East Midlands: Majority Sorted Seats

East Midlands Prediction

Party	2017 Votes	2017 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	50.7%	31	28.2%	0	10	-10	21
LAB	40.5%	15	31.7%	10	0	+10	25
LIB	4.3%	0	5.0%	0	0	+0	0
UKIP	2.4%	0	6.2%	0	0	+0	0
Green	1.5%	0	4.3%	0	0	+0	0
ChUK	0.0%	0	4.0%	0	0	+0	0
Brexit	0.0%	0	18.7%	0	0	+0	0
Minor	0.6%	0	1.9%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Leicester South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, South Holland and The Deepings, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Amber Valley (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Bassetlaw (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Midlands seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2017	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	UKIP %	Green %	NAT %	ChUK %	Brexit %	MIN %	OTH %	2017 Win	Pred Win
22	528	Leicester South	Jon Ashworth	75,534	66.9	12.2	60.7	4.2	3.2	5.7	0.0	3.8	9.6	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
31	519	Leicester East	Keith Vaz	77,788	67.4	13.4	56.4	4.0	3.9	6.2	0.0	3.5	11.8	0.0	0.9	LAB	LAB
38	512	Nottingham East	Chris Leslie	61,762	63.7	12.6	54.4	4.7	4.3	6.0	0.0	4.0	12.9	0.0	1.0	LAB	LAB
90	460	Nottingham South	Lilian Greenwood	71,178	67.6	17.4	47.6	5.0	4.7	5.8	0.0	4.1	14.3	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
105	445	Leicester West	Liz Kendall	64,834	57.9	16.2	44.4	4.2	6.0	5.5	0.0	3.9	18.1	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
117	433	Derby South	Margaret Beckett	69,918	64.8	18.0	44.6	3.9	5.9	4.9	0.0	3.7	17.7	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
127	423	Nottingham North	Alex Norris	66,894	57.3	16.0	41.6	3.7	7.0	4.8	0.0	3.7	21.2	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
173	377	Chesterfield	Toby Perkins	72,063	66.5	19.8	39.0	5.5	6.2	4.5	0.0	4.1	19.0	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
215	335	Gedling	Vernon Coaker	71,221	72.6	24.9	38.6	4.2	5.4	4.3	0.0	4.1	16.7	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
219	331	Bolsover	Dennis Skinner	73,429	63.4	22.1	35.7	4.0	7.0	3.9	0.0	3.7	21.3	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
223	327	Bassetlaw	John Mann	78,535	66.5	25.4	38.5	4.0	5.7	3.2	0.0	3.8	17.4	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
226	324	Derby North	Chris Williamson	69,919	69.6	24.7	37.4	5.4	5.5	4.3	0.0	4.1	16.8	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
237	313	Lincoln	Karen Lee	73,111	66.6	24.1	35.2	4.4	6.4	4.5	0.0	3.9	19.5	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
242	308	High Peak	Ruth George	73,254	73.5	27.6	38.4	6.0	4.5	3.5	0.0	4.4	14.0	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
253	297	Northampton South	Andrew Lewer	60,993	67.3	24.9	33.6	4.5	6.6	4.6	0.0	3.8	20.1	0.0	1.8	CON	LAB
255	295	Ashfield	Gloria De Piero	78,099	64.0	24.4	32.9	3.6	7.2	4.0	0.0	3.7	21.9	0.0	2.4	LAB	LAB
260	290	Northampton North	Michael Ellis	58,183	69.4	25.9	34.0	4.1	6.4	4.5	0.0	3.8	19.4	0.0	1.9	CON	LAB
266	284	Broxtowe	Anna Soubry	74,017	75.0	27.0	34.6	5.2	5.6	4.5	0.0	4.2	17.1	0.0	1.8	CON	LAB
272	278	Mansfield	Ben Bradley	77,811	64.5	25.0	32.0	3.3	7.4	4.0	0.0	3.6	22.4	0.0	2.3	CON	LAB
285	265	Corby	Tom Pursglove	82,439	72.8	27.7	33.5	4.2	6.2	3.9	0.0	3.8	18.8	0.0	2.0	CON	LAB
287	263	Loughborough	Nicky Morgan	79,607	68.0	28.0	33.1	5.1	5.6	5.2	0.0	4.3	17.0	0.0	1.7	CON	LAB
295	255	Derbyshire North East	Lee Rowley	72,097	69.9	27.4	32.1	4.1	6.6	3.9	0.0	3.8	20.0	0.0	2.1	CON	LAB
303	247	Erewash	Maggie Throup	72,991	68.2	28.7	32.3	4.2	6.2	3.7	0.0	3.9	18.9	0.0	2.2	CON	LAB
307	243	Sherwood	Mark Spencer	76,196	70.0	28.4	30.9	3.8	6.6	4.0	0.0	3.8	20.2	0.0	2.2	CON	LAB
320	230	Rushcliffe	Kenneth Clarke	74,740	78.0	30.7	30.9	5.9	5.1	5.3	0.0	4.6	15.8	0.0	1.6	CON	LAB
333	217	Amber Valley	Nigel Mills	68,065	67.3	31.0	29.2	4.0	6.5	3.6	0.0	3.8	19.7	0.0	2.2	CON	CON
346	204	Kettering	Philip Hollobone	71,523	69.1	32.0	28.8	4.5	6.2	3.6	0.0	4.0	18.8	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
348	202	Wellingborough	Peter Bone	79,258	67.2	30.4	26.7	4.3	7.1	4.1	0.0	3.8	21.4	0.0	2.2	CON	CON
353	197	Harborough	Neil O'Brien	78,647	73.2	30.3	26.3	9.1	5.7	4.8	0.0	4.8	17.3	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
361	189	Derbyshire South	Heather Wheeler	76,341	68.9	33.3	28.4	4.7	5.9	3.5	0.0	4.1	18.1	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
375	175	Derbyshire Mid	Pauline Latham	67,466	74.7	34.7	28.5	4.9	5.4	3.7	0.0	4.2	16.7	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
376	174	Leicestershire North West	Andrew Bridgen	75,362	71.0	32.9	26.7	5.9	6.1	3.4	0.0	4.1	18.8	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
405	145	Charnwood	Edward Argar	78,071	70.7	34.1	25.1	4.7	6.3	4.5	0.0	4.0	19.3	0.0	2.0	CON	CON
414	136	Derbyshire Dales	Patrick McLoughlin	64,418	77.0	35.2	25.7	6.3	5.6	3.7	0.0	4.4	17.2	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
435	115	Leicestershire South	Alberto Costa	78,895	71.9	34.4	23.4	4.9	6.6	4.5	0.0	4.0	20.1	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
436	114	Gainsborough	Edward Leigh	75,893	67.8	34.7	23.7	6.1	6.3	3.5	0.0	4.2	19.3	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
437	113	Newark	Robert Jenrick	75,526	72.9	35.6	24.5	5.4	6.1	3.5	0.0	4.1	18.7	0.0	2.0	CON	CON
439	111	Boston and Skegness	Matt Warman	68,391	62.7	30.4	19.2	3.0	9.4	4.0	0.0	3.3	28.1	0.0	2.7	CON	CON
442	108	Bosworth	David Tredinnick	80,633	69.7	32.9	21.4	10.8	6.0	3.5	0.0	4.9	18.5	0.0	2.0	CON	CON
447	103	Grantham and Stamford	Nick Boles	81,762	69.2	34.3	22.4	5.4	6.9	3.9	0.0	4.0	21.0	0.0	2.2	CON	CON
459	91	Louth and Horncastle	Victoria Atkins	79,006	66.8	33.7	21.3	4.2	7.6	3.9	0.0	3.8	23.0	0.0	2.4	CON	CON
473	77	Northamptonshire South	Andrea Leadsom	85,756	75.8	36.3	23.2	5.8	6.0	4.2	0.0	4.2	18.4	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
486	64	Sleaford and North Hykeham	Caroline Johnson	90,925	72.4	35.6	21.2	4.6	7.1	4.0	0.0	3.9	21.4	0.0	2.2	CON	CON
488	62	Daventry	Chris Heaton-Harris	75,335	73.9	35.7	21.1	6.2	6.7	3.8	0.0	4.2	20.3	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
495	55	Rutland and Melton	Alan Duncan	78,463	73.4	35.3	19.9	6.8	6.7	4.6	0.0	4.4	20.3	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
531	19	South Holland and The Deepings	John Hayes	76,381	65.9	36.4	17.5	3.6	8.1	3.7	0.0	3.5	24.6	0.0	2.5	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.