South East: Majority Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 54.6%73 50.2%10+174
LAB 28.6%8 22.4%01-17
LIB 10.5%2 12.8%00+02
UKIP 2.3%0 5.6%00+00
Green 3.1%1 5.3%00+01
Minor 1.0%0 3.8%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Oxford East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Buckingham, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Basingstoke (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Portsmouth South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
58513Oxford East Anneliese Dodds78,36068.817.558.611.43.55.50.00.03.4LABLAB
101470Hove Peter Kyle74,23677.627.257.64.63.53.90.00.03.3LABLAB
109462Slough Tan Dhesi83,27265.227.256.44.75.72.20.00.03.7LABLAB
149422Southampton Test Alan Whitehead70,19466.829.752.16.43.52.20.01.74.4LABLAB
170401Brighton Kemptown Lloyd Russell-Moyle67,89372.533.951.85.33.52.20.00.03.4LABLAB
226344Brighton Pavilion Caroline Lucas75,48676.415.020.22.34.554.50.00.03.5GreenGreen
227344Reading East Matt Rodda75,52273.137.842.58.53.54.20.00.03.5LABLAB
239332Portsmouth South Stephen Morgan69,78563.933.134.519.66.03.80.00.02.9LABLAB
256315Canterbury Rosie Duffield78,13772.740.338.410.43.54.50.00.02.9LABCON
257314Southampton Itchen Royston Smith71,71665.242.139.95.45.93.80.00.02.9CONCON
262309Hastings and Rye Amber Rudd78,29869.942.539.75.86.22.20.00.03.7CONCON
278293Milton Keynes South Iain Stewart92,49469.743.138.35.36.34.10.00.02.9CONCON
281290Milton Keynes North Mark Lancaster89,27271.543.037.96.25.74.00.00.03.2CONCON
291280Crawley Henry Smith73,42468.546.239.16.13.52.20.00.02.9CONCON
296275Reading West Alok Sharma74,51869.544.536.88.23.54.10.00.02.9CONCON
310261Worthing East and Shoreham Tim Loughton75,54370.344.532.77.16.24.60.01.13.8CONCON
321250Wycombe Steve Baker77,08969.445.631.210.15.74.40.00.02.9CONCON
323248Dover Charlie Elphicke74,56469.748.033.44.96.84.00.00.02.9CONCON
324247Thanet South Craig Mackinlay72,34268.846.431.45.49.53.90.00.03.5CONCON
341230Basingstoke Maria Miller81,87368.348.329.28.46.54.20.00.03.3CONCON
350221Rochester and Strood Kelly Tolhurst82,70265.050.029.54.58.93.70.00.03.5CONCON
354217Gravesham Adam Holloway72,94867.251.229.94.87.03.70.00.03.3CONCON
356215Gillingham and Rainham Rehman Chishti72,09367.851.029.65.17.83.30.00.03.2CONCON
363208Banbury Victoria Prentis83,81873.449.827.57.96.14.20.00.04.4CONCON
371200Portsmouth North Penny Mordaunt71,37466.150.427.17.97.63.90.00.03.2CONCON
376195Worthing West Peter Bottomley77,77770.151.026.67.86.55.20.00.02.9CONCON
377194Thanet North Roger Gale72,65766.551.827.45.68.03.90.00.03.2CONCON
384187Chatham and Aylesford Tracey Crouch70,41963.752.627.14.88.43.50.00.03.5CONCON
386185Aldershot Leo Docherty76,20564.250.625.09.87.24.50.00.02.9CONCON
393178Dartford Gareth Johnson78,50669.153.126.75.08.23.70.00.03.3CONCON
399172Aylesbury David Lidington82,54671.250.623.412.05.74.30.00.04.0CONCON
405166Folkestone and Hythe Damian Collins84,09070.050.321.99.57.86.50.00.04.0CONCON
408163Spelthorne Kwasi Kwarteng72,64169.052.823.97.88.14.40.00.02.9CONCON
415156Wantage Ed Vaizey87,73572.549.820.316.95.54.70.00.02.9CONCON
415155Oxford West and Abingdon Layla Moran79,28975.738.08.545.64.01.70.00.02.3LIBLIB
423148Isle of Wight Bob Seely110,69767.346.916.46.06.119.60.02.12.9CONCON
427144Bracknell Phillip Lee79,19970.654.423.69.86.22.20.00.03.7CONCON
431140Ashford Damian Green87,39668.554.623.27.57.24.60.00.02.9CONCON
438133Sittingbourne and Sheppey Gordon Henderson81,71562.955.724.05.03.53.30.04.24.3CONCON
446125Woking Jonathan Lord76,17072.549.717.319.95.64.20.00.03.3CONCON
447124Tunbridge Wells Greg Clark75,13872.152.520.012.26.24.90.00.04.2CONCON
448123Eastleigh Mims Davies81,21370.546.013.428.06.13.50.00.02.9CONCON
453118Wokingham John Redwood79,87974.752.218.618.33.54.50.00.02.9CONCON
456115Sussex Mid Nicholas Soames83,74773.652.518.415.15.54.80.00.03.7CONCON
456114Eastbourne Stephen Lloyd78,75472.939.75.548.42.22.30.00.01.9LIBLIB
465106Reigate Crispin Blunt74,62872.153.018.113.36.36.30.00.02.9CONCON
47596Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Nick Gibb75,82767.754.518.38.97.14.20.04.12.9CONCON
47893Maidstone and The Weald Helen Grant75,33468.651.915.518.76.64.00.00.03.3CONCON
48388Havant Alan Mak72,46463.955.318.78.47.84.70.00.05.1CONCON
48586Epsom and Ewell Chris Grayling80,02974.155.218.514.83.55.10.00.02.9CONCON
48982Gosport Caroline Dinenage73,88667.057.520.67.07.14.30.00.03.5CONCON
49279Witney Robert Courts82,72773.651.114.122.85.14.00.00.02.9CONCON
49477Runnymede and Weybridge Philip Hammond74,88768.956.519.49.66.74.80.00.02.9CONCON
49774Faversham and Kent Mid Helen Whately76,00865.556.719.58.96.95.10.00.02.9CONCON
50170Guildford Anne Milton75,45473.650.212.726.13.44.20.00.03.3CONCON
50269Lewes Maria Caulfield70,94776.445.17.541.02.61.60.00.02.2CONCON
51259Bexhill and Battle Huw Merriman78,51275.757.618.19.96.94.70.00.02.9CONCON
51556Romsey and Southampton North Caroline Nokes67,18674.752.712.923.53.44.10.00.03.4CONCON
51655Chichester Gillian Keegan84,99670.555.715.813.66.25.60.00.03.1CONCON
51754Fareham Suella Fernandes79,49571.758.618.69.26.24.50.00.02.9CONCON
51853Horsham Jeremy Quin82,77374.955.115.114.76.05.20.00.04.0CONCON
52348Winchester Steve Brine72,49778.847.67.136.23.73.10.00.02.4CONCON
52546Hampshire North West Kit Malthouse81,43072.257.616.912.06.04.50.00.02.9CONCON
52744Esher and Walton Dominic Raab80,93873.954.213.219.65.24.00.00.03.8CONCON
52942Henley John Howell74,98776.154.713.517.25.55.50.00.03.6CONCON
53041Wealden Nus Ghani81,42574.356.815.612.76.55.50.00.02.9CONCON
53338Arundel and South Downs Nick Herbert80,76674.657.916.110.36.36.50.00.02.9CONCON
53635Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan71,46577.356.214.015.36.25.20.00.02.9CONCON
53833Surrey East Sam Gyimah82,00472.255.212.912.87.24.00.05.02.9CONCON
54130Surrey South West Jeremy Hunt78,04277.451.38.411.74.51.70.020.02.3CONCON
54229Tonbridge and Malling Tom Tugendhat77,23473.759.215.89.06.76.30.00.02.9CONCON
54328Windsor Adam Afriyie73,59573.360.016.312.43.54.90.00.02.9CONCON
55219New Forest East Julian Lewis72,60270.858.213.317.53.54.70.00.02.9CONCON
55318Sevenoaks Michael Fallon71,06172.159.314.410.77.25.50.00.02.9CONCON
55417Surrey Heath Michael Gove80,53771.859.814.513.23.56.10.00.02.9CONCON
55516Beaconsfield Dominic Grieve77,53472.360.814.910.36.44.70.00.02.9CONCON
55912Maidenhead Theresa May76,27676.460.413.013.54.93.70.00.54.0CONCON
56011Newbury Richard Benyon82,92373.457.09.523.32.94.40.00.02.9CONCON
56110Hampshire East Damian Hinds74,14874.759.211.417.33.25.20.00.03.7CONCON
5629Mole Valley Paul Beresford74,54576.157.59.321.25.24.40.00.02.4CONCON
5656Meon Valley George Hollingbery74,24673.061.312.313.16.04.50.00.02.8CONCON
5665New Forest West Desmond Swayne68,78772.162.413.211.93.45.10.00.03.9CONCON
5674Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena75,47676.461.111.614.35.04.60.00.03.3CONCON
5701Buckingham John Bercow79,61666.260.70.00.99.317.20.010.71.2CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.