robert Buckland73,11869.450.543.
278285Bath Wera Hobhouse67,80576.929.020.345.
292272Bournemouth East Tobias Ellwood74,12566.548.737.
295269Camborne and Redruth George Eustice70,25071.751.339.
302262Gloucester Richard Graham80,90166.552.438.
311253Bournemouth West Conor Burns74,20562.051.635.
315249Somerset North East Jacob Rees-Mogg73,69276.448.531.512.
321243Kingswood Chris Skidmore68,97271.554.436.
326238Somerset North Liam Fox80,19477.451.
340224Devon Central Mel Stride74,92677.553.430.
342222St Austell and Newquay Steve Double79,93069.854.
346218Swindon North Justin Tomlinson82,44166.957.333.
347217Weston-Super-Mare John Penrose82,52667.455.731.
351213Plymouth Moor View Johnny Mercer69,43063.758.834.
373191Totnes Anthony Mangnall69,86374.751.324.
376188Dorset South Richard Drax73,80969.
382182Forest of Dean Mark Harper71,43872.157.830.
391173Newton Abbot Anne Marie Morris72,52972.553.725.
398166Salisbury John Glen74,55672.154.525.
403161Poole Robert Syms73,98968.256.826.
414150Cornwall South East Sheryll Murray71,82574.757.426.
421143Wiltshire South West Andrew Murrison77,96970.458.326.
434130Tiverton and Honiton Neil Parish82,95371.958.425.
437127St Ives Derek Thomas68,79574.747.514.
443121Devon South West Gary Streeter72,53573.660.526.
446118Somerton and Frome David Warburton85,86675.654.
448116Cheltenham Alex Chalk81,04473.
450114Chippenham Michelle Donelan77,22173.952.418.525.
451113Tewkesbury Laurence Robertson83,95872.856.622.512.
454110Devon West and Torridge Geoffrey Cox80,40374.358.324.
46698Bridgwater and West Somerset Ian Liddell-Grainger85,32767.660.325.
47985Dorset West Chris Loder81,89774.453.316.722.
48777Taunton Deane Rebecca Pow88,67671.951.814.725.
48876Torbay Kevin Foster75,05467.257.420.314.
48975Cotswolds, The Geoffrey Clifton-Brown81,93974.756.218.915.
49767Wells James Heappey84,12473.352.314.328.
50658Devon North Selaine Saxby75,85973.354.816.420.
51252Wiltshire North James Gray73,28074.757.317.717.
51549Devizes Danny Kruger73,37269.461.321.
52143Thornbury and Yate Luke Hall69,49275.256.015.324.
52935Cornwall North Scott Mann69,93573.957.516.
53727Devon East Simon Jupp87,16873.549.
53826Dorset North Simon Hoare76,76573.161.819.311.
54024Yeovil Marcus Fysh82,46871.956.513.621.
54717Christchurch Christopher Chope71,52072.663.419.
54915Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson65,42774.858.514.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.