East Midlands: Majority Sorted Seats

East Midlands Prediction

Party	2017 Votes	2017 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	50.7%	31	51.8%	1	0	+1	32
LAB	40.5%	15	33.3%	0	1	-1	14
LIB	4.3%	0	8.4%	0	0	+0	0
Brexit	0.0%	0	2.5%	0	0	+0	0
Green	1.5%	0	2.4%	0	0	+0	0
UKIP	2.4%	0	0.0%	0	0	+0	0
Other	0.6%	0	1.6%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Leicester South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, South Holland and The Deepings, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Erewash (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bolsover (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Midlands seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2017	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Brexit %	Green %	NAT %	UKIP %	MIN %	OTH %	2017 Win	Pred Win
18	551	Leicester South	Jon Ashworth	75,534	66.9	19.7	63.8	6.3	5.1	5.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
32	537	Nottingham East	Chris Leslie	61,762	63.7	20.7	58.7	7.2	6.1	5.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
41	528	Leicester East	Keith Vaz	77,788	67.4	23.2	57.3	5.5	7.4	4.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
71	498	Nottingham South	Lilian Greenwood	71,178	67.6	27.3	52.7	8.7	6.8	4.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
96	473	Leicester West	Liz Kendall	64,834	57.9	28.8	49.4	7.6	9.6	4.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
101	468	Derby South	Margaret Beckett	69,918	64.8	31.3	50.9	7.8	10.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
120	449	Nottingham North	Alex Norris	66,894	57.3	30.2	47.9	6.9	11.4	3.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
132	437	High Peak	Ruth George	73,254	73.5	34.8	50.3	9.1	4.2	1.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
177	392	Chesterfield	Toby Perkins	72,063	66.5	32.7	42.2	9.6	9.8	3.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
212	357	Gedling	Vernon Coaker	71,221	72.6	37.4	42.3	8.2	9.2	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
216	353	Derby North	Chris Williamson	69,919	69.6	36.7	40.7	8.9	8.7	2.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
220	349	Lincoln	Karen Lee	73,111	66.6	39.9	43.2	6.9	6.3	2.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
221	348	Bassetlaw	John Mann	78,535	66.5	36.3	39.7	13.1	10.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
222	347	Bolsover	Dennis Skinner	73,429	63.4	38.2	41.2	7.3	9.2	2.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
245	324	Ashfield	Gloria De Piero	78,099	64.0	37.6	35.5	6.8	13.8	3.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.2	LAB	CON
260	309	Broxtowe	Anna Soubry	74,017	75.0	42.4	33.0	0.0	0.0	1.5	0.0	0.0	22.9	0.2	CON	CON
281	288	Loughborough	Nicky Morgan	79,607	68.0	51.5	35.2	9.2	0.0	3.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	CON	CON
287	282	Rushcliffe	Kenneth Clarke	74,740	78.0	51.5	34.3	12.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
297	272	Northampton North	Michael Ellis	58,183	69.4	54.4	35.1	7.9	0.0	2.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
298	271	Northampton South	Andrew Lewer	60,993	67.3	54.5	35.1	7.7	0.0	2.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
307	262	Corby	Tom Pursglove	82,439	72.8	56.2	35.3	8.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
333	236	Erewash	Maggie Throup	72,991	68.2	57.2	32.5	7.2	0.0	2.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.9	CON	CON
339	230	Derbyshire North East	Lee Rowley	72,097	69.9	57.4	32.3	8.3	0.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
354	215	Mansfield	Ben Bradley	77,811	64.5	59.8	32.6	6.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.9	CON	CON
355	214	Harborough	Neil O'Brien	78,647	73.2	54.9	27.6	13.4	0.0	2.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
356	213	Sherwood	Mark Spencer	76,196	70.0	58.7	31.5	7.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
386	183	Derbyshire Mid	Pauline Latham	67,466	74.7	58.6	29.0	9.7	0.0	2.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
405	164	Kettering	Philip Hollobone	71,523	69.1	60.0	28.9	7.7	0.0	2.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
407	162	Amber Valley	Nigel Mills	68,065	67.3	60.9	29.7	7.3	0.0	2.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
424	145	Derbyshire South	Heather Wheeler	76,341	68.9	60.6	28.6	8.5	0.0	2.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
425	144	Derbyshire Dales	Patrick McLoughlin	64,418	77.0	59.0	26.9	11.4	0.0	2.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
444	125	Leicestershire North West	Andrew Bridgen	75,362	71.0	60.6	27.1	9.0	0.0	2.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.9	CON	CON
468	101	Wellingborough	Peter Bone	79,258	67.2	62.2	27.6	7.7	0.0	2.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
488	81	Charnwood	Edward Argar	78,071	70.7	62.5	26.0	9.3	0.0	2.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
489	80	Bosworth	David Tredinnick	80,633	69.7	59.4	23.0	15.2	0.0	2.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
503	66	Northamptonshire South	Andrea Leadsom	85,756	75.8	61.7	24.3	10.1	0.0	2.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	CON	CON
505	64	Gainsborough	Edward Leigh	75,893	67.8	62.8	25.3	10.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	CON	CON
513	56	Newark	Robert Jenrick	75,526	72.9	63.5	25.3	9.5	0.0	1.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
520	49	Leicestershire South	Alberto Costa	78,895	71.9	63.5	24.8	9.4	0.0	2.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
542	27	Rutland and Melton	Alan Duncan	78,463	73.4	62.6	21.9	11.4	0.0	3.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.1	CON	CON
547	22	Grantham and Stamford	Nick Boles	81,762	69.2	64.8	23.4	9.6	0.0	2.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
549	20	Daventry	Chris Heaton-Harris	75,335	73.9	64.6	22.6	10.3	0.0	2.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
556	13	Sleaford and North Hykeham	Caroline Johnson	90,925	72.4	66.5	22.1	8.5	0.0	1.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	CON	CON
562	7	Louth and Horncastle	Victoria Atkins	79,006	66.8	68.5	22.5	8.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.9	CON	CON
567	2	Boston and Skegness	Matt Warman	68,391	62.7	72.6	20.7	6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.7	CON	CON
568	1	South Holland and The Deepings	John Hayes	76,381	65.9	73.0	17.9	6.4	0.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.7	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.