East Midlands: Majority Sorted Seats

East Midlands Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 50.7%31 28.2%010-1021
LAB 40.5%15 31.7%100+1025
LIB 4.3%0 5.0%00+00
UKIP 2.4%0 6.2%00+00
Green 1.5%0 4.3%00+00
ChUK 0.0%0 4.0%00+00
Brexit 0.0%0 18.7%00+00
Minor 0.6%0 1.9%00+00

This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Leicester South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, South Holland and The Deepings, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Amber Valley (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bassetlaw (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Midlands seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
NAT
%
ChUK
%
Brexit
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
22528Leicester South Jon Ashworth75,53466.912.260.74.23.25.70.03.89.60.00.6LABLAB
31519Leicester East Keith Vaz77,78867.413.456.44.03.96.20.03.511.80.00.9LABLAB
38512Nottingham East Chris Leslie61,76263.712.654.44.74.36.00.04.012.90.01.0LABLAB
90460Nottingham South Lilian Greenwood71,17867.617.447.65.04.75.80.04.114.30.01.2LABLAB
105445Leicester West Liz Kendall64,83457.916.244.44.26.05.50.03.918.10.01.7LABLAB
117433Derby South Margaret Beckett69,91864.818.044.63.95.94.90.03.717.70.01.3LABLAB
127423Nottingham North Alex Norris66,89457.316.041.63.77.04.80.03.721.20.02.0LABLAB
173377Chesterfield Toby Perkins72,06366.519.839.05.56.24.50.04.119.00.01.9LABLAB
215335Gedling Vernon Coaker71,22172.624.938.64.25.44.30.04.116.70.01.8LABLAB
219331Bolsover Dennis Skinner73,42963.422.135.74.07.03.90.03.721.30.02.2LABLAB
223327Bassetlaw John Mann78,53566.525.438.54.05.73.20.03.817.40.02.0LABLAB
226324Derby North Chris Williamson69,91969.624.737.45.45.54.30.04.116.80.01.7LABLAB
237313Lincoln Karen Lee73,11166.624.135.24.46.44.50.03.919.50.02.0LABLAB
242308High Peak Ruth George73,25473.527.638.46.04.53.50.04.414.00.01.7LABLAB
253297Northampton South Andrew Lewer60,99367.324.933.64.56.64.60.03.820.10.01.8CONLAB
255295Ashfield Gloria De Piero78,09964.024.432.93.67.24.00.03.721.90.02.4LABLAB
260290Northampton North Michael Ellis58,18369.425.934.04.16.44.50.03.819.40.01.9CONLAB
266284Broxtowe Anna Soubry74,01775.027.034.65.25.64.50.04.217.10.01.8CONLAB
272278Mansfield Ben Bradley77,81164.525.032.03.37.44.00.03.622.40.02.3CONLAB
285265Corby Tom Pursglove82,43972.827.733.54.26.23.90.03.818.80.02.0CONLAB
287263Loughborough Nicky Morgan79,60768.028.033.15.15.65.20.04.317.00.01.7CONLAB
295255Derbyshire North East Lee Rowley72,09769.927.432.14.16.63.90.03.820.00.02.1CONLAB
303247Erewash Maggie Throup72,99168.228.732.34.26.23.70.03.918.90.02.2CONLAB
307243Sherwood Mark Spencer76,19670.028.430.93.86.64.00.03.820.20.02.2CONLAB
320230Rushcliffe Kenneth Clarke74,74078.030.730.95.95.15.30.04.615.80.01.6CONLAB
333217Amber Valley Nigel Mills68,06567.331.029.24.06.53.60.03.819.70.02.2CONCON
346204Kettering Philip Hollobone71,52369.132.028.84.56.23.60.04.018.80.02.1CONCON
348202Wellingborough Peter Bone79,25867.230.426.74.37.14.10.03.821.40.02.2CONCON
353197Harborough Neil O'Brien78,64773.230.326.39.15.74.80.04.817.30.01.7CONCON
361189Derbyshire South Heather Wheeler76,34168.933.328.44.75.93.50.04.118.10.02.1CONCON
375175Derbyshire Mid Pauline Latham67,46674.734.728.54.95.43.70.04.216.70.01.9CONCON
376174Leicestershire North West Andrew Bridgen75,36271.032.926.75.96.13.40.04.118.80.02.1CONCON
405145Charnwood Edward Argar78,07170.734.125.14.76.34.50.04.019.30.02.0CONCON
414136Derbyshire Dales Patrick McLoughlin64,41877.035.225.76.35.63.70.04.417.20.01.9CONCON
435115Leicestershire South Alberto Costa78,89571.934.423.44.96.64.50.04.020.10.02.1CONCON
436114Gainsborough Edward Leigh75,89367.834.723.76.16.33.50.04.219.30.02.1CONCON
437113Newark Robert Jenrick75,52672.935.624.55.46.13.50.04.118.70.02.0CONCON
439111Boston and Skegness Matt Warman68,39162.730.419.23.09.44.00.03.328.10.02.7CONCON
442108Bosworth David Tredinnick80,63369.732.921.410.86.03.50.04.918.50.02.0CONCON
447103Grantham and Stamford Nick Boles81,76269.234.322.45.46.93.90.04.021.00.02.2CONCON
45991Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins79,00666.833.721.34.27.63.90.03.823.00.02.4CONCON
47377Northamptonshire South Andrea Leadsom85,75675.836.323.25.86.04.20.04.218.40.01.9CONCON
48664Sleaford and North Hykeham Caroline Johnson90,92572.435.621.24.67.14.00.03.921.40.02.2CONCON
48862Daventry Chris Heaton-Harris75,33573.935.721.16.26.73.80.04.220.30.02.1CONCON
49555Rutland and Melton Alan Duncan78,46373.435.319.96.86.74.60.04.420.30.02.1CONCON
53119South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes76,38165.936.417.53.68.13.70.03.524.60.02.5CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.