Wales: Majority Sorted Seats

Wales Prediction

Party	2017 Votes	2017 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	33.6%	8	21.1%	0	5	-5	3
LAB	48.9%	28	40.4%	5	0	+5	33
LIB	4.5%	0	5.1%	0	0	+0	0
UKIP	2.0%	0	2.4%	0	0	+0	0
Green	0.3%	0	2.9%	0	0	+0	0
Plaid	10.4%	4	14.5%	0	0	+0	4
ChUK	0.0%	0	4.4%	0	0	+0	0
Brexit	0.0%	0	7.8%	0	0	+0	0
Minor	0.2%	0	1.5%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Rhondda, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Montgomeryshire, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Monmouth (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Vale of Clwyd (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Wales seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2017	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	UKIP %	Green %	Plaid %	ChUK %	Brexit %	MIN %	OTH %	2017 Win	Pred Win
43	507	Rhondda	Chris Bryant	50,513	65.2	8.3	47.8	3.3	2.0	3.2	23.7	3.9	6.4	0.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
44	506	Aberavon	Stephen Kinnock	49,891	66.7	12.4	51.2	3.7	2.6	3.2	12.8	4.1	8.5	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
48	502	Cardiff Central	Jo Stevens	59,288	68.1	12.7	50.5	9.7	1.5	3.8	11.0	5.2	4.9	0.0	0.8	LAB	LAB
50	500	Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney	Gerald Jones	55,463	60.5	12.6	49.9	4.1	2.7	3.3	12.8	4.2	8.7	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
61	489	Blaenau Gwent	Nick Smith	51,227	63.2	10.7	45.7	3.2	2.5	3.0	21.6	3.8	8.0	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
71	479	Cynon Valley	Ann Clwyd	51,332	62.0	13.3	46.2	3.8	2.5	3.3	17.1	4.1	8.1	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
73	477	Swansea East	Carolyn Harris	58,521	60.1	16.1	48.6	3.7	2.8	3.2	10.6	4.1	9.2	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
80	470	Ogmore	Chris Elmore	56,661	65.7	16.3	47.7	3.7	2.5	3.1	12.7	4.2	8.1	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
85	465	Cardiff South and Penarth	Stephen Doughty	76,499	66.3	18.0	48.8	4.3	2.2	3.2	10.8	4.2	7.3	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
93	457	Swansea West	Geraint Davies	56,892	65.5	18.6	48.0	4.8	2.1	3.0	11.0	4.4	6.9	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
98	452	Cardiff West	Kevin Brennan	67,221	69.4	18.1	47.1	4.3	1.8	2.8	14.4	4.2	6.1	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
100	450	Neath	Christina Rees	55,859	68.5	15.6	44.4	3.8	2.5	3.1	16.6	4.1	8.3	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
101	449	Islwyn	Chris Evans	56,256	64.2	17.1	45.5	3.8	2.8	3.3	12.2	4.2	9.2	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
114	436	Caerphilly	Wayne David	64,381	64.1	16.0	42.9	3.8	2.6	3.3	16.9	4.2	8.6	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
115	435	Llanelli	Nia Griffith	59,434	67.9	15.5	42.3	3.5	2.5	3.0	19.6	3.9	8.2	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
116	434	Pontypridd	Owen Smith	60,566	65.9	17.2	44.0	5.4	2.1	3.2	14.9	4.5	7.1	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
122	428	Torfaen	Nick Thomas-Symonds	61,839	62.1	18.9	45.2	3.8	3.0	3.0	10.4	4.1	9.7	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
133	417	Newport East	Jessica Morden	57,233	64.3	21.0	45.3	4.0	2.8	3.0	8.9	4.2	9.2	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
134	415	Arfon	Hywel Williams	41,367	68.2	11.1	35.2	4.2	1.2	2.6	36.7	3.7	4.2	0.0	1.0	Plaid	Plaid
171	379	Newport West	Paul Flynn	64,399	67.5	23.7	43.2	4.0	2.7	3.1	8.8	4.3	8.8	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
185	365	Ynys Mon	Albert Owen	52,448	71.2	17.7	35.2	3.5	2.1	2.6	26.7	3.8	6.9	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
186	364	Clwyd South	Susan Elan Jones	54,341	69.0	24.1	41.5	3.7	2.7	2.5	10.8	4.0	8.9	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
193	357	Alyn and Deeside	Mark Tami	63,041	71.0	25.6	42.2	4.0	2.7	2.6	8.4	4.2	8.7	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
195	355	Bridgend	Madeleine Moon	62,185	69.6	24.6	41.1	4.1	2.6	3.1	10.0	4.4	8.6	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
199	351	Delyn	David Hanson	54,116	72.8	26.6	42.8	4.2	2.1	2.1	9.4	4.2	7.2	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
201	349	Cardiff North	Anna McMorrin	67,221	77.4	26.8	42.5	5.0	1.8	2.7	9.6	4.6	6.0	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
213	337	Wrexham	Ian Lucas	50,422	69.6	26.9	40.9	4.1	2.3	2.1	10.2	4.1	7.8	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
214	336	Gower	Tonia Antoniazzi	62,163	73.3	27.1	41.0	4.1	2.2	2.7	9.7	4.4	7.3	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
218	332	Vale of Clwyd	Chris Ruane	56,890	68.0	27.3	40.9	3.9	2.2	2.2	10.4	4.2	7.3	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
245	304	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Jonathan Edwards	55,976	73.3	17.0	27.2	3.8	2.1	2.8	35.1	3.7	7.0	0.0	1.5	Plaid	Plaid
249	301	Preseli Pembrokeshire	Stephen Crabb	58,540	72.1	27.5	37.0	4.1	2.7	2.6	11.3	4.2	8.8	0.0	1.7	CON	LAB
256	294	Aberconwy	Guto Bebb	45,251	71.0	27.8	36.3	4.5	2.0	2.2	14.5	4.3	6.9	0.0	1.5	CON	LAB
259	290	Ceredigion	Ben Lake	52,889	75.2	13.3	21.5	16.5	2.2	3.4	28.4	6.0	7.4	0.0	1.3	Plaid	Plaid
264	286	Vale of Glamorgan	Alun Cairns	73,958	72.6	29.0	36.9	4.0	2.7	2.9	9.7	4.4	8.8	0.0	1.7	CON	LAB
292	258	Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South	Simon Hart	58,548	72.1	28.9	33.8	3.9	2.7	2.5	13.3	4.1	8.9	0.0	1.7	CON	LAB
298	252	Clwyd West	David Jones	58,263	69.8	29.9	34.1	4.3	2.2	2.1	14.3	4.2	7.4	0.0	1.6	CON	LAB
301	248	Dwyfor Meirionnydd	Liz Roberts	44,699	67.9	18.0	21.8	4.3	2.0	2.8	39.1	3.8	6.7	0.0	1.5	Plaid	Plaid
326	224	Monmouth	David Davies	64,909	76.6	33.4	32.4	5.1	2.7	2.9	8.1	4.6	9.0	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
434	116	Brecon and Radnorshire	Chris Davies	56,010	73.8	31.5	20.5	17.3	2.6	2.6	8.4	6.6	8.8	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
472	78	Montgomeryshire	Glyn Davies	50,755	68.7	32.6	19.5	14.7	2.9	2.5	10.2	6.2	9.6	0.0	1.8	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.