| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 18.8% | 3 | 14.4% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| LAB | 44.8% | 66 | 24.3% | 0 | 47 | -47 | 19 |
| LIB | 7.8% | 3 | 8.7% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 3 |
| Reform | 16.6% | 0 | 32.2% | 45 | 0 | +45 | 45 |
| Green | 7.0% | 0 | 15.1% | 4 | 0 | +4 | 4 |
| Other | 4.9% | 1 | 5.3% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Manchester Withington' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Blackpool South', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Bolton South and Walkden (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Stretford and Urmston (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 382 | Manchester Withington | Jeff Smith | 70,549 | 59.2 | 5.1 | 29.3 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 38.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | LAB | Green |
| 2 | 382 | Liverpool Garston | Maria Eagle | 69,282 | 60.6 | 3.2 | 50.3 | 2.3 | 31.9 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 4.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 7 | 377 | Liverpool West Derby | Ian Byrne | 69,934 | 54.3 | 2.2 | 48.9 | 1.2 | 36.0 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 2.8 | LAB | LAB |
| 8 | 376 | Chorley | Lindsay Hoyle | 74,575 | 45.5 | 3.8 | 42.0 | 2.9 | 29.4 | 14.6 | 3.3 | 4.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 9 | 375 | Bootle | Peter Dowd | 73,037 | 53.2 | 2.4 | 49.4 | 1.4 | 36.7 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | LAB | LAB |
| 12 | 372 | Chester North and Neston | Samantha Dixon | 70,215 | 63.7 | 6.9 | 46.4 | 2.2 | 34.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 0.8 | LAB | LAB |
| 13 | 371 | Liverpool Walton | Dan Carden | 69,317 | 53.2 | 2.0 | 48.9 | 1.1 | 37.9 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 14 | 370 | Liverpool Wavertree | Paula Barker | 70,581 | 56.4 | 6.2 | 30.0 | 8.1 | 19.2 | 29.3 | 3.9 | 3.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 15 | 369 | Sefton Central | Bill Esterson | 74,282 | 63.9 | 5.1 | 47.7 | 1.8 | 37.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 25 | 358 | Manchester Rusholme | Afzal Khan | 72,604 | 40.0 | 5.3 | 22.2 | 4.0 | 14.9 | 42.5 | 5.9 | 5.2 | LAB | Green |
| 26 | 358 | Wallasey | Angela Eagle | 74,082 | 57.7 | 3.4 | 46.1 | 1.6 | 39.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 29 | 355 | Warrington South | Sarah Edith Hall | 78,399 | 63.4 | 6.1 | 45.5 | 2.2 | 38.6 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 33 | 351 | Knowsley | Anneliese Midgley | 72,087 | 50.0 | 2.3 | 46.2 | 1.3 | 40.2 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 42 | 341 | Liverpool Riverside | Kim Johnson | 71,380 | 45.4 | 4.7 | 28.0 | 4.9 | 23.2 | 32.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | LAB | Green |
| 43 | 341 | Macclesfield | Tim Roca | 76,416 | 69.1 | 24.1 | 27.6 | 9.5 | 22.9 | 13.2 | 1.5 | 1.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 45 | 339 | Altrincham and Sale West | Connor Rand | 74,025 | 69.5 | 23.0 | 25.4 | 12.9 | 20.9 | 13.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | LAB | LAB |
| 50 | 334 | Wirral West | Matthew Patrick | 72,838 | 68.6 | 19.5 | 27.4 | 13.2 | 23.4 | 12.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | LAB | LAB |
| 52 | 332 | Stretford and Urmston | Andrew Western | 75,153 | 61.2 | 8.6 | 32.8 | 4.6 | 28.8 | 17.1 | 5.0 | 3.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 59 | 325 | Lancashire West | Ashley Dalton | 74,083 | 59.7 | 5.4 | 44.1 | 1.8 | 41.0 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | LAB | LAB |
| 65 | 319 | Ellesmere Port and Bromborough | Justin Madders | 70,799 | 59.3 | 3.8 | 43.9 | 1.7 | 41.6 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 65 | 318 | Tatton | Esther McVey | 75,978 | 68.3 | 31.1 | 24.6 | 10.3 | 22.9 | 9.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | CON | CON |
| 72 | 312 | Widnes and Halewood | Derek Twigg | 71,233 | 53.5 | 2.9 | 44.0 | 1.2 | 43.2 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 74 | 310 | Bury South | Christian Wakeford | 75,339 | 56.0 | 5.8 | 41.6 | 1.7 | 41.2 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 78 | 306 | Runcorn and Helsby | Mike Amesbury | 71,955 | 58.7 | 4.6 | 42.4 | 1.7 | 42.7 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 84 | 299 | Cheadle | Tom Morrison | 74,383 | 68.2 | 17.3 | 16.5 | 34.6 | 17.5 | 9.9 | 2.5 | 1.9 | LIB | LIB |
| 85 | 298 | Chester South and Eddisbury | Aphra Brandreth | 74,284 | 70.7 | 28.5 | 22.5 | 13.9 | 23.8 | 8.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 | CON | CON |
| 88 | 295 | Manchester Central | Lucy Powell | 85,049 | 46.7 | 7.2 | 23.3 | 6.3 | 25.4 | 31.0 | 3.9 | 3.0 | LAB | Green |
| 97 | 287 | Cheshire Mid | Andrew Graham Cooper | 70,384 | 59.0 | 8.3 | 37.7 | 3.1 | 41.3 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 103 | 280 | Hazel Grove | Lisa Smart | 72,843 | 63.1 | 14.1 | 20.7 | 26.1 | 24.7 | 10.4 | 2.4 | 1.6 | LIB | LIB |
| 104 | 280 | Morecambe and Lunesdale | Lizzi Collinge | 76,424 | 62.9 | 22.3 | 24.8 | 11.4 | 29.0 | 10.1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 106 | 278 | Southport | Patrick Brian Hurley | 73,641 | 61.2 | 13.8 | 30.2 | 10.0 | 34.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 107 | 277 | Bury North | James Frith | 77,703 | 58.6 | 21.0 | 25.1 | 7.5 | 29.5 | 12.2 | 2.3 | 2.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 110 | 274 | Salford | Rebecca Long-Bailey | 83,633 | 47.5 | 7.5 | 24.7 | 5.8 | 29.3 | 27.4 | 3.4 | 1.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 113 | 271 | Stockport | Navendu Mishra | 76,625 | 57.0 | 10.7 | 24.5 | 8.0 | 29.4 | 22.2 | 2.9 | 2.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 125 | 259 | Penrith and Solway | Markus Campbell-Savours | 77,935 | 63.2 | 22.5 | 24.4 | 10.5 | 30.0 | 10.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 126 | 258 | Crewe and Nantwich | Connor Naismith | 78,423 | 60.2 | 7.5 | 37.5 | 2.7 | 43.5 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 130 | 254 | Whitehaven and Workington | Josh MacAlister | 73,198 | 57.2 | 5.0 | 40.5 | 1.3 | 47.0 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 133 | 251 | South Ribble | Paul Andrew Foster | 73,420 | 63.6 | 21.0 | 25.1 | 9.7 | 31.8 | 9.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 135 | 249 | Lancaster and Wyre | Cat Smith | 74,760 | 57.5 | 18.2 | 21.4 | 8.6 | 28.1 | 18.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 137 | 247 | Wythenshawe and Sale East | Mike Kane | 77,765 | 50.3 | 10.8 | 25.2 | 5.8 | 32.2 | 20.9 | 3.2 | 1.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 142 | 242 | Birkenhead | Alison McGovern | 78,091 | 55.2 | 8.7 | 23.2 | 7.0 | 30.5 | 24.9 | 3.7 | 2.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 148 | 236 | Gorton and Denton | Andrew Gwynne | 78,125 | 46.8 | 8.3 | 23.1 | 5.2 | 30.8 | 24.3 | 5.4 | 3.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 150 | 234 | Congleton | Sarah Alison Russell | 74,243 | 67.5 | 21.8 | 22.7 | 10.5 | 30.5 | 9.7 | 2.3 | 2.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 151 | 233 | St Helens South and Whiston | Marie Rimmer | 71,569 | 53.1 | 5.5 | 33.5 | 3.5 | 41.3 | 8.7 | 2.9 | 4.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 152 | 232 | Bolton West | Phil Brickell | 74,933 | 59.5 | 22.8 | 22.8 | 8.0 | 30.7 | 13.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 185 | 199 | Warrington North | Charlotte Nichols | 70,601 | 56.7 | 4.3 | 37.8 | 1.5 | 48.8 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 1.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 188 | 196 | St Helens North | David Baines | 75,483 | 53.6 | 6.0 | 33.9 | 2.8 | 45.1 | 8.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 189 | 195 | Worsley and Eccles | Michael Wheeler | 78,643 | 54.1 | 8.3 | 30.7 | 3.9 | 42.1 | 10.7 | 2.7 | 1.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 191 | 193 | Ribble Valley | Maya Ellis | 80,484 | 64.6 | 22.1 | 21.2 | 11.9 | 32.6 | 8.1 | 2.2 | 1.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 194 | 190 | Rossendale and Darwen | Andy MacNae | 74,440 | 59.9 | 20.5 | 23.2 | 6.4 | 34.8 | 12.2 | 1.8 | 1.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 198 | 186 | Carlisle | Julie Minns | 77,863 | 59.1 | 20.9 | 22.9 | 8.2 | 34.7 | 10.4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 203 | 181 | Bolton North East | Kirith Entwistle | 80,011 | 54.2 | 13.3 | 24.3 | 7.2 | 36.6 | 11.9 | 4.4 | 2.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 211 | 173 | Preston | Mark Hendrick | 77,400 | 51.7 | 10.0 | 20.8 | 6.8 | 33.6 | 14.5 | 9.9 | 4.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 215 | 169 | Barrow and Furness | Michelle Scrogham | 74,980 | 56.3 | 16.9 | 25.7 | 6.0 | 39.2 | 8.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 224 | 160 | Wigan | Lisa Nandy | 77,537 | 52.7 | 3.4 | 35.9 | 1.3 | 49.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 3.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 237 | 147 | Blackley and Middleton South | Graham Stringer | 72,097 | 43.5 | 8.1 | 23.9 | 5.0 | 38.7 | 19.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 239 | 145 | Rochdale | Paul Waugh | 71,264 | 55.7 | 9.5 | 18.9 | 7.1 | 33.7 | 13.8 | 13.4 | 3.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 243 | 141 | Burnley | Oliver Ryan | 74,951 | 53.0 | 15.1 | 18.9 | 15.6 | 34.1 | 11.7 | 2.9 | 1.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 247 | 137 | Blackburn | Adnan Hussain | 73,259 | 53.1 | 9.8 | 15.9 | 5.2 | 31.5 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 18.9 | MIN | Reform |
| 248 | 136 | Pendle and Clitheroe | Jonathan James Hinder | 78,796 | 59.3 | 22.3 | 20.0 | 8.1 | 35.7 | 7.8 | 2.3 | 3.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 249 | 134 | Westmorland and Lonsdale | Tim Farron | 72,029 | 68.8 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 44.1 | 23.9 | 7.7 | 1.3 | 1.7 | LIB | LIB |
| 250 | 134 | Blackpool North and Fleetwood | Lorraine Beavers | 73,339 | 57.0 | 20.6 | 22.4 | 6.5 | 38.2 | 9.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 271 | 113 | Hyndburn | Sarah Smith | 76,126 | 47.8 | 19.2 | 19.0 | 6.5 | 36.5 | 15.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 276 | 108 | Oldham East and Saddleworth | Debbie Abrahams | 72,760 | 55.1 | 14.4 | 19.0 | 9.1 | 36.9 | 11.2 | 5.5 | 3.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 280 | 104 | Stalybridge and Hyde | Jonathan Reynolds | 72,265 | 51.5 | 12.3 | 22.5 | 5.1 | 40.6 | 14.2 | 2.7 | 2.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 289 | 95 | Fylde | Andrew Snowden | 77,100 | 62.2 | 27.6 | 16.3 | 8.7 | 35.0 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 3.6 | CON | Reform |
| 294 | 90 | Leigh and Atherton | Jo Platt | 79,761 | 51.6 | 4.2 | 34.5 | 1.1 | 53.5 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 1.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 306 | 78 | Heywood and Middleton North | Elsie Jane Blundell | 74,786 | 49.6 | 8.2 | 27.0 | 4.1 | 47.3 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 3.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 311 | 73 | Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton | Jim McMahon | 73,178 | 52.7 | 10.3 | 17.4 | 4.8 | 37.9 | 13.6 | 16.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 312 | 72 | Ashton-under-Lyne | Angela Rayner | 71,002 | 49.9 | 8.5 | 23.8 | 3.9 | 44.4 | 13.2 | 3.9 | 2.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 319 | 65 | Makerfield | Josh Simons | 76,845 | 52.4 | 3.3 | 33.9 | 1.3 | 55.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 328 | 56 | Bolton South and Walkden | Yasmin Qureshi | 79,622 | 46.4 | 9.8 | 19.4 | 4.6 | 41.7 | 16.2 | 5.3 | 3.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 344 | 40 | Blackpool South | Chris Webb | 77,459 | 45.4 | 6.0 | 29.1 | 2.4 | 53.3 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | LAB | Reform |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.