North West: Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 18.8%3 18.8%00+03
LAB 44.8%66 44.8%00+066
LIB 7.8%3 7.9%00+03
Reform 16.6%0 16.6%00+00
Green 7.0%0 7.0%00+00
Other 4.9%1 4.9%00+01

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Chorley' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Westmorland and Lonsdale', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Altrincham and Sale West (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Stalybridge and Hyde (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
1533Chorley Lindsay Hoyle74,57545.50.174.30.20.113.70.011.5LABLAB
2532Liverpool Walton Dan Carden69,31753.23.570.62.615.76.50.01.2LABLAB
3531Bootle Peter Dowd73,03753.24.368.73.412.210.01.40.0LABLAB
4530Knowsley Anneliese Midgley72,08750.04.267.23.416.47.70.70.4LABLAB
5529Liverpool West Derby Ian Byrne69,93454.34.266.63.512.97.00.05.9LABLAB
6528Liverpool Riverside Kim Johnson71,38045.43.661.94.910.116.20.03.3LABLAB
9525Liverpool Wavertree Paula Barker70,58156.44.857.97.08.717.00.04.5LABLAB
11523Widnes and Halewood Derek Twigg71,23353.59.261.64.218.55.41.10.0LABLAB
16518Liverpool Garston Maria Eagle69,28260.67.158.47.910.66.70.09.3LABLAB
20514Manchester Withington Jeff Smith70,54959.25.552.913.04.719.44.30.4LABLAB
25509Manchester Rusholme Afzal Khan72,60440.05.851.80.04.523.512.61.7LABLAB
26508Wallasey Angela Eagle74,08257.711.757.74.315.69.11.10.4LABLAB
28506Ellesmere Port and Bromborough Justin Madders70,79959.312.457.65.617.46.40.00.6LABLAB
36498Birkenhead Alison McGovern78,09155.27.552.15.314.220.10.00.7LABLAB
38496Salford Rebecca Long-Bailey83,63347.59.053.27.015.213.12.00.5LABLAB
39495Blackley and Middleton South Graham Stringer72,09743.59.853.85.121.110.20.00.0LABLAB
40494Manchester Central Lucy Powell85,04946.77.150.87.712.016.14.81.5LABLAB
43491Gorton and Denton Andrew Gwynne78,12546.87.950.73.814.113.210.30.0LABLAB
54480St Helens South and Whiston Marie Rimmer71,56953.18.249.76.018.46.90.010.7LABLAB
57477St Helens North David Baines75,48353.611.152.64.522.58.60.00.6LABLAB
75459Wythenshawe and Sale East Mike Kane77,76550.313.852.65.115.310.61.80.8LABLAB
77457Sefton Central Bill Esterson74,28263.917.956.45.612.26.90.01.0LABLAB
78456Stockport Navendu Mishra76,62557.011.449.98.514.911.13.70.4LABLAB
90444Runcorn and Helsby Mike Amesbury71,95558.716.052.95.118.26.40.01.3LABLAB
93441Wigan Lisa Nandy77,53752.710.747.44.424.24.00.09.4LABLAB
108426Stretford and Urmston Andrew Western75,15361.214.149.24.811.99.69.70.6LABLAB
118416Makerfield Josh Simons76,84552.410.945.26.831.84.40.00.9LABLAB
131403Whitehaven and Workington Josh MacAlister73,19857.220.253.02.721.22.90.00.0LABLAB
132402Leigh and Atherton Jo Platt79,76151.615.848.53.926.94.00.00.9LABLAB
137397Blackpool South Chris Webb77,45945.415.748.13.028.63.40.01.2LABLAB
141393Worsley and Eccles Michael Wheeler78,64354.116.047.74.421.67.71.11.6LABLAB
142392Ashton under Lyne Angela Rayner71,00249.912.343.94.024.87.08.00.0LABLAB
149385Lancashire West Ashley Dalton74,08359.719.650.54.617.97.40.00.0LABLAB
152382Warrington North Charlotte Nichols70,60156.716.246.86.923.84.70.01.6LABLAB
162372Bolton South and Walkden Yasmin Qureshi79,62246.411.340.93.822.67.712.71.1LABLAB
178356Chester North and Neston Samantha Dixon70,21563.723.249.84.713.19.20.00.0LABLAB
190344Stalybridge and Hyde Jonathan Reynolds72,26551.518.543.83.020.97.43.33.1LABLAB
210324Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton Jim McMahon73,17852.710.634.33.517.84.821.47.6LABLAB
215319Heywood and Middleton North Elsie Jane Blundell74,78649.617.440.66.424.30.00.011.3LABLAB
217317Warrington South Sarah Edith Hall78,39963.423.946.77.715.94.70.01.1LABLAB
219315Bury South Christian Wakeford75,33956.023.445.64.316.36.42.41.5LABLAB
220314Rochdale Paul Waugh71,26455.710.832.87.117.13.129.20.0LABLAB
222312Preston Mark Hendrick77,40051.713.135.08.114.44.421.83.3LABLAB
226308Lancaster and Wyre Cat Smith74,76057.523.444.93.616.012.20.00.0LABLAB
227307Cheshire Mid Andrew Graham Cooper70,38459.023.044.56.019.24.70.02.6LABLAB
240294Crewe and Nantwich Connor Naismith78,42360.223.644.14.920.44.60.81.7LABLAB
242292Wirral West Matthew Patrick72,83868.626.346.36.112.98.30.00.0LABLAB
254280Oldham East and Saddleworth Debbie Abrahams72,76055.117.135.28.619.33.711.64.5LABLAB
258275Blackburn Adnan Hussain73,25953.19.126.72.012.53.627.019.0MINMIN
261273Macclesfield Tim Roca76,41669.129.546.74.812.54.70.01.8LABLAB
277257Bolton North East Kirith Entwistle80,01154.222.037.33.521.810.83.41.3LABLAB
279255Bury North James Frith77,70358.627.943.12.916.23.84.21.8LABLAB
288246Ribble South Paul Andrew Foster73,42063.628.642.56.419.33.40.00.0LABLAB
295239Southport Patrick Brian Hurley73,64161.225.538.313.116.44.80.02.0LABLAB
298236Rossendale and Darwen Andy MacNae74,44059.928.340.92.821.75.21.10.0LABLAB
299235Barrow and Furness Michelle Scrogham74,98056.331.343.94.016.73.50.00.7LABLAB
303231Morecambe and Lunesdale Lizzi Collinge76,42462.928.740.89.916.34.30.00.0LABLAB
310224Burnley Oliver Ryan74,95153.020.331.723.119.53.80.01.5LABLAB
313221Carlisle Julie Minns77,86359.128.139.46.520.24.20.01.5LABLAB
315219Blackpool North and Fleetwood Lorraine Beavers73,33957.028.940.03.223.73.00.01.1LABLAB
316218Bolton West Phil Brickell74,93359.527.938.94.419.19.30.00.4LABLAB
319215Penrith and Solway Markus Campbell-Savours77,93563.229.940.59.715.53.50.00.9LABLAB
346188Altrincham and Sale West Connor Rand74,02569.532.340.49.29.67.21.20.0LABLAB
358176Congleton Sarah Alison Russell74,24367.531.037.65.716.54.00.05.2LABLAB
374160Hyndburn Sarah Smith76,12647.828.933.53.320.713.60.00.0LABLAB
376157Hazel Grove Lisa Smart72,84363.119.623.537.715.13.80.00.2LIBLIB
393141Pendle and Clitheroe Jonathan James Hinder78,79659.332.734.54.517.53.00.77.0LABLAB
397137Ribble Valley Maya Ellis80,48464.633.334.99.716.43.30.02.3LABLAB
419115Fylde Andrew Snowden77,10062.233.332.04.617.43.30.09.4CONCON
423111Tatton Esther McVey75,97868.338.436.28.911.55.00.00.0CONCON
44985Chester South and Eddisbury Aphra Brandreth74,28470.738.032.110.412.24.30.02.9CONCON
45776Cheadle Tom Morrison74,38368.222.615.646.710.23.21.60.2LIBLIB
49637Westmorland and Lonsdale Tim Farron72,02968.819.44.762.79.83.00.00.5LIBLIB

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.