North West: Majority Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party	2017 Votes	2017 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	36.2%	20	36.4%	5	0	+5	25
LAB	54.9%	54	43.7%	0	5	-5	49
LIB	5.4%	1	9.5%	0	0	+0	1
Brexit	0.0%	0	5.7%	0	0	+0	0
Green	1.1%	0	3.0%	0	0	+0	0
UKIP	1.9%	0	0.0%	0	0	+0	0
Other	0.5%	0	1.6%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Chorley, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Penrith and The Border, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Blackpool North and Cleveleys (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Crewe and Nantwich (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2017	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Brexit %	Green %	NAT %	UKIP %	MIN %	OTH %	2017 Win	Pred Win
1	568	Chorley	Lindsay Hoyle	76,404	72.8	0.0	98.2	0.0	0.0	1.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	LAB	LAB
3	566	Manchester Gorton	Mohammed Khan	75,362	61.0	12.2	67.7	7.7	5.5	6.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
8	561	Liverpool Riverside	Louise Ellman	76,332	62.9	13.9	64.3	9.7	4.0	8.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
14	555	Manchester Withington	Jeff Smith	74,553	71.9	13.2	59.1	18.8	3.5	5.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
19	550	Liverpool West Derby	Stephen Twigg	65,164	69.3	17.4	61.2	7.4	7.9	3.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.8	LAB	LAB
20	549	Liverpool Wavertree	Luciana Berger	62,411	69.9	16.8	60.5	11.0	5.4	4.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
21	548	Knowsley	George Howarth	81,751	67.9	17.7	61.3	7.5	8.2	3.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.1	LAB	LAB
23	546	Manchester Central	Lucy Powell	90,261	55.1	17.3	60.9	8.0	6.0	6.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
27	542	Bootle	Peter Dowd	72,872	69.0	19.3	61.1	8.5	7.6	3.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
34	535	Blackburn	Kate Hollern	70,657	67.2	24.5	61.1	3.5	7.1	2.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
38	531	Garston and Halewood	Maria Eagle	75,248	71.1	21.7	57.2	8.9	6.7	3.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
40	529	Birkenhead	Frank Field	64,484	67.7	22.0	56.9	7.8	7.4	4.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
45	524	Liverpool Walton	Dan Carden	62,738	67.3	28.2	60.0	7.5	0.0	2.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
47	522	Blackley and Broughton	Graham Stringer	71,648	56.0	25.1	55.6	6.9	8.4	4.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
53	516	Preston	Mark Hendrick	57,791	61.6	25.4	54.9	7.0	9.0	3.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
60	509	Wallasey	Angela Eagle	67,454	71.7	26.1	54.1	8.0	8.5	3.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
65	504	Halton	Derek Twigg	73,457	67.4	26.3	53.3	7.7	9.8	2.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
66	503	Oldham West and Royton	Jim McMahon	72,418	63.2	27.5	54.0	4.4	9.3	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
68	501	Stretford and Urmston	Kate Green	71,840	69.9	27.3	53.6	7.8	7.6	3.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
75	494	Rochdale	Tony Lloyd	78,064	64.1	27.8	52.3	8.0	8.9	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
77	492	St Helens South and Whiston	Marie Rimmer	79,036	66.9	26.7	50.4	9.3	9.5	4.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
82	487	Salford and Eccles	Rebecca Long-Bailey	78,082	61.0	27.4	50.4	8.9	9.1	4.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
90	479	Stockport	Ann Coffey	63,425	65.5	28.0	50.2	9.7	8.2	3.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
98	471	Bolton South East	Yasmin Qureshi	68,886	61.4	30.0	50.4	5.4	10.7	3.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
107	462	Wythenshawe and Sale East	Mike Kane	76,361	60.0	29.0	48.1	8.1	8.9	3.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.1	LAB	LAB
122	447	St Helens North	Conor McGinn	76,088	66.0	30.1	47.5	8.4	10.1	3.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
126	443	Denton and Reddish	Andrew Gwynne	65,751	60.2	30.0	46.9	6.9	10.6	3.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
136	433	Sefton Central	Bill Esterson	69,019	75.5	31.7	47.2	9.7	6.5	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
140	429	Wigan	Lisa Nandy	75,359	63.1	31.5	46.4	7.5	11.2	3.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
145	424	Ashton under Lyne	Angela Rayner	67,674	58.8	32.5	46.4	6.7	11.0	3.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
160	409	Oldham East and Saddleworth	Debbie Abrahams	72,223	65.1	33.6	45.2	6.7	9.8	2.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
162	407	Makerfield	Yvonne Fovargue	74,259	63.2	33.3	44.7	8.1	11.0	2.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
163	406	Ellesmere Port and Neston	Justin Madders	68,666	74.2	34.5	45.9	8.0	8.7	2.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
167	402	Chester, City of	Chris Matheson	72,859	77.4	35.2	45.8	9.5	7.0	2.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
168	401	Lancashire West	Rosie Cooper	73,258	74.2	34.9	45.4	8.2	8.3	3.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
169	400	Wirral South	Alison McGovern	57,670	78.4	35.1	45.4	9.7	6.9	2.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
172	397	Stalybridge and Hyde	Jonathan Reynolds	71,409	59.5	34.2	44.0	6.9	8.9	4.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
173	396	Weaver Vale	Mike Amesbury	69,016	73.3	38.0	47.6	8.5	4.0	1.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
176	393	Lancaster and Fleetwood	Cat Smith	67,171	68.5	34.8	44.3	8.9	7.8	4.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
184	385	Burnley	Julie Cooper	64,714	62.3	31.7	40.3	10.8	11.3	3.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.5	LAB	LAB
187	382	Warrington North	Helen Jones	72,015	67.4	35.2	43.4	8.1	10.0	3.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
189	380	Worsley and Eccles South	Barbara Keeley	73,692	61.9	35.7	43.7	7.9	9.2	3.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
199	370	Wirral West	Margaret Greenwood	55,995	78.5	36.9	43.7	9.8	6.8	2.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
203	366	Hyndburn	Graham Jones	73,110	61.8	37.1	43.4	5.9	10.9	2.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
208	361	Heywood and Middleton	Liz McInnes	79,901	62.4	33.8	39.5	10.6	12.8	3.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
211	358	Bury North	James Frith	67,587	70.9	38.4	43.7	7.3	8.0	2.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
224	345	Leigh	Joanne Platt	76,211	61.5	39.4	41.5	8.1	8.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.3	LAB	LAB
227	342	Bolton North East	David Crausby	67,233	67.2	41.0	41.9	7.2	7.6	2.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
230	339	Workington	Sue Hayman	60,256	69.2	38.4	38.7	9.0	8.5	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.3	LAB	LAB
237	332	Warrington South	Faisal Rashid	85,755	72.3	43.9	42.4	8.7	3.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.4	LAB	CON
238	331	Barrow and Furness	John Woodcock	69,474	68.5	40.6	39.1	7.9	9.5	2.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	CON
242	327	Crewe and Nantwich	Laura Smith	78,895	69.7	40.2	38.4	6.9	9.9	2.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.1	LAB	CON
250	319	Blackpool South	Gordon Marsden	58,450	59.8	41.9	38.9	6.0	8.2	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.1	LAB	CON
251	318	Bury South	Ivan Lewis	73,723	69.2	41.8	38.6	8.3	6.6	2.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.1	LAB	CON
280	289	Pendle	Andrew Stephenson	64,963	69.0	54.0	37.9	5.3	0.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
284	285	Altrincham and Sale West	Graham Brady	73,220	72.1	49.7	32.8	12.9	0.0	3.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.4	CON	CON
287	281	Westmorland and Lonsdale	Tim Farron	66,391	77.9	35.3	18.1	39.4	7.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LIB	LIB
293	276	Southport	Damien Moore	69,400	69.1	47.1	28.6	24.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
300	269	Bolton West	Chris Green	72,797	70.1	54.9	35.1	8.3	0.0	1.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
306	263	Morecambe and Lunesdale	David Morris	66,838	68.3	54.8	34.0	8.0	0.0	2.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	CON	CON
311	258	Rossendale and Darwen	Jake Berry	72,495	69.2	55.6	34.2	7.9	0.0	2.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
320	249	Carlisle	John Stevenson	62,294	69.1	57.2	34.5	8.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
322	247	Macclesfield	David Rutley	75,228	72.2	53.9	31.0	11.7	0.0	3.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
324	245	Copeland	Trudy Harrison	61,751	69.5	56.8	33.8	7.8	0.0	1.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
346	223	Blackpool North and Cleveleys	Paul Maynard	63,967	64.1	58.6	32.2	6.5	0.0	1.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
348	221	Hazel Grove	William Wragg	62,684	70.4	49.3	22.7	28.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
351	218	Cheadle	Mary Robinson	72,780	75.0	45.0	18.0	37.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
371	198	Ribble South	Seema Kennedy	75,752	72.4	59.0	30.5	8.6	0.0	1.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
389	180	Eddisbury	Antoinette Sandbach	70,272	73.0	51.9	22.1	23.8	0.0	2.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
392	177	Congleton	Fiona Bruce	76,694	73.3	58.0	28.0	10.4	0.0	2.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.1	CON	CON
398	171	Tatton	Esther McVey	67,874	72.4	57.0	26.7	13.2	0.0	3.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
410	159	Wyre and Preston North	Ben Wallace	72,319	72.8	59.3	28.0	9.3	0.0	2.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	CON	CON
432	137	Ribble Valley	Nigel Evans	77,968	70.8	59.9	27.1	9.3	0.0	2.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	CON	CON
435	134	Fylde	Mark Menzies	65,937	70.5	59.9	26.8	9.3	0.0	2.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	CON	CON
507	62	Penrith and The Border	Rory Stewart	65,139	71.3	61.6	23.9	10.7	0.0	2.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.