| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 18.8% | 3 | 14.2% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| LAB | 44.8% | 66 | 22.7% | 0 | 47 | -47 | 19 |
| LIB | 7.8% | 3 | 10.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 3 |
| Reform | 16.6% | 0 | 31.2% | 45 | 0 | +45 | 45 |
| Green | 7.0% | 0 | 14.8% | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| Other | 4.9% | 1 | 7.1% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Manchester Withington' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Hazel Grove', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Blackpool South (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Manchester Central (prediction: Green).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 403 | Manchester Withington | Jeff Smith | 70,549 | 59.2 | 6.9 | 31.4 | 11.5 | 8.8 | 28.7 | 12.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 26 | 388 | Bootle | Peter Dowd | 73,037 | 53.2 | 2.6 | 49.3 | 1.8 | 32.2 | 5.1 | 8.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 27 | 387 | Liverpool West Derby | Ian Byrne | 69,934 | 54.3 | 3.0 | 48.6 | 2.1 | 31.8 | 5.5 | 9.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 31 | 382 | Manchester Rusholme | Afzal Khan | 72,604 | 40.0 | 8.3 | 25.5 | 5.5 | 10.2 | 35.8 | 14.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Green |
| 34 | 380 | Liverpool Walton | Dan Carden | 69,317 | 53.2 | 2.5 | 48.4 | 1.7 | 33.9 | 4.6 | 8.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 37 | 377 | Sefton Central | Bill Esterson | 74,282 | 63.9 | 5.3 | 48.3 | 2.3 | 34.3 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 40 | 374 | Liverpool Wavertree | Paula Barker | 70,581 | 56.4 | 7.4 | 30.4 | 8.9 | 16.8 | 26.2 | 10.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 45 | 369 | Chester North and Neston | Samantha Dixon | 70,215 | 63.7 | 5.4 | 46.8 | 2.4 | 34.9 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 49 | 365 | Chorley | Lindsay Hoyle | 74,575 | 45.5 | 7.3 | 34.1 | 7.2 | 23.1 | 19.9 | 8.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 57 | 357 | Liverpool Garston | Maria Eagle | 69,282 | 60.6 | 10.0 | 31.3 | 10.3 | 21.5 | 18.4 | 8.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 58 | 356 | Liverpool Riverside | Kim Johnson | 71,380 | 45.4 | 6.4 | 29.1 | 6.9 | 19.6 | 25.0 | 13.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 60 | 354 | Knowsley | Anneliese Midgley | 72,087 | 50.0 | 2.7 | 45.9 | 1.8 | 36.5 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 65 | 349 | Wallasey | Angela Eagle | 74,082 | 57.7 | 4.1 | 44.7 | 1.9 | 36.6 | 5.0 | 7.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 74 | 340 | Warrington South | Sarah Edith Hall | 78,399 | 63.4 | 5.4 | 44.8 | 3.0 | 38.9 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 80 | 334 | Widnes and Halewood | Derek Twigg | 71,233 | 53.5 | 3.4 | 44.0 | 1.9 | 39.5 | 4.0 | 7.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 83 | 331 | Stretford and Urmston | Andrew Western | 75,153 | 61.2 | 12.4 | 27.6 | 7.8 | 23.8 | 19.8 | 8.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 84 | 330 | Ellesmere Port and Bromborough | Justin Madders | 70,799 | 59.3 | 4.0 | 43.2 | 2.0 | 39.5 | 4.4 | 6.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 84 | 329 | Manchester Central | Lucy Powell | 85,049 | 46.7 | 8.1 | 24.4 | 7.5 | 20.7 | 27.3 | 12.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Green |
| 91 | 323 | Lancashire West | Ashley Dalton | 74,083 | 59.7 | 4.9 | 43.4 | 2.4 | 40.3 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 93 | 321 | Wirral West | Matthew Patrick | 72,838 | 68.6 | 14.2 | 33.3 | 8.4 | 30.3 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 94 | 320 | Bury South | Christian Wakeford | 75,339 | 56.0 | 5.4 | 41.7 | 2.2 | 39.8 | 4.3 | 6.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 95 | 318 | Gorton and Denton | Andrew Gwynne | 78,125 | 46.8 | 10.1 | 24.0 | 6.6 | 22.3 | 26.1 | 11.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Green |
| 102 | 312 | Runcorn and Helsby | Mike Amesbury | 71,955 | 58.7 | 4.9 | 41.2 | 2.0 | 41.3 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 109 | 305 | Wythenshawe and Sale East | Mike Kane | 77,765 | 50.3 | 8.1 | 32.0 | 5.1 | 32.7 | 13.2 | 8.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 111 | 303 | Stockport | Navendu Mishra | 76,625 | 57.0 | 10.6 | 24.7 | 9.4 | 25.5 | 20.4 | 9.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 115 | 299 | Altrincham and Sale West | Connor Rand | 74,025 | 69.5 | 21.6 | 22.5 | 12.8 | 23.6 | 13.8 | 5.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 116 | 298 | Salford | Rebecca Long-Bailey | 83,633 | 47.5 | 8.1 | 25.3 | 7.4 | 26.5 | 21.8 | 10.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 123 | 291 | Blackley and Middleton South | Graham Stringer | 72,097 | 43.5 | 6.0 | 33.9 | 3.9 | 36.4 | 11.6 | 8.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 128 | 286 | Macclesfield | Tim Roca | 76,416 | 69.1 | 21.5 | 23.8 | 9.7 | 26.9 | 11.8 | 6.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 133 | 281 | Cheshire Mid | Andrew Graham Cooper | 70,384 | 59.0 | 5.4 | 39.9 | 2.6 | 43.7 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 135 | 278 | Tatton | Esther McVey | 75,978 | 68.3 | 27.2 | 20.5 | 13.3 | 24.5 | 11.5 | 3.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 143 | 271 | Whitehaven and Workington | Josh MacAlister | 73,198 | 57.2 | 4.5 | 40.5 | 2.0 | 45.7 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 144 | 270 | Birkenhead | Alison McGovern | 78,091 | 55.2 | 8.1 | 22.2 | 7.3 | 28.3 | 25.4 | 8.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 145 | 269 | Southport | Patrick Brian Hurley | 73,641 | 61.2 | 10.9 | 31.2 | 9.7 | 37.4 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 160 | 253 | Cheadle | Tom Morrison | 74,383 | 68.2 | 13.6 | 13.7 | 37.3 | 21.7 | 9.8 | 3.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 161 | 253 | St Helens North | David Baines | 75,483 | 53.6 | 6.2 | 33.4 | 3.7 | 41.4 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 162 | 252 | Crewe and Nantwich | Connor Naismith | 78,423 | 60.2 | 7.4 | 35.6 | 3.8 | 43.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 167 | 247 | Warrington North | Charlotte Nichols | 70,601 | 56.7 | 4.5 | 37.6 | 2.0 | 46.0 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 167 | 246 | Blackburn | Adnan Hussain | 73,259 | 53.1 | 9.8 | 13.0 | 3.6 | 21.6 | 15.5 | 36.6 | 0.0 | MIN | MIN |
| 176 | 238 | Worsley and Eccles | Michael Wheeler | 78,643 | 54.1 | 8.4 | 30.9 | 4.3 | 40.2 | 9.5 | 6.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 183 | 231 | Lancaster and Wyre | Cat Smith | 74,760 | 57.5 | 14.3 | 22.3 | 8.1 | 32.4 | 17.3 | 5.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 192 | 222 | Preston | Mark Hendrick | 77,400 | 51.7 | 12.9 | 18.5 | 8.9 | 29.6 | 19.2 | 10.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 195 | 219 | Wigan | Lisa Nandy | 77,537 | 52.7 | 5.4 | 33.6 | 3.2 | 45.0 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 199 | 215 | Morecambe and Lunesdale | Lizzi Collinge | 76,424 | 62.9 | 19.2 | 20.6 | 12.6 | 32.6 | 10.4 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 200 | 214 | Bury North | James Frith | 77,703 | 58.6 | 20.2 | 20.5 | 8.1 | 32.6 | 12.7 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 202 | 212 | St Helens South and Whiston | Marie Rimmer | 71,569 | 53.1 | 9.2 | 23.5 | 8.0 | 35.8 | 16.2 | 7.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 204 | 210 | Bolton West | Phil Brickell | 74,933 | 59.5 | 20.4 | 19.0 | 8.0 | 31.8 | 15.1 | 5.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 205 | 209 | Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton | Jim McMahon | 73,178 | 52.7 | 9.7 | 16.8 | 4.4 | 29.7 | 14.2 | 25.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 208 | 206 | Rochdale | Paul Waugh | 71,264 | 55.7 | 11.9 | 17.3 | 8.3 | 30.4 | 17.3 | 14.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 216 | 198 | Leigh and Atherton | Jo Platt | 79,761 | 51.6 | 4.3 | 35.5 | 1.6 | 49.1 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 226 | 188 | Penrith and Solway | Markus Campbell-Savours | 77,935 | 63.2 | 19.7 | 20.0 | 11.3 | 34.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 231 | 183 | Congleton | Sarah Alison Russell | 74,243 | 67.5 | 21.0 | 18.9 | 11.3 | 33.6 | 10.6 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 234 | 180 | Oldham East and Saddleworth | Debbie Abrahams | 72,760 | 55.1 | 16.1 | 17.8 | 9.8 | 32.7 | 17.0 | 6.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 241 | 173 | Bolton South and Walkden | Yasmin Qureshi | 79,622 | 46.4 | 11.6 | 18.9 | 6.5 | 34.5 | 19.9 | 8.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 253 | 161 | Ribble Valley | Maya Ellis | 80,484 | 64.6 | 22.1 | 17.8 | 12.6 | 34.1 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 256 | 158 | Makerfield | Josh Simons | 76,845 | 52.4 | 3.7 | 34.4 | 2.0 | 50.9 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 263 | 151 | Stalybridge and Hyde | Jonathan Reynolds | 72,265 | 51.5 | 14.2 | 19.9 | 6.4 | 36.9 | 15.8 | 6.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 266 | 148 | South Ribble | Paul Andrew Foster | 73,420 | 63.6 | 19.2 | 20.0 | 9.8 | 37.2 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 267 | 147 | Bolton North East | Kirith Entwistle | 80,011 | 54.2 | 15.1 | 19.1 | 8.0 | 36.4 | 16.3 | 5.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 269 | 145 | Ashton-under-Lyne | Angela Rayner | 71,002 | 49.9 | 11.1 | 20.6 | 6.4 | 37.9 | 16.7 | 7.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 270 | 144 | Burnley | Oliver Ryan | 74,951 | 53.0 | 12.9 | 17.8 | 15.9 | 35.4 | 12.6 | 5.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 277 | 137 | Barrow and Furness | Michelle Scrogham | 74,980 | 56.3 | 18.3 | 20.1 | 8.9 | 38.7 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 295 | 119 | Rossendale and Darwen | Andy MacNae | 74,440 | 59.9 | 18.1 | 18.8 | 7.3 | 39.3 | 11.3 | 5.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 298 | 116 | Carlisle | Julie Minns | 77,863 | 59.1 | 18.1 | 18.2 | 9.3 | 39.0 | 10.5 | 5.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 301 | 112 | Chester South and Eddisbury | Aphra Brandreth | 74,284 | 70.7 | 42.8 | 9.9 | 7.4 | 30.8 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 302 | 112 | Pendle and Clitheroe | Jonathan James Hinder | 78,796 | 59.3 | 26.5 | 14.6 | 8.0 | 35.5 | 10.6 | 4.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 319 | 94 | Westmorland and Lonsdale | Tim Farron | 72,029 | 68.8 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 49.0 | 26.7 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 321 | 93 | Heywood and Middleton North | Elsie Jane Blundell | 74,786 | 49.6 | 14.1 | 18.8 | 7.7 | 41.1 | 12.2 | 6.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 327 | 87 | Blackpool South | Chris Webb | 77,459 | 45.4 | 8.7 | 25.5 | 4.0 | 48.4 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 347 | 67 | Hyndburn | Sarah Smith | 76,126 | 47.8 | 17.8 | 14.4 | 6.7 | 39.5 | 16.2 | 5.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 368 | 46 | Blackpool North and Fleetwood | Lorraine Beavers | 73,339 | 57.0 | 18.3 | 16.9 | 7.5 | 44.4 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 371 | 43 | Fylde | Andrew Snowden | 77,100 | 62.2 | 34.2 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 37.7 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 389 | 24 | Hazel Grove | Lisa Smart | 72,843 | 63.1 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 51.4 | 35.0 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.