South East: Majority Sorted Seats

South East Prediction

Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 54.0%74 31.6%028-2846
LAB 22.1%8 33.2%240+2432
LIB 18.2%1 16.2%40+45
Reform 0.3%0 10.7%00+00
Green 3.9%1 7.3%00+01
Other 1.4%0 1.0%00+00

This page shows all the seats in South East sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Oxford East, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Chesham and Amersham, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'LAB Seats' and 'CON Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Worthing East and Shoreham (prediction: LAB), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Canterbury (prediction: LAB).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of South East seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2019ElectorateTurn
71509Oxford East Anneliese Dodds78,30363.
76504Slough Tan Dhesi86,81858.816.665.
90490Hove Peter Kyle74,31375.915.362.
116464Southampton Test Alan Whitehead70,11664.217.360.
138442Brighton Kemptown Lloyd Russell-Moyle69,83369.518.458.
180400Portsmouth South Stephen Morgan74,18663.917.
202378Reading East Matt Rodda77,15272.521.754.
227353Southampton Itchen Royston Smith72,29965.625.
243336Brighton Pavilion Caroline Lucas79,05773.49.536.
247333Canterbury Rosie Duffield80,20375.024.650.
259321Milton Keynes South Iain Stewart96,36366.426.
272308Milton Keynes North Ben Everitt91,54568.326.
275305Reading West Alok Sharma74,13768.025.749.07.310.
284296Hastings and Rye Sally-Ann Hart80,52467.426.849.
303277Crawley Henry Smith74,20767.229.850.
313267Wycombe Steve Baker78,09870.
341239Worthing East and Shoreham Tim Loughton75,19470.730.844.46.510.
354226Dover Natalie Elphicke76,35566.433.244.35.510.
356224Basingstoke Maria Miller82,92866.030.541.19.710.
357223Rochester and Strood Kelly Tolhurst82,05663.332.342.85.711.
358222Portsmouth North Penny Mordaunt71,29964.430.540.88.312.
359221Thanet South Craig Mackinlay73,22365.932.642.65.510.
370210Banbury Victoria Prentis90,11669.830.839.311.710.
382198Gillingham and Rainham Rehman Chishti73,54962.536.
383197Gravesham Adam Holloway73,24264.936.542.44.810.
389191Isle of Wight Bob Seely113,02165.930.535.37.513.711.20.01.7CONLAB
400180Dartford Gareth Johnson82,20965.736.340.
401179Chatham and Aylesford Tracey Crouch71,64260.536.
417163Aylesbury Rob Butler86,66569.932.634.815.610.
418162Worthing West Peter Bottomley78,58569.535.637.88.510.
421159Bracknell James Sunderland78,97868.835.236.59.910.
423157Sittingbourne and Sheppey Gordon Henderson83,91761.
427153Aldershot Leo Docherty72,61766.035.536.510.910.
439141Thanet North Roger Gale72,75666.
440140Woking Jonathan Lord75,45471.529.228.924.
441139Wantage David Johnston90,86773.927.627.327.310.
442138Runnymede and Weybridge Ben Spencer77,19669.033.733.313.311.
447133Epsom and Ewell Chris Grayling81,13873.331.530.715.812.
457123Spelthorne Kwasi Kwarteng70,92969.835.133.111.411.
459121Tunbridge Wells Greg Clark74,82373.032.029.920.610.
467113Ashford Damian Green89,55367.
469111Folkestone and Hythe Damian Collins88,27266.835.
472108Reigate Crispin Blunt74,24271.633.129.315.
476104Sussex Mid Mims Davies85,14673.731.227.321.510.
477102Oxford West and Abingdon Layla Moran76,95176.423.419.
48496Wokingham John Redwood83,95373.831.326.426.
48891Guildford Angela Richardson77,72975.528.623.630.510.
48991Bognor Regis and Littlehampton Nick Gibb77,44666.
49090Horsham Jeremy Quin86,73072.931.326.123.710.
49189Faversham and Kent Mid Helen Whately73,40368.736.831.611.
49486Gosport Caroline Dinenage73,54165.937.532.
49585Witney Robert Courts83,84573.132.927.323.
49684Maidstone and The Weald Helen Grant76,10967.934.929.216.911.
49783Eastleigh Paul Holmes83,88070.329.623.829.
50575Surrey East Claire Coutinho83,14871.834.027.517.
50674Chichester Gillian Keegan85,49971.631.925.421.512.
50971Bexhill and Battle Huw Merriman81,96372.135.929.313.
51367Windsor Adam Afriyie75,03871.636.729.714.810.
51565Hampshire North West Kit Malthouse83,08370.937.
52357Fareham Suella Braverman78,33773.138.429.814.
52654Maidenhead Theresa May76,66873.735.726.519.810.
52753Henley John Howell76,64676.729.820.627.711.
52852Surrey South West Jeremy Hunt79,09676.332.523.227.310.
52951Havant Alan Mak72,10363.740.531.210.311.
53149Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena78,95475.135.625.719.511.
53248Esher and Walton Dominic Raab81,18477.731.521.529.610.
53545Romsey and Southampton North Caroline Nokes68,22875.333.723.328.
53743Surrey Heath Michael Gove81,34972.135.124.621.711.
53941Tonbridge and Malling Tom Tugendhat79,27871.936.225.615.
54040Arundel and South Downs Andrew Griffith81,72675.134.123.520.
54436Wealden Nus Ghani82,99273.435.424.517.
54733Buckingham Greg Smith83,14676.338.527.518.310.
54931Hampshire East Damian Hinds76,47874.435.324.221.411.
55030Sevenoaks Laura Trott71,75771.037.926.717.
55129Newbury Laura Farris83,41471.932.521.028.510.
55426New Forest East Julian Lewis73,54969.138.326.416.
55524Eastbourne Caroline Ansell79,30769.529.516.937.511.
55623Winchester Steve Brine75,58277.928.916.
56316Lewes Maria Caulfield71,50376.727.713.438.
56515Mole Valley Paul Beresford74,66576.533.618.629.610.
56812Meon Valley Flick Drummond75,73772.438.823.220.610.
5728New Forest West Desmond Swayne70,86671.041.224.614.311.
5773Beaconsfield Joy Morrissey77,72074.538.219.423.
5791Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan72,54276.838.411.936.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2019. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.