South East: Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 30.6%30 30.6%00+030
LAB 24.5%36 24.5%00+036
LIB 21.9%24 21.9%00+024
Reform 14.0%0 14.0%00+00
Green 6.9%1 6.9%00+01
Other 2.1%0 2.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Hove and Portslade' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Godalming and Ash', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Wycombe (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Southampton Test (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
70464Hove and Portslade Peter Kyle74,06370.112.852.46.08.814.30.05.6LABLAB
85449Oxford East Anneliese Dodds71,84554.812.249.79.00.112.96.110.2LABLAB
121413Portsmouth South Stephen Morgan73,71152.814.548.412.614.78.00.01.8LABLAB
172362Reading Central Matt Rodda73,60061.519.847.78.88.614.20.00.9LABLAB
182352Southampton Test Satvir Kaur65,52054.618.544.59.114.710.02.21.0LABLAB
209325Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven Chris Ward68,78459.220.344.09.90.019.70.06.2LABLAB
241292Brighton Pavilion Sin Berry74,78670.07.627.73.15.455.00.01.1GreenGreen
245289Worthing East and Shoreham Tom Rutland74,73865.725.745.16.514.66.60.01.5LABLAB
248286Hastings and Rye Helena Dollimore75,93960.622.841.65.616.112.50.80.6LABLAB
252282Canterbury Rosie Duffield71,17166.423.041.38.114.412.50.00.6LABLAB
256278Dover and Deal Mike Tapp76,40662.521.739.65.523.86.50.22.6LABLAB
263271Slough Tan Dhesi81,51253.117.333.94.97.84.325.56.3LABLAB
266268Thanet East Polly Billington74,94057.023.639.93.320.110.70.02.3LABLAB
270264Southampton Itchen Darren Paffey68,37955.725.441.57.118.07.30.00.7LABLAB
278256Milton Keynes Central Emily Darlington81,07858.927.142.310.313.16.80.00.4LABLAB
290244Basingstoke Luke Murphy78,48762.429.542.76.512.97.30.01.1LABLAB
305229Milton Keynes North Chris Curtis70,70965.030.242.07.313.47.10.00.0LABLAB
308226Aldershot Alex Baker78,56961.829.040.78.416.94.40.00.6LABLAB
309225Crawley Peter Lamb75,56960.426.838.24.818.55.75.30.6LABLAB
326208Wycombe Emma Reynolds73,84660.425.735.99.610.74.97.55.6LABLAB
330204Gillingham and Rainham Naushabah Khan73,52356.028.237.85.521.45.60.01.5LABLAB
334200Isle of Wight West Richard Quigley55,40661.929.438.68.017.06.70.00.3LABLAB
342192Folkestone and Hythe Tony Vaughan70,05661.726.134.74.024.79.10.01.2LABLAB
348186Worthing West Beccy Cooper77,03866.232.540.25.314.86.40.00.7LABLAB
356178Rochester and Strood Lauren Rae Edwards74,25757.429.336.24.523.45.70.60.4LABLAB
357177Banbury Sean Woodcock73,19365.831.638.39.113.15.40.02.5LABLAB
360174Gravesham Lauren Sullivan73,08859.232.238.43.620.65.20.00.0LABLAB
369165Buckingham and Bletchley Callum Anderson74,83263.731.936.99.115.75.40.01.0LABLAB
371163Chatham and Aylesford Tristan Osborne75,10954.428.633.55.424.56.10.81.1LABLAB
380154Ashford Sojan Joseph76,21261.628.732.55.321.69.30.02.6LABLAB
383151Reading West and Mid Berkshire Olivia Bailey68,78667.732.134.911.013.56.80.01.7LABLAB
386148Dartford Jim Dickson75,42659.031.934.64.921.47.20.00.0LABLAB
391143Portsmouth North Amanda Martin70,44659.033.034.87.320.44.50.00.0LABLAB
394140Earley and Woodley Yuan Yang73,54862.437.839.713.40.07.40.01.6LABLAB
395139Bracknell Peter Swallow71,65661.232.033.710.917.04.90.01.5LABLAB
402132Aylesbury Laura Elizabeth Kyrke-Smith79,16963.128.930.220.913.55.21.00.2LABLAB
404130Sittingbourne and Sheppey Kevin McKenna79,06751.928.329.13.425.74.10.09.3LABLAB
415119Havant Alan Mak72,34658.330.830.67.823.66.80.50.0CONCON
430104Faversham and Kent Mid Helen Whately74,30162.731.828.68.921.29.10.00.4CONCON
433101Spelthorne Lincoln Jopp73,78262.630.427.018.917.95.20.00.6CONCON
43599Maidstone and Malling Helen Grant76,44960.730.526.913.820.18.00.00.7CONCON
43698Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Ali Griffiths77,56561.732.829.110.721.54.60.01.4CONCON
44589Herne Bay and Sandwich Roger Gale77,84162.735.330.25.621.77.20.00.0CONCON
44687Oxford West and Abingdon Layla Moran71,31864.518.513.050.99.17.00.01.4LIBLIB
44787Bexhill and Battle Kieran Mullan72,20966.134.028.37.416.76.20.07.4CONCON
45084Reigate Rebecca Paul77,10168.935.429.412.713.68.80.00.0CONCON
45381Hampshire North West Kit Malthouse78,62964.635.028.515.015.25.40.00.9CONCON
46964Sussex Mid Alison Bennett75,96970.227.217.639.711.13.80.00.6LIBLIB
48549New Forest West Desmond Swayne68,64467.535.423.317.716.46.00.01.1CONCON
48648Fareham and Waterlooville Suella Braverman77,69164.535.022.919.018.14.10.00.8CONCON
48747Isle of Wight East Joe Robertson55,85561.030.618.410.420.918.50.01.2CONCON
48944Bicester and Woodstock Calum Alexander Miller74,35067.528.816.438.710.84.80.00.6LIBLIB
49143Gosport Caroline Dinenage73,26160.440.326.69.218.04.40.01.5CONCON
49241Didcot and Wantage Olly Glover80,68967.828.414.739.811.74.90.00.4LIBLIB
49638Windsor Jack Rankin73,33461.736.522.221.210.35.11.43.5CONCON
49935Surrey East Claire Coutinho73,30767.135.620.418.017.16.00.02.9CONCON
50033Epsom and Ewell Helen Maguire77,53070.331.215.338.010.63.20.01.8LIBLIB
50033Eastleigh Liz Jarvis69,96566.331.115.134.413.35.20.01.0LIBLIB
50132Tunbridge Wells Mike Martin78,73868.927.611.443.612.04.30.01.1LIBLIB
50232Weald of Kent Katie Jane Lotte Lam75,98866.739.823.27.820.19.00.00.0CONCON
50330Woking Will Forster72,97766.026.59.249.910.23.80.00.3LIBLIB
50430Sussex Weald Nus Ghani72,89767.534.116.720.218.27.60.03.1CONCON
50529Runnymede and Weybridge Ben Spencer73,61065.638.220.622.413.34.00.01.3CONCON
50826East Grinstead and Uckfield Mims Davies75,38566.838.420.721.70.110.50.08.6CONCON
51123New Forest East Julian Lewis70,61864.038.519.716.016.96.90.02.0CONCON
51221Eastbourne Josh Babarinde72,59262.825.35.952.113.33.10.00.3LIBLIB
51320Chichester Jessica Brown-Fuller78,37466.325.76.149.215.13.50.00.4LIBLIB
51320Lewes James MacCleary76,16669.826.86.750.611.93.50.00.4LIBLIB
51420Hamble Valley Paul Holmes80,53767.136.416.227.515.24.30.00.3CONCON
51519Buckinghamshire Mid Greg Smith75,41571.537.417.026.512.85.50.00.9CONCON
51914Guildford Ze Franklin70,73468.330.08.147.59.14.70.00.5LIBLIB
52014Farnham and Bordon Gregory Stafford75,91869.835.813.833.211.74.70.00.8CONCON
52212Tonbridge Tom Tugendhat72,79969.140.818.68.515.015.10.02.1CONCON
52311Arundel and South Downs Andrew Griffith77,96970.240.217.918.013.510.10.00.3CONCON
5249Winchester Danny Chambers78,28972.928.25.352.58.44.80.00.8LIBLIB
5249Dorking and Horley Chris Coghlan71,85069.531.18.141.913.85.10.00.0LIBLIB
5259Sevenoaks Laura Trott73,70867.736.713.625.918.74.10.01.0CONCON
5258Witney Charlie Maynard75,44867.032.69.441.212.53.30.01.0LIBLIB
5268Beaconsfield Joy Morrissey72,75165.638.815.127.412.74.10.01.9CONCON
5267Horsham John Milne79,15070.134.510.839.011.03.90.00.9LIBLIB
5276Esher and Walton Monica Harding74,04272.830.35.352.68.92.60.00.4LIBLIB
5285Wokingham Clive Jones75,08271.932.26.747.79.83.60.00.0LIBLIB
5285Maidenhead Joshua Peter Reynolds75,68766.537.711.443.60.04.00.03.3LIBLIB
5285Surrey Heath Al Pinkerton71,93466.433.06.644.813.12.40.00.2LIBLIB
5285Henley and Thame Freddie Van Mierlo73,74972.133.26.745.09.83.80.01.5LIBLIB
5304Hampshire East Damian Hinds71,96569.637.09.934.412.94.80.01.0CONCON
5303Newbury Lee Raymond James Dillon71,98668.035.37.540.211.05.50.00.6LIBLIB
5312Hampshire North East Alex Brewer76,97572.237.09.138.112.02.60.01.2LIBLIB
5312Chesham and Amersham Sarah Green74,88972.734.86.444.99.83.10.90.2LIBLIB
5322Romsey and Southampton North Caroline Nokes71,87169.639.89.335.411.43.80.00.4CONCON
5331Godalming and Ash Jeremy Hunt74,16873.742.65.041.08.82.30.00.3CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.