North West: Majority Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 37.5%32 35.7%17-626
LAB 47.3%42 51.3%70+749
LIB 7.9%1 5.1%01-10
Brexit 3.9%0 2.3%00+00
Green 2.5%0 3.3%00+00
Other 1.1%0 2.3%00+00

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Liverpool Walton, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Penrith and The Border, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Cheadle (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Southport (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Brexit
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2019
Win
Pred
Win
1563Liverpool Walton Dan Carden62,62865.18.985.81.10.02.20.02.0LABLAB
2562Knowsley George Howarth84,08265.37.383.41.23.72.90.01.6LABLAB
3561Bootle Peter Dowd74,83265.78.382.42.23.23.00.00.9LABLAB
4560Liverpool Riverside Kim Johnson80,31065.77.080.73.02.06.30.00.9LABLAB
5559Manchester Gorton Afzal Khan76,41958.38.680.63.32.14.50.00.9LABLAB
6558Liverpool West Derby Ian Byrne65,64067.08.580.11.72.81.90.05.0LABLAB
10554Liverpool Wavertree Paula Barker63,45868.48.876.45.52.74.10.02.5LABLAB
11553Chorley Lindsay Hoyle78,17751.00.067.30.00.09.023.70.0LABLAB
19545Garston and Halewood Maria Eagle76,11670.111.776.33.73.33.10.01.9LABLAB
20544Manchester Withington Jeff Smith76,53069.29.973.18.91.54.90.01.7LABLAB
22542Manchester Central Lucy Powell92,24756.713.374.33.92.74.40.01.4LABLAB
35529Birkenhead Mick Whitley63,76266.411.861.82.32.13.917.20.9LABLAB
45519Halton Derek Twigg71,93064.220.467.92.34.93.10.01.4LABLAB
47517Blackburn Kate Hollern71,23462.822.068.51.53.82.40.01.8LABLAB
48516St Helens South and Whiston Marie Rimmer79,06163.618.664.13.46.55.80.01.8LABLAB
52512Wallasey Angela Eagle66,31070.122.967.82.32.73.20.01.1LABLAB
56508Blackley and Broughton Graham Stringer73,37252.622.666.12.44.33.30.01.3LABLAB
60504Preston Mark Hendrick59,67256.623.865.83.03.22.80.01.3LABLAB
68496Salford and Eccles Rebecca Long-Bailey82,20261.622.661.93.65.15.20.01.6LABLAB
71493Stretford and Urmston Kate Green72,37269.225.564.13.52.13.50.01.2LABLAB
74490Sefton Central Bill Esterson69,76072.925.861.83.92.93.40.02.2LABLAB
80484St Helens North Conor McGinn75,59362.924.658.03.36.95.40.01.8LABLAB
88476Stockport Navendu Mishra65,39163.826.057.77.22.84.60.01.8LABLAB
90474Oldham West and Royton Jim McMahon72,99960.928.359.42.04.52.40.03.4LABLAB
98466Wythenshawe and Sale East Mike Kane76,31358.728.158.04.13.74.50.01.6LABLAB
105459Rochdale Tony Lloyd78,90960.129.256.84.14.93.20.01.7LABLAB
113451Bolton South East Yasmin Qureshi69,16358.732.357.12.14.42.80.01.3LABLAB
117447Ellesmere Port and Neston Justin Madders70,32769.333.457.12.92.72.80.01.2LABLAB
120444Wigan Lisa Nandy75,68059.529.852.83.28.04.20.01.9LABLAB
124440Denton and Reddish Andrew Gwynne66,23458.332.154.52.54.83.90.02.2LABLAB
129435Lancashire West Rosie Cooper73,34771.834.355.82.92.63.20.01.2LABLAB
137427Wirral South Alison McGovern57,28076.035.255.04.01.73.00.01.2LABLAB
144420Makerfield Yvonne Fovargue74,19059.732.451.02.88.03.90.01.9LABLAB
156408Ashton under Lyne Angela Rayner67,97856.835.052.42.15.04.10.01.4LABLAB
160404Chester, City of Chris Matheson76,05771.736.453.44.11.53.50.01.2LABLAB
175389Worsley and Eccles South Barbara Keeley75,21959.436.550.43.34.43.90.01.5LABLAB
176388Stalybridge and Hyde Jonathan Reynolds73,06458.036.049.52.65.14.30.02.5LABLAB
180384Wirral West Margaret Greenwood55,55077.339.251.73.71.23.00.01.1LABLAB
187377Lancaster and Fleetwood Cat Smith70,05964.539.650.42.62.43.90.01.1LABLAB
189375Warrington North Charlotte Nichols72,23564.638.948.63.93.43.70.01.4LABLAB
190374Oldham East and Saddleworth Debbie Abrahams72,12064.038.347.93.13.92.60.04.2LABLAB
199365Weaver Vale Mike Amesbury70,55171.941.848.63.91.72.90.01.2LABLAB
205359Heywood and Middleton Chris Clarkson80,16259.241.146.32.65.03.60.01.4CONLAB
207357Bolton North East Mark Logan67,56464.543.448.02.52.62.40.01.1CONLAB
208356Bury North James Daly68,80268.144.348.92.01.62.30.00.9CONLAB
209355Bury South Christian Wakeford75,15266.941.846.42.72.02.40.04.6CONLAB
210354Burnley Antony Higginbotham64,34560.638.342.75.35.23.20.05.2CONLAB
216348Warrington South Andy Carter86,01572.043.646.75.51.61.00.01.7CONLAB
221343Leigh James Grundy77,41760.743.345.42.84.10.90.03.5CONLAB
236328Hyndburn Sara Britcliffe70,84259.946.544.91.73.12.70.01.1CONCON
237327Southport Damien Moore70,83768.045.643.88.00.01.10.01.5CONCON
255309Workington Mark Jenkinson61,37067.847.342.62.22.62.20.03.3CONCON
257307Altrincham and Sale West Graham Brady73,10774.946.141.16.50.03.80.02.6CONCON
260304Blackpool South Scott Benton57,69056.847.642.01.83.72.50.02.3CONCON
273291Barrow and Furness Simon Fell70,15865.649.942.52.61.82.20.01.0CONCON
279285Copeland Trudy Harrison61,69368.951.842.52.60.02.30.00.8CONCON
280284Morecambe and Lunesdale David Morris67,39767.250.841.43.00.02.70.02.0CONCON
281283Pendle Andrew Stephenson65,28968.152.242.52.10.02.00.01.3CONCON
288276Crewe and Nantwich Kieran Mullan80,32167.351.140.62.91.62.50.01.3CONCON
300264Bolton West Chris Green73,19167.453.340.13.20.02.50.00.9CONCON
303261Macclesfield David Rutley76,21670.750.536.76.20.05.20.01.3CONCON
306258Carlisle John Stevenson65,10565.953.238.83.90.00.70.03.4CONCON
309255Rossendale and Darwen Jake Berry72,77067.154.539.42.40.03.00.00.8CONCON
310254Ribble South Katherine Fletcher75,35171.453.838.14.10.02.90.01.0CONCON
322242Blackpool North and Cleveleys Paul Maynard63,69260.955.637.82.30.02.40.01.9CONCON
355209Cheadle Mary Robinson74,57775.044.018.933.60.01.50.02.1CONCON
365199Wyre and Preston North Ben Wallace74,77570.857.731.55.00.04.00.01.7CONCON
367197Congleton Fiona Bruce80,93070.757.030.66.20.03.70.02.4CONCON
372192Eddisbury Edward Timpson73,70071.954.828.110.70.03.60.02.8CONCON
380184Hazel Grove William Wragg63,34669.946.819.030.60.01.50.02.1CONCON
381183Ribble Valley Nigel Evans79,24769.858.330.65.10.03.90.02.1CONCON
385179Tatton Esther McVey69,01870.955.827.79.30.05.50.01.7CONCON
404160Fylde Mark Menzies66,84769.859.028.84.80.04.50.03.1CONCON
423141Westmorland and Lonsdale Tim Farron67,78977.843.311.340.80.91.50.02.2LIBCON
426138Penrith and The Border Neil Hudson67,55570.858.425.96.60.05.50.03.6CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.