| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 29.4% | 15 | 22.0% | 1 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| LAB | 35.3% | 29 | 19.7% | 0 | 24 | -24 | 5 |
| LIB | 6.4% | 0 | 8.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Reform | 18.9% | 2 | 31.3% | 26 | 0 | +26 | 28 |
| Green | 6.3% | 0 | 14.6% | 2 | 0 | +2 | 2 |
| Other | 3.7% | 1 | 4.5% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Gedling' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Boston and Skegness', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Ashfield (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Gedling (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 312 | Gedling | Michael Payne | 77,006 | 63.3 | 5.9 | 45.6 | 1.8 | 37.5 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.3 | LAB | LAB |
| 31 | 299 | Chesterfield | Toby Perkins | 71,654 | 58.0 | 4.9 | 44.6 | 1.8 | 39.3 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.9 | LAB | LAB |
| 33 | 297 | Rushcliffe | James William Naish | 79,160 | 72.9 | 23.0 | 24.8 | 11.5 | 19.7 | 16.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | LAB | LAB |
| 36 | 293 | Nottingham East | Nadia Whittome | 69,395 | 52.5 | 9.2 | 23.7 | 5.8 | 19.9 | 32.4 | 4.2 | 4.8 | LAB | Green |
| 44 | 286 | Derby North | Catherine Atkinson | 71,900 | 56.9 | 10.2 | 36.2 | 4.9 | 33.6 | 10.2 | 3.6 | 1.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 45 | 285 | High Peak | Jonathan Brian Pearce | 74,385 | 66.2 | 22.0 | 26.9 | 7.4 | 24.2 | 16.6 | 1.8 | 1.1 | LAB | LAB |
| 61 | 268 | Harborough, Oadby and Wigston | Neil O'Brien | 77,407 | 65.1 | 27.6 | 23.1 | 10.8 | 22.6 | 12.8 | 1.7 | 1.3 | CON | CON |
| 61 | 268 | Leicester South | Shockat Adam | 70,867 | 59.0 | 9.3 | 16.4 | 5.9 | 16.0 | 26.5 | 26.0 | 0.1 | MIN | Green |
| 65 | 265 | Lincoln | Hamish Falconer | 72,313 | 58.3 | 9.5 | 35.2 | 4.4 | 36.3 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 2.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 68 | 262 | Loughborough | Jeevun Sandher | 68,996 | 61.2 | 21.7 | 22.8 | 8.8 | 24.5 | 19.1 | 2.0 | 1.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 88 | 242 | Leicester West | Liz Kendall | 74,102 | 47.8 | 13.7 | 22.8 | 8.1 | 27.4 | 21.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 94 | 236 | Broxtowe | Juliet Campbell | 71,923 | 66.5 | 20.6 | 22.3 | 9.3 | 27.8 | 15.9 | 2.1 | 1.9 | LAB | Reform |
| 97 | 233 | Corby and East Northamptonshire | Lee Barron | 78,787 | 62.9 | 24.5 | 21.5 | 6.8 | 27.0 | 17.3 | 1.6 | 1.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 102 | 228 | Northampton North | Lucy Rigby | 75,575 | 55.3 | 17.0 | 22.7 | 5.8 | 28.5 | 19.6 | 3.6 | 2.8 | LAB | Reform |
| 105 | 224 | Northampton South | Mike Reader | 70,393 | 62.4 | 25.7 | 19.3 | 7.3 | 25.6 | 19.1 | 1.6 | 1.4 | LAB | CON |
| 105 | 224 | Leicester East | Shivani Raja | 76,560 | 61.0 | 20.5 | 12.2 | 14.2 | 18.5 | 14.5 | 7.3 | 12.9 | CON | CON |
| 109 | 221 | Derbyshire Dales | John Michael Whitby | 73,317 | 69.9 | 23.9 | 20.9 | 12.3 | 27.6 | 11.0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 132 | 198 | Nottingham South | Lilian Greenwood | 64,255 | 51.2 | 13.1 | 20.7 | 5.8 | 29.1 | 25.3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | LAB | Reform |
| 137 | 193 | Derbyshire South | Samantha Niblett | 73,714 | 62.0 | 22.2 | 21.7 | 7.9 | 30.8 | 13.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 142 | 188 | Derbyshire Mid | Jonathan Peter Tom Davies | 69,281 | 68.6 | 23.3 | 19.3 | 10.9 | 28.8 | 13.4 | 2.5 | 1.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 143 | 187 | Kettering | Rosie Wrighting | 79,390 | 63.3 | 25.5 | 16.6 | 6.5 | 26.1 | 21.3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 158 | 172 | Wellingborough and Rushden | Gen Kitchen | 77,559 | 56.7 | 24.2 | 19.3 | 5.2 | 30.7 | 18.1 | 1.4 | 1.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 166 | 164 | Erewash | Adam Thompson | 71,497 | 60.2 | 17.1 | 22.3 | 7.8 | 34.4 | 14.0 | 3.0 | 1.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 166 | 163 | Northamptonshire South | Sarah Bool | 78,233 | 68.6 | 35.4 | 15.6 | 7.3 | 27.8 | 10.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | CON | CON |
| 179 | 151 | Derbyshire North East | Louise Elizabeth Jones | 73,139 | 62.7 | 21.6 | 21.4 | 7.1 | 34.5 | 11.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | LAB | Reform |
| 179 | 150 | Leicestershire Mid | Peter Bedford | 75,933 | 63.3 | 32.5 | 17.2 | 6.5 | 30.3 | 11.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 | CON | CON |
| 188 | 142 | Bassetlaw | Jo White | 78,173 | 57.4 | 19.1 | 23.0 | 5.5 | 36.7 | 13.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 198 | 132 | Sherwood Forest | Michelle Welsh | 78,894 | 61.7 | 23.5 | 19.6 | 7.0 | 33.7 | 13.4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 216 | 113 | Newark | Robert Jenrick | 80,028 | 66.8 | 41.0 | 14.0 | 4.7 | 30.1 | 7.8 | 1.1 | 1.3 | CON | CON |
| 218 | 112 | Leicestershire North West | Amanda Hack | 77,757 | 62.5 | 21.0 | 19.8 | 6.4 | 35.9 | 12.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | LAB | Reform |
| 221 | 109 | Bolsover | Natalie Fleet | 77,207 | 55.0 | 14.2 | 24.5 | 4.2 | 40.8 | 12.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 225 | 105 | Nottingham North and Kimberley | Alex Norris | 73,768 | 47.5 | 13.8 | 20.2 | 5.1 | 36.7 | 20.3 | 2.7 | 1.3 | LAB | Reform |
| 232 | 98 | Mansfield | Steve Yemm | 73,817 | 55.7 | 20.7 | 20.5 | 4.7 | 38.0 | 12.8 | 1.5 | 1.7 | LAB | Reform |
| 237 | 92 | Rutland and Stamford | Alicia Kearns | 71,711 | 67.7 | 46.2 | 10.2 | 6.3 | 28.1 | 6.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 | CON | CON |
| 252 | 77 | Hinckley and Bosworth | Luke Evans | 76,431 | 62.5 | 34.5 | 11.9 | 12.7 | 31.4 | 7.1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | CON | CON |
| 257 | 73 | Amber Valley | Linsey Farnsworth | 71,546 | 59.4 | 16.7 | 20.6 | 6.0 | 40.7 | 12.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 258 | 72 | Daventry | Stuart Andrew | 80,879 | 65.6 | 32.1 | 12.8 | 8.9 | 32.9 | 9.9 | 2.0 | 1.4 | CON | Reform |
| 264 | 65 | Leicestershire South | Alberto Costa | 78,543 | 65.4 | 38.7 | 11.4 | 8.2 | 32.0 | 7.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | CON | CON |
| 266 | 64 | Gainsborough | Sir Edward Leigh | 75,836 | 61.6 | 34.7 | 14.3 | 7.0 | 35.0 | 7.0 | 1.1 | 0.9 | CON | Reform |
| 281 | 49 | Derby South | Baggy Shanker | 72,952 | 51.3 | 13.4 | 16.5 | 5.4 | 38.6 | 17.6 | 5.5 | 3.1 | LAB | Reform |
| 304 | 25 | Melton and Syston | Edward Argar | 74,316 | 61.9 | 42.8 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 34.2 | 7.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | CON | CON |
| 309 | 20 | Grantham and Bourne | Gareth Davies | 73,280 | 62.9 | 41.9 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 36.1 | 6.5 | 1.2 | 2.1 | CON | CON |
| 310 | 19 | Sleaford and North Hykeham | Caroline Johnson | 75,807 | 64.1 | 41.0 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 36.7 | 6.4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | CON | CON |
| 320 | 10 | Louth and Horncastle | Victoria Atkins | 76,882 | 60.5 | 39.1 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 42.2 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 1.3 | CON | Reform |
| 323 | 7 | South Holland and The Deepings | John Hayes | 78,473 | 58.5 | 39.5 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 42.3 | 5.3 | 1.1 | 2.6 | CON | Reform |
| 327 | 3 | Ashfield | Lee Anderson | 68,929 | 57.9 | 13.1 | 11.5 | 3.5 | 53.9 | 12.0 | 4.6 | 1.4 | Reform | Reform |
| 329 | 1 | Boston and Skegness | Richard Tice | 75,811 | 53.4 | 30.8 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 54.8 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 1.4 | Reform | Reform |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.