| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 18.8% | 3 | 15.2% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| LAB | 44.8% | 66 | 23.6% | 0 | 50 | -50 | 16 |
| LIB | 7.8% | 3 | 9.8% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 3 |
| Reform | 16.6% | 0 | 33.1% | 48 | 0 | +48 | 48 |
| Green | 7.0% | 0 | 14.3% | 4 | 0 | +4 | 4 |
| Other | 4.9% | 1 | 4.1% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Manchester Withington' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Blackpool South', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Makerfield (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Liverpool Riverside (prediction: Green).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 386 | Manchester Withington | Jeff Smith | 70,549 | 59.2 | 5.5 | 30.0 | 10.7 | 11.7 | 38.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | LAB | Green |
| 2 | 386 | Liverpool Garston | Maria Eagle | 69,282 | 60.6 | 3.3 | 51.4 | 2.7 | 33.8 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.8 | LAB | LAB |
| 3 | 385 | Chorley | Lindsay Hoyle | 74,575 | 45.5 | 2.9 | 48.8 | 2.5 | 32.1 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 11 | 377 | Liverpool West Derby | Ian Byrne | 69,934 | 54.3 | 2.4 | 48.4 | 1.6 | 37.7 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 12 | 376 | Chester North and Neston | Samantha Dixon | 70,215 | 63.7 | 6.2 | 47.4 | 1.9 | 36.9 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.3 | LAB | LAB |
| 14 | 374 | Liverpool Wavertree | Paula Barker | 70,581 | 56.4 | 6.7 | 29.8 | 9.6 | 20.5 | 28.0 | 4.0 | 1.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 20 | 368 | Sefton Central | Bill Esterson | 74,282 | 63.9 | 5.4 | 47.3 | 2.0 | 38.7 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 22 | 366 | Bootle | Peter Dowd | 73,037 | 53.2 | 3.4 | 45.8 | 2.1 | 37.3 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 0.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 24 | 364 | Stretford and Urmston | Andrew Western | 75,153 | 61.2 | 6.3 | 41.0 | 3.5 | 32.9 | 10.5 | 4.6 | 1.1 | LAB | LAB |
| 26 | 362 | Liverpool Walton | Dan Carden | 69,317 | 53.2 | 2.2 | 47.2 | 1.3 | 39.6 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 0.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 30 | 357 | Manchester Rusholme | Afzal Khan | 72,604 | 40.0 | 5.8 | 22.7 | 6.1 | 16.0 | 41.6 | 5.7 | 2.1 | LAB | Green |
| 38 | 350 | Warrington South | Sarah Edith Hall | 78,399 | 63.4 | 6.3 | 44.9 | 2.5 | 40.1 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 0.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 43 | 345 | Wallasey | Angela Eagle | 74,082 | 57.7 | 3.7 | 44.8 | 1.8 | 40.6 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 0.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 46 | 342 | Altrincham and Sale West | Connor Rand | 74,025 | 69.5 | 22.8 | 26.1 | 13.9 | 22.3 | 12.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 47 | 341 | Macclesfield | Tim Roca | 76,416 | 69.1 | 24.4 | 27.5 | 10.2 | 23.9 | 12.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 52 | 336 | Knowsley | Anneliese Midgley | 72,087 | 50.0 | 2.4 | 45.2 | 1.5 | 42.0 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 0.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 55 | 333 | Wirral West | Matthew Patrick | 72,838 | 68.6 | 19.8 | 27.3 | 13.8 | 24.5 | 11.6 | 2.7 | 0.3 | LAB | LAB |
| 60 | 327 | Liverpool Riverside | Kim Johnson | 71,380 | 45.4 | 5.3 | 26.3 | 6.1 | 24.2 | 32.2 | 5.0 | 1.0 | LAB | Green |
| 65 | 323 | Lancashire West | Ashley Dalton | 74,083 | 59.7 | 5.6 | 43.3 | 2.0 | 42.4 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 0.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 66 | 321 | Tatton | Esther McVey | 75,978 | 68.3 | 30.9 | 24.5 | 10.7 | 24.1 | 8.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | CON | CON |
| 70 | 318 | Ellesmere Port and Bromborough | Justin Madders | 70,799 | 59.3 | 4.1 | 42.9 | 1.9 | 43.2 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 0.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 81 | 307 | Widnes and Halewood | Derek Twigg | 71,233 | 53.5 | 3.2 | 43.0 | 1.4 | 44.8 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 0.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 84 | 304 | Bury South | Christian Wakeford | 75,339 | 56.0 | 7.7 | 38.9 | 2.9 | 41.1 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 84 | 303 | Cheadle | Tom Morrison | 74,383 | 68.2 | 17.9 | 16.0 | 35.6 | 18.4 | 9.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | LIB | LIB |
| 85 | 303 | Runcorn and Helsby | Mike Amesbury | 71,955 | 58.7 | 5.0 | 41.6 | 1.9 | 44.2 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 86 | 301 | Chester South and Eddisbury | Aphra Brandreth | 74,284 | 70.7 | 28.9 | 22.0 | 14.6 | 24.8 | 7.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | CON | CON |
| 89 | 298 | Manchester Central | Lucy Powell | 85,049 | 46.7 | 7.9 | 23.0 | 7.6 | 26.5 | 30.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 | LAB | Green |
| 107 | 281 | Bury North | James Frith | 77,703 | 58.6 | 21.8 | 24.6 | 8.6 | 30.4 | 11.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 112 | 276 | Morecambe and Lunesdale | Lizzi Collinge | 76,424 | 62.9 | 23.2 | 23.7 | 12.1 | 29.8 | 9.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 113 | 275 | Stockport | Navendu Mishra | 76,625 | 57.0 | 11.4 | 24.3 | 9.1 | 30.5 | 21.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 115 | 273 | Salford | Rebecca Long-Bailey | 83,633 | 47.5 | 8.3 | 24.1 | 6.8 | 30.4 | 26.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 125 | 263 | Cheshire Mid | Andrew Graham Cooper | 70,384 | 59.0 | 12.1 | 32.5 | 5.4 | 39.3 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 130 | 258 | Penrith and Solway | Markus Campbell-Savours | 77,935 | 63.2 | 23.3 | 23.6 | 11.2 | 30.9 | 9.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 132 | 256 | St Helens South and Whiston | Marie Rimmer | 71,569 | 53.1 | 4.9 | 36.2 | 3.5 | 44.0 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 133 | 255 | Southport | Patrick Brian Hurley | 73,641 | 61.2 | 17.8 | 24.6 | 13.7 | 32.4 | 8.3 | 2.5 | 0.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 142 | 246 | Lancaster and Wyre | Cat Smith | 74,760 | 57.5 | 19.2 | 20.5 | 9.4 | 28.9 | 17.9 | 3.7 | 0.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 143 | 245 | Wythenshawe and Sale East | Mike Kane | 77,765 | 50.3 | 11.5 | 24.8 | 6.8 | 33.3 | 20.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 144 | 244 | South Ribble | Paul Andrew Foster | 73,420 | 63.6 | 21.7 | 24.2 | 10.4 | 32.7 | 9.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 145 | 242 | Hazel Grove | Lisa Smart | 72,843 | 63.1 | 13.7 | 17.8 | 30.4 | 26.4 | 8.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | LIB | LIB |
| 150 | 238 | Congleton | Sarah Alison Russell | 74,243 | 67.5 | 22.6 | 22.4 | 11.7 | 31.3 | 8.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 154 | 234 | Gorton and Denton | Andrew Gwynne | 78,125 | 46.8 | 9.1 | 22.6 | 6.5 | 32.0 | 23.3 | 5.3 | 1.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 155 | 233 | Birkenhead | Alison McGovern | 78,091 | 55.2 | 9.5 | 22.3 | 8.0 | 31.7 | 23.6 | 4.0 | 0.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 158 | 230 | Whitehaven and Workington | Josh MacAlister | 73,198 | 57.2 | 5.4 | 38.9 | 1.4 | 48.5 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 0.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 159 | 229 | Crewe and Nantwich | Connor Naismith | 78,423 | 60.2 | 12.2 | 31.1 | 5.5 | 40.8 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 161 | 227 | Bolton West | Phil Brickell | 74,933 | 59.5 | 23.4 | 22.0 | 8.7 | 31.8 | 12.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 190 | 198 | Worsley and Eccles | Michael Wheeler | 78,643 | 54.1 | 8.6 | 30.6 | 4.3 | 43.5 | 9.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 195 | 193 | Ribble Valley | Maya Ellis | 80,484 | 64.6 | 23.2 | 20.3 | 12.9 | 33.4 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 197 | 191 | Warrington North | Charlotte Nichols | 70,601 | 56.7 | 4.7 | 37.0 | 1.7 | 50.2 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 199 | 189 | Preston | Mark Hendrick | 77,400 | 51.7 | 10.8 | 20.9 | 8.4 | 34.6 | 13.0 | 10.4 | 2.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 201 | 187 | Rossendale and Darwen | Andy MacNae | 74,440 | 59.9 | 21.8 | 21.7 | 7.1 | 35.5 | 11.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 204 | 184 | Carlisle | Julie Minns | 77,863 | 59.1 | 22.2 | 21.3 | 9.0 | 35.5 | 9.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 212 | 176 | St Helens North | David Baines | 75,483 | 53.6 | 7.0 | 31.5 | 3.6 | 46.1 | 8.8 | 2.5 | 0.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 219 | 168 | Westmorland and Lonsdale | Tim Farron | 72,029 | 68.8 | 15.6 | 8.1 | 43.0 | 23.5 | 7.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | LIB | LIB |
| 220 | 168 | Bolton North East | Kirith Entwistle | 80,011 | 54.2 | 16.2 | 20.2 | 9.5 | 35.6 | 12.7 | 4.8 | 1.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 227 | 161 | Wigan | Lisa Nandy | 77,537 | 52.7 | 3.7 | 35.8 | 1.7 | 51.5 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 230 | 158 | Blackburn | Adnan Hussain | 73,259 | 53.1 | 10.9 | 16.2 | 8.2 | 32.0 | 12.0 | 5.9 | 14.8 | MIN | Reform |
| 236 | 152 | Barrow and Furness | Michelle Scrogham | 74,980 | 56.3 | 19.6 | 22.5 | 7.4 | 38.6 | 8.7 | 2.7 | 0.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 238 | 150 | Rochdale | Paul Waugh | 71,264 | 55.7 | 10.6 | 18.1 | 8.8 | 34.4 | 12.9 | 13.7 | 1.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 247 | 141 | Pendle and Clitheroe | Jonathan James Hinder | 78,796 | 59.3 | 23.5 | 19.4 | 9.7 | 36.4 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 1.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 250 | 138 | Blackley and Middleton South | Graham Stringer | 72,097 | 43.5 | 9.0 | 22.7 | 5.8 | 39.8 | 18.6 | 3.5 | 0.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 252 | 136 | Burnley | Oliver Ryan | 74,951 | 53.0 | 16.5 | 17.2 | 16.5 | 34.6 | 10.8 | 3.5 | 0.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 260 | 128 | Blackpool North and Fleetwood | Lorraine Beavers | 73,339 | 57.0 | 21.9 | 20.8 | 7.2 | 38.9 | 9.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 271 | 117 | Oldham East and Saddleworth | Debbie Abrahams | 72,760 | 55.1 | 15.4 | 18.6 | 10.8 | 37.8 | 10.1 | 5.6 | 1.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 272 | 116 | Stalybridge and Hyde | Jonathan Reynolds | 72,265 | 51.5 | 12.7 | 22.7 | 5.9 | 42.0 | 12.9 | 2.6 | 1.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 278 | 110 | Hyndburn | Sarah Smith | 76,126 | 47.8 | 20.7 | 17.2 | 7.2 | 37.1 | 14.5 | 2.8 | 0.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 298 | 90 | Fylde | Andrew Snowden | 77,100 | 62.2 | 30.7 | 14.9 | 9.1 | 36.4 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 1.4 | CON | Reform |
| 307 | 81 | Leigh and Atherton | Jo Platt | 79,761 | 51.6 | 5.9 | 31.2 | 2.0 | 53.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 308 | 80 | Ashton-under-Lyne | Angela Rayner | 71,002 | 49.9 | 9.4 | 22.9 | 4.9 | 45.5 | 12.5 | 3.9 | 0.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 315 | 73 | Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton | Jim McMahon | 73,178 | 52.7 | 11.3 | 15.6 | 5.1 | 38.8 | 12.8 | 16.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 316 | 72 | Heywood and Middleton North | Elsie Jane Blundell | 74,786 | 49.6 | 11.3 | 23.1 | 6.9 | 46.2 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 1.6 | LAB | Reform |
| 324 | 64 | Bolton South and Walkden | Yasmin Qureshi | 79,622 | 46.4 | 10.9 | 18.5 | 6.0 | 42.5 | 15.2 | 5.5 | 1.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 327 | 61 | Makerfield | Josh Simons | 76,845 | 52.4 | 4.1 | 31.7 | 1.8 | 56.1 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 367 | 21 | Blackpool South | Chris Webb | 77,459 | 45.4 | 11.2 | 20.5 | 5.1 | 50.4 | 9.7 | 2.6 | 0.5 | LAB | Reform |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.