North West: Majority Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 36.2%20 31.9%00+020
LAB 54.9%54 51.6%00+054
LIB 5.4%1 8.1%00+01
UKIP 1.9%0 4.7%00+00
Green 1.1%0 2.2%00+00
Minor 0.5%0 1.5%00+00

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Liverpool Walton, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Penrith and The Border, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Macclesfield (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Warrington South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
1567Liverpool Walton Dan Carden62,73867.36.682.
2566Knowsley George Howarth81,75167.
3565Liverpool Riverside Louise Ellman76,33262.97.481.
4564Liverpool West Derby Stephen Twigg65,16469.37.679.
5563Bootle Peter Dowd72,87269.09.380.
10558Manchester Gorton Mohammed Khan75,36261.05.673.
11557Liverpool Wavertree Luciana Berger62,41169.99.376.
15553Manchester Central Lucy Powell90,26155.110.974.
20548Garston and Halewood Maria Eagle75,24871.113.674.
21547Manchester Withington Jeff Smith74,55371.97.968.418.
23545Birkenhead Frank Field64,48467.714.
31537Halton Derek Twigg73,45767.417.
41527Blackley and Broughton Graham Stringer71,64856.
43525Wallasey Angela Eagle67,45471.718.668.
48520St Helens South and Whiston Marie Rimmer79,03666.917.
55513Preston Mark Hendrick57,79161.619.
57511Blackburn Kate Hollern70,65767.222.366.
68500Salford and Eccles Rebecca Long-Bailey78,08261.020.762.
72496Stretford and Urmston Kate Green71,84069.922.963.
80488Oldham West and Royton Jim McMahon72,41863.
86482St Helens North Conor McGinn76,08866.022.560.
88480Denton and Reddish Andrew Gwynne65,75160.223.460.
90478Stockport Ann Coffey63,42565.523.860.
93475Wigan Lisa Nandy75,35963.123.958.
99469Wythenshawe and Sale East Mike Kane76,36160.
107461Bolton South East Yasmin Qureshi68,88661.425.
114454Sefton Central Bill Esterson69,01975.528.459.
119449Rochdale Tony Lloyd78,06464.123.854.710.
128440Makerfield Yvonne Fovargue74,25963.226.756.
131437Ashton under Lyne Angela Rayner67,67458.827.357.
154414Ellesmere Port and Neston Justin Madders68,66674.
159409Lancashire West Rosie Cooper73,25874.232.855.
162406Leigh Joanne Platt76,21161.531.
167401Warrington North Helen Jones72,01567.432.
172396Stalybridge and Hyde Jonathan Reynolds71,40959.533.553.
173395Wirral South Alison McGovern57,67078.434.
175393Worsley and Eccles South Barbara Keeley73,69261.934.
179389Oldham East and Saddleworth Debbie Abrahams72,22365.132.551.
183385Chester, City of Chris Matheson72,85977.435.953.
185383Burnley Julie Cooper64,71462.326.443.517.
187381Heywood and Middleton Liz McInnes79,90162.433.450.
188380Lancaster and Fleetwood Cat Smith67,17168.536.
192376Chorley Lindsay Hoyle76,40472.837.
195373Hyndburn Graham Jones73,11061.835.950.
197371Wirral West Margaret Greenwood55,99578.537.551.
199369Bury South Ivan Lewis73,72369.
211357Workington Sue Hayman60,25669.
212356Bury North James Frith67,58770.939.950.
216352Bolton North East David Crausby67,23367.237.647.
220348Weaver Vale Mike Amesbury69,01673.339.
222346Blackpool South Gordon Marsden58,45059.838.547.
234334Warrington South Faisal Rashid85,75572.339.645.
249319Barrow and Furness John Woodcock69,47468.542.444.
251317Crewe and Nantwich Laura Smith78,89569.742.443.
267301Bolton West Chris Green72,79770.143.342.
273295Pendle Andrew Stephenson64,96369.044.442.
274294Morecambe and Lunesdale David Morris66,83868.343.
283285Copeland Trudy Harrison61,75169.544.441.
287281Blackpool North and Cleveleys Paul Maynard63,96764.144.841.
294274Carlisle John Stevenson62,29469.
295273Southport Damien Moore69,40069.134.029.329.
296272Rossendale and Darwen Jake Berry72,49569.
319249Altrincham and Sale West Graham Brady73,22072.146.435.610.
323245Ribble South Seema Kennedy75,75272.448.
330238Macclesfield David Rutley75,22872.
370198Congleton Fiona Bruce76,69473.352.
376192Wyre and Preston North Ben Wallace72,31972.853.731.
377191Eddisbury Antoinette Sandbach70,27273.052.330.
383185Ribble Valley Nigel Evans77,96870.853.
392176Hazel Grove William Wragg62,68470.440.817.
394174Cheadle Mary Robinson72,78075.
395173Fylde Mark Menzies70,32466.
434134Tatton Esther McVey67,87472.453.925.
462105Westmorland and Lonsdale Tim Farron66,39177.939.77.748.
47098Penrith and The Border Rory Stewart65,13971.355.822.910.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.