Wales: Majority Sorted Seats

Wales Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 36.1%14 21.2%012-122
LAB 40.9%22 47.1%120+1234
LIB 6.0%0 3.5%00+00
Reform 5.4%0 10.0%00+00
Green 1.0%0 3.6%00+00
Plaid 9.9%4 13.8%00+04
Other 0.6%0 0.7%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Cardiff Central, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Montgomeryshire, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Newport West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Wales seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
77503Cardiff Central Jo Stevens64,03765.313.862.
82498Rhondda Chris Bryant50,26259.010.358.
95485Aberavon Stephen Kinnock50,75062.312.257.72.510.83.911.91.0LABLAB
108472Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Gerald Jones56,32257.311.955.72.911.93.612.81.2LABLAB
110470Blaenau Gwent Nick Smith50,73959.612.055.52.713.
117463Cynon Valley Beth Winter51,13459.112.955.72.510.
133447Cardiff South and Penarth Stephen Doughty78,83764.
135445Swansea East Carolyn Harris58,45057.414.955.92.910.
137443Ogmore Chris Elmore57,58161.514.955.62.810.
153427Cardiff West Kevin Brennan68,50867.418.356.
155425Caerphilly Wayne David63,16663.516.
170410Islwyn Chris Evans55,42362.017.354.32.411.
174406Swansea West Geraint Davies57,07862.818.
203377Pontypridd Alex Davies-Jones60,32764.719.351.
207373Neath Christina Rees56,41965.
211369Torfaen Nick Thomas-Symonds62,33059.619.150.52.913.
213367Llanelli Nia Griffith60,51863.216.947.
235345Cardiff North Anna McMorrin68,43877.024.753.
242338Newport East Jessica Morden58,55462.023.450.33.411.
254326Newport West Ruth Jones66,65765.
255324Arfon Hywel Williams42,21568.
260320Alyn and Deeside Mark Tami62,78968.522.947.73.312.
279301Clwyd South Simon Baynes53,91967.323.546.
280300Gower Tonia Antoniazzi61,76272.025.748.
287293Bridgend Jamie Wallis63,30366.723.645.
290290Delyn Rob Roberts54,56070.324.546.23.811.
297283Vale of Clwyd James Davies56,64965.725.346.
298282Ynys Mon Virginia Crosbie51,92570.419.
300280Wrexham Sarah Atherton49,73767.425.345.72.710.22.912.30.9CONLAB
302278Aberconwy Robin Millar44,69971.326.546.
310270Vale of Glamorgan Alun Cairns76,50871.630.
321259Preseli Pembrokeshire Stephen Crabb59,60671.
329251Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Simon Hart59,15871.
349230Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Jonathan Edwards57,41971.419.631.
363217Clwyd West David Jones57,71469.729.739.
365214Ceredigion Ben Lake56,38671.
394185Dwyfor Meirionnydd Liz Saville Roberts44,36267.516.921.
397183Monmouth David Davies67,09874.835.539.
53050Brecon and Radnorshire Fay Jones55,49074.535.425.919.
54337Montgomeryshire Craig Williams48,99769.837.426.713.612.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.