North West: Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 18.8%3 18.8%00+03
LAB 44.8%66 44.8%00+066
LIB 7.8%3 7.9%00+03
Reform 16.6%0 16.6%00+00
Green 7.0%0 7.0%00+00
Other 4.9%1 4.9%00+01

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Chorley' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Westmorland and Lonsdale', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Altrincham and Sale West (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Stalybridge and Hyde (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
1533Chorley Lindsay Hoyle74,57545.
2532Liverpool Walton Dan Carden69,31753.23.570.62.615.
3531Bootle Peter Dowd73,03753.24.368.73.412.
4530Knowsley Anneliese Midgley72,08750.
5529Liverpool West Derby Ian Byrne69,93454.
6528Liverpool Riverside Kim Johnson71,38045.43.661.94.910.
9525Liverpool Wavertree Paula Barker70,58156.44.857.97.08.717.00.04.5LABLAB
11523Widnes and Halewood Derek Twigg71,23353.
16518Liverpool Garston Maria Eagle69,28260.
20514Manchester Withington Jeff Smith70,54959.25.552.913.04.719.44.30.4LABLAB
25509Manchester Rusholme Afzal Khan72,60440.05.851.80.04.523.512.61.7LABLAB
26508Wallasey Angela Eagle74,08257.711.757.74.315.
28506Ellesmere Port and Bromborough Justin Madders70,79959.312.457.65.617.
36498Birkenhead Alison McGovern78,09155.27.552.15.314.
38496Salford Rebecca Long-Bailey83,63347.
39495Blackley and Middleton South Graham Stringer72,09743.59.853.
40494Manchester Central Lucy Powell85,04946.
43491Gorton and Denton Andrew Gwynne78,12546.87.950.73.814.
54480St Helens South and Whiston Marie Rimmer71,56953.
57477St Helens North David Baines75,48353.611.152.64.522.
75459Wythenshawe and Sale East Mike Kane77,76550.313.852.65.115.310.61.80.8LABLAB
77457Sefton Central Bill Esterson74,28263.917.956.45.612.
78456Stockport Navendu Mishra76,62557.011.449.98.514.911.13.70.4LABLAB
90444Runcorn and Helsby Mike Amesbury71,95558.716.
93441Wigan Lisa Nandy77,53752.710.747.44.424.
108426Stretford and Urmston Andrew Western75,15361.
118416Makerfield Josh Simons76,84552.410.945.26.831.
131403Whitehaven and Workington Josh MacAlister73,19857.
132402Leigh and Atherton Jo Platt79,76151.615.848.53.926.
137397Blackpool South Chris Webb77,45945.415.748.
141393Worsley and Eccles Michael Wheeler78,64354.
142392Ashton under Lyne Angela Rayner71,00249.912.343.
149385Lancashire West Ashley Dalton74,08359.719.650.54.617.
152382Warrington North Charlotte Nichols70,60156.716.246.86.923.
162372Bolton South and Walkden Yasmin Qureshi79,62246.411.340.93.822.67.712.71.1LABLAB
178356Chester North and Neston Samantha Dixon70,21563.723.249.84.713.
190344Stalybridge and Hyde Jonathan Reynolds72,26551.518.543.
210324Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton Jim McMahon73,17852.710.634.33.517.84.821.47.6LABLAB
215319Heywood and Middleton North Elsie Jane Blundell74,78649.617.440.66.424.
217317Warrington South Sarah Edith Hall78,39963.423.946.77.715.
219315Bury South Christian Wakeford75,33956.023.445.64.316.
220314Rochdale Paul Waugh71,26455.710.832.
222312Preston Mark Hendrick77,40051.713.
226308Lancaster and Wyre Cat Smith74,76057.523.444.93.616.
227307Cheshire Mid Andrew Graham Cooper70,38459.
240294Crewe and Nantwich Connor Naismith78,42360.223.644.14.920.
242292Wirral West Matthew Patrick72,83868.626.346.
254280Oldham East and Saddleworth Debbie Abrahams72,76055.
258275Blackburn Adnan Hussain73,25953.
261273Macclesfield Tim Roca76,41669.129.546.74.812.
277257Bolton North East Kirith Entwistle80,01154.
279255Bury North James Frith77,70358.627.943.12.916.
288246Ribble South Paul Andrew Foster73,42063.628.642.56.419.
295239Southport Patrick Brian Hurley73,64161.225.538.313.
298236Rossendale and Darwen Andy MacNae74,44059.928.340.92.821.
299235Barrow and Furness Michelle Scrogham74,98056.331.343.
303231Morecambe and Lunesdale Lizzi Collinge76,42462.928.740.89.916.
310224Burnley Oliver Ryan74,95153.020.331.723.
313221Carlisle Julie Minns77,86359.
315219Blackpool North and Fleetwood Lorraine Beavers73,33957.028.940.
316218Bolton West Phil Brickell74,93359.527.938.94.419.
319215Penrith and Solway Markus Campbell-Savours77,93563.229.940.59.715.
346188Altrincham and Sale West Connor Rand74,02569.532.340.
358176Congleton Sarah Alison Russell74,24367.531.037.65.716.
374160Hyndburn Sarah Smith76,12647.828.933.53.320.713.60.00.0LABLAB
376157Hazel Grove Lisa Smart72,84363.119.623.537.715.
393141Pendle and Clitheroe Jonathan James Hinder78,79659.332.734.54.517.
397137Ribble Valley Maya Ellis80,48464.633.334.99.716.
419115Fylde Andrew Snowden77,10062.233.332.04.617.
423111Tatton Esther McVey75,97868.338.436.28.911.
44985Chester South and Eddisbury Aphra Brandreth74,28470.738.032.110.412.
45776Cheadle Tom Morrison74,38368.222.615.646.710.
49637Westmorland and Lonsdale Tim Farron72,02968.819.44.762.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.