Wales: Majority Sorted Seats

Wales Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 33.6%8 21.1%05-53
LAB 48.9%28 40.4%50+533
LIB 4.5%0 5.1%00+00
UKIP 2.0%0 2.4%00+00
Green 0.3%0 2.9%00+00
Plaid 10.4%4 14.5%00+04
ChUK 0.0%0 4.4%00+00
Brexit 0.0%0 7.8%00+00
Minor 0.2%0 1.5%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Rhondda, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Montgomeryshire, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Monmouth (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Vale of Clwyd (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Wales seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
Plaid
%
ChUK
%
Brexit
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
43507Rhondda Chris Bryant50,51365.28.347.83.32.03.223.73.96.40.01.4LABLAB
44506Aberavon Stephen Kinnock49,89166.712.451.23.72.63.212.84.18.50.01.6LABLAB
48502Cardiff Central Jo Stevens59,28868.112.750.59.71.53.811.05.24.90.00.8LABLAB
50500Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Gerald Jones55,46360.512.649.94.12.73.312.84.28.70.01.7LABLAB
61489Blaenau Gwent Nick Smith51,22763.210.745.73.22.53.021.63.88.00.01.7LABLAB
71479Cynon Valley Ann Clwyd51,33262.013.346.23.82.53.317.14.18.10.01.6LABLAB
73477Swansea East Carolyn Harris58,52160.116.148.63.72.83.210.64.19.20.01.7LABLAB
80470Ogmore Chris Elmore56,66165.716.347.73.72.53.112.74.28.10.01.6LABLAB
85465Cardiff South and Penarth Stephen Doughty76,49966.318.048.84.32.23.210.84.27.30.01.2LABLAB
93457Swansea West Geraint Davies56,89265.518.648.04.82.13.011.04.46.90.01.3LABLAB
98452Cardiff West Kevin Brennan67,22169.418.147.14.31.82.814.44.26.10.01.1LABLAB
100450Neath Christina Rees55,85968.515.644.43.82.53.116.64.18.30.01.6LABLAB
101449Islwyn Chris Evans56,25664.217.145.53.82.83.312.24.29.20.01.8LABLAB
114436Caerphilly Wayne David64,38164.116.042.93.82.63.316.94.28.60.01.7LABLAB
115435Llanelli Nia Griffith59,43467.915.542.33.52.53.019.63.98.20.01.6LABLAB
116434Pontypridd Owen Smith60,56665.917.244.05.42.13.214.94.57.10.01.5LABLAB
122428Torfaen Nick Thomas-Symonds61,83962.118.945.23.83.03.010.44.19.70.01.9LABLAB
133417Newport East Jessica Morden57,23364.321.045.34.02.83.08.94.29.20.01.6LABLAB
134415Arfon Hywel Williams41,36768.211.135.24.21.22.636.73.74.20.01.0PlaidPlaid
171379Newport West Paul Flynn64,39967.523.743.24.02.73.18.84.38.80.01.5LABLAB
185365Ynys Mon Albert Owen52,44871.217.735.23.52.12.626.73.86.90.01.5LABLAB
186364Clwyd South Susan Elan Jones54,34169.024.141.53.72.72.510.84.08.90.01.7LABLAB
193357Alyn and Deeside Mark Tami63,04171.025.642.24.02.72.68.44.28.70.01.7LABLAB
195355Bridgend Madeleine Moon62,18569.624.641.14.12.63.110.04.48.60.01.7LABLAB
199351Delyn David Hanson54,11672.826.642.84.22.12.19.44.27.20.01.5LABLAB
201349Cardiff North Anna McMorrin67,22177.426.842.55.01.82.79.64.66.00.01.1LABLAB
213337Wrexham Ian Lucas50,42269.626.940.94.12.32.110.24.17.80.01.6LABLAB
214336Gower Tonia Antoniazzi62,16373.327.141.04.12.22.79.74.47.30.01.5LABLAB
218332Vale of Clwyd Chris Ruane56,89068.027.340.93.92.22.210.44.27.30.01.5LABLAB
245304Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Jonathan Edwards55,97673.317.027.23.82.12.835.13.77.00.01.5PlaidPlaid
249301Preseli Pembrokeshire Stephen Crabb58,54072.127.537.04.12.72.611.34.28.80.01.7CONLAB
256294Aberconwy Guto Bebb45,25171.027.836.34.52.02.214.54.36.90.01.5CONLAB
259290Ceredigion Ben Lake52,88975.213.321.516.52.23.428.46.07.40.01.3PlaidPlaid
264286Vale of Glamorgan Alun Cairns73,95872.629.036.94.02.72.99.74.48.80.01.7CONLAB
292258Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Simon Hart58,54872.128.933.83.92.72.513.34.18.90.01.7CONLAB
298252Clwyd West David Jones58,26369.829.934.14.32.22.114.34.27.40.01.6CONLAB
301248Dwyfor Meirionnydd Liz Roberts44,69967.918.021.84.32.02.839.13.86.70.01.5PlaidPlaid
326224Monmouth David Davies64,90976.633.432.45.12.72.98.14.69.00.01.7CONCON
434116Brecon and Radnorshire Chris Davies56,01073.831.520.517.32.62.68.46.68.80.01.6CONCON
47278Montgomeryshire Glyn Davies50,75568.732.619.514.72.92.510.26.29.60.01.8CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.