South East: Majority Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 54.6%73 31.0%010-1063
LAB 28.6%8 23.0%80+816
LIB 10.5%2 11.2%20+24
UKIP 2.3%0 5.3%00+00
Green 3.1%1 5.0%00+01
ChUK 0.0%0 6.0%00+00
Brexit 0.0%0 16.5%00+00
Minor 1.0%0 1.9%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Oxford East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Buckingham, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Basingstoke (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Reading East (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
NAT
%
ChUK
%
Brexit
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
67483Oxford East Anneliese Dodds78,36068.813.647.311.43.36.50.06.510.30.01.1LABLAB
77473Slough Tan Dhesi83,27265.217.750.05.93.75.50.05.211.30.00.8LABLAB
111439Hove Peter Kyle74,23677.619.146.47.63.45.30.06.110.70.01.4LABLAB
142408Southampton Test Alan Whitehead70,19466.819.743.07.94.24.80.05.813.10.01.6LABLAB
169381Brighton Kemptown Lloyd Russell-Moyle67,89372.522.242.27.54.04.30.05.812.50.01.7LABLAB
221329Reading East Matt Rodda75,52273.124.637.99.53.75.30.06.311.50.01.3LABLAB
243307Portsmouth South Stephen Morgan69,78563.920.330.914.55.05.40.06.515.60.01.7LABLAB
252297Brighton Pavilion Caroline Lucas75,48676.411.720.54.95.830.20.07.317.70.01.8GreenGreen
258292Southampton Itchen Royston Smith71,71665.225.033.36.65.64.60.05.417.30.02.1CONLAB
270280Canterbury Rosie Duffield78,13772.726.133.110.24.34.80.06.313.60.01.7LABLAB
273277Hastings and Rye Amber Rudd78,29869.926.033.07.25.24.70.05.816.20.02.1CONLAB
274276Crawley Henry Smith73,42468.528.635.47.04.53.50.05.514.00.01.6CONLAB
276274Milton Keynes South Iain Stewart92,49469.726.633.46.75.14.90.05.615.80.01.8CONLAB
279271Milton Keynes North Mark Lancaster89,27271.527.033.67.44.84.90.05.814.90.01.7CONLAB
289261Reading West Alok Sharma74,51869.528.233.28.64.44.20.06.013.80.01.6CONLAB
306244Wycombe Steve Baker77,08969.428.531.09.34.55.10.06.214.00.01.3CONLAB
317233Worthing East and Shoreham Tim Loughton75,54370.328.228.97.75.45.10.05.916.70.02.0CONLAB
322228Thanet South Craig Mackinlay72,34268.827.026.56.16.75.20.05.420.60.02.4CONCON
323227Dover Charlie Elphicke74,56469.728.828.36.06.14.40.05.418.70.02.3CONCON
335215Basingstoke Maria Miller81,87368.329.227.18.25.64.70.05.717.30.02.1CONCON
341209Gravesham Adam Holloway72,94867.229.526.95.76.44.50.05.219.60.02.3CONCON
345205Rochester and Strood Kelly Tolhurst82,70265.028.925.95.66.74.90.05.320.40.02.4CONCON
351199Gillingham and Rainham Rehman Chishti72,09367.830.626.76.16.04.70.05.518.30.02.1CONCON
359191Portsmouth North Penny Mordaunt71,37466.129.425.07.36.44.50.05.519.70.02.3CONCON
364186Chatham and Aylesford Tracey Crouch70,41963.730.224.95.86.64.70.05.320.20.02.3CONCON
365185Banbury Victoria Prentis83,81873.431.326.08.15.45.00.05.816.60.01.8CONCON
366184Aldershot Leo Docherty76,20564.229.724.58.75.94.90.05.818.30.02.2CONCON
370180Thanet North Roger Gale72,65766.530.224.66.36.54.70.05.519.90.02.4CONCON
377173Worthing West Peter Bottomley77,77770.131.124.87.95.75.00.05.817.60.02.1CONCON
380170Dartford Gareth Johnson78,50669.131.324.65.86.54.60.05.219.80.02.3CONCON
387163Aylesbury David Lidington82,54671.231.424.210.05.44.80.06.016.50.01.7CONCON
390160Folkestone and Hythe Damian Collins84,09070.029.121.38.07.05.40.05.521.30.02.4CONCON
399151Spelthorne Kwasi Kwarteng72,64169.031.923.37.46.24.80.05.518.90.02.1CONCON
404146Isle of Wight Bob Seely110,69767.326.417.55.88.67.80.05.326.00.02.6CONCON
409141Ashford Damian Green87,39668.532.222.97.36.24.60.05.619.10.02.2CONCON
412138Wantage Ed Vaizey87,73572.531.522.013.44.94.60.06.515.30.01.8CONCON
413137Bracknell Phillip Lee79,19970.633.524.09.05.34.10.05.816.30.02.0CONCON
416134Sittingbourne and Sheppey Gordon Henderson81,71562.933.924.16.15.93.70.05.518.30.02.4CONCON
423127Tunbridge Wells Greg Clark75,13872.132.121.910.75.35.40.06.416.40.01.9CONCON
425125Woking Jonathan Lord76,17072.531.721.415.04.54.80.06.914.10.01.4CONCON
433117Havant Alan Mak72,46463.930.920.07.37.15.00.05.421.80.02.5CONCON
439110Oxford West and Abingdon Layla Moran79,28975.723.412.240.33.23.20.06.210.30.01.2LIBLIB
441109Eastleigh Mims Davies81,21370.529.217.818.55.34.10.06.816.40.01.9CONCON
45397Gosport Caroline Dinenage73,88667.033.321.16.96.54.50.05.419.90.02.4CONCON
45496Sussex Mid Nicholas Soames83,74773.633.020.812.25.14.80.06.415.80.01.9CONCON
45595Reigate Crispin Blunt74,62872.132.920.611.05.45.30.06.316.70.01.9CONCON
45694Wokingham John Redwood79,87974.734.121.814.84.04.20.06.912.70.01.6CONCON
45892Faversham and Kent Mid Helen Whately76,00865.533.320.98.06.24.60.05.819.00.02.2CONCON
46981Maidstone and The Weald Helen Grant75,33468.631.618.813.45.74.50.06.317.60.02.0CONCON
47179Runnymede and Weybridge Philip Hammond74,88768.934.321.49.05.45.10.06.116.80.01.9CONCON
47575Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Nick Gibb75,82767.733.420.17.86.54.30.05.520.00.02.4CONCON
48268Epsom and Ewell Chris Grayling80,02974.135.421.212.24.64.10.06.514.30.01.7CONCON
48367Guildford Anne Milton75,45473.632.117.919.24.34.30.07.213.50.01.6CONCON
48663Eastbourne Stephen Lloyd78,75472.923.89.338.94.42.60.05.813.70.01.5LIBLIB
48763Witney Robert Courts82,72773.632.818.316.84.74.10.06.814.60.01.8CONCON
49159Chichester Gillian Keegan84,99670.533.618.911.15.74.90.06.217.60.02.1CONCON
49852Romsey and Southampton North Caroline Nokes67,18674.733.317.717.34.64.10.06.914.50.01.7CONCON
49951Hampshire North West Kit Malthouse81,43072.235.219.610.15.64.20.05.917.30.02.1CONCON
50050Horsham Jeremy Quin82,77374.934.218.411.75.54.90.06.317.00.02.0CONCON
50149Bexhill and Battle Huw Merriman78,51275.735.319.58.56.04.40.05.718.40.02.2CONCON
50347Fareham Suella Fernandes79,49571.736.220.48.55.54.40.05.917.00.02.1CONCON
50841Lewes Maria Caulfield70,94776.427.511.136.63.52.50.06.011.30.01.5CONLIB
51040Wealden Nus Ghani81,42574.335.118.510.35.74.70.06.117.50.02.1CONCON
51139Esher and Walton Dominic Raab80,93873.934.918.215.34.54.70.06.913.90.01.6CONCON
51238Tonbridge and Malling Tom Tugendhat77,23473.735.418.78.26.14.90.05.818.80.02.1CONCON
51337Arundel and South Downs Nick Herbert80,76674.635.718.99.35.65.10.06.117.30.02.0CONCON
51535Henley John Howell74,98776.134.817.713.75.05.00.06.615.40.01.8CONCON
51733Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan71,46577.335.618.312.35.04.90.06.515.60.01.7CONCON
51931Windsor Adam Afriyie73,59573.337.520.211.14.64.10.06.314.40.01.7CONCON
52129Sevenoaks Michael Fallon71,06172.135.717.99.06.04.80.05.918.60.02.1CONCON
52128Winchester Steve Brine72,49778.828.610.733.83.93.40.05.912.30.01.4CONLIB
52426Surrey East Sam Gyimah82,00472.235.817.510.65.74.60.06.017.70.02.0CONCON
52624New Forest East Julian Lewis72,60270.835.817.412.75.43.50.06.216.90.02.1CONCON
52921Beaconsfield Dominic Grieve77,53472.337.518.99.45.34.80.06.016.20.01.9CONCON
53020Surrey Heath Michael Gove80,53771.837.218.510.95.14.20.06.215.90.01.9CONCON
53515Maidenhead Theresa May76,27676.438.318.111.64.74.50.06.414.70.01.6CONCON
53812Hampshire East Damian Hinds74,14874.736.815.913.55.24.20.06.416.10.01.9CONCON
53911Newbury Richard Benyon82,92373.435.514.517.14.93.90.06.815.40.01.9CONCON
5419New Forest West Desmond Swayne68,78772.138.117.09.95.63.90.06.017.30.02.2CONCON
5428Meon Valley George Hollingbery74,24673.037.716.410.75.54.30.06.117.10.02.1CONCON
5446Mole Valley Paul Beresford74,54576.136.214.015.95.14.50.06.815.80.01.8CONCON
5455Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena75,47676.438.616.011.95.04.50.06.415.60.01.9CONCON
5473Surrey South West Jeremy Hunt78,04277.441.715.612.84.33.70.06.613.50.01.7CONCON
5491Buckingham John Bercow79,61666.236.66.44.28.410.80.05.925.20.02.5CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.