East Midlands: Majority Sorted Seats

East Midlands Prediction

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	54.8%	38	52.9%	0	3	-3	35
LAB	31.7%	8	35.1%	3	0	+3	11
LIB	7.8%	0	5.0%	0	0	+0	0
Brexit	1.5%	0	0.9%	0	0	+0	0
Green	2.6%	0	3.3%	0	0	+0	0
Other	1.7%	0	2.7%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Leicester South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, South Holland and The Deepings, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Bassetlaw (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Derby North (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Midlands seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2019	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Brexit %	Green %	MIN %	OTH %	2019 Win	Pred Win
34	530	Leicester South	Jonathan Ashworth	77,708	64.5	20.0	70.1	3.5	1.4	4.0	0.0	1.0	LAB	LAB
41	523	Nottingham East	Nadia Whittome	66,262	60.4	19.0	67.5	3.1	2.0	3.7	0.0	4.6	LAB	LAB
87	477	Nottingham South	Lilian Greenwood	79,485	60.6	27.3	59.4	5.3	2.5	4.2	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
132	432	Derby South	Margaret Beckett	73,062	58.1	35.1	55.2	4.0	3.5	0.9	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
142	422	Nottingham North	Alex Norris	66,495	53.1	34.6	53.3	2.9	4.6	3.4	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
154	410	Leicester West	Liz Kendall	64,940	53.5	35.8	53.3	3.4	2.8	3.6	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
159	405	Leicester East	Claudia Webbe	78,433	63.0	36.8	53.9	3.7	1.5	2.5	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
186	378	Chesterfield	Toby Perkins	71,034	63.6	35.2	46.1	5.7	6.4	3.8	0.0	2.7	LAB	LAB
213	351	High Peak	Robert Largan	74,265	72.9	44.0	47.7	3.3	1.3	2.8	0.0	0.9	CON	LAB
215	349	Gedling	Tom Randall	71,366	70.0	43.7	47.3	2.9	2.2	2.9	0.0	1.0	CON	LAB
227	337	Derby North	Amanda Solloway	73,199	64.2	43.4	43.7	4.7	2.5	3.1	0.0	2.6	CON	LAB
243	321	Lincoln	Karl McCartney	74,942	67.6	46.1	43.8	3.1	1.3	3.0	0.0	2.7	CON	CON
259	305	Bolsover	Mark Fletcher	74,292	61.8	45.6	40.3	2.5	5.5	2.6	0.0	3.5	CON	CON
266	298	Rushcliffe	Ruth Edwards	77,047	78.5	45.7	39.8	10.2	0.0	1.1	0.0	3.2	CON	CON
269	295	Broxtowe	Darren Henry	73,052	75.7	46.3	39.7	0.0	0.0	3.5	8.4	2.0	CON	CON
271	293	Northampton South	Andrew Lewer	62,163	65.7	49.4	42.3	3.9	0.0	3.6	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
276	288	Loughborough	Jane Hunt	79,764	68.5	49.3	41.0	4.9	0.0	3.4	0.0	1.4	CON	CON
282	282	Northampton North	Michael Ellis	58,768	67.3	51.4	41.6	3.3	0.0	2.9	0.0	0.7	CON	CON
284	280	Ashfield	Lee Anderson	78,204	62.6	37.4	27.5	1.5	3.1	2.0	27.6	1.0	CON	CON
298	266	Corby	Tom Pursglove	86,153	70.2	53.4	41.0	4.2	0.0	0.6	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
319	245	Erewash	Maggie Throup	72,523	67.3	54.6	37.1	3.3	0.0	2.8	0.0	2.2	CON	CON
329	235	Bassetlaw	Brendan Clarke-Smith	80,024	63.5	53.4	33.1	4.2	6.4	1.2	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
337	227	Derbyshire North East	Lee Rowley	72,345	68.0	56.9	35.2	4.0	0.0	3.2	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
343	221	Harborough	Neil O'Brien	80,151	71.5	53.5	30.0	10.2	0.0	4.1	0.0	2.2	CON	CON
363	201	Derbyshire Mid	Pauline Latham	67,442	73.2	57.0	31.1	6.2	0.0	4.7	0.0	1.1	CON	CON
369	195	Sherwood	Mark Spencer	77,888	67.7	59.0	32.5	3.5	0.0	2.8	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
390	174	Derbyshire Dales	Sarah Dines	65,080	76.9	56.9	28.2	8.5	0.0	5.1	0.0	1.3	CON	CON
397	167	Mansfield	Ben Bradley	77,131	63.9	62.1	32.8	2.1	0.0	0.4	0.0	2.6	CON	CON
399	165	Kettering	Philip Hollobone	73,164	67.5	58.5	29.1	4.4	0.0	3.7	0.0	4.2	CON	CON
410	154	Wellingborough	Peter Bone	80,765	64.3	60.4	29.5	5.1	0.0	4.2	0.0	0.9	CON	CON
417	147	Derbyshire South	Heather Wheeler	79,331	67.3	60.9	29.4	4.7	0.0	4.0	0.0	0.9	CON	CON
427	137	Amber Valley	Nigel Mills	69,976	65.1	62.0	29.4	4.1	0.0	3.6	0.0	0.8	CON	CON
438	126	Leicestershire North West	Andrew Bridgen	78,935	68.2	61.0	27.7	4.3	0.0	5.2	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
458	106	Newark	Robert Jenrick	75,850	72.2	61.5	26.9	6.2	0.0	4.3	0.0	1.1	CON	CON
468	96	Charnwood	Edward Argar	79,534	69.6	61.6	26.2	5.7	0.0	5.5	0.0	1.0	CON	CON
471	93	Northamptonshire South	Andrea Leadsom	90,842	73.7	60.6	24.8	7.6	0.0	4.8	0.0	2.2	CON	CON
476	88	Leicestershire South	Alberto Costa	80,520	71.4	62.2	25.6	6.1	0.0	5.0	0.0	1.1	CON	CON
511	53	Daventry	Chris Heaton-Harris	77,423	74.1	62.7	23.1	7.9	0.0	5.0	0.0	1.3	CON	CON
513	51	Gainsborough	Edward Leigh	76,343	66.9	64.6	24.9	6.5	0.0	0.8	0.0	3.2	CON	CON
516	48	Bosworth	Luke Evans	81,542	69.2	62.1	22.2	10.4	0.0	3.7	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
518	46	Rutland and Melton	Alicia Kearns	82,705	70.5	60.8	20.8	8.8	0.0	5.9	0.0	3.7	CON	CON
524	40	Grantham and Stamford	Gareth Davies	81,502	68.7	63.9	23.0	7.1	0.0	4.9	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
546	18	Sleaford and North Hykeham	Caroline Johnson	94,761	70.2	65.3	21.3	5.2	0.0	3.3	0.0	5.0	CON	CON
555	9	Louth and Horncastle	Victoria Atkins	79,634	65.7	70.8	20.5	5.1	0.0	0.7	0.0	2.9	CON	CON
562	2	Boston and Skegness	Matt Warman	69,381	60.1	74.8	17.5	3.0	0.0	0.5	0.0	4.1	CON	CON
563	1	South Holland and The Deepings	John Hayes	75,975	64.7	74.1	15.9	4.2	0.0	3.9	0.0	1.9	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.