South East: Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 30.6%30 26.6%97+232
LAB 24.5%36 19.0%020-2016
LIB 21.9%24 19.5%05-519
Reform 14.0%0 24.0%230+2323
Green 6.9%1 9.6%00+01
Other 2.1%0 1.5%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Hove and Portslade' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Godalming and Ash', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.

The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Godalming and Ash (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Hove and Portslade (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2024ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2024
Win
Pred
Win
24248Hove and Portslade Peter Kyle74,06370.110.940.911.613.919.70.03.1LABLAB
37235Oxford East Anneliese Dodds71,84554.811.537.414.410.018.04.64.0LABLAB
71201Portsmouth South Stephen Morgan73,71152.814.535.214.722.411.50.01.8LABLAB
90182Reading Central Matt Rodda73,60061.518.036.612.415.116.60.01.3LABLAB
96175Brighton Pavilion Siân Berry74,78670.07.224.88.38.649.80.01.2GreenGreen
103169Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven Chris Ward68,78459.217.333.213.712.420.30.03.1LABLAB
106166Southampton Test Satvir Kaur65,52054.617.132.411.822.812.32.90.7LABLAB
126146Canterbury Rosie Duffield71,17166.419.730.111.623.314.30.01.0LABLAB
130142Worthing East and Shoreham Tom Rutland74,73865.722.332.110.224.69.40.01.4LABLAB
136136Hastings and Rye Helena Dollimore75,93960.619.428.79.227.113.61.50.5LABLAB
153119Slough Tan Dhesi81,51253.119.226.29.217.47.817.82.3LABLAB
155116Southampton Itchen Darren Paffey68,37955.721.227.810.029.510.40.01.1LABReform
156116Milton Keynes Central Emily Darlington81,07858.923.429.812.223.310.30.00.9LABLAB
160111Dover and Deal Mike Tapp76,40662.521.026.59.333.18.80.21.2LABReform
162110Milton Keynes North Chris Curtis70,70965.024.630.010.324.79.70.00.7LABLAB
167105Banbury Sean Woodcock73,19365.824.628.112.325.28.30.01.5LABLAB
168103Thanet East Polly Billington74,94057.022.925.68.129.712.40.01.3LABReform
171101Wycombe Emma Reynolds73,84660.423.525.713.621.48.55.32.1LABLAB
172100Basingstoke Luke Murphy78,48762.426.828.59.923.510.40.00.8LABLAB
17695Isle of Wight West Richard Quigley55,40661.925.126.010.429.28.60.00.6LABReform
17695Buckingham and Bletchley Callum Anderson74,83263.725.626.311.827.28.00.01.1LABReform
17795Aldershot Alex Baker78,56961.827.227.310.526.38.00.00.7LABLAB
17794Crawley Peter Lamb75,56960.425.525.37.928.29.03.80.2LABReform
17992Folkestone and Hythe Tony Vaughan70,05661.723.623.18.133.810.50.00.9LABReform
18190Aylesbury Laura Elizabeth Kyrke-Smith79,16963.124.323.117.325.38.01.80.2LABReform
18289Oxford West and Abingdon Layla Moran71,31864.517.616.139.115.410.40.01.4LIBLIB
18389Worthing West Beccy Cooper77,03866.229.427.79.024.09.20.00.7LABCON
18587Reading West and Mid Berkshire Olivia Bailey68,78667.727.725.313.023.79.40.00.9LABCON
18686Earley and Woodley Yuan Yang73,54862.430.928.414.814.510.20.01.1LABCON
18685Gillingham and Rainham Naushabah Khan73,52356.026.123.09.431.09.30.01.2LABReform
18685Ashford Sojan Joseph76,21261.625.722.48.931.010.80.01.2LABReform
18685Rochester and Strood Lauren Rae Edwards74,25757.425.021.78.235.18.61.00.4LABReform
18982Chatham and Aylesford Tristan Osborne75,10954.425.620.58.734.19.21.10.7LABReform
18982Gravesham Lauren Sullivan73,08859.227.922.88.032.28.50.00.6LABReform
19379Bracknell Peter Swallow71,65661.229.323.112.625.88.20.01.0LABCON
19675Dartford Jim Dickson75,42659.028.221.38.431.210.20.00.7LABReform
19675Portsmouth North Amanda Martin70,44659.028.621.710.030.88.20.00.7LABReform
19675Sussex Mid Alison Bennett75,96970.223.916.930.520.47.30.01.0LIBLIB
19774Sittingbourne and Sheppey Kevin McKenna79,06751.925.118.19.236.77.50.03.4LABReform
20368Maidstone and Malling Helen Grant76,44960.727.519.513.328.910.10.00.7CONReform
20368Faversham and Mid Kent Helen Whately74,30162.726.818.711.331.610.90.00.7CONReform
20467Havant Alan Mak72,34658.327.218.910.132.99.31.70.0CONReform
20467Didcot and Wantage Olly Glover80,68967.823.314.930.322.97.80.00.8LIBLIB
20765Spelthorne Lincoln Jopp73,78262.628.719.616.126.88.10.00.7CONCON
20864Bexhill and Battle Kieran Mullan72,20966.128.619.312.028.58.70.02.9CONCON
20963Reigate Rebecca Paul77,10168.931.422.113.421.411.20.00.5CONCON
21062Hampshire North West Kit Malthouse78,62964.629.119.615.526.18.90.00.8CONCON
21556Bicester and Woodstock Calum Alexander Miller74,35067.525.615.329.221.48.00.00.6LIBLIB
21556Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Ali Griffiths77,56561.728.918.612.331.27.80.01.2CONReform
21655Herne Bay and Sandwich Roger Gale77,84162.730.019.49.131.59.40.00.7CONReform
22051Epsom and Ewell Helen Maguire77,53070.327.115.229.619.96.80.01.4LIBLIB
22249Isle of Wight East Joe Robertson55,85561.026.414.211.331.216.00.00.8CONReform
22349Eastleigh Liz Jarvis69,96566.326.914.626.023.57.80.01.1LIBCON
22348Woking Will Forster72,97766.024.211.836.319.17.70.00.8LIBLIB
22348Tunbridge Wells Mike Martin78,73868.925.012.432.821.47.70.00.7LIBLIB
22546Lewes James MacCleary76,16669.823.710.236.622.36.40.00.9LIBLIB
22745New Forest West Desmond Swayne68,64467.530.116.617.326.78.40.00.9CONCON
22744Eastbourne Josh Babarinde72,59262.822.99.335.724.76.50.00.9LIBLIB
22744Winchester Danny Chambers78,28972.923.39.540.118.57.70.00.9LIBLIB
22744Weald of Kent Katie Jane Lotte Lam75,98866.730.216.410.832.49.90.00.5CONReform
22844Surrey East Claire Coutinho73,30767.130.616.716.526.88.20.01.3CONCON
22942Guildford Zöe Franklin70,73468.325.311.235.818.58.30.00.9LIBLIB
23240Fareham and Waterlooville Suella Braverman77,69164.530.616.217.527.57.30.00.9CONCON
23339East Grinstead and Uckfield Mims Davies75,38566.831.416.521.515.012.50.03.1CONCON
23438Windsor Jack Rankin73,33461.732.517.419.120.28.51.01.3CONCON
23635Chichester Jessica Brown-Fuller78,37466.324.58.934.625.06.50.00.6LIBLIB
23735Sussex Weald Nus Ghani72,89767.529.113.418.727.79.60.01.5CONCON
23834Buckinghamshire Mid Greg Smith75,41571.529.714.023.624.17.90.00.7CONCON
24032Gosport Caroline Dinenage73,26160.433.717.311.229.17.50.01.2CONCON
24031Esher and Walton Monica Harding74,04272.826.29.739.417.26.60.00.9LIBLIB
24428Runnymede and Weybridge Ben Spencer73,61065.633.516.719.322.37.40.00.9CONCON
24527Arundel and South Downs Andrew Griffith77,96970.231.014.017.925.710.90.00.5CONCON
24526Witney Charlie Maynard75,44867.028.011.030.723.26.40.00.7LIBLIB
24626New Forest East Julian Lewis70,61864.031.714.315.628.48.80.01.2CONCON
24824Farnham and Bordon Gregory Stafford75,91869.831.313.426.320.87.50.00.7CONCON
24923Tonbridge Tom Tugendhat72,79969.132.214.111.326.215.20.01.1CONCON
24922Dorking and Horley Chris Coghlan71,85069.528.210.030.923.07.60.00.4LIBLIB
24922Henley and Thame Freddie Van Mierlo73,74972.127.99.734.420.76.50.00.8LIBLIB
25022Horsham John Milne79,15070.130.211.829.121.46.80.00.7LIBCON
25319Hamble Valley Paul Holmes80,53767.132.013.322.623.67.70.00.7CONCON
25517Sevenoaks Laura Trott73,70867.730.111.322.328.66.90.00.8CONCON
25615Wokingham Clive Jones75,08271.929.510.235.117.87.00.00.4LIBLIB
25814Maidenhead Joshua Peter Reynolds75,68766.533.312.931.913.07.60.01.3LIBCON
26111Newbury Lee Raymond James Dillon71,98668.030.59.629.621.68.10.00.6LIBCON
26210Hampshire East Damian Hinds71,96569.631.010.028.022.57.60.00.8CONCON
2639Hampshire North East Alex Brewer76,97572.231.09.830.821.36.20.00.9LIBCON
2638Surrey Heath Al Pinkerton71,93466.430.59.231.822.25.80.00.5LIBLIB
2638Chesham and Amersham Sarah Green74,88972.731.49.932.118.76.51.30.2LIBLIB
2648Beaconsfield Joy Morrissey72,75165.635.113.622.421.06.90.01.0CONCON
2657Romsey and Southampton North Caroline Nokes71,87169.633.210.527.022.36.50.00.5CONCON
2693Godalming and Ash Jeremy Hunt74,16873.735.98.231.019.05.40.00.5CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.