South East: Majority Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Pred Votes	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	54.0%	74	52.2%	+0	74
LAB	22.1%	8	27.6%	+0	8
LIB	18.2%	1	11.8%	+0	1
Brexit	0.3%	0	0.2%	+0	0
Green	3.9%	1	5.2%	+0	1
Other	1.4%	0	3.1%	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Oxford East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Meon Valley, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Aylesbury (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Wycombe (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2019	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Brexit %	Green %	MIN %	OTH %	2019 Win	Pred Win
55	509	Oxford East	Anneliese Dodds	78,303	63.0	19.1	63.0	7.5	1.4	6.2	0.0	2.9	LAB	LAB
75	489	Hove	Peter Kyle	74,313	75.9	26.3	62.0	3.6	1.2	5.2	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
83	481	Slough	Tan Dhesi	86,818	58.8	29.1	61.5	3.5	1.7	2.9	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
126	438	Brighton Kemptown	Lloyd Russell-Moyle	69,833	69.5	33.1	55.3	3.3	1.7	5.4	0.0	1.2	LAB	LAB
134	430	Southampton Test	Alan Whitehead	70,116	64.2	33.8	53.9	4.1	2.1	4.2	0.0	1.9	LAB	LAB
147	417	Portsmouth South	Stephen Morgan	74,186	63.9	35.5	53.8	6.1	1.3	1.1	0.0	2.1	LAB	LAB
161	403	Reading East	Matt Rodda	77,152	72.5	36.1	52.8	4.8	0.9	3.7	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
195	368	Brighton Pavilion	Caroline Lucas	79,057	73.4	15.9	24.2	0.0	0.8	57.5	0.0	1.6	Green	Green
196	368	Canterbury	Rosie Duffield	80,203	75.0	43.4	51.2	3.0	0.0	0.6	0.0	1.8	LAB	LAB
234	330	Wycombe	Steve Baker	78,098	70.1	43.4	42.3	6.4	0.0	3.7	0.0	4.1	CON	CON
242	322	Hastings and Rye	Sally-Ann Hart	80,524	67.4	47.7	45.5	3.9	0.0	0.7	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
245	319	Reading West	Alok Sharma	74,137	68.0	46.6	44.1	4.8	0.0	3.4	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
253	311	Milton Keynes North	Ben Everitt	91,545	68.3	47.6	43.1	4.3	0.0	3.9	0.0	1.1	CON	CON
256	308	Southampton Itchen	Royston Smith	72,299	65.6	48.7	43.8	2.8	0.0	2.8	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
261	303	Milton Keynes South	Iain Stewart	96,363	66.4	48.2	42.6	3.9	0.0	3.1	0.0	2.2	CON	CON
278	286	Worthing East and Shoreham	Tim Loughton	75,194	70.7	49.2	40.5	4.2	0.0	4.6	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
294	270	Crawley	Henry Smith	74,207	67.2	52.4	40.3	2.9	0.0	3.5	0.0	0.9	CON	CON
316	248	Thanet South	Craig Mackinlay	73,223	65.9	54.3	37.1	3.0	0.0	4.7	0.0	0.9	CON	CON
323	241	Basingstoke	Maria Miller	82,928	66.0	52.3	33.1	6.7	0.0	5.0	0.0	2.9	CON	CON
324	240	Banbury	Victoria Prentis	90,116	69.8	52.4	33.0	7.5	0.0	5.3	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
325	239	Dover	Natalie Elphicke	76,355	66.4	55.0	35.6	3.1	0.0	3.3	0.0	3.0	CON	CON
332	232	Aylesbury	Rob Butler	86,665	69.9	52.2	31.6	8.9	0.0	5.3	0.0	2.0	CON	CON
333	231	Worthing West	Peter Bottomley	78,585	69.5	53.9	33.2	5.9	0.0	4.7	0.0	2.3	CON	CON
334	229	Oxford West and Abingdon	Layla Moran	76,951	76.4	36.3	14.8	44.0	0.9	1.7	0.0	2.4	LIB	LIB
344	220	Woking	Jonathan Lord	75,454	71.5	47.1	23.6	21.6	0.0	4.3	0.0	3.4	CON	CON
360	204	Reigate	Crispin Blunt	74,242	71.6	52.1	26.5	10.4	0.0	7.5	0.0	3.4	CON	CON
364	200	Runnymede and Weybridge	Ben Spencer	77,196	69.0	53.1	27.0	9.3	0.0	4.9	0.0	5.6	CON	CON
368	196	Sussex Mid	Mims Davies	85,146	73.7	51.5	25.1	15.0	0.0	5.1	0.0	3.2	CON	CON
370	194	Wantage	David Johnston	90,867	73.9	48.9	22.4	22.6	0.0	1.6	0.0	4.5	CON	CON
375	189	Epsom and Ewell	Chris Grayling	81,138	73.3	51.7	24.4	14.2	0.0	5.0	0.0	4.7	CON	CON
377	187	Aldershot	Leo Docherty	72,617	66.0	56.6	29.1	7.8	0.0	4.9	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
379	185	Rochester and Strood	Kelly Tolhurst	82,056	63.3	58.2	30.5	3.8	0.0	3.3	0.0	4.3	CON	CON
386	178	Gravesham	Adam Holloway	73,242	64.9	60.4	32.3	2.9	0.0	3.6	0.0	0.9	CON	CON
388	176	Guildford	Angela Richardson	77,729	75.5	43.0	14.9	29.9	0.0	1.6	7.4	3.1	CON	CON
389	175	Gillingham and Rainham	Rehman Chishti	73,549	62.5	59.5	31.2	2.9	0.0	2.9	0.0	3.5	CON	CON
392	172	Isle of Wight	Bob Seely	113,021	65.9	54.3	25.5	0.0	0.0	15.5	0.0	4.7	CON	CON
395	169	Portsmouth North	Penny Mordaunt	71,299	64.4	59.5	30.4	4.0	0.0	3.6	0.0	2.4	CON	CON
396	168	Bracknell	James Sunderland	78,978	68.8	56.9	27.7	7.7	0.0	5.1	0.0	2.8	CON	CON
401	163	Spelthorne	Kwasi Kwarteng	70,929	69.8	57.0	27.5	8.1	0.0	5.6	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
402	162	Wokingham	John Redwood	83,953	73.8	47.8	17.6	28.4	0.0	3.8	0.0	2.4	CON	CON
405	159	Folkestone and Hythe	Damian Collins	88,272	66.8	58.3	28.1	5.2	0.0	5.5	0.0	2.9	CON	CON
406	158	Dartford	Gareth Johnson	82,209	65.7	61.1	30.8	3.7	0.0	3.4	0.0	1.0	CON	CON
408	156	Thanet North	Roger Gale	72,756	66.2	60.6	30.1	3.8	0.0	4.5	0.0	1.1	CON	CON
416	148	Tunbridge Wells	Greg Clark	74,823	73.0	53.3	22.0	19.1	0.0	1.6	0.0	4.0	CON	CON
420	144	Witney	Robert Courts	83,845	73.1	53.4	21.5	21.2	0.0	1.6	0.0	2.3	CON	CON
424	140	Eastbourne	Caroline Ansell	79,307	69.5	47.1	14.9	31.8	1.7	1.7	0.0	2.8	CON	CON
429	135	Horsham	Jeremy Quin	86,730	72.9	54.9	22.1	14.1	0.0	5.8	0.0	3.0	CON	CON
432	132	Lewes	Maria Caulfield	71,503	76.7	46.1	13.1	34.1	0.0	4.2	0.0	2.5	CON	CON
433	131	Arundel and South Downs	Andrew Griffith	81,726	75.1	56.1	23.0	12.0	0.0	5.7	0.0	3.2	CON	CON
440	124	Chesham and Amersham	Cheryl Gillan	72,542	76.8	53.6	20.1	17.0	0.0	7.1	0.0	2.3	CON	CON
441	123	Eastleigh	Paul Holmes	83,880	70.3	53.6	20.0	19.7	0.0	4.4	0.0	2.3	CON	CON
445	119	Romsey and Southampton North	Caroline Nokes	68,228	75.3	52.4	18.7	23.8	0.0	1.6	0.0	3.5	CON	CON
447	117	Chichester	Gillian Keegan	85,499	71.6	56.0	22.0	13.5	0.0	5.7	0.0	2.8	CON	CON
449	115	Ashford	Damian Green	89,553	67.1	60.2	26.3	5.4	0.0	5.3	0.0	2.8	CON	CON
453	111	Maidstone and The Weald	Helen Grant	76,109	67.9	58.6	24.4	8.8	0.0	5.6	0.0	2.6	CON	CON
457	107	Windsor	Adam Afriyie	75,038	71.6	56.8	22.4	12.0	0.0	4.9	0.0	3.9	CON	CON
459	105	Winchester	Steve Brine	75,582	77.9	46.5	11.8	37.3	0.0	1.6	0.0	2.8	CON	CON
460	104	Maidenhead	Theresa May	76,668	73.7	55.9	21.2	15.1	0.0	5.5	0.0	2.3	CON	CON
472	92	Esher and Walton	Dominic Raab	81,184	77.7	47.5	11.7	35.7	0.0	1.6	0.0	3.4	CON	CON
473	91	Henley	John Howell	76,646	76.7	53.0	16.9	21.6	0.0	6.2	0.0	2.3	CON	CON
475	89	Surrey South West	Jeremy Hunt	79,096	76.3	51.5	15.1	29.5	0.0	1.6	0.0	2.3	CON	CON
481	83	Buckingham	Greg Smith	83,146	76.3	56.5	19.8	16.9	1.2	1.7	0.0	3.8	CON	CON
482	82	Wealden	Nus Ghani	82,992	73.4	59.0	22.2	10.0	0.0	6.6	0.0	2.2	CON	CON
484	80	Faversham and Kent Mid	Helen Whately	73,403	68.7	61.4	24.5	6.6	0.0	5.2	0.0	2.3	CON	CON
485	79	Surrey East	Claire Coutinho	83,148	71.8	57.9	20.9	10.4	0.0	5.5	0.0	5.4	CON	CON
491	73	Bexhill and Battle	Huw Merriman	81,963	72.1	61.8	24.4	6.6	0.0	5.6	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
493	71	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	Nick Gibb	77,446	66.1	61.7	24.1	5.9	0.0	4.6	0.0	3.8	CON	CON
495	69	Chatham and Aylesford	Tracey Crouch	71,642	60.5	64.8	27.0	3.5	0.0	3.2	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
498	66	Hampshire North West	Kit Malthouse	83,083	70.9	60.3	22.3	9.4	0.0	6.0	0.0	2.0	CON	CON
499	65	Sevenoaks	Laura Trott	71,757	71.0	58.9	20.8	10.7	0.0	5.5	0.0	4.2	CON	CON
504	60	Fareham	Suella Braverman	78,337	73.1	61.9	23.5	7.5	0.0	5.4	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
509	55	Hampshire East	Damian Hinds	76,478	74.4	57.0	18.3	14.9	0.0	6.2	0.0	3.7	CON	CON
519	45	Surrey Heath	Michael Gove	81,349	72.1	56.8	16.4	18.0	0.0	5.4	0.0	3.4	CON	CON
520	44	Tonbridge and Malling	Tom Tugendhat	79,278	71.9	61.0	20.4	8.3	0.0	8.5	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
522	42	Havant	Alan Mak	72,103	63.7	63.6	22.9	6.7	0.0	4.6	0.0	2.3	CON	CON
523	41	Hampshire North East	Ranil Jayawardena	78,954	75.1	57.7	16.9	16.2	0.0	4.5	0.0	4.7	CON	CON
526	38	Newbury	Laura Farris	83,414	71.9	55.6	14.6	21.4	0.0	5.7	0.0	2.8	CON	CON
528	36	Mole Valley	Paul Beresford	74,665	76.5	53.6	12.4	25.1	0.0	4.9	0.0	4.0	CON	CON
533	31	Gosport	Caroline Dinenage	73,541	65.9	64.7	23.1	6.1	0.0	4.7	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
536	28	New Forest East	Julian Lewis	73,549	69.1	62.7	20.4	7.8	0.0	6.0	0.0	3.1	CON	CON
539	25	Sittingbourne and Sheppey	Gordon Henderson	83,917	61.2	65.8	23.0	3.4	0.0	3.0	0.0	4.8	CON	CON
541	23	New Forest West	Desmond Swayne	70,866	71.0	62.0	18.9	8.2	0.0	9.0	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
542	22	Beaconsfield	Joy Morrissey	77,720	74.5	54.3	11.1	0.0	0.0	3.8	29.0	1.8	CON	CON
550	14	Meon Valley	Flick Drummond	75,737	72.4	62.5	17.5	12.1	0.0	5.6	0.0	2.3	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.