East Midlands: Majority Sorted Seats

East Midlands Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 50.7%31 45.6%04-427
LAB 40.5%15 38.4%40+419
LIB 4.3%0 5.4%00+00
UKIP 2.4%0 6.5%00+00
Green 1.5%0 3.3%00+00
Minor 0.6%0 0.9%00+00

This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Leicester South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, South Holland and The Deepings, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Amber Valley (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Lincoln (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Midlands seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
29540Leicester South Jon Ashworth75,53466.916.571.43.64.14.20.00.00.2LABLAB
36533Nottingham East Chris Leslie61,76263.716.569.43.66.13.60.00.00.7LABLAB
59510Leicester East Keith Vaz77,78867.419.164.93.64.13.90.03.31.1LABLAB
105464Nottingham South Lilian Greenwood71,17867.625.860.34.36.43.10.00.00.2LABLAB
123446Leicester West Liz Kendall64,83457.926.358.73.27.83.50.00.00.6LABLAB
128441Nottingham North Alex Norris66,89457.326.058.12.89.63.30.00.00.2LABLAB
146423Derby South Margaret Beckett69,91864.828.456.23.88.52.90.00.00.2LABLAB
168401Chesterfield Toby Perkins72,06366.529.752.76.57.43.50.00.00.2LABLAB
204365Bolsover Dennis Skinner73,42963.435.449.84.08.61.80.00.00.2LABLAB
215354Bassetlaw John Mann78,53566.538.250.53.24.11.80.01.90.2LABLAB
216353Gedling Vernon Coaker71,22172.637.749.83.16.32.80.00.00.2LABLAB
236333High Peak Ruth George73,25473.540.347.66.04.11.80.00.00.2LABLAB
237332Derby North Chris Williamson69,91969.639.346.45.76.51.80.00.00.2LABLAB
239330Lincoln Karen Lee73,11166.639.645.83.76.73.00.00.01.1LABLAB
249320Ashfield Gloria De Piero78,09964.036.640.53.07.82.60.09.20.2LABLAB
268301Broxtowe Anna Soubry74,01775.041.743.15.16.73.10.00.00.2CONLAB
271298Northampton North Michael Ellis58,18369.442.143.13.67.53.40.00.00.2CONLAB
272297Mansfield Ben Bradley77,81164.541.542.42.49.41.80.02.20.2CONLAB
277292Northampton South Andrew Lewer60,99367.341.841.94.58.03.50.00.00.2CONLAB
287282Corby Tom Pursglove82,43972.844.142.63.66.62.80.00.00.2CONCON
294275Derbyshire North East Lee Rowley72,09769.944.141.43.87.23.30.00.00.2CONCON
304265Loughborough Nicky Morgan79,60768.044.839.94.66.83.60.00.00.2CONCON
308261Erewash Maggie Throup72,99168.247.040.93.54.13.20.00.01.3CONCON
310259Sherwood Mark Spencer76,19670.046.439.73.17.43.10.00.00.2CONCON
325244Rushcliffe Kenneth Clarke74,74078.046.736.05.86.64.60.00.00.2CONCON
347222Amber Valley Nigel Mills68,06567.351.436.33.44.13.30.00.01.5CONCON
368201Kettering Philip Hollobone71,52369.152.834.44.34.14.10.00.00.2CONCON
369200Harborough Neil O'Brien78,64773.247.228.613.76.43.80.00.00.2CONCON
375194Derbyshire South Heather Wheeler76,34168.953.633.94.64.13.60.00.00.2CONCON
378191Derbyshire Mid Pauline Latham67,46674.753.533.44.64.14.20.00.00.2CONCON
379190Wellingborough Peter Bone79,25867.252.331.94.47.53.60.00.00.2CONCON
391178Leicestershire North West Andrew Bridgen75,36271.053.131.37.44.13.90.00.00.2CONCON
425144Derbyshire Dales Patrick McLoughlin64,41877.054.929.07.34.13.90.00.00.8CONCON
430139Charnwood Edward Argar78,07170.755.328.74.86.73.70.00.00.8CONCON
455114Bosworth David Tredinnick80,63369.751.622.018.44.13.70.00.00.2CONCON
459110Leicestershire South Alberto Costa78,89571.956.326.45.38.03.80.00.00.2CONCON
461108Newark Robert Jenrick75,52672.957.627.66.16.61.80.00.00.2CONCON
463106Gainsborough Edward Leigh75,89367.856.726.68.14.14.30.00.00.2CONCON
48782Northamptonshire South Andrea Leadsom85,75675.857.425.26.66.23.90.00.00.7CONCON
49475Grantham and Stamford Nick Boles81,76269.256.924.46.67.23.20.01.50.2CONCON
50366Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins79,00666.858.824.64.88.71.80.00.01.2CONCON
51554Sleaford and North Hykeham Caroline Johnson90,92572.459.123.75.27.03.30.00.01.6CONCON
51950Boston and Skegness Matt Warman68,39162.758.522.82.811.83.10.00.00.9CONCON
52346Daventry Chris Heaton-Harris75,33573.958.622.68.36.83.60.00.00.2CONCON
53039Rutland and Melton Alan Duncan78,46373.457.720.69.27.34.90.00.00.2CONCON
5663South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes76,38165.964.818.33.98.43.60.00.00.9CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.