South East: Majority Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 54.6%73 50.2%10+174
LAB 28.6%8 22.4%01-17
LIB 10.5%2 12.8%00+02
UKIP 2.3%0 5.6%00+00
Green 3.1%1 5.3%00+01
Minor 1.0%0 3.8%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Oxford East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Buckingham, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Basingstoke (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Portsmouth South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
58513Oxford East Anneliese Dodds78,36068.817.558.611.
101470Hove Peter Kyle74,23677.627.
109462Slough Tan Dhesi83,27265.
149422Southampton Test Alan Whitehead70,19466.829.752.
170401Brighton Kemptown Lloyd Russell-Moyle67,89372.533.951.
226344Brighton Pavilion Caroline Lucas75,48676.415.
227344Reading East Matt Rodda75,52273.137.842.
239332Portsmouth South Stephen Morgan69,78563.933.134.519.
256315Canterbury Rosie Duffield78,13772.740.338.410.
257314Southampton Itchen Royston Smith71,71665.
262309Hastings and Rye Amber Rudd78,29869.942.539.
278293Milton Keynes South Iain Stewart92,49469.743.
281290Milton Keynes North Mark Lancaster89,27271.543.
291280Crawley Henry Smith73,42468.546.
296275Reading West Alok Sharma74,51869.544.536.
310261Worthing East and Shoreham Tim Loughton75,54370.344.532.
321250Wycombe Steve Baker77,08969.445.631.
323248Dover Charlie Elphicke74,56469.748.
324247Thanet South Craig Mackinlay72,34268.846.431.
341230Basingstoke Maria Miller81,87368.348.329.
350221Rochester and Strood Kelly Tolhurst82,70265.
354217Gravesham Adam Holloway72,94867.
356215Gillingham and Rainham Rehman Chishti72,09367.851.
363208Banbury Victoria Prentis83,81873.449.827.
371200Portsmouth North Penny Mordaunt71,37466.150.427.
376195Worthing West Peter Bottomley77,77770.
377194Thanet North Roger Gale72,65766.551.827.
384187Chatham and Aylesford Tracey Crouch70,41963.752.627.
386185Aldershot Leo Docherty76,20564.250.625.
393178Dartford Gareth Johnson78,50669.
399172Aylesbury David Lidington82,54671.250.623.412.
405166Folkestone and Hythe Damian Collins84,09070.050.321.
408163Spelthorne Kwasi Kwarteng72,64169.052.823.
415156Wantage Ed Vaizey87,73572.549.820.316.
415155Oxford West and Abingdon Layla Moran79,28975.738.08.545.
423148Isle of Wight Bob Seely110,69767.346.916.
427144Bracknell Phillip Lee79,19970.654.423.
431140Ashford Damian Green87,39668.554.623.
438133Sittingbourne and Sheppey Gordon Henderson81,71562.955.724.
446125Woking Jonathan Lord76,17072.549.717.319.
447124Tunbridge Wells Greg Clark75,13872.152.520.
448123Eastleigh Mims Davies81,21370.546.013.428.
453118Wokingham John Redwood79,87974.752.218.618.
456115Sussex Mid Nicholas Soames83,74773.652.518.415.
456114Eastbourne Stephen Lloyd78,75472.939.75.548.
465106Reigate Crispin Blunt74,62872.
47596Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Nick Gibb75,82767.754.518.
47893Maidstone and The Weald Helen Grant75,33468.651.915.518.
48388Havant Alan Mak72,46463.955.318.
48586Epsom and Ewell Chris Grayling80,02974.155.218.514.
48982Gosport Caroline Dinenage73,88667.057.520.
49279Witney Robert Courts82,72773.651.
49477Runnymede and Weybridge Philip Hammond74,88768.956.519.
49774Faversham and Kent Mid Helen Whately76,00865.556.719.
50170Guildford Anne Milton75,45473.650.212.726.
50269Lewes Maria Caulfield70,94776.445.17.541.
51259Bexhill and Battle Huw Merriman78,51275.757.618.
51556Romsey and Southampton North Caroline Nokes67,18674.752.712.923.
51655Chichester Gillian Keegan84,99670.555.715.813.
51754Fareham Suella Fernandes79,49571.758.618.
51853Horsham Jeremy Quin82,77374.955.
52348Winchester Steve Brine72,49778.847.
52546Hampshire North West Kit Malthouse81,43072.257.616.912.
52744Esher and Walton Dominic Raab80,93873.954.
52942Henley John Howell74,98776.154.713.517.
53041Wealden Nus Ghani81,42574.356.815.612.
53338Arundel and South Downs Nick Herbert80,76674.657.916.
53635Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan71,46577.356.
53833Surrey East Sam Gyimah82,00472.255.212.912.
54130Surrey South West Jeremy Hunt78,04277.451.38.411.
54229Tonbridge and Malling Tom Tugendhat77,23473.759.
54328Windsor Adam Afriyie73,59573.360.016.312.
55219New Forest East Julian Lewis72,60270.858.213.317.
55318Sevenoaks Michael Fallon71,06172.159.314.410.
55417Surrey Heath Michael Gove80,53771.859.814.513.
55516Beaconsfield Dominic Grieve77,53472.360.814.910.
55912Maidenhead Theresa May76,27676.460.413.
56011Newbury Richard Benyon82,92373.457.09.523.
56110Hampshire East Damian Hinds74,14874.759.211.417.
5629Mole Valley Paul Beresford74,54576.157.59.321.
5656Meon Valley George Hollingbery74,24673.061.312.313.
5665New Forest West Desmond Swayne68,78772.162.413.
5674Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena75,47676.461.111.614.
5701Buckingham John Bercow79,61666.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.