New Constituency Boundaries for Britain 2018

This page first posted 30 May 2016, updated 14 September 2018

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New Boundaries Introduction

Following the passage of the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act, the four national Boundary Commissions were asked to undertake the "2018 Review" of contituency boundaries to equalise the size of seat both within and between the four nations of the UK. The Boundary Commissions are independent bodies who put considerable effort into drawing up boundaries in a generally fair way, reflecting local geography and affiliations. There are two consultation periods where comments and objections to the proposals can be brought forward for consideration.

The Boundary Commission of England published its initial set of proposals on 13 September 2016, with final proposals being ready by September 2018. The Welsh Boundary Commission also published their initial proposals on the same day. The Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland published its initial proposals on 6 September 2016. The Scottish Boundary Commission is published its initial proposals on 20 October 2016.

Revised proposals were published by the English, Scottish and Welsh Boundary Commissions on 17 October 2017. Revised proposals were published by the Northern Ireland Boundary Commission in January 2018.

Final proposals were published by all four Boundary Commissions on 10 September 2018. The analysis below is based on these final proposals.

Browsable national map

Click on the map image to go to a full browsable map of the all the seats with initial proposals.

UK New Boundary Seat Map 2018

Review in doubt — September 2017

Press reports in early September 2017 (see Times or Guardian) suggest that the government is unlikely to push forward with the reduction in seats to 600. It is suggested that the Boundary Commissions will be asked to repeat their reviews but keeping the total number of seats at 650.

That will require primary legislation, since the 600 seats are set down in the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011. If new legislation is brought forward it could usefully also change the electorate tolerances from 5pc to 10pc, as this would make seats more homogeneous and reduce the need to cross traditional boundaries.

A repeat of the reviews could not be done very quickly, since all the proposed boundaries would have to be redrawn and the consultation processes re-run on the new boundaries.

Taken together, this greatly increases the chances that the next general election will be run under the existing boundaries.

Seat Totals by Nation

The total number of seats per consituent part of the country is already known:

AreaOld SeatsNew SeatsChange
England533501−32
Scotland5953−6
Wales4029−11
Northern
Ireland
1817−1
Total650600−50

This page contains full details of these reviews as they are published.

Executive Summary

The Boundary Commissions have now all published their initial proposals. This allows us to get a good overall view of the likely outcome. In terms of the headline impact on seats nationally the implied result of the 2017 general election, as if it had been run under the new boundaries, is:

Actual general
election result 2017
Implied result at 2017
under new boundaries
ChangeDisappearSwitch OutSwitch InFresh
CON318304−14−22−14184
LAB262238−24−29−16183
LIB127−50−500
UKIP0000000
Green1100000
SNP3531−4−5−331
Plaid42−2−1−100
DUP10100−1010
SF7700000
MIN10−10−100
Total650600−50−58−40408

The Conservatives would change from being 8 seats short of a majority to having a majority of eight seats. If they continued to have an alliance with the DUP, their total majority would have increased from six to twenty-eight.

The analysis below shows which seats "disappear" under the boundary changes, which seats switch party allegiance, and which fresh seats are newly created.

Area by area

Area by area, the net change in seats is shown in this table:

RegionOld SeatsNew SeatsChangeCONLABLIBUKIPGreenNATMIN
Northern Ireland1817−1000000−1
Scotland5953−6−22−200−40
North East2925−4−1−300000
North West7568−70−6−10000
Yorks/Humber5450−4−1−300000
Wales4029−11−3−6000−20
West Midlands5953−6−2−400000
East Midlands4644−21−300000
Anglia5857−1−2100000
South West5553−2−3100000
London7368−5−2−2−10000
South East8483−11−1−10000
Total650600−50−14−24−500−6−1

There are full regional pages of explanation and seat breakdowns available. Just click on the region's name in the left-hand column of the table.

Generally, the regions of northern England and London lose the most seats, while southern England loses fewer seats. Since the former regions are more Labour-leaning than the latter, this is the main driver for the relatively larger losses of Labour seats.

Disappearing Seats

For each proposed new seat, we define the predecessor seat to be the old seat which contributes the most voters to that new seat. Old seats which are not the predecessor of any new seat are said to "disappear". This means that they are split into fragments, and none of those fragments forms the largest part of any new seat.

There are 58 disappearing seats across the country, shown in the table below:

Old SeatPartyCurrent MPCounty/Area
AberavonLABStephen KinnockWest Glamorgan (Wales)
AberconwyCONGuto BebbClwyd (Wales)
Aberdeenshire West and KincardineCONAndrew BowieGrampian (Scotland)
Airdrie and ShottsSNPNeil GrayGlasgow area (Scotland)
Antrim SouthDUPPaul GirvanAntrim (Northern Ireland)
ArfonPlaidHywel WilliamsGwynedd (Wales)
Ayrshire CentralSNPPhilippa WhitfordAyrshire and Lanark (Scotland)
Birmingham Perry BarrLABKhalid MahmoodBirmingham (West Midlands)
Bradford EastLABImran HussainWest Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Cardiff CentralLABJo StevensSouth Glamorgan (Wales)
Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthCONSimon HartDyfed (Wales)
Chelsea and FulhamCONGreg HandsHammersmith and Fulham (London)
Cornwall NorthCONScott MannCornwall (South West)
DelynLABDavid HansonClwyd (Wales)
Derbyshire MidCONPauline LathamDerbyshire (East Midlands)
Dorset NorthCONSimon HoareDorset (South West)
Dudley NorthLABIan AustinBlack Country (West Midlands)
Dulwich and West NorwoodLABHelen HayesLambeth (London)
Durham, City ofLABRoberta Blackman-WoodsDurham (North East)
Edinburgh South WestSNPJoanna CherryEdinburgh area (Scotland)
Erith and ThamesmeadLABTeresa PearceBexley (London)
Faversham and Kent MidCONHelen WhatelyKent (South East)
Finchley and Golders GreenCONMike FreerBarnet (London)
Glasgow CentralSNPAlison ThewlissGlasgow area (Scotland)
GowerLABTonia AntoniazziWest Glamorgan (Wales)
Great GrimsbyLABMelanie OnnHumber area (Yorks/Humber)
Hackney North and Stoke NewingtonLABDiane AbbottHackney (London)
Haltemprice and HowdenCONDavid DavisHumber area (Yorks/Humber)
Herefordshire NorthCONBill WigginHereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
IslwynLABChris EvansGwent (Wales)
Kenilworth and SouthamCONJeremy WrightWarwickshire (West Midlands)
Lancaster and FleetwoodLABCat SmithLancashire (North West)
Leeds WestLABRachel ReevesWest Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Leyton and WansteadLABJohn CryerWaltham Forest (London)
Liverpool WaltonLABDan CardenMerseyside (North West)
Meon ValleyCONGeorge HollingberyHampshire (South East)
Middlesbrough South and Cleveland EastCONSimon ClarkeTeesside (North East)
MontgomeryshireCONGlyn DaviesPowys (Wales)
Newcastle upon Tyne NorthLABCatherine McKinnellNewcastle area (North East)
Newport EastLABJessica MordenGwent (Wales)
Nottingham EastLABChris LeslieNottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Ochil and South PerthshireCONLuke GrahamCentral (Scotland)
Penistone and StocksbridgeLABAngela SmithSouth Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
PontypriddLABOwen SmithMid Glamorgan (Wales)
Poplar and LimehouseLABJim FitzpatrickTower Hamlets (London)
Ribble ValleyCONNigel EvansLancashire (North West)
RochdaleLABTony LloydEastern Manchester (North West)
Ross Skye and LochaberSNPIan BlackfordHighland (Scotland)
StockportLABAnn CoffeyEastern Manchester (North West)
Stockton NorthLABAlex CunninghamTeesside (North East)
StoneCONBill CashStaffordshire (West Midlands)
TattonCONEsther McVeyCheshire (North West)
Tunbridge WellsCONGreg ClarkKent (South East)
Walsall NorthCONEddie HughesBlack Country (West Midlands)
WansbeckLABIan LaveryNorthumberland (North East)
Wirral SouthLABAlison McGovernMerseyside (North West)
WithamCONPriti PatelEssex (Anglia)
WorkingtonLABSue HaymanCumbria (North West)

If an MP's name is shown here it does not mean that he or she will stop being an MP at the next election. But they have to change the precise area which they represent, and they may be subject to their party's reselection process.

Switching seats

Some new seats have clear predecessor seats, but the boundary changes are large enough that the new seat contains many voters with a different political outlook. This can cause the new seat to have a different predicted party winner from its predecessor. Such seats are called "switching seats", and there are 40 of them:

Old seatOld
Party
Current MPNew seatNew PartyNew
Majority
County/Area
Barrow and FurnessLABJohn WoodcockBarrow and FurnessCON829Cumbria (North West)
BedfordLABMohammad YasinBedfordCON9Bedfordshire (Anglia)
Bolton WestCONChris GreenBolton WestLAB2,043Western Manchester (North West)
Brighton KemptownLABLloyd Russell-MoyleBrighton Kemptown and SeahavenCON4,891East Sussex (South East)
Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossLIBJamie StoneHighland NorthSNP908Highland (Scotland)
Camborne and RedruthCONGeorge EusticeFalmouth, Camborne and RedruthLAB3Cornwall (South West)
CanterburyLABRosie DuffieldCanterbury and FavershamCON3,510Kent (South East)
Carmarthen East and DinefwrPlaidJonathan EdwardsCarmarthenLAB622Dyfed (Wales)
Carshalton and WallingtonLIBTom BrakeCarshalton and WallingtonCON739Sutton (London)
Cities of London and WestminsterCONMark FieldCities of London and WestminsterLAB1,019City of Westminster (London)
Clwyd SouthLABSusan Elan JonesClwyd South and North MontgomeryshireCON2,459Clwyd (Wales)
CopelandCONTrudy HarrisonCumbria WestLAB9,931Cumbria (North West)
Coventry SouthLABJames CunninghamCoventry South and KenilworthCON4,466Coventry and Solihull (West Midlands)
Crewe and NantwichLABLaura SmithCrewe and NantwichCON1,410Cheshire (North West)
Croydon CentralLABSarah JonesCroydon South EastCON1,830Croydon (London)
Derby SouthLABMargaret BeckettDerby EastCON2,785Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Down NorthMINLady Sylvia HermonDown NorthDUP3,928Down (Northern Ireland)
Edinburgh EastSNPTommy SheppardEdinburgh EastLAB2,595Edinburgh area (Scotland)
Edinburgh WestLIBChristine JardineEdinburgh WestSNP687Edinburgh area (Scotland)
Glasgow EastSNPDavid LindenGlasgow EastLAB79Glasgow area (Scotland)
Harrow EastCONBob BlackmanHarrow NorthLAB2,718Harrow (London)
KeighleyLABJohn GroganKeighleyCON1,522West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
KensingtonLABEmma Dent CoadKensington and ChelseaCON5,110Kensington and Chelsea (London)
LincolnLABKaren LeeLincoln and North HykehamCON140Lincolnshire (East Midlands)
MidlothianLABDanielle RowleyMidlothian and Upper TweeddaleSNP1,202Edinburgh area (Scotland)
Morecambe and LunesdaleCONDavid MorrisLancaster and MorecambeLAB6,446Lancashire (North West)
Morley and OutwoodCONAndrea JenkynsBatley and MorleyLAB4,804West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Motherwell and WishawSNPMarion FellowsLanarkshire North EastLAB586Glasgow area (Scotland)
Newcastle-under-LymeLABPaul FarrellyNewcastle-under-LymeCON2,592Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Norwich NorthCONChloe SmithNorwich NorthLAB1,979Norfolk (Anglia)
Oxford West and AbingdonLIBLayla MoranAbingdon and Oxford NorthCON2,311Oxfordshire (South East)
PudseyCONStuart AndrewPudseyLAB15,364West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Southampton ItchenCONRoyston SmithSouthampton ItchenLAB3,337Hampshire (South East)
TelfordCONLucy AllanTelfordLAB1,027Shropshire (West Midlands)
Uxbridge and South RuislipCONBoris JohnsonUxbridge and NortholtLAB489Hillingdon (London)
Vale of GlamorganCONAlun CairnsVale of Glamorgan EastLAB714South Glamorgan (Wales)
Warwick and LeamingtonLABMatt WesternWarwick and LeamingtonCON1,958Warwickshire (West Midlands)
WatfordCONRichard HarringtonWatfordLAB124Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Weaver ValeLABMike AmesburyWeaver ValeCON1,121Cheshire (North West)
Westmorland and LonsdaleLIBTim FarronWestmorland and LonsdaleCON2,316Cumbria (North West)

Notable seats changing hands include many Conservative losses such as the Cities of London and Westminster, the recent by-election gain in Copeland, Ed Balls' old seat of Morley and Outwood, and Norwich North. The Conservatives are slated to regain Kensington

Freshly created new seats

Although the overall change is to reduce the number of seats, there are a few new seats which are freshly created. This means that the new seat is made up of a number of small fragments from various old seats. If the largest component of the new seat is not the largest part of its corresponding old seat, then the seat is defined to be "fresh". There are eight fresh new seats:

New SeatPartyMajorityCounty/Area
Bramhall and WilmslowCON12,784Eastern Manchester (North West)
Falkirk SouthSNP3,638Central (Scotland)
Great Grimsby North and BartonCON6,578Humber area (Yorks/Humber)
Isle of Wight WestCON9,462Hampshire (South East)
Leyton and StratfordLAB34,177Newham (London)
Middlesbrough South and ThornabyLAB3,727Teesside (North East)
Shoreditch and Bethnal GreenLAB36,814Hackney (London)
Weald of KentCON25,391Kent (South East)

England

The Boundary Commission for England published final proposals on 10 September 2018.

The net effect of the changes for England is shown in the following table:

 Old SeatsNew SeatsChangeDisappearSwitch OutSwitch InFresh
CON297288−9−17−13174
LAB227207−20−22−14133
LIB85−30−300
UKIP0000000
Green1100000
Total533501−32−39−32327

Full details are available on the area pages: North East, North West, Yorks/Humber, West Midlands, East Midlands, Anglia, South West, London, South East

Wales

The Boundary Commission for Wales published final proposals on 10 September 2018.

The net effect of the changes for Wales is shown in the following table:

 Old SeatsNew SeatsChangeDisappearSwitch OutSwitch InFresh
CON85−3−3−110
LAB2822−6−7−120
LIB0000000
UKIP0000000
Green0000000
Plaid42−2−1−100
Total4029−11−11−330

Visit the Wales Area page for more details.

Scotland

The Boundary Commission for Scotland published its final proposals on 10 September 2018.

The net effect of the changes for Scotland is shown in the following table:

 Old SeatsNew SeatsChangeDisappearSwitch OutSwitch InFresh
CON1311−2−2000
LAB7920−130
LIB42−20−200
UKIP0000000
Green0000000
SNP3531−4−5−331
Total5953−6−7−661

Visit the Scotland Area page for more details.

Northern Ireland

Final proposals for new parliamentary boundaries were published by the Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland on 10 September 2018. Analysis of these final proposals by Electoral Calculus, assuming that voting patterns remain stable, indicates the the Democratic Unionist Party has improved its position from the initial proposals. The DUP is now predicted to keep its ten seats and continue to be the largest NI party at Westminster. The republican Sinn Féin is also likely to keep its seven seats. The total number of seats in the province decreases from 18 to 17.

The main change is that the DUP gain Down North from independent MP Sylvia Hermon. But the DUP also lose one seat as two of their existing seats (Antrim South and Lagan Valley) are merged together in the new seat of Antrim South.

PartyOld SeatsNew SeatsChangeCommentary
DUP10100Lose (old) "Antrim South", gain "Down North" from MIN
SF770No change
MIN10−1Lose "Down North" to DUP
Total1817−1 

Visit the Northern Ireland Area page for more details.

Seat impact varies with swing

The graph below show the impact of the new boundaries for various outcomes of the next election. Based on current opinion polls (showing a 3pc Labour lead as at October 2017), it considers a range of swings from Conservative to Labour running from −5pc (strong Conservative gain) to +5pc (strong Labour gain). The blue line shows the extra seats which the Conservatives would win from Labour due to the new boundaries. The background shading indicates the likely outcome of the general election under the old boundaries.

New Boundaries: impact on seats

The graphic shows that the Conservatives gain about ten seats from Labour due to the new boundaries at current opinion poll levels, or even if Labour increase their lead. But if the Conservatives do better in the polls, then paradoxically they gain less from the new boundaries. If the Conservatives were on course to win the general election, then the "boost" from new boundaries would be only about five seats.

These relatively modest impacts may diminish the political motivation for pushing through these changes.

History of revisions.

The data presented has been revised at various times.

See also the information about the now-abandoned "Sixth Periodic review", to compare against the 2018 Review.