Constituency List: England C-E

Calder Valley

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Craig Whittaker (CON)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	79,287
Turnout:	72.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,981	51.9%	27.0%
LAB	24,207	41.9%	54.4%
LIB	2,884	5.0%	5.9%
OTH	721	1.2%	0.6%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.3%
Green	0	0.0%	3.8%
CON Majority	5,774	10.0%	27.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

96%

LIB

OTH

Reform

Green

Camberwell and Peckham

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Harriet Harman (LAB)
County/Area:	Southwark (London)
Electorate:	88,971
Turnout:	63.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	40,258	71.3%	73.3%
CON	6,478	11.5%	8.1%
LIB	5,087	9.0%	3.7%
Green	3,501	6.2%	9.4%
Reform	1,041	1.8%	5.2%
OTH	127	0.2%	0.3%
LAB Majority	33,780	59.8%	63.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Camborne and Redruth

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	George Eustice (CON)
County/Area:	Cornwall (South West)
Electorate:	70,250
Turnout:	71.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,764	53.1%	29.4%
LAB	18,064	35.9%	44.9%
LIB	3,504	7.0%	12.0%
Green	1,359	2.7%	4.9%
OTH	676	1.3%	0.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.2%
CON Majority	8,700	17.3%	15.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

15%

LAB

84%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Cambridge

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Daniel Zeichner (LAB)
County/Area:	Cambridgeshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	79,951
Turnout:	67.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	25,776	48.0%	52.8%
LIB	16,137	30.0%	20.9%
CON	8,342	15.5%	10.5%
Green	2,164	4.0%	10.4%
Reform	1,041	1.9%	5.2%
OTH	269	0.5%	0.3%
LAB Majority	9,639	17.9%	31.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

98%

LIB

CON

Green

Reform

OTH

Cambridgeshire North East

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Steve Barclay (CON)
County/Area:	Cambridgeshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	83,699
Turnout:	63.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	38,423	72.5%	41.9%
LAB	8,430	15.9%	32.4%
LIB	4,298	8.1%	11.3%
Green	1,813	3.4%	4.8%
Reform	0	0.0%	9.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
CON Majority	29,993	56.6%	9.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

73%

LAB

27%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Cambridgeshire North West

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Shailesh Vara (CON)
County/Area:	Cambridgeshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	94,909
Turnout:	68.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	40,307	62.5%	36.6%
LAB	14,324	22.2%	36.9%
LIB	6,881	10.7%	12.0%
Green	3,021	4.7%	6.0%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	25,983	40.3%	0.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

51%

LAB

49%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Cambridgeshire South

Prediction: LIB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Anthony Browne (CON)
County/Area:	Cambridgeshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	87,288
Turnout:	76.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,015	46.3%	28.8%
LIB	28,111	42.0%	32.7%
LAB	7,803	11.7%	27.6%
Reform	0	0.0%	6.1%
Green	0	0.0%	4.5%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.2%
CON Majority	2,904	4.3%	3.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

29%

LIB

47%

LAB

24%

Reform

Green

OTH

Cambridgeshire South East

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Lucy Frazer (CON)
County/Area:	Cambridgeshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	86,769
Turnout:	74.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,187	50.0%	30.8%
LIB	20,697	32.1%	28.6%
LAB	10,492	16.3%	29.7%
OTH	1,009	1.6%	0.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	6.6%
Green	0	0.0%	4.0%
CON Majority	11,490	17.8%	1.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

38%

LIB

28%

LAB

33%

OTH

Reform

Green

Cannock Chase

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Amanda Milling (CON)
County/Area:	Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	74,813
Turnout:	61.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,636	68.3%	37.0%
LAB	11,757	25.4%	41.9%
Green	2,920	6.3%	5.5%
LIB	0	0.0%	6.2%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.6%
CON Majority	19,879	42.9%	4.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

36%

LAB

64%

Green

LIB

Reform

OTH

Canterbury

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Rosie Duffield (LAB)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	80,203
Turnout:	75.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	29,018	48.3%	53.3%
CON	27,182	45.2%	26.8%
LIB	3,408	5.7%	8.4%
OTH	505	0.8%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	6.2%
Green	0	0.0%	4.9%
LAB Majority	1,836	3.1%	26.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

95%

CON

LIB

OTH

Reform

Green

Carlisle

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	John Stevenson (CON)
County/Area:	Cumbria (North West)
Electorate:	65,105
Turnout:	65.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,659	55.2%	28.5%
LAB	15,340	35.8%	52.6%
LIB	2,829	6.6%	6.2%
OTH	1,045	2.4%	0.7%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.6%
Green	0	0.0%	3.4%
CON Majority	8,319	19.4%	24.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

94%

LIB

OTH

Reform

Green

Carshalton and Wallington

Prediction: LIB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Elliot Colburn (CON)
County/Area:	Sutton (London)
Electorate:	72,941
Turnout:	67.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,822	42.4%	26.9%
LIB	20,193	41.1%	34.1%
LAB	6,081	12.4%	25.8%
Reform	1,043	2.1%	7.8%
Green	759	1.5%	5.2%
OTH	200	0.4%	0.2%
CON Majority	629	1.3%	7.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

23%

LIB

54%

LAB

23%

Reform

Green

OTH

Castle Point

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Rebecca Harris (CON)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	69,608
Turnout:	63.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	33,971	76.7%	46.1%
LAB	7,337	16.6%	32.5%
LIB	2,969	6.7%	8.1%
Reform	0	0.0%	9.0%
Green	0	0.0%	4.0%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	26,634	60.2%	13.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

81%

LAB

19%

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Charnwood

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Edward Argar (CON)
County/Area:	Leicestershire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	79,534
Turnout:	69.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	35,121	63.4%	35.7%
LAB	12,724	23.0%	39.6%
LIB	4,856	8.8%	8.8%
Green	2,664	4.8%	5.8%
Reform	0	0.0%	9.5%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
CON Majority	22,397	40.5%	3.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

40%

LAB

60%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Chatham and Aylesford

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Tracey Crouch (CON)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	71,642
Turnout:	60.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,856	66.6%	37.2%
LAB	10,316	23.8%	40.9%
LIB	2,866	6.6%	8.5%
Green	1,090	2.5%	4.7%
OTH	212	0.5%	0.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.2%
CON Majority	18,540	42.8%	3.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

41%

LAB

59%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Cheadle

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Mary Robinson (CON)
County/Area:	Eastern Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	74,577
Turnout:	75.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	25,694	46.0%	29.9%
LIB	23,358	41.8%	28.1%
LAB	6,851	12.3%	29.8%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.5%
Green	0	0.0%	4.6%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.2%
CON Majority	2,336	4.2%	0.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

37%

LIB

25%

LAB

37%

Reform

Green

OTH

Chelmsford

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Vicky Ford (CON)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	80,394
Turnout:	71.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,934	55.9%	34.0%
LIB	14,313	25.1%	20.6%
LAB	10,295	18.0%	33.6%
OTH	580	1.0%	0.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	6.9%
Green	0	0.0%	4.5%
CON Majority	17,621	30.8%	0.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

49%

LIB

LAB

46%

OTH

Reform

Green

Chelsea and Fulham

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Greg Hands (CON)
County/Area:	Hammersmith and Fulham (London)
Electorate:	67,110
Turnout:	69.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,345	49.9%	32.8%
LIB	12,104	25.9%	11.9%
LAB	10,872	23.2%	41.9%
OTH	500	1.1%	0.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	6.5%
Green	0	0.0%	6.6%
CON Majority	11,241	24.0%	9.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

26%

LIB

LAB

73%

OTH

Reform

Green

Cheltenham

Prediction: LIB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Alex Chalk (CON)
County/Area:	Gloucestershire (South West)
Electorate:	81,044
Turnout:	73.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,486	48.0%	28.0%
LIB	27,505	46.3%	44.4%
LAB	2,921	4.9%	18.5%
OTH	445	0.7%	0.2%
Reform	0	0.0%	5.7%
Green	0	0.0%	3.3%
CON Majority	981	1.7%	16.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

13%

LIB

85%

LAB

OTH

Reform

Green

Chesham and Amersham

Prediction: LIB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Cheryl Gillan (CON)
County/Area:	Buckinghamshire (South East)
Electorate:	72,542
Turnout:	76.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,850	55.4%	37.0%
LIB	14,627	26.3%	38.5%
LAB	7,166	12.9%	13.7%
Green	3,042	5.5%	4.7%
Reform	0	0.0%	5.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
CON Majority	16,223	29.1%	1.5% Pred Maj

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Result shown is the original general election result, before the death of Ms Gillan in April 2021. Sarah Green (Lib Dem) won the seat in a by-election on 17 June 2021.

Chance of winning

CON

47%

LIB

53%

LAB

Green

Reform

OTH

Chester, City of

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Chris Matheson (LAB)
County/Area:	Cheshire (North West)
Electorate:	76,057
Turnout:	71.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	27,082	49.6%	59.9%
CON	20,918	38.3%	23.0%
LIB	3,734	6.8%	6.5%
Green	1,438	2.6%	3.7%
Reform	1,388	2.5%	6.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.7%
LAB Majority	6,164	11.3%	36.8% Pred Maj

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Result shown is the original general election result, before the resignation of Chris Matheson. Samantha Dixon (Labour) won the seat in a by-election on 1 December 2022.

Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Chesterfield

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Toby Perkins (LAB)
County/Area:	Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	71,034
Turnout:	63.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,171	40.2%	52.5%
CON	16,720	37.0%	20.7%
Reform	4,771	10.6%	11.4%
LIB	3,985	8.8%	9.2%
Green	1,148	2.5%	5.5%
OTH	391	0.9%	0.7%
LAB Majority	1,451	3.2%	31.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

97%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Chichester

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Gillian Keegan (CON)
County/Area:	West Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	85,499
Turnout:	71.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	35,402	57.8%	36.4%
LIB	13,912	22.7%	21.2%
LAB	9,069	14.8%	28.4%
Green	2,527	4.1%	5.7%
OTH	333	0.5%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.0%
CON Majority	21,490	35.1%	8.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

67%

LIB

LAB

26%

Green

OTH

Reform

Chingford and Woodford Green

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Iain Duncan Smith (CON)
County/Area:	Waltham Forest (London)
Electorate:	65,393
Turnout:	74.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,481	48.5%	29.1%
LAB	22,219	45.9%	55.0%
LIB	2,744	5.7%	3.9%
Reform	0	0.0%	6.6%
Green	0	0.0%	5.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
CON Majority	1,262	2.6%	26.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

95%

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Chippenham

Prediction: LIB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Michelle Donelan (CON)
County/Area:	Wiltshire (South West)
Electorate:	77,221
Turnout:	73.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,994	54.3%	32.3%
LIB	19,706	34.5%	33.7%
LAB	6,399	11.2%	23.8%
Reform	0	0.0%	6.6%
Green	0	0.0%	3.4%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.2%
CON Majority	11,288	19.8%	1.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

42%

LIB

47%

LAB

11%

Reform

Green

OTH

Chipping Barnet

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Theresa Villiers (CON)
County/Area:	Barnet (London)
Electorate:	79,960
Turnout:	72.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	25,745	44.7%	27.7%
LAB	24,533	42.6%	52.5%
LIB	5,932	10.3%	6.4%
Green	1,288	2.2%	6.4%
OTH	71	0.1%	0.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	6.7%
CON Majority	1,212	2.1%	24.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

94%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Chorley

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Lindsay Hoyle (LAB)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	78,177
Turnout:	51.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	26,831	67.3%	70.6%
MIN	9,439	23.7%	0.0%
Green	3,600	9.0%	6.9%
CON	0	0.0%	8.5%
LIB	0	0.0%	3.9%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.3%
LAB Majority	17,392	43.6%	61.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

MIN

Green

CON

LIB

Reform

OTH

Christchurch

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Christopher Chope (CON)
County/Area:	Dorset (South West)
Electorate:	71,520
Turnout:	72.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	33,894	65.2%	42.7%
LIB	9,277	17.9%	18.3%
LAB	6,568	12.6%	25.1%
Green	2,212	4.3%	5.2%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.4%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
CON Majority	24,617	47.4%	17.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

88%

LIB

LAB

10%

Green

Reform

OTH

Cities of London and Westminster

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Nickie Aiken (CON)
County/Area:	City of Westminster (London)
Electorate:	63,700
Turnout:	67.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,049	39.9%	25.9%
LIB	13,096	30.7%	10.6%
LAB	11,624	27.2%	46.7%
Green	728	1.7%	10.4%
OTH	226	0.5%	0.2%
Reform	0	0.0%	6.2%
CON Majority	3,953	9.3%	20.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LIB

LAB

91%

Green

OTH

Reform

Clacton

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Giles Watling (CON)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	70,930
Turnout:	61.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,438	72.3%	43.6%
LAB	6,736	15.5%	30.4%
LIB	2,541	5.8%	9.7%
OTH	1,566	3.6%	0.6%
Green	1,225	2.8%	5.1%
Reform	0	0.0%	10.7%
CON Majority	24,702	56.8%	13.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

81%

LAB

19%

LIB

OTH

Green

Reform

Cleethorpes

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Martin Vickers (CON)
County/Area:	Humber area (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	73,689
Turnout:	62.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,969	69.0%	37.3%
LAB	10,551	22.8%	40.3%
LIB	2,535	5.5%	7.2%
Green	1,284	2.8%	4.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	10.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.6%
CON Majority	21,418	46.2%	3.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

43%

LAB

57%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Colchester

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Will Quince (CON)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	82,625
Turnout:	64.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,917	50.4%	27.4%
LAB	17,494	32.8%	43.3%
LIB	7,432	13.9%	16.3%
Green	1,530	2.9%	5.8%
Reform	0	0.0%	6.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	9,423	17.7%	15.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

15%

LAB

84%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Colne Valley

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Jason McCartney (CON)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	84,174
Turnout:	72.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,482	48.4%	25.8%
LAB	24,379	40.0%	54.2%
LIB	3,815	6.3%	5.9%
Reform	1,268	2.1%	8.8%
Green	1,068	1.8%	4.7%
OTH	880	1.4%	0.5%
CON Majority	5,103	8.4%	28.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

96%

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Congleton

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Fiona Bruce (CON)
County/Area:	Cheshire (North West)
Electorate:	80,930
Turnout:	70.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	33,747	59.0%	33.8%
LAB	15,186	26.5%	40.5%
LIB	6,026	10.5%	11.0%
Green	1,616	2.8%	4.9%
OTH	658	1.1%	0.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	9.2%
CON Majority	18,561	32.4%	6.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

33%

LAB

67%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Copeland

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Trudy Harrison (CON)
County/Area:	Cumbria (North West)
Electorate:	61,693
Turnout:	68.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,856	53.7%	28.4%
LAB	17,014	40.0%	53.3%
LIB	1,888	4.4%	5.4%
Green	765	1.8%	3.8%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.6%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.6%
CON Majority	5,842	13.7%	24.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

94%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Corby

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Tom Pursglove (CON)
County/Area:	Northamptonshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	86,153
Turnout:	70.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	33,410	55.2%	29.4%
LAB	23,142	38.3%	52.4%
LIB	3,923	6.5%	6.0%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.0%
Green	0	0.0%	3.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.6%
CON Majority	10,268	17.0%	23.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

92%

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Cornwall North

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Scott Mann (CON)
County/Area:	Cornwall (South West)
Electorate:	69,935
Turnout:	73.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,671	59.4%	35.5%
LIB	15,919	30.8%	33.5%
LAB	4,516	8.7%	20.0%
OTH	572	1.1%	0.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.8%
Green	0	0.0%	3.0%
CON Majority	14,752	28.5%	2.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

54%

LIB

41%

LAB

OTH

Reform

Green

Cornwall South East

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Sheryll Murray (CON)
County/Area:	Cornwall (South West)
Electorate:	71,825
Turnout:	74.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,807	59.3%	35.3%
LAB	10,836	20.2%	30.9%
LIB	8,650	16.1%	20.1%
Green	1,493	2.8%	4.5%
OTH	869	1.6%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.8%
CON Majority	20,971	39.1%	4.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

59%

LAB

36%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Cotswolds, The

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (CON)
County/Area:	Gloucestershire (South West)
Electorate:	81,939
Turnout:	74.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	35,484	58.0%	36.6%
LIB	15,270	25.0%	24.5%
LAB	7,110	11.6%	25.1%
Green	3,312	5.4%	5.7%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
CON Majority	20,214	33.0%	11.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

71%

LIB

13%

LAB

17%

Green

Reform

OTH

Coventry North East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Colleen Fletcher (LAB)
County/Area:	Coventry and Solihull (West Midlands)
Electorate:	76,006
Turnout:	58.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,412	52.7%	64.9%
CON	15,720	35.4%	18.5%
Reform	2,110	4.7%	6.8%
LIB	2,061	4.6%	3.9%
Green	1,141	2.6%	5.5%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
LAB Majority	7,692	17.3%	46.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Coventry North West

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Taiwo Owatemi (LAB)
County/Area:	Coventry and Solihull (West Midlands)
Electorate:	75,247
Turnout:	63.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,918	43.8%	57.0%
CON	20,710	43.4%	23.9%
LIB	2,717	5.7%	5.4%
Reform	1,956	4.1%	7.4%
Green	1,443	3.0%	5.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
LAB Majority	208	0.4%	33.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

98%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Coventry South

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Zarah Sultana (LAB)
County/Area:	Coventry and Solihull (West Midlands)
Electorate:	70,979
Turnout:	63.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,544	43.4%	57.1%
CON	19,143	42.5%	23.9%
LIB	3,398	7.5%	6.3%
Reform	1,432	3.2%	6.3%
Green	1,092	2.4%	5.9%
OTH	435	1.0%	0.5%
LAB Majority	401	0.9%	33.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

97%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Crawley

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Henry Smith (CON)
County/Area:	West Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	74,207
Turnout:	67.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,040	54.2%	30.0%
LAB	18,680	37.4%	52.6%
LIB	2,728	5.5%	4.8%
Green	1,451	2.9%	5.2%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	8,360	16.8%	22.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

92%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Crewe and Nantwich

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Kieran Mullan (CON)
County/Area:	Cheshire (North West)
Electorate:	80,321
Turnout:	67.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,704	53.1%	29.5%
LAB	20,196	37.4%	51.5%
LIB	2,618	4.8%	5.9%
Reform	1,390	2.6%	8.4%
Green	975	1.8%	4.1%
OTH	149	0.3%	0.7%
CON Majority	8,508	15.7%	22.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

92%

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Croydon Central

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Sarah Jones (LAB)
County/Area:	Croydon (London)
Electorate:	81,407
Turnout:	66.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	27,124	50.2%	60.4%
CON	21,175	39.2%	23.0%
LIB	3,532	6.5%	4.3%
Green	1,215	2.2%	5.5%
Reform	999	1.8%	6.4%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
LAB Majority	5,949	11.0%	37.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Croydon North

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Steve Reed (LAB)
County/Area:	Croydon (London)
Electorate:	88,468
Turnout:	62.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	36,495	65.6%	72.7%
CON	11,822	21.3%	12.5%
LIB	4,476	8.0%	3.0%
Green	1,629	2.9%	6.0%
Reform	839	1.5%	5.4%
OTH	348	0.6%	0.3%
LAB Majority	24,673	44.4%	60.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Croydon South

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Chris Philp (CON)
County/Area:	Croydon (London)
Electorate:	83,982
Turnout:	70.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,985	52.2%	33.1%
LAB	18,646	31.4%	44.4%
LIB	7,503	12.6%	8.8%
Green	1,782	3.0%	6.0%
OTH	442	0.7%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.4%
CON Majority	12,339	20.8%	11.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

22%

LAB

78%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Dagenham and Rainham

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Jon Cruddas (LAB)
County/Area:	Barking and Dagenham (London)
Electorate:	71,045
Turnout:	61.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,468	44.5%	56.0%
CON	19,175	43.8%	25.3%
Reform	2,887	6.6%	9.0%
LIB	1,182	2.7%	3.0%
Green	602	1.4%	6.3%
OTH	421	1.0%	0.4%
LAB Majority	293	0.7%	30.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

98%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Darlington

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Peter Gibson (CON)
County/Area:	Durham (North East)
Electorate:	66,397
Turnout:	65.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,901	48.1%	25.0%
LAB	17,607	40.5%	55.2%
LIB	2,097	4.8%	6.0%
Reform	1,544	3.5%	8.8%
Green	1,057	2.4%	4.4%
OTH	292	0.7%	0.7%
CON Majority	3,294	7.6%	30.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

97%

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Dartford

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Gareth Johnson (CON)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	82,209
Turnout:	65.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	34,006	62.9%	37.1%
LAB	14,846	27.5%	41.8%
LIB	3,736	6.9%	7.8%
Green	1,435	2.7%	5.1%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
CON Majority	19,160	35.5%	4.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

37%

LAB

63%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Daventry

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Chris Heaton-Harris (CON)
County/Area:	Northamptonshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	77,423
Turnout:	74.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	37,055	64.6%	37.0%
LAB	10,975	19.1%	35.7%
LIB	7,032	12.3%	11.1%
Green	2,341	4.1%	5.8%
Reform	0	0.0%	9.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
CON Majority	26,080	45.4%	1.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

52%

LAB

48%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Denton and Reddish

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Andrew Gwynne (LAB)
County/Area:	Eastern Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	66,234
Turnout:	58.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,317	50.1%	61.9%
CON	13,142	34.1%	17.6%
Reform	3,039	7.9%	9.6%
LIB	1,642	4.3%	4.5%
Green	1,124	2.9%	5.6%
OTH	324	0.8%	0.7%
LAB Majority	6,175	16.0%	44.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Derby North

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Amanda Solloway (CON)
County/Area:	Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	73,199
Turnout:	64.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,259	45.2%	23.6%
LAB	18,719	39.8%	55.7%
LIB	3,450	7.3%	6.4%
Reform	1,908	4.1%	8.3%
Green	1,046	2.2%	5.4%
OTH	635	1.4%	0.6%
CON Majority	2,540	5.4%	32.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

98%

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Derby South

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Margaret Beckett (LAB)
County/Area:	Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	73,062
Turnout:	58.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,690	51.1%	64.5%
CON	15,671	36.9%	18.2%
LIB	2,621	6.2%	3.9%
Reform	2,480	5.8%	8.2%
Green	0	0.0%	4.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
LAB Majority	6,019	14.2%	46.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Derbyshire Dales

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Sarah Dines (CON)
County/Area:	Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	65,080
Turnout:	76.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,356	58.7%	34.5%
LAB	11,975	23.9%	38.3%
LIB	6,627	13.2%	11.7%
Green	2,058	4.1%	5.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	9.6%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
CON Majority	17,381	34.8%	3.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

40%

LAB

60%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Derbyshire Mid

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Pauline Latham (CON)
County/Area:	Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	67,442
Turnout:	73.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,027	58.8%	33.1%
LAB	13,642	27.6%	43.0%
LIB	4,756	9.6%	8.9%
Green	1,931	3.9%	5.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	9.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.6%
CON Majority	15,385	31.2%	9.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

28%

LAB

72%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Derbyshire North East

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Lee Rowley (CON)
County/Area:	Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	72,345
Turnout:	68.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,897	58.7%	31.7%
LAB	16,021	32.6%	46.5%
LIB	3,021	6.1%	7.2%
Green	1,278	2.6%	4.6%
Reform	0	0.0%	9.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.6%
CON Majority	12,876	26.2%	14.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

17%

LAB

83%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Derbyshire South

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Heather Wheeler (CON)
County/Area:	Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	79,331
Turnout:	67.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	33,502	62.8%	33.4%
LAB	14,167	26.5%	44.2%
LIB	3,924	7.4%	7.5%
Green	1,788	3.3%	5.1%
Reform	0	0.0%	9.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.6%
CON Majority	19,335	36.2%	10.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

25%

LAB

75%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Devizes

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Danny Kruger (CON)
County/Area:	Wiltshire (South West)
Electorate:	73,372
Turnout:	69.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,150	63.1%	37.0%
LIB	8,157	16.0%	17.5%
LAB	7,838	15.4%	30.5%
Green	2,809	5.5%	6.1%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.5%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	23,993	47.1%	6.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

65%

LIB

LAB

33%

Green

Reform

OTH

Devon Central

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Mel Stride (CON)
County/Area:	Devon (South West)
Electorate:	74,926
Turnout:	77.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,095	55.3%	32.9%
LAB	14,374	24.8%	34.5%
LIB	8,770	15.1%	18.0%
Green	2,833	4.9%	5.9%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.5%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	17,721	30.5%	1.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

44%

LAB

52%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Devon East

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Simon Jupp (CON)
County/Area:	Devon (South West)
Electorate:	87,168
Turnout:	73.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,577	50.8%	37.4%
MIN	25,869	40.4%	0.0%
LAB	2,870	4.5%	33.2%
LIB	1,771	2.8%	8.1%
Green	711	1.1%	4.7%
OTH	275	0.4%	1.0%
Reform	0	0.0%	15.7%
CON Majority	6,708	10.5%	4.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

62%

MIN

LAB

37%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Devon North

Prediction: LIB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Selaine Saxby (CON)
County/Area:	Devon (South West)
Electorate:	75,859
Turnout:	73.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,479	56.6%	32.5%
LIB	16,666	30.0%	34.1%
LAB	5,097	9.2%	20.3%
Green	1,759	3.2%	4.4%
OTH	580	1.0%	0.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.4%
CON Majority	14,813	26.7%	1.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

43%

LIB

51%

LAB

Green

OTH

Reform

Devon South West

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Gary Streeter (CON)
County/Area:	Devon (South West)
Electorate:	72,535
Turnout:	73.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	33,286	62.4%	37.5%
LAB	11,856	22.2%	34.9%
LIB	6,207	11.6%	14.3%
Green	2,018	3.8%	5.0%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	21,430	40.2%	2.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

55%

LAB

44%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Devon West and Torridge

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Geoffrey Cox (CON)
County/Area:	Devon (South West)
Electorate:	80,403
Turnout:	74.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	35,904	60.1%	36.2%
LIB	10,912	18.3%	21.4%
LAB	10,290	17.2%	28.3%
Green	2,077	3.5%	4.9%
OTH	547	0.9%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	9.0%
CON Majority	24,992	41.8%	7.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

66%

LIB

LAB

26%

Green

OTH

Reform

Dewsbury

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Mark Eastwood (CON)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	81,253
Turnout:	69.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,179	46.4%	24.8%
LAB	24,618	43.7%	57.2%
LIB	2,406	4.3%	4.0%
Reform	1,874	3.3%	8.8%
Green	1,060	1.9%	4.8%
OTH	252	0.4%	0.5%
CON Majority	1,561	2.8%	32.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

98%

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Don Valley

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Nick Fletcher (CON)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	75,356
Turnout:	60.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,609	43.2%	24.4%
LAB	15,979	35.2%	51.8%
Reform	6,247	13.7%	12.5%
LIB	1,907	4.2%	5.6%
Green	872	1.9%	4.8%
OTH	823	1.8%	0.9%
CON Majority	3,630	8.0%	27.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

96%

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Doncaster Central

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Rosie Winterton (LAB)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	71,389
Turnout:	58.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,638	40.0%	56.0%
CON	14,360	34.5%	20.1%
Reform	6,842	16.5%	12.9%
LIB	1,748	4.2%	4.9%
OTH	1,012	2.4%	0.8%
Green	981	2.4%	5.4%
LAB Majority	2,278	5.5%	35.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

Reform

LIB

OTH

Green

Doncaster North

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Ed Miliband (LAB)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	72,362
Turnout:	56.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,740	38.7%	55.6%
CON	13,370	32.9%	19.7%
Reform	8,294	20.4%	13.8%
OTH	1,818	4.5%	1.0%
LIB	1,476	3.6%	5.3%
Green	0	0.0%	4.6%
LAB Majority	2,370	5.8%	35.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

Reform

OTH

LIB

Green

Dorset Mid and Poole North

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Michael Tomlinson (CON)
County/Area:	Dorset (South West)
Electorate:	65,427
Turnout:	74.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,548	60.4%	37.3%
LIB	14,650	29.9%	31.0%
LAB	3,402	7.0%	20.1%
Green	1,330	2.7%	4.0%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
CON Majority	14,898	30.4%	6.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

65%

LIB

30%

LAB

Green

Reform

OTH

Dorset North

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Simon Hoare (CON)
County/Area:	Dorset (South West)
Electorate:	76,765
Turnout:	73.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	35,705	63.6%	39.2%
LIB	11,404	20.3%	22.1%
LAB	6,737	12.0%	25.1%
Green	2,261	4.0%	4.9%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.4%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
CON Majority	24,301	43.3%	14.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

79%

LIB

LAB

14%

Green

Reform

OTH

Dorset South

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Richard Drax (CON)
County/Area:	Dorset (South West)
Electorate:	73,809
Turnout:	69.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,024	58.8%	34.6%
LAB	12,871	25.2%	38.6%
LIB	5,432	10.6%	12.3%
Green	2,246	4.4%	5.3%
OTH	485	0.9%	0.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.8%
CON Majority	17,153	33.6%	4.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

40%

LAB

60%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Dorset West

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Chris Loder (CON)
County/Area:	Dorset (South West)
Electorate:	81,897
Turnout:	74.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	33,589	55.1%	34.1%
LIB	19,483	32.0%	31.3%
LAB	5,729	9.4%	22.2%
Green	2,124	3.5%	4.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
CON Majority	14,106	23.2%	2.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

54%

LIB

36%

LAB

Green

Reform

OTH

Dover

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Natalie Elphicke (CON)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	76,355
Turnout:	66.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,830	56.9%	33.6%
LAB	16,552	32.6%	44.8%
LIB	2,895	5.7%	8.2%
Green	1,371	2.7%	4.7%
OTH	1,053	2.1%	0.6%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.1%
CON Majority	12,278	24.2%	11.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

22%

LAB

78%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Dudley North

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Marco Longhi (CON)
County/Area:	Black Country (West Midlands)
Electorate:	61,936
Turnout:	59.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,134	63.1%	34.1%
LAB	11,601	31.6%	47.5%
LIB	1,210	3.3%	5.4%
Green	739	2.0%	4.6%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.0%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
CON Majority	11,533	31.4%	13.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

20%

LAB

80%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Dudley South

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Mike Wood (CON)
County/Area:	Black Country (West Midlands)
Electorate:	60,731
Turnout:	60.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,835	67.9%	38.7%
LAB	9,270	25.3%	41.1%
LIB	1,608	4.4%	7.2%
Green	863	2.4%	4.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.0%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
CON Majority	15,565	42.6%	2.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

44%

LAB

56%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Dulwich and West Norwood

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Helen Hayes (LAB)
County/Area:	Lambeth (London)
Electorate:	80,331
Turnout:	69.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	36,521	65.5%	64.8%
Green	9,211	16.5%	15.4%
CON	9,160	16.4%	10.2%
Reform	571	1.0%	5.3%
OTH	315	0.6%	0.3%
LIB	0	0.0%	4.0%
LAB Majority	27,310	49.0%	49.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

Green

CON

Reform

OTH

LIB

Durham North

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Kevan Jones (LAB)
County/Area:	Durham (North East)
Electorate:	66,796
Turnout:	63.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,639	44.2%	58.4%
CON	13,897	32.9%	18.4%
Reform	4,693	11.1%	10.5%
LIB	2,879	6.8%	6.9%
Green	1,126	2.7%	4.9%
OTH	961	2.3%	0.9%
LAB Majority	4,742	11.2%	39.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Durham North West

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Richard Holden (CON)
County/Area:	Durham (North East)
Electorate:	72,166
Turnout:	66.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,990	41.9%	22.4%
LAB	18,846	39.5%	54.0%
Reform	3,193	6.7%	10.9%
LIB	2,831	5.9%	7.3%
OTH	1,630	3.4%	0.8%
Green	1,173	2.5%	4.7%
CON Majority	1,144	2.4%	31.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

98%

Reform

LIB

OTH

Green

Durham, City of

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Mary Foy (LAB)
County/Area:	Durham (North East)
Electorate:	71,271
Turnout:	68.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,531	42.0%	56.1%
CON	15,506	31.7%	17.3%
LIB	7,935	16.2%	11.4%
Reform	3,252	6.7%	8.2%
Green	1,635	3.3%	6.4%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.6%
LAB Majority	5,025	10.3%	38.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Ealing Central and Acton

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Rupa Huq (LAB)
County/Area:	Ealing (London)
Electorate:	75,510
Turnout:	72.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	28,132	51.3%	62.0%
CON	14,832	27.1%	17.5%
LIB	9,444	17.2%	6.5%
Green	1,735	3.2%	8.0%
Reform	664	1.2%	5.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.2%
LAB Majority	13,300	24.3%	44.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Ealing North

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	James Murray (LAB)
County/Area:	Ealing (London)
Electorate:	74,473
Turnout:	66.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	28,036	56.5%	67.3%
CON	15,767	31.8%	17.6%
LIB	4,370	8.8%	2.5%
Green	1,458	2.9%	6.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	5.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.2%
LAB Majority	12,269	24.7%	49.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Ealing Southall

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Virendra Sharma (LAB)
County/Area:	Ealing (London)
Electorate:	64,581
Turnout:	65.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	25,678	60.8%	69.5%
CON	9,594	22.7%	13.3%
LIB	3,933	9.3%	3.3%
Green	1,688	4.0%	7.7%
Reform	867	2.1%	5.9%
OTH	457	1.1%	0.3%
LAB Majority	16,084	38.1%	56.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Easington

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Grahame Morris (LAB)
County/Area:	Durham (North East)
Electorate:	61,182
Turnout:	56.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,723	45.5%	61.5%
CON	9,142	26.4%	15.7%
Reform	6,744	19.5%	12.4%
LIB	1,526	4.4%	5.1%
OTH	1,448	4.2%	1.0%
Green	0	0.0%	4.1%
LAB Majority	6,581	19.0%	45.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Reform

LIB

OTH

Green

East Ham

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Stephen Timms (LAB)
County/Area:	Newham (London)
Electorate:	88,319
Turnout:	61.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	41,703	76.3%	80.9%
CON	8,527	15.6%	8.1%
LIB	2,158	4.0%	0.6%
Reform	1,107	2.0%	4.4%
Green	883	1.6%	5.9%
OTH	250	0.5%	0.1%
LAB Majority	33,176	60.7%	72.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Eastbourne

Prediction: LIB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Caroline Ansell (CON)
County/Area:	East Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	79,307
Turnout:	69.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,951	48.9%	30.0%
LIB	22,620	41.0%	40.4%
LAB	3,848	7.0%	19.0%
Reform	1,530	2.8%	7.3%
OTH	185	0.3%	0.2%
Green	0	0.0%	3.1%
CON Majority	4,331	7.9%	10.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

25%

LIB

72%

LAB

Reform

OTH

Green

Eastleigh

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Paul Holmes (CON)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	83,880
Turnout:	70.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,690	55.4%	32.1%
LIB	17,083	29.0%	30.0%
LAB	7,559	12.8%	25.7%
Green	1,639	2.8%	4.6%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
CON Majority	15,607	26.5%	2.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

46%

LIB

35%

LAB

19%

Green

Reform

OTH

Eddisbury

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Edward Timpson (CON)
County/Area:	Cheshire (North West)
Electorate:	73,700
Turnout:	71.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,095	56.8%	33.4%
LAB	11,652	22.0%	39.8%
LIB	9,582	18.1%	13.0%
Green	1,191	2.2%	4.6%
OTH	451	0.9%	0.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.7%
CON Majority	18,443	34.8%	6.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

33%

LAB

67%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Edmonton

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Kate Osamor (LAB)
County/Area:	Enfield (London)
Electorate:	65,747
Turnout:	61.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	26,217	65.0%	72.7%
CON	10,202	25.3%	14.5%
LIB	2,145	5.3%	1.6%
Green	862	2.1%	5.8%
Reform	840	2.1%	5.3%
OTH	75	0.2%	0.2%
LAB Majority	16,015	39.7%	58.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Ellesmere Port and Neston

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Justin Madders (LAB)
County/Area:	Cheshire (North West)
Electorate:	70,327
Turnout:	69.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	26,001	53.3%	61.7%
CON	17,237	35.4%	20.4%
LIB	2,406	4.9%	5.1%
Reform	2,138	4.4%	7.7%
Green	964	2.0%	4.5%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.6%
LAB Majority	8,764	18.0%	41.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Elmet and Rothwell

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Alec Shelbrooke (CON)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	80,957
Turnout:	71.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	33,726	57.9%	33.5%
LAB	16,373	28.1%	44.5%
LIB	5,155	8.9%	7.7%
Green	1,775	3.0%	4.7%
OTH	1,196	2.1%	0.6%
Reform	0	0.0%	9.0%
CON Majority	17,353	29.8%	11.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

24%

LAB

75%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Eltham

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Clive Efford (LAB)
County/Area:	Greenwich (London)
Electorate:	64,086
Turnout:	68.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,550	47.0%	57.9%
CON	17,353	39.7%	23.3%
LIB	2,941	6.7%	5.1%
Reform	1,523	3.5%	7.3%
Green	1,322	3.0%	6.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
LAB Majority	3,197	7.3%	34.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

98%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Enfield North

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Feryal Clark (LAB)
County/Area:	Enfield (London)
Electorate:	68,301
Turnout:	66.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,340	51.8%	62.4%
CON	16,848	37.4%	21.9%
LIB	2,950	6.5%	3.5%
Green	1,115	2.5%	5.7%
Reform	797	1.8%	6.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
LAB Majority	6,492	14.4%	40.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Enfield Southgate

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Bambos Charalambous (LAB)
County/Area:	Enfield (London)
Electorate:	65,525
Turnout:	72.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,923	48.5%	57.8%
CON	18,473	39.1%	25.2%
LIB	4,344	9.2%	4.6%
Green	1,042	2.2%	6.0%
Reform	494	1.0%	6.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
LAB Majority	4,450	9.4%	32.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

98%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Epping Forest

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Eleanor Laing (CON)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	74,304
Turnout:	67.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,364	64.4%	39.7%
LAB	10,191	20.3%	34.1%
LIB	5,387	10.7%	10.8%
Green	1,975	3.9%	6.5%
OTH	351	0.7%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.5%
CON Majority	22,173	44.1%	5.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

63%

LAB

37%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Epsom and Ewell

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Chris Grayling (CON)
County/Area:	Surrey (South East)
Electorate:	81,138
Turnout:	73.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,819	53.5%	35.6%
LIB	13,946	23.5%	18.3%
LAB	10,226	17.2%	32.4%
Green	2,047	3.4%	5.9%
OTH	1,413	2.4%	0.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.5%
CON Majority	17,873	30.1%	3.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

56%

LIB

LAB

41%

Green

OTH

Reform

Erewash

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Maggie Throup (CON)
County/Area:	Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	72,523
Turnout:	67.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,560	56.5%	28.3%
LAB	16,954	34.7%	51.3%
LIB	2,487	5.1%	6.0%
Green	1,115	2.3%	4.5%
OTH	698	1.4%	0.7%
Reform	0	0.0%	9.2%
CON Majority	10,606	21.7%	23.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

93%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Erith and Thamesmead

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Abena Oppong-Asare (LAB)
County/Area:	Bexley (London)
Electorate:	65,399
Turnout:	63.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,882	48.0%	60.6%
CON	16,124	39.0%	21.8%
Reform	2,246	5.4%	7.4%
LIB	1,984	4.8%	4.2%
Green	876	2.1%	5.6%
OTH	272	0.7%	0.5%
LAB Majority	3,758	9.1%	38.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Esher and Walton

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Dominic Raab (CON)
County/Area:	Surrey (South East)
Electorate:	81,184
Turnout:	77.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,132	49.4%	34.1%
LIB	28,389	45.0%	31.7%
LAB	2,838	4.5%	23.0%
OTH	725	1.1%	0.2%
Reform	0	0.0%	6.4%
Green	0	0.0%	4.5%
CON Majority	2,743	4.3%	2.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

54%

LIB

36%

LAB

10%

OTH

Reform

Green

Exeter

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Ben Bradshaw (LAB)
County/Area:	Devon (South West)
Electorate:	82,054
Turnout:	68.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	29,882	53.2%	61.0%
CON	19,479	34.7%	18.3%
Green	4,838	8.6%	8.7%
Reform	1,428	2.5%	6.5%
OTH	565	1.0%	0.6%
LIB	0	0.0%	4.8%
LAB Majority	10,403	18.5%	42.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Green

Reform

OTH

LIB