Constituency List: England A-B

Aldershot

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Leo Docherty (CON)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	72,617
Turnout:	66.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,980	58.4%	33.2%
LAB	11,282	23.5%	37.3%
LIB	6,920	14.4%	15.4%
Green	1,750	3.7%	5.8%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	16,698	34.8%	4.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

38%

LAB

61%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Aldridge-Brownhills

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Wendy Morton (CON)
County/Area:	Black Country (West Midlands)
Electorate:	60,138
Turnout:	65.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,850	70.8%	43.1%
LAB	8,014	20.4%	35.9%
LIB	2,371	6.0%	8.4%
Green	771	2.0%	3.9%
OTH	336	0.9%	0.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.2%
CON Majority	19,836	50.4%	7.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

68%

LAB

32%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Altrincham and Sale West

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Graham Brady (CON)
County/Area:	Central Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	73,107
Turnout:	74.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,311	48.0%	29.0%
LAB	20,172	36.8%	49.1%
LIB	6,036	11.0%	7.6%
Green	1,566	2.9%	6.0%
OTH	678	1.2%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.8%
CON Majority	6,139	11.2%	20.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

91%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Amber Valley

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Nigel Mills (CON)
County/Area:	Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	69,976
Turnout:	65.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,096	63.9%	32.4%
LAB	12,210	26.8%	45.9%
LIB	2,873	6.3%	6.6%
Green	1,388	3.0%	4.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	9.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.7%
CON Majority	16,886	37.1%	13.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

20%

LAB

80%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Arundel and South Downs

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Andrew Griffith (CON)
County/Area:	West Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	81,726
Turnout:	75.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	35,566	57.9%	37.5%
LIB	13,045	21.2%	20.2%
LAB	9,722	15.8%	28.2%
Green	2,519	4.1%	5.7%
OTH	556	0.9%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.0%
CON Majority	22,521	36.7%	9.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

70%

LIB

LAB

25%

Green

OTH

Reform

Ashfield

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Lee Anderson (CON)
County/Area:	Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	78,204
Turnout:	62.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,231	39.3%	17.4%
MIN	13,498	27.6%	27.6%
LAB	11,971	24.4%	34.1%
Reform	2,501	5.1%	11.9%
LIB	1,105	2.3%	4.6%
Green	674	1.4%	3.4%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.0%
CON Majority	5,733	11.7%	6.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

17%

MIN

11%

LAB

65%

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Ashford

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Damian Green (CON)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	89,553
Turnout:	67.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	37,270	62.1%	37.1%
LAB	13,241	22.0%	36.1%
LIB	6,048	10.1%	12.0%
Green	2,638	4.4%	5.7%
OTH	862	1.4%	0.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.5%
CON Majority	24,029	40.0%	1.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

52%

LAB

47%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Ashton under Lyne

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Angela Rayner (LAB)
County/Area:	Eastern Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	67,978
Turnout:	56.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,544	48.1%	61.3%
CON	14,281	37.0%	18.5%
Reform	3,151	8.2%	10.0%
LIB	1,395	3.6%	3.7%
Green	1,208	3.1%	5.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.6%
LAB Majority	4,263	11.1%	42.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Aylesbury

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Rob Butler (CON)
County/Area:	Buckinghamshire (South East)
Electorate:	86,665
Turnout:	69.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,737	54.0%	33.5%
LAB	15,364	25.4%	38.2%
LIB	10,081	16.6%	13.0%
Green	2,394	4.0%	6.8%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
CON Majority	17,373	28.7%	4.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

39%

LAB

61%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Banbury

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Victoria Prentis (CON)
County/Area:	Oxfordshire (South East)
Electorate:	90,116
Turnout:	69.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	34,148	54.3%	32.2%
LAB	17,335	27.6%	41.5%
LIB	8,831	14.0%	12.5%
Green	2,607	4.1%	5.8%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.6%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	16,813	26.7%	9.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

27%

LAB

72%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Barking

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Margaret Hodge (LAB)
County/Area:	Barking and Dagenham (London)
Electorate:	77,953
Turnout:	57.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	27,219	61.2%	70.3%
CON	11,792	26.5%	14.3%
Reform	3,186	7.2%	7.2%
LIB	1,482	3.3%	1.2%
Green	820	1.8%	6.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.2%
LAB Majority	15,427	34.7%	56.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Barnsley Central

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Dan Jarvis (LAB)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	65,277
Turnout:	56.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,804	40.1%	55.6%
Reform	11,233	30.4%	16.3%
CON	7,892	21.4%	15.2%
LIB	1,176	3.2%	5.6%
Green	900	2.4%	6.3%
OTH	898	2.4%	1.1%
LAB Majority	3,571	9.7%	39.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

Reform

CON

LIB

Green

OTH

Barnsley East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Stephanie Peacock (LAB)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	69,504
Turnout:	54.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,329	37.6%	54.3%
Reform	11,112	29.2%	16.0%
CON	10,377	27.3%	17.1%
LIB	1,330	3.5%	5.7%
Green	922	2.4%	5.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.0%
LAB Majority	3,217	8.5%	37.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

Reform

CON

LIB

Green

OTH

Barrow and Furness

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Simon Fell (CON)
County/Area:	Cumbria (North West)
Electorate:	70,158
Turnout:	65.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,876	51.9%	27.1%
LAB	18,087	39.3%	54.0%
LIB	2,025	4.4%	5.6%
Reform	1,355	2.9%	8.7%
Green	703	1.5%	3.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.7%
CON Majority	5,789	12.6%	26.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

95%

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Basildon and Billericay

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	John Baron (CON)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	69,906
Turnout:	63.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,590	67.1%	40.3%
LAB	9,178	20.8%	36.9%
LIB	3,741	8.5%	9.4%
Green	1,395	3.2%	5.1%
OTH	224	0.5%	0.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.8%
CON Majority	20,412	46.3%	3.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

59%

LAB

41%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Basildon South and East Thurrock

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Stephen Metcalfe (CON)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	74,441
Turnout:	60.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,973	66.2%	39.2%
LAB	10,051	22.2%	39.4%
MIN	3,316	7.3%	0.0%
LIB	1,957	4.3%	7.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	9.0%
Green	0	0.0%	4.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.7%
CON Majority	19,922	44.0%	0.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

51%

LAB

49%

MIN

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Basingstoke

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Maria Miller (CON)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	82,928
Turnout:	66.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,593	54.1%	31.6%
LAB	15,395	28.1%	42.8%
LIB	6,841	12.5%	12.3%
Green	2,138	3.9%	5.5%
OTH	746	1.4%	0.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.4%
CON Majority	14,198	25.9%	11.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

24%

LAB

76%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Bassetlaw

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Brendan Clarke-Smith (CON)
County/Area:	Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	80,024
Turnout:	63.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,078	55.2%	30.5%
LAB	14,065	27.7%	47.2%
Reform	5,366	10.6%	11.4%
LIB	3,332	6.6%	6.4%
Green	0	0.0%	3.6%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.9%
CON Majority	14,013	27.6%	16.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

15%

LAB

85%

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Bath

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2019:	Wera Hobhouse (LIB)
County/Area:	Bristol area (South West)
Electorate:	67,805
Turnout:	76.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	28,419	54.5%	48.6%
CON	16,097	30.9%	18.1%
LAB	6,639	12.7%	23.1%
Reform	642	1.2%	4.9%
OTH	341	0.7%	0.2%
Green	0	0.0%	5.0%
LIB Majority	12,322	23.6%	25.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

95%

CON

LAB

Reform

OTH

Green

Batley and Spen

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Tracy Brabin (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	79,558
Turnout:	66.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,594	42.7%	47.4%
CON	19,069	36.0%	28.2%
MIN	6,432	12.2%	11.0%
LIB	2,462	4.7%	3.3%
Reform	1,678	3.2%	6.6%
Green	692	1.3%	2.4%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.1%
LAB Majority	3,525	6.7%	19.1% Pred Maj

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Result shown is the original general election result. Ms Brabin resigned the seat in May 2021 following her election as Mayor of West Yorkshire. Kim Leadbeater (Lab) won the seat in a by-election on 1 July 2021.

Chance of winning

LAB

87%

CON

13%

MIN

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Battersea

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Marsha De Cordova (LAB)
County/Area:	Wandsworth (London)
Electorate:	79,350
Turnout:	75.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	27,290	45.5%	58.4%
CON	21,622	36.1%	21.0%
LIB	9,150	15.3%	7.2%
Green	1,529	2.5%	7.3%
Reform	386	0.6%	5.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
LAB Majority	5,668	9.5%	37.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Beaconsfield

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Joy Morrissey (CON)
County/Area:	Buckinghamshire (South East)
Electorate:	77,720
Turnout:	74.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,477	56.1%	40.8%
MIN	16,765	29.0%	0.0%
LAB	5,756	9.9%	20.7%
Green	2,033	3.5%	4.6%
OTH	837	1.4%	0.6%
LIB	0	0.0%	25.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.0%
CON Majority	15,712	27.2%	15.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

81%

MIN

LAB

Green

OTH

LIB

12%

Reform

Beckenham

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Bob Stewart (CON)
County/Area:	Bromley (London)
Electorate:	68,662
Turnout:	73.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,282	54.0%	34.6%
LAB	13,024	25.8%	38.3%
LIB	8,194	16.2%	12.8%
Green	2,055	4.1%	6.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.6%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	14,258	28.2%	3.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

40%

LAB

59%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Bedford

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Mohammad Yasin (LAB)
County/Area:	Bedfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	71,581
Turnout:	66.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,491	43.3%	56.0%
CON	20,346	43.0%	24.4%
LIB	4,608	9.7%	7.4%
Green	960	2.0%	5.1%
Reform	896	1.9%	6.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
LAB Majority	145	0.3%	31.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

98%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Bedfordshire Mid

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Nadine Dorries (CON)
County/Area:	Bedfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	87,795
Turnout:	73.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	38,692	59.8%	34.6%
LAB	14,028	21.7%	34.5%
LIB	8,171	12.6%	17.6%
Green	2,478	3.8%	3.5%
OTH	1,348	2.1%	0.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	2.3%
CON Majority	24,664	38.1%	0.0% Pred Maj

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Result shown is the original general election result, before the resignation of Nadine Dorries in August 2023. Alistair Strathern (Labour) won the seat in a by-election on 19 October 2023.

Chance of winning

CON

50%

LAB

48%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

MIN

Bedfordshire North East

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Richard Fuller (CON)
County/Area:	Bedfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	90,678
Turnout:	71.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	38,443	59.1%	36.3%
LAB	14,160	21.8%	37.1%
LIB	7,999	12.3%	12.9%
MIN	2,525	3.9%	0.0%
Green	1,891	2.9%	5.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
CON Majority	24,283	37.3%	0.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

48%

LAB

52%

LIB

MIN

Green

Reform

OTH

Bedfordshire South West

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Andrew Selous (CON)
County/Area:	Bedfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	79,926
Turnout:	66.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,212	60.4%	35.0%
LAB	13,629	25.6%	40.6%
LIB	5,435	10.2%	10.6%
Green	2,031	3.8%	5.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
CON Majority	18,583	34.9%	5.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

34%

LAB

66%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Bermondsey and Old Southwark

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Neil Coyle (LAB)
County/Area:	Southwark (London)
Electorate:	93,248
Turnout:	62.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	31,723	54.1%	60.4%
LIB	15,597	26.6%	14.7%
CON	9,678	16.5%	11.6%
Reform	1,617	2.8%	5.7%
Green	0	0.0%	7.4%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.2%
LAB Majority	16,126	27.5%	45.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

LIB

CON

Reform

Green

OTH

Berwick-upon-Tweed

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Anne-Marie Trevelyan (CON)
County/Area:	Northumberland (North East)
Electorate:	59,939
Turnout:	70.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,947	56.9%	31.8%
LAB	9,112	21.6%	34.1%
LIB	7,656	18.2%	19.1%
Green	1,394	3.3%	4.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	10.0%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	14,835	35.2%	2.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

42%

LAB

55%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Bethnal Green and Bow

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Rushanara Ali (LAB)
County/Area:	Tower Hamlets (London)
Electorate:	88,262
Turnout:	68.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	44,052	72.7%	77.6%
CON	6,528	10.8%	6.3%
LIB	5,892	9.7%	0.7%
Green	2,570	4.2%	11.0%
Reform	1,081	1.8%	4.4%
OTH	439	0.7%	0.1%
LAB Majority	37,524	62.0%	66.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Beverley and Holderness

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Graham Stuart (CON)
County/Area:	Humber area (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	79,696
Turnout:	67.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	33,250	62.1%	35.0%
LAB	12,802	23.9%	40.3%
LIB	4,671	8.7%	9.0%
OTH	1,441	2.7%	0.7%
Green	1,378	2.6%	4.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	10.5%
CON Majority	20,448	38.2%	5.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

36%

LAB

64%

LIB

OTH

Green

Reform

Bexhill and Battle

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Huw Merriman (CON)
County/Area:	East Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	81,963
Turnout:	72.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	37,590	63.6%	39.6%
LAB	11,531	19.5%	31.7%
LIB	7,280	12.3%	14.4%
Green	2,692	4.6%	5.2%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	26,059	44.1%	7.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

69%

LAB

30%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Bexleyheath and Crayford

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	David Evennett (CON)
County/Area:	Bexley (London)
Electorate:	65,466
Turnout:	66.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	25,856	59.8%	35.9%
LAB	12,753	29.5%	43.0%
LIB	2,819	6.5%	6.8%
Green	1,298	3.0%	5.6%
OTH	520	1.2%	0.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.3%
CON Majority	13,103	30.3%	7.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

31%

LAB

69%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Birkenhead

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Mick Whitley (LAB)
County/Area:	Merseyside (North West)
Electorate:	63,762
Turnout:	66.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	24,990	59.0%	71.5%
MIN	7,285	17.2%	0.0%
CON	5,540	13.1%	10.0%
LIB	1,620	3.8%	3.9%
Reform	1,489	3.5%	8.7%
Green	1,405	3.3%	4.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.2%
LAB Majority	17,705	41.8%	61.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

MIN

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Birmingham Edgbaston

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Preet Gill (LAB)
County/Area:	Birmingham (West Midlands)
Electorate:	68,828
Turnout:	61.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,217	50.1%	63.8%
CON	15,603	36.9%	20.0%
LIB	3,349	7.9%	4.1%
Green	1,112	2.6%	5.9%
Reform	1,047	2.5%	5.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
LAB Majority	5,614	13.3%	43.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Birmingham Erdington

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Jack Dromey (LAB)
County/Area:	Birmingham (West Midlands)
Electorate:	66,148
Turnout:	53.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,720	50.3%	59.5%
CON	14,119	40.1%	29.0%
Reform	1,441	4.1%	5.1%
LIB	1,301	3.7%	1.9%
Green	648	1.8%	2.9%
MIN	0	0.0%	1.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
LAB Majority	3,601	10.2%	30.6% Pred Maj

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Result shown is the original general election result, before the death of Mr Jack Dromey in January 2022. Paulette Hamilton (Labour) won the seat in a by-election on 3 March 2022.

Chance of winning

LAB

97%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

MIN

OTH

Birmingham Hall Green

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Tahir Ali (LAB)
County/Area:	Birmingham (West Midlands)
Electorate:	80,283
Turnout:	65.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	35,889	67.8%	77.2%
CON	7,381	13.9%	9.5%
MIN	4,273	8.1%	0.0%
LIB	3,673	6.9%	1.0%
Reform	877	1.7%	5.4%
Green	818	1.5%	6.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.1%
LAB Majority	28,508	53.9%	67.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

MIN

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Birmingham Hodge Hill

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Liam Byrne (LAB)
County/Area:	Birmingham (West Midlands)
Electorate:	78,295
Turnout:	57.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	35,397	78.7%	81.5%
CON	6,742	15.0%	7.7%
Reform	1,519	3.4%	4.5%
LIB	760	1.7%	0.7%
Green	328	0.7%	5.5%
OTH	257	0.6%	0.1%
LAB Majority	28,655	63.7%	73.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Birmingham Ladywood

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Shabana Mahmood (LAB)
County/Area:	Birmingham (West Midlands)
Electorate:	74,912
Turnout:	56.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	33,355	79.2%	83.3%
CON	4,773	11.3%	6.0%
LIB	2,228	5.3%	0.9%
Green	931	2.2%	6.1%
Reform	831	2.0%	3.5%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.1%
LAB Majority	28,582	67.9%	77.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Birmingham Northfield

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Gary Sambrook (CON)
County/Area:	Birmingham (West Midlands)
Electorate:	73,694
Turnout:	58.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,957	46.3%	24.3%
LAB	18,317	42.5%	57.5%
LIB	1,961	4.6%	5.1%
Reform	1,655	3.8%	7.5%
Green	954	2.2%	5.0%
OTH	254	0.6%	0.6%
CON Majority	1,640	3.8%	33.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

98%

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Birmingham Perry Barr

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Khalid Mahmood (LAB)
County/Area:	Birmingham (West Midlands)
Electorate:	72,006
Turnout:	58.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	26,594	63.1%	72.4%
CON	11,277	26.8%	14.0%
LIB	1,901	4.5%	2.3%
Reform	1,382	3.3%	5.5%
Green	845	2.0%	5.6%
OTH	148	0.4%	0.3%
LAB Majority	15,317	36.3%	58.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Birmingham Selly Oak

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Steve McCabe (LAB)
County/Area:	Birmingham (West Midlands)
Electorate:	82,665
Turnout:	59.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	27,714	56.0%	66.7%
CON	15,300	30.9%	16.2%
LIB	3,169	6.4%	4.0%
Green	1,848	3.7%	6.8%
Reform	1,436	2.9%	6.0%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
LAB Majority	12,414	25.1%	50.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Birmingham Yardley

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Jess Phillips (LAB)
County/Area:	Birmingham (West Midlands)
Electorate:	74,704
Turnout:	57.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,379	54.8%	65.8%
CON	12,720	29.8%	16.8%
LIB	3,754	8.8%	3.6%
Reform	2,246	5.3%	7.2%
Green	579	1.4%	6.5%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.2%
LAB Majority	10,659	25.0%	49.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Bishop Auckland

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Dehenna Davison (CON)
County/Area:	Durham (North East)
Electorate:	68,170
Turnout:	65.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,067	53.7%	28.1%
LAB	16,105	35.9%	51.8%
Reform	2,500	5.6%	10.1%
LIB	2,133	4.8%	6.0%
Green	0	0.0%	3.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.7%
CON Majority	7,962	17.8%	23.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

93%

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Blackburn

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Kate Hollern (LAB)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	71,234
Turnout:	62.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	29,040	64.9%	73.4%
CON	10,736	24.0%	13.0%
Reform	2,770	6.2%	6.7%
LIB	1,130	2.5%	1.6%
Green	741	1.7%	4.9%
OTH	319	0.7%	0.3%
LAB Majority	18,304	40.9%	60.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Blackley and Broughton

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Graham Stringer (LAB)
County/Area:	Central Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	73,372
Turnout:	52.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,887	61.9%	72.7%
CON	9,485	24.6%	11.6%
Reform	2,736	7.1%	7.3%
LIB	1,590	4.1%	2.0%
Green	920	2.4%	5.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
LAB Majority	14,402	37.3%	61.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Blackpool North and Cleveleys

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Paul Maynard (CON)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	63,692
Turnout:	60.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,364	57.6%	29.9%
LAB	13,768	35.5%	51.0%
LIB	1,494	3.9%	5.4%
Green	735	1.9%	3.8%
OTH	443	1.1%	0.7%
Reform	0	0.0%	9.1%
CON Majority	8,596	22.2%	21.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

10%

LAB

90%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Blackpool South

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Scott Benton (CON)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	57,690
Turnout:	56.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,247	49.6%	24.9%
LAB	12,557	38.3%	55.1%
Reform	2,009	6.1%	10.2%
LIB	1,008	3.1%	4.8%
Green	563	1.7%	4.2%
OTH	368	1.1%	0.9%
CON Majority	3,690	11.3%	30.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

97%

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Blaydon

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Liz Twist (LAB)
County/Area:	Newcastle area (North East)
Electorate:	67,853
Turnout:	67.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,794	43.3%	54.9%
CON	14,263	31.2%	18.5%
Reform	5,833	12.8%	11.7%
LIB	3,703	8.1%	8.6%
Green	1,279	2.8%	5.5%
OTH	809	1.8%	0.7%
LAB Majority	5,531	12.1%	36.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Blyth Valley

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Ian Levy (CON)
County/Area:	Northumberland (North East)
Electorate:	64,429
Turnout:	63.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,440	42.7%	22.1%
LAB	16,728	40.9%	54.4%
Reform	3,394	8.3%	10.7%
LIB	2,151	5.3%	6.9%
Green	1,146	2.8%	5.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.7%
CON Majority	712	1.7%	32.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

98%

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Bognor Regis and Littlehampton

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Nick Gibb (CON)
County/Area:	West Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	77,446
Turnout:	66.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,521	63.5%	38.9%
LAB	10,018	19.6%	33.4%
LIB	5,645	11.0%	13.0%
Green	1,826	3.6%	5.1%
OTH	1,213	2.4%	0.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	9.2%
CON Majority	22,503	43.9%	5.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

61%

LAB

38%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Bolsover

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Mark Fletcher (CON)
County/Area:	Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	74,292
Turnout:	61.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,791	47.4%	25.0%
LAB	16,492	35.9%	52.6%
Reform	4,151	9.0%	11.3%
LIB	1,759	3.8%	5.7%
OTH	987	2.1%	0.9%
Green	758	1.7%	4.5%
CON Majority	5,299	11.5%	27.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

96%

Reform

LIB

OTH

Green

Bolton North East

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Mark Logan (CON)
County/Area:	Western Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	67,564
Turnout:	64.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,759	45.4%	24.4%
LAB	19,381	44.5%	57.9%
Reform	1,880	4.3%	8.5%
LIB	1,847	4.2%	4.0%
Green	689	1.6%	4.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
CON Majority	378	0.9%	33.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

98%

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Bolton South East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Yasmin Qureshi (LAB)
County/Area:	Western Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	69,163
Turnout:	58.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,516	53.0%	65.1%
CON	13,918	34.3%	16.8%
Reform	2,968	7.3%	9.1%
LIB	1,411	3.5%	2.8%
Green	791	1.9%	5.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
LAB Majority	7,598	18.7%	48.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Bolton West

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Chris Green (CON)
County/Area:	Western Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	73,191
Turnout:	67.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,255	55.3%	29.6%
LAB	18,400	37.3%	52.3%
LIB	2,704	5.5%	5.0%
Green	939	1.9%	4.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
CON Majority	8,855	18.0%	22.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

92%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Bootle

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Peter Dowd (LAB)
County/Area:	Merseyside (North West)
Electorate:	74,832
Turnout:	65.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	39,066	79.4%	79.3%
CON	4,510	9.2%	6.9%
Reform	2,610	5.3%	5.7%
LIB	1,822	3.7%	3.2%
Green	1,166	2.4%	4.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.6%
LAB Majority	34,556	70.3%	72.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Boston and Skegness

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Matt Warman (CON)
County/Area:	Lincolnshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	69,381
Turnout:	60.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,963	76.7%	42.6%
LAB	6,342	15.2%	33.2%
LIB	1,963	4.7%	7.3%
OTH	1,428	3.4%	0.7%
Reform	0	0.0%	12.4%
Green	0	0.0%	3.8%
CON Majority	25,621	61.4%	9.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

72%

LAB

27%

LIB

OTH

Reform

Green

Bosworth

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Luke Evans (CON)
County/Area:	Leicestershire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	81,542
Turnout:	69.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	36,056	63.9%	36.1%
LAB	9,778	17.3%	33.4%
LIB	9,096	16.1%	15.8%
Green	1,502	2.7%	4.6%
Reform	0	0.0%	9.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	26,278	46.6%	2.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

56%

LAB

44%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Bournemouth East

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Tobias Ellwood (CON)
County/Area:	Dorset (South West)
Electorate:	74,125
Turnout:	66.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,926	50.6%	29.6%
LAB	16,120	32.7%	43.7%
LIB	5,418	11.0%	12.0%
Green	2,049	4.2%	6.4%
OTH	761	1.5%	0.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.9%
CON Majority	8,806	17.9%	14.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

18%

LAB

82%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Bournemouth West

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Conor Burns (CON)
County/Area:	Dorset (South West)
Electorate:	74,205
Turnout:	62.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,550	53.4%	29.5%
LAB	14,400	31.3%	43.4%
LIB	4,931	10.7%	12.5%
Green	2,096	4.6%	6.6%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.5%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
CON Majority	10,150	22.1%	13.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

17%

LAB

83%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Bracknell

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	James Sunderland (CON)
County/Area:	Berkshire (South East)
Electorate:	78,978
Turnout:	68.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,894	58.7%	35.1%
LAB	12,065	22.2%	37.1%
LIB	7,749	14.3%	13.9%
Green	2,089	3.8%	5.7%
OTH	553	1.0%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.7%
CON Majority	19,829	36.5%	2.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

44%

LAB

56%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Bradford East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Imran Hussain (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	73,206
Turnout:	60.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	27,825	63.0%	71.0%
CON	9,681	21.9%	11.6%
LIB	3,316	7.5%	3.9%
Reform	2,700	6.1%	7.6%
Green	662	1.5%	5.6%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.2%
LAB Majority	18,144	41.1%	59.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Bradford South

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Judith Cummins (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	69,046
Turnout:	57.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,390	46.3%	61.5%
CON	16,044	40.4%	19.3%
Reform	2,819	7.1%	9.9%
LIB	1,505	3.8%	3.1%
Green	983	2.5%	5.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
LAB Majority	2,346	5.9%	42.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Bradford West

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Naz Shah (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	70,694
Turnout:	62.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	33,736	76.2%	81.1%
CON	6,717	15.2%	7.3%
Reform	1,556	3.5%	5.6%
LIB	1,349	3.0%	0.4%
Green	813	1.8%	5.6%
OTH	90	0.2%	0.1%
LAB Majority	27,019	61.0%	73.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Braintree

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	James Cleverly (CON)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	75,208
Turnout:	67.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	34,112	67.5%	40.8%
LAB	9,439	18.7%	34.9%
LIB	4,779	9.5%	11.2%
OTH	2,169	4.3%	0.6%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.4%
Green	0	0.0%	4.1%
CON Majority	24,673	48.9%	6.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

65%

LAB

35%

LIB

OTH

Reform

Green

Brent Central

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Dawn Butler (LAB)
County/Area:	Brent (London)
Electorate:	84,032
Turnout:	58.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	31,779	64.7%	71.6%
CON	10,909	22.2%	12.9%
LIB	4,844	9.9%	2.4%
Green	1,600	3.3%	7.7%
Reform	0	0.0%	5.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.2%
LAB Majority	20,870	42.5%	58.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Brent North

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Barry Gardiner (LAB)
County/Area:	Brent (London)
Electorate:	83,788
Turnout:	61.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	26,911	51.9%	65.0%
CON	18,832	36.3%	20.1%
LIB	4,065	7.8%	2.8%
Reform	951	1.8%	5.8%
Green	850	1.6%	6.0%
OTH	270	0.5%	0.3%
LAB Majority	8,079	15.6%	44.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Brentford and Isleworth

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Ruth Cadbury (LAB)
County/Area:	Hounslow (London)
Electorate:	85,775
Turnout:	68.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	29,266	50.2%	61.1%
CON	18,752	32.2%	19.9%
LIB	7,314	12.5%	5.2%
Green	1,829	3.1%	7.1%
Reform	1,165	2.0%	6.4%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
LAB Majority	10,514	18.0%	41.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Brentwood and Ongar

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Alex Burghart (CON)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	75,255
Turnout:	70.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	36,308	68.6%	43.9%
LAB	7,243	13.7%	28.1%
LIB	7,187	13.6%	14.1%
Green	1,679	3.2%	5.4%
OTH	532	1.0%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.1%
CON Majority	29,065	54.9%	15.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

84%

LAB

15%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Bridgwater and West Somerset

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Ian Liddell-Grainger (CON)
County/Area:	Somerset (South West)
Electorate:	85,327
Turnout:	67.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	35,827	62.1%	36.4%
LAB	11,388	19.8%	33.2%
LIB	7,805	13.5%	16.3%
Green	1,877	3.3%	4.7%
OTH	755	1.3%	0.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	8.9%
CON Majority	24,439	42.4%	3.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

59%

LAB

40%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Brigg and Goole

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Andrew Percy (CON)
County/Area:	Humber area (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	65,939
Turnout:	65.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,941	71.3%	39.2%
LAB	9,000	20.7%	39.2%
LIB	2,180	5.0%	6.7%
Green	1,281	3.0%	4.1%
Reform	0	0.0%	10.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.7%
CON Majority	21,941	50.6%	0.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

51%

LAB

49%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Brighton Kemptown

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Lloyd Russell-Moyle (LAB)
County/Area:	East Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	69,833
Turnout:	69.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	25,033	51.6%	57.9%
CON	16,972	35.0%	19.5%
LIB	2,964	6.1%	6.3%
Green	2,237	4.6%	8.8%
Reform	1,327	2.7%	7.0%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
LAB Majority	8,061	16.6%	38.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Brighton Pavilion

Prediction: Green hold

MP at 2019:	Caroline Lucas (Green)
County/Area:	East Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	79,057
Turnout:	73.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
Green	33,151	57.2%	60.0%
LAB	13,211	22.8%	22.3%
CON	10,176	17.5%	5.7%
Reform	770	1.3%	7.9%
OTH	690	1.2%	0.6%
LIB	0	0.0%	3.5%
Green Majority	19,940	34.4%	37.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

Green

99%

LAB

CON

Reform

OTH

LIB

Bristol East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Kerry McCarthy (LAB)
County/Area:	Bristol area (South West)
Electorate:	73,867
Turnout:	70.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	27,717	53.1%	62.1%
CON	16,923	32.4%	17.5%
LIB	3,527	6.8%	5.7%
Green	2,106	4.0%	7.0%
Reform	1,881	3.6%	7.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
LAB Majority	10,794	20.7%	44.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Bristol North West

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Darren Jones (LAB)
County/Area:	Bristol area (South West)
Electorate:	76,273
Turnout:	73.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	27,330	48.9%	56.6%
CON	21,638	38.7%	22.3%
LIB	4,940	8.8%	8.2%
Green	1,977	3.5%	6.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	6.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
LAB Majority	5,692	10.2%	34.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

98%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Bristol South

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Karin Smyth (LAB)
County/Area:	Bristol area (South West)
Electorate:	84,079
Turnout:	65.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	27,895	50.5%	58.7%
CON	18,036	32.7%	16.8%
LIB	4,227	7.7%	7.7%
Green	2,713	4.9%	8.6%
Reform	2,325	4.2%	7.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
LAB Majority	9,859	17.9%	41.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Bristol West

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Thangam Debbonaire (LAB)
County/Area:	Bristol area (South West)
Electorate:	99,253
Turnout:	76.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	47,028	62.3%	56.4%
Green	18,809	24.9%	28.0%
CON	8,822	11.7%	6.1%
Reform	869	1.2%	4.4%
LIB	0	0.0%	4.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
LAB Majority	28,219	37.4%	28.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

97%

Green

CON

Reform

LIB

OTH

Broadland

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Jerome Mayhew (CON)
County/Area:	Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	78,151
Turnout:	72.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	33,934	59.6%	36.1%
LAB	12,073	21.2%	33.3%
LIB	9,195	16.1%	17.6%
Green	1,412	2.5%	4.7%
OTH	363	0.6%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.9%
CON Majority	21,861	38.4%	2.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

57%

LAB

41%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Bromley and Chislehurst

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Bob Neill (CON)
County/Area:	Bromley (London)
Electorate:	66,697
Turnout:	68.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,958	52.6%	32.7%
LAB	13,067	28.7%	41.2%
LIB	6,621	14.5%	11.5%
Green	1,546	3.4%	6.3%
OTH	374	0.8%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.8%
CON Majority	10,891	23.9%	8.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

29%

LAB

71%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Bromsgrove

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Sajid Javid (CON)
County/Area:	Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	75,078
Turnout:	72.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	34,408	63.4%	39.4%
LAB	11,302	20.8%	35.3%
LIB	6,779	12.5%	12.2%
Green	1,783	3.3%	5.0%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	23,106	42.6%	4.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

60%

LAB

40%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Broxbourne

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Charles Walker (CON)
County/Area:	Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	73,182
Turnout:	63.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,631	65.6%	40.2%
LAB	10,824	23.2%	37.7%
LIB	3,970	8.5%	8.3%
Green	1,281	2.7%	5.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	19,807	42.4%	2.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

55%

LAB

45%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Broxtowe

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Darren Henry (CON)
County/Area:	Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	73,052
Turnout:	75.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,602	48.1%	26.8%
LAB	21,271	38.5%	53.5%
MIN	4,668	8.4%	0.0%
Green	1,806	3.3%	5.2%
OTH	925	1.7%	0.9%
LIB	0	0.0%	4.2%
Reform	0	0.0%	9.4%
CON Majority	5,331	9.6%	26.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

95%

MIN

Green

OTH

LIB

Reform

Buckingham

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Greg Smith (CON)
County/Area:	Buckinghamshire (South East)
Electorate:	83,146
Turnout:	76.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	37,035	58.4%	35.0%
LIB	16,624	26.2%	17.0%
LAB	7,638	12.0%	29.4%
Reform	1,286	2.0%	10.9%
OTH	875	1.4%	0.3%
Green	0	0.0%	7.4%
CON Majority	20,411	32.2%	5.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

61%

LIB

LAB

36%

Reform

OTH

Green

Burnley

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Antony Higginbotham (CON)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	64,345
Turnout:	60.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	15,720	40.3%	22.2%
LAB	14,368	36.9%	50.5%
LIB	3,501	9.0%	9.2%
Reform	3,362	8.6%	12.4%
OTH	1,294	3.3%	0.6%
Green	739	1.9%	5.0%
CON Majority	1,352	3.5%	28.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

97%

LIB

Reform

OTH

Green

Burton

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Kate Griffiths (CON)
County/Area:	Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	75,036
Turnout:	65.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,560	60.7%	35.1%
LAB	15,064	30.9%	45.8%
LIB	2,681	5.5%	6.2%
Green	1,433	2.9%	4.7%
Reform	0	0.0%	7.6%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	14,496	29.7%	10.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

25%

LAB

75%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Bury North

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	James Daly (CON)
County/Area:	Western Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	68,802
Turnout:	68.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,660	46.2%	25.2%
LAB	21,555	46.0%	58.4%
LIB	1,584	3.4%	3.8%
Reform	1,240	2.6%	7.8%
Green	802	1.7%	4.4%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
CON Majority	105	0.2%	33.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

98%

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Bury South

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Christian Wakeford (CON)
County/Area:	Western Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	75,152
Turnout:	66.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,034	43.8%	23.4%
LAB	21,632	43.0%	58.2%
LIB	2,315	4.6%	4.1%
OTH	1,773	3.5%	0.7%
Reform	1,672	3.3%	8.7%
Green	848	1.7%	4.9%
CON Majority	402	0.8%	34.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

99%

LIB

OTH

Reform

Green

Bury St Edmunds

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Jo Churchill (CON)
County/Area:	Suffolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	89,644
Turnout:	69.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	37,770	61.0%	33.2%
LAB	12,782	20.6%	35.0%
Green	9,711	15.7%	12.2%
OTH	1,694	2.7%	0.6%
LIB	0	0.0%	8.9%
Reform	0	0.0%	10.0%
CON Majority	24,988	40.3%	1.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

46%

LAB

53%

Green

OTH

LIB

Reform