South East: Majority Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 54.6%73 51.5%00+073
LAB 28.6%8 25.1%00+08
LIB 10.5%2 17.2%00+02
Brexit 0.0%0 0.9%00+00
Green 3.1%1 3.3%00+01
UKIP 2.3%0 0.0%00+00
Other 1.0%0 2.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Oxford East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Beaconsfield, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Basingstoke (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Portsmouth South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Brexit
%
Green
%
NAT
%
UKIP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
49520Oxford East Anneliese Dodds78,36068.819.949.818.13.86.30.00.00.02.1LABLAB
87482Slough Tan Dhesi83,27265.229.852.78.46.52.60.00.00.00.0LABLAB
99470Hove Peter Kyle74,23677.627.747.813.44.54.20.00.00.02.3LABLAB
130438Brighton Pavilion Caroline Lucas75,48676.417.232.90.02.546.80.00.00.00.6GreenGreen
135434Southampton Test Alan Whitehead70,19466.830.245.711.96.23.40.00.00.02.7LABLAB
159410Brighton Kemptown Lloyd Russell-Moyle67,89372.533.144.812.95.93.30.00.00.00.0LABLAB
190379Canterbury Rosie Duffield78,13772.740.548.49.70.00.00.00.00.01.5LABLAB
195374Reading East Matt Rodda75,52273.133.140.615.24.64.30.00.00.02.3LABLAB
213356Portsmouth South Stephen Morgan69,78563.931.336.124.16.20.00.00.00.02.3LABLAB
265304Wycombe Steve Baker77,08969.446.435.313.80.02.30.00.00.02.2CONCON
268300Oxford West and Abingdon Layla Moran79,28975.731.818.744.74.80.00.00.00.00.0LIBLIB
269300Milton Keynes North Mark Lancaster89,27271.548.735.412.90.03.00.00.00.00.0CONCON
272297Reading West Alok Sharma74,51869.549.034.613.60.02.80.00.00.00.0CONCON
274295Hastings and Rye Amber Rudd78,29869.950.635.712.10.00.00.00.00.01.6CONCON
276293Milton Keynes South Iain Stewart92,49469.749.734.811.30.02.90.00.00.01.4CONCON
279290Southampton Itchen Royston Smith71,71665.250.535.311.40.02.70.00.00.00.0CONCON
288281Crawley Henry Smith73,42468.552.535.110.60.01.90.00.00.00.0CONCON
299270Guildford Anne Milton75,45473.636.617.122.80.00.00.00.022.01.5CONCON
303265Eastbourne Stephen Lloyd78,75472.936.416.338.76.30.00.00.00.02.3LIBLIB
308261Worthing East and Shoreham Tim Loughton75,54370.351.430.513.30.03.00.00.00.01.8CONCON
336233Basingstoke Maria Miller81,87368.353.428.713.70.02.60.00.00.01.5CONCON
338231Banbury Victoria Prentis83,81873.454.029.014.10.02.90.00.00.00.0CONCON
345224Wantage Ed Vaizey87,73572.551.024.822.70.00.00.00.00.01.5CONCON
347222Isle of Wight Bob Seely110,69767.357.430.80.00.011.10.00.00.00.7CONCON
349220Woking Jonathan Lord76,17072.550.123.523.60.02.80.00.00.00.0CONCON
352217Tunbridge Wells Greg Clark75,13872.152.625.520.10.00.00.00.00.01.7CONCON
357212Dover Charlie Elphicke74,56469.756.829.510.20.02.20.00.00.01.3CONCON
361208Aylesbury David Lidington82,54671.254.426.716.00.02.90.00.00.00.0CONCON
365204Thanet South Craig Mackinlay72,34268.857.629.310.90.02.20.00.00.00.0CONCON
378191Wokingham John Redwood79,87974.743.514.336.70.03.00.00.00.02.5CONCON
380189Esher and Walton Dominic Raab80,93873.942.713.441.70.00.00.00.00.02.1CONCON
381188Gillingham and Rainham Rehman Chishti72,09367.857.728.410.30.02.20.00.00.01.4CONCON
383186Worthing West Peter Bottomley77,77770.155.726.313.50.03.00.00.00.01.5CONCON
385184Romsey and Southampton North Caroline Nokes67,18674.750.420.928.70.00.00.00.00.00.0CONCON
387182Aldershot Leo Docherty76,20564.256.026.214.90.02.90.00.00.00.0CONCON
395174Sussex Mid Nicholas Soames83,74773.652.422.220.80.02.90.00.00.01.6CONCON
396173Lewes Maria Caulfield70,94776.444.113.938.70.01.70.00.00.01.5CONCON
399170Witney Robert Courts82,72773.652.522.125.40.00.00.00.00.00.0CONCON
400169Buckingham John Bercow79,61666.250.219.717.68.50.00.00.00.03.9CONCON
403166Reigate Crispin Blunt74,62872.153.923.119.00.04.00.00.00.00.0CONCON
406163Eastleigh Mims Davies81,21370.550.419.328.10.02.20.00.00.00.0CONCON
408161Epsom and Ewell Chris Grayling80,02974.153.722.619.10.03.00.00.00.01.5CONCON
411158Winchester Steve Brine72,49778.843.812.541.50.00.00.00.00.02.2CONCON
412157Portsmouth North Penny Mordaunt71,37466.158.226.811.20.02.40.00.00.01.3CONCON
414155Bracknell Phillip Lee79,19970.656.825.314.10.02.20.00.00.01.7CONCON
417152Rochester and Strood Kelly Tolhurst82,70265.059.227.59.70.02.30.00.00.01.3CONCON
418151Gravesham Adam Holloway72,94867.259.828.010.00.02.20.00.00.00.0CONCON
431138Henley John Howell74,98776.153.220.323.10.03.40.00.00.00.0CONCON
439130Thanet North Roger Gale72,65766.560.026.711.20.02.20.00.00.00.0CONCON
440129Runnymede and Weybridge Philip Hammond74,88768.956.723.315.20.03.20.00.00.01.5CONCON
446123Chatham and Aylesford Tracey Crouch70,41963.760.226.79.70.02.20.00.00.01.2CONCON
448121Surrey South West Jeremy Hunt78,04277.453.620.026.50.00.00.00.00.00.0CONCON
450119Folkestone and Hythe Damian Collins84,09070.057.823.913.20.03.50.00.00.01.6CONCON
461108Windsor Adam Afriyie73,59573.355.921.617.80.03.10.00.00.01.5CONCON
463106Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan71,46577.355.020.621.20.03.20.00.00.00.0CONCON
465104Horsham Jeremy Quin82,77374.955.120.619.70.03.00.00.00.01.7CONCON
467102Maidstone and The Weald Helen Grant75,33468.654.920.320.70.02.50.00.00.01.6CONCON
47099Ashford Damian Green87,39668.559.224.512.20.02.80.00.00.01.4CONCON
47495Dartford Gareth Johnson78,50669.161.226.310.40.02.10.00.00.00.0CONCON
47594Spelthorne Kwasi Kwarteng72,64169.059.724.713.10.02.50.00.00.00.0CONCON
47693Chichester Gillian Keegan84,99670.556.221.018.10.03.10.00.00.01.6CONCON
48485Sittingbourne and Sheppey Gordon Henderson81,71562.961.024.810.20.02.10.00.00.01.9CONCON
48584Arundel and South Downs Nick Herbert80,76674.657.321.016.70.03.40.00.00.01.5CONCON
48782Maidenhead Theresa May76,27676.456.920.519.90.02.70.00.00.00.0CONCON
49475Hampshire North West Kit Malthouse81,43072.258.722.016.60.02.70.00.00.00.0CONCON
49772Fareham Suella Fernandes79,49571.759.622.715.00.02.80.00.00.00.0CONCON
49871Faversham and Kent Mid Helen Whately76,00865.559.822.813.10.03.00.00.00.01.4CONCON
49970Newbury Richard Benyon82,92373.453.616.625.40.02.80.00.00.01.6CONCON
50069Surrey Heath Michael Gove80,53771.857.820.718.10.03.40.00.00.00.0CONCON
50168Wealden Nus Ghani81,42574.358.321.217.30.03.20.00.00.00.0CONCON
50861Hampshire East Damian Hinds74,14874.755.918.221.20.03.10.00.00.01.7CONCON
51455Tonbridge and Malling Tom Tugendhat77,23473.759.821.615.00.03.60.00.00.00.0CONCON
51752Mole Valley Paul Beresford74,54576.154.716.324.50.02.90.00.00.01.5CONCON
51851Havant Alan Mak72,46463.961.022.412.20.02.70.00.00.01.7CONCON
52544Gosport Caroline Dinenage73,88667.062.123.212.20.02.50.00.00.00.0CONCON
52841Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena75,47676.457.218.220.10.02.90.00.00.01.6CONCON
52940Bexhill and Battle Huw Merriman78,51275.761.122.014.40.02.50.00.00.00.0CONCON
53237Surrey East Sam Gyimah82,00472.258.819.516.80.02.70.00.00.02.2CONCON
53435New Forest East Julian Lewis72,60270.858.819.217.80.02.70.00.00.01.5CONCON
53633Sevenoaks Michael Fallon71,06172.160.120.315.00.03.10.00.00.01.5CONCON
54029Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Nick Gibb75,82767.762.221.611.90.02.30.00.00.01.9CONCON
54425Meon Valley George Hollingbery74,24673.060.019.018.40.02.60.00.00.00.0CONCON
55019New Forest West Desmond Swayne68,78772.161.719.616.00.02.80.00.00.00.0CONCON
55514Beaconsfield Dominic Grieve77,53472.362.218.00.00.02.30.00.016.31.2CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.