Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CON | 30.6% | 30 | 23.6% | 1 | 18 | -17 | 13 |
LAB | 24.5% | 36 | 17.9% | 0 | 22 | -22 | 14 |
LIB | 21.9% | 24 | 20.3% | 1 | 1 | +0 | 24 |
Reform | 14.0% | 0 | 27.0% | 39 | 0 | +39 | 39 |
Green | 6.9% | 1 | 9.3% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
Other | 2.1% | 0 | 1.9% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Hove and Portslade' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Godalming and Ash', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Godalming and Ash (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Hove and Portslade (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
LAB Seats | CON Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
31 | 156 | Hove and Portslade | Peter Kyle | 74,063 | 70.1 | 9.0 | 36.7 | 10.8 | 21.6 | 18.7 | 0.0 | 3.3 | LAB | LAB |
42 | 145 | Oxford East | Anneliese Dodds | 71,845 | 54.8 | 8.8 | 33.1 | 13.6 | 17.2 | 17.6 | 4.8 | 5.0 | LAB | LAB |
70 | 117 | Portsmouth South | Stephen Morgan | 73,711 | 52.8 | 11.9 | 32.5 | 12.7 | 29.4 | 11.7 | 0.0 | 1.8 | LAB | LAB |
87 | 100 | Reading Central | Matt Rodda | 73,600 | 61.5 | 16.1 | 34.0 | 11.9 | 20.4 | 16.5 | 0.0 | 1.2 | LAB | LAB |
99 | 88 | Worthing East and Shoreham | Tom Rutland | 74,738 | 65.7 | 17.3 | 33.8 | 9.8 | 28.8 | 9.1 | 0.0 | 1.2 | LAB | LAB |
105 | 82 | Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven | Chris Ward | 68,784 | 59.2 | 15.9 | 31.4 | 11.7 | 17.4 | 19.9 | 0.0 | 3.7 | LAB | LAB |
108 | 78 | Hastings and Rye | Helena Dollimore | 75,939 | 60.6 | 14.8 | 29.9 | 8.7 | 31.4 | 13.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | LAB | Reform |
108 | 78 | Southampton Test | Satvir Kaur | 65,520 | 54.6 | 13.9 | 28.9 | 10.5 | 30.9 | 12.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | LAB | Reform |
109 | 78 | Canterbury | Rosie Duffield | 71,171 | 66.4 | 16.5 | 31.5 | 11.0 | 26.2 | 13.8 | 0.0 | 0.9 | LAB | LAB |
109 | 77 | Brighton Pavilion | Siân Berry | 74,786 | 70.0 | 6.6 | 21.4 | 8.2 | 13.5 | 48.9 | 0.0 | 1.4 | Green | Green |
118 | 68 | Southampton Itchen | Darren Paffey | 68,379 | 55.7 | 15.4 | 28.0 | 9.2 | 35.7 | 10.6 | 0.0 | 1.0 | LAB | Reform |
120 | 67 | Milton Keynes Central | Emily Darlington | 81,078 | 58.9 | 18.2 | 29.9 | 13.5 | 27.1 | 10.5 | 0.0 | 0.8 | LAB | LAB |
123 | 64 | Milton Keynes North | Chris Curtis | 70,709 | 65.0 | 20.2 | 30.6 | 10.7 | 28.1 | 9.9 | 0.0 | 0.6 | LAB | LAB |
125 | 61 | Slough | Tan Dhesi | 81,512 | 53.1 | 13.0 | 22.2 | 9.4 | 26.1 | 8.3 | 18.2 | 2.8 | LAB | Reform |
127 | 59 | Dover and Deal | Mike Tapp | 76,406 | 62.5 | 17.6 | 25.4 | 8.8 | 36.0 | 9.8 | 0.3 | 2.2 | LAB | Reform |
128 | 59 | Wycombe | Emma Reynolds | 73,846 | 60.4 | 18.2 | 25.9 | 14.5 | 25.1 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | LAB | LAB |
132 | 55 | Banbury | Sean Woodcock | 73,193 | 65.8 | 21.4 | 28.6 | 11.7 | 28.4 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 1.7 | LAB | LAB |
133 | 53 | Thanet East | Polly Billington | 74,940 | 57.0 | 18.6 | 24.8 | 7.5 | 33.7 | 13.3 | 0.0 | 2.1 | LAB | Reform |
135 | 51 | Buckingham and Bletchley | Callum Anderson | 74,832 | 63.7 | 21.5 | 26.7 | 12.0 | 30.5 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 | LAB | Reform |
138 | 49 | Basingstoke | Luke Murphy | 78,487 | 62.4 | 23.4 | 27.4 | 10.3 | 26.0 | 11.4 | 0.0 | 1.4 | LAB | LAB |
139 | 48 | Earley and Woodley | Yuan Yang | 73,548 | 62.4 | 25.3 | 29.1 | 16.3 | 17.8 | 10.3 | 0.0 | 1.2 | LAB | LAB |
139 | 47 | Aldershot | Alex Baker | 78,569 | 61.8 | 22.7 | 26.3 | 11.2 | 29.8 | 8.9 | 0.0 | 1.1 | LAB | Reform |
140 | 46 | Aylesbury | Laura Elizabeth Kyrke-Smith | 79,169 | 63.1 | 19.8 | 23.2 | 18.8 | 28.6 | 7.8 | 1.5 | 0.2 | LAB | Reform |
141 | 45 | Crawley | Peter Lamb | 75,569 | 60.4 | 20.7 | 23.9 | 8.8 | 31.1 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 0.4 | LAB | Reform |
142 | 44 | Isle of Wight West | Richard Quigley | 55,406 | 61.9 | 22.3 | 25.0 | 10.3 | 31.4 | 9.9 | 0.0 | 1.1 | LAB | Reform |
143 | 43 | Gillingham and Rainham | Naushabah Khan | 73,523 | 56.0 | 20.3 | 22.6 | 9.8 | 36.4 | 9.3 | 0.0 | 1.7 | LAB | Reform |
143 | 43 | Folkestone and Hythe | Tony Vaughan | 70,056 | 61.7 | 20.3 | 22.2 | 7.7 | 36.9 | 11.3 | 0.0 | 1.5 | LAB | Reform |
145 | 42 | Worthing West | Beccy Cooper | 77,038 | 66.2 | 25.7 | 27.2 | 9.2 | 26.9 | 9.8 | 0.0 | 1.2 | LAB | LAB |
145 | 41 | Rochester and Strood | Lauren Rae Edwards | 74,257 | 57.4 | 20.7 | 21.4 | 8.7 | 38.5 | 8.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | LAB | Reform |
145 | 41 | Chatham and Aylesford | Tristan Osborne | 75,109 | 54.4 | 20.0 | 19.9 | 9.1 | 39.4 | 9.1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | LAB | Reform |
145 | 41 | Gravesham | Lauren Sullivan | 73,088 | 59.2 | 22.7 | 22.3 | 8.6 | 36.9 | 8.6 | 0.0 | 0.9 | LAB | Reform |
145 | 41 | Ashford | Sojan Joseph | 76,212 | 61.6 | 22.6 | 20.8 | 8.8 | 33.8 | 11.8 | 0.0 | 2.2 | LAB | Reform |
145 | 41 | Portsmouth North | Amanda Martin | 70,446 | 59.0 | 22.7 | 20.9 | 10.3 | 37.0 | 8.1 | 0.0 | 1.0 | LAB | Reform |
146 | 41 | Reading West and Mid Berkshire | Olivia Bailey | 68,786 | 67.7 | 26.2 | 24.3 | 13.7 | 24.1 | 10.1 | 0.0 | 1.6 | LAB | CON |
148 | 38 | Dartford | Jim Dickson | 75,426 | 59.0 | 23.3 | 20.7 | 9.7 | 35.4 | 10.1 | 0.0 | 0.9 | LAB | Reform |
148 | 38 | Sittingbourne and Sheppey | Kevin McKenna | 79,067 | 51.9 | 19.5 | 16.8 | 8.0 | 42.7 | 7.6 | 0.0 | 5.4 | LAB | Reform |
148 | 38 | Havant | Alan Mak | 72,346 | 58.3 | 21.6 | 18.8 | 10.4 | 38.4 | 8.7 | 2.0 | 0.0 | CON | Reform |
148 | 38 | Oxford West and Abingdon | Layla Moran | 71,318 | 64.5 | 17.0 | 14.0 | 38.6 | 19.7 | 9.1 | 0.0 | 1.5 | LIB | LIB |
149 | 37 | Sussex Mid | Alison Bennett | 75,969 | 70.2 | 20.3 | 16.8 | 31.9 | 23.6 | 6.4 | 0.0 | 0.9 | LIB | LIB |
151 | 35 | Bracknell | Peter Swallow | 71,656 | 61.2 | 25.9 | 22.0 | 13.4 | 28.5 | 8.7 | 0.0 | 1.6 | LAB | Reform |
153 | 33 | Bognor Regis and Littlehampton | Ali Griffiths | 77,565 | 61.7 | 23.2 | 18.2 | 12.1 | 37.6 | 7.2 | 0.0 | 1.6 | CON | Reform |
153 | 33 | Faversham and Mid Kent | Helen Whately | 74,301 | 62.7 | 23.5 | 18.5 | 11.7 | 34.9 | 10.3 | 0.0 | 1.1 | CON | Reform |
155 | 31 | Herne Bay and Sandwich | Roger Gale | 77,841 | 62.7 | 25.2 | 19.4 | 9.2 | 36.5 | 8.8 | 0.0 | 0.9 | CON | Reform |
155 | 31 | Spelthorne | Lincoln Jopp | 73,782 | 62.6 | 24.8 | 18.8 | 17.6 | 29.5 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 | CON | Reform |
156 | 30 | Bexhill and Battle | Kieran Mullan | 72,209 | 66.1 | 24.9 | 18.6 | 11.2 | 32.3 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 4.5 | CON | Reform |
156 | 30 | Didcot and Wantage | Olly Glover | 80,689 | 67.8 | 20.6 | 14.2 | 31.5 | 25.7 | 7.2 | 0.0 | 0.8 | LIB | LIB |
157 | 29 | Maidstone and Malling | Helen Grant | 76,449 | 60.7 | 24.7 | 18.1 | 13.9 | 31.4 | 10.6 | 0.0 | 1.2 | CON | Reform |
157 | 29 | Hampshire North West | Kit Malthouse | 78,629 | 64.6 | 25.9 | 18.8 | 16.1 | 29.5 | 8.4 | 0.0 | 1.3 | CON | Reform |
160 | 27 | Reigate | Rebecca Paul | 77,101 | 68.9 | 29.5 | 21.7 | 14.7 | 22.4 | 10.9 | 0.0 | 0.7 | CON | CON |
160 | 26 | Eastleigh | Liz Jarvis | 69,965 | 66.3 | 21.5 | 13.7 | 27.2 | 29.2 | 7.3 | 0.0 | 1.1 | LIB | Reform |
160 | 26 | Epsom and Ewell | Helen Maguire | 77,530 | 70.3 | 23.1 | 15.0 | 31.6 | 23.2 | 5.7 | 0.0 | 1.3 | LIB | LIB |
161 | 25 | Woking | Will Forster | 72,977 | 66.0 | 19.8 | 11.0 | 39.6 | 22.6 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | LIB | LIB |
162 | 24 | Eastbourne | Josh Babarinde | 72,592 | 62.8 | 17.3 | 8.0 | 36.5 | 31.6 | 5.7 | 0.0 | 0.9 | LIB | LIB |
162 | 24 | Lewes | James MacCleary | 76,166 | 69.8 | 19.2 | 9.2 | 38.3 | 26.7 | 5.8 | 0.0 | 0.9 | LIB | LIB |
162 | 24 | New Forest West | Desmond Swayne | 68,644 | 67.5 | 26.7 | 16.6 | 17.6 | 30.1 | 7.6 | 0.0 | 1.4 | CON | Reform |
162 | 24 | Fareham and Waterlooville | Suella Braverman | 77,691 | 64.5 | 25.6 | 15.5 | 18.2 | 32.6 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 1.3 | CON | Reform |
163 | 23 | Isle of Wight East | Joe Robertson | 55,855 | 61.0 | 23.2 | 12.3 | 11.0 | 35.1 | 16.7 | 0.0 | 1.6 | CON | Reform |
163 | 23 | Bicester and Woodstock | Calum Alexander Miller | 74,350 | 67.5 | 24.4 | 13.4 | 31.1 | 22.1 | 7.9 | 0.0 | 1.1 | LIB | LIB |
163 | 23 | Gosport | Caroline Dinenage | 73,261 | 60.4 | 27.6 | 16.3 | 11.2 | 35.9 | 7.3 | 0.0 | 1.7 | CON | Reform |
166 | 20 | Guildford | Zöe Franklin | 70,734 | 68.3 | 22.9 | 10.6 | 37.9 | 20.8 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | LIB | LIB |
166 | 20 | Winchester | Danny Chambers | 78,289 | 72.9 | 22.0 | 9.0 | 41.4 | 19.9 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 1.0 | LIB | LIB |
166 | 20 | Weald of Kent | Katie Jane Lotte Lam | 75,988 | 66.7 | 29.5 | 16.2 | 11.2 | 32.8 | 9.5 | 0.0 | 0.9 | CON | Reform |
166 | 20 | Tunbridge Wells | Mike Martin | 78,738 | 68.9 | 24.2 | 10.7 | 34.9 | 21.6 | 7.2 | 0.0 | 1.3 | LIB | LIB |
167 | 20 | Windsor | Jack Rankin | 73,334 | 61.7 | 30.1 | 16.5 | 20.6 | 21.2 | 8.1 | 1.3 | 2.1 | CON | CON |
167 | 19 | Sussex Weald | Nus Ghani | 72,897 | 67.5 | 26.0 | 12.4 | 19.2 | 31.2 | 8.8 | 0.0 | 2.4 | CON | Reform |
168 | 19 | East Grinstead and Uckfield | Mims Davies | 75,385 | 66.8 | 29.3 | 15.4 | 21.7 | 17.2 | 11.5 | 0.0 | 4.9 | CON | CON |
169 | 18 | Surrey East | Claire Coutinho | 73,307 | 67.1 | 29.6 | 15.6 | 17.6 | 26.9 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 2.1 | CON | CON |
169 | 17 | Esher and Walton | Monica Harding | 74,042 | 72.8 | 23.5 | 9.0 | 42.4 | 19.5 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 0.7 | LIB | LIB |
169 | 17 | New Forest East | Julian Lewis | 70,618 | 64.0 | 28.1 | 13.6 | 16.1 | 32.1 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 1.8 | CON | Reform |
171 | 15 | Chichester | Jessica Brown-Fuller | 78,374 | 66.3 | 22.4 | 7.3 | 36.4 | 26.7 | 6.1 | 0.0 | 1.1 | LIB | LIB |
172 | 14 | Hamble Valley | Paul Holmes | 80,537 | 67.1 | 27.7 | 12.1 | 24.1 | 28.2 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 1.1 | CON | Reform |
173 | 14 | Runnymede and Weybridge | Ben Spencer | 73,610 | 65.6 | 31.6 | 15.8 | 20.8 | 23.5 | 6.9 | 0.0 | 1.3 | CON | CON |
174 | 13 | Buckinghamshire Mid | Greg Smith | 75,415 | 71.5 | 29.4 | 13.1 | 24.9 | 24.1 | 7.3 | 0.0 | 1.2 | CON | CON |
176 | 11 | Tonbridge | Tom Tugendhat | 72,799 | 69.1 | 30.9 | 13.4 | 11.7 | 28.2 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 1.8 | CON | CON |
177 | 10 | Arundel and South Downs | Andrew Griffith | 77,969 | 70.2 | 31.0 | 13.6 | 18.5 | 25.7 | 10.1 | 0.0 | 1.0 | CON | CON |
177 | 9 | Sevenoaks | Laura Trott | 73,708 | 67.7 | 28.4 | 10.5 | 23.7 | 30.2 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | CON | Reform |
179 | 8 | Farnham and Bordon | Gregory Stafford | 75,918 | 69.8 | 30.3 | 12.0 | 28.1 | 21.4 | 7.1 | 0.0 | 1.1 | CON | CON |
179 | 7 | Witney | Charlie Maynard | 75,448 | 67.0 | 27.3 | 8.9 | 32.3 | 23.8 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 1.3 | LIB | LIB |
179 | 7 | Dorking and Horley | Chris Coghlan | 71,850 | 69.5 | 26.9 | 8.4 | 33.4 | 23.5 | 7.1 | 0.0 | 0.8 | LIB | LIB |
179 | 7 | Horsham | John Milne | 79,150 | 70.1 | 28.9 | 9.9 | 31.2 | 22.1 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 1.2 | LIB | LIB |
180 | 6 | Wokingham | Clive Jones | 75,082 | 71.9 | 28.0 | 8.1 | 38.4 | 18.3 | 6.4 | 0.0 | 0.8 | LIB | LIB |
180 | 6 | Maidenhead | Joshua Peter Reynolds | 75,687 | 66.5 | 30.9 | 10.9 | 35.1 | 13.9 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 2.2 | LIB | LIB |
181 | 6 | Beaconsfield | Joy Morrissey | 72,751 | 65.6 | 32.4 | 12.4 | 24.9 | 22.3 | 6.4 | 0.0 | 1.6 | CON | CON |
181 | 5 | Hampshire East | Damian Hinds | 71,965 | 69.6 | 28.8 | 8.7 | 29.4 | 25.1 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 1.3 | CON | LIB |
181 | 5 | Surrey Heath | Al Pinkerton | 71,934 | 66.4 | 28.0 | 7.4 | 35.1 | 23.4 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 0.9 | LIB | LIB |
181 | 5 | Henley and Thame | Freddie Van Mierlo | 73,749 | 72.1 | 28.8 | 8.0 | 36.2 | 19.4 | 6.2 | 0.0 | 1.5 | LIB | LIB |
181 | 5 | Hampshire North East | Alex Brewer | 76,975 | 72.2 | 29.5 | 8.4 | 32.6 | 22.9 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 1.4 | LIB | LIB |
181 | 5 | Chesham and Amersham | Sarah Green | 74,889 | 72.7 | 29.5 | 8.3 | 35.3 | 19.0 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.3 | LIB | LIB |
181 | 5 | Newbury | Lee Raymond James Dillon | 71,986 | 68.0 | 29.0 | 7.6 | 31.2 | 23.2 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 1.2 | LIB | LIB |
182 | 5 | Romsey and Southampton North | Caroline Nokes | 71,871 | 69.6 | 32.3 | 8.4 | 28.5 | 23.2 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 1.0 | CON | CON |
184 | 3 | Godalming and Ash | Jeremy Hunt | 74,168 | 73.7 | 35.6 | 6.5 | 33.0 | 19.2 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 0.9 | CON | CON |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.