Constituency List: England L-Q

Lancashire West

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Rosie Cooper (LAB)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	73,347
Turnout:	71.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	27,458	52.1%	61.0%
CON	19,122	36.3%	24.0%
LIB	2,560	4.9%	4.3%
Reform	2,275	4.3%	6.8%
Green	1,248	2.4%	3.4%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
LAB Majority	8,336	15.8%	37.1% Pred Maj

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Result shown is the original general election result, before the resignation of Rosie Cooper. Ashley Dalton (Labour) won the seat in a by-election on 9 February 2023.

Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Lancaster and Fleetwood

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Cat Smith (LAB)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	70,059
Turnout:	64.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,184	46.8%	60.2%
CON	18,804	41.6%	20.8%
LIB	2,018	4.5%	4.9%
Reform	1,817	4.0%	7.6%
Green	1,396	3.1%	5.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.7%
LAB Majority	2,380	5.3%	39.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Leeds Central

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Hilary Benn (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	90,971
Turnout:	54.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	30,413	61.7%	73.5%
CON	11,143	22.6%	9.7%
Reform	2,999	6.1%	6.5%
LIB	2,343	4.8%	2.5%
Green	2,105	4.3%	7.3%
OTH	281	0.6%	0.5%
LAB Majority	19,270	39.1%	63.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Leeds East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Richard Burgon (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	67,286
Turnout:	58.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,464	49.8%	62.6%
CON	13,933	35.7%	18.0%
Reform	2,981	7.6%	9.4%
LIB	1,796	4.6%	4.1%
Green	878	2.2%	5.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.6%
LAB Majority	5,531	14.2%	44.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Leeds North East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Fabian Hamilton (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	70,580
Turnout:	71.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	29,024	57.5%	68.0%
CON	11,935	23.6%	14.1%
LIB	5,665	11.2%	3.9%
Green	1,931	3.8%	6.9%
Reform	1,769	3.5%	6.8%
OTH	176	0.3%	0.4%
LAB Majority	17,089	33.8%	53.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Leeds North West

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Alex Sobel (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	67,741
Turnout:	72.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,971	48.6%	54.0%
CON	13,222	26.8%	15.9%
LIB	9,397	19.1%	15.5%
Green	1,389	2.8%	7.1%
Reform	1,304	2.6%	7.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
LAB Majority	10,749	21.8%	38.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Leeds West

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Rachel Reeves (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	67,727
Turnout:	59.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,186	55.1%	66.2%
CON	11,622	28.9%	13.4%
Reform	2,685	6.7%	9.1%
LIB	1,787	4.4%	3.9%
Green	1,274	3.2%	6.8%
OTH	727	1.8%	0.7%
LAB Majority	10,564	26.2%	52.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Leicester East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Claudia Webbe (LAB)
County/Area:	Leicestershire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	78,433
Turnout:	63.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	25,090	50.8%	68.2%
CON	19,071	38.6%	16.6%
LIB	2,800	5.7%	1.4%
Reform	1,243	2.5%	7.4%
Green	888	1.8%	6.0%
OTH	329	0.7%	0.4%
LAB Majority	6,019	12.2%	51.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Leicester South

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Jonathan Ashworth (LAB)
County/Area:	Leicestershire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	77,708
Turnout:	64.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	33,606	67.0%	73.9%
CON	10,931	21.8%	10.5%
LIB	2,754	5.5%	2.6%
Green	1,669	3.3%	7.1%
Reform	1,187	2.4%	5.6%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
LAB Majority	22,675	45.2%	63.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Leicester West

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Liz Kendall (LAB)
County/Area:	Leicestershire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	64,940
Turnout:	53.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,291	49.7%	65.4%
CON	13,079	37.6%	16.3%
LIB	1,808	5.2%	3.2%
Reform	1,620	4.7%	8.1%
Green	977	2.8%	6.4%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
LAB Majority	4,212	12.1%	49.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Leicestershire North West

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Andrew Bridgen (CON)
County/Area:	Leicestershire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	78,935
Turnout:	68.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	33,811	62.8%	33.8%
LAB	13,411	24.9%	42.8%
LIB	3,614	6.7%	7.6%
Green	2,478	4.6%	5.5%
OTH	507	0.9%	0.7%
Reform	0	0.0%	9.7%
CON Majority	20,400	37.9%	9.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

27%

LAB

73%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Leicestershire South

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Alberto Costa (CON)
County/Area:	Leicestershire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	80,520
Turnout:	71.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	36,791	64.0%	36.0%
LAB	12,787	22.3%	38.8%
LIB	5,452	9.5%	9.7%
Green	2,439	4.2%	5.6%
Reform	0	0.0%	9.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
CON Majority	24,004	41.8%	2.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

42%

LAB

58%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Leigh

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	James Grundy (CON)
County/Area:	Western Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	77,417
Turnout:	60.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,266	45.3%	24.3%
LAB	19,301	41.1%	56.1%
Reform	3,161	6.7%	9.8%
LIB	2,252	4.8%	5.2%
OTH	999	2.1%	0.7%
Green	0	0.0%	3.9%
CON Majority	1,965	4.2%	31.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

97%

Reform

LIB

OTH

Green

Lewes

Prediction: LIB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Maria Caulfield (CON)
County/Area:	East Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	71,503
Turnout:	76.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,268	47.9%	29.0%
LIB	23,811	43.4%	43.1%
LAB	3,206	5.8%	17.0%
Green	1,453	2.6%	4.0%
OTH	113	0.2%	0.2%
Reform	0	0.0%	6.8%
CON Majority	2,457	4.5%	14.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

16%

LIB

83%

LAB

Green

OTH

Reform

Lewisham Deptford

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Vicky Foxcroft (LAB)
County/Area:	Lewisham (London)
Electorate:	80,631
Turnout:	68.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	39,216	70.8%	73.0%
CON	6,303	11.4%	7.7%
LIB	5,774	10.4%	4.3%
Green	3,085	5.6%	9.6%
Reform	789	1.4%	5.1%
OTH	201	0.4%	0.3%
LAB Majority	32,913	59.4%	63.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Lewisham East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Janet Daby (LAB)
County/Area:	Lewisham (London)
Electorate:	67,857
Turnout:	66.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	26,661	59.5%	66.7%
CON	9,653	21.5%	13.6%
LIB	5,039	11.2%	5.8%
Green	1,706	3.8%	7.1%
Reform	1,234	2.8%	6.4%
OTH	522	1.2%	0.4%
LAB Majority	17,008	38.0%	53.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Lewisham West and Penge

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Ellie Reeves (LAB)
County/Area:	Lewisham (London)
Electorate:	74,617
Turnout:	69.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	31,860	61.2%	65.8%
CON	10,317	19.8%	12.6%
LIB	6,260	12.0%	6.7%
Green	2,390	4.6%	8.1%
Reform	1,060	2.0%	6.4%
OTH	213	0.4%	0.4%
LAB Majority	21,543	41.3%	53.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Leyton and Wanstead

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	John Cryer (LAB)
County/Area:	Waltham Forest (London)
Electorate:	64,852
Turnout:	68.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	28,836	64.7%	71.1%
CON	8,028	18.0%	11.7%
LIB	4,666	10.5%	2.8%
Green	1,805	4.1%	8.7%
Reform	785	1.8%	5.5%
OTH	427	1.0%	0.2%
LAB Majority	20,808	46.7%	59.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Lichfield

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Michael Fabricant (CON)
County/Area:	Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	76,616
Turnout:	70.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	34,844	64.5%	40.0%
LAB	11,206	20.8%	34.8%
LIB	5,632	10.4%	12.0%
Green	1,743	3.2%	4.7%
OTH	568	1.1%	0.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.0%
CON Majority	23,638	43.8%	5.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

62%

LAB

38%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Lincoln

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Karl McCartney (CON)
County/Area:	Lincolnshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	74,942
Turnout:	67.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,267	47.9%	24.1%
LAB	20,753	41.0%	57.3%
LIB	2,422	4.8%	5.3%
Green	1,195	2.4%	4.9%
Reform	1,079	2.1%	7.6%
OTH	913	1.8%	0.7%
CON Majority	3,514	6.9%	33.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

98%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Liverpool Riverside

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Kim Johnson (LAB)
County/Area:	Merseyside (North West)
Electorate:	80,310
Turnout:	65.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	41,170	78.0%	79.6%
CON	4,127	7.8%	5.5%
Green	3,017	5.7%	6.9%
LIB	2,696	5.1%	2.8%
Reform	1,779	3.4%	4.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
LAB Majority	37,043	70.2%	72.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Green

LIB

Reform

OTH

Liverpool Walton

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Dan Carden (LAB)
County/Area:	Merseyside (North West)
Electorate:	62,628
Turnout:	65.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	34,538	84.7%	83.9%
CON	4,018	9.9%	5.8%
Green	814	2.0%	3.4%
LIB	756	1.9%	2.0%
OTH	660	1.6%	0.6%
Reform	0	0.0%	4.3%
LAB Majority	30,520	74.8%	78.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Green

LIB

OTH

Reform

Liverpool Wavertree

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Paula Barker (LAB)
County/Area:	Merseyside (North West)
Electorate:	63,458
Turnout:	68.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	31,310	72.2%	75.5%
CON	4,225	9.7%	7.8%
LIB	4,055	9.3%	5.1%
Reform	1,921	4.4%	5.4%
Green	1,365	3.1%	5.7%
OTH	501	1.2%	0.5%
LAB Majority	27,085	62.4%	67.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Liverpool West Derby

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Ian Byrne (LAB)
County/Area:	Merseyside (North West)
Electorate:	65,640
Turnout:	67.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	34,117	77.6%	80.2%
CON	4,133	9.4%	7.1%
Reform	2,012	4.6%	5.8%
OTH	1,826	4.2%	0.7%
LIB	1,296	2.9%	2.5%
Green	605	1.4%	3.7%
LAB Majority	29,984	68.2%	73.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Reform

OTH

LIB

Green

Loughborough

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Jane Hunt (CON)
County/Area:	Leicestershire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	79,764
Turnout:	68.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,954	51.2%	26.6%
LAB	20,785	38.0%	53.7%
LIB	4,153	7.6%	6.5%
Green	1,504	2.8%	5.4%
OTH	235	0.4%	0.6%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.2%
CON Majority	7,169	13.1%	27.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

95%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Louth and Horncastle

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Victoria Atkins (CON)
County/Area:	Lincolnshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	79,634
Turnout:	65.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	38,021	72.7%	42.0%
LAB	9,153	17.5%	34.0%
LIB	4,114	7.9%	8.7%
OTH	1,044	2.0%	0.6%
Reform	0	0.0%	11.3%
Green	0	0.0%	3.3%
CON Majority	28,868	55.2%	8.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

71%

LAB

28%

LIB

OTH

Reform

Green

Ludlow

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Philip Dunne (CON)
County/Area:	Shropshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	69,444
Turnout:	72.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,185	64.1%	39.9%
LIB	8,537	17.0%	18.8%
LAB	7,591	15.1%	27.8%
Green	1,912	3.8%	4.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.5%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	23,648	47.1%	12.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

78%

LIB

LAB

19%

Green

Reform

OTH

Luton North

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Sarah Owen (LAB)
County/Area:	Bedfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	68,185
Turnout:	62.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,496	55.2%	67.4%
CON	14,249	33.5%	18.5%
LIB	2,063	4.8%	1.7%
Reform	1,215	2.9%	6.3%
OTH	795	1.9%	0.2%
Green	771	1.8%	5.9%
LAB Majority	9,247	21.7%	48.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Reform

OTH

Green

Luton South

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Rachel Hopkins (LAB)
County/Area:	Bedfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	69,338
Turnout:	60.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,787	51.8%	64.5%
CON	13,031	31.0%	18.9%
MIN	3,893	9.3%	0.0%
Reform	1,601	3.8%	7.7%
Green	995	2.4%	6.1%
OTH	757	1.8%	0.4%
LIB	0	0.0%	2.5%
LAB Majority	8,756	20.8%	45.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

MIN

Reform

Green

OTH

LIB

Macclesfield

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	David Rutley (CON)
County/Area:	Cheshire (North West)
Electorate:	76,216
Turnout:	70.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,292	52.5%	30.3%
LAB	17,581	32.6%	45.2%
LIB	5,684	10.6%	9.2%
Green	2,310	4.3%	5.8%
Reform	0	0.0%	9.0%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
CON Majority	10,711	19.9%	14.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

17%

LAB

83%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Maidenhead

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Theresa May (CON)
County/Area:	Berkshire (South East)
Electorate:	76,668
Turnout:	73.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,620	57.7%	38.1%
LIB	13,774	24.4%	18.2%
LAB	7,882	14.0%	30.3%
Green	2,216	3.9%	5.8%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
CON Majority	18,846	33.4%	7.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

68%

LIB

LAB

28%

Green

Reform

OTH

Maidstone and The Weald

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Helen Grant (CON)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	76,109
Turnout:	67.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,220	60.4%	36.2%
LAB	9,448	18.3%	31.2%
LIB	8,482	16.4%	18.9%
Green	2,172	4.2%	5.4%
OTH	358	0.7%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.0%
CON Majority	21,772	42.1%	5.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

60%

LAB

36%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Makerfield

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Yvonne Fovargue (LAB)
County/Area:	Western Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	74,190
Turnout:	59.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,954	45.1%	58.3%
CON	15,214	34.4%	19.6%
Reform	5,817	13.1%	11.2%
LIB	2,108	4.8%	5.2%
Green	1,166	2.6%	4.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.8%
LAB Majority	4,740	10.7%	38.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Maldon

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	John Whittingdale (CON)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	72,438
Turnout:	69.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	36,304	72.0%	44.7%
LAB	6,263	12.4%	28.5%
LIB	5,990	11.9%	13.0%
Green	1,851	3.7%	5.1%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	30,041	59.6%	16.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

86%

LAB

14%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Manchester Central

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Lucy Powell (LAB)
County/Area:	Central Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	92,247
Turnout:	56.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	36,823	70.4%	76.8%
CON	7,734	14.8%	7.4%
LIB	3,420	6.5%	2.4%
Reform	2,335	4.5%	5.4%
Green	1,870	3.6%	7.5%
OTH	107	0.2%	0.4%
LAB Majority	29,089	55.6%	69.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Manchester Gorton

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Afzal Khan (LAB)
County/Area:	Central Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	76,419
Turnout:	58.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	34,583	77.6%	81.1%
CON	4,244	9.5%	5.3%
LIB	2,448	5.5%	0.9%
Green	1,697	3.8%	7.8%
Reform	1,573	3.5%	4.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.2%
LAB Majority	30,339	68.1%	73.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Manchester Withington

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Jeff Smith (LAB)
County/Area:	Central Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	76,530
Turnout:	69.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	35,902	67.7%	72.3%
LIB	7,997	15.1%	5.8%
CON	5,820	11.0%	7.6%
Green	1,968	3.7%	9.1%
Reform	1,308	2.5%	5.0%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.2%
LAB Majority	27,905	52.7%	63.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

LIB

CON

Green

Reform

OTH

Mansfield

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Ben Bradley (CON)
County/Area:	Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	77,131
Turnout:	63.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,484	63.9%	31.3%
LAB	15,178	30.8%	48.3%
LIB	1,626	3.3%	5.2%
OTH	985	2.0%	0.7%
Reform	0	0.0%	10.6%
Green	0	0.0%	3.9%
CON Majority	16,306	33.1%	17.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

14%

LAB

86%

LIB

OTH

Reform

Green

Meon Valley

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Flick Drummond (CON)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	75,737
Turnout:	72.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	35,271	64.3%	40.1%
LIB	11,716	21.4%	21.6%
LAB	5,644	10.3%	25.3%
Green	2,198	4.0%	4.9%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
CON Majority	23,555	43.0%	14.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

80%

LIB

LAB

14%

Green

Reform

OTH

Meriden

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Saqib Bhatti (CON)
County/Area:	Coventry and Solihull (West Midlands)
Electorate:	85,368
Turnout:	63.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	34,358	63.4%	38.4%
LAB	11,522	21.3%	36.7%
LIB	5,614	10.4%	10.4%
Green	2,667	4.9%	5.9%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	22,836	42.2%	1.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

54%

LAB

46%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Middlesbrough

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Andy McDonald (LAB)
County/Area:	Teesside (North East)
Electorate:	60,764
Turnout:	56.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,207	50.5%	67.3%
CON	8,812	25.8%	14.6%
MIN	4,548	13.3%	0.0%
Reform	2,168	6.4%	9.9%
LIB	816	2.4%	2.6%
Green	546	1.6%	4.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.8%
LAB Majority	8,395	24.6%	52.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

MIN

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Simon Clarke (CON)
County/Area:	Teesside (North East)
Electorate:	72,348
Turnout:	66.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,135	58.8%	30.4%
LAB	16,509	34.5%	50.2%
LIB	1,953	4.1%	5.6%
Green	1,220	2.6%	4.1%
Reform	0	0.0%	9.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.6%
CON Majority	11,626	24.3%	19.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

10%

LAB

90%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Milton Keynes North

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Ben Everitt (CON)
County/Area:	Buckinghamshire (South East)
Electorate:	91,545
Turnout:	68.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,938	49.5%	28.2%
LAB	24,683	39.5%	51.5%
LIB	4,991	8.0%	7.4%
Green	1,931	3.1%	5.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.0%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	6,255	10.0%	23.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

93%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Milton Keynes South

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Iain Stewart (CON)
County/Area:	Buckinghamshire (South East)
Electorate:	96,363
Turnout:	66.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,011	50.0%	27.8%
LAB	25,067	39.2%	53.1%
LIB	4,688	7.3%	6.3%
Green	1,495	2.3%	5.5%
OTH	746	1.2%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.0%
CON Majority	6,944	10.8%	25.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

96%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Mitcham and Morden

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Siobhain McDonagh (LAB)
County/Area:	Merton (London)
Electorate:	70,021
Turnout:	65.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	27,964	61.1%	69.5%
CON	11,482	25.1%	14.8%
LIB	3,717	8.1%	3.2%
Reform	1,202	2.6%	5.9%
Green	1,160	2.5%	6.2%
OTH	216	0.5%	0.3%
LAB Majority	16,482	36.0%	54.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Mole Valley

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Paul Beresford (CON)
County/Area:	Surrey (South East)
Electorate:	74,665
Turnout:	76.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,656	55.4%	36.8%
LIB	19,615	34.3%	29.9%
LAB	2,965	5.2%	20.4%
Green	1,874	3.3%	5.2%
OTH	1,000	1.8%	0.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.4%
CON Majority	12,041	21.1%	6.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

65%

LIB

28%

LAB

Green

OTH

Reform

Morecambe and Lunesdale

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	David Morris (CON)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	67,397
Turnout:	67.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,925	52.8%	28.4%
LAB	17,571	38.8%	52.1%
LIB	2,328	5.1%	6.2%
Green	938	2.1%	4.1%
OTH	548	1.2%	0.7%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.4%
CON Majority	6,354	14.0%	23.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

93%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Morley and Outwood

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Andrea Jenkyns (CON)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	78,803
Turnout:	65.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,424	56.7%	28.7%
LAB	18,157	35.0%	51.9%
LIB	2,285	4.4%	5.4%
Green	1,107	2.1%	4.5%
OTH	957	1.8%	0.7%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.9%
CON Majority	11,267	21.7%	23.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

93%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

New Forest East

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Julian Lewis (CON)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	73,549
Turnout:	69.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,769	64.5%	39.5%
LAB	7,518	14.8%	28.2%
LIB	7,390	14.6%	17.5%
Green	2,434	4.8%	5.5%
OTH	675	1.3%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.9%
CON Majority	25,251	49.7%	11.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

76%

LAB

22%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

New Forest West

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Desmond Swayne (CON)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	70,866
Turnout:	71.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,113	63.8%	40.4%
LIB	7,710	15.3%	16.9%
LAB	6,595	13.1%	26.6%
Green	3,888	7.7%	6.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	9.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	24,403	48.5%	13.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

80%

LIB

LAB

18%

Green

Reform

OTH

Newark

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Robert Jenrick (CON)
County/Area:	Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	75,850
Turnout:	72.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	34,660	63.3%	36.7%
LAB	12,844	23.5%	39.3%
LIB	5,308	9.7%	9.4%
Green	1,950	3.6%	4.9%
Reform	0	0.0%	9.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.6%
CON Majority	21,816	39.8%	2.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

43%

LAB

57%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Newbury

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Laura Farris (CON)
County/Area:	Berkshire (South East)
Electorate:	83,414
Turnout:	71.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	34,431	57.4%	35.3%
LIB	18,384	30.6%	28.4%
LAB	4,404	7.3%	23.6%
Green	2,454	4.1%	5.0%
OTH	325	0.5%	0.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.3%
CON Majority	16,047	26.7%	7.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

62%

LIB

26%

LAB

12%

Green

OTH

Reform

Newcastle upon Tyne Central

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Chi Onwurah (LAB)
County/Area:	Newcastle area (North East)
Electorate:	57,845
Turnout:	64.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,568	57.6%	68.5%
CON	9,290	24.8%	12.6%
LIB	2,709	7.2%	3.9%
Reform	2,542	6.8%	7.8%
Green	1,365	3.6%	6.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
LAB Majority	12,278	32.8%	55.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Newcastle upon Tyne East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Nick Brown (LAB)
County/Area:	Newcastle area (North East)
Electorate:	63,796
Turnout:	68.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	26,049	60.1%	68.6%
CON	10,586	24.4%	11.3%
LIB	4,535	10.5%	6.0%
Green	2,195	5.1%	8.1%
Reform	0	0.0%	5.5%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
LAB Majority	15,463	35.7%	57.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Newcastle upon Tyne North

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Catherine McKinnell (LAB)
County/Area:	Newcastle area (North East)
Electorate:	68,486
Turnout:	68.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,354	45.4%	56.8%
CON	15,589	33.2%	18.9%
LIB	4,357	9.3%	7.7%
Reform	4,331	9.2%	9.9%
Green	1,368	2.9%	6.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.6%
LAB Majority	5,765	12.3%	37.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Newcastle-under-Lyme

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Aaron Bell (CON)
County/Area:	Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	68,211
Turnout:	65.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,485	52.5%	30.1%
LAB	16,039	35.9%	49.7%
LIB	2,361	5.3%	7.4%
Reform	1,921	4.3%	7.6%
Green	933	2.1%	4.6%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.6%
CON Majority	7,446	16.6%	19.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

11%

LAB

89%

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Newton Abbot

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Anne Marie Morris (CON)
County/Area:	Devon (South West)
Electorate:	72,529
Turnout:	72.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,190	55.5%	33.5%
LIB	11,689	22.2%	24.8%
LAB	9,329	17.8%	28.7%
Green	1,508	2.9%	4.6%
OTH	840	1.6%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.1%
CON Majority	17,501	33.3%	4.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

54%

LIB

15%

LAB

32%

Green

OTH

Reform

Norfolk Mid

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	George Freeman (CON)
County/Area:	Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	82,203
Turnout:	68.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	35,051	62.4%	37.3%
LAB	12,457	22.2%	35.9%
LIB	7,739	13.8%	14.2%
OTH	939	1.7%	0.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.1%
Green	0	0.0%	4.0%
CON Majority	22,594	40.2%	1.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

53%

LAB

47%

LIB

OTH

Reform

Green

Norfolk North

Prediction: LIB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Duncan Baker (CON)
County/Area:	Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	70,729
Turnout:	71.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,792	58.6%	34.7%
LIB	15,397	30.3%	37.3%
LAB	3,895	7.7%	16.4%
Reform	1,739	3.4%	8.6%
Green	0	0.0%	2.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.2%
CON Majority	14,395	28.3%	2.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

42%

LIB

57%

LAB

Reform

Green

OTH

Norfolk North West

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	James Wild (CON)
County/Area:	Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	72,080
Turnout:	64.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,627	65.7%	39.5%
LAB	10,705	23.0%	36.2%
LIB	3,625	7.8%	10.4%
Green	1,645	3.5%	4.7%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
CON Majority	19,922	42.7%	3.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

56%

LAB

44%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Norfolk South

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Richard Bacon (CON)
County/Area:	Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	86,214
Turnout:	72.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	36,258	58.0%	34.4%
LAB	14,983	24.0%	36.6%
LIB	8,744	14.0%	15.4%
Green	2,499	4.0%	5.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	21,275	34.0%	2.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

45%

LAB

54%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Norfolk South West

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Liz Truss (CON)
County/Area:	Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	78,455
Turnout:	65.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	35,507	69.0%	40.7%
LAB	9,312	18.1%	33.4%
LIB	4,166	8.1%	11.4%
Green	1,645	3.2%	4.8%
OTH	836	1.6%	0.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	9.1%
CON Majority	26,195	50.9%	7.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

67%

LAB

33%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Yvette Cooper (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	84,527
Turnout:	57.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,297	37.9%	56.2%
CON	17,021	35.3%	20.0%
Reform	8,032	16.6%	12.7%
LIB	3,147	6.5%	5.8%
OTH	1,762	3.7%	1.0%
Green	0	0.0%	4.4%
LAB Majority	1,276	2.6%	36.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

Reform

LIB

OTH

Green

Northampton North

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Michael Ellis (CON)
County/Area:	Northamptonshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	58,768
Turnout:	67.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,031	53.2%	27.0%
LAB	15,524	39.3%	53.4%
LIB	2,031	5.1%	5.2%
Green	953	2.4%	5.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.5%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
CON Majority	5,507	13.9%	26.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

95%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Northampton South

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Andrew Lewer (CON)
County/Area:	Northamptonshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	62,163
Turnout:	65.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,914	51.2%	25.9%
LAB	16,217	39.7%	54.3%
LIB	2,482	6.1%	5.2%
Green	1,222	3.0%	5.8%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
CON Majority	4,697	11.5%	28.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

97%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Northamptonshire South

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Andrea Leadsom (CON)
County/Area:	Northamptonshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	90,842
Turnout:	73.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	41,755	62.4%	35.9%
LAB	13,994	20.9%	37.7%
LIB	7,891	11.8%	10.6%
Green	2,634	3.9%	5.9%
OTH	634	0.9%	0.6%
Reform	0	0.0%	9.4%
CON Majority	27,761	41.5%	1.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

45%

LAB

55%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Norwich North

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Chloe Smith (CON)
County/Area:	Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	67,172
Turnout:	68.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,397	50.5%	27.9%
LAB	18,659	40.3%	52.1%
LIB	2,663	5.8%	7.4%
Green	1,078	2.3%	4.9%
OTH	488	1.1%	0.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.3%
CON Majority	4,738	10.2%	24.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

93%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Norwich South

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Clive Lewis (LAB)
County/Area:	Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	77,845
Turnout:	66.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	27,766	53.7%	60.5%
CON	15,006	29.0%	14.3%
LIB	4,776	9.2%	8.6%
Green	2,469	4.8%	9.5%
Reform	1,656	3.2%	6.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
LAB Majority	12,760	24.7%	46.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Nottingham East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Nadia Whittome (LAB)
County/Area:	Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	66,262
Turnout:	60.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	25,735	64.3%	74.8%
CON	8,342	20.9%	9.7%
LIB	1,954	4.9%	2.4%
OTH	1,447	3.6%	0.5%
Reform	1,343	3.4%	5.9%
Green	1,183	3.0%	6.7%
LAB Majority	17,393	43.5%	65.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

OTH

Reform

Green

Nottingham North

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Alex Norris (LAB)
County/Area:	Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	66,495
Turnout:	53.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,337	49.1%	64.1%
CON	12,847	36.4%	16.7%
Reform	2,686	7.6%	9.3%
LIB	1,582	4.5%	3.8%
Green	868	2.5%	5.5%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.7%
LAB Majority	4,490	12.7%	47.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Nottingham South

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Lilian Greenwood (LAB)
County/Area:	Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	79,485
Turnout:	60.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	26,586	55.2%	68.4%
CON	14,018	29.1%	14.1%
LIB	3,935	8.2%	3.8%
Reform	2,012	4.2%	5.9%
Green	1,583	3.3%	7.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
LAB Majority	12,568	26.1%	54.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Nuneaton

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Marcus Jones (CON)
County/Area:	Warwickshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	70,226
Turnout:	64.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,390	60.6%	33.6%
LAB	14,246	31.5%	47.1%
LIB	1,862	4.1%	6.2%
Green	1,692	3.7%	4.8%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
CON Majority	13,144	29.1%	13.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

20%

LAB

80%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Old Bexley and Sidcup

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	James Brokenshire (CON)
County/Area:	Bexley (London)
Electorate:	66,104
Turnout:	69.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,786	64.5%	46.9%
LAB	10,834	23.5%	33.8%
LIB	3,822	8.3%	5.2%
Green	1,477	3.2%	4.1%
OTH	226	0.5%	0.9%
Reform	0	0.0%	9.2%
CON Majority	18,952	41.1%	13.1% Pred Maj

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Result shown is the original general election result, before the death of Mr Brokenshire in October 2021. Louie French (Con) won the seat in a by-election on 2 December 2021.

Chance of winning

CON

80%

LAB

20%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Oldham East and Saddleworth

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Debbie Abrahams (LAB)
County/Area:	Eastern Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	72,120
Turnout:	64.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,088	43.5%	54.6%
CON	18,589	40.3%	23.2%
Reform	2,980	6.5%	10.0%
LIB	2,423	5.2%	6.5%
OTH	1,306	2.8%	0.5%
Green	778	1.7%	5.2%
LAB Majority	1,499	3.2%	31.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

97%

CON

Reform

LIB

OTH

Green

Oldham West and Royton

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Jim McMahon (LAB)
County/Area:	Eastern Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	72,999
Turnout:	60.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	24,579	55.3%	66.8%
CON	13,452	30.3%	15.9%
Reform	3,316	7.5%	8.9%
LIB	1,484	3.3%	2.6%
OTH	922	2.1%	0.4%
Green	681	1.5%	5.4%
LAB Majority	11,127	25.0%	50.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Reform

LIB

OTH

Green

Orpington

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Gareth Bacon (CON)
County/Area:	Bromley (London)
Electorate:	68,877
Turnout:	70.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,882	63.4%	40.3%
LAB	8,504	17.5%	31.5%
LIB	7,552	15.5%	14.0%
Green	1,783	3.7%	5.8%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	22,378	45.9%	8.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

70%

LAB

30%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Oxford East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Anneliese Dodds (LAB)
County/Area:	Oxfordshire (South East)
Electorate:	78,303
Turnout:	63.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	28,135	57.0%	64.1%
CON	10,303	20.9%	12.3%
LIB	6,884	13.9%	7.7%
Green	2,392	4.8%	10.0%
Reform	1,146	2.3%	5.6%
OTH	499	1.0%	0.3%
LAB Majority	17,832	36.1%	51.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Oxford West and Abingdon

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2019:	Layla Moran (LIB)
County/Area:	Oxfordshire (South East)
Electorate:	76,951
Turnout:	76.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	31,340	53.3%	44.9%
CON	22,397	38.1%	24.0%
LAB	4,258	7.2%	21.0%
Reform	829	1.4%	5.7%
Green	0	0.0%	4.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.2%
LIB Majority	8,943	15.2%	20.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

90%

CON

LAB

Reform

Green

OTH

Pendle

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Andrew Stephenson (CON)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	65,289
Turnout:	68.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,076	54.2%	27.7%
LAB	17,890	40.2%	55.1%
LIB	1,548	3.5%	4.0%
Green	678	1.5%	4.0%
OTH	268	0.6%	0.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.6%
CON Majority	6,186	13.9%	27.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

95%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Penistone and Stocksbridge

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Miriam Cates (CON)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	70,925
Turnout:	69.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,688	47.8%	28.2%
LAB	16,478	33.3%	47.1%
LIB	5,054	10.2%	8.8%
Reform	4,300	8.7%	10.9%
Green	0	0.0%	4.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.6%
CON Majority	7,210	14.6%	19.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

10%

LAB

89%

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Penrith and The Border

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Neil Hudson (CON)
County/Area:	Cumbria (North West)
Electorate:	67,555
Turnout:	70.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,875	60.4%	35.0%
LAB	10,356	21.7%	37.4%
LIB	5,364	11.2%	11.6%
Green	2,159	4.5%	5.0%
OTH	1,070	2.2%	0.6%
Reform	0	0.0%	10.5%
CON Majority	18,519	38.7%	2.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

42%

LAB

57%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Peterborough

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Paul Bristow (CON)
County/Area:	Cambridgeshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	72,560
Turnout:	65.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,334	46.7%	26.2%
LAB	19,754	41.3%	55.3%
LIB	2,334	4.9%	5.0%
Reform	2,127	4.4%	8.0%
Green	728	1.5%	5.0%
OTH	524	1.1%	0.4%
CON Majority	2,580	5.4%	29.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

96%

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Plymouth Moor View

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Johnny Mercer (CON)
County/Area:	Devon (South West)
Electorate:	69,430
Turnout:	63.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,831	60.7%	32.2%
LAB	13,934	31.5%	46.4%
LIB	2,301	5.2%	7.8%
Green	1,173	2.7%	4.7%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
CON Majority	12,897	29.2%	14.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

17%

LAB

83%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Plymouth Sutton and Devonport

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Luke Pollard (LAB)
County/Area:	Devon (South West)
Electorate:	77,852
Turnout:	68.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	25,461	47.9%	59.4%
CON	20,704	38.9%	20.2%
Reform	2,909	5.5%	7.0%
LIB	2,545	4.8%	7.0%
Green	1,557	2.9%	5.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.6%
LAB Majority	4,757	8.9%	39.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Poole

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Robert Syms (CON)
County/Area:	Dorset (South West)
Electorate:	73,989
Turnout:	68.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,599	58.7%	35.6%
LAB	10,483	20.8%	34.5%
LIB	7,819	15.5%	15.7%
Green	1,702	3.4%	5.4%
OTH	848	1.7%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.4%
CON Majority	19,116	37.9%	1.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

51%

LAB

48%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Poplar and Limehouse

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Apsana Begum (LAB)
County/Area:	Tower Hamlets (London)
Electorate:	91,836
Turnout:	66.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	38,660	63.1%	74.3%
CON	9,756	15.9%	9.2%
LIB	8,832	14.4%	1.6%
Green	2,159	3.5%	9.9%
Reform	1,493	2.4%	4.8%
OTH	376	0.6%	0.1%
LAB Majority	28,904	47.2%	64.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Portsmouth North

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Penny Mordaunt (CON)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	71,299
Turnout:	64.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,172	61.4%	34.2%
LAB	12,392	27.0%	42.8%
LIB	3,419	7.4%	9.0%
Green	1,304	2.8%	5.1%
OTH	623	1.4%	0.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.4%
CON Majority	15,780	34.4%	8.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

29%

LAB

71%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Portsmouth South

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Stephen Morgan (LAB)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	74,186
Turnout:	63.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,068	48.6%	56.9%
CON	17,705	37.3%	20.1%
LIB	5,418	11.4%	10.8%
Reform	994	2.1%	6.2%
OTH	240	0.5%	0.4%
Green	0	0.0%	5.6%
LAB Majority	5,363	11.3%	36.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

LIB

Reform

OTH

Green

Preston

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Mark Hendrick (LAB)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	59,672
Turnout:	56.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,870	61.8%	70.5%
CON	8,724	25.8%	13.3%
Reform	1,799	5.3%	6.7%
LIB	1,737	5.1%	3.7%
Green	660	2.0%	5.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
LAB Majority	12,146	35.9%	57.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Pudsey

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Stuart Andrew (CON)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	73,212
Turnout:	74.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,453	48.8%	26.0%
LAB	22,936	42.3%	55.8%
LIB	3,088	5.7%	5.5%
Green	894	1.6%	4.6%
OTH	844	1.6%	0.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.6%
CON Majority	3,517	6.5%	29.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

97%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Putney

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Fleur Anderson (LAB)
County/Area:	Wandsworth (London)
Electorate:	65,556
Turnout:	77.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,780	45.1%	56.2%
CON	18,006	35.7%	22.1%
LIB	8,548	16.9%	8.0%
Green	1,133	2.2%	7.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	6.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
LAB Majority	4,774	9.5%	34.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

98%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH