South East: Majority Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	54.0%	74	29.9%	0	36	-36	38
LAB	22.1%	8	33.6%	30	0	+30	38
LIB	18.2%	1	16.5%	6	0	+6	7
Reform	0.3%	0	12.9%	0	0	+0	0
Green	3.9%	1	6.7%	0	0	+0	1
Other	1.4%	0	0.4%	0	0	+0	0

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Oxford East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Chesham and Amersham, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Worthing East and Shoreham (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Brighton Pavilion (prediction: Green).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

LAB Seats	CON Seats	Seat	MP at 2019	Electorate	Turn Out%	CON %	LAB %	LIB %	Reform %	Green %	MIN %	OTH %	2019 Win	Pred Win
71	495	Oxford East	Anneliese Dodds	78,303	63.0	9.4	61.5	8.6	11.1	9.0	0.0	0.4	LAB	LAB
76	490	Slough	Tan Dhesi	86,818	58.8	15.3	66.0	4.1	10.4	3.7	0.0	0.5	LAB	LAB
89	477	Hove	Peter Kyle	74,313	75.9	13.8	62.6	4.8	10.3	8.2	0.0	0.4	LAB	LAB
112	454	Southampton Test	Alan Whitehead	70,116	64.2	15.8	60.7	4.9	11.8	6.2	0.0	0.5	LAB	LAB
139	427	Brighton Kemptown	Lloyd Russell-Moyle	69,833	69.5	17.0	59.3	4.2	10.9	8.1	0.0	0.4	LAB	LAB
177	389	Portsmouth South	Stephen Morgan	74,186	63.9	15.4	53.4	12.4	12.5	5.7	0.0	0.6	LAB	LAB
200	366	Reading East	Matt Rodda	77,152	72.5	20.1	54.4	6.3	11.4	7.2	0.0	0.5	LAB	LAB
225	341	Southampton Itchen	Royston Smith	72,299	65.6	23.6	54.6	4.6	11.4	5.4	0.0	0.4	CON	LAB
238	327	Brighton Pavilion	Caroline Lucas	79,057	73.4	7.9	36.6	5.5	9.6	39.9	0.0	0.4	Green	Green
241	325	Canterbury	Rosie Duffield	80,203	75.0	23.0	51.3	6.8	12.0	6.5	0.0	0.3	LAB	LAB
254	312	Milton Keynes South	Iain Stewart	96,363	66.4	24.4	51.6	6.3	11.9	5.4	0.0	0.4	CON	LAB
268	298	Milton Keynes North	Ben Everitt	91,545	68.3	24.5	50.0	7.4	12.0	5.7	0.0	0.4	CON	LAB
269	297	Reading West	Alok Sharma	74,137	68.0	24.1	49.4	7.6	12.4	6.1	0.0	0.4	CON	LAB
279	287	Hastings and Rye	Sally-Ann Hart	80,524	67.4	25.1	49.6	6.5	12.9	5.6	0.0	0.4	CON	LAB
296	270	Crawley	Henry Smith	74,207	67.2	28.4	50.5	4.4	11.2	5.1	0.0	0.4	CON	LAB
306	260	Wycombe	Steve Baker	78,098	70.1	26.4	47.1	8.6	12.2	5.2	0.0	0.5	CON	LAB
334	232	Worthing East and Shoreham	Tim Loughton	75,194	70.7	29.2	44.8	6.8	12.3	6.5	0.0	0.4	CON	LAB
347	219	Dover	Natalie Elphicke	76,355	66.4	31.7	44.7	5.7	12.3	5.2	0.0	0.3	CON	LAB
349	217	Basingstoke	Maria Miller	82,928	66.0	28.8	41.5	10.0	13.0	6.2	0.0	0.5	CON	LAB
351	215	Rochester and Strood	Kelly Tolhurst	82,056	63.3	30.8	43.3	5.9	13.9	5.7	0.0	0.5	CON	LAB
352	214	Portsmouth North	Penny Mordaunt	71,299	64.4	28.8	41.2	8.6	15.1	5.7	0.0	0.7	CON	LAB
353	213	Thanet South	Craig Mackinlay	73,223	65.9	31.0	43.0	5.8	13.0	6.8	0.0	0.4	CON	LAB
363	203	Banbury	Victoria Prentis	90,116	69.8	29.1	39.7	12.0	12.5	6.3	0.0	0.3	CON	LAB
376	190	Gillingham and Rainham	Rehman Chishti	73,549	62.5	34.6	42.6	5.3	12.0	5.0	0.0	0.5	CON	LAB
378	188	Gravesham	Adam Holloway	73,242	64.9	35.0	42.8	5.0	11.9	4.9	0.0	0.4	CON	LAB
382	184	Isle of Wight	Bob Seely	113,021	65.9	28.8	35.7	7.8	16.7	10.4	0.0	0.7	CON	LAB
395	171	Dartford	Gareth Johnson	82,209	65.7	34.7	40.5	6.4	12.7	5.2	0.0	0.4	CON	LAB
397	169	Chatham and Aylesford	Tracey Crouch	71,642	60.5	34.5	40.3	6.3	13.1	5.3	0.0	0.4	CON	LAB
411	155	Aylesbury	Rob Butler	86,665	69.9	31.0	35.3	15.9	12.2	5.3	0.0	0.3	CON	LAB
412	154	Worthing West	Peter Bottomley	78,585	69.5	34.0	38.2	8.8	12.6	6.1	0.0	0.4	CON	LAB
415	151	Bracknell	James Sunderland	78,978	68.8	33.5	36.9	10.2	12.6	6.4	0.0	0.4	CON	LAB
417	149	Sittingbourne and Sheppey	Gordon Henderson	83,917	61.2	34.4	37.7	6.4	15.3	5.6	0.0	0.7	CON	LAB
420	146	Aldershot	Leo Docherty	72,617	66.0	33.8	37.0	11.2	12.3	5.3	0.0	0.4	CON	LAB
433	133	Thanet North	Roger Gale	72,756	66.2	35.4	37.4	7.0	13.7	6.0	0.0	0.5	CON	LAB
434	132	Woking	Jonathan Lord	75,454	71.5	27.6	29.4	24.6	12.3	5.8	0.0	0.4	CON	LAB
435	131	Runnymede and Weybridge	Ben Spencer	77,196	69.0	31.9	33.7	13.6	13.6	6.5	0.0	0.7	CON	LAB
436	130	Wantage	David Johnston	90,867	73.9	25.9	27.7	27.6	12.7	5.7	0.0	0.3	CON	LAB
441	125	Epsom and Ewell	Chris Grayling	81,138	73.3	29.7	31.1	16.2	15.2	7.0	0.0	0.9	CON	LAB
450	116	Spelthorne	Kwasi Kwarteng	70,929	69.8	33.4	33.5	11.7	14.3	6.6	0.0	0.6	CON	LAB
453	113	Tunbridge Wells	Greg Clark	74,823	73.0	30.4	30.3	20.9	12.9	5.2	0.0	0.4	CON	CON
460	106	Ashford	Damian Green	89,553	67.1	34.3	33.5	9.4	14.8	7.5	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
462	104	Folkestone and Hythe	Damian Collins	88,272	66.8	33.3	32.0	9.3	15.8	9.1	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
465	101	Reigate	Crispin Blunt	74,242	71.6	31.3	29.7	15.4	14.1	8.9	0.0	0.6	CON	CON
469	97	Sussex Mid	Mims Davies	85,146	73.7	29.5	27.8	21.8	13.2	7.3	0.0	0.4	CON	CON
470	95	Oxford West and Abingdon	Layla Moran	76,951	76.4	21.8	19.6	42.2	11.0	5.1	0.0	0.3	LIB	LIB
479	87	Wokingham	John Redwood	83,953	73.8	29.7	26.8	26.9	11.1	5.3	0.0	0.3	CON	CON
479	86	Guildford	Angela Richardson	77,729	75.5	26.9	24.0	30.8	12.6	5.2	0.0	0.6	CON	LIB
482	84	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	Nick Gibb	77,446	66.1	35.5	32.5	11.0	14.7	5.7	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
483	83	Faversham and Kent Mid	Helen Whately	73,403	68.7	35.1	32.0	11.3	14.3	6.9	0.0	0.4	CON	CON
484	82	Horsham	Jeremy Quin	86,730	72.9	29.6	26.5	24.0	13.0	6.6	0.0	0.3	CON	CON
487	79	Gosport	Caroline Dinenage	73,541	65.9	35.9	32.4	12.5	13.4	5.5	0.0	0.4	CON	CON
489	77	Witney	Robert Courts	83,845	73.1	31.3	27.7	23.6	12.1	5.2	0.0	0.2	CON	CON
490	76	Maidstone and The Weald	Helen Grant	76,109	67.9	33.3	29.6	17.3	13.5	6.0	0.0	0.4	CON	CON
490	75	Eastleigh	Paul Holmes	83,880	70.3	28.0	24.2	29.3	12.9	5.2	0.0	0.3	CON	LIB
497	69	Surrey East	Claire Coutinho	83,148	71.8	32.3	27.9	17.4	15.1	6.7	0.0	0.6	CON	CON
500	66	Chichester	Gillian Keegan	85,499	71.6	30.2	25.8	21.8	14.4	7.5	0.0	0.3	CON	CON
501	65	Bexhill and Battle	Huw Merriman	81,963	72.1	34.2	29.7	13.5	15.2	7.1	0.0	0.4	CON	CON
505	61	Windsor	Adam Afriyie	75,038	71.6	35.0	30.1	15.2	13.0	6.1	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
507	59	Hampshire North West	Kit Malthouse	83,083	70.9	35.4	29.6	16.5	12.5	5.6	0.0	0.3	CON	CON
514	52	Fareham	Suella Braverman	78,337	73.1	36.7	30.2	14.5	12.5	5.6	0.0	0.4	CON	CON
516	50	Maidenhead	Theresa May	76,668	73.7	34.1	26.9	20.1	12.4	6.2	0.0	0.3	CON	CON
517	49	Henley	John Howell	76,646	76.7	28.1	21.0	28.0	14.0	8.6	0.0	0.3	CON	CON
518	48	Surrey South West	Jeremy Hunt	79,096	76.3	30.8	23.6	27.6	12.5	5.1	0.0	0.4	CON	CON
519	47	Havant	Alan Mak	72,103	63.7	38.8	31.6	10.6	13.2	5.3	0.0	0.4	CON	CON
521	45	Hampshire North East	Ranil Jayawardena	78,954	75.1	33.9	26.1	19.9	13.5	6.0	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
521	44	Esher and Walton	Dominic Raab	81,184	77.7	29.8	21.9	29.9	12.6	5.3	0.0	0.5	CON	LIB
524	42	Romsey and Southampton North	Caroline Nokes	68,228	75.3	32.1	23.7	28.6	11.4	4.0	0.0	0.2	CON	CON
525	41	Surrey Heath	Michael Gove	81,349	72.1	33.4	25.0	22.0	13.1	6.0	0.0	0.4	CON	CON
528	38	Tonbridge and Malling	Tom Tugendhat	79,278	71.9	34.5	26.0	15.3	14.3	9.5	0.0	0.4	CON	CON
529	37	Arundel and South Downs	Andrew Griffith	81,726	75.1	32.4	23.9	20.4	14.3	8.7	0.0	0.2	CON	CON
532	34	Wealden	Nus Ghani	82,992	73.4	33.6	24.9	17.5	14.7	8.8	0.0	0.4	CON	CON
534	32	Buckingham	Greg Smith	83,146	76.3	36.9	27.9	18.6	12.1	4.4	0.0	0.2	CON	CON
536	30	Hampshire East	Damian Hinds	76,478	74.4	33.6	24.6	21.8	13.2	6.4	0.0	0.4	CON	CON
537	29	Sevenoaks	Laura Trott	71,757	71.0	36.3	27.1	17.5	12.9	5.9	0.0	0.3	CON	CON
540	26	Newbury	Laura Farris	83,414	71.9	30.9	21.4	28.9	12.5	6.0	0.0	0.3	CON	CON
541	25	New Forest East	Julian Lewis	73,549	69.1	36.7	26.8	16.3	13.8	6.1	0.0	0.4	CON	CON
544	21	Eastbourne	Caroline Ansell	79,307	69.5	27.9	17.3	37.8	12.8	3.8	0.0	0.3	CON	LIB
545	20	Winchester	Steve Brine	75,582	77.9	27.3	16.5	40.5	11.0	4.4	0.0	0.2	CON	LIB
548	17	Lewes	Maria Caulfield	71,503	76.7	26.0	13.8	38.5	13.7	7.6	0.0	0.3	CON	LIB
551	15	Mole Valley	Paul Beresford	74,665	76.5	32.0	19.0	29.9	12.8	6.0	0.0	0.3	CON	CON
554	12	Meon Valley	Flick Drummond	75,737	72.4	37.2	23.6	20.9	12.5	5.6	0.0	0.3	CON	CON
557	9	New Forest West	Desmond Swayne	70,866	71.0	39.5	25.0	14.6	13.4	7.2	0.0	0.3	CON	CON
562	4	Beaconsfield	Joy Morrissey	77,720	74.5	36.5	19.8	23.3	14.0	5.9	0.0	0.5	CON	CON
565	1	Chesham and Amersham	Cheryl Gillan	72,542	76.8	36.8	12.3	36.7	9.5	4.5	0.0	0.3	CON	CON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.