Wales: Majority Sorted Seats

Wales Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 33.6%8 21.1%05-53
LAB 48.9%28 40.4%50+533
LIB 4.5%0 5.1%00+00
UKIP 2.0%0 2.4%00+00
Green 0.3%0 2.9%00+00
Plaid 10.4%4 14.5%00+04
ChUK 0.0%0 4.4%00+00
Brexit 0.0%0 7.8%00+00
Minor 0.2%0 1.5%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Rhondda, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Montgomeryshire, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Monmouth (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Vale of Clwyd (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Wales seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
43507Rhondda Chris Bryant50,51365.28.347.
44506Aberavon Stephen Kinnock49,89166.712.451.
48502Cardiff Central Jo Stevens59,28868.112.750.
50500Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Gerald Jones55,46360.512.649.
61489Blaenau Gwent Nick Smith51,22763.210.745.
71479Cynon Valley Ann Clwyd51,33262.013.346.
73477Swansea East Carolyn Harris58,52160.
80470Ogmore Chris Elmore56,66165.716.347.
85465Cardiff South and Penarth Stephen Doughty76,49966.318.
93457Swansea West Geraint Davies56,89265.518.648.
98452Cardiff West Kevin Brennan67,22169.418.
100450Neath Christina Rees55,85968.515.644.
101449Islwyn Chris Evans56,25664.
114436Caerphilly Wayne David64,38164.
115435Llanelli Nia Griffith59,43467.915.542.
116434Pontypridd Owen Smith60,56665.917.
122428Torfaen Nick Thomas-Symonds61,83962.118.945.
133417Newport East Jessica Morden57,23364.321.
134415Arfon Hywel Williams41,36768.
171379Newport West Paul Flynn64,39967.523.743.
185365Ynys Mon Albert Owen52,44871.217.735.
186364Clwyd South Susan Elan Jones54,34169.
193357Alyn and Deeside Mark Tami63,04171.025.642.
195355Bridgend Madeleine Moon62,18569.624.641.
199351Delyn David Hanson54,11672.826.642.
201349Cardiff North Anna McMorrin67,22177.426.842.
213337Wrexham Ian Lucas50,42269.626.940.
214336Gower Tonia Antoniazzi62,16373.327.
218332Vale of Clwyd Chris Ruane56,89068.027.340.
245304Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Jonathan Edwards55,97673.317.
249301Preseli Pembrokeshire Stephen Crabb58,54072.127.537.
256294Aberconwy Guto Bebb45,25171.027.836.
259290Ceredigion Ben Lake52,88975.213.321.516.52.23.428.
264286Vale of Glamorgan Alun Cairns73,95872.629.
292258Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Simon Hart58,54872.128.933.
298252Clwyd West David Jones58,26369.829.934.
301248Dwyfor Meirionnydd Liz Roberts44,69967.918.
326224Monmouth David Davies64,90976.633.432.
434116Brecon and Radnorshire Chris Davies56,01073.831.520.517.
47278Montgomeryshire Glyn Davies50,75568.732.619.514.72.92.510.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.