South East: Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 30.6%30 23.6%118-1713
LAB 24.5%36 17.9%022-2214
LIB 21.9%24 20.3%11+024
Reform 14.0%0 27.0%390+3939
Green 6.9%1 9.3%00+01
Other 2.1%0 1.9%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Hove and Portslade' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Godalming and Ash', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Godalming and Ash (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Hove and Portslade (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
31156Hove and Portslade Peter Kyle74,06370.19.036.710.821.618.70.03.3LABLAB
42145Oxford East Anneliese Dodds71,84554.88.833.113.617.217.64.85.0LABLAB
70117Portsmouth South Stephen Morgan73,71152.811.932.512.729.411.70.01.8LABLAB
87100Reading Central Matt Rodda73,60061.516.134.011.920.416.50.01.2LABLAB
9988Worthing East and Shoreham Tom Rutland74,73865.717.333.89.828.89.10.01.2LABLAB
10582Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven Chris Ward68,78459.215.931.411.717.419.90.03.7LABLAB
10878Hastings and Rye Helena Dollimore75,93960.614.829.98.731.413.61.20.5LABReform
10878Southampton Test Satvir Kaur65,52054.613.928.910.530.912.52.60.8LABReform
10978Canterbury Rosie Duffield71,17166.416.531.511.026.213.80.00.9LABLAB
10977Brighton Pavilion Siân Berry74,78670.06.621.48.213.548.90.01.4GreenGreen
11868Southampton Itchen Darren Paffey68,37955.715.428.09.235.710.60.01.0LABReform
12067Milton Keynes Central Emily Darlington81,07858.918.229.913.527.110.50.00.8LABLAB
12364Milton Keynes North Chris Curtis70,70965.020.230.610.728.19.90.00.6LABLAB
12561Slough Tan Dhesi81,51253.113.022.29.426.18.318.22.8LABReform
12759Dover and Deal Mike Tapp76,40662.517.625.48.836.09.80.32.2LABReform
12859Wycombe Emma Reynolds73,84660.418.225.914.525.18.55.32.5LABLAB
13255Banbury Sean Woodcock73,19365.821.428.611.728.48.20.01.7LABLAB
13353Thanet East Polly Billington74,94057.018.624.87.533.713.30.02.1LABReform
13551Buckingham and Bletchley Callum Anderson74,83263.721.526.712.030.58.20.01.0LABReform
13849Basingstoke Luke Murphy78,48762.423.427.410.326.011.40.01.4LABLAB
13948Earley and Woodley Yuan Yang73,54862.425.329.116.317.810.30.01.2LABLAB
13947Aldershot Alex Baker78,56961.822.726.311.229.88.90.01.1LABReform
14046Aylesbury Laura Elizabeth Kyrke-Smith79,16963.119.823.218.828.67.81.50.2LABReform
14145Crawley Peter Lamb75,56960.420.723.98.831.19.85.30.4LABReform
14244Isle of Wight West Richard Quigley55,40661.922.325.010.331.49.90.01.1LABReform
14343Gillingham and Rainham Naushabah Khan73,52356.020.322.69.836.49.30.01.7LABReform
14343Folkestone and Hythe Tony Vaughan70,05661.720.322.27.736.911.30.01.5LABReform
14542Worthing West Beccy Cooper77,03866.225.727.29.226.99.80.01.2LABLAB
14541Rochester and Strood Lauren Rae Edwards74,25757.420.721.48.738.58.81.30.6LABReform
14541Chatham and Aylesford Tristan Osborne75,10954.420.019.99.139.49.11.31.1LABReform
14541Gravesham Lauren Sullivan73,08859.222.722.38.636.98.60.00.9LABReform
14541Ashford Sojan Joseph76,21261.622.620.88.833.811.80.02.2LABReform
14541Portsmouth North Amanda Martin70,44659.022.720.910.337.08.10.01.0LABReform
14641Reading West and Mid Berkshire Olivia Bailey68,78667.726.224.313.724.110.10.01.6LABCON
14838Dartford Jim Dickson75,42659.023.320.79.735.410.10.00.9LABReform
14838Sittingbourne and Sheppey Kevin McKenna79,06751.919.516.88.042.77.60.05.4LABReform
14838Havant Alan Mak72,34658.321.618.810.438.48.72.00.0CONReform
14838Oxford West and Abingdon Layla Moran71,31864.517.014.038.619.79.10.01.5LIBLIB
14937Sussex Mid Alison Bennett75,96970.220.316.831.923.66.40.00.9LIBLIB
15135Bracknell Peter Swallow71,65661.225.922.013.428.58.70.01.6LABReform
15333Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Ali Griffiths77,56561.723.218.212.137.67.20.01.6CONReform
15333Faversham and Mid Kent Helen Whately74,30162.723.518.511.734.910.30.01.1CONReform
15531Herne Bay and Sandwich Roger Gale77,84162.725.219.49.236.58.80.00.9CONReform
15531Spelthorne Lincoln Jopp73,78262.624.818.817.629.58.20.01.0CONReform
15630Bexhill and Battle Kieran Mullan72,20966.124.918.611.232.38.50.04.5CONReform
15630Didcot and Wantage Olly Glover80,68967.820.614.231.525.77.20.00.8LIBLIB
15729Maidstone and Malling Helen Grant76,44960.724.718.113.931.410.60.01.2CONReform
15729Hampshire North West Kit Malthouse78,62964.625.918.816.129.58.40.01.3CONReform
16027Reigate Rebecca Paul77,10168.929.521.714.722.410.90.00.7CONCON
16026Eastleigh Liz Jarvis69,96566.321.513.727.229.27.30.01.1LIBReform
16026Epsom and Ewell Helen Maguire77,53070.323.115.031.623.25.70.01.3LIBLIB
16125Woking Will Forster72,97766.019.811.039.622.66.30.00.7LIBLIB
16224Eastbourne Josh Babarinde72,59262.817.38.036.531.65.70.00.9LIBLIB
16224Lewes James MacCleary76,16669.819.29.238.326.75.80.00.9LIBLIB
16224New Forest West Desmond Swayne68,64467.526.716.617.630.17.60.01.4CONReform
16224Fareham and Waterlooville Suella Braverman77,69164.525.615.518.232.66.80.01.3CONReform
16323Isle of Wight East Joe Robertson55,85561.023.212.311.035.116.70.01.6CONReform
16323Bicester and Woodstock Calum Alexander Miller74,35067.524.413.431.122.17.90.01.1LIBLIB
16323Gosport Caroline Dinenage73,26160.427.616.311.235.97.30.01.7CONReform
16620Guildford Zöe Franklin70,73468.322.910.637.920.87.00.00.8LIBLIB
16620Winchester Danny Chambers78,28972.922.09.041.419.96.70.01.0LIBLIB
16620Weald of Kent Katie Jane Lotte Lam75,98866.729.516.211.232.89.50.00.9CONReform
16620Tunbridge Wells Mike Martin78,73868.924.210.734.921.67.20.01.3LIBLIB
16720Windsor Jack Rankin73,33461.730.116.520.621.28.11.32.1CONCON
16719Sussex Weald Nus Ghani72,89767.526.012.419.231.28.80.02.4CONReform
16819East Grinstead and Uckfield Mims Davies75,38566.829.315.421.717.211.50.04.9CONCON
16918Surrey East Claire Coutinho73,30767.129.615.617.626.98.20.02.1CONCON
16917Esher and Walton Monica Harding74,04272.823.59.042.419.54.90.00.7LIBLIB
16917New Forest East Julian Lewis70,61864.028.113.616.132.18.20.01.8CONReform
17115Chichester Jessica Brown-Fuller78,37466.322.47.336.426.76.10.01.1LIBLIB
17214Hamble Valley Paul Holmes80,53767.127.712.124.128.26.80.01.1CONReform
17314Runnymede and Weybridge Ben Spencer73,61065.631.615.820.823.56.90.01.3CONCON
17413Buckinghamshire Mid Greg Smith75,41571.529.413.124.924.17.30.01.2CONCON
17611Tonbridge Tom Tugendhat72,79969.130.913.411.728.214.00.01.8CONCON
17710Arundel and South Downs Andrew Griffith77,96970.231.013.618.525.710.10.01.0CONCON
1779Sevenoaks Laura Trott73,70867.728.410.523.730.26.00.01.3CONReform
1798Farnham and Bordon Gregory Stafford75,91869.830.312.028.121.47.10.01.1CONCON
1797Witney Charlie Maynard75,44867.027.38.932.323.86.30.01.3LIBLIB
1797Dorking and Horley Chris Coghlan71,85069.526.98.433.423.57.10.00.8LIBLIB
1797Horsham John Milne79,15070.128.99.931.222.16.60.01.2LIBLIB
1806Wokingham Clive Jones75,08271.928.08.138.418.36.40.00.8LIBLIB
1806Maidenhead Joshua Peter Reynolds75,68766.530.910.935.113.97.00.02.2LIBLIB
1816Beaconsfield Joy Morrissey72,75165.632.412.424.922.36.40.01.6CONCON
1815Hampshire East Damian Hinds71,96569.628.88.729.425.16.60.01.3CONLIB
1815Surrey Heath Al Pinkerton71,93466.428.07.435.123.45.20.00.9LIBLIB
1815Henley and Thame Freddie Van Mierlo73,74972.128.88.036.219.46.20.01.5LIBLIB
1815Hampshire North East Alex Brewer76,97572.229.58.432.622.95.20.01.4LIBLIB
1815Chesham and Amersham Sarah Green74,88972.729.58.335.319.05.81.80.3LIBLIB
1815Newbury Lee Raymond James Dillon71,98668.029.07.631.223.27.80.01.2LIBLIB
1825Romsey and Southampton North Caroline Nokes71,87169.632.38.428.523.26.60.01.0CONCON
1843Godalming and Ash Jeremy Hunt74,16873.735.66.533.019.24.80.00.9CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.