Wales: Majority Sorted Seats

Wales Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 33.6%8 26.6%61+513
LAB 48.9%28 29.6%06-622
LIB 4.5%0 15.1%20+22
Brexit 0.0%0 11.9%00+00
Green 0.3%0 2.0%00+00
Plaid 10.4%4 13.5%01-13
UKIP 2.0%0 0.6%00+00
Other 0.2%0 0.7%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Rhondda, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Montgomeryshire, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Monmouth (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Alyn and Deeside (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Wales seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Brexit
%
Green
%
Plaid
%
UKIP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
47500Rhondda Chris Bryant50,51365.213.738.610.511.32.222.40.60.00.7LABLAB
59488Aberavon Stephen Kinnock49,89166.718.739.811.913.62.112.60.60.00.7LABLAB
65482Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Gerald Jones55,46360.518.538.413.513.62.112.50.60.00.7LABLAB
75472Blaenau Gwent Nick Smith51,22763.216.635.410.013.22.121.40.60.00.7LABLAB
79468Cardiff Central Jo Stevens59,28868.116.935.026.16.03.511.20.60.00.6LABLAB
91456Cynon Valley Ann Clwyd51,33262.019.236.311.913.02.116.10.60.00.7LABLAB
105442Ogmore Chris Elmore56,66165.722.137.112.313.32.111.70.60.00.7LABLAB
108439Swansea East Carolyn Harris58,52160.122.637.212.214.02.310.40.60.00.7LABLAB
123424Cardiff South and Penarth Stephen Doughty76,49966.324.236.514.010.22.611.10.60.00.7LABLAB
125422Neath Christina Rees55,85968.521.833.712.412.92.015.90.60.00.7LABLAB
130417Islwyn Chris Evans56,25664.223.534.912.214.52.011.50.60.00.7LABLAB
132415Cardiff West Kevin Brennan67,22169.423.834.714.49.32.314.30.60.00.7LABLAB
136410Arfon Hywel Williams41,36768.215.726.312.76.92.035.20.60.00.6PlaidPlaid
137410Caerphilly Wayne David64,38164.122.032.612.413.02.416.20.60.00.7LABLAB
140407Llanelli Nia Griffith59,43467.921.732.111.113.01.918.90.60.00.7LABLAB
142405Swansea West Geraint Davies56,89265.524.234.217.09.23.011.10.60.00.7LABLAB
143404Pontypridd Owen Smith60,56665.922.332.217.411.22.213.50.60.00.7LABLAB
153394Torfaen Nick Thomas-Symonds61,83962.125.533.712.415.02.19.90.60.00.7LABLAB
175372Newport East Jessica Morden57,23364.327.333.313.514.21.88.50.60.00.8LABLAB
196351Ynys Mon Albert Owen52,44871.223.726.311.111.21.624.80.60.00.6LABLAB
202345Newport West Paul Flynn64,39967.530.031.713.712.42.38.60.60.00.7LABLAB
212335Bridgend Madeleine Moon62,18569.630.230.414.512.61.98.80.60.01.0LABLAB
213334Clwyd South Susan Elan Jones54,34169.030.330.412.314.01.89.90.60.00.7LABLAB
218329Alyn and Deeside Mark Tami63,04171.031.331.013.214.01.87.40.60.00.7LABCON
226321Cardiff North Anna McMorrin67,22177.431.430.417.38.82.08.90.60.00.7LABCON
227320Delyn David Hanson54,11672.831.930.813.712.41.78.20.60.00.7LABCON
231316Vale of Clwyd Chris Ruane56,89068.032.730.512.812.31.68.70.60.00.7LABCON
238309Gower Tonia Antoniazzi62,16373.332.329.615.311.41.88.20.60.00.8LABCON
239307Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Jonathan Edwards55,97673.322.719.711.110.81.732.80.60.00.6PlaidPlaid
243304Wrexham Ian Lucas50,42269.632.329.113.612.71.89.30.60.00.7LABCON
247299Ceredigion Ben Lake52,88975.216.712.933.08.52.325.50.50.00.6PlaidLIB
269278Preseli Pembrokeshire Stephen Crabb58,54072.133.626.812.913.71.79.90.60.00.7CONCON
270277Aberconwy Guto Bebb45,25171.033.026.014.311.41.712.30.60.00.7CONCON
276270Dwyfor Meirionnydd Liz Roberts44,69967.923.615.811.910.31.735.60.60.00.6PlaidPlaid
277270Vale of Glamorgan Alun Cairns73,95872.634.526.614.312.52.18.60.60.00.8CONCON
297250Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Simon Hart58,54872.134.924.412.413.61.611.80.60.00.7CONCON
299248Clwyd West David Jones58,26369.835.224.413.412.21.512.00.60.00.7CONCON
331216Monmouth David Davies64,90976.638.722.017.011.52.47.20.60.00.7CONCON
385161Brecon and Radnorshire Chris Davies56,01073.833.711.734.111.91.36.40.40.00.6CONLIB
404143Montgomeryshire Glyn Davies50,75568.735.311.629.312.81.78.20.40.00.6CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.