North West: Majority Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	37.5%	32	18.5%	0	32	-32	0
LAB	47.3%	42	55.8%	30	0	+30	72
LIB	7.9%	1	5.9%	2	0	+2	3
Reform	3.9%	0	13.6%	0	0	+0	0
Green	2.5%	0	5.7%	0	0	+0	0
Other	1.1%	0	0.6%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Liverpool Walton, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Westmorland and Lonsdale, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Altrincham and Sale West (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Workington (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2019	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	MIN %	OTH %	2019 Win	Pred Win
2	564	Liverpool Walton	Dan Carden	62,628	65.1	3.6	81.8	2.0	8.0	4.2	0.0	0.4	LAB	LAB
3	563	Manchester Gorton	Afzal Khan	76,419	58.3	3.2	80.4	2.1	8.2	5.7	0.0	0.4	LAB	LAB
5	561	Liverpool Riverside	Kim Johnson	80,310	65.7	3.1	77.3	3.2	8.7	7.3	0.0	0.4	LAB	LAB
6	560	Bootle	Peter Dowd	74,832	65.7	4.5	78.3	2.5	9.4	4.9	0.0	0.4	LAB	LAB
7	559	Liverpool West Derby	Ian Byrne	65,640	67.0	4.6	78.0	2.4	10.1	4.4	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
11	555	Knowsley	George Howarth	84,082	65.3	4.0	76.6	2.7	10.8	5.4	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
14	552	Manchester Central	Lucy Powell	92,247	56.7	4.4	75.8	2.7	9.9	6.7	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
24	542	Manchester Withington	Jeff Smith	76,530	69.2	5.4	70.8	5.9	10.1	7.5	0.0	0.4	LAB	LAB
25	541	Liverpool Wavertree	Paula Barker	63,458	68.4	4.8	70.1	5.8	11.8	7.0	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
27	539	Chorley	Lindsay Hoyle	78,177	51.0	5.4	70.3	3.2	12.4	7.9	0.0	0.8	LAB	LAB
28	538	Garston and Halewood	Maria Eagle	76,116	70.1	5.9	70.6	5.2	12.5	5.3	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
30	536	Blackley and Broughton	Graham Stringer	73,372	52.6	8.0	71.8	2.2	12.1	5.2	0.0	0.7	LAB	LAB
42	524	Blackburn	Kate Hollern	71,234	62.8	12.1	71.1	1.8	10.9	3.7	0.0	0.5	LAB	LAB
47	519	Halton	Derek Twigg	71,930	64.2	10.3	68.3	3.0	12.6	5.3	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
49	517	Wallasey	Angela Eagle	66,310	70.1	11.4	68.9	3.1	11.1	5.1	0.0	0.5	LAB	LAB
50	516	Preston	Mark Hendrick	59,672	56.6	11.2	68.8	3.1	11.5	4.9	0.0	0.5	LAB	LAB
55	511	Salford and Eccles	Rebecca Long-Bailey	82,202	61.6	10.3	66.4	3.3	12.7	6.7	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
64	502	Birkenhead	Mick Whitley	63,762	66.4	6.0	59.4	4.5	18.0	10.4	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
66	500	Stretford and Urmston	Kate Green	72,372	69.2	14.3	67.1	2.5	10.5	4.8	0.0	0.7	LAB	LAB
69	497	St Helens South and Whiston	Marie Rimmer	79,061	63.6	8.9	61.1	4.6	16.5	8.0	0.0	0.9	LAB	LAB
78	488	Oldham West and Royton	Jim McMahon	72,999	60.9	14.2	64.8	2.5	13.6	4.2	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
87	479	Bolton South East	Yasmin Qureshi	69,163	58.7	14.2	63.4	2.7	14.5	4.4	0.0	0.8	LAB	LAB
91	475	Wythenshawe and Sale East	Mike Kane	76,313	58.7	13.4	61.5	3.5	13.6	7.4	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
94	472	St Helens North	Conor McGinn	75,593	62.9	12.3	59.5	4.1	16.4	6.8	0.0	0.8	LAB	LAB
98	468	Sefton Central	Bill Esterson	69,760	72.9	15.3	62.1	4.1	12.2	5.9	0.0	0.4	LAB	LAB
100	466	Denton and Reddish	Andrew Gwynne	66,234	58.3	14.5	61.0	3.1	14.6	6.2	0.0	0.7	LAB	LAB
109	457	Rochdale	Tony Lloyd	78,909	60.1	15.6	60.8	4.0	14.3	4.8	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
111	455	Stockport	Navendu Mishra	65,391	63.8	12.7	57.8	6.3	14.8	7.7	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
114	452	Ashton under Lyne	Angela Rayner	67,978	56.8	16.0	60.8	2.7	14.5	5.4	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
131	435	Wigan	Lisa Nandy	75,680	59.5	15.7	59.0	3.5	15.6	5.6	0.0	0.7	LAB	LAB
144	422	Makerfield	Yvonne Fovargue	74,190	59.7	16.2	57.3	3.5	16.7	5.4	0.0	0.8	LAB	LAB
149	417	Ellesmere Port and Neston	Justin Madders	70,327	69.3	17.1	57.9	3.8	13.7	6.9	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
150	416	Stalybridge and Hyde	Jonathan Reynolds	73,064	58.0	17.7	58.4	3.2	14.2	5.7	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
155	411	Worsley and Eccles South	Barbara Keeley	75,219	59.4	18.0	58.1	3.4	14.0	5.8	0.0	0.7	LAB	LAB
175	391	Lancashire West	Rosie Cooper	73,347	71.8	21.7	59.9	3.2	10.9	4.0	0.0	0.4	LAB	LAB
178	388	Chester, City of	Chris Matheson	76,057	71.7	20.6	58.2	4.8	11.2	4.5	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
185	381	Warrington North	Charlotte Nichols	72,235	64.6	19.9	56.3	4.0	13.9	5.5	0.0	0.5	LAB	LAB
186	380	Bury South	Christian Wakeford	75,152	66.9	19.5	55.7	3.5	14.8	5.5	0.0	0.9	CON	LAB
189	377	Lancaster and Fleetwood	Cat Smith	70,059	64.5	17.5	53.3	4.6	14.9	9.0	0.0	0.7	LAB	LAB
195	371	Wirral South	Alison McGovern	57,280	76.0	19.7	54.4	4.8	13.4	7.2	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
196	370	Leigh	James Grundy	77,417	60.7	20.4	55.1	3.5	15.8	4.6	0.0	0.8	CON	LAB
201	365	Heywood and Middleton	Chris Clarkson	80,162	59.2	20.5	54.8	3.4	15.3	5.3	0.0	0.6	CON	LAB
214	352	Bury North	James Daly	68,802	68.1	23.3	55.6	3.2	12.7	4.7	0.0	0.6	CON	LAB
216	350	Oldham East and Saddleworth	Debbie Abrahams	72,120	64.0	20.0	52.2	5.6	16.7	4.8	0.0	0.7	LAB	LAB
217	349	Bolton North East	Mark Logan	67,564	64.5	23.4	55.4	3.3	13.0	4.3	0.0	0.6	CON	LAB
218	348	Wirral West	Margaret Greenwood	55,550	77.3	23.0	54.8	4.8	11.9	5.0	0.0	0.4	LAB	LAB
219	347	Weaver Vale	Mike Amesbury	70,551	71.9	21.9	53.7	4.8	13.5	5.7	0.0	0.5	LAB	LAB
226	340	Hyndburn	Sara Britcliffe	70,842	59.9	23.1	53.9	3.3	14.5	4.6	0.0	0.6	CON	LAB
229	337	Blackpool South	Scott Benton	57,690	56.8	23.3	53.8	3.0	14.5	4.8	0.0	0.7	CON	LAB
238	328	Warrington South	Andy Carter	86,015	72.0	22.8	51.4	5.9	14.4	4.9	0.0	0.6	CON	LAB
239	327	Workington	Mark Jenkinson	61,370	67.8	22.5	51.1	4.9	16.1	5.0	0.0	0.4	CON	LAB
250	316	Barrow and Furness	Simon Fell	70,158	65.6	24.3	52.0	4.2	14.1	5.0	0.0	0.5	CON	LAB
251	315	Copeland	Trudy Harrison	61,693	68.9	24.9	52.5	4.0	13.6	4.8	0.0	0.3	CON	LAB
261	305	Burnley	Antony Higginbotham	64,345	60.6	20.1	46.8	6.7	19.8	5.8	0.0	0.9	CON	LAB
272	294	Pendle	Andrew Stephenson	65,289	68.1	25.1	50.3	4.5	15.0	4.5	0.0	0.6	CON	LAB
274	292	Bolton West	Chris Green	73,191	67.4	24.5	49.3	5.0	15.4	5.1	0.0	0.7	CON	LAB
275	291	Carlisle	John Stevenson	65,105	65.9	24.9	49.6	4.9	15.1	4.9	0.0	0.6	CON	LAB
277	289	Morecambe and Lunesdale	David Morris	67,397	67.2	23.9	48.4	5.3	15.5	6.4	0.0	0.6	CON	LAB
289	277	Rossendale and Darwen	Jake Berry	72,770	67.1	26.9	50.2	3.6	13.3	5.4	0.0	0.5	CON	LAB
291	275	Crewe and Nantwich	Kieran Mullan	80,321	67.3	27.2	50.3	3.6	13.2	5.2	0.0	0.5	CON	LAB
307	259	Blackpool North and Cleveleys	Paul Maynard	63,692	60.9	28.6	49.1	3.6	13.4	4.6	0.0	0.6	CON	LAB
321	245	Ribble South	Katherine Fletcher	75,351	71.4	28.8	47.0	5.1	13.5	5.1	0.0	0.4	CON	LAB
324	242	Southport	Damien Moore	70,837	68.0	26.2	43.5	11.2	14.0	4.7	0.0	0.4	CON	LAB
331	235	Altrincham and Sale West	Graham Brady	73,107	74.9	26.5	42.9	7.5	14.6	7.9	0.0	0.6	CON	LAB
339	227	Macclesfield	David Rutley	76,216	70.7	29.4	44.3	5.8	13.5	6.6	0.0	0.4	CON	LAB
380	186	Eddisbury	Edward Timpson	73,700	71.9	31.1	38.4	10.5	14.3	5.3	0.0	0.4	CON	LAB
385	181	Congleton	Fiona Bruce	80,930	70.7	32.3	39.2	7.7	14.7	5.6	0.0	0.5	CON	LAB
389	177	Wyre and Preston North	Ben Wallace	74,775	70.8	33.2	39.7	5.7	14.9	6.1	0.0	0.5	CON	LAB
390	176	Ribble Valley	Nigel Evans	79,247	69.8	33.3	39.6	6.7	14.7	5.3	0.0	0.4	CON	LAB
392	174	Fylde	Mark Menzies	66,847	69.8	32.5	38.6	6.3	16.4	5.5	0.0	0.7	CON	LAB
401	165	Penrith and The Border	Neil Hudson	67,555	70.8	30.0	35.2	11.8	16.4	6.3	0.0	0.3	CON	LAB
402	164	Tatton	Esther McVey	69,018	70.9	30.9	36.1	10.4	15.4	6.6	0.0	0.6	CON	LAB
445	120	Hazel Grove	William Wragg	63,346	69.9	25.9	26.9	27.7	14.1	5.1	0.0	0.4	CON	LIB
448	117	Cheadle	Mary Robinson	74,577	75.0	25.2	25.8	29.5	14.0	5.0	0.0	0.4	CON	LIB
532	33	Westmorland and Lonsdale	Tim Farron	67,789	77.8	23.2	14.4	44.7	13.9	3.7	0.0	0.2	LIB	LIB

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.