North West: Majority Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 36.2%20 28.4%33+020
LAB 54.9%54 37.0%03-351
LIB 5.4%1 14.5%30+34
Brexit 0.0%0 14.6%00+00
Green 1.1%0 3.3%00+00
UKIP 1.9%0 0.9%00+00
Other 0.5%0 1.2%00+00

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Manchester Gorton, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Penrith and The Border, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Congleton (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Pendle (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Brexit
%
Green
%
UKIP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
1546Manchester Gorton Mohammed Khan75,36261.011.660.113.17.46.00.90.00.9LABLAB
6541Liverpool Walton Dan Carden62,73867.313.457.411.111.83.90.90.01.4LABLAB
8539Liverpool West Derby Stephen Twigg65,16469.314.356.711.311.63.61.00.01.6LABLAB
9538Liverpool Riverside Louise Ellman76,33262.912.854.415.16.59.20.90.01.1LABLAB
10537Knowsley George Howarth81,75167.914.255.211.613.03.61.10.01.4LABLAB
14533Bootle Peter Dowd72,87269.015.454.111.812.14.01.00.01.7LABLAB
15532Liverpool Wavertree Luciana Berger62,41169.914.652.317.38.94.70.90.01.3LABLAB
16531Manchester Central Lucy Powell90,26155.115.252.613.99.96.41.00.01.1LABLAB
21526Manchester Withington Jeff Smith74,55371.912.247.727.25.16.00.80.01.0LABLAB
24523Blackburn Kate Hollern70,65767.222.755.37.711.01.90.70.00.8LABLAB
25522Garston and Halewood Maria Eagle75,24871.118.450.514.011.13.90.80.01.3LABLAB
29518Birkenhead Frank Field64,48467.718.450.012.612.34.40.90.01.4LABLAB
31516Blackley and Broughton Graham Stringer71,64856.020.050.89.613.73.71.00.01.1LABLAB
42505Preston Mark Hendrick57,79161.621.147.611.114.53.71.00.01.0LABLAB
44503Halton Derek Twigg73,45767.421.046.510.915.93.01.10.01.5LABLAB
45502Wallasey Angela Eagle67,45471.721.446.711.514.23.71.00.01.4LABLAB
49498Oldham West and Royton Jim McMahon72,41863.223.747.98.715.42.50.90.00.9LABLAB
55492Stretford and Urmston Kate Green71,84069.923.546.211.912.53.90.90.01.1LABLAB
58489St Helens South and Whiston Marie Rimmer79,03666.921.443.113.215.64.21.10.01.3LABLAB
60487Salford and Eccles Rebecca Long-Bailey78,08261.022.243.112.715.14.51.10.01.2LABLAB
62485Rochdale Tony Lloyd78,06464.123.844.613.913.62.30.90.00.9LABLAB
72475Bolton South East Yasmin Qureshi68,88661.425.044.08.717.33.01.10.00.9LABLAB
77470Stockport Ann Coffey63,42565.523.641.914.713.44.20.90.01.1LABLAB
93454Wythenshawe and Sale East Mike Kane76,36160.024.441.313.514.83.71.00.01.3LABLAB
96451Denton and Reddish Andrew Gwynne65,75160.224.340.711.117.93.51.20.01.3LABLAB
98449St Helens North Conor McGinn76,08866.024.440.412.016.93.91.10.01.3LABLAB
109438Wigan Lisa Nandy75,35963.125.339.710.818.53.31.20.01.2LABLAB
114433Ashton under Lyne Angela Rayner67,67458.826.440.19.818.23.31.10.01.1LABLAB
122425Sefton Central Bill Esterson69,01975.527.840.315.111.73.20.80.01.2LABLAB
127420Makerfield Yvonne Fovargue74,25963.227.639.511.217.22.50.80.01.2LABLAB
146401Oldham East and Saddleworth Debbie Abrahams72,22365.128.838.312.516.32.21.00.00.9LABLAB
147400Ellesmere Port and Neston Justin Madders68,66674.229.338.711.915.12.90.90.01.3LABLAB
148399Stalybridge and Hyde Jonathan Reynolds71,40959.528.837.611.715.74.20.90.01.1LABLAB
154393Lancashire West Rosie Cooper73,25874.229.938.112.214.23.40.80.01.4LABLAB
157390Worsley and Eccles South Barbara Keeley73,69261.929.537.311.715.83.60.90.01.3LABLAB
164383Leigh Joanne Platt76,21161.528.836.110.819.62.31.10.01.2LABLAB
166381Chester, City of Chris Matheson72,85977.430.837.914.512.12.80.70.01.3LABLAB
167380Warrington North Helen Jones72,01567.429.236.212.017.13.21.00.01.2LABLAB
169378Wirral South Alison McGovern57,67078.430.737.714.512.13.00.70.01.3LABLAB
172375Hyndburn Graham Jones73,11061.830.937.49.318.12.41.00.01.0LABLAB
177370Burnley Julie Cooper64,71462.325.931.818.718.82.61.10.01.0LABLAB
178369Lancaster and Fleetwood Cat Smith67,17168.530.235.913.713.64.70.80.01.1LABLAB
180367Heywood and Middleton Liz McInnes79,90162.429.835.210.919.42.41.10.01.1LABLAB
182365Bolton North East David Crausby67,23367.231.836.611.016.12.60.90.01.0LABLAB
185362Bury South Ivan Lewis73,72369.231.736.211.915.12.90.90.01.4LABLAB
186361Bury North James Frith67,58770.933.237.311.613.82.40.70.01.0LABLAB
188359Chorley Lindsay Hoyle76,40472.832.335.911.815.12.90.80.01.2LABLAB
189358Wirral West Margaret Greenwood55,99578.532.635.914.712.02.70.70.01.3LABLAB
203344Blackpool South Gordon Marsden58,45059.831.633.29.820.22.91.10.01.3LABLAB
204343Workington Sue Hayman60,25669.232.133.511.518.12.41.10.01.4LABLAB
208339Weaver Vale Mike Amesbury69,01673.332.834.014.113.83.40.80.01.2LABLAB
220327Pendle Andrew Stephenson64,96369.035.435.09.615.92.50.70.00.9CONCON
228319Warrington South Faisal Rashid85,75572.333.131.716.313.52.60.90.01.8LABCON
235312Barrow and Furness John Woodcock69,47468.534.531.911.916.82.90.90.01.2LABCON
239308Crewe and Nantwich Laura Smith78,89569.734.531.611.917.72.21.00.01.2LABCON
250297Bolton West Chris Green72,79770.135.531.112.816.52.20.90.01.1CONCON
257290Morecambe and Lunesdale David Morris66,83868.334.930.112.817.13.00.90.01.2CONCON
263284Carlisle John Stevenson62,29469.135.429.711.618.62.51.00.01.2CONCON
264283Blackpool North and Cleveleys Paul Maynard63,96764.135.629.610.419.52.61.00.01.3CONCON
265282Rossendale and Darwen Jake Berry72,49569.236.330.112.216.33.10.80.01.2CONCON
266281Copeland Trudy Harrison61,75169.536.230.011.917.42.40.90.01.2CONCON
280266Southport Damien Moore69,40069.129.120.731.714.52.10.80.01.1CONLIB
291256Altrincham and Sale West Graham Brady73,22072.136.526.820.111.23.40.70.01.2CONCON
307240Ribble South Seema Kennedy75,75272.438.826.313.017.22.40.90.01.4CONCON
309238Macclesfield David Rutley75,22872.237.624.717.413.73.80.90.01.8CONCON
336211Congleton Fiona Bruce76,69473.339.922.716.815.73.00.80.01.1CONCON
340207Eddisbury Antoinette Sandbach70,27273.040.422.916.115.62.80.90.01.3CONCON
341205Hazel Grove William Wragg62,68470.432.014.336.113.62.30.60.01.0CONLIB
342204Cheadle Mary Robinson72,78075.031.713.640.910.71.60.50.00.9CONLIB
350197Wyre and Preston North Ben Wallace72,31972.842.023.614.815.02.90.70.01.1CONCON
354193Ribble Valley Nigel Evans77,96870.841.322.614.916.13.20.70.01.1CONCON
360187Fylde Mark Menzies65,93770.541.722.314.915.63.40.70.01.2CONCON
377170Tatton Esther McVey67,87472.441.120.019.913.23.20.80.01.7CONCON
380166Westmorland and Lonsdale Tim Farron66,39177.929.48.047.911.91.50.40.01.0LIBLIB
398149Penrith and The Border Rory Stewart65,13971.341.818.617.017.23.20.90.01.4CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.