North West: Majority Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 37.5%32 29.0%023-239
LAB 47.3%42 52.2%230+2365
LIB 7.9%1 5.8%00+01
Reform 3.9%0 2.6%00+00
Green 2.5%0 6.3%00+00
Other 1.1%0 4.1%00+00

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Liverpool Walton, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Penrith and The Border, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Cheadle (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Southport (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
1562Liverpool Walton Dan Carden62,62865.
2561Liverpool Riverside Kim Johnson80,31065.77.373.
3560Knowsley George Howarth84,08265.39.475.
4559Bootle Peter Dowd74,83265.79.874.
5558Liverpool West Derby Ian Byrne65,64067.
6557Manchester Gorton Afzal Khan76,41958.39.470.
7556Chorley Lindsay Hoyle78,17751.07.368.53.12.610.60.07.9LABLAB
8555Liverpool Wavertree Paula Barker63,45868.49.970.
9554Garston and Halewood Maria Eagle76,11670.112.570.
10553Manchester Central Lucy Powell92,24756.711.868.
11552Manchester Withington Jeff Smith76,53069.29.366.
21542Birkenhead Mick Whitley63,76266.413.564.
36527Halton Derek Twigg71,93064.219.464.
38525Wallasey Angela Eagle66,31070.
44519St Helens South and Whiston Marie Rimmer79,06163.618.761.
48515Blackley and Broughton Graham Stringer73,37252.619.761.
51512Salford and Eccles Rebecca Long-Bailey82,20261.619.660.
55508Preston Mark Hendrick59,67256.621.
64499Stretford and Urmston Kate Green72,37269.221.960.
70493Blackburn Kate Hollern71,23462.822.459.
75488Sefton Central Bill Esterson69,76072.923.
78485Stockport Navendu Mishra65,39163.821.857.
83480Wythenshawe and Sale East Mike Kane76,31358.723.
88475St Helens North Conor McGinn75,59362.923.357.
106457Oldham West and Royton Jim McMahon72,99960.926.355.
111452Ellesmere Port and Neston Justin Madders70,32769.327.856.
112451Denton and Reddish Andrew Gwynne66,23458.326.755.
118445Lancashire West Rosie Cooper73,34771.828.555.
121442Rochdale Tony Lloyd78,90960.126.453.
123440Wigan Lisa Nandy75,68059.527.
128435Bolton South East Yasmin Qureshi69,16358.728.
130433Wirral South Alison McGovern57,28076.028.954.
131432Chester, City of Chris Matheson76,05771.728.554.
148415Ashton under Lyne Angela Rayner67,97856.829.
156407Makerfield Yvonne Fovargue74,19059.728.852.
159404Worsley and Eccles South Barbara Keeley75,21959.429.552.
160403Lancaster and Fleetwood Cat Smith70,05964.530.
164399Stalybridge and Hyde Jonathan Reynolds73,06458.029.551.
174389Wirral West Margaret Greenwood55,55077.331.652.
180383Warrington North Charlotte Nichols72,23564.631.350.
199364Bury South Christian Wakeford75,15266.932.749.
201362Weaver Vale Mike Amesbury70,55171.933.349.
203360Oldham East and Saddleworth Debbie Abrahams72,12064.032.448.
213350Warrington South Andy Carter86,01572.033.949.
216347Heywood and Middleton Chris Clarkson80,16259.233.548.
218345Bury North James Daly68,80268.
220343Leigh James Grundy77,41760.734.648.
224339Bolton North East Mark Logan67,56464.534.948.
227336Burnley Antony Higginbotham64,34560.632.845.
235328Southport Damien Moore70,83768.034.645.
240323Altrincham and Sale West Graham Brady73,10774.935.
248315Hyndburn Sara Britcliffe70,84259.937.
253310Blackpool South Scott Benton57,69056.837.
258305Workington Mark Jenkinson61,37067.838.
264299Barrow and Furness Simon Fell70,15865.638.545.
273290Morecambe and Lunesdale David Morris67,39767.
276287Copeland Trudy Harrison61,69368.939.845.
279284Crewe and Nantwich Kieran Mullan80,32167.339.
288275Bolton West Chris Green73,19167.440.
292271Carlisle John Stevenson65,10565.940.
293270Rossendale and Darwen Jake Berry72,77067.140.444.
295268Macclesfield David Rutley76,21670.738.542.
299264Ribble South Katherine Fletcher75,35171.440.543.
301262Pendle Andrew Stephenson65,28968.140.943.
310253Blackpool North and Cleveleys Paul Maynard63,69260.942.
335228Cheadle Mary Robinson74,57775.033.828.827.
336227Eddisbury Edward Timpson73,70071.941.836.
340223Congleton Fiona Bruce80,93070.743.437.
343220Hazel Grove William Wragg63,34669.935.429.724.
349214Tatton Esther McVey69,01870.942.
353210Wyre and Preston North Ben Wallace74,77570.844.837.
354209Ribble Valley Nigel Evans79,24769.844.837.
377186Fylde Mark Menzies66,84769.845.436.
399163Westmorland and Lonsdale Tim Farron67,78977.833.322.634.
401162Penrith and The Border Neil Hudson67,55570.845.434.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.