East Midlands: Sorted Seats

East Midlands Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 29.4%15 29.4%00+015
LAB 35.3%29 35.3%00+029
LIB 6.4%0 6.5%00+00
Reform 18.9%2 18.9%00+02
Green 6.3%0 6.3%00+00
Other 3.7%1 3.7%00+01

This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Nottingham East' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Rutland and Stamford', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Northampton South (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Gedling (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Midlands seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
44490Nottingham East Nadia Whittome69,39552.510.853.54.89.811.96.82.3LABLAB
146388Nottingham South Lilian Greenwood64,25551.
174360Nottingham North and Kimberley Alex Norris73,76847.519.447.13.820.
183351Chesterfield Toby Perkins71,65458.020.546.
195339Derby South Baggy Shanker72,95251.313.938.84.922.
197337Leicester West Liz Kendall74,10247.819.944.
201333Gedling Michael Payne77,00663.323.447.
223311Derby North Catherine Atkinson71,90056.923.745.54.518.
225309Northampton North Lucy Rigby75,57555.322.043.55.416.
231302Leicester South Shockat Adam70,86759.011.532.
236298Lincoln Hamish Falconer72,31358.323.
237296Ashfield Lee Anderson68,92957.
260274Broxtowe Juliet Campbell71,92366.523.440.
269265High Peak Jonathan Brian Pearce74,38566.229.745.83.514.
282252Bolsover Natalie Fleet77,20755.025.640.53.521.
289245Erewash Adam Thompson71,49760.226.440.05.721.
293241Bassetlaw Jo White78,17357.428.341.24.521.
294240Rushcliffe James William Naish79,16072.931.043.85.511.
297237Corby and East Northamptonshire Lee Barron78,78762.929.642.44.417.
300234Wellingborough and Rushden Gen Kitchen77,55956.727.940.33.621.
306228Amber Valley Linsey Farnsworth71,54659.425.237.03.728.
307227Loughborough Jeevun Sandher68,99661.
314220Sherwood Forest Michelle Welsh78,89461.727.638.73.823.
333201Northampton South Mike Reader70,39362.429.238.57.318.
337197Derbyshire South Samantha Niblett73,71462.029.738.84.719.
343191Mansfield Steve Yemm73,81755.730.639.
350184Kettering Rosie Wrighting79,39063.328.335.82.816.913.90.02.3LABLAB
377157Derbyshire Mid Jonathan Peter Tom Davies69,28168.632.536.
379155Derbyshire North East Louise Elizabeth Jones73,13962.734.538.34.717.
390144Leicestershire North West Amanda Hack77,75762.532.734.73.420.
405129Derbyshire Dales John Michael Whitby73,31769.934.034.69.515.
44094Leicestershire Mid Peter Bedford75,93363.336.932.
44292Harborough, Oadby and Wigston Neil O'Brien77,40765.136.932.29.412.
44886Daventry Stuart Andrew80,87965.633.728.012.720.
45678Newark Robert Jenrick80,02866.839.332.55.715.
45777Northamptonshire South Sarah Bool78,23368.635.828.99.416.
46470Gainsborough Sir Edward Leigh75,83661.635.628.110.721.
46767Sleaford and North Hykeham Caroline Johnson75,80764.135.826.84.821.
47064Leicester East Shivani Raja76,56061.031.221.613.85.74.611.811.3CONCON
47262Grantham and Bourne Gareth Davies73,28062.936.426.64.620.
48054Leicestershire South Alberto Costa78,54365.435.624.814.819.
48450Melton and Syston Edward Argar74,31661.938.126.45.619.
49637Boston and Skegness Richard Tice75,81153.433.418.93.538.
49836Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins76,88260.537.622.
50727Hinckley and Bosworth Luke Evans76,43162.535.618.024.318.
51024South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes78,47358.538.119.84.523.
51915Rutland and Stamford Alicia Kearns71,71167.743.822.312.914.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.