| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 18.8% | 3 | 17.3% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| LAB | 44.8% | 66 | 38.0% | 2 | 1 | +1 | 67 |
| LIB | 7.8% | 3 | 5.8% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 3 |
| Reform | 16.6% | 0 | 22.1% | 1 | 0 | +1 | 1 |
| Green | 7.0% | 0 | 8.4% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Other | 4.9% | 1 | 8.4% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Manchester Withington' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Westmorland and Lonsdale', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Ribble Valley (prediction: LAB), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Stockport (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 422 | Manchester Withington | Jeff Smith | 70,549 | 59.2 | 5.9 | 54.6 | 1.5 | 6.2 | 26.4 | 5.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 16 | 407 | Manchester Rusholme | Afzal Khan | 72,604 | 40.0 | 6.5 | 47.0 | 0.6 | 6.6 | 32.1 | 7.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 19 | 404 | Liverpool Walton | Dan Carden | 69,317 | 53.2 | 3.1 | 62.4 | 0.6 | 22.4 | 1.8 | 9.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 21 | 402 | Chorley | Lindsay Hoyle | 74,575 | 45.5 | 9.6 | 53.9 | 2.1 | 14.6 | 11.2 | 8.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 22 | 401 | Bootle | Peter Dowd | 73,037 | 53.2 | 5.7 | 58.1 | 1.7 | 18.9 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 24 | 399 | Liverpool West Derby | Ian Byrne | 69,934 | 54.3 | 4.3 | 61.1 | 0.9 | 22.2 | 2.4 | 9.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 36 | 387 | Knowsley | Anneliese Midgley | 72,087 | 50.0 | 3.0 | 60.1 | 0.6 | 24.9 | 1.3 | 10.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 43 | 380 | Liverpool Riverside | Kim Johnson | 71,380 | 45.4 | 8.5 | 48.0 | 3.4 | 13.3 | 18.2 | 8.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 47 | 376 | Liverpool Wavertree | Paula Barker | 70,581 | 56.4 | 10.4 | 47.6 | 5.4 | 13.3 | 16.3 | 7.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 55 | 368 | Wallasey | Angela Eagle | 74,082 | 57.7 | 6.8 | 55.2 | 1.4 | 23.1 | 4.1 | 9.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 62 | 361 | Widnes and Halewood | Derek Twigg | 71,233 | 53.5 | 3.7 | 57.5 | 0.5 | 26.9 | 1.1 | 10.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 64 | 359 | Ellesmere Port and Bromborough | Justin Madders | 70,799 | 59.3 | 4.3 | 57.3 | 0.7 | 26.8 | 1.4 | 9.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 67 | 356 | Sefton Central | Bill Esterson | 74,282 | 63.9 | 15.5 | 48.5 | 3.7 | 18.4 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 73 | 350 | Stretford and Urmston | Andrew Western | 75,153 | 61.2 | 15.1 | 45.1 | 3.1 | 15.8 | 12.8 | 8.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 74 | 349 | Altrincham and Sale West | Connor Rand | 74,025 | 69.5 | 34.0 | 39.8 | 2.8 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 80 | 343 | Blackley and Middleton South | Graham Stringer | 72,097 | 43.5 | 4.8 | 53.8 | 1.0 | 25.0 | 3.7 | 11.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 88 | 335 | Wythenshawe and Sale East | Mike Kane | 77,765 | 50.3 | 10.9 | 46.4 | 2.6 | 19.5 | 10.5 | 10.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 89 | 334 | Liverpool Garston | Maria Eagle | 69,282 | 60.6 | 14.3 | 45.7 | 6.7 | 18.9 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 92 | 331 | Manchester Central | Lucy Powell | 85,049 | 46.7 | 11.0 | 41.3 | 4.5 | 15.4 | 18.9 | 8.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 97 | 326 | Stockport | Navendu Mishra | 76,625 | 57.0 | 10.8 | 45.8 | 4.3 | 20.4 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 99 | 324 | Salford | Rebecca Long-Bailey | 83,633 | 47.5 | 10.8 | 42.4 | 3.8 | 17.4 | 15.7 | 10.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 101 | 322 | Macclesfield | Tim Roca | 76,416 | 69.1 | 26.5 | 41.9 | 4.5 | 17.0 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 106 | 317 | Birkenhead | Alison McGovern | 78,091 | 55.2 | 8.9 | 43.2 | 3.6 | 18.7 | 16.1 | 9.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 111 | 312 | Wirral West | Matthew Patrick | 72,838 | 68.6 | 20.9 | 42.6 | 5.4 | 19.2 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 113 | 310 | Chester North and Neston | Samantha Dixon | 70,215 | 63.7 | 18.3 | 42.8 | 4.4 | 19.6 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 115 | 308 | St Helens South and Whiston | Marie Rimmer | 71,569 | 53.1 | 4.7 | 52.7 | 0.7 | 29.9 | 1.2 | 10.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 121 | 302 | Worsley and Eccles | Michael Wheeler | 78,643 | 54.1 | 6.5 | 50.5 | 0.9 | 28.7 | 2.4 | 10.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 130 | 293 | Blackburn | Adnan Hussain | 73,259 | 53.1 | 32.2 | 33.6 | 1.5 | 12.4 | 9.6 | 10.7 | 0.0 | MIN | LAB |
| 132 | 291 | Chester South and Eddisbury | Aphra Brandreth | 74,284 | 70.7 | 34.5 | 35.0 | 3.8 | 14.0 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 0.0 | CON | LAB |
| 134 | 289 | St Helens North | David Baines | 75,483 | 53.6 | 4.2 | 51.8 | 0.6 | 31.0 | 1.1 | 11.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 146 | 277 | Lancashire West | Ashley Dalton | 74,083 | 59.7 | 11.2 | 47.0 | 2.6 | 27.9 | 3.7 | 7.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 147 | 275 | Tatton | Esther McVey | 75,978 | 68.3 | 34.2 | 34.0 | 4.8 | 15.0 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 156 | 267 | Warrington North | Charlotte Nichols | 70,601 | 56.7 | 5.0 | 50.1 | 0.7 | 31.9 | 1.0 | 11.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 160 | 263 | Ashton-under-Lyne | Angela Rayner | 71,002 | 49.9 | 4.8 | 49.2 | 0.5 | 31.4 | 1.3 | 12.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 161 | 262 | Bolton South and Walkden | Yasmin Qureshi | 79,622 | 46.4 | 5.9 | 48.1 | 0.7 | 30.2 | 2.3 | 12.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 162 | 261 | Bury North | James Frith | 77,703 | 58.6 | 23.8 | 38.8 | 4.0 | 21.0 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 168 | 255 | Lancaster and Wyre | Cat Smith | 74,760 | 57.5 | 15.6 | 40.1 | 3.5 | 22.8 | 10.6 | 7.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 180 | 243 | Wigan | Lisa Nandy | 77,537 | 52.7 | 4.9 | 49.0 | 0.5 | 32.8 | 0.9 | 11.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 181 | 242 | Warrington South | Sarah Edith Hall | 78,399 | 63.4 | 19.8 | 38.7 | 6.1 | 22.5 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 183 | 240 | Runcorn and Helsby | Mike Amesbury | 71,955 | 58.7 | 4.7 | 52.4 | 0.6 | 36.4 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 186 | 237 | Stalybridge and Hyde | Jonathan Reynolds | 72,265 | 51.5 | 9.6 | 44.6 | 1.4 | 28.9 | 3.7 | 11.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 189 | 233 | Fylde | Andrew Snowden | 77,100 | 62.2 | 37.6 | 30.3 | 3.5 | 14.9 | 3.7 | 9.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 195 | 228 | Whitehaven and Workington | Josh MacAlister | 73,198 | 57.2 | 5.6 | 49.9 | 0.6 | 34.8 | 0.7 | 8.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 197 | 226 | Makerfield | Josh Simons | 76,845 | 52.4 | 2.6 | 50.9 | 0.3 | 36.0 | 0.5 | 9.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 199 | 224 | Preston | Mark Hendrick | 77,400 | 51.7 | 19.5 | 35.0 | 4.5 | 20.3 | 10.0 | 10.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 203 | 220 | Bury South | Christian Wakeford | 75,339 | 56.0 | 19.2 | 37.0 | 4.7 | 22.8 | 7.7 | 8.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 213 | 210 | Crewe and Nantwich | Connor Naismith | 78,423 | 60.2 | 13.7 | 42.4 | 2.7 | 29.0 | 3.9 | 8.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 214 | 209 | Rochdale | Paul Waugh | 71,264 | 55.7 | 19.6 | 34.3 | 4.2 | 21.0 | 9.8 | 11.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 225 | 198 | Cheshire Mid | Andrew Graham Cooper | 70,384 | 59.0 | 14.5 | 41.4 | 3.4 | 28.4 | 4.0 | 8.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 229 | 194 | South Ribble | Paul Andrew Foster | 73,420 | 63.6 | 23.0 | 37.0 | 5.3 | 24.2 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 233 | 190 | Heywood and Middleton North | Elsie Jane Blundell | 74,786 | 49.6 | 8.0 | 44.7 | 1.1 | 32.2 | 1.7 | 12.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 234 | 189 | Penrith and Solway | Markus Campbell-Savours | 77,935 | 63.2 | 23.4 | 36.0 | 6.9 | 23.6 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 235 | 188 | Leigh and Atherton | Jo Platt | 79,761 | 51.6 | 4.8 | 46.9 | 0.5 | 34.5 | 0.9 | 12.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 246 | 177 | Blackpool South | Chris Webb | 77,459 | 45.4 | 4.6 | 45.8 | 0.4 | 34.2 | 0.9 | 14.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 250 | 173 | Rossendale and Darwen | Andy MacNae | 74,440 | 59.9 | 21.4 | 36.4 | 3.5 | 25.1 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 255 | 168 | Bolton North East | Kirith Entwistle | 80,011 | 54.2 | 15.0 | 38.5 | 2.8 | 27.5 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 257 | 166 | Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton | Jim McMahon | 73,178 | 52.7 | 19.1 | 33.6 | 3.2 | 22.9 | 9.6 | 11.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 268 | 155 | Morecambe and Lunesdale | Lizzi Collinge | 76,424 | 62.9 | 23.8 | 34.1 | 8.2 | 23.9 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 275 | 148 | Gorton and Denton | Andrew Gwynne | 78,125 | 46.8 | 8.1 | 33.3 | 2.7 | 23.7 | 27.2 | 5.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 279 | 144 | Burnley | Oliver Ryan | 74,951 | 53.0 | 6.3 | 45.4 | 2.1 | 36.0 | 1.0 | 9.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 295 | 128 | Bolton West | Phil Brickell | 74,933 | 59.5 | 24.1 | 32.4 | 6.3 | 24.6 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 296 | 127 | Southport | Patrick Brian Hurley | 73,641 | 61.2 | 21.2 | 33.2 | 8.2 | 25.5 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 297 | 126 | Barrow and Furness | Michelle Scrogham | 74,980 | 56.3 | 21.8 | 34.0 | 4.3 | 26.4 | 4.6 | 8.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 298 | 125 | Carlisle | Julie Minns | 77,863 | 59.1 | 22.6 | 33.7 | 5.5 | 26.1 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 300 | 123 | Congleton | Sarah Alison Russell | 74,243 | 67.5 | 26.2 | 32.1 | 5.5 | 24.7 | 3.9 | 7.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 309 | 114 | Hyndburn | Sarah Smith | 76,126 | 47.8 | 21.1 | 31.7 | 3.6 | 25.0 | 10.9 | 7.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 313 | 110 | Blackpool North and Fleetwood | Lorraine Beavers | 73,339 | 57.0 | 20.1 | 36.0 | 3.0 | 29.5 | 3.8 | 7.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 324 | 99 | Oldham East and Saddleworth | Debbie Abrahams | 72,760 | 55.1 | 20.5 | 31.2 | 5.8 | 25.5 | 6.4 | 10.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 338 | 85 | Ribble Valley | Maya Ellis | 80,484 | 64.6 | 26.6 | 29.8 | 6.9 | 25.5 | 3.7 | 7.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 356 | 66 | Hazel Grove | Lisa Smart | 72,843 | 63.1 | 19.9 | 23.4 | 25.4 | 21.6 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 357 | 65 | Cheadle | Tom Morrison | 74,383 | 68.2 | 23.0 | 18.4 | 34.0 | 16.9 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 389 | 34 | Pendle and Clitheroe | Jonathan James Hinder | 78,796 | 59.3 | 27.0 | 25.8 | 5.9 | 28.8 | 3.9 | 8.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 405 | 17 | Westmorland and Lonsdale | Tim Farron | 72,029 | 68.8 | 20.9 | 12.9 | 38.4 | 19.6 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.