North West: Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	18.8%	3	17.3%	0	1	-1	2
LAB	44.8%	66	29.1%	0	36	-36	30
LIB	7.8%	3	11.4%	0	0	+0	3
Reform	16.6%	0	28.6%	37	0	+37	37
Green	7.0%	0	9.9%	0	0	+0	0
Other	4.9%	1	3.8%	0	0	+0	1

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Chorley' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Fylde', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Fylde (prediction: Reform), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Chorley (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2024	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	MIN %	OTH %	2024 Win	Pred Win
1	271	Chorley	Lindsay Hoyle	74,575	45.5	6.3	45.2	10.2	18.3	15.2	0.0	4.7	LAB	LAB
2	270	Liverpool Walton	Dan Carden	69,317	53.2	6.7	45.1	9.0	25.8	11.7	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
5	267	Bootle	Peter Dowd	73,037	53.2	7.1	44.0	8.6	23.1	14.0	3.3	0.0	LAB	LAB
7	265	Liverpool West Derby	Ian Byrne	69,934	54.3	7.1	43.8	10.5	23.2	12.0	0.0	3.3	LAB	LAB
12	260	Knowsley	Anneliese Midgley	72,087	50.0	7.4	42.3	8.8	26.9	12.0	2.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
17	255	Liverpool Wavertree	Paula Barker	70,581	56.4	7.0	39.8	12.8	16.8	20.9	0.0	2.7	LAB	LAB
18	254	Liverpool Garston	Maria Eagle	69,282	60.6	8.6	40.7	14.4	19.7	12.1	0.0	4.6	LAB	LAB
20	252	Liverpool Riverside	Kim Johnson	71,380	45.4	6.5	38.1	11.6	20.5	21.1	0.0	2.3	LAB	LAB
22	250	Manchester Withington	Jeff Smith	70,549	59.2	7.1	37.8	15.2	11.2	23.8	4.7	0.2	LAB	LAB
25	247	Widnes and Halewood	Derek Twigg	71,233	53.5	10.2	39.9	8.7	28.5	9.5	3.3	0.0	LAB	LAB
29	243	Wallasey	Angela Eagle	74,082	57.7	11.3	38.9	9.0	25.2	12.7	2.5	0.5	LAB	LAB
33	239	Birkenhead	Alison McGovern	78,091	55.2	8.7	34.8	10.5	23.7	20.9	0.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
39	233	Ellesmere Port and Bromborough	Justin Madders	70,799	59.3	13.2	38.2	10.4	27.6	9.0	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
46	226	Salford	Rebecca Long-Bailey	83,633	47.5	9.4	33.6	10.7	25.2	17.3	3.3	0.5	LAB	LAB
49	223	St Helens South and Whiston	Marie Rimmer	71,569	53.1	9.7	33.4	12.6	28.3	10.9	0.0	5.1	LAB	LAB
52	220	Manchester Rusholme	Afzal Khan	72,604	40.0	8.3	32.0	7.3	16.9	25.2	9.6	0.7	LAB	LAB
55	217	Manchester Central	Lucy Powell	85,049	46.7	8.6	32.1	11.3	22.4	20.0	4.9	0.8	LAB	LAB
59	213	St Helens North	David Baines	75,483	53.6	11.2	34.2	9.5	32.4	11.3	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
63	209	Sefton Central	Bill Esterson	74,282	63.9	17.2	39.5	11.0	21.7	9.1	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
64	208	Gorton and Denton	Andrew Gwynne	78,125	46.8	10.2	32.3	8.1	25.3	15.5	8.7	0.0	LAB	LAB
68	203	Blackley and Middleton South	Graham Stringer	72,097	43.5	11.0	32.3	9.5	33.3	12.7	0.0	1.3	LAB	Reform
69	203	Stretford and Urmston	Andrew Western	75,153	61.2	13.2	34.4	9.0	21.3	12.9	9.0	0.3	LAB	LAB
70	202	Stockport	Navendu Mishra	76,625	57.0	12.7	33.4	12.3	24.1	12.5	4.7	0.3	LAB	LAB
74	198	Runcorn and Helsby	Mike Amesbury	71,955	58.7	14.8	35.1	10.4	29.6	8.6	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
89	183	Wythenshawe and Sale East	Mike Kane	77,765	50.3	14.1	33.3	9.8	27.3	11.9	2.9	0.7	LAB	LAB
91	180	Wigan	Lisa Nandy	77,537	52.7	12.2	30.8	11.1	34.3	7.0	0.0	4.6	LAB	Reform
101	171	Lancashire West	Ashley Dalton	74,083	59.7	17.2	33.6	9.8	29.4	8.8	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
102	169	Makerfield	Josh Simons	76,845	52.4	13.0	29.1	10.3	39.4	6.6	0.0	1.7	LAB	Reform
104	167	Worsley and Eccles	Michael Wheeler	78,643	54.1	15.6	31.3	9.1	31.4	9.6	1.7	1.3	LAB	Reform
105	166	Warrington North	Charlotte Nichols	70,601	56.7	15.3	30.8	10.9	34.2	7.1	0.0	1.7	LAB	Reform
108	164	Chester North and Neston	Samantha Dixon	70,215	63.7	19.5	34.7	10.1	23.5	11.1	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
109	162	Whitehaven and Workington	Josh MacAlister	73,198	57.2	16.4	30.8	8.0	38.2	5.8	0.0	0.8	LAB	Reform
110	161	Ashton-under-Lyne	Angela Rayner	71,002	49.9	14.0	27.6	7.6	34.8	8.4	7.7	0.0	LAB	Reform
116	155	Leigh and Atherton	Jo Platt	79,761	51.6	15.4	27.7	8.5	40.0	7.1	0.0	1.4	LAB	Reform
123	148	Bolton South and Walkden	Yasmin Qureshi	79,622	46.4	14.0	25.2	7.7	34.0	8.8	9.8	0.5	LAB	Reform
123	148	Stalybridge and Hyde	Jonathan Reynolds	72,265	51.5	17.3	28.5	8.3	31.8	8.9	3.5	1.7	LAB	Reform
123	148	Blackpool South	Chris Webb	77,459	45.4	15.4	26.0	8.3	41.8	7.0	0.0	1.5	LAB	Reform
131	140	Lancaster and Wyre	Cat Smith	74,760	57.5	18.2	27.9	8.8	31.4	12.9	0.0	0.8	LAB	Reform
133	139	Warrington South	Sarah Edith Hall	78,399	63.4	20.7	30.1	11.6	28.2	8.2	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
136	135	Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton	Jim McMahon	73,178	52.7	13.9	23.2	8.7	29.3	7.0	15.1	2.8	LAB	Reform
136	135	Preston	Mark Hendrick	77,400	51.7	14.6	23.8	10.8	25.8	7.3	16.4	1.3	LAB	Reform
137	134	Heywood and Middleton North	Elsie Jane Blundell	74,786	49.6	17.2	26.3	12.0	35.1	4.3	0.0	5.1	LAB	Reform
137	134	Rochdale	Paul Waugh	71,264	55.7	13.6	22.7	9.2	27.3	5.8	21.4	0.0	LAB	Reform
143	129	Wirral West	Matthew Patrick	72,838	68.6	22.9	31.0	10.9	23.8	10.5	0.0	0.9	LAB	LAB
144	127	Cheshire Mid	Andrew Graham Cooper	70,384	59.0	19.7	27.8	10.3	32.4	7.9	0.0	1.8	LAB	Reform
144	127	Bury South	Christian Wakeford	75,339	56.0	20.1	28.1	8.8	30.1	9.3	2.7	0.9	LAB	Reform
148	123	Crewe and Nantwich	Connor Naismith	78,423	60.2	19.7	27.1	9.2	34.2	7.5	1.1	1.2	LAB	Reform
150	122	Macclesfield	Tim Roca	76,416	69.1	23.9	31.0	10.1	25.4	8.1	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
154	117	Oldham East and Saddleworth	Debbie Abrahams	72,760	55.1	17.2	24.0	11.5	30.1	6.2	9.2	1.9	LAB	Reform
155	116	Blackburn	Adnan Hussain	73,259	53.1	13.0	19.6	5.9	23.3	7.1	31.1	0.0	MIN	MIN
165	106	Southport	Patrick Brian Hurley	73,641	61.2	20.7	25.1	14.2	30.8	7.7	0.0	1.5	LAB	Reform
167	104	Bury North	James Frith	77,703	58.6	23.5	26.8	7.9	30.1	7.0	3.9	0.9	LAB	Reform
168	103	Burnley	Oliver Ryan	74,951	53.0	19.1	22.0	18.9	31.9	6.4	0.0	1.6	LAB	Reform
168	103	Bolton North East	Kirith Entwistle	80,011	54.2	19.7	22.3	7.7	35.1	11.2	3.4	0.7	LAB	Reform
171	100	Penrith and Solway	Markus Campbell-Savours	77,935	63.2	23.3	25.1	11.8	33.2	6.0	0.0	0.7	LAB	Reform
174	97	Morecambe and Lunesdale	Lizzi Collinge	76,424	62.9	23.9	25.0	12.8	30.9	6.9	0.0	0.5	LAB	Reform
175	97	Altrincham and Sale West	Connor Rand	74,025	69.5	26.8	27.8	12.0	20.8	10.1	2.5	0.0	LAB	LAB
176	95	South Ribble	Paul Andrew Foster	73,420	63.6	25.3	26.0	9.7	31.9	6.5	0.0	0.6	LAB	Reform
178	93	Rossendale and Darwen	Andy MacNae	74,440	59.9	24.7	24.4	7.0	34.3	7.8	1.8	0.0	LAB	Reform
179	92	Barrow and Furness	Michelle Scrogham	74,980	56.3	25.9	25.4	8.4	33.0	6.5	0.0	0.7	LAB	Reform
181	90	Carlisle	Julie Minns	77,863	59.1	23.9	23.1	9.9	35.1	7.0	0.0	1.0	LAB	Reform
181	90	Hazel Grove	Lisa Smart	72,843	63.1	18.8	17.7	28.3	27.3	6.9	0.0	1.0	LIB	LIB
184	87	Bolton West	Phil Brickell	74,933	59.5	25.9	23.6	8.5	30.4	10.8	0.0	0.8	LAB	Reform
186	85	Blackpool North and Fleetwood	Lorraine Beavers	73,339	57.0	25.8	23.0	7.6	36.5	6.1	0.0	1.0	LAB	Reform
186	85	Hyndburn	Sarah Smith	76,126	47.8	23.1	19.9	7.5	36.5	12.2	0.0	0.9	LAB	Reform
187	84	Congleton	Sarah Alison Russell	74,243	67.5	26.3	22.9	11.4	29.1	7.9	0.0	2.4	LAB	Reform
194	77	Ribble Valley	Maya Ellis	80,484	64.6	27.5	21.0	12.8	30.5	6.9	0.0	1.3	LAB	Reform
196	75	Pendle and Clitheroe	Jonathan James Hinder	78,796	59.3	28.1	21.2	9.2	32.7	6.2	0.4	2.3	LAB	Reform
200	71	Cheadle	Tom Morrison	74,383	68.2	21.6	14.4	33.6	21.0	6.7	2.5	0.2	LIB	LIB
201	71	Chester South and Eddisbury	Aphra Brandreth	74,284	70.7	29.5	22.0	13.1	27.3	6.9	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
202	70	Tatton	Esther McVey	75,978	68.3	31.6	24.0	11.8	24.2	7.9	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
203	68	Westmorland and Lonsdale	Tim Farron	72,029	68.8	16.5	8.3	43.4	25.5	5.6	0.0	0.8	LIB	LIB
205	66	Fylde	Andrew Snowden	77,100	62.2	28.0	19.2	11.0	31.0	7.0	0.0	3.7	CON	Reform

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.