South East: Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 30.6%30 23.4%118-1713
LAB 24.5%36 15.9%029-297
LIB 21.9%24 20.1%11+024
Reform 14.0%0 28.2%460+4646
Green 6.9%1 8.5%00+01
Other 2.1%0 3.9%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Hove and Portslade' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Godalming and Ash', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Godalming and Ash (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Hove and Portslade (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
36120Hove and Portslade Peter Kyle74,06370.18.834.710.222.117.60.06.5LABLAB
49107Oxford East Anneliese Dodds71,84554.88.731.012.717.116.34.89.4LABLAB
7283Portsmouth South Stephen Morgan73,71152.811.830.412.530.410.80.04.1LABReform
8472Reading Central Matt Rodda73,60061.515.931.911.821.715.70.03.1LABLAB
9462Worthing East and Shoreham Tom Rutland74,73865.717.131.89.630.18.30.03.1LABLAB
9759Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven Chris Ward68,78459.215.729.411.117.818.80.07.2LABLAB
9956Hastings and Rye Helena Dollimore75,93960.614.627.88.732.912.81.21.9LABReform
9956Southampton Test Satvir Kaur65,52054.613.726.810.432.411.72.62.3LABReform
10056Canterbury Rosie Duffield71,17166.416.429.411.027.613.10.02.6LABLAB
10154Brighton Pavilion Siân Berry74,78670.06.519.48.014.748.10.03.3GreenGreen
10847Southampton Itchen Darren Paffey68,37955.715.325.99.137.19.80.02.7LABReform
10847Milton Keynes Central Emily Darlington81,07858.918.027.813.428.69.80.02.4LABReform
10946Milton Keynes North Chris Curtis70,70965.020.128.510.629.69.20.02.0LABReform
11045Slough Tan Dhesi81,51253.112.920.19.026.87.318.25.8LABReform
11144Dover and Deal Mike Tapp76,40662.517.523.38.536.98.90.34.7LABReform
11243Wycombe Emma Reynolds73,84660.418.123.914.225.97.65.35.2LABReform
11243Banbury Sean Woodcock73,19365.821.326.611.529.47.40.03.9LABReform
11243Thanet East Polly Billington74,94057.018.522.87.234.612.40.04.6LABReform
11441Buckingham and Bletchley Callum Anderson74,83263.721.424.711.931.87.50.02.8LABReform
11639Basingstoke Luke Murphy78,48762.423.325.410.127.210.60.03.4LABReform
11739Earley and Woodley Yuan Yang73,54862.425.227.016.119.19.50.03.0LABLAB
11738Aldershot Alex Baker78,56961.822.524.311.131.18.10.02.9LABReform
11738Aylesbury Laura Elizabeth Kyrke-Smith79,16963.119.721.218.930.27.21.51.4LABReform
11837Crawley Peter Lamb75,56960.420.621.98.832.79.15.31.7LABReform
11936Isle of Wight West Richard Quigley55,40661.922.222.910.232.79.10.02.9LABReform
11936Gillingham and Rainham Naushabah Khan73,52356.020.220.59.537.58.40.03.8LABReform
11936Folkestone and Hythe Tony Vaughan70,05661.720.120.27.538.010.50.03.6LABReform
12035Worthing West Beccy Cooper77,03866.225.625.29.128.19.00.03.0LABReform
12035Rochester and Strood Lauren Rae Edwards74,25757.420.519.48.740.08.01.32.1LABReform
12035Chatham and Aylesford Tristan Osborne75,10954.419.917.89.040.78.31.32.8LABReform
12035Gravesham Lauren Sullivan73,08859.222.620.38.538.37.80.02.6LABReform
12035Ashford Sojan Joseph76,21261.622.518.88.534.710.90.04.7LABReform
12035Portsmouth North Amanda Martin70,44659.022.618.910.238.37.40.02.7LABReform
12135Reading West and Mid Berkshire Olivia Bailey68,78667.726.122.313.425.39.20.03.7LABCON
12233Dartford Jim Dickson75,42659.023.118.69.636.89.30.02.5LABReform
12233Sittingbourne and Sheppey Kevin McKenna79,06751.919.414.87.042.56.30.010.0LABReform
12233Havant Alan Mak72,34658.321.516.810.540.18.12.01.1CONReform
12233Oxford West and Abingdon Layla Moran71,31864.516.912.038.420.98.30.03.5LIBLIB
12233Sussex Mid Alison Bennett75,96970.220.214.731.825.05.70.02.6LIBLIB
12332Bracknell Peter Swallow71,65661.225.719.913.229.67.90.03.7LABReform
12530Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Ali Griffiths77,56561.723.116.111.938.76.40.03.8CONReform
12530Faversham and Mid Kent Helen Whately74,30162.723.416.511.636.29.50.02.9CONReform
12530Herne Bay and Sandwich Roger Gale77,84162.725.117.39.137.88.10.02.6CONReform
12530Spelthorne Lincoln Jopp73,78262.624.716.717.530.97.40.02.8CONReform
12629Bexhill and Battle Kieran Mullan72,20966.124.716.610.532.47.30.08.5CONReform
12629Didcot and Wantage Olly Glover80,68967.820.412.131.427.16.50.02.4LIBLIB
12728Maidstone and Malling Helen Grant76,44960.724.616.113.832.69.80.03.1CONReform
12728Hampshire North West Kit Malthouse78,62964.625.716.815.930.77.60.03.3CONReform
13026Reigate Rebecca Paul77,10168.929.419.714.723.910.10.02.2CONCON
13025Eastleigh Liz Jarvis69,96566.321.411.627.130.56.50.02.8LIBReform
13025Epsom and Ewell Helen Maguire77,53070.323.013.031.524.45.00.03.2LIBLIB
13124Woking Will Forster72,97766.019.78.939.624.05.70.02.2LIBLIB
13223Eastbourne Josh Babarinde72,59262.817.16.136.432.85.10.02.5LIBLIB
13223Lewes James MacCleary76,16669.819.07.138.228.15.10.02.5LIBLIB
13223New Forest West Desmond Swayne68,64467.526.514.517.431.26.80.03.4CONReform
13223Fareham and Waterlooville Suella Braverman77,69164.525.413.418.133.86.10.03.2CONReform
13322Isle of Wight East Joe Robertson55,85561.023.010.310.836.315.80.03.7CONReform
13322Bicester and Woodstock Calum Alexander Miller74,35067.524.311.430.923.47.10.02.9LIBLIB
13322Gosport Caroline Dinenage73,26160.427.414.311.036.96.50.03.9CONReform
13619Guildford Zöe Franklin70,73468.322.88.537.822.26.30.02.4LIBLIB
13619Winchester Danny Chambers78,28972.921.96.941.321.36.00.02.6LIBLIB
13619Weald of Kent Katie Jane Lotte Lam75,98866.729.414.111.134.28.70.02.5CONReform
13619Tunbridge Wells Mike Martin78,73868.924.18.734.722.86.50.03.3LIBLIB
13719Windsor Jack Rankin73,33461.729.914.420.322.27.21.34.5CONCON
13718Sussex Weald Nus Ghani72,89767.525.910.318.932.07.90.05.0CONReform
13818East Grinstead and Uckfield Mims Davies75,38566.829.113.320.917.210.20.09.2CONCON
13917Surrey East Claire Coutinho73,30767.129.413.517.327.87.30.04.6CONCON
13916Esher and Walton Monica Harding74,04272.823.47.042.320.94.30.02.2LIBLIB
13916New Forest East Julian Lewis70,61864.028.011.615.833.17.40.04.1CONReform
13916Chichester Jessica Brown-Fuller78,37466.322.35.536.227.85.40.02.8LIBLIB
14213Hamble Valley Paul Holmes80,53767.127.610.123.929.56.10.02.8CONReform
14313Runnymede and Weybridge Ben Spencer73,61065.631.513.820.724.76.10.03.3CONCON
14412Buckinghamshire Mid Greg Smith75,41571.529.311.124.725.46.50.03.1CONCON
14610Tonbridge Tom Tugendhat72,79969.130.711.411.429.313.10.04.1CONCON
1479Arundel and South Downs Andrew Griffith77,96970.230.911.518.427.19.30.02.7CONCON
1478Sevenoaks Laura Trott73,70867.728.28.423.531.45.30.03.2CONReform
1488Farnham and Bordon Gregory Stafford75,91869.830.19.928.022.66.40.02.9CONCON
1487Witney Charlie Maynard75,44867.027.26.932.125.05.60.03.3LIBLIB
1487Dorking and Horley Chris Coghlan71,85069.526.76.433.324.86.40.02.3LIBLIB
1487Horsham John Milne79,15070.128.87.931.123.35.90.03.1LIBLIB
1487Wokingham Clive Jones75,08271.927.96.238.319.65.80.02.3LIBLIB
1496Maidenhead Joshua Peter Reynolds75,68766.530.88.934.714.86.10.04.7LIBLIB
1506Beaconsfield Joy Morrissey72,75165.632.310.424.623.45.70.03.6CONCON
1505Hampshire East Damian Hinds71,96569.628.76.729.226.25.90.03.3CONLIB
1505Surrey Heath Al Pinkerton71,93466.427.95.735.024.54.60.02.4LIBLIB
1505Henley and Thame Freddie Van Mierlo73,74972.128.76.136.020.45.40.03.4LIBLIB
1514Hampshire North East Alex Brewer76,97572.229.36.432.524.04.50.03.3LIBLIB
1514Chesham and Amersham Sarah Green74,88972.729.46.335.320.55.21.81.4LIBLIB
1514Newbury Lee Raymond James Dillon71,98668.028.95.831.124.37.10.02.9LIBLIB
1524Romsey and Southampton North Caroline Nokes71,87169.632.26.428.424.45.90.02.7CONCON
1542Godalming and Ash Jeremy Hunt74,16873.735.45.032.820.24.20.02.3CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.