Wales: Majority Sorted Seats

Wales Prediction

Party	2017 Votes	2017 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	33.6%	8	28.5%	0	2	-2	6
LAB	48.9%	28	46.8%	2	0	+2	30
LIB	4.5%	0	5.5%	1	0	+1	1
UKIP	2.0%	0	6.1%	0	0	+0	0
Green	0.3%	0	2.2%	0	0	+0	0
Plaid	10.4%	4	10.4%	0	1	-1	3
Minor	0.2%	0	0.5%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Rhondda, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Montgomeryshire, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Monmouth (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (prediction: Plaid).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Wales seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2017	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	UKIP %	Green %	Plaid %	MIN %	OTH %	2017 Win	Pred Win
32	537	Rhondda	Chris Bryant	50,513	65.2	7.5	61.9	1.5	5.4	1.2	22.3	0.0	0.2	LAB	LAB
35	534	Aberavon	Stephen Kinnock	49,891	66.7	13.1	66.0	2.8	7.9	1.7	8.3	0.0	0.2	LAB	LAB
44	525	Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney	Gerald Jones	55,463	60.5	13.4	64.7	3.5	8.3	1.8	8.2	0.0	0.2	LAB	LAB
60	509	Cardiff Central	Jo Stevens	59,288	68.1	14.6	60.3	14.5	5.0	2.9	2.5	0.0	0.3	LAB	LAB
62	507	Blaenau Gwent	Nick Smith	51,227	63.2	10.9	55.9	1.8	6.4	1.5	21.2	2.1	0.2	LAB	LAB
64	505	Cynon Valley	Ann Clwyd	51,332	62.0	14.3	58.9	2.9	8.1	1.8	13.8	0.0	0.2	LAB	LAB
82	487	Swansea East	Carolyn Harris	58,521	60.1	20.7	61.3	2.8	7.1	2.9	4.8	0.0	0.3	LAB	LAB
83	486	Ogmore	Chris Elmore	56,661	65.7	19.9	60.3	2.7	7.5	1.9	7.5	0.0	0.3	LAB	LAB
97	472	Neath	Christina Rees	55,859	68.5	18.5	54.6	3.0	7.9	1.9	13.9	0.0	0.3	LAB	LAB
104	465	Islwyn	Chris Evans	56,256	64.2	22.0	56.7	3.0	8.6	1.9	7.6	0.0	0.3	LAB	LAB
117	452	Llanelli	Nia Griffith	59,434	67.9	18.4	51.3	2.4	7.5	1.9	18.2	0.0	0.3	LAB	LAB
124	445	Cardiff South and Penarth	Stephen Doughty	76,499	66.3	24.9	57.4	3.9	6.0	2.9	4.3	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
125	444	Caerphilly	Wayne David	64,381	64.1	20.0	52.3	2.8	7.2	3.0	14.4	0.0	0.3	LAB	LAB
130	439	Pontypridd	Owen Smith	60,566	65.9	21.5	53.3	6.0	6.8	1.9	10.3	0.0	0.3	LAB	LAB
132	437	Swansea West	Geraint Davies	56,892	65.5	26.1	57.6	4.5	4.2	3.1	4.1	0.0	0.5	LAB	LAB
137	432	Cardiff West	Kevin Brennan	67,221	69.4	24.5	54.5	3.7	5.7	1.9	9.5	0.0	0.3	LAB	LAB
141	428	Torfaen	Nick Thomas-Symonds	61,839	62.1	25.7	55.5	3.3	8.0	1.9	5.4	0.0	0.3	LAB	LAB
151	417	Arfon	Hywel Williams	41,367	68.2	12.1	38.4	3.2	3.6	1.6	40.8	0.0	0.2	Plaid	Plaid
158	411	Newport East	Jessica Morden	57,233	64.3	29.5	54.4	3.7	7.4	1.9	2.4	0.0	0.8	LAB	LAB
191	378	Ynys Mon	Albert Owen	52,448	71.2	22.5	39.7	2.3	5.8	1.9	27.4	0.0	0.3	LAB	LAB
196	373	Newport West	Paul Flynn	64,399	67.5	34.0	50.2	3.3	6.7	3.0	2.5	0.0	0.3	LAB	LAB
202	367	Alyn and Deeside	Mark Tami	63,041	71.0	35.1	50.0	3.5	6.7	1.9	2.6	0.0	0.3	LAB	LAB
203	366	Clwyd South	Susan Elan Jones	54,341	69.0	33.8	48.6	3.0	6.3	1.9	6.1	0.0	0.3	LAB	LAB
207	362	Bridgend	Madeleine Moon	62,185	69.6	34.6	48.5	3.2	6.0	1.9	4.1	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
208	361	Delyn	David Hanson	54,116	72.8	36.2	50.1	3.7	4.2	1.9	3.8	0.0	0.3	LAB	LAB
220	349	Cardiff North	Anna McMorrin	67,221	77.4	36.9	48.0	4.4	5.3	1.9	3.3	0.0	0.3	LAB	LAB
225	344	Gower	Tonia Antoniazzi	62,163	73.3	37.5	47.7	3.1	5.6	1.9	3.7	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
228	341	Vale of Clwyd	Chris Ruane	56,890	68.0	38.8	48.1	2.8	4.2	1.9	4.0	0.0	0.3	LAB	LAB
231	338	Wrexham	Ian Lucas	50,422	69.6	38.4	46.8	3.5	4.2	1.9	5.0	0.0	0.3	LAB	LAB
237	331	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Jonathan Edwards	55,976	73.3	21.0	27.7	3.3	6.6	1.9	39.3	0.0	0.3	Plaid	Plaid
245	323	Ceredigion	Ben Lake	52,889	75.2	13.6	18.0	30.0	5.4	3.1	29.2	0.0	0.6	Plaid	LIB
260	309	Preseli Pembrokeshire	Stephen Crabb	58,540	72.1	38.1	40.5	3.7	6.2	1.9	6.4	2.9	0.3	CON	LAB
270	299	Aberconwy	Guto Bebb	45,251	71.0	39.4	40.5	4.0	4.2	1.9	9.9	0.0	0.3	CON	LAB
285	284	Vale of Glamorgan	Alun Cairns	73,958	72.6	42.2	41.3	3.0	5.8	2.7	4.3	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
302	267	Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South	Simon Hart	58,548	72.1	41.6	37.3	3.3	6.3	1.9	9.3	0.0	0.3	CON	CON
304	264	Dwyfor Meirionnydd	Liz Roberts	44,699	67.9	23.9	18.5	4.2	6.2	1.9	45.1	0.0	0.3	Plaid	Plaid
305	264	Clwyd West	David Jones	58,263	69.8	42.8	37.5	3.7	4.2	1.9	9.6	0.0	0.3	CON	CON
336	233	Monmouth	David Davies	64,909	76.6	47.9	34.5	5.2	5.7	3.8	2.7	0.0	0.3	CON	CON
442	127	Brecon and Radnorshire	Chris Davies	56,010	73.8	43.3	15.9	30.2	5.4	1.8	3.1	0.0	0.2	CON	CON
492	77	Montgomeryshire	Glyn Davies	50,755	68.7	46.6	14.2	26.2	3.9	3.3	5.6	0.0	0.2	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.