South East: Majority Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 54.6%73 50.7%02-271
LAB 28.6%8 26.6%20+210
LIB 10.5%2 12.7%00+02
UKIP 2.3%0 3.9%00+00
Green 3.1%1 4.0%00+01
Minor 1.0%0 2.1%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Oxford East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Buckingham, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Basingstoke (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Portsmouth South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
58510Oxford East Anneliese Dodds78,36068.818.
101467Hove Peter Kyle74,23677.627.762.
108460Slough Tan Dhesi83,27265.227.860.
149419Southampton Test Alan Whitehead70,19466.830.356.
169399Brighton Kemptown Lloyd Russell-Moyle67,89372.534.456.
223344Brighton Pavilion Caroline Lucas75,48676.415.524.62.22.753.
226342Reading East Matt Rodda75,52273.138.446.
237331Portsmouth South Stephen Morgan69,78563.933.738.919.
253315Canterbury Rosie Duffield78,13772.740.842.910.
256312Southampton Itchen Royston Smith71,71665.242.744.
261307Hastings and Rye Amber Rudd78,29869.943.
274294Milton Keynes South Iain Stewart92,49469.743.742.
279289Milton Keynes North Mark Lancaster89,27271.543.642.
291277Crawley Henry Smith73,42468.546.743.
292276Reading West Alok Sharma74,51869.545.
308260Worthing East and Shoreham Tim Loughton75,54370.345.
320248Wycombe Steve Baker77,08969.446.235.610.
321247Dover Charlie Elphicke74,56469.748.537.
322246Thanet South Craig Mackinlay72,34268.846.935.
339229Basingstoke Maria Miller81,87368.348.933.
348220Rochester and Strood Kelly Tolhurst82,70265.050.533.
351217Gravesham Adam Holloway72,94867.251.734.
354214Gillingham and Rainham Rehman Chishti72,09367.851.634.
360208Banbury Victoria Prentis83,81873.450.431.
366202Portsmouth North Penny Mordaunt71,37466.150.931.
371197Worthing West Peter Bottomley77,77770.151.531.
372196Thanet North Roger Gale72,65766.552.431.
379189Chatham and Aylesford Tracey Crouch70,41963.753.
380188Aldershot Leo Docherty76,20564.
388180Dartford Gareth Johnson78,50669.153.731.
394174Aylesbury David Lidington82,54671.251.227.811.
403165Folkestone and Hythe Damian Collins84,09070.050.826.
405163Spelthorne Kwasi Kwarteng72,64169.053.428.
411157Wantage Ed Vaizey87,73572.550.324.716.
420148Isle of Wight Bob Seely110,69767.347.420.
422146Bracknell Phillip Lee79,19970.655.
426141Oxford West and Abingdon Layla Moran79,28975.738.511.
427141Ashford Damian Green87,39668.555.
432136Sittingbourne and Sheppey Gordon Henderson81,71562.956.328.
438130Woking Jonathan Lord76,17072.550.321.719.
441127Tunbridge Wells Greg Clark75,13872.153.124.412.
443125Eastleigh Mims Davies81,21370.546.617.827.
446122Wokingham John Redwood79,87974.752.823.
449119Sussex Mid Nicholas Soames83,74773.653.122.815.
457111Reigate Crispin Blunt74,62872.153.622.513.
47098Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Nick Gibb75,82767.755.
47296Maidstone and The Weald Helen Grant75,33468.652.519.918.
47593Havant Alan Mak72,46463.955.923.
47791Epsom and Ewell Chris Grayling80,02974.155.722.914.
47790Eastbourne Stephen Lloyd78,75472.940.27.348.
47989Gosport Caroline Dinenage73,88667.
48385Witney Robert Courts82,72773.651.718.522.
48583Runnymede and Weybridge Philip Hammond74,88768.957.
48682Faversham and Kent Mid Helen Whately76,00865.557.
49573Guildford Anne Milton75,45473.650.716.926.
50365Bexhill and Battle Huw Merriman78,51275.758.
50563Lewes Maria Caulfield70,94776.445.610.
50959Chichester Gillian Keegan84,99670.556.320.
51256Fareham Suella Fernandes79,49571.759.
51355Horsham Jeremy Quin82,77374.955.719.514.
51454Romsey and Southampton North Caroline Nokes67,18674.753.317.
52048Hampshire North West Kit Malthouse81,43072.258.221.312.
52147Esher and Walton Dominic Raab80,93873.954.817.519.
52444Henley John Howell74,98776.155.317.917.
52543Wealden Nus Ghani81,42574.357.420.
52741Arundel and South Downs Nick Herbert80,76674.658.520.610.
53137Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan71,46577.356.818.415.
53236Surrey East Sam Gyimah82,00472.255.817.
53434Winchester Steve Brine72,49778.848.29.436.
53731Tonbridge and Malling Tom Tugendhat77,23473.759.820.
53830Windsor Adam Afriyie73,59573.360.520.712.
54325Surrey South West Jeremy Hunt78,04277.451.911.
54820Sevenoaks Michael Fallon71,06172.159.918.810.
54919New Forest East Julian Lewis72,60270.858.817.617.
55018Surrey Heath Michael Gove80,53771.860.318.913.
55117Beaconsfield Dominic Grieve77,53472.361.419.310.
55513Maidenhead Theresa May76,27676.460.917.
55810Hampshire East Damian Hinds74,14874.759.815.
5608Newbury Richard Benyon82,92373.457.612.623.
5617New Forest West Desmond Swayne68,78772.163.017.511.
5626Meon Valley George Hollingbery74,24673.061.916.313.
5635Mole Valley Paul Beresford74,54576.158.012.421.
5644Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena75,47676.461.715.414.
5671Buckingham John Bercow79,61666.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.