South East: Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 30.6%30 30.6%00+030
LAB 24.5%36 24.5%00+036
LIB 21.9%24 21.9%00+024
Reform 14.0%0 14.0%00+00
Green 6.9%1 6.9%00+01
Other 2.1%0 2.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Hove and Portslade' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Godalming and Ash', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Wycombe (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Southampton Test (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
70464Hove and Portslade Peter Kyle74,06370.112.852.46.08.814.30.05.6LABLAB
85449Oxford East Anneliese Dodds71,84554.812.
121413Portsmouth South Stephen Morgan73,71152.814.548.412.614.
172362Reading Central Matt Rodda73,60061.519.847.78.88.614.20.00.9LABLAB
182352Southampton Test Satvir Kaur65,52054.618.544.59.114.710.02.21.0LABLAB
209325Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven Chris Ward68,78459.220.344.
241292Brighton Pavilion Sin Berry74,78670.07.627.73.15.455.00.01.1GreenGreen
245289Worthing East and Shoreham Tom Rutland74,73865.725.745.16.514.
248286Hastings and Rye Helena Dollimore75,93960.622.841.65.616.
252282Canterbury Rosie Duffield71,17166.423.
256278Dover and Deal Mike Tapp76,40662.521.739.65.523.
263271Slough Tan Dhesi81,51253.117.333.
266268Thanet East Polly Billington74,94057.023.639.93.320.
270264Southampton Itchen Darren Paffey68,37955.725.441.
278256Milton Keynes Central Emily Darlington81,07858.927.142.310.313.
290244Basingstoke Luke Murphy78,48762.429.542.76.512.
305229Milton Keynes North Chris Curtis70,70965.
308226Aldershot Alex Baker78,56961.829.040.78.416.
309225Crawley Peter Lamb75,56960.426.838.24.818.
326208Wycombe Emma Reynolds73,84660.425.735.99.610.
330204Gillingham and Rainham Naushabah Khan73,52356.
334200Isle of Wight West Richard Quigley55,40661.929.438.
342192Folkestone and Hythe Tony Vaughan70,05661.726.
348186Worthing West Beccy Cooper77,03866.232.540.25.314.
356178Rochester and Strood Lauren Rae Edwards74,25757.429.336.24.523.
357177Banbury Sean Woodcock73,19365.831.638.
360174Gravesham Lauren Sullivan73,08859.
369165Buckingham and Bletchley Callum Anderson74,83263.731.936.
371163Chatham and Aylesford Tristan Osborne75,10954.428.633.55.424.
380154Ashford Sojan Joseph76,21261.628.732.55.321.
383151Reading West and Mid Berkshire Olivia Bailey68,78667.732.134.911.
386148Dartford Jim Dickson75,42659.031.934.64.921.
391143Portsmouth North Amanda Martin70,44659.
394140Earley and Woodley Yuan Yang73,54862.437.839.713.
395139Bracknell Peter Swallow71,65661.232.033.710.917.
402132Aylesbury Laura Elizabeth Kyrke-Smith79,16963.128.930.220.913.
404130Sittingbourne and Sheppey Kevin McKenna79,06751.928.329.13.425.
415119Havant Alan Mak72,34658.330.830.67.823.
430104Faversham and Kent Mid Helen Whately74,30162.731.828.68.921.
433101Spelthorne Lincoln Jopp73,78262.630.427.018.917.
43599Maidstone and Malling Helen Grant76,44960.730.526.913.820.
43698Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Ali Griffiths77,56561.732.829.110.721.
44589Herne Bay and Sandwich Roger Gale77,84162.735.330.25.621.
44687Oxford West and Abingdon Layla Moran71,31864.518.513.
44787Bexhill and Battle Kieran Mullan72,20966.
45084Reigate Rebecca Paul77,10168.935.429.412.713.
45381Hampshire North West Kit Malthouse78,62964.635.028.515.
46964Sussex Mid Alison Bennett75,96970.227.217.639.711.
48549New Forest West Desmond Swayne68,64467.535.423.317.716.
48648Fareham and Waterlooville Suella Braverman77,69164.535.022.919.
48747Isle of Wight East Joe Robertson55,85561.030.618.410.420.918.50.01.2CONCON
48944Bicester and Woodstock Calum Alexander Miller74,35067.528.816.438.710.
49143Gosport Caroline Dinenage73,26160.440.326.
49241Didcot and Wantage Olly Glover80,68967.828.414.739.811.
49638Windsor Jack Rankin73,33461.736.522.
49935Surrey East Claire Coutinho73,30767.135.620.418.
50033Epsom and Ewell Helen Maguire77,53070.331.215.338.
50033Eastleigh Liz Jarvis69,96566.331.115.134.413.
50132Tunbridge Wells Mike Martin78,73868.927.611.443.612.
50232Weald of Kent Katie Jane Lotte Lam75,98866.739.823.27.820.
50330Woking Will Forster72,97766.
50430Sussex Weald Nus Ghani72,89767.534.116.720.
50529Runnymede and Weybridge Ben Spencer73,61065.638.220.622.413.
50826East Grinstead and Uckfield Mims Davies75,38566.838.420.721.
51123New Forest East Julian Lewis70,61864.038.519.716.
51221Eastbourne Josh Babarinde72,59262.825.35.952.
51320Chichester Jessica Brown-Fuller78,37466.325.
51320Lewes James MacCleary76,16669.826.86.750.611.
51420Hamble Valley Paul Holmes80,53767.136.416.227.515.
51519Buckinghamshire Mid Greg Smith75,41571.537.417.026.512.
51914Guildford Ze Franklin70,73468.330.
52014Farnham and Bordon Gregory Stafford75,91869.835.813.833.
52212Tonbridge Tom Tugendhat72,79969.140.818.68.515.
52311Arundel and South Downs Andrew Griffith77,96970.240.217.918.013.510.10.00.3CONCON
5249Winchester Danny Chambers78,28972.928.25.352.
5249Dorking and Horley Chris Coghlan71,85069.531.18.141.913.
5259Sevenoaks Laura Trott73,70867.736.713.625.918.
5258Witney Charlie Maynard75,44867.032.69.441.
5268Beaconsfield Joy Morrissey72,75165.638.815.127.412.
5267Horsham John Milne79,15070.134.510.839.
5276Esher and Walton Monica Harding74,04272.830.35.352.
5285Wokingham Clive Jones75,08271.932.26.747.
5285Maidenhead Joshua Peter Reynolds75,68766.537.711.443.
5285Surrey Heath Al Pinkerton71,93466.433.06.644.813.
5285Henley and Thame Freddie Van Mierlo73,74972.133.26.745.
5304Hampshire East Damian Hinds71,96569.637.09.934.412.
5303Newbury Lee Raymond James Dillon71,98668.035.37.540.
5312Hampshire North East Alex Brewer76,97572.
5312Chesham and Amersham Sarah Green74,88972.734.86.444.
5322Romsey and Southampton North Caroline Nokes71,87169.639.89.335.411.
5331Godalming and Ash Jeremy Hunt74,16873.742.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.