North West: Majority Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 36.2%20 21.7%010-1010
LAB 54.9%54 41.3%90+963
LIB 5.4%1 6.0%10+12
UKIP 1.9%0 5.1%00+00
Green 1.1%0 4.4%00+00
ChUK 0.0%0 4.2%00+00
Brexit 0.0%0 15.7%00+00
Minor 0.5%0 1.5%00+00

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Manchester Gorton, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Westmorland and Lonsdale, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Ribble South (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Wirral West (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
4546Manchester Gorton Mohammed Khan75,36261.06.464.
8542Liverpool Riverside Louise Ellman76,33262.97.862.
9541Liverpool Walton Dan Carden62,73867.
13537Liverpool West Derby Stephen Twigg65,16469.
14536Knowsley George Howarth81,75167.98.858.
16534Liverpool Wavertree Luciana Berger62,41169.99.659.
18532Bootle Peter Dowd72,87269.09.959.
19531Manchester Withington Jeff Smith74,55371.98.457.612.
24526Manchester Central Lucy Powell90,26155.19.456.
28522Blackburn Kate Hollern70,65767.
30520Garston and Halewood Maria Eagle75,24871.112.856.
36514Birkenhead Frank Field64,48467.712.654.
41509Blackley and Broughton Graham Stringer71,64856.
51499Preston Mark Hendrick57,79161.614.
53497Halton Derek Twigg73,45767.414.550.
59491Oldham West and Royton Jim McMahon72,41863.
60490Wallasey Angela Eagle67,45471.715.
66484Stretford and Urmston Kate Green71,84069.916.950.
79471St Helens South and Whiston Marie Rimmer79,03666.914.646.
81469Rochdale Tony Lloyd78,06464.116.948.
86464Salford and Eccles Rebecca Long-Bailey78,08261.014.945.
94456Stockport Ann Coffey63,42565.517.
97453Bolton South East Yasmin Qureshi68,88661.416.345.
110440Wythenshawe and Sale East Mike Kane76,36160.
121429St Helens North Conor McGinn76,08866.016.943.
125425Denton and Reddish Andrew Gwynne65,75160.
129421Wigan Lisa Nandy75,35963.
130420Sefton Central Bill Esterson69,01975.522.346.
136414Ashton under Lyne Angela Rayner67,67458.818.
139411Makerfield Yvonne Fovargue74,25963.
158392Oldham East and Saddleworth Debbie Abrahams72,22365.
160390Ellesmere Port and Neston Justin Madders68,66674.222.643.
167383Lancashire West Rosie Cooper73,25874.
168382Stalybridge and Hyde Jonathan Reynolds71,40959.521.841.
174376Worsley and Eccles South Barbara Keeley73,69261.922.341.
177373Chester, City of Chris Matheson72,85977.424.943.
179371Warrington North Helen Jones72,01567.421.440.
181369Wirral South Alison McGovern57,67078.425.
184366Leigh Joanne Platt76,21161.520.738.
187363Lancaster and Fleetwood Cat Smith67,17168.523.840.
188362Burnley Julie Cooper64,71462.318.
192358Bury South Ivan Lewis73,72369.223.940.
194356Hyndburn Graham Jones73,11061.823.
196354Heywood and Middleton Liz McInnes79,90162.421.
200350Bolton North East David Crausby67,23367.223.539.
203347Bury North James Frith67,58770.926.942.
205345Chorley Lindsay Hoyle76,40472.825.841.
209341Wirral West Margaret Greenwood55,99578.526.941.
228322Weaver Vale Mike Amesbury69,01673.326.439.
231319Workington Sue Hayman60,25669.
235315Blackpool South Gordon Marsden58,45059.823.
245305Pendle Andrew Stephenson64,96369.
246304Warrington South Faisal Rashid85,75572.327.
263287Crewe and Nantwich Laura Smith78,89569.726.934.
267283Barrow and Furness John Woodcock69,47468.527.635.
271279Bolton West Chris Green72,79770.
286264Morecambe and Lunesdale David Morris66,83868.327.433.
291259Copeland Trudy Harrison61,75169.528.833.
293257Blackpool North and Cleveleys Paul Maynard63,96764.
294256Carlisle John Stevenson62,29469.127.932.
296254Rossendale and Darwen Jake Berry72,49569.229.634.
304246Southport Damien Moore69,40069.
308242Altrincham and Sale West Graham Brady73,22072.130.632.
327223Ribble South Seema Kennedy75,75272.431.
329221Macclesfield David Rutley75,22872.230.929.
372178Congleton Fiona Bruce76,69473.333.
374176Eddisbury Antoinette Sandbach70,27273.
381169Fylde Mark Menzies70,32466.133.526.
383167Wyre and Preston North Ben Wallace72,31972.835.328.
388162Ribble Valley Nigel Evans77,96870.834.327.
392158Hazel Grove William Wragg62,68470.428.320.318.
398151Cheadle Mary Robinson72,78075.027.118.529.
417133Tatton Esther McVey67,87472.434.524.
45298Penrith and The Border Rory Stewart65,13971.334.
49158Westmorland and Lonsdale Tim Farron66,39177.926.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.