South West: Majority Sorted Seats

South West Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 52.8%48 39.2%08-840
LAB 23.4%6 31.7%60+612
LIB 18.2%1 15.8%10+12
Reform 0.4%0 2.0%00+00
Green 3.8%0 6.4%00+00
Other 1.6%0 4.9%10+11

This page shows all the seats in South West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Bristol West, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Christchurch, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Kingswood (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bristol North West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South West seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2019
Win
Pred
Win
31532Bristol West Thangam Debbonaire99,25376.18.554.75.30.728.10.02.8LABLAB
117446Bristol East Kerry McCarthy73,86770.625.552.77.22.28.20.04.1LABLAB
122441Exeter Ben Bradshaw82,05468.526.152.74.71.910.70.03.9LABLAB
126437Bristol South Karin Smyth84,07965.624.951.28.22.29.20.04.3LABLAB
167396Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Luke Pollard77,85268.329.050.76.42.57.20.04.2LABLAB
177386Bristol North West Darren Jones76,27373.328.749.58.91.57.60.03.8LABLAB
263300Stroud Siobhan Baillie84,53778.036.944.24.31.98.90.03.8CONLAB
270293Truro and Falmouth Cherilyn Mackrory76,71977.234.841.611.61.76.40.04.0CONLAB
274289Filton and Bradley Stoke Jack Lopresti74,01672.636.142.49.11.86.40.04.0CONLAB
287276Swindon South Robert Buckland73,11869.438.442.88.11.95.00.03.8CONLAB
292270Bath Wera Hobhouse67,80576.921.225.144.61.24.60.03.3LIBLIB
305258Bournemouth East Tobias Ellwood74,12566.537.139.210.32.07.00.04.3CONLAB
314249Gloucester Richard Graham80,90166.540.140.27.72.25.80.03.9CONLAB
316247Camborne and Redruth George Eustice70,25071.739.739.68.52.15.80.04.3CONCON
319244Bournemouth West Conor Burns74,20562.038.437.810.42.17.20.04.0CONCON
326237Kingswood Chris Skidmore68,97271.542.039.17.02.25.60.04.2CONCON
338225Somerset North East Jacob Rees-Mogg73,69276.438.533.216.71.85.70.04.0CONCON
345218Swindon North Justin Tomlinson82,44166.942.937.07.72.26.10.04.0CONCON
355208Somerset North Liam Fox80,19477.439.832.715.11.76.80.03.9CONCON
363200Plymouth Moor View Johnny Mercer69,43063.745.237.15.92.55.40.03.9CONCON
374189Weston-Super-Mare John Penrose82,52667.442.733.911.42.15.80.04.0CONCON
376187St Austell and Newquay Steve Double79,93069.842.533.611.22.45.40.04.9CONCON
389174Devon Central Mel Stride74,92677.542.032.213.11.86.80.04.0CONCON
405158Forest of Dean Mark Harper71,43872.145.934.74.32.38.70.04.2CONCON
407155Devon East Simon Jupp87,16873.527.015.74.02.52.940.47.6CONMIN
417146Dorset South Richard Drax73,80969.244.832.99.52.36.30.04.3CONCON
421142Poole Robert Syms73,98968.243.730.713.12.35.90.04.3CONCON
422140Cheltenham Alex Chalk81,04473.232.819.838.51.53.80.03.5CONLIB
424139Salisbury John Glen74,55672.142.129.016.22.06.50.04.2CONCON
426137Totnes Anthony Mangnall69,86374.741.027.521.31.94.30.04.0CONCON
433130Newton Abbot Anne Marie Morris72,52972.542.027.718.82.15.20.04.2CONCON
448115Wiltshire South West Andrew Murrison77,96970.445.129.912.62.26.20.04.0CONCON
456107Chippenham Michelle Donelan77,22173.939.223.628.01.83.80.03.6CONCON
462101St Ives Derek Thomas68,79574.736.520.632.81.84.50.03.8CONCON
463100Cornwall South East Sheryll Murray71,82574.745.029.014.32.25.20.04.3CONCON
47192Devon South West Gary Streeter72,53573.647.230.710.22.15.80.04.0CONCON
47786Tewkesbury Laurence Robertson83,95872.843.726.617.72.06.10.03.9CONCON
47984Tiverton and Honiton Neil Parish82,95371.946.129.012.52.25.90.04.4CONCON
48479Somerton and Frome David Warburton85,86675.641.924.321.71.96.40.03.9CONCON
48875Taunton Deane Rebecca Pow88,67671.939.721.828.42.13.80.04.3CONCON
49469Bridgwater and West Somerset Ian Liddell-Grainger85,32767.647.229.011.82.45.30.04.3CONCON
50063Devon West and Torridge Geoffrey Cox80,40374.345.926.915.42.25.50.04.1CONCON
50162Devizes Danny Kruger73,37269.446.327.213.42.16.90.04.0CONCON
50954Cotswolds, The Geoffrey Clifton-Brown81,93974.743.724.319.81.86.50.03.9CONCON
51152Torbay Kevin Foster75,05467.243.824.420.72.34.60.04.1CONCON
51350Dorset West Chris Loder81,89774.441.722.225.11.85.40.03.7CONCON
51548Wells James Heappey84,12473.339.820.330.91.93.40.03.8CONCON
52538Thornbury and Yate Luke Hall69,49275.241.321.028.91.83.40.03.5CONCON
52637Wiltshire North James Gray73,28074.743.823.421.51.95.50.03.8CONCON
52835Devon North Selaine Saxby75,85973.342.021.525.52.15.00.04.0CONCON
53726Yeovil Marcus Fysh82,46871.942.919.926.52.24.60.04.0CONCON
53924Cornwall North Scott Mann69,93573.944.020.825.92.23.30.03.9CONCON
54320Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson65,42774.844.720.524.42.14.60.03.8CONCON
54419Dorset North Simon Hoare76,76573.148.023.816.62.25.60.03.9CONCON
55211Christchurch Christopher Chope71,52072.650.923.713.62.35.40.04.0CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.