Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CON | 18.8% | 3 | 13.8% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
LAB | 44.8% | 66 | 29.1% | 0 | 43 | -43 | 23 |
LIB | 7.8% | 3 | 10.8% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 3 |
Reform | 16.6% | 0 | 33.0% | 45 | 0 | +45 | 45 |
Green | 7.0% | 0 | 9.4% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
Other | 4.9% | 1 | 3.9% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Chorley' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Chester South and Eddisbury', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Chester South and Eddisbury (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Chorley (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
LAB Seats | CON Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 186 | Chorley | Lindsay Hoyle | 74,575 | 45.5 | 3.1 | 44.2 | 7.6 | 24.5 | 14.7 | 0.0 | 5.9 | LAB | LAB |
4 | 183 | Liverpool Walton | Dan Carden | 69,317 | 53.2 | 3.7 | 39.0 | 7.6 | 37.5 | 10.6 | 0.0 | 1.7 | LAB | LAB |
5 | 182 | Bootle | Peter Dowd | 73,037 | 53.2 | 4.2 | 39.1 | 7.8 | 33.6 | 12.5 | 2.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
6 | 181 | Liverpool West Derby | Ian Byrne | 69,934 | 54.3 | 4.1 | 38.8 | 8.6 | 34.1 | 10.8 | 0.0 | 3.6 | LAB | LAB |
9 | 178 | Knowsley | Anneliese Midgley | 72,087 | 50.0 | 4.2 | 38.2 | 7.8 | 37.4 | 10.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | LAB | LAB |
13 | 174 | Manchester Withington | Jeff Smith | 70,549 | 59.2 | 5.2 | 37.1 | 16.7 | 14.2 | 22.4 | 4.2 | 0.2 | LAB | LAB |
14 | 173 | Liverpool Wavertree | Paula Barker | 70,581 | 56.4 | 4.7 | 36.4 | 11.8 | 23.9 | 20.1 | 0.0 | 3.1 | LAB | LAB |
15 | 172 | Liverpool Garston | Maria Eagle | 69,282 | 60.6 | 6.0 | 37.4 | 12.3 | 28.7 | 10.5 | 0.0 | 5.1 | LAB | LAB |
21 | 165 | Widnes and Halewood | Derek Twigg | 71,233 | 53.5 | 6.4 | 36.5 | 8.1 | 38.4 | 8.3 | 2.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
24 | 163 | Liverpool Riverside | Kim Johnson | 71,380 | 45.4 | 3.7 | 32.6 | 9.6 | 30.0 | 21.2 | 0.0 | 2.8 | LAB | LAB |
29 | 158 | Ellesmere Port and Bromborough | Justin Madders | 70,799 | 59.3 | 10.2 | 38.3 | 8.6 | 33.2 | 8.4 | 0.0 | 1.2 | LAB | LAB |
31 | 155 | Wallasey | Angela Eagle | 74,082 | 57.7 | 7.3 | 35.1 | 8.2 | 35.3 | 11.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | LAB | Reform |
35 | 152 | Sefton Central | Bill Esterson | 74,282 | 63.9 | 15.1 | 41.3 | 9.4 | 25.3 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 1.3 | LAB | LAB |
38 | 148 | Birkenhead | Alison McGovern | 78,091 | 55.2 | 5.7 | 31.4 | 9.2 | 33.5 | 18.8 | 0.0 | 1.4 | LAB | Reform |
40 | 146 | Salford | Rebecca Long-Bailey | 83,633 | 47.5 | 6.3 | 30.9 | 10.2 | 33.0 | 16.5 | 2.7 | 0.5 | LAB | Reform |
44 | 143 | Stockport | Navendu Mishra | 76,625 | 57.0 | 10.1 | 34.2 | 11.8 | 28.0 | 11.6 | 4.1 | 0.3 | LAB | LAB |
47 | 140 | Manchester Rusholme | Afzal Khan | 72,604 | 40.0 | 4.6 | 28.7 | 8.3 | 20.1 | 27.2 | 10.2 | 0.8 | LAB | LAB |
54 | 132 | Manchester Central | Lucy Powell | 85,049 | 46.7 | 5.3 | 28.8 | 11.4 | 29.4 | 19.7 | 4.4 | 0.9 | LAB | Reform |
56 | 130 | Gorton and Denton | Andrew Gwynne | 78,125 | 46.8 | 5.4 | 28.6 | 9.2 | 33.2 | 15.3 | 8.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
58 | 129 | Wythenshawe and Sale East | Mike Kane | 77,765 | 50.3 | 11.4 | 34.5 | 8.9 | 30.9 | 11.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | LAB | LAB |
59 | 128 | Stretford and Urmston | Andrew Western | 75,153 | 61.2 | 9.2 | 32.1 | 10.0 | 28.0 | 12.1 | 8.2 | 0.3 | LAB | LAB |
59 | 127 | St Helens North | David Baines | 75,483 | 53.6 | 7.3 | 30.1 | 8.0 | 43.3 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | LAB | Reform |
59 | 127 | St Helens South and Whiston | Marie Rimmer | 71,569 | 53.1 | 5.9 | 28.7 | 9.6 | 40.4 | 9.7 | 0.0 | 5.7 | LAB | Reform |
61 | 125 | Whitehaven and Workington | Josh MacAlister | 73,198 | 57.2 | 12.2 | 34.7 | 6.8 | 39.8 | 5.8 | 0.0 | 0.7 | LAB | Reform |
62 | 125 | Runcorn and Helsby | Mike Amesbury | 71,955 | 58.7 | 13.0 | 35.1 | 8.4 | 33.8 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 1.6 | LAB | LAB |
62 | 124 | Blackley and Middleton South | Graham Stringer | 72,097 | 43.5 | 6.1 | 28.0 | 9.5 | 42.8 | 12.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | LAB | Reform |
65 | 121 | Leigh and Atherton | Jo Platt | 79,761 | 51.6 | 10.1 | 31.6 | 7.3 | 43.2 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 1.2 | LAB | Reform |
69 | 117 | Wigan | Lisa Nandy | 77,537 | 52.7 | 8.9 | 29.7 | 7.6 | 42.0 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 5.2 | LAB | Reform |
72 | 114 | Blackpool South | Chris Webb | 77,459 | 45.4 | 9.1 | 29.2 | 6.5 | 47.0 | 6.9 | 0.0 | 1.3 | LAB | Reform |
76 | 110 | Makerfield | Josh Simons | 76,845 | 52.4 | 9.1 | 28.4 | 8.1 | 47.1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | LAB | Reform |
78 | 108 | Worsley and Eccles | Michael Wheeler | 78,643 | 54.1 | 12.7 | 31.8 | 7.8 | 36.5 | 8.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | LAB | Reform |
84 | 103 | Lancashire West | Ashley Dalton | 74,083 | 59.7 | 15.8 | 34.0 | 8.0 | 33.0 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 | LAB | LAB |
87 | 99 | Warrington North | Charlotte Nichols | 70,601 | 56.7 | 12.8 | 30.7 | 8.9 | 39.5 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 1.6 | LAB | Reform |
89 | 98 | Warrington South | Sarah Edith Hall | 78,399 | 63.4 | 16.4 | 34.1 | 11.2 | 29.9 | 7.3 | 0.0 | 1.1 | LAB | LAB |
89 | 97 | Ashton-under-Lyne | Angela Rayner | 71,002 | 49.9 | 9.3 | 27.0 | 6.9 | 41.3 | 8.2 | 7.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
91 | 96 | Chester North and Neston | Samantha Dixon | 70,215 | 63.7 | 18.2 | 35.5 | 8.5 | 26.8 | 10.1 | 0.0 | 0.8 | LAB | LAB |
92 | 94 | Bury South | Christian Wakeford | 75,339 | 56.0 | 14.7 | 31.8 | 8.8 | 32.6 | 8.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | LAB | Reform |
96 | 91 | Wirral West | Matthew Patrick | 72,838 | 68.6 | 18.9 | 35.6 | 10.6 | 25.2 | 9.1 | 0.0 | 0.6 | LAB | LAB |
99 | 87 | Cheshire Mid | Andrew Graham Cooper | 70,384 | 59.0 | 15.1 | 31.6 | 9.3 | 34.9 | 7.2 | 0.0 | 1.8 | LAB | Reform |
100 | 87 | Lancaster and Wyre | Cat Smith | 74,760 | 57.5 | 15.6 | 31.9 | 7.9 | 30.8 | 13.1 | 0.0 | 0.7 | LAB | LAB |
104 | 82 | Crewe and Nantwich | Connor Naismith | 78,423 | 60.2 | 15.0 | 30.6 | 8.2 | 36.9 | 7.1 | 0.9 | 1.2 | LAB | Reform |
107 | 79 | Bolton South and Walkden | Yasmin Qureshi | 79,622 | 46.4 | 8.7 | 23.8 | 7.2 | 40.7 | 9.1 | 10.1 | 0.6 | LAB | Reform |
108 | 79 | Macclesfield | Tim Roca | 76,416 | 69.1 | 20.5 | 35.6 | 9.3 | 26.0 | 7.2 | 0.0 | 1.4 | LAB | LAB |
108 | 78 | Stalybridge and Hyde | Jonathan Reynolds | 72,265 | 51.5 | 13.3 | 28.4 | 6.7 | 38.0 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 1.9 | LAB | Reform |
118 | 68 | Bury North | James Frith | 77,703 | 58.6 | 17.6 | 30.1 | 7.7 | 33.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.0 | LAB | Reform |
118 | 68 | Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton | Jim McMahon | 73,178 | 52.7 | 8.4 | 20.9 | 7.3 | 36.5 | 7.2 | 16.2 | 3.5 | LAB | Reform |
118 | 68 | Heywood and Middleton North | Elsie Jane Blundell | 74,786 | 49.6 | 12.5 | 24.9 | 9.2 | 43.0 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 5.9 | LAB | Reform |
118 | 68 | Southport | Patrick Brian Hurley | 73,641 | 61.2 | 16.4 | 28.5 | 13.5 | 33.1 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | LAB | Reform |
118 | 68 | Rochdale | Paul Waugh | 71,264 | 55.7 | 8.7 | 20.8 | 9.1 | 33.2 | 5.8 | 22.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
120 | 66 | Preston | Mark Hendrick | 77,400 | 51.7 | 9.9 | 21.3 | 9.6 | 32.7 | 7.4 | 17.5 | 1.6 | LAB | Reform |
121 | 65 | Bolton North East | Kirith Entwistle | 80,011 | 54.2 | 13.5 | 24.4 | 7.7 | 39.1 | 11.3 | 3.2 | 0.8 | LAB | Reform |
123 | 63 | Oldham East and Saddleworth | Debbie Abrahams | 72,760 | 55.1 | 12.9 | 22.5 | 10.2 | 36.6 | 6.2 | 9.4 | 2.3 | LAB | Reform |
125 | 62 | Altrincham and Sale West | Connor Rand | 74,025 | 69.5 | 23.1 | 32.4 | 13.2 | 20.8 | 8.7 | 1.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
125 | 61 | Blackburn | Adnan Hussain | 73,259 | 53.1 | 5.8 | 14.6 | 7.7 | 35.7 | 7.9 | 18.8 | 9.5 | MIN | Reform |
133 | 53 | Burnley | Oliver Ryan | 74,951 | 53.0 | 13.7 | 19.8 | 17.5 | 41.2 | 6.2 | 0.0 | 1.6 | LAB | Reform |
134 | 52 | Hazel Grove | Lisa Smart | 72,843 | 63.1 | 14.1 | 19.9 | 29.9 | 29.3 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | LIB | LIB |
135 | 51 | Hyndburn | Sarah Smith | 76,126 | 47.8 | 15.8 | 21.4 | 6.9 | 42.7 | 12.5 | 0.0 | 0.7 | LAB | Reform |
136 | 50 | South Ribble | Paul Andrew Foster | 73,420 | 63.6 | 22.5 | 27.6 | 9.9 | 32.2 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 0.9 | LAB | Reform |
137 | 49 | Morecambe and Lunesdale | Lizzi Collinge | 76,424 | 62.9 | 22.2 | 26.5 | 12.9 | 29.7 | 7.6 | 0.0 | 1.0 | LAB | Reform |
137 | 49 | Rossendale and Darwen | Andy MacNae | 74,440 | 59.9 | 21.0 | 25.2 | 7.1 | 35.5 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
137 | 49 | Penrith and Solway | Markus Campbell-Savours | 77,935 | 63.2 | 22.7 | 26.8 | 11.8 | 30.4 | 6.9 | 0.0 | 1.4 | LAB | Reform |
137 | 49 | Barrow and Furness | Michelle Scrogham | 74,980 | 56.3 | 22.7 | 26.9 | 8.3 | 33.4 | 7.4 | 0.0 | 1.3 | LAB | Reform |
140 | 46 | Bolton West | Phil Brickell | 74,933 | 59.5 | 21.5 | 24.8 | 9.1 | 32.1 | 11.2 | 0.0 | 1.2 | LAB | Reform |
141 | 45 | Blackpool North and Fleetwood | Lorraine Beavers | 73,339 | 57.0 | 20.7 | 24.0 | 7.2 | 39.8 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 1.6 | LAB | Reform |
141 | 45 | Carlisle | Julie Minns | 77,863 | 59.1 | 20.7 | 23.7 | 9.6 | 36.3 | 7.9 | 0.0 | 1.8 | LAB | Reform |
143 | 43 | Congleton | Sarah Alison Russell | 74,243 | 67.5 | 23.0 | 25.0 | 10.9 | 30.5 | 7.2 | 0.0 | 3.5 | LAB | Reform |
145 | 41 | Cheadle | Tom Morrison | 74,383 | 68.2 | 16.8 | 15.9 | 37.8 | 22.0 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.2 | LIB | LIB |
146 | 40 | Ribble Valley | Maya Ellis | 80,484 | 64.6 | 24.4 | 22.5 | 13.2 | 31.5 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 2.0 | LAB | Reform |
146 | 40 | Pendle and Clitheroe | Jonathan James Hinder | 78,796 | 59.3 | 23.3 | 21.1 | 8.7 | 34.9 | 7.2 | 0.7 | 4.1 | LAB | Reform |
148 | 38 | Fylde | Andrew Snowden | 77,100 | 62.2 | 23.9 | 20.6 | 9.7 | 33.9 | 6.4 | 0.0 | 5.4 | CON | Reform |
152 | 35 | Tatton | Esther McVey | 75,978 | 68.3 | 31.2 | 26.6 | 12.5 | 21.5 | 7.4 | 0.0 | 0.7 | CON | CON |
155 | 31 | Westmorland and Lonsdale | Tim Farron | 72,029 | 68.8 | 14.5 | 8.7 | 45.3 | 25.6 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 | LIB | LIB |
158 | 29 | Chester South and Eddisbury | Aphra Brandreth | 74,284 | 70.7 | 30.5 | 23.4 | 13.2 | 23.7 | 7.1 | 0.0 | 2.2 | CON | CON |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.