North West: Majority Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	37.5%	32	35.7%	1	7	-6	26
LAB	47.3%	42	51.3%	7	0	+7	49
LIB	7.9%	1	5.1%	0	1	-1	0
Brexit	3.9%	0	2.3%	0	0	+0	0
Green	2.5%	0	3.3%	0	0	+0	0
Other	1.1%	0	2.3%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Liverpool Walton, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Penrith and The Border, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Cheadle (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Southport (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2019	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Brexit %	Green %	MIN %	OTH %	2019 Win	Pred Win
1	563	Liverpool Walton	Dan Carden	62,628	65.1	8.9	85.8	1.1	0.0	2.2	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
2	562	Knowsley	George Howarth	84,082	65.3	7.3	83.4	1.2	3.7	2.9	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
3	561	Bootle	Peter Dowd	74,832	65.7	8.3	82.4	2.2	3.2	3.0	0.0	0.9	LAB	LAB
4	560	Liverpool Riverside	Kim Johnson	80,310	65.7	7.0	80.7	3.0	2.0	6.3	0.0	0.9	LAB	LAB
5	559	Manchester Gorton	Afzal Khan	76,419	58.3	8.6	80.6	3.3	2.1	4.5	0.0	0.9	LAB	LAB
6	558	Liverpool West Derby	Ian Byrne	65,640	67.0	8.5	80.1	1.7	2.8	1.9	0.0	5.0	LAB	LAB
10	554	Liverpool Wavertree	Paula Barker	63,458	68.4	8.8	76.4	5.5	2.7	4.1	0.0	2.5	LAB	LAB
11	553	Chorley	Lindsay Hoyle	78,177	51.0	0.0	67.3	0.0	0.0	9.0	23.7	0.0	LAB	LAB
19	545	Garston and Halewood	Maria Eagle	76,116	70.1	11.7	76.3	3.7	3.3	3.1	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
20	544	Manchester Withington	Jeff Smith	76,530	69.2	9.9	73.1	8.9	1.5	4.9	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
22	542	Manchester Central	Lucy Powell	92,247	56.7	13.3	74.3	3.9	2.7	4.4	0.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
35	529	Birkenhead	Mick Whitley	63,762	66.4	11.8	61.8	2.3	2.1	3.9	17.2	0.9	LAB	LAB
45	519	Halton	Derek Twigg	71,930	64.2	20.4	67.9	2.3	4.9	3.1	0.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
47	517	Blackburn	Kate Hollern	71,234	62.8	22.0	68.5	1.5	3.8	2.4	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
48	516	St Helens South and Whiston	Marie Rimmer	79,061	63.6	18.6	64.1	3.4	6.5	5.8	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
52	512	Wallasey	Angela Eagle	66,310	70.1	22.9	67.8	2.3	2.7	3.2	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
56	508	Blackley and Broughton	Graham Stringer	73,372	52.6	22.6	66.1	2.4	4.3	3.3	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
60	504	Preston	Mark Hendrick	59,672	56.6	23.8	65.8	3.0	3.2	2.8	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
68	496	Salford and Eccles	Rebecca Long-Bailey	82,202	61.6	22.6	61.9	3.6	5.1	5.2	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
71	493	Stretford and Urmston	Kate Green	72,372	69.2	25.5	64.1	3.5	2.1	3.5	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
74	490	Sefton Central	Bill Esterson	69,760	72.9	25.8	61.8	3.9	2.9	3.4	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
80	484	St Helens North	Conor McGinn	75,593	62.9	24.6	58.0	3.3	6.9	5.4	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
88	476	Stockport	Navendu Mishra	65,391	63.8	26.0	57.7	7.2	2.8	4.6	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
90	474	Oldham West and Royton	Jim McMahon	72,999	60.9	28.3	59.4	2.0	4.5	2.4	0.0	3.4	LAB	LAB
98	466	Wythenshawe and Sale East	Mike Kane	76,313	58.7	28.1	58.0	4.1	3.7	4.5	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
105	459	Rochdale	Tony Lloyd	78,909	60.1	29.2	56.8	4.1	4.9	3.2	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
113	451	Bolton South East	Yasmin Qureshi	69,163	58.7	32.3	57.1	2.1	4.4	2.8	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
117	447	Ellesmere Port and Neston	Justin Madders	70,327	69.3	33.4	57.1	2.9	2.7	2.8	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
120	444	Wigan	Lisa Nandy	75,680	59.5	29.8	52.8	3.2	8.0	4.2	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
124	440	Denton and Reddish	Andrew Gwynne	66,234	58.3	32.1	54.5	2.5	4.8	3.9	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
129	435	Lancashire West	Rosie Cooper	73,347	71.8	34.3	55.8	2.9	2.6	3.2	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
137	427	Wirral South	Alison McGovern	57,280	76.0	35.2	55.0	4.0	1.7	3.0	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
144	420	Makerfield	Yvonne Fovargue	74,190	59.7	32.4	51.0	2.8	8.0	3.9	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
156	408	Ashton under Lyne	Angela Rayner	67,978	56.8	35.0	52.4	2.1	5.0	4.1	0.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
160	404	Chester, City of	Chris Matheson	76,057	71.7	36.4	53.4	4.1	1.5	3.5	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
175	389	Worsley and Eccles South	Barbara Keeley	75,219	59.4	36.5	50.4	3.3	4.4	3.9	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
176	388	Stalybridge and Hyde	Jonathan Reynolds	73,064	58.0	36.0	49.5	2.6	5.1	4.3	0.0	2.5	LAB	LAB
180	384	Wirral West	Margaret Greenwood	55,550	77.3	39.2	51.7	3.7	1.2	3.0	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
187	377	Lancaster and Fleetwood	Cat Smith	70,059	64.5	39.6	50.4	2.6	2.4	3.9	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
189	375	Warrington North	Charlotte Nichols	72,235	64.6	38.9	48.6	3.9	3.4	3.7	0.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
190	374	Oldham East and Saddleworth	Debbie Abrahams	72,120	64.0	38.3	47.9	3.1	3.9	2.6	0.0	4.2	LAB	LAB
199	365	Weaver Vale	Mike Amesbury	70,551	71.9	41.8	48.6	3.9	1.7	2.9	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
205	359	Heywood and Middleton	Chris Clarkson	80,162	59.2	41.1	46.3	2.6	5.0	3.6	0.0	1.4	CON	LAB
207	357	Bolton North East	Mark Logan	67,564	64.5	43.4	48.0	2.5	2.6	2.4	0.0	1.1	CON	LAB
208	356	Bury North	James Daly	68,802	68.1	44.3	48.9	2.0	1.6	2.3	0.0	0.9	CON	LAB
209	355	Bury South	Christian Wakeford	75,152	66.9	41.8	46.4	2.7	2.0	2.4	0.0	4.6	CON	LAB
210	354	Burnley	Antony Higginbotham	64,345	60.6	38.3	42.7	5.3	5.2	3.2	0.0	5.2	CON	LAB
216	348	Warrington South	Andy Carter	86,015	72.0	43.6	46.7	5.5	1.6	1.0	0.0	1.7	CON	LAB
221	343	Leigh	James Grundy	77,417	60.7	43.3	45.4	2.8	4.1	0.9	0.0	3.5	CON	LAB
236	328	Hyndburn	Sara Britcliffe	70,842	59.9	46.5	44.9	1.7	3.1	2.7	0.0	1.1	CON	CON
237	327	Southport	Damien Moore	70,837	68.0	45.6	43.8	8.0	0.0	1.1	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
255	309	Workington	Mark Jenkinson	61,370	67.8	47.3	42.6	2.2	2.6	2.2	0.0	3.3	CON	CON
257	307	Altrincham and Sale West	Graham Brady	73,107	74.9	46.1	41.1	6.5	0.0	3.8	0.0	2.6	CON	CON
260	304	Blackpool South	Scott Benton	57,690	56.8	47.6	42.0	1.8	3.7	2.5	0.0	2.3	CON	CON
273	291	Barrow and Furness	Simon Fell	70,158	65.6	49.9	42.5	2.6	1.8	2.2	0.0	1.0	CON	CON
279	285	Copeland	Trudy Harrison	61,693	68.9	51.8	42.5	2.6	0.0	2.3	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
280	284	Morecambe and Lunesdale	David Morris	67,397	67.2	50.8	41.4	3.0	0.0	2.7	0.0	2.0	CON	CON
281	283	Pendle	Andrew Stephenson	65,289	68.1	52.2	42.5	2.1	0.0	2.0	0.0	1.3	CON	CON
288	276	Crewe and Nantwich	Kieran Mullan	80,321	67.3	51.1	40.6	2.9	1.6	2.5	0.0	1.3	CON	CON
300	264	Bolton West	Chris Green	73,191	67.4	53.3	40.1	3.2	0.0	2.5	0.0	0.9	CON	CON
303	261	Macclesfield	David Rutley	76,216	70.7	50.5	36.7	6.2	0.0	5.2	0.0	1.3	CON	CON
306	258	Carlisle	John Stevenson	65,105	65.9	53.2	38.8	3.9	0.0	0.7	0.0	3.4	CON	CON
309	255	Rossendale and Darwen	Jake Berry	72,770	67.1	54.5	39.4	2.4	0.0	3.0	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
310	254	Ribble South	Katherine Fletcher	75,351	71.4	53.8	38.1	4.1	0.0	2.9	0.0	1.0	CON	CON
322	242	Blackpool North and Cleveleys	Paul Maynard	63,692	60.9	55.6	37.8	2.3	0.0	2.4	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
355	209	Cheadle	Mary Robinson	74,577	75.0	44.0	18.9	33.6	0.0	1.5	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
365	199	Wyre and Preston North	Ben Wallace	74,775	70.8	57.7	31.5	5.0	0.0	4.0	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
367	197	Congleton	Fiona Bruce	80,930	70.7	57.0	30.6	6.2	0.0	3.7	0.0	2.4	CON	CON
372	192	Eddisbury	Edward Timpson	73,700	71.9	54.8	28.1	10.7	0.0	3.6	0.0	2.8	CON	CON
380	184	Hazel Grove	William Wragg	63,346	69.9	46.8	19.0	30.6	0.0	1.5	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
381	183	Ribble Valley	Nigel Evans	79,247	69.8	58.3	30.6	5.1	0.0	3.9	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
385	179	Tatton	Esther McVey	69,018	70.9	55.8	27.7	9.3	0.0	5.5	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
404	160	Fylde	Mark Menzies	66,847	69.8	59.0	28.8	4.8	0.0	4.5	0.0	3.1	CON	CON
423	141	Westmorland and Lonsdale	Tim Farron	67,789	77.8	43.3	11.3	40.8	0.9	1.5	0.0	2.2	LIB	CON
426	138	Penrith and The Border	Neil Hudson	67,555	70.8	58.4	25.9	6.6	0.0	5.5	0.0	3.6	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.