Wales: Majority Sorted Seats

Wales Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 33.6%8 15.7%08-80
LAB 48.9%28 26.3%010-1018
LIB 4.5%0 12.7%20+22
Brexit 0.0%0 26.2%170+1717
Green 0.3%0 6.0%00+00
Plaid 10.4%4 11.1%01-13
UKIP 2.0%0 0.9%00+00
Other 0.2%0 1.1%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Rhondda, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Montgomeryshire, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Montgomeryshire (prediction: Brexit), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Ogmore (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Wales seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
57396Rhondda Chris Bryant50,51365.
69384Aberavon Stephen Kinnock49,89166.78.735.59.827.85.810.
78375Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Gerald Jones55,46360.58.834.
90363Blaenau Gwent Nick Smith51,22763.27.531.
97356Cardiff Central Jo Stevens59,28868.111.634.626.510.
102351Cynon Valley Ann Clwyd51,33262.09.532.19.827.
113340Swansea East Carolyn Harris58,52160.111.833.29.928.
116337Ogmore Chris Elmore56,66165.711.532.69.828.
128325Cardiff South and Penarth Stephen Doughty76,49966.315.635.012.619.
131322Islwyn Chris Evans56,25664.
132321Neath Christina Rees55,85968.511.229.710.
141312Cardiff West Kevin Brennan67,22169.415.432.612.718.86.711.
141311Llanelli Nia Griffith59,43467.911.
149304Swansea West Geraint Davies56,89265.515.932.615.
150303Caerphilly Wayne David64,38164.111.628.310.
155297Torfaen Nick Thomas-Symonds61,83962.113.329.39.930.
158295Pontypridd Owen Smith60,56665.912.728.414.823.96.511.
162291Newport East Jessica Morden57,23364.315.730.811.327.
174278Arfon Hywel Williams41,36768.29.523.512.017.15.630.
196257Newport West Paul Flynn64,39967.518.729.111.325.
204248Ynys Mon Albert Owen52,44871.213.422.89.326.15.421.
204248Alyn and Deeside Mark Tami63,04171.017.727.010.430.
204248Clwyd South Susan Elan Jones54,34169.
205247Delyn David Hanson54,11672.818.327.010.829.
207245Bridgend Madeleine Moon62,18569.618.226.511.427.
212240Vale of Clwyd Chris Ruane56,89068.019.827.09.828.
216236Wrexham Ian Lucas50,42269.619.225.410.828.
218235Cardiff North Anna McMorrin67,22177.421.927.914.519.
219233Gower Tonia Antoniazzi62,16373.320.
234218Preseli Pembrokeshire Stephen Crabb58,54072.119.723.29.930.
234218Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Jonathan Edwards55,97673.312.816.29.626.45.527.
245207Aberconwy Guto Bebb45,25171.020.222.811.327.55.610.
247205Ceredigion Ben Lake52,88975.
253199Vale of Glamorgan Alun Cairns73,95872.622.223.110.827.
256196Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Simon Hart58,54872.120.920.99.531.
257195Clwyd West David Jones58,26369.821.521.110.529.35.410.
263189Dwyfor Meirionnydd Liz Roberts44,69967.913.912.810.
282170Monmouth David Davies64,90976.625.
315137Brecon and Radnorshire Chris Davies56,01073.820.310.
322130Montgomeryshire Glyn Davies50,75568.720.59.525.431.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.