South East: Majority Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 54.6%73 40.6%32+174
LAB 28.6%8 17.6%03-35
LIB 10.5%2 22.3%20+24
Brexit 0.0%0 12.5%00+00
Green 3.1%1 4.5%00+01
UKIP 2.3%0 0.8%00+00
Other 1.0%0 1.7%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Oxford East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Buckingham, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Dover (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Brighton Kemptown (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Brexit
%
Green
%
UKIP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
90457Oxford East Anneliese Dodds78,36068.820.437.624.86.68.10.90.01.6LABLAB
100447Slough Tan Dhesi83,27265.228.444.211.610.33.10.80.01.6LABLAB
139408Hove Peter Kyle74,23677.627.037.418.18.46.30.80.02.0LABLAB
159388Southampton Test Alan Whitehead70,19466.828.536.116.911.04.30.90.02.3LABLAB
193354Brighton Kemptown Lloyd Russell-Moyle67,89372.530.933.916.810.64.90.80.02.0LABLAB
234313Reading East Matt Rodda75,52273.132.630.121.38.25.30.80.01.7LABCON
238308Brighton Pavilion Caroline Lucas75,48676.416.513.712.93.950.61.00.01.4GreenGreen
259288Portsmouth South Stephen Morgan69,78563.928.923.628.811.44.80.90.01.5LABCON
275272Southampton Itchen Royston Smith71,71665.235.528.015.114.54.21.00.01.7CONCON
281266Hastings and Rye Amber Rudd78,29869.936.427.715.914.02.91.00.02.1CONCON
282265Milton Keynes South Iain Stewart92,49469.736.627.816.013.04.00.90.01.6CONCON
287260Milton Keynes North Mark Lancaster89,27271.536.527.317.412.14.10.90.01.7CONCON
289258Canterbury Rosie Duffield78,13772.734.225.023.410.05.10.80.01.6LABCON
293254Crawley Henry Smith73,42468.538.728.814.313.12.80.80.01.6CONCON
296251Reading West Alok Sharma74,51869.537.326.918.211.53.80.80.01.6CONCON
311236Wycombe Steve Baker77,08969.438.124.920.110.93.90.80.01.3CONCON
320227Worthing East and Shoreham Tim Loughton75,54370.338.023.118.213.54.31.00.02.0CONCON
337210Dover Charlie Elphicke74,56469.740.623.314.216.13.11.00.01.7CONCON
338209Thanet South Craig Mackinlay72,34268.840.022.614.417.03.01.10.02.0CONCON
342205Basingstoke Maria Miller81,87368.339.421.619.113.93.30.90.01.8CONCON
359188Gillingham and Rainham Rehman Chishti72,09367.841.522.214.515.93.11.00.01.8CONCON
361186Rochester and Strood Kelly Tolhurst82,70265.041.221.713.417.53.31.10.01.8CONCON
366181Banbury Victoria Prentis83,81873.440.921.018.312.63.81.00.02.3CONCON
370177Gravesham Adam Holloway72,94867.242.622.212.916.33.20.90.01.9CONCON
372175Portsmouth North Penny Mordaunt71,37466.140.820.315.916.93.31.00.01.7CONCON
374173Chatham and Aylesford Tracey Crouch70,41963.742.021.113.517.43.11.10.01.9CONCON
378168Oxford West and Abingdon Layla Moran79,28975.729.88.749.88.12.10.50.01.1LIBLIB
382165Aldershot Leo Docherty76,20564.240.519.019.514.83.70.90.01.6CONCON
388159Thanet North Roger Gale72,65766.542.520.214.716.83.01.00.01.8CONCON
393154Aylesbury David Lidington82,54671.241.318.621.212.73.30.90.01.9CONCON
396151Worthing West Peter Bottomley77,77770.141.919.018.513.84.20.90.01.7CONCON
401146Dartford Gareth Johnson78,50669.143.720.213.616.73.01.00.01.8CONCON
411136Eastleigh Mims Davies81,21370.536.612.233.613.02.50.70.01.4CONCON
414133Wantage Ed Vaizey87,73572.540.115.526.811.43.80.80.01.5CONCON
415132Woking Jonathan Lord76,17072.539.915.329.110.33.10.80.01.5CONCON
419128Folkestone and Hythe Damian Collins84,09070.041.616.518.315.94.51.10.02.1CONCON
420127Sittingbourne and Sheppey Gordon Henderson81,71562.944.619.513.916.22.70.90.02.1CONCON
423123Eastbourne Stephen Lloyd78,75472.932.37.045.711.51.90.40.01.3LIBLIB
424123Bracknell Phillip Lee79,19970.643.218.019.813.52.70.90.02.0CONCON
430117Tunbridge Wells Greg Clark75,13872.141.716.123.811.44.00.90.02.1CONCON
432115Isle of Wight Bob Seely110,69767.339.213.615.114.514.91.10.01.7CONCON
434113Spelthorne Kwasi Kwarteng72,64169.043.717.917.115.43.30.90.01.6CONCON
436111Ashford Damian Green87,39668.543.717.816.915.43.61.00.01.6CONCON
440107Guildford Anne Milton75,45473.638.212.135.19.03.30.60.01.6CONCON
442105Wokingham John Redwood79,87974.741.014.829.29.33.50.70.01.5CONCON
442104Lewes Maria Caulfield70,94776.433.97.645.59.61.80.40.01.2CONLIB
446101Sussex Mid Nicholas Soames83,74773.641.414.626.211.63.60.80.01.8CONCON
45493Maidstone and The Weald Helen Grant75,33468.640.813.526.613.82.90.80.01.6CONCON
45988Reigate Crispin Blunt74,62872.142.414.923.711.74.90.80.01.5CONCON
46384Havant Alan Mak72,46463.943.515.816.916.83.51.10.02.5CONCON
46780Witney Robert Courts82,72773.640.913.029.111.23.50.70.01.5CONCON
46977Winchester Steve Brine72,49778.835.57.744.18.52.50.40.01.3CONLIB
47077Romsey and Southampton North Caroline Nokes67,18674.740.112.132.610.03.10.60.01.6CONCON
47671Gosport Caroline Dinenage73,88667.045.016.416.116.43.31.00.01.9CONCON
47770Faversham and Kent Mid Helen Whately76,00865.544.615.918.115.23.70.90.01.6CONCON
48067Runnymede and Weybridge Philip Hammond74,88768.944.715.820.812.43.80.90.01.6CONCON
48166Epsom and Ewell Chris Grayling80,02974.143.814.925.010.73.50.70.01.5CONCON
48958Esher and Walton Dominic Raab80,93873.942.412.829.79.62.90.70.01.8CONCON
49156Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Nick Gibb75,82767.745.415.616.617.02.90.90.01.6CONCON
49453Horsham Jeremy Quin82,77374.943.113.225.212.23.60.80.01.9CONCON
49552Chichester Gillian Keegan84,99670.543.813.823.412.73.90.80.01.6CONCON
49948Henley John Howell74,98776.142.912.427.610.54.20.70.01.7CONCON
50146Fareham Suella Fernandes79,49571.745.714.919.913.83.40.80.01.5CONCON
50245Hampshire North West Kit Malthouse81,43072.245.214.321.613.33.20.80.01.6CONCON
51037Wealden Nus Ghani81,42574.345.013.322.013.24.10.80.01.5CONCON
51235Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan71,46577.344.612.726.210.83.70.70.01.4CONCON
51334Windsor Adam Afriyie73,59573.346.214.323.410.23.60.70.01.5CONCON
51631Arundel and South Downs Nick Herbert80,76674.645.713.621.912.34.20.80.01.5CONCON
51730Bexhill and Battle Huw Merriman78,51275.746.514.319.214.53.10.80.01.6CONCON
51829New Forest East Julian Lewis72,60270.844.712.423.613.83.30.60.01.5CONCON
51928Newbury Richard Benyon82,92373.442.410.031.410.93.10.50.01.6CONCON
52126Tonbridge and Malling Tom Tugendhat77,23473.746.313.819.813.44.20.80.01.5CONCON
52324Surrey Heath Michael Gove80,53771.846.013.322.911.64.00.70.01.5CONCON
52423Surrey East Sam Gyimah82,00472.245.812.922.413.82.90.80.01.5CONCON
52621Sevenoaks Michael Fallon71,06172.146.513.220.613.83.50.80.01.5CONCON
52819Hampshire East Damian Hinds74,14874.744.811.226.711.23.60.60.01.9CONCON
52918Maidenhead Theresa May76,27676.446.612.824.810.42.80.70.01.9CONCON
53116Beaconsfield Dominic Grieve77,53472.347.813.621.111.83.40.70.01.6CONCON
53215Mole Valley Paul Beresford74,54576.144.09.630.311.03.20.60.01.3CONCON
53413Meon Valley George Hollingbery74,24673.046.511.823.413.23.00.70.01.4CONCON
53710Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena75,47676.446.411.325.611.13.20.60.01.7CONCON
5416New Forest West Desmond Swayne68,78772.148.212.320.413.13.50.70.01.9CONCON
5425Surrey South West Jeremy Hunt78,04277.448.110.826.910.12.10.60.01.4CONCON
5461Buckingham John Bercow79,61666.250.05.813.814.114.10.90.01.3CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.