North West: Majority Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 36.2%20 19.1%011-119
LAB 54.9%54 34.3%50+559
LIB 5.4%1 14.8%30+34
Brexit 0.0%0 20.7%30+33
Green 1.1%0 7.5%00+00
UKIP 1.9%0 1.5%00+00
Other 0.5%0 2.1%00+00

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Manchester Gorton, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Penrith and The Border, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Westmorland and Lonsdale (prediction: LIB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Makerfield (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
4449Manchester Gorton Mohammed Khan75,36261.06.360.615.84.910.
7446Liverpool Walton Dan Carden62,73867.36.455.511.615.
11442Liverpool West Derby Stephen Twigg65,16469.37.154.511.915.
14439Knowsley George Howarth81,75167.96.752.612.
16437Liverpool Riverside Louise Ellman76,33262.97.351.417.17.813.
17436Bootle Peter Dowd72,87269.07.951.712.
21432Liverpool Wavertree Luciana Berger62,41169.98.149.818.911.
22431Blackburn Kate Hollern70,65767.215.957.28.710.
23430Manchester Central Lucy Powell90,26155.19.550.216.19.711.
30423Blackley and Broughton Graham Stringer71,64856.013.251.710.313.
32421Garston and Halewood Maria Eagle75,24871.110.647.814.516.
33420Birkenhead Frank Field64,48467.710.747.312.917.
35418Manchester Withington Jeff Smith74,55371.97.243.431.
43410Preston Mark Hendrick57,79161.613.747.412.315.
45408Oldham West and Royton Jim McMahon72,41863.215.449.19.716.
49404Halton Derek Twigg73,45767.411.943.611.
51402Wallasey Angela Eagle67,45471.713.043.911.620.
55398Stretford and Urmston Kate Green71,84069.915.444.712.416.
58395Rochdale Tony Lloyd78,06464.116.545.015.413.
59394Bolton South East Yasmin Qureshi68,88661.416.644.99.417.
62391St Helens South and Whiston Marie Rimmer79,03666.912.140.013.522.
76377Salford and Eccles Rebecca Long-Bailey78,08261.014.340.013.818.
93360Stockport Ann Coffey63,42565.515.639.115.517.
94359Denton and Reddish Andrew Gwynne65,75160.214.437.911.324.
101352St Helens North Conor McGinn76,08866.014.437.
105348Wythenshawe and Sale East Mike Kane76,36160.016.138.514.
106347Ashton under Lyne Angela Rayner67,67458.816.738.810.
111342Wigan Lisa Nandy75,35963.114.936.611.
120333Makerfield Yvonne Fovargue74,25963.216.236.311.525.
129324Sefton Central Bill Esterson69,01975.518.
136317Oldham East and Saddleworth Debbie Abrahams72,22365.119.637.
155298Ellesmere Port and Neston Justin Madders68,66674.219.235.311.723.
156297Stalybridge and Hyde Jonathan Reynolds71,40959.519.335.211.822.
161292Leigh Joanne Platt76,21161.517.832.911.
163290Lancashire West Rosie Cooper73,25874.219.734.711.922.
166287Hyndburn Graham Jones73,11061.821.436.19.722.
167286Worsley and Eccles South Barbara Keeley73,69261.919.634.311.623.
170283Warrington North Helen Jones72,01567.418.533.
171282Burnley Julie Cooper64,71462.315.529.920.
177276Heywood and Middleton Liz McInnes79,90162.419.632.811.324.
179274Wirral South Alison McGovern57,67078.421.
184269Bury South Ivan Lewis73,72369.222.735.011.519.
185268Bolton North East David Crausby67,23367.223.235.511.
187266Chester, City of Chris Matheson72,85977.422.034.014.618.
190263Lancaster and Fleetwood Cat Smith67,17168.520.832.313.620.
193260Bury North James Frith67,58770.924.635.711.718.
194259Chorley Lindsay Hoyle76,40472.821.532.611.823.
199254Blackpool South Gordon Marsden58,45059.820.230.39.528.
202251Wirral West Margaret Greenwood55,99578.523.032.614.
204249Workington Sue Hayman60,25669.220.630.
210243Pendle Andrew Stephenson64,96369.026.734.39.720.
212241Weaver Vale Mike Amesbury69,01673.322.930.413.422.
225228Warrington South Faisal Rashid85,75572.323.228.216.421.
226227Barrow and Furness John Woodcock69,47468.523.728.
227226Crewe and Nantwich Laura Smith78,89569.723.628.111.526.
237215Blackpool North and Cleveleys Paul Maynard63,96764.123.526.59.729.
241212Morecambe and Lunesdale David Morris66,83868.323.826.512.
242211Bolton West Chris Green72,79770.125.328.112.623.
248205Copeland Trudy Harrison61,75169.524.726.611.326.
248204Carlisle John Stevenson62,29469.
252201Rossendale and Darwen Jake Berry72,49569.
260192Southport Damien Moore69,40069.118.317.732.
273180Altrincham and Sale West Graham Brady73,22072.127.723.519.717.
273179Ribble South Seema Kennedy75,75272.427.122.912.327.
280173Macclesfield David Rutley75,22872.
300152Hazel Grove William Wragg62,68470.421.
302151Congleton Fiona Bruce76,69473.328.419.215.625.
306147Wyre and Preston North Ben Wallace72,31972.830.120.714.
307146Fylde Mark Menzies70,32466.128.719.
309144Ribble Valley Nigel Evans77,96870.828.919.
312141Eddisbury Antoinette Sandbach70,27273.029.119.314.825.
321131Cheadle Mary Robinson72,78075.022.811.941.915.
345107Westmorland and Lonsdale Tim Farron66,39177.919.76.347.719.
351102Tatton Esther McVey67,87472.430.616.518.822.
35895Penrith and The Border Rory Stewart65,13971.329.715.215.328.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.