South East: Majority Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party	2017 Votes	2017 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	54.6%	73	40.6%	3	2	+1	74
LAB	28.6%	8	17.6%	0	3	-3	5
LIB	10.5%	2	22.3%	2	0	+2	4
Brexit	0.0%	0	12.5%	0	0	+0	0
Green	3.1%	1	4.5%	0	0	+0	1
UKIP	2.3%	0	0.8%	0	0	+0	0
Other	1.0%	0	1.7%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Oxford East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Buckingham, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Dover (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Brighton Kemptown (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2017	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Brexit %	Green %	UKIP %	MIN %	OTH %	2017 Win	Pred Win
90	457	Oxford East	Anneliese Dodds	78,360	68.8	20.4	37.6	24.8	6.6	8.1	0.9	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
100	447	Slough	Tan Dhesi	83,272	65.2	28.4	44.2	11.6	10.3	3.1	0.8	0.0	1.6	LAB	LAB
139	408	Hove	Peter Kyle	74,236	77.6	27.0	37.4	18.1	8.4	6.3	0.8	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
159	388	Southampton Test	Alan Whitehead	70,194	66.8	28.5	36.1	16.9	11.0	4.3	0.9	0.0	2.3	LAB	LAB
193	354	Brighton Kemptown	Lloyd Russell-Moyle	67,893	72.5	30.9	33.9	16.8	10.6	4.9	0.8	0.0	2.0	LAB	LAB
234	313	Reading East	Matt Rodda	75,522	73.1	32.6	30.1	21.3	8.2	5.3	0.8	0.0	1.7	LAB	CON
238	308	Brighton Pavilion	Caroline Lucas	75,486	76.4	16.5	13.7	12.9	3.9	50.6	1.0	0.0	1.4	Green	Green
259	288	Portsmouth South	Stephen Morgan	69,785	63.9	28.9	23.6	28.8	11.4	4.8	0.9	0.0	1.5	LAB	CON
275	272	Southampton Itchen	Royston Smith	71,716	65.2	35.5	28.0	15.1	14.5	4.2	1.0	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
281	266	Hastings and Rye	Amber Rudd	78,298	69.9	36.4	27.7	15.9	14.0	2.9	1.0	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
282	265	Milton Keynes South	Iain Stewart	92,494	69.7	36.6	27.8	16.0	13.0	4.0	0.9	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
287	260	Milton Keynes North	Mark Lancaster	89,272	71.5	36.5	27.3	17.4	12.1	4.1	0.9	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
289	258	Canterbury	Rosie Duffield	78,137	72.7	34.2	25.0	23.4	10.0	5.1	0.8	0.0	1.6	LAB	CON
293	254	Crawley	Henry Smith	73,424	68.5	38.7	28.8	14.3	13.1	2.8	0.8	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
296	251	Reading West	Alok Sharma	74,518	69.5	37.3	26.9	18.2	11.5	3.8	0.8	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
311	236	Wycombe	Steve Baker	77,089	69.4	38.1	24.9	20.1	10.9	3.9	0.8	0.0	1.3	CON	CON
320	227	Worthing East and Shoreham	Tim Loughton	75,543	70.3	38.0	23.1	18.2	13.5	4.3	1.0	0.0	2.0	CON	CON
337	210	Dover	Charlie Elphicke	74,564	69.7	40.6	23.3	14.2	16.1	3.1	1.0	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
338	209	Thanet South	Craig Mackinlay	72,342	68.8	40.0	22.6	14.4	17.0	3.0	1.1	0.0	2.0	CON	CON
342	205	Basingstoke	Maria Miller	81,873	68.3	39.4	21.6	19.1	13.9	3.3	0.9	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
359	188	Gillingham and Rainham	Rehman Chishti	72,093	67.8	41.5	22.2	14.5	15.9	3.1	1.0	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
361	186	Rochester and Strood	Kelly Tolhurst	82,702	65.0	41.2	21.7	13.4	17.5	3.3	1.1	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
366	181	Banbury	Victoria Prentis	83,818	73.4	40.9	21.0	18.3	12.6	3.8	1.0	0.0	2.3	CON	CON
370	177	Gravesham	Adam Holloway	72,948	67.2	42.6	22.2	12.9	16.3	3.2	0.9	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
372	175	Portsmouth North	Penny Mordaunt	71,374	66.1	40.8	20.3	15.9	16.9	3.3	1.0	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
374	173	Chatham and Aylesford	Tracey Crouch	70,419	63.7	42.0	21.1	13.5	17.4	3.1	1.1	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
378	168	Oxford West and Abingdon	Layla Moran	79,289	75.7	29.8	8.7	49.8	8.1	2.1	0.5	0.0	1.1	LIB	LIB
382	165	Aldershot	Leo Docherty	76,205	64.2	40.5	19.0	19.5	14.8	3.7	0.9	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
388	159	Thanet North	Roger Gale	72,657	66.5	42.5	20.2	14.7	16.8	3.0	1.0	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
393	154	Aylesbury	David Lidington	82,546	71.2	41.3	18.6	21.2	12.7	3.3	0.9	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
396	151	Worthing West	Peter Bottomley	77,777	70.1	41.9	19.0	18.5	13.8	4.2	0.9	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
401	146	Dartford	Gareth Johnson	78,506	69.1	43.7	20.2	13.6	16.7	3.0	1.0	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
411	136	Eastleigh	Mims Davies	81,213	70.5	36.6	12.2	33.6	13.0	2.5	0.7	0.0	1.4	CON	CON
414	133	Wantage	Ed Vaizey	87,735	72.5	40.1	15.5	26.8	11.4	3.8	0.8	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
415	132	Woking	Jonathan Lord	76,170	72.5	39.9	15.3	29.1	10.3	3.1	0.8	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
419	128	Folkestone and Hythe	Damian Collins	84,090	70.0	41.6	16.5	18.3	15.9	4.5	1.1	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
420	127	Sittingbourne and Sheppey	Gordon Henderson	81,715	62.9	44.6	19.5	13.9	16.2	2.7	0.9	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
423	123	Eastbourne	Stephen Lloyd	78,754	72.9	32.3	7.0	45.7	11.5	1.9	0.4	0.0	1.3	LIB	LIB
424	123	Bracknell	Phillip Lee	79,199	70.6	43.2	18.0	19.8	13.5	2.7	0.9	0.0	2.0	CON	CON
430	117	Tunbridge Wells	Greg Clark	75,138	72.1	41.7	16.1	23.8	11.4	4.0	0.9	0.0	2.1	CON	CON
432	115	Isle of Wight	Bob Seely	110,697	67.3	39.2	13.6	15.1	14.5	14.9	1.1	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
434	113	Spelthorne	Kwasi Kwarteng	72,641	69.0	43.7	17.9	17.1	15.4	3.3	0.9	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
436	111	Ashford	Damian Green	87,396	68.5	43.7	17.8	16.9	15.4	3.6	1.0	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
440	107	Guildford	Anne Milton	75,454	73.6	38.2	12.1	35.1	9.0	3.3	0.6	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
442	105	Wokingham	John Redwood	79,879	74.7	41.0	14.8	29.2	9.3	3.5	0.7	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
442	104	Lewes	Maria Caulfield	70,947	76.4	33.9	7.6	45.5	9.6	1.8	0.4	0.0	1.2	CON	LIB
446	101	Sussex Mid	Nicholas Soames	83,747	73.6	41.4	14.6	26.2	11.6	3.6	0.8	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
454	93	Maidstone and The Weald	Helen Grant	75,334	68.6	40.8	13.5	26.6	13.8	2.9	0.8	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
459	88	Reigate	Crispin Blunt	74,628	72.1	42.4	14.9	23.7	11.7	4.9	0.8	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
463	84	Havant	Alan Mak	72,464	63.9	43.5	15.8	16.9	16.8	3.5	1.1	0.0	2.5	CON	CON
467	80	Witney	Robert Courts	82,727	73.6	40.9	13.0	29.1	11.2	3.5	0.7	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
469	77	Winchester	Steve Brine	72,497	78.8	35.5	7.7	44.1	8.5	2.5	0.4	0.0	1.3	CON	LIB
470	77	Romsey and Southampton North	Caroline Nokes	67,186	74.7	40.1	12.1	32.6	10.0	3.1	0.6	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
476	71	Gosport	Caroline Dinenage	73,886	67.0	45.0	16.4	16.1	16.4	3.3	1.0	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
477	70	Faversham and Kent Mid	Helen Whately	76,008	65.5	44.6	15.9	18.1	15.2	3.7	0.9	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
480	67	Runnymede and Weybridge	Philip Hammond	74,887	68.9	44.7	15.8	20.8	12.4	3.8	0.9	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
481	66	Epsom and Ewell	Chris Grayling	80,029	74.1	43.8	14.9	25.0	10.7	3.5	0.7	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
489	58	Esher and Walton	Dominic Raab	80,938	73.9	42.4	12.8	29.7	9.6	2.9	0.7	0.0	1.8	CON	CON
491	56	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	Nick Gibb	75,827	67.7	45.4	15.6	16.6	17.0	2.9	0.9	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
494	53	Horsham	Jeremy Quin	82,773	74.9	43.1	13.2	25.2	12.2	3.6	0.8	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
495	52	Chichester	Gillian Keegan	84,996	70.5	43.8	13.8	23.4	12.7	3.9	0.8	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
499	48	Henley	John Howell	74,987	76.1	42.9	12.4	27.6	10.5	4.2	0.7	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
501	46	Fareham	Suella Fernandes	79,495	71.7	45.7	14.9	19.9	13.8	3.4	0.8	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
502	45	Hampshire North West	Kit Malthouse	81,430	72.2	45.2	14.3	21.6	13.3	3.2	0.8	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
510	37	Wealden	Nus Ghani	81,425	74.3	45.0	13.3	22.0	13.2	4.1	0.8	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
512	35	Chesham and Amersham	Cheryl Gillan	71,465	77.3	44.6	12.7	26.2	10.8	3.7	0.7	0.0	1.4	CON	CON
513	34	Windsor	Adam Afriyie	73,595	73.3	46.2	14.3	23.4	10.2	3.6	0.7	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
516	31	Arundel and South Downs	Nick Herbert	80,766	74.6	45.7	13.6	21.9	12.3	4.2	0.8	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
517	30	Bexhill and Battle	Huw Merriman	78,512	75.7	46.5	14.3	19.2	14.5	3.1	0.8	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
518	29	New Forest East	Julian Lewis	72,602	70.8	44.7	12.4	23.6	13.8	3.3	0.6	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
519	28	Newbury	Richard Benyon	82,923	73.4	42.4	10.0	31.4	10.9	3.1	0.5	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
521	26	Tonbridge and Malling	Tom Tugendhat	77,234	73.7	46.3	13.8	19.8	13.4	4.2	0.8	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
523	24	Surrey Heath	Michael Gove	80,537	71.8	46.0	13.3	22.9	11.6	4.0	0.7	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
524	23	Surrey East	Sam Gyimah	82,004	72.2	45.8	12.9	22.4	13.8	2.9	0.8	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
526	21	Sevenoaks	Michael Fallon	71,061	72.1	46.5	13.2	20.6	13.8	3.5	0.8	0.0	1.5	CON	CON
528	19	Hampshire East	Damian Hinds	74,148	74.7	44.8	11.2	26.7	11.2	3.6	0.6	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
529	18	Maidenhead	Theresa May	76,276	76.4	46.6	12.8	24.8	10.4	2.8	0.7	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
531	16	Beaconsfield	Dominic Grieve	77,534	72.3	47.8	13.6	21.1	11.8	3.4	0.7	0.0	1.6	CON	CON
532	15	Mole Valley	Paul Beresford	74,545	76.1	44.0	9.6	30.3	11.0	3.2	0.6	0.0	1.3	CON	CON
534	13	Meon Valley	George Hollingbery	74,246	73.0	46.5	11.8	23.4	13.2	3.0	0.7	0.0	1.4	CON	CON
537	10	Hampshire North East	Ranil Jayawardena	75,476	76.4	46.4	11.3	25.6	11.1	3.2	0.6	0.0	1.7	CON	CON
541	6	New Forest West	Desmond Swayne	68,787	72.1	48.2	12.3	20.4	13.1	3.5	0.7	0.0	1.9	CON	CON
542	5	Surrey South West	Jeremy Hunt	78,042	77.4	48.1	10.8	26.9	10.1	2.1	0.6	0.0	1.4	CON	CON
546	1	Buckingham	John Bercow	79,616	66.2	50.0	5.8	13.8	14.1	14.1	0.9	0.0	1.3	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.