| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 18.2% | 0 | 16.5% | 4 | 0 | +4 | 4 |
| LAB | 37.0% | 27 | 24.3% | 0 | 13 | -13 | 14 |
| LIB | 6.5% | 1 | 5.1% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| Reform | 16.9% | 0 | 23.4% | 11 | 0 | +11 | 11 |
| Green | 4.7% | 0 | 7.5% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Plaid | 14.8% | 4 | 14.6% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| Other | 2.0% | 0 | 8.6% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Llanelli (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | Plaid % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 121 | 278 | Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney | Nick Smith | 70,153 | 42.7 | 11.6 | 31.4 | 4.1 | 18.3 | 11.1 | 14.1 | 9.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 133 | 266 | Cardiff South and Penarth | Stephen Doughty | 72,613 | 54.0 | 13.0 | 26.8 | 5.3 | 14.9 | 22.4 | 10.1 | 7.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 146 | 253 | Cardiff North | Anna McMorrin | 71,335 | 66.5 | 19.3 | 29.0 | 6.8 | 18.2 | 8.8 | 11.0 | 6.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 165 | 234 | Cardiff West | Alex Barros-Curtis | 75,473 | 59.3 | 14.2 | 26.6 | 4.2 | 17.1 | 13.0 | 17.0 | 7.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 180 | 219 | Cardiff East | Jo Stevens | 72,873 | 53.7 | 11.7 | 25.3 | 9.5 | 17.1 | 16.8 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 201 | 198 | Gower | Tonia Antoniazzi | 76,123 | 62.0 | 16.7 | 29.1 | 5.1 | 23.1 | 8.2 | 10.1 | 7.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 208 | 191 | Pontypridd | Alex Davies-Jones | 75,951 | 51.8 | 5.6 | 34.2 | 3.8 | 29.0 | 10.2 | 6.9 | 10.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 216 | 183 | Aberafan Maesteg | Stephen Kinnock | 72,580 | 49.3 | 3.8 | 36.5 | 3.4 | 32.0 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 11.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 219 | 180 | Rhondda and Ogmore | Chris Bryant | 74,493 | 48.1 | 3.1 | 34.8 | 3.2 | 30.6 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 13.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 237 | 161 | Monmouthshire | Catherine Fookes | 74,823 | 68.0 | 30.0 | 25.2 | 4.8 | 22.7 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 6.6 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 241 | 158 | Swansea West | Torsten Bell | 74,236 | 48.0 | 5.6 | 30.5 | 6.8 | 28.2 | 12.2 | 5.7 | 11.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 246 | 153 | Newport West and Islwyn | Ruth Jones | 75,781 | 55.4 | 8.1 | 31.6 | 4.5 | 29.5 | 10.1 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 251 | 148 | Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare | Gerald Jones | 74,460 | 47.3 | 3.8 | 34.9 | 3.6 | 33.1 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 11.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 253 | 145 | Vale of Glamorgan | Kanishka Narayan | 74,374 | 61.6 | 25.2 | 24.6 | 5.2 | 23.4 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 8.1 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 258 | 141 | Caerphilly | Chris Evans | 72,643 | 52.6 | 9.1 | 30.1 | 3.1 | 29.3 | 6.1 | 14.2 | 8.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 263 | 136 | Bridgend | Chris Elmore | 73,152 | 56.6 | 7.4 | 33.6 | 3.8 | 33.2 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 269 | 130 | Newport East | Jessica Morden | 76,845 | 50.1 | 7.7 | 31.1 | 4.5 | 31.4 | 10.0 | 4.6 | 10.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 287 | 112 | Clwyd East | Becky Gittins | 76,637 | 62.4 | 23.8 | 23.8 | 5.4 | 25.5 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 291 | 108 | Neath and Swansea East | Carolyn Harris | 76,291 | 52.6 | 4.4 | 33.6 | 4.1 | 35.8 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 9.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 294 | 105 | Torfaen | Nick Thomas-Symonds | 71,738 | 49.8 | 5.3 | 31.9 | 4.2 | 34.2 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 11.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 297 | 101 | Caerfyrddin (Carmarthen) | Ann Davies | 74,003 | 61.6 | 16.1 | 20.4 | 2.8 | 23.2 | 2.7 | 28.5 | 6.4 | 0.0 | Plaid | Plaid |
| 298 | 101 | Bangor Aberconwy | Claire Hughes | 69,023 | 60.4 | 18.7 | 22.9 | 3.5 | 25.7 | 3.3 | 20.0 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 302 | 96 | Ynys Mon (Anglesey) | Llinos Medi | 53,141 | 61.4 | 24.0 | 18.5 | 3.5 | 21.9 | 3.0 | 21.4 | 7.7 | 0.0 | Plaid | CON |
| 306 | 92 | Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe | David Chadwick | 73,114 | 63.7 | 21.6 | 16.4 | 19.2 | 20.2 | 4.1 | 12.3 | 6.1 | 0.0 | LIB | CON |
| 306 | 92 | Dwyfor Meirionnydd | Liz Saville Roberts | 73,042 | 55.3 | 12.0 | 16.0 | 2.8 | 19.7 | 3.1 | 40.2 | 6.1 | 0.0 | Plaid | Plaid |
| 311 | 88 | Wrexham | Andrew Steven Ranger | 70,269 | 57.5 | 20.4 | 23.6 | 4.3 | 27.9 | 3.7 | 12.2 | 7.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 317 | 81 | Ceredigion Preseli | Ben Lake | 75,690 | 61.2 | 11.7 | 14.8 | 7.1 | 19.7 | 4.1 | 35.9 | 6.8 | 0.0 | Plaid | Plaid |
| 323 | 76 | Alyn and Deeside | Mark Tami | 75,790 | 57.3 | 6.1 | 32.6 | 4.1 | 37.8 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 9.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 336 | 63 | Llanelli | Nia Griffith | 71,536 | 57.0 | 11.7 | 22.5 | 2.9 | 28.8 | 5.2 | 19.8 | 9.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 339 | 60 | Clwyd North | Gill German | 75,027 | 55.5 | 25.8 | 19.9 | 4.1 | 26.3 | 4.0 | 11.5 | 8.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 354 | 45 | Pembrokeshire Mid and South | Henry Tufnell | 79,031 | 59.0 | 25.7 | 19.7 | 4.4 | 27.2 | 3.7 | 11.6 | 7.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 370 | 29 | Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr | Steve Witherden | 74,039 | 58.4 | 17.9 | 20.5 | 7.5 | 30.0 | 4.9 | 12.0 | 7.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.