North West: Majority Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 37.5%32 29.0%023-239
LAB 47.3%42 52.2%230+2365
LIB 7.9%1 5.8%00+01
Reform 3.9%0 2.6%00+00
Green 2.5%0 6.3%00+00
Other 1.1%0 4.1%00+00

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Liverpool Walton, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Penrith and The Border, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Cheadle (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Southport (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2019
Win
Pred
Win
1562Liverpool Walton Dan Carden62,62865.19.077.52.81.16.30.03.2LABLAB
2561Liverpool Riverside Kim Johnson80,31065.77.373.64.11.210.50.03.1LABLAB
3560Knowsley George Howarth84,08265.39.475.43.02.16.30.03.7LABLAB
4559Bootle Peter Dowd74,83265.79.874.63.51.96.60.03.6LABLAB
5558Liverpool West Derby Ian Byrne65,64067.010.074.43.22.06.00.04.3LABLAB
6557Manchester Gorton Afzal Khan76,41958.39.470.74.82.010.10.03.1LABLAB
7556Chorley Lindsay Hoyle78,17751.07.368.53.12.610.60.07.9LABLAB
8555Liverpool Wavertree Paula Barker63,45868.49.970.75.71.77.80.04.2LABLAB
9554Garston and Halewood Maria Eagle76,11670.112.570.44.42.06.60.04.1LABLAB
10553Manchester Central Lucy Powell92,24756.711.868.64.81.99.30.03.5LABLAB
11552Manchester Withington Jeff Smith76,53069.29.366.09.91.210.00.03.6LABLAB
21542Birkenhead Mick Whitley63,76266.413.564.93.92.97.40.07.4LABLAB
36527Halton Derek Twigg71,93064.219.464.03.62.86.10.04.1LABLAB
38525Wallasey Angela Eagle66,31070.120.064.23.52.26.40.03.7LABLAB
44519St Helens South and Whiston Marie Rimmer79,06163.618.761.74.43.27.30.04.7LABLAB
48515Blackley and Broughton Graham Stringer73,37252.619.761.54.03.37.70.03.8LABLAB
51512Salford and Eccles Rebecca Long-Bailey82,20261.619.660.64.62.97.90.04.3LABLAB
55508Preston Mark Hendrick59,67256.621.060.94.52.86.90.03.7LABLAB
64499Stretford and Urmston Kate Green72,37269.221.960.74.42.27.30.03.6LABLAB
70493Blackburn Kate Hollern71,23462.822.459.53.54.36.80.03.5LABLAB
75488Sefton Central Bill Esterson69,76072.923.159.84.72.26.10.04.2LABLAB
78485Stockport Navendu Mishra65,39163.821.857.16.72.37.70.04.5LABLAB
83480Wythenshawe and Sale East Mike Kane76,31358.723.157.64.92.77.50.04.3LABLAB
88475St Helens North Conor McGinn75,59362.923.357.04.43.66.90.04.8LABLAB
106457Oldham West and Royton Jim McMahon72,99960.926.355.33.74.56.20.04.0LABLAB
111452Ellesmere Port and Neston Justin Madders70,32769.327.856.24.02.45.70.03.9LABLAB
112451Denton and Reddish Andrew Gwynne66,23458.326.755.03.93.46.60.04.4LABLAB
118445Lancashire West Rosie Cooper73,34771.828.555.53.92.45.80.03.8LABLAB
121442Rochdale Tony Lloyd78,90960.126.453.15.44.26.60.04.2LABLAB
123440Wigan Lisa Nandy75,68059.527.053.44.34.26.20.04.9LABLAB
128435Bolton South East Yasmin Qureshi69,16358.728.154.13.74.06.40.03.7LABLAB
130433Wirral South Alison McGovern57,28076.028.954.94.62.05.80.03.9LABLAB
131432Chester, City of Chris Matheson76,05771.728.554.44.82.06.40.03.9LABLAB
148415Ashton under Lyne Angela Rayner67,97856.829.252.73.73.76.60.04.1LABLAB
156407Makerfield Yvonne Fovargue74,19059.728.852.04.14.35.80.04.9LABLAB
159404Worsley and Eccles South Barbara Keeley75,21959.429.552.24.33.26.40.04.3LABLAB
160403Lancaster and Fleetwood Cat Smith70,05964.530.152.64.12.57.00.03.7LABLAB
164399Stalybridge and Hyde Jonathan Reynolds73,06458.029.551.44.13.67.00.04.5LABLAB
174389Wirral West Margaret Greenwood55,55077.331.652.64.51.95.70.03.8LABLAB
180383Warrington North Charlotte Nichols72,23564.631.350.84.63.06.00.04.3LABLAB
199364Bury South Christian Wakeford75,15266.932.749.74.12.96.10.04.5CONLAB
201362Weaver Vale Mike Amesbury70,55171.933.349.84.82.25.80.04.0LABLAB
203360Oldham East and Saddleworth Debbie Abrahams72,12064.032.448.64.73.85.70.04.7LABLAB
213350Warrington South Andy Carter86,01572.033.949.15.72.34.70.04.2CONLAB
216347Heywood and Middleton Chris Clarkson80,16259.233.548.54.13.85.90.04.3CONLAB
218345Bury North James Daly68,80268.135.049.83.62.75.50.03.4CONLAB
220343Leigh James Grundy77,41760.734.648.74.03.54.40.04.7CONLAB
224339Bolton North East Mark Logan67,56464.534.948.73.93.25.60.03.6CONLAB
227336Burnley Antony Higginbotham64,34560.632.845.16.54.45.60.05.7CONLAB
235328Southport Damien Moore70,83768.034.645.49.61.94.30.04.1CONLAB
240323Altrincham and Sale West Graham Brady73,10774.935.045.66.71.86.60.04.3CONLAB
248315Hyndburn Sara Britcliffe70,84259.937.146.73.43.75.50.03.7CONLAB
253310Blackpool South Scott Benton57,69056.837.246.03.53.75.20.04.4CONLAB
258305Workington Mark Jenkinson61,37067.838.046.13.73.04.80.04.4CONLAB
264299Barrow and Furness Simon Fell70,15865.638.545.84.02.75.10.03.9CONLAB
273290Morecambe and Lunesdale David Morris67,39767.239.045.44.12.35.40.03.9CONLAB
276287Copeland Trudy Harrison61,69368.939.845.93.72.34.90.03.6CONLAB
279284Crewe and Nantwich Kieran Mullan80,32167.339.145.14.12.75.20.03.9CONLAB
288275Bolton West Chris Green73,19167.440.144.54.32.35.20.03.6CONLAB
292271Carlisle John Stevenson65,10565.940.044.24.52.54.50.04.3CONLAB
293270Rossendale and Darwen Jake Berry72,77067.140.444.33.82.45.50.03.5CONLAB
295268Macclesfield David Rutley76,21670.738.542.26.11.97.00.04.3CONLAB
299264Ribble South Katherine Fletcher75,35171.440.543.64.52.35.20.03.9CONLAB
301262Pendle Andrew Stephenson65,28968.140.943.83.63.15.30.03.3CONLAB
310253Blackpool North and Cleveleys Paul Maynard63,69260.942.042.93.62.75.00.03.9CONLAB
335228Cheadle Mary Robinson74,57775.033.828.827.71.84.30.03.7CONCON
336227Eddisbury Edward Timpson73,70071.941.836.89.32.25.40.04.5CONCON
340223Congleton Fiona Bruce80,93070.743.437.86.32.35.60.04.6CONCON
343220Hazel Grove William Wragg63,34669.935.429.724.71.94.30.04.0CONCON
349214Tatton Esther McVey69,01870.942.235.98.92.06.70.04.3CONCON
353210Wyre and Preston North Ben Wallace74,77570.844.837.85.32.45.70.04.1CONCON
354209Ribble Valley Nigel Evans79,24769.844.837.75.32.45.50.04.3CONCON
377186Fylde Mark Menzies66,84769.845.436.65.12.55.90.04.5CONCON
399163Westmorland and Lonsdale Tim Farron67,78977.833.322.634.61.93.70.03.9LIBLIB
401162Penrith and The Border Neil Hudson67,55570.845.434.56.52.56.20.05.0CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.