South East: Majority Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 54.6%73 40.6%32+174
LAB 28.6%8 17.6%03-35
LIB 10.5%2 22.3%20+24
Brexit 0.0%0 12.5%00+00
Green 3.1%1 4.5%00+01
UKIP 2.3%0 0.8%00+00
Other 1.0%0 1.7%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Oxford East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Buckingham, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Dover (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Brighton Kemptown (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
90457Oxford East Anneliese Dodds78,36068.820.437.624.
100447Slough Tan Dhesi83,27265.228.444.211.610.
139408Hove Peter Kyle74,23677.627.037.418.
159388Southampton Test Alan Whitehead70,19466.828.536.116.911.
193354Brighton Kemptown Lloyd Russell-Moyle67,89372.530.933.916.810.
234313Reading East Matt Rodda75,52273.132.630.
238308Brighton Pavilion Caroline Lucas75,48676.416.513.712.93.950.
259288Portsmouth South Stephen Morgan69,78563.928.923.628.811.
275272Southampton Itchen Royston Smith71,71665.235.528.
281266Hastings and Rye Amber Rudd78,29869.936.427.715.914.
282265Milton Keynes South Iain Stewart92,49469.736.627.816.
287260Milton Keynes North Mark Lancaster89,27271.536.527.317.412.
289258Canterbury Rosie Duffield78,13772.734.225.023.410.
293254Crawley Henry Smith73,42468.538.728.814.313.
296251Reading West Alok Sharma74,51869.537.326.918.
311236Wycombe Steve Baker77,08969.438.124.920.
320227Worthing East and Shoreham Tim Loughton75,54370.338.
337210Dover Charlie Elphicke74,56469.740.623.314.
338209Thanet South Craig Mackinlay72,34268.840.022.614.417.
342205Basingstoke Maria Miller81,87368.339.421.619.
359188Gillingham and Rainham Rehman Chishti72,09367.841.522.214.515.
361186Rochester and Strood Kelly Tolhurst82,70265.041.221.713.417.
366181Banbury Victoria Prentis83,81873.440.921.018.312.
370177Gravesham Adam Holloway72,94867.242.622.212.916.
372175Portsmouth North Penny Mordaunt71,37466.140.820.315.916.
374173Chatham and Aylesford Tracey Crouch70,41963.742.021.113.517.
378168Oxford West and Abingdon Layla Moran79,28975.729.88.749.
382165Aldershot Leo Docherty76,20564.240.519.019.514.
388159Thanet North Roger Gale72,65766.542.520.214.716.
393154Aylesbury David Lidington82,54671.241.318.621.
396151Worthing West Peter Bottomley77,77770.141.919.018.513.
401146Dartford Gareth Johnson78,50669.143.720.213.616.
411136Eastleigh Mims Davies81,21370.536.612.233.613.
414133Wantage Ed Vaizey87,73572.540.115.526.811.
415132Woking Jonathan Lord76,17072.539.915.329.
419128Folkestone and Hythe Damian Collins84,09070.041.616.518.315.
420127Sittingbourne and Sheppey Gordon Henderson81,71562.944.619.513.916.
423123Eastbourne Stephen Lloyd78,75472.932.37.045.711.
424123Bracknell Phillip Lee79,19970.643.218.019.813.
430117Tunbridge Wells Greg Clark75,13872.141.716.123.811.
432115Isle of Wight Bob Seely110,69767.339.213.615.114.514.
434113Spelthorne Kwasi Kwarteng72,64169.043.717.917.
436111Ashford Damian Green87,39668.543.717.816.915.
440107Guildford Anne Milton75,45473.638.
442105Wokingham John Redwood79,87974.741.014.829.
442104Lewes Maria Caulfield70,94776.433.97.645.
446101Sussex Mid Nicholas Soames83,74773.641.414.626.
45493Maidstone and The Weald Helen Grant75,33468.640.813.526.613.
45988Reigate Crispin Blunt74,62872.142.414.923.711.
46384Havant Alan Mak72,46463.943.515.816.916.
46780Witney Robert Courts82,72773.640.913.
46977Winchester Steve Brine72,49778.835.57.744.
47077Romsey and Southampton North Caroline Nokes67,18674.740.112.132.610.
47671Gosport Caroline Dinenage73,88667.045.016.416.
47770Faversham and Kent Mid Helen Whately76,00865.544.615.918.
48067Runnymede and Weybridge Philip Hammond74,88768.944.715.820.812.
48166Epsom and Ewell Chris Grayling80,02974.143.814.925.
48958Esher and Walton Dominic Raab80,93873.942.412.829.
49156Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Nick Gibb75,82767.745.415.616.617.
49453Horsham Jeremy Quin82,77374.943.
49552Chichester Gillian Keegan84,99670.543.813.823.412.
49948Henley John Howell74,98776.142.912.427.610.
50146Fareham Suella Fernandes79,49571.745.714.919.913.
50245Hampshire North West Kit Malthouse81,43072.245.214.321.613.
51037Wealden Nus Ghani81,42574.345.013.322.
51235Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan71,46577.344.612.726.
51334Windsor Adam Afriyie73,59573.346.214.323.410.
51631Arundel and South Downs Nick Herbert80,76674.645.713.621.912.
51730Bexhill and Battle Huw Merriman78,51275.746.514.319.
51829New Forest East Julian Lewis72,60270.844.712.423.613.
51928Newbury Richard Benyon82,92373.442.410.031.410.
52126Tonbridge and Malling Tom Tugendhat77,23473.746.313.819.813.
52324Surrey Heath Michael Gove80,53771.846.013.322.911.
52423Surrey East Sam Gyimah82,00472.245.812.922.413.
52621Sevenoaks Michael Fallon71,06172.146.513.220.613.
52819Hampshire East Damian Hinds74,14874.744.811.226.711.
52918Maidenhead Theresa May76,27676.446.612.824.810.
53116Beaconsfield Dominic Grieve77,53472.347.813.621.
53215Mole Valley Paul Beresford74,54576.144.09.630.311.
53413Meon Valley George Hollingbery74,24673.046.511.823.413.
53710Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena75,47676.446.411.325.611.
5416New Forest West Desmond Swayne68,78772.148.212.320.413.
5425Surrey South West Jeremy Hunt78,04277.448.110.826.910.
5461Buckingham John Bercow79,61666.250.05.813.814.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.