Wales: Sorted Seats

Wales Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 18.2%0 14.3%00+00
LAB 37.0%27 25.0%019-198
LIB 6.5%1 7.6%01-10
Reform 16.9%0 29.3%200+2020
Green 4.7%0 5.2%00+00
Plaid 14.8%4 16.9%00+04
Other 2.0%0 1.7%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Rhondda and Ogmore' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Ynys Mon (Anglesey)', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Ynys Mon (Anglesey) (prediction: Plaid), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Rhondda and Ogmore (prediction: Reform).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Wales seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
Plaid
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
62124Rhondda and Ogmore Chris Bryant74,49348.15.027.05.241.05.515.20.01.1LABReform
62124Aberafan Maesteg Stephen Kinnock72,58049.36.528.45.537.85.114.70.01.9LABReform
71116Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney Nick Smith70,15342.78.228.76.928.27.214.81.64.5LABLAB
74112Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare Gerald Jones74,46047.36.325.95.839.05.114.81.81.2LABReform
83104Cardiff East Jo Stevens72,87353.78.426.815.324.89.713.90.01.0LABLAB
86100Neath and Swansea East Carolyn Harris76,29152.67.425.47.138.85.415.00.01.0LABReform
8898Pontypridd Alex Davies-Jones75,95151.87.825.56.934.76.314.90.03.9LABReform
9492Bridgend Chris Elmore73,15256.613.029.96.930.45.410.40.03.9LABReform
9790Cardiff South and Penarth Stephen Doughty72,61354.013.530.28.619.511.316.20.00.8LABLAB
9987Swansea West Torsten Bell74,23648.07.924.310.833.57.314.80.01.4LABReform
11175Caerphilly Chris Evans72,64352.610.524.85.830.44.523.10.01.0LABReform
11473Cardiff North Anna McMorrin71,33566.518.132.08.119.45.915.80.00.7LABLAB
11671Gower Tonia Antoniazzi76,12362.016.630.07.026.55.014.00.01.0LABLAB
11670Newport West and Islwyn Ruth Jones75,78155.414.027.36.630.85.013.90.02.4LABReform
11868Torfaen Nick Thomas-Symonds71,73849.813.626.56.034.14.713.10.02.0LABReform
11868Newport East Jessica Morden76,84550.114.326.76.831.75.412.30.02.8LABReform
11868Alyn and Deeside Mark Tami75,79057.315.527.86.233.44.510.50.02.3LABReform
11968Cardiff West Alex Barros-Curtis75,47359.313.825.56.721.26.324.40.02.0LABLAB
12165Llanelli Nia Griffith71,53657.09.720.44.935.93.624.00.01.6LABReform
12363Wrexham Andrew Steven Ranger70,26957.517.828.16.630.74.411.30.01.1LABReform
12660Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr Steve Witherden74,03958.413.822.511.833.24.513.50.00.7LABReform
12759Clwyd East Becky Gittins76,63762.420.928.86.528.94.39.50.01.1LABReform
13354Vale of Glamorgan Kanishka Narayan74,37461.621.929.16.626.95.09.30.01.4LABLAB
13453Monmouthshire Catherine Fookes74,82368.026.132.17.322.44.86.10.01.1LABLAB
13452Bangor Aberconwy Claire Hughes69,02360.417.523.25.524.93.823.90.01.3LABReform
13848Pembrokeshire Mid and South Henry Tufnell79,03159.021.725.76.931.54.38.60.01.2LABReform
14145Clwyd North Gill German75,02755.522.225.56.331.84.39.20.00.7LABReform
14343Dwyfor Meirionnydd Liz Saville Roberts73,04255.38.511.05.525.94.443.20.01.4PlaidPlaid
14541Caerfyrddin (Carmarthen) Ann Davies74,00361.615.616.84.825.43.332.30.90.7PlaidPlaid
14541Ceredigion Preseli Ben Lake75,69061.210.010.310.420.93.742.72.00.0PlaidPlaid
14541Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe David Chadwick73,11463.719.718.320.728.63.87.70.01.2LIBReform
15729Ynys Mon (Anglesey) Llinos Medi53,14161.422.816.23.922.42.730.90.01.0PlaidPlaid

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.