East Midlands: Majority Sorted Seats

East Midlands Prediction

Party	2017 Votes	2017 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	50.7%	31	25.3%	0	16	-16	15
LAB	40.5%	15	25.1%	3	2	+1	16
LIB	4.3%	0	12.7%	0	0	+0	0
Brexit	0.0%	0	25.8%	15	0	+15	15
Green	1.5%	0	7.4%	0	0	+0	0
UKIP	2.4%	0	1.6%	0	0	+0	0
Other	0.6%	0	2.1%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Leicester South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, South Holland and The Deepings, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Charnwood (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Nottingham North (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Midlands seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2017	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Brexit %	Green %	UKIP %	MIN %	OTH %	2017 Win	Pred Win
18	435	Leicester South	Jon Ashworth	75,534	66.9	12.7	55.8	12.3	8.5	8.4	1.0	0.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
20	433	Leicester East	Keith Vaz	77,788	67.4	15.3	57.7	8.5	7.8	8.5	1.1	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
36	417	Nottingham East	Chris Leslie	61,762	63.7	13.3	49.4	13.9	9.5	11.2	1.3	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
86	367	Derby South	Margaret Beckett	69,918	64.8	18.1	42.7	10.4	17.8	7.6	1.7	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
87	366	Leicester West	Liz Kendall	64,834	57.9	16.8	41.2	11.6	17.2	9.6	1.8	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
91	362	Nottingham South	Lilian Greenwood	71,178	67.6	18.1	41.8	14.6	12.7	9.9	1.3	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
98	355	Nottingham North	Alex Norris	66,894	57.3	15.5	38.4	10.1	23.6	8.2	2.2	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
173	280	Chesterfield	Toby Perkins	72,063	66.5	17.0	31.2	15.3	24.8	7.7	1.7	0.0	2.2	LAB	LAB
189	263	Bolsover	Dennis Skinner	73,429	63.4	18.3	29.8	10.0	31.5	6.4	2.0	0.0	2.2	LAB	Brexit
198	255	Bassetlaw	John Mann	78,535	66.5	20.5	30.7	9.8	29.3	6.1	1.5	0.0	2.1	LAB	LAB
201	252	Gedling	Vernon Coaker	71,221	72.6	21.9	31.5	11.7	24.0	7.3	1.5	0.0	2.1	LAB	LAB
213	240	Derby North	Chris Williamson	69,919	69.6	23.0	30.1	14.8	21.0	7.5	1.5	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
216	237	Lincoln	Karen Lee	73,111	66.6	22.4	29.1	12.2	24.8	7.6	1.8	0.0	2.1	LAB	LAB
216	236	Ashfield	Gloria De Piero	78,099	64.0	20.3	26.5	10.6	32.1	6.5	2.0	0.0	2.0	LAB	Brexit
219	234	High Peak	Ruth George	73,254	73.5	23.1	29.0	14.9	22.5	7.1	1.2	0.0	2.3	LAB	LAB
225	227	Mansfield	Ben Bradley	77,811	64.5	21.7	26.4	8.9	32.1	6.8	2.0	0.0	2.1	CON	Brexit
232	221	Northampton North	Michael Ellis	58,183	69.4	24.4	28.5	11.6	24.0	7.9	1.8	0.0	1.9	CON	LAB
233	220	Northampton South	Andrew Lewer	60,993	67.3	24.7	28.8	11.7	23.0	8.2	1.9	0.0	1.8	CON	LAB
238	215	Broxtowe	Anna Soubry	74,017	75.0	24.3	27.1	13.8	23.4	7.7	1.4	0.0	2.2	CON	LAB
247	205	Corby	Tom Pursglove	82,439	72.8	24.6	26.6	10.8	27.3	6.9	1.7	0.0	2.1	CON	Brexit
251	201	Derbyshire North East	Lee Rowley	72,097	69.9	23.9	24.9	11.5	28.8	7.0	1.7	0.0	2.2	CON	Brexit
251	201	Erewash	Maggie Throup	72,991	68.2	24.4	25.4	10.6	29.1	6.9	1.6	0.0	2.1	CON	Brexit
258	195	Loughborough	Nicky Morgan	79,607	68.0	27.1	26.6	14.1	20.0	8.7	1.4	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
258	194	Sherwood	Mark Spencer	76,196	70.0	24.9	24.4	10.2	29.5	7.0	1.8	0.0	2.2	CON	Brexit
271	181	Amber Valley	Nigel Mills	68,065	67.3	26.2	22.5	9.9	30.9	6.7	1.7	0.0	2.1	CON	Brexit
277	176	Rushcliffe	Kenneth Clarke	74,740	78.0	27.9	22.1	16.7	19.9	9.7	1.3	0.0	2.4	CON	CON
282	170	Kettering	Philip Hollobone	71,523	69.1	28.1	21.8	11.2	28.3	7.0	1.6	0.0	2.1	CON	Brexit
287	165	Wellingborough	Peter Bone	79,258	67.2	27.6	20.9	10.6	29.4	7.6	1.9	0.0	2.0	CON	Brexit
294	159	Derbyshire South	Heather Wheeler	76,341	68.9	28.6	20.9	11.8	28.3	6.8	1.5	0.0	2.2	CON	CON
296	157	Harborough	Neil O'Brien	78,647	73.2	27.5	19.4	19.9	21.9	7.9	1.4	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
297	155	Leicestershire North West	Andrew Bridgen	75,362	71.0	28.1	19.3	13.2	29.1	6.7	1.5	0.0	2.2	CON	Brexit
303	150	Derbyshire Mid	Pauline Latham	67,466	74.7	29.7	20.3	13.3	25.8	7.2	1.4	0.0	2.2	CON	CON
329	124	Charnwood	Edward Argar	78,071	70.7	31.0	19.0	12.2	27.0	7.2	1.6	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
332	120	Bosworth	David Tredinnick	80,633	69.7	26.5	13.9	22.1	27.9	6.0	1.4	0.0	2.1	CON	Brexit
332	120	Boston and Skegness	Matt Warman	68,391	62.7	27.4	14.8	7.6	39.1	6.5	2.6	0.0	2.0	CON	Brexit
338	115	Derbyshire Dales	Patrick McLoughlin	64,418	77.0	30.4	17.4	15.5	25.7	7.3	1.3	0.0	2.3	CON	CON
341	112	Gainsborough	Edward Leigh	75,893	67.8	29.6	16.4	14.2	29.4	6.7	1.5	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
349	104	Leicestershire South	Alberto Costa	78,895	71.9	30.8	17.0	12.6	28.5	7.1	1.7	0.0	2.2	CON	CON
351	101	Louth and Horncastle	Victoria Atkins	79,006	66.8	29.5	15.3	10.5	34.2	6.5	1.8	0.0	2.1	CON	Brexit
353	100	Newark	Robert Jenrick	75,526	72.9	31.4	17.1	13.4	27.8	6.7	1.5	0.0	2.2	CON	CON
362	91	Grantham and Stamford	Nick Boles	81,762	69.2	30.4	15.6	13.1	30.1	7.0	1.7	0.0	2.2	CON	CON
388	65	Sleaford and North Hykeham	Caroline Johnson	90,925	72.4	31.7	14.9	11.8	31.1	6.6	1.7	0.0	2.2	CON	CON
389	64	Northamptonshire South	Andrea Leadsom	85,756	75.8	32.5	15.7	14.4	25.9	7.8	1.5	0.0	2.2	CON	CON
395	58	Daventry	Chris Heaton-Harris	75,335	73.9	31.6	14.3	14.3	28.9	7.1	1.5	0.0	2.2	CON	CON
402	51	Rutland and Melton	Alan Duncan	78,463	73.4	31.6	13.5	16.2	27.4	7.5	1.6	0.0	2.3	CON	CON
409	43	South Holland and The Deepings	John Hayes	76,381	65.9	31.5	12.7	8.8	36.7	6.3	2.1	0.0	1.9	CON	Brexit

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.