East Midlands: Majority Sorted Seats

East Midlands Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 54.8%38 52.9%03-335
LAB 31.7%8 35.1%30+311
LIB 7.8%0 5.0%00+00
Brexit 1.5%0 0.9%00+00
Green 2.6%0 3.3%00+00
Other 1.7%0 2.7%00+00

This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Leicester South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, South Holland and The Deepings, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Bassetlaw (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Derby North (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Midlands seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
34530Leicester South Jonathan Ashworth77,70864.520.
41523Nottingham East Nadia Whittome66,26260.419.
87477Nottingham South Lilian Greenwood79,48560.627.359.
132432Derby South Margaret Beckett73,06258.
142422Nottingham North Alex Norris66,49553.134.653.
154410Leicester West Liz Kendall64,94053.535.853.
159405Leicester East Claudia Webbe78,43363.036.853.
186378Chesterfield Toby Perkins71,03463.635.
213351High Peak Robert Largan74,26572.944.
215349Gedling Tom Randall71,36670.043.747.
227337Derby North Amanda Solloway73,19964.243.443.
243321Lincoln Karl McCartney74,94267.646.
259305Bolsover Mark Fletcher74,29261.845.640.
266298Rushcliffe Ruth Edwards77,04778.545.739.810.
269295Broxtowe Darren Henry73,05275.746.339.
271293Northampton South Andrew Lewer62,16365.749.442.
276288Loughborough Jane Hunt79,76468.549.341.
282282Northampton North Michael Ellis58,76867.351.441.
284280Ashfield Lee Anderson78,20462.637.427.
298266Corby Tom Pursglove86,15370.253.441.
319245Erewash Maggie Throup72,52367.354.637.
329235Bassetlaw Brendan Clarke-Smith80,02463.553.433.
337227Derbyshire North East Lee Rowley72,34568.056.935.
343221Harborough Neil O'Brien80,15171.553.530.
363201Derbyshire Mid Pauline Latham67,44273.
369195Sherwood Mark Spencer77,88867.759.
390174Derbyshire Dales Sarah Dines65,08076.956.928.
397167Mansfield Ben Bradley77,13163.962.
399165Kettering Philip Hollobone73,16467.558.529.
410154Wellingborough Peter Bone80,76564.360.429.
417147Derbyshire South Heather Wheeler79,33167.360.929.
427137Amber Valley Nigel Mills69,97665.
438126Leicestershire North West Andrew Bridgen78,93568.
458106Newark Robert Jenrick75,85072.261.526.
46896Charnwood Edward Argar79,53469.661.626.
47193Northamptonshire South Andrea Leadsom90,84273.760.624.
47688Leicestershire South Alberto Costa80,52071.462.
51153Daventry Chris Heaton-Harris77,42374.162.723.
51351Gainsborough Edward Leigh76,34366.964.624.
51648Bosworth Luke Evans81,54269.
51846Rutland and Melton Alicia Kearns82,70570.560.820.
52440Grantham and Stamford Gareth Davies81,50268.763.923.
54618Sleaford and North Hykeham Caroline Johnson94,76170.265.321.
5559Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins79,63465.770.820.
5622Boston and Skegness Matt Warman69,38160.174.817.
5631South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes75,97564.774.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.