East Midlands: Majority Sorted Seats

East Midlands Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 50.7%31 45.6%04-427
LAB 40.5%15 38.4%40+419
LIB 4.3%0 5.4%00+00
UKIP 2.4%0 6.5%00+00
Green 1.5%0 3.3%00+00
Minor 0.6%0 0.9%00+00

This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Leicester South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, South Holland and The Deepings, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Amber Valley (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Lincoln (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Midlands seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
29540Leicester South Jon Ashworth75,53466.916.571.
36533Nottingham East Chris Leslie61,76263.716.569.
59510Leicester East Keith Vaz77,78867.419.
105464Nottingham South Lilian Greenwood71,17867.625.860.
123446Leicester West Liz Kendall64,83457.926.358.
128441Nottingham North Alex Norris66,89457.326.
146423Derby South Margaret Beckett69,91864.828.456.
168401Chesterfield Toby Perkins72,06366.529.752.
204365Bolsover Dennis Skinner73,42963.435.449.
215354Bassetlaw John Mann78,53566.538.
216353Gedling Vernon Coaker71,22172.637.749.
236333High Peak Ruth George73,25473.540.347.
237332Derby North Chris Williamson69,91969.639.346.
239330Lincoln Karen Lee73,11166.639.645.
249320Ashfield Gloria De Piero78,09964.036.640.
268301Broxtowe Anna Soubry74,01775.041.743.
271298Northampton North Michael Ellis58,18369.442.
272297Mansfield Ben Bradley77,81164.541.542.
277292Northampton South Andrew Lewer60,99367.341.841.
287282Corby Tom Pursglove82,43972.844.
294275Derbyshire North East Lee Rowley72,09769.944.
304265Loughborough Nicky Morgan79,60768.044.839.
308261Erewash Maggie Throup72,99168.
310259Sherwood Mark Spencer76,19670.046.439.
325244Rushcliffe Kenneth Clarke74,74078.046.736.
347222Amber Valley Nigel Mills68,06567.351.436.
368201Kettering Philip Hollobone71,52369.152.834.
369200Harborough Neil O'Brien78,64773.247.228.613.
375194Derbyshire South Heather Wheeler76,34168.953.633.
378191Derbyshire Mid Pauline Latham67,46674.753.533.
379190Wellingborough Peter Bone79,25867.252.331.
391178Leicestershire North West Andrew Bridgen75,36271.
425144Derbyshire Dales Patrick McLoughlin64,41877.054.929.
430139Charnwood Edward Argar78,07170.755.328.
455114Bosworth David Tredinnick80,63369.751.622.
459110Leicestershire South Alberto Costa78,89571.956.326.
461108Newark Robert Jenrick75,52672.957.627.
463106Gainsborough Edward Leigh75,89367.856.726.
48782Northamptonshire South Andrea Leadsom85,75675.857.425.
49475Grantham and Stamford Nick Boles81,76269.256.924.
50366Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins79,00666.858.824.
51554Sleaford and North Hykeham Caroline Johnson90,92572.459.
51950Boston and Skegness Matt Warman68,39162.758.522.82.811.
52346Daventry Chris Heaton-Harris75,33573.958.622.
53039Rutland and Melton Alan Duncan78,46373.457.720.
5663South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes76,38165.964.818.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.