| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 29.4% | 15 | 21.7% | 0 | 11 | -11 | 4 |
| LAB | 35.3% | 29 | 27.9% | 3 | 7 | -4 | 25 |
| LIB | 6.4% | 0 | 5.9% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Reform | 18.9% | 2 | 27.8% | 16 | 0 | +16 | 18 |
| Green | 6.3% | 0 | 9.2% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Other | 3.7% | 1 | 7.5% | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in East Midlands sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Nottingham East' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Boston and Skegness', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Leicestershire Mid (prediction: Reform), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Nottingham East (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 356 | Nottingham East | Nadia Whittome | 69,395 | 52.5 | 7.7 | 42.1 | 3.5 | 17.9 | 21.3 | 7.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 100 | 309 | Leicester South | Shockat Adam | 70,867 | 59.0 | 8.8 | 33.7 | 3.2 | 15.7 | 25.0 | 13.6 | 0.0 | MIN | LAB |
| 101 | 308 | Rushcliffe | James William Naish | 79,160 | 72.9 | 25.6 | 36.2 | 5.3 | 18.4 | 11.1 | 3.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 107 | 302 | Nottingham South | Lilian Greenwood | 64,255 | 51.2 | 5.7 | 46.9 | 1.6 | 29.5 | 6.4 | 9.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 131 | 278 | Gedling | Michael Payne | 77,006 | 63.3 | 7.8 | 47.3 | 1.4 | 32.8 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 135 | 274 | Leicester West | Liz Kendall | 74,102 | 47.8 | 4.4 | 48.3 | 1.0 | 34.0 | 4.7 | 7.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 146 | 263 | Derby North | Catherine Atkinson | 71,900 | 56.9 | 6.0 | 48.2 | 1.2 | 34.4 | 3.4 | 6.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 151 | 258 | High Peak | Jonathan Brian Pearce | 74,385 | 66.2 | 21.2 | 35.8 | 5.2 | 22.6 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 181 | 228 | Lincoln | Hamish Falconer | 72,313 | 58.3 | 5.7 | 46.9 | 1.1 | 35.9 | 3.1 | 7.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 188 | 221 | Chesterfield | Toby Perkins | 71,654 | 58.0 | 5.0 | 47.2 | 1.1 | 37.1 | 2.8 | 6.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 197 | 212 | Kettering | Rosie Wrighting | 79,390 | 63.3 | 22.4 | 29.2 | 7.8 | 19.8 | 14.3 | 6.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 199 | 210 | Nottingham North and Kimberley | Alex Norris | 73,768 | 47.5 | 4.9 | 44.4 | 0.7 | 35.3 | 3.5 | 11.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 201 | 208 | Loughborough | Jeevun Sandher | 68,996 | 61.2 | 21.1 | 31.8 | 6.6 | 22.7 | 12.0 | 5.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 205 | 204 | Derbyshire Dales | John Michael Whitby | 73,317 | 69.9 | 29.1 | 30.7 | 7.4 | 22.0 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 206 | 203 | Northampton North | Lucy Rigby | 75,575 | 55.3 | 11.2 | 39.7 | 3.6 | 31.0 | 6.3 | 8.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 226 | 183 | Broxtowe | Juliet Campbell | 71,923 | 66.5 | 6.1 | 44.6 | 1.6 | 37.5 | 2.7 | 7.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 227 | 182 | Derbyshire Mid | Jonathan Peter Tom Davies | 69,281 | 68.6 | 26.7 | 31.0 | 5.0 | 24.0 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 237 | 172 | Harborough, Oadby and Wigston | Neil O'Brien | 77,407 | 65.1 | 26.3 | 27.9 | 9.1 | 21.5 | 10.5 | 4.7 | 0.0 | CON | LAB |
| 238 | 171 | Corby and East Northamptonshire | Lee Barron | 78,787 | 62.9 | 23.9 | 29.3 | 9.2 | 23.0 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 263 | 146 | Leicester East | Shivani Raja | 76,560 | 61.0 | 22.8 | 26.6 | 5.6 | 22.3 | 18.1 | 4.6 | 0.0 | CON | LAB |
| 264 | 145 | Northampton South | Mike Reader | 70,393 | 62.4 | 24.2 | 26.2 | 12.1 | 22.0 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 276 | 133 | Derby South | Baggy Shanker | 72,952 | 51.3 | 4.1 | 41.3 | 0.9 | 38.1 | 3.1 | 12.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 277 | 132 | Erewash | Adam Thompson | 71,497 | 60.2 | 6.5 | 42.3 | 1.0 | 39.2 | 2.5 | 8.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 293 | 116 | Derbyshire South | Samantha Niblett | 73,714 | 62.0 | 22.3 | 29.8 | 5.6 | 27.5 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 309 | 100 | Wellingborough and Rushden | Gen Kitchen | 77,559 | 56.7 | 24.3 | 25.3 | 8.8 | 25.0 | 8.7 | 7.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 317 | 92 | Derbyshire North East | Louise Elizabeth Jones | 73,139 | 62.7 | 26.6 | 28.6 | 3.3 | 28.9 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 320 | 88 | Daventry | Stuart Andrew | 80,879 | 65.6 | 30.7 | 22.9 | 10.5 | 24.2 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 320 | 88 | Northamptonshire South | Sarah Bool | 78,233 | 68.6 | 27.6 | 23.5 | 9.5 | 24.7 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 334 | 75 | Leicestershire Mid | Peter Bedford | 75,933 | 63.3 | 25.3 | 25.3 | 5.1 | 27.6 | 9.1 | 7.6 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 337 | 72 | Leicestershire North West | Amanda Hack | 77,757 | 62.5 | 27.2 | 26.8 | 3.1 | 29.3 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 348 | 61 | Newark | Robert Jenrick | 80,028 | 66.8 | 27.4 | 24.2 | 5.8 | 28.7 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 352 | 57 | Sherwood Forest | Michelle Welsh | 78,894 | 61.7 | 14.7 | 32.0 | 3.6 | 37.0 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 354 | 55 | Bassetlaw | Jo White | 78,173 | 57.4 | 10.4 | 35.8 | 1.7 | 41.0 | 3.7 | 7.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 358 | 51 | Bolsover | Natalie Fleet | 77,207 | 55.0 | 5.7 | 38.0 | 0.7 | 43.6 | 2.6 | 9.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 360 | 49 | Amber Valley | Linsey Farnsworth | 71,546 | 59.4 | 6.5 | 37.6 | 0.8 | 43.3 | 2.1 | 9.7 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 362 | 47 | Leicestershire South | Alberto Costa | 78,543 | 65.4 | 25.8 | 21.9 | 10.6 | 27.8 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 363 | 46 | Melton and Syston | Edward Argar | 74,316 | 61.9 | 26.3 | 22.3 | 5.2 | 28.2 | 9.3 | 8.7 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 363 | 45 | Rutland and Stamford | Alicia Kearns | 71,711 | 67.7 | 32.8 | 19.3 | 10.2 | 25.4 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 369 | 40 | Mansfield | Steve Yemm | 73,817 | 55.7 | 19.3 | 27.7 | 3.1 | 35.0 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 378 | 31 | Gainsborough | Sir Edward Leigh | 75,836 | 61.6 | 25.7 | 22.4 | 8.3 | 31.1 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 386 | 23 | Sleaford and North Hykeham | Caroline Johnson | 75,807 | 64.1 | 24.8 | 21.3 | 4.7 | 34.1 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 389 | 20 | Grantham and Bourne | Gareth Davies | 73,280 | 62.9 | 25.4 | 20.8 | 4.6 | 33.9 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 392 | 16 | Hinckley and Bosworth | Luke Evans | 76,431 | 62.5 | 31.6 | 14.9 | 13.6 | 29.2 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 400 | 9 | Ashfield | Lee Anderson | 68,929 | 57.9 | 8.4 | 23.1 | 2.8 | 43.4 | 4.5 | 17.7 | 0.0 | Reform | Reform |
| 402 | 7 | Louth and Horncastle | Victoria Atkins | 76,882 | 60.5 | 32.6 | 12.0 | 2.8 | 38.7 | 3.8 | 10.0 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 404 | 5 | South Holland and The Deepings | John Hayes | 78,473 | 58.5 | 35.8 | 9.5 | 2.1 | 39.1 | 2.9 | 10.6 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 408 | 1 | Boston and Skegness | Richard Tice | 75,811 | 53.4 | 33.9 | 7.2 | 1.4 | 46.3 | 2.4 | 8.9 | 0.0 | Reform | Reform |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.