Wales: Majority Sorted Seats

Wales Prediction

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	36.1%	14	22.2%	0	12	-12	2
LAB	40.9%	22	46.5%	11	0	+11	33
LIB	6.0%	0	5.6%	0	0	+0	0
Reform	5.4%	0	3.3%	0	0	+0	0
Green	1.0%	0	2.5%	0	0	+0	0
Plaid	9.9%	4	18.1%	1	0	+1	5
Other	0.6%	0	1.8%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Cardiff Central, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Brecon and Radnorshire, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Montgomeryshire (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Aberconwy (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Wales seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2019	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	Plaid %	OTH %	2019 Win	Pred Win
28	527	Cardiff Central	Jo Stevens	64,037	65.3	11.0	61.5	10.4	1.8	3.0	11.1	1.1	LAB	LAB
60	495	Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney	Gerald Jones	56,322	57.3	13.2	55.8	4.7	4.4	2.5	16.5	2.8	LAB	LAB
61	494	Rhondda	Chris Bryant	50,262	59.0	10.6	53.0	3.5	4.0	2.8	24.1	2.0	LAB	LAB
65	490	Aberavon	Stephen Kinnock	50,750	62.3	13.8	55.5	4.2	4.0	2.8	17.3	2.3	LAB	LAB
70	485	Blaenau Gwent	Nick Smith	50,739	59.6	14.0	54.4	4.7	6.1	2.9	15.4	2.5	LAB	LAB
76	479	Cynon Valley	Beth Winter	51,134	59.1	14.4	53.6	4.1	4.1	2.4	18.8	2.6	LAB	LAB
81	474	Cardiff South and Penarth	Stephen Doughty	78,837	64.2	17.1	54.9	5.4	2.8	3.5	14.9	1.4	LAB	LAB
85	470	Swansea West	Geraint Davies	57,078	62.8	17.1	54.8	6.7	3.0	2.6	14.3	1.4	LAB	LAB
87	468	Swansea East	Carolyn Harris	58,450	57.4	17.2	54.6	4.7	3.9	3.0	14.9	1.8	LAB	LAB
90	465	Cardiff West	Kevin Brennan	68,508	67.4	16.5	53.0	5.3	2.4	3.4	18.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
92	463	Ogmore	Chris Elmore	57,581	61.5	17.1	53.0	4.5	3.7	2.9	16.8	1.9	LAB	LAB
107	448	Islwyn	Chris Evans	55,423	62.0	18.6	50.8	4.6	5.0	3.0	15.9	2.2	LAB	LAB
109	446	Cardiff North	Anna McMorrin	68,438	77.0	21.9	53.9	5.8	2.4	3.0	11.6	1.5	LAB	LAB
113	442	Pontypridd	Alex Davies-Jones	60,327	64.7	17.9	49.4	3.7	3.6	2.4	20.3	2.6	LAB	LAB
117	438	Caerphilly	Wayne David	63,166	63.5	17.2	47.7	3.1	4.2	2.3	23.5	2.0	LAB	LAB
122	433	Neath	Christina Rees	56,419	65.1	17.8	47.8	4.4	3.8	2.8	21.2	2.2	LAB	LAB
127	428	Torfaen	Nick Thomas-Symonds	62,330	59.6	20.8	50.4	5.3	5.4	3.1	12.6	2.3	LAB	LAB
157	398	Newport East	Jessica Morden	58,554	62.0	24.0	50.3	5.7	4.0	2.8	11.4	1.7	LAB	LAB
167	388	Llanelli	Nia Griffith	60,518	63.2	18.5	43.8	2.8	3.9	2.0	27.1	1.9	LAB	LAB
173	382	Newport West	Ruth Jones	66,657	65.2	25.2	49.8	5.5	3.3	3.0	11.6	1.6	LAB	LAB
175	380	Gower	Tonia Antoniazzi	61,762	72.0	25.5	49.9	5.1	2.8	2.2	12.9	1.7	LAB	LAB
177	377	Arfon	Hywel Williams	42,215	68.9	8.6	32.3	2.0	1.7	1.6	52.6	1.2	Plaid	Plaid
181	374	Alyn and Deeside	Mark Tami	62,789	68.5	26.2	49.5	5.3	3.9	2.2	11.1	1.9	LAB	LAB
192	363	Bridgend	Jamie Wallis	63,303	66.7	25.9	47.9	5.5	3.3	2.9	12.8	1.8	CON	LAB
197	358	Delyn	Rob Roberts	54,560	70.3	27.7	48.1	5.4	3.6	2.1	11.4	1.8	CON	LAB
200	355	Clwyd South	Simon Baynes	53,919	67.3	27.3	47.2	4.6	3.5	2.1	13.6	1.8	CON	LAB
206	349	Vale of Clwyd	James Davies	56,649	65.7	28.7	47.7	4.5	3.4	2.0	11.9	1.7	CON	LAB
210	345	Vale of Glamorgan	Alun Cairns	76,508	71.6	30.1	48.9	3.4	2.6	4.1	9.1	1.7	CON	LAB
215	340	Wrexham	Sarah Atherton	49,737	67.4	27.8	46.0	4.9	3.4	2.5	13.7	1.7	CON	LAB
223	332	Aberconwy	Robin Millar	44,699	71.3	28.1	44.8	5.0	2.4	2.0	16.1	1.5	CON	LAB
235	319	Ceredigion	Ben Lake	56,386	71.1	13.2	27.3	10.8	2.3	2.3	42.4	1.6	Plaid	Plaid
242	313	Preseli Pembrokeshire	Stephen Crabb	59,606	71.2	30.9	44.5	4.6	2.7	2.0	13.7	1.6	CON	LAB
246	308	Ynys Mon	Virginia Crosbie	51,925	70.4	21.6	34.3	2.5	3.1	1.6	35.1	1.7	CON	Plaid
266	289	Monmouth	David Davies	67,098	74.8	32.6	42.9	7.2	2.6	3.0	9.9	1.8	CON	LAB
270	285	Clwyd West	David Jones	57,714	69.7	31.2	41.1	4.9	2.7	1.9	16.7	1.6	CON	LAB
281	274	Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South	Simon Hart	59,158	71.2	32.5	41.3	4.4	2.8	1.9	15.5	1.6	CON	LAB
301	253	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Jonathan Edwards	57,419	71.4	20.3	26.2	2.2	2.9	1.4	45.3	1.6	Plaid	Plaid
319	235	Dwyfor Meirionnydd	Liz Saville Roberts	44,362	67.5	18.4	20.4	2.1	2.7	1.3	53.7	1.5	Plaid	Plaid
340	215	Montgomeryshire	Craig Williams	48,997	69.8	36.0	33.7	15.4	3.2	2.0	7.8	2.0	CON	CON
348	207	Brecon and Radnorshire	Fay Jones	55,490	74.5	33.1	30.2	23.2	2.8	2.0	6.9	1.8	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.