Wales: Majority Sorted Seats

Wales Prediction

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	36.1%	14	34.3%	0	4	-4	10
LAB	40.9%	22	44.9%	4	0	+4	26
LIB	6.0%	0	3.8%	0	0	+0	0
Brexit	5.4%	0	3.3%	0	0	+0	0
Green	1.0%	0	1.9%	0	0	+0	0
Plaid	9.9%	4	9.9%	0	0	+0	4
Other	0.6%	0	1.9%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Cardiff Central, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Brecon and Radnorshire, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Montgomeryshire (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Wrexham (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Wales seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2019	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Brexit %	Green %	Plaid %	OTH %	2019 Win	Pred Win
40	524	Cardiff Central	Jo Stevens	64,037	65.3	18.3	66.8	9.2	1.5	1.2	0.0	2.9	LAB	LAB
53	511	Rhondda	Chris Bryant	50,262	59.0	14.3	59.1	1.3	7.6	2.5	13.7	1.5	LAB	LAB
66	498	Aberavon	Stephen Kinnock	50,750	62.3	18.8	58.4	2.1	6.0	2.4	8.6	3.8	LAB	LAB
67	497	Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney	Gerald Jones	56,322	57.3	17.8	57.4	2.1	6.8	1.1	7.6	7.3	LAB	LAB
69	495	Blaenau Gwent	Nick Smith	50,739	59.6	17.3	56.5	2.6	12.7	2.9	5.7	2.3	LAB	LAB
76	488	Cynon Valley	Beth Winter	51,134	59.1	20.4	55.9	1.9	6.1	1.0	8.5	6.2	LAB	LAB
92	472	Cardiff South and Penarth	Stephen Doughty	78,837	64.2	27.1	57.8	3.6	2.4	3.2	4.7	1.2	LAB	LAB
97	467	Swansea East	Carolyn Harris	58,450	57.4	26.3	56.3	2.6	5.1	2.7	5.7	1.4	LAB	LAB
100	464	Cardiff West	Kevin Brennan	68,508	67.4	26.1	55.4	3.6	2.1	3.2	8.4	1.1	LAB	LAB
101	463	Swansea West	Geraint Davies	57,078	62.8	27.1	56.3	5.1	3.4	1.0	5.5	1.5	LAB	LAB
102	462	Ogmore	Chris Elmore	57,581	61.5	25.8	54.1	2.5	5.1	2.7	8.2	1.4	LAB	LAB
116	447	Arfon	Hywel Williams	42,215	68.9	13.8	37.5	0.0	2.4	0.4	45.2	0.6	Plaid	Plaid
119	445	Islwyn	Chris Evans	55,423	62.0	27.0	50.5	2.3	8.5	3.2	6.7	1.8	LAB	LAB
121	443	Caerphilly	Wayne David	63,166	63.5	26.0	49.0	0.0	6.8	0.9	16.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
127	437	Neath	Christina Rees	56,419	65.1	26.1	47.8	2.5	5.2	3.0	12.2	3.2	LAB	LAB
135	429	Pontypridd	Alex Davies-Jones	60,327	64.7	27.6	47.6	0.0	4.5	0.7	12.8	6.8	LAB	LAB
143	421	Cardiff North	Anna McMorrin	68,438	77.0	34.4	53.0	4.2	1.5	2.3	3.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
146	418	Torfaen	Nick Thomas-Symonds	62,330	59.6	29.9	48.2	3.0	9.4	3.6	3.9	2.0	LAB	LAB
152	412	Llanelli	Nia Griffith	60,518	63.2	28.1	45.8	0.0	5.7	0.8	18.4	1.1	LAB	LAB
183	381	Newport East	Jessica Morden	58,554	62.0	37.1	48.9	3.6	4.1	2.6	2.4	1.4	LAB	LAB
191	373	Gower	Tonia Antoniazzi	61,762	72.0	39.5	48.7	3.1	1.9	0.7	5.1	1.0	LAB	LAB
197	367	Newport West	Ruth Jones	66,657	65.2	39.8	47.4	3.6	2.4	2.9	2.7	1.2	LAB	LAB
200	364	Alyn and Deeside	Mark Tami	62,789	68.5	40.1	46.8	3.6	3.8	0.9	3.4	1.4	LAB	LAB
214	350	Delyn	Rob Roberts	54,560	70.3	41.8	45.5	3.7	3.1	0.9	3.7	1.3	CON	LAB
218	346	Bridgend	Jamie Wallis	63,303	66.7	41.2	44.0	3.4	2.6	2.7	4.8	1.2	CON	LAB
218	345	Ceredigion	Ben Lake	56,386	71.1	20.3	22.7	10.7	3.1	3.2	37.9	2.2	Plaid	Plaid
222	342	Clwyd South	Simon Baynes	53,919	67.3	42.8	44.5	2.5	2.4	0.7	5.9	1.0	CON	LAB
228	336	Vale of Clwyd	James Davies	56,649	65.7	44.6	44.7	2.4	2.4	0.7	4.2	1.0	CON	LAB
232	332	Ynys Mon	Virginia Crosbie	51,925	70.4	33.6	32.8	0.0	3.6	0.6	28.5	0.9	CON	CON
235	329	Wrexham	Sarah Atherton	49,737	67.4	43.5	42.2	2.6	2.2	2.0	6.4	1.0	CON	CON
239	325	Aberconwy	Robin Millar	44,699	71.3	44.3	42.3	3.5	0.0	0.6	8.5	0.8	CON	CON
249	315	Vale of Glamorgan	Alun Cairns	76,508	71.6	48.0	44.5	0.0	0.0	6.2	0.0	1.3	CON	CON
275	289	Preseli Pembrokeshire	Stephen Crabb	59,606	71.2	48.6	40.8	2.8	0.0	0.5	6.5	0.7	CON	CON
278	285	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Jonathan Edwards	57,419	71.4	32.6	23.7	0.0	3.4	0.6	38.9	0.8	Plaid	Plaid
297	267	Clwyd West	David Jones	57,714	69.7	48.9	36.6	3.4	0.0	0.6	9.7	0.8	CON	CON
305	259	Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South	Simon Hart	59,158	71.2	50.8	36.6	2.7	0.0	0.5	8.6	0.7	CON	CON
307	257	Monmouth	David Davies	67,098	74.8	50.3	35.9	6.0	0.0	3.5	2.4	2.0	CON	CON
307	256	Dwyfor Meirionnydd	Liz Saville Roberts	44,362	67.5	30.6	16.1	0.0	3.6	0.6	48.3	0.9	Plaid	Plaid
452	112	Montgomeryshire	Craig Williams	48,997	69.8	56.7	22.6	15.3	0.0	1.4	0.0	4.1	CON	CON
470	94	Brecon and Radnorshire	Fay Jones	55,490	74.5	51.3	15.8	28.1	0.0	1.4	0.0	3.4	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.