East Midlands: Sorted Seats

East Midlands Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 29.4%15 29.4%00+015
LAB 35.3%29 35.3%00+029
LIB 6.4%0 6.5%00+00
Reform 18.9%2 18.9%00+02
Green 6.3%0 6.3%00+00
Other 3.7%1 3.7%00+01

This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Nottingham East' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Rutland and Stamford', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Northampton South (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Gedling (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Midlands seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
44490Nottingham East Nadia Whittome69,39552.510.853.54.89.811.96.82.3LABLAB
146388Nottingham South Lilian Greenwood64,25551.216.147.46.315.08.94.61.8LABLAB
174360Nottingham North and Kimberley Alex Norris73,76847.519.447.13.820.19.60.00.0LABLAB
183351Chesterfield Toby Perkins71,65458.020.546.56.219.06.50.60.8LABLAB
195339Derby South Baggy Shanker72,95251.313.938.84.922.75.113.90.7LABLAB
197337Leicester West Liz Kendall74,10247.819.944.66.216.011.60.01.7LABLAB
201333Gedling Michael Payne77,00663.323.447.85.116.96.40.00.5LABLAB
223311Derby North Catherine Atkinson71,90056.923.745.54.518.38.00.00.0LABLAB
225309Northampton North Lucy Rigby75,57555.322.043.55.416.86.13.72.4LABLAB
231302Leicester South Shockat Adam70,86759.011.532.93.55.99.135.21.8MINMIN
236298Lincoln Hamish Falconer72,31358.323.043.86.218.06.51.11.4LABLAB
237296Ashfield Lee Anderson68,92957.98.229.01.642.82.815.70.0ReformReform
260274Broxtowe Juliet Campbell71,92366.523.440.98.017.67.30.82.1LABLAB
269265High Peak Jonathan Brian Pearce74,38566.229.745.83.514.16.90.00.0LABLAB
282252Bolsover Natalie Fleet77,20755.025.640.53.521.58.80.00.0LABLAB
289245Erewash Adam Thompson71,49760.226.440.05.721.35.80.00.8LABLAB
293241Bassetlaw Jo White78,17357.428.341.24.521.74.30.00.0LABLAB
294240Rushcliffe James William Naish79,16072.931.043.85.511.07.60.01.2LABLAB
297237Corby and East Northamptonshire Lee Barron78,78762.929.642.44.417.75.10.00.8LABLAB
300234Wellingborough and Rushden Gen Kitchen77,55956.727.940.33.621.56.10.00.6LABLAB
306228Amber Valley Linsey Farnsworth71,54659.425.237.03.728.75.40.00.0LABLAB
307227Loughborough Jeevun Sandher68,99661.229.140.86.117.07.00.00.0LABLAB
314220Sherwood Forest Michelle Welsh78,89461.727.638.73.823.34.60.02.1LABLAB
333201Northampton South Mike Reader70,39362.429.238.57.318.75.50.00.9LABLAB
337197Derbyshire South Samantha Niblett73,71462.029.738.84.719.74.20.02.9LABLAB
343191Mansfield Steve Yemm73,81755.730.639.12.022.93.20.02.3LABLAB
350184Kettering Rosie Wrighting79,39063.328.335.82.816.913.90.02.3LABLAB
377157Derbyshire Mid Jonathan Peter Tom Davies69,28168.632.536.55.017.67.50.30.6LABLAB
379155Derbyshire North East Louise Elizabeth Jones73,13962.734.538.34.717.25.00.00.2LABLAB
390144Leicestershire North West Amanda Hack77,75762.532.734.73.420.05.80.03.4LABLAB
405129Derbyshire Dales John Michael Whitby73,31769.934.034.69.515.15.50.01.3LABLAB
44094Leicestershire Mid Peter Bedford75,93363.336.932.35.118.67.10.00.0CONCON
44292Harborough, Oadby and Wigston Neil O'Brien77,40765.136.932.29.412.68.50.00.4CONCON
44886Daventry Stuart Andrew80,87965.633.728.012.720.05.60.00.0CONCON
45678Newark Robert Jenrick80,02866.839.332.55.715.54.40.32.3CONCON
45777Northamptonshire South Sarah Bool78,23368.635.828.99.416.75.70.53.2CONCON
46470Gainsborough Sir Edward Leigh75,83661.635.628.110.721.23.90.00.4CONCON
46767Sleaford and North Hykeham Caroline Johnson75,80764.135.826.84.821.65.00.06.0CONCON
47064Leicester East Shivani Raja76,56061.031.221.613.85.74.611.811.3CONCON
47262Grantham and Bourne Gareth Davies73,28062.936.426.64.620.45.60.06.4CONCON
48054Leicestershire South Alberto Costa78,54365.435.624.814.819.94.80.00.0CONCON
48450Melton and Syston Edward Argar74,31661.938.126.45.619.58.00.02.4CONCON
49637Boston and Skegness Richard Tice75,81153.433.418.93.538.43.70.02.2ReformReform
49836Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins76,88260.537.622.55.225.75.40.03.6CONCON
50727Hinckley and Bosworth Luke Evans76,43162.535.618.024.318.53.20.00.4CONCON
51024South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes78,47358.538.119.84.523.23.90.010.5CONCON
51915Rutland and Stamford Alicia Kearns71,71167.743.822.312.914.45.80.00.8CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.