South East: Majority Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 54.6%73 31.0%010-1063
LAB 28.6%8 23.0%80+816
LIB 10.5%2 11.2%20+24
UKIP 2.3%0 5.3%00+00
Green 3.1%1 5.0%00+01
ChUK 0.0%0 6.0%00+00
Brexit 0.0%0 16.5%00+00
Minor 1.0%0 1.9%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Oxford East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Buckingham, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Basingstoke (prediction: CON), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Reading East (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
67483Oxford East Anneliese Dodds78,36068.813.647.311.
77473Slough Tan Dhesi83,27265.217.750.
111439Hove Peter Kyle74,23677.619.
142408Southampton Test Alan Whitehead70,19466.819.743.
169381Brighton Kemptown Lloyd Russell-Moyle67,89372.522.
221329Reading East Matt Rodda75,52273.124.637.
243307Portsmouth South Stephen Morgan69,78563.920.330.914.
252297Brighton Pavilion Caroline Lucas75,48676.411.720.54.95.830.20.07.317.70.01.8GreenGreen
258292Southampton Itchen Royston Smith71,71665.
270280Canterbury Rosie Duffield78,13772.726.
273277Hastings and Rye Amber Rudd78,29869.926.
274276Crawley Henry Smith73,42468.528.635.
276274Milton Keynes South Iain Stewart92,49469.726.633.
279271Milton Keynes North Mark Lancaster89,27271.527.
289261Reading West Alok Sharma74,51869.528.
306244Wycombe Steve Baker77,08969.428.531.
317233Worthing East and Shoreham Tim Loughton75,54370.328.
322228Thanet South Craig Mackinlay72,34268.827.
323227Dover Charlie Elphicke74,56469.728.828.
335215Basingstoke Maria Miller81,87368.329.
341209Gravesham Adam Holloway72,94867.229.526.
345205Rochester and Strood Kelly Tolhurst82,70265.028.925.
351199Gillingham and Rainham Rehman Chishti72,09367.830.626.
359191Portsmouth North Penny Mordaunt71,37466.129.425.
364186Chatham and Aylesford Tracey Crouch70,41963.730.
365185Banbury Victoria Prentis83,81873.431.326.
366184Aldershot Leo Docherty76,20564.229.724.
370180Thanet North Roger Gale72,65766.530.
377173Worthing West Peter Bottomley77,77770.
380170Dartford Gareth Johnson78,50669.131.324.
387163Aylesbury David Lidington82,54671.231.424.
390160Folkestone and Hythe Damian Collins84,09070.
399151Spelthorne Kwasi Kwarteng72,64169.031.923.
404146Isle of Wight Bob Seely110,69767.326.417.
409141Ashford Damian Green87,39668.532.
412138Wantage Ed Vaizey87,73572.531.522.
413137Bracknell Phillip Lee79,19970.633.524.
416134Sittingbourne and Sheppey Gordon Henderson81,71562.933.924.
423127Tunbridge Wells Greg Clark75,13872.132.121.910.
425125Woking Jonathan Lord76,17072.531.721.415.
433117Havant Alan Mak72,46463.930.920.
439110Oxford West and Abingdon Layla Moran79,28975.723.412.
441109Eastleigh Mims Davies81,21370.529.217.818.
45397Gosport Caroline Dinenage73,88667.033.321.
45496Sussex Mid Nicholas Soames83,74773.633.020.812.
45595Reigate Crispin Blunt74,62872.132.920.611.
45694Wokingham John Redwood79,87974.734.121.814.
45892Faversham and Kent Mid Helen Whately76,00865.533.320.
46981Maidstone and The Weald Helen Grant75,33468.631.618.813.
47179Runnymede and Weybridge Philip Hammond74,88768.934.321.
47575Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Nick Gibb75,82767.733.420.
48268Epsom and Ewell Chris Grayling80,02974.135.421.
48367Guildford Anne Milton75,45473.632.117.919.
48663Eastbourne Stephen Lloyd78,75472.923.89.338.
48763Witney Robert Courts82,72773.632.818.316.
49159Chichester Gillian Keegan84,99670.533.618.911.
49852Romsey and Southampton North Caroline Nokes67,18674.733.317.717.
49951Hampshire North West Kit Malthouse81,43072.235.219.610.
50050Horsham Jeremy Quin82,77374.934.218.411.
50149Bexhill and Battle Huw Merriman78,51275.735.319.
50347Fareham Suella Fernandes79,49571.736.
50841Lewes Maria Caulfield70,94776.427.511.
51040Wealden Nus Ghani81,42574.335.118.510.
51139Esher and Walton Dominic Raab80,93873.934.918.
51238Tonbridge and Malling Tom Tugendhat77,23473.735.418.
51337Arundel and South Downs Nick Herbert80,76674.635.718.
51535Henley John Howell74,98776.134.817.713.
51733Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan71,46577.335.618.312.
51931Windsor Adam Afriyie73,59573.337.520.
52129Sevenoaks Michael Fallon71,06172.135.717.
52128Winchester Steve Brine72,49778.828.610.733.
52426Surrey East Sam Gyimah82,00472.235.817.510.
52624New Forest East Julian Lewis72,60270.835.817.412.
52921Beaconsfield Dominic Grieve77,53472.337.518.
53020Surrey Heath Michael Gove80,53771.837.218.510.
53515Maidenhead Theresa May76,27676.438.318.
53812Hampshire East Damian Hinds74,14874.736.815.913.
53911Newbury Richard Benyon82,92373.435.514.517.
5419New Forest West Desmond Swayne68,78772.
5428Meon Valley George Hollingbery74,24673.037.716.410.
5446Mole Valley Paul Beresford74,54576.
5455Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena75,47676.438.616.
5473Surrey South West Jeremy Hunt78,04277.441.715.612.
5491Buckingham John Bercow79,61666.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.