Wales: Majority Sorted Seats

Wales Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 33.6%8 29.1%00+08
LAB 48.9%28 42.7%00+028
LIB 4.5%0 6.8%10+11
UKIP 2.0%0 5.4%00+00
Green 0.3%0 2.5%00+00
Plaid 10.4%4 10.4%01-13
Minor 0.2%0 3.1%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Rhondda, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Montgomeryshire, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Monmouth (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (prediction: Plaid).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Wales seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
Plaid
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
30541Rhondda Chris Bryant50,51365.27.857.82.75.41.722.30.02.3LABLAB
35536Aberavon Stephen Kinnock49,89166.713.761.84.07.32.18.30.02.8LABLAB
44527Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Gerald Jones55,46360.514.060.54.77.72.18.20.02.8LABLAB
60511Cardiff Central Jo Stevens59,28868.115.356.115.74.33.22.50.02.9LABLAB
62509Blaenau Gwent Nick Smith51,22763.211.451.73.06.12.021.22.12.6LABLAB
64507Cynon Valley Ann Clwyd51,33262.015.054.74.17.42.213.80.02.9LABLAB
82489Swansea East Carolyn Harris58,52160.121.557.24.16.43.24.80.02.9LABLAB
83488Ogmore Chris Elmore56,66165.720.656.23.96.72.27.50.02.9LABLAB
98473Neath Christina Rees55,85968.519.250.44.27.12.213.90.02.9LABLAB
104467Islwyn Chris Evans56,25664.222.752.64.27.92.27.60.02.9LABLAB
118453Llanelli Nia Griffith59,43467.919.147.23.76.72.218.20.02.9LABLAB
124447Cardiff South and Penarth Stephen Doughty76,49966.325.753.25.15.33.24.30.03.2LABLAB
125446Caerphilly Wayne David64,38164.120.748.24.16.53.314.40.02.9LABLAB
129442Pontypridd Owen Smith60,56665.922.249.17.26.12.210.30.02.9LABLAB
132439Swansea West Geraint Davies56,89265.526.853.55.73.43.44.10.03.1LABLAB
137434Cardiff West Kevin Brennan67,22169.425.250.44.94.92.29.50.02.9LABLAB
141430Torfaen Nick Thomas-Symonds61,83962.126.451.34.57.32.25.40.02.9LABLAB
151419Arfon Hywel Williams41,36768.212.734.24.43.22.040.80.02.7PlaidPlaid
158413Newport East Jessica Morden57,23364.330.250.24.96.62.22.40.03.4LABLAB
190381Ynys Mon Albert Owen52,44871.223.335.63.65.12.227.40.02.9LABLAB
193378Newport West Paul Flynn64,39967.534.846.04.56.03.32.50.02.9LABLAB
201370Alyn and Deeside Mark Tami63,04171.035.945.84.75.92.22.60.02.9LABLAB
202369Clwyd South Susan Elan Jones54,34169.034.644.44.25.62.26.10.02.9LABLAB
206365Bridgend Madeleine Moon62,18569.635.344.44.45.22.24.10.04.4LABLAB
207364Delyn David Hanson54,11672.836.945.94.93.42.23.80.02.9LABLAB
219352Cardiff North Anna McMorrin67,22177.437.643.95.64.52.23.30.02.9LABLAB
225346Gower Tonia Antoniazzi62,16373.338.243.64.34.82.23.70.03.2LABLAB
228343Vale of Clwyd Chris Ruane56,89068.039.543.94.03.42.24.00.02.9LABLAB
231340Wrexham Ian Lucas50,42269.639.142.64.83.42.25.00.02.9LABLAB
237333Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Jonathan Edwards55,97673.321.723.54.55.82.239.30.02.9PlaidPlaid
245325Ceredigion Ben Lake52,88975.214.213.931.24.83.529.20.03.2PlaidLIB
260311Preseli Pembrokeshire Stephen Crabb58,54072.138.836.44.95.42.26.42.93.0CONCON
269302Aberconwy Guto Bebb45,25171.040.136.35.23.42.29.90.02.9CONCON
286285Vale of Glamorgan Alun Cairns73,95872.642.937.14.25.03.04.30.03.5CONCON
302269Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Simon Hart58,54872.142.333.24.65.62.29.30.02.9CONCON
304266Dwyfor Meirionnydd Liz Roberts44,69967.924.614.45.45.42.245.10.02.9PlaidPlaid
305266Clwyd West David Jones58,26369.843.533.35.03.42.29.60.02.9CONCON
339232Monmouth David Davies64,90976.648.630.36.45.04.12.70.02.9CONCON
439132Brecon and Radnorshire Chris Davies56,01073.844.112.231.34.62.13.10.02.7CONCON
47794Montgomeryshire Glyn Davies50,75568.747.310.927.23.03.45.60.02.5CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.