East Midlands: Sorted Seats

East Midlands Prediction

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	29.4%	15	20.5%	0	13	-13	2
LAB	35.3%	29	20.9%	0	26	-26	3
LIB	6.4%	0	9.7%	0	0	+0	0
Reform	18.9%	2	35.9%	39	0	+39	41
Green	6.3%	0	7.7%	0	0	+0	0
Other	3.7%	1	5.2%	0	0	+0	1

This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Nottingham East' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Rutland and Stamford', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Rutland and Stamford (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Nottingham East (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Midlands seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2024	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	MIN %	OTH %	2024 Win	Pred Win
48	108	Nottingham East	Nadia Whittome	69,395	52.5	6.8	29.3	10.1	28.0	16.3	6.2	3.2	LAB	LAB
76	79	Gedling	Michael Payne	77,006	63.3	14.9	32.2	9.0	33.2	8.2	0.0	2.5	LAB	Reform
83	72	Nottingham South	Lilian Greenwood	64,255	51.2	12.2	28.3	9.5	32.0	10.5	4.6	2.9	LAB	Reform
95	60	Derby North	Catherine Atkinson	71,900	56.9	14.7	29.0	8.7	35.5	9.7	0.0	2.5	LAB	Reform
95	60	Lincoln	Hamish Falconer	72,313	58.3	14.3	28.4	8.6	36.1	8.4	1.4	2.8	LAB	Reform
96	59	Chesterfield	Toby Perkins	71,654	58.0	14.8	28.5	8.3	37.6	7.1	1.1	2.6	LAB	Reform
97	58	Northampton North	Lucy Rigby	75,575	55.3	13.9	27.5	9.0	35.3	8.0	3.1	3.2	LAB	Reform
101	54	Broxtowe	Juliet Campbell	71,923	66.5	15.1	27.9	10.8	33.2	8.7	0.9	3.4	LAB	Reform
102	54	High Peak	Jonathan Brian Pearce	74,385	66.2	19.3	31.9	7.9	30.9	7.9	0.0	2.1	LAB	LAB
102	53	Nottingham North and Kimberley	Alex Norris	73,768	47.5	13.3	25.9	7.6	40.5	10.0	0.0	2.7	LAB	Reform
105	50	Leicester West	Liz Kendall	74,102	47.8	13.4	25.1	9.2	36.5	11.8	0.0	4.0	LAB	Reform
107	48	Derby South	Baggy Shanker	72,952	51.3	9.9	21.1	7.9	41.0	7.1	11.4	1.7	LAB	Reform
108	48	Rushcliffe	James William Naish	79,160	72.9	21.4	32.5	10.1	24.2	8.9	0.0	2.9	LAB	LAB
108	47	Leicester South	Shockat Adam	70,867	59.0	6.9	17.7	9.5	25.1	12.5	27.4	1.0	MIN	MIN
108	47	Bolsover	Natalie Fleet	77,207	55.0	14.5	24.3	6.6	43.8	8.5	0.0	2.3	LAB	Reform
108	47	Loughborough	Jeevun Sandher	68,996	61.2	18.9	27.8	9.7	32.9	8.6	0.0	2.1	LAB	Reform
108	47	Ashfield	Lee Anderson	68,929	57.9	7.0	15.7	4.2	55.2	3.9	13.1	1.0	Reform	Reform
114	41	Erewash	Adam Thompson	71,497	60.2	19.5	22.9	8.8	37.0	8.4	0.0	3.4	LAB	Reform
116	39	Amber Valley	Linsey Farnsworth	71,546	59.4	17.2	20.0	8.0	44.9	7.1	0.0	2.8	LAB	Reform
116	39	Sherwood Forest	Michelle Welsh	78,894	61.7	19.3	21.5	8.4	39.7	6.7	0.0	4.4	LAB	Reform
116	39	Corby and East Northamptonshire	Lee Barron	78,787	62.9	22.9	25.1	8.5	32.6	7.6	0.0	3.3	LAB	Reform
116	39	Bassetlaw	Jo White	78,173	57.4	20.7	22.8	7.7	39.3	6.7	0.0	2.7	LAB	Reform
116	39	Wellingborough and Rushden	Gen Kitchen	77,559	56.7	19.5	21.6	8.5	39.2	8.0	0.0	3.3	LAB	Reform
118	37	Derbyshire South	Samantha Niblett	73,714	62.0	21.1	22.0	9.2	36.0	6.6	0.0	5.0	LAB	Reform
119	36	Northampton South	Mike Reader	70,393	62.4	22.4	23.3	10.5	32.1	8.1	0.0	3.5	LAB	Reform
119	36	Mansfield	Steve Yemm	73,817	55.7	19.2	19.6	6.6	43.9	5.9	0.0	4.8	LAB	Reform
119	36	Kettering	Rosie Wrighting	79,390	63.3	20.1	20.4	7.9	33.9	13.1	0.0	4.6	LAB	Reform
120	35	Derbyshire Mid	Jonathan Peter Tom Davies	69,281	68.6	25.4	23.0	9.1	30.4	8.9	0.7	2.6	LAB	Reform
120	35	Derbyshire North East	Louise Elizabeth Jones	73,139	62.7	25.6	22.5	8.3	33.8	7.0	0.0	2.8	LAB	Reform
120	35	Leicestershire North West	Amanda Hack	77,757	62.5	23.0	19.8	8.0	36.5	7.2	0.0	5.4	LAB	Reform
121	34	Derbyshire Dales	John Michael Whitby	73,317	69.9	26.8	22.5	12.0	28.0	7.2	0.0	3.5	LAB	Reform
125	30	Leicester East	Shivani Raja	76,560	61.0	18.0	11.3	14.2	31.0	6.4	9.0	10.0	CON	Reform
125	30	Leicestershire Mid	Peter Bedford	75,933	63.3	25.7	18.5	9.9	35.2	8.2	0.0	2.5	CON	Reform
125	30	Daventry	Stuart Andrew	80,879	65.6	24.8	16.9	14.4	34.6	6.6	0.0	2.7	CON	Reform
126	30	Harborough, Oadby and Wigston	Neil O'Brien	77,407	65.1	27.9	19.8	12.6	27.2	9.8	0.0	2.7	CON	CON
127	28	Northamptonshire South	Sarah Bool	78,233	68.6	26.7	17.9	12.6	30.9	6.7	0.5	4.7	CON	Reform
127	28	Newark	Robert Jenrick	80,028	66.8	27.8	18.9	9.9	32.6	6.1	0.4	4.3	CON	Reform
128	27	Gainsborough	Sir Edward Leigh	75,836	61.6	24.5	15.4	12.3	39.2	5.5	0.0	3.0	CON	Reform
130	25	Sleaford and North Hykeham	Caroline Johnson	75,807	64.1	24.8	15.0	8.3	38.3	6.1	0.0	7.5	CON	Reform
131	24	Grantham and Bourne	Gareth Davies	73,280	62.9	25.1	14.4	8.2	37.9	6.5	0.0	7.9	CON	Reform
131	24	Leicestershire South	Alberto Costa	78,543	65.4	25.7	14.8	15.6	35.2	6.1	0.0	2.5	CON	Reform
132	23	Melton and Syston	Edward Argar	74,316	61.9	26.4	14.7	9.4	36.8	8.2	0.0	4.5	CON	Reform
132	23	Boston and Skegness	Richard Tice	75,811	53.4	20.3	8.0	6.0	57.0	4.4	0.0	4.4	Reform	Reform
133	22	Louth and Horncastle	Victoria Atkins	76,882	60.5	24.4	11.5	8.0	44.8	5.7	0.0	5.6	CON	Reform
136	19	South Holland and The Deepings	John Hayes	78,473	58.5	24.5	9.7	7.0	43.3	4.6	0.0	10.9	CON	Reform
136	19	Hinckley and Bosworth	Luke Evans	76,431	62.5	25.2	10.3	21.2	35.7	4.8	0.0	2.9	CON	Reform
145	11	Rutland and Stamford	Alicia Kearns	71,711	67.7	31.9	13.7	14.9	30.1	6.4	0.0	3.1	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.