North West: Majority Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 37.5%32 35.7%17-626
LAB 47.3%42 51.3%70+749
LIB 7.9%1 5.1%01-10
Brexit 3.9%0 2.3%00+00
Green 2.5%0 3.3%00+00
Other 1.1%0 2.3%00+00

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Liverpool Walton, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Penrith and The Border, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Cheadle (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Southport (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
1563Liverpool Walton Dan Carden62,62865.18.985.
2562Knowsley George Howarth84,08265.37.383.
3561Bootle Peter Dowd74,83265.78.382.
4560Liverpool Riverside Kim Johnson80,31065.
5559Manchester Gorton Afzal Khan76,41958.38.680.
6558Liverpool West Derby Ian Byrne65,64067.08.580.
10554Liverpool Wavertree Paula Barker63,45868.48.876.
11553Chorley Lindsay Hoyle78,17751.
19545Garston and Halewood Maria Eagle76,11670.111.776.
20544Manchester Withington Jeff Smith76,53069.29.973.
22542Manchester Central Lucy Powell92,24756.713.374.
35529Birkenhead Mick Whitley63,76266.411.861.
45519Halton Derek Twigg71,93064.220.467.
47517Blackburn Kate Hollern71,23462.822.
48516St Helens South and Whiston Marie Rimmer79,06163.618.664.
52512Wallasey Angela Eagle66,31070.122.967.
56508Blackley and Broughton Graham Stringer73,37252.622.666.
60504Preston Mark Hendrick59,67256.623.865.
68496Salford and Eccles Rebecca Long-Bailey82,20261.622.661.
71493Stretford and Urmston Kate Green72,37269.225.564.
74490Sefton Central Bill Esterson69,76072.925.861.
80484St Helens North Conor McGinn75,59362.924.658.
88476Stockport Navendu Mishra65,39163.826.
90474Oldham West and Royton Jim McMahon72,99960.928.359.
98466Wythenshawe and Sale East Mike Kane76,31358.728.
105459Rochdale Tony Lloyd78,90960.
113451Bolton South East Yasmin Qureshi69,16358.732.357.
117447Ellesmere Port and Neston Justin Madders70,32769.333.457.
120444Wigan Lisa Nandy75,68059.529.852.
124440Denton and Reddish Andrew Gwynne66,23458.332.
129435Lancashire West Rosie Cooper73,34771.834.355.
137427Wirral South Alison McGovern57,28076.
144420Makerfield Yvonne Fovargue74,19059.732.451.
156408Ashton under Lyne Angela Rayner67,97856.835.
160404Chester, City of Chris Matheson76,05771.736.453.
175389Worsley and Eccles South Barbara Keeley75,21959.436.550.
176388Stalybridge and Hyde Jonathan Reynolds73,06458.
180384Wirral West Margaret Greenwood55,55077.339.
187377Lancaster and Fleetwood Cat Smith70,05964.539.650.
189375Warrington North Charlotte Nichols72,23564.638.948.
190374Oldham East and Saddleworth Debbie Abrahams72,12064.038.347.
199365Weaver Vale Mike Amesbury70,55171.941.848.
205359Heywood and Middleton Chris Clarkson80,16259.
207357Bolton North East Mark Logan67,56464.543.448.
208356Bury North James Daly68,80268.144.348.
209355Bury South Christian Wakeford75,15266.941.846.
210354Burnley Antony Higginbotham64,34560.638.342.
216348Warrington South Andy Carter86,01572.043.646.
221343Leigh James Grundy77,41760.743.345.
236328Hyndburn Sara Britcliffe70,84259.946.544.
237327Southport Damien Moore70,83768.045.643.
255309Workington Mark Jenkinson61,37067.847.342.
257307Altrincham and Sale West Graham Brady73,10774.946.
260304Blackpool South Scott Benton57,69056.847.642.
273291Barrow and Furness Simon Fell70,15865.649.942.
279285Copeland Trudy Harrison61,69368.951.842.
280284Morecambe and Lunesdale David Morris67,39767.250.841.
281283Pendle Andrew Stephenson65,28968.
288276Crewe and Nantwich Kieran Mullan80,32167.351.
300264Bolton West Chris Green73,19167.453.340.
303261Macclesfield David Rutley76,21670.750.536.
306258Carlisle John Stevenson65,10565.953.
309255Rossendale and Darwen Jake Berry72,77067.154.539.
310254Ribble South Katherine Fletcher75,35171.453.838.
322242Blackpool North and Cleveleys Paul Maynard63,69260.955.637.
355209Cheadle Mary Robinson74,57775.044.018.933.
365199Wyre and Preston North Ben Wallace74,77570.857.731.
367197Congleton Fiona Bruce80,93070.757.
372192Eddisbury Edward Timpson73,70071.954.828.
380184Hazel Grove William Wragg63,34669.946.819.
381183Ribble Valley Nigel Evans79,24769.858.330.
385179Tatton Esther McVey69,01870.955.827.
404160Fylde Mark Menzies66,84769.859.
423141Westmorland and Lonsdale Tim Farron67,78977.843.311.340.
426138Penrith and The Border Neil Hudson67,55570.858.425.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.