Wales: Majority Sorted Seats

Wales Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 33.6%8 28.5%02-26
LAB 48.9%28 46.8%20+230
LIB 4.5%0 5.5%10+11
UKIP 2.0%0 6.1%00+00
Green 0.3%0 2.2%00+00
Plaid 10.4%4 10.4%01-13
Minor 0.2%0 0.5%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Rhondda, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Montgomeryshire, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Monmouth (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (prediction: Plaid).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Wales seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
32537Rhondda Chris Bryant50,51365.27.561.
35534Aberavon Stephen Kinnock49,89166.713.
44525Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Gerald Jones55,46360.513.464.
60509Cardiff Central Jo Stevens59,28868.114.660.314.
62507Blaenau Gwent Nick Smith51,22763.210.955.
64505Cynon Valley Ann Clwyd51,33262.014.358.
82487Swansea East Carolyn Harris58,52160.120.761.
83486Ogmore Chris Elmore56,66165.719.960.
97472Neath Christina Rees55,85968.518.554.
104465Islwyn Chris Evans56,25664.
117452Llanelli Nia Griffith59,43467.918.451.
124445Cardiff South and Penarth Stephen Doughty76,49966.324.957.
125444Caerphilly Wayne David64,38164.
130439Pontypridd Owen Smith60,56665.921.553.
132437Swansea West Geraint Davies56,89265.526.
137432Cardiff West Kevin Brennan67,22169.424.554.
141428Torfaen Nick Thomas-Symonds61,83962.125.755.
151417Arfon Hywel Williams41,36768.
158411Newport East Jessica Morden57,23364.329.554.
191378Ynys Mon Albert Owen52,44871.222.539.
196373Newport West Paul Flynn64,39967.534.
202367Alyn and Deeside Mark Tami63,04171.
203366Clwyd South Susan Elan Jones54,34169.033.848.
207362Bridgend Madeleine Moon62,18569.634.648.
208361Delyn David Hanson54,11672.836.
220349Cardiff North Anna McMorrin67,22177.436.948.
225344Gower Tonia Antoniazzi62,16373.337.547.
228341Vale of Clwyd Chris Ruane56,89068.038.848.
231338Wrexham Ian Lucas50,42269.638.446.
237331Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Jonathan Edwards55,97673.321.
245323Ceredigion Ben Lake52,88975.213.618.
260309Preseli Pembrokeshire Stephen Crabb58,54072.
270299Aberconwy Guto Bebb45,25171.039.440.
285284Vale of Glamorgan Alun Cairns73,95872.642.
302267Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Simon Hart58,54872.141.637.
304264Dwyfor Meirionnydd Liz Roberts44,69967.923.918.
305264Clwyd West David Jones58,26369.842.837.
336233Monmouth David Davies64,90976.647.934.
442127Brecon and Radnorshire Chris Davies56,01073.843.315.930.
49277Montgomeryshire Glyn Davies50,75568.746.614.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.