Proposed Constituency Boundaries 2018

This page first posted 30 May 2016, last updated 27 April 2020

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New Boundaries 2018 Introduction

Following the passage of the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act, the four national Boundary Commissions were asked to undertake the "2018 Review" of contituency boundaries to equalise the size of seat both within and between the four nations of the UK. The Boundary Commissions are independent bodies who put considerable effort into drawing up boundaries in a generally fair way, reflecting local geography and affiliations. There are two consultation periods where comments and objections to the proposals can be brought forward for consideration.

The Boundary Commission of England published its initial set of proposals on 13 September 2016, with final proposals being ready by September 2018. The Welsh Boundary Commission also published their initial proposals on the same day. The Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland published its initial proposals on 6 September 2016. The Scottish Boundary Commission is published its initial proposals on 20 October 2016.

Revised proposals were published by the English, Scottish and Welsh Boundary Commissions on 17 October 2017. Revised proposals were published by the Northern Ireland Boundary Commission in January 2018.

Final proposals were published by all four Boundary Commissions on 10 September 2018. The analysis below is based on these final proposals.

Browsable national map

Click on the map image to go to a full browsable map of the all the seats with initial proposals.

UK New Boundary Seat Map 2018

Next review in 2023

Nonetheless, the government did not push forward with acceptance of the new 2018 boundaries, and the 2019 General Election was run using the existing boundaries, which have been in use since 2010.

In March 2020, the government announced (full text) that it is going to restart the stalled programme of new boundaries for Westminster constituencies. This new review, which is yet to be legislated for, will keep the number of seats at 650 and not reduce them to 600 as had been planned by David Cameron's coalition government. The strict 5pc tolerance on seat electorates will be retained, but future reviews will take place every eight years, rather than every five years.

The next Boundary Review is expected to start in early 2021 and to report by October 2023. See our full analysis of 2023 review.

Seat Totals by Nation

The total number of seats per consituent part of the country is already known:

AreaOld SeatsNew SeatsChange
England533501−32
Scotland5953−6
Wales4029−11
Northern
Ireland
1817−1
Total650600−50

This page contains full details of these reviews as they are published.

Executive Summary

The Boundary Commissions have now all published their initial proposals. This allows us to get a good overall view of the likely outcome. In terms of the headline impact on seats nationally the implied result of the 2019 general election, as if it had been run under the new boundaries, is:

Actual general
election result 2019
Implied result at 2019
under new boundaries
Net ChangeDisappearSwitch OutSwitch InFresh
CON365352−13−26−13215
LAB203174−29−24−19122
LIB117−40−400
Brexit0000000
Green1100000
SNP4847−1−6−151
Plaid42−2−1−100
DUP87−1−1000
SF7700000
SDLP2200000
Alliance1100000
Total650600−50−58−38388

The Conservatives would change from having a majority of 80 seats out of 650 to having a majority of 104 seats out of 600. That would be more like a landslide result, where the Conservatives would win more than twice the number of seats of Labour.

The analysis below shows which seats "disappear" under the boundary changes, which seats switch party allegiance, and which fresh seats are newly created.

Area by area

Area by area, the net change in seats is shown in this table:

RegionOld SeatsNew SeatsChangeCONLABLIBBrexitGreenNATDUP
Northern Ireland1817−1000000−1
Scotland5953−6−1−1−300−10
North East2925−4−2−200000
North West7568−7−3−3−10000
Yorks/Humber5450−40−400000
Wales4029−11−3−6000−20
West Midlands5953−6−3−300000
East Midlands4644−2−2000000
Anglia5857−10−100000
South West5553−2−1−100000
London7368−50−500000
South East8483−12−300000
Total650600−50−13−29−400−3−1

There are full regional pages of explanation and seat breakdowns available. Just click on the region's name in the left-hand column of the table.

Generally, the regions of northern England and London lose the most seats, while southern England loses fewer seats. Since the former regions are more Labour-leaning than the latter, this is the main driver for the relatively larger losses of Labour seats.

Disappearing Seats

For each proposed new seat, we define the predecessor seat to be the old seat which contributes the most voters to that new seat. Old seats which are not the predecessor of any new seat are said to "disappear". This means that they are split into fragments, and none of those fragments forms the largest part of any new seat.

There are 58 disappearing seats across the country, shown in the table below:

Old SeatPartyCurrent MPCounty/Area
AberavonLABStephen KinnockWest Glamorgan (Wales)
AberconwyCONRobin MillarClwyd (Wales)
Aberdeenshire West and KincardineCONAndrew BowieGrampian (Scotland)
Airdrie and ShottsSNPNeil GrayGlasgow area (Scotland)
Antrim SouthDUPPaul GirvanAntrim (Northern Ireland)
ArfonPlaidHywel WilliamsGwynedd (Wales)
Ayrshire CentralSNPPhilippa WhitfordAyrshire and Lanark (Scotland)
Birmingham Perry BarrLABKhalid MahmoodBirmingham (West Midlands)
Bradford EastLABImran HussainWest Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Cardiff CentralLABJo StevensSouth Glamorgan (Wales)
Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthCONSimon HartDyfed (Wales)
Chelsea and FulhamCONGreg HandsHammersmith and Fulham (London)
Cornwall NorthCONScott MannCornwall (South West)
DelynCONRob RobertsClwyd (Wales)
Derbyshire MidCONPauline LathamDerbyshire (East Midlands)
Dorset NorthCONSimon HoareDorset (South West)
Dudley NorthCONMarco LonghiBlack Country (West Midlands)
Dulwich and West NorwoodLABHelen HayesLambeth (London)
Durham, City ofLABMary FoyDurham (North East)
Edinburgh South WestSNPJoanna CherryEdinburgh area (Scotland)
Erith and ThamesmeadLABAbena Oppong-AsareBexley (London)
Faversham and Kent MidCONHelen WhatelyKent (South East)
Finchley and Golders GreenCONMike FreerBarnet (London)
Glasgow CentralSNPAlison ThewlissGlasgow area (Scotland)
GowerLABTonia AntoniazziWest Glamorgan (Wales)
Great GrimsbyCONLia NiciHumber area (Yorks/Humber)
Hackney North and Stoke NewingtonLABDiane AbbottHackney (London)
Haltemprice and HowdenCONDavid DavisHumber area (Yorks/Humber)
Herefordshire NorthCONBill WigginHereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
IslwynLABChris EvansGwent (Wales)
Kenilworth and SouthamCONJeremy WrightWarwickshire (West Midlands)
Lancaster and FleetwoodLABCat SmithLancashire (North West)
Leeds WestLABRachel ReevesWest Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Leyton and WansteadLABJohn CryerWaltham Forest (London)
Liverpool WaltonLABDan CardenMerseyside (North West)
Meon ValleyCONFlick DrummondHampshire (South East)
Middlesbrough South and Cleveland EastCONSimon ClarkeTeesside (North East)
MontgomeryshireCONCraig WilliamsPowys (Wales)
Newcastle upon Tyne NorthLABCatherine McKinnellNewcastle area (North East)
Newport EastLABJessica MordenGwent (Wales)
Nottingham EastLABNadia WhittomeNottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Ochil and South PerthshireSNPJohn NicolsonCentral (Scotland)
Penistone and StocksbridgeCONMiriam CatesSouth Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
PontypriddLABAlex Davies-JonesMid Glamorgan (Wales)
Poplar and LimehouseLABApsana BegumTower Hamlets (London)
Ribble ValleyCONNigel EvansLancashire (North West)
RochdaleLABTony LloydEastern Manchester (North West)
Ross Skye and LochaberSNPIan BlackfordHighland (Scotland)
StockportLABNavendu MishraEastern Manchester (North West)
Stockton NorthLABAlex CunninghamTeesside (North East)
StoneCONBill CashStaffordshire (West Midlands)
TattonCONEsther McVeyCheshire (North West)
Tunbridge WellsCONGreg ClarkKent (South East)
Walsall NorthCONEddie HughesBlack Country (West Midlands)
WansbeckLABIan LaveryNorthumberland (North East)
Wirral SouthLABAlison McGovernMerseyside (North West)
WithamCONPriti PatelEssex (Anglia)
WorkingtonCONMark JenkinsonCumbria (North West)

If an MP's name is shown here it does not mean that he or she will stop being an MP at the next election. But they have to change the precise area which they represent, and they may be subject to their party's reselection process.

Switching seats

Some new seats have clear predecessor seats, but the boundary changes are large enough that the new seat contains many voters with a different political outlook. This can cause the new seat to have a different predicted party winner from its predecessor. Such seats are called "switching seats", and there are 38 of them:

Old seatOld
Party
Current MPNew seatNew PartyNew
Majority
County/Area
Alyn and DeesideLABMark TamiAlyn and DeesideCON412Clwyd (Wales)
Batley and SpenLABTracy BrabinBradford South East and SpenCON901West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
BedfordLABMohammad YasinBedfordCON803Bedfordshire (Anglia)
Blyth ValleyCONIan LevyBlyth and AshingtonLAB2,258Northumberland (North East)
Bolton North EastCONMark LoganBolton North EastLAB3,815Western Manchester (North West)
Brighton KemptownLABLloyd Russell-MoyleBrighton Kemptown and SeahavenCON6,473East Sussex (South East)
BurnleyCONAntony HigginbothamBurnleyLAB1,157Lancashire (North West)
Bury SouthCONChristian WakefordPrestwich and MiddletonLAB179Western Manchester (North West)
Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossLIBJamie StoneHighland NorthSNP4,156Highland (Scotland)
CanterburyLABRosie DuffieldCanterbury and FavershamCON3,692Kent (South East)
Carmarthen East and DinefwrPlaidJonathan EdwardsCarmarthenCON5,381Dyfed (Wales)
Coventry SouthLABZarah SultanaCoventry South and KenilworthCON9,528Coventry and Solihull (West Midlands)
Croydon CentralLABSarah JonesCroydon South EastCON1,837Croydon (London)
Derby NorthCONAmanda SollowayDerby WestLAB7,336Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Derby SouthLABMargaret BeckettDerby EastCON8,305Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Durham North WestCONRichard HoldenDurham North WestLAB545Durham (North East)
Edinburgh SouthLABIan MurrayEdinburgh SouthSNP3,448Edinburgh area (Scotland)
Edinburgh WestLIBChristine JardineEdinburgh WestSNP1,038Edinburgh area (Scotland)
ElthamLABClive EffordEltham and East WickhamCON1,118Greenwich (London)
Fife North EastLIBWendy ChamberlainFife North EastSNP3,916Fife (Scotland)
GedlingCONTom RandallNottingham East and CarltonLAB11,920Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
GordonSNPRichard ThomsonGordon and DeesideCON1,735Grampian (Scotland)
HemsworthLABJon TrickettWakefield RuralCON1,766West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Heywood and MiddletonCONChris ClarksonRochdaleLAB7,232Eastern Manchester (North West)
Hull West and HessleLABEmma HardyKingston upon Hull West and HaltempriceCON6,541Humber area (Yorks/Humber)
MorayCONDouglas RossMoray and NairnSNP965Grampian (Scotland)
Oldham East and SaddleworthLABDebbie AbrahamsLittleborough and SaddleworthCON2,443Eastern Manchester (North West)
Plymouth Sutton and DevonportLABLuke PollardPlymouth Sutton and DevonportCON720Devon (South West)
PudseyCONStuart AndrewPudseyLAB9,786West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Southampton TestLABAlan WhiteheadSouthampton TestCON788Hampshire (South East)
Walsall SouthLABValerie VazWalsall and OscottCON730Black Country (West Midlands)
Warwick and LeamingtonLABMatt WesternWarwick and LeamingtonCON2,748Warwickshire (West Midlands)
Weaver ValeLABMike AmesburyWeaver ValeCON4,480Cheshire (North West)
West Bromwich EastCONNicola RichardsWest BromwichLAB3,347Black Country (West Midlands)
West Bromwich WestCONShaun BaileyDarlaston and TiptonLAB277Black Country (West Midlands)
Westmorland and LonsdaleLIBTim FarronWestmorland and LonsdaleCON1,320Cumbria (North West)
Wolverhampton South EastLABPat McFaddenWolverhampton South and CoseleyCON4,819Black Country (West Midlands)
Ynys MonCONVirginia CrosbieAnglesey and BangorLAB1,517Gwynedd (Wales)

Notable seats changing hands include the 2019 Conservative victory in Blyth Valley and the 2017 Labour gain in Canterbury, as well as Margaret Becket's seat of Derby South and Tim Farron's seat in Westmorland.

Freshly created new seats

Although the overall change is to reduce the number of seats, there are a few new seats which are freshly created. This means that the new seat is made up of a number of small fragments from various old seats. If the largest component of the new seat is not the largest part of its corresponding old seat, then the seat is defined to be "fresh". There are eight fresh new seats:

New SeatPartyMajorityCounty/Area
Bramhall and WilmslowCON12,241Eastern Manchester (North West)
Falkirk SouthSNP12,025Central (Scotland)
Great Grimsby North and BartonCON17,817Humber area (Yorks/Humber)
Isle of Wight WestCON10,158Hampshire (South East)
Leyton and StratfordLAB30,616Newham (London)
Middlesbrough South and ThornabyCON5,527Teesside (North East)
Shoreditch and Bethnal GreenLAB37,718Hackney (London)
Weald of KentCON25,318Kent (South East)

England

The Boundary Commission for England published final proposals on 10 September 2018.

The net effect of the changes for England is shown in the following table:

 Old SeatsNew SeatsChangeDisappearSwitch OutSwitch InFresh
CON345336−9−21−11185
LAB180158−22−18−17112
LIB76−10−100
Brexit0000000
Green1100000
Total533501−32−39−30307

Full details are available on the area pages: North East, North West, Yorks/Humber, West Midlands, East Midlands, Anglia, South West, London, South East

Wales

The Boundary Commission for Wales published final proposals on 10 September 2018.

The net effect of the changes for Wales is shown in the following table:

 Old SeatsNew SeatsChangeDisappearSwitch OutSwitch InFresh
CON1411−3−4−120
LAB2216−6−6−110
LIB0000000
Brexit0000000
Green0000000
Plaid42−2−1−100
Total4029−11−11−330

Visit the Wales Area page for more details.

Scotland

The Boundary Commission for Scotland published its final proposals on 10 September 2018.

The net effect of the changes for Scotland is shown in the following table:

 Old SeatsNew SeatsChangeDisappearSwitch OutSwitch InFresh
CON65−1−1−110
LAB10−10−100
LIB41−30−300
Brexit0000000
Green0000000
SNP4847−1−6−151
Total5953−6−7−771

Visit the Scotland Area page for more details.

Northern Ireland

Final proposals for new parliamentary boundaries were published by the Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland on 10 September 2018. Analysis of these final proposals by Electoral Calculus, assuming that 2019 voting patterns remain stable, indicates the the Democratic Unionist Party will lose one seat because two of their existing seats (Antrim South and Lagan Valley) are merged together in the new seat of Antrim South. The total number of seats in the province decreases from 18 to 17.

 Old SeatsNew SeatsChangeDisappearSwitch OutSwitch InFresh
DUP87−1−1000
SF7700000
SDLP2200000
Alliance1100000
UUP0000000
Green0000000
Total1716−1−1000

Visit the Northern Ireland Area page for more details.

History of revisions.

The data presented has been revised at various times.

See also the information about the now-abandoned "Sixth Periodic review", to compare against the 2018 Review.