| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 18.8% | 3 | 15.6% | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| LAB | 44.8% | 66 | 33.9% | 1 | 10 | -9 | 57 |
| LIB | 7.8% | 3 | 5.8% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 3 |
| Reform | 16.6% | 0 | 24.5% | 8 | 0 | +8 | 8 |
| Green | 7.0% | 0 | 11.5% | 1 | 0 | +1 | 1 |
| Other | 4.9% | 1 | 8.8% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Chorley' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Westmorland and Lonsdale', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Westmorland and Lonsdale (prediction: LIB), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Birkenhead (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 371 | Chorley | Lindsay Hoyle | 74,575 | 45.5 | 5.3 | 50.7 | 2.8 | 16.0 | 17.2 | 8.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 3 | 369 | Manchester Withington | Jeff Smith | 70,549 | 59.2 | 6.7 | 40.4 | 6.1 | 8.8 | 32.9 | 5.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 5 | 367 | Liverpool West Derby | Ian Byrne | 69,934 | 54.3 | 5.2 | 51.6 | 2.7 | 20.9 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 6 | 366 | Liverpool Walton | Dan Carden | 69,317 | 53.2 | 4.6 | 51.6 | 2.3 | 21.3 | 9.5 | 10.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 9 | 363 | Bootle | Peter Dowd | 73,037 | 53.2 | 6.2 | 47.3 | 3.5 | 18.2 | 14.9 | 9.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 10 | 362 | Knowsley | Anneliese Midgley | 72,087 | 50.0 | 2.5 | 55.9 | 0.9 | 26.9 | 3.4 | 10.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 11 | 361 | Liverpool Garston | Maria Eagle | 69,282 | 60.6 | 3.7 | 56.6 | 1.5 | 27.9 | 3.0 | 7.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 13 | 359 | Liverpool Wavertree | Paula Barker | 70,581 | 56.4 | 7.7 | 43.7 | 5.2 | 15.9 | 21.1 | 6.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 20 | 352 | Liverpool Riverside | Kim Johnson | 71,380 | 45.4 | 6.0 | 39.1 | 3.7 | 14.0 | 28.0 | 9.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 21 | 351 | Widnes and Halewood | Derek Twigg | 71,233 | 53.5 | 3.3 | 53.4 | 0.9 | 28.3 | 3.3 | 10.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 25 | 347 | Sefton Central | Bill Esterson | 74,282 | 63.9 | 11.9 | 46.3 | 3.7 | 21.7 | 9.1 | 7.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 27 | 345 | Wallasey | Angela Eagle | 74,082 | 57.7 | 5.9 | 50.8 | 1.8 | 26.6 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 29 | 342 | Manchester Rusholme | Afzal Khan | 72,604 | 40.0 | 6.1 | 33.4 | 2.2 | 10.0 | 41.9 | 6.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Green |
| 32 | 340 | Ellesmere Port and Bromborough | Justin Madders | 70,799 | 59.3 | 3.8 | 53.3 | 1.0 | 30.0 | 3.2 | 8.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 36 | 336 | Stretford and Urmston | Andrew Western | 75,153 | 61.2 | 10.8 | 40.7 | 3.6 | 17.6 | 18.8 | 8.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 39 | 333 | Birkenhead | Alison McGovern | 78,091 | 55.2 | 6.6 | 46.5 | 3.1 | 23.7 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 54 | 318 | Stockport | Navendu Mishra | 76,625 | 57.0 | 10.4 | 40.1 | 5.0 | 20.4 | 15.8 | 8.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 55 | 317 | Wythenshawe and Sale East | Mike Kane | 77,765 | 50.3 | 10.7 | 39.1 | 3.6 | 19.7 | 17.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 61 | 311 | Manchester Central | Lucy Powell | 85,049 | 46.7 | 8.1 | 34.8 | 4.2 | 16.5 | 27.5 | 9.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 62 | 310 | St Helens South and Whiston | Marie Rimmer | 71,569 | 53.1 | 3.3 | 50.9 | 1.1 | 32.8 | 2.9 | 9.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 67 | 305 | Salford | Rebecca Long-Bailey | 83,633 | 47.5 | 8.5 | 35.1 | 4.0 | 17.9 | 23.9 | 10.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 71 | 301 | Preston | Mark Hendrick | 77,400 | 51.7 | 5.2 | 46.3 | 1.6 | 29.7 | 5.6 | 11.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 76 | 296 | Chester North and Neston | Samantha Dixon | 70,215 | 63.7 | 17.2 | 37.8 | 4.5 | 21.5 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 83 | 289 | Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton | Jim McMahon | 73,178 | 52.7 | 3.9 | 47.9 | 0.8 | 33.0 | 4.1 | 10.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 87 | 285 | Worsley and Eccles | Michael Wheeler | 78,643 | 54.1 | 4.9 | 47.3 | 1.0 | 32.7 | 3.9 | 10.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 90 | 282 | St Helens North | David Baines | 75,483 | 53.6 | 3.9 | 48.3 | 1.0 | 34.2 | 3.2 | 9.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 92 | 280 | Bolton South and Walkden | Yasmin Qureshi | 79,622 | 46.4 | 3.8 | 46.1 | 0.8 | 32.4 | 4.6 | 12.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 95 | 277 | Altrincham and Sale West | Connor Rand | 74,025 | 69.5 | 26.6 | 33.1 | 6.4 | 19.4 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 100 | 272 | Wirral West | Matthew Patrick | 72,838 | 68.6 | 22.5 | 36.1 | 6.2 | 23.1 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 102 | 270 | Rochdale | Paul Waugh | 71,264 | 55.7 | 5.6 | 41.9 | 1.9 | 29.0 | 6.3 | 15.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 105 | 267 | Ashton-under-Lyne | Angela Rayner | 71,002 | 49.9 | 3.9 | 45.7 | 0.8 | 33.2 | 4.0 | 12.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 106 | 266 | Blackburn | Adnan Hussain | 73,259 | 53.1 | 9.4 | 30.7 | 3.1 | 18.3 | 14.3 | 24.1 | 0.0 | MIN | LAB |
| 107 | 265 | Makerfield | Josh Simons | 76,845 | 52.4 | 2.2 | 49.1 | 0.6 | 36.7 | 1.4 | 10.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 108 | 264 | Blackley and Middleton South | Graham Stringer | 72,097 | 43.5 | 8.8 | 34.6 | 3.6 | 22.3 | 18.1 | 12.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 109 | 263 | Wigan | Lisa Nandy | 77,537 | 52.7 | 3.7 | 46.4 | 0.9 | 34.2 | 2.9 | 12.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 110 | 262 | Macclesfield | Tim Roca | 76,416 | 69.1 | 23.8 | 34.1 | 5.6 | 22.0 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 112 | 260 | Warrington North | Charlotte Nichols | 70,601 | 56.7 | 4.6 | 45.8 | 1.1 | 33.7 | 3.2 | 11.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 115 | 257 | Runcorn and Helsby | Mike Amesbury | 71,955 | 58.7 | 3.7 | 50.1 | 0.9 | 38.3 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 125 | 247 | Lancaster and Wyre | Cat Smith | 74,760 | 57.5 | 6.1 | 47.2 | 1.0 | 36.5 | 3.2 | 6.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 126 | 246 | Lancashire West | Ashley Dalton | 74,083 | 59.7 | 5.9 | 46.1 | 1.2 | 35.4 | 2.5 | 8.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 137 | 235 | Warrington South | Sarah Edith Hall | 78,399 | 63.4 | 12.5 | 39.5 | 3.8 | 29.3 | 5.1 | 9.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 140 | 232 | Bury South | Christian Wakeford | 75,339 | 56.0 | 7.7 | 43.5 | 1.5 | 33.6 | 4.0 | 9.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 147 | 225 | Stalybridge and Hyde | Jonathan Reynolds | 72,265 | 51.5 | 5.5 | 45.1 | 0.9 | 35.7 | 3.6 | 9.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 167 | 205 | Gorton and Denton | Andrew Gwynne | 78,125 | 46.8 | 5.3 | 32.4 | 2.4 | 24.8 | 30.6 | 4.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 171 | 201 | Leigh and Atherton | Jo Platt | 79,761 | 51.6 | 4.4 | 43.2 | 0.8 | 35.9 | 2.8 | 12.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 178 | 194 | Bury North | James Frith | 77,703 | 58.6 | 21.6 | 31.0 | 4.5 | 24.7 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 179 | 193 | Whitehaven and Workington | Josh MacAlister | 73,198 | 57.2 | 5.2 | 43.4 | 0.9 | 37.4 | 1.7 | 11.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 182 | 190 | Heywood and Middleton North | Elsie Jane Blundell | 74,786 | 49.6 | 5.2 | 42.9 | 1.0 | 37.1 | 2.7 | 11.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 189 | 183 | Cheshire Mid | Andrew Graham Cooper | 70,384 | 59.0 | 6.6 | 43.0 | 1.3 | 37.8 | 2.2 | 9.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 196 | 175 | Tatton | Esther McVey | 75,978 | 68.3 | 32.9 | 26.2 | 6.6 | 21.7 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 204 | 168 | Crewe and Nantwich | Connor Naismith | 78,423 | 60.2 | 6.6 | 42.0 | 1.1 | 38.3 | 2.2 | 9.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 206 | 166 | Oldham East and Saddleworth | Debbie Abrahams | 72,760 | 55.1 | 5.8 | 42.4 | 1.4 | 38.9 | 2.7 | 8.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 216 | 155 | Chester South and Eddisbury | Aphra Brandreth | 74,284 | 70.7 | 33.4 | 24.7 | 7.7 | 22.1 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 217 | 155 | Blackpool South | Chris Webb | 77,459 | 45.4 | 4.7 | 41.1 | 0.8 | 38.6 | 2.8 | 11.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 221 | 151 | Congleton | Sarah Alison Russell | 74,243 | 67.5 | 26.9 | 29.2 | 5.1 | 27.0 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 224 | 148 | Barrow and Furness | Michelle Scrogham | 74,980 | 56.3 | 22.6 | 29.7 | 4.0 | 27.9 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 237 | 135 | Penrith and Solway | Markus Campbell-Savours | 77,935 | 63.2 | 19.6 | 30.8 | 6.1 | 30.0 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 238 | 133 | Cheadle | Tom Morrison | 74,383 | 68.2 | 21.1 | 17.9 | 31.0 | 17.4 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 240 | 132 | Bolton North East | Kirith Entwistle | 80,011 | 54.2 | 6.8 | 40.2 | 1.1 | 39.8 | 3.2 | 8.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 242 | 130 | South Ribble | Paul Andrew Foster | 73,420 | 63.6 | 20.8 | 29.6 | 5.7 | 29.2 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 244 | 128 | Rossendale and Darwen | Andy MacNae | 74,440 | 59.9 | 12.9 | 34.8 | 2.3 | 34.6 | 5.4 | 10.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 244 | 127 | Hazel Grove | Lisa Smart | 72,843 | 63.1 | 17.7 | 21.0 | 25.1 | 21.0 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 253 | 118 | Fylde | Andrew Snowden | 77,100 | 62.2 | 29.4 | 26.3 | 5.5 | 26.9 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 254 | 118 | Morecambe and Lunesdale | Lizzi Collinge | 76,424 | 62.9 | 17.7 | 31.2 | 6.2 | 31.9 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 260 | 111 | Ribble Valley | Maya Ellis | 80,484 | 64.6 | 27.6 | 26.1 | 6.5 | 27.5 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 262 | 110 | Southport | Patrick Brian Hurley | 73,641 | 61.2 | 11.0 | 36.6 | 3.7 | 38.3 | 2.7 | 7.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 264 | 108 | Bolton West | Phil Brickell | 74,933 | 59.5 | 22.8 | 26.5 | 5.2 | 28.2 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 284 | 88 | Carlisle | Julie Minns | 77,863 | 59.1 | 17.0 | 29.5 | 4.5 | 33.2 | 6.0 | 9.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 285 | 87 | Burnley | Oliver Ryan | 74,951 | 53.0 | 7.8 | 36.0 | 3.7 | 39.7 | 2.8 | 10.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 303 | 69 | Hyndburn | Sarah Smith | 76,126 | 47.8 | 20.7 | 22.7 | 4.3 | 28.4 | 13.2 | 10.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 306 | 66 | Blackpool North and Fleetwood | Lorraine Beavers | 73,339 | 57.0 | 21.8 | 25.8 | 4.6 | 32.0 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 307 | 65 | Pendle and Clitheroe | Jonathan James Hinder | 78,796 | 59.3 | 26.4 | 25.1 | 4.2 | 31.7 | 4.9 | 7.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 331 | 40 | Westmorland and Lonsdale | Tim Farron | 72,029 | 68.8 | 18.8 | 11.4 | 38.0 | 19.8 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.