South East: Majority Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party	2017 Votes	2017 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	54.6%	73	50.7%	0	2	-2	71
LAB	28.6%	8	26.6%	2	0	+2	10
LIB	10.5%	2	12.7%	0	0	+0	2
UKIP	2.3%	0	3.9%	0	0	+0	0
Green	3.1%	1	4.0%	0	0	+0	1
Minor	1.0%	0	2.1%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Oxford East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Buckingham, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Basingstoke (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Portsmouth South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2017	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	UKIP %	Green %	NAT %	MIN %	OTH %	2017 Win	Pred Win
58	510	Oxford East	Anneliese Dodds	78,360	68.8	18.1	63.0	11.4	1.7	4.2	0.0	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
101	467	Hove	Peter Kyle	74,236	77.6	27.7	62.0	4.5	1.7	2.6	0.0	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
108	460	Slough	Tan Dhesi	83,272	65.2	27.8	60.8	4.7	3.9	0.9	0.0	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
149	419	Southampton Test	Alan Whitehead	70,194	66.8	30.3	56.5	6.3	1.7	0.9	0.0	1.7	2.6	LAB	LAB
169	399	Brighton Kemptown	Lloyd Russell-Moyle	67,893	72.5	34.4	56.2	5.2	1.7	0.9	0.0	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
223	344	Brighton Pavilion	Caroline Lucas	75,486	76.4	15.5	24.6	2.2	2.7	53.1	0.0	0.0	1.8	Green	Green
226	342	Reading East	Matt Rodda	75,522	73.1	38.4	46.9	8.4	1.7	2.9	0.0	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
237	331	Portsmouth South	Stephen Morgan	69,785	63.9	33.7	38.9	19.5	4.2	2.5	0.0	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
253	315	Canterbury	Rosie Duffield	78,137	72.7	40.8	42.9	10.3	1.7	3.2	0.0	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
256	312	Southampton Itchen	Royston Smith	71,716	65.2	42.7	44.3	5.3	4.1	2.5	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	LAB
261	307	Hastings and Rye	Amber Rudd	78,298	69.9	43.0	44.1	5.7	4.4	0.9	0.0	0.0	1.9	CON	LAB
274	294	Milton Keynes South	Iain Stewart	92,494	69.7	43.7	42.7	5.2	4.5	2.7	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
279	289	Milton Keynes North	Mark Lancaster	89,272	71.5	43.6	42.3	6.2	3.8	2.6	0.0	0.0	1.4	CON	CON
291	277	Crawley	Henry Smith	73,424	68.5	46.7	43.5	6.0	1.7	0.9	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
292	276	Reading West	Alok Sharma	74,518	69.5	45.1	41.2	8.1	1.7	2.8	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
308	260	Worthing East and Shoreham	Tim Loughton	75,543	70.3	45.1	37.1	7.0	4.4	3.3	0.0	1.1	2.0	CON	CON
320	248	Wycombe	Steve Baker	77,089	69.4	46.2	35.6	10.0	3.9	3.1	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
321	247	Dover	Charlie Elphicke	74,564	69.7	48.5	37.8	4.8	5.0	2.7	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
322	246	Thanet South	Craig Mackinlay	72,342	68.8	46.9	35.8	5.3	7.7	2.5	0.0	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
339	229	Basingstoke	Maria Miller	81,873	68.3	48.9	33.7	8.3	4.7	2.9	0.0	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
348	220	Rochester and Strood	Kelly Tolhurst	82,702	65.0	50.5	33.9	4.5	7.0	2.4	0.0	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
351	217	Gravesham	Adam Holloway	72,948	67.2	51.7	34.3	4.7	5.2	2.4	0.0	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
354	214	Gillingham and Rainham	Rehman Chishti	72,093	67.8	51.6	34.0	5.1	6.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	1.4	CON	CON
360	208	Banbury	Victoria Prentis	83,818	73.4	50.4	31.9	7.9	4.2	2.9	0.0	0.0	2.7	CON	CON
366	202	Portsmouth North	Penny Mordaunt	71,374	66.1	50.9	31.5	7.8	5.7	2.6	0.0	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
371	197	Worthing West	Peter Bottomley	77,777	70.1	51.5	31.0	7.7	4.7	3.9	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
372	196	Thanet North	Roger Gale	72,657	66.5	52.4	31.8	5.5	6.2	2.6	0.0	0.0	1.4	CON	CON
379	189	Chatham and Aylesford	Tracey Crouch	70,419	63.7	53.2	31.5	4.7	6.6	2.2	0.0	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
380	188	Aldershot	Leo Docherty	76,205	64.2	51.2	29.4	9.7	5.3	3.1	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
388	180	Dartford	Gareth Johnson	78,506	69.1	53.7	31.1	4.9	6.4	2.4	0.0	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
394	174	Aylesbury	David Lidington	82,546	71.2	51.2	27.8	11.9	3.9	3.0	0.0	0.0	2.2	CON	CON
403	165	Folkestone and Hythe	Damian Collins	84,090	70.0	50.8	26.3	9.4	6.0	5.2	0.0	0.0	2.2	CON	CON
405	163	Spelthorne	Kwasi Kwarteng	72,641	69.0	53.4	28.3	7.8	6.2	3.1	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
411	157	Wantage	Ed Vaizey	87,735	72.5	50.3	24.7	16.8	3.7	3.3	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
420	148	Isle of Wight	Bob Seely	110,697	67.3	47.4	20.8	5.9	4.2	18.3	0.0	2.1	1.2	CON	CON
422	146	Bracknell	Phillip Lee	79,199	70.6	55.0	28.0	9.7	4.4	0.9	0.0	0.0	2.0	CON	CON
426	141	Oxford West and Abingdon	Layla Moran	79,289	75.7	38.5	11.2	45.7	2.7	0.8	0.0	0.0	1.0	LIB	LIB
427	141	Ashford	Damian Green	87,396	68.5	55.1	27.6	7.4	5.4	3.3	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
432	136	Sittingbourne and Sheppey	Gordon Henderson	81,715	62.9	56.3	28.4	5.0	1.7	2.0	0.0	4.2	2.5	CON	CON
438	130	Woking	Jonathan Lord	76,170	72.5	50.3	21.7	19.8	3.8	2.9	0.0	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
441	127	Tunbridge Wells	Greg Clark	75,138	72.1	53.1	24.4	12.1	4.4	3.6	0.0	0.0	2.5	CON	CON
443	125	Eastleigh	Mims Davies	81,213	70.5	46.6	17.8	27.9	4.2	2.2	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
446	122	Wokingham	John Redwood	79,879	74.7	52.8	23.0	18.2	1.7	3.2	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
449	119	Sussex Mid	Nicholas Soames	83,747	73.6	53.1	22.8	15.0	3.7	3.5	0.0	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
457	111	Reigate	Crispin Blunt	74,628	72.1	53.6	22.5	13.2	4.5	5.0	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
470	98	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	Nick Gibb	75,827	67.7	55.1	22.7	8.8	5.3	2.8	0.0	4.1	1.2	CON	CON
472	96	Maidstone and The Weald	Helen Grant	75,334	68.6	52.5	19.9	18.6	4.8	2.6	0.0	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
475	93	Havant	Alan Mak	72,464	63.9	55.9	23.1	8.3	6.0	3.3	0.0	0.0	3.3	CON	CON
477	91	Epsom and Ewell	Chris Grayling	80,029	74.1	55.7	22.9	14.7	1.7	3.8	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
477	90	Eastbourne	Stephen Lloyd	78,754	72.9	40.2	7.3	48.7	1.3	1.6	0.0	0.0	0.9	LIB	LIB
479	89	Gosport	Caroline Dinenage	73,886	67.0	58.1	25.0	7.0	5.3	3.0	0.0	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
483	85	Witney	Robert Courts	82,727	73.6	51.7	18.5	22.7	3.3	2.6	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
485	83	Runnymede and Weybridge	Philip Hammond	74,887	68.9	57.1	23.8	9.6	4.9	3.5	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
486	82	Faversham and Kent Mid	Helen Whately	76,008	65.5	57.2	23.9	8.8	5.1	3.8	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
495	73	Guildford	Anne Milton	75,454	73.6	50.7	16.9	26.1	1.6	3.0	0.0	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
503	65	Bexhill and Battle	Huw Merriman	78,512	75.7	58.1	22.5	9.8	5.0	3.3	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
505	63	Lewes	Maria Caulfield	70,947	76.4	45.6	10.0	41.2	1.4	0.8	0.0	0.0	1.0	CON	CON
509	59	Chichester	Gillian Keegan	84,996	70.5	56.3	20.2	13.5	4.4	4.2	0.0	0.0	1.3	CON	CON
512	56	Fareham	Suella Fernandes	79,495	71.7	59.1	23.0	9.1	4.4	3.2	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
513	55	Horsham	Jeremy Quin	82,773	74.9	55.7	19.5	14.6	4.1	3.9	0.0	0.0	2.2	CON	CON
514	54	Romsey and Southampton North	Caroline Nokes	67,186	74.7	53.3	17.1	23.5	1.6	2.8	0.0	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
520	48	Hampshire North West	Kit Malthouse	81,430	72.2	58.2	21.3	12.0	4.2	3.2	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
521	47	Esher and Walton	Dominic Raab	80,938	73.9	54.8	17.5	19.6	3.4	2.7	0.0	0.0	2.0	CON	CON
524	44	Henley	John Howell	74,987	76.1	55.3	17.9	17.1	3.7	4.2	0.0	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
525	43	Wealden	Nus Ghani	81,425	74.3	57.4	20.0	12.6	4.6	4.2	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
527	41	Arundel and South Downs	Nick Herbert	80,766	74.6	58.5	20.6	10.2	4.4	5.1	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
531	37	Chesham and Amersham	Cheryl Gillan	71,465	77.3	56.8	18.4	15.3	4.4	3.9	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
532	36	Surrey East	Sam Gyimah	82,004	72.2	55.8	17.2	12.7	5.4	2.8	0.0	5.0	1.2	CON	CON
534	34	Winchester	Steve Brine	72,497	78.8	48.2	9.4	36.4	2.6	2.2	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
537	31	Tonbridge and Malling	Tom Tugendhat	77,234	73.7	59.8	20.2	8.9	4.9	5.0	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
538	30	Windsor	Adam Afriyie	73,595	73.3	60.5	20.7	12.3	1.7	3.6	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
543	25	Surrey South West	Jeremy Hunt	78,042	77.4	51.9	11.2	11.8	3.2	0.8	0.0	20.0	1.0	CON	CON
548	20	Sevenoaks	Michael Fallon	71,061	72.1	59.9	18.8	10.6	5.4	4.2	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
549	19	New Forest East	Julian Lewis	72,602	70.8	58.8	17.6	17.4	1.7	3.3	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
550	18	Surrey Heath	Michael Gove	80,537	71.8	60.3	18.9	13.1	1.7	4.8	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
551	17	Beaconsfield	Dominic Grieve	77,534	72.3	61.4	19.3	10.2	4.5	3.4	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
555	13	Maidenhead	Theresa May	76,276	76.4	60.9	17.2	13.5	3.1	2.5	0.0	0.5	2.3	CON	CON
558	10	Hampshire East	Damian Hinds	74,148	74.7	59.8	15.1	17.3	1.6	4.0	0.0	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
560	8	Newbury	Richard Benyon	82,923	73.4	57.6	12.6	23.4	1.5	3.3	0.0	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
561	7	New Forest West	Desmond Swayne	68,787	72.1	63.0	17.5	11.9	1.7	3.8	0.0	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
562	6	Meon Valley	George Hollingbery	74,246	73.0	61.9	16.3	13.1	4.3	3.3	0.0	0.0	1.1	CON	CON
563	5	Mole Valley	Paul Beresford	74,545	76.1	58.0	12.4	21.3	3.9	3.4	0.0	0.0	1.0	CON	CON
564	4	Hampshire North East	Ranil Jayawardena	75,476	76.4	61.7	15.4	14.3	3.4	3.4	0.0	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
567	1	Buckingham	John Bercow	79,616	66.2	61.3	0.0	1.4	9.0	16.9	0.0	10.7	0.8	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.