North West: Majority Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party	2017 Votes	2017 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	36.2%	20	21.7%	0	10	-10	10
LAB	54.9%	54	41.3%	9	0	+9	63
LIB	5.4%	1	6.0%	1	0	+1	2
UKIP	1.9%	0	5.1%	0	0	+0	0
Green	1.1%	0	4.4%	0	0	+0	0
ChUK	0.0%	0	4.2%	0	0	+0	0
Brexit	0.0%	0	15.7%	0	0	+0	0
Minor	0.5%	0	1.5%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Manchester Gorton, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Westmorland and Lonsdale, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Ribble South (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Wirral West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2017	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	UKIP %	Green %	NAT %	ChUK %	Brexit %	MIN %	OTH %	2017 Win	Pred Win
4	546	Manchester Gorton	Mohammed Khan	75,362	61.0	6.4	64.0	5.7	3.2	6.7	0.0	4.1	9.5	0.0	0.5	LAB	LAB
8	542	Liverpool Riverside	Louise Ellman	76,332	62.9	7.8	62.1	5.5	3.2	6.5	0.0	4.3	9.7	0.0	0.9	LAB	LAB
9	541	Liverpool Walton	Dan Carden	62,738	67.3	8.2	61.9	4.5	3.9	4.5	0.0	4.0	11.9	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
13	537	Liverpool West Derby	Stephen Twigg	65,164	69.3	9.1	61.7	4.3	3.8	4.4	0.0	4.1	11.5	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
14	536	Knowsley	George Howarth	81,751	67.9	8.8	58.9	4.5	4.4	4.6	0.0	4.0	13.4	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
16	534	Liverpool Wavertree	Luciana Berger	62,411	69.9	9.6	59.0	7.2	3.3	5.2	0.0	4.6	10.1	0.0	1.0	LAB	LAB
18	532	Bootle	Peter Dowd	72,872	69.0	9.9	59.1	4.4	4.1	4.5	0.0	4.0	12.6	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
19	531	Manchester Withington	Jeff Smith	74,553	71.9	8.4	57.6	12.4	2.3	6.2	0.0	5.4	7.2	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
24	526	Manchester Central	Lucy Powell	90,261	55.1	9.4	56.6	5.3	4.3	6.6	0.0	4.1	12.8	0.0	1.0	LAB	LAB
28	522	Blackburn	Kate Hollern	70,657	67.2	16.0	60.8	3.2	3.0	3.7	0.0	3.6	9.2	0.0	0.5	LAB	LAB
30	520	Garston and Halewood	Maria Eagle	75,248	71.1	12.8	56.6	5.3	3.8	4.4	0.0	4.2	11.7	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
36	514	Birkenhead	Frank Field	64,484	67.7	12.6	54.5	4.8	4.4	4.6	0.0	4.1	13.5	0.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
41	509	Blackley and Broughton	Graham Stringer	71,648	56.0	12.1	52.4	3.8	5.3	5.8	0.0	3.7	15.9	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
51	499	Preston	Mark Hendrick	57,791	61.6	14.0	50.4	4.4	5.2	5.1	0.0	3.9	15.8	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
53	497	Halton	Derek Twigg	73,457	67.4	14.5	50.3	4.1	5.3	4.4	0.0	3.9	16.0	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
59	491	Oldham West and Royton	Jim McMahon	72,418	63.2	16.0	51.0	3.4	5.1	4.7	0.0	3.7	15.2	0.0	0.9	LAB	LAB
60	490	Wallasey	Angela Eagle	67,454	71.7	15.2	50.2	4.3	4.9	4.8	0.0	4.1	15.0	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
66	484	Stretford and Urmston	Kate Green	71,840	69.9	16.9	50.8	4.3	4.4	4.9	0.0	4.1	13.5	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
79	471	St Helens South and Whiston	Marie Rimmer	79,036	66.9	14.6	46.2	5.0	5.8	5.0	0.0	4.1	17.7	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
81	469	Rochdale	Tony Lloyd	78,064	64.1	16.9	48.3	6.2	4.7	4.8	0.0	4.3	14.2	0.0	0.8	LAB	LAB
86	464	Salford and Eccles	Rebecca Long-Bailey	78,082	61.0	14.9	45.6	4.6	5.9	5.4	0.0	3.9	18.0	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
94	456	Stockport	Ann Coffey	63,425	65.5	17.2	46.7	5.5	4.9	5.0	0.0	4.3	14.9	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
97	453	Bolton South East	Yasmin Qureshi	68,886	61.4	16.3	45.4	3.4	6.2	5.3	0.0	3.7	18.6	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
110	440	Wythenshawe and Sale East	Mike Kane	76,361	60.0	17.0	44.9	4.8	5.6	4.9	0.0	4.0	17.1	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
121	429	St Helens North	Conor McGinn	76,088	66.0	16.9	43.3	4.2	6.2	4.8	0.0	3.9	18.9	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
125	425	Denton and Reddish	Andrew Gwynne	65,751	60.2	17.0	43.1	4.1	6.2	4.9	0.0	4.0	18.8	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
129	421	Wigan	Lisa Nandy	75,359	63.1	17.0	41.7	3.8	6.7	4.7	0.0	3.8	20.3	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
130	420	Sefton Central	Bill Esterson	69,019	75.5	22.3	46.9	5.1	3.8	4.2	0.0	4.5	11.8	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
136	414	Ashton under Lyne	Angela Rayner	67,674	58.8	18.2	42.3	3.7	6.3	4.9	0.0	3.8	19.1	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
139	411	Makerfield	Yvonne Fovargue	74,259	63.2	21.1	44.8	4.6	4.9	3.5	0.0	4.1	15.2	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
158	392	Oldham East and Saddleworth	Debbie Abrahams	72,223	65.1	21.1	42.1	4.4	5.6	4.6	0.0	4.0	16.9	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
160	390	Ellesmere Port and Neston	Justin Madders	68,666	74.2	22.6	43.3	4.1	5.0	3.9	0.0	3.9	15.4	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
167	383	Lancashire West	Rosie Cooper	73,258	74.2	23.1	43.2	4.2	4.9	3.8	0.0	4.0	15.2	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
168	382	Stalybridge and Hyde	Jonathan Reynolds	71,409	59.5	21.8	41.9	4.4	5.4	4.2	0.0	4.1	16.5	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
174	376	Worsley and Eccles South	Barbara Keeley	73,692	61.9	22.3	41.4	4.3	5.5	3.9	0.0	3.9	16.9	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
177	373	Chester, City of	Chris Matheson	72,859	77.4	24.9	43.8	5.0	4.1	3.6	0.0	4.2	12.9	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
179	371	Warrington North	Helen Jones	72,015	67.4	21.4	40.0	4.2	6.0	4.2	0.0	3.8	18.4	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
181	369	Wirral South	Alison McGovern	57,670	78.4	25.1	43.5	5.1	4.1	3.9	0.0	4.3	12.6	0.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
184	366	Leigh	Joanne Platt	76,211	61.5	20.7	38.5	3.9	6.6	4.5	0.0	3.8	20.0	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
187	363	Lancaster and Fleetwood	Cat Smith	67,171	68.5	23.8	40.8	4.8	4.9	4.5	0.0	4.3	15.2	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
188	362	Burnley	Julie Cooper	64,714	62.3	18.0	35.0	8.6	6.8	5.0	0.0	4.6	20.5	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
192	358	Bury South	Ivan Lewis	73,723	69.2	23.9	40.6	4.2	5.2	4.6	0.0	3.9	16.0	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
194	356	Hyndburn	Graham Jones	73,110	61.8	23.1	39.7	3.7	5.9	4.4	0.0	3.9	17.9	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
196	354	Heywood and Middleton	Liz McInnes	79,901	62.4	21.2	37.7	3.9	6.7	4.6	0.0	3.8	20.3	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
200	350	Bolton North East	David Crausby	67,233	67.2	23.5	39.4	4.2	5.8	4.4	0.0	3.9	17.5	0.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
203	347	Bury North	James Frith	67,587	70.9	26.9	42.3	4.2	4.4	3.5	0.0	4.1	13.5	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
205	345	Chorley	Lindsay Hoyle	76,404	72.8	25.8	41.0	4.2	4.9	3.5	0.0	4.0	15.0	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
209	341	Wirral West	Margaret Greenwood	55,995	78.5	26.9	41.7	4.9	4.1	3.9	0.0	4.3	12.8	0.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
228	322	Weaver Vale	Mike Amesbury	69,016	73.3	26.4	39.2	4.9	4.9	3.8	0.0	4.1	15.1	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
231	319	Workington	Sue Hayman	60,256	69.2	24.2	36.8	4.2	6.2	4.1	0.0	3.8	18.9	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
235	315	Blackpool South	Gordon Marsden	58,450	59.8	23.2	34.9	3.9	6.8	4.5	0.0	3.8	20.7	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
245	305	Pendle	Andrew Stephenson	64,963	69.0	28.2	38.7	3.7	5.1	3.6	0.0	3.9	15.5	0.0	1.2	CON	LAB
246	304	Warrington South	Faisal Rashid	85,755	72.3	27.1	37.3	6.0	4.8	4.0	0.0	4.4	14.8	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
263	287	Crewe and Nantwich	Laura Smith	78,895	69.7	26.9	34.9	4.2	5.9	4.0	0.0	4.0	18.1	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
267	283	Barrow and Furness	John Woodcock	69,474	68.5	27.6	35.1	4.4	5.6	4.0	0.0	4.0	17.3	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
271	279	Bolton West	Chris Green	72,797	70.1	28.0	35.1	4.5	5.6	4.0	0.0	4.0	17.0	0.0	1.7	CON	LAB
286	264	Morecambe and Lunesdale	David Morris	66,838	68.3	27.4	33.2	4.9	5.9	4.3	0.0	4.2	18.1	0.0	1.9	CON	LAB
291	259	Copeland	Trudy Harrison	61,751	69.5	28.8	33.7	4.5	5.8	3.6	0.0	3.9	17.8	0.0	1.8	CON	LAB
293	257	Blackpool North and Cleveleys	Paul Maynard	63,967	64.1	27.2	32.0	3.8	6.6	4.2	0.0	3.8	20.2	0.0	2.1	CON	LAB
294	256	Carlisle	John Stevenson	62,294	69.1	27.9	32.7	4.4	6.2	3.9	0.0	3.9	19.0	0.0	2.0	CON	LAB
296	254	Rossendale and Darwen	Jake Berry	72,495	69.2	29.6	34.0	4.6	5.5	3.6	0.0	4.0	16.9	0.0	1.8	CON	LAB
304	246	Southport	Damien Moore	69,400	69.1	24.1	27.2	15.6	5.2	4.3	0.0	5.9	16.1	0.0	1.6	CON	LAB
308	242	Altrincham and Sale West	Graham Brady	73,220	72.1	30.6	32.7	7.5	4.4	4.5	0.0	4.9	13.8	0.0	1.4	CON	LAB
327	223	Ribble South	Seema Kennedy	75,752	72.4	31.1	29.9	4.7	6.1	3.9	0.0	4.0	18.5	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
329	221	Macclesfield	David Rutley	75,228	72.2	30.9	29.5	6.4	5.5	4.6	0.0	4.5	16.9	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
372	178	Congleton	Fiona Bruce	76,694	73.3	33.2	27.4	5.6	5.8	4.2	0.0	4.3	17.7	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
374	176	Eddisbury	Antoinette Sandbach	70,272	73.0	33.2	27.1	5.7	5.9	4.1	0.0	4.2	18.0	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
381	169	Fylde	Mark Menzies	70,324	66.1	33.5	26.8	5.6	5.9	3.9	0.0	4.3	18.0	0.0	2.0	CON	CON
383	167	Wyre and Preston North	Ben Wallace	72,319	72.8	35.3	28.4	5.5	5.2	3.6	0.0	4.3	16.0	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
388	162	Ribble Valley	Nigel Evans	77,968	70.8	34.3	27.0	5.8	5.7	3.6	0.0	4.2	17.5	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
392	158	Hazel Grove	William Wragg	62,684	70.4	28.3	20.3	18.8	5.1	3.8	0.0	6.3	15.8	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
398	151	Cheadle	Mary Robinson	72,780	75.0	27.1	18.5	29.9	3.6	3.1	0.0	5.3	11.4	0.0	1.1	CON	LIB
417	133	Tatton	Esther McVey	67,874	72.4	34.5	24.7	7.8	5.4	4.4	0.0	4.7	16.7	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
452	98	Penrith and The Border	Rory Stewart	65,139	71.3	34.2	22.1	6.7	6.5	4.4	0.0	4.3	19.9	0.0	2.0	CON	CON
491	58	Westmorland and Lonsdale	Tim Farron	66,391	77.9	26.1	11.2	35.2	4.4	2.8	0.0	5.3	13.7	0.0	1.4	LIB	LIB

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.