North West: Majority Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party	2017 Votes	2017 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	36.2%	20	28.4%	3	3	+0	20
LAB	54.9%	54	37.0%	0	3	-3	51
LIB	5.4%	1	14.5%	3	0	+3	4
Brexit	0.0%	0	14.6%	0	0	+0	0
Green	1.1%	0	3.3%	0	0	+0	0
UKIP	1.9%	0	0.9%	0	0	+0	0
Other	0.5%	0	1.2%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Manchester Gorton, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Penrith and The Border, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Congleton (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Pendle (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2017	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Brexit %	Green %	UKIP %	MIN %	OTH %	2017 Win	Pred Win
1	546	Manchester Gorton	Mohammed Khan	75,362	61.0	11.6	60.1	13.1	7.4	6.0	0.9	0.0	0.9	LAB	LAB
6	541	Liverpool Walton	Dan Carden	62,738	67.3	13.4	57.4	11.1	11.8	3.9	0.9	0.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
8	539	Liverpool West Derby	Stephen Twigg	65,164	69.3	14.3	56.7	11.3	11.6	3.6	1.0	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
9	538	Liverpool Riverside	Louise Ellman	76,332	62.9	12.8	54.4	15.1	6.5	9.2	0.9	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
10	537	Knowsley	George Howarth	81,751	67.9	14.2	55.2	11.6	13.0	3.6	1.1	0.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
14	533	Bootle	Peter Dowd	72,872	69.0	15.4	54.1	11.8	12.1	4.0	1.0	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
15	532	Liverpool Wavertree	Luciana Berger	62,411	69.9	14.6	52.3	17.3	8.9	4.7	0.9	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
16	531	Manchester Central	Lucy Powell	90,261	55.1	15.2	52.6	13.9	9.9	6.4	1.0	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
21	526	Manchester Withington	Jeff Smith	74,553	71.9	12.2	47.7	27.2	5.1	6.0	0.8	0.0	1.0	LAB	LAB
24	523	Blackburn	Kate Hollern	70,657	67.2	22.7	55.3	7.7	11.0	1.9	0.7	0.0	0.8	LAB	LAB
25	522	Garston and Halewood	Maria Eagle	75,248	71.1	18.4	50.5	14.0	11.1	3.9	0.8	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
29	518	Birkenhead	Frank Field	64,484	67.7	18.4	50.0	12.6	12.3	4.4	0.9	0.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
31	516	Blackley and Broughton	Graham Stringer	71,648	56.0	20.0	50.8	9.6	13.7	3.7	1.0	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
42	505	Preston	Mark Hendrick	57,791	61.6	21.1	47.6	11.1	14.5	3.7	1.0	0.0	1.0	LAB	LAB
44	503	Halton	Derek Twigg	73,457	67.4	21.0	46.5	10.9	15.9	3.0	1.1	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
45	502	Wallasey	Angela Eagle	67,454	71.7	21.4	46.7	11.5	14.2	3.7	1.0	0.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
49	498	Oldham West and Royton	Jim McMahon	72,418	63.2	23.7	47.9	8.7	15.4	2.5	0.9	0.0	0.9	LAB	LAB
55	492	Stretford and Urmston	Kate Green	71,840	69.9	23.5	46.2	11.9	12.5	3.9	0.9	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
58	489	St Helens South and Whiston	Marie Rimmer	79,036	66.9	21.4	43.1	13.2	15.6	4.2	1.1	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
60	487	Salford and Eccles	Rebecca Long-Bailey	78,082	61.0	22.2	43.1	12.7	15.1	4.5	1.1	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
62	485	Rochdale	Tony Lloyd	78,064	64.1	23.8	44.6	13.9	13.6	2.3	0.9	0.0	0.9	LAB	LAB
72	475	Bolton South East	Yasmin Qureshi	68,886	61.4	25.0	44.0	8.7	17.3	3.0	1.1	0.0	0.9	LAB	LAB
77	470	Stockport	Ann Coffey	63,425	65.5	23.6	41.9	14.7	13.4	4.2	0.9	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
93	454	Wythenshawe and Sale East	Mike Kane	76,361	60.0	24.4	41.3	13.5	14.8	3.7	1.0	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
96	451	Denton and Reddish	Andrew Gwynne	65,751	60.2	24.3	40.7	11.1	17.9	3.5	1.2	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
98	449	St Helens North	Conor McGinn	76,088	66.0	24.4	40.4	12.0	16.9	3.9	1.1	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
109	438	Wigan	Lisa Nandy	75,359	63.1	25.3	39.7	10.8	18.5	3.3	1.2	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
114	433	Ashton under Lyne	Angela Rayner	67,674	58.8	26.4	40.1	9.8	18.2	3.3	1.1	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
122	425	Sefton Central	Bill Esterson	69,019	75.5	27.8	40.3	15.1	11.7	3.2	0.8	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
127	420	Makerfield	Yvonne Fovargue	74,259	63.2	27.6	39.5	11.2	17.2	2.5	0.8	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
146	401	Oldham East and Saddleworth	Debbie Abrahams	72,223	65.1	28.8	38.3	12.5	16.3	2.2	1.0	0.0	0.9	LAB	LAB
147	400	Ellesmere Port and Neston	Justin Madders	68,666	74.2	29.3	38.7	11.9	15.1	2.9	0.9	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
148	399	Stalybridge and Hyde	Jonathan Reynolds	71,409	59.5	28.8	37.6	11.7	15.7	4.2	0.9	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
154	393	Lancashire West	Rosie Cooper	73,258	74.2	29.9	38.1	12.2	14.2	3.4	0.8	0.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
157	390	Worsley and Eccles South	Barbara Keeley	73,692	61.9	29.5	37.3	11.7	15.8	3.6	0.9	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
164	383	Leigh	Joanne Platt	76,211	61.5	28.8	36.1	10.8	19.6	2.3	1.1	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
166	381	Chester, City of	Chris Matheson	72,859	77.4	30.8	37.9	14.5	12.1	2.8	0.7	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
167	380	Warrington North	Helen Jones	72,015	67.4	29.2	36.2	12.0	17.1	3.2	1.0	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
169	378	Wirral South	Alison McGovern	57,670	78.4	30.7	37.7	14.5	12.1	3.0	0.7	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
172	375	Hyndburn	Graham Jones	73,110	61.8	30.9	37.4	9.3	18.1	2.4	1.0	0.0	1.0	LAB	LAB
177	370	Burnley	Julie Cooper	64,714	62.3	25.9	31.8	18.7	18.8	2.6	1.1	0.0	1.0	LAB	LAB
178	369	Lancaster and Fleetwood	Cat Smith	67,171	68.5	30.2	35.9	13.7	13.6	4.7	0.8	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
180	367	Heywood and Middleton	Liz McInnes	79,901	62.4	29.8	35.2	10.9	19.4	2.4	1.1	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
182	365	Bolton North East	David Crausby	67,233	67.2	31.8	36.6	11.0	16.1	2.6	0.9	0.0	1.0	LAB	LAB
185	362	Bury South	Ivan Lewis	73,723	69.2	31.7	36.2	11.9	15.1	2.9	0.9	0.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
186	361	Bury North	James Frith	67,587	70.9	33.2	37.3	11.6	13.8	2.4	0.7	0.0	1.0	LAB	LAB
188	359	Chorley	Lindsay Hoyle	76,404	72.8	32.3	35.9	11.8	15.1	2.9	0.8	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
189	358	Wirral West	Margaret Greenwood	55,995	78.5	32.6	35.9	14.7	12.0	2.7	0.7	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
203	344	Blackpool South	Gordon Marsden	58,450	59.8	31.6	33.2	9.8	20.2	2.9	1.1	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
204	343	Workington	Sue Hayman	60,256	69.2	32.1	33.5	11.5	18.1	2.4	1.1	0.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
208	339	Weaver Vale	Mike Amesbury	69,016	73.3	32.8	34.0	14.1	13.8	3.4	0.8	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
220	327	Pendle	Andrew Stephenson	64,963	69.0	35.4	35.0	9.6	15.9	2.5	0.7	0.0	0.9	CON	CON
228	319	Warrington South	Faisal Rashid	85,755	72.3	33.1	31.7	16.3	13.5	2.6	0.9	0.0	1.8	LAB	CON
235	312	Barrow and Furness	John Woodcock	69,474	68.5	34.5	31.9	11.9	16.8	2.9	0.9	0.0	1.2	LAB	CON
239	308	Crewe and Nantwich	Laura Smith	78,895	69.7	34.5	31.6	11.9	17.7	2.2	1.0	0.0	1.2	LAB	CON
250	297	Bolton West	Chris Green	72,797	70.1	35.5	31.1	12.8	16.5	2.2	0.9	0.0	1.1	CON	CON
257	290	Morecambe and Lunesdale	David Morris	66,838	68.3	34.9	30.1	12.8	17.1	3.0	0.9	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
263	284	Carlisle	John Stevenson	62,294	69.1	35.4	29.7	11.6	18.6	2.5	1.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
264	283	Blackpool North and Cleveleys	Paul Maynard	63,967	64.1	35.6	29.6	10.4	19.5	2.6	1.0	0.0	1.3	CON	CON
265	282	Rossendale and Darwen	Jake Berry	72,495	69.2	36.3	30.1	12.2	16.3	3.1	0.8	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
266	281	Copeland	Trudy Harrison	61,751	69.5	36.2	30.0	11.9	17.4	2.4	0.9	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
280	266	Southport	Damien Moore	69,400	69.1	29.1	20.7	31.7	14.5	2.1	0.8	0.0	1.1	CON	LIB
291	256	Altrincham and Sale West	Graham Brady	73,220	72.1	36.5	26.8	20.1	11.2	3.4	0.7	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
307	240	Ribble South	Seema Kennedy	75,752	72.4	38.8	26.3	13.0	17.2	2.4	0.9	0.0	1.4	CON	CON
309	238	Macclesfield	David Rutley	75,228	72.2	37.6	24.7	17.4	13.7	3.8	0.9	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
336	211	Congleton	Fiona Bruce	76,694	73.3	39.9	22.7	16.8	15.7	3.0	0.8	0.0	1.1	CON	CON
340	207	Eddisbury	Antoinette Sandbach	70,272	73.0	40.4	22.9	16.1	15.6	2.8	0.9	0.0	1.3	CON	CON
341	205	Hazel Grove	William Wragg	62,684	70.4	32.0	14.3	36.1	13.6	2.3	0.6	0.0	1.0	CON	LIB
342	204	Cheadle	Mary Robinson	72,780	75.0	31.7	13.6	40.9	10.7	1.6	0.5	0.0	0.9	CON	LIB
350	197	Wyre and Preston North	Ben Wallace	72,319	72.8	42.0	23.6	14.8	15.0	2.9	0.7	0.0	1.1	CON	CON
354	193	Ribble Valley	Nigel Evans	77,968	70.8	41.3	22.6	14.9	16.1	3.2	0.7	0.0	1.1	CON	CON
360	187	Fylde	Mark Menzies	65,937	70.5	41.7	22.3	14.9	15.6	3.4	0.7	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
377	170	Tatton	Esther McVey	67,874	72.4	41.1	20.0	19.9	13.2	3.2	0.8	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
380	166	Westmorland and Lonsdale	Tim Farron	66,391	77.9	29.4	8.0	47.9	11.9	1.5	0.4	0.0	1.0	LIB	LIB
398	149	Penrith and The Border	Rory Stewart	65,139	71.3	41.8	18.6	17.0	17.2	3.2	0.9	0.0	1.4	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.