South East: Majority Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 54.6%73 51.5%00+073
LAB 28.6%8 25.1%00+08
LIB 10.5%2 17.2%00+02
Brexit 0.0%0 0.9%00+00
Green 3.1%1 3.3%00+01
UKIP 2.3%0 0.0%00+00
Other 1.0%0 2.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Oxford East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Beaconsfield, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Basingstoke (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Portsmouth South (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
49520Oxford East Anneliese Dodds78,36068.819.949.818.
87482Slough Tan Dhesi83,27265.229.852.
99470Hove Peter Kyle74,23677.627.747.813.
130438Brighton Pavilion Caroline Lucas75,48676.417.
135434Southampton Test Alan Whitehead70,19466.830.245.711.
159410Brighton Kemptown Lloyd Russell-Moyle67,89372.533.144.812.
190379Canterbury Rosie Duffield78,13772.740.548.
195374Reading East Matt Rodda75,52273.133.140.615.
213356Portsmouth South Stephen Morgan69,78563.931.336.
265304Wycombe Steve Baker77,08969.446.435.313.
268300Oxford West and Abingdon Layla Moran79,28975.731.818.744.
269300Milton Keynes North Mark Lancaster89,27271.548.735.412.
272297Reading West Alok Sharma74,51869.549.034.613.
274295Hastings and Rye Amber Rudd78,29869.950.635.712.
276293Milton Keynes South Iain Stewart92,49469.749.734.811.
279290Southampton Itchen Royston Smith71,71665.250.535.311.
288281Crawley Henry Smith73,42468.552.535.
299270Guildford Anne Milton75,45473.636.617.
303265Eastbourne Stephen Lloyd78,75472.936.416.338.
308261Worthing East and Shoreham Tim Loughton75,54370.351.430.513.
336233Basingstoke Maria Miller81,87368.353.428.713.
338231Banbury Victoria Prentis83,81873.454.
345224Wantage Ed Vaizey87,73572.551.024.822.
347222Isle of Wight Bob Seely110,69767.357.430.
349220Woking Jonathan Lord76,17072.550.123.523.
352217Tunbridge Wells Greg Clark75,13872.152.625.520.
357212Dover Charlie Elphicke74,56469.756.829.510.
361208Aylesbury David Lidington82,54671.254.426.716.
365204Thanet South Craig Mackinlay72,34268.857.629.310.
378191Wokingham John Redwood79,87974.743.514.336.
380189Esher and Walton Dominic Raab80,93873.942.713.441.
381188Gillingham and Rainham Rehman Chishti72,09367.857.728.410.
383186Worthing West Peter Bottomley77,77770.155.726.313.
385184Romsey and Southampton North Caroline Nokes67,18674.750.420.928.
387182Aldershot Leo Docherty76,20564.
395174Sussex Mid Nicholas Soames83,74773.652.422.
396173Lewes Maria Caulfield70,94776.444.113.938.
399170Witney Robert Courts82,72773.652.522.
400169Buckingham John Bercow79,61666.250.219.717.
403166Reigate Crispin Blunt74,62872.153.923.
406163Eastleigh Mims Davies81,21370.550.419.328.
408161Epsom and Ewell Chris Grayling80,02974.153.722.619.
411158Winchester Steve Brine72,49778.843.812.541.
412157Portsmouth North Penny Mordaunt71,37466.158.226.811.
414155Bracknell Phillip Lee79,19970.656.825.314.
417152Rochester and Strood Kelly Tolhurst82,70265.
418151Gravesham Adam Holloway72,94867.259.828.
431138Henley John Howell74,98776.153.220.323.
439130Thanet North Roger Gale72,65766.560.026.711.
440129Runnymede and Weybridge Philip Hammond74,88768.956.723.315.
446123Chatham and Aylesford Tracey Crouch70,41963.760.
448121Surrey South West Jeremy Hunt78,04277.453.620.
450119Folkestone and Hythe Damian Collins84,09070.057.823.913.
461108Windsor Adam Afriyie73,59573.355.921.617.
463106Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan71,46577.355.020.621.
465104Horsham Jeremy Quin82,77374.955.120.619.
467102Maidstone and The Weald Helen Grant75,33468.654.920.320.
47099Ashford Damian Green87,39668.559.224.512.
47495Dartford Gareth Johnson78,50669.161.226.310.
47594Spelthorne Kwasi Kwarteng72,64169.059.724.713.
47693Chichester Gillian Keegan84,99670.556.
48485Sittingbourne and Sheppey Gordon Henderson81,71562.961.024.810.
48584Arundel and South Downs Nick Herbert80,76674.657.321.
48782Maidenhead Theresa May76,27676.456.920.519.
49475Hampshire North West Kit Malthouse81,43072.258.722.
49772Fareham Suella Fernandes79,49571.759.622.715.
49871Faversham and Kent Mid Helen Whately76,00865.559.822.813.
49970Newbury Richard Benyon82,92373.453.616.625.
50069Surrey Heath Michael Gove80,53771.857.820.718.
50168Wealden Nus Ghani81,42574.358.321.
50861Hampshire East Damian Hinds74,14874.755.918.
51455Tonbridge and Malling Tom Tugendhat77,23473.759.821.615.
51752Mole Valley Paul Beresford74,54576.154.716.324.
51851Havant Alan Mak72,46463.961.022.412.
52544Gosport Caroline Dinenage73,88667.
52841Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena75,47676.457.
52940Bexhill and Battle Huw Merriman78,51275.761.
53237Surrey East Sam Gyimah82,00472.258.819.516.
53435New Forest East Julian Lewis72,60270.858.819.
53633Sevenoaks Michael Fallon71,06172.160.120.315.
54029Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Nick Gibb75,82767.762.221.611.
54425Meon Valley George Hollingbery74,24673.
55019New Forest West Desmond Swayne68,78772.161.719.616.
55514Beaconsfield Dominic Grieve77,53472.362.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.