East Midlands: Majority Sorted Seats

East Midlands Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 54.8%38 52.9%03-335
LAB 31.7%8 35.1%30+311
LIB 7.8%0 5.0%00+00
Brexit 1.5%0 0.9%00+00
Green 2.6%0 3.3%00+00
Other 1.7%0 2.7%00+00

This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Leicester South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, South Holland and The Deepings, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Bassetlaw (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Derby North (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of East Midlands seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Brexit
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2019
Win
Pred
Win
34530Leicester South Jonathan Ashworth77,70864.520.070.13.51.44.00.01.0LABLAB
41523Nottingham East Nadia Whittome66,26260.419.067.53.12.03.70.04.6LABLAB
87477Nottingham South Lilian Greenwood79,48560.627.359.45.32.54.20.01.3LABLAB
132432Derby South Margaret Beckett73,06258.135.155.24.03.50.90.01.3LABLAB
142422Nottingham North Alex Norris66,49553.134.653.32.94.63.40.01.3LABLAB
154410Leicester West Liz Kendall64,94053.535.853.33.42.83.60.01.1LABLAB
159405Leicester East Claudia Webbe78,43363.036.853.93.71.52.50.01.7LABLAB
186378Chesterfield Toby Perkins71,03463.635.246.15.76.43.80.02.7LABLAB
213351High Peak Robert Largan74,26572.944.047.73.31.32.80.00.9CONLAB
215349Gedling Tom Randall71,36670.043.747.32.92.22.90.01.0CONLAB
227337Derby North Amanda Solloway73,19964.243.443.74.72.53.10.02.6CONLAB
243321Lincoln Karl McCartney74,94267.646.143.83.11.33.00.02.7CONCON
259305Bolsover Mark Fletcher74,29261.845.640.32.55.52.60.03.5CONCON
266298Rushcliffe Ruth Edwards77,04778.545.739.810.20.01.10.03.2CONCON
269295Broxtowe Darren Henry73,05275.746.339.70.00.03.58.42.0CONCON
271293Northampton South Andrew Lewer62,16365.749.442.33.90.03.60.00.8CONCON
276288Loughborough Jane Hunt79,76468.549.341.04.90.03.40.01.4CONCON
282282Northampton North Michael Ellis58,76867.351.441.63.30.02.90.00.7CONCON
284280Ashfield Lee Anderson78,20462.637.427.51.53.12.027.61.0CONCON
298266Corby Tom Pursglove86,15370.253.441.04.20.00.60.00.8CONCON
319245Erewash Maggie Throup72,52367.354.637.13.30.02.80.02.2CONCON
329235Bassetlaw Brendan Clarke-Smith80,02463.553.433.14.26.41.20.01.7CONCON
337227Derbyshire North East Lee Rowley72,34568.056.935.24.00.03.20.00.8CONCON
343221Harborough Neil O'Brien80,15171.553.530.010.20.04.10.02.2CONCON
363201Derbyshire Mid Pauline Latham67,44273.257.031.16.20.04.70.01.1CONCON
369195Sherwood Mark Spencer77,88867.759.032.53.50.02.80.02.1CONCON
390174Derbyshire Dales Sarah Dines65,08076.956.928.28.50.05.10.01.3CONCON
397167Mansfield Ben Bradley77,13163.962.132.82.10.00.40.02.6CONCON
399165Kettering Philip Hollobone73,16467.558.529.14.40.03.70.04.2CONCON
410154Wellingborough Peter Bone80,76564.360.429.55.10.04.20.00.9CONCON
417147Derbyshire South Heather Wheeler79,33167.360.929.44.70.04.00.00.9CONCON
427137Amber Valley Nigel Mills69,97665.162.029.44.10.03.60.00.8CONCON
438126Leicestershire North West Andrew Bridgen78,93568.261.027.74.30.05.20.01.8CONCON
458106Newark Robert Jenrick75,85072.261.526.96.20.04.30.01.1CONCON
46896Charnwood Edward Argar79,53469.661.626.25.70.05.50.01.0CONCON
47193Northamptonshire South Andrea Leadsom90,84273.760.624.87.60.04.80.02.2CONCON
47688Leicestershire South Alberto Costa80,52071.462.225.66.10.05.00.01.1CONCON
51153Daventry Chris Heaton-Harris77,42374.162.723.17.90.05.00.01.3CONCON
51351Gainsborough Edward Leigh76,34366.964.624.96.50.00.80.03.2CONCON
51648Bosworth Luke Evans81,54269.262.122.210.40.03.70.01.6CONCON
51846Rutland and Melton Alicia Kearns82,70570.560.820.88.80.05.90.03.7CONCON
52440Grantham and Stamford Gareth Davies81,50268.763.923.07.10.04.90.01.2CONCON
54618Sleaford and North Hykeham Caroline Johnson94,76170.265.321.35.20.03.30.05.0CONCON
5559Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins79,63465.770.820.55.10.00.70.02.9CONCON
5622Boston and Skegness Matt Warman69,38160.174.817.53.00.00.50.04.1CONCON
5631South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes75,97564.774.115.94.20.03.90.01.9CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.