Constituency List: Wales



Worsley and Eccles

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:Michael Wheeler  (LAB)
County/Area:Central Manchester (North West)
Electorate:78,643
Turnout: 54.1%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
LAB20,277 47.7% 31.3%
Reform9,186 21.6% 31.4%
CON6,791 16.0% 15.6%
Green3,283 7.7% 9.6%
LIB1,851 4.4% 9.1%
OTH689 1.6% 1.3%
MIN466 1.1% 1.7%
LAB Majority11,091 26.1% 0.1%
Pred Maj
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Chance of winning
LAB
47%
Reform
49%
CON
3%
Green
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%
MIN
0%

Worthing East and Shoreham

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:Tom Rutland  (LAB)
County/Area:West Sussex (South East)
Electorate:74,738
Turnout: 65.7%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
LAB22,120 45.1% 32.1%
CON12,601 25.7% 22.3%
Reform7,169 14.6% 24.6%
Green3,246 6.6% 9.4%
LIB3,180 6.5% 10.2%
OTH762 1.6% 1.4%
LAB Majority9,519 19.4% 7.5%
Pred Maj
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Chance of winning
LAB
60%
CON
16%
Reform
22%
Green
0%
LIB
1%
OTH
0%

Worthing West

Prediction: CON gain from LAB

MP at 2024:Beccy Cooper  (LAB)
County/Area:West Sussex (South East)
Electorate:77,038
Turnout: 66.2%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
LAB20,519 40.2% 27.7%
CON16,570 32.5% 29.4%
Reform7,562 14.8% 24.0%
Green3,274 6.4% 9.2%
LIB2,708 5.3% 9.0%
OTH364 0.7% 0.7%
LAB Majority3,949 7.7% 1.7%
Pred Maj
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Chance of winning
LAB
34%
CON
44%
Reform
21%
Green
0%
LIB
1%
OTH
0%

Wrekin, The

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:Mark Pritchard  (CON)
County/Area:Shropshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:78,942
Turnout: 63.4%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
CON16,320 32.6% 27.4%
LAB15,437 30.9% 20.0%
Reform9,920 19.8% 30.5%
LIB4,757 9.5% 12.1%
Green3,028 6.1% 9.0%
OTH558 1.1% 0.9%
CON Majority883 1.8% 3.2%
Pred Maj
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Chance of winning
CON
37%
LAB
11%
Reform
52%
LIB
1%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Wycombe

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:Emma Reynolds  (LAB)
County/Area:Buckinghamshire (South East)
Electorate:73,846
Turnout: 60.4%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
LAB16,035 35.9% 25.7%
CON11,444 25.6% 23.5%
Reform4,769 10.7% 21.4%
LIB4,236 9.5% 13.6%
MIN3,344 7.5% 5.3%
OTH2,616 5.9% 2.1%
Green2,193 4.9% 8.5%
LAB Majority4,591 10.3% 2.2%
Pred Maj
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Chance of winning
LAB
41%
CON
30%
Reform
23%
LIB
5%
MIN
0%
OTH
0%
Green
1%

Wyre Forest

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:Mark Garnier  (CON)
County/Area:Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate:77,394
Turnout: 58.3%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
CON14,489 32.1% 27.5%
LAB13,677 30.3% 19.4%
Reform9,682 21.4% 32.5%
LIB2,809 6.2% 10.4%
Green2,443 5.4% 8.3%
OTH2,058 4.6% 2.0%
CON Majority812 1.8% 5.0%
Pred Maj
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Chance of winning
CON
32%
LAB
10%
Reform
57%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Wythenshawe and Sale East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:Mike Kane  (LAB)
County/Area:Central Manchester (North West)
Electorate:77,765
Turnout: 50.3%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
LAB20,596 52.6% 33.3%
Reform5,986 15.3% 27.3%
CON5,392 13.8% 14.1%
Green4,133 10.6% 11.9%
LIB1,985 5.1% 9.8%
MIN714 1.8% 2.9%
OTH326 0.8% 0.7%
LAB Majority14,610 37.3% 6.0%
Pred Maj
Seat details with ward map, results and predictions. Top
Chance of winning
LAB
66%
Reform
31%
CON
2%
Green
1%
LIB
0%
MIN
0%
OTH
0%

Yeovil

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:Adam Dance  (LIB)
County/Area:Somerset (South West)
Electorate:79,700
Turnout: 61.4%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
LIB23,765 48.5% 32.9%
CON11,497 23.5% 22.5%
Reform7,677 15.7% 27.9%
LAB3,002 6.1% 8.8%
Green2,403 4.9% 7.1%
OTH608 1.2% 0.8%
LIB Majority12,268 25.1% 4.9%
Pred Maj
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Chance of winning
LIB
56%
CON
13%
Reform
31%
LAB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

York Central

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:Rachael Maskell  (LAB)
County/Area:North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:79,557
Turnout: 54.5%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
LAB24,537 56.6% 38.6%
CON5,383 12.4% 11.5%
Green5,185 12.0% 16.4%
Reform4,721 10.9% 20.0%
LIB3,051 7.0% 12.0%
OTH446 1.0% 1.5%
LAB Majority19,154 44.2% 18.6%
Pred Maj
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Chance of winning
LAB
87%
CON
1%
Green
3%
Reform
9%
LIB
1%
OTH
0%

York Outer

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:Luke Charters  (LAB)
County/Area:North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:76,228
Turnout: 67.0%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
LAB23,161 45.3% 30.6%
CON13,770 26.9% 22.0%
Reform5,912 11.6% 25.1%
LIB5,496 10.8% 13.6%
Green2,212 4.3% 7.5%
OTH555 1.1% 1.1%
LAB Majority9,391 18.4% 5.5%
Pred Maj
Seat details with ward map, results and predictions. Top
Chance of winning
LAB
56%
CON
16%
Reform
26%
LIB
1%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Aberafan Maesteg

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:Stephen Kinnock  (LAB)
County/Area:West Glamorgan (Wales)
Electorate:72,580
Turnout: 49.3%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
LAB17,838 49.9% 26.9%
Reform7,484 20.9% 27.2%
Plaid4,719 13.2% 15.0%
CON2,903 8.1% 14.0%
Green1,094 3.1% 7.0%
LIB916 2.6% 7.9%
OTH801 2.2% 2.0%
LAB Majority10,354 29.0% 0.3%
Pred Maj
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Chance of winning
LAB
45%
Reform
45%
Plaid
5%
CON
4%
Green
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%

Alyn and Deeside

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:Mark Tami  (LAB)
County/Area:Clwyd (Wales)
Electorate:75,790
Turnout: 57.3%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
LAB18,395 42.4% 24.7%
Reform9,601 22.1% 27.3%
CON7,892 18.2% 21.1%
LIB2,065 4.8% 8.9%
Plaid1,938 4.5% 9.0%
Green1,926 4.4% 6.4%
OTH1,575 3.6% 2.5%
LAB Majority8,794 20.3% 2.7%
Pred Maj
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Chance of winning
LAB
31%
Reform
49%
CON
19%
LIB
0%
Plaid
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Bangor Aberconwy

Prediction: CON gain from LAB

MP at 2024:Claire Hughes  (LAB)
County/Area:Clwyd (Wales)
Electorate:69,023
Turnout: 60.4%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
LAB14,008 33.6% 20.6%
Plaid9,112 21.9% 21.5%
CON9,036 21.7% 21.8%
Reform6,091 14.6% 21.2%
LIB1,524 3.7% 7.8%
Green1,361 3.3% 5.5%
OTH528 1.3% 1.5%
LAB Majority4,896 11.8% 0.4%
Pred Maj
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Chance of winning
LAB
21%
Plaid
26%
CON
27%
Reform
25%
LIB
1%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:Nick Smith  (LAB)
County/Area:Gwent (Wales)
Electorate:70,153
Turnout: 42.7%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
LAB16,027 53.6% 27.1%
Plaid3,844 12.8% 15.4%
CON3,776 12.6% 16.5%
OTH2,718 9.1% 3.5%
Green1,719 5.7% 8.7%
LIB1,268 4.2% 9.7%
MIN570 1.9% 1.5%
Reform0 0.0% 17.7%
LAB Majority12,183 40.7% 9.4%
Pred Maj
Seat details with ward map, results and predictions. Top
Chance of winning
LAB
61%
Plaid
9%
CON
11%
OTH
0%
Green
1%
LIB
1%
MIN
0%
Reform
17%

Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe

Prediction: Reform gain from LIB

MP at 2024:David Chadwick  (LIB)
County/Area:Powys (Wales)
Electorate:73,114
Turnout: 63.7%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
LIB13,736 29.5% 21.0%
CON12,264 26.3% 25.2%
LAB9,904 21.3% 13.9%
Reform6,567 14.1% 26.3%
Plaid2,280 4.9% 7.4%
Green1,188 2.6% 4.9%
OTH609 1.3% 1.1%
LIB Majority1,472 3.2% 1.1%
Pred Maj
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Chance of winning
LIB
17%
CON
36%
LAB
3%
Reform
43%
Plaid
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Bridgend

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:Chris Elmore  (LAB)
County/Area:Mid Glamorgan (Wales)
Electorate:73,152
Turnout: 56.6%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
LAB16,516 39.9% 22.8%
Reform7,921 19.1% 27.0%
CON6,764 16.3% 21.5%
Plaid3,629 8.8% 8.1%
OTH3,338 8.1% 3.7%
Green1,760 4.3% 7.5%
LIB1,446 3.5% 9.4%
LAB Majority8,595 20.8% 4.2%
Pred Maj
Seat details with ward map, results and predictions. Top
Chance of winning
LAB
27%
Reform
50%
CON
21%
Plaid
1%
OTH
0%
Green
0%
LIB
1%

Caerfyrddin (Carmarthen)

Prediction: Plaid hold

MP at 2024:Ann Davies  (Plaid)
County/Area:Dyfed (Wales)
Electorate:74,003
Turnout: 61.6%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
Plaid15,520 34.0% 28.8%
LAB10,985 24.1% 15.3%
CON8,825 19.4% 20.0%
Reform6,944 15.2% 22.6%
LIB1,461 3.2% 6.7%
Green1,371 3.0% 4.7%
OTH282 0.6% 0.7%
MIN216 0.5% 1.1%
Plaid Majority4,535 9.9% 6.2%
Pred Maj
Seat details with ward map, results and predictions. Top
Chance of winning
Plaid
57%
LAB
6%
CON
15%
Reform
22%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
MIN
0%

Caerphilly

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:Chris Evans  (LAB)
County/Area:Gwent (Wales)
Electorate:72,643
Turnout: 52.6%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
LAB14,538 38.0% 21.9%
Plaid8,119 21.2% 18.2%
Reform7,754 20.3% 25.8%
CON4,385 11.5% 17.9%
LIB1,788 4.7% 8.2%
Green1,650 4.3% 6.5%
OTH0 0.0% 1.4%
LAB Majority6,419 16.8% 3.9%
Pred Maj
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Chance of winning
LAB
27%
Plaid
13%
Reform
47%
CON
13%
LIB
1%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Cardiff East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:Jo Stevens  (LAB)
County/Area:South Glamorgan (Wales)
Electorate:72,873
Turnout: 53.7%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
LAB15,833 40.5% 24.3%
LIB6,736 17.2% 15.4%
Reform4,980 12.7% 17.8%
Green3,916 10.0% 13.4%
CON3,913 10.0% 14.6%
Plaid3,550 9.1% 13.0%
OTH195 0.5% 1.4%
LAB Majority9,097 23.3% 6.5%
Pred Maj
Seat details with ward map, results and predictions. Top
Chance of winning
LAB
53%
LIB
10%
Reform
18%
Green
4%
CON
10%
Plaid
5%
OTH
0%

Cardiff North

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:Anna McMorrin  (LAB)
County/Area:South Glamorgan (Wales)
Electorate:71,335
Turnout: 66.5%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
LAB20,849 43.9% 28.3%
CON9,642 20.3% 22.8%
Reform5,985 12.6% 16.6%
Plaid4,669 9.8% 11.7%
LIB3,168 6.7% 10.2%
Green3,160 6.7% 9.2%
OTH0 0.0% 1.3%
LAB Majority11,207 23.6% 5.5%
Pred Maj
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Chance of winning
LAB
59%
CON
28%
Reform
9%
Plaid
2%
LIB
1%
Green
1%
OTH
0%

Cardiff South and Penarth

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:Stephen Doughty  (LAB)
County/Area:South Glamorgan (Wales)
Electorate:72,613
Turnout: 54.0%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
LAB17,428 44.5% 25.8%
Green5,661 14.5% 14.8%
CON5,459 13.9% 18.4%
Reform4,493 11.5% 16.6%
Plaid3,227 8.2% 12.6%
LIB2,908 7.4% 10.5%
OTH0 0.0% 1.3%
LAB Majority11,767 30.0% 7.5%
Pred Maj
Seat details with ward map, results and predictions. Top
Chance of winning
LAB
56%
Green
7%
CON
19%
Reform
13%
Plaid
4%
LIB
2%
OTH
0%

Cardiff West

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:Alex Barros-Curtis  (LAB)
County/Area:South Glamorgan (Wales)
Electorate:75,473
Turnout: 59.3%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
LAB16,442 36.7% 22.8%
Plaid9,423 21.1% 19.3%
CON6,835 15.3% 19.1%
Reform5,626 12.6% 18.0%
Green3,157 7.1% 9.3%
LIB1,921 4.3% 9.1%
OTH1,353 3.0% 2.2%
LAB Majority7,019 15.7% 3.5%
Pred Maj
Seat details with ward map, results and predictions. Top
Chance of winning
LAB
39%
Plaid
20%
CON
22%
Reform
18%
Green
1%
LIB
1%
OTH
0%

Ceredigion Preseli

Prediction: Plaid hold

MP at 2024:Ben Lake  (Plaid)
County/Area:Dyfed (Wales)
Electorate:75,690
Turnout: 61.2%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
Plaid21,738 46.9% 38.0%
LIB6,949 15.0% 12.1%
LAB5,386 11.6% 9.3%
Reform5,374 11.6% 19.4%
CON4,763 10.3% 14.0%
Green1,864 4.0% 5.2%
MIN228 0.5% 2.0%
Plaid Majority14,789 31.9% 18.7%
Pred Maj
Seat details with ward map, results and predictions. Top
Chance of winning
Plaid
91%
LIB
1%
LAB
0%
Reform
6%
CON
2%
Green
0%
MIN
0%

Clwyd East

Prediction: CON gain from LAB

MP at 2024:Becky Gittins  (LAB)
County/Area:Clwyd (Wales)
Electorate:76,637
Turnout: 62.4%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
LAB18,484 38.7% 21.9%
CON13,862 29.0% 27.4%
Reform7,626 15.9% 26.8%
Plaid3,733 7.8% 8.7%
LIB1,859 3.9% 8.0%
Green1,659 3.5% 5.9%
OTH599 1.3% 1.3%
LAB Majority4,622 9.7% 0.6%
Pred Maj
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Chance of winning
LAB
19%
CON
41%
Reform
40%
Plaid
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Clwyd North

Prediction: CON gain from LAB

MP at 2024:Gill German  (LAB)
County/Area:Clwyd (Wales)
Electorate:75,027
Turnout: 55.5%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
LAB14,794 35.5% 19.1%
CON13,598 32.7% 30.6%
Reform7,000 16.8% 27.5%
Plaid3,159 7.6% 8.2%
LIB1,685 4.0% 7.6%
Green1,391 3.3% 6.0%
OTH0 0.0% 1.0%
LAB Majority1,196 2.9% 3.2%
Pred Maj
Seat details with ward map, results and predictions. Top
Chance of winning
LAB
9%
CON
55%
Reform
36%
Plaid
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Dwyfor Meirionnydd

Prediction: Plaid hold

MP at 2024:Liz Saville Roberts  (Plaid)
County/Area:Gwynedd (Wales)
Electorate:73,042
Turnout: 55.3%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
Plaid21,788 53.9% 43.0%
LAB5,912 14.6% 10.7%
Reform4,857 12.0% 19.5%
CON4,712 11.7% 13.2%
Green1,448 3.6% 5.7%
LIB1,381 3.4% 6.9%
OTH297 0.7% 1.0%
Plaid Majority15,876 39.3% 23.5%
Pred Maj
Seat details with ward map, results and predictions. Top
Chance of winning
Plaid
95%
LAB
0%
Reform
4%
CON
1%
Green
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%

Gower

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:Tonia Antoniazzi  (LAB)
County/Area:West Glamorgan (Wales)
Electorate:76,123
Turnout: 62.0%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
LAB20,480 43.4% 26.4%
CON8,913 18.9% 21.4%
Reform8,530 18.1% 22.6%
Plaid3,942 8.3% 11.8%
LIB2,593 5.5% 9.2%
Green2,488 5.3% 7.1%
OTH283 0.6% 1.4%
LAB Majority11,567 24.5% 3.8%
Pred Maj
Seat details with ward map, results and predictions. Top
Chance of winning
LAB
48%
CON
23%
Reform
26%
Plaid
2%
LIB
1%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Llanelli

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:Nia Griffith  (LAB)
County/Area:Dyfed (Wales)
Electorate:71,536
Turnout: 57.0%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
LAB12,751 31.3% 18.7%
Reform11,247 27.6% 30.1%
Plaid9,511 23.3% 20.9%
CON4,275 10.5% 16.0%
LIB1,254 3.1% 7.4%
Green1,106 2.7% 5.0%
OTH600 1.5% 1.7%
LAB Majority1,504 3.7% 9.2%
Pred Maj
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Chance of winning
LAB
11%
Reform
66%
Plaid
15%
CON
7%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:Gerald Jones  (LAB)
County/Area:Mid Glamorgan (Wales)
Electorate:74,460
Turnout: 47.3%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
LAB15,791 44.8% 24.7%
Reform8,344 23.7% 27.7%
Plaid4,768 13.5% 14.7%
CON2,687 7.6% 14.2%
LIB1,276 3.6% 7.8%
Green1,231 3.5% 7.3%
OTH587 1.7% 1.3%
MIN531 1.5% 2.3%
LAB Majority7,447 21.1% 3.0%
Pred Maj
Seat details with ward map, results and predictions. Top
Chance of winning
LAB
36%
Reform
53%
Plaid
5%
CON
5%
LIB
1%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
MIN
0%

Monmouthshire

Prediction: CON gain from LAB

MP at 2024:Catherine Fookes  (LAB)
County/Area:Gwent (Wales)
Electorate:74,823
Turnout: 68.0%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
LAB21,010 41.3% 24.1%
CON17,672 34.8% 31.3%
Reform5,438 10.7% 21.9%
Green2,357 4.6% 7.0%
LIB2,279 4.5% 8.8%
Plaid1,273 2.5% 5.6%
OTH815 1.6% 1.3%
LAB Majority3,338 6.6% 7.1%
Pred Maj
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Chance of winning
LAB
22%
CON
61%
Reform
17%
Green
0%
LIB
0%
Plaid
0%
OTH
0%

Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:Steve Witherden  (LAB)
County/Area:Powys (Wales)
Electorate:74,039
Turnout: 58.4%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
LAB12,709 29.4% 16.5%
Reform8,894 20.6% 31.6%
CON7,775 18.0% 20.0%
LIB6,470 15.0% 12.9%
Plaid5,667 13.1% 12.1%
Green1,744 4.0% 5.9%
OTH0 0.0% 0.9%
LAB Majority3,815 8.8% 11.5%
Pred Maj
Seat details with ward map, results and predictions. Top
Chance of winning
LAB
6%
Reform
75%
CON
14%
LIB
2%
Plaid
2%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Neath and Swansea East

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:Carolyn Harris  (LAB)
County/Area:West Glamorgan (Wales)
Electorate:76,291
Turnout: 52.6%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
LAB16,797 41.8% 24.0%
Reform10,170 25.3% 28.5%
Plaid5,350 13.3% 14.9%
CON3,765 9.4% 14.6%
LIB2,344 5.8% 9.0%
Green1,711 4.3% 7.6%
OTH0 0.0% 1.4%
LAB Majority6,627 16.5% 4.5%
Pred Maj
Seat details with ward map, results and predictions. Top
Chance of winning
LAB
31%
Reform
58%
Plaid
5%
CON
5%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Newport East

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:Jessica Morden  (LAB)
County/Area:Gwent (Wales)
Electorate:76,845
Turnout: 50.1%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
LAB16,370 42.5% 23.5%
Reform7,361 19.1% 25.8%
CON6,487 16.8% 20.8%
Plaid2,239 5.8% 10.2%
Green2,092 5.4% 7.4%
LIB2,045 5.3% 9.5%
OTH1,937 5.0% 2.9%
LAB Majority9,009 23.4% 2.4%
Pred Maj
Seat details with ward map, results and predictions. Top
Chance of winning
LAB
32%
Reform
45%
CON
20%
Plaid
1%
Green
0%
LIB
1%
OTH
0%

Newport West and Islwyn

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:Ruth Jones  (LAB)
County/Area:Gwent (Wales)
Electorate:75,781
Turnout: 55.4%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
LAB17,409 41.5% 24.3%
Reform8,541 20.4% 25.3%
CON6,710 16.0% 20.5%
Plaid3,529 8.4% 11.0%
LIB2,087 5.0% 9.3%
Green2,078 5.0% 7.1%
OTH1,597 3.8% 2.6%
LAB Majority8,868 21.1% 1.0%
Pred Maj
Seat details with ward map, results and predictions. Top
Chance of winning
LAB
34%
Reform
43%
CON
20%
Plaid
2%
LIB
1%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Pembrokeshire Mid and South

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:Henry Tufnell  (LAB)
County/Area:Dyfed (Wales)
Electorate:79,031
Turnout: 59.0%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
LAB16,505 35.4% 19.2%
CON14,627 31.4% 27.5%
Reform7,828 16.8% 29.7%
Plaid2,962 6.4% 8.6%
LIB2,372 5.1% 8.3%
Green1,654 3.5% 5.5%
OTH681 1.5% 1.2%
LAB Majority1,878 4.0% 2.2%
Pred Maj
Seat details with ward map, results and predictions. Top
Chance of winning
LAB
11%
CON
38%
Reform
50%
Plaid
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Pontypridd

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:Alex Davies-Jones  (LAB)
County/Area:Mid Glamorgan (Wales)
Electorate:75,951
Turnout: 51.8%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
LAB16,225 41.2% 24.5%
Reform7,823 19.9% 24.2%
Plaid5,275 13.4% 14.6%
CON3,775 9.6% 15.1%
OTH2,809 7.1% 3.6%
Green1,865 4.7% 8.5%
LIB1,606 4.1% 9.5%
LAB Majority8,402 21.3% 0.3%
Pred Maj
Seat details with ward map, results and predictions. Top
Chance of winning
LAB
41%
Reform
41%
Plaid
6%
CON
9%
OTH
0%
Green
1%
LIB
1%

Rhondda and Ogmore

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:Chris Bryant  (LAB)
County/Area:Mid Glamorgan (Wales)
Electorate:74,493
Turnout: 48.1%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
LAB17,118 47.8% 26.2%
Reform9,328 26.1% 29.5%
Plaid5,198 14.5% 15.3%
CON2,050 5.7% 12.9%
Green1,177 3.3% 7.3%
LIB935 2.6% 7.5%
OTH0 0.0% 1.4%
LAB Majority7,790 21.8% 3.3%
Pred Maj
Seat details with ward map, results and predictions. Top
Chance of winning
LAB
37%
Reform
56%
Plaid
4%
CON
3%
Green
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%

Swansea West

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:Torsten Bell  (LAB)
County/Area:West Glamorgan (Wales)
Electorate:74,236
Turnout: 48.0%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
LAB14,761 41.4% 23.1%
Reform6,246 17.5% 22.9%
LIB4,367 12.2% 12.5%
Plaid4,105 11.5% 14.4%
CON3,536 9.9% 15.4%
Green2,305 6.5% 10.0%
OTH337 0.9% 1.7%
LAB Majority8,515 23.9% 0.2%
Pred Maj
Seat details with ward map, results and predictions. Top
Chance of winning
LAB
40%
Reform
40%
LIB
3%
Plaid
6%
CON
10%
Green
1%
OTH
0%

Torfaen

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:Nick Thomas-Symonds  (LAB)
County/Area:Gwent (Wales)
Electorate:71,738
Turnout: 49.8%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
LAB15,176 42.5% 23.2%
Reform7,854 22.0% 27.9%
CON5,737 16.1% 20.7%
Plaid2,571 7.2% 10.6%
Green1,705 4.8% 6.6%
LIB1,644 4.6% 8.7%
OTH1,018 2.9% 2.3%
LAB Majority7,322 20.5% 4.7%
Pred Maj
Seat details with ward map, results and predictions. Top
Chance of winning
LAB
29%
Reform
52%
CON
18%
Plaid
1%
Green
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%

Vale of Glamorgan

Prediction: CON gain from LAB

MP at 2024:Kanishka Narayan  (LAB)
County/Area:South Glamorgan (Wales)
Electorate:74,374
Turnout: 61.6%

Party2024 Votes2024 SharePredicted Votes
LAB17,740 38.7% 22.1%
CON13,524 29.5% 28.8%
Reform6,973 15.2% 24.9%
Plaid3,245 7.1% 7.5%
Green1,881 4.1% 7.0%
LIB1,612 3.5% 8.1%
OTH851 1.9% 1.6%
LAB Majority4,216 9.2% 3.9%
Pred Maj
Seat details with ward map, results and predictions. Top
Chance of winning
LAB
18%
CON
51%
Reform
31%
Plaid
0%
Green
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%