North West: Majority Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 36.2%20 31.8%20+222
LAB 54.9%54 48.6%02-252
LIB 5.4%1 7.6%00+01
UKIP 1.9%0 5.3%00+00
Green 1.1%0 3.3%00+00
Minor 0.5%0 3.4%00+00

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Liverpool Walton, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Penrith and The Border, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Macclesfield (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Warrington South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
1570Liverpool Walton Dan Carden62,73867.36.679.
2569Knowsley George Howarth81,75167.
3568Liverpool Riverside Louise Ellman76,33262.97.478.
4567Liverpool West Derby Stephen Twigg65,16469.37.676.
5566Bootle Peter Dowd72,87269.
10561Manchester Gorton Mohammed Khan75,36261.05.670.
11560Liverpool Wavertree Luciana Berger62,41169.
15556Manchester Central Lucy Powell90,26155.110.871.
20551Garston and Halewood Maria Eagle75,24871.113.571.
21550Manchester Withington Jeff Smith74,55371.97.965.417.
23548Birkenhead Frank Field64,48467.714.
31540Halton Derek Twigg73,45767.416.966.
40531Blackley and Broughton Graham Stringer71,64856.016.964.
43528Wallasey Angela Eagle67,45471.718.565.
48523St Helens South and Whiston Marie Rimmer79,03666.917.
55516Preston Mark Hendrick57,79161.619.
57514Blackburn Kate Hollern70,65767.
68503Salford and Eccles Rebecca Long-Bailey78,08261.020.659.
72499Stretford and Urmston Kate Green71,84069.922.860.
80491Oldham West and Royton Jim McMahon72,41863.222.958.
86485St Helens North Conor McGinn76,08866.022.457.
88483Denton and Reddish Andrew Gwynne65,75160.223.357.
91480Stockport Ann Coffey63,42565.523.757.
94477Wigan Lisa Nandy75,35963.123.855.
99472Wythenshawe and Sale East Mike Kane76,36160.024.955.
107464Bolton South East Yasmin Qureshi68,88661.425.
114457Sefton Central Bill Esterson69,01975.528.456.
119452Rochdale Tony Lloyd78,06464.123.751.710.
127444Makerfield Yvonne Fovargue74,25963.226.653.
130441Ashton under Lyne Angela Rayner67,67458.827.354.
154417Ellesmere Port and Neston Justin Madders68,66674.
159412Lancashire West Rosie Cooper73,25874.232.752.
162409Leigh Joanne Platt76,21161.531.
167404Warrington North Helen Jones72,01567.431.950.
172399Stalybridge and Hyde Jonathan Reynolds71,40959.533.450.
173398Wirral South Alison McGovern57,67078.434.
175396Worsley and Eccles South Barbara Keeley73,69261.934.
179392Oldham East and Saddleworth Debbie Abrahams72,22365.132.448.
183388Chester, City of Chris Matheson72,85977.435.850.
185386Burnley Julie Cooper64,71462.326.340.517.
187384Heywood and Middleton Liz McInnes79,90162.433.347.04.510.
188383Lancaster and Fleetwood Cat Smith67,17168.535.948.
192379Chorley Lindsay Hoyle76,40472.837.
194377Hyndburn Graham Jones73,11061.835.847.
197374Wirral West Margaret Greenwood55,99578.537.448.
199372Bury South Ivan Lewis73,72369.236.947.
211360Workington Sue Hayman60,25669.
212359Bury North James Frith67,58770.939.847.
216355Bolton North East David Crausby67,23367.237.544.
220351Weaver Vale Mike Amesbury69,01673.339.
222349Blackpool South Gordon Marsden58,45059.838.444.
235336Warrington South Faisal Rashid85,75572.339.642.
249322Barrow and Furness John Woodcock69,47468.542.341.
252319Crewe and Nantwich Laura Smith78,89569.742.340.
268303Bolton West Chris Green72,79770.
274297Pendle Andrew Stephenson64,96369.044.339.
276295Morecambe and Lunesdale David Morris66,83868.343.
283288Copeland Trudy Harrison61,75169.544.438.
288283Blackpool North and Cleveleys Paul Maynard63,96764.144.738.
294277Carlisle John Stevenson62,29469.
295276Southport Damien Moore69,40069.134.026.328.
297274Rossendale and Darwen Jake Berry72,49569.
320251Altrincham and Sale West Graham Brady73,22072.146.332.610.
325246Ribble South Seema Kennedy75,75272.448.
330241Macclesfield David Rutley75,22872.
375196Congleton Fiona Bruce76,69473.351.927.
379192Wyre and Preston North Ben Wallace72,31972.853.628.
380191Eddisbury Antoinette Sandbach70,27273.
385186Ribble Valley Nigel Evans77,96870.853.
394177Hazel Grove William Wragg62,68470.440.714.
396175Cheadle Mary Robinson72,78075.039.913.
397174Fylde Mark Menzies70,32466.
436135Tatton Esther McVey67,87472.453.922.
450120Westmorland and Lonsdale Tim Farron66,39177.939.66.347.
47299Penrith and The Border Rory Stewart65,13971.355.719.910.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.