Wales: Majority Sorted Seats

Wales Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 33.6%8 34.6%30+311
LAB 48.9%28 38.9%03-325
LIB 4.5%0 6.3%00+00
Brexit 0.0%0 6.6%00+00
Green 0.3%0 1.2%00+00
Plaid 10.4%4 10.8%00+04
UKIP 2.0%0 0.0%00+00
Other 0.2%0 1.6%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Cardiff Central, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Montgomeryshire, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Brecon and Radnorshire (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bridgend (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Wales seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
35539Cardiff Central Jo Stevens59,28868.120.755.
54520Rhondda Chris Bryant50,51365.217.645.
72502Aberavon Stephen Kinnock49,89166.723.347.25.410.
74500Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Gerald Jones55,46360.523.547.06.510.
90484Blaenau Gwent Nick Smith51,22763.221.942.75.311.91.916.
92482Cynon Valley Ann Clwyd51,33262.023.843.75.610.
107467Ogmore Chris Elmore56,66165.727.444.96.410.
110464Swansea West Geraint Davies56,89265.529.446.
111463Cardiff South and Penarth Stephen Doughty76,49966.329.446.
113461Pontypridd Owen Smith60,56665.928.545.
118456Swansea East Carolyn Harris58,52160.128.544.86.510.
121453Cardiff West Kevin Brennan67,22169.428.744.
124449Arfon Hywel Williams41,36768.
125449Caerphilly Wayne David64,38164.128.443.
130444Neath Christina Rees55,85968.526.340.65.610.01.713.
132442Llanelli Nia Griffith59,43467.927.741.
138436Islwyn Chris Evans56,25664.
162412Torfaen Nick Thomas-Symonds61,83962.131.641.46.611.
165409Gower Tonia Antoniazzi62,16373.337.747.
172402Newport East Jessica Morden57,23364.333.542.
174400Vale of Clwyd Chris Ruane56,89068.037.645.
197377Ynys Mon Albert Owen52,44871.229.435.
203371Delyn David Hanson54,11672.839.944.
206368Newport West Paul Flynn64,39967.535.940.
209365Cardiff North Anna McMorrin67,22177.435.940.
215359Wrexham Ian Lucas50,42269.638.741.
223350Ceredigion Ben Lake52,88975.222.122.920.68.02.523.
225348Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Jonathan Edwards55,97673.327.327.
229345Clwyd South Susan Elan Jones54,34169.
235339Alyn and Deeside Mark Tami63,04171.042.339.
238336Bridgend Madeleine Moon62,18569.641.
251322Dwyfor Meirionnydd Liz Roberts44,69967.928.
260314Vale of Glamorgan Alun Cairns73,95872.654.
274300Aberconwy Guto Bebb45,25171.047.331.
283291Preseli Pembrokeshire Stephen Crabb58,54072.149.432.
303271Clwyd West David Jones58,26369.850.329.
305269Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Simon Hart58,54872.
319255Monmouth David Davies64,90976.652.
379195Brecon and Radnorshire Chris Davies56,01073.852.822.922.
427147Montgomeryshire Glyn Davies50,75568.756.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.