| Party | 2024 Votes | 2024 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 30.6% | 30 | 30.6% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 30 |
| LAB | 24.5% | 36 | 24.5% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 36 |
| LIB | 21.9% | 24 | 21.9% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 24 |
| Reform | 14.0% | 0 | 14.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Green | 6.9% | 1 | 6.9% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| Other | 2.1% | 0 | 2.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The seat 'Hove and Portslade' where the LAB−CON difference is biggest is at the top. And the seat 'Godalming and Ash', where the CON−LAB difference is biggest, is at the bottom. These extreme seats may not always have the largest majorities, due to the presence of other parties.
The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Wycombe (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Southampton Test (prediction: LAB).
The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.
More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.
| LAB Seats | CON Seats | Seat | MP at 2024 | Electorate | Turn Out% | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | Reform % | Green % | MIN % | OTH % | 2024 Win | Pred Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 464 | Hove and Portslade | Peter Kyle | 74,063 | 70.1 | 12.8 | 52.4 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 14.3 | 0.0 | 5.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 85 | 449 | Oxford East | Anneliese Dodds | 71,845 | 54.8 | 12.2 | 49.7 | 9.0 | 0.1 | 12.9 | 6.1 | 10.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 121 | 413 | Portsmouth South | Stephen Morgan | 73,711 | 52.8 | 14.5 | 48.4 | 12.6 | 14.7 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 1.8 | LAB | LAB |
| 172 | 362 | Reading Central | Matt Rodda | 73,600 | 61.5 | 19.8 | 47.7 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 14.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 182 | 352 | Southampton Test | Satvir Kaur | 65,520 | 54.6 | 18.5 | 44.5 | 9.1 | 14.7 | 10.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 209 | 325 | Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven | Chris Ward | 68,784 | 59.2 | 20.3 | 44.0 | 9.8 | 0.0 | 19.7 | 0.0 | 6.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 241 | 292 | Brighton Pavilion | Siân Berry | 74,786 | 70.0 | 7.6 | 27.7 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 55.0 | 0.0 | 1.1 | Green | Green |
| 245 | 289 | Worthing East and Shoreham | Tom Rutland | 74,738 | 65.7 | 25.7 | 45.1 | 6.5 | 14.6 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 1.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 248 | 286 | Hastings and Rye | Helena Dollimore | 75,939 | 60.6 | 22.8 | 41.6 | 5.6 | 16.1 | 12.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 252 | 282 | Canterbury | Rosie Duffield | 71,171 | 66.4 | 23.0 | 41.3 | 8.1 | 14.4 | 12.5 | 0.0 | 0.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 256 | 278 | Dover and Deal | Mike Tapp | 76,406 | 62.5 | 21.7 | 39.6 | 5.5 | 23.8 | 6.5 | 0.2 | 2.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 263 | 271 | Slough | Tan Dhesi | 81,512 | 53.1 | 17.3 | 33.9 | 4.9 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 25.5 | 6.3 | LAB | LAB |
| 266 | 268 | Thanet East | Polly Billington | 74,940 | 57.0 | 23.6 | 39.9 | 3.3 | 20.1 | 10.7 | 0.0 | 2.3 | LAB | LAB |
| 270 | 264 | Southampton Itchen | Darren Paffey | 68,379 | 55.7 | 25.4 | 41.5 | 7.1 | 18.0 | 7.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 278 | 256 | Milton Keynes Central | Emily Darlington | 81,078 | 58.9 | 27.1 | 42.3 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 0.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 290 | 244 | Basingstoke | Luke Murphy | 78,487 | 62.4 | 29.5 | 42.7 | 6.5 | 12.9 | 7.3 | 0.0 | 1.1 | LAB | LAB |
| 305 | 229 | Milton Keynes North | Chris Curtis | 70,709 | 65.0 | 30.2 | 42.0 | 7.3 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 308 | 226 | Aldershot | Alex Baker | 78,569 | 61.8 | 29.0 | 40.7 | 8.4 | 16.9 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 0.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 309 | 225 | Crawley | Peter Lamb | 75,569 | 60.4 | 26.8 | 38.2 | 4.9 | 18.5 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 0.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 326 | 208 | Wycombe | Emma Reynolds | 73,846 | 60.4 | 25.7 | 35.9 | 9.6 | 10.7 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 5.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 330 | 204 | Gillingham and Rainham | Naushabah Khan | 73,523 | 56.0 | 28.2 | 37.8 | 5.5 | 21.4 | 5.6 | 0.0 | 1.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 334 | 200 | Isle of Wight West | Richard Quigley | 55,406 | 61.9 | 29.4 | 38.6 | 8.0 | 17.0 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | LAB | LAB |
| 342 | 192 | Folkestone and Hythe | Tony Vaughan | 70,056 | 61.7 | 26.1 | 34.7 | 4.0 | 24.7 | 9.1 | 0.0 | 1.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 348 | 186 | Worthing West | Beccy Cooper | 77,038 | 66.2 | 32.5 | 40.2 | 5.3 | 14.8 | 6.4 | 0.0 | 0.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 356 | 178 | Rochester and Strood | Lauren Rae Edwards | 74,257 | 57.4 | 29.3 | 36.1 | 4.5 | 23.4 | 5.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 357 | 177 | Banbury | Sean Woodcock | 73,193 | 65.8 | 31.6 | 38.3 | 9.1 | 13.1 | 5.4 | 0.0 | 2.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 360 | 174 | Gravesham | Lauren Sullivan | 73,088 | 59.2 | 32.2 | 38.4 | 3.6 | 20.6 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 369 | 165 | Buckingham and Bletchley | Callum Anderson | 74,832 | 63.7 | 31.9 | 36.9 | 9.1 | 15.7 | 5.4 | 0.0 | 1.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 371 | 163 | Chatham and Aylesford | Tristan Osborne | 75,109 | 54.4 | 28.6 | 33.5 | 5.4 | 24.5 | 6.1 | 0.8 | 1.1 | LAB | LAB |
| 380 | 154 | Ashford | Sojan Joseph | 76,212 | 61.6 | 28.7 | 32.5 | 5.3 | 21.6 | 9.3 | 0.0 | 2.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 383 | 151 | Reading West and Mid Berkshire | Olivia Bailey | 68,786 | 67.7 | 32.1 | 34.9 | 11.0 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 1.7 | LAB | LAB |
| 386 | 148 | Dartford | Jim Dickson | 75,426 | 59.0 | 31.9 | 34.6 | 4.9 | 21.4 | 7.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 391 | 143 | Portsmouth North | Amanda Martin | 70,446 | 59.0 | 33.0 | 34.8 | 7.3 | 20.4 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LAB | LAB |
| 394 | 140 | Earley and Woodley | Yuan Yang | 73,548 | 62.4 | 37.8 | 39.6 | 13.4 | 0.0 | 7.4 | 0.0 | 1.6 | LAB | LAB |
| 395 | 139 | Bracknell | Peter Swallow | 71,656 | 61.2 | 32.0 | 33.7 | 10.9 | 17.0 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 1.5 | LAB | LAB |
| 402 | 132 | Aylesbury | Laura Elizabeth Kyrke-Smith | 79,169 | 63.1 | 28.9 | 30.2 | 20.9 | 13.5 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | LAB | LAB |
| 404 | 130 | Sittingbourne and Sheppey | Kevin McKenna | 79,067 | 51.9 | 28.3 | 29.1 | 3.4 | 25.7 | 4.1 | 0.0 | 9.4 | LAB | LAB |
| 415 | 119 | Havant | Alan Mak | 72,346 | 58.3 | 30.8 | 30.6 | 7.8 | 23.6 | 6.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 430 | 104 | Faversham and Mid Kent | Helen Whately | 74,301 | 62.7 | 31.8 | 28.6 | 8.9 | 21.2 | 9.1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | CON | CON |
| 433 | 101 | Spelthorne | Lincoln Jopp | 73,782 | 62.6 | 30.4 | 27.0 | 18.9 | 18.0 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 0.6 | CON | CON |
| 435 | 99 | Maidstone and Malling | Helen Grant | 76,449 | 60.7 | 30.5 | 26.9 | 13.8 | 20.1 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | CON | CON |
| 436 | 98 | Bognor Regis and Littlehampton | Ali Griffiths | 77,565 | 61.7 | 32.8 | 29.1 | 10.7 | 21.5 | 4.6 | 0.0 | 1.4 | CON | CON |
| 445 | 89 | Herne Bay and Sandwich | Roger Gale | 77,841 | 62.7 | 35.3 | 30.2 | 5.6 | 21.7 | 7.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 446 | 87 | Oxford West and Abingdon | Layla Moran | 71,318 | 64.5 | 18.5 | 13.0 | 50.9 | 9.1 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 1.4 | LIB | LIB |
| 447 | 87 | Bexhill and Battle | Kieran Mullan | 72,209 | 66.1 | 34.0 | 28.3 | 7.4 | 16.7 | 6.2 | 0.0 | 7.4 | CON | CON |
| 450 | 84 | Reigate | Rebecca Paul | 77,101 | 68.9 | 35.4 | 29.4 | 12.7 | 13.6 | 8.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 453 | 81 | Hampshire North West | Kit Malthouse | 78,629 | 64.6 | 35.0 | 28.5 | 15.0 | 15.2 | 5.4 | 0.0 | 0.9 | CON | CON |
| 469 | 64 | Sussex Mid | Alison Bennett | 75,969 | 70.2 | 27.2 | 17.6 | 39.7 | 11.1 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 0.6 | LIB | LIB |
| 485 | 49 | New Forest West | Desmond Swayne | 68,644 | 67.5 | 35.4 | 23.3 | 17.7 | 16.4 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 1.1 | CON | CON |
| 486 | 48 | Fareham and Waterlooville | Suella Braverman | 77,691 | 64.5 | 35.0 | 22.9 | 19.0 | 18.1 | 4.1 | 0.0 | 0.8 | CON | CON |
| 487 | 47 | Isle of Wight East | Joe Robertson | 55,855 | 61.0 | 30.6 | 18.4 | 10.4 | 20.9 | 18.5 | 0.0 | 1.2 | CON | CON |
| 489 | 44 | Bicester and Woodstock | Calum Alexander Miller | 74,350 | 67.5 | 28.8 | 16.4 | 38.7 | 10.8 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 0.6 | LIB | LIB |
| 491 | 43 | Gosport | Caroline Dinenage | 73,261 | 60.4 | 40.3 | 26.6 | 9.2 | 18.0 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 1.5 | CON | CON |
| 492 | 41 | Didcot and Wantage | Olly Glover | 80,689 | 67.8 | 28.4 | 14.7 | 39.8 | 11.7 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 0.4 | LIB | LIB |
| 496 | 38 | Windsor | Jack Rankin | 73,334 | 61.7 | 36.5 | 22.1 | 21.2 | 10.3 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 3.5 | CON | CON |
| 499 | 35 | Surrey East | Claire Coutinho | 73,307 | 67.1 | 35.6 | 20.4 | 18.0 | 17.1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 2.9 | CON | CON |
| 500 | 33 | Epsom and Ewell | Helen Maguire | 77,530 | 70.3 | 31.2 | 15.3 | 38.0 | 10.6 | 3.2 | 0.0 | 1.8 | LIB | LIB |
| 500 | 33 | Eastleigh | Liz Jarvis | 69,965 | 66.3 | 31.1 | 15.1 | 34.4 | 13.3 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 501 | 32 | Tunbridge Wells | Mike Martin | 78,738 | 68.9 | 27.6 | 11.4 | 43.6 | 12.0 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 1.1 | LIB | LIB |
| 502 | 32 | Weald of Kent | Katie Jane Lotte Lam | 75,988 | 66.7 | 39.8 | 23.2 | 7.8 | 20.1 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | CON | CON |
| 503 | 30 | Woking | Will Forster | 72,977 | 66.0 | 26.5 | 9.2 | 49.9 | 10.2 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 0.3 | LIB | LIB |
| 504 | 30 | Sussex Weald | Nus Ghani | 72,897 | 67.5 | 34.1 | 16.7 | 20.2 | 18.2 | 7.6 | 0.0 | 3.1 | CON | CON |
| 505 | 29 | Runnymede and Weybridge | Ben Spencer | 73,610 | 65.6 | 38.2 | 20.6 | 22.4 | 13.3 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | CON | CON |
| 508 | 26 | East Grinstead and Uckfield | Mims Davies | 75,385 | 66.8 | 38.4 | 20.7 | 21.7 | 0.1 | 10.5 | 0.0 | 8.6 | CON | CON |
| 511 | 23 | New Forest East | Julian Lewis | 70,618 | 64.0 | 38.5 | 19.7 | 16.0 | 16.9 | 6.9 | 0.0 | 2.0 | CON | CON |
| 512 | 21 | Eastbourne | Josh Babarinde | 72,592 | 62.8 | 25.3 | 5.9 | 52.1 | 13.3 | 3.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | LIB | LIB |
| 513 | 20 | Chichester | Jessica Brown-Fuller | 78,374 | 66.3 | 25.7 | 6.1 | 49.2 | 15.1 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 0.4 | LIB | LIB |
| 513 | 20 | Lewes | James MacCleary | 76,166 | 69.8 | 26.8 | 6.7 | 50.6 | 11.9 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 0.4 | LIB | LIB |
| 514 | 20 | Hamble Valley | Paul Holmes | 80,537 | 67.1 | 36.4 | 16.2 | 27.5 | 15.2 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | CON | CON |
| 515 | 19 | Buckinghamshire Mid | Greg Smith | 75,415 | 71.5 | 37.4 | 17.0 | 26.5 | 12.8 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 0.9 | CON | CON |
| 519 | 14 | Guildford | Zöe Franklin | 70,734 | 68.3 | 30.0 | 8.1 | 47.5 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 0.5 | LIB | LIB |
| 520 | 14 | Farnham and Bordon | Gregory Stafford | 75,918 | 69.8 | 35.8 | 13.8 | 33.2 | 11.7 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 0.8 | CON | CON |
| 522 | 12 | Tonbridge | Tom Tugendhat | 72,799 | 69.1 | 40.8 | 18.6 | 8.5 | 15.0 | 15.1 | 0.0 | 2.1 | CON | CON |
| 523 | 11 | Arundel and South Downs | Andrew Griffith | 77,969 | 70.2 | 40.2 | 17.9 | 18.0 | 13.5 | 10.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | CON | CON |
| 524 | 9 | Winchester | Danny Chambers | 78,289 | 72.9 | 28.2 | 5.3 | 52.5 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 0.8 | LIB | LIB |
| 524 | 9 | Dorking and Horley | Chris Coghlan | 71,850 | 69.5 | 31.1 | 8.1 | 41.9 | 13.8 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 525 | 9 | Sevenoaks | Laura Trott | 73,708 | 67.7 | 36.7 | 13.6 | 25.9 | 18.7 | 4.1 | 0.0 | 1.0 | CON | CON |
| 525 | 8 | Witney | Charlie Maynard | 75,448 | 67.0 | 32.6 | 9.4 | 41.2 | 12.5 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 526 | 8 | Beaconsfield | Joy Morrissey | 72,751 | 65.6 | 38.8 | 15.1 | 27.4 | 12.7 | 4.1 | 0.0 | 1.9 | CON | CON |
| 526 | 7 | Horsham | John Milne | 79,150 | 70.1 | 34.5 | 10.8 | 39.0 | 11.0 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 0.9 | LIB | LIB |
| 527 | 6 | Esher and Walton | Monica Harding | 74,042 | 72.8 | 30.3 | 5.3 | 52.6 | 8.9 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 0.4 | LIB | LIB |
| 528 | 5 | Wokingham | Clive Jones | 75,082 | 71.9 | 32.2 | 6.7 | 47.7 | 9.8 | 3.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | LIB | LIB |
| 528 | 5 | Maidenhead | Joshua Peter Reynolds | 75,687 | 66.5 | 37.7 | 11.4 | 43.6 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 3.3 | LIB | LIB |
| 528 | 5 | Surrey Heath | Al Pinkerton | 71,934 | 66.4 | 33.0 | 6.6 | 44.8 | 13.1 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | LIB | LIB |
| 528 | 5 | Henley and Thame | Freddie Van Mierlo | 73,749 | 72.1 | 33.2 | 6.7 | 45.0 | 9.8 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 1.5 | LIB | LIB |
| 530 | 4 | Hampshire East | Damian Hinds | 71,965 | 69.6 | 37.0 | 9.9 | 34.4 | 12.9 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 1.0 | CON | CON |
| 530 | 3 | Newbury | Lee Raymond James Dillon | 71,986 | 68.0 | 35.3 | 7.5 | 40.2 | 11.0 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 0.6 | LIB | LIB |
| 531 | 2 | Hampshire North East | Alex Brewer | 76,975 | 72.2 | 37.0 | 9.1 | 38.1 | 12.0 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 1.2 | LIB | LIB |
| 531 | 2 | Chesham and Amersham | Sarah Green | 74,889 | 72.7 | 34.8 | 6.4 | 44.9 | 9.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | LIB | LIB |
| 532 | 2 | Romsey and Southampton North | Caroline Nokes | 71,871 | 69.6 | 39.8 | 9.3 | 35.4 | 11.4 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 0.4 | CON | CON |
| 533 | 1 | Godalming and Ash | Jeremy Hunt | 74,168 | 73.7 | 42.6 | 5.0 | 41.0 | 8.8 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | CON | CON |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.