CURRENT PREDICTION

UK General Election Prediction

Our current poll-of-polls predicts what would happen if there were a general election tomorrow.

Full details of our current prediction.
Party2019 Votes2019 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON 44.7%376 21.9%80
LAB 33.0%197 41.4%461
LIB 11.8%8 10.8%63
Reform 2.1%0 14.8%1
Green 2.8%1 5.6%2
SNP 4.0%48 3.5%20
PlaidC 0.5%2 0.7%3

CAMPAIGNING DATA

GE Predictions and Political Attitudes data by seat

Electoral Calculus has launched a new data service for local parties and campaigners. For any seat, you can see detailed predictions and political attitudes at every local neighbourhood in the seat, at affordable cost.

Now includes regular updates of voting intention.

More details

CANDIDATES

Democracy Club

Candidate Lists

Our predictions have now been adjusted to reflect which parties are standing in which seats.

Our thanks to Democracy Club for supplying the candidate data.

COMMENTARY

Tesco interior in Pontefract 2023 (Mtaylor848)

Commentary 7 June 2024

Prof Richard Rose looks at what people do when they are not voting.

POLLING

House of Commons 2019

A Voter's Guide to MRP

Our helpful introduction to MRP polling, how it works, and whether Labour will really win nearly 500 seats.

GENERAL ELECTION 2024

Confused Man, author: Notas de Prensa

Tactical Voting

An in-depth look at tactical voting from our new MRP poll shows that it might cost Labour more seats than the Conservatives.

PSEPHOLOGY

Voter Migration 2019-Feb 2024 (detail)

Voter Migration since 2019

See graphically how voters are moving between the parties, or not voting at all.

LIB DEM PROSPECTS

Strong and Medium Lib Dem Seats in England and Wales

Liberal Democrat Fortunes at the Next General Election

Analysis of recent polling suggests the Lib Dems will do well in their stronghold seats, but Labour has overtaken them in many seats where they came second at the last election.

COMMENTARY

Probability of Parliamentary outcomes January 2024

Commentary January 2024

Prof Richard Rose says that winning core Tory seats is not enough for Rishi Sunak.

COMMENTARY

Probability of Parliamentary outcomes November 2023

Commentary November 2023

Prof Richard Rose asks what effect could a Tory recovery have?

BY-ELECTIONS

George Galloway, by-election winner. Photo: David Hunt from Warwickshire, Wikimedia Commons

By-elections are not good predictors

Analysis of forty years of by-election results shows that most by-election gains are overturned at the next general election.

MRP POLL

MRP Poll August 2023

Labour set for landslide in new MRP poll

Our new MRP poll with Find Out Now, conducted for Channel 4 News, shows Labour set for a landslide election victory. The Conservatives would win less than one hundred seats, and the Liberal Democrats are fighting the SNP for third place.

HETERODOXY POLL

Heterodoxy poll bar chart

Property Chronicle Heterodoxy Poll

Poll on heterodoxical statements for the Property Chronicle in March 2023.

The public want euthanasia legalised and house prices lowered, and don't think net zero will happen by 2050.

NEW WARDS 2023

New Council Wards 2023

New Council Wards 2023

New local council wards are now available for forty-nine councils across England whose ward boundaries have been changed in advance of the local elections in May 2023.

PREDICTION DETAILS

Best predictor of the 2019 UK General Election

Using advanced mathematical regression techniques, coupled with professional but low-cost polling, Electoral Calculus made the most accurate final pre-election forecast in 2019, outperforming all the competition.

See the General Election 2019 case study.

POLLING ANALYSIS

Low Cost MRP Regression

Electoral Calculus has pioneered low-cost MRP regression techniques for high-quality and insightful analysis of polling data.

More details

COMMENTARY

Ed Davey at Peoples' Vote Rally 2019, Henry Compson

Commentary 14 June 2024

Prof Richard Rose says that British voters don't need an EU election to cast a protest vote.

PSEPHOLOGY

Word Cloud from Conservative Defectors

Conservative Defectors in their own words

Our new poll, with Find Out Now, asks people who voted Conservative in 2019, but will not vote Conservative this time, to give their reasons in their own words.

GENERAL ELECTION 2024

Predicted Seats 31 May 2023

New MRP Poll

Our new MRP poll for the Daily Mail, in conjunction with Find Out Now, shows the Conservatives on course for a historic defeat.

COMMENTARY

Probability of Parliamentary outcomes June 2024

Commentary June 2024

Prof Richard Rose says that Rishi Sunak is on a track to nowhere.

GENERAL ELECTION 2024

Rishi Sunak

General Election Outlook

Our outlook for the general election both in terms of politics, and our predictions and services to help you navigate the election campaign.

COMMENTARY

Probability of Parliamentary outcomes May 2024

Commentary May 2024

Prof Richard Rose looks at the upcoming local elections and what real votes will tell us.

COMMENTARY

Probability of Parliamentary outcomes April 2024

Commentary April 2024

Prof Richard Rose says that Reform can cost the Tories more than 100 seats.

COMMENTARY

Probability of Parliamentary outcomes March 2024

Commentary March 2024

Prof Richard Rose looks at the Race for Third Place in the Commons.

MRP POLL

Predicted Vote Share Feb 2024

MRP Poll February 2024

New MRP poll for the Daily Mirror shows Labour is likely to get a landslide election victory.

COMMENTARY

Probability of Parliamentary outcomes February 2024

Commentary February 2024

Prof Richard Rose says that Labour is now the party of England.

MODELLING

Lib Dem campaign sign

Modelling smaller parties

New modelling by Electoral Calculus shows how to find those places where the smaller parties are likely to do well.

COMMENTARY

Probability of Parliamentary outcomes December 2023

Commentary December 2023

Prof Richard Rose asks how much can the Tories gain by Reforming their appeal.

Tactical Voting POLL

Tactical Voting Poll September 2023

Tactical Voting Poll September 2023

Our new poll with Find Out Now, conducted for the Independent, shows Labour and the Liberal Democrats likely to benefit from anti-Conservative tactical voting at the next election.

CARS POLL

Public Support and Opposition to traffic-reduction measures

Property Chronicle Poll

Our poll on traffic reduction measures shows that most people are opposed to LTNs, congestion charging and emission zones.

LIVE UPDATES

Recent national opinion polls

Current state of party support nationally as measured by the opinion pollsters. Data are shown in both graphical and tabular form for national polls taken over the last month or so.

POLITICAL MAPS

Norwich South: localities by EU Ref

Data Map

Our uniquely detailed Data Map of Britain shows twelve political and social measures including past votes and political attitudes.

All available at various geographic levels of detail including parliamentary seats, district wards, and individual neighbourhood localities.

HISTORICAL DATA

A unique electoral data archive from 1955

Data includes historical data flat files of UK elections from 1955 to date plus our track record of predictions and much more.

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