North West: Majority Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 36.2%20 19.1%011-119
LAB 54.9%54 34.3%50+559
LIB 5.4%1 14.8%30+34
Brexit 0.0%0 20.7%30+33
Green 1.1%0 7.5%00+00
UKIP 1.9%0 1.5%00+00
Other 0.5%0 2.1%00+00

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Manchester Gorton, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Penrith and The Border, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Westmorland and Lonsdale (prediction: LIB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Makerfield (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Brexit
%
Green
%
UKIP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
4449Manchester Gorton Mohammed Khan75,36261.06.360.615.84.910.31.10.01.1LABLAB
7446Liverpool Walton Dan Carden62,73867.36.455.511.615.87.21.40.02.0LABLAB
11442Liverpool West Derby Stephen Twigg65,16469.37.154.511.915.87.11.40.02.1LABLAB
14439Knowsley George Howarth81,75167.96.752.612.017.67.31.60.02.2LABLAB
16437Liverpool Riverside Louise Ellman76,33262.97.351.417.17.813.41.10.01.9LABLAB
17436Bootle Peter Dowd72,87269.07.951.712.217.17.51.40.02.2LABLAB
21432Liverpool Wavertree Luciana Berger62,41169.98.149.818.911.38.61.20.02.0LABLAB
22431Blackburn Kate Hollern70,65767.215.957.28.710.55.51.10.01.2LABLAB
23430Manchester Central Lucy Powell90,26155.19.550.216.19.711.41.40.01.6LABLAB
30423Blackley and Broughton Graham Stringer71,64856.013.251.710.313.18.51.70.01.5LABLAB
32421Garston and Halewood Maria Eagle75,24871.110.647.814.516.17.51.30.02.2LABLAB
33420Birkenhead Frank Field64,48467.710.747.312.917.67.91.40.02.2LABLAB
35418Manchester Withington Jeff Smith74,55371.97.243.431.65.49.90.90.01.6LABLAB
43410Preston Mark Hendrick57,79161.613.747.412.315.18.21.60.01.6LABLAB
45408Oldham West and Royton Jim McMahon72,41863.215.449.19.716.06.71.60.01.5LABLAB
49404Halton Derek Twigg73,45767.411.943.611.222.07.41.70.02.2LABLAB
51402Wallasey Angela Eagle67,45471.713.043.911.620.17.81.60.02.2LABLAB
55398Stretford and Urmston Kate Green71,84069.915.444.712.416.18.11.40.01.9LABLAB
58395Rochdale Tony Lloyd78,06464.116.545.015.413.36.91.40.01.5LABLAB
59394Bolton South East Yasmin Qureshi68,88661.416.644.99.417.87.81.90.01.6LABLAB
62391St Helens South and Whiston Marie Rimmer79,03666.912.140.013.522.08.31.90.02.3LABLAB
76377Salford and Eccles Rebecca Long-Bailey78,08261.014.340.013.818.89.31.90.02.0LABLAB
93360Stockport Ann Coffey63,42565.515.639.115.517.58.61.50.02.1LABLAB
94359Denton and Reddish Andrew Gwynne65,75160.214.437.911.324.57.82.00.02.1LABLAB
101352St Helens North Conor McGinn76,08866.014.437.112.124.28.11.90.02.3LABLAB
105348Wythenshawe and Sale East Mike Kane76,36160.016.138.514.119.18.31.80.02.2LABLAB
106347Ashton under Lyne Angela Rayner67,67458.816.738.810.022.87.82.00.01.9LABLAB
111342Wigan Lisa Nandy75,35963.114.936.611.025.37.82.10.02.2LABLAB
120333Makerfield Yvonne Fovargue74,25963.216.236.311.525.96.41.50.02.2LABLAB
129324Sefton Central Bill Esterson69,01975.518.037.015.019.27.21.20.02.4LABLAB
136317Oldham East and Saddleworth Debbie Abrahams72,22365.119.637.213.219.57.01.60.01.9LABLAB
155298Ellesmere Port and Neston Justin Madders68,66674.219.235.311.723.07.11.50.02.2LABLAB
156297Stalybridge and Hyde Jonathan Reynolds71,40959.519.335.211.822.08.01.60.02.1LABLAB
161292Leigh Joanne Platt76,21161.517.832.911.027.17.02.00.02.2LABLAB
163290Lancashire West Rosie Cooper73,25874.219.734.711.922.67.51.40.02.3LABLAB
166287Hyndburn Graham Jones73,11061.821.436.19.722.17.11.80.01.8LABLAB
167286Worsley and Eccles South Barbara Keeley73,69261.919.634.311.623.37.41.60.02.1LABLAB
170283Warrington North Helen Jones72,01567.418.533.012.124.87.61.80.02.2LABLAB
171282Burnley Julie Cooper64,71462.315.529.920.023.47.22.00.02.0LABLAB
177276Heywood and Middleton Liz McInnes79,90162.419.632.811.324.87.42.00.02.0LABLAB
179274Wirral South Alison McGovern57,67078.421.234.214.119.87.11.20.02.3LABLAB
184269Bury South Ivan Lewis73,72369.222.735.011.519.67.81.50.01.9LABLAB
185268Bolton North East David Crausby67,23367.223.235.511.219.57.21.60.01.8LABLAB
187266Chester, City of Chris Matheson72,85977.422.034.014.618.97.11.20.02.2LABLAB
190263Lancaster and Fleetwood Cat Smith67,17168.520.832.313.620.88.91.40.02.2LABLAB
193260Bury North James Frith67,58770.924.635.711.718.46.51.20.01.8LABLAB
194259Chorley Lindsay Hoyle76,40472.821.532.611.823.86.81.40.02.2LABLAB
199254Blackpool South Gordon Marsden58,45059.820.230.39.528.67.42.00.02.0LABLAB
202251Wirral West Margaret Greenwood55,99578.523.032.614.219.96.81.20.02.4LABLAB
204249Workington Sue Hayman60,25669.220.630.011.227.17.11.80.02.2LABLAB
210243Pendle Andrew Stephenson64,96369.026.734.39.720.16.31.40.01.6CONLAB
212241Weaver Vale Mike Amesbury69,01673.322.930.413.422.27.41.40.02.3LABLAB
225228Warrington South Faisal Rashid85,75572.323.228.216.421.27.31.40.02.3LABLAB
226227Barrow and Furness John Woodcock69,47468.523.728.211.225.97.31.60.02.2LABLAB
227226Crewe and Nantwich Laura Smith78,89569.723.628.111.526.16.81.70.02.2LABLAB
237215Blackpool North and Cleveleys Paul Maynard63,96764.123.526.59.729.37.01.90.02.1CONBrexit
241212Morecambe and Lunesdale David Morris66,83868.323.826.512.126.27.51.70.02.2CONLAB
242211Bolton West Chris Green72,79770.125.328.112.623.56.91.50.02.1CONLAB
248205Copeland Trudy Harrison61,75169.524.726.611.326.67.01.60.02.2CONLAB
248204Carlisle John Stevenson62,29469.124.226.111.027.77.21.80.02.1CONBrexit
252201Rossendale and Darwen Jake Berry72,49569.226.027.011.724.87.01.50.02.0CONLAB
260192Southport Damien Moore69,40069.118.317.732.121.66.71.40.02.2CONLIB
273180Altrincham and Sale West Graham Brady73,22072.127.723.519.717.67.91.20.02.4CONCON
273179Ribble South Seema Kennedy75,75272.427.122.912.327.16.81.60.02.2CONBrexit
280173Macclesfield David Rutley75,22872.227.121.016.523.18.51.40.02.4CONCON
300152Hazel Grove William Wragg62,68470.421.112.036.121.65.91.20.02.1CONLIB
302151Congleton Fiona Bruce76,69473.328.419.215.625.67.51.50.02.3CONCON
306147Wyre and Preston North Ben Wallace72,31972.830.120.714.224.76.91.30.02.1CONCON
307146Fylde Mark Menzies70,32466.128.719.214.126.97.41.50.02.3CONCON
309144Ribble Valley Nigel Evans77,96870.828.919.214.027.17.11.50.02.2CONCON
312141Eddisbury Antoinette Sandbach70,27273.029.119.314.825.47.51.50.02.3CONCON
321131Cheadle Mary Robinson72,78075.022.811.941.915.35.40.90.01.9CONLIB
345107Westmorland and Lonsdale Tim Farron66,39177.919.76.347.719.34.40.80.01.7LIBLIB
351102Tatton Esther McVey67,87472.430.616.518.822.47.81.40.02.4CONCON
35895Penrith and The Border Rory Stewart65,13971.329.715.215.328.37.61.70.02.2CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.