Wales: Majority Sorted Seats

Wales Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 33.6%8 28.5%02-26
LAB 48.9%28 46.8%20+230
LIB 4.5%0 5.5%10+11
UKIP 2.0%0 6.1%00+00
Green 0.3%0 2.2%00+00
Plaid 10.4%4 10.4%01-13
Minor 0.2%0 0.5%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Rhondda, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Montgomeryshire, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Monmouth (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (prediction: Plaid).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Wales seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
Plaid
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
32537Rhondda Chris Bryant50,51365.27.561.91.55.41.222.30.00.2LABLAB
35534Aberavon Stephen Kinnock49,89166.713.166.02.87.91.78.30.00.2LABLAB
44525Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Gerald Jones55,46360.513.464.73.58.31.88.20.00.2LABLAB
60509Cardiff Central Jo Stevens59,28868.114.660.314.55.02.92.50.00.3LABLAB
62507Blaenau Gwent Nick Smith51,22763.210.955.91.86.41.521.22.10.2LABLAB
64505Cynon Valley Ann Clwyd51,33262.014.358.92.98.11.813.80.00.2LABLAB
82487Swansea East Carolyn Harris58,52160.120.761.32.87.12.94.80.00.3LABLAB
83486Ogmore Chris Elmore56,66165.719.960.32.77.51.97.50.00.3LABLAB
97472Neath Christina Rees55,85968.518.554.63.07.91.913.90.00.3LABLAB
104465Islwyn Chris Evans56,25664.222.056.73.08.61.97.60.00.3LABLAB
117452Llanelli Nia Griffith59,43467.918.451.32.47.51.918.20.00.3LABLAB
124445Cardiff South and Penarth Stephen Doughty76,49966.324.957.43.96.02.94.30.00.6LABLAB
125444Caerphilly Wayne David64,38164.120.052.32.87.23.014.40.00.3LABLAB
130439Pontypridd Owen Smith60,56665.921.553.36.06.81.910.30.00.3LABLAB
132437Swansea West Geraint Davies56,89265.526.157.64.54.23.14.10.00.5LABLAB
137432Cardiff West Kevin Brennan67,22169.424.554.53.75.71.99.50.00.3LABLAB
141428Torfaen Nick Thomas-Symonds61,83962.125.755.53.38.01.95.40.00.3LABLAB
151417Arfon Hywel Williams41,36768.212.138.43.23.61.640.80.00.2PlaidPlaid
158411Newport East Jessica Morden57,23364.329.554.43.77.41.92.40.00.8LABLAB
191378Ynys Mon Albert Owen52,44871.222.539.72.35.81.927.40.00.3LABLAB
196373Newport West Paul Flynn64,39967.534.050.23.36.73.02.50.00.3LABLAB
202367Alyn and Deeside Mark Tami63,04171.035.150.03.56.71.92.60.00.3LABLAB
203366Clwyd South Susan Elan Jones54,34169.033.848.63.06.31.96.10.00.3LABLAB
207362Bridgend Madeleine Moon62,18569.634.648.53.26.01.94.10.01.7LABLAB
208361Delyn David Hanson54,11672.836.250.13.74.21.93.80.00.3LABLAB
220349Cardiff North Anna McMorrin67,22177.436.948.04.45.31.93.30.00.3LABLAB
225344Gower Tonia Antoniazzi62,16373.337.547.73.15.61.93.70.00.6LABLAB
228341Vale of Clwyd Chris Ruane56,89068.038.848.12.84.21.94.00.00.3LABLAB
231338Wrexham Ian Lucas50,42269.638.446.83.54.21.95.00.00.3LABLAB
237331Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Jonathan Edwards55,97673.321.027.73.36.61.939.30.00.3PlaidPlaid
245323Ceredigion Ben Lake52,88975.213.618.030.05.43.129.20.00.6PlaidLIB
260309Preseli Pembrokeshire Stephen Crabb58,54072.138.140.53.76.21.96.42.90.3CONLAB
270299Aberconwy Guto Bebb45,25171.039.440.54.04.21.99.90.00.3CONLAB
285284Vale of Glamorgan Alun Cairns73,95872.642.241.33.05.82.74.30.00.8CONCON
302267Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Simon Hart58,54872.141.637.33.36.31.99.30.00.3CONCON
304264Dwyfor Meirionnydd Liz Roberts44,69967.923.918.54.26.21.945.10.00.3PlaidPlaid
305264Clwyd West David Jones58,26369.842.837.53.74.21.99.60.00.3CONCON
336233Monmouth David Davies64,90976.647.934.55.25.73.82.70.00.3CONCON
442127Brecon and Radnorshire Chris Davies56,01073.843.315.930.25.41.83.10.00.2CONCON
49277Montgomeryshire Glyn Davies50,75568.746.614.226.23.93.35.60.00.2CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.