| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 18.2% | 0 | 11.8% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| LAB | 37.0% | 27 | 12.2% | 0 | 27 | -27 | 0 |
| LIB | 6.5% | 1 | 9.4% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| Reform | 16.9% | 0 | 26.1% | 16 | 0 | +16 | 16 |
| Green | 4.7% | 0 | 11.9% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Plaid | 14.8% | 4 | 25.4% | 11 | 0 | +11 | 15 |
| Other | 2.0% | 0 | 3.2% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Cardiff North' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Llanelli', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Llanelli (prediction: Plaid), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Cardiff North (prediction: Plaid).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | Plaid % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 264 | Cardiff North | Anna McMorrin | 71,335 | 66.5 | 15.7 | 18.5 | 11.3 | 15.9 | 16.6 | 19.5 | 0.0 | 2.6 | LAB | Plaid |
| 106 | 222 | Cardiff South and Penarth | Stephen Doughty | 72,613 | 54.0 | 8.9 | 14.1 | 8.2 | 16.8 | 23.7 | 25.8 | 0.0 | 2.5 | LAB | Plaid |
| 123 | 205 | Cardiff East | Jo Stevens | 72,873 | 53.7 | 8.1 | 13.7 | 13.6 | 18.0 | 21.5 | 22.4 | 0.0 | 2.8 | LAB | Plaid |
| 135 | 193 | Cardiff West | Alex Barros-Curtis | 75,473 | 59.3 | 9.8 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 19.2 | 15.3 | 31.8 | 0.0 | 3.3 | LAB | Plaid |
| 162 | 167 | Gower | Tonia Antoniazzi | 76,123 | 62.0 | 13.2 | 16.5 | 9.4 | 25.0 | 12.7 | 19.9 | 0.0 | 3.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 171 | 158 | Monmouthshire | Catherine Fookes | 74,823 | 68.0 | 24.5 | 16.4 | 10.9 | 25.7 | 9.5 | 10.7 | 0.0 | 2.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 207 | 122 | Vale of Glamorgan | Kanishka Narayan | 74,374 | 61.6 | 18.4 | 12.3 | 11.2 | 25.1 | 12.5 | 18.5 | 0.0 | 2.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 209 | 120 | Wrexham | Andrew Steven Ranger | 70,269 | 57.5 | 16.2 | 13.1 | 10.1 | 26.0 | 10.7 | 20.9 | 0.0 | 3.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 215 | 113 | Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe | David Chadwick | 73,114 | 63.7 | 16.7 | 8.8 | 24.9 | 22.8 | 8.3 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | LIB | LIB |
| 239 | 90 | Clwyd East | Becky Gittins | 76,637 | 62.4 | 18.3 | 12.0 | 11.3 | 27.9 | 10.3 | 18.4 | 0.0 | 1.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 244 | 84 | Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney | Nick Smith | 70,153 | 42.7 | 5.7 | 9.1 | 7.2 | 25.9 | 14.2 | 32.6 | 1.4 | 3.8 | LAB | Plaid |
| 247 | 82 | Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr | Steve Witherden | 74,039 | 58.4 | 11.8 | 11.3 | 15.2 | 28.6 | 10.1 | 19.7 | 0.0 | 3.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 259 | 70 | Clwyd North | Gill German | 75,027 | 55.5 | 22.9 | 11.5 | 7.8 | 30.8 | 8.0 | 16.5 | 0.0 | 2.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 259 | 69 | Ceredigion Preseli | Ben Lake | 75,690 | 61.2 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 11.6 | 21.8 | 8.9 | 47.9 | 3.7 | 0.0 | Plaid | Plaid |
| 262 | 67 | Pembrokeshire Mid and South | Henry Tufnell | 79,031 | 59.0 | 23.3 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 31.2 | 7.5 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 2.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 263 | 66 | Alyn and Deeside | Mark Tami | 75,790 | 57.3 | 12.0 | 13.1 | 8.7 | 32.9 | 10.6 | 19.1 | 0.0 | 3.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 265 | 63 | Swansea West | Torsten Bell | 74,236 | 48.0 | 5.5 | 7.1 | 10.8 | 27.4 | 16.5 | 29.5 | 0.0 | 3.3 | LAB | Plaid |
| 269 | 60 | Newport East | Jessica Morden | 76,845 | 50.1 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 8.3 | 30.8 | 13.7 | 24.7 | 0.0 | 4.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 280 | 48 | Dwyfor Meirionnydd | Liz Saville Roberts | 73,042 | 55.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 5.8 | 25.6 | 8.0 | 55.2 | 0.0 | 2.2 | Plaid | Plaid |
| 286 | 43 | Newport West and Islwyn | Ruth Jones | 75,781 | 55.4 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 32.6 | 12.1 | 29.6 | 0.0 | 4.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 297 | 31 | Bangor Aberconwy | Claire Hughes | 69,023 | 60.4 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 9.1 | 30.5 | 11.0 | 39.0 | 0.0 | 2.6 | LAB | Plaid |
| 300 | 29 | Bridgend | Chris Elmore | 73,152 | 56.6 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 34.6 | 11.6 | 30.8 | 0.0 | 4.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 304 | 24 | Caerfyrddin (Carmarthen) | Ann Davies | 74,003 | 61.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 6.6 | 31.7 | 8.2 | 45.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | Plaid | Plaid |
| 305 | 23 | Pontypridd | Alex Davies-Jones | 75,951 | 51.8 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 7.1 | 33.0 | 13.4 | 37.1 | 0.0 | 4.4 | LAB | Plaid |
| 310 | 19 | Torfaen | Nick Thomas-Symonds | 71,738 | 49.8 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 37.0 | 11.0 | 29.6 | 0.0 | 3.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 310 | 18 | Caerphilly | Chris Evans | 72,643 | 52.6 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 7.1 | 33.9 | 11.7 | 39.9 | 0.0 | 3.1 | LAB | Plaid |
| 310 | 18 | Ynys Mon (Anglesey) | Llinos Medi | 53,141 | 61.4 | 5.4 | 1.1 | 7.8 | 33.2 | 8.2 | 42.8 | 0.0 | 1.4 | Plaid | Plaid |
| 316 | 13 | Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare | Gerald Jones | 74,460 | 47.3 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 6.5 | 36.2 | 11.7 | 35.9 | 3.1 | 1.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 316 | 12 | Rhondda and Ogmore | Chris Bryant | 74,493 | 48.1 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 5.8 | 36.5 | 12.3 | 37.6 | 0.0 | 3.4 | LAB | Plaid |
| 317 | 12 | Aberafan Maesteg | Stephen Kinnock | 72,580 | 49.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 6.6 | 36.7 | 11.7 | 36.3 | 0.0 | 3.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 318 | 11 | Neath and Swansea East | Carolyn Harris | 76,291 | 52.6 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 8.2 | 37.6 | 12.4 | 33.8 | 0.0 | 3.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 320 | 8 | Llanelli | Nia Griffith | 71,536 | 57.0 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 6.3 | 37.8 | 8.9 | 39.3 | 0.0 | 3.3 | LAB | Plaid |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.