Wales: Sorted Seats
Wales Prediction
| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 18.2% | 0 | 20.4% | 5 | 0 | +5 | 5 |
| LAB | 37.0% | 27 | 21.5% | 0 | 19 | -19 | 8 |
| LIB | 6.5% | 1 | 9.5% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| Reform | 16.9% | 0 | 24.3% | 15 | 0 | +15 | 15 |
| Green | 4.7% | 0 | 7.1% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Plaid | 14.8% | 4 | 15.3% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 4 |
| Other | 2.0% | 0 | 1.9% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Rhondda and Ogmore' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Clwyd North', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Clwyd North (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Rhondda and Ogmore (prediction: Reform).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
List of Wales seats with predictions
| LAB Seats | CON Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | Plaid % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 112 | 159 | Rhondda and Ogmore | Chris Bryant | 74,493 | 48.1 | 12.9 | 26.2 | 7.5 | 29.5 | 7.3 | 15.3 | 0.0 | 1.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 112 | 159 | Aberafan Maesteg | Stephen Kinnock | 72,580 | 49.3 | 14.0 | 26.9 | 7.9 | 27.2 | 7.0 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 124 | 148 | Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney | Nick Smith | 70,153 | 42.7 | 16.5 | 27.1 | 9.7 | 17.7 | 8.7 | 15.4 | 1.5 | 3.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 125 | 146 | Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare | Gerald Jones | 74,460 | 47.3 | 14.2 | 24.7 | 7.8 | 27.7 | 7.3 | 14.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 131 | 141 | Cardiff East | Jo Stevens | 72,873 | 53.7 | 14.6 | 24.3 | 15.4 | 17.8 | 13.4 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 1.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 135 | 137 | Pontypridd | Alex Davies-Jones | 75,951 | 51.8 | 15.1 | 24.5 | 9.5 | 24.2 | 8.5 | 14.6 | 0.0 | 3.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 135 | 136 | Neath and Swansea East | Carolyn Harris | 76,291 | 52.6 | 14.6 | 24.0 | 9.0 | 28.5 | 7.6 | 14.9 | 0.0 | 1.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 146 | 126 | Swansea West | Torsten Bell | 74,236 | 48.0 | 15.4 | 23.1 | 12.5 | 22.9 | 10.0 | 14.4 | 0.0 | 1.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 148 | 124 | Cardiff South and Penarth | Stephen Doughty | 72,613 | 54.0 | 18.4 | 25.8 | 10.5 | 16.6 | 14.8 | 12.6 | 0.0 | 1.3 | LAB | LAB |
| 159 | 113 | Cardiff North | Anna McMorrin | 71,335 | 66.5 | 22.8 | 28.3 | 10.2 | 16.6 | 9.2 | 11.7 | 0.0 | 1.3 | LAB | LAB |
| 163 | 109 | Gower | Tonia Antoniazzi | 76,123 | 62.0 | 21.4 | 26.4 | 9.2 | 22.6 | 7.1 | 11.8 | 0.0 | 1.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 165 | 106 | Caerphilly | Chris Evans | 72,643 | 52.6 | 17.9 | 21.9 | 8.2 | 25.8 | 6.5 | 18.2 | 0.0 | 1.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 165 | 106 | Newport West and Islwyn | Ruth Jones | 75,781 | 55.4 | 20.5 | 24.3 | 9.3 | 25.3 | 7.1 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 2.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 166 | 106 | Cardiff West | Alex Barros-Curtis | 75,473 | 59.3 | 19.1 | 22.8 | 9.1 | 18.0 | 9.3 | 19.3 | 0.0 | 2.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 166 | 105 | Alyn and Deeside | Mark Tami | 75,790 | 57.3 | 21.1 | 24.7 | 8.9 | 27.3 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 168 | 103 | Llanelli | Nia Griffith | 71,536 | 57.0 | 16.0 | 18.7 | 7.4 | 30.1 | 5.0 | 20.9 | 0.0 | 1.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 168 | 103 | Newport East | Jessica Morden | 76,845 | 50.1 | 20.8 | 23.5 | 9.5 | 25.8 | 7.4 | 10.2 | 0.0 | 2.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 168 | 103 | Torfaen | Nick Thomas-Symonds | 71,738 | 49.8 | 20.7 | 23.2 | 8.7 | 27.9 | 6.6 | 10.6 | 0.0 | 2.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 174 | 97 | Bridgend | Chris Elmore | 73,152 | 56.6 | 21.5 | 22.8 | 9.4 | 27.0 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 0.0 | 3.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 182 | 90 | Bangor Aberconwy | Claire Hughes | 69,023 | 60.4 | 21.8 | 20.6 | 7.8 | 21.2 | 5.5 | 21.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | LAB | CON |
| 185 | 86 | Dwyfor Meirionnydd | Liz Saville Roberts | 73,042 | 55.3 | 13.2 | 10.7 | 6.9 | 19.5 | 5.7 | 43.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | Plaid | Plaid |
| 187 | 84 | Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr | Steve Witherden | 74,039 | 58.4 | 20.0 | 16.5 | 12.9 | 31.6 | 5.9 | 12.1 | 0.0 | 0.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 188 | 83 | Wrexham | Andrew Steven Ranger | 70,269 | 57.5 | 25.0 | 21.2 | 8.2 | 28.4 | 6.2 | 9.5 | 0.0 | 1.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 189 | 82 | Ceredigion Preseli | Ben Lake | 75,690 | 61.2 | 14.0 | 9.3 | 12.1 | 19.4 | 5.2 | 38.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | Plaid | Plaid |
| 189 | 82 | Caerfyrddin (Carmarthen) | Ann Davies | 74,003 | 61.6 | 20.0 | 15.3 | 6.7 | 22.6 | 4.7 | 28.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | Plaid | Plaid |
| 191 | 81 | Clwyd East | Becky Gittins | 76,637 | 62.4 | 27.4 | 21.9 | 8.0 | 26.8 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 0.0 | 1.3 | LAB | CON |
| 195 | 77 | Vale of Glamorgan | Kanishka Narayan | 74,374 | 61.6 | 28.8 | 22.1 | 8.1 | 24.9 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 1.6 | LAB | CON |
| 200 | 72 | Monmouthshire | Catherine Fookes | 74,823 | 68.0 | 31.3 | 24.1 | 8.8 | 21.9 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 0.0 | 1.3 | LAB | CON |
| 204 | 67 | Pembrokeshire Mid and South | Henry Tufnell | 79,031 | 59.0 | 27.5 | 19.2 | 8.3 | 29.7 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 0.0 | 1.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 216 | 55 | Ynys Mon (Anglesey) | Llinos Medi | 53,141 | 61.4 | 25.5 | 14.7 | 5.8 | 20.2 | 3.8 | 29.1 | 0.0 | 1.0 | Plaid | Plaid |
| 218 | 53 | Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe | David Chadwick | 73,114 | 63.7 | 25.2 | 13.9 | 21.0 | 26.3 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 0.0 | 1.1 | LIB | Reform |
| 220 | 52 | Clwyd North | Gill German | 75,027 | 55.5 | 30.6 | 19.1 | 7.6 | 27.5 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 | LAB | CON |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.
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