South East: Majority Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 54.0%74 31.6%028-2846
LAB 22.1%8 33.2%240+2432
LIB 18.2%1 16.2%40+45
Reform 0.3%0 10.7%00+00
Green 3.9%1 7.3%00+01
Other 1.4%0 1.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Oxford East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Chesham and Amersham, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Worthing East and Shoreham (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Canterbury (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

LAB
Seats
CON
Seats
SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
Reform
%
Green
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2019
Win
Pred
Win
71509Oxford East Anneliese Dodds78,30363.011.261.18.38.69.90.01.0LABLAB
76504Slough Tan Dhesi86,81858.816.665.63.98.64.10.01.2LABLAB
90490Hove Peter Kyle74,31375.915.362.24.58.19.00.00.9LABLAB
116464Southampton Test Alan Whitehead70,11664.217.360.34.79.56.90.01.3LABLAB
138442Brighton Kemptown Lloyd Russell-Moyle69,83369.518.458.94.08.79.00.00.9LABLAB
180400Portsmouth South Stephen Morgan74,18663.917.153.012.010.26.30.01.3LABLAB
202378Reading East Matt Rodda77,15272.521.754.06.09.18.00.01.1LABLAB
227353Southampton Itchen Royston Smith72,29965.625.054.24.49.46.00.01.0CONLAB
243336Brighton Pavilion Caroline Lucas79,05773.49.536.25.37.240.80.01.1GreenGreen
247333Canterbury Rosie Duffield80,20375.024.650.96.59.97.20.00.8LABLAB
259321Milton Keynes South Iain Stewart96,36366.426.051.26.19.85.90.01.0CONLAB
272308Milton Keynes North Ben Everitt91,54568.326.149.67.110.06.30.00.8CONLAB
275305Reading West Alok Sharma74,13768.025.749.07.310.26.70.01.0CONLAB
284296Hastings and Rye Sally-Ann Hart80,52467.426.849.16.210.86.10.01.0CONLAB
303277Crawley Henry Smith74,20767.229.850.14.29.35.60.01.0CONLAB
313267Wycombe Steve Baker78,09870.128.046.78.310.05.70.01.2CONLAB
341239Worthing East and Shoreham Tim Loughton75,19470.730.844.46.510.17.20.01.0CONLAB
354226Dover Natalie Elphicke76,35566.433.244.35.510.45.80.00.8CONLAB
356224Basingstoke Maria Miller82,92866.030.541.19.710.66.90.01.2CONLAB
357223Rochester and Strood Kelly Tolhurst82,05663.332.342.85.711.76.30.01.2CONLAB
358222Portsmouth North Penny Mordaunt71,29964.430.540.88.312.56.30.01.7CONLAB
359221Thanet South Craig Mackinlay73,22365.932.642.65.510.97.50.00.9CONLAB
370210Banbury Victoria Prentis90,11669.830.839.311.710.47.00.00.8CONLAB
382198Gillingham and Rainham Rehman Chishti73,54962.536.142.25.110.05.50.01.1CONLAB
383197Gravesham Adam Holloway73,24264.936.542.44.810.15.40.00.9CONLAB
389191Isle of Wight Bob Seely113,02165.930.535.37.513.711.20.01.7CONLAB
400180Dartford Gareth Johnson82,20965.736.340.16.110.75.80.01.0CONLAB
401179Chatham and Aylesford Tracey Crouch71,64260.536.139.96.011.05.90.01.1CONLAB
417163Aylesbury Rob Butler86,66569.932.634.815.610.35.90.00.8CONLAB
418162Worthing West Peter Bottomley78,58569.535.637.88.510.56.70.00.9CONLAB
421159Bracknell James Sunderland78,97868.835.236.59.910.47.10.00.9CONLAB
423157Sittingbourne and Sheppey Gordon Henderson83,91761.236.137.36.112.86.20.01.6CONLAB
427153Aldershot Leo Docherty72,61766.035.536.510.910.25.90.00.9CONLAB
439141Thanet North Roger Gale72,75666.237.137.06.711.56.60.01.1CONCON
440140Woking Jonathan Lord75,45471.529.228.924.210.26.40.00.9CONCON
441139Wantage David Johnston90,86773.927.627.327.310.86.30.00.7CONCON
442138Runnymede and Weybridge Ben Spencer77,19669.033.733.313.311.07.10.01.6CONCON
447133Epsom and Ewell Chris Grayling81,13873.331.530.715.812.27.70.02.1CONCON
457123Spelthorne Kwasi Kwarteng70,92969.835.133.111.411.87.30.01.3CONCON
459121Tunbridge Wells Greg Clark74,82373.032.029.920.610.95.70.00.9CONCON
467113Ashford Damian Green89,55367.136.133.19.012.38.30.01.3CONCON
469111Folkestone and Hythe Damian Collins88,27266.835.031.69.013.310.00.01.1CONCON
472108Reigate Crispin Blunt74,24271.633.129.315.111.39.80.01.4CONCON
476104Sussex Mid Mims Davies85,14673.731.227.321.510.98.00.01.0CONCON
477102Oxford West and Abingdon Layla Moran76,95176.423.419.241.99.25.60.00.6LIBLIB
48496Wokingham John Redwood83,95373.831.326.426.69.25.80.00.6CONCON
48891Guildford Angela Richardson77,72975.528.623.630.510.35.70.01.3CONLIB
48991Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Nick Gibb77,44666.137.232.110.712.46.30.01.3CONCON
49090Horsham Jeremy Quin86,73072.931.326.123.710.97.30.00.7CONCON
49189Faversham and Kent Mid Helen Whately73,40368.736.831.611.012.07.60.01.0CONCON
49486Gosport Caroline Dinenage73,54165.937.532.012.111.36.00.01.0CONCON
49585Witney Robert Courts83,84573.132.927.323.210.35.70.00.6CONCON
49684Maidstone and The Weald Helen Grant76,10967.934.929.216.911.46.60.00.9CONCON
49783Eastleigh Paul Holmes83,88070.329.623.829.011.05.80.00.8CONCON
50575Surrey East Claire Coutinho83,14871.834.027.517.112.67.40.01.4CONCON
50674Chichester Gillian Keegan85,49971.631.925.421.512.18.30.00.8CONCON
50971Bexhill and Battle Huw Merriman81,96372.135.929.313.113.07.80.00.9CONCON
51367Windsor Adam Afriyie75,03871.636.729.714.810.76.80.01.2CONCON
51565Hampshire North West Kit Malthouse83,08370.937.129.216.210.66.20.00.7CONCON
52357Fareham Suella Braverman78,33773.138.429.814.210.56.20.00.9CONCON
52654Maidenhead Theresa May76,66873.735.726.519.810.36.80.00.8CONCON
52753Henley John Howell76,64676.729.820.627.711.89.50.00.7CONCON
52852Surrey South West Jeremy Hunt79,09676.332.523.227.310.55.70.00.9CONCON
52951Havant Alan Mak72,10363.740.531.210.311.15.90.01.0CONCON
53149Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena78,95475.135.625.719.511.26.70.01.2CONCON
53248Esher and Walton Dominic Raab81,18477.731.521.529.610.45.90.01.2CONCON
53545Romsey and Southampton North Caroline Nokes68,22875.333.723.328.29.74.40.00.6CONCON
53743Surrey Heath Michael Gove81,34972.135.124.621.711.06.60.01.0CONCON
53941Tonbridge and Malling Tom Tugendhat79,27871.936.225.615.012.010.40.00.8CONCON
54040Arundel and South Downs Andrew Griffith81,72675.134.123.520.112.19.60.00.6CONCON
54436Wealden Nus Ghani82,99273.435.424.517.212.39.60.01.0CONCON
54733Buckingham Greg Smith83,14676.338.527.518.310.54.80.00.4CONCON
54931Hampshire East Damian Hinds76,47874.435.324.221.411.17.10.00.9CONCON
55030Sevenoaks Laura Trott71,75771.037.926.717.210.96.50.00.8CONCON
55129Newbury Laura Farris83,41471.932.521.028.510.66.70.00.7CONCON
55426New Forest East Julian Lewis73,54969.138.326.416.011.66.80.00.9CONCON
55524Eastbourne Caroline Ansell79,30769.529.516.937.511.04.20.00.8CONLIB
55623Winchester Steve Brine75,58277.928.916.140.29.34.90.00.5CONLIB
56316Lewes Maria Caulfield71,50376.727.713.438.211.58.50.00.8CONLIB
56515Mole Valley Paul Beresford74,66576.533.618.629.610.86.60.00.7CONCON
56812Meon Valley Flick Drummond75,73772.438.823.220.610.66.20.00.6CONCON
5728New Forest West Desmond Swayne70,86671.041.224.614.311.28.00.00.8CONCON
5773Beaconsfield Joy Morrissey77,72074.538.219.423.011.86.50.01.2CONCON
5791Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan72,54276.838.411.936.47.74.90.00.7CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.