North West: Majority Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 36.2%20 36.4%50+525
LAB 54.9%54 43.7%05-549
LIB 5.4%1 9.5%00+01
Brexit 0.0%0 5.7%00+00
Green 1.1%0 3.0%00+00
UKIP 1.9%0 0.0%00+00
Other 0.5%0 1.6%00+00

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Chorley, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Penrith and The Border, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Blackpool North and Cleveleys (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Crewe and Nantwich (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Brexit
%
Green
%
NAT
%
UKIP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
1568Chorley Lindsay Hoyle76,40472.80.098.20.00.01.60.00.00.00.3LABLAB
3566Manchester Gorton Mohammed Khan75,36261.012.267.77.75.56.80.00.00.00.0LABLAB
8561Liverpool Riverside Louise Ellman76,33262.913.964.39.74.08.10.00.00.00.0LABLAB
14555Manchester Withington Jeff Smith74,55371.913.259.118.83.55.50.00.00.00.0LABLAB
19550Liverpool West Derby Stephen Twigg65,16469.317.461.27.47.93.30.00.00.02.8LABLAB
20549Liverpool Wavertree Luciana Berger62,41169.916.860.511.05.44.30.00.00.02.0LABLAB
21548Knowsley George Howarth81,75167.917.761.37.58.23.20.00.00.02.1LABLAB
23546Manchester Central Lucy Powell90,26155.117.360.98.06.06.10.00.00.01.7LABLAB
27542Bootle Peter Dowd72,87269.019.361.18.57.63.50.00.00.00.0LABLAB
34535Blackburn Kate Hollern70,65767.224.561.13.57.12.30.00.00.01.6LABLAB
38531Garston and Halewood Maria Eagle75,24871.121.757.28.96.73.40.00.00.02.0LABLAB
40529Birkenhead Frank Field64,48467.722.056.97.87.44.00.00.00.02.0LABLAB
45524Liverpool Walton Dan Carden62,73867.328.260.07.50.02.80.00.00.01.5LABLAB
47522Blackley and Broughton Graham Stringer71,64856.025.155.66.98.44.00.00.00.00.0LABLAB
53516Preston Mark Hendrick57,79161.625.454.97.09.03.70.00.00.00.0LABLAB
60509Wallasey Angela Eagle67,45471.726.154.18.08.53.30.00.00.00.0LABLAB
65504Halton Derek Twigg73,45767.426.353.37.79.82.90.00.00.00.0LABLAB
66503Oldham West and Royton Jim McMahon72,41863.227.554.04.49.33.00.00.00.01.8LABLAB
68501Stretford and Urmston Kate Green71,84069.927.353.67.87.63.70.00.00.00.0LABLAB
75494Rochdale Tony Lloyd78,06464.127.852.38.08.93.00.00.00.00.0LABLAB
77492St Helens South and Whiston Marie Rimmer79,03666.926.750.49.39.54.10.00.00.00.0LABLAB
82487Salford and Eccles Rebecca Long-Bailey78,08261.027.450.48.99.14.20.00.00.00.0LABLAB
90479Stockport Ann Coffey63,42565.528.050.29.78.23.90.00.00.00.0LABLAB
98471Bolton South East Yasmin Qureshi68,88661.430.050.45.410.73.50.00.00.00.0LABLAB
107462Wythenshawe and Sale East Mike Kane76,36160.029.048.18.18.93.70.00.00.02.1LABLAB
122447St Helens North Conor McGinn76,08866.030.147.58.410.13.80.00.00.00.0LABLAB
126443Denton and Reddish Andrew Gwynne65,75160.230.046.96.910.63.40.00.00.02.2LABLAB
136433Sefton Central Bill Esterson69,01975.531.747.29.76.53.00.00.00.01.9LABLAB
140429Wigan Lisa Nandy75,35963.131.546.47.511.23.40.00.00.00.0LABLAB
145424Ashton under Lyne Angela Rayner67,67458.832.546.46.711.03.40.00.00.00.0LABLAB
160409Oldham East and Saddleworth Debbie Abrahams72,22365.133.645.26.79.82.70.00.00.02.0LABLAB
162407Makerfield Yvonne Fovargue74,25963.233.344.78.111.02.90.00.00.00.0LABLAB
163406Ellesmere Port and Neston Justin Madders68,66674.234.545.98.08.72.80.00.00.00.0LABLAB
167402Chester, City of Chris Matheson72,85977.435.245.89.57.02.60.00.00.00.0LABLAB
168401Lancashire West Rosie Cooper73,25874.234.945.48.28.33.20.00.00.00.0LABLAB
169400Wirral South Alison McGovern57,67078.435.145.49.76.92.90.00.00.00.0LABLAB
172397Stalybridge and Hyde Jonathan Reynolds71,40959.534.244.06.98.94.00.00.00.01.9LABLAB
173396Weaver Vale Mike Amesbury69,01673.338.047.68.54.01.90.00.00.00.0LABLAB
176393Lancaster and Fleetwood Cat Smith67,17168.534.844.38.97.84.30.00.00.00.0LABLAB
184385Burnley Julie Cooper64,71462.331.740.310.811.33.40.00.00.02.5LABLAB
187382Warrington North Helen Jones72,01567.435.243.48.110.03.30.00.00.00.0LABLAB
189380Worsley and Eccles South Barbara Keeley73,69261.935.743.77.99.23.50.00.00.00.0LABLAB
199370Wirral West Margaret Greenwood55,99578.536.943.79.86.82.70.00.00.00.0LABLAB
203366Hyndburn Graham Jones73,11061.837.143.45.910.92.70.00.00.00.0LABLAB
208361Heywood and Middleton Liz McInnes79,90162.433.839.510.612.83.30.00.00.00.0LABLAB
211358Bury North James Frith67,58770.938.443.77.38.02.50.00.00.00.0LABLAB
224345Leigh Joanne Platt76,21161.539.441.58.18.70.00.00.00.02.3LABLAB
227342Bolton North East David Crausby67,23367.241.041.97.27.62.30.00.00.00.0LABLAB
230339Workington Sue Hayman60,25669.238.438.79.08.53.00.00.00.02.3LABLAB
237332Warrington South Faisal Rashid85,75572.343.942.48.73.60.00.00.00.01.4LABCON
238331Barrow and Furness John Woodcock69,47468.540.639.17.99.52.90.00.00.00.0LABCON
242327Crewe and Nantwich Laura Smith78,89569.740.238.46.99.92.50.00.00.02.1LABCON
250319Blackpool South Gordon Marsden58,45059.841.938.96.08.23.00.00.00.02.1LABCON
251318Bury South Ivan Lewis73,72369.241.838.68.36.62.60.00.00.02.1LABCON
280289Pendle Andrew Stephenson64,96369.054.037.95.30.02.00.00.00.00.8CONCON
284285Altrincham and Sale West Graham Brady73,22072.149.732.812.90.03.30.00.00.01.4CONCON
287281Westmorland and Lonsdale Tim Farron66,39177.935.318.139.47.10.00.00.00.00.0LIBLIB
293276Southport Damien Moore69,40069.147.128.624.30.00.00.00.00.00.0CONCON
300269Bolton West Chris Green72,79770.154.935.18.30.01.70.00.00.00.0CONCON
306263Morecambe and Lunesdale David Morris66,83868.354.834.08.00.02.20.00.00.01.0CONCON
311258Rossendale and Darwen Jake Berry72,49569.255.634.27.90.02.40.00.00.00.0CONCON
320249Carlisle John Stevenson62,29469.157.234.58.30.00.00.00.00.00.0CONCON
322247Macclesfield David Rutley75,22872.253.931.011.70.03.30.00.00.00.0CONCON
324245Copeland Trudy Harrison61,75169.556.833.87.80.01.60.00.00.00.0CONCON
346223Blackpool North and Cleveleys Paul Maynard63,96764.158.632.26.50.01.90.00.00.00.8CONCON
348221Hazel Grove William Wragg62,68470.449.322.728.00.00.00.00.00.00.0CONCON
351218Cheadle Mary Robinson72,78075.045.018.037.00.00.00.00.00.00.0CONCON
371198Ribble South Seema Kennedy75,75272.459.030.58.60.01.90.00.00.00.0CONCON
389180Eddisbury Antoinette Sandbach70,27273.051.922.123.80.02.30.00.00.00.0CONCON
392177Congleton Fiona Bruce76,69473.358.028.010.40.02.60.00.00.01.1CONCON
398171Tatton Esther McVey67,87472.457.026.713.20.03.10.00.00.00.0CONCON
410159Wyre and Preston North Ben Wallace72,31972.859.328.09.30.02.40.00.00.01.0CONCON
432137Ribble Valley Nigel Evans77,96870.859.927.19.30.02.70.00.00.01.0CONCON
435134Fylde Mark Menzies65,93770.559.926.89.30.02.90.00.00.01.0CONCON
50762Penrith and The Border Rory Stewart65,13971.361.623.910.70.02.60.00.00.01.2CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.