South East: Majority Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 54.6%73 28.8%118-1756
LAB 28.6%8 16.4%42+210
LIB 10.5%2 22.0%70+79
Brexit 0.0%0 21.9%80+88
Green 3.1%1 7.6%00+01
UKIP 2.3%0 1.1%00+00
Other 1.0%0 2.2%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Slough, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Buckingham, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Sittingbourne and Sheppey (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Oxford East (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
61392Slough Tan Dhesi83,27265.220.948.812.
96357Oxford East Anneliese Dodds78,36068.813.436.427.
130323Hove Peter Kyle74,23677.618.236.818.814.
154299Southampton Test Alan Whitehead70,19466.819.335.517.916.
182271Brighton Kemptown Lloyd Russell-Moyle67,89372.520.833.316.917.
228225Reading East Matt Rodda75,52273.124.629.022.512.
243210Southampton Itchen Royston Smith71,71665.224.226.815.
245207Portsmouth South Stephen Morgan69,78563.920.022.230.815.
247206Hastings and Rye Amber Rudd78,29869.924.626.715.
253200Crawley Henry Smith73,42468.528.529.414.518.
255198Milton Keynes South Iain Stewart92,49469.726.727.315.919.
255197Brighton Pavilion Caroline Lucas75,48676.412.312.813.28.949.
257196Milton Keynes North Mark Lancaster89,27271.526.826.617.518.
260193Canterbury Rosie Duffield78,13772.723.923.423.418.
262191Reading West Alok Sharma74,51869.526.926.218.318.
271182Worthing East and Shoreham Tim Loughton75,54370.325.621.917.423.
274179Wycombe Steve Baker77,08969.429.024.521.
274178Dover Charlie Elphicke74,56469.726.722.113.427.
274178Thanet South Craig Mackinlay72,34268.826.221.413.827.
288165Gravesham Adam Holloway72,94867.
288164Rochester and Strood Kelly Tolhurst82,70265.027.620.613.
293160Basingstoke Maria Miller81,87368.327.519.818.823.
297156Gillingham and Rainham Rehman Chishti72,09367.829.421.113.825.
297155Portsmouth North Penny Mordaunt71,37466.127.418.915.627.
300153Chatham and Aylesford Tracey Crouch70,41963.728.819.812.827.
300152Thanet North Roger Gale72,65766.528.018.913.828.
316137Aldershot Leo Docherty76,20564.228.117.819.
317136Worthing West Peter Bottomley77,77770.128.317.817.725.
320133Banbury Victoria Prentis83,81873.430.019.417.721.
323130Dartford Gareth Johnson78,50669.
331122Sittingbourne and Sheppey Gordon Henderson81,71562.930.417.913.
332121Folkestone and Hythe Damian Collins84,09070.027.915.317.327.
334119Aylesbury David Lidington82,54671.230.417.521.520.
337116Spelthorne Kwasi Kwarteng72,64169.
346106Oxford West and Abingdon Layla Moran79,28975.720.87.451.
346106Isle of Wight Bob Seely110,69767.326.012.614.
347105Eastleigh Mims Davies81,21370.524.310.834.
348105Ashford Damian Green87,39668.529.916.316.
350103Wantage Ed Vaizey87,73572.527.813.926.521.
35597Eastbourne Stephen Lloyd78,75472.920.66.347.
36192Bracknell Phillip Lee79,19970.631.016.319.423.
36290Havant Alan Mak72,46463.929.
36884Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Nick Gibb75,82767.729.814.215.830.
36983Woking Jonathan Lord76,17072.529.714.029.816.
37182Maidstone and The Weald Helen Grant75,33468.628.112.226.523.
37578Tunbridge Wells Greg Clark75,13872.130.414.323.
37776Faversham and Kent Mid Helen Whately76,00865.530.414.417.327.
38271Gosport Caroline Dinenage73,88667.031.014.715.
38369Lewes Maria Caulfield70,94776.423.26.845.517.
38568Sussex Mid Nicholas Soames83,74773.629.713.125.521.
39162Wokingham John Redwood79,87974.730.413.329.
39360Witney Robert Courts82,72773.628.811.628.721.
39657Reigate Crispin Blunt74,62872.130.813.523.320.
40052Guildford Anne Milton75,45473.628.610.535.616.
40350Chichester Gillian Keegan84,99670.530.712.422.623.
40449Runnymede and Weybridge Philip Hammond74,88768.932.714.320.321.
40548Epsom and Ewell Chris Grayling80,02974.132.013.624.620.
40845Bexhill and Battle Huw Merriman78,51275.731.913.217.827.
41043Fareham Suella Fernandes79,49571.732.213.418.825.
41240Romsey and Southampton North Caroline Nokes67,18674.729.610.732.518.
41340Hampshire North West Kit Malthouse81,43072.231.912.820.624.
41439Horsham Jeremy Quin82,77374.931.111.824.
41538New Forest East Julian Lewis72,60270.830.411.
41835Wealden Nus Ghani81,42574.331.612.120.924.
41933Winchester Steve Brine72,49778.826.26.544.
42231Arundel and South Downs Nick Herbert80,76674.632.412.320.524.
42330Henley John Howell74,98776.131.311.026.820.
42528Esher and Walton Dominic Raab80,93873.932.011.329.417.
42726Tonbridge and Malling Tom Tugendhat77,23473.733.212.418.425.
43023Surrey East Sam Gyimah82,00472.232.711.621.624.
43122Sevenoaks Michael Fallon71,06172.132.911.819.625.
43221Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan71,46577.332.911.525.619.
43518Surrey Heath Michael Gove80,53771.833.812.
43617New Forest West Desmond Swayne68,78772.133.311.119.326.
43716Newbury Richard Benyon82,92373.431.08.730.921.
43815Windsor Adam Afriyie73,59573.335.413.122.719.
43914Hampshire East Damian Hinds74,14874.732.79.825.722.
44013Meon Valley George Hollingbery74,24673.033.310.422.424.
44112Beaconsfield Dominic Grieve77,53472.335.612.520.321.
4449Mole Valley Paul Beresford74,54576.132.28.529.520.
4458Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena75,47676.434.89.824.621.
4467Maidenhead Theresa May76,27676.436.511.624.418.
4476Surrey South West Jeremy Hunt78,04277.437.69.425.419.
4512Buckingham John Bercow79,61666.238.64.312.225.615.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.