South East: Majority Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 54.6%73 50.7%02-271
LAB 28.6%8 26.6%20+210
LIB 10.5%2 12.7%00+02
UKIP 2.3%0 3.9%00+00
Green 3.1%1 4.0%00+01
Minor 1.0%0 2.1%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Oxford East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Buckingham, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Basingstoke (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Portsmouth South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
58510Oxford East Anneliese Dodds78,36068.818.163.011.41.74.20.00.01.7LABLAB
101467Hove Peter Kyle74,23677.627.762.04.51.72.60.00.01.5LABLAB
108460Slough Tan Dhesi83,27265.227.860.84.73.90.90.00.01.9LABLAB
149419Southampton Test Alan Whitehead70,19466.830.356.56.31.70.90.01.72.6LABLAB
169399Brighton Kemptown Lloyd Russell-Moyle67,89372.534.456.25.21.70.90.00.01.6LABLAB
223344Brighton Pavilion Caroline Lucas75,48676.415.524.62.22.753.10.00.01.8GreenGreen
226342Reading East Matt Rodda75,52273.138.446.98.41.72.90.00.01.8LABLAB
237331Portsmouth South Stephen Morgan69,78563.933.738.919.54.22.50.00.01.2LABLAB
253315Canterbury Rosie Duffield78,13772.740.842.910.31.73.20.00.01.2LABLAB
256312Southampton Itchen Royston Smith71,71665.242.744.35.34.12.50.00.01.2CONLAB
261307Hastings and Rye Amber Rudd78,29869.943.044.15.74.40.90.00.01.9CONLAB
274294Milton Keynes South Iain Stewart92,49469.743.742.75.24.52.70.00.01.2CONCON
279289Milton Keynes North Mark Lancaster89,27271.543.642.36.23.82.60.00.01.4CONCON
291277Crawley Henry Smith73,42468.546.743.56.01.70.90.00.01.2CONCON
292276Reading West Alok Sharma74,51869.545.141.28.11.72.80.00.01.2CONCON
308260Worthing East and Shoreham Tim Loughton75,54370.345.137.17.04.43.30.01.12.0CONCON
320248Wycombe Steve Baker77,08969.446.235.610.03.93.10.00.01.2CONCON
321247Dover Charlie Elphicke74,56469.748.537.84.85.02.70.00.01.2CONCON
322246Thanet South Craig Mackinlay72,34268.846.935.85.37.72.50.00.01.8CONCON
339229Basingstoke Maria Miller81,87368.348.933.78.34.72.90.00.01.6CONCON
348220Rochester and Strood Kelly Tolhurst82,70265.050.533.94.57.02.40.00.01.7CONCON
351217Gravesham Adam Holloway72,94867.251.734.34.75.22.40.00.01.6CONCON
354214Gillingham and Rainham Rehman Chishti72,09367.851.634.05.16.02.00.00.01.4CONCON
360208Banbury Victoria Prentis83,81873.450.431.97.94.22.90.00.02.7CONCON
366202Portsmouth North Penny Mordaunt71,37466.150.931.57.85.72.60.00.01.5CONCON
371197Worthing West Peter Bottomley77,77770.151.531.07.74.73.90.00.01.2CONCON
372196Thanet North Roger Gale72,65766.552.431.85.56.22.60.00.01.4CONCON
379189Chatham and Aylesford Tracey Crouch70,41963.753.231.54.76.62.20.00.01.8CONCON
380188Aldershot Leo Docherty76,20564.251.229.49.75.33.10.00.01.2CONCON
388180Dartford Gareth Johnson78,50669.153.731.14.96.42.40.00.01.6CONCON
394174Aylesbury David Lidington82,54671.251.227.811.93.93.00.00.02.2CONCON
403165Folkestone and Hythe Damian Collins84,09070.050.826.39.46.05.20.00.02.2CONCON
405163Spelthorne Kwasi Kwarteng72,64169.053.428.37.86.23.10.00.01.2CONCON
411157Wantage Ed Vaizey87,73572.550.324.716.83.73.30.00.01.2CONCON
420148Isle of Wight Bob Seely110,69767.347.420.85.94.218.30.02.11.2CONCON
422146Bracknell Phillip Lee79,19970.655.028.09.74.40.90.00.02.0CONCON
426141Oxford West and Abingdon Layla Moran79,28975.738.511.245.72.70.80.00.01.0LIBLIB
427141Ashford Damian Green87,39668.555.127.67.45.43.30.00.01.2CONCON
432136Sittingbourne and Sheppey Gordon Henderson81,71562.956.328.45.01.72.00.04.22.5CONCON
438130Woking Jonathan Lord76,17072.550.321.719.83.82.90.00.01.5CONCON
441127Tunbridge Wells Greg Clark75,13872.153.124.412.14.43.60.00.02.5CONCON
443125Eastleigh Mims Davies81,21370.546.617.827.94.22.20.00.01.2CONCON
446122Wokingham John Redwood79,87974.752.823.018.21.73.20.00.01.2CONCON
449119Sussex Mid Nicholas Soames83,74773.653.122.815.03.73.50.00.01.9CONCON
457111Reigate Crispin Blunt74,62872.153.622.513.24.55.00.00.01.2CONCON
47098Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Nick Gibb75,82767.755.122.78.85.32.80.04.11.2CONCON
47296Maidstone and The Weald Helen Grant75,33468.652.519.918.64.82.60.00.01.5CONCON
47593Havant Alan Mak72,46463.955.923.18.36.03.30.00.03.3CONCON
47791Epsom and Ewell Chris Grayling80,02974.155.722.914.71.73.80.00.01.2CONCON
47790Eastbourne Stephen Lloyd78,75472.940.27.348.71.31.60.00.00.9LIBLIB
47989Gosport Caroline Dinenage73,88667.058.125.07.05.33.00.00.01.7CONCON
48385Witney Robert Courts82,72773.651.718.522.73.32.60.00.01.2CONCON
48583Runnymede and Weybridge Philip Hammond74,88768.957.123.89.64.93.50.00.01.2CONCON
48682Faversham and Kent Mid Helen Whately76,00865.557.223.98.85.13.80.00.01.2CONCON
49573Guildford Anne Milton75,45473.650.716.926.11.63.00.00.01.6CONCON
50365Bexhill and Battle Huw Merriman78,51275.758.122.59.85.03.30.00.01.2CONCON
50563Lewes Maria Caulfield70,94776.445.610.041.21.40.80.00.01.0CONCON
50959Chichester Gillian Keegan84,99670.556.320.213.54.44.20.00.01.3CONCON
51256Fareham Suella Fernandes79,49571.759.123.09.14.43.20.00.01.2CONCON
51355Horsham Jeremy Quin82,77374.955.719.514.64.13.90.00.02.2CONCON
51454Romsey and Southampton North Caroline Nokes67,18674.753.317.123.51.62.80.00.01.7CONCON
52048Hampshire North West Kit Malthouse81,43072.258.221.312.04.23.20.00.01.2CONCON
52147Esher and Walton Dominic Raab80,93873.954.817.519.63.42.70.00.02.0CONCON
52444Henley John Howell74,98776.155.317.917.13.74.20.00.01.9CONCON
52543Wealden Nus Ghani81,42574.357.420.012.64.64.20.00.01.2CONCON
52741Arundel and South Downs Nick Herbert80,76674.658.520.610.24.45.10.00.01.2CONCON
53137Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan71,46577.356.818.415.34.43.90.00.01.2CONCON
53236Surrey East Sam Gyimah82,00472.255.817.212.75.42.80.05.01.2CONCON
53434Winchester Steve Brine72,49778.848.29.436.42.62.20.00.01.2CONCON
53731Tonbridge and Malling Tom Tugendhat77,23473.759.820.28.94.95.00.00.01.2CONCON
53830Windsor Adam Afriyie73,59573.360.520.712.31.73.60.00.01.2CONCON
54325Surrey South West Jeremy Hunt78,04277.451.911.211.83.20.80.020.01.0CONCON
54820Sevenoaks Michael Fallon71,06172.159.918.810.65.44.20.00.01.2CONCON
54919New Forest East Julian Lewis72,60270.858.817.617.41.73.30.00.01.2CONCON
55018Surrey Heath Michael Gove80,53771.860.318.913.11.74.80.00.01.2CONCON
55117Beaconsfield Dominic Grieve77,53472.361.419.310.24.53.40.00.01.2CONCON
55513Maidenhead Theresa May76,27676.460.917.213.53.12.50.00.52.3CONCON
55810Hampshire East Damian Hinds74,14874.759.815.117.31.64.00.00.02.1CONCON
5608Newbury Richard Benyon82,92373.457.612.623.41.53.30.00.01.6CONCON
5617New Forest West Desmond Swayne68,78772.163.017.511.91.73.80.00.02.1CONCON
5626Meon Valley George Hollingbery74,24673.061.916.313.14.33.30.00.01.1CONCON
5635Mole Valley Paul Beresford74,54576.158.012.421.33.93.40.00.01.0CONCON
5644Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena75,47676.461.715.414.33.43.40.00.01.8CONCON
5671Buckingham John Bercow79,61666.261.30.01.49.016.90.010.70.8CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.