North West: Majority Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 36.2%20 31.8%20+222
LAB 54.9%54 48.6%02-252
LIB 5.4%1 7.6%00+01
UKIP 1.9%0 5.3%00+00
Green 1.1%0 3.3%00+00
Minor 0.5%0 3.4%00+00

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Liverpool Walton, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Penrith and The Border, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Macclesfield (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Warrington South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
1570Liverpool Walton Dan Carden62,73867.36.679.53.32.62.90.02.92.2LABLAB
2569Knowsley George Howarth81,75167.97.179.13.95.02.70.00.02.3LABLAB
3568Liverpool Riverside Louise Ellman76,33262.97.478.34.32.75.00.00.02.3LABLAB
4567Liverpool West Derby Stephen Twigg65,16469.37.676.53.02.72.50.04.83.0LABLAB
5566Bootle Peter Dowd72,87269.09.277.83.62.93.30.00.03.3LABLAB
10561Manchester Gorton Mohammed Khan75,36261.05.670.17.44.63.90.05.72.8LABLAB
11560Liverpool Wavertree Luciana Berger62,41169.99.273.38.52.93.20.00.02.9LABLAB
15556Manchester Central Lucy Powell90,26155.110.871.15.46.03.70.00.03.0LABLAB
20551Garston and Halewood Maria Eagle75,24871.113.571.45.43.33.50.00.02.8LABLAB
21550Manchester Withington Jeff Smith74,55371.97.965.417.82.83.40.00.02.8LABLAB
23548Birkenhead Frank Field64,48467.714.170.64.83.44.30.00.02.8LABLAB
31540Halton Derek Twigg73,45767.416.966.74.16.52.20.00.03.6LABLAB
40531Blackley and Broughton Graham Stringer71,64856.016.964.24.28.03.40.00.03.4LABLAB
43528Wallasey Angela Eagle67,45471.718.565.23.95.93.50.00.02.9LABLAB
48523St Helens South and Whiston Marie Rimmer79,03666.917.161.66.37.24.90.00.02.9LABLAB
55516Preston Mark Hendrick57,79161.619.161.75.77.33.20.00.02.9LABLAB
57514Blackburn Kate Hollern70,65767.222.263.53.83.52.20.01.82.9LABLAB
68503Salford and Eccles Rebecca Long-Bailey78,08261.020.659.25.08.33.90.00.02.9LABLAB
72499Stretford and Urmston Kate Green71,84069.922.860.54.35.73.50.00.03.2LABLAB
80491Oldham West and Royton Jim McMahon72,41863.222.958.94.47.63.20.00.02.9LABLAB
86485St Helens North Conor McGinn76,08866.022.457.54.97.74.70.00.02.9LABLAB
88483Denton and Reddish Andrew Gwynne65,75160.223.357.34.58.03.50.00.03.5LABLAB
91480Stockport Ann Coffey63,42565.523.757.06.66.13.70.00.02.9LABLAB
94477Wigan Lisa Nandy75,35963.123.855.94.39.33.80.00.02.9LABLAB
99472Wythenshawe and Sale East Mike Kane76,36160.024.955.95.66.73.50.00.03.3LABLAB
107464Bolton South East Yasmin Qureshi68,88661.425.054.44.210.03.50.00.02.9LABLAB
114457Sefton Central Bill Esterson69,01975.528.456.85.03.53.50.00.02.9LABLAB
119452Rochdale Tony Lloyd78,06464.123.751.710.46.82.20.01.83.4LABLAB
127444Makerfield Yvonne Fovargue74,25963.226.653.95.13.52.20.05.72.9LABLAB
130441Ashton under Lyne Angela Rayner67,67458.827.354.14.08.23.60.00.02.9LABLAB
154417Ellesmere Port and Neston Justin Madders68,66674.232.152.94.15.12.90.00.02.9LABLAB
159412Lancashire West Rosie Cooper73,25874.232.752.64.33.53.50.00.03.4LABLAB
162409Leigh Joanne Platt76,21161.531.149.94.49.42.20.00.02.9LABLAB
167404Warrington North Helen Jones72,01567.431.950.14.86.73.50.00.02.9LABLAB
172399Stalybridge and Hyde Jonathan Reynolds71,40959.533.450.94.73.54.60.00.02.9LABLAB
173398Wirral South Alison McGovern57,67078.434.151.05.33.53.20.00.02.9LABLAB
175396Worsley and Eccles South Barbara Keeley73,69261.934.050.84.73.54.10.00.02.9LABLAB
179392Oldham East and Saddleworth Debbie Abrahams72,22365.132.448.25.98.32.20.00.02.9LABLAB
183388Chester, City of Chris Matheson72,85977.435.850.55.13.52.20.00.02.9LABLAB
185386Burnley Julie Cooper64,71462.326.340.517.39.63.40.00.02.9LABLAB
187384Heywood and Middleton Liz McInnes79,90162.433.347.04.510.02.20.00.02.9LABLAB
188383Lancaster and Fleetwood Cat Smith67,17168.535.948.84.93.54.00.00.02.9LABLAB
192379Chorley Lindsay Hoyle76,40472.837.149.04.43.53.20.00.02.9LABLAB
194377Hyndburn Graham Jones73,11061.835.847.14.27.82.20.00.02.9LABLAB
197374Wirral West Margaret Greenwood55,99578.537.448.05.03.53.20.00.02.9LABLAB
199372Bury South Ivan Lewis73,72369.236.947.04.46.12.20.00.03.4LABLAB
211360Workington Sue Hayman60,25669.237.044.95.17.22.20.00.03.6LABLAB
212359Bury North James Frith67,58770.939.847.34.23.52.20.00.02.9LABLAB
216355Bolton North East David Crausby67,23367.237.544.35.26.93.00.00.02.9LABLAB
220351Weaver Vale Mike Amesbury69,01673.339.045.25.53.53.80.00.02.9LABLAB
222349Blackpool South Gordon Marsden58,45059.838.444.04.17.33.20.00.02.9LABLAB
235336Warrington South Faisal Rashid85,75572.339.642.17.73.52.20.00.04.9LABLAB
249322Barrow and Furness John Woodcock69,47468.542.341.25.05.53.00.00.02.9LABCON
252319Crewe and Nantwich Laura Smith78,89569.742.340.84.86.92.20.00.02.9LABCON
268303Bolton West Chris Green72,79770.143.239.85.26.62.20.00.02.9CONCON
274297Pendle Andrew Stephenson64,96369.044.339.94.43.53.30.01.62.9CONCON
276295Morecambe and Lunesdale David Morris66,83868.343.038.36.16.43.30.00.02.9CONCON
283288Copeland Trudy Harrison61,75169.544.438.85.66.02.20.00.02.9CONCON
288283Blackpool North and Cleveleys Paul Maynard63,96764.144.738.24.26.93.20.00.02.9CONCON
294277Carlisle John Stevenson62,29469.145.237.65.26.92.20.00.02.9CONCON
295276Southport Damien Moore69,40069.134.026.328.75.82.20.00.02.9CONCON
297274Rossendale and Darwen Jake Berry72,49569.246.138.15.43.53.90.00.02.9CONCON
320251Altrincham and Sale West Graham Brady73,22072.146.332.610.03.54.10.00.03.5CONCON
325246Ribble South Seema Kennedy75,75272.448.233.06.16.03.10.00.03.6CONCON
330241Macclesfield David Rutley75,22872.248.030.58.53.54.50.00.05.1CONCON
375196Congleton Fiona Bruce76,69473.351.927.97.55.84.00.00.02.9CONCON
379192Wyre and Preston North Ben Wallace72,31972.853.628.77.23.54.10.00.02.9CONCON
380191Eddisbury Antoinette Sandbach70,27273.052.227.37.85.63.80.00.03.3CONCON
385186Ribble Valley Nigel Evans77,96870.853.127.68.23.54.60.00.02.9CONCON
394177Hazel Grove William Wragg62,68470.440.714.235.33.53.40.00.02.9CONCON
396175Cheadle Mary Robinson72,78075.039.913.138.63.42.20.00.02.9CONCON
397174Fylde Mark Menzies70,32466.154.127.17.43.54.90.00.02.9CONCON
436135Tatton Esther McVey67,87472.453.922.211.43.54.30.00.04.8CONCON
450120Westmorland and Lonsdale Tim Farron66,39177.939.66.347.42.41.50.00.02.6LIBLIB
47299Penrith and The Border Rory Stewart65,13971.355.719.910.25.94.40.00.03.8CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.