East Midlands: Majority Sorted Seats

East Midlands Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 54.8%38 28.5%028-2810
LAB 31.7%8 44.6%280+2836
LIB 7.8%0 6.1%00+00
Reform 1.5%0 12.8%00+00
Green 2.6%0 6.1%00+00
Other 1.7%0 2.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Nottingham East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, South Holland and The Deepings, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Ashfield (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Northampton South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Midlands seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
20560Nottingham East Nadia Whittome66,26260.48.473.
31549Leicester South Jonathan Ashworth77,70864.510.
58522Nottingham South Lilian Greenwood79,48560.612.666.
74506Nottingham North Alex Norris66,49553.114.363.52.711.
80500Leicester West Liz Kendall64,94053.515.
92488Derby South Margaret Beckett73,06258.115.461.
103477Leicester East Claudia Webbe78,43363.019.664.
193387Gedling Tom Randall71,36670.022.355.53.411.
198382Chesterfield Toby Perkins71,03463.619.752.25.614.
205375Lincoln Karl McCartney74,94267.622.754.63.911.
223357Bolsover Mark Fletcher74,29261.822.352.13.715.
226354Derby North Amanda Solloway73,19964.
234346High Peak Robert Largan74,26572.924.352.
252328Northampton South Andrew Lewer62,16365.725.951.74.410.
257323Broxtowe Darren Henry73,05275.725.851.
258322Northampton North Michael Ellis58,76867.326.551.73.610.
265315Loughborough Jane Hunt79,76468.526.851.
285295Corby Tom Pursglove86,15370.
299281Erewash Maggie Throup72,52367.328.549.13.511.
315265Bassetlaw Brendan Clarke-Smith80,02463.528.146.53.915.
316264Rushcliffe Ruth Edwards77,04778.527.245.49.411.
318262Mansfield Ben Bradley77,13163.929.346.
319261Sherwood Mark Spencer77,88867.728.345.84.913.
328252Ashfield Lee Anderson78,20462.613.328.83.416.
340240Derbyshire North East Lee Rowley72,34568.030.944.64.912.
353227Amber Valley Nigel Mills69,97665.
362218Derbyshire South Heather Wheeler79,33167.333.142.84.711.
368212Leicestershire North West Andrew Bridgen78,93568.
371209Kettering Philip Hollobone73,16467.532.340.75.613.
377203Wellingborough Peter Bone80,76564.333.941.05.812.
385195Derbyshire Mid Pauline Latham67,44273.
390190Harborough Neil O'Brien80,15171.530.835.513.412.
402178Newark Robert Jenrick75,85072.233.737.57.413.
408172Derbyshire Dales Sarah Dines65,08076.931.935.
432148Gainsborough Edward Leigh76,34366.933.934.811.314.
433147Leicestershire South Alberto Costa80,52071.435.336.28.512.
449131Northamptonshire South Andrea Leadsom90,84273.736.335.
451129Grantham and Stamford Gareth Davies81,50268.734.733.
454126Charnwood Edward Argar79,53469.637.135.85.912.
460120Sleaford and North Hykeham Caroline Johnson94,76170.
470110Bosworth Luke Evans81,54269.233.830.415.313.
474106Boston and Skegness Matt Warman69,38160.135.932.14.819.
479101Rutland and Melton Alicia Kearns82,70570.534.629.911.414.
48199Daventry Chris Heaton-Harris77,42374.
50080Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins79,63465.738.332.46.617.
52258South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes75,97564.738.830.55.717.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.