| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 30.6% | 30 | 24.4% | 3 | 1 | +2 | 32 |
| LAB | 24.5% | 36 | 20.4% | 0 | 12 | -12 | 24 |
| LIB | 21.9% | 24 | 16.2% | 0 | 2 | -2 | 22 |
| Reform | 14.0% | 0 | 22.7% | 12 | 0 | +12 | 12 |
| Green | 6.9% | 1 | 9.4% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| Other | 2.1% | 0 | 7.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Reform votes. The seat 'Reading Central' where the LAB−Reform difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'New Forest East', where the Reform−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'Reform Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Reading West and Mid Berkshire (prediction: CON), and the Reforms need to win all their seats up to Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | Reform Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 375 | Reading Central | Matt Rodda | 73,600 | 61.5 | 11.5 | 41.3 | 3.8 | 13.0 | 24.7 | 5.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 53 | 372 | Brighton Pavilion | Siân Berry | 74,786 | 70.0 | 5.6 | 34.8 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 46.1 | 5.4 | 0.0 | Green | Green |
| 68 | 358 | Hove and Portslade | Peter Kyle | 74,063 | 70.1 | 11.5 | 40.5 | 4.4 | 15.7 | 20.8 | 7.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 84 | 342 | Oxford East | Anneliese Dodds | 71,845 | 54.8 | 13.3 | 37.3 | 6.7 | 15.6 | 20.7 | 6.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 96 | 330 | Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven | Chris Ward | 68,784 | 59.2 | 14.2 | 36.1 | 5.3 | 15.4 | 23.4 | 5.7 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 139 | 287 | Hastings and Rye | Helena Dollimore | 75,939 | 60.6 | 6.7 | 48.5 | 1.3 | 32.0 | 3.3 | 8.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 144 | 282 | Portsmouth South | Stephen Morgan | 73,711 | 52.8 | 9.9 | 41.9 | 5.1 | 26.0 | 7.4 | 9.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 186 | 240 | Southampton Test | Satvir Kaur | 65,520 | 54.6 | 13.8 | 33.2 | 4.9 | 20.6 | 17.1 | 10.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 187 | 239 | Milton Keynes Central | Emily Darlington | 81,078 | 58.9 | 22.7 | 31.4 | 9.7 | 18.9 | 12.0 | 5.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 202 | 224 | Milton Keynes North | Chris Curtis | 70,709 | 65.0 | 24.5 | 31.6 | 7.2 | 20.2 | 11.1 | 5.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 203 | 223 | Southampton Itchen | Darren Paffey | 68,379 | 55.7 | 11.1 | 41.0 | 2.7 | 29.6 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 210 | 216 | Thanet East | Polly Billington | 74,940 | 57.0 | 6.1 | 46.5 | 0.7 | 35.6 | 1.9 | 9.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 217 | 209 | Canterbury | Rosie Duffield | 71,171 | 66.4 | 18.4 | 32.0 | 6.9 | 21.6 | 14.6 | 6.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 220 | 206 | Worthing East and Shoreham | Tom Rutland | 74,738 | 65.7 | 18.1 | 34.8 | 5.3 | 24.6 | 9.8 | 7.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 246 | 180 | Basingstoke | Luke Murphy | 78,487 | 62.4 | 23.7 | 30.5 | 7.4 | 22.3 | 10.3 | 5.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 257 | 169 | Earley and Woodley | Yuan Yang | 73,548 | 62.4 | 23.7 | 28.7 | 9.7 | 20.9 | 11.9 | 5.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 277 | 149 | Slough | Tan Dhesi | 81,512 | 53.1 | 14.9 | 32.5 | 4.1 | 26.0 | 12.3 | 10.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 278 | 148 | Aldershot | Alex Baker | 78,569 | 61.8 | 23.0 | 30.2 | 7.5 | 23.7 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 281 | 145 | Crawley | Peter Lamb | 75,569 | 60.4 | 20.9 | 30.5 | 4.8 | 24.4 | 12.3 | 7.1 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 297 | 129 | Dover and Deal | Mike Tapp | 76,406 | 62.5 | 6.2 | 43.8 | 0.9 | 38.9 | 1.3 | 8.9 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 302 | 124 | Banbury | Sean Woodcock | 73,193 | 65.8 | 25.3 | 27.9 | 7.9 | 23.4 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 304 | 122 | Worthing West | Beccy Cooper | 77,038 | 66.2 | 24.4 | 29.2 | 5.5 | 24.9 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 308 | 118 | Buckingham and Bletchley | Callum Anderson | 74,832 | 63.7 | 24.7 | 27.3 | 7.6 | 23.6 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 312 | 113 | Spelthorne | Lincoln Jopp | 73,782 | 62.6 | 27.3 | 22.1 | 14.3 | 19.0 | 9.6 | 7.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 316 | 109 | Reigate | Rebecca Paul | 77,101 | 68.9 | 24.6 | 24.0 | 9.8 | 21.1 | 12.7 | 7.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 317 | 109 | Gillingham and Rainham | Naushabah Khan | 73,523 | 56.0 | 21.9 | 29.4 | 5.2 | 26.6 | 9.6 | 7.4 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 324 | 101 | East Grinstead and Uckfield | Mims Davies | 75,385 | 66.8 | 26.8 | 20.7 | 13.3 | 18.8 | 13.8 | 6.6 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 325 | 101 | Wycombe | Emma Reynolds | 73,846 | 60.4 | 22.6 | 26.3 | 10.0 | 24.5 | 10.0 | 6.6 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 329 | 96 | Reading West and Mid Berkshire | Olivia Bailey | 68,786 | 67.7 | 26.5 | 25.0 | 9.8 | 23.7 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 333 | 92 | Aylesbury | Laura Elizabeth Kyrke-Smith | 79,169 | 63.1 | 25.9 | 23.0 | 15.6 | 22.0 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 0.0 | LAB | CON |
| 338 | 87 | Maidstone and Malling | Helen Grant | 76,449 | 60.7 | 27.7 | 20.5 | 12.6 | 20.1 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 342 | 84 | Folkestone and Hythe | Tony Vaughan | 70,056 | 61.7 | 10.0 | 36.9 | 1.9 | 37.0 | 4.7 | 9.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 345 | 80 | Oxford West and Abingdon | Layla Moran | 71,318 | 64.5 | 19.8 | 15.4 | 34.1 | 16.1 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 347 | 78 | Faversham and Mid Kent | Helen Whately | 74,301 | 62.7 | 26.1 | 20.9 | 8.4 | 22.3 | 10.3 | 11.9 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 348 | 78 | Bracknell | Peter Swallow | 71,656 | 61.2 | 24.5 | 24.2 | 8.1 | 25.7 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 348 | 77 | Havant | Alan Mak | 72,346 | 58.3 | 24.7 | 21.7 | 7.0 | 23.3 | 9.7 | 13.6 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 349 | 76 | Hampshire North West | Kit Malthouse | 78,629 | 64.6 | 25.3 | 21.9 | 11.3 | 23.7 | 9.2 | 8.7 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 350 | 76 | Isle of Wight West | Richard Quigley | 55,406 | 61.9 | 23.5 | 26.5 | 8.3 | 28.4 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 351 | 75 | Gravesham | Lauren Sullivan | 73,088 | 59.2 | 23.0 | 26.5 | 4.3 | 28.4 | 8.0 | 9.9 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 357 | 68 | Buckinghamshire Mid | Greg Smith | 75,415 | 71.5 | 27.6 | 18.4 | 16.0 | 21.1 | 9.2 | 7.7 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 360 | 65 | Windsor | Jack Rankin | 73,334 | 61.7 | 27.5 | 18.5 | 15.3 | 21.6 | 9.2 | 7.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 361 | 65 | Dartford | Jim Dickson | 75,426 | 59.0 | 23.8 | 24.7 | 5.3 | 27.8 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 363 | 63 | Ashford | Sojan Joseph | 76,212 | 61.6 | 21.7 | 25.3 | 5.7 | 28.6 | 11.3 | 7.4 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 364 | 62 | Chatham and Aylesford | Tristan Osborne | 75,109 | 54.4 | 22.2 | 25.9 | 5.2 | 29.2 | 9.3 | 8.1 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 370 | 55 | Bexhill and Battle | Kieran Mullan | 72,209 | 66.1 | 30.4 | 20.1 | 8.7 | 24.0 | 7.1 | 9.8 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 372 | 53 | Bognor Regis and Littlehampton | Ali Griffiths | 77,565 | 61.7 | 28.3 | 20.0 | 9.1 | 24.0 | 6.8 | 11.9 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 373 | 52 | Runnymede and Weybridge | Ben Spencer | 73,610 | 65.6 | 27.6 | 18.6 | 14.6 | 22.7 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 373 | 52 | Sussex Mid | Alison Bennett | 75,969 | 70.2 | 31.5 | 8.1 | 41.6 | 12.2 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 381 | 44 | Bicester and Woodstock | Calum Alexander Miller | 74,350 | 67.5 | 30.9 | 9.0 | 38.6 | 13.9 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 382 | 43 | Arundel and South Downs | Andrew Griffith | 77,969 | 70.2 | 27.1 | 18.1 | 11.2 | 23.4 | 12.3 | 7.9 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 384 | 41 | Didcot and Wantage | Olly Glover | 80,689 | 67.8 | 30.2 | 9.0 | 38.1 | 14.5 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 384 | 41 | Winchester | Danny Chambers | 78,289 | 72.9 | 34.3 | 2.1 | 51.6 | 7.6 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 385 | 41 | Herne Bay and Sandwich | Roger Gale | 77,841 | 62.7 | 23.4 | 23.0 | 5.4 | 28.6 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
| 386 | 40 | Rochester and Strood | Lauren Rae Edwards | 74,257 | 57.4 | 22.6 | 25.2 | 5.5 | 30.7 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 386 | 39 | Guildford | Zöe Franklin | 70,734 | 68.3 | 35.8 | 2.4 | 49.3 | 7.9 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 386 | 39 | Beaconsfield | Joy Morrissey | 72,751 | 65.6 | 29.0 | 16.1 | 17.8 | 21.8 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 387 | 38 | New Forest West | Desmond Swayne | 68,644 | 67.5 | 26.8 | 20.0 | 11.2 | 25.9 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 388 | 37 | Esher and Walton | Monica Harding | 74,042 | 72.8 | 35.7 | 1.9 | 50.6 | 8.0 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 388 | 37 | Woking | Will Forster | 72,977 | 66.0 | 32.1 | 3.6 | 49.1 | 9.8 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 388 | 37 | Tunbridge Wells | Mike Martin | 78,738 | 68.9 | 31.6 | 6.9 | 41.6 | 13.1 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 391 | 34 | Wokingham | Clive Jones | 75,082 | 71.9 | 37.9 | 2.1 | 46.0 | 8.7 | 1.4 | 4.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 396 | 29 | Maidenhead | Joshua Peter Reynolds | 75,687 | 66.5 | 30.1 | 9.9 | 33.8 | 17.6 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 396 | 29 | Farnham and Bordon | Gregory Stafford | 75,918 | 69.8 | 27.4 | 14.2 | 22.4 | 22.0 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 397 | 28 | Romsey and Southampton North | Caroline Nokes | 71,871 | 69.6 | 30.0 | 12.8 | 21.7 | 20.8 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 397 | 28 | Hampshire East | Damian Hinds | 71,965 | 69.6 | 28.1 | 13.7 | 20.9 | 22.0 | 7.8 | 7.4 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 398 | 27 | Henley and Thame | Freddie Van Mierlo | 73,749 | 72.1 | 36.8 | 3.3 | 42.0 | 11.8 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 399 | 26 | Horsham | John Milne | 79,150 | 70.1 | 39.6 | 2.9 | 40.1 | 11.4 | 1.6 | 4.3 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 399 | 26 | Lewes | James MacCleary | 76,166 | 69.8 | 23.6 | 11.1 | 35.9 | 19.7 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 399 | 26 | Fareham and Waterlooville | Suella Braverman | 77,691 | 64.5 | 29.3 | 17.4 | 10.8 | 26.1 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 401 | 24 | Epsom and Ewell | Helen Maguire | 77,530 | 70.3 | 31.0 | 9.1 | 34.2 | 18.1 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 402 | 23 | Godalming and Ash | Jeremy Hunt | 74,168 | 73.7 | 34.5 | 8.3 | 28.5 | 17.4 | 4.9 | 6.4 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 404 | 21 | Witney | Charlie Maynard | 75,448 | 67.0 | 30.5 | 9.5 | 31.4 | 18.8 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 404 | 21 | Tonbridge | Tom Tugendhat | 72,799 | 69.1 | 32.4 | 15.2 | 5.7 | 24.6 | 13.4 | 8.7 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 407 | 18 | Hamble Valley | Paul Holmes | 80,537 | 67.1 | 31.3 | 14.0 | 15.6 | 23.9 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 407 | 18 | Sussex Weald | Nus Ghani | 72,897 | 67.5 | 36.9 | 12.2 | 11.4 | 22.3 | 7.1 | 10.1 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 408 | 17 | Weald of Kent | Katie Jane Lotte Lam | 75,988 | 66.7 | 31.4 | 17.2 | 5.6 | 27.6 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 408 | 17 | Surrey Heath | Al Pinkerton | 71,934 | 66.4 | 34.8 | 4.9 | 37.5 | 15.8 | 2.4 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 408 | 17 | Eastleigh | Liz Jarvis | 69,965 | 66.3 | 28.0 | 11.1 | 27.9 | 23.2 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 0.0 | LIB | CON |
| 408 | 17 | Dorking and Horley | Chris Coghlan | 71,850 | 69.5 | 29.2 | 8.4 | 32.3 | 20.7 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 410 | 16 | Portsmouth North | Amanda Martin | 70,446 | 59.0 | 24.7 | 20.1 | 7.9 | 32.4 | 5.5 | 9.5 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 412 | 14 | Sittingbourne and Sheppey | Kevin McKenna | 79,067 | 51.9 | 23.1 | 21.6 | 4.3 | 34.8 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 0.0 | LAB | Reform |
| 412 | 13 | Chesham and Amersham | Sarah Green | 74,889 | 72.7 | 25.9 | 10.9 | 29.8 | 24.2 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 412 | 13 | Eastbourne | Josh Babarinde | 72,592 | 62.8 | 22.7 | 9.6 | 34.4 | 23.1 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 414 | 11 | Chichester | Jessica Brown-Fuller | 78,374 | 66.3 | 23.0 | 9.4 | 33.8 | 24.4 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 416 | 9 | Gosport | Caroline Dinenage | 73,261 | 60.4 | 39.8 | 12.0 | 4.2 | 28.7 | 5.7 | 9.7 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 416 | 9 | Isle of Wight East | Joe Robertson | 55,855 | 61.0 | 42.0 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 25.4 | 7.4 | 11.9 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 417 | 9 | Hampshire North East | Alex Brewer | 76,975 | 72.2 | 26.4 | 10.8 | 26.9 | 27.7 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 0.0 | LIB | Reform |
| 417 | 8 | Newbury | Lee Raymond James Dillon | 71,986 | 68.0 | 25.5 | 9.7 | 27.6 | 26.8 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 419 | 6 | Sevenoaks | Laura Trott | 73,708 | 67.7 | 45.7 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 26.6 | 4.8 | 8.9 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 419 | 6 | Surrey East | Claire Coutinho | 73,307 | 67.1 | 46.5 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 28.1 | 4.8 | 8.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 419 | 6 | New Forest East | Julian Lewis | 70,618 | 64.0 | 46.0 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 28.7 | 5.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.