Vulnerable Seats

Current Prediction: Reform short 81 of majority

Party2024 Votes2024 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 24.4%121 21.4%3057-2794
LAB 34.7%412 23.4%1236-235177
LIB 12.6%72 13.7%012-1260
Reform 14.7%5 25.5%2400+240245
Green 6.9%4 9.6%00+04
SNP 2.6%9 2.9%340+3443
PlaidC 0.7%4 0.8%00+04
Other 3.5%5 2.8%11+05
SF 7 00+07
DUP 5 00+05
SDLP 2 00+02
UUP 1 00+01
Alliance 1 00+01
TUV 1 00+01
NI Other 1 00+01

See also the full majority-sorted list of seats, including vulnerables.

List of predicted seat changes

SeatCounty/AreaPredicted Change  MP as at 2024
Aberafan MaestegWest GlamorganReformgain fromLABStephen Kinnock
Airdrie and ShottsGlasgow areaSNPgain fromLABKenneth Stevenson
Aldridge-BrownhillsBlack CountryReformgain fromCONWendy Morton
Alloa and GrangemouthCentralSNPgain fromLABBrian Leishman
Alyn and DeesideClwydReformgain fromLABMark Tami
Amber ValleyDerbyshireReformgain fromLABLinsey Farnsworth
AshfordKentReformgain fromLABSojan Joseph
Ashton-under-LyneEastern ManchesterReformgain fromLABAngela Rayner
AylesburyBuckinghamshireReformgain fromLABLaura Elizabeth Kyrke-Smith
Ayr, Carrick and CumnockAyrshire and LanarkSNPgain fromLABElaine Stewart
Ayrshire CentralAyrshire and LanarkSNPgain fromLABAlan Gemmell
Ayrshire North and ArranAyrshire and LanarkSNPgain fromLABIrene Campbell
Bangor AberconwyClwydCONgain fromLABClaire Hughes
Barnsley NorthSouth YorkshireReformgain fromLABDan Jarvis
Barnsley SouthSouth YorkshireReformgain fromLABStephanie Peacock
Barrow and FurnessCumbriaReformgain fromLABMichelle Scrogham
Basildon and BillericayEssexReformgain fromCONRichard John Holden
BassetlawNottinghamshireReformgain fromLABJo White
Bathgate and LinlithgowEdinburgh areaSNPgain fromLABKirsteen Sullivan
Bedfordshire MidBedfordshireReformgain fromCONBlake Stephenson
Beverley and HoldernessHumber areaReformgain fromCONGraham Stuart
Bexleyheath and CrayfordBexleyReformgain fromLABDaniel Francis
Birmingham ErdingtonBirminghamReformgain fromLABPaulette Hamilton
Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull NorthBirminghamReformgain fromLABLiam Byrne
Birmingham NorthfieldBirminghamReformgain fromLABLaurence Turner
Birmingham Perry BarrBirminghamLABgain fromMINAyoub Khan
Bishop AucklandDurhamReformgain fromLABSam Rushworth
Blackley and Middleton SouthCentral ManchesterReformgain fromLABGraham Stringer
Blackpool North and FleetwoodLancashireReformgain fromLABLorraine Beavers
Blackpool SouthLancashireReformgain fromLABChris Webb
Blyth and AshingtonNorthumberlandReformgain fromLABIan Lavery
Bognor Regis and LittlehamptonWest SussexReformgain fromCONAli Griffiths
BolsoverDerbyshireReformgain fromLABNatalie Fleet
Bolton North EastWestern ManchesterReformgain fromLABKirith Entwistle
Bolton South and WalkdenWestern ManchesterReformgain fromLABYasmin Qureshi
Bolton WestWestern ManchesterReformgain fromLABPhil Brickell
Bournemouth WestDorsetReformgain fromLABJessica Toale
BracknellBerkshireCONgain fromLABPeter Swallow
Bradford SouthWest YorkshireReformgain fromLABJudith Cummins
Bradford WestWest YorkshireMINgain fromLABNaz Shah
BraintreeEssexReformgain fromCONJames Cleverly
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm TawePowysReformgain fromLIBDavid Chadwick
Brentwood and OngarEssexReformgain fromCONAlex Burghart
BridgendMid GlamorganReformgain fromLABChris Elmore
BridgwaterSomersetReformgain fromCONAshley Fox
Bridlington and the WoldsHumber areaReformgain fromCONCharlie Dewhirst
Brigg and ImminghamHumber areaReformgain fromCONMartin Vickers
Broadland and FakenhamNorfolkReformgain fromCONJerome Mayhew
BroxbourneHertfordshireReformgain fromCONLewis Christopher Cocking
BroxtoweNottinghamshireReformgain fromLABJuliet Campbell
Buckingham and BletchleyBuckinghamshireReformgain fromLABCallum Anderson
BurnleyLancashireReformgain fromLABOliver Ryan
Burton and UttoxeterStaffordshireReformgain fromLABJacob Collier
Bury NorthWestern ManchesterReformgain fromLABJames Frith
Bury SouthWestern ManchesterReformgain fromLABChristian Wakeford
Bury St Edmunds and StowmarketSuffolkReformgain fromLABPeter Prinsley
CaerphillyGwentReformgain fromLABChris Evans
Calder ValleyWest YorkshireReformgain fromLABJosh Fenton-Glynn
Camborne and RedruthCornwallReformgain fromLABPerran Moon
Cambridgeshire North EastCambridgeshireReformgain fromCONSteve Barclay
Cambridgeshire North WestCambridgeshireReformgain fromLABSam Carling
Cannock ChaseStaffordshireReformgain fromLABJosh Newbury
CarlisleCumbriaReformgain fromLABJulie Minns
Castle PointEssexReformgain fromCONRebecca Harris
Chatham and AylesfordKentReformgain fromLABTristan Osborne
ChelmsfordEssexCONgain fromLIBMarie Goldman
Chelsea and FulhamHammersmith and FulhamCONgain fromLABBen Coleman
Cheshire MidCheshireReformgain fromLABAndrew Graham Cooper
Clwyd EastClwydCONgain fromLABBecky Gittins
Clwyd NorthClwydCONgain fromLABGill German
Coatbridge and BellshillGlasgow areaSNPgain fromLABFrank McNally
Colne ValleyWest YorkshireReformgain fromLABPaul Davies
CongletonCheshireReformgain fromLABSarah Alison Russell
Corby and East NorthamptonshireNorthamptonshireReformgain fromLABLee Barron
Cornwall South EastCornwallReformgain fromLABAnna Gelderd
Cowdenbeath and KirkcaldyFifeSNPgain fromLABMelanie Ward
CrawleyWest SussexReformgain fromLABPeter Lamb
Crewe and NantwichCheshireReformgain fromLABConnor Naismith
Cumbernauld and KirkintillochGlasgow areaSNPgain fromLABKatrina Murray
Dagenham and RainhamBarking and DagenhamReformgain fromLABMargaret Mullane
DarlingtonDurhamReformgain fromLABLola McEvoy
DartfordKentReformgain fromLABJim Dickson
DaventryNorthamptonshireReformgain fromCONStuart Andrew
Derby NorthDerbyshireReformgain fromLABCatherine Atkinson
Derby SouthDerbyshireReformgain fromLABBaggy Shanker
Derbyshire DalesDerbyshireReformgain fromLABJohn Michael Whitby
Derbyshire MidDerbyshireReformgain fromLABJonathan Peter Tom Davies
Derbyshire North EastDerbyshireReformgain fromLABLouise Elizabeth Jones
Derbyshire SouthDerbyshireReformgain fromLABSamantha Niblett
Devon CentralDevonReformgain fromCONMel Stride
Doncaster CentralSouth YorkshireReformgain fromLABSally Jameson
Doncaster East and the Isle of AxholmeSouth YorkshireReformgain fromLABLee Pitcher
Dorset Mid and North PooleDorsetCONgain fromLIBVikki Slade
Dorset SouthDorsetReformgain fromLABLloyd Hatton
Dover and DealKentReformgain fromLABMike Tapp
DudleyBlack CountryReformgain fromLABSonia Kumar
Dunbartonshire WestGlasgow areaSNPgain fromLABDouglas McAllister
Dunfermline and DollarFifeSNPgain fromLABGraeme Downie
Dunstable and Leighton BuzzardBedfordshireCONgain fromLABAlex Mayer
Durham NorthDurhamReformgain fromLABLuke Akehurst
Earley and WoodleyBerkshireCONgain fromLABYuan Yang
EasingtonDurhamReformgain fromLABGrahame Morris
East Kilbride and StrathavenAyrshire and LanarkSNPgain fromLABJoani Reid
EastleighHampshireCONgain fromLIBLiz Jarvis
Edinburgh East and MusselburghEdinburgh areaSNPgain fromLABChris Murray
Edinburgh North and LeithEdinburgh areaSNPgain fromLABTracy Gilbert
Edinburgh South WestEdinburgh areaSNPgain fromLABScott Arthur
Ely and East CambridgeshireCambridgeshireCONgain fromLIBCharlotte Cane
ErewashDerbyshireReformgain fromLABAdam Thompson
Exmouth and Exeter EastDevonReformgain fromCONDavid George Reed
FalkirkCentralSNPgain fromLABEuan Stainbank
Faversham and Mid KentKentReformgain fromCONHelen Whately
Folkestone and HytheKentReformgain fromLABTony Vaughan
Forest of DeanGloucestershireReformgain fromLABMatt Bishop
FyldeLancashireReformgain fromCONAndrew Snowden
GainsboroughLincolnshireReformgain fromCONSir Edward Leigh
Gateshead Central and WhickhamNewcastle areaReformgain fromLABMark Ferguson
GedlingNottinghamshireReformgain fromLABMichael Payne
Gillingham and RainhamKentReformgain fromLABNaushabah Khan
Glasgow EastGlasgow areaSNPgain fromLABJohn Grady
Glasgow NorthGlasgow areaSNPgain fromLABMartin Rhodes
Glasgow North EastGlasgow areaSNPgain fromLABMaureen Burke
Glasgow SouthGlasgow areaSNPgain fromLABGordon McKee
Glasgow South WestGlasgow areaSNPgain fromLABZubir Ahmed
Glasgow WestGlasgow areaSNPgain fromLABPatricia Ferguson
Glenrothes and Mid FifeFifeSNPgain fromLABRichard Baker
GloucesterGloucestershireReformgain fromLABAlex McIntyre
Goole and PocklingtonHumber areaReformgain fromCONDavid Davis
Gordon and BuchanGrampianSNPgain fromCONHarriet Cross
Grantham and BourneLincolnshireReformgain fromCONGareth Davies
GraveshamKentReformgain fromLABLauren Sullivan
Great Grimsby and CleethorpesHumber areaReformgain fromLABMelanie Onn
HalesowenBlack CountryReformgain fromLABAlex Ballinger
HalifaxWest YorkshireReformgain fromLABKate Alexandra Dearden
Hampshire North EastHampshireCONgain fromLIBAlex Brewer
HarlowEssexReformgain fromLABChristopher John Vince
HartlepoolTeessideReformgain fromLABJonathan Brash
Harwich and North EssexEssexReformgain fromCONBernard Jenkin
HavantHampshireReformgain fromCONAlan Mak
Hemel HempsteadHertfordshireReformgain fromLABDavid Taylor
HendonBarnetCONgain fromLABDavid Pinto-Duschinsky
Hereford and South HerefordshireHereford and WorcestershireReformgain fromCONJesse Norman
Herne Bay and SandwichKentReformgain fromCONRoger Gale
Hertfordshire North EastHertfordshireCONgain fromLABChris Hinchliff
HexhamNorthumberlandCONgain fromLABJoe Morris
Heywood and Middleton NorthEastern ManchesterReformgain fromLABElsie Jane Blundell
Hinckley and BosworthLeicestershireReformgain fromCONLuke Evans
Hornchurch and UpminsterHaveringReformgain fromCONJulia Lopez
HorshamWest SussexCONgain fromLIBJohn Milne
Houghton and Sunderland SouthNewcastle areaReformgain fromLABBridget Phillipson
HuddersfieldWest YorkshireReformgain fromLABHarpreet Uppal
Hull EastHumber areaReformgain fromLABKarl Turner
Hull North and CottinghamHumber areaReformgain fromLABDiana Johnson
Hull West and HaltempriceHumber areaReformgain fromLABEmma Hardy
HyndburnLancashireReformgain fromLABSarah Smith
Inverclyde and Renfrewshire WestGlasgow areaSNPgain fromLABMartin McCluskey
Isle of Wight EastHampshireReformgain fromCONJoe Robertson
Isle of Wight WestHampshireReformgain fromLABRichard Quigley
Jarrow and Gateshead EastNewcastle areaReformgain fromLABKate Osborne
KetteringNorthamptonshireReformgain fromLABRosie Wrighting
Kilmarnock and LoudounAyrshire and LanarkSNPgain fromLABLillian Jones
Lancaster and WyreLancashireReformgain fromLABCat Smith
Leeds EastWest YorkshireReformgain fromLABRichard Burgon
Leeds South West and MorleyWest YorkshireReformgain fromLABMark Sewards
Leicester WestLeicestershireReformgain fromLABLiz Kendall
Leicestershire MidLeicestershireReformgain fromCONPeter Bedford
Leicestershire North WestLeicestershireReformgain fromLABAmanda Hack
Leicestershire SouthLeicestershireReformgain fromCONAlberto Costa
Leigh and AthertonWestern ManchesterReformgain fromLABJo Platt
LichfieldStaffordshireReformgain fromLABDave Robertson
LincolnLincolnshireReformgain fromLABHamish Falconer
LivingstonEdinburgh areaSNPgain fromLABGregor Poynton
LlanelliDyfedReformgain fromLABNia Griffith
LoughboroughLeicestershireReformgain fromLABJeevun Sandher
Louth and HorncastleLincolnshireReformgain fromCONVictoria Atkins
LowestoftSuffolkReformgain fromLABJessica Asato
MaidenheadBerkshireCONgain fromLIBJoshua Peter Reynolds
Maidstone and MallingKentReformgain fromCONHelen Grant
MakerfieldWestern ManchesterReformgain fromLABJosh Simons
MaldonEssexReformgain fromCONJohn Whittingdale
MansfieldNottinghamshireReformgain fromLABSteve Yemm
Melton and SystonLeicestershireReformgain fromCONEdward Argar
Merthyr Tydfil and AberdareMid GlamorganReformgain fromLABGerald Jones
Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastTeessideReformgain fromLABAndy McDonald
Middlesbrough South and East ClevelandTeessideCONgain fromLABLuke Myer
MidlothianEdinburgh areaSNPgain fromLABKirsty McNeill
MonmouthshireGwentCONgain fromLABCatherine Fookes
Montgomeryshire and GlyndwrPowysReformgain fromLABSteve Witherden
Morecambe and LunesdaleLancashireReformgain fromLABLizzi Collinge
Motherwell, Wishaw and CarlukeGlasgow areaSNPgain fromLABPamela Nash
Neath and Swansea EastWest GlamorganReformgain fromLABCarolyn Harris
NewarkNottinghamshireReformgain fromCONRobert Jenrick
NewburyBerkshireCONgain fromLIBLee Raymond James Dillon
Newcastle-under-LymeStaffordshireReformgain fromLABAdam Jogee
Newport EastGwentReformgain fromLABJessica Morden
Newport West and IslwynGwentReformgain fromLABRuth Jones
Newton AbbotDevonReformgain fromLIBMartin Wrigley
Newton Aycliffe and SpennymoorDurhamReformgain fromLABAlan Strickland
Norfolk MidNorfolkReformgain fromCONGeorge Freeman
Norfolk North WestNorfolkReformgain fromCONJames Wild
Norfolk SouthNorfolkReformgain fromLABBen Goldsborough
Norfolk South WestNorfolkReformgain fromLABTerry Jermy
Normanton and HemsworthWest YorkshireReformgain fromLABJon Trickett
Northampton NorthNorthamptonshireReformgain fromLABLucy Rigby
Northampton SouthNorthamptonshireReformgain fromLABMike Reader
Northamptonshire SouthNorthamptonshireReformgain fromCONSarah Bool
Northumberland NorthNorthumberlandReformgain fromLABDavid Smith
Nottingham North and KimberleyNottinghamshireReformgain fromLABAlex Norris
NuneatonWarwickshireReformgain fromLABJodie Gosling
Oldham East and SaddleworthEastern ManchesterReformgain fromLABDebbie Abrahams
Oldham West, Chadderton and RoytonEastern ManchesterReformgain fromLABJim McMahon
Ossett and Denby DaleWest YorkshireReformgain fromLABJade Botterill
Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthGlasgow areaSNPgain fromLABAlison Suzanne Watt Taylor
Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthGlasgow areaSNPgain fromLABJohanna Baxter
Pembrokeshire Mid and SouthDyfedReformgain fromLABHenry Tufnell
Pendle and ClitheroeLancashireReformgain fromLABJonathan James Hinder
Penistone and StocksbridgeSouth YorkshireReformgain fromLABMarie Tidball
Penrith and SolwayCumbriaReformgain fromLABMarkus Campbell-Savours
PeterboroughCambridgeshireReformgain fromLABAndrew Pakes
Plymouth Moor ViewDevonReformgain fromLABFred Thomas
Pontefract, Castleford and KnottingleyWest YorkshireReformgain fromLABYvette Cooper
PooleDorsetCONgain fromLABNeil John Duncan-Jordan
Portsmouth NorthHampshireReformgain fromLABAmanda Martin
PrestonLancashireReformgain fromLABMark Hendrick
Rawmarsh and ConisbroughSouth YorkshireReformgain fromLABJohn Healey
Rayleigh and WickfordEssexReformgain fromCONMark Francois
Reading West and Mid BerkshireBerkshireCONgain fromLABOlivia Bailey
RedcarTeessideReformgain fromLABAnna Turley
RedditchHereford and WorcestershireReformgain fromLABChristopher James Bloore
Renfrewshire EastGlasgow areaSNPgain fromLABBlair McDougall
Rhondda and OgmoreMid GlamorganReformgain fromLABChris Bryant
Ribble ValleyLancashireReformgain fromLABMaya Ellis
RochdaleEastern ManchesterReformgain fromLABPaul Waugh
Rochester and StroodKentReformgain fromLABLauren Rae Edwards
RomfordHaveringReformgain fromCONAndrew Rosindell
Rossendale and DarwenLancashireReformgain fromLABAndy MacNae
Rother ValleySouth YorkshireReformgain fromLABJake Richards
RotherhamSouth YorkshireReformgain fromLABSarah Champion
RugbyWarwickshireCONgain fromLABJohn Anthony Slinger
RutherglenAyrshire and LanarkSNPgain fromLABMichael Shanks
Scarborough and WhitbyNorth YorkshireReformgain fromLABAlison Hume
ScunthorpeHumber areaReformgain fromLABNicholas Dakin
SelbyNorth YorkshireReformgain fromLABKeir Mather
Sherwood ForestNottinghamshireReformgain fromLABMichelle Welsh
Shropshire SouthShropshireReformgain fromCONStuart Anderson
Sittingbourne and SheppeyKentReformgain fromLABKevin McKenna
Skipton and RiponNorth YorkshireReformgain fromCONJulian Smith
Sleaford and North HykehamLincolnshireReformgain fromCONCaroline Johnson
Somerset NorthBristol areaCONgain fromLABSadik Al-Hassan
South Holland and The DeepingsLincolnshireReformgain fromCONJohn Hayes
South RibbleLancashireReformgain fromLABPaul Andrew Foster
South ShieldsNewcastle areaReformgain fromLABEmma Lewell-Buck
Southampton ItchenHampshireReformgain fromLABDarren Paffey
Southend East and RochfordEssexReformgain fromLABBayo Alaba
Southend West and LeighEssexCONgain fromLABDavid Edmund Burton-Sampson
SouthportMerseysideReformgain fromLABPatrick Brian Hurley
Spen ValleyWest YorkshireReformgain fromLABKim Leadbeater
St Austell and NewquayCornwallReformgain fromLABNoah Law
StaffordStaffordshireReformgain fromLABLeigh Ingham
Staffordshire MoorlandsStaffordshireReformgain fromCONKaren Bradley
Stalybridge and HydeEastern ManchesterReformgain fromLABJonathan Reynolds
StevenageHertfordshireReformgain fromLABKevin Bonavia
Stirling and StrathallanCentralSNPgain fromLABChris Kane
Stockton NorthTeessideReformgain fromLABChris McDonald
Stoke-on-Trent CentralStaffordshireReformgain fromLABGareth Snell
Stoke-on-Trent NorthStaffordshireReformgain fromLABDavid Williams
Stoke-on-Trent SouthStaffordshireReformgain fromLABAllison Gardner
StourbridgeBlack CountryReformgain fromLABCat Eccles
Suffolk Central and North IpswichSuffolkReformgain fromCONPatrick Spencer
Suffolk CoastalSuffolkReformgain fromLABJenny Riddell-Carpenter
Suffolk SouthSuffolkReformgain fromCONJames Cartlidge
Suffolk WestSuffolkReformgain fromCONNick Timothy
Sunderland CentralNewcastle areaReformgain fromLABLewis Atkinson
Swindon NorthWiltshireCONgain fromLABWill Stone
TamworthStaffordshireReformgain fromLABSarah Edwards
TelfordShropshireReformgain fromLABShaun Davies
Thanet EastKentReformgain fromLABPolly Billington
Thirsk and MaltonNorth YorkshireReformgain fromCONKevin Hollinrake
Thornbury and YateBristol areaCONgain fromLIBClaire Young
ThurrockEssexReformgain fromLABJennifer Craft
Tipton and WednesburyBlack CountryReformgain fromLABAntonia Bance
TorbayDevonReformgain fromLIBSteve Darling
TorfaenGwentReformgain fromLABNick Thomas-Symonds
Torridge and TavistockDevonReformgain fromCONGeoffrey Cox
Uxbridge and South RuislipHillingdonCONgain fromLABDanny Boy Beales
Vale of GlamorganSouth GlamorganCONgain fromLABKanishka Narayan
Wakefield and RothwellWest YorkshireReformgain fromLABSimon Lightwood
Walsall and BloxwichBlack CountryReformgain fromLABValerie Vaz
Warrington NorthCheshireReformgain fromLABCharlotte Nichols
Warwickshire North and BedworthWarwickshireReformgain fromLABRachel Margaret Taylor
Washington and Gateshead SouthNewcastle areaReformgain fromLABSharon Hodgson
Weald of KentKentReformgain fromCONKatie Jane Lotte Lam
Wellingborough and RushdenNorthamptonshireReformgain fromLABGen Kitchen
West BromwichBlack CountryReformgain fromLABSarah Coombes
Weston-super-MareBristol areaReformgain fromLABDan Aldridge
Whitehaven and WorkingtonCumbriaReformgain fromLABJosh MacAlister
WiganWestern ManchesterReformgain fromLABLisa Nandy
Wiltshire EastWiltshireReformgain fromCONDanny Kruger
WithamEssexReformgain fromCONPriti Patel
Wolverhampton North EastBlack CountryReformgain fromLABSureena Brackenridge
Wolverhampton South EastBlack CountryReformgain fromLABPat McFadden
Worsley and EcclesCentral ManchesterReformgain fromLABMichael Wheeler
Worthing WestWest SussexCONgain fromLABBeccy Cooper
Wrekin, TheShropshireReformgain fromCONMark Pritchard
WrexhamClwydReformgain fromLABAndrew Steven Ranger
Wyre ForestHereford and WorcestershireReformgain fromCONMark Garnier

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2024. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.