East Midlands: Majority Sorted Seats

East Midlands Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 50.7%31 25.3%016-1615
LAB 40.5%15 25.1%32+116
LIB 4.3%0 12.7%00+00
Brexit 0.0%0 25.8%150+1515
Green 1.5%0 7.4%00+00
UKIP 2.4%0 1.6%00+00
Other 0.6%0 2.1%00+00

This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Leicester South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, South Holland and The Deepings, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Charnwood (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Nottingham North (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Midlands seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Brexit
%
Green
%
UKIP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
18435Leicester South Jon Ashworth75,53466.912.755.812.38.58.41.00.01.4LABLAB
20433Leicester East Keith Vaz77,78867.415.357.78.57.88.51.10.01.2LABLAB
36417Nottingham East Chris Leslie61,76263.713.349.413.99.511.21.30.01.6LABLAB
86367Derby South Margaret Beckett69,91864.818.142.710.417.87.61.70.01.6LABLAB
87366Leicester West Liz Kendall64,83457.916.841.211.617.29.61.80.01.8LABLAB
91362Nottingham South Lilian Greenwood71,17867.618.141.814.612.79.91.30.01.7LABLAB
98355Nottingham North Alex Norris66,89457.315.538.410.123.68.22.20.02.0LABLAB
173280Chesterfield Toby Perkins72,06366.517.031.215.324.87.71.70.02.2LABLAB
189263Bolsover Dennis Skinner73,42963.418.329.810.031.56.42.00.02.2LABBrexit
198255Bassetlaw John Mann78,53566.520.530.79.829.36.11.50.02.1LABLAB
201252Gedling Vernon Coaker71,22172.621.931.511.724.07.31.50.02.1LABLAB
213240Derby North Chris Williamson69,91969.623.030.114.821.07.51.50.02.0LABLAB
216237Lincoln Karen Lee73,11166.622.429.112.224.87.61.80.02.1LABLAB
216236Ashfield Gloria De Piero78,09964.020.326.510.632.16.52.00.02.0LABBrexit
219234High Peak Ruth George73,25473.523.129.014.922.57.11.20.02.3LABLAB
225227Mansfield Ben Bradley77,81164.521.726.48.932.16.82.00.02.1CONBrexit
232221Northampton North Michael Ellis58,18369.424.428.511.624.07.91.80.01.9CONLAB
233220Northampton South Andrew Lewer60,99367.324.728.811.723.08.21.90.01.8CONLAB
238215Broxtowe Anna Soubry74,01775.024.327.113.823.47.71.40.02.2CONLAB
247205Corby Tom Pursglove82,43972.824.626.610.827.36.91.70.02.1CONBrexit
251201Derbyshire North East Lee Rowley72,09769.923.924.911.528.87.01.70.02.2CONBrexit
251201Erewash Maggie Throup72,99168.224.425.410.629.16.91.60.02.1CONBrexit
258195Loughborough Nicky Morgan79,60768.027.126.614.120.08.71.40.02.1CONCON
258194Sherwood Mark Spencer76,19670.024.924.410.229.57.01.80.02.2CONBrexit
271181Amber Valley Nigel Mills68,06567.326.222.59.930.96.71.70.02.1CONBrexit
277176Rushcliffe Kenneth Clarke74,74078.027.922.116.719.99.71.30.02.4CONCON
282170Kettering Philip Hollobone71,52369.128.121.811.228.37.01.60.02.1CONBrexit
287165Wellingborough Peter Bone79,25867.227.620.910.629.47.61.90.02.0CONBrexit
294159Derbyshire South Heather Wheeler76,34168.928.620.911.828.36.81.50.02.2CONCON
296157Harborough Neil O'Brien78,64773.227.519.419.921.97.91.40.02.1CONCON
297155Leicestershire North West Andrew Bridgen75,36271.028.119.313.229.16.71.50.02.2CONBrexit
303150Derbyshire Mid Pauline Latham67,46674.729.720.313.325.87.21.40.02.2CONCON
329124Charnwood Edward Argar78,07170.731.019.012.227.07.21.60.02.1CONCON
332120Bosworth David Tredinnick80,63369.726.513.922.127.96.01.40.02.1CONBrexit
332120Boston and Skegness Matt Warman68,39162.727.414.87.639.16.52.60.02.0CONBrexit
338115Derbyshire Dales Patrick McLoughlin64,41877.030.417.415.525.77.31.30.02.3CONCON
341112Gainsborough Edward Leigh75,89367.829.616.414.229.46.71.50.02.1CONCON
349104Leicestershire South Alberto Costa78,89571.930.817.012.628.57.11.70.02.2CONCON
351101Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins79,00666.829.515.310.534.26.51.80.02.1CONBrexit
353100Newark Robert Jenrick75,52672.931.417.113.427.86.71.50.02.2CONCON
36291Grantham and Stamford Nick Boles81,76269.230.415.613.130.17.01.70.02.2CONCON
38865Sleaford and North Hykeham Caroline Johnson90,92572.431.714.911.831.16.61.70.02.2CONCON
38964Northamptonshire South Andrea Leadsom85,75675.832.515.714.425.97.81.50.02.2CONCON
39558Daventry Chris Heaton-Harris75,33573.931.614.314.328.97.11.50.02.2CONCON
40251Rutland and Melton Alan Duncan78,46373.431.613.516.227.47.51.60.02.3CONCON
40943South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes76,38165.931.512.78.836.76.32.10.01.9CONBrexit

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.