Constituency List: England R-S

Oxford East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Anneliese Dodds (LAB)
County/Area:	Oxfordshire (South East)
Electorate:	71,845
Turnout:	54.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,541	49.7%	33.1%
Green	5,076	12.9%	17.6%
CON	4,739	12.0%	8.8%
OTH	4,167	10.6%	5.0%
LIB	3,437	8.7%	13.6%
MIN	2,381	6.1%	4.8%
Reform	0	0.0%	17.2%
LAB Majority	14,465	36.8%	15.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

76%

Green

CON

OTH

LIB

MIN

Reform

Oxford West and Abingdon

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Layla Moran (LIB)
County/Area:	Oxfordshire (South East)
Electorate:	71,318
Turnout:	64.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	23,414	50.9%	38.6%
CON	8,520	18.5%	17.0%
LAB	5,981	13.0%	14.0%
Reform	4,164	9.1%	19.7%
Green	3,236	7.0%	9.1%
OTH	683	1.5%	1.5%
LIB Majority	14,894	32.4%	18.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

87%

CON

LAB

Reform

Green

OTH

Peckham

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Miatta Fahnbulleh (LAB)
County/Area:	Southwark (London)
Electorate:	72,123
Turnout:	53.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,813	58.8%	36.6%
Green	7,585	19.6%	24.0%
LIB	2,724	7.0%	14.6%
CON	2,276	5.9%	5.3%
Reform	1,790	4.6%	17.1%
OTH	1,609	4.1%	2.5%
LAB Majority	15,228	39.3%	12.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

79%

Green

16%

LIB

CON

Reform

OTH

Pendle and Clitheroe

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Jonathan James Hinder (LAB)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	78,796
Turnout:	59.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,129	34.5%	21.1%
CON	15,227	32.6%	23.3%
Reform	8,171	17.5%	34.9%
OTH	3,431	7.3%	4.1%
LIB	2,039	4.4%	8.7%
Green	1,421	3.0%	7.2%
MIN	336	0.7%	0.7%
LAB Majority	902	1.9%	11.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

13%

CON

16%

Reform

70%

OTH

LIB

Green

MIN

Penistone and Stocksbridge

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Marie Tidball (LAB)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	70,770
Turnout:	62.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,169	43.6%	30.9%
CON	10,430	23.7%	15.1%
Reform	9,456	21.5%	37.4%
LIB	2,866	6.5%	9.2%
Green	2,044	4.6%	6.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.7%
LAB Majority	8,739	19.9%	6.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

32%

CON

Reform

67%

LIB

Green

OTH

Penrith and Solway

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Markus Campbell-Savours (LAB)
County/Area:	Cumbria (North West)
Electorate:	77,935
Turnout:	63.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,986	40.6%	26.8%
CON	14,729	29.9%	22.7%
Reform	7,624	15.5%	30.4%
LIB	4,742	9.6%	11.8%
Green	1,730	3.5%	6.9%
OTH	470	1.0%	1.4%
LAB Majority	5,257	10.7%	3.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

32%

CON

16%

Reform

52%

LIB

Green

OTH

Peterborough

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Andrew Pakes (LAB)
County/Area:	Cambridgeshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	73,378
Turnout:	57.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	13,418	32.0%	20.6%
CON	13,300	31.8%	18.1%
Reform	5,379	12.8%	34.9%
MIN	5,051	12.1%	9.4%
Green	2,542	6.1%	8.9%
LIB	1,746	4.2%	7.5%
OTH	436	1.0%	0.5%
LAB Majority	118	0.3%	14.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

11%

CON

Reform

79%

MIN

Green

LIB

OTH

Plymouth Moor View

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Fred Thomas (LAB)
County/Area:	Devon (South West)
Electorate:	74,724
Turnout:	57.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,665	41.2%	23.0%
CON	12,061	28.1%	18.5%
Reform	9,670	22.6%	41.0%
LIB	1,766	4.1%	8.3%
Green	1,694	4.0%	8.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.2%
LAB Majority	5,604	13.1%	18.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

10%

CON

Reform

86%

LIB

Green

OTH

Plymouth Sutton and Devonport

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Luke Pollard (LAB)
County/Area:	Devon (South West)
Electorate:	75,313
Turnout:	55.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,795	49.4%	31.7%
Reform	7,467	17.7%	33.5%
CON	6,873	16.3%	12.5%
Green	3,186	7.6%	11.2%
LIB	2,441	5.8%	8.1%
OTH	1,022	2.4%	1.9%
MIN	311	0.7%	1.0%
LAB Majority	13,328	31.7%	1.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

44%

Reform

55%

CON

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Yvette Cooper (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	74,618
Turnout:	48.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,089	47.5%	28.5%
Reform	10,459	29.1%	47.1%
CON	5,406	15.0%	10.8%
Green	1,651	4.6%	6.4%
LIB	1,213	3.4%	6.1%
OTH	139	0.4%	1.1%
LAB Majority	6,630	18.4%	18.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

10%

Reform

90%

CON

Green

LIB

OTH

Poole

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Neil John Duncan-Jordan (LAB)
County/Area:	Dorset (South West)
Electorate:	72,509
Turnout:	61.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,168	31.8%	21.7%
CON	14,150	31.8%	25.3%
Reform	7,429	16.7%	29.4%
LIB	5,507	12.4%	13.4%
Green	2,218	5.0%	8.4%
OTH	1,023	2.3%	1.9%
LAB Majority	18	0.0%	4.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

15%

CON

31%

Reform

52%

LIB

Green

OTH

Poplar and Limehouse

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Apsana Begum (LAB)
County/Area:	Tower Hamlets (London)
Electorate:	84,469
Turnout:	51.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,535	43.1%	28.0%
Green	5,975	13.9%	19.0%
CON	4,738	11.0%	7.9%
MIN	4,554	10.6%	7.8%
LIB	4,189	9.7%	14.6%
Reform	3,403	7.9%	21.0%
OTH	1,657	3.8%	1.7%
LAB Majority	12,560	29.2%	7.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

56%

Green

15%

CON

MIN

LIB

Reform

23%

OTH

Portsmouth North

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Amanda Martin (LAB)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	70,446
Turnout:	59.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,495	34.8%	20.9%
CON	13,715	33.0%	22.7%
Reform	8,501	20.4%	37.0%
LIB	3,031	7.3%	10.3%
Green	1,851	4.5%	8.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.0%
LAB Majority	780	1.9%	14.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

12%

Reform

80%

LIB

Green

OTH

Portsmouth South

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Stephen Morgan (LAB)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	73,711
Turnout:	52.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,857	48.4%	32.5%
Reform	5,702	14.6%	29.4%
CON	5,643	14.5%	11.9%
LIB	4,886	12.6%	12.7%
Green	3,107	8.0%	11.7%
OTH	733	1.9%	1.8%
LAB Majority	13,155	33.8%	3.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

58%

Reform

39%

CON

LIB

Green

OTH

Preston

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Mark Hendrick (LAB)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	77,400
Turnout:	51.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,006	35.0%	21.3%
MIN	8,715	21.8%	17.5%
Reform	5,738	14.3%	32.7%
CON	5,212	13.0%	9.9%
LIB	3,195	8.0%	9.6%
Green	1,751	4.4%	7.4%
OTH	1,376	3.4%	1.6%
LAB Majority	5,291	13.2%	11.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

19%

MIN

Reform

77%

CON

LIB

Green

OTH

Putney

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Fleur Anderson (LAB)
County/Area:	Wandsworth (London)
Electorate:	72,614
Turnout:	67.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	24,113	48.9%	38.6%
CON	11,625	23.6%	20.0%
LIB	5,943	12.1%	14.9%
Green	3,721	7.5%	10.6%
Reform	3,070	6.2%	14.0%
MIN	491	1.0%	1.2%
OTH	332	0.7%	0.5%
LAB Majority	12,488	25.3%	18.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

88%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

MIN

OTH

Queen's Park and Maida Vale

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Georgia Gould (LAB)
County/Area:	City of Westminster (London)
Electorate:	75,558
Turnout:	50.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,126	52.5%	35.7%
Green	5,213	13.6%	17.1%
CON	5,088	13.3%	9.5%
LIB	3,417	8.9%	15.4%
Reform	2,106	5.5%	17.9%
MIN	1,792	4.7%	3.8%
OTH	601	1.6%	0.8%
LAB Majority	14,913	38.9%	17.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

84%

Green

CON

LIB

Reform

MIN

OTH

Rawmarsh and Conisbrough

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	John Healey (LAB)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	69,132
Turnout:	49.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,612	49.0%	28.9%
Reform	9,704	28.6%	46.5%
CON	4,496	13.3%	9.8%
Green	1,687	5.0%	6.6%
LIB	1,137	3.4%	6.0%
MIN	268	0.8%	2.3%
LAB Majority	6,908	20.4%	17.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

11%

Reform

89%

CON

Green

LIB

MIN

Rayleigh and Wickford

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Mark Francois (CON)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	76,576
Turnout:	62.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,756	37.0%	26.8%
Reform	12,135	25.3%	38.7%
LAB	11,823	24.6%	16.4%
LIB	4,068	8.5%	10.7%
Green	2,196	4.6%	6.6%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.9%
CON Majority	5,621	11.7%	11.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

19%

Reform

79%

LAB

LIB

Green

OTH

Reading Central

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Matt Rodda (LAB)
County/Area:	Berkshire (South East)
Electorate:	73,600
Turnout:	61.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,598	47.7%	34.0%
CON	8,961	19.8%	16.1%
Green	6,417	14.2%	16.5%
LIB	3,963	8.8%	11.9%
Reform	3,904	8.6%	20.4%
OTH	448	1.0%	1.2%
LAB Majority	12,637	27.9%	13.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

77%

CON

Green

LIB

Reform

12%

OTH

Reading West and Mid Berkshire

Prediction: CON gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Olivia Bailey (LAB)
County/Area:	Berkshire (South East)
Electorate:	68,786
Turnout:	67.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,273	35.0%	24.3%
CON	14,912	32.0%	26.2%
Reform	6,260	13.4%	24.1%
LIB	5,103	11.0%	13.7%
Green	3,169	6.8%	10.1%
OTH	834	1.8%	1.6%
LAB Majority	1,361	2.9%	1.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

27%

CON

40%

Reform

29%

LIB

Green

OTH

Redcar

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Anna Turley (LAB)
County/Area:	Teesside (North East)
Electorate:	70,241
Turnout:	54.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,663	41.0%	26.0%
CON	12,340	32.3%	17.9%
Reform	7,216	18.9%	42.0%
LIB	1,542	4.0%	7.2%
Green	1,270	3.3%	6.1%
OTH	169	0.4%	0.9%
LAB Majority	3,323	8.7%	16.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

13%

CON

Reform

85%

LIB

Green

OTH

Redditch

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Christopher James Bloore (LAB)
County/Area:	Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	71,038
Turnout:	59.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,810	34.9%	20.5%
CON	14,021	33.1%	23.2%
Reform	8,516	20.1%	36.4%
LIB	2,165	5.1%	8.9%
Green	2,098	5.0%	8.0%
MIN	765	1.8%	3.1%
LAB Majority	789	1.9%	13.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

13%

Reform

79%

LIB

Green

MIN

Reigate

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Rebecca Paul (CON)
County/Area:	Surrey (South East)
Electorate:	77,101
Turnout:	68.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,822	35.4%	29.5%
LAB	15,635	29.4%	21.7%
Reform	7,240	13.6%	22.4%
LIB	6,773	12.7%	14.7%
Green	4,691	8.8%	10.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.7%
CON Majority	3,187	6.0%	7.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

56%

LAB

18%

Reform

21%

LIB

Green

OTH

Ribble Valley

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Maya Ellis (LAB)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	80,484
Turnout:	64.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,177	34.9%	22.5%
CON	17,321	33.3%	24.4%
Reform	8,524	16.4%	31.5%
LIB	5,001	9.6%	13.2%
Green	1,727	3.3%	6.3%
OTH	1,273	2.4%	2.0%
LAB Majority	856	1.6%	7.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

17%

CON

22%

Reform

59%

LIB

Green

OTH

Richmond and Northallerton

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Rishi Sunak (CON)
County/Area:	North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	73,888
Turnout:	65.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,059	47.5%	33.0%
LAB	10,874	22.4%	14.8%
Reform	7,142	14.7%	32.2%
LIB	4,322	8.9%	11.8%
Green	2,058	4.2%	6.2%
OTH	981	2.0%	1.7%
MIN	90	0.2%	0.3%
CON Majority	12,185	25.1%	0.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

52%

LAB

Reform

45%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Richmond Park

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Sarah Olney (LIB)
County/Area:	Richmond upon Thames (London)
Electorate:	68,103
Turnout:	76.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	28,528	54.6%	44.5%
CON	11,373	21.8%	20.1%
LAB	5,048	9.7%	12.7%
Green	3,416	6.5%	8.0%
Reform	3,258	6.2%	13.7%
OTH	582	1.1%	1.1%
LIB Majority	17,155	32.9%	24.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

96%

CON

LAB

Green

Reform

OTH

Rochdale

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Paul Waugh (LAB)
County/Area:	Eastern Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	71,264
Turnout:	55.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	13,027	32.8%	20.8%
MIN	11,587	29.2%	22.4%
Reform	6,773	17.1%	33.2%
CON	4,273	10.8%	8.7%
LIB	2,816	7.1%	9.1%
Green	1,212	3.1%	5.8%
LAB Majority	1,440	3.6%	10.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

14%

MIN

Reform

76%

CON

LIB

Green

Rochester and Strood

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Lauren Rae Edwards (LAB)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	74,257
Turnout:	57.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,403	36.2%	21.4%
CON	12,473	29.3%	20.7%
Reform	9,966	23.4%	38.5%
Green	2,427	5.7%	8.8%
LIB	1,894	4.4%	8.7%
MIN	245	0.6%	1.3%
OTH	190	0.4%	0.6%
LAB Majority	2,930	6.9%	17.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

Reform

84%

Green

LIB

MIN

OTH

Romford

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Andrew Rosindell (CON)
County/Area:	Havering (London)
Electorate:	72,978
Turnout:	60.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	15,339	34.8%	24.9%
LAB	13,876	31.5%	19.5%
Reform	9,624	21.8%	36.2%
Green	2,220	5.0%	7.7%
LIB	1,895	4.3%	8.8%
MIN	898	2.0%	2.6%
OTH	195	0.4%	0.3%
CON Majority	1,463	3.3%	11.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

17%

LAB

Reform

77%

Green

LIB

MIN

OTH

Romsey and Southampton North

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Caroline Nokes (CON)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	71,871
Turnout:	69.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,893	39.8%	32.3%
LIB	17,702	35.4%	28.5%
Reform	5,716	11.4%	23.2%
LAB	4,640	9.3%	8.4%
Green	1,893	3.8%	6.6%
OTH	183	0.4%	1.0%
CON Majority	2,191	4.4%	3.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

52%

LIB

34%

Reform

14%

LAB

Green

OTH

Rossendale and Darwen

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Andy MacNae (LAB)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	74,440
Turnout:	59.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,247	40.9%	25.2%
CON	12,619	28.3%	21.0%
Reform	9,695	21.7%	35.5%
Green	2,325	5.2%	8.5%
LIB	1,241	2.8%	7.1%
MIN	491	1.1%	2.5%
LAB Majority	5,628	12.6%	10.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

18%

CON

Reform

74%

Green

LIB

MIN

Rother Valley

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Jake Richards (LAB)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	69,460
Turnout:	59.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,023	38.5%	26.3%
CON	15,025	36.1%	21.0%
Reform	7,679	18.5%	39.4%
Green	1,706	4.1%	6.1%
LIB	1,175	2.8%	6.6%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.6%
LAB Majority	998	2.4%	13.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

15%

CON

Reform

80%

Green

LIB

OTH

Rotherham

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Sarah Champion (LAB)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	75,929
Turnout:	48.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,671	45.1%	26.6%
Reform	11,181	30.3%	45.9%
LIB	2,824	7.6%	8.8%
Green	2,632	7.1%	8.5%
OTH	1,910	5.2%	2.8%
MIN	1,714	4.6%	4.2%
CON	0	0.0%	3.2%
LAB Majority	5,490	14.9%	19.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

10%

Reform

90%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

CON

Rugby

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	John Anthony Slinger (LAB)
County/Area:	Warwickshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	74,901
Turnout:	65.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,533	39.9%	25.3%
CON	15,105	30.8%	23.9%
Reform	8,225	16.8%	30.2%
LIB	3,252	6.6%	9.9%
Green	2,556	5.2%	9.4%
OTH	333	0.7%	1.2%
LAB Majority	4,428	9.0%	4.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

26%

CON

22%

Reform

52%

LIB

Green

OTH

Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	David Simmonds (CON)
County/Area:	Hillingdon (London)
Electorate:	71,683
Turnout:	65.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,366	45.4%	35.4%
LAB	13,785	29.3%	20.5%
Reform	4,671	9.9%	21.0%
LIB	4,343	9.2%	13.4%
Green	2,926	6.2%	9.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.6%
CON Majority	7,581	16.1%	14.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

79%

LAB

Reform

11%

LIB

Green

OTH

Runcorn and Helsby

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Mike Amesbury (LAB)
County/Area:	Cheshire (North West)
Electorate:	71,955
Turnout:	58.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,358	52.9%	35.1%
Reform	7,662	18.1%	33.8%
CON	6,756	16.0%	13.0%
Green	2,715	6.4%	8.2%
LIB	2,149	5.1%	8.4%
OTH	595	1.4%	1.6%
LAB Majority	14,696	34.8%	1.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

52%

Reform

47%

CON

Green

LIB

OTH

Runnymede and Weybridge

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Ben Spencer (CON)
County/Area:	Surrey (South East)
Electorate:	73,610
Turnout:	65.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,442	38.2%	31.6%
LIB	10,815	22.4%	20.8%
LAB	9,963	20.6%	15.8%
Reform	6,419	13.3%	23.5%
Green	1,954	4.0%	6.9%
OTH	660	1.4%	1.3%
CON Majority	7,627	15.8%	8.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

61%

LIB

14%

LAB

Reform

21%

Green

OTH

Rushcliffe

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	James William Naish (LAB)
County/Area:	Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	79,160
Turnout:	72.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	25,291	43.8%	34.5%
CON	17,865	30.9%	21.6%
Reform	6,353	11.0%	22.9%
Green	4,367	7.6%	9.6%
LIB	3,133	5.4%	10.2%
OTH	735	1.3%	1.1%
LAB Majority	7,426	12.9%	11.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

72%

CON

11%

Reform

16%

Green

LIB

OTH

Rutland and Stamford

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Alicia Kearns (CON)
County/Area:	Leicestershire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	71,711
Turnout:	67.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,248	43.7%	32.1%
LAB	10,854	22.3%	15.7%
Reform	7,008	14.4%	28.8%
LIB	6,252	12.9%	15.0%
Green	2,806	5.8%	7.1%
OTH	409	0.8%	1.2%
CON Majority	10,394	21.4%	3.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

55%

LAB

Reform

40%

LIB

Green

OTH

Salford

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Rebecca Long-Bailey (LAB)
County/Area:	Central Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	83,633
Turnout:	47.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,132	53.2%	30.9%
Reform	6,031	15.2%	33.0%
Green	5,188	13.1%	16.5%
CON	3,583	9.0%	6.3%
LIB	2,752	6.9%	10.2%
MIN	791	2.0%	2.7%
OTH	227	0.6%	0.5%
LAB Majority	15,101	38.0%	2.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

41%

Reform

56%

Green

CON

LIB

MIN

OTH

Salisbury

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	John Glen (CON)
County/Area:	Wiltshire (South West)
Electorate:	71,553
Turnout:	70.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,110	34.1%	27.8%
LAB	13,303	26.5%	19.2%
LIB	11,825	23.6%	21.1%
Reform	5,235	10.4%	22.9%
Green	2,115	4.2%	7.6%
OTH	585	1.2%	1.4%
CON Majority	3,807	7.6%	4.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

49%

LAB

11%

LIB

17%

Reform

23%

Green

OTH

Scarborough and Whitby

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Alison Hume (LAB)
County/Area:	North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	74,558
Turnout:	59.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,758	40.2%	25.0%
CON	12,350	27.9%	20.7%
Reform	9,657	21.8%	36.7%
LIB	1,899	4.3%	8.2%
Green	1,719	3.9%	7.4%
OTH	838	1.9%	1.9%
LAB Majority	5,408	12.2%	11.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

17%

CON

Reform

74%

LIB

Green

OTH

Scunthorpe

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Nicholas Dakin (LAB)
County/Area:	Humber area (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	74,263
Turnout:	52.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,484	39.7%	22.5%
CON	11,942	30.6%	21.1%
Reform	8,163	20.9%	39.8%
OTH	1,302	3.3%	2.5%
Green	1,218	3.1%	7.2%
LIB	942	2.4%	6.8%
LAB Majority	3,542	9.1%	17.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

10%

CON

Reform

83%

OTH

Green

LIB

Sefton Central

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Bill Esterson (LAB)
County/Area:	Merseyside (North West)
Electorate:	74,282
Turnout:	63.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	26,772	56.4%	41.3%
CON	8,490	17.9%	15.1%
Reform	5,767	12.2%	25.3%
Green	3,294	6.9%	7.8%
LIB	2,630	5.5%	9.4%
OTH	496	1.0%	1.3%
LAB Majority	18,282	38.5%	16.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

86%

CON

Reform

12%

Green

LIB

OTH

Selby

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Keir Mather (LAB)
County/Area:	North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	78,055
Turnout:	63.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,788	46.3%	30.3%
CON	12,593	25.6%	20.3%
Reform	9,565	19.4%	32.1%
Green	2,484	5.0%	8.3%
LIB	1,792	3.6%	8.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.9%
LAB Majority	10,195	20.7%	1.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

42%

CON

Reform

50%

Green

LIB

OTH

Sevenoaks

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Laura Trott (CON)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	73,708
Turnout:	67.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,328	36.7%	28.4%
LIB	12,888	25.8%	23.7%
Reform	9,341	18.7%	30.2%
LAB	6,802	13.6%	10.5%
Green	2,033	4.1%	6.0%
OTH	507	1.0%	1.3%
CON Majority	5,440	10.9%	1.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

37%

LIB

17%

Reform

46%

LAB

Green

OTH

Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Gill Furniss (LAB)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	70,453
Turnout:	44.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,301	51.6%	26.0%
Green	4,701	14.9%	16.7%
CON	4,069	12.9%	6.8%
MIN	2,537	8.0%	6.6%
OTH	2,310	7.3%	3.6%
LIB	1,694	5.4%	9.8%
Reform	0	0.0%	30.4%
LAB Majority	11,600	36.7%	4.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

35%

Green

CON

MIN

OTH

LIB

Reform

58%

Sheffield Central

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Abtisam Mohamed (LAB)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	60,777
Turnout:	52.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,569	52.1%	32.8%
Green	8,283	26.0%	29.7%
CON	2,339	7.4%	5.8%
LIB	2,174	6.8%	11.8%
OTH	1,782	5.6%	3.1%
MIN	656	2.1%	1.9%
Reform	0	0.0%	14.8%
LAB Majority	8,286	26.1%	3.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

58%

Green

38%

CON

LIB

OTH

MIN

Reform

Sheffield Hallam

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Olivia Blake (LAB)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	73,033
Turnout:	70.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,875	46.3%	34.7%
LIB	15,686	30.4%	28.8%
CON	6,205	12.0%	9.0%
Green	4,491	8.7%	12.0%
OTH	1,063	2.1%	1.5%
MIN	281	0.5%	0.7%
Reform	0	0.0%	13.3%
LAB Majority	8,189	15.9%	6.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

65%

LIB

31%

CON

Green

OTH

MIN

Reform

Sheffield Heeley

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Louise Haigh (LAB)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	73,359
Turnout:	52.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,230	55.2%	32.0%
Green	5,926	15.4%	17.4%
CON	5,242	13.6%	8.0%
LIB	3,863	10.0%	13.1%
OTH	1,591	4.1%	2.6%
MIN	594	1.5%	1.6%
Reform	0	0.0%	25.3%
LAB Majority	15,304	39.8%	6.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

64%

Green

CON

LIB

OTH

MIN

Reform

28%

Sheffield South East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Clive Betts (LAB)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	74,194
Turnout:	48.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,710	52.3%	32.5%
CON	6,252	17.5%	12.5%
LIB	3,421	9.6%	11.4%
Green	3,158	8.8%	10.3%
OTH	2,777	7.8%	3.9%
MIN	1,453	4.1%	3.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	26.0%
LAB Majority	12,458	34.8%	6.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

67%

CON

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Reform

29%

Sherwood Forest

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Michelle Welsh (LAB)
County/Area:	Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	78,894
Turnout:	61.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,841	38.7%	23.6%
CON	13,398	27.5%	19.4%
Reform	11,320	23.3%	38.8%
Green	2,216	4.6%	7.6%
LIB	1,838	3.8%	8.7%
OTH	1,047	2.2%	2.0%
LAB Majority	5,443	11.2%	15.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

13%

CON

Reform

82%

Green

LIB

OTH

Shipley

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Anna Dixon (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	74,130
Turnout:	65.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,738	45.0%	33.1%
CON	13,135	27.2%	17.9%
Reform	7,238	15.0%	29.5%
Green	3,605	7.5%	9.7%
LIB	1,341	2.8%	7.9%
OTH	977	2.0%	1.4%
MIN	269	0.6%	0.6%
LAB Majority	8,603	17.8%	3.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

57%

CON

Reform

38%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Shrewsbury

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Julia Buckley (LAB)
County/Area:	Shropshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	76,633
Turnout:	67.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,932	44.5%	32.0%
CON	11,577	22.5%	15.0%
Reform	7,524	14.6%	29.9%
LIB	6,722	13.0%	14.1%
Green	2,387	4.6%	8.0%
OTH	418	0.8%	1.0%
LAB Majority	11,355	22.0%	2.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

54%

CON

Reform

41%

LIB

Green

OTH

Shropshire North

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Helen Morgan (LIB)
County/Area:	Shropshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	77,594
Turnout:	63.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	26,214	52.9%	37.7%
CON	10,903	22.0%	17.0%
Reform	7,687	15.5%	32.1%
LAB	3,423	6.9%	6.8%
Green	1,234	2.5%	5.1%
OTH	133	0.3%	1.2%
LIB Majority	15,311	30.9%	5.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

63%

CON

Reform

35%

LAB

Green

OTH

Shropshire South

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Stuart Anderson (CON)
County/Area:	Shropshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	76,723
Turnout:	67.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,628	34.1%	25.0%
LIB	16,004	31.0%	24.9%
Reform	9,171	17.8%	33.2%
LAB	6,939	13.4%	10.0%
Green	1,911	3.7%	5.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.0%
CON Majority	1,624	3.1%	8.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

20%

LIB

19%

Reform

60%

LAB

Green

OTH

Sittingbourne and Sheppey

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Kevin McKenna (LAB)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	79,067
Turnout:	51.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	11,919	29.1%	16.8%
CON	11,564	28.2%	19.5%
Reform	10,512	25.6%	42.7%
OTH	3,990	9.7%	5.4%
Green	1,692	4.1%	7.6%
LIB	1,321	3.2%	8.0%
LAB Majority	355	0.9%	23.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

Reform

92%

OTH

Green

LIB

Skipton and Ripon

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Julian Smith (CON)
County/Area:	North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	79,251
Turnout:	67.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,833	35.2%	27.8%
LAB	17,183	32.1%	22.5%
Reform	8,516	15.9%	28.3%
LIB	4,194	7.8%	11.0%
Green	3,446	6.4%	8.5%
OTH	1,278	2.4%	2.0%
CON Majority	1,650	3.1%	0.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

40%

LAB

16%

Reform

42%

LIB

Green

OTH

Sleaford and North Hykeham

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Caroline Johnson (CON)
County/Area:	Lincolnshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	75,807
Turnout:	64.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,348	35.7%	25.0%
LAB	13,002	26.8%	17.0%
Reform	10,484	21.6%	38.0%
OTH	3,032	6.2%	3.9%
Green	2,435	5.0%	7.2%
LIB	2,264	4.7%	9.0%
CON Majority	4,346	8.9%	13.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

18%

LAB

Reform

79%

OTH

Green

LIB

Slough

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Tan Dhesi (LAB)
County/Area:	Berkshire (South East)
Electorate:	81,512
Turnout:	53.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,666	33.9%	22.2%
MIN	11,019	25.5%	18.2%
CON	7,457	17.2%	13.0%
Reform	3,352	7.7%	26.1%
OTH	2,851	6.6%	2.8%
LIB	2,060	4.8%	9.4%
Green	1,873	4.3%	8.3%
LAB Majority	3,647	8.4%	3.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

27%

MIN

CON

Reform

52%

OTH

LIB

Green

Smethwick

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Gurinder Singh Josan (LAB)
County/Area:	Black Country (West Midlands)
Electorate:	72,863
Turnout:	48.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,858	48.0%	26.8%
Reform	5,670	16.1%	36.5%
CON	4,546	12.9%	9.3%
Green	2,741	7.8%	11.3%
MIN	2,449	7.0%	5.8%
OTH	1,833	5.2%	2.6%
LIB	1,018	2.9%	7.7%
LAB Majority	11,188	31.9%	9.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

24%

Reform

75%

CON

Green

MIN

OTH

LIB

Solihull West and Shirley

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Neil Shastri-Hurst (CON)
County/Area:	Coventry and Solihull (West Midlands)
Electorate:	71,813
Turnout:	65.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,284	34.7%	26.0%
LAB	11,664	24.9%	16.7%
LIB	7,916	16.9%	18.0%
Reform	7,149	15.3%	27.9%
Green	3,270	7.0%	9.0%
MIN	594	1.3%	2.3%
CON Majority	4,620	9.9%	1.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

35%

LAB

LIB

Reform

50%

Green

MIN

Somerset North

Prediction: CON gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Sadik Al-Hassan (LAB)
County/Area:	Bristol area (South West)
Electorate:	74,426
Turnout:	72.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,138	35.6%	25.7%
CON	18,499	34.4%	28.1%
LIB	7,121	13.2%	14.8%
Reform	5,602	10.4%	20.6%
Green	3,273	6.1%	9.2%
MIN	133	0.2%	1.5%
LAB Majority	639	1.2%	2.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

34%

CON

44%

LIB

Reform

16%

Green

MIN

Somerset North East and Hanham

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Dan Norris (LAB)
County/Area:	Bristol area (South West)
Electorate:	73,887
Turnout:	69.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,739	40.6%	27.9%
CON	15,420	30.2%	24.2%
Reform	7,424	14.5%	26.1%
LIB	3,878	7.6%	10.8%
Green	3,222	6.3%	9.7%
OTH	442	0.9%	1.3%
LAB Majority	5,319	10.4%	1.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

40%

CON

26%

Reform

32%

LIB

Green

OTH

South Holland and The Deepings

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	John Hayes (CON)
County/Area:	Lincolnshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	78,473
Turnout:	58.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,462	38.0%	24.7%
Reform	10,606	23.1%	43.8%
LAB	9,086	19.8%	11.8%
OTH	5,031	11.0%	5.9%
LIB	1,945	4.2%	8.0%
Green	1,800	3.9%	5.9%
CON Majority	6,856	14.9%	19.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

10%

Reform

89%

LAB

OTH

LIB

Green

South Ribble

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Paul Andrew Foster (LAB)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	73,420
Turnout:	63.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,840	42.5%	27.6%
CON	13,339	28.6%	22.5%
Reform	8,995	19.3%	32.2%
LIB	2,972	6.4%	9.9%
Green	1,574	3.4%	6.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.9%
LAB Majority	6,501	13.9%	4.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

32%

CON

13%

Reform

55%

LIB

Green

OTH

South Shields

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Emma Lewell-Buck (LAB)
County/Area:	Newcastle area (North East)
Electorate:	68,366
Turnout:	53.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,122	41.1%	23.4%
Reform	8,469	23.0%	44.0%
Green	5,433	14.8%	14.0%
CON	4,128	11.2%	7.1%
OTH	2,270	6.2%	3.6%
LIB	1,402	3.8%	7.7%
LAB Majority	6,653	18.1%	20.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

Reform

90%

Green

CON

OTH

LIB

Southampton Itchen

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Darren Paffey (LAB)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	68,379
Turnout:	55.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,782	41.5%	28.0%
CON	9,677	25.4%	15.4%
Reform	6,853	18.0%	35.7%
Green	2,793	7.3%	10.6%
LIB	2,684	7.1%	9.2%
OTH	264	0.7%	1.0%
LAB Majority	6,105	16.0%	7.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

25%

CON

Reform

72%

Green

LIB

OTH

Southampton Test

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Satvir Kaur (LAB)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	65,520
Turnout:	54.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,945	44.5%	28.9%
CON	6,612	18.5%	13.9%
Reform	5,261	14.7%	30.9%
Green	3,594	10.0%	12.5%
LIB	3,252	9.1%	10.5%
MIN	775	2.2%	2.6%
OTH	366	1.0%	0.8%
LAB Majority	9,333	26.1%	2.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

41%

CON

Reform

54%

Green

LIB

MIN

OTH

Southend East and Rochford

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Bayo Alaba (LAB)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	70,217
Turnout:	56.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,395	38.8%	24.7%
CON	11,368	28.7%	22.1%
Reform	7,214	18.2%	31.8%
Green	2,716	6.8%	10.6%
LIB	2,269	5.7%	9.2%
OTH	694	1.8%	1.7%
LAB Majority	4,027	10.2%	7.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

25%

CON

14%

Reform

60%

Green

LIB

OTH

Southend West and Leigh

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	David Edmund Burton-Sampson (LAB)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	75,154
Turnout:	62.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,739	35.6%	23.9%
CON	14,790	31.5%	24.7%
Reform	8,273	17.6%	29.5%
Green	3,262	6.9%	10.3%
LIB	3,174	6.8%	10.0%
OTH	730	1.6%	1.5%
LAB Majority	1,949	4.1%	4.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

21%

CON

27%

Reform

50%

Green

LIB

OTH

Southgate and Wood Green

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Bambos Charalambous (LAB)
County/Area:	Enfield (London)
Electorate:	77,542
Turnout:	58.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,337	51.1%	34.8%
CON	8,037	17.6%	12.1%
Green	5,607	12.3%	15.8%
LIB	3,925	8.6%	14.0%
Reform	3,147	6.9%	20.6%
MIN	833	1.8%	1.8%
OTH	785	1.7%	1.0%
LAB Majority	15,300	33.5%	14.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

81%

CON

Green

LIB

Reform

12%

MIN

OTH

Southport

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Patrick Brian Hurley (LAB)
County/Area:	Merseyside (North West)
Electorate:	73,641
Turnout:	61.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,252	38.3%	28.5%
CON	11,463	25.4%	16.4%
Reform	7,395	16.4%	33.1%
LIB	5,868	13.0%	13.5%
Green	2,159	4.8%	7.0%
OTH	922	2.0%	1.5%
LAB Majority	5,789	12.8%	4.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

36%

CON

Reform

59%

LIB

Green

OTH

Spelthorne

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Lincoln Jopp (CON)
County/Area:	Surrey (South East)
Electorate:	73,782
Turnout:	62.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	14,038	30.4%	24.8%
LAB	12,448	27.0%	18.8%
LIB	8,710	18.9%	17.6%
Reform	8,284	17.9%	29.5%
Green	2,413	5.2%	8.2%
OTH	273	0.6%	1.0%
CON Majority	1,590	3.4%	4.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

29%

LAB

LIB

Reform

55%

Green

OTH

Spen Valley

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Kim Leadbeater (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	72,642
Turnout:	56.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,076	39.2%	26.9%
Reform	9,888	24.1%	41.0%
CON	9,859	24.0%	14.6%
Green	2,284	5.6%	7.9%
OTH	1,526	3.7%	2.2%
LIB	1,425	3.5%	7.5%
LAB Majority	6,188	15.1%	14.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

17%

Reform

82%

CON

Green

OTH

LIB

St Albans

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Daisy Cooper (LIB)
County/Area:	Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	72,739
Turnout:	71.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	29,222	56.6%	43.7%
CON	9,388	18.2%	17.1%
LAB	5,189	10.1%	12.0%
Reform	4,336	8.4%	18.4%
Green	3,272	6.3%	8.0%
OTH	207	0.4%	0.9%
LIB Majority	19,834	38.4%	25.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

94%

CON

LAB

Reform

Green

OTH

St Austell and Newquay

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Noah Law (LAB)
County/Area:	Cornwall (South West)
Electorate:	76,140
Turnout:	61.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,958	34.1%	22.0%
CON	13,488	28.9%	21.9%
Reform	9,212	19.7%	34.2%
LIB	4,805	10.3%	11.4%
Green	2,337	5.0%	8.7%
OTH	932	2.0%	1.9%
LAB Majority	2,470	5.3%	12.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

13%

CON

14%

Reform

71%

LIB

Green

OTH

St Helens North

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	David Baines (LAB)
County/Area:	Merseyside (North West)
Electorate:	75,483
Turnout:	53.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,284	52.6%	30.1%
Reform	9,115	22.5%	43.3%
CON	4,507	11.1%	7.3%
Green	3,495	8.6%	10.0%
LIB	1,799	4.4%	8.0%
OTH	274	0.7%	1.3%
LAB Majority	12,169	30.1%	13.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

18%

Reform

82%

CON

Green

LIB

OTH

St Helens South and Whiston

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Marie Rimmer (LAB)
County/Area:	Merseyside (North West)
Electorate:	71,569
Turnout:	53.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,919	49.7%	28.7%
Reform	6,974	18.3%	40.4%
OTH	4,244	11.2%	5.7%
CON	3,057	8.0%	5.9%
Green	2,642	6.9%	9.7%
LIB	2,199	5.8%	9.6%
LAB Majority	11,945	31.4%	11.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

24%

Reform

76%

OTH

CON

Green

LIB

St Ives

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Andrew George (LIB)
County/Area:	Cornwall (South West)
Electorate:	69,980
Turnout:	68.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	25,033	52.0%	37.6%
CON	11,247	23.4%	16.4%
Reform	6,492	13.5%	30.4%
LAB	2,788	5.8%	8.2%
Green	1,797	3.7%	6.0%
OTH	749	1.6%	1.4%
LIB Majority	13,786	28.7%	7.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

68%

CON

Reform

29%

LAB

Green

OTH

St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Ian Sollom (LIB)
County/Area:	Cambridgeshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	78,115
Turnout:	67.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	19,517	36.9%	30.5%
CON	14,896	28.2%	20.1%
LAB	6,918	13.1%	12.8%
Reform	5,673	10.7%	25.6%
OTH	3,215	6.1%	3.3%
Green	2,663	5.0%	7.8%
LIB Majority	4,621	8.7%	4.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

56%

CON

13%

LAB

Reform

29%

OTH

Green

Stafford

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Leigh Ingham (LAB)
County/Area:	Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	70,608
Turnout:	65.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,531	40.3%	25.4%
CON	13,936	30.3%	23.7%
Reform	8,612	18.7%	31.6%
Green	2,856	6.2%	10.0%
LIB	1,676	3.6%	8.0%
OTH	398	0.9%	1.4%
LAB Majority	4,595	10.0%	6.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

24%

CON

19%

Reform

57%

Green

LIB

OTH

Staffordshire Moorlands

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Karen Bradley (CON)
County/Area:	Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	69,892
Turnout:	62.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	15,310	35.4%	24.2%
LAB	14,135	32.6%	19.2%
Reform	10,065	23.2%	40.5%
Green	2,293	5.3%	7.6%
LIB	1,499	3.5%	7.6%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.0%
CON Majority	1,175	2.7%	16.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

12%

LAB

Reform

84%

Green

LIB

OTH

Stalybridge and Hyde

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Jonathan Reynolds (LAB)
County/Area:	Eastern Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	72,265
Turnout:	51.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,320	43.8%	28.4%
Reform	7,781	20.9%	38.0%
CON	6,872	18.5%	13.3%
Green	2,745	7.4%	8.5%
MIN	1,227	3.3%	3.2%
OTH	1,214	3.3%	1.9%
LIB	1,080	2.9%	6.7%
LAB Majority	8,539	22.9%	9.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

25%

Reform

74%

CON

Green

MIN

OTH

LIB

Stevenage

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Kevin Bonavia (LAB)
County/Area:	Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	70,086
Turnout:	60.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,698	41.4%	26.6%
CON	11,080	25.9%	20.8%
Reform	7,667	17.9%	30.0%
LIB	3,467	8.1%	11.1%
Green	2,655	6.2%	10.4%
OTH	148	0.3%	1.1%
LAB Majority	6,618	15.5%	3.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

32%

CON

13%

Reform

53%

LIB

Green

OTH

Stockport

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Navendu Mishra (LAB)
County/Area:	Eastern Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	76,625
Turnout:	57.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,787	49.9%	34.2%
Reform	6,517	14.9%	28.0%
CON	4,967	11.4%	10.1%
Green	4,865	11.1%	11.6%
LIB	3,724	8.5%	11.8%
MIN	1,630	3.7%	4.1%
OTH	193	0.4%	0.3%
LAB Majority	15,270	35.0%	6.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

65%

Reform

33%

CON

Green

LIB

MIN

OTH

Stockton North

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Chris McDonald (LAB)
County/Area:	Teesside (North East)
Electorate:	70,242
Turnout:	53.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,128	45.8%	27.1%
Reform	9,189	24.6%	43.8%
CON	8,028	21.5%	14.8%
Green	1,923	5.1%	7.1%
LIB	1,133	3.0%	6.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.0%
LAB Majority	7,939	21.2%	16.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

11%

Reform

88%

CON

Green

LIB

OTH

Stockton West

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Matt Vickers (CON)
County/Area:	Teesside (North East)
Electorate:	71,868
Turnout:	67.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,372	41.9%	31.2%
LAB	18,233	37.5%	24.7%
Reform	6,833	14.0%	28.6%
Green	1,477	3.0%	6.7%
LIB	1,203	2.5%	7.5%
OTH	520	1.1%	1.4%
CON Majority	2,139	4.4%	2.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

47%

LAB

18%

Reform

35%

Green

LIB

OTH

Stoke-on-Trent Central

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Gareth Snell (LAB)
County/Area:	Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	73,693
Turnout:	47.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,950	42.4%	23.9%
Reform	8,541	24.2%	46.1%
CON	6,221	17.6%	9.8%
OTH	2,875	8.1%	4.2%
Green	1,703	4.8%	9.1%
LIB	999	2.8%	6.8%
LAB Majority	6,409	18.2%	22.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

Reform

92%

CON

OTH

Green

LIB

Stoke-on-Trent North

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	David Williams (LAB)
County/Area:	Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	69,790
Turnout:	51.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,579	40.3%	21.2%
CON	9,497	26.3%	17.8%
Reform	8,824	24.4%	43.6%
Green	1,236	3.4%	8.3%
OTH	1,103	3.1%	2.5%
LIB	911	2.5%	6.6%
LAB Majority	5,082	14.1%	22.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

Reform

92%

Green

OTH

LIB