Constituency List: England L-Q

Islington South and Finsbury

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Emily Thornberry (LAB)
County/Area:	Islington (London)
Electorate:	74,122
Turnout:	57.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,946	53.7%	41.2%
Green	7,491	17.5%	22.4%
LIB	4,045	9.5%	13.1%
CON	3,584	8.4%	10.4%
Reform	3,388	7.9%	11.7%
OTH	1,300	3.0%	1.2%
LAB Majority	15,455	36.1%	18.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

91%

Green

LIB

CON

Reform

OTH

Jarrow and Gateshead East

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Kate Osborne (LAB)
County/Area:	Newcastle area (North East)
Electorate:	70,272
Turnout:	52.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,856	51.3%	34.0%
Reform	9,892	26.9%	34.7%
CON	3,354	9.1%	12.2%
Green	2,384	6.5%	9.1%
LIB	1,740	4.7%	9.0%
OTH	502	1.4%	1.0%
LAB Majority	8,964	24.4%	0.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

48%

Reform

51%

CON

Green

LIB

OTH

Keighley and Ilkley

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Robbie Moore (CON)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	74,367
Turnout:	62.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,589	40.3%	33.0%
LAB	16,964	36.7%	25.7%
Reform	4,782	10.4%	25.6%
Green	2,447	5.3%	7.0%
OTH	2,425	5.3%	1.4%
LIB	970	2.1%	7.4%
CON Majority	1,625	3.5%	7.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

56%

LAB

20%

Reform

23%

Green

OTH

LIB

Kenilworth and Southam

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Jeremy Wright (CON)
County/Area:	Warwickshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	74,923
Turnout:	71.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,395	36.4%	32.0%
LAB	12,821	24.0%	20.5%
LIB	10,464	19.6%	17.8%
Reform	6,920	13.0%	21.8%
Green	3,125	5.9%	7.5%
OTH	595	1.1%	0.4%
CON Majority	6,574	12.3%	10.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

65%

LAB

13%

LIB

Reform

17%

Green

OTH

Kensington and Bayswater

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Joe Powell (LAB)
County/Area:	Kensington and Chelsea (London)
Electorate:	77,306
Turnout:	54.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,025	40.6%	32.0%
CON	14,122	33.7%	27.5%
LIB	2,910	6.9%	11.2%
Green	2,732	6.5%	10.9%
Reform	2,514	6.0%	13.3%
MIN	1,824	4.4%	4.5%
OTH	781	1.9%	0.6%
LAB Majority	2,903	6.9%	4.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

62%

CON

34%

LIB

Green

Reform

MIN

OTH

Kettering

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Rosie Wrighting (LAB)
County/Area:	Northamptonshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	79,390
Turnout:	63.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,009	35.9%	21.7%
CON	14,189	28.2%	25.6%
Reform	8,468	16.9%	30.1%
Green	7,004	13.9%	14.3%
LIB	1,357	2.7%	7.5%
OTH	1,204	2.4%	0.8%
LAB Majority	3,820	7.6%	4.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

16%

CON

28%

Reform

53%

Green

LIB

OTH

Kingston and Surbiton

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Ed Davey (LIB)
County/Area:	Kingston upon Thames (London)
Electorate:	77,340
Turnout:	65.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	25,870	51.1%	37.6%
CON	8,635	17.0%	19.6%
LAB	6,561	13.0%	17.8%
Reform	4,787	9.4%	13.9%
Green	3,009	5.9%	9.2%
OTH	1,407	2.8%	1.0%
MIN	395	0.8%	1.0%
LIB Majority	17,235	34.0%	18.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

85%

CON

LAB

Reform

Green

OTH

MIN

Kingswinford and South Staffordshire

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Mike Wood (CON)
County/Area:	Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	71,662
Turnout:	63.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,199	40.3%	35.7%
LAB	11,896	26.3%	18.7%
Reform	9,928	22.0%	30.3%
LIB	2,080	4.6%	8.0%
Green	2,077	4.6%	6.5%
OTH	1,000	2.2%	0.8%
CON Majority	6,303	14.0%	5.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

61%

LAB

Reform

36%

LIB

Green

OTH

Knowsley

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Anneliese Midgley (LAB)
County/Area:	Merseyside (North West)
Electorate:	72,087
Turnout:	50.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	24,243	67.3%	43.3%
Reform	5,924	16.4%	25.3%
Green	2,772	7.7%	11.4%
CON	1,496	4.2%	9.2%
LIB	1,232	3.4%	8.3%
MIN	245	0.7%	2.0%
OTH	135	0.4%	0.3%
LAB Majority	18,319	50.8%	18.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

89%

Reform

11%

Green

CON

LIB

MIN

OTH

Lancashire West

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Ashley Dalton (LAB)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	74,083
Turnout:	59.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,305	50.5%	34.9%
CON	8,680	19.6%	19.3%
Reform	7,909	17.9%	27.8%
Green	3,263	7.4%	8.2%
LIB	2,043	4.6%	9.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.7%
LAB Majority	13,625	30.8%	7.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

66%

CON

Reform

28%

Green

LIB

OTH

Lancaster and Wyre

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Cat Smith (LAB)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	74,760
Turnout:	57.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,315	44.9%	29.0%
CON	10,062	23.4%	20.3%
Reform	6,866	16.0%	29.8%
Green	5,236	12.2%	12.3%
LIB	1,529	3.6%	8.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
LAB Majority	9,253	21.5%	0.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

44%

CON

10%

Reform

45%

Green

LIB

OTH

Leeds Central and Headingley

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Alex Sobel (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	70,554
Turnout:	44.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,853	50.2%	33.5%
Green	7,431	23.5%	24.8%
LIB	2,611	8.3%	12.0%
Reform	2,399	7.6%	15.7%
CON	2,237	7.1%	10.8%
MIN	691	2.2%	2.8%
OTH	373	1.2%	0.4%
LAB Majority	8,422	26.7%	8.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

74%

Green

20%

LIB

Reform

CON

MIN

OTH

Leeds East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Richard Burgon (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	76,207
Turnout:	51.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,610	47.2%	32.2%
Reform	7,345	18.6%	29.7%
CON	6,898	17.5%	18.7%
Green	3,506	8.9%	9.3%
OTH	1,584	4.0%	1.5%
LIB	1,445	3.7%	8.6%
LAB Majority	11,265	28.6%	2.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

52%

Reform

41%

CON

Green

OTH

LIB

Leeds North East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Fabian Hamilton (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	70,178
Turnout:	64.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,260	51.5%	38.4%
CON	7,177	15.9%	16.4%
Green	5,911	13.1%	15.9%
Reform	3,426	7.6%	14.3%
LIB	2,168	4.8%	9.6%
MIN	2,067	4.6%	4.6%
OTH	1,158	2.6%	0.8%
LAB Majority	16,083	35.6%	22.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

91%

CON

Green

Reform

LIB

MIN

OTH

Leeds North West

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Katie White (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	71,592
Turnout:	69.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,882	46.0%	33.1%
CON	10,986	22.1%	21.5%
Reform	5,935	11.9%	21.5%
LIB	5,641	11.3%	13.8%
Green	3,231	6.5%	9.1%
OTH	1,102	2.2%	1.0%
LAB Majority	11,896	23.9%	11.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

69%

CON

14%

Reform

15%

LIB

Green

OTH

Leeds South

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Hilary Benn (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	75,953
Turnout:	41.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,117	54.0%	34.5%
Green	5,838	18.4%	18.2%
CON	4,172	13.2%	14.8%
OTH	2,492	7.9%	2.0%
LIB	1,340	4.2%	9.8%
MIN	719	2.3%	1.9%
Reform	0	0.0%	18.8%
LAB Majority	11,279	35.6%	15.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

76%

Green

CON

OTH

LIB

MIN

Reform

12%

Leeds South West and Morley

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Mark Sewards (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	71,854
Turnout:	56.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,681	44.0%	28.3%
CON	9,258	23.0%	22.0%
Reform	8,187	20.4%	32.5%
Green	2,522	6.3%	8.0%
LIB	1,798	4.5%	8.3%
OTH	763	1.9%	0.9%
LAB Majority	8,423	20.9%	4.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

32%

CON

10%

Reform

58%

Green

LIB

OTH

Leeds West and Pudsey

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Rachel Reeves (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	70,069
Turnout:	54.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,976	49.3%	33.4%
CON	6,584	17.1%	18.4%
Reform	6,281	16.3%	25.9%
Green	3,794	9.9%	10.6%
LIB	1,743	4.5%	8.6%
MIN	633	1.6%	2.5%
OTH	483	1.3%	0.6%
LAB Majority	12,392	32.2%	7.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

67%

CON

Reform

26%

Green

LIB

MIN

OTH

Leicester East

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Shivani Raja (CON)
County/Area:	Leicestershire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	76,560
Turnout:	61.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	14,526	31.1%	32.7%
LAB	10,100	21.6%	20.0%
LIB	6,329	13.5%	14.0%
MIN	5,532	11.8%	8.4%
OTH	5,473	11.7%	2.5%
Reform	2,611	5.6%	16.4%
Green	2,143	4.6%	6.0%
CON Majority	4,426	9.5%	12.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

73%

LAB

14%

LIB

MIN

OTH

Reform

Green

Leicester South

Prediction: MIN hold

MP at 2024:	Shockat Adam (MIN)
County/Area:	Leicestershire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	70,867
Turnout:	59.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
MIN	14,739	35.2%	26.6%
LAB	13,760	32.9%	24.5%
CON	4,820	11.5%	15.1%
Green	3,826	9.1%	12.3%
Reform	2,470	5.9%	14.5%
LIB	1,425	3.4%	7.0%
OTH	797	1.9%	0.0%
MIN Majority	979	2.3%	2.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

MIN

30%

LAB

46%

CON

11%

Green

Reform

LIB

OTH

Leicester West

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Liz Kendall (LAB)
County/Area:	Leicestershire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	74,102
Turnout:	47.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,798	44.6%	29.6%
CON	7,021	19.8%	19.9%
Reform	5,666	16.0%	28.2%
Green	4,089	11.6%	11.7%
LIB	2,179	6.2%	9.6%
OTH	644	1.8%	1.1%
LAB Majority	8,777	24.8%	1.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

45%

CON

12%

Reform

42%

Green

LIB

OTH

Leicestershire Mid

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Peter Bedford (CON)
County/Area:	Leicestershire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	75,933
Turnout:	63.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,735	36.9%	32.2%
LAB	15,534	32.3%	19.7%
Reform	8,923	18.6%	30.7%
Green	3,414	7.1%	8.7%
LIB	2,444	5.1%	8.4%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	2,201	4.6%	1.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

51%

LAB

Reform

43%

Green

LIB

OTH

Leicestershire North West

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Amanda Hack (LAB)
County/Area:	Leicestershire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	77,757
Turnout:	62.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,871	34.7%	21.4%
CON	15,859	32.7%	28.0%
Reform	9,678	19.9%	33.9%
Green	2,831	5.8%	7.8%
OTH	1,704	3.5%	1.0%
LIB	1,629	3.4%	8.0%
LAB Majority	1,012	2.1%	5.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

29%

Reform

61%

Green

OTH

LIB

Leicestershire South

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Alberto Costa (CON)
County/Area:	Leicestershire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	78,543
Turnout:	65.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,264	35.6%	30.1%
LAB	12,758	24.8%	16.3%
Reform	10,235	19.9%	32.6%
LIB	7,621	14.8%	14.0%
Green	2,481	4.8%	6.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	5,506	10.7%	2.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

41%

LAB

Reform

54%

LIB

Green

OTH

Leigh and Atherton

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Jo Platt (LAB)
County/Area:	Western Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	79,761
Turnout:	51.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,971	48.5%	29.0%
Reform	11,090	26.9%	38.3%
CON	6,483	15.7%	17.5%
Green	1,653	4.0%	6.5%
LIB	1,597	3.9%	7.8%
OTH	376	0.9%	0.8%
LAB Majority	8,881	21.6%	9.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

24%

Reform

73%

CON

Green

LIB

OTH

Lewes

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	James MacCleary (LIB)
County/Area:	East Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	76,166
Turnout:	69.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	26,895	50.6%	35.9%
CON	14,271	26.8%	25.7%
Reform	6,335	11.9%	20.6%
LAB	3,574	6.7%	11.3%
Green	1,869	3.5%	5.9%
OTH	229	0.4%	0.5%
LIB Majority	12,624	23.7%	10.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

72%

CON

19%

Reform

LAB

Green

OTH

Lewisham East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Janet Daby (LAB)
County/Area:	Lewisham (London)
Electorate:	73,376
Turnout:	55.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,646	58.2%	43.4%
Green	5,573	13.7%	17.0%
CON	4,401	10.8%	12.5%
Reform	3,469	8.5%	15.2%
LIB	2,471	6.1%	9.3%
MIN	577	1.4%	2.1%
OTH	500	1.2%	0.5%
LAB Majority	18,073	44.5%	26.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

96%

Green

CON

Reform

LIB

MIN

OTH

Lewisham North

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Vicky Foxcroft (LAB)
County/Area:	Lewisham (London)
Electorate:	74,204
Turnout:	59.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	25,467	57.7%	44.1%
Green	9,685	21.9%	25.7%
LIB	3,284	7.4%	10.6%
CON	2,701	6.1%	8.5%
Reform	2,000	4.5%	9.0%
OTH	573	1.3%	0.6%
MIN	457	1.0%	1.5%
LAB Majority	15,782	35.7%	18.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

90%

Green

10%

LIB

CON

Reform

OTH

MIN

Lewisham West and East Dulwich

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Ellie Reeves (LAB)
County/Area:	Lewisham (London)
Electorate:	70,099
Turnout:	66.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	27,406	59.0%	46.4%
Green	9,009	19.4%	23.3%
LIB	3,558	7.7%	10.6%
CON	3,477	7.5%	9.2%
Reform	2,234	4.8%	8.4%
MIN	427	0.9%	1.7%
OTH	303	0.7%	0.4%
LAB Majority	18,397	39.6%	23.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

95%

Green

LIB

CON

Reform

MIN

OTH

Leyton and Wanstead

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Calvin Bailey (LAB)
County/Area:	Waltham Forest (London)
Electorate:	73,366
Turnout:	59.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,755	47.5%	40.0%
Green	6,791	15.5%	18.8%
CON	4,846	11.1%	13.5%
OTH	4,417	10.1%	2.5%
LIB	2,815	6.4%	11.3%
Reform	2,475	5.7%	10.8%
MIN	1,633	3.7%	3.1%
LAB Majority	13,964	31.9%	21.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

88%

Green

CON

OTH

LIB

Reform

MIN

Lichfield

Prediction: CON gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Dave Robertson (LAB)
County/Area:	Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	76,118
Turnout:	64.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,232	35.1%	23.8%
CON	16,422	33.4%	30.4%
Reform	9,734	19.8%	28.4%
LIB	3,572	7.3%	10.3%
Green	1,724	3.5%	6.6%
OTH	420	0.9%	0.5%
LAB Majority	810	1.6%	2.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

17%

CON

47%

Reform

36%

LIB

Green

OTH

Lincoln

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Hamish Falconer (LAB)
County/Area:	Lincolnshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	72,313
Turnout:	58.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,470	43.8%	27.7%
CON	9,677	23.0%	20.6%
Reform	7,602	18.0%	31.6%
Green	2,751	6.5%	8.8%
LIB	2,580	6.1%	9.2%
OTH	601	1.4%	0.6%
MIN	479	1.1%	1.5%
LAB Majority	8,793	20.9%	4.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

35%

CON

11%

Reform

54%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Liverpool Garston

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Maria Eagle (LAB)
County/Area:	Merseyside (North West)
Electorate:	69,282
Turnout:	60.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	24,510	58.4%	44.0%
Reform	4,406	10.5%	17.8%
OTH	4,079	9.7%	2.8%
LIB	3,239	7.7%	13.3%
CON	2,943	7.0%	11.1%
Green	2,816	6.7%	11.0%
LAB Majority	20,104	47.9%	26.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

94%

Reform

OTH

LIB

CON

Green

Liverpool Riverside

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Kim Johnson (LAB)
County/Area:	Merseyside (North West)
Electorate:	71,380
Turnout:	45.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,039	61.9%	40.1%
Green	5,246	16.2%	20.3%
Reform	3,272	10.1%	18.8%
LIB	1,544	4.8%	11.0%
CON	1,155	3.6%	8.4%
OTH	1,125	3.5%	1.4%
LAB Majority	14,793	45.7%	19.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

88%

Green

Reform

LIB

CON

OTH

Liverpool Walton

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Dan Carden (LAB)
County/Area:	Merseyside (North West)
Electorate:	69,317
Turnout:	53.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	26,032	70.6%	46.8%
Reform	5,787	15.7%	24.1%
Green	2,388	6.5%	11.0%
CON	1,282	3.5%	8.6%
LIB	945	2.6%	8.5%
OTH	452	1.2%	1.0%
LAB Majority	20,245	54.9%	22.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

93%

Reform

Green

CON

LIB

OTH

Liverpool Wavertree

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Paula Barker (LAB)
County/Area:	Merseyside (North West)
Electorate:	70,581
Turnout:	56.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,077	58.0%	42.1%
Green	6,773	17.0%	20.1%
Reform	3,454	8.7%	15.1%
LIB	2,759	6.9%	12.1%
CON	1,887	4.7%	9.1%
OTH	1,865	4.7%	1.7%
LAB Majority	16,304	40.9%	22.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

92%

Green

Reform

LIB

CON

OTH

Liverpool West Derby

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Ian Byrne (LAB)
County/Area:	Merseyside (North West)
Electorate:	69,934
Turnout:	54.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	25,302	66.6%	46.4%
Reform	4,879	12.8%	21.5%
Green	2,647	7.0%	11.1%
OTH	2,336	6.1%	2.0%
CON	1,566	4.1%	9.3%
LIB	1,276	3.4%	9.8%
LAB Majority	20,423	53.7%	24.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

95%

Reform

Green

OTH

CON

LIB

Loughborough

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Jeevun Sandher (LAB)
County/Area:	Leicestershire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	68,996
Turnout:	61.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,249	40.8%	27.4%
CON	12,289	29.1%	25.3%
Reform	7,204	17.0%	28.6%
Green	2,956	7.0%	8.9%
LIB	2,561	6.1%	9.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
LAB Majority	4,960	11.7%	1.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

33%

CON

25%

Reform

42%

Green

LIB

OTH

Louth and Horncastle

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Victoria Atkins (CON)
County/Area:	Lincolnshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	76,882
Turnout:	60.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,441	37.5%	29.2%
Reform	11,935	25.7%	41.3%
LAB	10,475	22.5%	14.3%
Green	2,504	5.4%	6.0%
LIB	2,364	5.1%	8.2%
OTH	1,760	3.8%	1.0%
CON Majority	5,506	11.8%	12.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

19%

Reform

80%

LAB

Green

LIB

OTH

Lowestoft

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Jessica Asato (LAB)
County/Area:	Suffolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	74,332
Turnout:	56.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,464	34.6%	21.8%
CON	12,448	29.8%	28.1%
Reform	10,328	24.7%	33.0%
Green	3,095	7.4%	9.2%
LIB	1,489	3.6%	7.4%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
LAB Majority	2,016	4.8%	4.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

11%

CON

31%

Reform

58%

Green

LIB

OTH

Luton North

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Sarah Owen (LAB)
County/Area:	Bedfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	74,866
Turnout:	51.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,677	37.9%	30.9%
CON	7,167	18.5%	22.5%
Reform	4,666	12.0%	20.1%
MIN	4,393	11.3%	8.2%
OTH	4,012	10.4%	2.3%
Green	1,940	5.0%	6.8%
LIB	1,890	4.9%	9.2%
LAB Majority	7,510	19.4%	8.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

58%

CON

23%

Reform

17%

MIN

OTH

Green

LIB

Luton South and South Bedfordshire

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Rachel Hopkins (LAB)
County/Area:	Bedfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	76,970
Turnout:	49.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	13,593	35.4%	28.6%
CON	6,735	17.5%	20.7%
MIN	5,384	14.0%	9.9%
Reform	4,759	12.4%	21.3%
OTH	3,110	8.1%	1.7%
Green	2,401	6.3%	8.1%
LIB	2,400	6.3%	9.7%
LAB Majority	6,858	17.9%	7.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

52%

CON

24%

MIN

Reform

21%

OTH

Green

LIB

Macclesfield

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Tim Roca (LAB)
County/Area:	Cheshire (North West)
Electorate:	76,416
Turnout:	69.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	24,672	46.7%	32.5%
CON	15,552	29.5%	26.1%
Reform	6,592	12.5%	23.7%
Green	2,493	4.7%	7.4%
LIB	2,482	4.7%	9.3%
OTH	1,001	1.9%	0.9%
LAB Majority	9,120	17.3%	6.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

56%

CON

25%

Reform

18%

Green

LIB

OTH

Maidenhead

Prediction: CON gain from LIB

MP at 2024:	Joshua Peter Reynolds (LIB)
County/Area:	Berkshire (South East)
Electorate:	75,687
Turnout:	66.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	21,895	43.5%	31.2%
CON	18,932	37.6%	35.4%
LAB	5,766	11.5%	14.3%
Green	1,996	4.0%	7.0%
OTH	1,740	3.5%	0.8%
Reform	0	0.0%	11.3%
LIB Majority	2,963	5.9%	4.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

38%

CON

60%

LAB

Green

OTH

Reform

Maidstone and Malling

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Helen Grant (CON)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	76,449
Turnout:	60.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	14,146	30.5%	29.5%
LAB	12,472	26.9%	20.6%
Reform	9,316	20.1%	27.3%
LIB	6,375	13.7%	12.7%
Green	3,727	8.0%	9.5%
OTH	353	0.8%	0.4%
CON Majority	1,674	3.6%	2.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

48%

LAB

12%

Reform

38%

LIB

Green

OTH

Makerfield

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Josh Simons (LAB)
County/Area:	Western Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	76,845
Turnout:	52.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,202	45.2%	30.7%
Reform	12,803	31.8%	37.7%
CON	4,379	10.9%	15.2%
LIB	2,735	6.8%	9.5%
Green	1,776	4.4%	6.0%
OTH	368	0.9%	1.0%
LAB Majority	5,399	13.4%	7.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

31%

Reform

68%

CON

LIB

Green

OTH

Maldon

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	John Whittingdale (CON)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	78,281
Turnout:	63.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,374	38.9%	33.5%
Reform	12,468	25.0%	33.4%
LAB	9,817	19.7%	14.9%
LIB	5,882	11.8%	11.7%
Green	2,300	4.6%	6.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
CON Majority	6,906	13.9%	0.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

49%

Reform

49%

LAB

LIB

Green

OTH

Manchester Central

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Lucy Powell (LAB)
County/Area:	Central Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	85,049
Turnout:	46.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,184	50.8%	33.2%
Green	6,387	16.1%	19.4%
Reform	4,760	12.0%	20.8%
LIB	3,051	7.7%	10.6%
CON	2,823	7.1%	10.7%
MIN	1,888	4.8%	4.9%
OTH	632	1.6%	0.5%
LAB Majority	13,797	34.7%	12.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

75%

Green

Reform

13%

LIB

CON

MIN

OTH

Manchester Rusholme

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Afzal Khan (LAB)
County/Area:	Central Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	72,604
Turnout:	40.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,054	51.9%	33.0%
Green	6,819	23.5%	24.6%
MIN	3,660	12.6%	9.6%
CON	1,678	5.8%	10.4%
Reform	1,313	4.5%	15.3%
OTH	509	1.8%	0.4%
LIB	0	0.0%	6.7%
LAB Majority	8,235	28.4%	8.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

74%

Green

20%

MIN

CON

Reform

OTH

LIB

Manchester Withington

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Jeff Smith (LAB)
County/Area:	Central Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	70,549
Turnout:	59.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,066	52.9%	38.6%
Green	8,084	19.4%	23.3%
LIB	5,412	13.0%	14.8%
CON	2,280	5.5%	8.8%
Reform	1,961	4.7%	9.6%
MIN	1,774	4.3%	4.7%
OTH	154	0.4%	0.1%
LAB Majority	13,982	33.5%	15.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

88%

Green

10%

LIB

CON

Reform

MIN

OTH

Mansfield

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Steve Yemm (LAB)
County/Area:	Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	73,817
Turnout:	55.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,048	39.1%	21.4%
CON	12,563	30.6%	27.0%
Reform	9,385	22.8%	37.7%
Green	1,326	3.2%	6.1%
OTH	966	2.4%	0.9%
LIB	799	1.9%	6.8%
LAB Majority	3,485	8.5%	10.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

21%

Reform

72%

Green

OTH

LIB

Melksham and Devizes

Prediction: CON gain from LIB

MP at 2024:	Brian Mathew (LIB)
County/Area:	Wiltshire (South West)
Electorate:	71,999
Turnout:	71.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	20,031	39.1%	28.7%
CON	17,630	34.4%	31.3%
Reform	6,726	13.1%	22.5%
LAB	4,587	9.0%	11.2%
Green	2,229	4.4%	6.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.2%
LIB Majority	2,401	4.7%	2.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

36%

CON

50%

Reform

13%

LAB

Green

OTH

Melton and Syston

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Edward Argar (CON)
County/Area:	Leicestershire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	74,316
Turnout:	61.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,526	38.1%	32.0%
LAB	12,130	26.4%	16.9%
Reform	8,945	19.5%	32.8%
Green	3,685	8.0%	8.7%
LIB	2,547	5.5%	8.8%
OTH	1,153	2.5%	0.8%
CON Majority	5,396	11.7%	0.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

45%

LAB

Reform

52%

Green

LIB

OTH

Meriden and Solihull East

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Saqib Bhatti (CON)
County/Area:	Coventry and Solihull (West Midlands)
Electorate:	73,659
Turnout:	59.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,792	38.1%	34.3%
LAB	12,208	27.7%	19.0%
Reform	8,753	19.9%	27.7%
LIB	3,353	7.6%	10.1%
Green	2,929	6.7%	8.6%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	4,584	10.4%	6.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

64%

LAB

Reform

29%

LIB

Green

OTH

Middlesbrough and Thornaby East

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Andy McDonald (LAB)
County/Area:	Teesside (North East)
Electorate:	75,123
Turnout:	45.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,238	47.2%	29.0%
Reform	7,046	20.5%	32.1%
CON	6,174	17.9%	19.1%
MIN	2,007	5.8%	5.8%
Green	1,522	4.4%	6.6%
LIB	1,037	3.0%	7.1%
OTH	383	1.1%	0.3%
LAB Majority	9,192	26.7%	3.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

38%

Reform

54%

CON

MIN

Green

LIB

OTH

Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland

Prediction: CON gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Luke Myer (LAB)
County/Area:	Teesside (North East)
Electorate:	70,328
Turnout:	54.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,468	43.3%	26.1%
CON	16,254	42.7%	34.9%
LIB	2,032	5.3%	9.0%
OTH	1,835	4.8%	1.0%
Green	1,446	3.8%	6.1%
Reform	0	0.0%	22.9%
LAB Majority	214	0.6%	8.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

21%

CON

67%

LIB

OTH

Green

Reform

12%

Milton Keynes Central

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Emily Darlington (LAB)
County/Area:	Buckinghamshire (South East)
Electorate:	81,078
Turnout:	58.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,209	42.3%	30.9%
CON	12,918	27.1%	25.5%
Reform	6,245	13.1%	21.7%
LIB	4,931	10.3%	11.6%
Green	3,226	6.8%	9.7%
OTH	200	0.4%	0.6%
LAB Majority	7,291	15.3%	5.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

58%

CON

26%

Reform

14%

LIB

Green

OTH

Milton Keynes North

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Chris Curtis (LAB)
County/Area:	Buckinghamshire (South East)
Electorate:	70,709
Turnout:	65.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,318	42.0%	31.0%
CON	13,888	30.2%	26.7%
Reform	6,164	13.4%	23.1%
LIB	3,365	7.3%	9.7%
Green	3,242	7.1%	9.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
LAB Majority	5,430	11.8%	4.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

53%

CON

30%

Reform

16%

LIB

Green

OTH

Mitcham and Morden

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Siobhain McDonagh (LAB)
County/Area:	Merton (London)
Electorate:	77,272
Turnout:	58.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	25,085	55.4%	41.8%
CON	6,324	14.0%	15.2%
Green	4,635	10.2%	14.1%
Reform	4,135	9.1%	15.3%
LIB	3,622	8.0%	10.2%
MIN	1,091	2.4%	3.1%
OTH	363	0.8%	0.3%
LAB Majority	18,761	41.5%	26.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

95%

CON

Green

Reform

LIB

MIN

OTH

Morecambe and Lunesdale

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Lizzi Collinge (LAB)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	76,424
Turnout:	62.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,603	40.8%	25.8%
CON	13,788	28.7%	25.9%
Reform	7,810	16.3%	29.3%
LIB	4,769	9.9%	12.2%
Green	2,089	4.3%	6.5%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
LAB Majority	5,815	12.1%	3.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

31%

CON

26%

Reform

42%

LIB

Green

OTH

New Forest East

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Julian Lewis (CON)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	70,618
Turnout:	64.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,412	38.5%	33.8%
LAB	8,917	19.7%	15.6%
Reform	7,646	16.9%	26.7%
LIB	7,198	15.9%	15.0%
Green	3,118	6.9%	8.2%
OTH	939	2.1%	0.7%
CON Majority	8,495	18.8%	7.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

66%

LAB

Reform

28%

LIB

Green

OTH

New Forest West

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Desmond Swayne (CON)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	68,644
Turnout:	67.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,412	35.4%	32.2%
LAB	10,812	23.3%	17.7%
LIB	8,186	17.7%	16.6%
Reform	7,577	16.4%	25.1%
Green	2,800	6.0%	7.8%
OTH	550	1.2%	0.6%
CON Majority	5,600	12.1%	7.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

63%

LAB

LIB

Reform

26%

Green

OTH

Newark

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Robert Jenrick (CON)
County/Area:	Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	80,028
Turnout:	66.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,968	39.2%	32.1%
LAB	17,396	32.5%	20.4%
Reform	8,280	15.5%	30.0%
LIB	3,026	5.7%	9.7%
Green	2,345	4.4%	6.7%
OTH	1,294	2.4%	0.8%
MIN	150	0.3%	0.3%
CON Majority	3,572	6.7%	2.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

51%

LAB

Reform

41%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Newbury

Prediction: CON gain from LIB

MP at 2024:	Lee Raymond James Dillon (LIB)
County/Area:	Berkshire (South East)
Electorate:	71,986
Turnout:	68.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	19,645	40.1%	29.0%
CON	17,268	35.3%	32.5%
Reform	5,357	10.9%	20.0%
LAB	3,662	7.5%	10.6%
Green	2,714	5.5%	7.6%
OTH	284	0.6%	0.4%
LIB Majority	2,377	4.9%	3.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

36%

CON

55%

Reform

LAB

Green

OTH

Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Chi Onwurah (LAB)
County/Area:	Newcastle area (North East)
Electorate:	76,969
Turnout:	53.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,875	45.6%	33.9%
Reform	7,815	18.9%	27.0%
OTH	5,263	12.7%	4.0%
CON	4,228	10.2%	13.5%
Green	3,228	7.8%	10.9%
LIB	1,946	4.7%	10.8%
LAB Majority	11,060	26.7%	6.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

61%

Reform

34%

OTH

CON

Green

LIB

Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Mary Glindon (LAB)
County/Area:	Newcastle area (North East)
Electorate:	76,421
Turnout:	55.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,200	50.1%	34.2%
Reform	8,383	19.8%	27.1%
Green	5,257	12.4%	14.6%
CON	3,522	8.3%	11.2%
LIB	2,965	7.0%	10.5%
OTH	564	1.3%	0.7%
MIN	430	1.0%	1.8%
LAB Majority	12,817	30.3%	7.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

66%

Reform

30%

Green

CON

LIB

OTH

MIN

Newcastle upon Tyne North

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Catherine McKinnell (LAB)
County/Area:	Newcastle area (North East)
Electorate:	75,146
Turnout:	64.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	24,440	50.3%	37.0%
CON	6,678	13.7%	15.9%
LIB	5,936	12.2%	14.9%
Reform	5,933	12.2%	19.1%
Green	5,035	10.4%	12.1%
OTH	595	1.2%	0.9%
LAB Majority	17,762	36.5%	17.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

84%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Newcastle-under-Lyme

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Adam Jogee (LAB)
County/Area:	Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	67,839
Turnout:	58.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,992	40.4%	27.1%
CON	10,923	27.6%	27.2%
Reform	8,865	22.4%	30.4%
LIB	1,987	5.0%	8.0%
Green	1,851	4.7%	7.0%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
LAB Majority	5,069	12.8%	3.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

28%

CON

30%

Reform

43%

LIB

Green

OTH

Newton Abbot

Prediction: CON gain from LIB

MP at 2024:	Martin Wrigley (LIB)
County/Area:	Devon (South West)
Electorate:	73,885
Turnout:	65.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	15,201	31.7%	23.8%
CON	12,955	27.0%	27.8%
Reform	8,494	17.7%	25.8%
LAB	7,115	14.8%	15.2%
OTH	2,144	4.5%	1.1%
Green	2,083	4.3%	6.4%
LIB Majority	2,246	4.7%	2.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

24%

CON

40%

Reform

31%

LAB

OTH

Green

Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Alan Strickland (LAB)
County/Area:	Durham (North East)
Electorate:	72,224
Turnout:	55.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,394	46.2%	27.9%
Reform	9,555	24.0%	38.5%
CON	8,195	20.6%	18.3%
Green	1,701	4.3%	6.2%
LIB	1,491	3.7%	7.6%
OTH	264	0.7%	0.4%
MIN	246	0.6%	1.1%
LAB Majority	8,839	22.2%	10.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

22%

Reform

74%

CON

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Norfolk Mid

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	George Freeman (CON)
County/Area:	Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	75,238
Turnout:	61.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,770	36.5%	30.9%
LAB	13,716	29.9%	20.1%
Reform	9,427	20.5%	31.7%
LIB	3,126	6.8%	9.3%
Green	2,858	6.2%	7.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
CON Majority	3,054	6.7%	0.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

44%

LAB

Reform

48%

LIB

Green

OTH

Norfolk North

Prediction: CON gain from LIB

MP at 2024:	Steffan Aquarone (LIB)
County/Area:	Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	71,438
Turnout:	65.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	19,488	41.4%	28.6%
CON	16,903	35.9%	30.7%
Reform	6,368	13.5%	26.9%
LAB	2,878	6.1%	9.1%
Green	1,406	3.0%	4.5%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.2%
LIB Majority	2,585	5.5%	2.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

32%

CON

41%

Reform

26%

LAB

Green

OTH

Norfolk North West

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	James Wild (CON)
County/Area:	Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	74,415
Turnout:	59.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,097	36.1%	30.5%
LAB	11,143	25.0%	16.9%
Reform	8,697	19.5%	32.0%
LIB	6,492	14.6%	13.6%
Green	2,137	4.8%	6.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
CON Majority	4,954	11.1%	1.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

44%

LAB

Reform

51%

LIB

Green

OTH

Norfolk South

Prediction: CON gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Ben Goldsborough (LAB)
County/Area:	Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	74,135
Turnout:	66.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,353	35.0%	26.7%
CON	14,527	29.3%	27.0%
Reform	7,583	15.3%	24.3%
LIB	5,746	11.6%	12.4%
Green	3,987	8.0%	9.2%
OTH	383	0.8%	0.4%
LAB Majority	2,826	5.7%	0.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

36%

CON

37%

Reform

25%

LIB

Green

OTH

Norfolk South West

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Terry Jermy (LAB)
County/Area:	Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	74,724
Turnout:	59.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	11,847	26.7%	17.9%
CON	11,217	25.3%	23.7%
Reform	9,958	22.5%	34.8%
MIN	6,282	14.2%	8.7%
LIB	2,618	5.9%	8.4%
Green	1,838	4.1%	6.3%
OTH	575	1.3%	0.2%
LAB Majority	630	1.4%	11.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

19%

Reform

72%

MIN

LIB

Green

OTH

Normanton and Hemsworth

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Jon Trickett (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	75,645
Turnout:	48.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,275	47.5%	29.4%
Reform	10,613	29.2%	41.1%
CON	4,995	13.7%	15.0%
Green	2,147	5.9%	6.3%
LIB	1,319	3.6%	7.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.6%
LAB Majority	6,662	18.3%	11.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

21%

Reform

77%

CON

Green

LIB

OTH

Northampton North

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Lucy Rigby (LAB)
County/Area:	Northamptonshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	75,575
Turnout:	55.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,209	43.5%	27.0%
CON	9,195	22.0%	21.1%
Reform	7,010	16.8%	30.9%
Green	2,558	6.1%	8.4%
LIB	2,251	5.4%	8.6%
MIN	1,531	3.7%	3.4%
OTH	1,059	2.5%	0.7%
LAB Majority	9,014	21.6%	3.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

33%

CON

12%

Reform

54%

Green

LIB

MIN

OTH

Northampton South

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Mike Reader (LAB)
County/Area:	Northamptonshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	70,393
Turnout:	62.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,890	38.5%	24.9%
CON	12,819	29.2%	27.8%
Reform	8,210	18.7%	29.6%
LIB	3,193	7.3%	9.2%
Green	2,398	5.5%	7.9%
OTH	394	0.9%	0.6%
LAB Majority	4,071	9.3%	1.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

21%

CON

35%

Reform

44%

LIB

Green

OTH

Northamptonshire South

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Sarah Bool (CON)
County/Area:	Northamptonshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	78,233
Turnout:	68.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,191	35.7%	29.6%
LAB	15,504	28.9%	19.2%
Reform	8,962	16.7%	30.6%
LIB	4,989	9.3%	11.9%
Green	3,040	5.7%	7.5%
OTH	1,765	3.3%	0.9%
MIN	246	0.5%	0.4%
CON Majority	3,687	6.9%	1.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

43%

LAB

Reform

47%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Northumberland North

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	David Smith (LAB)
County/Area:	Northumberland (North East)
Electorate:	74,132
Turnout:	65.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,855	36.6%	25.6%
CON	12,788	26.2%	24.3%
Reform	7,688	15.7%	29.9%
LIB	5,169	10.6%	13.0%
OTH	3,600	7.4%	1.4%
Green	1,743	3.6%	5.8%
LAB Majority	5,067	10.4%	4.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

27%

CON

23%

Reform

48%

LIB

OTH

Green

Norwich North

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Alice Macdonald (LAB)
County/Area:	Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	73,721
Turnout:	62.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,794	45.4%	32.3%
CON	9,944	21.7%	21.6%
Reform	8,229	18.0%	26.2%
Green	4,372	9.6%	11.0%
LIB	2,073	4.5%	8.1%
OTH	353	0.8%	0.7%
LAB Majority	10,850	23.7%	6.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

59%

CON

14%

Reform

26%

Green

LIB

OTH

Norwich South

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Clive Lewis (LAB)
County/Area:	Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	76,381
Turnout:	59.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,484	47.6%	37.3%
Green	8,245	18.3%	18.5%
CON	5,806	12.9%	15.1%
Reform	5,227	11.6%	16.4%
LIB	3,577	7.9%	11.7%
OTH	756	1.7%	1.0%
LAB Majority	13,239	29.4%	18.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

86%

Green

CON

Reform

LIB

OTH

Nottingham East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Nadia Whittome (LAB)
County/Area:	Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	69,395
Turnout:	52.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,494	53.6%	36.8%
Green	4,332	11.9%	15.9%
CON	3,925	10.8%	12.6%
Reform	3,578	9.8%	18.3%
MIN	2,465	6.8%	6.3%
LIB	1,741	4.8%	9.4%
OTH	866	2.4%	0.7%
LAB Majority	15,162	41.7%	18.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

87%

Green

CON

Reform

MIN

LIB

OTH

Nottingham North and Kimberley

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Alex Norris (LAB)
County/Area:	Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	73,768
Turnout:	47.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,480	47.1%	29.9%
Reform	7,053	20.1%	31.9%
CON	6,787	19.4%	20.0%
Green	3,351	9.6%	9.6%
LIB	1,336	3.8%	7.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.8%
LAB Majority	9,427	26.9%	2.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

40%

Reform

52%

CON

Green

LIB

OTH

Nottingham South

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Lilian Greenwood (LAB)
County/Area:	Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	64,255
Turnout:	51.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,579	47.4%	31.5%
CON	5,285	16.1%	17.9%
Reform	4,936	15.0%	25.3%
Green	2,923	8.9%	10.2%
LIB	2,059	6.3%	9.7%
MIN	1,496	4.6%	4.7%
OTH	601	1.8%	0.6%
LAB Majority	10,294	31.3%	6.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

63%

CON

Reform

27%

Green

LIB

MIN

OTH

Nuneaton

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Jodie Gosling (LAB)
County/Area:	Warwickshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	71,662
Turnout:	57.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,216	36.9%	22.9%
CON	11,737	28.5%	28.0%
Reform	9,059	22.0%	30.2%
Green	2,894	7.0%	9.4%
LIB	1,340	3.3%	6.8%
MIN	967	2.3%	2.7%
LAB Majority	3,479	8.4%	2.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

18%

CON

35%

Reform

46%

Green

LIB

MIN

Old Bexley and Sidcup

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Louie French (CON)
County/Area:	Bexley (London)
Electorate:	72,290
Turnout:	65.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,910	37.6%	35.0%
LAB	14,362	30.2%	20.9%
Reform	10,384	21.8%	28.5%
Green	2,601	5.5%	7.8%
LIB	1,927	4.0%	7.3%
OTH	449	0.9%	0.6%
CON Majority	3,548	7.4%	6.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

64%

LAB

Reform

28%

Green

LIB

OTH

Oldham East and Saddleworth

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Debbie Abrahams (LAB)
County/Area:	Eastern Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	72,760
Turnout:	55.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,091	35.2%	25.7%
Reform	7,734	19.3%	28.4%
CON	6,838	17.1%	19.4%
MIN	4,647	11.6%	9.2%
LIB	3,386	8.5%	10.7%
OTH	1,879	4.7%	1.1%
Green	1,490	3.7%	5.6%
LAB Majority	6,357	15.9%	2.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

34%

Reform

50%

CON

14%

MIN

LIB

OTH

Green

Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Jim McMahon (LAB)
County/Area:	Eastern Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	73,178
Turnout:	52.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	13,232	34.3%	25.4%
MIN	8,256	21.4%	15.1%
Reform	6,848	17.8%	27.6%
CON	4,066	10.5%	16.3%
OTH	3,043	7.9%	1.7%
Green	1,857	4.8%	6.2%
LIB	1,271	3.3%	7.8%
LAB Majority	4,976	12.9%	2.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

38%

MIN

Reform

50%

CON

OTH

Green

LIB

Orpington

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Gareth Bacon (CON)
County/Area:	Bromley (London)
Electorate:	71,203
Turnout:	64.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,504	38.0%	35.5%
LAB	12,386	26.9%	19.1%
Reform	8,896	19.3%	25.8%
LIB	4,728	10.3%	11.5%
Green	2,319	5.0%	7.6%
OTH	240	0.5%	0.5%
CON Majority	5,118	11.1%	9.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

73%

LAB

Reform

19%

LIB

Green

OTH

Ossett and Denby Dale

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Jade Botterill (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	72,312
Turnout:	60.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,232	39.3%	25.0%
CON	12,690	28.9%	26.7%
Reform	9,224	21.0%	33.1%
Green	2,132	4.9%	6.7%
LIB	1,785	4.1%	7.9%
OTH	810	1.8%	0.7%
LAB Majority	4,542	10.4%	6.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

18%

CON

25%

Reform

57%

Green

LIB

OTH