North West: Majority Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 36.2%20 36.4%50+525
LAB 54.9%54 43.7%05-549
LIB 5.4%1 9.5%00+01
Brexit 0.0%0 5.7%00+00
Green 1.1%0 3.0%00+00
UKIP 1.9%0 0.0%00+00
Other 0.5%0 1.6%00+00

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Chorley, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Penrith and The Border, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Blackpool North and Cleveleys (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Crewe and Nantwich (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
1568Chorley Lindsay Hoyle76,40472.
3566Manchester Gorton Mohammed Khan75,36261.
8561Liverpool Riverside Louise Ellman76,33262.913.964.
14555Manchester Withington Jeff Smith74,55371.913.
19550Liverpool West Derby Stephen Twigg65,16469.317.461.
20549Liverpool Wavertree Luciana Berger62,41169.916.860.511.
21548Knowsley George Howarth81,75167.917.761.
23546Manchester Central Lucy Powell90,26155.117.360.
27542Bootle Peter Dowd72,87269.019.361.
34535Blackburn Kate Hollern70,65767.224.561.
38531Garston and Halewood Maria Eagle75,24871.121.757.
40529Birkenhead Frank Field64,48467.722.
45524Liverpool Walton Dan Carden62,73867.328.
47522Blackley and Broughton Graham Stringer71,64856.
53516Preston Mark Hendrick57,79161.625.454.
60509Wallasey Angela Eagle67,45471.726.
65504Halton Derek Twigg73,45767.426.353.
66503Oldham West and Royton Jim McMahon72,41863.227.554.
68501Stretford and Urmston Kate Green71,84069.927.353.
75494Rochdale Tony Lloyd78,06464.127.852.
77492St Helens South and Whiston Marie Rimmer79,03666.926.750.
82487Salford and Eccles Rebecca Long-Bailey78,08261.027.450.
90479Stockport Ann Coffey63,42565.528.
98471Bolton South East Yasmin Qureshi68,88661.430.050.45.410.
107462Wythenshawe and Sale East Mike Kane76,36160.
122447St Helens North Conor McGinn76,08866.
126443Denton and Reddish Andrew Gwynne65,75160.
136433Sefton Central Bill Esterson69,01975.531.747.
140429Wigan Lisa Nandy75,35963.131.546.47.511.
145424Ashton under Lyne Angela Rayner67,67458.832.546.46.711.
160409Oldham East and Saddleworth Debbie Abrahams72,22365.133.645.
162407Makerfield Yvonne Fovargue74,25963.233.344.
163406Ellesmere Port and Neston Justin Madders68,66674.234.545.
167402Chester, City of Chris Matheson72,85977.435.
168401Lancashire West Rosie Cooper73,25874.234.945.
169400Wirral South Alison McGovern57,67078.435.
172397Stalybridge and Hyde Jonathan Reynolds71,40959.534.
173396Weaver Vale Mike Amesbury69,01673.338.
176393Lancaster and Fleetwood Cat Smith67,17168.534.844.
184385Burnley Julie Cooper64,71462.331.740.310.811.
187382Warrington North Helen Jones72,01567.435.
189380Worsley and Eccles South Barbara Keeley73,69261.935.743.
199370Wirral West Margaret Greenwood55,99578.536.943.
203366Hyndburn Graham Jones73,11061.837.143.45.910.
208361Heywood and Middleton Liz McInnes79,90162.433.839.510.612.
211358Bury North James Frith67,58770.938.443.
224345Leigh Joanne Platt76,21161.539.441.
227342Bolton North East David Crausby67,23367.
230339Workington Sue Hayman60,25669.238.438.
237332Warrington South Faisal Rashid85,75572.343.942.
238331Barrow and Furness John Woodcock69,47468.540.639.
242327Crewe and Nantwich Laura Smith78,89569.740.
250319Blackpool South Gordon Marsden58,45059.841.938.
251318Bury South Ivan Lewis73,72369.241.838.
280289Pendle Andrew Stephenson64,96369.
284285Altrincham and Sale West Graham Brady73,22072.149.732.812.
287281Westmorland and Lonsdale Tim Farron66,39177.935.318.
293276Southport Damien Moore69,40069.147.128.624.
300269Bolton West Chris Green72,79770.154.935.
306263Morecambe and Lunesdale David Morris66,83868.354.834.
311258Rossendale and Darwen Jake Berry72,49569.255.634.
320249Carlisle John Stevenson62,29469.
322247Macclesfield David Rutley75,22872.253.931.
324245Copeland Trudy Harrison61,75169.556.833.
346223Blackpool North and Cleveleys Paul Maynard63,96764.158.632.
348221Hazel Grove William Wragg62,68470.449.322.728.
351218Cheadle Mary Robinson72,78075.
371198Ribble South Seema Kennedy75,75272.459.
389180Eddisbury Antoinette Sandbach70,27273.051.922.
392177Congleton Fiona Bruce76,69473.358.
398171Tatton Esther McVey67,87472.457.026.713.
410159Wyre and Preston North Ben Wallace72,31972.859.328.
432137Ribble Valley Nigel Evans77,96870.859.927.
435134Fylde Mark Menzies65,93770.559.926.
50762Penrith and The Border Rory Stewart65,13971.361.623.910.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.