North West: Majority Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party	2017 Votes	2017 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	36.2%	20	19.1%	0	11	-11	9
LAB	54.9%	54	34.3%	5	0	+5	59
LIB	5.4%	1	14.8%	3	0	+3	4
Brexit	0.0%	0	20.7%	3	0	+3	3
Green	1.1%	0	7.5%	0	0	+0	0
UKIP	1.9%	0	1.5%	0	0	+0	0
Other	0.5%	0	2.1%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Manchester Gorton, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Penrith and The Border, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Westmorland and Lonsdale (prediction: LIB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Makerfield (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2017	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Brexit %	Green %	UKIP %	MIN %	OTH %	2017 Win	Pred Win
4	449	Manchester Gorton	Mohammed Khan	75,362	61.0	6.3	60.6	15.8	4.9	10.3	1.1	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
7	446	Liverpool Walton	Dan Carden	62,738	67.3	6.4	55.5	11.6	15.8	7.2	1.4	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
11	442	Liverpool West Derby	Stephen Twigg	65,164	69.3	7.1	54.5	11.9	15.8	7.1	1.4	0.0	2.1	LAB	LAB
14	439	Knowsley	George Howarth	81,751	67.9	6.7	52.6	12.0	17.6	7.3	1.6	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
16	437	Liverpool Riverside	Louise Ellman	76,332	62.9	7.3	51.4	17.1	7.8	13.4	1.1	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
17	436	Bootle	Peter Dowd	72,872	69.0	7.9	51.7	12.2	17.1	7.5	1.4	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
21	432	Liverpool Wavertree	Luciana Berger	62,411	69.9	8.1	49.8	18.9	11.3	8.6	1.2	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
22	431	Blackburn	Kate Hollern	70,657	67.2	15.9	57.2	8.7	10.5	5.5	1.1	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
23	430	Manchester Central	Lucy Powell	90,261	55.1	9.5	50.2	16.1	9.7	11.4	1.4	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
30	423	Blackley and Broughton	Graham Stringer	71,648	56.0	13.2	51.7	10.3	13.1	8.5	1.7	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
32	421	Garston and Halewood	Maria Eagle	75,248	71.1	10.6	47.8	14.5	16.1	7.5	1.3	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
33	420	Birkenhead	Frank Field	64,484	67.7	10.7	47.3	12.9	17.6	7.9	1.4	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
35	418	Manchester Withington	Jeff Smith	74,553	71.9	7.2	43.4	31.6	5.4	9.9	0.9	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
43	410	Preston	Mark Hendrick	57,791	61.6	13.7	47.4	12.3	15.1	8.2	1.6	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
45	408	Oldham West and Royton	Jim McMahon	72,418	63.2	15.4	49.1	9.7	16.0	6.7	1.6	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
49	404	Halton	Derek Twigg	73,457	67.4	11.9	43.6	11.2	22.0	7.4	1.7	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
51	402	Wallasey	Angela Eagle	67,454	71.7	13.0	43.9	11.6	20.1	7.8	1.6	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
55	398	Stretford and Urmston	Kate Green	71,840	69.9	15.4	44.7	12.4	16.1	8.1	1.4	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
58	395	Rochdale	Tony Lloyd	78,064	64.1	16.5	45.0	15.4	13.3	6.9	1.4	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
59	394	Bolton South East	Yasmin Qureshi	68,886	61.4	16.6	44.9	9.4	17.8	7.8	1.9	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
62	391	St Helens South and Whiston	Marie Rimmer	79,036	66.9	12.1	40.0	13.5	22.0	8.3	1.9	0.0	2.3	LAB	LAB
76	377	Salford and Eccles	Rebecca Long-Bailey	78,082	61.0	14.3	40.0	13.8	18.8	9.3	1.9	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
93	360	Stockport	Ann Coffey	63,425	65.5	15.6	39.1	15.5	17.5	8.6	1.5	0.0	2.1	LAB	LAB
94	359	Denton and Reddish	Andrew Gwynne	65,751	60.2	14.4	37.9	11.3	24.5	7.8	2.0	0.0	2.1	LAB	LAB
101	352	St Helens North	Conor McGinn	76,088	66.0	14.4	37.1	12.1	24.2	8.1	1.9	0.0	2.3	LAB	LAB
105	348	Wythenshawe and Sale East	Mike Kane	76,361	60.0	16.1	38.5	14.1	19.1	8.3	1.8	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
106	347	Ashton under Lyne	Angela Rayner	67,674	58.8	16.7	38.8	10.0	22.8	7.8	2.0	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
111	342	Wigan	Lisa Nandy	75,359	63.1	14.9	36.6	11.0	25.3	7.8	2.1	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
120	333	Makerfield	Yvonne Fovargue	74,259	63.2	16.2	36.3	11.5	25.9	6.4	1.5	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
129	324	Sefton Central	Bill Esterson	69,019	75.5	18.0	37.0	15.0	19.2	7.2	1.2	0.0	2.4	LAB	LAB
136	317	Oldham East and Saddleworth	Debbie Abrahams	72,223	65.1	19.6	37.2	13.2	19.5	7.0	1.6	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
155	298	Ellesmere Port and Neston	Justin Madders	68,666	74.2	19.2	35.3	11.7	23.0	7.1	1.5	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
156	297	Stalybridge and Hyde	Jonathan Reynolds	71,409	59.5	19.3	35.2	11.8	22.0	8.0	1.6	0.0	2.1	LAB	LAB
161	292	Leigh	Joanne Platt	76,211	61.5	17.8	32.9	11.0	27.1	7.0	2.0	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
163	290	Lancashire West	Rosie Cooper	73,258	74.2	19.7	34.7	11.9	22.6	7.5	1.4	0.0	2.3	LAB	LAB
166	287	Hyndburn	Graham Jones	73,110	61.8	21.4	36.1	9.7	22.1	7.1	1.8	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
167	286	Worsley and Eccles South	Barbara Keeley	73,692	61.9	19.6	34.3	11.6	23.3	7.4	1.6	0.0	2.1	LAB	LAB
170	283	Warrington North	Helen Jones	72,015	67.4	18.5	33.0	12.1	24.8	7.6	1.8	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
171	282	Burnley	Julie Cooper	64,714	62.3	15.5	29.9	20.0	23.4	7.2	2.0	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
177	276	Heywood and Middleton	Liz McInnes	79,901	62.4	19.6	32.8	11.3	24.8	7.4	2.0	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
179	274	Wirral South	Alison McGovern	57,670	78.4	21.2	34.2	14.1	19.8	7.1	1.2	0.0	2.3	LAB	LAB
184	269	Bury South	Ivan Lewis	73,723	69.2	22.7	35.0	11.5	19.6	7.8	1.5	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
185	268	Bolton North East	David Crausby	67,233	67.2	23.2	35.5	11.2	19.5	7.2	1.6	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
187	266	Chester, City of	Chris Matheson	72,859	77.4	22.0	34.0	14.6	18.9	7.1	1.2	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
190	263	Lancaster and Fleetwood	Cat Smith	67,171	68.5	20.8	32.3	13.6	20.8	8.9	1.4	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
193	260	Bury North	James Frith	67,587	70.9	24.6	35.7	11.7	18.4	6.5	1.2	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
194	259	Chorley	Lindsay Hoyle	76,404	72.8	21.5	32.6	11.8	23.8	6.8	1.4	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
199	254	Blackpool South	Gordon Marsden	58,450	59.8	20.2	30.3	9.5	28.6	7.4	2.0	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
202	251	Wirral West	Margaret Greenwood	55,995	78.5	23.0	32.6	14.2	19.9	6.8	1.2	0.0	2.4	LAB	LAB
204	249	Workington	Sue Hayman	60,256	69.2	20.6	30.0	11.2	27.1	7.1	1.8	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
210	243	Pendle	Andrew Stephenson	64,963	69.0	26.7	34.3	9.7	20.1	6.3	1.4	0.0	1.6	CON	LAB
212	241	Weaver Vale	Mike Amesbury	69,016	73.3	22.9	30.4	13.4	22.2	7.4	1.4	0.0	2.3	LAB	LAB
225	228	Warrington South	Faisal Rashid	85,755	72.3	23.2	28.2	16.4	21.2	7.3	1.4	0.0	2.3	LAB	LAB
226	227	Barrow and Furness	John Woodcock	69,474	68.5	23.7	28.2	11.2	25.9	7.3	1.6	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
227	226	Crewe and Nantwich	Laura Smith	78,895	69.7	23.6	28.1	11.5	26.1	6.8	1.7	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
237	215	Blackpool North and Cleveleys	Paul Maynard	63,967	64.1	23.5	26.5	9.7	29.3	7.0	1.9	0.0	2.1	CON	Brexit
241	212	Morecambe and Lunesdale	David Morris	66,838	68.3	23.8	26.5	12.1	26.2	7.5	1.7	0.0	2.2	CON	LAB
242	211	Bolton West	Chris Green	72,797	70.1	25.3	28.1	12.6	23.5	6.9	1.5	0.0	2.1	CON	LAB
248	205	Copeland	Trudy Harrison	61,751	69.5	24.7	26.6	11.3	26.6	7.0	1.6	0.0	2.2	CON	LAB
248	204	Carlisle	John Stevenson	62,294	69.1	24.2	26.1	11.0	27.7	7.2	1.8	0.0	2.1	CON	Brexit
252	201	Rossendale and Darwen	Jake Berry	72,495	69.2	26.0	27.0	11.7	24.8	7.0	1.5	0.0	2.0	CON	LAB
260	192	Southport	Damien Moore	69,400	69.1	18.3	17.7	32.1	21.6	6.7	1.4	0.0	2.2	CON	LIB
273	180	Altrincham and Sale West	Graham Brady	73,220	72.1	27.7	23.5	19.7	17.6	7.9	1.2	0.0	2.4	CON	CON
273	179	Ribble South	Seema Kennedy	75,752	72.4	27.1	22.9	12.3	27.1	6.8	1.6	0.0	2.2	CON	Brexit
280	173	Macclesfield	David Rutley	75,228	72.2	27.1	21.0	16.5	23.1	8.5	1.4	0.0	2.4	CON	CON
300	152	Hazel Grove	William Wragg	62,684	70.4	21.1	12.0	36.1	21.6	5.9	1.2	0.0	2.1	CON	LIB
302	151	Congleton	Fiona Bruce	76,694	73.3	28.4	19.2	15.6	25.6	7.5	1.5	0.0	2.3	CON	CON
306	147	Wyre and Preston North	Ben Wallace	72,319	72.8	30.1	20.7	14.2	24.7	6.9	1.3	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
307	146	Fylde	Mark Menzies	70,324	66.1	28.7	19.2	14.1	26.9	7.4	1.5	0.0	2.3	CON	CON
309	144	Ribble Valley	Nigel Evans	77,968	70.8	28.9	19.2	14.0	27.1	7.1	1.5	0.0	2.2	CON	CON
312	141	Eddisbury	Antoinette Sandbach	70,272	73.0	29.1	19.3	14.8	25.4	7.5	1.5	0.0	2.3	CON	CON
321	131	Cheadle	Mary Robinson	72,780	75.0	22.8	11.9	41.9	15.3	5.4	0.9	0.0	1.9	CON	LIB
345	107	Westmorland and Lonsdale	Tim Farron	66,391	77.9	19.7	6.3	47.7	19.3	4.4	0.8	0.0	1.7	LIB	LIB
351	102	Tatton	Esther McVey	67,874	72.4	30.6	16.5	18.8	22.4	7.8	1.4	0.0	2.4	CON	CON
358	95	Penrith and The Border	Rory Stewart	65,139	71.3	29.7	15.2	15.3	28.3	7.6	1.7	0.0	2.2	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.