Wales: Majority Sorted Seats

Wales Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 33.6%8 15.7%08-80
LAB 48.9%28 26.3%010-1018
LIB 4.5%0 12.7%20+22
Brexit 0.0%0 26.2%170+1717
Green 0.3%0 6.0%00+00
Plaid 10.4%4 11.1%01-13
UKIP 2.0%0 0.9%00+00
Other 0.2%0 1.1%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Rhondda, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Montgomeryshire, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Montgomeryshire (prediction: Brexit), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Ogmore (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Wales seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Brexit
%
Green
%
Plaid
%
UKIP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
57396Rhondda Chris Bryant50,51365.26.034.88.724.75.718.11.00.01.0LABLAB
69384Aberavon Stephen Kinnock49,89166.78.735.59.827.85.810.21.00.01.1LABLAB
78375Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Gerald Jones55,46360.58.834.211.227.46.010.31.00.01.1LABLAB
90363Blaenau Gwent Nick Smith51,22763.27.531.18.228.25.617.31.00.01.0LABLAB
97356Cardiff Central Jo Stevens59,28868.111.634.626.510.68.26.70.80.01.0LABLAB
102351Cynon Valley Ann Clwyd51,33262.09.532.19.827.16.113.31.00.01.1LABLAB
113340Swansea East Carolyn Harris58,52160.111.833.29.928.36.18.61.00.01.1LABLAB
116337Ogmore Chris Elmore56,66165.711.532.69.828.06.010.01.00.01.1LABLAB
128325Cardiff South and Penarth Stephen Doughty76,49966.315.635.012.619.57.08.40.90.01.0LABLAB
131322Islwyn Chris Evans56,25664.212.030.59.630.06.09.81.00.01.1LABLAB
132321Neath Christina Rees55,85968.511.229.710.127.66.013.31.00.01.1LABLAB
141312Cardiff West Kevin Brennan67,22169.415.432.612.718.86.711.90.90.01.1LABLAB
141311Llanelli Nia Griffith59,43467.911.128.29.128.25.715.61.00.01.1LABBrexit
149304Swansea West Geraint Davies56,89265.515.932.615.119.37.47.80.90.01.1LABLAB
150303Caerphilly Wayne David64,38164.111.628.310.027.96.213.91.00.01.1LABLAB
155297Torfaen Nick Thomas-Symonds61,83962.113.329.39.930.96.18.51.00.01.1LABBrexit
158295Pontypridd Owen Smith60,56665.912.728.414.823.96.511.70.90.01.1LABLAB
162291Newport East Jessica Morden57,23364.315.730.811.327.46.16.61.00.01.1LABLAB
174278Arfon Hywel Williams41,36768.29.523.512.017.15.630.40.90.01.0PlaidPlaid
196257Newport West Paul Flynn64,39967.518.729.111.325.46.76.81.00.01.1LABLAB
204248Ynys Mon Albert Owen52,44871.213.422.89.326.15.421.00.90.01.1LABBrexit
204248Alyn and Deeside Mark Tami63,04171.017.727.010.430.55.96.51.00.01.1LABBrexit
204248Clwyd South Susan Elan Jones54,34169.017.026.39.630.65.88.61.00.01.1LABBrexit
205247Delyn David Hanson54,11672.818.327.010.829.25.67.10.90.01.1LABBrexit
207245Bridgend Madeleine Moon62,18569.618.226.511.427.66.27.80.90.01.2LABBrexit
212240Vale of Clwyd Chris Ruane56,89068.019.827.09.828.55.67.30.90.01.1LABBrexit
216236Wrexham Ian Lucas50,42269.619.225.410.828.85.78.00.90.01.1LABBrexit
218235Cardiff North Anna McMorrin67,22177.421.927.914.519.56.57.60.80.01.2LABLAB
219233Gower Tonia Antoniazzi62,16373.320.226.012.126.16.17.50.90.01.2LABBrexit
234218Preseli Pembrokeshire Stephen Crabb58,54072.119.723.29.930.75.98.50.90.01.1CONBrexit
234218Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Jonathan Edwards55,97673.312.816.29.626.45.527.51.00.01.1PlaidPlaid
245207Aberconwy Guto Bebb45,25171.020.222.811.327.55.610.60.90.01.1CONBrexit
247205Ceredigion Ben Lake52,88975.29.111.032.520.75.619.40.80.00.9PlaidLIB
253199Vale of Glamorgan Alun Cairns73,95872.622.223.110.827.96.37.60.90.01.2CONBrexit
256196Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Simon Hart58,54872.120.920.99.531.05.89.91.00.01.1CONBrexit
257195Clwyd West David Jones58,26369.821.521.110.529.35.410.20.90.01.1CONBrexit
263189Dwyfor Meirionnydd Liz Roberts44,69967.913.912.810.225.45.130.60.90.01.0PlaidPlaid
282170Monmouth David Davies64,90976.625.219.013.027.96.66.30.90.01.2CONBrexit
315137Brecon and Radnorshire Chris Davies56,01073.820.310.030.128.04.75.20.70.01.0CONLIB
322130Montgomeryshire Glyn Davies50,75568.720.59.525.431.44.76.70.80.01.0CONBrexit

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.