| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 18.2% | 0 | 12.7% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| LAB | 37.0% | 27 | 21.0% | 0 | 23 | -23 | 4 |
| LIB | 6.5% | 1 | 9.5% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| Reform | 16.9% | 0 | 28.6% | 24 | 0 | +24 | 24 |
| Green | 4.7% | 0 | 7.5% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Plaid | 14.8% | 4 | 16.1% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 4 |
| Other | 2.0% | 0 | 4.6% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Cardiff North' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Caerfyrddin (Carmarthen)', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Llanelli (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Cardiff East (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | Plaid % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 366 | Cardiff North | Anna McMorrin | 71,335 | 66.5 | 13.2 | 28.1 | 10.6 | 20.3 | 8.0 | 16.3 | 3.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 97 | 358 | Cardiff South and Penarth | Stephen Doughty | 72,613 | 54.0 | 10.6 | 25.6 | 8.7 | 19.1 | 16.1 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 118 | 337 | Cardiff East | Jo Stevens | 72,873 | 53.7 | 5.7 | 29.3 | 12.5 | 24.7 | 13.4 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 140 | 315 | Cardiff West | Alex Barros-Curtis | 75,473 | 59.3 | 11.5 | 22.2 | 8.2 | 21.5 | 10.2 | 20.7 | 5.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 150 | 305 | Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney | Nick Smith | 70,153 | 42.7 | 3.6 | 33.2 | 8.7 | 33.9 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 153 | 302 | Monmouthshire | Catherine Fookes | 74,823 | 68.0 | 22.6 | 25.8 | 10.5 | 26.7 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 171 | 284 | Swansea West | Torsten Bell | 74,236 | 48.0 | 4.3 | 29.3 | 9.9 | 33.8 | 10.2 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 175 | 280 | Bangor Aberconwy | Claire Hughes | 69,023 | 60.4 | 13.2 | 19.7 | 10.0 | 24.5 | 4.9 | 23.8 | 4.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 180 | 275 | Gower | Tonia Antoniazzi | 76,123 | 62.0 | 5.5 | 31.9 | 8.3 | 37.1 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 193 | 262 | Vale of Glamorgan | Kanishka Narayan | 74,374 | 61.6 | 19.2 | 20.5 | 8.8 | 27.3 | 6.0 | 14.0 | 4.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 201 | 254 | Clwyd East | Becky Gittins | 76,637 | 62.4 | 18.5 | 21.5 | 8.5 | 28.7 | 5.7 | 13.3 | 3.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 206 | 249 | Bridgend | Chris Elmore | 73,152 | 56.6 | 5.0 | 30.1 | 8.3 | 37.8 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 207 | 248 | Wrexham | Andrew Steven Ranger | 70,269 | 57.5 | 12.6 | 23.8 | 9.4 | 31.6 | 5.3 | 13.6 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 210 | 245 | Aberafan Maesteg | Stephen Kinnock | 72,580 | 49.3 | 3.0 | 32.1 | 7.3 | 40.3 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 211 | 244 | Pontypridd | Alex Davies-Jones | 75,951 | 51.8 | 5.4 | 27.6 | 8.6 | 35.8 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 240 | 215 | Newport West and Islwyn | Ruth Jones | 75,781 | 55.4 | 4.5 | 30.0 | 8.0 | 40.5 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 241 | 214 | Newport East | Jessica Morden | 76,845 | 50.1 | 4.7 | 29.1 | 8.2 | 39.6 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 242 | 213 | Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe | David Chadwick | 73,114 | 63.7 | 14.0 | 17.3 | 22.3 | 27.8 | 4.6 | 11.1 | 2.9 | 0.0 | LIB | Reform |
| 244 | 211 | Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare | Gerald Jones | 74,460 | 47.3 | 4.3 | 28.1 | 7.7 | 39.0 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 247 | 208 | Rhondda and Ogmore | Chris Bryant | 74,493 | 48.1 | 2.8 | 30.3 | 7.0 | 41.6 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 248 | 207 | Neath and Swansea East | Carolyn Harris | 76,291 | 52.6 | 6.0 | 25.6 | 8.0 | 37.0 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 254 | 201 | Alyn and Deeside | Mark Tami | 75,790 | 57.3 | 6.1 | 28.4 | 7.9 | 40.1 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 256 | 199 | Pembrokeshire Mid and South | Henry Tufnell | 79,031 | 59.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 9.6 | 32.1 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 258 | 197 | Caerphilly | Chris Evans | 72,643 | 52.6 | 9.1 | 19.2 | 8.8 | 31.6 | 6.4 | 19.5 | 5.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 280 | 175 | Clwyd North | Gill German | 75,027 | 55.5 | 19.3 | 19.5 | 9.1 | 33.8 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 286 | 169 | Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr | Steve Witherden | 74,039 | 58.4 | 13.5 | 16.2 | 11.6 | 31.1 | 7.4 | 16.4 | 3.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 291 | 163 | Ceredigion Preseli | Ben Lake | 75,690 | 61.2 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 13.4 | 22.2 | 6.5 | 39.6 | 4.8 | 0.0 | Plaid | Plaid |
| 300 | 155 | Torfaen | Nick Thomas-Symonds | 71,738 | 49.8 | 4.2 | 28.4 | 7.6 | 44.2 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 328 | 127 | Llanelli | Nia Griffith | 71,536 | 57.0 | 8.6 | 17.2 | 7.6 | 35.5 | 5.9 | 20.4 | 4.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 355 | 99 | Ynys Mon (Anglesey) | Llinos Medi | 53,141 | 61.4 | 13.2 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 28.5 | 3.4 | 34.1 | 4.2 | 0.0 | Plaid | Plaid |
| 406 | 48 | Dwyfor Meirionnydd | Liz Saville Roberts | 73,042 | 55.3 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 8.7 | 27.2 | 5.3 | 48.1 | 5.6 | 0.0 | Plaid | Plaid |
| 439 | 15 | Caerfyrddin (Carmarthen) | Ann Davies | 74,003 | 61.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 9.0 | 34.2 | 4.9 | 39.4 | 5.0 | 0.0 | Plaid | Plaid |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.