| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 18.8% | 3 | 14.3% | 3 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
| LAB | 44.8% | 66 | 25.0% | 0 | 42 | -42 | 24 |
| LIB | 7.8% | 3 | 8.8% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 3 |
| Reform | 16.6% | 0 | 27.7% | 31 | 0 | +31 | 31 |
| Green | 7.0% | 0 | 19.1% | 9 | 0 | +9 | 9 |
| Other | 4.9% | 1 | 5.1% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Manchester Withington' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Pendle and Clitheroe', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Pendle and Clitheroe (prediction: CON), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Manchester Withington (prediction: Green).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 325 | Manchester Withington | Jeff Smith | 70,549 | 59.2 | 5.1 | 30.5 | 7.9 | 9.8 | 41.6 | 4.9 | 0.2 | LAB | Green |
| 5 | 322 | Liverpool Walton | Dan Carden | 69,317 | 53.2 | 2.2 | 51.9 | 1.7 | 33.7 | 7.7 | 0.0 | 2.9 | LAB | LAB |
| 7 | 320 | Sefton Central | Bill Esterson | 74,282 | 63.9 | 4.9 | 51.6 | 2.0 | 34.4 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 2.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 9 | 318 | Liverpool West Derby | Ian Byrne | 69,934 | 54.3 | 3.5 | 45.6 | 3.3 | 31.2 | 12.9 | 0.0 | 3.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 10 | 316 | Manchester Rusholme | Afzal Khan | 72,604 | 40.0 | 5.0 | 24.0 | 2.6 | 10.8 | 49.9 | 7.3 | 0.4 | LAB | Green |
| 11 | 316 | Chorley | Lindsay Hoyle | 74,575 | 45.5 | 4.8 | 37.5 | 5.0 | 24.9 | 23.1 | 0.0 | 4.9 | LAB | LAB |
| 13 | 314 | Bootle | Peter Dowd | 73,037 | 53.2 | 5.5 | 36.5 | 5.2 | 24.5 | 21.2 | 7.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 14 | 312 | Liverpool Wavertree | Paula Barker | 70,581 | 56.4 | 5.4 | 29.4 | 7.0 | 18.0 | 37.4 | 0.0 | 2.8 | LAB | Green |
| 16 | 311 | Wirral West | Matthew Patrick | 72,838 | 68.6 | 20.0 | 31.1 | 9.8 | 19.8 | 16.6 | 0.0 | 2.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 18 | 309 | Knowsley | Anneliese Midgley | 72,087 | 50.0 | 3.2 | 43.8 | 2.6 | 32.7 | 12.1 | 4.5 | 1.1 | LAB | LAB |
| 21 | 306 | Widnes and Halewood | Derek Twigg | 71,233 | 53.5 | 2.9 | 47.0 | 1.3 | 36.6 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 22 | 305 | Ellesmere Port and Bromborough | Justin Madders | 70,799 | 59.3 | 4.3 | 45.5 | 2.7 | 35.6 | 8.9 | 0.0 | 3.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 24 | 303 | Runcorn and Helsby | Mike Amesbury | 71,955 | 58.7 | 4.3 | 47.2 | 1.9 | 38.0 | 5.3 | 0.0 | 3.3 | LAB | LAB |
| 25 | 302 | Lancashire West | Ashley Dalton | 74,083 | 59.7 | 5.8 | 46.8 | 2.0 | 37.7 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 2.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 27 | 299 | Liverpool Riverside | Kim Johnson | 71,380 | 45.4 | 4.7 | 29.5 | 5.1 | 21.3 | 36.4 | 0.0 | 3.0 | LAB | Green |
| 31 | 296 | Liverpool Garston | Maria Eagle | 69,282 | 60.6 | 8.0 | 31.9 | 9.5 | 24.2 | 22.3 | 0.0 | 4.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 32 | 295 | Wallasey | Angela Eagle | 74,082 | 57.7 | 8.1 | 34.7 | 5.2 | 27.0 | 18.8 | 5.3 | 1.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 35 | 292 | Stretford and Urmston | Andrew Western | 75,153 | 61.2 | 10.7 | 28.7 | 5.3 | 21.5 | 24.2 | 9.4 | 0.3 | LAB | LAB |
| 36 | 290 | Altrincham and Sale West | Connor Rand | 74,025 | 69.5 | 26.2 | 24.7 | 8.8 | 17.6 | 17.5 | 5.2 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 38 | 289 | Chester North and Neston | Samantha Dixon | 70,215 | 63.7 | 17.4 | 29.6 | 7.6 | 23.1 | 20.2 | 0.0 | 2.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 48 | 278 | Manchester Central | Lucy Powell | 85,049 | 46.7 | 6.8 | 24.6 | 5.6 | 19.9 | 36.3 | 5.9 | 0.9 | LAB | Green |
| 51 | 276 | Cheshire Mid | Andrew Graham Cooper | 70,384 | 59.0 | 7.9 | 41.7 | 3.2 | 37.9 | 6.1 | 0.0 | 3.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 54 | 273 | Macclesfield | Tim Roca | 76,416 | 69.1 | 20.7 | 27.2 | 10.3 | 23.8 | 16.2 | 0.0 | 1.9 | LAB | LAB |
| 54 | 272 | Gorton and Denton | Andrew Gwynne | 78,125 | 46.8 | 7.1 | 25.9 | 4.6 | 22.6 | 30.3 | 9.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Green |
| 55 | 272 | Bury South | Christian Wakeford | 75,339 | 56.0 | 14.0 | 31.3 | 5.7 | 28.0 | 14.8 | 4.8 | 1.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 56 | 271 | Warrington South | Sarah Edith Hall | 78,399 | 63.4 | 16.7 | 30.8 | 8.4 | 27.7 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 59 | 268 | Stockport | Navendu Mishra | 76,625 | 57.0 | 8.5 | 26.7 | 7.7 | 24.0 | 25.7 | 7.0 | 0.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 61 | 265 | Salford | Rebecca Long-Bailey | 83,633 | 47.5 | 7.7 | 26.1 | 5.5 | 23.7 | 30.6 | 5.6 | 0.7 | LAB | Green |
| 67 | 260 | Worsley and Eccles | Michael Wheeler | 78,643 | 54.1 | 7.0 | 37.9 | 3.1 | 36.3 | 9.9 | 3.6 | 2.3 | LAB | LAB |
| 73 | 254 | Wythenshawe and Sale East | Mike Kane | 77,765 | 50.3 | 9.7 | 27.6 | 5.5 | 26.4 | 24.2 | 5.5 | 1.1 | LAB | LAB |
| 74 | 253 | Crewe and Nantwich | Connor Naismith | 78,423 | 60.2 | 11.6 | 35.4 | 4.5 | 34.7 | 8.9 | 2.5 | 2.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 77 | 250 | St Helens North | David Baines | 75,483 | 53.6 | 4.2 | 41.1 | 2.5 | 40.8 | 8.1 | 0.0 | 3.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 82 | 245 | Whitehaven and Workington | Josh MacAlister | 73,198 | 57.2 | 5.6 | 42.8 | 1.7 | 43.3 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 2.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 82 | 244 | Lancaster and Wyre | Cat Smith | 74,760 | 57.5 | 14.2 | 23.9 | 6.7 | 24.5 | 28.0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | LAB | Green |
| 83 | 243 | Birkenhead | Alison McGovern | 78,091 | 55.2 | 5.5 | 26.0 | 6.0 | 26.8 | 32.6 | 0.0 | 3.1 | LAB | Green |
| 86 | 240 | Cheadle | Tom Morrison | 74,383 | 68.2 | 19.1 | 13.1 | 33.8 | 14.4 | 14.8 | 4.6 | 0.3 | LIB | LIB |
| 93 | 234 | Southport | Patrick Brian Hurley | 73,641 | 61.2 | 20.0 | 23.6 | 13.2 | 25.7 | 14.4 | 0.0 | 3.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 97 | 230 | Warrington North | Charlotte Nichols | 70,601 | 56.7 | 4.3 | 41.6 | 1.9 | 44.3 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 3.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 102 | 225 | Bolton North East | Kirith Entwistle | 80,011 | 54.2 | 17.2 | 22.3 | 6.6 | 25.2 | 20.3 | 7.2 | 1.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 102 | 224 | Blackburn | Adnan Hussain | 73,259 | 53.1 | 8.7 | 16.8 | 4.1 | 19.7 | 23.9 | 26.9 | 0.0 | MIN | MIN |
| 103 | 223 | Tatton | Esther McVey | 75,978 | 68.3 | 28.2 | 22.0 | 11.7 | 25.1 | 11.4 | 0.0 | 1.6 | CON | CON |
| 103 | 223 | Chester South and Eddisbury | Aphra Brandreth | 74,284 | 70.7 | 27.7 | 21.7 | 12.5 | 24.8 | 10.7 | 0.0 | 2.6 | CON | CON |
| 105 | 222 | Bury North | James Frith | 77,703 | 58.6 | 19.4 | 23.4 | 7.9 | 26.7 | 17.1 | 4.6 | 0.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 108 | 219 | Congleton | Sarah Alison Russell | 74,243 | 67.5 | 25.2 | 24.3 | 8.2 | 27.8 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 3.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 109 | 218 | Rochdale | Paul Waugh | 71,264 | 55.7 | 9.3 | 20.1 | 6.4 | 23.7 | 20.2 | 20.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 113 | 214 | Stalybridge and Hyde | Jonathan Reynolds | 72,265 | 51.5 | 10.4 | 29.4 | 4.4 | 33.5 | 14.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 118 | 209 | Preston | Mark Hendrick | 77,400 | 51.7 | 10.8 | 19.6 | 7.0 | 24.2 | 21.6 | 15.6 | 1.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 119 | 208 | Wigan | Lisa Nandy | 77,537 | 52.7 | 3.3 | 39.9 | 1.6 | 44.7 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 6.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 123 | 204 | Heywood and Middleton North | Elsie Jane Blundell | 74,786 | 49.6 | 5.5 | 36.7 | 2.4 | 42.3 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 8.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 124 | 203 | Blackley and Middleton South | Graham Stringer | 72,097 | 43.5 | 8.3 | 26.9 | 5.5 | 32.5 | 23.5 | 0.0 | 3.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 126 | 201 | St Helens South and Whiston | Marie Rimmer | 71,569 | 53.1 | 6.2 | 29.1 | 6.2 | 34.9 | 17.7 | 0.0 | 6.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 147 | 180 | South Ribble | Paul Andrew Foster | 73,420 | 63.6 | 20.3 | 23.1 | 10.5 | 30.5 | 13.7 | 0.0 | 2.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 151 | 176 | Blackpool South | Chris Webb | 77,459 | 45.4 | 4.1 | 38.9 | 1.6 | 46.7 | 4.2 | 0.0 | 4.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 154 | 173 | Penrith and Solway | Markus Campbell-Savours | 77,935 | 63.2 | 20.0 | 22.1 | 12.4 | 30.0 | 13.7 | 0.0 | 1.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 158 | 169 | Oldham East and Saddleworth | Debbie Abrahams | 72,760 | 55.1 | 13.8 | 20.0 | 9.0 | 28.1 | 17.2 | 10.2 | 1.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 160 | 167 | Morecambe and Lunesdale | Lizzi Collinge | 76,424 | 62.9 | 19.7 | 20.7 | 13.8 | 29.4 | 14.7 | 0.0 | 1.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 166 | 161 | Leigh and Atherton | Jo Platt | 79,761 | 51.6 | 4.2 | 38.8 | 1.5 | 47.9 | 4.2 | 0.0 | 3.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 167 | 160 | Bolton West | Phil Brickell | 74,933 | 59.5 | 20.9 | 19.6 | 9.9 | 28.8 | 18.8 | 0.0 | 1.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 168 | 159 | Burnley | Oliver Ryan | 74,951 | 53.0 | 14.6 | 19.6 | 16.4 | 28.9 | 17.2 | 0.0 | 3.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 168 | 158 | Hazel Grove | Lisa Smart | 72,843 | 63.1 | 14.8 | 14.3 | 31.7 | 23.8 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 2.4 | LIB | LIB |
| 170 | 157 | Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton | Jim McMahon | 73,178 | 52.7 | 9.3 | 20.4 | 5.8 | 30.1 | 20.5 | 0.0 | 13.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 172 | 155 | Barrow and Furness | Michelle Scrogham | 74,980 | 56.3 | 23.0 | 23.6 | 6.0 | 33.6 | 11.1 | 0.0 | 2.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 173 | 153 | Ribble Valley | Maya Ellis | 80,484 | 64.6 | 31.9 | 18.9 | 8.3 | 28.9 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 2.9 | LAB | CON |
| 176 | 151 | Ashton-under-Lyne | Angela Rayner | 71,002 | 49.9 | 9.8 | 22.7 | 4.7 | 32.9 | 18.5 | 11.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 177 | 150 | Bolton South and Walkden | Yasmin Qureshi | 79,622 | 46.4 | 9.3 | 20.9 | 4.7 | 31.2 | 21.3 | 12.1 | 0.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 180 | 147 | Rossendale and Darwen | Andy MacNae | 74,440 | 59.9 | 18.4 | 21.1 | 7.1 | 32.0 | 16.2 | 5.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 199 | 128 | Makerfield | Josh Simons | 76,845 | 52.4 | 3.3 | 37.6 | 1.7 | 50.0 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 3.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 202 | 124 | Westmorland and Lonsdale | Tim Farron | 72,029 | 68.8 | 15.1 | 7.8 | 42.3 | 20.7 | 11.8 | 0.0 | 2.3 | LIB | LIB |
| 211 | 116 | Fylde | Andrew Snowden | 77,100 | 62.2 | 31.3 | 17.7 | 6.5 | 31.7 | 8.1 | 0.0 | 4.7 | CON | Reform |
| 215 | 112 | Carlisle | Julie Minns | 77,863 | 59.1 | 19.0 | 19.6 | 10.4 | 33.8 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 2.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 228 | 99 | Blackpool North and Fleetwood | Lorraine Beavers | 73,339 | 57.0 | 18.9 | 21.4 | 8.2 | 36.9 | 12.3 | 0.0 | 2.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 233 | 94 | Hyndburn | Sarah Smith | 76,126 | 47.8 | 18.3 | 17.6 | 7.5 | 33.4 | 20.9 | 0.0 | 2.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 250 | 76 | Pendle and Clitheroe | Jonathan James Hinder | 78,796 | 59.3 | 35.7 | 13.9 | 5.1 | 32.0 | 9.0 | 0.8 | 3.5 | LAB | CON |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.