Wales: Majority Sorted Seats

Wales Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 36.1%14 22.2%012-122
LAB 40.9%22 46.5%110+1133
LIB 6.0%0 5.6%00+00
Reform 5.4%0 3.3%00+00
Green 1.0%0 2.5%00+00
Plaid 9.9%4 18.1%10+15
Other 0.6%0 1.8%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Cardiff Central, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Brecon and Radnorshire, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Montgomeryshire (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Aberconwy (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Wales seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
28527Cardiff Central Jo Stevens64,03765.311.061.510.
60495Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Gerald Jones56,32257.313.
61494Rhondda Chris Bryant50,26259.010.653.
65490Aberavon Stephen Kinnock50,75062.313.855.
70485Blaenau Gwent Nick Smith50,73959.614.
76479Cynon Valley Beth Winter51,13459.114.453.
81474Cardiff South and Penarth Stephen Doughty78,83764.
85470Swansea West Geraint Davies57,07862.817.
87468Swansea East Carolyn Harris58,45057.417.
90465Cardiff West Kevin Brennan68,50867.416.553.
92463Ogmore Chris Elmore57,58161.517.
107448Islwyn Chris Evans55,42362.018.650.
109446Cardiff North Anna McMorrin68,43877.021.953.
113442Pontypridd Alex Davies-Jones60,32764.717.949.
117438Caerphilly Wayne David63,16663.517.
122433Neath Christina Rees56,41965.117.847.
127428Torfaen Nick Thomas-Symonds62,33059.620.850.
157398Newport East Jessica Morden58,55462.
167388Llanelli Nia Griffith60,51863.218.543.
173382Newport West Ruth Jones66,65765.
175380Gower Tonia Antoniazzi61,76272.025.549.
177377Arfon Hywel Williams42,21568.98.632.
181374Alyn and Deeside Mark Tami62,78968.526.
192363Bridgend Jamie Wallis63,30366.725.947.
197358Delyn Rob Roberts54,56070.327.748.
200355Clwyd South Simon Baynes53,91967.327.347.
206349Vale of Clwyd James Davies56,64965.728.747.
210345Vale of Glamorgan Alun Cairns76,50871.630.
215340Wrexham Sarah Atherton49,73767.427.846.
223332Aberconwy Robin Millar44,69971.328.
235319Ceredigion Ben Lake56,38671.113.227.310.82.32.342.41.6PlaidPlaid
242313Preseli Pembrokeshire Stephen Crabb59,60671.230.944.
246308Ynys Mon Virginia Crosbie51,92570.421.634.
266289Monmouth David Davies67,09874.832.642.
270285Clwyd West David Jones57,71469.731.
281274Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Simon Hart59,15871.232.541.
301253Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Jonathan Edwards57,41971.420.326.
319235Dwyfor Meirionnydd Liz Saville Roberts44,36267.518.420.
340215Montgomeryshire Craig Williams48,99769.836.033.715.
348207Brecon and Radnorshire Fay Jones55,49074.533.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.