South East: Majority Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 54.6%73 28.8%118-1756
LAB 28.6%8 16.4%42+210
LIB 10.5%2 22.0%70+79
Brexit 0.0%0 21.9%80+88
Green 3.1%1 7.6%00+01
UKIP 2.3%0 1.1%00+00
Other 1.0%0 2.2%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Slough, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Buckingham, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Sittingbourne and Sheppey (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Oxford East (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Brexit
%
Green
%
UKIP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
61392Slough Tan Dhesi83,27265.220.948.812.78.46.91.00.01.2LABLAB
96357Oxford East Anneliese Dodds78,36068.813.436.427.89.210.21.00.02.0LABLAB
130323Hove Peter Kyle74,23677.618.236.818.814.28.81.00.02.2LABLAB
154299Southampton Test Alan Whitehead70,19466.819.335.517.916.57.71.10.01.9LABLAB
182271Brighton Kemptown Lloyd Russell-Moyle67,89372.520.833.316.917.88.01.00.02.1LABLAB
228225Reading East Matt Rodda75,52273.124.629.022.512.78.31.00.01.9LABLAB
243210Southampton Itchen Royston Smith71,71665.224.226.815.223.17.41.30.02.0CONLAB
245207Portsmouth South Stephen Morgan69,78563.920.022.230.815.58.31.20.01.9LABLIB
247206Hastings and Rye Amber Rudd78,29869.924.626.715.223.36.81.20.02.2CONLAB
253200Crawley Henry Smith73,42468.528.529.414.518.66.11.10.01.7CONLAB
255198Milton Keynes South Iain Stewart92,49469.726.727.315.919.27.61.20.02.0CONLAB
255197Brighton Pavilion Caroline Lucas75,48676.412.312.813.28.949.11.20.02.5GreenGreen
257196Milton Keynes North Mark Lancaster89,27271.526.826.617.518.47.61.20.02.0CONCON
260193Canterbury Rosie Duffield78,13772.723.923.423.418.08.01.00.02.2LABCON
262191Reading West Alok Sharma74,51869.526.926.218.318.76.81.10.02.0CONCON
271182Worthing East and Shoreham Tim Loughton75,54370.325.621.917.423.87.71.30.02.3CONCON
274179Wycombe Steve Baker77,08969.429.024.521.115.07.41.10.01.8CONCON
274178Dover Charlie Elphicke74,56469.726.722.113.427.56.61.30.02.2CONBrexit
274178Thanet South Craig Mackinlay72,34268.826.221.413.827.87.11.40.02.3CONBrexit
288165Gravesham Adam Holloway72,94867.229.022.112.226.46.91.40.02.1CONCON
288164Rochester and Strood Kelly Tolhurst82,70265.027.620.613.028.07.21.40.02.2CONBrexit
293160Basingstoke Maria Miller81,87368.327.519.818.823.46.91.30.02.3CONCON
297156Gillingham and Rainham Rehman Chishti72,09367.829.421.113.825.27.01.30.02.1CONCON
297155Portsmouth North Penny Mordaunt71,37466.127.418.915.627.57.01.40.02.2CONBrexit
300153Chatham and Aylesford Tracey Crouch70,41963.728.819.812.827.97.01.50.02.1CONCON
300152Thanet North Roger Gale72,65766.528.018.913.828.96.81.40.02.3CONBrexit
316137Aldershot Leo Docherty76,20564.228.117.819.224.27.31.30.02.2CONCON
317136Worthing West Peter Bottomley77,77770.128.317.817.725.27.51.30.02.2CONCON
320133Banbury Victoria Prentis83,81873.430.019.417.721.87.71.30.02.2CONCON
323130Dartford Gareth Johnson78,50669.130.219.113.127.46.81.40.02.1CONCON
331122Sittingbourne and Sheppey Gordon Henderson81,71562.930.417.913.029.16.11.30.02.1CONCON
332121Folkestone and Hythe Damian Collins84,09070.027.915.317.327.78.01.40.02.3CONCON
334119Aylesbury David Lidington82,54671.230.417.521.520.37.11.20.02.1CONCON
337116Spelthorne Kwasi Kwarteng72,64169.030.017.016.725.87.01.30.02.1CONCON
346106Oxford West and Abingdon Layla Moran79,28975.720.87.451.113.64.70.70.01.8LIBLIB
346106Isle of Wight Bob Seely110,69767.326.012.614.129.014.51.60.02.3CONBrexit
347105Eastleigh Mims Davies81,21370.524.310.834.022.35.51.00.02.0CONLIB
348105Ashford Damian Green87,39668.529.916.316.026.87.31.30.02.3CONCON
350103Wantage Ed Vaizey87,73572.527.813.926.521.27.11.10.02.4CONCON
35597Eastbourne Stephen Lloyd78,75472.920.66.347.219.73.90.70.01.6LIBLIB
36192Bracknell Phillip Lee79,19970.631.016.319.423.06.91.20.02.2CONCON
36290Havant Alan Mak72,46463.929.014.216.229.57.41.40.02.3CONBrexit
36884Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Nick Gibb75,82767.729.814.215.830.26.51.40.02.1CONBrexit
36983Woking Jonathan Lord76,17072.529.714.029.816.76.81.10.02.1CONLIB
37182Maidstone and The Weald Helen Grant75,33468.628.112.226.523.76.31.10.02.1CONCON
37578Tunbridge Wells Greg Clark75,13872.130.414.323.020.87.91.20.02.5CONCON
37776Faversham and Kent Mid Helen Whately76,00865.530.414.417.327.07.21.30.02.4CONCON
38271Gosport Caroline Dinenage73,88667.031.014.715.228.67.01.40.02.2CONCON
38369Lewes Maria Caulfield70,94776.423.26.845.517.94.20.60.01.7CONLIB
38568Sussex Mid Nicholas Soames83,74773.629.713.125.521.46.91.10.02.3CONCON
39162Wokingham John Redwood79,87974.730.413.329.117.46.60.90.02.2CONCON
39360Witney Robert Courts82,72773.628.811.628.721.16.51.00.02.2CONCON
39657Reigate Crispin Blunt74,62872.130.813.523.320.88.21.20.02.3CONCON
40052Guildford Anne Milton75,45473.628.610.535.616.46.10.90.02.0CONLIB
40350Chichester Gillian Keegan84,99670.530.712.422.623.87.11.10.02.3CONCON
40449Runnymede and Weybridge Philip Hammond74,88768.932.714.320.321.77.61.20.02.3CONCON
40548Epsom and Ewell Chris Grayling80,02974.132.013.624.620.16.51.00.02.2CONCON
40845Bexhill and Battle Huw Merriman78,51275.731.913.217.827.26.51.20.02.2CONCON
41043Fareham Suella Fernandes79,49571.732.213.418.825.46.81.10.02.3CONCON
41240Romsey and Southampton North Caroline Nokes67,18674.729.610.732.518.55.90.90.02.0CONLIB
41340Hampshire North West Kit Malthouse81,43072.231.912.820.624.86.51.10.02.2CONCON
41439Horsham Jeremy Quin82,77374.931.111.824.222.96.81.10.02.3CONCON
41538New Forest East Julian Lewis72,60270.830.411.123.026.55.91.00.02.1CONCON
41835Wealden Nus Ghani81,42574.331.612.120.924.97.21.10.02.3CONCON
41933Winchester Steve Brine72,49778.826.26.544.015.94.90.70.01.9CONLIB
42231Arundel and South Downs Nick Herbert80,76674.632.412.320.524.27.21.10.02.4CONCON
42330Henley John Howell74,98776.131.311.026.820.47.21.00.02.3CONCON
42528Esher and Walton Dominic Raab80,93873.932.011.329.417.66.50.90.02.3CONCON
42726Tonbridge and Malling Tom Tugendhat77,23473.733.212.418.425.27.31.20.02.4CONCON
43023Surrey East Sam Gyimah82,00472.232.711.621.624.56.31.10.02.2CONCON
43122Sevenoaks Michael Fallon71,06172.132.911.819.625.46.81.10.02.4CONCON
43221Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan71,46577.332.911.525.619.87.01.00.02.3CONCON
43518Surrey Heath Michael Gove80,53771.833.812.022.222.46.51.00.02.1CONCON
43617New Forest West Desmond Swayne68,78772.133.311.119.326.96.21.00.02.2CONCON
43716Newbury Richard Benyon82,92373.431.08.730.921.15.40.90.02.0CONCON
43815Windsor Adam Afriyie73,59573.335.413.122.719.16.61.00.02.1CONCON
43914Hampshire East Damian Hinds74,14874.732.79.825.722.56.10.90.02.2CONCON
44013Meon Valley George Hollingbery74,24673.033.310.422.424.85.91.00.02.2CONCON
44112Beaconsfield Dominic Grieve77,53472.335.612.520.321.37.01.00.02.2CONCON
4449Mole Valley Paul Beresford74,54576.132.28.529.520.85.90.90.02.2CONCON
4458Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena75,47676.434.89.824.621.56.20.90.02.3CONCON
4467Maidenhead Theresa May76,27676.436.511.624.418.26.40.90.02.0CONCON
4476Surrey South West Jeremy Hunt78,04277.437.69.425.419.05.60.80.02.2CONCON
4512Buckingham John Bercow79,61666.238.64.312.225.615.61.20.02.6CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.