North West: Majority Sorted Seats

North West Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 37.5%32 20.1%031-311
LAB 47.3%42 55.4%300+3072
LIB 7.9%1 5.7%10+12
Reform 3.9%0 11.3%00+00
Green 2.5%0 6.2%00+00
Other 1.1%0 1.4%00+00

This page shows all the seats in North West sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Liverpool Walton, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Westmorland and Lonsdale, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Ribble South (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Copeland (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of North West seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
2578Liverpool Walton Dan Carden62,62865.14.781.
3577Manchester Gorton Afzal Khan76,41958.34.480.
5575Liverpool Riverside Kim Johnson80,31065.74.476.
6574Bootle Peter Dowd74,83265.75.777.
8572Liverpool West Derby Ian Byrne65,64067.05.877.
11569Knowsley George Howarth84,08265.
14566Manchester Central Lucy Powell92,24756.75.775.
25555Manchester Withington Jeff Smith76,53069.
26554Liverpool Wavertree Paula Barker63,45868.46.569.
27553Chorley Lindsay Hoyle78,17751.06.869.
28552Garston and Halewood Maria Eagle76,11670.17.570.24.910.
30550Blackley and Broughton Graham Stringer73,37252.69.371.
42538Blackburn Kate Hollern71,23462.813.
45535Halton Derek Twigg71,93064.211.667.92.810.
49531Wallasey Angela Eagle66,31070.112.768.
50530Preston Mark Hendrick59,67256.612.668.
55525Salford and Eccles Rebecca Long-Bailey82,20261.611.766.
65515Birkenhead Mick Whitley63,76266.47.959.04.213.811.30.03.9LABLAB
66514Stretford and Urmston Kate Green72,37269.215.766.
69511St Helens South and Whiston Marie Rimmer79,06163.610.660.74.313.
78502Oldham West and Royton Jim McMahon72,99960.915.564.42.411.
87493Bolton South East Yasmin Qureshi69,16358.715.663.02.512.
91489Wythenshawe and Sale East Mike Kane76,31358.714.961.13.311.
97483St Helens North Conor McGinn75,59362.913.959.13.913.
99481Sefton Central Bill Esterson69,76072.916.861.73.910.
101479Denton and Reddish Andrew Gwynne66,23458.315.960.62.912.
111469Rochdale Tony Lloyd78,90960.
114466Ashton under Lyne Angela Rayner67,97856.817.360.42.612.
118462Stockport Navendu Mishra65,39163.814.657.
129451Wigan Lisa Nandy75,68059.517.258.63.313.
146434Makerfield Yvonne Fovargue74,19059.717.756.93.314.
148432Stalybridge and Hyde Jonathan Reynolds73,06458.
149431Ellesmere Port and Neston Justin Madders70,32769.318.657.53.611.
156424Worsley and Eccles South Barbara Keeley75,21959.419.557.
177403Lancashire West Rosie Cooper73,34771.823.
182398Chester, City of Chris Matheson76,05771.722.
189391Warrington North Charlotte Nichols72,23564.621.455.93.811.
190390Bury South Christian Wakeford75,15266.921.055.33.312.
191389Lancaster and Fleetwood Cat Smith70,05964.519.152.94.312.
194386Leigh James Grundy77,41760.721.954.63.313.
195385Wirral South Alison McGovern57,28076.021.354.04.511.
200380Heywood and Middleton Chris Clarkson80,16259.
216364Bury North James Daly68,80268.124.655.
219361Bolton North East Mark Logan67,56464.524.755.
222358Oldham East and Saddleworth Debbie Abrahams72,12064.021.751.75.314.
224356Wirral West Margaret Greenwood55,55077.324.654.44.510.
225355Weaver Vale Mike Amesbury70,55171.923.553.34.511.
228352Hyndburn Sara Britcliffe70,84259.924.553.
231349Blackpool South Scott Benton57,69056.824.653.42.812.
244336Workington Mark Jenkinson61,37067.824.150.74.614.
245335Warrington South Andy Carter86,01572.024.551.05.512.
251329Barrow and Furness Simon Fell70,15865.625.851.63.912.
253327Copeland Trudy Harrison61,69368.926.352.13.711.
266314Burnley Antony Higginbotham64,34560.622.046.36.316.
276304Pendle Andrew Stephenson65,28968.126.649.
281299Bolton West Chris Green73,19167.426.248.94.712.
282298Carlisle John Stevenson65,10565.926.549.24.612.
283297Morecambe and Lunesdale David Morris67,39767.225.648.
293287Rossendale and Darwen Jake Berry72,77067.128.449.83.411.
296284Crewe and Nantwich Kieran Mullan80,32167.328.649.93.411.
312268Blackpool North and Cleveleys Paul Maynard63,69260.930.148.73.311.
327253Ribble South Katherine Fletcher75,35171.430.446.64.811.
330250Southport Damien Moore70,83768.
339241Altrincham and Sale West Graham Brady73,10774.928.442.
347233Macclesfield David Rutley76,21670.731.243.95.411.
386194Eddisbury Edward Timpson73,70071.932.938.
393187Congleton Fiona Bruce80,93070.734.138.87.312.
396184Wyre and Preston North Ben Wallace74,77570.835.039.35.312.
398182Ribble Valley Nigel Evans79,24769.835.139.26.312.
399181Fylde Mark Menzies66,84769.834.338.25.913.
409171Penrith and The Border Neil Hudson67,55570.831.834.811.414.
410170Tatton Esther McVey69,01870.932.735.710.
452128Hazel Grove William Wragg63,34669.927.726.527.312.
455124Cheadle Mary Robinson74,57775.027.025.429.
54534Westmorland and Lonsdale Tim Farron67,78977.824.913.944.312.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.