Wales: Majority Sorted Seats

Wales Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 36.1%14 22.2%012-122
LAB 40.9%22 46.5%110+1133
LIB 6.0%0 5.6%00+00
Reform 5.4%0 3.3%00+00
Green 1.0%0 2.5%00+00
Plaid 9.9%4 18.1%10+15
Other 0.6%0 1.8%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Cardiff Central, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Brecon and Radnorshire, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Montgomeryshire (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Aberconwy (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Wales seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
Plaid
%
OTH
%
2019
Win
Pred
Win
28527Cardiff Central Jo Stevens64,03765.311.061.510.41.83.011.11.1LABLAB
60495Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Gerald Jones56,32257.313.255.84.74.42.516.52.8LABLAB
61494Rhondda Chris Bryant50,26259.010.653.03.54.02.824.12.0LABLAB
65490Aberavon Stephen Kinnock50,75062.313.855.54.24.02.817.32.3LABLAB
70485Blaenau Gwent Nick Smith50,73959.614.054.44.76.12.915.42.5LABLAB
76479Cynon Valley Beth Winter51,13459.114.453.64.14.12.418.82.6LABLAB
81474Cardiff South and Penarth Stephen Doughty78,83764.217.154.95.42.83.514.91.4LABLAB
85470Swansea West Geraint Davies57,07862.817.154.86.73.02.614.31.4LABLAB
87468Swansea East Carolyn Harris58,45057.417.254.64.73.93.014.91.8LABLAB
90465Cardiff West Kevin Brennan68,50867.416.553.05.32.43.418.01.4LABLAB
92463Ogmore Chris Elmore57,58161.517.153.04.53.72.916.81.9LABLAB
107448Islwyn Chris Evans55,42362.018.650.84.65.03.015.92.2LABLAB
109446Cardiff North Anna McMorrin68,43877.021.953.95.82.43.011.61.5LABLAB
113442Pontypridd Alex Davies-Jones60,32764.717.949.43.73.62.420.32.6LABLAB
117438Caerphilly Wayne David63,16663.517.247.73.14.22.323.52.0LABLAB
122433Neath Christina Rees56,41965.117.847.84.43.82.821.22.2LABLAB
127428Torfaen Nick Thomas-Symonds62,33059.620.850.45.35.43.112.62.3LABLAB
157398Newport East Jessica Morden58,55462.024.050.35.74.02.811.41.7LABLAB
167388Llanelli Nia Griffith60,51863.218.543.82.83.92.027.11.9LABLAB
173382Newport West Ruth Jones66,65765.225.249.85.53.33.011.61.6LABLAB
175380Gower Tonia Antoniazzi61,76272.025.549.95.12.82.212.91.7LABLAB
177377Arfon Hywel Williams42,21568.98.632.32.01.71.652.61.2PlaidPlaid
181374Alyn and Deeside Mark Tami62,78968.526.249.55.33.92.211.11.9LABLAB
192363Bridgend Jamie Wallis63,30366.725.947.95.53.32.912.81.8CONLAB
197358Delyn Rob Roberts54,56070.327.748.15.43.62.111.41.8CONLAB
200355Clwyd South Simon Baynes53,91967.327.347.24.63.52.113.61.8CONLAB
206349Vale of Clwyd James Davies56,64965.728.747.74.53.42.011.91.7CONLAB
210345Vale of Glamorgan Alun Cairns76,50871.630.148.93.42.64.19.11.7CONLAB
215340Wrexham Sarah Atherton49,73767.427.846.04.93.42.513.71.7CONLAB
223332Aberconwy Robin Millar44,69971.328.144.85.02.42.016.11.5CONLAB
235319Ceredigion Ben Lake56,38671.113.227.310.82.32.342.41.6PlaidPlaid
242313Preseli Pembrokeshire Stephen Crabb59,60671.230.944.54.62.72.013.71.6CONLAB
246308Ynys Mon Virginia Crosbie51,92570.421.634.32.53.11.635.11.7CONPlaid
266289Monmouth David Davies67,09874.832.642.97.22.63.09.91.8CONLAB
270285Clwyd West David Jones57,71469.731.241.14.92.71.916.71.6CONLAB
281274Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Simon Hart59,15871.232.541.34.42.81.915.51.6CONLAB
301253Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Jonathan Edwards57,41971.420.326.22.22.91.445.31.6PlaidPlaid
319235Dwyfor Meirionnydd Liz Saville Roberts44,36267.518.420.42.12.71.353.71.5PlaidPlaid
340215Montgomeryshire Craig Williams48,99769.836.033.715.43.22.07.82.0CONCON
348207Brecon and Radnorshire Fay Jones55,49074.533.130.223.22.82.06.91.8CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.