Wales: Majority Sorted Seats

Wales Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 36.1%14 34.3%04-410
LAB 40.9%22 44.9%40+426
LIB 6.0%0 3.8%00+00
Brexit 5.4%0 3.3%00+00
Green 1.0%0 1.9%00+00
Plaid 9.9%4 9.9%00+04
Other 0.6%0 1.9%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Cardiff Central, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Brecon and Radnorshire, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Montgomeryshire (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Wrexham (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Wales seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Brexit
%
Green
%
Plaid
%
OTH
%
2019
Win
Pred
Win
40524Cardiff Central Jo Stevens64,03765.318.366.89.21.51.20.02.9LABLAB
53511Rhondda Chris Bryant50,26259.014.359.11.37.62.513.71.5LABLAB
66498Aberavon Stephen Kinnock50,75062.318.858.42.16.02.48.63.8LABLAB
67497Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Gerald Jones56,32257.317.857.42.16.81.17.67.3LABLAB
69495Blaenau Gwent Nick Smith50,73959.617.356.52.612.72.95.72.3LABLAB
76488Cynon Valley Beth Winter51,13459.120.455.91.96.11.08.56.2LABLAB
92472Cardiff South and Penarth Stephen Doughty78,83764.227.157.83.62.43.24.71.2LABLAB
97467Swansea East Carolyn Harris58,45057.426.356.32.65.12.75.71.4LABLAB
100464Cardiff West Kevin Brennan68,50867.426.155.43.62.13.28.41.1LABLAB
101463Swansea West Geraint Davies57,07862.827.156.35.13.41.05.51.5LABLAB
102462Ogmore Chris Elmore57,58161.525.854.12.55.12.78.21.4LABLAB
116447Arfon Hywel Williams42,21568.913.837.50.02.40.445.20.6PlaidPlaid
119445Islwyn Chris Evans55,42362.027.050.52.38.53.26.71.8LABLAB
121443Caerphilly Wayne David63,16663.526.049.00.06.80.916.01.3LABLAB
127437Neath Christina Rees56,41965.126.147.82.55.23.012.23.2LABLAB
135429Pontypridd Alex Davies-Jones60,32764.727.647.60.04.50.712.86.8LABLAB
143421Cardiff North Anna McMorrin68,43877.034.453.04.21.52.33.01.5LABLAB
146418Torfaen Nick Thomas-Symonds62,33059.629.948.23.09.43.63.92.0LABLAB
152412Llanelli Nia Griffith60,51863.228.145.80.05.70.818.41.1LABLAB
183381Newport East Jessica Morden58,55462.037.148.93.64.12.62.41.4LABLAB
191373Gower Tonia Antoniazzi61,76272.039.548.73.11.90.75.11.0LABLAB
197367Newport West Ruth Jones66,65765.239.847.43.62.42.92.71.2LABLAB
200364Alyn and Deeside Mark Tami62,78968.540.146.83.63.80.93.41.4LABLAB
214350Delyn Rob Roberts54,56070.341.845.53.73.10.93.71.3CONLAB
218346Bridgend Jamie Wallis63,30366.741.244.03.42.62.74.81.2CONLAB
218345Ceredigion Ben Lake56,38671.120.322.710.73.13.237.92.2PlaidPlaid
222342Clwyd South Simon Baynes53,91967.342.844.52.52.40.75.91.0CONLAB
228336Vale of Clwyd James Davies56,64965.744.644.72.42.40.74.21.0CONLAB
232332Ynys Mon Virginia Crosbie51,92570.433.632.80.03.60.628.50.9CONCON
235329Wrexham Sarah Atherton49,73767.443.542.22.62.22.06.41.0CONCON
239325Aberconwy Robin Millar44,69971.344.342.33.50.00.68.50.8CONCON
249315Vale of Glamorgan Alun Cairns76,50871.648.044.50.00.06.20.01.3CONCON
275289Preseli Pembrokeshire Stephen Crabb59,60671.248.640.82.80.00.56.50.7CONCON
278285Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Jonathan Edwards57,41971.432.623.70.03.40.638.90.8PlaidPlaid
297267Clwyd West David Jones57,71469.748.936.63.40.00.69.70.8CONCON
305259Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Simon Hart59,15871.250.836.62.70.00.58.60.7CONCON
307257Monmouth David Davies67,09874.850.335.96.00.03.52.42.0CONCON
307256Dwyfor Meirionnydd Liz Saville Roberts44,36267.530.616.10.03.60.648.30.9PlaidPlaid
452112Montgomeryshire Craig Williams48,99769.856.722.615.30.01.40.04.1CONCON
47094Brecon and Radnorshire Fay Jones55,49074.551.315.828.10.01.40.03.4CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.