| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 18.8% | 3 | 15.7% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 3 |
| LAB | 44.8% | 66 | 35.3% | 1 | 11 | -10 | 56 |
| LIB | 7.8% | 3 | 5.1% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 3 |
| Reform | 16.6% | 0 | 25.0% | 10 | 0 | +10 | 10 |
| Green | 7.0% | 0 | 10.1% | 1 | 0 | +1 | 1 |
| Other | 4.9% | 1 | 8.7% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Chorley' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Westmorland and Lonsdale', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Pendle and Clitheroe (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Manchester Central (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 398 | Chorley | Lindsay Hoyle | 74,575 | 45.5 | 5.4 | 52.2 | 2.4 | 16.5 | 15.6 | 8.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 3 | 396 | Liverpool West Derby | Ian Byrne | 69,934 | 54.3 | 3.6 | 57.0 | 1.3 | 23.2 | 5.4 | 9.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 4 | 395 | Liverpool Walton | Dan Carden | 69,317 | 53.2 | 3.1 | 56.8 | 1.1 | 23.5 | 4.9 | 10.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 5 | 394 | Manchester Withington | Jeff Smith | 70,549 | 59.2 | 6.8 | 42.1 | 5.2 | 9.4 | 31.3 | 5.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 9 | 390 | Bootle | Peter Dowd | 73,037 | 53.2 | 6.0 | 49.7 | 2.8 | 19.1 | 12.6 | 9.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 12 | 387 | Liverpool Wavertree | Paula Barker | 70,581 | 56.4 | 7.8 | 45.3 | 4.5 | 16.5 | 19.6 | 6.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 14 | 385 | Knowsley | Anneliese Midgley | 72,087 | 50.0 | 2.6 | 56.0 | 0.8 | 27.4 | 3.0 | 10.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 15 | 384 | Liverpool Garston | Maria Eagle | 69,282 | 60.6 | 3.8 | 56.8 | 1.3 | 28.4 | 2.5 | 7.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 21 | 378 | Birkenhead | Alison McGovern | 78,091 | 55.2 | 4.5 | 53.0 | 1.6 | 26.4 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 23 | 376 | Liverpool Riverside | Kim Johnson | 71,380 | 45.4 | 6.1 | 40.6 | 3.2 | 14.6 | 26.4 | 9.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 28 | 371 | Wallasey | Angela Eagle | 74,082 | 57.7 | 4.1 | 54.4 | 0.9 | 29.0 | 3.5 | 8.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 30 | 369 | Sefton Central | Bill Esterson | 74,282 | 63.9 | 11.3 | 48.4 | 3.0 | 23.0 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 32 | 367 | Widnes and Halewood | Derek Twigg | 71,233 | 53.5 | 3.3 | 53.5 | 0.8 | 28.8 | 2.8 | 10.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 37 | 361 | Manchester Rusholme | Afzal Khan | 72,604 | 40.0 | 6.2 | 34.8 | 1.9 | 10.4 | 40.3 | 6.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Green |
| 41 | 358 | Stretford and Urmston | Andrew Western | 75,153 | 61.2 | 11.0 | 42.2 | 3.1 | 18.1 | 17.2 | 8.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 45 | 354 | Stockport | Navendu Mishra | 76,625 | 57.0 | 8.1 | 46.5 | 3.2 | 23.3 | 10.6 | 8.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 46 | 353 | Ellesmere Port and Bromborough | Justin Madders | 70,799 | 59.3 | 3.8 | 53.4 | 0.9 | 30.6 | 2.7 | 8.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 60 | 339 | Wythenshawe and Sale East | Mike Kane | 77,765 | 50.3 | 10.9 | 40.5 | 3.1 | 20.3 | 15.4 | 9.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 67 | 332 | Manchester Central | Lucy Powell | 85,049 | 46.7 | 8.2 | 36.3 | 3.6 | 17.0 | 25.9 | 8.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 75 | 324 | Salford | Rebecca Long-Bailey | 83,633 | 47.5 | 8.7 | 36.6 | 3.5 | 18.4 | 22.3 | 10.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 80 | 319 | St Helens South and Whiston | Marie Rimmer | 71,569 | 53.1 | 3.4 | 51.0 | 0.9 | 33.3 | 2.4 | 9.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 85 | 314 | Preston | Mark Hendrick | 77,400 | 51.7 | 4.3 | 48.3 | 1.0 | 31.0 | 3.8 | 11.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 87 | 312 | Chester North and Neston | Samantha Dixon | 70,215 | 63.7 | 17.3 | 39.3 | 3.9 | 22.1 | 9.4 | 8.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 94 | 305 | Blackley and Middleton South | Graham Stringer | 72,097 | 43.5 | 7.4 | 39.8 | 2.4 | 24.4 | 13.4 | 12.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 99 | 300 | Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton | Jim McMahon | 73,178 | 52.7 | 4.0 | 48.2 | 0.6 | 33.4 | 3.6 | 10.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 101 | 298 | Altrincham and Sale West | Connor Rand | 74,025 | 69.5 | 26.8 | 34.7 | 5.5 | 20.1 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 110 | 289 | Worsley and Eccles | Michael Wheeler | 78,643 | 54.1 | 4.9 | 47.3 | 0.8 | 33.3 | 3.4 | 10.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 111 | 288 | Wirral West | Matthew Patrick | 72,838 | 68.6 | 22.7 | 37.5 | 5.3 | 23.7 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 113 | 286 | St Helens North | David Baines | 75,483 | 53.6 | 4.0 | 48.3 | 0.8 | 34.7 | 2.7 | 9.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 114 | 285 | Blackburn | Adnan Hussain | 73,259 | 53.1 | 9.6 | 32.2 | 2.7 | 18.7 | 12.7 | 24.0 | 0.0 | MIN | LAB |
| 115 | 284 | Rochdale | Paul Waugh | 71,264 | 55.7 | 5.0 | 43.6 | 1.3 | 30.1 | 4.6 | 15.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 116 | 283 | Bolton South and Walkden | Yasmin Qureshi | 79,622 | 46.4 | 3.8 | 46.3 | 0.7 | 32.8 | 4.2 | 12.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 122 | 277 | Macclesfield | Tim Roca | 76,416 | 69.1 | 23.9 | 35.6 | 4.8 | 22.6 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 130 | 269 | Makerfield | Josh Simons | 76,845 | 52.4 | 2.3 | 49.2 | 0.5 | 37.0 | 1.2 | 9.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 132 | 267 | Ashton-under-Lyne | Angela Rayner | 71,002 | 49.9 | 4.0 | 45.8 | 0.7 | 33.7 | 3.5 | 12.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 134 | 265 | Wigan | Lisa Nandy | 77,537 | 52.7 | 3.7 | 46.5 | 0.8 | 34.6 | 2.4 | 12.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 137 | 262 | Warrington North | Charlotte Nichols | 70,601 | 56.7 | 4.6 | 45.8 | 0.9 | 34.2 | 2.7 | 11.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 140 | 259 | Runcorn and Helsby | Mike Amesbury | 71,955 | 58.7 | 3.8 | 50.2 | 0.7 | 38.8 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 148 | 251 | Warrington South | Sarah Edith Hall | 78,399 | 63.4 | 11.7 | 41.0 | 3.0 | 30.6 | 4.0 | 9.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 150 | 249 | Lancashire West | Ashley Dalton | 74,083 | 59.7 | 5.9 | 46.2 | 1.0 | 35.9 | 2.1 | 8.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 152 | 247 | Lancaster and Wyre | Cat Smith | 74,760 | 57.5 | 6.2 | 47.2 | 0.8 | 37.0 | 2.7 | 6.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 161 | 238 | Bury South | Christian Wakeford | 75,339 | 56.0 | 7.0 | 44.5 | 1.1 | 34.9 | 2.9 | 9.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 170 | 229 | Stalybridge and Hyde | Jonathan Reynolds | 72,265 | 51.5 | 5.6 | 45.2 | 0.7 | 36.1 | 3.1 | 9.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 178 | 221 | Gorton and Denton | Andrew Gwynne | 78,125 | 46.8 | 5.4 | 33.7 | 2.1 | 25.3 | 29.1 | 4.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 185 | 214 | Bury North | James Frith | 77,703 | 58.6 | 21.8 | 32.5 | 3.9 | 25.2 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 196 | 203 | Leigh and Atherton | Jo Platt | 79,761 | 51.6 | 4.4 | 43.2 | 0.7 | 36.5 | 2.4 | 12.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 203 | 196 | Whitehaven and Workington | Josh MacAlister | 73,198 | 57.2 | 5.3 | 43.4 | 0.8 | 37.7 | 1.5 | 11.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 204 | 195 | Heywood and Middleton North | Elsie Jane Blundell | 74,786 | 49.6 | 5.2 | 43.1 | 0.9 | 37.5 | 2.2 | 11.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 204 | 194 | Tatton | Esther McVey | 75,978 | 68.3 | 33.1 | 27.6 | 5.7 | 22.3 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 212 | 187 | Cheshire Mid | Andrew Graham Cooper | 70,384 | 59.0 | 6.6 | 43.1 | 1.1 | 38.3 | 1.8 | 9.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 222 | 176 | Chester South and Eddisbury | Aphra Brandreth | 74,284 | 70.7 | 33.5 | 26.3 | 6.6 | 22.7 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 225 | 174 | Crewe and Nantwich | Connor Naismith | 78,423 | 60.2 | 6.6 | 42.1 | 1.0 | 38.7 | 1.8 | 9.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 228 | 171 | Oldham East and Saddleworth | Debbie Abrahams | 72,760 | 55.1 | 5.9 | 42.6 | 1.2 | 39.4 | 2.2 | 8.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 231 | 168 | Congleton | Sarah Alison Russell | 74,243 | 67.5 | 27.1 | 30.4 | 4.4 | 27.4 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 244 | 155 | Barrow and Furness | Michelle Scrogham | 74,980 | 56.3 | 22.0 | 31.2 | 3.3 | 29.0 | 5.3 | 9.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 245 | 154 | Blackpool South | Chris Webb | 77,459 | 45.4 | 4.8 | 41.2 | 0.7 | 39.1 | 2.4 | 11.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 252 | 146 | Cheadle | Tom Morrison | 74,383 | 68.2 | 21.3 | 19.5 | 29.8 | 18.0 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 254 | 145 | Penrith and Solway | Markus Campbell-Savours | 77,935 | 63.2 | 18.6 | 32.7 | 4.9 | 31.5 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 254 | 144 | Hazel Grove | Lisa Smart | 72,843 | 63.1 | 17.8 | 22.7 | 23.9 | 21.6 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 257 | 142 | South Ribble | Paul Andrew Foster | 73,420 | 63.6 | 19.8 | 31.5 | 4.6 | 30.7 | 5.1 | 8.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 264 | 134 | Fylde | Andrew Snowden | 77,100 | 62.2 | 29.5 | 27.6 | 4.7 | 27.3 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 266 | 133 | Rossendale and Darwen | Andy MacNae | 74,440 | 59.9 | 12.0 | 36.1 | 1.8 | 36.0 | 4.1 | 10.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 267 | 132 | Bolton North East | Kirith Entwistle | 80,011 | 54.2 | 6.9 | 40.3 | 0.9 | 40.4 | 2.7 | 8.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 271 | 128 | Morecambe and Lunesdale | Lizzi Collinge | 76,424 | 62.9 | 15.3 | 34.2 | 4.4 | 34.7 | 3.6 | 7.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 274 | 125 | Ribble Valley | Maya Ellis | 80,484 | 64.6 | 27.7 | 27.3 | 5.5 | 28.0 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 277 | 122 | Bolton West | Phil Brickell | 74,933 | 59.5 | 23.0 | 28.0 | 4.5 | 28.8 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 293 | 106 | Southport | Patrick Brian Hurley | 73,641 | 61.2 | 8.1 | 39.4 | 2.0 | 41.5 | 1.5 | 7.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 304 | 95 | Carlisle | Julie Minns | 77,863 | 59.1 | 14.0 | 32.8 | 3.0 | 36.4 | 4.0 | 9.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 306 | 93 | Burnley | Oliver Ryan | 74,951 | 53.0 | 6.2 | 38.1 | 2.2 | 41.9 | 1.7 | 9.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 317 | 82 | Hyndburn | Sarah Smith | 76,126 | 47.8 | 20.8 | 24.2 | 3.7 | 28.9 | 11.7 | 10.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 324 | 75 | Blackpool North and Fleetwood | Lorraine Beavers | 73,339 | 57.0 | 22.0 | 27.0 | 3.9 | 32.4 | 5.7 | 9.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 332 | 67 | Pendle and Clitheroe | Jonathan James Hinder | 78,796 | 59.3 | 26.6 | 26.1 | 3.6 | 32.0 | 4.1 | 7.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 353 | 45 | Westmorland and Lonsdale | Tim Farron | 72,029 | 68.8 | 18.9 | 13.0 | 36.8 | 20.4 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.