Wales: Sorted Seats

Wales Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 18.2%0 18.2%00+00
LAB 37.0%27 37.0%00+027
LIB 6.5%1 6.6%00+01
Reform 16.9%0 16.9%00+00
Green 4.7%0 4.7%00+00
Plaid 14.8%4 14.8%00+04
Other 2.0%0 1.9%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Rhondda and Ogmore' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Ynys Mon (Anglesey)', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Clwyd East (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Alyn and Deeside (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Wales seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
Plaid
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
49485Rhondda and Ogmore Chris Bryant74,49348.15.747.82.626.13.314.50.00.0LABLAB
52482Aberafan Maesteg Stephen Kinnock72,58049.38.149.92.620.93.113.20.02.2LABLAB
62472Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney Nick Smith70,15342.712.753.64.40.15.712.81.98.7LABLAB
88446Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare Gerald Jones74,46047.37.744.83.723.73.513.51.51.6LABLAB
136398Neath and Swansea East Carolyn Harris76,29152.69.441.85.825.34.313.30.00.0LABLAB
143391Pontypridd Alex Davies-Jones75,95151.89.741.24.219.94.713.40.06.9LABLAB
144390Swansea West Torsten Bell74,23648.09.941.412.317.56.511.50.00.9LABLAB
153381Cardiff South and Penarth Stephen Doughty72,61354.013.944.57.411.514.48.20.00.0LABLAB
154380Cardiff East Jo Stevens72,87353.710.040.517.212.710.09.10.00.5LABLAB
179355Caerphilly Chris Evans72,64352.611.538.04.720.34.321.20.00.0LABLAB
180354Torfaen Nick Thomas-Symonds71,73849.816.142.54.722.04.87.20.02.7LABLAB
186348Newport East Jessica Morden76,84550.116.942.55.419.15.45.80.04.8LABLAB
190344Newport West and Islwyn Ruth Jones75,78155.416.041.55.120.45.08.40.03.7LABLAB
200334Gower Tonia Antoniazzi76,12362.018.943.45.518.15.38.30.00.6LABLAB
205329Alyn and Deeside Mark Tami75,79057.318.242.44.822.24.44.50.03.5LABLAB
211323Cardiff North Anna McMorrin71,33566.520.343.96.712.66.79.80.00.0LABLAB
212322Bridgend Chris Elmore73,15256.616.439.93.719.24.38.80.07.7LABLAB
229305Cardiff West Alex Barros-Curtis75,47359.315.336.74.412.67.121.10.02.9LABLAB
237297Llanelli Nia Griffith71,53657.010.531.33.127.62.723.30.01.4LABLAB
283251Wrexham Andrew Steven Ranger70,26957.524.539.24.417.13.310.20.01.1LABLAB
304230Bangor Aberconwy Claire Hughes69,02360.421.733.63.714.63.321.90.01.2LABLAB
311223Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr Steve Witherden74,03958.418.029.415.020.64.013.10.00.0LABLAB
329205Clwyd East Becky Gittins76,63762.429.038.63.916.03.57.80.01.2LABLAB
335199Vale of Glamorgan Kanishka Narayan74,37461.629.538.73.615.24.17.10.01.8LABLAB
359175Monmouthshire Catherine Fookes74,82368.034.841.34.510.74.62.50.01.5LABLAB
373160Carmarthen Ann Davies74,00361.619.424.13.215.23.034.00.50.6PlaidPlaid
376158Pembrokeshire Mid and South Henry Tufnell79,03159.031.435.45.116.83.56.40.01.4LABLAB
382151Dwyfor Meirionnydd Liz Saville Roberts73,04255.311.714.63.412.03.653.90.00.7PlaidPlaid
384150Clwyd North Gill German75,02755.532.735.54.116.83.37.60.00.0LABLAB
400133Ceredigion Preseli Ben Lake75,69061.210.311.615.011.64.046.90.50.0PlaidPlaid
44489Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe David Chadwick73,11463.726.421.329.514.12.64.90.01.3LIBLIB
45974Ynys Mon (Anglesey) Llinos Medi53,14161.430.523.31.49.91.932.50.00.6PlaidPlaid

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.