Constituency List: England R-S

Rayleigh and Wickford

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Mark Francois (CON)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	78,930
Turnout:	69.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	39,864	72.6%	42.4%
LAB	8,864	16.1%	32.5%
LIB	4,171	7.6%	8.3%
Green	2,002	3.6%	6.7%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.4%
CON Majority	31,000	56.5%	9.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

74%

LAB

26%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Reading East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Matt Rodda (LAB)
County/Area:	Berkshire (South East)
Electorate:	77,152
Turnout:	72.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	27,102	48.5%	57.7%
CON	21,178	37.9%	22.7%
LIB	5,035	9.0%	8.1%
Green	1,549	2.8%	6.0%
Reform	852	1.5%	4.5%
OTH	202	0.4%	1.0%
LAB Majority	5,924	10.6%	35.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

98%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Reading West

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Alok Sharma (CON)
County/Area:	Berkshire (South East)
Electorate:	74,137
Turnout:	68.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,393	48.4%	27.6%
LAB	20,276	40.2%	52.4%
LIB	4,460	8.9%	7.5%
Green	1,263	2.5%	5.6%
Reform	0	0.0%	5.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.1%
CON Majority	4,117	8.2%	24.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

94%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Redcar

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Jacob Young (CON)
County/Area:	Teesside (North East)
Electorate:	65,864
Turnout:	62.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,811	46.1%	25.4%
LAB	15,284	37.4%	49.7%
Reform	2,915	7.1%	9.9%
LIB	2,018	4.9%	8.4%
OTH	1,323	3.2%	2.6%
Green	491	1.2%	4.0%
CON Majority	3,527	8.6%	24.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

95%

Reform

LIB

OTH

Green

Redditch

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Rachel Maclean (CON)
County/Area:	Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	65,391
Turnout:	67.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,907	63.3%	34.6%
LAB	11,871	26.9%	43.8%
LIB	2,905	6.6%	6.7%
Green	1,384	3.1%	5.6%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.5%
CON Majority	16,036	36.4%	9.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

26%

LAB

74%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Reigate

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Crispin Blunt (CON)
County/Area:	Surrey (South East)
Electorate:	74,242
Turnout:	71.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,665	53.9%	32.9%
LAB	10,355	19.5%	35.4%
LIB	10,320	19.4%	15.9%
Green	3,169	6.0%	9.1%
OTH	647	1.2%	1.1%
Reform	0	0.0%	5.6%
CON Majority	18,310	34.4%	2.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

45%

LAB

54%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Ribble South

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Katherine Fletcher (CON)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	75,351
Turnout:	71.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,028	55.8%	31.4%
LAB	18,829	35.0%	48.7%
LIB	3,720	6.9%	6.4%
Green	1,207	2.2%	4.9%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.5%
CON Majority	11,199	20.8%	17.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

14%

LAB

86%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Ribble Valley

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Nigel Evans (CON)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	79,247
Turnout:	69.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	33,346	60.3%	34.3%
LAB	14,907	27.0%	43.0%
LIB	4,776	8.6%	8.2%
Green	1,704	3.1%	5.7%
OTH	551	1.0%	1.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.2%
CON Majority	18,439	33.4%	8.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

28%

LAB

72%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Richmond

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Rishi Sunak (CON)
County/Area:	North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	82,569
Turnout:	69.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	36,693	63.6%	36.3%
LAB	9,483	16.4%	37.3%
LIB	6,989	12.1%	10.5%
Green	2,500	4.3%	6.8%
OTH	2,038	3.5%	1.9%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.2%
CON Majority	27,210	47.2%	1.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

48%

LAB

51%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Richmond Park

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2019:	Sarah Olney (LIB)
County/Area:	Richmond Upon Thames (London)
Electorate:	82,699
Turnout:	78.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	34,559	53.1%	45.1%
CON	26,793	41.2%	29.6%
LAB	3,407	5.2%	16.9%
OTH	308	0.5%	0.7%
Reform	0	0.0%	3.6%
Green	0	0.0%	4.1%
LIB Majority	7,766	11.9%	15.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

84%

CON

14%

LAB

OTH

Reform

Green

Rochdale

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Tony Lloyd (LAB)
County/Area:	Eastern Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	78,909
Turnout:	60.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	24,475	51.6%	60.0%
CON	14,807	31.2%	19.4%
Reform	3,867	8.2%	6.8%
LIB	3,312	7.0%	8.9%
Green	986	2.1%	3.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.1%
LAB Majority	9,668	20.4%	40.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Rochester and Strood

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Kelly Tolhurst (CON)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	82,056
Turnout:	63.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,151	60.0%	32.1%
LAB	14,079	27.1%	44.1%
LIB	3,717	7.2%	7.7%
OTH	1,667	3.2%	1.7%
Green	1,312	2.5%	6.0%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.3%
CON Majority	17,072	32.9%	12.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

22%

LAB

78%

LIB

OTH

Green

Reform

Rochford and Southend East

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	James Duddridge (CON)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	75,624
Turnout:	61.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,063	58.7%	31.9%
LAB	14,777	32.0%	46.0%
LIB	2,822	6.1%	7.5%
OTH	1,474	3.2%	1.7%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.7%
Green	0	0.0%	5.2%
CON Majority	12,286	26.6%	14.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

19%

LAB

81%

LIB

OTH

Reform

Green

Romford

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Andrew Rosindell (CON)
County/Area:	Havering (London)
Electorate:	72,350
Turnout:	65.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,494	64.6%	36.5%
LAB	12,601	26.7%	41.0%
LIB	2,708	5.7%	6.8%
Green	1,428	3.0%	6.2%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.3%
CON Majority	17,893	37.9%	4.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

38%

LAB

62%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Romsey and Southampton North

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Caroline Nokes (CON)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	68,228
Turnout:	75.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,862	54.2%	35.0%
LIB	16,990	33.1%	26.4%
LAB	5,898	11.5%	27.5%
OTH	640	1.2%	1.1%
Reform	0	0.0%	6.1%
Green	0	0.0%	3.9%
CON Majority	10,872	21.2%	7.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

57%

LIB

17%

LAB

25%

OTH

Reform

Green

Rossendale and Darwen

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Jake Berry (CON)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	72,770
Turnout:	67.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,570	56.5%	29.2%
LAB	18,048	37.0%	52.3%
LIB	2,011	4.1%	5.0%
Green	1,193	2.4%	4.9%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.6%
CON Majority	9,522	19.5%	23.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

92%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Rother Valley

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Alexander Stafford (CON)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	74,804
Turnout:	65.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,970	45.1%	25.7%
LAB	15,652	32.1%	47.7%
Reform	6,264	12.9%	11.5%
LIB	2,553	5.2%	7.4%
Green	1,219	2.5%	5.4%
OTH	1,040	2.1%	2.4%
CON Majority	6,318	13.0%	22.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

91%

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Rotherham

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Sarah Champion (LAB)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	61,688
Turnout:	57.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,736	41.3%	55.7%
CON	11,615	32.6%	19.0%
Reform	6,125	17.2%	11.6%
LIB	2,090	5.9%	7.8%
OTH	1,085	3.0%	2.3%
Green	0	0.0%	3.7%
LAB Majority	3,121	8.8%	36.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

Reform

LIB

OTH

Green

Rugby

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Mark Pawsey (CON)
County/Area:	Warwickshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	72,292
Turnout:	70.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,255	57.6%	32.3%
LAB	15,808	31.1%	46.0%
LIB	4,207	8.3%	7.4%
Green	1,544	3.0%	5.7%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.4%
CON Majority	13,447	26.5%	13.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

21%

LAB

79%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	David Simmonds (CON)
County/Area:	Hillingdon (London)
Electorate:	72,816
Turnout:	72.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,391	55.6%	36.5%
LAB	12,997	24.6%	38.8%
LIB	7,986	15.1%	11.1%
Green	1,646	3.1%	6.7%
OTH	884	1.7%	1.0%
Reform	0	0.0%	6.0%
CON Majority	16,394	31.0%	2.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

44%

LAB

55%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Runnymede and Weybridge

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Ben Spencer (CON)
County/Area:	Surrey (South East)
Electorate:	77,196
Turnout:	69.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,262	54.9%	34.3%
LAB	10,992	20.6%	36.5%
LIB	9,236	17.3%	14.3%
OTH	1,923	3.6%	1.3%
Green	1,876	3.5%	7.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	6.3%
CON Majority	18,270	34.3%	2.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

45%

LAB

54%

LIB

OTH

Green

Reform

Rushcliffe

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Ruth Edwards (CON)
County/Area:	Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	77,047
Turnout:	78.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,765	47.5%	28.6%
LAB	21,122	34.9%	48.1%
LIB	9,600	15.9%	11.3%
OTH	1,018	1.7%	1.2%
Reform	0	0.0%	5.4%
Green	0	0.0%	5.4%
CON Majority	7,643	12.6%	19.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

11%

LAB

88%

LIB

OTH

Reform

Green

Rutland and Melton

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Alicia Kearns (CON)
County/Area:	Leicestershire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	82,705
Turnout:	70.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	36,507	62.6%	36.8%
LAB	9,583	16.4%	34.5%
LIB	7,970	13.7%	12.6%
Green	2,875	4.9%	7.3%
OTH	1,375	2.4%	1.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.2%
CON Majority	26,924	46.2%	2.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

56%

LAB

43%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Saffron Walden

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Kemi Badenoch (CON)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	87,017
Turnout:	72.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	39,714	63.0%	38.7%
LIB	12,120	19.2%	16.5%
LAB	8,305	13.2%	29.5%
Green	2,947	4.7%	7.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	6.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.2%
CON Majority	27,594	43.7%	9.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

71%

LIB

LAB

27%

Green

Reform

OTH

Salford and Eccles

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Rebecca Long-Bailey (LAB)
County/Area:	Central Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	82,202
Turnout:	61.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	28,755	56.8%	65.4%
CON	12,428	24.5%	14.1%
Reform	4,290	8.5%	6.2%
LIB	3,099	6.1%	6.5%
Green	2,060	4.1%	6.0%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.8%
LAB Majority	16,327	32.2%	51.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Salisbury

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	John Glen (CON)
County/Area:	Wiltshire (South West)
Electorate:	74,556
Turnout:	72.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,280	56.4%	33.8%
LIB	10,544	19.6%	16.1%
LAB	9,675	18.0%	35.2%
Green	2,486	4.6%	7.2%
OTH	745	1.4%	1.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	6.4%
CON Majority	19,736	36.7%	1.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

45%

LIB

LAB

54%

Green

OTH

Reform

Scarborough and Whitby

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Robert Goodwill (CON)
County/Area:	North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	74,404
Turnout:	66.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,593	55.5%	30.4%
LAB	17,323	34.8%	48.8%
LIB	3,038	6.1%	6.7%
OTH	1,770	3.6%	2.0%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.7%
Green	0	0.0%	4.4%
CON Majority	10,270	20.7%	18.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

11%

LAB

89%

LIB

OTH

Reform

Green

Scunthorpe

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Holly Mumby-Croft (CON)
County/Area:	Humber area (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	61,955
Turnout:	60.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,306	53.8%	27.2%
LAB	13,855	36.7%	52.4%
Reform	2,044	5.4%	9.2%
LIB	875	2.3%	4.7%
Green	670	1.8%	4.6%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.9%
CON Majority	6,451	17.1%	25.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

95%

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Sedgefield

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Paul Howell (CON)
County/Area:	Durham (North East)
Electorate:	64,325
Turnout:	64.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,609	47.2%	24.8%
LAB	15,096	36.3%	52.8%
Reform	3,518	8.5%	9.0%
LIB	1,955	4.7%	5.9%
Green	994	2.4%	5.2%
OTH	394	0.9%	2.3%
CON Majority	4,513	10.9%	28.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

97%

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Sefton Central

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Bill Esterson (LAB)
County/Area:	Merseyside (North West)
Electorate:	69,760
Turnout:	72.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	29,254	57.5%	62.2%
CON	14,132	27.8%	18.8%
LIB	3,386	6.7%	6.1%
Reform	2,425	4.8%	5.8%
Green	1,261	2.5%	5.6%
OTH	422	0.8%	1.6%
LAB Majority	15,122	29.7%	43.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Selby and Ainsty

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Nigel Adams (CON)
County/Area:	North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	78,398
Turnout:	72.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	33,995	60.3%	35.2%
LAB	13,858	24.6%	41.5%
LIB	4,842	8.6%	8.0%
OTH	1,900	3.4%	1.8%
Green	1,823	3.2%	5.8%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.7%
CON Majority	20,137	35.7%	6.3% Pred Maj

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Result shown is the original general election result, before the resignation of Nigel Adams. A by-election will be held on 20 July 2023.

Chance of winning

CON

34%

LAB

66%

LIB

OTH

Green

Reform

Sevenoaks

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Laura Trott (CON)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	71,757
Turnout:	71.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,932	60.7%	37.6%
LIB	10,114	19.8%	16.1%
LAB	6,946	13.6%	30.5%
Green	1,974	3.9%	7.5%
OTH	990	1.9%	1.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	6.9%
CON Majority	20,818	40.9%	7.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

68%

LIB

LAB

30%

Green

OTH

Reform

Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Gill Furniss (LAB)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	69,333
Turnout:	57.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,369	56.5%	66.9%
CON	10,095	25.5%	13.6%
Reform	3,855	9.7%	7.2%
LIB	1,517	3.8%	5.7%
Green	1,179	3.0%	4.8%
OTH	585	1.5%	1.8%
LAB Majority	12,274	31.0%	53.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Sheffield Central

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Paul Blomfield (LAB)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	89,849
Turnout:	56.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	33,968	66.7%	72.2%
CON	6,695	13.1%	8.1%
Green	4,570	9.0%	8.0%
LIB	3,237	6.4%	8.1%
Reform	1,969	3.9%	2.6%
OTH	474	0.9%	1.0%
LAB Majority	27,273	53.6%	64.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Green

LIB

Reform

OTH

Sheffield Hallam

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Olivia Blake (LAB)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	72,763
Turnout:	78.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,709	34.6%	40.9%
LIB	18,997	33.4%	30.0%
CON	14,696	25.8%	18.6%
Green	1,630	2.9%	5.1%
Reform	1,562	2.7%	4.2%
OTH	291	0.5%	1.2%
LAB Majority	712	1.3%	11.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

77%

LIB

20%

CON

Green

Reform

OTH

Sheffield Heeley

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Louise Haigh (LAB)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	66,940
Turnout:	63.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,475	50.3%	60.6%
CON	12,955	30.3%	16.4%
Reform	3,538	8.3%	7.1%
LIB	2,916	6.8%	7.7%
Green	1,811	4.2%	6.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.8%
LAB Majority	8,520	20.0%	44.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Sheffield South East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Clive Betts (LAB)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	67,832
Turnout:	61.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,359	46.1%	57.7%
CON	15,070	35.9%	20.3%
Reform	4,478	10.7%	9.6%
LIB	2,125	5.1%	6.6%
OTH	966	2.3%	2.1%
Green	0	0.0%	3.8%
LAB Majority	4,289	10.2%	37.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

Reform

LIB

OTH

Green

Sherwood

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Mark Spencer (CON)
County/Area:	Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	77,888
Turnout:	67.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,049	60.8%	32.2%
LAB	15,863	30.1%	46.8%
LIB	2,883	5.5%	5.8%
Green	1,214	2.3%	5.2%
OTH	700	1.3%	1.8%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.2%
CON Majority	16,186	30.7%	14.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

17%

LAB

83%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Shipley

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Philip Davies (CON)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	74,029
Turnout:	72.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,437	50.8%	28.5%
LAB	21,195	39.2%	52.7%
LIB	3,188	5.9%	6.0%
Green	1,301	2.4%	5.6%
OTH	883	1.6%	1.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	5.8%
CON Majority	6,242	11.6%	24.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

94%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Shrewsbury and Atcham

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Daniel Kawczynski (CON)
County/Area:	Shropshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	82,238
Turnout:	71.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,021	52.5%	29.8%
LAB	19,804	33.5%	46.7%
LIB	5,906	10.0%	9.4%
Green	1,762	3.0%	6.0%
OTH	572	1.0%	1.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	6.6%
CON Majority	11,217	19.0%	16.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

16%

LAB

84%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Shropshire North

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Owen Paterson (CON)
County/Area:	Shropshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	83,258
Turnout:	67.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	35,444	62.7%	34.4%
LAB	12,495	22.1%	40.8%
LIB	5,643	10.0%	9.2%
Green	1,790	3.2%	6.2%
OTH	1,141	2.0%	1.7%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.8%
CON Majority	22,949	40.6%	6.4% Pred Maj

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Result shown is the original general election result, before the resignation of Owen Paterson in November 2021. Helen Morgan (Lib Dem) won the seat in a by-election on 16 December 2021.

Chance of winning

CON

35%

LAB

65%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Sittingbourne and Sheppey

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Gordon Henderson (CON)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	83,917
Turnout:	61.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	34,742	67.6%	36.7%
LAB	10,263	20.0%	39.0%
LIB	3,213	6.3%	7.5%
OTH	1,988	3.9%	2.0%
Green	1,188	2.3%	5.7%
Reform	0	0.0%	9.1%
CON Majority	24,479	47.6%	2.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

45%

LAB

55%

LIB

OTH

Green

Reform

Skipton and Ripon

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Julian Smith (CON)
County/Area:	North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	78,673
Turnout:	74.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	34,919	59.5%	34.9%
LAB	11,225	19.1%	37.2%
LIB	8,701	14.8%	12.2%
Green	2,748	4.7%	7.5%
OTH	1,131	1.9%	1.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	6.7%
CON Majority	23,694	40.3%	2.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

45%

LAB

54%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Sleaford and North Hykeham

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Caroline Johnson (CON)
County/Area:	Lincolnshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	94,761
Turnout:	70.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	44,683	67.1%	39.8%
LAB	12,118	18.2%	35.9%
LIB	5,355	8.0%	8.3%
OTH	2,656	4.0%	2.0%
Green	1,742	2.6%	5.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.7%
CON Majority	32,565	48.9%	3.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

59%

LAB

41%

LIB

OTH

Green

Reform

Slough

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Tan Dhesi (LAB)
County/Area:	Berkshire (South East)
Electorate:	86,818
Turnout:	58.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	29,421	57.6%	64.9%
CON	15,781	30.9%	19.5%
LIB	3,357	6.6%	6.0%
Reform	1,432	2.8%	4.9%
Green	1,047	2.1%	4.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.6%
LAB Majority	13,640	26.7%	45.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Solihull

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Julian Knight (CON)
County/Area:	Coventry and Solihull (West Midlands)
Electorate:	78,760
Turnout:	70.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,309	58.4%	37.4%
LAB	11,036	19.9%	32.6%
LIB	9,977	18.0%	17.0%
Green	2,022	3.7%	5.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	6.4%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.1%
CON Majority	21,273	38.4%	4.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

62%

LAB

37%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Somerset North

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Liam Fox (CON)
County/Area:	Bristol area (South West)
Electorate:	80,194
Turnout:	77.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,801	52.9%	32.4%
LAB	15,265	24.6%	37.8%
LIB	11,051	17.8%	15.0%
Green	2,938	4.7%	7.8%
Reform	0	0.0%	5.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.2%
CON Majority	17,536	28.3%	5.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

35%

LAB

64%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Somerset North East

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Jacob Rees-Mogg (CON)
County/Area:	Bristol area (South West)
Electorate:	73,692
Turnout:	76.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,360	50.4%	30.4%
LAB	13,631	24.2%	40.4%
LIB	12,422	22.1%	15.2%
Green	1,423	2.5%	6.3%
OTH	472	0.8%	1.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	6.3%
CON Majority	14,729	26.2%	10.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

26%

LAB

73%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Somerton and Frome

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	David Warburton (CON)
County/Area:	Somerset (South West)
Electorate:	85,866
Turnout:	75.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	36,230	55.8%	34.1%
LIB	17,017	26.2%	23.1%
LAB	8,354	12.9%	28.2%
Green	3,295	5.1%	7.0%
Reform	0	0.0%	6.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.3%
CON Majority	19,213	29.6%	5.9% Pred Maj

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Result shown is the original general election result, before the resignation of David Warburton. A by-election will be held on 20 July 2023.

Chance of winning

CON

59%

LIB

11%

LAB

29%

Green

Reform

OTH

South Holland and The Deepings

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	John Hayes (CON)
County/Area:	Lincolnshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	75,975
Turnout:	64.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	37,338	75.9%	41.1%
LAB	6,500	13.2%	33.8%
LIB	3,225	6.6%	7.5%
Green	1,613	3.3%	6.0%
OTH	503	1.0%	1.7%
Reform	0	0.0%	9.9%
CON Majority	30,838	62.7%	7.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

67%

LAB

33%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

South Shields

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Emma Lewell-Buck (LAB)
County/Area:	Newcastle area (North East)
Electorate:	62,793
Turnout:	60.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,273	45.6%	60.9%
CON	7,688	20.3%	13.6%
Reform	6,446	17.0%	9.9%
MIN	3,658	9.7%	0.0%
LIB	1,514	4.0%	6.2%
Green	1,303	3.4%	5.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.5%
LAB Majority	9,585	25.3%	47.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Reform

MIN

LIB

Green

OTH

Southampton Itchen

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Royston Smith (CON)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	72,299
Turnout:	65.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,952	50.5%	25.0%
LAB	19,454	41.0%	55.5%
LIB	2,503	5.3%	5.8%
Green	1,040	2.2%	5.3%
OTH	472	1.0%	1.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	6.7%
CON Majority	4,498	9.5%	30.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

98%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Southampton Test

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Alan Whitehead (LAB)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	70,116
Turnout:	64.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,256	49.5%	61.8%
CON	16,043	35.7%	18.5%
LIB	3,449	7.7%	6.9%
Reform	1,591	3.5%	5.7%
Green	1,433	3.2%	5.7%
OTH	222	0.5%	1.5%
LAB Majority	6,213	13.8%	43.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Southend West

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	David Amess (CON)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	69,043
Turnout:	67.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,555	59.2%	34.5%
LAB	13,096	28.1%	40.9%
LIB	5,312	11.4%	10.9%
OTH	574	1.2%	1.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.3%
Green	0	0.0%	5.1%
CON Majority	14,459	31.1%	6.4% Pred Maj

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Result shown is the original general election result, before the death of Sir David Amess in October 2021. Anna Firth (Con) won the seat in a by-election on 3 February 2022.

Chance of winning

CON

35%

LAB

65%

LIB

OTH

Reform

Green

Southport

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Damien Moore (CON)
County/Area:	Merseyside (North West)
Electorate:	70,837
Turnout:	68.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,914	47.6%	28.9%
LAB	18,767	39.0%	44.0%
LIB	6,499	13.5%	15.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	6.4%
Green	0	0.0%	3.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.4%
CON Majority	4,147	8.6%	15.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

16%

LAB

84%

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Spelthorne

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Kwasi Kwarteng (CON)
County/Area:	Surrey (South East)
Electorate:	70,929
Turnout:	69.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,141	58.9%	35.0%
LAB	10,748	21.7%	36.5%
LIB	7,499	15.1%	12.9%
Green	2,122	4.3%	7.1%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.2%
CON Majority	18,393	37.2%	1.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

46%

LAB

54%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

St Albans

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2019:	Daisy Cooper (LIB)
County/Area:	Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	73,727
Turnout:	78.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	28,867	50.1%	38.0%
CON	22,574	39.2%	27.3%
LAB	5,000	8.7%	24.6%
Green	1,004	1.7%	4.9%
OTH	154	0.3%	0.8%
Reform	0	0.0%	4.3%
LIB Majority	6,293	10.9%	10.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

71%

CON

17%

LAB

12%

Green

OTH

Reform

St Austell and Newquay

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Steve Double (CON)
County/Area:	Cornwall (South West)
Electorate:	79,930
Turnout:	69.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,273	56.1%	33.2%
LAB	14,747	26.4%	38.0%
LIB	5,861	10.5%	13.3%
OTH	2,286	4.1%	2.1%
Green	1,609	2.9%	5.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.0%
CON Majority	16,526	29.6%	4.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

36%

LAB

63%

LIB

OTH

Green

Reform

St Helens North

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Conor McGinn (LAB)
County/Area:	Merseyside (North West)
Electorate:	75,593
Turnout:	62.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	24,870	52.3%	62.7%
CON	12,661	26.6%	15.7%
Reform	5,396	11.3%	7.9%
LIB	2,668	5.6%	5.8%
Green	1,966	4.1%	5.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	2.1%
LAB Majority	12,209	25.7%	47.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

St Helens South and Whiston

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Marie Rimmer (LAB)
County/Area:	Merseyside (North West)
Electorate:	79,061
Turnout:	63.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	29,457	58.5%	66.5%
CON	10,335	20.5%	12.9%
Reform	5,353	10.6%	6.9%
LIB	2,886	5.7%	5.8%
Green	2,282	4.5%	5.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	2.1%
LAB Majority	19,122	38.0%	53.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

St Ives

Prediction: LIB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Derek Thomas (CON)
County/Area:	Cornwall (South West)
Electorate:	68,795
Turnout:	74.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	25,365	49.3%	30.3%
LIB	21,085	41.0%	35.7%
LAB	3,553	6.9%	21.9%
Green	964	1.9%	4.5%
OTH	446	0.9%	1.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	6.3%
CON Majority	4,280	8.3%	5.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

32%

LIB

58%

LAB

Green

OTH

Reform

Stafford

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Theo Clarke (CON)
County/Area:	Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	72,572
Turnout:	70.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,992	58.6%	32.1%
LAB	15,615	30.5%	46.9%
LIB	3,175	6.2%	6.2%
Green	2,367	4.6%	6.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	6.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.5%
CON Majority	14,377	28.1%	14.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

16%

LAB

84%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Staffordshire Moorlands

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Karen Bradley (CON)
County/Area:	Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	65,485
Turnout:	66.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,192	64.6%	35.5%
LAB	11,764	26.9%	42.8%
LIB	2,469	5.7%	6.3%
Green	1,231	2.8%	5.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.6%
CON Majority	16,428	37.6%	7.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

33%

LAB

67%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Staffordshire South

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Gavin Williamson (CON)
County/Area:	Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	73,668
Turnout:	67.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	36,520	73.0%	41.4%
LAB	8,270	16.5%	35.2%
LIB	3,280	6.6%	6.9%
Green	1,935	3.9%	6.1%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.5%
CON Majority	28,250	56.5%	6.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

66%

LAB

34%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Stalybridge and Hyde

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Jonathan Reynolds (LAB)
County/Area:	Eastern Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	73,064
Turnout:	58.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,025	44.9%	58.8%
CON	16,079	38.0%	20.2%
Reform	3,591	8.5%	7.6%
LIB	1,827	4.3%	5.6%
Green	1,411	3.3%	5.9%
OTH	435	1.0%	1.8%
LAB Majority	2,946	7.0%	38.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Stevenage

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Stephen McPartland (CON)
County/Area:	Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	71,562
Turnout:	66.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	25,328	53.1%	28.9%
LAB	16,766	35.2%	49.5%
LIB	4,132	8.7%	7.3%
Green	1,457	3.1%	6.1%
Reform	0	0.0%	6.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.4%
CON Majority	8,562	18.0%	20.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

10%

LAB

90%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Stockport

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Navendu Mishra (LAB)
County/Area:	Eastern Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	65,391
Turnout:	63.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,695	52.0%	61.7%
CON	11,656	27.9%	16.6%
LIB	5,043	12.1%	8.8%
Reform	1,918	4.6%	5.3%
Green	1,403	3.4%	6.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.5%
LAB Majority	10,039	24.1%	45.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Stockton North

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Alex Cunningham (LAB)
County/Area:	Teesside (North East)
Electorate:	66,649
Turnout:	61.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,728	43.1%	56.1%
CON	16,701	40.6%	22.6%
Reform	3,907	9.5%	9.7%
LIB	1,631	4.0%	5.3%
OTH	1,189	2.9%	2.5%
Green	0	0.0%	3.7%
LAB Majority	1,027	2.5%	33.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

98%

CON

Reform

LIB

OTH

Green

Stockton South

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Matt Vickers (CON)
County/Area:	Teesside (North East)
Electorate:	76,870
Turnout:	71.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,764	50.7%	28.4%
LAB	22,504	41.1%	53.7%
LIB	2,338	4.3%	4.9%
Reform	2,196	4.0%	7.6%
Green	0	0.0%	3.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.6%
CON Majority	5,260	9.6%	25.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

95%

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Stoke-on-Trent Central

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Jo Gideon (CON)
County/Area:	Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	55,419
Turnout:	57.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	14,557	45.4%	22.0%
LAB	13,887	43.3%	58.0%
Reform	1,691	5.3%	8.1%
LIB	1,116	3.5%	5.6%
Green	819	2.6%	4.5%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.9%
CON Majority	670	2.1%	36.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

99%

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Stoke-on-Trent North

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Jonathan Gullis (CON)
County/Area:	Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	68,298
Turnout:	58.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,974	52.3%	25.9%
LAB	14,688	36.6%	53.2%
Reform	2,374	5.9%	9.5%
LIB	1,268	3.2%	5.2%
Green	508	1.3%	4.2%
OTH	322	0.8%	2.0%
CON Majority	6,286	15.7%	27.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

96%

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Stoke-on-Trent South

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Jack Brereton (CON)
County/Area:	Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	64,491
Turnout:	61.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,632	62.2%	31.6%
LAB	13,361	33.7%	49.7%
LIB	1,611	4.1%	5.2%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.2%
Green	0	0.0%	3.6%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.7%
CON Majority	11,271	28.5%	18.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

14%

LAB

86%

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Stone

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Bill Cash (CON)
County/Area:	Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	69,378
Turnout:	71.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,687	63.6%	36.9%
LAB	11,742	23.6%	39.4%
LIB	4,412	8.9%	8.3%
Green	2,002	4.0%	6.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.4%
CON Majority	19,945	40.0%	2.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

44%

LAB

56%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Stourbridge

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Suzanne Webb (CON)
County/Area:	Black Country (West Midlands)
Electorate:	69,891
Turnout:	65.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,534	60.3%	33.2%
LAB	13,963	30.6%	46.1%
LIB	2,523	5.5%	6.3%
Green	1,048	2.3%	5.1%
OTH	621	1.4%	1.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.9%
CON Majority	13,571	29.7%	12.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

21%

LAB

79%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Stratford-on-Avon

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Nadhim Zahawi (CON)
County/Area:	Warwickshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	74,037
Turnout:	74.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	33,343	60.6%	38.1%
LIB	13,371	24.3%	18.8%
LAB	6,222	11.3%	28.6%
Green	2,112	3.8%	6.7%
Reform	0	0.0%	6.6%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.2%
CON Majority	19,972	36.3%	9.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

73%

LIB

LAB

24%

Green

Reform

OTH

Streatham

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Bell Ribeiro-Addy (LAB)
County/Area:	Lambeth (London)
Electorate:	84,783
Turnout:	66.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	30,976	54.8%	62.6%
LIB	13,286	23.5%	14.6%
CON	9,060	16.0%	11.4%
Green	2,567	4.5%	8.1%
Reform	624	1.1%	2.4%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.9%
LAB Majority	17,690	31.3%	48.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

LIB

CON

Green

Reform

OTH

Stretford and Urmston

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Kate Green (LAB)
County/Area:	Central Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	72,372
Turnout:	69.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	30,195	60.3%	66.2%
CON	13,778	27.5%	16.7%
LIB	2,969	5.9%	5.6%
Reform	1,768	3.5%	5.0%
Green	1,357	2.7%	5.4%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.2%
LAB Majority	16,417	32.8%	49.5% Pred Maj

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Result shown is the original general election result, before the resignation of Kate Green. Andrew Western (Labour) won the seat in a by-election on 15 December 2022.

Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Stroud

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Siobhan Baillie (CON)
County/Area:	Gloucestershire (South West)
Electorate:	84,537
Turnout:	78.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,582	47.9%	26.7%
LAB	27,742	42.1%	52.5%
Green	4,954	7.5%	9.4%
Reform	1,085	1.6%	5.9%
OTH	567	0.9%	1.5%
LIB	0	0.0%	4.0%
CON Majority	3,840	5.8%	25.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

94%

Green

Reform

OTH

LIB

Suffolk Central and Ipswich North

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Dan Poulter (CON)
County/Area:	Suffolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	80,037
Turnout:	70.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	35,253	62.7%	35.0%
LAB	11,862	21.1%	38.7%
LIB	6,485	11.5%	10.0%
Green	2,650	4.7%	7.9%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.0%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.4%
CON Majority	23,391	41.6%	3.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

41%

LAB

59%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Suffolk Coastal

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Therese Coffey (CON)
County/Area:	Suffolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	81,910
Turnout:	71.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,958	56.5%	33.1%
LAB	12,425	21.3%	37.7%
LIB	8,719	15.0%	12.9%
Green	2,713	4.7%	7.8%
OTH	1,493	2.6%	1.6%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.0%
CON Majority	20,533	35.2%	4.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

42%

LAB

58%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Suffolk South

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	James Cartlidge (CON)
County/Area:	Suffolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	76,201
Turnout:	70.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	33,270	62.2%	35.6%
LAB	10,373	19.4%	36.0%
LIB	6,702	12.5%	11.7%
Green	3,144	5.9%	8.2%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.3%
CON Majority	22,897	42.8%	0.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

49%

LAB

51%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Suffolk West

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Matt Hancock (CON)
County/Area:	Suffolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	80,193
Turnout:	64.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	33,842	65.8%	35.4%
LAB	10,648	20.7%	38.9%
LIB	4,685	9.1%	9.2%
Green	2,262	4.4%	6.9%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.5%
CON Majority	23,194	45.1%	3.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

42%

LAB

57%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Sunderland Central

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Julie Elliott (LAB)
County/Area:	Newcastle area (North East)
Electorate:	72,680
Turnout:	59.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,336	42.2%	58.5%
CON	15,372	35.4%	19.1%
Reform	5,047	11.6%	8.6%
LIB	3,025	7.0%	6.6%
Green	1,212	2.8%	5.1%
OTH	484	1.1%	2.1%
LAB Majority	2,964	6.8%	39.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Surrey East

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Claire Coutinho (CON)
County/Area:	Surrey (South East)
Electorate:	83,148
Turnout:	71.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	35,624	59.7%	37.6%
LIB	11,584	19.4%	16.7%
LAB	8,247	13.8%	30.2%
Green	2,340	3.9%	7.1%
OTH	1,895	3.2%	1.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.0%
CON Majority	24,040	40.3%	7.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

67%

LIB

LAB

30%

Green

OTH

Reform

Surrey Heath

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Michael Gove (CON)
County/Area:	Surrey (South East)
Electorate:	81,349
Turnout:	72.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	34,358	58.6%	36.8%
LIB	16,009	27.3%	20.1%
LAB	5,407	9.2%	28.5%
Green	2,252	3.8%	7.1%
OTH	628	1.1%	1.1%
Reform	0	0.0%	6.4%
CON Majority	18,349	31.3%	8.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

70%

LIB

LAB

25%

Green

OTH

Reform

Surrey South West

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Jeremy Hunt (CON)
County/Area:	Surrey (South East)
Electorate:	79,096
Turnout:	76.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,191	53.3%	36.4%
LIB	23,374	38.7%	28.1%
LAB	4,775	7.9%	24.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	5.2%
Green	0	0.0%	4.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.1%
CON Majority	8,817	14.6%	8.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

63%

LIB

23%

LAB

14%

Reform

Green

OTH

Sussex Mid

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Mims Davies (CON)
County/Area:	West Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	85,146
Turnout:	73.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	33,455	53.3%	33.2%
LIB	15,258	24.3%	19.3%
LAB	11,218	17.9%	33.6%
Green	2,234	3.6%	6.7%
OTH	597	1.0%	1.2%
Reform	0	0.0%	5.9%
CON Majority	18,197	29.0%	0.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

46%

LIB

LAB

50%

Green

OTH

Reform

Sutton and Cheam

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Paul Scully (CON)
County/Area:	Sutton (London)
Electorate:	71,779
Turnout:	70.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	25,235	50.0%	33.3%
LIB	16,884	33.4%	28.9%
LAB	7,200	14.3%	26.6%
Green	1,168	2.3%	4.6%
Reform	0	0.0%	5.6%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.0%
CON Majority	8,351	16.5%	4.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

52%

LIB

26%

LAB

22%

Green

Reform

OTH

Sutton Coldfield

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Andrew Mitchell (CON)
County/Area:	Birmingham (West Midlands)
Electorate:	75,638
Turnout:	69.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,604	60.4%	36.5%
LAB	12,332	23.6%	39.5%
LIB	6,358	12.2%	9.6%
Green	2,031	3.9%	6.7%
Reform	0	0.0%	6.5%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.2%
CON Majority	19,272	36.8%	3.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

44%

LAB

56%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Swindon North

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Justin Tomlinson (CON)
County/Area:	Wiltshire (South West)
Electorate:	82,441
Turnout:	66.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,584	59.1%	30.6%
LAB	16,413	29.8%	47.6%
LIB	4,408	8.0%	7.0%
Green	1,710	3.1%	6.1%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.5%
CON Majority	16,171	29.3%	17.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

13%

LAB

87%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Swindon South

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Robert Buckland (CON)
County/Area:	Wiltshire (South West)
Electorate:	73,118
Turnout:	69.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,536	52.3%	28.5%
LAB	19,911	39.2%	52.5%
LIB	4,299	8.5%	7.0%
Reform	0	0.0%	6.2%
Green	0	0.0%	4.5%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.3%
CON Majority	6,625	13.1%	24.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

94%

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH