Constituency List: England A-B

Aldershot

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Alex Baker (LAB)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	78,569
Turnout:	61.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,764	40.7%	27.3%
CON	14,081	29.0%	27.2%
Reform	8,210	16.9%	26.3%
LIB	4,052	8.3%	10.5%
Green	2,155	4.4%	8.0%
OTH	282	0.6%	0.7%
LAB Majority	5,683	11.7%	0.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

35%

CON

35%

Reform

29%

LIB

Green

OTH

Aldridge-Brownhills

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Wendy Morton (CON)
County/Area:	Black Country (West Midlands)
Electorate:	70,871
Turnout:	57.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	15,901	38.9%	33.0%
LAB	11,607	28.4%	17.6%
Reform	9,903	24.2%	33.8%
LIB	1,755	4.3%	7.9%
Green	1,746	4.3%	6.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.8%
CON Majority	4,294	10.5%	0.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

47%

LAB

Reform

50%

LIB

Green

OTH

Altrincham and Sale West

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Connor Rand (LAB)
County/Area:	Central Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	74,025
Turnout:	69.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,798	40.4%	27.8%
CON	16,624	32.3%	26.8%
Reform	4,961	9.6%	20.8%
LIB	4,727	9.2%	12.0%
Green	3,699	7.2%	10.1%
MIN	643	1.2%	2.5%
LAB Majority	4,174	8.1%	0.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

44%

CON

39%

Reform

15%

LIB

Green

MIN

Amber Valley

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Linsey Farnsworth (LAB)
County/Area:	Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	71,546
Turnout:	59.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,746	37.0%	19.9%
Reform	12,192	28.7%	41.3%
CON	10,725	25.2%	21.8%
Green	2,278	5.4%	8.0%
LIB	1,590	3.7%	8.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.7%
LAB Majority	3,554	8.4%	19.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

Reform

88%

CON

Green

LIB

OTH

Arundel and South Downs

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Andrew Griffith (CON)
County/Area:	West Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	77,969
Turnout:	70.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,001	40.2%	31.0%
LIB	9,867	18.0%	17.9%
LAB	9,782	17.9%	14.0%
Reform	7,391	13.5%	25.7%
Green	5,515	10.1%	10.9%
OTH	184	0.3%	0.5%
CON Majority	12,134	22.2%	5.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

59%

LIB

LAB

Reform

30%

Green

OTH

Ashfield

Prediction: Reform hold

MP at 2024:	Lee Anderson (Reform)
County/Area:	Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	68,929
Turnout:	57.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
Reform	17,062	42.8%	47.1%
LAB	11,554	29.0%	18.9%
MIN	6,276	15.7%	13.5%
CON	3,271	8.2%	10.6%
Green	1,100	2.8%	4.5%
LIB	619	1.6%	5.3%
Reform Majority	5,508	13.8%	28.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

Reform

96%

LAB

MIN

CON

Green

LIB

Ashford

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Sojan Joseph (LAB)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	76,212
Turnout:	61.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,262	32.5%	22.4%
CON	13,483	28.7%	25.7%
Reform	10,141	21.6%	31.0%
Green	4,355	9.3%	10.8%
LIB	2,445	5.2%	8.9%
OTH	1,289	2.7%	1.2%
LAB Majority	1,779	3.8%	5.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

17%

CON

27%

Reform

56%

Green

LIB

OTH

Ashton-under-Lyne

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Angela Rayner (LAB)
County/Area:	Eastern Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	71,002
Turnout:	49.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,575	43.9%	27.6%
Reform	8,784	24.8%	34.8%
CON	4,375	12.3%	14.0%
MIN	2,835	8.0%	7.7%
Green	2,481	7.0%	8.4%
LIB	1,411	4.0%	7.6%
LAB Majority	6,791	19.2%	7.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

30%

Reform

68%

CON

MIN

Green

LIB

Aylesbury

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Laura Elizabeth Kyrke-Smith (LAB)
County/Area:	Buckinghamshire (South East)
Electorate:	79,169
Turnout:	63.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,081	30.2%	23.1%
CON	14,451	28.9%	24.3%
LIB	10,440	20.9%	17.3%
Reform	6,746	13.5%	25.3%
Green	2,590	5.2%	8.0%
MIN	516	1.0%	1.8%
OTH	116	0.2%	0.2%
LAB Majority	630	1.3%	0.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

23%

CON

31%

LIB

Reform

37%

Green

MIN

OTH

Banbury

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Sean Woodcock (LAB)
County/Area:	Oxfordshire (South East)
Electorate:	73,193
Turnout:	65.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,468	38.3%	28.1%
CON	15,212	31.6%	24.6%
Reform	6,284	13.0%	25.2%
LIB	4,352	9.0%	12.3%
Green	2,615	5.4%	8.3%
OTH	1,247	2.6%	1.5%
LAB Majority	3,256	6.8%	2.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

42%

CON

27%

Reform

29%

LIB

Green

OTH

Barking

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Nesil Caliskan (LAB)
County/Area:	Barking and Dagenham (London)
Electorate:	79,825
Turnout:	45.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,227	44.5%	31.1%
Reform	5,173	14.2%	24.2%
Green	4,988	13.7%	15.5%
CON	4,294	11.8%	12.8%
MIN	3,578	9.8%	7.5%
OTH	1,202	3.3%	1.3%
LIB	1,015	2.8%	7.6%
LAB Majority	11,054	30.3%	6.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

64%

Reform

28%

Green

CON

MIN

OTH

LIB

Barnsley North

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Dan Jarvis (LAB)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	78,267
Turnout:	47.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,610	50.4%	30.8%
Reform	10,799	29.3%	39.3%
CON	3,083	8.4%	10.0%
Green	1,805	4.9%	8.3%
LIB	1,336	3.6%	9.2%
OTH	1,261	3.4%	2.4%
LAB Majority	7,811	21.2%	8.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

28%

Reform

71%

CON

Green

LIB

OTH

Barnsley South

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Stephanie Peacock (LAB)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	75,850
Turnout:	46.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,399	46.7%	28.1%
Reform	11,651	33.2%	42.4%
CON	3,247	9.3%	10.4%
Green	1,521	4.3%	7.8%
LIB	1,172	3.3%	8.9%
OTH	1,092	3.1%	2.3%
LAB Majority	4,748	13.5%	14.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

16%

Reform

83%

CON

Green

LIB

OTH

Barrow and Furness

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Michelle Scrogham (LAB)
County/Area:	Cumbria (North West)
Electorate:	74,980
Turnout:	56.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,537	43.9%	25.4%
CON	13,213	31.3%	25.9%
Reform	7,035	16.7%	33.0%
LIB	1,680	4.0%	8.4%
Green	1,466	3.5%	6.5%
OTH	290	0.7%	0.7%
LAB Majority	5,324	12.6%	7.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

20%

CON

23%

Reform

57%

LIB

Green

OTH

Basildon and Billericay

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Richard John Holden (CON)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	76,873
Turnout:	54.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	12,905	30.6%	27.6%
LAB	12,885	30.6%	18.1%
Reform	11,354	27.0%	36.1%
LIB	2,292	5.4%	9.0%
Green	2,123	5.0%	8.1%
OTH	565	1.3%	1.1%
CON Majority	20	0.0%	8.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

26%

LAB

Reform

70%

LIB

Green

OTH

Basildon South and East Thurrock

Prediction: Reform hold

MP at 2024:	James McMurdock (Reform)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	72,673
Turnout:	54.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
Reform	12,178	30.8%	40.8%
LAB	12,080	30.5%	18.2%
CON	10,159	25.7%	23.5%
OTH	2,343	5.9%	2.4%
Green	1,718	4.3%	7.3%
LIB	1,071	2.7%	7.9%
Reform Majority	98	0.2%	17.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

Reform

86%

LAB

CON

11%

OTH

Green

LIB

Basingstoke

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Luke Murphy (LAB)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	78,487
Turnout:	62.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,922	42.7%	28.5%
CON	14,438	29.5%	26.8%
Reform	6,314	12.9%	23.5%
Green	3,568	7.3%	10.4%
LIB	3,176	6.5%	9.9%
OTH	571	1.2%	0.8%
LAB Majority	6,484	13.2%	1.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

44%

CON

34%

Reform

21%

Green

LIB

OTH

Bassetlaw

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Jo White (LAB)
County/Area:	Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	78,173
Turnout:	57.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,476	41.2%	23.1%
CON	12,708	28.3%	23.5%
Reform	9,751	21.7%	38.2%
LIB	1,996	4.4%	8.1%
Green	1,947	4.3%	6.6%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
LAB Majority	5,768	12.9%	14.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

11%

Reform

79%

LIB

Green

OTH

Bath

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Wera Hobhouse (LIB)
County/Area:	Bristol area (South West)
Electorate:	69,655
Turnout:	69.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	19,883	41.3%	34.0%
LAB	8,665	18.0%	19.5%
CON	7,659	15.9%	15.5%
Green	5,952	12.4%	14.6%
Reform	3,798	7.9%	13.7%
OTH	1,943	4.0%	2.3%
MIN	230	0.5%	0.5%
LIB Majority	11,218	23.3%	14.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

76%

LAB

11%

CON

Green

Reform

OTH

MIN

Battersea

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Marsha de Cordova (LAB)
County/Area:	Wandsworth (London)
Electorate:	72,767
Turnout:	64.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,983	48.8%	38.5%
CON	10,944	23.2%	18.7%
LIB	4,826	10.3%	14.0%
Green	4,239	9.0%	14.2%
Reform	2,825	6.0%	11.9%
OTH	766	1.6%	1.2%
MIN	499	1.1%	1.6%
LAB Majority	12,039	25.6%	19.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

91%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

MIN

Beaconsfield

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Joy Morrissey (CON)
County/Area:	Buckinghamshire (South East)
Electorate:	72,751
Turnout:	65.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,494	38.8%	35.1%
LIB	13,039	27.3%	22.4%
LAB	7,216	15.1%	13.6%
Reform	6,055	12.7%	21.0%
Green	1,977	4.1%	6.9%
OTH	945	2.0%	1.0%
CON Majority	5,455	11.4%	12.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

73%

LIB

13%

LAB

Reform

11%

Green

OTH

Beckenham and Penge

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Liam Conlon (LAB)
County/Area:	Bromley (London)
Electorate:	76,876
Turnout:	67.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	25,753	49.3%	38.5%
CON	12,848	24.6%	20.9%
Reform	5,355	10.3%	17.0%
LIB	4,436	8.5%	11.9%
Green	3,830	7.3%	10.6%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.0%
LAB Majority	12,905	24.7%	17.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

87%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Bedford

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Mohammad Yasin (LAB)
County/Area:	Bedfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	72,478
Turnout:	56.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,342	45.1%	30.6%
CON	8,912	21.9%	20.5%
Reform	4,548	11.2%	23.1%
LIB	4,025	9.9%	12.4%
Green	2,394	5.9%	9.7%
OTH	1,442	3.5%	1.5%
MIN	996	2.4%	2.1%
LAB Majority	9,430	23.2%	7.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

61%

CON

14%

Reform

23%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Bedfordshire Mid

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Blake Stephenson (CON)
County/Area:	Bedfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	76,218
Turnout:	65.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,912	34.1%	28.2%
LAB	15,591	31.4%	23.3%
Reform	8,594	17.3%	28.6%
LIB	4,068	8.2%	10.9%
Green	2,584	5.2%	7.6%
OTH	1,872	3.8%	1.4%
CON Majority	1,321	2.7%	0.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

38%

LAB

18%

Reform

42%

LIB

Green

OTH

Bedfordshire North

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Richard Fuller (CON)
County/Area:	Bedfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	78,850
Turnout:	65.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,981	38.8%	31.1%
LAB	14,567	28.3%	21.0%
Reform	8,433	16.4%	27.9%
LIB	5,553	10.8%	11.7%
Green	3,027	5.9%	7.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
CON Majority	5,414	10.5%	3.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

53%

LAB

12%

Reform

34%

LIB

Green

OTH

Bermondsey and Old Southwark

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Neil Coyle (LAB)
County/Area:	Southwark (London)
Electorate:	69,473
Turnout:	54.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,857	44.8%	34.4%
LIB	9,070	24.1%	22.1%
Green	4,477	11.9%	18.7%
Reform	3,397	9.0%	14.5%
CON	2,879	7.7%	8.4%
OTH	923	2.5%	1.9%
LAB Majority	7,787	20.7%	12.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

77%

LIB

12%

Green

Reform

CON

OTH

Bethnal Green and Stepney

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Rushanara Ali (LAB)
County/Area:	Tower Hamlets (London)
Electorate:	81,922
Turnout:	56.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,896	34.1%	27.3%
MIN	14,207	30.5%	21.2%
Green	6,391	13.7%	19.0%
LIB	4,777	10.2%	12.7%
Reform	1,964	4.2%	10.9%
CON	1,920	4.1%	7.7%
OTH	1,492	3.2%	1.1%
LAB Majority	1,689	3.6%	6.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

61%

MIN

14%

Green

17%

LIB

Reform

CON

OTH

Beverley and Holderness

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Graham Stuart (CON)
County/Area:	Humber area (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	70,559
Turnout:	63.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	15,501	34.5%	27.0%
LAB	15,377	34.2%	19.9%
Reform	8,198	18.3%	34.0%
LIB	3,386	7.5%	11.3%
Green	1,647	3.7%	6.7%
OTH	788	1.8%	1.1%
CON Majority	124	0.3%	7.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

28%

LAB

Reform

63%

LIB

Green

OTH

Bexhill and Battle

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Kieran Mullan (CON)
County/Area:	East Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	72,209
Turnout:	66.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,186	33.9%	28.6%
LAB	13,529	28.3%	19.3%
Reform	7,929	16.6%	28.5%
OTH	3,661	7.7%	2.9%
LIB	3,473	7.3%	12.0%
Green	2,972	6.2%	8.7%
CON Majority	2,657	5.6%	0.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

46%

LAB

10%

Reform

42%

OTH

LIB

Green

Bexleyheath and Crayford

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Daniel Francis (LAB)
County/Area:	Bexley (London)
Electorate:	69,470
Turnout:	62.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,717	36.2%	22.4%
CON	13,603	31.3%	28.4%
Reform	9,861	22.7%	31.9%
LIB	2,204	5.1%	8.5%
Green	2,076	4.8%	8.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.7%
LAB Majority	2,114	4.9%	3.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

14%

CON

33%

Reform

53%

LIB

Green

OTH

Bicester and Woodstock

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Calum Alexander Miller (LIB)
County/Area:	Oxfordshire (South East)
Electorate:	74,350
Turnout:	67.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	19,419	38.7%	29.2%
CON	14,461	28.8%	25.6%
LAB	8,236	16.4%	15.3%
Reform	5,408	10.8%	21.4%
Green	2,404	4.8%	8.0%
OTH	291	0.6%	0.6%
LIB Majority	4,958	9.9%	3.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

49%

CON

30%

LAB

Reform

16%

Green

OTH

Birkenhead

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Alison McGovern (LAB)
County/Area:	Merseyside (North West)
Electorate:	78,091
Turnout:	55.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,468	52.1%	34.8%
Green	8,670	20.1%	20.9%
Reform	6,142	14.2%	23.7%
CON	3,238	7.5%	8.7%
LIB	2,292	5.3%	10.5%
OTH	324	0.8%	1.4%
LAB Majority	13,798	32.0%	11.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

72%

Green

Reform

18%

CON

LIB

OTH

Birmingham Edgbaston

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Preet Kaur Gill (LAB)
County/Area:	Birmingham (West Midlands)
Electorate:	71,787
Turnout:	52.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,599	44.3%	32.6%
CON	8,231	22.0%	20.4%
Reform	4,363	11.7%	20.8%
OTH	3,336	8.9%	3.9%
Green	2,797	7.5%	10.6%
LIB	2,102	5.6%	11.8%
LAB Majority	8,368	22.4%	11.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

69%

CON

13%

Reform

15%

OTH

Green

LIB

Birmingham Erdington

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Paulette Hamilton (LAB)
County/Area:	Birmingham (West Midlands)
Electorate:	77,463
Turnout:	43.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,774	43.7%	29.4%
Reform	7,755	22.9%	31.7%
CON	5,402	16.0%	16.8%
Green	2,452	7.3%	9.2%
OTH	2,287	6.8%	3.5%
LIB	1,128	3.3%	9.4%
LAB Majority	7,019	20.8%	2.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

40%

Reform

54%

CON

Green

OTH

LIB

Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Tahir Ali (LAB)
County/Area:	Birmingham (West Midlands)
Electorate:	76,936
Turnout:	54.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	12,798	30.8%	26.5%
MIN	7,142	17.2%	11.2%
OTH	6,892	16.6%	5.8%
LIB	4,711	11.3%	15.4%
Green	3,913	9.4%	13.7%
CON	3,845	9.2%	13.7%
Reform	2,305	5.5%	13.7%
LAB Majority	5,656	13.6%	11.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

59%

MIN

OTH

LIB

Green

CON

11%

Reform

12%

Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Liam Byrne (LAB)
County/Area:	Birmingham (West Midlands)
Electorate:	77,737
Turnout:	43.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	10,655	31.2%	22.0%
MIN	9,089	26.6%	17.7%
Reform	6,456	18.9%	28.7%
CON	4,634	13.6%	17.2%
Green	2,360	6.9%	8.1%
LIB	942	2.8%	6.4%
LAB Majority	1,566	4.6%	6.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

25%

MIN

Reform

59%

CON

11%

Green

LIB

Birmingham Ladywood

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Shabana Mahmood (LAB)
County/Area:	Birmingham (West Midlands)
Electorate:	83,693
Turnout:	43.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,558	42.5%	30.5%
MIN	12,137	33.2%	21.9%
Green	3,478	9.5%	14.6%
CON	2,218	6.1%	9.9%
LIB	1,711	4.7%	8.3%
Reform	1,477	4.0%	14.8%
LAB Majority	3,421	9.4%	8.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

73%

MIN

11%

Green

CON

LIB

Reform

Birmingham Northfield

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Laurence Turner (LAB)
County/Area:	Birmingham (West Midlands)
Electorate:	74,048
Turnout:	50.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,929	39.6%	25.9%
CON	9,540	25.3%	21.3%
Reform	7,895	21.0%	32.8%
Green	2,809	7.5%	9.7%
LIB	1,791	4.8%	8.8%
OTH	688	1.8%	1.5%
LAB Majority	5,389	14.3%	7.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

25%

CON

12%

Reform

62%

Green

LIB

OTH

Birmingham Perry Barr

Prediction: LAB gain from MIN

MP at 2024:	Ayoub Khan (MIN)
County/Area:	Birmingham (West Midlands)
Electorate:	76,350
Turnout:	49.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
MIN	13,303	35.5%	23.0%
LAB	12,796	34.1%	26.3%
CON	4,227	11.3%	15.1%
Reform	2,446	6.5%	17.2%
Green	2,440	6.5%	10.1%
LIB	1,302	3.5%	7.5%
OTH	962	2.6%	0.8%
MIN Majority	507	1.4%	3.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

MIN

17%

LAB

54%

CON

10%

Reform

16%

Green

LIB

OTH

Birmingham Selly Oak

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Alistair Carns (LAB)
County/Area:	Birmingham (West Midlands)
Electorate:	75,678
Turnout:	50.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,371	45.2%	33.2%
CON	5,834	15.2%	15.8%
Reform	5,732	14.9%	22.0%
Green	4,320	11.2%	13.3%
OTH	2,842	7.4%	3.6%
LIB	2,324	6.0%	12.1%
LAB Majority	11,537	30.0%	11.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

74%

CON

Reform

18%

Green

OTH

LIB

Birmingham Yardley

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Jess Phillips (LAB)
County/Area:	Birmingham (West Midlands)
Electorate:	73,203
Turnout:	49.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	11,275	31.2%	23.7%
MIN	10,582	29.3%	20.1%
Reform	5,061	14.0%	22.9%
CON	3,634	10.1%	15.1%
LIB	3,634	10.1%	10.5%
Green	1,958	5.4%	7.7%
LAB Majority	693	1.9%	0.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

40%

MIN

11%

Reform

35%

CON

10%

LIB

Green

Bishop Auckland

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Sam Rushworth (LAB)
County/Area:	Durham (North East)
Electorate:	70,745
Turnout:	57.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,036	42.1%	24.8%
CON	10,364	25.6%	18.3%
Reform	9,466	23.4%	41.3%
Green	1,857	4.6%	6.4%
LIB	1,373	3.4%	8.2%
OTH	331	0.8%	0.9%
LAB Majority	6,672	16.5%	16.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

11%

CON

Reform

86%

Green

LIB

OTH

Blackburn

Prediction: MIN hold

MP at 2024:	Adnan Hussain (MIN)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	73,259
Turnout:	53.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
MIN	10,518	27.0%	31.1%
LAB	10,386	26.7%	19.6%
OTH	7,560	19.4%	0.0%
Reform	4,844	12.5%	23.3%
CON	3,474	8.9%	13.0%
Green	1,416	3.6%	7.1%
LIB	689	1.8%	5.9%
MIN Majority	132	0.3%	7.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

MIN

52%

LAB

15%

OTH

Reform

28%

CON

Green

LIB

Blackley and Middleton South

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Graham Stringer (LAB)
County/Area:	Central Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	72,097
Turnout:	43.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,864	53.8%	32.3%
Reform	6,614	21.1%	33.3%
Green	3,197	10.2%	12.7%
CON	3,073	9.8%	11.0%
LIB	1,592	5.1%	9.5%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.3%
LAB Majority	10,250	32.7%	1.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

46%

Reform

52%

Green

CON

LIB

OTH

Blackpool North and Fleetwood

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Lorraine Beavers (LAB)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	73,339
Turnout:	57.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,744	40.0%	23.0%
CON	12,097	28.9%	25.8%
Reform	9,913	23.7%	36.5%
LIB	1,318	3.2%	7.6%
Green	1,269	3.0%	6.1%
OTH	469	1.1%	1.0%
LAB Majority	4,647	11.1%	10.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

13%

CON

18%

Reform

69%

LIB

Green

OTH

Blackpool South

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Chris Webb (LAB)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	77,459
Turnout:	45.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,916	48.1%	26.0%
Reform	10,068	28.6%	41.8%
CON	5,504	15.6%	15.4%
Green	1,207	3.4%	7.0%
LIB	1,041	3.0%	8.3%
OTH	444	1.3%	1.5%
LAB Majority	6,848	19.5%	15.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

13%

Reform

86%

CON

Green

LIB

OTH

Blaydon and Consett

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Liz Twist (LAB)
County/Area:	Durham (North East)
Electorate:	70,487
Turnout:	59.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,160	50.1%	33.6%
Reform	10,007	23.7%	33.4%
CON	6,052	14.3%	13.7%
Green	2,589	6.1%	8.1%
LIB	2,273	5.4%	10.0%
OTH	135	0.3%	1.3%
LAB Majority	11,153	26.4%	0.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

51%

Reform

48%

CON

Green

LIB

OTH

Blyth and Ashington

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Ian Lavery (LAB)
County/Area:	Northumberland (North East)
Electorate:	76,263
Turnout:	53.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,030	49.6%	31.2%
Reform	10,857	26.9%	37.1%
CON	6,121	15.2%	14.8%
Green	1,960	4.9%	7.0%
LIB	1,433	3.5%	8.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.2%
LAB Majority	9,173	22.7%	5.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

34%

Reform

65%

CON

Green

LIB

OTH

Bognor Regis and Littlehampton

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Ali Griffiths (CON)
County/Area:	West Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	77,565
Turnout:	61.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	15,678	32.8%	28.9%
LAB	13,913	29.1%	18.6%
Reform	10,262	21.5%	31.2%
LIB	5,081	10.6%	12.3%
Green	2,185	4.6%	7.8%
OTH	708	1.5%	1.2%
CON Majority	1,765	3.7%	2.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

42%

LAB

Reform

50%

LIB

Green

OTH

Bolsover

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Natalie Fleet (LAB)
County/Area:	Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	77,207
Turnout:	55.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,197	40.5%	23.1%
CON	10,874	25.6%	18.6%
Reform	9,131	21.5%	41.1%
Green	3,754	8.8%	8.8%
LIB	1,478	3.5%	7.6%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.8%
LAB Majority	6,323	14.9%	18.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

Reform

88%

Green

LIB

OTH

Bolton North East

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Kirith Entwistle (LAB)
County/Area:	Western Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	80,011
Turnout:	54.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,166	37.3%	22.3%
CON	9,513	21.9%	19.7%
Reform	9,428	21.7%	35.1%
Green	4,683	10.8%	11.2%
LIB	1,507	3.5%	7.7%
MIN	1,463	3.4%	3.4%
OTH	599	1.4%	0.7%
LAB Majority	6,653	15.3%	12.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

15%

CON

Reform

76%

Green

LIB

MIN

OTH

Bolton South and Walkden

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Yasmin Qureshi (LAB)
County/Area:	Western Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	79,622
Turnout:	46.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,093	40.9%	25.2%
Reform	8,350	22.6%	34.0%
MIN	4,673	12.7%	9.8%
CON	4,170	11.3%	14.0%
Green	2,827	7.7%	8.8%
LIB	1,384	3.7%	7.7%
OTH	433	1.2%	0.5%
LAB Majority	6,743	18.3%	8.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

26%

Reform

70%

MIN

CON

Green

LIB

OTH

Bolton West

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Phil Brickell (LAB)
County/Area:	Western Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	74,933
Turnout:	59.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,363	38.9%	23.6%
CON	12,418	27.8%	25.9%
Reform	8,517	19.1%	30.4%
Green	4,132	9.3%	10.8%
LIB	1,966	4.4%	8.5%
OTH	202	0.5%	0.8%
LAB Majority	4,945	11.1%	4.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

20%

CON

28%

Reform

51%

Green

LIB

OTH

Bootle

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Peter Dowd (LAB)
County/Area:	Merseyside (North West)
Electorate:	73,037
Turnout:	53.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	26,729	68.7%	44.0%
Reform	4,746	12.2%	23.1%
Green	3,904	10.0%	14.0%
CON	1,674	4.3%	7.1%
LIB	1,301	3.3%	8.6%
MIN	526	1.4%	3.3%
LAB Majority	21,983	56.5%	20.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

93%

Reform

Green

CON

LIB

MIN

Boston and Skegness

Prediction: Reform hold

MP at 2024:	Richard Tice (Reform)
County/Area:	Lincolnshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	75,811
Turnout:	53.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
Reform	15,520	38.4%	52.6%
CON	13,510	33.4%	24.1%
LAB	7,629	18.9%	9.8%
Green	1,506	3.7%	5.2%
LIB	1,375	3.4%	7.1%
OTH	915	2.3%	1.2%
Reform Majority	2,010	5.0%	28.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

Reform

97%

CON

LAB

Green

LIB

OTH

Bournemouth East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Tom Hayes (LAB)
County/Area:	Dorset (South West)
Electorate:	72,354
Turnout:	62.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,316	40.8%	29.2%
CON	12,837	28.6%	23.5%
Reform	6,268	14.0%	24.3%
LIB	3,082	6.9%	11.0%
Green	2,790	6.2%	10.0%
OTH	1,617	3.6%	2.1%
LAB Majority	5,479	12.2%	4.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

50%

CON

23%

Reform

25%

LIB

Green

OTH

Bournemouth West

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Jessica Toale (LAB)
County/Area:	Dorset (South West)
Electorate:	70,259
Turnout:	56.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,365	36.4%	24.5%
CON	11,141	28.3%	25.5%
Reform	6,647	16.9%	26.7%
LIB	4,311	10.9%	12.2%
Green	2,614	6.6%	10.3%
OTH	340	0.9%	0.8%
LAB Majority	3,224	8.2%	1.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

28%

CON

34%

Reform

36%

LIB

Green

OTH

Bracknell

Prediction: CON gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Peter Swallow (LAB)
County/Area:	Berkshire (South East)
Electorate:	71,656
Turnout:	61.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,783	33.7%	23.1%
CON	13,999	31.9%	29.3%
Reform	7,445	17.0%	25.8%
LIB	4,768	10.9%	12.6%
Green	2,166	4.9%	8.2%
OTH	676	1.5%	1.0%
LAB Majority	784	1.8%	3.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

20%

CON

49%

Reform

28%

LIB

Green

OTH

Bradford East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Imran Hussain (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	75,167
Turnout:	49.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,098	37.9%	26.2%
MIN	7,909	21.3%	14.5%
Reform	4,952	13.3%	24.6%
CON	3,450	9.3%	12.5%
Green	2,571	6.9%	10.5%
OTH	2,326	6.2%	2.1%
LIB	1,910	5.1%	9.6%
LAB Majority	6,189	16.6%	1.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

49%

MIN

Reform

41%

CON

Green

OTH

LIB

Bradford South

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Judith Cummins (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	71,002
Turnout:	46.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	11,833	35.8%	23.1%
Reform	7,441	22.5%	34.2%
CON	4,853	14.7%	15.9%
OTH	4,082	12.4%	5.0%
Green	3,366	10.2%	10.5%
LIB	954	2.9%	10.0%
MIN	513	1.6%	1.3%
LAB Majority	4,392	13.3%	11.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

18%

Reform

75%

CON

OTH

Green

LIB

MIN

Bradford West

Prediction: MIN gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Naz Shah (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	77,897
Turnout:	47.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	11,724	31.6%	22.4%
MIN	11,017	29.7%	25.9%
OTH	3,881	10.5%	0.0%
Green	3,690	10.0%	12.5%
CON	3,055	8.2%	13.1%
Reform	2,958	8.0%	19.6%
LIB	756	2.0%	6.5%
LAB Majority	707	1.9%	3.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

34%

MIN

32%

OTH

Green

CON

Reform

23%

LIB

Braintree

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	James Cleverly (CON)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	77,781
Turnout:	63.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,414	35.5%	29.1%
LAB	13,744	28.0%	18.2%
Reform	11,346	23.1%	33.9%
LIB	2,879	5.9%	9.4%
Green	2,878	5.9%	8.3%
OTH	767	1.6%	1.0%
CON Majority	3,670	7.5%	4.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

33%

LAB

Reform

61%

LIB

Green

OTH

Brent East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Dawn Butler (LAB)
County/Area:	Brent (London)
Electorate:	77,257
Turnout:	48.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,370	51.2%	36.6%
CON	6,323	16.7%	14.5%
Green	3,729	9.9%	15.1%
OTH	2,669	7.1%	3.1%
LIB	2,635	7.0%	12.0%
Reform	2,024	5.4%	16.3%
MIN	1,052	2.8%	2.4%
LAB Majority	13,047	34.5%	20.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

88%

CON

Green

OTH

LIB

Reform

MIN

Brent West

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Barry Gardiner (LAB)
County/Area:	Brent (London)
Electorate:	79,937
Turnout:	51.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,258	41.7%	30.5%
CON	13,465	32.5%	29.1%
LIB	3,013	7.3%	9.6%
Green	2,805	6.8%	9.6%
MIN	2,774	6.7%	5.9%
Reform	2,061	5.0%	15.3%
LAB Majority	3,793	9.2%	1.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

53%

CON

42%

LIB

Green

MIN

Reform

Brentford and Isleworth

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Ruth Cadbury (LAB)
County/Area:	Hounslow (London)
Electorate:	79,283
Turnout:	57.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,007	44.2%	32.7%
CON	10,183	22.5%	21.2%
Green	4,029	8.9%	11.5%
Reform	3,940	8.7%	17.2%
LIB	3,863	8.5%	11.3%
MIN	2,746	6.1%	5.7%
OTH	486	1.1%	0.5%
LAB Majority	9,824	21.7%	11.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

76%

CON

15%

Green

Reform

LIB

MIN

OTH

Brentwood and Ongar

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Alex Burghart (CON)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	75,352
Turnout:	64.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,731	36.7%	30.3%
Reform	11,751	24.3%	33.1%
LAB	11,082	22.9%	16.0%
LIB	5,809	12.0%	13.1%
Green	1,770	3.7%	6.7%
OTH	189	0.4%	0.7%
CON Majority	5,980	12.4%	2.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

38%

Reform

58%

LAB

LIB

Green

OTH

Bridgwater

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Ashley Fox (CON)
County/Area:	Somerset (South West)
Electorate:	71,571
Turnout:	56.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	12,281	30.6%	26.6%
LAB	10,932	27.2%	18.3%
Reform	8,913	22.2%	33.2%
LIB	5,781	14.4%	14.1%
Green	1,720	4.3%	6.6%
OTH	334	0.8%	0.6%
MIN	168	0.4%	0.6%
CON Majority	1,349	3.4%	6.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

26%

LAB

Reform

66%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Bridlington and the Wolds

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Charlie Dewhirst (CON)
County/Area:	Humber area (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	72,931
Turnout:	58.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	14,846	34.6%	26.5%
LAB	11,721	27.3%	15.2%
Reform	10,350	24.1%	40.2%
LIB	3,097	7.2%	10.5%
Green	1,595	3.7%	6.1%
OTH	1,328	3.1%	1.5%
CON Majority	3,125	7.3%	13.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

15%

LAB

Reform

83%

LIB

Green

OTH

Brigg and Immingham

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Martin Vickers (CON)
County/Area:	Humber area (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	74,297
Turnout:	57.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	15,905	37.4%	28.5%
LAB	12,662	29.8%	16.2%
Reform	10,594	24.9%	40.5%
Green	1,905	4.5%	6.5%
LIB	1,442	3.4%	7.6%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.6%
CON Majority	3,243	7.6%	12.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

20%

LAB

Reform

78%

Green

LIB

OTH

Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Chris Ward (LAB)
County/Area:	East Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	68,784
Turnout:	59.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,893	44.0%	33.2%
CON	8,230	20.2%	17.3%
Green	7,997	19.7%	20.3%
LIB	3,949	9.7%	13.7%
OTH	2,617	6.4%	3.1%
Reform	0	0.0%	12.4%
LAB Majority	9,663	23.8%	13.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

76%

CON

Green

10%

LIB

OTH

Reform

Brighton Pavilion

Prediction: Green hold

MP at 2024:	Si�n Berry (Green)
County/Area:	East Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	74,786
Turnout:	70.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
Green	28,809	55.0%	49.8%
LAB	14,519	27.7%	24.8%
CON	3,975	7.6%	7.2%
Reform	2,836	5.4%	8.6%
LIB	1,604	3.1%	8.3%
OTH	620	1.2%	1.2%
Green Majority	14,290	27.3%	25.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

Green

96%

LAB

CON

Reform

LIB

OTH

Bristol Central

Prediction: Green hold

MP at 2024:	Carla Denyer (Green)
County/Area:	Bristol area (South West)
Electorate:	62,735
Turnout:	69.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
Green	24,539	56.6%	53.3%
LAB	14,132	32.6%	26.8%
CON	1,998	4.6%	5.2%
Reform	1,338	3.1%	6.1%
LIB	1,162	2.7%	7.7%
OTH	196	0.5%	0.9%
Green Majority	10,407	24.0%	26.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

Green

96%

LAB

CON

Reform

LIB

OTH

Bristol East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Kerry McCarthy (LAB)
County/Area:	Bristol area (South West)
Electorate:	75,917
Turnout:	60.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,748	45.0%	34.6%
Green	14,142	30.7%	30.1%
CON	6,435	14.0%	11.9%
LIB	2,713	5.9%	10.5%
OTH	2,071	4.5%	2.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	10.5%
LAB Majority	6,606	14.3%	4.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

63%

Green

34%

CON

LIB

OTH

Reform

Bristol North East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Damien Egan (LAB)
County/Area:	Bristol area (South West)
Electorate:	70,076
Turnout:	59.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,004	45.3%	34.2%
Green	7,837	18.7%	18.3%
CON	6,216	14.8%	14.6%
Reform	5,418	12.9%	20.8%
LIB	1,964	4.7%	9.8%
OTH	1,550	3.7%	2.3%
LAB Majority	11,167	26.6%	13.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

76%

Green

CON

Reform

12%

LIB

OTH

Bristol North West

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Darren Jones (LAB)
County/Area:	Bristol area (South West)
Electorate:	74,869
Turnout:	64.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	24,058	49.6%	38.0%
Green	8,389	17.3%	18.2%
CON	6,773	14.0%	13.6%
Reform	4,863	10.0%	16.4%
LIB	4,159	8.6%	12.6%
OTH	222	0.5%	1.1%
LAB Majority	15,669	32.3%	19.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

89%

Green

CON

Reform

LIB

OTH

Bristol South

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Karin Smyth (LAB)
County/Area:	Bristol area (South West)
Electorate:	75,533
Turnout:	57.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,521	42.7%	31.9%
Green	10,855	25.0%	23.3%
Reform	6,195	14.3%	21.5%
CON	4,947	11.4%	12.0%
LIB	2,721	6.3%	10.1%
OTH	164	0.4%	1.2%
LAB Majority	7,666	17.7%	8.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

63%

Green

19%

Reform

15%

CON

LIB

OTH

Broadland and Fakenham

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Jerome Mayhew (CON)
County/Area:	Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	76,859
Turnout:	64.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,322	33.0%	26.5%
LAB	15,603	31.5%	22.6%
Reform	8,859	17.9%	30.7%
LIB	5,526	11.2%	12.1%
Green	3,203	6.5%	7.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	719	1.5%	4.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

31%

LAB

16%

Reform

52%

LIB

Green

OTH

Bromley and Biggin Hill

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Peter Fortune (CON)
County/Area:	Bromley (London)
Electorate:	70,713
Turnout:	66.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	15,929	34.0%	31.0%
LAB	15,627	33.4%	24.0%
Reform	8,203	17.5%	24.6%
LIB	4,352	9.3%	11.1%
Green	2,583	5.5%	8.7%
OTH	94	0.2%	0.6%
CON Majority	302	0.6%	6.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

57%

LAB

21%

Reform

21%

LIB

Green

OTH

Bromsgrove

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Bradley Anthony Thomas (CON)
County/Area:	Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	76,468
Turnout:	65.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,533	32.8%	28.8%
LAB	13,517	26.8%	18.8%
Reform	9,584	19.0%	28.0%
LIB	7,391	14.7%	15.7%
Green	1,675	3.3%	7.0%
OTH	1,561	3.1%	1.5%
MIN	144	0.3%	0.3%
CON Majority	3,016	6.0%	0.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

46%

LAB

Reform

41%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Broxbourne

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Lewis Christopher Cocking (CON)
County/Area:	Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	75,187
Turnout:	57.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	15,810	36.8%	30.7%
LAB	12,952	30.2%	18.7%
Reform	8,782	20.4%	31.8%
LIB	2,688	6.3%	9.3%
Green	2,461	5.7%	8.6%
OTH	259	0.6%	0.9%
CON Majority	2,858	6.7%	1.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

44%

LAB

Reform

50%

LIB

Green

OTH

Broxtowe

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Juliet Campbell (LAB)
County/Area:	Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	71,923
Turnout:	66.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,561	40.9%	26.5%
CON	11,158	23.3%	20.1%
Reform	8,402	17.6%	29.6%
LIB	3,807	8.0%	11.4%
Green	3,488	7.3%	9.8%
OTH	1,034	2.2%	1.4%
MIN	388	0.8%	1.1%
LAB Majority	8,403	17.6%	3.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

34%

CON

13%

Reform

51%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Buckingham and Bletchley

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Callum Anderson (LAB)
County/Area:	Buckinghamshire (South East)
Electorate:	74,832
Turnout:	63.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,602	36.9%	26.3%
CON	15,181	31.9%	25.6%
Reform	7,468	15.7%	27.2%
LIB	4,300	9.0%	11.8%
Green	2,590	5.4%	8.0%
OTH	500	1.0%	1.1%
LAB Majority	2,421	5.1%	0.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

32%

CON

30%

Reform

37%

LIB

Green

OTH

Buckinghamshire Mid

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Greg Smith (CON)
County/Area:	Buckinghamshire (South East)
Electorate:	75,415
Turnout:	71.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,150	37.3%	29.7%
LIB	14,278	26.5%	23.6%
LAB	9,171	17.0%	14.0%
Reform	6,926	12.8%	24.1%
Green	2,942	5.5%	7.9%
OTH	484	0.9%	0.7%
CON Majority	5,872	10.9%	5.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

52%

LIB

23%

LAB

Reform

22%

Green

OTH

Burnley

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Oliver Ryan (LAB)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	74,951
Turnout:	53.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	12,598	31.7%	22.0%
LIB	9,178	23.1%	18.9%
CON	8,058	20.3%	19.1%
Reform	7,755	19.5%	31.9%
Green	1,518	3.8%	6.4%
OTH	612	1.5%	1.6%
LAB Majority	3,420	8.6%	9.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

17%

LIB

CON

10%

Reform

66%

Green

OTH

Burton and Uttoxeter

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Jacob Collier (LAB)
County/Area:	Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	77,994
Turnout:	58.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,222	35.6%	21.6%
CON	13,956	30.6%	27.0%
Reform	9,611	21.1%	31.8%
Green	2,119	4.6%	8.1%
MIN	2,056	4.5%	3.9%
LIB	1,663	3.6%	7.7%
LAB Majority	2,266	5.0%	4.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

12%

CON

30%

Reform

58%

Green

MIN

LIB

Bury North

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	James Frith (LAB)
County/Area:	Western Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	77,703
Turnout:	58.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,625	43.1%	26.8%
CON	12,681	27.9%	23.5%
Reform	7,385	16.2%	30.1%
MIN	1,917	4.2%	3.9%
Green	1,747	3.8%	7.0%
LIB	1,317	2.9%	7.9%
OTH	848	1.9%	0.9%
LAB Majority	6,944	15.3%	3.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

31%

CON

20%

Reform

49%

MIN

Green

LIB

OTH

Bury South

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Christian Wakeford (LAB)
County/Area:	Western Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	75,339
Turnout:	56.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,247	45.6%	28.1%
CON	9,886	23.4%	20.1%
Reform	6,865	16.3%	30.1%
Green	2,715	6.4%	9.3%
LIB	1,796	4.3%	8.8%
MIN	1,023	2.4%	2.7%
OTH	682	1.6%	0.9%
LAB Majority	9,361	22.2%	2.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

39%

CON

Reform

51%

Green

LIB

MIN

OTH

Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Peter Prinsley (LAB)
County/Area:	Suffolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	77,599
Turnout:	65.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,745	32.9%	21.9%
CON	15,293	30.0%	25.4%
Reform	8,595	16.9%	27.4%
Green	5,761	11.3%	13.4%
LIB	3,154	6.2%	10.6%
OTH	1,345	2.6%	1.3%
LAB Majority	1,452	2.9%	2.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

18%

CON

35%

Reform

44%

Green

LIB

OTH