| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 18.2% | 0 | 15.7% | 1 | 0 | +1 | 1 |
| LAB | 37.0% | 27 | 18.8% | 0 | 24 | -24 | 3 |
| LIB | 6.5% | 1 | 6.8% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| Reform | 16.9% | 0 | 24.9% | 22 | 0 | +22 | 22 |
| Green | 4.7% | 0 | 9.5% | 2 | 0 | +2 | 2 |
| Plaid | 14.8% | 4 | 15.7% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| Other | 2.0% | 0 | 8.6% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Cardiff South and Penarth' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Ceredigion Preseli', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Dwyfor Meirionnydd (prediction: Plaid), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Cardiff South and Penarth (prediction: Green).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | Plaid % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 261 | Cardiff South and Penarth | Stephen Doughty | 72,613 | 54.0 | 12.1 | 21.2 | 7.1 | 16.0 | 24.7 | 11.3 | 7.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Green |
| 100 | 251 | Cardiff North | Anna McMorrin | 71,335 | 66.5 | 18.5 | 23.3 | 9.1 | 19.1 | 11.0 | 12.2 | 6.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 123 | 228 | Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney | Nick Smith | 70,153 | 42.7 | 9.3 | 25.2 | 5.8 | 23.2 | 13.9 | 13.1 | 9.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 125 | 226 | Cardiff West | Alex Barros-Curtis | 75,473 | 59.3 | 13.4 | 20.4 | 5.8 | 18.9 | 15.5 | 18.2 | 7.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 131 | 219 | Cardiff East | Jo Stevens | 72,873 | 53.7 | 10.8 | 19.0 | 12.1 | 18.1 | 19.1 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Green |
| 155 | 196 | Gower | Tonia Antoniazzi | 76,123 | 62.0 | 12.9 | 25.5 | 6.9 | 27.4 | 10.5 | 9.1 | 7.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 161 | 190 | Aberafan Maesteg | Stephen Kinnock | 72,580 | 49.3 | 5.3 | 28.6 | 4.8 | 31.0 | 10.5 | 8.7 | 11.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 162 | 189 | Rhondda and Ogmore | Chris Bryant | 74,493 | 48.1 | 5.6 | 25.3 | 4.4 | 27.8 | 12.3 | 11.5 | 13.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 177 | 174 | Swansea West | Torsten Bell | 74,236 | 48.0 | 10.8 | 18.7 | 9.1 | 22.6 | 14.6 | 13.2 | 11.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 178 | 172 | Monmouthshire | Catherine Fookes | 74,823 | 68.0 | 29.1 | 20.3 | 6.5 | 24.3 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 184 | 167 | Pontypridd | Alex Davies-Jones | 75,951 | 51.8 | 8.6 | 23.0 | 5.3 | 27.2 | 12.9 | 12.6 | 10.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 199 | 152 | Vale of Glamorgan | Kanishka Narayan | 74,374 | 61.6 | 24.4 | 19.5 | 7.1 | 24.6 | 9.0 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 200 | 151 | Newport West and Islwyn | Ruth Jones | 75,781 | 55.4 | 9.7 | 23.8 | 6.2 | 29.0 | 12.6 | 8.1 | 10.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 202 | 149 | Caerphilly | Chris Evans | 72,643 | 52.6 | 11.1 | 21.6 | 4.3 | 27.1 | 7.9 | 19.9 | 8.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 206 | 145 | Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare | Gerald Jones | 74,460 | 47.3 | 8.2 | 22.8 | 5.0 | 28.6 | 10.3 | 13.8 | 11.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 213 | 138 | Newport East | Jessica Morden | 76,845 | 50.1 | 12.5 | 21.3 | 6.2 | 27.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 10.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 216 | 135 | Bridgend | Chris Elmore | 73,152 | 56.6 | 12.6 | 22.3 | 5.3 | 29.2 | 9.7 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 229 | 122 | Clwyd East | Becky Gittins | 76,637 | 62.4 | 22.9 | 18.9 | 7.3 | 26.7 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 230 | 121 | Neath and Swansea East | Carolyn Harris | 76,291 | 52.6 | 10.7 | 20.7 | 5.6 | 28.5 | 8.9 | 15.9 | 9.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 231 | 120 | Torfaen | Nick Thomas-Symonds | 71,738 | 49.8 | 10.5 | 22.0 | 5.8 | 29.8 | 11.5 | 8.9 | 11.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 242 | 109 | Bangor Aberconwy | Claire Hughes | 69,023 | 60.4 | 17.9 | 18.6 | 4.8 | 27.1 | 4.5 | 21.1 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 244 | 107 | Alyn and Deeside | Mark Tami | 75,790 | 57.3 | 14.0 | 21.8 | 5.6 | 30.6 | 8.3 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 245 | 106 | Ynys Mon (Anglesey) | Llinos Medi | 53,141 | 61.4 | 23.1 | 14.4 | 4.8 | 23.2 | 4.1 | 22.6 | 7.7 | 0.0 | Plaid | Reform |
| 254 | 96 | Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe | David Chadwick | 73,114 | 63.7 | 20.8 | 11.3 | 21.8 | 21.1 | 5.5 | 13.5 | 6.1 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 257 | 94 | Wrexham | Andrew Steven Ranger | 70,269 | 57.5 | 19.5 | 19.0 | 5.8 | 29.3 | 5.1 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 277 | 74 | Clwyd North | Gill German | 75,027 | 55.5 | 25.0 | 15.4 | 5.6 | 27.6 | 5.4 | 12.6 | 8.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 281 | 70 | Llanelli | Nia Griffith | 71,536 | 57.0 | 10.8 | 17.7 | 4.0 | 30.5 | 6.9 | 20.9 | 9.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 296 | 55 | Pembrokeshire Mid and South | Henry Tufnell | 79,031 | 59.0 | 24.9 | 15.0 | 5.9 | 28.7 | 5.0 | 12.8 | 7.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 309 | 42 | Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr | Steve Witherden | 74,039 | 58.4 | 17.1 | 15.2 | 10.0 | 31.0 | 6.5 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 340 | 10 | Dwyfor Meirionnydd | Liz Saville Roberts | 73,042 | 55.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 28.0 | 4.3 | 49.7 | 6.1 | 0.0 | Plaid | Plaid |
| 340 | 10 | Caerfyrddin (Carmarthen) | Ann Davies | 74,003 | 61.6 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 32.2 | 3.8 | 38.9 | 6.4 | 0.0 | Plaid | Plaid |
| 340 | 10 | Ceredigion Preseli | Ben Lake | 75,690 | 61.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 9.4 | 27.6 | 5.5 | 44.8 | 6.8 | 0.0 | Plaid | Plaid |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.