North West: Majority Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 36.2%20 31.9%00+020
LAB 54.9%54 51.6%00+054
LIB 5.4%1 8.1%00+01
UKIP 1.9%0 4.7%00+00
Green 1.1%0 2.2%00+00
Minor 0.5%0 1.5%00+00

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Liverpool Walton, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Penrith and The Border, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Macclesfield (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Warrington South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
1567Liverpool Walton Dan Carden62,73867.36.682.53.41.92.00.02.90.6LABLAB
2566Knowsley George Howarth81,75167.97.182.14.14.31.70.00.00.6LABLAB
3565Liverpool Riverside Louise Ellman76,33262.97.481.34.52.04.10.00.00.7LABLAB
4564Liverpool West Derby Stephen Twigg65,16469.37.679.53.22.11.50.04.81.3LABLAB
5563Bootle Peter Dowd72,87269.09.380.83.92.22.30.00.01.6LABLAB
10558Manchester Gorton Mohammed Khan75,36261.05.673.17.53.93.00.05.71.3LABLAB
11557Liverpool Wavertree Luciana Berger62,41169.99.376.38.72.22.30.00.01.2LABLAB
15553Manchester Central Lucy Powell90,26155.110.974.15.85.42.70.00.01.2LABLAB
20548Garston and Halewood Maria Eagle75,24871.113.674.45.92.72.50.00.00.9LABLAB
21547Manchester Withington Jeff Smith74,55371.97.968.418.02.12.40.00.01.1LABLAB
23545Birkenhead Frank Field64,48467.714.273.65.32.83.30.00.00.9LABLAB
31537Halton Derek Twigg73,45767.417.069.74.75.91.20.00.01.6LABLAB
41527Blackley and Broughton Graham Stringer71,64856.017.067.24.77.52.30.00.01.4LABLAB
43525Wallasey Angela Eagle67,45471.718.668.24.55.32.50.00.00.9LABLAB
48520St Helens South and Whiston Marie Rimmer79,03666.917.264.66.86.63.80.00.00.9LABLAB
55513Preston Mark Hendrick57,79161.619.264.76.26.72.10.00.00.9LABLAB
57511Blackburn Kate Hollern70,65767.222.366.54.42.91.20.01.80.9LABLAB
68500Salford and Eccles Rebecca Long-Bailey78,08261.020.762.25.67.82.90.00.00.9LABLAB
72496Stretford and Urmston Kate Green71,84069.922.963.54.95.12.40.00.01.2LABLAB
80488Oldham West and Royton Jim McMahon72,41863.223.061.95.07.12.10.00.00.9LABLAB
86482St Helens North Conor McGinn76,08866.022.560.55.47.13.60.00.00.9LABLAB
88480Denton and Reddish Andrew Gwynne65,75160.223.460.35.07.52.40.00.01.5LABLAB
90478Stockport Ann Coffey63,42565.523.860.07.15.52.60.00.00.9LABLAB
93475Wigan Lisa Nandy75,35963.123.958.94.88.72.70.00.00.9LABLAB
99469Wythenshawe and Sale East Mike Kane76,36160.025.058.96.16.12.40.00.01.3LABLAB
107461Bolton South East Yasmin Qureshi68,88661.425.057.44.79.52.40.00.00.9LABLAB
114454Sefton Central Bill Esterson69,01975.528.459.85.52.92.40.00.00.9LABLAB
119449Rochdale Tony Lloyd78,06464.123.854.710.96.21.20.01.81.4LABLAB
128440Makerfield Yvonne Fovargue74,25963.226.756.95.72.91.20.05.70.9LABLAB
131437Ashton under Lyne Angela Rayner67,67458.827.357.14.57.62.50.00.00.9LABLAB
154414Ellesmere Port and Neston Justin Madders68,66674.232.255.94.64.51.80.00.00.9LABLAB
159409Lancashire West Rosie Cooper73,25874.232.855.64.82.92.40.00.01.4LABLAB
162406Leigh Joanne Platt76,21161.531.252.94.98.91.20.00.00.9LABLAB
167401Warrington North Helen Jones72,01567.432.053.15.46.12.40.00.00.9LABLAB
172396Stalybridge and Hyde Jonathan Reynolds71,40959.533.553.95.22.93.50.00.00.9LABLAB
173395Wirral South Alison McGovern57,67078.434.254.05.82.92.20.00.00.9LABLAB
175393Worsley and Eccles South Barbara Keeley73,69261.934.153.85.22.93.00.00.00.9LABLAB
179389Oldham East and Saddleworth Debbie Abrahams72,22365.132.551.26.47.81.20.00.00.9LABLAB
183385Chester, City of Chris Matheson72,85977.435.953.55.62.91.20.00.00.9LABLAB
185383Burnley Julie Cooper64,71462.326.443.517.99.12.30.00.00.9LABLAB
187381Heywood and Middleton Liz McInnes79,90162.433.450.05.09.41.20.00.00.9LABLAB
188380Lancaster and Fleetwood Cat Smith67,17168.536.051.85.42.92.90.00.00.9LABLAB
192376Chorley Lindsay Hoyle76,40472.837.152.04.92.92.10.00.00.9LABLAB
195373Hyndburn Graham Jones73,11061.835.950.14.77.21.20.00.00.9LABLAB
197371Wirral West Margaret Greenwood55,99578.537.551.05.52.92.10.00.00.9LABLAB
199369Bury South Ivan Lewis73,72369.237.050.05.05.51.20.00.01.4LABLAB
211357Workington Sue Hayman60,25669.237.147.95.66.71.20.00.01.6LABLAB
212356Bury North James Frith67,58770.939.950.34.82.91.20.00.00.9LABLAB
216352Bolton North East David Crausby67,23367.237.647.35.86.42.00.00.00.9LABLAB
220348Weaver Vale Mike Amesbury69,01673.339.148.26.12.92.70.00.00.9LABLAB
222346Blackpool South Gordon Marsden58,45059.838.547.04.76.82.10.00.00.9LABLAB
234334Warrington South Faisal Rashid85,75572.339.645.18.32.91.20.00.02.9LABLAB
249319Barrow and Furness John Woodcock69,47468.542.444.25.64.91.90.00.00.9LABLAB
251317Crewe and Nantwich Laura Smith78,89569.742.443.85.36.41.20.00.00.9LABLAB
267301Bolton West Chris Green72,79770.143.342.85.86.01.20.00.00.9CONCON
273295Pendle Andrew Stephenson64,96369.044.442.95.02.92.30.01.60.9CONCON
274294Morecambe and Lunesdale David Morris66,83868.343.141.36.65.82.20.00.00.9CONCON
283285Copeland Trudy Harrison61,75169.544.441.86.15.51.20.00.00.9CONCON
287281Blackpool North and Cleveleys Paul Maynard63,96764.144.841.24.76.32.10.00.00.9CONCON
294274Carlisle John Stevenson62,29469.145.240.65.86.31.20.00.00.9CONCON
295273Southport Damien Moore69,40069.134.029.329.35.31.20.00.00.9CONCON
296272Rossendale and Darwen Jake Berry72,49569.246.241.16.02.92.80.00.00.9CONCON
319249Altrincham and Sale West Graham Brady73,22072.146.435.610.52.93.10.00.01.5CONCON
323245Ribble South Seema Kennedy75,75272.448.236.06.65.52.10.00.01.6CONCON
330238Macclesfield David Rutley75,22872.248.033.59.02.93.40.00.03.1CONCON
370198Congleton Fiona Bruce76,69473.352.030.98.05.22.90.00.00.9CONCON
376192Wyre and Preston North Ben Wallace72,31972.853.731.77.72.93.00.00.00.9CONCON
377191Eddisbury Antoinette Sandbach70,27273.052.330.38.35.12.70.00.01.3CONCON
383185Ribble Valley Nigel Evans77,96870.853.230.68.72.93.50.00.00.9CONCON
392176Hazel Grove William Wragg62,68470.440.817.235.82.92.30.00.00.9CONCON
394174Cheadle Mary Robinson72,78075.040.016.039.12.91.10.00.00.9CONCON
395173Fylde Mark Menzies70,32466.154.230.17.92.93.90.00.00.9CONCON
434134Tatton Esther McVey67,87472.453.925.211.92.93.20.00.02.8CONCON
462105Westmorland and Lonsdale Tim Farron66,39177.939.77.748.12.30.90.00.01.3LIBLIB
47098Penrith and The Border Rory Stewart65,13971.355.822.910.75.43.40.00.01.8CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.