East Midlands: Majority Sorted Seats

East Midlands Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 54.8%38 40.0%013-1325
LAB 31.7%8 41.0%130+1321
LIB 7.8%0 5.6%00+00
Reform 1.5%0 2.7%00+00
Green 2.6%0 6.0%00+00
Other 1.7%0 4.8%00+00

This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Nottingham East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, South Holland and The Deepings, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Bassetlaw (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Loughborough (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Midlands seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
25538Nottingham East Nadia Whittome66,26260.416.
33530Leicester South Jonathan Ashworth77,70864.517.
67496Nottingham South Lilian Greenwood79,48560.621.
113450Leicester West Liz Kendall64,94053.526.
116447Nottingham North Alex Norris66,49553.126.954.
134429Derby South Margaret Beckett73,06258.
145418Leicester East Claudia Webbe78,43363.
187376Chesterfield Toby Perkins71,03463.629.748.
202361High Peak Robert Largan74,26572.933.750.
206357Gedling Tom Randall71,36670.033.649.
208355Derby North Amanda Solloway73,19964.232.648.
217346Lincoln Karl McCartney74,94267.634.
233330Loughborough Jane Hunt79,76468.535.646.
239324Northampton South Andrew Lewer62,16365.736.
242321Broxtowe Darren Henry73,05275.736.
245318Rushcliffe Ruth Edwards77,04778.534.844.
259304Northampton North Michael Ellis58,76867.337.845.
262301Bolsover Mark Fletcher74,29261.837.
282281Ashfield Lee Anderson78,20462.624.329.
285278Corby Tom Pursglove86,15370.239.945.
302261Erewash Maggie Throup72,52367.340.343.
323240Derbyshire North East Lee Rowley72,34568.
325238Harborough Neil O'Brien80,15171.540.
331232Bassetlaw Brendan Clarke-Smith80,02463.543.
332231Sherwood Mark Spencer77,88867.744.
333230Derbyshire Mid Pauline Latham67,44273.
341222Kettering Philip Hollobone73,16467.543.538.
351212Mansfield Ben Bradley77,13163.946.
352211Wellingborough Peter Bone80,76564.344.
357206Derbyshire South Heather Wheeler79,33167.344.937.
366197Derbyshire Dales Sarah Dines65,08076.944.
370193Amber Valley Nigel Mills69,97665.145.937.
382181Leicestershire North West Andrew Bridgen78,93568.245.536.
400163Charnwood Edward Argar79,53469.645.834.
407156Northamptonshire South Andrea Leadsom90,84273.745.434.
411152Newark Robert Jenrick75,85072.246.635.
414149Leicestershire South Alberto Costa80,52071.446.334.
435128Rutland and Melton Alicia Kearns82,70570.546.
442121Bosworth Luke Evans81,54269.246.231.310.
451112Daventry Chris Heaton-Harris77,42374.147.632.
454109Gainsborough Edward Leigh76,34366.949.
455108Grantham and Stamford Gareth Davies81,50268.748.
49964Sleaford and North Hykeham Caroline Johnson94,76170.250.331.
54617Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins79,63465.754.
5549Boston and Skegness Matt Warman69,38160.156.428.
5576South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes75,97564.756.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.