North West: Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 18.8%3 13.8%01-12
LAB 44.8%66 29.1%043-4323
LIB 7.8%3 10.8%00+03
Reform 16.6%0 33.0%450+4545
Green 7.0%0 9.4%00+00
Other 4.9%1 3.9%01-10

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Chorley' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Chester South and Eddisbury', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Chester South and Eddisbury (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Chorley (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
1186Chorley Lindsay Hoyle74,57545.53.144.27.624.514.70.05.9LABLAB
4183Liverpool Walton Dan Carden69,31753.23.739.07.637.510.60.01.7LABLAB
5182Bootle Peter Dowd73,03753.24.239.17.833.612.52.80.0LABLAB
6181Liverpool West Derby Ian Byrne69,93454.34.138.88.634.110.80.03.6LABLAB
9178Knowsley Anneliese Midgley72,08750.04.238.27.837.410.31.60.5LABLAB
13174Manchester Withington Jeff Smith70,54959.25.237.116.714.222.44.20.2LABLAB
14173Liverpool Wavertree Paula Barker70,58156.44.736.411.823.920.10.03.1LABLAB
15172Liverpool Garston Maria Eagle69,28260.66.037.412.328.710.50.05.1LABLAB
21165Widnes and Halewood Derek Twigg71,23353.56.436.58.138.48.32.40.0LABReform
24163Liverpool Riverside Kim Johnson71,38045.43.732.69.630.021.20.02.8LABLAB
29158Ellesmere Port and Bromborough Justin Madders70,79959.310.238.38.633.28.40.01.2LABLAB
31155Wallasey Angela Eagle74,08257.77.335.18.235.311.81.90.5LABReform
35152Sefton Central Bill Esterson74,28263.915.141.39.425.37.80.01.3LABLAB
38148Birkenhead Alison McGovern78,09155.25.731.49.233.518.80.01.4LABReform
40146Salford Rebecca Long-Bailey83,63347.56.330.910.233.016.52.70.5LABReform
44143Stockport Navendu Mishra76,62557.010.134.211.828.011.64.10.3LABLAB
47140Manchester Rusholme Afzal Khan72,60440.04.628.78.320.127.210.20.8LABLAB
54132Manchester Central Lucy Powell85,04946.75.328.811.429.419.74.40.9LABReform
56130Gorton and Denton Andrew Gwynne78,12546.85.428.69.233.215.38.40.0LABReform
58129Wythenshawe and Sale East Mike Kane77,76550.311.434.58.930.911.22.40.7LABLAB
59128Stretford and Urmston Andrew Western75,15361.29.232.110.028.012.18.20.3LABLAB
59127St Helens North David Baines75,48353.67.330.18.043.310.00.01.3LABReform
59127St Helens South and Whiston Marie Rimmer71,56953.15.928.79.640.49.70.05.7LABReform
61125Whitehaven and Workington Josh MacAlister73,19857.212.234.76.839.85.80.00.7LABReform
62125Runcorn and Helsby Mike Amesbury71,95558.713.035.18.433.88.20.01.6LABLAB
62124Blackley and Middleton South Graham Stringer72,09743.56.128.09.542.812.50.01.0LABReform
65121Leigh and Atherton Jo Platt79,76151.610.131.67.343.26.60.01.2LABReform
69117Wigan Lisa Nandy77,53752.78.929.77.642.06.50.05.2LABReform
72114Blackpool South Chris Webb77,45945.49.129.26.547.06.90.01.3LABReform
76110Makerfield Josh Simons76,84552.49.128.48.147.16.00.01.3LABReform
78108Worsley and Eccles Michael Wheeler78,64354.112.731.87.836.58.71.31.2LABReform
84103Lancashire West Ashley Dalton74,08359.715.834.08.033.08.20.01.0LABLAB
8799Warrington North Charlotte Nichols70,60156.712.830.78.939.56.60.01.6LABReform
8998Warrington South Sarah Edith Hall78,39963.416.434.111.229.97.30.01.1LABLAB
8997Ashton-under-Lyne Angela Rayner71,00249.99.327.06.941.38.27.30.0LABReform
9196Chester North and Neston Samantha Dixon70,21563.718.235.58.526.810.10.00.8LABLAB
9294Bury South Christian Wakeford75,33956.014.731.88.832.68.92.30.9LABReform
9691Wirral West Matthew Patrick72,83868.618.935.610.625.29.10.00.6LABLAB
9987Cheshire Mid Andrew Graham Cooper70,38459.015.131.69.334.97.20.01.8LABReform
10087Lancaster and Wyre Cat Smith74,76057.515.631.97.930.813.10.00.7LABLAB
10482Crewe and Nantwich Connor Naismith78,42360.215.030.68.236.97.10.91.2LABReform
10779Bolton South and Walkden Yasmin Qureshi79,62246.48.723.87.240.79.110.10.6LABReform
10879Macclesfield Tim Roca76,41669.120.535.69.326.07.20.01.4LABLAB
10878Stalybridge and Hyde Jonathan Reynolds72,26551.513.328.46.738.08.53.21.9LABReform
11868Bury North James Frith77,70358.617.630.17.733.36.73.61.0LABReform
11868Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton Jim McMahon73,17852.78.420.97.336.57.216.23.5LABReform
11868Heywood and Middleton North Elsie Jane Blundell74,78649.612.524.99.243.04.50.05.9LABReform
11868Southport Patrick Brian Hurley73,64161.216.428.513.533.17.00.01.5LABReform
11868Rochdale Paul Waugh71,26455.78.720.89.133.25.822.40.0LABReform
12066Preston Mark Hendrick77,40051.79.921.39.632.77.417.51.6LABReform
12165Bolton North East Kirith Entwistle80,01154.213.524.47.739.111.33.20.8LABReform
12363Oldham East and Saddleworth Debbie Abrahams72,76055.112.922.510.236.66.29.42.3LABReform
12562Altrincham and Sale West Connor Rand74,02569.523.132.413.220.88.71.70.0LABLAB
12561Blackburn Adnan Hussain73,25953.15.814.67.735.77.918.89.5MINReform
13353Burnley Oliver Ryan74,95153.013.719.817.541.26.20.01.6LABReform
13452Hazel Grove Lisa Smart72,84363.114.119.929.929.36.00.00.8LIBLIB
13551Hyndburn Sarah Smith76,12647.815.821.46.942.712.50.00.7LABReform
13650South Ribble Paul Andrew Foster73,42063.622.527.69.932.26.80.00.9LABReform
13749Morecambe and Lunesdale Lizzi Collinge76,42462.922.226.512.929.77.60.01.0LABReform
13749Rossendale and Darwen Andy MacNae74,44059.921.025.27.135.58.52.50.0LABReform
13749Penrith and Solway Markus Campbell-Savours77,93563.222.726.811.830.46.90.01.4LABReform
13749Barrow and Furness Michelle Scrogham74,98056.322.726.98.333.47.40.01.3LABReform
14046Bolton West Phil Brickell74,93359.521.524.89.132.111.20.01.2LABReform
14145Blackpool North and Fleetwood Lorraine Beavers73,33957.020.724.07.239.86.80.01.6LABReform
14145Carlisle Julie Minns77,86359.120.723.79.636.37.90.01.8LABReform
14343Congleton Sarah Alison Russell74,24367.523.025.010.930.57.20.03.5LABReform
14541Cheadle Tom Morrison74,38368.216.815.937.822.05.52.00.2LIBLIB
14640Ribble Valley Maya Ellis80,48464.624.422.513.231.56.30.02.0LABReform
14640Pendle and Clitheroe Jonathan James Hinder78,79659.323.321.18.734.97.20.74.1LABReform
14838Fylde Andrew Snowden77,10062.223.920.69.733.96.40.05.4CONReform
15235Tatton Esther McVey75,97868.331.226.612.521.57.40.00.7CONCON
15531Westmorland and Lonsdale Tim Farron72,02968.814.58.745.325.65.00.00.9LIBLIB
15829Chester South and Eddisbury Aphra Brandreth74,28470.730.523.413.223.77.10.02.2CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.