Electoral Calculus undertook a project to create a political segmentation of the UK voting population by political attitudes. This has become more relevant in recent years since the traditional single left-right axis no longer captures the reality of the public's political attitudes.
In the first stage of the project, respondents were asked a number of political questions to determine every respondent's position on each of three separate political axes:
Each respondent can then be plotted on a three-dimensional axis to represent their political position. Groups of similar voters can be formed using segmentation analysis to create seven political 'tribes' of like-minded voters. Full details. In summary, these tribes are:
|Strong Left||Traditionalists||Progressives||Centrists||Somewheres||Kind Young Capitalists||Strong Right|
|Left intelligentsia: very left-wing, globalist, socially liberal||Traditional working class: pretty left-wing, moderate on national/social issues||Blairites: mildly left-wing but quite globalist and socially liberal||Mr and Mrs Average: average opinions on all three axes||Conservative working class: slightly left-wing, but strongly nationalist and socially conservative||Modern yuppies: quite right-wing, but mildly globalist and socially liberal||Conservative heartland: very right-wing, notionalist and socially conservative|
Using regression techniques, we also estimated the dominant tribe in each district council ward and each census output area. The example results for London show the diversity of political opinions in the capital.
The tribe analysis was picked up by a number of media outlets, including the Daily Telegraph. Read more about our data services, custom solutions and regression polling.
Electoral Calculus made the most accurate pre-poll prediction of the result of the December 2019 General Election. Our final prediction correctly predicted a Conservative victory with a substantial majority.
Electoral Calculus made vote share and seat predictions for the last elections from Britain to the EU Parliament in May 2019. We used our regression analysis of our own commissioned polls, on behalf of Remain United.