East Midlands: Majority Sorted Seats

East Midlands Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 54.8%38 28.5%028-2810
LAB 31.7%8 44.6%280+2836
LIB 7.8%0 6.1%00+00
Reform 1.5%0 12.8%00+00
Green 2.6%0 6.1%00+00
Other 1.7%0 2.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Nottingham East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, South Holland and The Deepings, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Ashfield (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Northampton South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Midlands seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2019
Win
Pred
Win
20560Nottingham East Nadia Whittome66,26260.48.473.72.37.76.50.01.3LABLAB
31549Leicester South Jonathan Ashworth77,70864.510.070.72.78.17.30.01.3LABLAB
58522Nottingham South Lilian Greenwood79,48560.612.666.73.08.67.50.01.5LABLAB
74506Nottingham North Alex Norris66,49553.114.363.52.711.86.10.01.6LABLAB
80500Leicester West Liz Kendall64,94053.515.063.83.210.75.80.01.5LABLAB
92488Derby South Margaret Beckett73,06258.115.461.43.012.74.90.02.5LABLAB
103477Leicester East Claudia Webbe78,43363.019.664.02.79.52.80.01.4LABLAB
193387Gedling Tom Randall71,36670.022.355.53.411.16.40.01.2CONLAB
198382Chesterfield Toby Perkins71,03463.619.752.25.614.56.50.01.5LABLAB
205375Lincoln Karl McCartney74,94267.622.754.63.911.06.40.01.4CONLAB
223357Bolsover Mark Fletcher74,29261.822.352.13.715.15.60.01.3CONLAB
226354Derby North Amanda Solloway73,19964.223.152.94.811.66.00.01.5CONLAB
234346High Peak Robert Largan74,26572.924.352.94.211.06.60.00.9CONLAB
252328Northampton South Andrew Lewer62,16365.725.951.74.410.85.80.01.4CONLAB
257323Broxtowe Darren Henry73,05275.725.851.23.011.46.70.02.0CONLAB
258322Northampton North Michael Ellis58,76867.326.551.73.610.96.10.01.2CONLAB
265315Loughborough Jane Hunt79,76468.526.851.34.19.96.60.01.2CONLAB
285295Corby Tom Pursglove86,15370.228.050.44.711.34.80.00.8CONLAB
299281Erewash Maggie Throup72,52367.328.549.13.511.26.30.01.3CONLAB
315265Bassetlaw Brendan Clarke-Smith80,02463.528.146.53.915.34.90.01.3CONLAB
316264Rushcliffe Ruth Edwards77,04778.527.245.49.411.25.90.00.9CONLAB
318262Mansfield Ben Bradley77,13163.929.346.93.213.94.90.01.7CONLAB
319261Sherwood Mark Spencer77,88867.728.345.84.913.85.90.01.3CONLAB
328252Ashfield Lee Anderson78,20462.613.328.83.416.84.127.66.1CONLAB
340240Derbyshire North East Lee Rowley72,34568.030.944.64.912.56.00.01.1CONLAB
353227Amber Valley Nigel Mills69,97665.132.143.53.812.47.00.01.1CONLAB
362218Derbyshire South Heather Wheeler79,33167.333.142.84.711.96.60.00.9CONLAB
368212Leicestershire North West Andrew Bridgen78,93568.232.141.15.413.17.20.01.1CONLAB
371209Kettering Philip Hollobone73,16467.532.340.75.613.26.70.01.7CONLAB
377203Wellingborough Peter Bone80,76564.333.941.05.812.35.60.01.2CONLAB
385195Derbyshire Mid Pauline Latham67,44273.233.038.46.512.87.80.01.5CONLAB
390190Harborough Neil O'Brien80,15171.530.835.513.412.76.50.01.2CONLAB
402178Newark Robert Jenrick75,85072.233.737.57.413.86.40.01.2CONLAB
408172Derbyshire Dales Sarah Dines65,08076.931.935.011.213.77.60.00.7CONLAB
432148Gainsborough Edward Leigh76,34366.933.934.811.314.64.50.00.9CONLAB
433147Leicestershire South Alberto Costa80,52071.435.336.28.512.66.40.00.9CONLAB
449131Northamptonshire South Andrea Leadsom90,84273.736.335.39.112.26.20.00.9CONCON
451129Grantham and Stamford Gareth Davies81,50268.734.733.58.114.97.10.01.7CONCON
454126Charnwood Edward Argar79,53469.637.135.85.912.87.10.01.4CONCON
460120Sleaford and North Hykeham Caroline Johnson94,76170.236.234.06.915.55.90.01.5CONCON
470110Bosworth Luke Evans81,54269.233.830.415.313.65.90.01.0CONCON
474106Boston and Skegness Matt Warman69,38160.135.932.14.819.74.60.03.0CONCON
479101Rutland and Melton Alicia Kearns82,70570.534.629.911.414.58.20.01.3CONCON
48199Daventry Chris Heaton-Harris77,42374.138.033.39.612.46.00.00.7CONCON
50080Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins79,63465.738.332.46.617.14.50.01.2CONCON
52258South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes75,97564.738.830.55.717.25.90.01.9CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.