South East: Majority Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party	2017 Votes	2017 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	54.6%	73	31.0%	0	10	-10	63
LAB	28.6%	8	23.0%	8	0	+8	16
LIB	10.5%	2	11.2%	2	0	+2	4
UKIP	2.3%	0	5.3%	0	0	+0	0
Green	3.1%	1	5.0%	0	0	+0	1
ChUK	0.0%	0	6.0%	0	0	+0	0
Brexit	0.0%	0	16.5%	0	0	+0	0
Minor	1.0%	0	1.9%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Oxford East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Buckingham, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Basingstoke (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Reading East (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

Lab Seats	Con Seats	Seat	MP at 2017	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	UKIP %	Green %	NAT %	ChUK %	Brexit %	MIN %	OTH %	2017 Win	Pred Win
67	483	Oxford East	Anneliese Dodds	78,360	68.8	13.6	47.3	11.4	3.3	6.5	0.0	6.5	10.3	0.0	1.1	LAB	LAB
77	473	Slough	Tan Dhesi	83,272	65.2	17.7	50.0	5.9	3.7	5.5	0.0	5.2	11.3	0.0	0.8	LAB	LAB
111	439	Hove	Peter Kyle	74,236	77.6	19.1	46.4	7.6	3.4	5.3	0.0	6.1	10.7	0.0	1.4	LAB	LAB
142	408	Southampton Test	Alan Whitehead	70,194	66.8	19.7	43.0	7.9	4.2	4.8	0.0	5.8	13.1	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
169	381	Brighton Kemptown	Lloyd Russell-Moyle	67,893	72.5	22.2	42.2	7.5	4.0	4.3	0.0	5.8	12.5	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
221	329	Reading East	Matt Rodda	75,522	73.1	24.6	37.9	9.5	3.7	5.3	0.0	6.3	11.5	0.0	1.3	LAB	LAB
243	307	Portsmouth South	Stephen Morgan	69,785	63.9	20.3	30.9	14.5	5.0	5.4	0.0	6.5	15.6	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
252	297	Brighton Pavilion	Caroline Lucas	75,486	76.4	11.7	20.5	4.9	5.8	30.2	0.0	7.3	17.7	0.0	1.8	Green	Green
258	292	Southampton Itchen	Royston Smith	71,716	65.2	25.0	33.3	6.6	5.6	4.6	0.0	5.4	17.3	0.0	2.1	CON	LAB
270	280	Canterbury	Rosie Duffield	78,137	72.7	26.1	33.1	10.2	4.3	4.8	0.0	6.3	13.6	0.0	1.7	LAB	LAB
273	277	Hastings and Rye	Amber Rudd	78,298	69.9	26.0	33.0	7.2	5.2	4.7	0.0	5.8	16.2	0.0	2.1	CON	LAB
274	276	Crawley	Henry Smith	73,424	68.5	28.6	35.4	7.0	4.5	3.5	0.0	5.5	14.0	0.0	1.6	CON	LAB
276	274	Milton Keynes South	Iain Stewart	92,494	69.7	26.6	33.4	6.7	5.1	4.9	0.0	5.6	15.8	0.0	1.8	CON	LAB
279	271	Milton Keynes North	Mark Lancaster	89,272	71.5	27.0	33.6	7.4	4.8	4.9	0.0	5.8	14.9	0.0	1.7	CON	LAB
289	261	Reading West	Alok Sharma	74,518	69.5	28.2	33.2	8.6	4.4	4.2	0.0	6.0	13.8	0.0	1.6	CON	LAB
306	244	Wycombe	Steve Baker	77,089	69.4	28.5	31.0	9.3	4.5	5.1	0.0	6.2	14.0	0.0	1.3	CON	LAB
317	233	Worthing East and Shoreham	Tim Loughton	75,543	70.3	28.2	28.9	7.7	5.4	5.1	0.0	5.9	16.7	0.0	2.0	CON	LAB
322	228	Thanet South	Craig Mackinlay	72,342	68.8	27.0	26.5	6.1	6.7	5.2	0.0	5.4	20.6	0.0	2.4	CON	CON
323	227	Dover	Charlie Elphicke	74,564	69.7	28.8	28.3	6.0	6.1	4.4	0.0	5.4	18.7	0.0	2.3	CON	CON
335	215	Basingstoke	Maria Miller	81,873	68.3	29.2	27.1	8.2	5.6	4.7	0.0	5.7	17.3	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
341	209	Gravesham	Adam Holloway	72,948	67.2	29.5	26.9	5.7	6.4	4.5	0.0	5.2	19.6	0.0	2.3	CON	CON
345	205	Rochester and Strood	Kelly Tolhurst	82,702	65.0	28.9	25.9	5.6	6.7	4.9	0.0	5.3	20.4	0.0	2.4	CON	CON
351	199	Gillingham and Rainham	Rehman Chishti	72,093	67.8	30.6	26.7	6.1	6.0	4.7	0.0	5.5	18.3	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
359	191	Portsmouth North	Penny Mordaunt	71,374	66.1	29.4	25.0	7.3	6.4	4.5	0.0	5.5	19.7	0.0	2.3	CON	CON
364	186	Chatham and Aylesford	Tracey Crouch	70,419	63.7	30.2	24.9	5.8	6.6	4.7	0.0	5.3	20.2	0.0	2.3	CON	CON
365	185	Banbury	Victoria Prentis	83,818	73.4	31.3	26.0	8.1	5.4	5.0	0.0	5.8	16.6	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
366	184	Aldershot	Leo Docherty	76,205	64.2	29.7	24.5	8.7	5.9	4.9	0.0	5.8	18.3	0.0	2.2	CON	CON
370	180	Thanet North	Roger Gale	72,657	66.5	30.2	24.6	6.3	6.5	4.7	0.0	5.5	19.9	0.0	2.4	CON	CON
377	173	Worthing West	Peter Bottomley	77,777	70.1	31.1	24.8	7.9	5.7	5.0	0.0	5.8	17.6	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
380	170	Dartford	Gareth Johnson	78,506	69.1	31.3	24.6	5.8	6.5	4.6	0.0	5.2	19.8	0.0	2.3	CON	CON
387	163	Aylesbury	David Lidington	82,546	71.2	31.4	24.2	10.0	5.4	4.8	0.0	6.0	16.5	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
390	160	Folkestone and Hythe	Damian Collins	84,090	70.0	29.1	21.3	8.0	7.0	5.4	0.0	5.5	21.3	0.0	2.4	CON	CON
399	151	Spelthorne	Kwasi Kwarteng	72,641	69.0	31.9	23.3	7.4	6.2	4.8	0.0	5.5	18.9	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
404	146	Isle of Wight	Bob Seely	110,697	67.3	26.4	17.5	5.8	8.6	7.8	0.0	5.3	26.0	0.0	2.6	CON	CON
409	141	Ashford	Damian Green	87,396	68.5	32.2	22.9	7.3	6.2	4.6	0.0	5.6	19.1	0.0	2.2	CON	CON
412	138	Wantage	Ed Vaizey	87,735	72.5	31.5	22.0	13.4	4.9	4.6	0.0	6.5	15.3	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
413	137	Bracknell	Phillip Lee	79,199	70.6	33.5	24.0	9.0	5.3	4.1	0.0	5.8	16.3	0.0	2.0	CON	CON
416	134	Sittingbourne and Sheppey	Gordon Henderson	81,715	62.9	33.9	24.1	6.1	5.9	3.7	0.0	5.5	18.3	0.0	2.4	CON	CON
423	127	Tunbridge Wells	Greg Clark	75,138	72.1	32.1	21.9	10.7	5.3	5.4	0.0	6.4	16.4	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
425	125	Woking	Jonathan Lord	76,170	72.5	31.7	21.4	15.0	4.5	4.8	0.0	6.9	14.1	0.0	1.4	CON	CON
433	117	Havant	Alan Mak	72,464	63.9	30.9	20.0	7.3	7.1	5.0	0.0	5.4	21.8	0.0	2.5	CON	CON
439	110	Oxford West and Abingdon	Layla Moran	79,289	75.7	23.4	12.2	40.3	3.2	3.2	0.0	6.2	10.3	0.0	1.2	LIB	LIB
441	109	Eastleigh	Mims Davies	81,213	70.5	29.2	17.8	18.5	5.3	4.1	0.0	6.8	16.4	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
453	97	Gosport	Caroline Dinenage	73,886	67.0	33.3	21.1	6.9	6.5	4.5	0.0	5.4	19.9	0.0	2.4	CON	CON
454	96	Sussex Mid	Nicholas Soames	83,747	73.6	33.0	20.8	12.2	5.1	4.8	0.0	6.4	15.8	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
455	95	Reigate	Crispin Blunt	74,628	72.1	32.9	20.6	11.0	5.4	5.3	0.0	6.3	16.7	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
456	94	Wokingham	John Redwood	79,879	74.7	34.1	21.8	14.8	4.0	4.2	0.0	6.9	12.7	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
458	92	Faversham and Kent Mid	Helen Whately	76,008	65.5	33.3	20.9	8.0	6.2	4.6	0.0	5.8	19.0	0.0	2.2	CON	CON
469	81	Maidstone and The Weald	Helen Grant	75,334	68.6	31.6	18.8	13.4	5.7	4.5	0.0	6.3	17.6	0.0	2.0	CON	CON
471	79	Runnymede and Weybridge	Philip Hammond	74,887	68.9	34.3	21.4	9.0	5.4	5.1	0.0	6.1	16.8	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
475	75	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	Nick Gibb	75,827	67.7	33.4	20.1	7.8	6.5	4.3	0.0	5.5	20.0	0.0	2.4	CON	CON
482	68	Epsom and Ewell	Chris Grayling	80,029	74.1	35.4	21.2	12.2	4.6	4.1	0.0	6.5	14.3	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
483	67	Guildford	Anne Milton	75,454	73.6	32.1	17.9	19.2	4.3	4.3	0.0	7.2	13.5	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
486	63	Eastbourne	Stephen Lloyd	78,754	72.9	23.8	9.3	38.9	4.4	2.6	0.0	5.8	13.7	0.0	1.5	LIB	LIB
487	63	Witney	Robert Courts	82,727	73.6	32.8	18.3	16.8	4.7	4.1	0.0	6.8	14.6	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
491	59	Chichester	Gillian Keegan	84,996	70.5	33.6	18.9	11.1	5.7	4.9	0.0	6.2	17.6	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
498	52	Romsey and Southampton North	Caroline Nokes	67,186	74.7	33.3	17.7	17.3	4.6	4.1	0.0	6.9	14.5	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
499	51	Hampshire North West	Kit Malthouse	81,430	72.2	35.2	19.6	10.1	5.6	4.2	0.0	5.9	17.3	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
500	50	Horsham	Jeremy Quin	82,773	74.9	34.2	18.4	11.7	5.5	4.9	0.0	6.3	17.0	0.0	2.0	CON	CON
501	49	Bexhill and Battle	Huw Merriman	78,512	75.7	35.3	19.5	8.5	6.0	4.4	0.0	5.7	18.4	0.0	2.2	CON	CON
503	47	Fareham	Suella Fernandes	79,495	71.7	36.2	20.4	8.5	5.5	4.4	0.0	5.9	17.0	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
508	41	Lewes	Maria Caulfield	70,947	76.4	27.5	11.1	36.6	3.5	2.5	0.0	6.0	11.3	0.0	1.5	CON	LIB
510	40	Wealden	Nus Ghani	81,425	74.3	35.1	18.5	10.3	5.7	4.7	0.0	6.1	17.5	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
511	39	Esher and Walton	Dominic Raab	80,938	73.9	34.9	18.2	15.3	4.5	4.7	0.0	6.9	13.9	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
512	38	Tonbridge and Malling	Tom Tugendhat	77,234	73.7	35.4	18.7	8.2	6.1	4.9	0.0	5.8	18.8	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
513	37	Arundel and South Downs	Nick Herbert	80,766	74.6	35.7	18.9	9.3	5.6	5.1	0.0	6.1	17.3	0.0	2.0	CON	CON
515	35	Henley	John Howell	74,987	76.1	34.8	17.7	13.7	5.0	5.0	0.0	6.6	15.4	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
517	33	Chesham and Amersham	Cheryl Gillan	71,465	77.3	35.6	18.3	12.3	5.0	4.9	0.0	6.5	15.6	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
519	31	Windsor	Adam Afriyie	73,595	73.3	37.5	20.2	11.1	4.6	4.1	0.0	6.3	14.4	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
521	29	Sevenoaks	Michael Fallon	71,061	72.1	35.7	17.9	9.0	6.0	4.8	0.0	5.9	18.6	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
521	28	Winchester	Steve Brine	72,497	78.8	28.6	10.7	33.8	3.9	3.4	0.0	5.9	12.3	0.0	1.4	CON	LIB
524	26	Surrey East	Sam Gyimah	82,004	72.2	35.8	17.5	10.6	5.7	4.6	0.0	6.0	17.7	0.0	2.0	CON	CON
526	24	New Forest East	Julian Lewis	72,602	70.8	35.8	17.4	12.7	5.4	3.5	0.0	6.2	16.9	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
529	21	Beaconsfield	Dominic Grieve	77,534	72.3	37.5	18.9	9.4	5.3	4.8	0.0	6.0	16.2	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
530	20	Surrey Heath	Michael Gove	80,537	71.8	37.2	18.5	10.9	5.1	4.2	0.0	6.2	15.9	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
535	15	Maidenhead	Theresa May	76,276	76.4	38.3	18.1	11.6	4.7	4.5	0.0	6.4	14.7	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
538	12	Hampshire East	Damian Hinds	74,148	74.7	36.8	15.9	13.5	5.2	4.2	0.0	6.4	16.1	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
539	11	Newbury	Richard Benyon	82,923	73.4	35.5	14.5	17.1	4.9	3.9	0.0	6.8	15.4	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
541	9	New Forest West	Desmond Swayne	68,787	72.1	38.1	17.0	9.9	5.6	3.9	0.0	6.0	17.3	0.0	2.2	CON	CON
542	8	Meon Valley	George Hollingbery	74,246	73.0	37.7	16.4	10.7	5.5	4.3	0.0	6.1	17.1	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
544	6	Mole Valley	Paul Beresford	74,545	76.1	36.2	14.0	15.9	5.1	4.5	0.0	6.8	15.8	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
545	5	Hampshire North East	Ranil Jayawardena	75,476	76.4	38.6	16.0	11.9	5.0	4.5	0.0	6.4	15.6	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
547	3	Surrey South West	Jeremy Hunt	78,042	77.4	41.7	15.6	12.8	4.3	3.7	0.0	6.6	13.5	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
549	1	Buckingham	John Bercow	79,616	66.2	36.6	6.4	4.2	8.4	10.8	0.0	5.9	25.2	0.0	2.5	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.