Wales: Majority Sorted Seats

Wales Prediction

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	36.1%	14	20.0%	0	12	-12	2
LAB	40.9%	22	47.5%	12	0	+12	34
LIB	6.0%	0	3.7%	0	0	+0	0
Reform	5.4%	0	11.4%	0	0	+0	0
Green	1.0%	0	3.2%	0	0	+0	0
Plaid	9.9%	4	13.8%	0	0	+0	4
Other	0.6%	0	0.3%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in Wales sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Cardiff Central, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Montgomeryshire, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Newport East (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Wales seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2019	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	Plaid %	OTH %	2019 Win	Pred Win
75	491	Cardiff Central	Jo Stevens	64,037	65.3	12.2	63.1	6.1	9.6	4.6	4.1	0.3	LAB	LAB
82	484	Rhondda	Chris Bryant	50,262	59.0	9.2	59.1	2.1	10.9	3.3	15.1	0.3	LAB	LAB
95	471	Aberavon	Stephen Kinnock	50,750	62.3	11.0	58.1	2.6	12.3	3.6	11.9	0.4	LAB	LAB
107	459	Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney	Gerald Jones	56,322	57.3	10.7	56.1	3.1	13.6	3.3	12.8	0.5	LAB	LAB
110	456	Blaenau Gwent	Nick Smith	50,739	59.6	10.8	55.9	2.8	15.5	3.6	10.9	0.5	LAB	LAB
121	445	Cynon Valley	Beth Winter	51,134	59.1	11.7	56.1	2.6	12.3	2.9	13.9	0.4	LAB	LAB
134	432	Cardiff South and Penarth	Stephen Doughty	78,837	64.2	16.8	59.6	2.8	9.9	4.4	6.2	0.3	LAB	LAB
136	430	Swansea East	Carolyn Harris	58,450	57.4	13.6	56.3	3.1	12.4	3.8	10.3	0.5	LAB	LAB
137	429	Ogmore	Chris Elmore	57,581	61.5	13.7	56.0	3.0	12.2	3.8	11.0	0.3	LAB	LAB
157	409	Cardiff West	Kevin Brennan	68,508	67.4	17.1	57.0	2.8	9.3	4.2	9.3	0.3	LAB	LAB
161	405	Caerphilly	Wayne David	63,166	63.5	15.2	54.8	1.3	10.6	2.1	15.5	0.4	LAB	LAB
171	395	Islwyn	Chris Evans	55,423	62.0	16.1	54.7	2.6	13.0	3.6	9.6	0.4	LAB	LAB
172	394	Swansea West	Geraint Davies	57,078	62.8	16.8	55.2	4.3	10.9	4.0	8.4	0.4	LAB	LAB
206	360	Pontypridd	Alex Davies-Jones	60,327	64.7	18.1	51.8	2.4	11.2	3.2	12.9	0.4	LAB	LAB
208	358	Neath	Christina Rees	56,419	65.1	14.0	47.2	3.1	13.0	3.3	18.9	0.4	LAB	LAB
210	356	Torfaen	Nick Thomas-Symonds	62,330	59.6	17.9	50.9	3.1	15.2	4.4	8.1	0.5	LAB	LAB
212	354	Llanelli	Nia Griffith	60,518	63.2	15.9	48.3	1.6	11.1	2.1	20.6	0.3	LAB	LAB
232	334	Cardiff North	Anna McMorrin	68,438	77.0	23.4	53.5	3.8	9.4	4.3	5.2	0.2	LAB	LAB
240	326	Newport East	Jessica Morden	58,554	62.0	22.2	50.7	3.6	12.8	4.2	6.2	0.3	LAB	LAB
252	314	Newport West	Ruth Jones	66,657	65.2	24.0	51.4	3.2	11.4	4.4	5.3	0.3	LAB	LAB
257	308	Arfon	Hywel Williams	42,215	68.9	7.3	34.2	1.0	6.3	1.0	50.0	0.2	Plaid	Plaid
262	304	Alyn and Deeside	Mark Tami	62,789	68.5	21.6	48.1	3.5	13.8	3.7	8.8	0.5	LAB	LAB
276	290	Clwyd South	Simon Baynes	53,919	67.3	22.3	46.8	3.3	12.4	2.7	12.1	0.3	CON	LAB
278	288	Gower	Tonia Antoniazzi	61,762	72.0	24.4	48.9	3.7	11.1	3.7	8.0	0.3	LAB	LAB
283	283	Bridgend	Jamie Wallis	63,303	66.7	22.3	46.2	3.3	12.7	4.2	10.9	0.5	CON	LAB
288	278	Delyn	Rob Roberts	54,560	70.3	23.1	46.6	4.0	13.5	3.5	8.9	0.4	CON	LAB
292	274	Vale of Clwyd	James Davies	56,649	65.7	24.1	47.0	3.2	12.3	3.1	9.9	0.4	CON	LAB
297	269	Ynys Mon	Virginia Crosbie	51,925	70.4	18.1	40.2	1.3	9.8	1.2	29.3	0.2	CON	LAB
298	268	Wrexham	Sarah Atherton	49,737	67.4	24.1	46.1	2.8	11.6	2.7	12.3	0.4	CON	LAB
300	266	Aberconwy	Robin Millar	44,699	71.3	25.4	47.3	2.4	9.6	1.9	13.1	0.3	CON	LAB
305	261	Vale of Glamorgan	Alun Cairns	76,508	71.6	28.8	49.6	2.2	9.7	4.7	4.7	0.2	CON	LAB
317	249	Preseli Pembrokeshire	Stephen Crabb	59,606	71.2	24.8	43.9	3.3	12.1	2.7	12.9	0.3	CON	LAB
326	240	Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South	Simon Hart	59,158	71.2	27.0	43.9	3.0	11.4	2.3	12.1	0.2	CON	LAB
345	220	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Jonathan Edwards	57,419	71.4	18.7	32.2	1.0	8.6	1.0	38.4	0.2	Plaid	Plaid
359	206	Ceredigion	Ben Lake	56,386	71.1	13.6	24.8	6.7	11.5	2.0	41.4	0.2	Plaid	Plaid
361	205	Clwyd West	David Jones	57,714	69.7	28.5	39.7	3.3	11.1	2.8	14.3	0.3	CON	LAB
393	173	Monmouth	David Davies	67,098	74.8	34.1	40.1	4.9	11.1	4.5	5.0	0.2	CON	LAB
397	168	Dwyfor Meirionnydd	Liz Saville Roberts	44,362	67.5	16.0	21.8	1.1	8.4	0.8	51.8	0.1	Plaid	Plaid
520	46	Brecon and Radnorshire	Fay Jones	55,490	74.5	33.8	26.3	19.4	13.5	3.0	3.9	0.1	CON	CON
531	35	Montgomeryshire	Craig Williams	48,997	69.8	35.9	27.1	14.0	14.0	3.0	5.9	0.1	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.