North West: Majority Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 37.5%32 20.1%031-311
LAB 47.3%42 55.4%300+3072
LIB 7.9%1 5.7%10+12
Reform 3.9%0 11.3%00+00
Green 2.5%0 6.2%00+00
Other 1.1%0 1.4%00+00

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Liverpool Walton, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Westmorland and Lonsdale, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Ribble South (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Copeland (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2019
Win
Pred
Win
2578Liverpool Walton Dan Carden62,62865.14.781.41.96.44.70.01.0LABLAB
3577Manchester Gorton Afzal Khan76,41958.34.480.02.06.56.20.01.0LABLAB
5575Liverpool Riverside Kim Johnson80,31065.74.476.83.06.68.00.01.1LABLAB
6574Bootle Peter Dowd74,83265.75.777.92.47.75.30.01.0LABLAB
8572Liverpool West Derby Ian Byrne65,64067.05.877.52.38.24.80.01.4LABLAB
11569Knowsley George Howarth84,08265.35.276.22.58.76.00.01.4LABLAB
14566Manchester Central Lucy Powell92,24756.75.775.42.67.77.30.01.4LABLAB
25555Manchester Withington Jeff Smith76,53069.27.170.45.57.98.30.00.8LABLAB
26554Liverpool Wavertree Paula Barker63,45868.46.569.75.59.37.70.01.4LABLAB
27553Chorley Lindsay Hoyle78,17751.06.869.93.09.78.70.01.9LABLAB
28552Garston and Halewood Maria Eagle76,11670.17.570.24.910.25.90.01.4LABLAB
30550Blackley and Broughton Graham Stringer73,37252.69.371.42.19.95.70.01.6LABLAB
42538Blackburn Kate Hollern71,23462.813.270.71.79.24.00.01.2LABLAB
45535Halton Derek Twigg71,93064.211.667.92.810.55.80.01.3LABLAB
49531Wallasey Angela Eagle66,31070.112.768.52.99.15.60.01.1LABLAB
50530Preston Mark Hendrick59,67256.612.668.32.99.55.30.01.3LABLAB
55525Salford and Eccles Rebecca Long-Bailey82,20261.611.766.03.110.47.40.01.4LABLAB
65515Birkenhead Mick Whitley63,76266.47.959.04.213.811.30.03.9LABLAB
66514Stretford and Urmston Kate Green72,37269.215.766.72.48.45.20.01.6LABLAB
69511St Helens South and Whiston Marie Rimmer79,06163.610.660.74.313.58.80.02.1LABLAB
78502Oldham West and Royton Jim McMahon72,99960.915.564.42.411.64.60.01.5LABLAB
87493Bolton South East Yasmin Qureshi69,16358.715.663.02.512.34.80.01.8LABLAB
91489Wythenshawe and Sale East Mike Kane76,31358.714.961.13.311.28.10.01.5LABLAB
97483St Helens North Conor McGinn75,59362.913.959.13.913.77.50.01.8LABLAB
99481Sefton Central Bill Esterson69,76072.916.861.73.910.26.40.01.1LABLAB
101479Denton and Reddish Andrew Gwynne66,23458.315.960.62.912.26.80.01.6LABLAB
111469Rochdale Tony Lloyd78,90960.117.160.43.712.25.20.01.3LABLAB
114466Ashton under Lyne Angela Rayner67,97856.817.360.42.612.35.90.01.5LABLAB
118462Stockport Navendu Mishra65,39163.814.657.46.012.18.40.01.5LABLAB
129451Wigan Lisa Nandy75,68059.517.258.63.313.36.10.01.6LABLAB
146434Makerfield Yvonne Fovargue74,19059.717.756.93.314.26.00.01.9LABLAB
148432Stalybridge and Hyde Jonathan Reynolds73,06458.019.158.03.112.06.30.01.5LABLAB
149431Ellesmere Port and Neston Justin Madders70,32769.318.657.53.611.47.60.01.4LABLAB
156424Worsley and Eccles South Barbara Keeley75,21959.419.557.63.211.76.40.01.6LABLAB
177403Lancashire West Rosie Cooper73,34771.823.059.53.09.34.40.00.8LABLAB
182398Chester, City of Chris Matheson76,05771.722.257.84.69.14.90.01.4LABLAB
189391Warrington North Charlotte Nichols72,23564.621.455.93.811.96.00.01.1LABLAB
190390Bury South Christian Wakeford75,15266.921.055.33.312.26.10.02.0CONLAB
191389Lancaster and Fleetwood Cat Smith70,05964.519.152.94.312.19.90.01.7LABLAB
194386Leigh James Grundy77,41760.721.954.63.313.45.00.01.8CONLAB
195385Wirral South Alison McGovern57,28076.021.354.04.511.07.90.01.3LABLAB
200380Heywood and Middleton Chris Clarkson80,16259.222.054.43.213.15.90.01.5CONLAB
216364Bury North James Daly68,80268.124.655.23.010.65.20.01.3CONLAB
219361Bolton North East Mark Logan67,56464.524.755.03.111.04.80.01.3CONLAB
222358Oldham East and Saddleworth Debbie Abrahams72,12064.021.751.75.314.25.30.01.8LABLAB
224356Wirral West Margaret Greenwood55,55077.324.654.44.510.05.50.01.0LABLAB
225355Weaver Vale Mike Amesbury70,55171.923.553.34.511.46.30.01.1LABLAB
228352Hyndburn Sara Britcliffe70,84259.924.553.53.112.35.00.01.5CONLAB
231349Blackpool South Scott Benton57,69056.824.653.42.812.35.20.01.6CONLAB
244336Workington Mark Jenkinson61,37067.824.150.74.614.25.50.00.9CONLAB
245335Warrington South Andy Carter86,01572.024.551.05.512.15.40.01.4CONLAB
251329Barrow and Furness Simon Fell70,15865.625.851.63.912.15.50.01.1CONLAB
253327Copeland Trudy Harrison61,69368.926.352.13.711.95.30.00.7CONLAB
266314Burnley Antony Higginbotham64,34560.622.046.36.316.96.40.02.0CONLAB
276304Pendle Andrew Stephenson65,28968.126.649.94.212.95.00.01.4CONLAB
281299Bolton West Chris Green73,19167.426.248.94.712.95.60.01.7CONLAB
282298Carlisle John Stevenson65,10565.926.549.24.612.85.40.01.5CONLAB
283297Morecambe and Lunesdale David Morris67,39767.225.648.05.013.17.00.01.4CONLAB
293287Rossendale and Darwen Jake Berry72,77067.128.449.83.411.35.90.01.2CONLAB
296284Crewe and Nantwich Kieran Mullan80,32167.328.649.93.411.25.70.01.2CONLAB
312268Blackpool North and Cleveleys Paul Maynard63,69260.930.148.73.311.35.10.01.4CONLAB
327253Ribble South Katherine Fletcher75,35171.430.446.64.811.65.60.00.9CONLAB
330250Southport Damien Moore70,83768.028.043.110.811.95.20.01.1CONLAB
339241Altrincham and Sale West Graham Brady73,10774.928.442.57.111.98.70.01.4CONLAB
347233Macclesfield David Rutley76,21670.731.243.95.411.27.30.01.1CONLAB
386194Eddisbury Edward Timpson73,70071.932.938.010.112.35.80.00.8CONLAB
393187Congleton Fiona Bruce80,93070.734.138.87.312.56.10.01.2CONLAB
396184Wyre and Preston North Ben Wallace74,77570.835.039.35.312.76.70.01.1CONLAB
398182Ribble Valley Nigel Evans79,24769.835.139.26.312.65.80.01.0CONLAB
399181Fylde Mark Menzies66,84769.834.338.25.913.86.00.01.7CONLAB
409171Penrith and The Border Neil Hudson67,55570.831.834.811.414.47.00.00.6CONLAB
410170Tatton Esther McVey69,01870.932.735.710.112.97.20.01.4CONLAB
452128Hazel Grove William Wragg63,34669.927.726.527.312.15.60.00.9CONCON
455124Cheadle Mary Robinson74,57775.027.025.429.211.95.50.01.0CONLIB
54534Westmorland and Lonsdale Tim Farron67,78977.824.913.944.312.44.10.00.4LIBLIB

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.