Wales: Majority Sorted Seats

Wales Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 36.1%14 34.3%04-410
LAB 40.9%22 44.9%40+426
LIB 6.0%0 3.8%00+00
Brexit 5.4%0 3.3%00+00
Green 1.0%0 1.9%00+00
Plaid 9.9%4 9.9%00+04
Other 0.6%0 1.9%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Cardiff Central, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Brecon and Radnorshire, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Montgomeryshire (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Wrexham (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Wales seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
40524Cardiff Central Jo Stevens64,03765.318.366.
53511Rhondda Chris Bryant50,26259.014.359.
66498Aberavon Stephen Kinnock50,75062.318.858.
67497Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Gerald Jones56,32257.317.857.
69495Blaenau Gwent Nick Smith50,73959.617.356.52.612.
76488Cynon Valley Beth Winter51,13459.120.455.
92472Cardiff South and Penarth Stephen Doughty78,83764.
97467Swansea East Carolyn Harris58,45057.426.356.
100464Cardiff West Kevin Brennan68,50867.426.
101463Swansea West Geraint Davies57,07862.827.
102462Ogmore Chris Elmore57,58161.525.854.
116447Arfon Hywel Williams42,21568.913.837.
119445Islwyn Chris Evans55,42362.
121443Caerphilly Wayne David63,16663.526.
127437Neath Christina Rees56,41965.
135429Pontypridd Alex Davies-Jones60,32764.727.647.
143421Cardiff North Anna McMorrin68,43877.034.453.
146418Torfaen Nick Thomas-Symonds62,33059.629.948.
152412Llanelli Nia Griffith60,51863.
183381Newport East Jessica Morden58,55462.
191373Gower Tonia Antoniazzi61,76272.039.548.
197367Newport West Ruth Jones66,65765.239.847.
200364Alyn and Deeside Mark Tami62,78968.540.
214350Delyn Rob Roberts54,56070.341.845.
218346Bridgend Jamie Wallis63,30366.741.
218345Ceredigion Ben Lake56,38671.120.322.710.
222342Clwyd South Simon Baynes53,91967.342.844.
228336Vale of Clwyd James Davies56,64965.744.644.
232332Ynys Mon Virginia Crosbie51,92570.433.632.
235329Wrexham Sarah Atherton49,73767.443.542.
239325Aberconwy Robin Millar44,69971.344.342.
249315Vale of Glamorgan Alun Cairns76,50871.648.
275289Preseli Pembrokeshire Stephen Crabb59,60671.248.640.
278285Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Jonathan Edwards57,41971.432.623.
297267Clwyd West David Jones57,71469.748.936.
305259Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Simon Hart59,15871.250.836.
307257Monmouth David Davies67,09874.850.335.
307256Dwyfor Meirionnydd Liz Saville Roberts44,36267.530.616.
452112Montgomeryshire Craig Williams48,99769.856.722.615.
47094Brecon and Radnorshire Fay Jones55,49074.551.315.828.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.