North West: Majority Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 36.2%20 21.7%010-1010
LAB 54.9%54 41.3%90+963
LIB 5.4%1 6.0%10+12
UKIP 1.9%0 5.1%00+00
Green 1.1%0 4.4%00+00
ChUK 0.0%0 4.2%00+00
Brexit 0.0%0 15.7%00+00
Minor 0.5%0 1.5%00+00

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Manchester Gorton, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Westmorland and Lonsdale, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Ribble South (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Wirral West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
NAT
%
ChUK
%
Brexit
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
4546Manchester Gorton Mohammed Khan75,36261.06.464.05.73.26.70.04.19.50.00.5LABLAB
8542Liverpool Riverside Louise Ellman76,33262.97.862.15.53.26.50.04.39.70.00.9LABLAB
9541Liverpool Walton Dan Carden62,73867.38.261.94.53.94.50.04.011.90.01.3LABLAB
13537Liverpool West Derby Stephen Twigg65,16469.39.161.74.33.84.40.04.111.50.01.2LABLAB
14536Knowsley George Howarth81,75167.98.858.94.54.44.60.04.013.40.01.3LABLAB
16534Liverpool Wavertree Luciana Berger62,41169.99.659.07.23.35.20.04.610.10.01.0LABLAB
18532Bootle Peter Dowd72,87269.09.959.14.44.14.50.04.012.60.01.3LABLAB
19531Manchester Withington Jeff Smith74,55371.98.457.612.42.36.20.05.47.20.00.6LABLAB
24526Manchester Central Lucy Powell90,26155.19.456.65.34.36.60.04.112.80.01.0LABLAB
28522Blackburn Kate Hollern70,65767.216.060.83.23.03.70.03.69.20.00.5LABLAB
30520Garston and Halewood Maria Eagle75,24871.112.856.65.33.84.40.04.211.70.01.2LABLAB
36514Birkenhead Frank Field64,48467.712.654.54.84.44.60.04.113.50.01.4LABLAB
41509Blackley and Broughton Graham Stringer71,64856.012.152.43.85.35.80.03.715.90.01.1LABLAB
51499Preston Mark Hendrick57,79161.614.050.44.45.25.10.03.915.80.01.2LABLAB
53497Halton Derek Twigg73,45767.414.550.34.15.34.40.03.916.00.01.6LABLAB
59491Oldham West and Royton Jim McMahon72,41863.216.051.03.45.14.70.03.715.20.00.9LABLAB
60490Wallasey Angela Eagle67,45471.715.250.24.34.94.80.04.115.00.01.5LABLAB
66484Stretford and Urmston Kate Green71,84069.916.950.84.34.44.90.04.113.50.01.1LABLAB
79471St Helens South and Whiston Marie Rimmer79,03666.914.646.25.05.85.00.04.117.70.01.6LABLAB
81469Rochdale Tony Lloyd78,06464.116.948.36.24.74.80.04.314.20.00.8LABLAB
86464Salford and Eccles Rebecca Long-Bailey78,08261.014.945.64.65.95.40.03.918.00.01.6LABLAB
94456Stockport Ann Coffey63,42565.517.246.75.54.95.00.04.314.90.01.5LABLAB
97453Bolton South East Yasmin Qureshi68,88661.416.345.43.46.25.30.03.718.60.01.1LABLAB
110440Wythenshawe and Sale East Mike Kane76,36160.017.044.94.85.64.90.04.017.10.01.6LABLAB
121429St Helens North Conor McGinn76,08866.016.943.34.26.24.80.03.918.90.01.8LABLAB
125425Denton and Reddish Andrew Gwynne65,75160.217.043.14.16.24.90.04.018.80.01.9LABLAB
129421Wigan Lisa Nandy75,35963.117.041.73.86.74.70.03.820.30.01.9LABLAB
130420Sefton Central Bill Esterson69,01975.522.346.95.13.84.20.04.511.80.01.3LABLAB
136414Ashton under Lyne Angela Rayner67,67458.818.242.33.76.34.90.03.819.10.01.7LABLAB
139411Makerfield Yvonne Fovargue74,25963.221.144.84.64.93.50.04.115.20.01.8LABLAB
158392Oldham East and Saddleworth Debbie Abrahams72,22365.121.142.14.45.64.60.04.016.90.01.2LABLAB
160390Ellesmere Port and Neston Justin Madders68,66674.222.643.34.15.03.90.03.915.40.01.6LABLAB
167383Lancashire West Rosie Cooper73,25874.223.143.24.24.93.80.04.015.20.01.6LABLAB
168382Stalybridge and Hyde Jonathan Reynolds71,40959.521.841.94.45.44.20.04.116.50.01.7LABLAB
174376Worsley and Eccles South Barbara Keeley73,69261.922.341.44.35.53.90.03.916.90.01.8LABLAB
177373Chester, City of Chris Matheson72,85977.424.943.85.04.13.60.04.212.90.01.5LABLAB
179371Warrington North Helen Jones72,01567.421.440.04.26.04.20.03.818.40.01.8LABLAB
181369Wirral South Alison McGovern57,67078.425.143.55.14.13.90.04.312.60.01.4LABLAB
184366Leigh Joanne Platt76,21161.520.738.53.96.64.50.03.820.00.02.0LABLAB
187363Lancaster and Fleetwood Cat Smith67,17168.523.840.84.84.94.50.04.315.20.01.7LABLAB
188362Burnley Julie Cooper64,71462.318.035.08.66.85.00.04.620.50.01.5LABLAB
192358Bury South Ivan Lewis73,72369.223.940.64.25.24.60.03.916.00.01.6LABLAB
194356Hyndburn Graham Jones73,11061.823.139.73.75.94.40.03.917.90.01.5LABLAB
196354Heywood and Middleton Liz McInnes79,90162.421.237.73.96.74.60.03.820.30.01.8LABLAB
200350Bolton North East David Crausby67,23367.223.539.44.25.84.40.03.917.50.01.4LABLAB
203347Bury North James Frith67,58770.926.942.34.24.43.50.04.113.50.01.3LABLAB
205345Chorley Lindsay Hoyle76,40472.825.841.04.24.93.50.04.015.00.01.6LABLAB
209341Wirral West Margaret Greenwood55,99578.526.941.74.94.13.90.04.312.80.01.4LABLAB
228322Weaver Vale Mike Amesbury69,01673.326.439.24.94.93.80.04.115.10.01.6LABLAB
231319Workington Sue Hayman60,25669.224.236.84.26.24.10.03.818.90.01.9LABLAB
235315Blackpool South Gordon Marsden58,45059.823.234.93.96.84.50.03.820.70.02.2LABLAB
245305Pendle Andrew Stephenson64,96369.028.238.73.75.13.60.03.915.50.01.2CONLAB
246304Warrington South Faisal Rashid85,75572.327.137.36.04.84.00.04.414.80.01.6LABLAB
263287Crewe and Nantwich Laura Smith78,89569.726.934.94.25.94.00.04.018.10.01.9LABLAB
267283Barrow and Furness John Woodcock69,47468.527.635.14.45.64.00.04.017.30.01.9LABLAB
271279Bolton West Chris Green72,79770.128.035.14.55.64.00.04.017.00.01.7CONLAB
286264Morecambe and Lunesdale David Morris66,83868.327.433.24.95.94.30.04.218.10.01.9CONLAB
291259Copeland Trudy Harrison61,75169.528.833.74.55.83.60.03.917.80.01.8CONLAB
293257Blackpool North and Cleveleys Paul Maynard63,96764.127.232.03.86.64.20.03.820.20.02.1CONLAB
294256Carlisle John Stevenson62,29469.127.932.74.46.23.90.03.919.00.02.0CONLAB
296254Rossendale and Darwen Jake Berry72,49569.229.634.04.65.53.60.04.016.90.01.8CONLAB
304246Southport Damien Moore69,40069.124.127.215.65.24.30.05.916.10.01.6CONLAB
308242Altrincham and Sale West Graham Brady73,22072.130.632.77.54.44.50.04.913.80.01.4CONLAB
327223Ribble South Seema Kennedy75,75272.431.129.94.76.13.90.04.018.50.01.9CONCON
329221Macclesfield David Rutley75,22872.230.929.56.45.54.60.04.516.90.01.8CONCON
372178Congleton Fiona Bruce76,69473.333.227.45.65.84.20.04.317.70.01.9CONCON
374176Eddisbury Antoinette Sandbach70,27273.033.227.15.75.94.10.04.218.00.01.8CONCON
381169Fylde Mark Menzies70,32466.133.526.85.65.93.90.04.318.00.02.0CONCON
383167Wyre and Preston North Ben Wallace72,31972.835.328.45.55.23.60.04.316.00.01.7CONCON
388162Ribble Valley Nigel Evans77,96870.834.327.05.85.73.60.04.217.50.01.8CONCON
392158Hazel Grove William Wragg62,68470.428.320.318.85.13.80.06.315.80.01.6CONCON
398151Cheadle Mary Robinson72,78075.027.118.529.93.63.10.05.311.40.01.1CONLIB
417133Tatton Esther McVey67,87472.434.524.77.85.44.40.04.716.70.01.7CONCON
45298Penrith and The Border Rory Stewart65,13971.334.222.16.76.54.40.04.319.90.02.0CONCON
49158Westmorland and Lonsdale Tim Farron66,39177.926.111.235.24.42.80.05.313.70.01.4LIBLIB

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.