North West: Majority Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 36.2%20 28.4%33+020
LAB 54.9%54 37.0%03-351
LIB 5.4%1 14.5%30+34
Brexit 0.0%0 14.6%00+00
Green 1.1%0 3.3%00+00
UKIP 1.9%0 0.9%00+00
Other 0.5%0 1.2%00+00

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Manchester Gorton, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Penrith and The Border, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Congleton (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Pendle (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
1546Manchester Gorton Mohammed Khan75,36261.011.660.
6541Liverpool Walton Dan Carden62,73867.313.457.411.
8539Liverpool West Derby Stephen Twigg65,16469.314.356.711.311.
9538Liverpool Riverside Louise Ellman76,33262.912.854.415.
10537Knowsley George Howarth81,75167.914.255.211.613.
14533Bootle Peter Dowd72,87269.015.454.111.812.
15532Liverpool Wavertree Luciana Berger62,41169.914.652.317.
16531Manchester Central Lucy Powell90,26155.115.252.613.
21526Manchester Withington Jeff Smith74,55371.912.247.727.
24523Blackburn Kate Hollern70,65767.222.755.37.711.
25522Garston and Halewood Maria Eagle75,24871.118.450.514.
29518Birkenhead Frank Field64,48467.718.450.012.612.
31516Blackley and Broughton Graham Stringer71,64856.
42505Preston Mark Hendrick57,79161.621.147.611.
44503Halton Derek Twigg73,45767.421.046.510.915.
45502Wallasey Angela Eagle67,45471.721.446.711.514.
49498Oldham West and Royton Jim McMahon72,41863.223.747.98.715.
55492Stretford and Urmston Kate Green71,84069.923.546.211.912.
58489St Helens South and Whiston Marie Rimmer79,03666.921.443.
60487Salford and Eccles Rebecca Long-Bailey78,08261.
62485Rochdale Tony Lloyd78,06464.123.844.613.913.
72475Bolton South East Yasmin Qureshi68,88661.425.044.08.717.
77470Stockport Ann Coffey63,42565.523.641.914.713.
93454Wythenshawe and Sale East Mike Kane76,36160.024.441.313.514.
96451Denton and Reddish Andrew Gwynne65,75160.224.340.711.
98449St Helens North Conor McGinn76,08866.024.440.412.
109438Wigan Lisa Nandy75,35963.125.339.710.818.
114433Ashton under Lyne Angela Rayner67,67458.826.440.19.818.
122425Sefton Central Bill Esterson69,01975.527.840.315.
127420Makerfield Yvonne Fovargue74,25963.227.639.511.
146401Oldham East and Saddleworth Debbie Abrahams72,22365.128.838.312.516.
147400Ellesmere Port and Neston Justin Madders68,66674.229.338.711.915.
148399Stalybridge and Hyde Jonathan Reynolds71,40959.528.837.611.715.
154393Lancashire West Rosie Cooper73,25874.229.938.
157390Worsley and Eccles South Barbara Keeley73,69261.929.537.311.715.
164383Leigh Joanne Platt76,21161.528.836.110.819.
166381Chester, City of Chris Matheson72,85977.430.837.914.512.
167380Warrington North Helen Jones72,01567.429.
169378Wirral South Alison McGovern57,67078.430.737.714.512.
172375Hyndburn Graham Jones73,11061.830.937.49.318.
177370Burnley Julie Cooper64,71462.325.931.818.718.
178369Lancaster and Fleetwood Cat Smith67,17168.530.235.913.713.
180367Heywood and Middleton Liz McInnes79,90162.429.835.210.919.
182365Bolton North East David Crausby67,23367.231.836.611.
185362Bury South Ivan Lewis73,72369.231.736.211.915.
186361Bury North James Frith67,58770.933.237.311.613.
188359Chorley Lindsay Hoyle76,40472.832.335.911.815.
189358Wirral West Margaret Greenwood55,99578.532.635.914.712.
203344Blackpool South Gordon Marsden58,45059.831.633.29.820.
204343Workington Sue Hayman60,25669.232.133.511.518.
208339Weaver Vale Mike Amesbury69,01673.332.834.
220327Pendle Andrew Stephenson64,96369.035.435.09.615.
228319Warrington South Faisal Rashid85,75572.333.131.716.313.
235312Barrow and Furness John Woodcock69,47468.534.531.911.916.
239308Crewe and Nantwich Laura Smith78,89569.734.531.611.917.
250297Bolton West Chris Green72,79770.135.531.112.816.
257290Morecambe and Lunesdale David Morris66,83868.334.930.112.817.
263284Carlisle John Stevenson62,29469.135.429.711.618.
264283Blackpool North and Cleveleys Paul Maynard63,96764.135.629.610.419.
265282Rossendale and Darwen Jake Berry72,49569.236.330.
266281Copeland Trudy Harrison61,75169.536.230.011.917.
280266Southport Damien Moore69,40069.129.120.731.714.
291256Altrincham and Sale West Graham Brady73,22072.136.526.820.
307240Ribble South Seema Kennedy75,75272.438.826.313.
309238Macclesfield David Rutley75,22872.237.624.717.413.
336211Congleton Fiona Bruce76,69473.339.922.716.815.
340207Eddisbury Antoinette Sandbach70,27273.040.422.916.
341205Hazel Grove William Wragg62,68470.432.014.336.
342204Cheadle Mary Robinson72,78075.031.713.640.910.
350197Wyre and Preston North Ben Wallace72,31972.842.023.614.815.
354193Ribble Valley Nigel Evans77,96870.841.322.614.916.
360187Fylde Mark Menzies65,93770.541.722.314.915.
377170Tatton Esther McVey67,87472.441.120.019.913.
380166Westmorland and Lonsdale Tim Farron66,39177.929.48.047.911.
398149Penrith and The Border Rory Stewart65,13971.341.818.617.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.