Totnes: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation
Totnes: Overview
| Implied MP at 2017: | Sarah Wollaston (CON) |
| County/Area: | Devon (South West) |
| Electorate: | 76,915 |
| Turnout: | 72.9% |
| Party | Implied 2017 Votes | Implied 2017 Share |
|---|---|---|
| CON | 30,421 | 54.3% |
| LAB | 14,638 | 26.1% |
| LIB | 7,522 | 13.4% |
| Green | 2,217 | 4.0% |
| UKIP | 1,246 | 2.2% |
| CON Majority | 15,783 | 28.2% |
See overview of other seats in South West.
Introduction
This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Totnes been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.
In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.
Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.
Calculation method
There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.
Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.
More details of the calculation formulas are available.
Totnes: Map
List of old seats forming part of Totnes
The old seat(s) needed are:
- Devon South West
- Newton Abbot
- Totnes
Old seat: Devon South West
The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Devon South West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.
| Old seat: Devon South West | Transfer-adjusted Results | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Ward | Electorate 2017 | New Seat | CON Votes | LAB Votes | LIB Votes | UKIP Votes | Green Votes | NAT Votes | MIN Votes | OTH Votes | Total Votes |
| Plymouth | Plympton Chaddlewood | 5,945 | Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge | 2,648 | 1,795 | 180 | 196 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4,877 |
| Plymouth | Plympton Erle | 6,680 | Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge | 2,829 | 1,817 | 311 | 185 | 125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5,267 |
| Plymouth | Plympton St Mary | 9,973 | Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge | 4,602 | 2,313 | 290 | 266 | 182 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7,653 |
| Plymouth | Plymstock Dunstone | 9,465 | Plymouth Sutton and Devonport | 4,256 | 2,242 | 398 | 264 | 149 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7,309 |
| Plymouth | Plymstock Radford | 9,800 | Plymouth Sutton and Devonport | 4,251 | 2,534 | 287 | 268 | 97 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7,437 |
| South Hams | Bickleigh and Cornwood | 2,197 | Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge | 1,097 | 371 | 108 | 24 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,640 |
| South Hams | Charterlands | 2,217 | Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge | 1,143 | 377 | 43 | 23 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,631 |
| South Hams | Ermington and Ugborough | 2,195 | Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge | 1,010 | 359 | 122 | 20 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,549 |
| South Hams | Ivybridge East | 4,201 | Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge | 1,883 | 1,018 | 311 | 110 | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3,409 |
| South Hams | Ivybridge West | 4,634 | Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge | 2,444 | 948 | 131 | 60 | 96 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3,679 |
| South Hams | Loddiswell and Aveton Gifford | 763 | Totnes | 375 | 122 | 14 | 7 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 533 |
| South Hams | Newton and Yealmpton | 4,785 | Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge | 2,180 | 802 | 286 | 45 | 94 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3,407 |
| South Hams | Wembury and Brixton | 3,664 | Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge | 1,761 | 600 | 184 | 39 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2,646 |
| South Hams | Woolwell | 2,215 | Plympton, Tavistock and Ivybridge | 1,156 | 519 | 65 | 32 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,819 |
| Total | 68,734 | 31,635 | 15,817 | 2,730 | 1,539 | 1,135 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 52,856 | ||
The full details of these calculations are given on the Devon South West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".
Old seat: Newton Abbot
The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Newton Abbot, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.
| Old seat: Newton Abbot | Transfer-adjusted Results | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Ward | Electorate 2017 | New Seat | CON Votes | LAB Votes | LIB Votes | UKIP Votes | Green Votes | NAT Votes | MIN Votes | OTH Votes | Total Votes |
| Teignbridge | Ambrook | 4,767 | Totnes | 2,263 | 756 | 648 | 0 | 93 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3,760 |
| Teignbridge | Bishopsteignton | 2,171 | Newton Abbot | 927 | 268 | 335 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,560 |
| Teignbridge | Bradley | 4,421 | Newton Abbot | 1,799 | 675 | 489 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2,990 |
| Teignbridge | Buckland and Milber | 5,546 | Newton Abbot | 1,979 | 1,045 | 1,155 | 0 | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4,265 |
| Teignbridge | Bushell | 4,992 | Newton Abbot | 2,029 | 1,025 | 1,030 | 0 | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4,166 |
| Teignbridge | College | 3,914 | Newton Abbot | 1,564 | 726 | 767 | 0 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3,132 |
| Teignbridge | Dawlish Central and North East | 7,003 | Newton Abbot | 2,807 | 1,176 | 813 | 0 | 114 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4,910 |
| Teignbridge | Dawlish South West | 3,909 | Newton Abbot | 1,869 | 689 | 411 | 0 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3,034 |
| Teignbridge | Ipplepen | 2,056 | Totnes | 812 | 265 | 390 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,480 |
| Teignbridge | Kenton with Starcross | 2,356 | Newton Abbot | 910 | 380 | 501 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,831 |
| Teignbridge | Kerswell-with-Combe | 4,634 | Newton Abbot | 1,914 | 687 | 836 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3,470 |
| Teignbridge | Kingsteignton East | 4,568 | Newton Abbot | 2,136 | 879 | 506 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3,553 |
| Teignbridge | Kingsteignton West | 4,134 | Newton Abbot | 1,622 | 682 | 822 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3,157 |
| Teignbridge | Shaldon and Stokeinteignhead | 1,986 | Newton Abbot | 1,090 | 212 | 178 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,494 |
| Teignbridge | Teignmouth Central | 3,732 | Newton Abbot | 1,822 | 644 | 507 | 0 | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3,037 |
| Teignbridge | Teignmouth East | 3,959 | Newton Abbot | 1,689 | 604 | 447 | 0 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2,801 |
| Teignbridge | Teignmouth West | 3,748 | Newton Abbot | 1,403 | 761 | 766 | 0 | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2,997 |
| Total | 67,896 | 28,635 | 11,474 | 10,601 | 0 | 927 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 51,637 | ||
The full details of these calculations are given on the Newton Abbot seat details page. Click on "Show workings".
Old seat: Totnes
The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Totnes, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.
| Old seat: Totnes | Transfer-adjusted Results | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Ward | Electorate 2017 | New Seat | CON Votes | LAB Votes | LIB Votes | UKIP Votes | Green Votes | NAT Votes | MIN Votes | OTH Votes | Total Votes |
| South Hams | Allington and Strete | 2,306 | Totnes | 1,149 | 308 | 136 | 21 | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,685 |
| South Hams | Blackawton and Stoke Fleming | 1,808 | Totnes | 895 | 258 | 106 | 16 | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,332 |
| South Hams | Dartington and Staverton | 1,984 | Totnes | 858 | 426 | 175 | 19 | 99 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,577 |
| South Hams | Dartmouth and East Dart | 6,216 | Totnes | 2,936 | 1,309 | 472 | 71 | 124 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4,912 |
| South Hams | Kingsbridge | 4,454 | Totnes | 2,025 | 827 | 526 | 50 | 158 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3,586 |
| South Hams | Loddiswell and Aveton Gifford | 1,291 | Totnes | 589 | 174 | 77 | 11 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 891 |
| South Hams | Marldon and Littlehempston | 2,293 | Totnes | 1,028 | 311 | 218 | 23 | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,646 |
| South Hams | Salcombe and Thurlestone | 3,958 | Totnes | 2,245 | 506 | 257 | 45 | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3,124 |
| South Hams | South Brent | 4,075 | Totnes | 1,818 | 792 | 271 | 36 | 138 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3,055 |
| South Hams | Stokenham | 2,146 | Totnes | 788 | 292 | 350 | 21 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,510 |
| South Hams | Totnes | 6,364 | Totnes | 1,906 | 1,872 | 704 | 140 | 277 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4,899 |
| South Hams | West Dart | 2,016 | Totnes | 895 | 305 | 227 | 16 | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,517 |
| Torbay | Berry Head-with-Furzeham | 7,494 | Totnes | 2,670 | 1,721 | 725 | 245 | 299 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5,660 |
| Torbay | Blatchcombe | 7,800 | Totnes | 2,782 | 2,130 | 980 | 213 | 264 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6,369 |
| Torbay | Churston-with-Galmpton | 5,578 | Totnes | 2,303 | 840 | 627 | 137 | 126 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4,033 |
| Torbay | St Mary's-with-Summercombe | 5,620 | Totnes | 2,084 | 1,424 | 619 | 175 | 173 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4,475 |
| Total | 65,403 | 26,971 | 13,495 | 6,470 | 1,239 | 2,096 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50,271 | ||
The full details of these calculations are given on the Totnes seat details page. Click on "Show workings".
New seat: Totnes
The new seat of Totnes is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.
| New seat: Totnes | ||||||||||||
| District | Ward | Electorate 2017 | Old Seat | CON Votes | LAB Votes | LIB Votes | UKIP Votes | Green Votes | NAT Votes | MIN Votes | OTH Votes | Total Votes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Hams | Allington and Strete | 2,309 | Totnes | 1,149 | 308 | 136 | 21 | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,685 |
| South Hams | Blackawton and Stoke Fleming | 1,827 | Totnes | 895 | 258 | 106 | 16 | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,332 |
| South Hams | Dartington and Staverton | 2,162 | Totnes | 858 | 426 | 175 | 19 | 99 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,577 |
| South Hams | Dartmouth and East Dart | 6,734 | Totnes | 2,936 | 1,309 | 472 | 71 | 124 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4,912 |
| South Hams | Kingsbridge | 4,914 | Totnes | 2,025 | 827 | 526 | 50 | 158 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3,586 |
| South Hams | Loddiswell and Aveton Gifford | 720 | Devon South West | 375 | 122 | 14 | 7 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 533 |
| South Hams | Loddiswell and Aveton Gifford | 1,221 | Totnes | 589 | 174 | 77 | 11 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 891 |
| South Hams | Marldon and Littlehempston | 2,255 | Totnes | 1,028 | 311 | 218 | 23 | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,646 |
| South Hams | Salcombe and Thurlestone | 4,283 | Totnes | 2,245 | 506 | 257 | 45 | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3,124 |
| South Hams | South Brent | 4,188 | Totnes | 1,818 | 792 | 271 | 36 | 138 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3,055 |
| South Hams | Stokenham | 2,071 | Totnes | 788 | 292 | 350 | 21 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,510 |
| South Hams | Totnes | 6,717 | Totnes | 1,906 | 1,872 | 704 | 140 | 277 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4,899 |
| South Hams | West Dart | 2,080 | Totnes | 895 | 305 | 227 | 16 | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,517 |
| Teignbridge | Ambrook | 5,223 | Newton Abbot | 2,263 | 756 | 648 | 0 | 93 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3,760 |
| Teignbridge | Ipplepen | 2,057 | Newton Abbot | 812 | 265 | 390 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,480 |
| Torbay | Berry Head-with-Furzeham | 7,759 | Totnes | 2,670 | 1,721 | 725 | 245 | 299 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5,660 |
| Torbay | Blatchcombe | 8,731 | Totnes | 2,782 | 2,130 | 980 | 213 | 264 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6,369 |
| Torbay | Churston-with-Galmpton | 5,529 | Totnes | 2,303 | 840 | 627 | 137 | 126 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4,033 |
| Torbay | St Mary's-with-Summercombe | 6,135 | Totnes | 2,084 | 1,424 | 619 | 175 | 173 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4,475 |
| Total | 76,915 | 30,421 | 14,638 | 7,522 | 1,246 | 2,217 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 56,044 | ||
And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Totnes. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.
© 2025 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (11-May-2025 10:43, Py3L, sc1016)
SERVICES
Affordable MRP Regression Polling and Consultancy
We're a quantitative political consultancy specialising in analysis and models for electoral and market research projects. Discover how we can work together.
LOCAL PREDICTIONS
Postcode Lookup
Find your seat, and see its predictions, ward-level mapping and demographics.
Enter your postcode:
PREDICTION MAPS
Interactive Election Maps
Interactive maps available for both Equal Population and Geographical Predictions.
View mapsUSER-DEFINED POLL
Make Your Prediction
Make your own predictions both for the entire country and for any particular Westminster constituency in England, Scotland and Wales.
Make your predictionEMAIL UPDATES
Want To Stay Updated?
Receive an e-mail notification every time the site is updated.
You can unsubscribe from our emails at any time. By proceeding you agree to our email terms and conditions and privacy policy.
