East Midlands: Majority Sorted Seats

East Midlands Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 54.8%38 40.0%013-1325
LAB 31.7%8 41.0%130+1321
LIB 7.8%0 5.6%00+00
Reform 1.5%0 2.7%00+00
Green 2.6%0 6.0%00+00
Other 1.7%0 4.8%00+00

This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Nottingham East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, South Holland and The Deepings, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Bassetlaw (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Loughborough (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Midlands seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2019
Win
Pred
Win
25538Nottingham East Nadia Whittome66,26260.416.064.44.72.39.00.03.6LABLAB
33530Leicester South Jonathan Ashworth77,70864.517.163.05.02.39.50.03.2LABLAB
67496Nottingham South Lilian Greenwood79,48560.621.159.25.62.38.20.03.6LABLAB
113450Leicester West Liz Kendall64,94053.526.154.44.82.98.00.03.8LABLAB
116447Nottingham North Alex Norris66,49553.126.954.34.33.47.00.04.1LABLAB
134429Derby South Margaret Beckett73,06258.128.253.84.93.55.80.03.8LABLAB
145418Leicester East Claudia Webbe78,43363.028.152.14.73.08.30.03.6LABLAB
187376Chesterfield Toby Perkins71,03463.629.748.66.43.76.30.05.2LABLAB
202361High Peak Robert Largan74,26572.933.750.04.52.25.90.03.7CONLAB
206357Gedling Tom Randall71,36670.033.649.64.32.66.20.03.7CONLAB
208355Derby North Amanda Solloway73,19964.232.648.25.72.86.50.04.3CONLAB
217346Lincoln Karl McCartney74,94267.634.149.04.42.66.00.04.0CONLAB
233330Loughborough Jane Hunt79,76468.535.646.75.42.16.60.03.6CONLAB
239324Northampton South Andrew Lewer62,16365.736.046.74.72.46.60.03.5CONLAB
242321Broxtowe Darren Henry73,05275.736.046.52.92.76.70.05.3CONLAB
245318Rushcliffe Ruth Edwards77,04778.534.844.79.01.85.40.04.2CONLAB
259304Northampton North Michael Ellis58,76867.337.845.74.52.46.10.03.4CONLAB
262301Bolsover Mark Fletcher74,29261.837.144.74.04.25.10.04.9CONLAB
282281Ashfield Lee Anderson78,20462.624.329.83.13.83.927.67.6CONLAB
285278Corby Tom Pursglove86,15370.239.945.14.72.34.50.03.6CONLAB
302261Erewash Maggie Throup72,52367.340.343.14.42.65.80.03.9CONLAB
323240Derbyshire North East Lee Rowley72,34568.043.240.64.72.55.40.03.7CONCON
325238Harborough Neil O'Brien80,15171.540.037.29.92.36.40.04.2CONCON
331232Bassetlaw Brendan Clarke-Smith80,02463.543.138.84.84.54.10.04.7CONCON
332231Sherwood Mark Spencer77,88867.744.139.54.42.75.40.03.9CONCON
333230Derbyshire Mid Pauline Latham67,44273.243.038.36.02.26.40.04.0CONCON
341222Kettering Philip Hollobone73,16467.543.538.05.02.86.20.04.6CONCON
351212Mansfield Ben Bradley77,13163.946.039.43.63.04.00.03.9CONCON
352211Wellingborough Peter Bone80,76564.344.237.55.32.76.40.03.9CONCON
357206Derbyshire South Heather Wheeler79,33167.344.937.55.22.56.00.03.9CONCON
366197Derbyshire Dales Sarah Dines65,08076.944.035.67.72.16.40.04.2CONCON
370193Amber Valley Nigel Mills69,97665.145.937.24.72.75.70.03.8CONCON
382181Leicestershire North West Andrew Bridgen78,93568.245.536.25.02.66.50.04.1CONCON
400163Charnwood Edward Argar79,53469.645.834.95.82.56.80.04.2CONCON
407156Northamptonshire South Andrea Leadsom90,84273.745.434.27.02.46.50.04.4CONCON
411152Newark Robert Jenrick75,85072.246.635.16.02.45.80.04.0CONCON
414149Leicestershire South Alberto Costa80,52071.446.334.66.12.56.40.04.1CONCON
435128Rutland and Melton Alicia Kearns82,70570.546.031.58.42.56.80.04.8CONCON
442121Bosworth Luke Evans81,54269.246.231.310.42.65.30.04.2CONCON
451112Daventry Chris Heaton-Harris77,42374.147.632.37.12.56.20.04.3CONCON
454109Gainsborough Edward Leigh76,34366.949.033.66.32.73.80.04.5CONCON
455108Grantham and Stamford Gareth Davies81,50268.748.032.66.52.66.00.04.2CONCON
49964Sleaford and North Hykeham Caroline Johnson94,76170.250.331.55.52.95.00.04.9CONCON
54617Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins79,63465.754.229.75.23.13.40.04.3CONCON
5549Boston and Skegness Matt Warman69,38160.156.428.14.03.73.30.04.4CONCON
5576South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes75,97564.756.126.84.73.35.00.04.1CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.