South East: Majority Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 54.0%74 52.2%00+074
LAB 22.1%8 27.6%00+08
LIB 18.2%1 11.8%00+01
Brexit 0.3%0 0.2%00+00
Green 3.9%1 5.2%00+01
Other 1.4%0 3.1%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Oxford East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Meon Valley, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Aylesbury (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Wycombe (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Brexit
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2019
Win
Pred
Win
55509Oxford East Anneliese Dodds78,30363.019.163.07.51.46.20.02.9LABLAB
75489Hove Peter Kyle74,31375.926.362.03.61.25.20.01.8LABLAB
83481Slough Tan Dhesi86,81858.829.161.53.51.72.90.01.2LABLAB
126438Brighton Kemptown Lloyd Russell-Moyle69,83369.533.155.33.31.75.40.01.2LABLAB
134430Southampton Test Alan Whitehead70,11664.233.853.94.12.14.20.01.9LABLAB
147417Portsmouth South Stephen Morgan74,18663.935.553.86.11.31.10.02.1LABLAB
161403Reading East Matt Rodda77,15272.536.152.84.80.93.70.01.7LABLAB
195368Brighton Pavilion Caroline Lucas79,05773.415.924.20.00.857.50.01.6GreenGreen
196368Canterbury Rosie Duffield80,20375.043.451.23.00.00.60.01.8LABLAB
234330Wycombe Steve Baker78,09870.143.442.36.40.03.70.04.1CONCON
242322Hastings and Rye Sally-Ann Hart80,52467.447.745.53.90.00.70.02.1CONCON
245319Reading West Alok Sharma74,13768.046.644.14.80.03.40.01.2CONCON
253311Milton Keynes North Ben Everitt91,54568.347.643.14.30.03.90.01.1CONCON
256308Southampton Itchen Royston Smith72,29965.648.743.82.80.02.80.01.9CONCON
261303Milton Keynes South Iain Stewart96,36366.448.242.63.90.03.10.02.2CONCON
278286Worthing East and Shoreham Tim Loughton75,19470.749.240.54.20.04.60.01.6CONCON
294270Crawley Henry Smith74,20767.252.440.32.90.03.50.00.9CONCON
316248Thanet South Craig Mackinlay73,22365.954.337.13.00.04.70.00.9CONCON
323241Basingstoke Maria Miller82,92866.052.333.16.70.05.00.02.9CONCON
324240Banbury Victoria Prentis90,11669.852.433.07.50.05.30.01.7CONCON
325239Dover Natalie Elphicke76,35566.455.035.63.10.03.30.03.0CONCON
332232Aylesbury Rob Butler86,66569.952.231.68.90.05.30.02.0CONCON
333231Worthing West Peter Bottomley78,58569.553.933.25.90.04.70.02.3CONCON
334229Oxford West and Abingdon Layla Moran76,95176.436.314.844.00.91.70.02.4LIBLIB
344220Woking Jonathan Lord75,45471.547.123.621.60.04.30.03.4CONCON
360204Reigate Crispin Blunt74,24271.652.126.510.40.07.50.03.4CONCON
364200Runnymede and Weybridge Ben Spencer77,19669.053.127.09.30.04.90.05.6CONCON
368196Sussex Mid Mims Davies85,14673.751.525.115.00.05.10.03.2CONCON
370194Wantage David Johnston90,86773.948.922.422.60.01.60.04.5CONCON
375189Epsom and Ewell Chris Grayling81,13873.351.724.414.20.05.00.04.7CONCON
377187Aldershot Leo Docherty72,61766.056.629.17.80.04.90.01.8CONCON
379185Rochester and Strood Kelly Tolhurst82,05663.358.230.53.80.03.30.04.3CONCON
386178Gravesham Adam Holloway73,24264.960.432.32.90.03.60.00.9CONCON
388176Guildford Angela Richardson77,72975.543.014.929.90.01.67.43.1CONCON
389175Gillingham and Rainham Rehman Chishti73,54962.559.531.22.90.02.90.03.5CONCON
392172Isle of Wight Bob Seely113,02165.954.325.50.00.015.50.04.7CONCON
395169Portsmouth North Penny Mordaunt71,29964.459.530.44.00.03.60.02.4CONCON
396168Bracknell James Sunderland78,97868.856.927.77.70.05.10.02.8CONCON
401163Spelthorne Kwasi Kwarteng70,92969.857.027.58.10.05.60.01.8CONCON
402162Wokingham John Redwood83,95373.847.817.628.40.03.80.02.4CONCON
405159Folkestone and Hythe Damian Collins88,27266.858.328.15.20.05.50.02.9CONCON
406158Dartford Gareth Johnson82,20965.761.130.83.70.03.40.01.0CONCON
408156Thanet North Roger Gale72,75666.260.630.13.80.04.50.01.1CONCON
416148Tunbridge Wells Greg Clark74,82373.053.322.019.10.01.60.04.0CONCON
420144Witney Robert Courts83,84573.153.421.521.20.01.60.02.3CONCON
424140Eastbourne Caroline Ansell79,30769.547.114.931.81.71.70.02.8CONCON
429135Horsham Jeremy Quin86,73072.954.922.114.10.05.80.03.0CONCON
432132Lewes Maria Caulfield71,50376.746.113.134.10.04.20.02.5CONCON
433131Arundel and South Downs Andrew Griffith81,72675.156.123.012.00.05.70.03.2CONCON
440124Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan72,54276.853.620.117.00.07.10.02.3CONCON
441123Eastleigh Paul Holmes83,88070.353.620.019.70.04.40.02.3CONCON
445119Romsey and Southampton North Caroline Nokes68,22875.352.418.723.80.01.60.03.5CONCON
447117Chichester Gillian Keegan85,49971.656.022.013.50.05.70.02.8CONCON
449115Ashford Damian Green89,55367.160.226.35.40.05.30.02.8CONCON
453111Maidstone and The Weald Helen Grant76,10967.958.624.48.80.05.60.02.6CONCON
457107Windsor Adam Afriyie75,03871.656.822.412.00.04.90.03.9CONCON
459105Winchester Steve Brine75,58277.946.511.837.30.01.60.02.8CONCON
460104Maidenhead Theresa May76,66873.755.921.215.10.05.50.02.3CONCON
47292Esher and Walton Dominic Raab81,18477.747.511.735.70.01.60.03.4CONCON
47391Henley John Howell76,64676.753.016.921.60.06.20.02.3CONCON
47589Surrey South West Jeremy Hunt79,09676.351.515.129.50.01.60.02.3CONCON
48183Buckingham Greg Smith83,14676.356.519.816.91.21.70.03.8CONCON
48282Wealden Nus Ghani82,99273.459.022.210.00.06.60.02.2CONCON
48480Faversham and Kent Mid Helen Whately73,40368.761.424.56.60.05.20.02.3CONCON
48579Surrey East Claire Coutinho83,14871.857.920.910.40.05.50.05.4CONCON
49173Bexhill and Battle Huw Merriman81,96372.161.824.46.60.05.60.01.5CONCON
49371Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Nick Gibb77,44666.161.724.15.90.04.60.03.8CONCON
49569Chatham and Aylesford Tracey Crouch71,64260.564.827.03.50.03.20.01.5CONCON
49866Hampshire North West Kit Malthouse83,08370.960.322.39.40.06.00.02.0CONCON
49965Sevenoaks Laura Trott71,75771.058.920.810.70.05.50.04.2CONCON
50460Fareham Suella Braverman78,33773.161.923.57.50.05.40.01.7CONCON
50955Hampshire East Damian Hinds76,47874.457.018.314.90.06.20.03.7CONCON
51945Surrey Heath Michael Gove81,34972.156.816.418.00.05.40.03.4CONCON
52044Tonbridge and Malling Tom Tugendhat79,27871.961.020.48.30.08.50.01.9CONCON
52242Havant Alan Mak72,10363.763.622.96.70.04.60.02.3CONCON
52341Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena78,95475.157.716.916.20.04.50.04.7CONCON
52638Newbury Laura Farris83,41471.955.614.621.40.05.70.02.8CONCON
52836Mole Valley Paul Beresford74,66576.553.612.425.10.04.90.04.0CONCON
53331Gosport Caroline Dinenage73,54165.964.723.16.10.04.70.01.5CONCON
53628New Forest East Julian Lewis73,54969.162.720.47.80.06.00.03.1CONCON
53925Sittingbourne and Sheppey Gordon Henderson83,91761.265.823.03.40.03.00.04.8CONCON
54123New Forest West Desmond Swayne70,86671.062.018.98.20.09.00.01.8CONCON
54222Beaconsfield Joy Morrissey77,72074.554.311.10.00.03.829.01.8CONCON
55014Meon Valley Flick Drummond75,73772.462.517.512.10.05.60.02.3CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.