East Midlands: Sorted Seats

East Midlands Prediction

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	29.4%	15	23.9%	0	12	-12	3
LAB	35.3%	29	21.6%	0	24	-24	5
LIB	6.4%	0	10.0%	0	0	+0	0
Reform	18.9%	2	33.3%	36	0	+36	38
Green	6.3%	0	8.5%	0	0	+0	0
Other	3.7%	1	2.7%	0	0	+0	1

This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Nottingham East' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Rutland and Stamford', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Rutland and Stamford (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Nottingham East (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Midlands seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2024	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	MIN %	OTH %	2024 Win	Pred Win
40	232	Nottingham East	Nadia Whittome	69,395	52.5	10.5	35.5	10.1	19.9	16.6	6.3	1.1	LAB	LAB
109	163	Nottingham South	Lilian Greenwood	64,255	51.2	15.9	30.4	10.4	26.9	10.8	4.7	1.0	LAB	LAB
117	155	Chesterfield	Toby Perkins	71,654	58.0	18.3	30.5	10.0	30.5	8.3	1.4	1.0	LAB	LAB
123	148	Nottingham North and Kimberley	Alex Norris	73,768	47.5	17.8	28.6	8.5	33.6	10.2	0.0	1.2	LAB	Reform
123	148	Leicester South	Shockat Adam	70,867	59.0	13.2	23.8	7.5	16.1	12.8	26.6	0.0	MIN	MIN
127	144	Leicester West	Liz Kendall	74,102	47.8	17.7	27.9	10.4	29.9	12.4	0.0	1.8	LAB	Reform
128	143	Gedling	Michael Payne	77,006	63.3	20.1	30.1	9.4	30.2	9.0	0.0	1.1	LAB	Reform
131	140	Derby South	Baggy Shanker	72,952	51.3	15.1	24.7	8.2	33.0	7.4	11.4	0.3	LAB	Reform
140	131	Ashfield	Lee Anderson	68,929	57.9	10.6	18.9	5.3	47.1	4.5	13.5	0.0	Reform	Reform
144	127	Lincoln	Hamish Falconer	72,313	58.3	18.5	26.5	9.8	33.3	9.3	1.5	1.0	LAB	Reform
148	123	Derby North	Catherine Atkinson	71,900	56.9	20.3	27.5	9.1	31.6	10.4	0.0	1.0	LAB	Reform
152	120	High Peak	Jonathan Brian Pearce	74,385	66.2	22.7	29.7	8.6	29.1	9.1	0.0	0.8	LAB	LAB
154	117	Northampton North	Lucy Rigby	75,575	55.3	19.0	25.7	9.2	32.5	9.0	3.4	1.2	LAB	Reform
155	117	Rushcliffe	James William Naish	79,160	72.9	23.6	30.3	10.5	24.4	10.1	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
155	116	Broxtowe	Juliet Campbell	71,923	66.5	20.1	26.5	11.4	29.6	9.8	1.1	1.4	LAB	Reform
165	106	Bolsover	Natalie Fleet	77,207	55.0	18.6	23.1	7.6	41.1	8.8	0.0	0.8	LAB	Reform
168	103	Loughborough	Jeevun Sandher	68,996	61.2	23.2	26.3	10.0	30.2	9.5	0.0	0.8	LAB	Reform
176	95	Corby and East Northamptonshire	Lee Barron	78,787	62.9	24.3	25.0	8.6	33.6	7.8	0.0	0.8	LAB	Reform
177	94	Erewash	Adam Thompson	71,497	60.2	23.6	23.5	9.0	34.9	8.1	0.0	0.8	LAB	Reform
178	93	Bassetlaw	Jo White	78,173	57.4	23.5	23.1	8.1	38.2	6.6	0.0	0.5	LAB	Reform
181	90	Sherwood Forest	Michelle Welsh	78,894	61.7	22.5	21.4	8.9	38.4	7.5	0.0	1.3	LAB	Reform
183	88	Amber Valley	Linsey Farnsworth	71,546	59.4	21.8	19.9	8.3	41.3	8.0	0.0	0.7	LAB	Reform
183	88	Northampton South	Mike Reader	70,393	62.4	25.7	23.8	9.8	31.3	8.4	0.0	1.0	LAB	Reform
186	85	Derbyshire South	Samantha Niblett	73,714	62.0	24.7	22.0	9.7	34.5	7.7	0.0	1.5	LAB	Reform
186	85	Wellingborough and Rushden	Gen Kitchen	77,559	56.7	23.9	20.9	8.4	36.9	9.0	0.0	0.9	LAB	Reform
186	85	Kettering	Rosie Wrighting	79,390	63.3	23.5	20.2	8.2	31.7	15.0	0.0	1.4	LAB	Reform
186	85	Derbyshire Dales	John Michael Whitby	73,317	69.9	26.2	22.9	12.1	30.6	7.4	0.0	0.8	LAB	Reform
189	82	Derbyshire Mid	Jonathan Peter Tom Davies	69,281	68.6	27.8	23.5	8.9	29.5	9.3	0.5	0.6	LAB	Reform
189	82	Mansfield	Steve Yemm	73,817	55.7	24.9	20.0	7.6	39.4	6.7	0.0	1.5	LAB	Reform
189	82	Derbyshire North East	Louise Elizabeth Jones	73,139	62.7	28.0	22.7	8.4	33.3	7.0	0.0	0.6	LAB	Reform
192	79	Leicestershire North West	Amanda Hack	77,757	62.5	25.8	19.8	8.7	35.6	8.4	0.0	1.6	LAB	Reform
205	66	Daventry	Stuart Andrew	80,879	65.6	25.8	16.9	13.9	35.2	7.7	0.0	0.6	CON	Reform
211	60	Northamptonshire South	Sarah Bool	78,233	68.6	27.4	17.8	12.6	32.2	8.1	0.4	1.4	CON	Reform
213	58	Gainsborough	Sir Edward Leigh	75,836	61.6	26.3	16.3	12.4	38.2	6.2	0.0	0.6	CON	Reform
216	55	Newark	Robert Jenrick	80,028	66.8	30.0	19.1	10.4	31.6	7.3	0.3	1.3	CON	Reform
218	53	Sleaford and North Hykeham	Caroline Johnson	75,807	64.1	27.2	16.0	9.6	37.5	7.2	0.0	2.4	CON	Reform
218	53	Leicestershire Mid	Peter Bedford	75,933	63.3	30.2	18.8	9.0	32.3	9.2	0.0	0.6	CON	Reform
219	53	Harborough, Oadby and Wigston	Neil O'Brien	77,407	65.1	32.1	20.7	11.2	25.3	10.0	0.0	0.6	CON	CON
223	48	Grantham and Bourne	Gareth Davies	73,280	62.9	28.2	15.6	9.6	36.0	7.9	0.0	2.6	CON	Reform
223	48	Leicestershire South	Alberto Costa	78,543	65.4	28.1	15.4	14.6	34.2	7.2	0.0	0.6	CON	Reform
225	47	Leicester East	Shivani Raja	76,560	61.0	30.2	17.0	15.0	18.2	6.9	8.4	4.2	CON	CON
230	41	Boston and Skegness	Richard Tice	75,811	53.4	24.1	9.8	7.1	52.6	5.2	0.0	1.2	Reform	Reform
231	40	Louth and Horncastle	Victoria Atkins	76,882	60.5	27.1	12.8	9.0	42.9	6.6	0.0	1.6	CON	Reform
232	39	Melton and Syston	Edward Argar	74,316	61.9	29.9	15.5	9.5	34.5	9.3	0.0	1.3	CON	Reform
238	33	South Holland and The Deepings	John Hayes	78,473	58.5	27.5	11.7	9.3	42.1	5.8	0.0	3.6	CON	Reform
244	27	Hinckley and Bosworth	Luke Evans	76,431	62.5	28.7	11.7	20.0	32.9	6.0	0.0	0.8	CON	Reform
252	20	Rutland and Stamford	Alicia Kearns	71,711	67.7	32.9	14.3	14.3	29.9	7.9	0.0	0.8	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.