| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 18.8% | 3 | 14.9% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 3 |
| LAB | 44.8% | 66 | 29.6% | 0 | 25 | -25 | 41 |
| LIB | 7.8% | 3 | 6.9% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 3 |
| Reform | 16.6% | 0 | 27.5% | 24 | 0 | +24 | 24 |
| Green | 7.0% | 0 | 12.5% | 2 | 0 | +2 | 2 |
| Other | 4.9% | 1 | 8.7% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Liverpool Walton' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Fylde', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Fylde (prediction: CON), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Stockport (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 350 | Liverpool Walton | Dan Carden | 69,317 | 53.2 | 3.1 | 52.5 | 1.9 | 24.8 | 6.9 | 10.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 2 | 349 | Liverpool West Derby | Ian Byrne | 69,934 | 54.3 | 3.0 | 53.1 | 1.8 | 26.3 | 6.2 | 9.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 4 | 347 | Knowsley | Anneliese Midgley | 72,087 | 50.0 | 2.3 | 53.6 | 1.1 | 29.0 | 3.7 | 10.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 6 | 345 | Manchester Withington | Jeff Smith | 70,549 | 59.2 | 6.2 | 35.6 | 7.4 | 11.7 | 33.9 | 5.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 8 | 343 | Bootle | Peter Dowd | 73,037 | 53.2 | 5.8 | 43.8 | 4.3 | 20.7 | 15.7 | 9.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 9 | 342 | Chorley | Lindsay Hoyle | 74,575 | 45.5 | 4.9 | 43.7 | 3.8 | 20.8 | 18.7 | 8.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 10 | 341 | Sefton Central | Bill Esterson | 74,282 | 63.9 | 5.9 | 51.3 | 1.9 | 29.3 | 4.5 | 7.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 11 | 340 | Wallasey | Angela Eagle | 74,082 | 57.7 | 3.8 | 51.7 | 1.3 | 30.8 | 4.3 | 8.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 12 | 339 | Birkenhead | Alison McGovern | 78,091 | 55.2 | 4.7 | 48.1 | 2.7 | 27.2 | 10.2 | 7.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 13 | 338 | Liverpool Garston | Maria Eagle | 69,282 | 60.6 | 3.5 | 52.2 | 1.9 | 31.8 | 3.4 | 7.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 14 | 337 | Widnes and Halewood | Derek Twigg | 71,233 | 53.5 | 3.0 | 50.9 | 1.1 | 30.6 | 3.5 | 10.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 15 | 336 | Liverpool Wavertree | Paula Barker | 70,581 | 56.4 | 7.1 | 39.1 | 6.4 | 18.9 | 22.1 | 6.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 17 | 334 | Ellesmere Port and Bromborough | Justin Madders | 70,799 | 59.3 | 3.5 | 51.1 | 1.3 | 32.0 | 3.4 | 8.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 21 | 330 | Liverpool Riverside | Kim Johnson | 71,380 | 45.4 | 5.5 | 34.9 | 4.6 | 16.8 | 28.9 | 9.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 24 | 327 | Stockport | Navendu Mishra | 76,625 | 57.0 | 7.6 | 41.2 | 4.6 | 25.5 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 37 | 314 | Chester North and Neston | Samantha Dixon | 70,215 | 63.7 | 12.1 | 40.4 | 3.8 | 27.5 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 39 | 312 | Wythenshawe and Sale East | Mike Kane | 77,765 | 50.3 | 10.0 | 35.1 | 4.5 | 22.7 | 17.9 | 9.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 39 | 311 | Manchester Rusholme | Afzal Khan | 72,604 | 40.0 | 5.6 | 27.0 | 3.1 | 14.6 | 43.3 | 6.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Green |
| 45 | 306 | Stretford and Urmston | Andrew Western | 75,153 | 61.2 | 10.1 | 33.8 | 4.7 | 22.5 | 20.4 | 8.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 48 | 303 | Salford | Rebecca Long-Bailey | 83,633 | 47.5 | 7.9 | 31.2 | 5.0 | 20.6 | 24.8 | 10.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 54 | 297 | Manchester Central | Lucy Powell | 85,049 | 46.7 | 7.5 | 29.9 | 5.3 | 19.8 | 28.5 | 9.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 58 | 293 | St Helens North | David Baines | 75,483 | 53.6 | 3.7 | 46.0 | 1.2 | 36.2 | 3.4 | 9.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 59 | 292 | St Helens South and Whiston | Marie Rimmer | 71,569 | 53.1 | 3.1 | 46.1 | 1.4 | 37.1 | 3.3 | 9.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 60 | 291 | Worsley and Eccles | Michael Wheeler | 78,643 | 54.1 | 4.6 | 44.4 | 1.2 | 35.4 | 4.2 | 10.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 61 | 290 | Makerfield | Josh Simons | 76,845 | 52.4 | 2.1 | 47.2 | 0.7 | 38.5 | 1.6 | 10.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 64 | 287 | Blackley and Middleton South | Graham Stringer | 72,097 | 43.5 | 7.3 | 34.2 | 3.8 | 25.6 | 16.5 | 12.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 68 | 283 | Wirral West | Matthew Patrick | 72,838 | 68.6 | 21.8 | 33.2 | 7.4 | 25.0 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 70 | 281 | Altrincham and Sale West | Connor Rand | 74,025 | 69.5 | 25.9 | 29.6 | 7.6 | 21.7 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 72 | 279 | Lancaster and Wyre | Cat Smith | 74,760 | 57.5 | 5.8 | 45.5 | 1.2 | 38.1 | 3.4 | 6.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 73 | 278 | Lancashire West | Ashley Dalton | 74,083 | 59.7 | 5.6 | 44.2 | 1.4 | 37.2 | 2.7 | 8.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 74 | 277 | Warrington North | Charlotte Nichols | 70,601 | 56.7 | 4.3 | 43.1 | 1.3 | 36.1 | 3.5 | 11.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 75 | 276 | Macclesfield | Tim Roca | 76,416 | 69.1 | 23.0 | 31.0 | 6.7 | 24.1 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 79 | 272 | Warrington South | Sarah Edith Hall | 78,399 | 63.4 | 6.2 | 43.1 | 1.8 | 36.6 | 2.5 | 9.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 89 | 262 | Runcorn and Helsby | Mike Amesbury | 71,955 | 58.7 | 3.4 | 46.8 | 1.1 | 41.3 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 92 | 259 | Bury South | Christian Wakeford | 75,339 | 56.0 | 5.9 | 42.4 | 1.3 | 37.6 | 3.2 | 9.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 96 | 255 | Ashton-under-Lyne | Angela Rayner | 71,002 | 49.9 | 3.7 | 41.6 | 1.1 | 37.0 | 4.4 | 12.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 110 | 241 | Wigan | Lisa Nandy | 77,537 | 52.7 | 3.4 | 41.6 | 1.2 | 38.5 | 3.3 | 12.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 116 | 235 | Leigh and Atherton | Jo Platt | 79,761 | 51.6 | 4.1 | 40.8 | 1.0 | 38.2 | 3.1 | 12.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 118 | 233 | Whitehaven and Workington | Josh MacAlister | 73,198 | 57.2 | 5.0 | 41.5 | 1.1 | 39.2 | 1.9 | 11.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 121 | 230 | Stalybridge and Hyde | Jonathan Reynolds | 72,265 | 51.5 | 5.3 | 41.3 | 1.1 | 39.2 | 3.9 | 9.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 122 | 229 | Bolton South and Walkden | Yasmin Qureshi | 79,622 | 46.4 | 4.6 | 38.1 | 1.6 | 36.0 | 7.4 | 12.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 131 | 219 | Gorton and Denton | Andrew Gwynne | 78,125 | 46.8 | 4.9 | 28.4 | 3.1 | 27.6 | 31.5 | 4.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Green |
| 134 | 217 | Cheshire Mid | Andrew Graham Cooper | 70,384 | 59.0 | 6.3 | 40.5 | 1.5 | 40.1 | 2.4 | 9.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 144 | 206 | Tatton | Esther McVey | 75,978 | 68.3 | 32.2 | 23.2 | 7.9 | 23.6 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 149 | 202 | Bury North | James Frith | 77,703 | 58.6 | 18.4 | 29.2 | 4.8 | 29.9 | 9.1 | 8.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 153 | 198 | Crewe and Nantwich | Connor Naismith | 78,423 | 60.2 | 6.3 | 39.5 | 1.4 | 40.6 | 2.4 | 9.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 156 | 195 | Rochdale | Paul Waugh | 71,264 | 55.7 | 6.3 | 32.0 | 3.3 | 34.1 | 9.0 | 15.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 160 | 191 | Blackpool South | Chris Webb | 77,459 | 45.4 | 4.5 | 38.6 | 1.1 | 40.9 | 3.1 | 11.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 176 | 175 | Barrow and Furness | Michelle Scrogham | 74,980 | 56.3 | 22.0 | 26.3 | 4.9 | 30.2 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 179 | 172 | Penrith and Solway | Markus Campbell-Savours | 77,935 | 63.2 | 21.2 | 25.7 | 8.4 | 29.8 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 181 | 170 | South Ribble | Paul Andrew Foster | 73,420 | 63.6 | 21.6 | 25.6 | 7.3 | 29.7 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 182 | 169 | Heywood and Middleton North | Elsie Jane Blundell | 74,786 | 49.6 | 4.9 | 37.7 | 1.4 | 41.8 | 3.1 | 11.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 187 | 164 | Blackburn | Adnan Hussain | 73,259 | 53.1 | 8.7 | 20.9 | 4.5 | 25.3 | 16.5 | 24.1 | 0.0 | MIN | Reform |
| 191 | 160 | Rossendale and Darwen | Andy MacNae | 74,440 | 59.9 | 16.7 | 28.2 | 4.1 | 32.7 | 8.2 | 10.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 191 | 159 | Cheadle | Tom Morrison | 74,383 | 68.2 | 20.4 | 14.7 | 32.6 | 19.2 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 192 | 158 | Chester South and Eddisbury | Aphra Brandreth | 74,284 | 70.7 | 32.6 | 20.2 | 9.2 | 24.9 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 193 | 158 | Preston | Mark Hendrick | 77,400 | 51.7 | 8.4 | 29.0 | 4.6 | 33.6 | 12.8 | 11.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 193 | 157 | Hazel Grove | Lisa Smart | 72,843 | 63.1 | 16.9 | 18.0 | 26.6 | 22.7 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 195 | 156 | Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton | Jim McMahon | 73,178 | 52.7 | 5.7 | 34.1 | 2.2 | 39.0 | 8.7 | 10.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 196 | 155 | Morecambe and Lunesdale | Lizzi Collinge | 76,424 | 62.9 | 20.8 | 25.1 | 9.2 | 30.1 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 208 | 143 | Congleton | Sarah Alison Russell | 74,243 | 67.5 | 26.2 | 24.4 | 6.3 | 30.3 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 211 | 140 | Bolton West | Phil Brickell | 74,933 | 59.5 | 22.1 | 23.8 | 6.3 | 30.1 | 9.8 | 8.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 220 | 131 | Southport | Patrick Brian Hurley | 73,641 | 61.2 | 17.7 | 26.8 | 8.5 | 33.8 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 224 | 127 | Bolton North East | Kirith Entwistle | 80,011 | 54.2 | 14.0 | 28.5 | 4.0 | 35.8 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 234 | 117 | Ribble Valley | Maya Ellis | 80,484 | 64.6 | 26.8 | 22.1 | 7.8 | 30.1 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 241 | 110 | Oldham East and Saddleworth | Debbie Abrahams | 72,760 | 55.1 | 7.8 | 33.6 | 3.0 | 42.0 | 4.9 | 8.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 243 | 108 | Carlisle | Julie Minns | 77,863 | 59.1 | 19.6 | 23.6 | 6.7 | 32.3 | 8.0 | 9.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 260 | 91 | Burnley | Oliver Ryan | 74,951 | 53.0 | 12.9 | 26.0 | 8.9 | 36.3 | 5.9 | 10.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 261 | 90 | Hyndburn | Sarah Smith | 76,126 | 47.8 | 19.9 | 20.0 | 5.2 | 30.3 | 13.9 | 10.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 270 | 81 | Blackpool North and Fleetwood | Lorraine Beavers | 73,339 | 57.0 | 21.1 | 22.9 | 5.5 | 34.1 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 288 | 62 | Westmorland and Lonsdale | Tim Farron | 72,029 | 68.8 | 18.0 | 8.4 | 39.6 | 21.4 | 7.3 | 5.2 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 313 | 38 | Pendle and Clitheroe | Jonathan James Hinder | 78,796 | 59.3 | 26.8 | 19.4 | 5.1 | 35.4 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 331 | 19 | Fylde | Andrew Snowden | 77,100 | 62.2 | 38.9 | 12.8 | 4.0 | 33.3 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.