South West: Majority Sorted Seats

South West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 51.4%47 47.0%12-146
LAB 29.2%7 22.9%01-16
LIB 14.9%1 17.2%20+23
UKIP 1.1%0 4.5%00+00
Green 2.3%0 4.4%00+00
Minor 1.2%0 4.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bristol West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Christchurch, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Swindon North (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bristol North West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
33538Bristol West Thangam Debbonaire92,98677.010.759.19.43.114.90.00.02.8LABLAB
128443Bristol South Karin Smyth83,00965.526.253.35.76.64.90.00.03.2LABLAB
131440Exeter Ben Bradshaw77,32971.728.455.15.23.64.10.00.03.5LABLAB
143428Bristol East Kerry McCarthy72,41470.229.953.95.13.64.50.00.03.0LABLAB
195376Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Luke Pollard76,58466.935.546.54.86.23.50.00.03.5LABLAB
218353Bristol North West Darren Jones75,43171.737.443.87.63.64.60.00.03.0LABLAB
251320Stroud David Drew82,84977.041.540.25.65.24.50.00.03.0LABCON
284287Camborne and Redruth George Eustice67,46271.843.037.48.53.64.50.00.03.0CONCON
292279Swindon South Robert Buckland72,39170.843.936.86.46.13.70.00.03.0CONCON
301270Truro and Falmouth Sarah Newton74,69175.839.930.817.35.13.80.00.03.0CONCON
307264Filton and Bradley Stoke Jack Lopresti72,56969.945.534.98.43.64.60.00.03.0CONCON
315256Gloucester Richard Graham82,96365.245.933.37.46.33.70.00.03.4CONCON
317254Plymouth Moor View Johnny Mercer69,34265.547.434.04.47.63.50.00.03.0CONCON
333238Swindon North Justin Tomlinson80,19468.549.231.66.06.43.80.00.03.0CONCON
335236Kingswood Chris Skidmore69,42670.250.432.76.03.64.30.00.03.0CONCON
340231Bournemouth East Tobias Ellwood74,59165.247.428.78.96.54.80.00.03.6CONCON
344227Bournemouth West Conor Burns73,19560.849.129.49.03.65.10.00.03.9CONCON
351220Forest of Dean Mark Harper70,89873.049.829.16.36.04.70.00.04.1CONCON
355216Somerset North East Jacob Rees-Mogg71,35075.749.227.910.63.64.60.00.04.1CONCON
356214Bath Wera Hobhouse66,76974.331.39.749.33.04.20.00.02.5LIBLIB
367204Weston-Super-Mare John Penrose82,16068.748.725.911.67.03.90.00.03.0CONCON
368203St Austell and Newquay Steve Double78,61869.045.122.223.93.62.30.00.03.0CONCON
382189Dorset South Richard Drax72,32371.851.726.88.33.66.70.00.03.0CONCON
407164Bridgwater and West Somerset Ian Liddell-Grainger89,29465.350.721.813.37.24.10.00.03.0CONCON
410161Totnes Sarah Wollaston68,91372.949.220.015.36.06.50.00.03.0CONCON
412158St Ives Derek Thomas67,46275.938.79.444.52.91.90.00.02.5CONLIB
414157Devon Central Mel Stride74,37077.849.620.214.15.94.90.01.53.8CONCON
419152Somerset North Liam Fox80,53877.049.819.812.03.65.50.06.33.0CONCON
428143Poole Robert Syms73,81167.553.522.611.33.64.90.00.04.1CONCON
444127Devon South West Gary Streeter71,26274.255.423.17.66.54.40.00.03.0CONCON
449122Devon North Peter Heaton-Jones75,78473.541.48.439.94.93.10.00.02.3CONCON
464107Salisbury John Glen72,89273.153.618.713.65.84.40.00.03.8CONCON
469102Cornwall South East Sheryll Murray71,89674.051.015.821.83.64.80.00.03.0CONCON
470101Newton Abbot Anne Marie Morris71,72272.051.015.422.93.64.10.00.03.0CONCON
47398Wiltshire South West Andrew Murrison76,89871.255.519.712.23.64.90.00.04.1CONCON
47397Cheltenham Alex Chalk78,87572.342.26.343.82.43.20.00.02.1CONLIB
48190Torbay Kevin Foster75,93667.448.612.027.45.73.40.00.02.8CONCON
48289Devon East Hugo Swire82,38273.344.17.54.24.61.70.035.22.7CONCON
48487Tiverton and Honiton Neil Parish80,73171.656.920.310.43.65.80.00.03.0CONCON
49576Devon West and Torridge Geoffrey Cox80,52773.952.114.920.13.65.00.00.04.3CONCON
49873Chippenham Michelle Donelan76,43274.850.313.028.03.52.30.00.03.0CONCON
50566Wells James Heappey82,44973.845.77.739.42.71.70.00.02.8CONCON
50863Taunton Deane Rebecca Pow85,46673.848.410.129.75.33.80.00.02.6CONCON
50962Cornwall North Scott Mann68,85074.046.38.038.42.71.70.00.02.9CONCON
51061Dorset West Oliver Letwin79,04375.451.112.125.73.44.90.00.02.9CONCON
52447Tewkesbury Laurence Robertson81,44272.555.615.015.95.65.00.00.03.0CONCON
52843Somerton and Frome David Warburton84,43575.352.511.423.23.35.30.00.04.3CONCON
53437Yeovil Marcus Fysh82,91171.650.08.231.62.83.50.00.03.9CONCON
54031Thornbury and Yate Luke Hall67,92774.650.87.933.32.73.00.00.02.3CONCON
54625Devizes Claire Perry72,18470.158.314.211.76.95.50.00.03.5CONCON
54823Wiltshire North James Gray71,40875.255.911.519.94.94.20.00.03.5CONCON
54922Cotswolds, The Geoffrey Clifton-Brown80,44674.256.211.818.65.35.10.00.03.0CONCON
55615Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson65,05474.254.88.829.42.81.80.00.02.4CONCON
5638Dorset North Simon Hoare76,38573.060.512.315.93.45.10.00.02.9CONCON
5692Christchurch Christopher Chope70,32972.065.113.110.33.64.90.00.03.0CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.