Wales: Majority Sorted Seats

Wales Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 33.6%8 26.6%61+513
LAB 48.9%28 29.6%06-622
LIB 4.5%0 15.1%20+22
Brexit 0.0%0 11.9%00+00
Green 0.3%0 2.0%00+00
Plaid 10.4%4 13.5%01-13
UKIP 2.0%0 0.6%00+00
Other 0.2%0 0.7%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Rhondda, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Montgomeryshire, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Monmouth (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Alyn and Deeside (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Wales seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
47500Rhondda Chris Bryant50,51365.213.738.610.511.
59488Aberavon Stephen Kinnock49,89166.718.739.811.913.
65482Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Gerald Jones55,46360.518.538.413.513.
75472Blaenau Gwent Nick Smith51,22763.216.635.410.
79468Cardiff Central Jo Stevens59,28868.116.935.
91456Cynon Valley Ann Clwyd51,33262.019.236.311.913.
105442Ogmore Chris Elmore56,66165.722.137.112.313.
108439Swansea East Carolyn Harris58,52160.122.637.
123424Cardiff South and Penarth Stephen Doughty76,49966.324.236.514.010.22.611.
125422Neath Christina Rees55,85968.521.833.712.412.
130417Islwyn Chris Evans56,25664.223.534.912.
132415Cardiff West Kevin Brennan67,22169.423.834.714.49.32.314.
136410Arfon Hywel Williams41,36768.215.726.312.
137410Caerphilly Wayne David64,38164.122.032.612.413.02.416.
140407Llanelli Nia Griffith59,43467.921.732.
142405Swansea West Geraint Davies56,89265.524.
143404Pontypridd Owen Smith60,56665.922.332.217.411.
153394Torfaen Nick Thomas-Symonds61,83962.125.533.712.415.
175372Newport East Jessica Morden57,23364.327.333.313.514.
196351Ynys Mon Albert Owen52,44871.223.726.311.111.21.624.
202345Newport West Paul Flynn64,39967.530.031.713.712.
212335Bridgend Madeleine Moon62,18569.630.230.414.512.
213334Clwyd South Susan Elan Jones54,34169.030.330.412.314.
218329Alyn and Deeside Mark Tami63,04171.031.331.
226321Cardiff North Anna McMorrin67,22177.431.430.417.
227320Delyn David Hanson54,11672.831.930.813.712.
231316Vale of Clwyd Chris Ruane56,89068.032.730.512.812.
238309Gower Tonia Antoniazzi62,16373.332.329.615.311.
239307Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Jonathan Edwards55,97673.322.719.711.110.81.732.
243304Wrexham Ian Lucas50,42269.632.329.113.612.
247299Ceredigion Ben Lake52,88975.216.712.933.08.52.325.
269278Preseli Pembrokeshire Stephen Crabb58,54072.133.626.812.913.
270277Aberconwy Guto Bebb45,25171.
276270Dwyfor Meirionnydd Liz Roberts44,69967.923.615.811.910.31.735.
277270Vale of Glamorgan Alun Cairns73,95872.634.526.614.312.
297250Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Simon Hart58,54872.134.924.412.413.61.611.
299248Clwyd West David Jones58,26369.835.224.413.412.21.512.
331216Monmouth David Davies64,90976.638.722.
385161Brecon and Radnorshire Chris Davies56,01073.833.711.734.
404143Montgomeryshire Glyn Davies50,75568.735.311.629.312.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.