| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 18.8% | 3 | 14.6% | 3 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| LAB | 44.8% | 66 | 25.1% | 0 | 43 | -43 | 23 |
| LIB | 7.8% | 3 | 9.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 3 |
| Reform | 16.6% | 0 | 28.0% | 31 | 0 | +31 | 31 |
| Green | 7.0% | 0 | 17.6% | 9 | 0 | +9 | 9 |
| Other | 4.9% | 1 | 5.7% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Manchester Withington' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Pendle and Clitheroe', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Pendle and Clitheroe (prediction: CON), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Manchester Withington (prediction: Green).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 327 | Manchester Withington | Jeff Smith | 70,549 | 59.2 | 5.3 | 30.7 | 8.2 | 10.6 | 40.1 | 4.9 | 0.2 | LAB | Green |
| 4 | 325 | Liverpool Walton | Dan Carden | 69,317 | 53.2 | 1.9 | 52.9 | 1.3 | 34.3 | 5.8 | 0.0 | 3.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 6 | 323 | Liverpool West Derby | Ian Byrne | 69,934 | 54.3 | 2.5 | 50.7 | 2.0 | 32.6 | 7.7 | 0.0 | 4.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 9 | 320 | Sefton Central | Bill Esterson | 74,282 | 63.9 | 5.0 | 50.8 | 2.0 | 34.7 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 3.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 10 | 319 | Knowsley | Anneliese Midgley | 72,087 | 50.0 | 2.0 | 49.8 | 1.4 | 34.8 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 1.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 13 | 316 | Bootle | Peter Dowd | 73,037 | 53.2 | 5.3 | 38.6 | 5.1 | 25.7 | 18.2 | 7.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 14 | 315 | Chorley | Lindsay Hoyle | 74,575 | 45.5 | 4.9 | 37.5 | 5.1 | 24.8 | 21.6 | 0.0 | 6.1 | LAB | LAB |
| 14 | 314 | Manchester Rusholme | Afzal Khan | 72,604 | 40.0 | 5.2 | 24.2 | 2.9 | 11.5 | 48.4 | 7.3 | 0.6 | LAB | Green |
| 17 | 312 | Wallasey | Angela Eagle | 74,082 | 57.7 | 6.1 | 41.7 | 3.6 | 29.9 | 12.1 | 5.3 | 1.3 | LAB | LAB |
| 20 | 309 | Ellesmere Port and Bromborough | Justin Madders | 70,799 | 59.3 | 3.4 | 48.3 | 1.8 | 36.9 | 5.8 | 0.0 | 3.8 | LAB | LAB |
| 20 | 308 | Liverpool Wavertree | Paula Barker | 70,581 | 56.4 | 5.6 | 29.6 | 7.2 | 18.2 | 35.9 | 0.0 | 3.6 | LAB | Green |
| 21 | 308 | Wirral West | Matthew Patrick | 72,838 | 68.6 | 20.3 | 31.2 | 10.0 | 20.0 | 15.2 | 0.0 | 3.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 26 | 303 | Widnes and Halewood | Derek Twigg | 71,233 | 53.5 | 3.0 | 46.4 | 1.4 | 37.5 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 29 | 300 | Runcorn and Helsby | Mike Amesbury | 71,955 | 58.7 | 4.4 | 46.4 | 1.9 | 38.2 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 4.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 29 | 299 | Liverpool Riverside | Kim Johnson | 71,380 | 45.4 | 4.8 | 29.7 | 5.2 | 21.6 | 35.0 | 0.0 | 3.8 | LAB | Green |
| 31 | 298 | Lancashire West | Ashley Dalton | 74,083 | 59.7 | 5.9 | 46.0 | 2.1 | 38.0 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 3.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 33 | 296 | Liverpool Garston | Maria Eagle | 69,282 | 60.6 | 8.3 | 32.0 | 9.6 | 24.2 | 20.8 | 0.0 | 5.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 38 | 291 | Stretford and Urmston | Andrew Western | 75,153 | 61.2 | 10.9 | 28.9 | 5.5 | 22.1 | 22.7 | 9.4 | 0.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 40 | 288 | Altrincham and Sale West | Connor Rand | 74,025 | 69.5 | 26.5 | 24.9 | 9.1 | 18.3 | 16.0 | 5.2 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 41 | 288 | Chester North and Neston | Samantha Dixon | 70,215 | 63.7 | 17.6 | 29.7 | 7.8 | 23.4 | 18.7 | 0.0 | 2.8 | LAB | LAB |
| 51 | 278 | Bury South | Christian Wakeford | 75,339 | 56.0 | 10.6 | 37.1 | 4.0 | 31.9 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | LAB | LAB |
| 54 | 274 | Manchester Central | Lucy Powell | 85,049 | 46.7 | 7.1 | 24.7 | 5.9 | 20.5 | 34.9 | 5.9 | 1.1 | LAB | Green |
| 57 | 272 | Worsley and Eccles | Michael Wheeler | 78,643 | 54.1 | 4.7 | 42.7 | 1.7 | 39.0 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 2.9 | LAB | LAB |
| 59 | 270 | Macclesfield | Tim Roca | 76,416 | 69.1 | 21.0 | 27.3 | 10.5 | 24.1 | 14.7 | 0.0 | 2.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 62 | 266 | Gorton and Denton | Andrew Gwynne | 78,125 | 46.8 | 7.3 | 26.1 | 4.9 | 23.4 | 28.8 | 9.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Green |
| 63 | 266 | Cheshire Mid | Andrew Graham Cooper | 70,384 | 59.0 | 8.5 | 40.4 | 3.5 | 37.7 | 5.9 | 0.0 | 4.1 | LAB | LAB |
| 64 | 265 | Warrington South | Sarah Edith Hall | 78,399 | 63.4 | 17.1 | 30.4 | 8.6 | 27.8 | 12.9 | 0.0 | 3.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 66 | 263 | Stockport | Navendu Mishra | 76,625 | 57.0 | 8.8 | 26.9 | 8.0 | 24.6 | 24.3 | 7.0 | 0.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 68 | 260 | Salford | Rebecca Long-Bailey | 83,633 | 47.5 | 7.9 | 26.3 | 5.8 | 24.3 | 29.1 | 5.6 | 0.9 | LAB | Green |
| 69 | 260 | St Helens North | David Baines | 75,483 | 53.6 | 3.3 | 43.8 | 1.7 | 42.1 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 4.1 | LAB | LAB |
| 76 | 253 | Wythenshawe and Sale East | Mike Kane | 77,765 | 50.3 | 10.0 | 27.7 | 5.7 | 26.9 | 22.8 | 5.5 | 1.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 84 | 245 | Crewe and Nantwich | Connor Naismith | 78,423 | 60.2 | 12.2 | 34.5 | 4.8 | 34.6 | 8.3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 88 | 240 | Lancaster and Wyre | Cat Smith | 74,760 | 57.5 | 14.4 | 24.0 | 6.9 | 24.6 | 26.5 | 0.0 | 3.6 | LAB | Green |
| 88 | 240 | Birkenhead | Alison McGovern | 78,091 | 55.2 | 5.7 | 26.1 | 6.1 | 27.0 | 31.1 | 0.0 | 3.9 | LAB | Green |
| 91 | 238 | Whitehaven and Workington | Josh MacAlister | 73,198 | 57.2 | 5.7 | 42.1 | 1.7 | 43.7 | 3.4 | 0.0 | 3.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 94 | 234 | Cheadle | Tom Morrison | 74,383 | 68.2 | 19.4 | 13.3 | 34.0 | 15.1 | 13.3 | 4.6 | 0.3 | LIB | LIB |
| 96 | 233 | Stalybridge and Hyde | Jonathan Reynolds | 72,265 | 51.5 | 8.1 | 34.3 | 3.2 | 36.2 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 3.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 97 | 232 | St Helens South and Whiston | Marie Rimmer | 71,569 | 53.1 | 5.0 | 34.4 | 4.7 | 36.3 | 12.5 | 0.0 | 7.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 102 | 227 | Southport | Patrick Brian Hurley | 73,641 | 61.2 | 20.3 | 23.6 | 13.3 | 25.8 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 114 | 215 | Bolton North East | Kirith Entwistle | 80,011 | 54.2 | 17.4 | 22.5 | 6.8 | 25.7 | 18.8 | 7.2 | 1.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 114 | 214 | Chester South and Eddisbury | Aphra Brandreth | 74,284 | 70.7 | 27.9 | 21.8 | 12.7 | 25.0 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 3.4 | CON | CON |
| 114 | 214 | Tatton | Esther McVey | 75,978 | 68.3 | 28.5 | 22.2 | 11.9 | 25.5 | 9.9 | 0.0 | 2.0 | CON | CON |
| 115 | 214 | Congleton | Sarah Alison Russell | 74,243 | 67.5 | 25.5 | 24.4 | 8.3 | 27.8 | 9.5 | 0.0 | 4.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 115 | 213 | Blackburn | Adnan Hussain | 73,259 | 53.1 | 8.9 | 17.0 | 4.4 | 20.4 | 22.5 | 26.9 | 0.0 | MIN | MIN |
| 117 | 212 | Warrington North | Charlotte Nichols | 70,601 | 56.7 | 4.4 | 40.8 | 1.9 | 44.4 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 4.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 118 | 211 | Bury North | James Frith | 77,703 | 58.6 | 19.7 | 23.6 | 8.2 | 27.2 | 15.6 | 4.6 | 1.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 122 | 207 | Rochdale | Paul Waugh | 71,264 | 55.7 | 9.6 | 20.3 | 6.7 | 24.4 | 18.7 | 20.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 129 | 200 | Preston | Mark Hendrick | 77,400 | 51.7 | 11.1 | 19.7 | 7.2 | 24.7 | 20.2 | 15.6 | 1.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 131 | 198 | Wigan | Lisa Nandy | 77,537 | 52.7 | 3.4 | 39.1 | 1.6 | 44.7 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 7.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 132 | 197 | Blackley and Middleton South | Graham Stringer | 72,097 | 43.5 | 8.6 | 26.9 | 5.7 | 32.6 | 22.0 | 0.0 | 4.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 133 | 196 | Heywood and Middleton North | Elsie Jane Blundell | 74,786 | 49.6 | 4.8 | 37.3 | 1.9 | 43.0 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 9.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 153 | 176 | South Ribble | Paul Andrew Foster | 73,420 | 63.6 | 20.6 | 23.2 | 10.7 | 30.8 | 12.2 | 0.0 | 2.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 160 | 169 | Penrith and Solway | Markus Campbell-Savours | 77,935 | 63.2 | 20.3 | 22.2 | 12.6 | 30.3 | 12.2 | 0.0 | 2.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 161 | 168 | Oldham East and Saddleworth | Debbie Abrahams | 72,760 | 55.1 | 14.1 | 20.1 | 9.2 | 28.4 | 15.7 | 10.2 | 2.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 163 | 166 | Blackpool South | Chris Webb | 77,459 | 45.4 | 4.2 | 38.0 | 1.6 | 46.6 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 5.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 167 | 162 | Morecambe and Lunesdale | Lizzi Collinge | 76,424 | 62.9 | 20.0 | 20.8 | 14.0 | 29.8 | 13.2 | 0.0 | 2.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 170 | 159 | Ashton-under-Lyne | Angela Rayner | 71,002 | 49.9 | 9.0 | 25.8 | 4.3 | 34.8 | 14.8 | 11.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 172 | 157 | Burnley | Oliver Ryan | 74,951 | 53.0 | 14.9 | 19.7 | 16.5 | 29.0 | 15.8 | 0.0 | 4.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 173 | 156 | Bolton West | Phil Brickell | 74,933 | 59.5 | 21.2 | 19.8 | 10.1 | 29.1 | 17.4 | 0.0 | 2.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 173 | 155 | Hazel Grove | Lisa Smart | 72,843 | 63.1 | 15.1 | 14.5 | 31.6 | 24.0 | 11.8 | 0.0 | 3.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 174 | 155 | Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton | Jim McMahon | 73,178 | 52.7 | 9.6 | 20.5 | 5.9 | 30.0 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 176 | 153 | Leigh and Atherton | Jo Platt | 79,761 | 51.6 | 4.3 | 38.1 | 1.5 | 48.1 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 4.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 177 | 152 | Barrow and Furness | Michelle Scrogham | 74,980 | 56.3 | 23.3 | 23.7 | 6.2 | 33.8 | 9.6 | 0.0 | 3.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 184 | 144 | Ribble Valley | Maya Ellis | 80,484 | 64.6 | 32.7 | 18.6 | 8.2 | 29.1 | 7.7 | 0.0 | 3.7 | LAB | CON |
| 186 | 143 | Bolton South and Walkden | Yasmin Qureshi | 79,622 | 46.4 | 9.6 | 21.1 | 4.9 | 31.8 | 19.8 | 12.1 | 0.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 191 | 138 | Rossendale and Darwen | Andy MacNae | 74,440 | 59.9 | 18.7 | 21.3 | 7.4 | 32.7 | 14.7 | 5.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 207 | 121 | Westmorland and Lonsdale | Tim Farron | 72,029 | 68.8 | 15.5 | 7.9 | 42.3 | 20.9 | 10.4 | 0.0 | 3.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 211 | 118 | Makerfield | Josh Simons | 76,845 | 52.4 | 3.4 | 36.8 | 1.7 | 50.2 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 4.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 217 | 111 | Fylde | Andrew Snowden | 77,100 | 62.2 | 32.2 | 17.2 | 6.4 | 31.6 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 5.9 | CON | CON |
| 218 | 111 | Carlisle | Julie Minns | 77,863 | 59.1 | 19.3 | 19.7 | 10.6 | 34.1 | 13.5 | 0.0 | 2.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 234 | 95 | Blackpool North and Fleetwood | Lorraine Beavers | 73,339 | 57.0 | 19.2 | 21.5 | 8.3 | 37.1 | 10.8 | 0.0 | 3.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 238 | 91 | Hyndburn | Sarah Smith | 76,126 | 47.8 | 18.5 | 17.7 | 7.6 | 33.6 | 19.4 | 0.0 | 3.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 255 | 73 | Pendle and Clitheroe | Jonathan James Hinder | 78,796 | 59.3 | 36.4 | 13.5 | 5.0 | 32.1 | 7.6 | 0.8 | 4.5 | LAB | CON |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.