East Midlands: Sorted Seats

East Midlands Prediction

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	29.4%	15	20.6%	1	13	-12	3
LAB	35.3%	29	23.0%	0	25	-25	4
LIB	6.4%	0	10.0%	0	0	+0	0
Reform	18.9%	2	34.9%	37	0	+37	39
Green	6.3%	0	8.5%	0	0	+0	0
Other	3.7%	1	3.1%	0	0	+0	1

This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Nottingham East' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Rutland and Stamford', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Rutland and Stamford (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Nottingham East (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Midlands seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2024	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	MIN %	OTH %	2024 Win	Pred Win
41	146	Nottingham East	Nadia Whittome	69,395	52.5	6.9	31.4	10.3	26.8	17.1	6.2	1.3	LAB	LAB
77	110	Gedling	Michael Payne	77,006	63.3	15.0	34.2	9.1	31.9	9.0	0.0	0.9	LAB	LAB
86	100	Nottingham South	Lilian Greenwood	64,255	51.2	12.4	30.4	9.6	30.7	11.3	4.6	1.1	LAB	Reform
100	86	Derby North	Catherine Atkinson	71,900	56.9	14.8	31.0	8.7	34.1	10.5	0.0	0.8	LAB	Reform
103	83	Lincoln	Hamish Falconer	72,313	58.3	14.5	30.5	8.8	34.8	9.1	1.4	1.0	LAB	Reform
105	81	Chesterfield	Toby Perkins	71,654	58.0	15.0	30.5	8.4	36.2	7.8	1.1	0.9	LAB	Reform
105	81	Northampton North	Lucy Rigby	75,575	55.3	14.0	29.6	9.2	34.1	8.8	3.1	1.3	LAB	Reform
110	76	Broxtowe	Juliet Campbell	71,923	66.5	15.3	30.0	11.0	32.1	9.5	0.9	1.4	LAB	Reform
111	76	High Peak	Jonathan Brian Pearce	74,385	66.2	19.4	34.0	8.0	29.4	8.6	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
111	75	Nottingham North and Kimberley	Alex Norris	73,768	47.5	13.5	27.9	7.7	39.1	10.8	0.0	1.0	LAB	Reform
115	71	Leicester West	Liz Kendall	74,102	47.8	13.5	27.1	9.4	35.5	12.7	0.0	1.8	LAB	Reform
117	69	Derby South	Baggy Shanker	72,952	51.3	10.0	23.1	7.9	39.5	7.7	11.4	0.4	LAB	Reform
118	69	Rushcliffe	James William Naish	79,160	72.9	21.6	34.5	10.2	22.9	9.6	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
118	68	Leicester South	Shockat Adam	70,867	59.0	7.0	19.7	9.4	23.4	13.1	27.4	0.0	MIN	MIN
120	66	Bolsover	Natalie Fleet	77,207	55.0	14.6	26.3	6.7	42.4	9.3	0.0	0.8	LAB	Reform
121	65	Loughborough	Jeevun Sandher	68,996	61.2	19.0	29.8	9.8	31.4	9.3	0.0	0.7	LAB	Reform
121	65	Ashfield	Lee Anderson	68,929	57.9	7.1	17.7	4.1	53.6	4.4	13.1	0.0	Reform	Reform
135	51	Erewash	Adam Thompson	71,497	60.2	19.7	24.9	9.0	35.8	9.2	0.0	1.4	LAB	Reform
137	49	Amber Valley	Linsey Farnsworth	71,546	59.4	17.3	22.0	8.1	43.6	7.8	0.0	1.1	LAB	Reform
137	49	Sherwood Forest	Michelle Welsh	78,894	61.7	19.4	23.6	8.7	38.8	7.6	0.0	2.0	LAB	Reform
137	49	Corby and East Northamptonshire	Lee Barron	78,787	62.9	23.0	27.1	8.7	31.5	8.4	0.0	1.3	LAB	Reform
137	49	Bassetlaw	Jo White	78,173	57.4	20.8	24.8	7.9	38.0	7.4	0.0	1.0	LAB	Reform
137	49	Wellingborough and Rushden	Gen Kitchen	77,559	56.7	19.6	23.6	8.7	38.0	8.8	0.0	1.3	LAB	Reform
141	45	Derbyshire South	Samantha Niblett	73,714	62.0	21.2	24.1	9.6	35.2	7.5	0.0	2.4	LAB	Reform
142	44	Northampton South	Mike Reader	70,393	62.4	22.5	25.3	10.7	31.0	8.9	0.0	1.5	LAB	Reform
143	43	Mansfield	Steve Yemm	73,817	55.7	19.4	21.6	7.0	43.1	6.8	0.0	2.2	LAB	Reform
143	43	Kettering	Rosie Wrighting	79,390	63.3	20.3	22.4	8.2	33.0	14.1	0.0	2.2	LAB	Reform
145	41	Derbyshire Mid	Jonathan Peter Tom Davies	69,281	68.6	25.5	25.0	9.2	29.0	9.6	0.7	0.9	LAB	Reform
145	41	Derbyshire North East	Louise Elizabeth Jones	73,139	62.7	25.7	24.5	8.5	32.5	7.7	0.0	1.1	LAB	Reform
145	41	Leicestershire North West	Amanda Hack	77,757	62.5	23.1	21.9	8.4	35.8	8.2	0.0	2.6	LAB	Reform
148	39	Derbyshire Dales	John Michael Whitby	73,317	69.9	27.0	24.5	12.2	26.9	8.0	0.0	1.5	LAB	CON
153	33	Leicester East	Shivani Raja	76,560	61.0	18.1	13.4	15.2	31.3	7.6	9.0	5.4	CON	Reform
153	33	Leicestershire Mid	Peter Bedford	75,933	63.3	25.8	20.5	10.0	33.9	9.0	0.0	0.9	CON	Reform
155	31	Daventry	Stuart Andrew	80,879	65.6	24.9	19.0	14.5	33.3	7.3	0.0	1.0	CON	Reform
156	31	Harborough, Oadby and Wigston	Neil O'Brien	77,407	65.1	28.0	21.9	12.7	25.9	10.6	0.0	1.0	CON	CON
157	29	Northamptonshire South	Sarah Bool	78,233	68.6	26.8	19.9	12.9	30.1	7.6	0.5	2.2	CON	Reform
157	29	Newark	Robert Jenrick	80,028	66.8	27.9	21.0	10.2	31.7	6.9	0.4	2.0	CON	Reform
158	28	Gainsborough	Sir Edward Leigh	75,836	61.6	24.6	17.5	12.4	38.0	6.3	0.0	1.2	CON	Reform
160	26	Sleaford and North Hykeham	Caroline Johnson	75,807	64.1	25.0	17.0	9.0	38.0	7.2	0.0	3.9	CON	Reform
161	25	Grantham and Bourne	Gareth Davies	73,280	62.9	25.3	16.5	8.8	37.7	7.6	0.0	4.1	CON	Reform
161	25	Leicestershire South	Alberto Costa	78,543	65.4	25.9	16.9	15.7	33.9	6.8	0.0	0.9	CON	Reform
162	24	Melton and Syston	Edward Argar	74,316	61.9	26.5	16.8	9.7	35.9	9.0	0.0	2.1	CON	Reform
162	24	Boston and Skegness	Richard Tice	75,811	53.4	20.4	10.0	6.3	56.1	5.1	0.0	2.0	Reform	Reform
163	23	Louth and Horncastle	Victoria Atkins	76,882	60.5	24.5	13.5	8.4	44.1	6.6	0.0	2.7	CON	Reform
166	20	South Holland and The Deepings	John Hayes	78,473	58.5	24.7	11.8	8.0	43.8	5.9	0.0	5.9	CON	Reform
166	20	Hinckley and Bosworth	Luke Evans	76,431	62.5	25.3	12.3	21.3	34.4	5.4	0.0	1.2	CON	Reform
175	12	Rutland and Stamford	Alicia Kearns	71,711	67.7	32.1	15.7	15.0	28.8	7.1	0.0	1.2	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.