South East: Majority Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party	2017 Votes	2017 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	54.6%	73	50.2%	1	0	+1	74
LAB	28.6%	8	22.4%	0	1	-1	7
LIB	10.5%	2	12.8%	0	0	+0	2
UKIP	2.3%	0	5.6%	0	0	+0	0
Green	3.1%	1	5.3%	0	0	+0	1
Minor	1.0%	0	3.8%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Oxford East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Buckingham, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Basingstoke (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Portsmouth South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2017	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	UKIP %	Green %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2017 Win	Pred Win
58	513	Oxford East	Anneliese Dodds	78,360	68.8	17.5	58.6	11.4	3.5	5.5	0.0	0.0	3.4	LAB	LAB
101	470	Hove	Peter Kyle	74,236	77.6	27.2	57.6	4.6	3.5	3.9	0.0	0.0	3.3	LAB	LAB
109	462	Slough	Tan Dhesi	83,272	65.2	27.2	56.4	4.7	5.7	2.2	0.0	0.0	3.7	LAB	LAB
149	422	Southampton Test	Alan Whitehead	70,194	66.8	29.7	52.1	6.4	3.5	2.2	0.0	1.7	4.4	LAB	LAB
170	401	Brighton Kemptown	Lloyd Russell-Moyle	67,893	72.5	33.9	51.8	5.3	3.5	2.2	0.0	0.0	3.4	LAB	LAB
226	344	Brighton Pavilion	Caroline Lucas	75,486	76.4	15.0	20.2	2.3	4.5	54.5	0.0	0.0	3.5	Green	Green
227	344	Reading East	Matt Rodda	75,522	73.1	37.8	42.5	8.5	3.5	4.2	0.0	0.0	3.5	LAB	LAB
239	332	Portsmouth South	Stephen Morgan	69,785	63.9	33.1	34.5	19.6	6.0	3.8	0.0	0.0	2.9	LAB	LAB
256	315	Canterbury	Rosie Duffield	78,137	72.7	40.3	38.4	10.4	3.5	4.5	0.0	0.0	2.9	LAB	CON
257	314	Southampton Itchen	Royston Smith	71,716	65.2	42.1	39.9	5.4	5.9	3.8	0.0	0.0	2.9	CON	CON
262	309	Hastings and Rye	Amber Rudd	78,298	69.9	42.5	39.7	5.8	6.2	2.2	0.0	0.0	3.7	CON	CON
278	293	Milton Keynes South	Iain Stewart	92,494	69.7	43.1	38.3	5.3	6.3	4.1	0.0	0.0	2.9	CON	CON
281	290	Milton Keynes North	Mark Lancaster	89,272	71.5	43.0	37.9	6.2	5.7	4.0	0.0	0.0	3.2	CON	CON
291	280	Crawley	Henry Smith	73,424	68.5	46.2	39.1	6.1	3.5	2.2	0.0	0.0	2.9	CON	CON
296	275	Reading West	Alok Sharma	74,518	69.5	44.5	36.8	8.2	3.5	4.1	0.0	0.0	2.9	CON	CON
310	261	Worthing East and Shoreham	Tim Loughton	75,543	70.3	44.5	32.7	7.1	6.2	4.6	0.0	1.1	3.8	CON	CON
321	250	Wycombe	Steve Baker	77,089	69.4	45.6	31.2	10.1	5.7	4.4	0.0	0.0	2.9	CON	CON
323	248	Dover	Charlie Elphicke	74,564	69.7	48.0	33.4	4.9	6.8	4.0	0.0	0.0	2.9	CON	CON
324	247	Thanet South	Craig Mackinlay	72,342	68.8	46.4	31.4	5.4	9.5	3.9	0.0	0.0	3.5	CON	CON
341	230	Basingstoke	Maria Miller	81,873	68.3	48.3	29.2	8.4	6.5	4.2	0.0	0.0	3.3	CON	CON
350	221	Rochester and Strood	Kelly Tolhurst	82,702	65.0	50.0	29.5	4.5	8.9	3.7	0.0	0.0	3.5	CON	CON
354	217	Gravesham	Adam Holloway	72,948	67.2	51.2	29.9	4.8	7.0	3.7	0.0	0.0	3.3	CON	CON
356	215	Gillingham and Rainham	Rehman Chishti	72,093	67.8	51.0	29.6	5.1	7.8	3.3	0.0	0.0	3.2	CON	CON
363	208	Banbury	Victoria Prentis	83,818	73.4	49.8	27.5	7.9	6.1	4.2	0.0	0.0	4.4	CON	CON
371	200	Portsmouth North	Penny Mordaunt	71,374	66.1	50.4	27.1	7.9	7.6	3.9	0.0	0.0	3.2	CON	CON
376	195	Worthing West	Peter Bottomley	77,777	70.1	51.0	26.6	7.8	6.5	5.2	0.0	0.0	2.9	CON	CON
377	194	Thanet North	Roger Gale	72,657	66.5	51.8	27.4	5.6	8.0	3.9	0.0	0.0	3.2	CON	CON
384	187	Chatham and Aylesford	Tracey Crouch	70,419	63.7	52.6	27.1	4.8	8.4	3.5	0.0	0.0	3.5	CON	CON
386	185	Aldershot	Leo Docherty	76,205	64.2	50.6	25.0	9.8	7.2	4.5	0.0	0.0	2.9	CON	CON
393	178	Dartford	Gareth Johnson	78,506	69.1	53.1	26.7	5.0	8.2	3.7	0.0	0.0	3.3	CON	CON
399	172	Aylesbury	David Lidington	82,546	71.2	50.6	23.4	12.0	5.7	4.3	0.0	0.0	4.0	CON	CON
405	166	Folkestone and Hythe	Damian Collins	84,090	70.0	50.3	21.9	9.5	7.8	6.5	0.0	0.0	4.0	CON	CON
408	163	Spelthorne	Kwasi Kwarteng	72,641	69.0	52.8	23.9	7.8	8.1	4.4	0.0	0.0	2.9	CON	CON
415	156	Wantage	Ed Vaizey	87,735	72.5	49.8	20.3	16.9	5.5	4.7	0.0	0.0	2.9	CON	CON
415	155	Oxford West and Abingdon	Layla Moran	79,289	75.7	38.0	8.5	45.6	4.0	1.7	0.0	0.0	2.3	LIB	LIB
423	148	Isle of Wight	Bob Seely	110,697	67.3	46.9	16.4	6.0	6.1	19.6	0.0	2.1	2.9	CON	CON
427	144	Bracknell	Phillip Lee	79,199	70.6	54.4	23.6	9.8	6.2	2.2	0.0	0.0	3.7	CON	CON
431	140	Ashford	Damian Green	87,396	68.5	54.6	23.2	7.5	7.2	4.6	0.0	0.0	2.9	CON	CON
438	133	Sittingbourne and Sheppey	Gordon Henderson	81,715	62.9	55.7	24.0	5.0	3.5	3.3	0.0	4.2	4.3	CON	CON
446	125	Woking	Jonathan Lord	76,170	72.5	49.7	17.3	19.9	5.6	4.2	0.0	0.0	3.3	CON	CON
447	124	Tunbridge Wells	Greg Clark	75,138	72.1	52.5	20.0	12.2	6.2	4.9	0.0	0.0	4.2	CON	CON
448	123	Eastleigh	Mims Davies	81,213	70.5	46.0	13.4	28.0	6.1	3.5	0.0	0.0	2.9	CON	CON
453	118	Wokingham	John Redwood	79,879	74.7	52.2	18.6	18.3	3.5	4.5	0.0	0.0	2.9	CON	CON
456	115	Sussex Mid	Nicholas Soames	83,747	73.6	52.5	18.4	15.1	5.5	4.8	0.0	0.0	3.7	CON	CON
456	114	Eastbourne	Stephen Lloyd	78,754	72.9	39.7	5.5	48.4	2.2	2.3	0.0	0.0	1.9	LIB	LIB
465	106	Reigate	Crispin Blunt	74,628	72.1	53.0	18.1	13.3	6.3	6.3	0.0	0.0	2.9	CON	CON
475	96	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	Nick Gibb	75,827	67.7	54.5	18.3	8.9	7.1	4.2	0.0	4.1	2.9	CON	CON
478	93	Maidstone and The Weald	Helen Grant	75,334	68.6	51.9	15.5	18.7	6.6	4.0	0.0	0.0	3.3	CON	CON
483	88	Havant	Alan Mak	72,464	63.9	55.3	18.7	8.4	7.8	4.7	0.0	0.0	5.1	CON	CON
485	86	Epsom and Ewell	Chris Grayling	80,029	74.1	55.2	18.5	14.8	3.5	5.1	0.0	0.0	2.9	CON	CON
489	82	Gosport	Caroline Dinenage	73,886	67.0	57.5	20.6	7.0	7.1	4.3	0.0	0.0	3.5	CON	CON
492	79	Witney	Robert Courts	82,727	73.6	51.1	14.1	22.8	5.1	4.0	0.0	0.0	2.9	CON	CON
494	77	Runnymede and Weybridge	Philip Hammond	74,887	68.9	56.5	19.4	9.6	6.7	4.8	0.0	0.0	2.9	CON	CON
497	74	Faversham and Kent Mid	Helen Whately	76,008	65.5	56.7	19.5	8.9	6.9	5.1	0.0	0.0	2.9	CON	CON
501	70	Guildford	Anne Milton	75,454	73.6	50.2	12.7	26.1	3.4	4.2	0.0	0.0	3.3	CON	CON
502	69	Lewes	Maria Caulfield	70,947	76.4	45.1	7.5	41.0	2.6	1.6	0.0	0.0	2.2	CON	CON
512	59	Bexhill and Battle	Huw Merriman	78,512	75.7	57.6	18.1	9.9	6.9	4.7	0.0	0.0	2.9	CON	CON
515	56	Romsey and Southampton North	Caroline Nokes	67,186	74.7	52.7	12.9	23.5	3.4	4.1	0.0	0.0	3.4	CON	CON
516	55	Chichester	Gillian Keegan	84,996	70.5	55.7	15.8	13.6	6.2	5.6	0.0	0.0	3.1	CON	CON
517	54	Fareham	Suella Fernandes	79,495	71.7	58.6	18.6	9.2	6.2	4.5	0.0	0.0	2.9	CON	CON
518	53	Horsham	Jeremy Quin	82,773	74.9	55.1	15.1	14.7	6.0	5.2	0.0	0.0	4.0	CON	CON
523	48	Winchester	Steve Brine	72,497	78.8	47.6	7.1	36.2	3.7	3.1	0.0	0.0	2.4	CON	CON
525	46	Hampshire North West	Kit Malthouse	81,430	72.2	57.6	16.9	12.0	6.0	4.5	0.0	0.0	2.9	CON	CON
527	44	Esher and Walton	Dominic Raab	80,938	73.9	54.2	13.2	19.6	5.2	4.0	0.0	0.0	3.8	CON	CON
529	42	Henley	John Howell	74,987	76.1	54.7	13.5	17.2	5.5	5.5	0.0	0.0	3.6	CON	CON
530	41	Wealden	Nus Ghani	81,425	74.3	56.8	15.6	12.7	6.5	5.5	0.0	0.0	2.9	CON	CON
533	38	Arundel and South Downs	Nick Herbert	80,766	74.6	57.9	16.1	10.3	6.3	6.5	0.0	0.0	2.9	CON	CON
536	35	Chesham and Amersham	Cheryl Gillan	71,465	77.3	56.2	14.0	15.3	6.2	5.2	0.0	0.0	2.9	CON	CON
538	33	Surrey East	Sam Gyimah	82,004	72.2	55.2	12.9	12.8	7.2	4.0	0.0	5.0	2.9	CON	CON
541	30	Surrey South West	Jeremy Hunt	78,042	77.4	51.3	8.4	11.7	4.5	1.7	0.0	20.0	2.3	CON	CON
542	29	Tonbridge and Malling	Tom Tugendhat	77,234	73.7	59.2	15.8	9.0	6.7	6.3	0.0	0.0	2.9	CON	CON
543	28	Windsor	Adam Afriyie	73,595	73.3	60.0	16.3	12.4	3.5	4.9	0.0	0.0	2.9	CON	CON
552	19	New Forest East	Julian Lewis	72,602	70.8	58.2	13.3	17.5	3.5	4.7	0.0	0.0	2.9	CON	CON
553	18	Sevenoaks	Michael Fallon	71,061	72.1	59.3	14.4	10.7	7.2	5.5	0.0	0.0	2.9	CON	CON
554	17	Surrey Heath	Michael Gove	80,537	71.8	59.8	14.5	13.2	3.5	6.1	0.0	0.0	2.9	CON	CON
555	16	Beaconsfield	Dominic Grieve	77,534	72.3	60.8	14.9	10.3	6.4	4.7	0.0	0.0	2.9	CON	CON
559	12	Maidenhead	Theresa May	76,276	76.4	60.4	13.0	13.5	4.9	3.7	0.0	0.5	4.0	CON	CON
560	11	Newbury	Richard Benyon	82,923	73.4	57.0	9.5	23.3	2.9	4.4	0.0	0.0	2.9	CON	CON
561	10	Hampshire East	Damian Hinds	74,148	74.7	59.2	11.4	17.3	3.2	5.2	0.0	0.0	3.7	CON	CON
562	9	Mole Valley	Paul Beresford	74,545	76.1	57.5	9.3	21.2	5.2	4.4	0.0	0.0	2.4	CON	CON
565	6	Meon Valley	George Hollingbery	74,246	73.0	61.3	12.3	13.1	6.0	4.5	0.0	0.0	2.8	CON	CON
566	5	New Forest West	Desmond Swayne	68,787	72.1	62.4	13.2	11.9	3.4	5.1	0.0	0.0	3.9	CON	CON
567	4	Hampshire North East	Ranil Jayawardena	75,476	76.4	61.1	11.6	14.3	5.0	4.6	0.0	0.0	3.3	CON	CON
570	1	Buckingham	John Bercow	79,616	66.2	60.7	0.0	0.9	9.3	17.2	0.0	10.7	1.2	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.