South East: Majority Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 54.0%74 52.2%00+074
LAB 22.1%8 27.6%00+08
LIB 18.2%1 11.8%00+01
Brexit 0.3%0 0.2%00+00
Green 3.9%1 5.2%00+01
Other 1.4%0 3.1%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Oxford East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Meon Valley, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Aylesbury (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Wycombe (prediction: CON).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
55509Oxford East Anneliese Dodds78,30363.
75489Hove Peter Kyle74,31375.926.362.
83481Slough Tan Dhesi86,81858.829.
126438Brighton Kemptown Lloyd Russell-Moyle69,83369.533.
134430Southampton Test Alan Whitehead70,11664.233.853.
147417Portsmouth South Stephen Morgan74,18663.935.553.
161403Reading East Matt Rodda77,15272.536.
195368Brighton Pavilion Caroline Lucas79,05773.415.924.20.00.857.50.01.6GreenGreen
196368Canterbury Rosie Duffield80,20375.043.451.
234330Wycombe Steve Baker78,09870.143.442.
242322Hastings and Rye Sally-Ann Hart80,52467.447.745.
245319Reading West Alok Sharma74,13768.046.644.
253311Milton Keynes North Ben Everitt91,54568.347.643.
256308Southampton Itchen Royston Smith72,29965.648.743.
261303Milton Keynes South Iain Stewart96,36366.448.
278286Worthing East and Shoreham Tim Loughton75,19470.749.
294270Crawley Henry Smith74,20767.252.440.
316248Thanet South Craig Mackinlay73,22365.954.337.
323241Basingstoke Maria Miller82,92866.052.333.
324240Banbury Victoria Prentis90,11669.852.433.
325239Dover Natalie Elphicke76,35566.455.
332232Aylesbury Rob Butler86,66569.952.
333231Worthing West Peter Bottomley78,58569.553.933.
334229Oxford West and Abingdon Layla Moran76,95176.436.314.844.
344220Woking Jonathan Lord75,45471.547.123.621.
360204Reigate Crispin Blunt74,24271.652.126.510.
364200Runnymede and Weybridge Ben Spencer77,19669.
368196Sussex Mid Mims Davies85,14673.751.525.
370194Wantage David Johnston90,86773.948.922.422.
375189Epsom and Ewell Chris Grayling81,13873.351.724.414.
377187Aldershot Leo Docherty72,61766.056.629.
379185Rochester and Strood Kelly Tolhurst82,05663.358.
386178Gravesham Adam Holloway73,24264.960.432.
388176Guildford Angela Richardson77,72975.543.014.929.
389175Gillingham and Rainham Rehman Chishti73,54962.559.531.
392172Isle of Wight Bob Seely113,02165.954.325.
395169Portsmouth North Penny Mordaunt71,29964.459.530.
396168Bracknell James Sunderland78,97868.856.927.
401163Spelthorne Kwasi Kwarteng70,92969.857.
402162Wokingham John Redwood83,95373.847.817.628.
405159Folkestone and Hythe Damian Collins88,27266.858.328.
406158Dartford Gareth Johnson82,20965.761.
408156Thanet North Roger Gale72,75666.260.630.
416148Tunbridge Wells Greg Clark74,82373.053.322.
420144Witney Robert Courts83,84573.153.421.521.
424140Eastbourne Caroline Ansell79,30769.547.114.931.
429135Horsham Jeremy Quin86,73072.954.922.
432132Lewes Maria Caulfield71,50376.746.
433131Arundel and South Downs Andrew Griffith81,72675.
440124Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan72,54276.853.620.
441123Eastleigh Paul Holmes83,88070.353.620.
445119Romsey and Southampton North Caroline Nokes68,22875.352.418.723.
447117Chichester Gillian Keegan85,49971.656.
449115Ashford Damian Green89,55367.
453111Maidstone and The Weald Helen Grant76,10967.958.624.
457107Windsor Adam Afriyie75,03871.656.822.412.
459105Winchester Steve Brine75,58277.946.511.837.
460104Maidenhead Theresa May76,66873.755.921.
47292Esher and Walton Dominic Raab81,18477.747.511.735.
47391Henley John Howell76,64676.753.016.921.
47589Surrey South West Jeremy Hunt79,09676.351.515.
48183Buckingham Greg Smith83,14676.356.519.816.
48282Wealden Nus Ghani82,99273.459.
48480Faversham and Kent Mid Helen Whately73,40368.761.424.
48579Surrey East Claire Coutinho83,14871.857.920.910.
49173Bexhill and Battle Huw Merriman81,96372.161.824.
49371Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Nick Gibb77,44666.161.724.
49569Chatham and Aylesford Tracey Crouch71,64260.564.827.
49866Hampshire North West Kit Malthouse83,08370.960.322.
49965Sevenoaks Laura Trott71,75771.058.920.810.
50460Fareham Suella Braverman78,33773.161.923.
50955Hampshire East Damian Hinds76,47874.457.018.314.
51945Surrey Heath Michael Gove81,34972.156.816.418.
52044Tonbridge and Malling Tom Tugendhat79,27871.961.
52242Havant Alan Mak72,10363.763.622.
52341Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena78,95475.157.716.916.
52638Newbury Laura Farris83,41471.955.614.621.
52836Mole Valley Paul Beresford74,66576.553.612.425.
53331Gosport Caroline Dinenage73,54165.964.723.
53628New Forest East Julian Lewis73,54969.162.720.
53925Sittingbourne and Sheppey Gordon Henderson83,91761.265.823.
54123New Forest West Desmond Swayne70,86671.
54222Beaconsfield Joy Morrissey77,72074.554.311.
55014Meon Valley Flick Drummond75,73772.462.517.512.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.