Wales: Majority Sorted Seats

Wales Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 33.6%8 34.6%30+311
LAB 48.9%28 38.9%03-325
LIB 4.5%0 6.3%00+00
Brexit 0.0%0 6.6%00+00
Green 0.3%0 1.2%00+00
Plaid 10.4%4 10.8%00+04
UKIP 2.0%0 0.0%00+00
Other 0.2%0 1.6%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Cardiff Central, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Montgomeryshire, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Brecon and Radnorshire (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bridgend (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Wales seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Brexit
%
Green
%
Plaid
%
UKIP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
35539Cardiff Central Jo Stevens59,28868.120.755.216.75.20.00.00.00.02.3LABLAB
54520Rhondda Chris Bryant50,51365.217.645.15.29.91.720.50.00.00.0LABLAB
72502Aberavon Stephen Kinnock49,89166.723.347.25.410.81.79.40.00.02.2LABLAB
74500Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Gerald Jones55,46360.523.547.06.510.90.09.80.00.02.3LABLAB
90484Blaenau Gwent Nick Smith51,22763.221.942.75.311.91.916.30.00.00.0LABLAB
92482Cynon Valley Ann Clwyd51,33262.023.843.75.610.50.014.30.00.02.1LABLAB
107467Ogmore Chris Elmore56,66165.727.444.96.410.41.79.20.00.00.0LABLAB
110464Swansea West Geraint Davies56,89265.529.446.69.37.50.07.20.00.00.0LABLAB
111463Cardiff South and Penarth Stephen Doughty76,49966.329.446.77.58.22.55.70.00.00.0LABLAB
113461Pontypridd Owen Smith60,56665.928.545.70.08.70.015.80.00.01.3LABLAB
118456Swansea East Carolyn Harris58,52160.128.544.86.510.92.17.30.00.00.0LABLAB
121453Cardiff West Kevin Brennan67,22169.428.744.67.57.62.19.50.00.00.0LABLAB
124449Arfon Hywel Williams41,36768.219.234.60.06.30.039.90.00.00.0PlaidPlaid
125449Caerphilly Wayne David64,38164.128.443.70.010.50.017.40.00.00.0LABLAB
130444Neath Christina Rees55,85968.526.340.65.610.01.713.70.00.02.1LABLAB
132442Llanelli Nia Griffith59,43467.927.741.60.010.70.020.00.00.00.0LABLAB
138436Islwyn Chris Evans56,25664.229.142.46.311.11.79.40.00.00.0LABLAB
162412Torfaen Nick Thomas-Symonds61,83962.131.641.46.611.31.87.30.00.00.0LABLAB
165409Gower Tonia Antoniazzi62,16373.337.747.36.95.00.03.10.00.00.0LABLAB
172402Newport East Jessica Morden57,23364.333.542.17.210.71.84.70.00.00.0LABLAB
174400Vale of Clwyd Chris Ruane56,89068.037.645.65.87.60.03.30.00.00.0LABLAB
197377Ynys Mon Albert Owen52,44871.229.435.00.09.30.026.40.00.00.0LABLAB
203371Delyn David Hanson54,11672.839.944.86.15.80.03.40.00.00.0LABLAB
206368Newport West Paul Flynn64,39967.535.940.57.29.32.24.90.00.00.0LABLAB
209365Cardiff North Anna McMorrin67,22177.435.940.08.46.41.85.70.00.01.8LABLAB
215359Wrexham Ian Lucas50,42269.638.741.57.36.51.44.80.00.00.0LABLAB
223350Ceredigion Ben Lake52,88975.222.122.920.68.02.523.90.00.00.0PlaidPlaid
225348Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Jonathan Edwards55,97673.327.327.40.09.20.036.10.00.00.0PlaidPlaid
229345Clwyd South Susan Elan Jones54,34169.042.041.06.96.40.03.80.00.00.0LABCON
235339Alyn and Deeside Mark Tami63,04171.042.339.87.17.70.03.20.00.00.0LABCON
238336Bridgend Madeleine Moon62,18569.641.138.18.36.41.44.70.00.00.0LABCON
251322Dwyfor Meirionnydd Liz Roberts44,69967.928.022.40.08.60.041.00.00.00.0PlaidPlaid
260314Vale of Glamorgan Alun Cairns73,95872.654.244.50.00.01.30.00.00.00.0CONCON
274300Aberconwy Guto Bebb45,25171.047.331.67.20.00.013.80.00.00.0CONCON
283291Preseli Pembrokeshire Stephen Crabb58,54072.149.432.26.60.00.011.70.00.00.0CONCON
303271Clwyd West David Jones58,26369.850.329.56.70.00.013.50.00.00.0CONCON
305269Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Simon Hart58,54872.151.029.76.10.00.013.10.00.00.0CONCON
319255Monmouth David Davies64,90976.652.128.88.10.01.98.30.00.00.9CONCON
379195Brecon and Radnorshire Chris Davies56,01073.852.822.922.70.00.00.00.00.01.5CONCON
427147Montgomeryshire Glyn Davies50,75568.756.123.219.30.00.00.00.00.01.5CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.