Wales: Majority Sorted Seats

Wales Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 33.6%8 29.1%00+08
LAB 48.9%28 42.7%00+028
LIB 4.5%0 6.8%10+11
UKIP 2.0%0 5.4%00+00
Green 0.3%0 2.5%00+00
Plaid 10.4%4 10.4%01-13
Minor 0.2%0 3.1%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Rhondda, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Montgomeryshire, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Monmouth (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (prediction: Plaid).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Wales seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
30541Rhondda Chris Bryant50,51365.27.857.
35536Aberavon Stephen Kinnock49,89166.713.761.
44527Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Gerald Jones55,46360.514.
60511Cardiff Central Jo Stevens59,28868.115.356.
62509Blaenau Gwent Nick Smith51,22763.211.451.
64507Cynon Valley Ann Clwyd51,33262.
82489Swansea East Carolyn Harris58,52160.121.557.
83488Ogmore Chris Elmore56,66165.720.656.
98473Neath Christina Rees55,85968.519.
104467Islwyn Chris Evans56,25664.222.752.
118453Llanelli Nia Griffith59,43467.919.
124447Cardiff South and Penarth Stephen Doughty76,49966.325.753.
125446Caerphilly Wayne David64,38164.120.748.
129442Pontypridd Owen Smith60,56665.922.
132439Swansea West Geraint Davies56,89265.526.853.
137434Cardiff West Kevin Brennan67,22169.425.
141430Torfaen Nick Thomas-Symonds61,83962.126.451.
151419Arfon Hywel Williams41,36768.212.734.
158413Newport East Jessica Morden57,23364.330.
190381Ynys Mon Albert Owen52,44871.223.335.
193378Newport West Paul Flynn64,39967.534.846.
201370Alyn and Deeside Mark Tami63,04171.035.945.
202369Clwyd South Susan Elan Jones54,34169.034.644.
206365Bridgend Madeleine Moon62,18569.635.344.
207364Delyn David Hanson54,11672.836.945.
219352Cardiff North Anna McMorrin67,22177.437.643.
225346Gower Tonia Antoniazzi62,16373.338.
228343Vale of Clwyd Chris Ruane56,89068.039.543.
231340Wrexham Ian Lucas50,42269.639.
237333Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Jonathan Edwards55,97673.321.723.
245325Ceredigion Ben Lake52,88975.214.213.931.24.83.529.20.03.2PlaidLIB
260311Preseli Pembrokeshire Stephen Crabb58,54072.138.836.
269302Aberconwy Guto Bebb45,25171.
286285Vale of Glamorgan Alun Cairns73,95872.642.937.
302269Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Simon Hart58,54872.142.333.
304266Dwyfor Meirionnydd Liz Roberts44,69967.924.614.
305266Clwyd West David Jones58,26369.843.533.
339232Monmouth David Davies64,90976.648.630.
439132Brecon and Radnorshire Chris Davies56,01073.844.
47794Montgomeryshire Glyn Davies50,75568.747.310.927.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.