| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 29.4% | 15 | 19.9% | 0 | 11 | -11 | 4 |
| LAB | 35.3% | 29 | 17.5% | 0 | 26 | -26 | 3 |
| LIB | 6.4% | 0 | 10.1% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Reform | 18.9% | 2 | 35.4% | 37 | 0 | +37 | 39 |
| Green | 6.3% | 0 | 12.1% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Other | 3.7% | 1 | 5.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Nottingham East' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Boston and Skegness', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Leicestershire Mid (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Nottingham East (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | NAT % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 336 | Nottingham East | Nadia Whittome | 69,395 | 52.5 | 11.7 | 27.6 | 7.6 | 16.9 | 23.9 | 0.0 | 12.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 86 | 299 | Gedling | Michael Payne | 77,006 | 63.3 | 5.7 | 43.5 | 2.5 | 39.8 | 3.4 | 0.0 | 5.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 86 | 298 | Leicester South | Shockat Adam | 70,867 | 59.0 | 9.6 | 17.2 | 4.5 | 13.8 | 21.4 | 0.0 | 33.5 | 0.0 | MIN | MIN |
| 104 | 281 | Rushcliffe | James William Naish | 79,160 | 72.9 | 22.8 | 22.9 | 11.5 | 22.7 | 13.8 | 0.0 | 6.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 111 | 274 | Derby North | Catherine Atkinson | 71,900 | 56.9 | 5.9 | 40.7 | 2.6 | 41.0 | 4.2 | 0.0 | 5.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 116 | 269 | Chesterfield | Toby Perkins | 71,654 | 58.0 | 4.6 | 41.4 | 2.6 | 43.1 | 3.2 | 0.0 | 4.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 119 | 266 | Nottingham South | Lilian Greenwood | 64,255 | 51.2 | 14.0 | 23.7 | 7.6 | 26.0 | 18.9 | 0.0 | 9.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 128 | 257 | Leicester West | Liz Kendall | 74,102 | 47.8 | 10.7 | 28.6 | 7.3 | 32.0 | 14.2 | 0.0 | 7.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 132 | 253 | Broxtowe | Juliet Campbell | 71,923 | 66.5 | 16.7 | 24.4 | 10.4 | 28.3 | 13.5 | 0.0 | 6.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 135 | 250 | Lincoln | Hamish Falconer | 72,313 | 58.3 | 7.4 | 36.6 | 4.0 | 41.2 | 5.3 | 0.0 | 5.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 152 | 233 | High Peak | Jonathan Brian Pearce | 74,385 | 66.2 | 20.4 | 23.0 | 9.0 | 29.9 | 11.7 | 0.0 | 5.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 189 | 196 | Loughborough | Jeevun Sandher | 68,996 | 61.2 | 19.9 | 20.4 | 9.2 | 30.9 | 13.1 | 0.0 | 6.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 192 | 193 | Northampton North | Lucy Rigby | 75,575 | 55.3 | 8.9 | 31.5 | 5.8 | 42.7 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 4.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 195 | 190 | Nottingham North and Kimberley | Alex Norris | 73,768 | 47.5 | 12.8 | 24.2 | 5.5 | 35.7 | 14.1 | 0.0 | 7.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 199 | 186 | Harborough, Oadby and Wigston | Neil O'Brien | 77,407 | 65.1 | 28.4 | 16.5 | 11.1 | 28.7 | 12.6 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 202 | 182 | Leicester East | Shivani Raja | 76,560 | 61.0 | 24.7 | 10.1 | 11.7 | 22.5 | 22.8 | 0.0 | 8.2 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 204 | 181 | Derbyshire Dales | John Michael Whitby | 73,317 | 69.9 | 24.0 | 17.9 | 13.0 | 30.6 | 10.2 | 0.0 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 218 | 167 | Derby South | Baggy Shanker | 72,952 | 51.3 | 15.2 | 17.7 | 7.5 | 31.9 | 18.5 | 0.0 | 9.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 258 | 127 | Derbyshire Mid | Jonathan Peter Tom Davies | 69,281 | 68.6 | 24.8 | 16.0 | 9.8 | 33.4 | 11.4 | 0.0 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 264 | 121 | Erewash | Adam Thompson | 71,497 | 60.2 | 15.8 | 21.1 | 9.5 | 39.0 | 10.2 | 0.0 | 4.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 268 | 117 | Bolsover | Natalie Fleet | 77,207 | 55.0 | 11.8 | 24.3 | 6.2 | 43.5 | 9.3 | 0.0 | 4.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 269 | 116 | Derbyshire South | Samantha Niblett | 73,714 | 62.0 | 20.2 | 18.1 | 9.0 | 37.5 | 10.2 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 277 | 108 | Derbyshire North East | Louise Elizabeth Jones | 73,139 | 62.7 | 20.7 | 18.0 | 9.4 | 38.0 | 9.4 | 0.0 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 284 | 101 | Sherwood Forest | Michelle Welsh | 78,894 | 61.7 | 20.6 | 16.9 | 8.1 | 37.5 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 5.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 296 | 89 | Northampton South | Mike Reader | 70,393 | 62.4 | 19.6 | 16.7 | 10.7 | 38.3 | 10.7 | 0.0 | 4.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 300 | 85 | Leicestershire North West | Amanda Hack | 77,757 | 62.5 | 20.4 | 17.0 | 8.9 | 38.8 | 10.3 | 0.0 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 309 | 76 | Corby and East Northamptonshire | Lee Barron | 78,787 | 62.9 | 20.3 | 16.6 | 9.7 | 39.6 | 9.9 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 321 | 64 | Amber Valley | Linsey Farnsworth | 71,546 | 59.4 | 15.2 | 19.6 | 8.1 | 43.7 | 9.4 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 322 | 63 | Bassetlaw | Jo White | 78,173 | 57.4 | 17.1 | 18.4 | 8.0 | 42.6 | 9.1 | 0.0 | 4.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 324 | 61 | Kettering | Rosie Wrighting | 79,390 | 63.3 | 18.8 | 13.7 | 7.7 | 38.1 | 16.7 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 326 | 59 | Leicestershire Mid | Peter Bedford | 75,933 | 63.3 | 31.5 | 12.3 | 7.0 | 36.9 | 9.7 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 328 | 57 | Hinckley and Bosworth | Luke Evans | 76,431 | 62.5 | 22.1 | 11.1 | 21.1 | 35.7 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 329 | 55 | Newark | Robert Jenrick | 80,028 | 66.8 | 41.6 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 34.3 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 332 | 52 | Rutland and Stamford | Alicia Kearns | 71,711 | 67.7 | 43.4 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 33.1 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 350 | 35 | Leicestershire South | Alberto Costa | 78,543 | 65.4 | 34.2 | 9.1 | 10.2 | 37.2 | 7.1 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 351 | 34 | Wellingborough and Rushden | Gen Kitchen | 77,559 | 56.7 | 18.3 | 15.5 | 8.4 | 43.7 | 10.2 | 0.0 | 3.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 353 | 32 | Daventry | Stuart Andrew | 80,879 | 65.6 | 28.1 | 10.6 | 11.3 | 39.1 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 3.2 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 355 | 30 | Mansfield | Steve Yemm | 73,817 | 55.7 | 17.8 | 16.4 | 6.9 | 45.2 | 8.9 | 0.0 | 4.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 355 | 29 | Northamptonshire South | Sarah Bool | 78,233 | 68.6 | 39.2 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 37.4 | 6.4 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 359 | 26 | Gainsborough | Sir Edward Leigh | 75,836 | 61.6 | 36.5 | 9.0 | 7.1 | 39.3 | 5.9 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 365 | 20 | Grantham and Bourne | Gareth Davies | 73,280 | 62.9 | 38.5 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 39.4 | 7.2 | 0.0 | 2.9 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 368 | 17 | Sleaford and North Hykeham | Caroline Johnson | 75,807 | 64.1 | 37.9 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 40.5 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 371 | 14 | Melton and Syston | Edward Argar | 74,316 | 61.9 | 37.0 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 40.6 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 378 | 7 | Ashfield | Lee Anderson | 68,929 | 57.9 | 11.7 | 12.1 | 6.0 | 50.0 | 13.4 | 0.0 | 6.7 | 0.0 | Reform | Reform |
| 381 | 4 | Louth and Horncastle | Victoria Atkins | 76,882 | 60.5 | 35.7 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 45.3 | 6.2 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 382 | 3 | South Holland and The Deepings | John Hayes | 78,473 | 58.5 | 35.9 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 46.3 | 6.1 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 383 | 2 | Boston and Skegness | Richard Tice | 75,811 | 53.4 | 28.8 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 55.2 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 3.4 | 0.0 | Reform | Reform |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.