| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 18.8% | 3 | 13.8% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| LAB | 44.8% | 66 | 22.8% | 0 | 43 | -43 | 23 |
| LIB | 7.8% | 3 | 10.9% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 3 |
| Reform | 16.6% | 0 | 32.1% | 42 | 0 | +42 | 42 |
| Green | 7.0% | 0 | 13.4% | 2 | 0 | +2 | 2 |
| Other | 4.9% | 1 | 7.1% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Manchester Withington' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Hazel Grove', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Heywood and Middleton North (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Blackley and Middleton South (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 422 | Manchester Withington | Jeff Smith | 70,549 | 59.2 | 6.5 | 31.5 | 12.4 | 9.7 | 27.3 | 12.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 27 | 406 | Liverpool West Derby | Ian Byrne | 69,934 | 54.3 | 2.7 | 48.8 | 2.2 | 32.6 | 4.6 | 9.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 28 | 405 | Bootle | Peter Dowd | 73,037 | 53.2 | 2.4 | 48.9 | 2.1 | 32.9 | 4.7 | 9.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 33 | 399 | Manchester Rusholme | Afzal Khan | 72,604 | 40.0 | 7.7 | 25.6 | 7.3 | 11.1 | 33.5 | 14.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Green |
| 37 | 396 | Liverpool Walton | Dan Carden | 69,317 | 53.2 | 2.4 | 48.1 | 2.0 | 34.6 | 4.2 | 8.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 41 | 392 | Sefton Central | Bill Esterson | 74,282 | 63.9 | 5.1 | 47.9 | 2.5 | 35.0 | 3.7 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 42 | 391 | Liverpool Wavertree | Paula Barker | 70,581 | 56.4 | 7.0 | 30.5 | 9.8 | 17.6 | 24.7 | 10.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 43 | 390 | Chorley | Lindsay Hoyle | 74,575 | 45.5 | 6.1 | 37.5 | 7.3 | 24.9 | 15.8 | 8.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 51 | 382 | Liverpool Garston | Maria Eagle | 69,282 | 60.6 | 8.7 | 34.2 | 10.2 | 23.3 | 15.0 | 8.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 52 | 381 | Chester North and Neston | Samantha Dixon | 70,215 | 63.7 | 5.3 | 46.4 | 2.6 | 35.6 | 3.8 | 6.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 60 | 373 | Liverpool Riverside | Kim Johnson | 71,380 | 45.4 | 6.0 | 29.2 | 7.9 | 20.4 | 23.3 | 13.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 63 | 370 | Knowsley | Anneliese Midgley | 72,087 | 50.0 | 2.5 | 45.5 | 2.0 | 37.2 | 4.4 | 8.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 67 | 366 | Wallasey | Angela Eagle | 74,082 | 57.7 | 3.9 | 44.3 | 2.1 | 37.3 | 4.6 | 7.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 68 | 365 | Stretford and Urmston | Andrew Western | 75,153 | 61.2 | 9.4 | 34.2 | 6.8 | 27.3 | 13.7 | 8.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 80 | 353 | Warrington South | Sarah Edith Hall | 78,399 | 63.4 | 5.3 | 44.4 | 3.1 | 39.6 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 88 | 345 | Widnes and Halewood | Derek Twigg | 71,233 | 53.5 | 3.3 | 43.7 | 2.1 | 40.2 | 3.6 | 7.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 91 | 342 | Wirral West | Matthew Patrick | 72,838 | 68.6 | 12.2 | 35.9 | 7.4 | 32.8 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 93 | 339 | Manchester Central | Lucy Powell | 85,049 | 46.7 | 7.6 | 24.5 | 8.6 | 21.5 | 25.5 | 12.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Green |
| 94 | 339 | Ellesmere Port and Bromborough | Justin Madders | 70,799 | 59.3 | 3.8 | 42.8 | 2.2 | 40.2 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 98 | 335 | Lancashire West | Ashley Dalton | 74,083 | 59.7 | 4.8 | 43.0 | 2.6 | 41.0 | 3.3 | 5.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 99 | 334 | Wythenshawe and Sale East | Mike Kane | 77,765 | 50.3 | 5.7 | 37.5 | 3.8 | 35.6 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 102 | 331 | Bury South | Christian Wakeford | 75,339 | 56.0 | 5.2 | 41.4 | 2.5 | 40.4 | 3.8 | 6.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 103 | 330 | Gorton and Denton | Andrew Gwynne | 78,125 | 46.8 | 9.6 | 24.1 | 8.2 | 23.1 | 24.0 | 11.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 104 | 329 | Stockport | Navendu Mishra | 76,625 | 57.0 | 9.1 | 28.4 | 8.9 | 27.6 | 16.5 | 9.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 107 | 326 | Blackley and Middleton South | Graham Stringer | 72,097 | 43.5 | 4.0 | 39.1 | 2.7 | 39.0 | 6.9 | 8.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 115 | 318 | Runcorn and Helsby | Mike Amesbury | 71,955 | 58.7 | 4.8 | 40.8 | 2.2 | 42.0 | 3.7 | 6.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 123 | 310 | Salford | Rebecca Long-Bailey | 83,633 | 47.5 | 7.6 | 25.7 | 8.2 | 27.4 | 20.1 | 10.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 125 | 308 | Altrincham and Sale West | Connor Rand | 74,025 | 69.5 | 21.2 | 22.6 | 13.4 | 24.5 | 12.6 | 5.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 137 | 296 | Macclesfield | Tim Roca | 76,416 | 69.1 | 21.1 | 23.9 | 10.4 | 27.8 | 10.5 | 6.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 143 | 289 | Tatton | Esther McVey | 75,978 | 68.3 | 26.8 | 20.6 | 13.8 | 25.4 | 10.3 | 3.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 144 | 289 | Cheshire Mid | Andrew Graham Cooper | 70,384 | 59.0 | 5.3 | 39.6 | 2.8 | 44.4 | 2.9 | 5.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 150 | 283 | Whitehaven and Workington | Josh MacAlister | 73,198 | 57.2 | 4.4 | 40.1 | 2.2 | 46.4 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 151 | 282 | St Helens North | David Baines | 75,483 | 53.6 | 4.2 | 37.6 | 2.5 | 44.0 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 153 | 280 | Birkenhead | Alison McGovern | 78,091 | 55.2 | 7.7 | 22.3 | 8.0 | 29.1 | 24.1 | 8.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 154 | 279 | Southport | Patrick Brian Hurley | 73,641 | 61.2 | 10.4 | 31.4 | 9.9 | 38.3 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 160 | 273 | Worsley and Eccles | Michael Wheeler | 78,643 | 54.1 | 5.9 | 35.4 | 3.0 | 43.2 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 168 | 265 | Lancaster and Wyre | Cat Smith | 74,760 | 57.5 | 11.6 | 27.2 | 7.0 | 35.6 | 13.1 | 5.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 170 | 263 | Crewe and Nantwich | Connor Naismith | 78,423 | 60.2 | 6.3 | 36.7 | 3.4 | 45.3 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 175 | 258 | St Helens South and Whiston | Marie Rimmer | 71,569 | 53.1 | 6.6 | 29.9 | 6.5 | 38.9 | 10.7 | 7.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 177 | 255 | Blackburn | Adnan Hussain | 73,259 | 53.1 | 9.5 | 13.1 | 3.9 | 22.4 | 14.5 | 36.6 | 0.0 | MIN | MIN |
| 179 | 254 | Warrington North | Charlotte Nichols | 70,601 | 56.7 | 4.4 | 37.3 | 2.2 | 46.7 | 3.2 | 6.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 190 | 243 | Wigan | Lisa Nandy | 77,537 | 52.7 | 3.7 | 36.8 | 2.2 | 47.2 | 3.6 | 6.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 201 | 231 | Cheadle | Tom Morrison | 74,383 | 68.2 | 11.8 | 12.0 | 41.1 | 23.6 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 203 | 230 | Preston | Mark Hendrick | 77,400 | 51.7 | 12.4 | 18.7 | 10.7 | 30.5 | 16.9 | 10.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 208 | 225 | Morecambe and Lunesdale | Lizzi Collinge | 76,424 | 62.9 | 18.8 | 20.7 | 13.2 | 33.4 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 209 | 224 | Bury North | James Frith | 77,703 | 58.6 | 19.8 | 20.6 | 9.2 | 33.4 | 11.1 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 211 | 222 | Bolton West | Phil Brickell | 74,933 | 59.5 | 20.0 | 19.1 | 8.8 | 32.6 | 13.8 | 5.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 212 | 221 | Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton | Jim McMahon | 73,178 | 52.7 | 9.4 | 16.9 | 4.7 | 30.5 | 13.2 | 25.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 217 | 216 | Rochdale | Paul Waugh | 71,264 | 55.7 | 11.4 | 17.4 | 9.8 | 31.2 | 15.3 | 14.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 233 | 200 | Leigh and Atherton | Jo Platt | 79,761 | 51.6 | 4.2 | 35.1 | 1.8 | 49.8 | 3.1 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 236 | 197 | Penrith and Solway | Markus Campbell-Savours | 77,935 | 63.2 | 19.3 | 20.1 | 12.0 | 35.1 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 243 | 190 | Congleton | Sarah Alison Russell | 74,243 | 67.5 | 20.7 | 19.0 | 12.0 | 34.5 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 245 | 188 | Oldham East and Saddleworth | Debbie Abrahams | 72,760 | 55.1 | 15.6 | 17.9 | 11.3 | 33.6 | 15.0 | 6.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 257 | 176 | Bolton South and Walkden | Yasmin Qureshi | 79,622 | 46.4 | 11.1 | 19.0 | 8.1 | 35.4 | 17.8 | 8.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 260 | 173 | Ashton-under-Lyne | Angela Rayner | 71,002 | 49.9 | 9.6 | 23.1 | 6.7 | 39.8 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 262 | 171 | Stalybridge and Hyde | Jonathan Reynolds | 72,265 | 51.5 | 12.6 | 22.2 | 6.6 | 38.9 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 266 | 167 | Ribble Valley | Maya Ellis | 80,484 | 64.6 | 21.8 | 17.9 | 13.2 | 35.0 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 269 | 164 | Makerfield | Josh Simons | 76,845 | 52.4 | 3.4 | 34.4 | 2.1 | 51.7 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 277 | 156 | South Ribble | Paul Andrew Foster | 73,420 | 63.6 | 18.8 | 20.1 | 10.4 | 38.0 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 278 | 155 | Bolton North East | Kirith Entwistle | 80,011 | 54.2 | 14.6 | 19.2 | 8.9 | 37.2 | 14.8 | 5.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 281 | 152 | Burnley | Oliver Ryan | 74,951 | 53.0 | 12.5 | 18.0 | 16.8 | 36.3 | 11.1 | 5.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 288 | 145 | Barrow and Furness | Michelle Scrogham | 74,980 | 56.3 | 17.9 | 20.2 | 9.6 | 39.5 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 306 | 127 | Pendle and Clitheroe | Jonathan James Hinder | 78,796 | 59.3 | 24.6 | 15.4 | 9.4 | 36.1 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 306 | 126 | Chester South and Eddisbury | Aphra Brandreth | 74,284 | 70.7 | 40.8 | 10.6 | 8.4 | 31.4 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 312 | 121 | Rossendale and Darwen | Andy MacNae | 74,440 | 59.9 | 17.8 | 18.9 | 8.0 | 40.2 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 315 | 118 | Carlisle | Julie Minns | 77,863 | 59.1 | 17.7 | 18.3 | 10.0 | 39.8 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 331 | 102 | Heywood and Middleton North | Elsie Jane Blundell | 74,786 | 49.6 | 13.2 | 19.7 | 8.6 | 42.4 | 10.0 | 6.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 337 | 96 | Blackpool South | Chris Webb | 77,459 | 45.4 | 7.7 | 26.7 | 4.0 | 49.9 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 365 | 68 | Hyndburn | Sarah Smith | 76,126 | 47.8 | 17.4 | 14.5 | 7.5 | 40.4 | 14.8 | 5.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 367 | 65 | Westmorland and Lonsdale | Tim Farron | 72,029 | 68.8 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 53.1 | 29.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 384 | 49 | Fylde | Andrew Snowden | 77,100 | 62.2 | 32.4 | 10.6 | 7.0 | 38.4 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 387 | 46 | Blackpool North and Fleetwood | Lorraine Beavers | 73,339 | 57.0 | 17.9 | 17.0 | 8.1 | 45.3 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 406 | 26 | Hazel Grove | Lisa Smart | 72,843 | 63.1 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 51.2 | 35.7 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.