South East: Majority Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party	2017 Votes	2017 Seats	Pred Votes	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	54.6%	73	51.5%	+0	73
LAB	28.6%	8	25.1%	+0	8
LIB	10.5%	2	17.2%	+0	2
Brexit	0.0%	0	0.9%	+0	0
Green	3.1%	1	3.3%	+0	1
UKIP	2.3%	0	0.0%	+0	0
Other	1.0%	0	2.0%	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Oxford East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Beaconsfield, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Basingstoke (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Portsmouth South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2017	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Brexit %	Green %	NAT %	UKIP %	MIN %	OTH %	2017 Win	Pred Win
49	520	Oxford East	Anneliese Dodds	78,360	68.8	19.9	49.8	18.1	3.8	6.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.1	LAB	LAB
87	482	Slough	Tan Dhesi	83,272	65.2	29.8	52.7	8.4	6.5	2.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
99	470	Hove	Peter Kyle	74,236	77.6	27.7	47.8	13.4	4.5	4.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.3	LAB	LAB
130	438	Brighton Pavilion	Caroline Lucas	75,486	76.4	17.2	32.9	0.0	2.5	46.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.6	Green	Green
135	434	Southampton Test	Alan Whitehead	70,194	66.8	30.2	45.7	11.9	6.2	3.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.7	LAB	LAB
159	410	Brighton Kemptown	Lloyd Russell-Moyle	67,893	72.5	33.1	44.8	12.9	5.9	3.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LAB	LAB
190	379	Canterbury	Rosie Duffield	78,137	72.7	40.5	48.4	9.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.5	LAB	LAB
195	374	Reading East	Matt Rodda	75,522	73.1	33.1	40.6	15.2	4.6	4.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.3	LAB	LAB
213	356	Portsmouth South	Stephen Morgan	69,785	63.9	31.3	36.1	24.1	6.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.3	LAB	LAB
265	304	Wycombe	Steve Baker	77,089	69.4	46.4	35.3	13.8	0.0	2.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.2	CON	CON
268	300	Oxford West and Abingdon	Layla Moran	79,289	75.7	31.8	18.7	44.7	4.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	LIB	LIB
269	300	Milton Keynes North	Mark Lancaster	89,272	71.5	48.7	35.4	12.9	0.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
272	297	Reading West	Alok Sharma	74,518	69.5	49.0	34.6	13.6	0.0	2.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
274	295	Hastings and Rye	Amber Rudd	78,298	69.9	50.6	35.7	12.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
276	293	Milton Keynes South	Iain Stewart	92,494	69.7	49.7	34.8	11.3	0.0	2.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.4	CON	CON
279	290	Southampton Itchen	Royston Smith	71,716	65.2	50.5	35.3	11.4	0.0	2.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
288	281	Crawley	Henry Smith	73,424	68.5	52.5	35.1	10.6	0.0	1.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
299	270	Guildford	Anne Milton	75,454	73.6	36.6	17.1	22.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	22.0	1.5	CON	CON
303	265	Eastbourne	Stephen Lloyd	78,754	72.9	36.4	16.3	38.7	6.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.3	LIB	LIB
308	261	Worthing East and Shoreham	Tim Loughton	75,543	70.3	51.4	30.5	13.3	0.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
336	233	Basingstoke	Maria Miller	81,873	68.3	53.4	28.7	13.7	0.0	2.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
338	231	Banbury	Victoria Prentis	83,818	73.4	54.0	29.0	14.1	0.0	2.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
345	224	Wantage	Ed Vaizey	87,735	72.5	51.0	24.8	22.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
347	222	Isle of Wight	Bob Seely	110,697	67.3	57.4	30.8	0.0	0.0	11.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.7	CON	CON
349	220	Woking	Jonathan Lord	76,170	72.5	50.1	23.5	23.6	0.0	2.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
352	217	Tunbridge Wells	Greg Clark	75,138	72.1	52.6	25.5	20.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
357	212	Dover	Charlie Elphicke	74,564	69.7	56.8	29.5	10.2	0.0	2.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.3	CON	CON
361	208	Aylesbury	David Lidington	82,546	71.2	54.4	26.7	16.0	0.0	2.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
365	204	Thanet South	Craig Mackinlay	72,342	68.8	57.6	29.3	10.9	0.0	2.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
378	191	Wokingham	John Redwood	79,879	74.7	43.5	14.3	36.7	0.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.5	CON	CON
380	189	Esher and Walton	Dominic Raab	80,938	73.9	42.7	13.4	41.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
381	188	Gillingham and Rainham	Rehman Chishti	72,093	67.8	57.7	28.4	10.3	0.0	2.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.4	CON	CON
383	186	Worthing West	Peter Bottomley	77,777	70.1	55.7	26.3	13.5	0.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
385	184	Romsey and Southampton North	Caroline Nokes	67,186	74.7	50.4	20.9	28.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
387	182	Aldershot	Leo Docherty	76,205	64.2	56.0	26.2	14.9	0.0	2.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
395	174	Sussex Mid	Nicholas Soames	83,747	73.6	52.4	22.2	20.8	0.0	2.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
396	173	Lewes	Maria Caulfield	70,947	76.4	44.1	13.9	38.7	0.0	1.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
399	170	Witney	Robert Courts	82,727	73.6	52.5	22.1	25.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
400	169	Buckingham	John Bercow	79,616	66.2	50.2	19.7	17.6	8.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.9	CON	CON
403	166	Reigate	Crispin Blunt	74,628	72.1	53.9	23.1	19.0	0.0	4.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
406	163	Eastleigh	Mims Davies	81,213	70.5	50.4	19.3	28.1	0.0	2.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
408	161	Epsom and Ewell	Chris Grayling	80,029	74.1	53.7	22.6	19.1	0.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
411	158	Winchester	Steve Brine	72,497	78.8	43.8	12.5	41.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.2	CON	CON
412	157	Portsmouth North	Penny Mordaunt	71,374	66.1	58.2	26.8	11.2	0.0	2.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.3	CON	CON
414	155	Bracknell	Phillip Lee	79,199	70.6	56.8	25.3	14.1	0.0	2.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
417	152	Rochester and Strood	Kelly Tolhurst	82,702	65.0	59.2	27.5	9.7	0.0	2.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.3	CON	CON
418	151	Gravesham	Adam Holloway	72,948	67.2	59.8	28.0	10.0	0.0	2.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
431	138	Henley	John Howell	74,987	76.1	53.2	20.3	23.1	0.0	3.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
439	130	Thanet North	Roger Gale	72,657	66.5	60.0	26.7	11.2	0.0	2.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
440	129	Runnymede and Weybridge	Philip Hammond	74,887	68.9	56.7	23.3	15.2	0.0	3.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
446	123	Chatham and Aylesford	Tracey Crouch	70,419	63.7	60.2	26.7	9.7	0.0	2.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.2	CON	CON
448	121	Surrey South West	Jeremy Hunt	78,042	77.4	53.6	20.0	26.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
450	119	Folkestone and Hythe	Damian Collins	84,090	70.0	57.8	23.9	13.2	0.0	3.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
461	108	Windsor	Adam Afriyie	73,595	73.3	55.9	21.6	17.8	0.0	3.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
463	106	Chesham and Amersham	Cheryl Gillan	71,465	77.3	55.0	20.6	21.2	0.0	3.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
465	104	Horsham	Jeremy Quin	82,773	74.9	55.1	20.6	19.7	0.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
467	102	Maidstone and The Weald	Helen Grant	75,334	68.6	54.9	20.3	20.7	0.0	2.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
470	99	Ashford	Damian Green	87,396	68.5	59.2	24.5	12.2	0.0	2.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.4	CON	CON
474	95	Dartford	Gareth Johnson	78,506	69.1	61.2	26.3	10.4	0.0	2.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
475	94	Spelthorne	Kwasi Kwarteng	72,641	69.0	59.7	24.7	13.1	0.0	2.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
476	93	Chichester	Gillian Keegan	84,996	70.5	56.2	21.0	18.1	0.0	3.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
484	85	Sittingbourne and Sheppey	Gordon Henderson	81,715	62.9	61.0	24.8	10.2	0.0	2.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
485	84	Arundel and South Downs	Nick Herbert	80,766	74.6	57.3	21.0	16.7	0.0	3.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
487	82	Maidenhead	Theresa May	76,276	76.4	56.9	20.5	19.9	0.0	2.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
494	75	Hampshire North West	Kit Malthouse	81,430	72.2	58.7	22.0	16.6	0.0	2.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
497	72	Fareham	Suella Fernandes	79,495	71.7	59.6	22.7	15.0	0.0	2.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
498	71	Faversham and Kent Mid	Helen Whately	76,008	65.5	59.8	22.8	13.1	0.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.4	CON	CON
499	70	Newbury	Richard Benyon	82,923	73.4	53.6	16.6	25.4	0.0	2.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
500	69	Surrey Heath	Michael Gove	80,537	71.8	57.8	20.7	18.1	0.0	3.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
501	68	Wealden	Nus Ghani	81,425	74.3	58.3	21.2	17.3	0.0	3.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
508	61	Hampshire East	Damian Hinds	74,148	74.7	55.9	18.2	21.2	0.0	3.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
514	55	Tonbridge and Malling	Tom Tugendhat	77,234	73.7	59.8	21.6	15.0	0.0	3.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
517	52	Mole Valley	Paul Beresford	74,545	76.1	54.7	16.3	24.5	0.0	2.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
518	51	Havant	Alan Mak	72,464	63.9	61.0	22.4	12.2	0.0	2.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
525	44	Gosport	Caroline Dinenage	73,886	67.0	62.1	23.2	12.2	0.0	2.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
528	41	Hampshire North East	Ranil Jayawardena	75,476	76.4	57.2	18.2	20.1	0.0	2.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
529	40	Bexhill and Battle	Huw Merriman	78,512	75.7	61.1	22.0	14.4	0.0	2.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
532	37	Surrey East	Sam Gyimah	82,004	72.2	58.8	19.5	16.8	0.0	2.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.2	CON	CON
534	35	New Forest East	Julian Lewis	72,602	70.8	58.8	19.2	17.8	0.0	2.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
536	33	Sevenoaks	Michael Fallon	71,061	72.1	60.1	20.3	15.0	0.0	3.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
540	29	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	Nick Gibb	75,827	67.7	62.2	21.6	11.9	0.0	2.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
544	25	Meon Valley	George Hollingbery	74,246	73.0	60.0	19.0	18.4	0.0	2.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
550	19	New Forest West	Desmond Swayne	68,787	72.1	61.7	19.6	16.0	0.0	2.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	CON	CON
555	14	Beaconsfield	Dominic Grieve	77,534	72.3	62.2	18.0	0.0	0.0	2.3	0.0	0.0	16.3	1.2	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.