| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 18.8% | 3 | 12.9% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| LAB | 44.8% | 66 | 25.5% | 0 | 39 | -39 | 27 |
| LIB | 7.8% | 3 | 11.6% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 3 |
| Reform | 16.6% | 0 | 32.4% | 40 | 0 | +40 | 40 |
| Green | 7.0% | 0 | 10.4% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Other | 4.9% | 1 | 7.1% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Chorley' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Hazel Grove', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Rossendale and Darwen (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Blackley and Middleton South (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 443 | Chorley | Lindsay Hoyle | 74,575 | 45.5 | 2.1 | 54.0 | 2.5 | 28.7 | 4.2 | 8.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 13 | 442 | Manchester Withington | Jeff Smith | 70,549 | 59.2 | 5.6 | 34.2 | 13.1 | 10.1 | 24.2 | 12.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 15 | 440 | Liverpool Garston | Maria Eagle | 69,282 | 60.6 | 3.3 | 51.9 | 3.5 | 28.6 | 4.1 | 8.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 30 | 425 | Manchester Rusholme | Afzal Khan | 72,604 | 40.0 | 6.2 | 30.7 | 9.0 | 11.5 | 27.9 | 14.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 35 | 420 | Liverpool West Derby | Ian Byrne | 69,934 | 54.3 | 2.3 | 50.3 | 2.5 | 32.4 | 3.5 | 9.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 37 | 418 | Bootle | Peter Dowd | 73,037 | 53.2 | 2.1 | 50.0 | 2.3 | 32.8 | 3.8 | 9.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 45 | 410 | Stretford and Urmston | Andrew Western | 75,153 | 61.2 | 4.0 | 48.5 | 2.7 | 32.0 | 4.1 | 8.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 48 | 407 | Liverpool Wavertree | Paula Barker | 70,581 | 56.4 | 6.1 | 33.4 | 10.6 | 18.0 | 21.5 | 10.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 50 | 405 | Liverpool Walton | Dan Carden | 69,317 | 53.2 | 2.0 | 49.3 | 2.2 | 34.4 | 3.2 | 8.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 55 | 400 | Sefton Central | Bill Esterson | 74,282 | 63.9 | 4.8 | 48.8 | 2.6 | 34.9 | 2.9 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 57 | 398 | Salford | Rebecca Long-Bailey | 83,633 | 47.5 | 2.5 | 46.3 | 2.4 | 32.7 | 5.2 | 10.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 62 | 393 | Stockport | Navendu Mishra | 76,625 | 57.0 | 3.5 | 46.2 | 2.9 | 33.1 | 4.7 | 9.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 68 | 387 | Chester North and Neston | Samantha Dixon | 70,215 | 63.7 | 5.0 | 47.3 | 2.7 | 35.6 | 3.1 | 6.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 69 | 386 | Liverpool Riverside | Kim Johnson | 71,380 | 45.4 | 5.0 | 32.4 | 8.9 | 20.8 | 19.8 | 13.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 82 | 373 | Knowsley | Anneliese Midgley | 72,087 | 50.0 | 2.2 | 46.6 | 2.2 | 37.1 | 3.5 | 8.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 88 | 367 | Wallasey | Angela Eagle | 74,082 | 57.7 | 3.6 | 45.3 | 2.3 | 37.2 | 3.8 | 7.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 99 | 356 | Wythenshawe and Sale East | Mike Kane | 77,765 | 50.3 | 3.5 | 43.7 | 2.3 | 37.5 | 4.1 | 9.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 103 | 352 | Manchester Central | Lucy Powell | 85,049 | 46.7 | 6.6 | 27.9 | 9.7 | 21.9 | 21.7 | 12.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 104 | 351 | Wirral West | Matthew Patrick | 72,838 | 68.6 | 8.5 | 42.2 | 4.9 | 36.2 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 106 | 349 | Warrington South | Sarah Edith Hall | 78,399 | 63.4 | 5.0 | 45.4 | 3.3 | 39.6 | 2.0 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 112 | 343 | Gorton and Denton | Andrew Gwynne | 78,125 | 46.8 | 8.1 | 28.6 | 9.6 | 23.5 | 19.0 | 11.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 119 | 336 | Widnes and Halewood | Derek Twigg | 71,233 | 53.5 | 3.0 | 44.7 | 2.3 | 40.1 | 2.7 | 7.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 124 | 331 | Ellesmere Port and Bromborough | Justin Madders | 70,799 | 59.3 | 3.6 | 43.7 | 2.4 | 40.1 | 3.2 | 7.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 125 | 330 | Blackley and Middleton South | Graham Stringer | 72,097 | 43.5 | 2.8 | 43.1 | 2.1 | 39.8 | 4.0 | 8.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 131 | 324 | Lancashire West | Ashley Dalton | 74,083 | 59.7 | 4.5 | 44.0 | 2.7 | 41.0 | 2.5 | 5.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 132 | 323 | Preston | Mark Hendrick | 77,400 | 51.7 | 4.0 | 40.5 | 3.2 | 38.0 | 3.4 | 10.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 133 | 322 | Bury South | Christian Wakeford | 75,339 | 56.0 | 4.8 | 42.7 | 2.7 | 40.3 | 2.8 | 6.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 145 | 310 | Altrincham and Sale West | Connor Rand | 74,025 | 69.5 | 20.5 | 24.7 | 13.9 | 24.9 | 10.3 | 5.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 146 | 309 | Runcorn and Helsby | Mike Amesbury | 71,955 | 58.7 | 4.5 | 41.7 | 2.4 | 42.0 | 3.0 | 6.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 151 | 304 | Lancaster and Wyre | Cat Smith | 74,760 | 57.5 | 4.9 | 41.1 | 2.4 | 41.9 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 152 | 303 | St Helens South and Whiston | Marie Rimmer | 71,569 | 53.1 | 3.0 | 41.3 | 2.8 | 42.2 | 3.4 | 7.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 156 | 299 | Macclesfield | Tim Roca | 76,416 | 69.1 | 18.1 | 28.7 | 9.6 | 30.2 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 160 | 295 | Bolton South and Walkden | Yasmin Qureshi | 79,622 | 46.4 | 3.6 | 39.4 | 2.5 | 42.1 | 3.8 | 8.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 164 | 290 | Tatton | Esther McVey | 75,978 | 68.3 | 26.2 | 22.4 | 14.3 | 25.8 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 165 | 290 | Southport | Patrick Brian Hurley | 73,641 | 61.2 | 7.2 | 38.0 | 6.6 | 41.3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 168 | 287 | Cheshire Mid | Andrew Graham Cooper | 70,384 | 59.0 | 5.0 | 40.6 | 3.0 | 44.3 | 2.1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 171 | 283 | Cheadle | Tom Morrison | 74,383 | 68.2 | 13.7 | 17.4 | 35.8 | 22.0 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 172 | 283 | St Helens North | David Baines | 75,483 | 53.6 | 3.4 | 39.8 | 2.2 | 44.4 | 3.4 | 6.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 176 | 279 | Birkenhead | Alison McGovern | 78,091 | 55.2 | 7.0 | 24.6 | 8.6 | 29.5 | 21.6 | 8.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 181 | 274 | Whitehaven and Workington | Josh MacAlister | 73,198 | 57.2 | 4.1 | 41.1 | 2.4 | 46.4 | 1.5 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 182 | 273 | Worsley and Eccles | Michael Wheeler | 78,643 | 54.1 | 4.2 | 39.1 | 2.2 | 44.4 | 3.3 | 6.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 192 | 263 | Rochdale | Paul Waugh | 71,264 | 55.7 | 7.8 | 27.2 | 8.2 | 34.0 | 7.9 | 15.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 194 | 261 | Crewe and Nantwich | Connor Naismith | 78,423 | 60.2 | 5.1 | 39.2 | 2.8 | 46.1 | 2.0 | 4.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 197 | 258 | Oldham East and Saddleworth | Debbie Abrahams | 72,760 | 55.1 | 8.8 | 32.4 | 7.0 | 39.4 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 198 | 257 | Ashton-under-Lyne | Angela Rayner | 71,002 | 49.9 | 3.5 | 38.2 | 2.3 | 45.2 | 3.3 | 7.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 212 | 243 | Warrington North | Charlotte Nichols | 70,601 | 56.7 | 4.1 | 38.3 | 2.4 | 46.6 | 2.4 | 6.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 214 | 240 | Blackburn | Adnan Hussain | 73,259 | 53.1 | 9.0 | 14.4 | 4.1 | 22.8 | 13.0 | 36.7 | 0.0 | MIN | MIN |
| 216 | 239 | Wigan | Lisa Nandy | 77,537 | 52.7 | 3.3 | 38.3 | 2.4 | 47.0 | 2.4 | 6.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 220 | 235 | Stalybridge and Hyde | Jonathan Reynolds | 72,265 | 51.5 | 5.0 | 36.7 | 2.2 | 45.8 | 3.5 | 6.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 232 | 223 | Bury North | James Frith | 77,703 | 58.6 | 18.4 | 24.3 | 9.9 | 34.1 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 239 | 216 | Bolton North East | Kirith Entwistle | 80,011 | 54.2 | 7.6 | 33.1 | 4.7 | 43.6 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 246 | 209 | Morecambe and Lunesdale | Lizzi Collinge | 76,424 | 62.9 | 18.2 | 22.7 | 13.7 | 33.8 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 251 | 204 | Bolton West | Phil Brickell | 74,933 | 59.5 | 19.2 | 21.5 | 9.5 | 33.0 | 11.0 | 5.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 264 | 191 | Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton | Jim McMahon | 73,178 | 52.7 | 8.9 | 18.2 | 5.0 | 30.9 | 11.7 | 25.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 268 | 187 | Penrith and Solway | Markus Campbell-Savours | 77,935 | 63.2 | 18.6 | 22.3 | 12.6 | 35.5 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 271 | 184 | Leigh and Atherton | Jo Platt | 79,761 | 51.6 | 3.9 | 36.1 | 2.0 | 49.7 | 2.3 | 6.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 272 | 183 | Congleton | Sarah Alison Russell | 74,243 | 67.5 | 19.9 | 21.2 | 12.6 | 34.9 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 279 | 175 | Chester South and Eddisbury | Aphra Brandreth | 74,284 | 70.7 | 32.0 | 16.1 | 12.9 | 30.2 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 292 | 163 | Heywood and Middleton North | Elsie Jane Blundell | 74,786 | 49.6 | 4.7 | 34.7 | 2.6 | 50.0 | 1.9 | 6.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 293 | 162 | Ribble Valley | Maya Ellis | 80,484 | 64.6 | 21.1 | 19.9 | 13.7 | 35.3 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 302 | 153 | Burnley | Oliver Ryan | 74,951 | 53.0 | 11.6 | 20.7 | 17.6 | 36.7 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 306 | 149 | South Ribble | Paul Andrew Foster | 73,420 | 63.6 | 18.1 | 22.2 | 11.0 | 38.4 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 309 | 146 | Makerfield | Josh Simons | 76,845 | 52.4 | 3.1 | 35.3 | 2.3 | 51.7 | 2.2 | 5.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 313 | 142 | Pendle and Clitheroe | Jonathan James Hinder | 78,796 | 59.3 | 21.4 | 19.5 | 11.1 | 36.1 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 323 | 132 | Barrow and Furness | Michelle Scrogham | 74,980 | 56.3 | 17.1 | 22.4 | 10.0 | 40.0 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 340 | 115 | Rossendale and Darwen | Andy MacNae | 74,440 | 59.9 | 17.0 | 21.2 | 8.7 | 40.5 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 345 | 110 | Fylde | Andrew Snowden | 77,100 | 62.2 | 22.5 | 17.6 | 11.5 | 37.2 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 346 | 109 | Carlisle | Julie Minns | 77,863 | 59.1 | 16.9 | 20.7 | 10.6 | 40.2 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 349 | 106 | Blackpool South | Chris Webb | 77,459 | 45.4 | 4.1 | 33.0 | 1.9 | 52.9 | 2.3 | 5.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 395 | 60 | Hyndburn | Sarah Smith | 76,126 | 47.8 | 16.6 | 16.9 | 8.1 | 40.8 | 12.1 | 5.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 416 | 39 | Blackpool North and Fleetwood | Lorraine Beavers | 73,339 | 57.0 | 17.2 | 19.1 | 8.7 | 45.7 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 428 | 26 | Westmorland and Lonsdale | Tim Farron | 72,029 | 68.8 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 56.5 | 30.5 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 434 | 20 | Hazel Grove | Lisa Smart | 72,843 | 63.1 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 49.5 | 35.3 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.